Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Colin Cowherd Podcast - Week 18 Games Were AWFUL, NFL Playoff Preview, College Football Playoff Predictions
Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Colin Cowherd
Guest: John Middlekauff (former NFL scout)

Main Theme

Colin Cowherd and John Middlekauff offer a critical, fast-paced breakdown of a dismal NFL Week 18, a spirited preview of the upcoming NFL playoffs, observations on league parity, coaching, and player development, and finish with an in-depth discussion and predictions around the imminent College Football Playoff semifinals.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NFL Week 18: An Ugly Finisher

• Overall Tone: Disappointment and frustration with the quality of play, especially the early Sunday slate.
  • “I thought today was about as bad a last Sunday as the regular season had since I remember.” – Colin (04:24)
• Tanking & Lack of Competitiveness: John points to the prevalence of teams “tanking” and how expanded playoffs have only accentuated the gulf between top and bottom teams.
  • “Today, the tank was on for a lot of teams and you could really feel it in that morning window. ... This year's an all-time outlier year for the Chiefs but I was looking how many three-win teams we have." – John (04:43)
• Erosion of Parity: The bottom of the NFL increasingly resembles the NBA – “eight unwatchable teams.”
  • “The bottom of the NFL has become the bottom of the NBA. There are eight unwatchable teams.” – Colin (06:07)

Notable Quote

“The New York Giants won today. They are 8 and 30 in their last 38 games … four of their eight wins have been in week 17 and 18 when teams are tanking.” — Colin (06:24)

2. Coaching Crisis & NFL Injuries

• Coaching Quality: John observes there's more coaching “glamour,” money, and opportunity, but paradoxically a decline in coaching quality.
  • “I do think the coaching has never been worse. Obviously the owners have probably never been crazier because of the amount of money on the line.” – John (09:29)
• Injury Epidemic: Connections drawn between CBA-driven practice & contact restrictions, increased speed/athleticism, and higher injury rates.
  • “If you get a couple picks wrong, your team's going to be injured and you're not going to be very good and you'll look like the Cardinals.” – John (07:21)

3. NFL Playoff Breakdown & Matchups

AFC Playoff Outlook

• Denver (1 seed) on Bye: Both hosts question whether the bye helps tempo-driven teams like Denver or Seattle.
  • “Denver’s in a weird spot … Denver does have … a little bit of a wind advantage against potentially the Chargers, the Jags, and the Texans." – Colin (17:35)
• Chargers (7) at New England (2):
  • Colin leans New England (“very low scoring game”), John sees Chargers as a live underdog – “Jim Harbaugh as an underdog... is dangerous.” (10:34–11:54)
• Bills at Jaguars:
  • Colin pounds the disrespect for Jags as home underdogs, believes Jags are “completely legit,” John agrees Jacksonville could win the AFC.
  • "I think I'd take Jacksonville by a touchdown.” – Colin (12:03)
• Texans as Wild Card Threat: Both hosts think Houston is the wild card most likely to reach the Super Bowl, citing toughness and unique coaching (15:32–17:35).

Importance of Home Field & Weather

• Cold home playoff environments (Denver, Seattle, New England) could be decisive.
  • “The altitude and the crowd is just elite ... No way to prepare when you’re playing in seven degrees ... the home field advantage is on their side.” – John (18:43)

NFC Playoff Picture

• Seattle on Bye: “They’re a problem. That place is going to be rocking.” — John (39:22)
• Rams (5) at Carolina (4):
  • Both hosts see the Panthers as a weak, under-.500 host. Rams are better on paper, but health of star WR Devonte Adams is crucial.
  • “If you go under .500, you should not be able to host a playoff game.” – John (24:17)
• 49ers (6) at Philadelphia (3):
  • Niners as a “live dog” if healthy, but Eagles have pass rush advantage. John skeptical San Francisco has enough “bodies.”
  • Quote: “I just feel like the Niners, the gig is up. They’re out of bodies.” – Colin (32:32)
• Green Bay (7) at Chicago (2):
  • Even as a pick ‘em, both hosts wary of believing in the Bears’ and Eagles’ vulnerable defenses against veteran wild cards.
  • "The 49ers and the Bears are kind of carbon copies of each other.” – John (36:49)

4. NFL Coaching Carousel and Philosophies

• Risks of “Patriot Way” Hires: Both Colin and John warn against teams rushing to hire disciplinarian coaches influenced by Belichick’s style (Flores, Day Ball), citing past failures and changing player culture.
  • “Bill’s not giving you the secret sauce. Bill's criticizing you. Bill's running it. Bill's not sharing power.” – Colin (48:15)
• Kevin Stefanski Uncertainty: Both agree even flawed offensive minds (like Stefanski) are safer bets than bringing back Patriot-style coaches for young QB development.

Notable Quote:

“Organizational stink derails more humans than humans derail organizations.” – John (47:36)

5. College Football Playoff Preview

Miami vs Ole Miss (Semi-final)

• Colin sees Miami winning but not covering – “Miami is going to win…but I’ll take Mississippi to cover.” (54:13)
• John sees Miami to win and cover, highlighting their physicality: “That roster is about as good as money can buy…they hit and they hit violently.” (54:47–56:05)

Oregon vs Indiana (Semi-final)

• Both laud Indiana as “about the best-coached team” and capable of winning it all. Both cautiously like Indiana to win and cover, with John emphasizing Oregon’s rare opportunity to play underdog.
• “That game against Alabama…that’s as well-coached a team as I’ve ever seen in my life." – Colin (57:56)

QB Talk: Fernando Mendoza

• Projected as a “no-brainer number one” QB draft pick—mature, resilient, and possessing “A” arm talent, compared favorably to Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan.
  • “Mendoza is one of those guys…very much a giver, not a taker. Super mature.” – Colin (61:47)

6. Takeaways on Team Building & Roster Construction

• Seattle praised for:
  • Elite coaching (“dominant defensive mind” in Mike Macdonald),
  • Hitting on draft picks (“their last four years, first nine picks—they’re nine for nine” – Colin (68:40))
  • Roster physicality, game control, and home-field edge, making them Cowherd’s Super Bowl pick.
    • “If I had to pick a team to win the Super Bowl today, it would be Seattle.” – Colin (68:40)

Timestamps for Notable Segments

• NFL Week 18 criticism – 04:24–06:07
• Coaching and ownership issues – 07:21–09:41
• AFC playoff breakdown – 09:41–18:43
• Importance of Denver/Seattle home field – 17:35–20:33
• NFC playoff preview – 22:58–34:48
• Coaching carousel & Patriot Way debate – 42:48–50:49
• College Football Playoff predictions – 52:54–66:31
• QB Mendoza as NFL prospect – 61:21–66:31
• Seattle’s Super Bowl credentials – 66:31–73:02

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “There are eight unwatchable teams…the bottom of the NFL has become the bottom of the NBA.” — Colin (06:07)
• “When you expanded the playoffs…the top teams have separated so far away.” — John (04:43)
• “If the play that’s designed doesn’t work, it can get sideways. It can be an ugly loss.” — Colin on non-mobile QBs in playoffs (25:13)
• “If you’re under .500, you can make the playoffs, you can’t host a playoff game.” — Colin (25:05)
• “Niners, the gig is up. They’re out of bodies. There’s just nothing they can do.” — Colin (32:32)
• “Home field advantage is going to be special … That atmosphere is going to be rocking.” — John re: Chicago playoff game (39:22)
• “If I had to pick a team to win the Super Bowl today, it would be Seattle.” — Colin (68:40)

Overall Tone & Language

• Opinionated, candid, and at times exasperated; a mixture of skepticism—especially toward the state of the NFL’s lower half and certain coaching trends—and enthusiasm about the possibilities of the playoffs and college prospects.
• Jargon-rich, peppered with inside-scouting detail and practical references to betting lines and coaching trees.

Why This Episode Is Worth Hearing

Perfect for listeners seeking honest, granular insights into both the NFL’s end-of-season “sorting out” and the distinctiveness of the 2025–26 playoff field. The dialogue is equally valuable for fans interested in the shifting college football landscape, especially with the transfer portal’s effect and evaluative talk around QB prospects for the 2026 NFL Draft.