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Seth Wilcock
This is an Iheart podcast.
Pat Fitzmaurice
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Derrick Brown
All right, and welcome into the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast. We've got part two of depth chart dilemmas on deck for you today, breaking down the murkiest wide receiver rooms from around the NFL. In part one, we did cover running back, so make sure you go back, check out that episode if you haven't already. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and today I'm joined by the boys, Pat Fitzmaurice and Derrick Brown dbro. As noted, it's all about wide receivers in this particular program.
Seth Wilcock
Really.
Derrick Brown
The bread of the fantasy football sandwich, if you would. Meaning it's tough to win without good ones. Is that a fair analogy? And what's your one of one of sandwiches, my friend?
Seth Wilcock
Oh, I, I, I think I'm more on the meat side of that. And the one on one of sandwiches has a hot dog, right? Oh, no.
Derrick Brown
Come on.
Seth Wilcock
Plus the gas grenade in there. Baby sandwich. Just leave it with that and a walk away.
Derrick Brown
Pat, how are you? And do you have any sandwich or bread related takes to get out of the way at the top here?
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, man. Doing well. And God, I'm off carbs right now, so now you're just making me hungry, Seth, for like. Yeah, just another couple of weeks. But man, you're making me think of how much I could go for an Italian sub right now. And you know, the 102 of sandwiches. Maybe a good Reuben. I do like me a good Reuben.
Derrick Brown
I agree. I agree that the kraut on the sandwich is always good for me. Of course, out, out here in, in western pa, we also put co right on the sandwich. Have, have you tried a Permani brother sandwich? Either of you guys with the slaw? Right on.
Pat Fitzmaurice
I have not been s. Slaw and fries.
Derrick Brown
Right?
Pat Fitzmaurice
They put it all right on the sub. Yeah. I have to get to Pranti brothers in Pittsburgh. I that is a, a life goal that I have yet to fulfill.
Seth Wilcock
Come on down. I'm more of a never never CR guy. Sorry. Not sorry.
Derrick Brown
Jeez. I. I think we also got into.
Seth Wilcock
This conversation on a recent live stress IPAs. Toss them all in the same.
Pat Fitzmaurice
You'll get those adult taste buds kicking in one of these days.
Seth Wilcock
Hey, man, ain't nothing wrong with ketchup, okay? I'm not saying to put it on your freaking eggs. And I'm not saying to put it on steak. There ain't none wrong with ketchup.
Derrick Brown
No, not on a sandwich. That's. That's. That's like a blown burger.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Come on.
Derrick Brown
Okay, okay. All right. Well, we've got a breakdown of the five messiest wide receiver rooms coming your way today. And as always, before we jump in, if you want more fans, football takes. If you want more sandwich and food takes, make sure you're tuning in here on the Fancy Pros YouTube channel or listening on the podcast feed on the Reggie, thank you so much for the support. Easiest freeway Support us. Give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content. Make sure you're subscribing if you're new, let's go ahead and start, boys. In the Bay Area, where things got a lot more complicated recently, we all expected Brandon Iuk to land on the PUP to start camp after coming off that torn ACL last season. However, we now have second year wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, a popular breakout candidate, also placed on the PUP to start training camp with a hamstring injury. And then there's Juwan Jennings, who wants a new deal or to be traded from the 49ers after career 77 catch, nearly a thousand yard season, six touchdowns scored in 2024 for him. Pat, what looked like an appealing trio of mid round targets now appears to be a potential disaster. How do you sort it out?
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, everyone's either unhappy or hurt, Seth. And when they are healthy, they're going to be sharing targets with George KITTLE and Christian McCaffrey.
Derrick Brown
True.
Pat Fitzmaurice
So this is a messy room without question. And it seems like Juwan Jennings is the guy generating some serious heat out in the Twitter streets. Like every year there are a few players who inspire the fantasy analyst crusades where everyone is grabbing a sword and shield and waiting into battle on one side of the other for one player or a couple players. And Juwan Jennings is one of those guys this year. Now personally, I don't think he's a bad buy at his current price. His ADP is wide receiver 39. I think his ECR is one spot higher. Pretty modest investment for a guy who did pop last year when given an opportunity and I know some people say, well, if he didn't have the 175 yard three touchdown game, his numbers wouldn't look so good. But Jennings was, he was not bad at like checking in with a little something every week. I think There were only five games where he finished with under 50 receiving yards. I do have to admit though, Seth, I am a little skeptical about an age 27 breakout from a former seventh round draft pick who unquestionably benefited from injuries to other San Francisco wide receivers. We had Ricky Pierce law getting shots and missing time early in the season. We had Brandon Aiuk with a major knee injury missing time later in the season. Jennings averaged 2.26 yards per outrun last year, which is great rates. But in his other three seasons he was under 1.40 yards per route run, which is pretty terrible. Even with the big yards per route run number last season, he's up to 1.62 for his career now. Like I know, Ricky Piersoll only averaged 1.31 yards per route run last season. Not a good number. But Pearsall did miss a lot of time early in the season after being shot. Probably needed some time to sort of reintegrate himself into the offense. Didn't play until Week 7, didn't really pop until the last two games, but he popped in a big way. Eight catches, 141 yards, one touchdown in Week 17, six for 69 and a touchdown in Week 18. He's the guy I'm slightly more interested in. I think there's more upside from this former first rounder who's pretty athletic than there is from Jennings and I'm just not real interested in IUK who's probably going to open the regular season on pop. Missed the first six weeks and probably needs some time to get in after that. Like just a guy. You're probably not comfortably starting until week 10 at the earliest.
Derrick Brown
No thanks Dbro this is almost kind of a fantasy philosophy question in a way because let's throw IUK out for a second. Let's assume Juwan Jennings starts the season as the team's X receiver. Ricky Pierce all will probably more man the flanker in two wide receiver sets in the slot in three wide receiver sets. Kind of that Debo Samuel S role if you would. So which do you prefer? Jennings at the x at wide receiver 38 in ECR or Piersol opens on the pup potentially in that Samuel role? Wide receiver 46 in ECR IU two spots behind him at 48.
Seth Wilcock
I'm taking shots on both Piersol and Jennings, I think straight up, I mean it just some of this kind of depends on what we don't know right now with Piersol's hamstring injury assuming because he could start the camp on the PUP and come off at any time. So like this could be by the time that people are listening to this because this could be a non factor like he could be practicing in full and all of that is in the rear view. So for me I'm not, I'm not going to bump down Pierce hall too much because of the hamstring injury because there's a lot of unknown there like severity, how long it's going to keep him out and I think that's going to affect his ADP and his draft stock and his outlook. So kind of approaching this with a glass half full approach like saying Pierce all comes back in more short order. I want shots on Jennings and Piersol, like I think both of them are fantastic values where they're going in that wide receiver three range and I've got both them ranked like right next to each other basically in the wide receiver three range and I want to take shots on both of them like Jennings. To Pat's point, Jennings was fantastic last year and not including and in this sample that I'm about to discuss, this isn't including that monster blow up game and so stating that he was still really freaking good. So weeks 10 through 18 without Brandon Ayuk in the lineup, you had Jennings commanding a 25.1% target share, averaging 63.4 receiving yards per game, 2.2 yards per route run, a 32.7% first read share and 0.113 first downs per route run. To give people context, if he had kept up that, that pace the entirety of the season amongst all wide receivers of these 50 targets he would rank 10th, 23rd, 22nd, 11th and 14th in those categories. And this is without the blow up game. And he was averaging 14.1 PPR points per game in that process. That would have made him the wide receiver 26 on the season. So at this price tag it's free money for Juwan Jennings and I really like Ricky Piersol. Like this guy comes to the 100 foot view. I think the entire San Francisco offense is underpriced this off season because people don't know what to do with it. It is an ambiguous situation and they're like can the 27 year old breakout keep it up? I mean he's got a lot in his bag that says that we probably can keep it up. Even if you just look at per route metrics, 34th and separation 14th and route win rate last year. Those are really strong metrics for Jennings. So I want to take shots on both these guys across multiple leagues. And Ricky Pearsall, to Pat's point, if I were to tell you, take the name of it out, there was a player that walked into the season with hamstring issues and training camp that set him back. Then the guy gets shot. Then he comes back to the lineup. He's a former first round pick. One of the wide receivers is hurt. We don't know what we're going to get out of him. Another one's a 27 year old, late breakout and it's still one of the best projected offenses in the NFL. And yet people are drafting him as a wide receiver. Three Would that be a player that anybody should be in on? Of course. Especially talking about he popped like like Pat said those final two games, almost a 22% target share, 2.84 yards per route run. San Francisco looked at Ricky Pearsall and they said come on man, step up. Can you be the guy that we can lean on next year? And Ricky Piersoll answered the bell emphatically. He was the wide receiver 7 and wide receiver 14 and weekly scoring in those two games. So to your point though, getting back to your original question, Seth, I don't think that Ricky Piersoll is going to play a Debo role. I don't think they have a Debo esque player on this roster. I think this is going to be they're going to move the these guys around, play them in multiple positions. Pierce all played a ton on the outside. I do think that he's probably best inside and playing against off coverage. Just I went back and I watched every single route he ran in all 22 last year. The the route tree they asked him to run at the beginning of the year was a lot of like short area stuff like whip routes, things like that where it was just like not design touches but the underneath stuff. You saw his route tree grow as the year progressed and I think that is notable and for a player of his talent, I think he's going to be more the possession guy in this offense and him and him and Jennings are going to do that and then they're going to create explosives in other ways with other guys that Pierce hall does still have the athleticism to get downtown so he can be the field stretcher in some aspects too. But I think this all comes back to I want to draft both these guys and I'm avoiding iuk. No telling when he is a full time player or what we get out of him. And even in this offense previously IUK has been the single high beater. He's been the guy that like when they face a lot of zone coverage which a lot of teams play zone at 50 above 50%, 60% of the defensive coverages nowadays you're not seeing as much single high in the NFL these days. Brandon IUK has been their go to versus single high versus zone. It's been everybody else. It was, it was the Debo and the Kiddle show versus zone over the last two years and I wrote that up in the primer continuously. I think Jennings and Piersol are going to be the answer for answer for that Pat hypothetical.
Derrick Brown
You're on the clock, you know that probably. Whoever you don't take of Jennings and Pearsall, let's say you have Chris Welsh behind you with with two picks before your next one. Are you taking Jennings? Are you taking Piercel Is it Pearsall for you?
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm taking Pierce. I'm making Welsh happy because I know he's a big Jennings disciple.
Derrick Brown
Same, same for you. Okay, I'm in, I'm in agreeance. Hopefully it works out because last year I, I did the thing where I took brain Iuk. I tried to handcuff him with, with Ricky Piersol and just get some upside there. Didn't get Jennings off the waiver wire so. And I dropped Pierce all before you know the breakout happened. So stressful, tough situation out there in the Bay Area. Hopefully we get some resolution there soon. This month if you want a chance to win a signed James Cook Buffalo Bills jersey for free courtesy of our friends over@pristineauction.com all you have to do is subscribe to the Fancy Pros YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below on any video and that's it. We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So make sure you ring that bell so you can know when new videos are up and to claim your prize. If you are that lucky winner.
Maria Hinojosa
Check out behind the Flow, a podcast documentary series following the launch of San Diego Football Club. We go behind the scenes and explore the stories of those involved.
Sarah Spain
San Diego coming to MLS is going to be a game changer because this region has been hungry for a men's professional soccer team.
Pat Fitzmaurice
We need veteran players and we need young players like you're building a team.
Seth Wilcock
From scratch and so the succession plan of long term success needs to be defined we need to embrace this community.
Sarah Spain
When I was 13, my uncle took took me to a qualifier and we watched Paraguay against Chile pouring rain. Just watching the fans jumping up and down, I think that was definitely a watershed moment for me. Not only was that going to be my game, but it was going to be my life.
Maria Hinojosa
Listen to San Diego FC behind the Flow now on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Sarah Spain
Get fired up, y'. All. Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people and an incomparable soccer icon, Megan Rapinoe to the show and we had a blast. We talked about her recent 40th birthday celebrations, Co hosting a podcast with her fiance Sue, Bird watching former teammates retire and more. Never a dull moment with Pino. Take a listen. What do you miss the most about being a pro athlete?
Seth Wilcock
The final.
Sarah Spain
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Seth Wilcock
Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.
Maria Hinojosa
When I became a journalist, I was the first Latina in the newsrooms where I worked. I'm Maria Hinojosa. I dreamt of having a place where voices that have been historically sidelined would instead be centered. For over 30 years now, Latino USA has been that place. This is Latino USA, the radio journal of news and cultula. As the longest running lat Latino news and culture show in the United States, Latino USA delivers the stories that truly matter to all of us. From sharp and deep analysis of the.
Seth Wilcock
Most pressing news, they're creating this narrative.
Sarah Spain
That immigrants are criminals.
Pat Fitzmaurice
This is about everyone's freedom of speech.
Seth Wilcock
Nobody expected two popes from the American.
Maria Hinojosa
Continent to stories about our cultures and our identities.
Seth Wilcock
When you do get a trans character like Emilia Perez, the trans community is going to push back on that colorism.
Maria Hinojosa
All of these things that exist in Mexican culture and Latino culture. You'll hear from people like Congresswoman aoc. I don't want to give them my fear.
Seth Wilcock
I'm not going to give them my fear.
Maria Hinojosa
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Derrick Brown
It's anyone's guess in Green Bay as the packers suddenly have one of the deepest wide receiver rooms around the first round rookie Matthew golden out of Texas slot man Jaden Reed, Romeo Dobbs, Don Tavian Wicks third round rookie and former TCU horn frog Savion Williams plus Christian Watson who continues to recover from that torn ACL dbro. What's your projected target share for this group and who are you targeting, if anyone in fantasy drafts this summer this might surprise people.
Seth Wilcock
I want to draft a ton of Romeo Dobbs in this passing attack. He he he pops in a lot of metrics man. Like and for LaFleur and his wide receiver by committee approach, dude, Romeo Dobbs was the only, was the only guy that had above a 75 route share last year. He led the team with a 76.7 route share. He led the team in target share. He led the team in first read share. He was solid with 1.90 yards per route run and amongst 85 qualifying wide receivers, Romeo Dobbs also was 25th in first downs per route run. So the underneath metrics and I know I'm talking about a guy that was wide receiver 47 and fantasy points per game. So people like why are you excited to draft this guy? One he's basically free. You want it like everybody wants to take shots on Jaden Reed and Matthew golden in this passing attack. I'm just not there dude. Like I don't think that Matthew golden is going to come in and command this giant target share like last year at Texas, like he wasn't a thing until basically Isaiah Bond was kind of phased out of it. And you look over his career 18.7 target per route run rate 1.85 yards per route run outside of the first round draft capital. We'd be excited about any of that. And I'm sorry I'm calling fraudulent on the 40 yard time. People can go down their own.
Derrick Brown
I cashed a nice 421 ticket.
Seth Wilcock
Look, I'm not shading your bets. Okay? Good for you.
Derrick Brown
Thank you.
Seth Wilcock
Appreciate the quiche in your pocket. But this all goes back to like Romeo Dobbs is going to be a full time player in this offense and I haven't even gotten to the most compelling stat amongst 112 qualifying wide receivers last year guys. Romeo Dobbs 11th in separation score. He posted the second best route win rate of any wide receiver last year. I think the breakout's coming for Romeo Dobbs, man. And I'm not telling you he's going to be a wide receiver too in fantasy but if this offense bounces back, Romeo Dobbs is the guy I want to garner from this passing attack because again I've talked about golden not high on him. Christian Watson, come on man, like people posted a social media clip, he was running at half speed and some Green Bay beat writer was like look at Christian Watson go. I was like come on, he's not making hard cuts, he's jogging on the field and you're talking about well let's hype it up. He's not coming back anytime soon. Green Bay is conservative with guys coming off of injuries, coming off an acl. They draft another guy and we haven't even discussed Savion Williams in this wide receiver room. And with Jaden Reed like I think at this point we know what we're getting when he's on the field. He's a highly productive and efficient player. We know that. But again he hasn't been a full time wide receiver. He's. I don't think he's going to be a full time wide receiver with this wide receiver by committee approach that LaFleur likes to run. I think outside of Dubs and Tucker Craft this the only two guys that over had over 70% route per drop back rates. I think that probably comes back and it's going to be the same thing again this year. So Jaden Reed 69.3% route per drawback that was 64th amongst wide receivers. Unless you run hot on touchdowns and you score eight to 12 touchdowns you just can't live in that world and be anything more even in the best ilk as a wide receiver three and that's what Jaden Reed was 20, 24 wide receiver 26 and fantasy points per game. But the wide receiver 43 and expected fantasy points per game I don't even know and I'm curious Pat's take on this. We have not got to training camp as the report of this like as far as like clip season and hype and stuff like that. I think there is a non zero chance that Green Bay drafted and I'm not saying Jaden Reed's direct replacement but I think he's going to make noise tell me that Savion Williams isn't a more souped up Ferrari version of the same exact role that they asked Jaden Reed to play Every single week. He's big, he's fast. You could use him in the run game. You could use him all over the field in manufacture touches and out of the slot. I'm not telling you that Savon's going to take Jay and Reed's job, but if that we're sitting in week 16 and that happens, I'm not going to be surprised. Dude. So I'm curious what Pat thinks about Savion, but. And honestly, this entire like wide receiver room, because I know he's got his finger on the pulse of it.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Savion is freaky. I mean, he's basically Randy Moss with tennis rackets for hands is the thing.
Seth Wilcock
He is Dairy Bell, Devo Samuel. Like, come on.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean, there he is, an intriguing guy for sure. And he could cut into some of the. That gadget work that Jaden Reed gets, the jet sweeps, the bubble screens, that sort of stuff. Like a lot of those could go to Savion Williams. Now like, like Jaden Reed does sort of interest me a little bit just in the fact that when he has played with Jordan Love, he scored a lot of touchdowns. Good chemistry in those games. Like the, the touchdown rate kind of fell off late last year, but the packers were going super run heavy. Love just wasn't healthy all year. He had that sprained MCL early in the season. A groin injury was playing through later in the season. I just don't know if he was ever 100% they're going to throw more. I just worry that the targets are chopped up so many ways. I think probably no one ends up with a 20% target share in this offense. I. Sorry, Debra. I don't see it for dubs. Dubs average 3 1/2 catches and 46 yards per game last year. I kind of think that's the ceiling. The. The guy who I know, Matt LaFleur, has compared Dontavian Wicks to Devonte Adams in the past. Wicks is really good at getting open and really terrible at actually making the catch. And yeah, I mean, he was. Although devonte Adams did have that same trouble his first couple of years in the league. So maybe there's a big turnaround coming for Don Tavian Wicks in that category. But man, when you watch that guy play, it's hard to imagine that because he is just focus drops galore and if there's anyone on him when he's trying to make the catch, he just can't do it. So he's interesting. Matthew Golden I think is probably going to be a Big play boomer bust guy in his rookie year. A guy who all the film analysts, the Daniel Jeremiah's, the Dane Bruglers, the Mel Kuiper juniors, they all loved and had as a top 15 overall draft pick. But the production profile in college has a lot of the fantasy analysts who do work on college prospects just running up the red flags right and left. So this is a really messy situation. I'm not sure there is like weekly starter upside for any of these guys, quite honestly.
Derrick Brown
Okay.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Tucker Craft. Tucker Craft is the guy I'm drafting in this group.
Seth Wilcock
Two shots I'm taking on this passing attack. It's dubs and it's Craft past that. You can avoid me with all the rest of this outside of some Savion last round, best ball targeting.
Derrick Brown
Pat, if you're on the clock and you want to take one of these packers receivers, would it be read over golden still for you as it stands?
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah. Jaden Reed, like in basketball, he's, he's the guy I've drafted most often and I've still got, you know, probably no more than 12%. Jaden Reed on my best ball teams.
Derrick Brown
Reed currently wide receiver 45 in ECR. So quite the drop from last year when he was in, you know, the mid wide receiver 20s and golden coming in at wide receiver 52 and Dbro's Guy Romeo all the way down at wide receiver 62. It doesn't get much easier in Buffalo either.
Seth Wilcock
Gentlemen.
Derrick Brown
Where the Bills, they're going to be running out 20, 24, second rounder Keon Coleman at the X presumptively. Joshua Palmer, he comes over from the Chargers, likely going to man that flanker position. And then the truth, Khalil Shakira, he's back in the slot. They also have former fantasy favorites Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore and Leviska Chenault Jr. Plus seventh round rookie Kane Prather out of Maryland in the room. Pat, where do you see these high value targets from Josh Allen going this season?
Pat Fitzmaurice
I have some interest in Khalil Shakira, sort of a high floor, low ceiling guy who can be your wide receiver for flex type. And I have some interest in Keon Coleman as a big, big play guy. Probably isn't going to command a lot of targets. I mean, Keon averaged 19.2 yards per catch and just under 10 yards per target in his rookie year. He just didn't command a lot of targets. He needs to get more consistent and earn more targets. But the, you know, the Bills don't have anything close to an alpha receiver on their roster. And I don't know if Keon Coleman is going to become that this year. I do think there is some target upside. I'm optimistic he can stay a little healthier and take a big step forward. But yeah, I'm, I'm not sure we get like the theme in Buffalo and I think this is kind of a mantra for their offense. Everybody eats.
Derrick Brown
Yeah.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Like they, they give the ball to three different running backs.
Derrick Brown
Ty Johnson.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, yeah. They work in two tight ends and four or five different receivers. So if we're looking for like big breakthrough pass catching upside on the Bills roster, we're probably not going to get it.
Derrick Brown
Khalil Shakira, wide receiver, 39 in ECR. He finished at 37 overall in points per game last season, so feels reasonable Keon Coleman, wide receiver, 54 could have been lad McConkey if, if maybe they. They didn't move back that year. And then Joshua Palmer, wide receiver, 71 DBro. Where do you stand on the, the Buffalo Bills pass catching room? And I think Pat summed it up very well that it might just be kind of a mixed bag where you can start these guys here and there and outside of Shakira, there might not be one guy that you're firing into your lineup each and every single week.
Seth Wilcock
Yeah, I think that that's probably how this goes, man. I think you look at Shakir and I went deep in his numbers. Like, he did see his role grow. Like weeks seven through 17, his target share did bump up from. So weeks one through six, it was 16.3% that bumped up to 23% in week seven through 17, he averaged 57 receiving yards per game. Had almost a 28 first reach here. So like if he were to run hot and touchdowns in this offense, like during that stretch, he was the wide receiver 36 in fantasy points per game. Like if he runs hot with touchdowns, maybe he can scrape closer to like more of a high end wide receiver 3. But I think that's basically all he's going to be because I still think that targets are going to get divvied up to a lot of different players. I think that Buffalo loves because just considering how they run their offense and it's a good, it's a good NFL thing, but it's bad for us in fantasy.
Derrick Brown
Right.
Seth Wilcock
That they really play the matchups and they look at all of that and the targets are going to go to a lot of different places. And especially like the part that like, if you've been playing dfs over the last Few years you're playing like you're betting touchdowns and stuff. Whatever. It's one of the maddening things about Buffalo.
Derrick Brown
Yeah.
Seth Wilcock
When they get into the red zone, they do all kinds of different stuff. They run trick plays, they run gadget stuff and pop passes. It's Josh Allen, it's the running backs, it's. It's the receivers, it's the, the tight end. Four on the freaking depth chart that you're like, who is that? Oh, dear Lord. And that's what happens in Buffalo now. It's great for them. They score a crap ton of points. This is not very conducive to a lot of fantasy upside, but so Shakira is fine where he goes. I think he's a decent wide receiver. 3. Maybe a little bit of more meat on the bone. I'm out on Keon Coleman just looking at his role in this offense. I think that the Bills, they drafted Keon Coleman to be their man coverage beater last year. Over the last two seasons, the Buffalo Bills have faced the third most and the highest man coverage rate in the entire NFL. And you look at what Keon Coleman did last year, if you look at versus man coverage, he had a 27% target per route run rate versus man. Now against zone dude, that fell off the table. 14%. Nobody's feed their families in fantasy land with a 14% target per route run rate. And the thing that I worry about with Keon Coleman is he wasn't amazing at beating man coverage last year. He wasn't terrible, especially with the rookie, but like among 71 qualifying wide receivers, 37th in separation, 44th and route win rate. Maybe he grows in that aspect in his second season. But to that, I think this is exactly why they went out and they signed Joshua Palmer to play this man coverage beating role. Because Palmer, underneath the surface has been awesome at it. Last year amongst all wide receivers, he was fifth in route win rate and separation against man coverage. So I think Palmer is going to become the guy that they go to when they face man coverage and you're going to see me writing it up in the primer. If they're going to face a lot of man coverage that week, I think it's going to be a Josh Palmer week. So I think again, this is going to be very matchup dependent and there's nobody in this passing attack that I'm really high on. I could just tell you I don't want to draft Keon Coleman. I don't see really see the upside for him. I think he's gonna be a splash we guy and I think Palmer could take his role in this offense. Shakir is fine where he goes, but again, where's the upside? Unless he just runs incredibly hot with touchdowns, like could that happen? It's possible. But do you do all the numbers and stuff lead me to want to draft a lot of Cleo Shakir? No, I'm not going to be heavy on him. I'm just going to mix him in in best ball formats.
Derrick Brown
I'll tell you what, the one thing I kept doing last season was late in that playoff stretch, I just kept betting the Keon Coleman over one and a half receptions. I hope they don't change that line and they just throw that out week one because I think I'm going right back to it, baby. It's, it's not fun. It's not like a, you know, a high ceiling or anything like that, but it's a good little sweat there.
Seth Wilcock
I was bet dude. I was cashing Khalil Shakir overs almost the entire back half of the season. I think like you go to betting pros and you could see like what was your best thing. I think I was like 70 on Khalil Shakir overs last year. It was nice.
Derrick Brown
Some degenerate stuff right there. Still debating these wide receivers. We'll be taking questions all week on Twitch at Twitch tv. Fantasy pros Erickson and Tom Strachan talk Best ball Mondays at 4 Eastern. Myself and Debro answer your questions on Tuesdays and Wednesdays at 2 Eastern and then we also have some More Q&As coming your ways on Thursdays and Fridays at 5 Eastern. Give us a follow and ask questions live on twitch at Twitch TV. FantasyPros. Let's head to Pat's neck of the woods where the Chicago Bears are all in on making Caleb Williams work under center with head coach Ben Johnson now running the show. DJ Moore, he's back. He's broken 1,000 yards four times in his career. Just fell short of that mark a season ago in Williams rookie year. Roma Dunese, he also returns after seeing 101 targets as a rookie. And Missouri product Luther Burton III. He enters the fray after being selected in the second round of the NFL draft. Dbro, what is the target pecking order do in your eyes here in Chai Town and who are you circling, if anyone, in fancy drafts?
Seth Wilcock
This is an utter and absolute mess, dude. Like I just, first of all, I want to give a high, high level look at this. So with all of the Ben Johnson steam we are looking at an offense that we haven't even see Caleb Williams support one really good fantasy option yet. And now all of a sudden we think he's going to support what, three, four, five options. Like everybody's like, oh, I need to draft Colston Loveland. Oh I need to draft Luther Burton. Oh, DJ Moore. Oh, maybe it's Roma Dunes day. Like I, I, I need to see Caleb Williams prove that he could support one really good fantasy option, much less three to four. Like if that happens, this is has to be like a top three to five offense and I just don't know if that happens for Chicago. So I'm lower like on all of these options just in general like because all of them have warts, man. Like I think if I'm going to draft anybody out of this, this passing attack, it's probably going to be DJ Moore. And you could throw all of the, the per route efficiency stuff like as far as yards per route run, first downs per route run. Throw it all in the garbage can. Because Caleb Williams was just God awful last year. He was terrible. So that, that tanked the efficiency numbers on a per route basis for basically everybody inside of this passing attack. But the one thing that didn't change for DJ Moore is he does, he didn't lose his ability or didn't go away. His ability to earn targets and volume. I mean the guy was still 13th in target share and 10th and first reach here in this offense. So if I'm going to make a bet on volume out of this offense and where volume goes, it's DJ Moore. I think he's fine at his price tag. Rome is a guy I loved as a prospect, but the problem is I cannot analytically, even outside of all of the bad things that Caleb Williams put this offense through and put up on film last year, I can't analytically make the case even in the deeper metrics for Roma, Dunes, Dunes and me to be really high on him despite. Even if I had faith in Caleb Williams this year, like if you filter out and if you only accounted for catchable targets and you exclude screens in a Dunes sample from last year, that would still only make him 61st in yards per route run and first downs run, he was 78th in separation, 54th and route win rate. And I bring up those two metrics because that's agnostic. He's getting open on his routes or he's not getting open his routes. That, that's agnostic. A bad quarterback player, good quarterback play and he was still outside the top 50 wide receivers in both of those metrics. So it's like, how do I get really high or over the moon on Roma Dunes? Hey, I loved him as a prospect, but it didn't happen and I don't know if it happens this year. And Luther Burden, you just count me out on the archetype of this player. I mean, he is a manufactured touch guy through and through and through. He, he missed a lot of the offseason so far with injuries. I don't know when we're going to see him in camp. He's been a manufactured touch guy and just the archetype of that wide receiver has not played out really well in the NFL. I'll point everybody to Malachi Corley year last year. I'll point everybody to Elijah Moore the year before. Andy Isabella, Rondell Moore. Have any of these guys that have been highly manufactured touch guys in college, not guys that have been asked to go out and run and just line up and route dudes up, they haven't panned out in the NFL, I would love it. And I hope Luther Burden proves me wrong. But I, I just, I don't, I don't see it like, it's not like, even at his cost, it's just not somebody I want to invest in. When we're talking about three to four options that are diluting the target share and we don't know, like, this could be one of those offense, much like a LaFleur offense that's matchup based or Buffalo where it's like every single week they're utilizing a different guy based off of what defense they're facing and the holes that Ben Johnson sees in that. And that's going to be maddening. People are like, do I start him? Do I not? Do I start him? Do I not? Oh, I didn't start him. And he blew up. Oh God, what do I do? And for me, I'm just like, nah, I'm just avoiding this headache. Outside of maybe some shots on DJ Moore.
Derrick Brown
Okay. Yeah. And Burden, you know, just a tough 2024 season for him. His production nearly cut in half from a great 2023 season at Missouri. Obviously Brady Cook kind of in and out of the lineup. Weird offensive scheme down there in the sec, but still, nonetheless, I'm out on Burden as well. But Pat, I know you're, you were high on Roma Dunes as a prospect and wide receiver 37, that's a high end wide receiver 4 price tag right now. That, that feels right, right? Despite all the advanced analytics that the DBRO is is rightfully throwing at us. It just makes me want to gravitate towards him. What say you?
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I'm a little above ADP and ECR on him, Seth. The funny thing is someone is always higher on me if I get analyst draft with Roma Dunes they like I never get him in those. But I think there's a chance I might get him in a couple of home league drafts because I don't think the public at large is quite as high on on Romo Dunes and maybe fantasy analysts are getting too hung up on the draft capital. Yeah, I guess maybe my biggest concern is that Odunze DBRO mentioned it like the separation numbers were not great. And I don't think elite separation is really what Odunze is all about. He's a guy who can make like and we saw this when he was playing at Washington. He would be wearing a defender like a well tailored Italian suit. Michael Penix didn't care. He was shoehorning it in and putting it, you know, in the one spot where the defender couldn't get it. And Oduns, they could get it and Odunes they came down with the catch every time. I mean he was amazing at contested catches at Washington and I just don't know if Caleb Williams is that kind of. He might be more of a see it, throw it kind of quarterback than a timing guy. So I don't know if it is a love connection between those two or at least not yet. I mean they seem to have a really good rapport. Like we saw it on Hard Knocks last year. I see it with some of like the local news coverage of Bears practices. Roman and Caleb like each other. I just don't know how well their game mesh together yet kind of the same thing with DJ Moore, like it was weird. And I have a great respect for DJ Moore. I think he's a wonderful player. I'm slightly below ADP and ECR on him because his body language last year was terrible. Like I felt like DJ Moore was unhappy all year enough. I don't know if it was he and Caleb didn't really click or if it was just the coaching staff that he kind of hit.
Derrick Brown
Yeah, Shane Waldron, tough look.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean it very well could have been he was just unhappy with the system he was in. So you know, I'm not like way below ECR or adp, but I'm a little below on him and the guy I'm way out in front of ECR and ADP on his Luther Burton.
Derrick Brown
Oh, don't do it for me.
Pat Fitzmaurice
No, because he's a cheap dart thrower. I've got him at wide receiver 50 right now and everyone else has him at wide receiver 74. And I think people are looking for this, to use this hamstring injury as an excuse to write off Luther Burden for the entire season, in which case, great, like, I'll swoop in and grab Luther Burton in the final run. Because what if he is Ben Johnson's version of Amon Ross St. Brown in this offense? And it's a plausible what if, because if Luther Burton had come out after his sophomore year at Missouri where He lit the SEC on fire as a 19 year old. Like, I mean, he was crazy. And he's so good after the catch. He has those Allen Iverson moves where he just like makes the one cut and leaves a defender grasping at air. So I'm excited about what he could potentially do. I know he had a bad junior year. You mentioned it. Like, Brady Cook wasn't healthy really all season and things just didn't click. But I don't know, man. I. I do.
Derrick Brown
I get it.
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think Burden is interesting. The only thing is, like, if, if they use Kemet and Loveland together in a lot of 12 personnel, then that probably keeps Luther Burton off the field too much for him to have any sort of impact.
Seth Wilcock
That's. That's where I'm at, Pat. Like, I think they could use a lot of 12 personnel with those tight ends, and then it's going to limit it. Like, is Burden just the Jaden Reed of Chicago?
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, but. But in fairness, at the price that Burden is going at right now.
Seth Wilcock
No, that's fair.
Pat Fitzmaurice
You can draft him, drop him in week three. No harm, no foul.
Seth Wilcock
I don't disagree with that. And I'm today years old to realize that people are still ranking DJ Moore as a top 24 wide receiver. So maybe I'm not going to get much of him in drafts either.
Derrick Brown
Yeah, wide receiver, 19 in ECR. Yeah, wide receiver, 19 ECR. So I was just about to say too, it seems like you're most in on more. I'm probably most in on more. And then Pat's more in on a burden. So not the most helpful analysis. Maybe, but maybe something we're all just kind of avoiding and it, you know, maybe it's one of those situations, Pat, where you buy the cake and not the icing. Right. You buy Caleb Williams.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Well, maybe. But at the same time, an injury could create value. True. In this wide receiver core. Like one of these guys get Hurt gets hurts and maybe all of a sudden the other two become significantly more valuable.
Derrick Brown
Okay, let's go ahead. Let's round out the program with the super bowl runner ups, the Kansas City Chiefs. Rasheed Rice of course could be facing league disciplinary action after being sentenced to five years probation, 30 days in jail to serve over the course of that parole. That's due to his role in that six car crash back in Dallas back in 2024. Xavier Worthy was a league winner as a rookie after Rice went down with the torn ACL last season. Of course we also have Marquis, Hollywood Brown, 4th round pick, Jalen Royals from Utah State, Juju Smith, Schuster and Sky Moore still hanging around in the mix as well. Fitz, do you have a feeling on how the targets could shake out and where the fantasy points go with the Chiefs this season?
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I'm a little worried that Worthy tops out at like 20% this year, although I think those could be some higher value targets. He's probably going to be running deeper routes with Rasheed back or at least back for you know, 12 or 10 games or whatever it is that he actually plays. Hollywood is going to be boomer bossed, couple big plays or whatever, but he is going to draw targets. Here's the thing, like I've been below consensus on Rasheed Rice all off season and I know like the enthusiasm has just been getting crazy from and with some really smart people like I know, you know, friend of the show Ryan Heath and Fantasy Points really likes him. I think Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points also likes him. My buddy Evan Silva from Establish the Run before the suspension News. I think Evan had rasheed Rice at 13th overall in his rankings. Here's why I am not at all.
Seth Wilcock
I thought I was high at wide receiver 13 before the suspension news, but.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean people are looking at what Rasheed did in his rookie year and then early last season. Well, early last season Worthy was not a factor. He was not fully integrated into this offense. Yet in the three games where Rasheed Rice was going nuts before he got hurt in week four, Worthy had drawn 11 targets in those first three games. Then towards the end of the season with Rasheed out, if you take the last eight games including the playoffs and excluding week 18 when worthy played I think one snap in week 18, they just sat their starters worthy of at least five catches in all of those games. 50 catches total over those eight games. Pacing for 100 catch season. Now I don't expect worthy to have 100 catch season this year with Rice back, but when Rice was Killing it as a rookie like Marquez. Valdez Scantling started 10 games for the Chiefs. Justin Watson started eight. Sky Moore started eight games. Their target shares that year, MVS was at a 7% target share. Skymore was at 6.3%. Justin Watson actually had the highest target share of those three guys at 8.8%. Xavier Worthy is going to command even if he is not in a role similar to the one vacated by Rasheed Rice last year. Post injury. Worthy is going to command targets even if he's running his routes further downfield at a much higher rate than any of those bums that Rice was sharing targets with in 2023. Sorry, all due respect, not Colin, those guys bombs, but let's just say they were fantasy bums below replacement level.
Seth Wilcock
Solid NFL players, not fantasy producers.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yes. And so and I think even Hollywood Brown is going to have higher than an 8.8% target share in this offense. So Rice just does not have the same path to targets that he had early last year or in 2023 when he was sensational.
Derrick Brown
Rice wide receiver 21 in ACR currently worthy wide receiver 31 Hollywood Brown wide receiver 58 Derek could I make the case that maybe I just miss out on all these guys because it's such a crowd room and just go with Travis Kelsey maybe in the seventh, eighth.
Seth Wilcock
Round this year you could and I don't disagree with people taking that path. I mean for me this wide receiver room is, is pretty easy to me. I'm going to take shots on Rice when he falls in drafts. I'm still in on the talent because I think when he comes back we know the role that he's going to play and I, I don't. I think where people like looking at this offense and this offense like I, I've, I've honestly taken a 180 approach on this. Like I've, I've really come around to this offense in the sense of it. Beginning of the offseason I'm like how is this all going to work? But I don't know if Patrick Mahomes gets the, the, the deep ball juice back. Man. Like he's been a bottom 10 quarterback true last two years at throwing the deep ball. So I don't know if that comes back and if it does, okay fine then, then light all my analysis on fire here. But if it doesn't and we keep getting this dink and dunk kind of offense and they keep doing the dink and dunk offense with Rasheed Rice whenever he comes back now they have Burchard Smith out of the backfield, Travis Kelsey and stuff. The Dinkin dunk offense can be better than what it was last year. And if Pacheco is running the ball better so like that can. They can run back the same game plan but be much more effective considering the parts of pieces that they have in this passing attack versus last year. And so I look at this passing attack and I'm like, yeah, when she Rice gets back, I want all the Rasheed Rice extremely high on him. Like I bumped him down. But we're all kind of projecting. We're. We're guessing on how, what, how long that suspension is. A lot of people said like six games. I think it's gonna be two to four games. If it's two games, his ADP literally shouldn't jump down very much, if at all. Like I met wide receiver 22 right now and I think with Rice, like I, I've. Pat, I know you're, you're chomping at the bit. Go ahead and tell me what you think about this with me going to running through that before I get my Rice diatribe here.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Can you blame Patrick Mahomes for not wanting to throw deep to MVS and Justin Watson? That's my thing now. He's going to be throwing deep to Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown. And, and I know coach speak is coach speak, but Andy Reid does keep talking about wanting to get more verticality into this passing game this year.
Seth Wilcock
No. And my problem with Mahomes, it's not the fact that he's not throwing deep. It's the fact that when he's thrown deep, he's been terrible at it. Like he's been bottom 10 in CPOE. Bottom 10 and catchable target rate.
Derrick Brown
So that's what he's throwing to. Too bad.
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm not gonna say, I'm not gonna say Patrick Mahomes can't throw the deep ball.
Seth Wilcock
Come on, the numbers say it. You don't have to say it.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Patty, who's throwing it to Zebra?
Seth Wilcock
Those numbers are agnostic of the wide receivers. Those are not. Those are catchable targets or not. That is not related to guys getting open being good receivers or bad receivers. That is Pat. That is, that is late because MVS.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Always brings in catchable targets.
Seth Wilcock
I'm not saying that old frying pan catches it. I'm not saying that at all. But what I am saying is like Patrick Rollins has not been good at the deep ball. And so I think we're going to go back to it's Going to be a lot of checkdowns. A lot of guys asked to create something after the catch. And so Rice, I know his role. He's going to get fed a ton of targets because that's what we saw last year. Like he had a 31.5% target share before he went out with injury. 3.6 yards per route run 41.2% First Read Share like all of these numbers are elite usage now maybe some of that changes and we we nerf some of that. So he gets a 27 target share. His yards per route run drops into the high twos. Those are still extremely good numbers. So Rice, I still want to be in on at cost. You can just count me out on Hollywood Brown. No, no no. Heck no. There's just no way like I don't trust him to stay healthy through the entirety of a season. I hope that he can but I can't see it at this point in his career because it's just time after time after time. This is what happens with Hollywood Brown. And even when he was healthy in the playoffs, dude, like he was not producing like in the postseason he had a 15 target share. He had 0.67 yards per route run. He had 0.040 first downs per route. Like that is basically non existent. So I'm not worried about Hollywood Brown and Teague Xavier Worthy. I I think he's going to go back to being the outside guy and being the field stretcher and if Mahomes is better as a deep ball pastor that's fine. But the thing with Worthy is we all lived in like we talk about weeks 13 through 17 when he played the Rishi Rice role. And I'll keep going back to this. He had a 25.6 design target rate. His ADOT dropped from 12.1 to 6.3. Those numbers mirror Rasheed Rice almost. I mean it's a Spider man meme man. And you look at what did Worthy do before he got that usage. Like we all talk about weeks 13 through 17 when when Worthy was the wide receiver 21 in fantasy points per game in that role. I'm also old enough to remember in weeks 1 through 12 when he was the wide receiver 51 in fantasy points per game and only commanding a 13.9 target share when he was only 96 in separation 111th in route win rate amongst 124 wide receivers in that time. So I'm burying Worthy. I don't really want to draft him. He's going to get a bump when Rice is out. Rice is about the only guy out of this passing attack that I want. Okay, outside of some late best ball shots on Jalen Royals because if Hollywood Brown can't stay healthy, Jalen Royals is going to crack the top starting three wide receivers. And I love Jalen Rose as a prospect. I hate that he went to Kansas City, but his pathway not for this season could be cleared up really quickly after the after this year as far as what he could get as far as targets coming up in next season. And I think he's viable as a last round pick in best ball right now because if Hollywood can stay healthy, if Rice gets the longer suspension, if Worthy can't be the guy that we all want him to be, some roads might lead back to Jalen Royals.
Derrick Brown
It's an interesting debate. Rasheed Rice, Xavier Worthy. Let us know down in the comments below your thoughts on this wide receiver room and all the wide receiver rooms we touched on today and that will do it for us on the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. We hope we helped you solve a couple of these depth chart dilemmas. Thanks so much for watching. As always, the best freeway Support us. Give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content. Also, make sure you're subscribing if you're new. For Pat Fitzmores and Derrick Brown, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take care y'. All. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
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Seth Wilcock
This is an iHeart podcast.
Release Date: July 28, 2025
Hosted by: Seth Wilcock, Pat Fitzmaurice, Derrick Brown (DBro)
Publisher: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
The episode kicks off with host Derrick Brown welcoming listeners to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. He introduces the topic of the day: analyzing some of the most complicated wide receiver (WR) rooms in the NFL, continuing from a previous episode that focused on running backs. Seth Wilcock and Pat Fitzmaurice join him to delve into the intricacies of WR depth charts across various teams.
Discussion Highlights:
Notable Quotes:
Analysis:
Conclusion: Both Jennings and Pearsall are considered valuable additions in fantasy drafts, while Aiyuk remains a potential sleeper with injury concerns.
Discussion Highlights:
Notable Quotes:
Analysis:
Conclusion: Dobbs emerges as the top WR value in Green Bay, with Williams as a potential breakout candidate if given sufficient opportunities. Other receivers present higher risks with lower upside.
Discussion Highlights:
Notable Quotes:
Analysis:
Conclusion: The Bears’ WR room is fraught with uncertainty, primarily hinging on Caleb Williams’ ability to effectively support multiple receivers. DJ Moore remains the safest pick, while Roma Dunes and Luther Burton require careful consideration.
Discussion Highlights:
Notable Quotes:
Analysis:
Conclusion: Rasheed Rice remains the primary target for high-risk, high-reward strategies, while Worthy and Royals provide conditional value based on team dynamics and Rice’s availability.
The panel wraps up by reiterating the complexities of each WR room discussed. They emphasize the importance of balancing risk and reward when drafting players from these tumultuous teams. The hosts encourage listeners to engage with their content through various platforms and participate in upcoming giveaways and live Q&A sessions.
Timestamp Highlights:
Quotes Integration: The summary incorporates direct quotes from hosts to highlight key opinions and insights, providing authenticity and depth to the analysis.
Engagement Encouraged: Throughout the episode, listeners are encouraged to interact via comments, subscriptions, and live sessions on Twitch, fostering a community-driven discussion around fantasy football strategies.
This comprehensive analysis provides fantasy football enthusiasts with a detailed overview of some of the most challenging WR rooms in the NFL, offering strategic insights and considerations for upcoming drafts.