Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Episode 1601 Title: FantasyPros - 12 RISKY Fantasy Football Players You Should Think Twice About Before Drafting in 2025

Release Date: June 29, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Wormley, Derek Brown, Pat Fitzmaurice
Description: In this episode, the hosts delve into twelve risky fantasy football players to consider carefully before drafting in the 2025 season. They analyze player performances, potential regressions, and strategic drafting considerations to help fantasy managers make informed decisions.

Introduction to Risky Players

Timestamp: [00:00 - 03:07]

Ryan Wormley kicks off the podcast by introducing the topic: identifying twelve risky fantasy football players for the 2025 draft. As the draft season approaches, Wormley emphasizes the importance of understanding player risks to optimize team selections. He directs listeners to fantasypros.com for consensus rankings and detailed staff insights.

Early Round Warnings

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown

Timestamp: [01:42 - 06:20]

Pat Fitzmaurice highlights Amon-Ra St. Brown as a typically low-risk player who warrants caution this year. Despite being a high performer in PPR formats over the past three years, St. Brown's fantasy points dipped from 20.7 in 2023 to 18.6 in 2024. Fitzmaurice points out that St. Brown's target rate dropped due to the emergence of Jameson Williams, limiting his potential for another stellar season. He questions the Detroit Lions' ability to maintain high touchdown totals without key players like Ben Johnson.

Notable Quote:
"Amon Ra's fantasy scoring was slightly down last year. He went from 20.7 PPR fantasy points per game in 2023 to 18.6 last year." — Pat Fitzmaurice [01:42]

Derek Brown concurs, expressing skepticism about St. Brown regaining his target volume and touchdown production, suggesting prioritizing other wide receivers over him in the first round.

2. Saquon Barkley

Timestamp: [07:00 - 12:57]

Derek Brown raises concerns about Saquon Barkley, citing his high volume of touches in the previous season as a potential red flag. He highlights the historical trend where high-volume running backs often experience efficiency dips, underperformance, or injuries. Brown references data since 2013, noting that only one running back has consistently replicated RB1 performance over consecutive seasons, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding Barkley's future performance.

Notable Quote:
"At running back and wide receiver in fantasy if you go back to 2013, Todd Gurley was the only running back to replicate RB1 and fantasy points per game seasons in back to back years in 2017-2018." — Derek Brown [07:00]

Pat Fitzmaurice maintains optimism, ranking Barkley at RB2 and believing that even with some regression, his numbers would justify an early first-round pick.

3. Lad McConkey

Timestamp: [13:48 - 19:34]

Pat Fitzmaurice discusses Lad McConkey, a wide receiver whose impressive efficiency last season may not be sustainable. Despite high yards per route run and target efficiency, Fitzmaurice doubts McConkey can maintain or exceed his target volume, especially with additions like Najee Harris and Trey Harris in the Chargers' offense. He anticipates McConkey falling behind peers like AJ Brown and Drake London in drafts.

Notable Quote:
"If he can't increase the efficiency numbers, and even with those high efficiency numbers, he was wide receiver 17 in PPR points per game among receivers who played at least eight games." — Pat Fitzmaurice [15:30]

Derek Brown echoes concerns about the Chargers' offensive dynamics, questioning whether McConkey's target share will grow and if the team's passing rate will support his fantasy value.

4. Tyreek Hill

Timestamp: [38:27 - 42:19]

Derek Brown identifies Tyreek Hill as a top-risk candidate due to aging concerns and declining performance metrics. Despite Hill's explosive play style, Brown points out significant drops in separation and route success rates, making him a precarious early-round pick.

Notable Quote:
"Tyreek is not gonna face Father Time. All these things are gonna happen. I'm just not there, man." — Derek Brown [38:27]

Pat Fitzmaurice aligns with this sentiment, placing Hill lower in his rankings and favoring younger, more consistent receivers like Mike Evans.

Mid-Round Warnings

5. David Montgomery

Timestamp: [43:18 - 45:41]

Pat Fitzmaurice expresses concerns over David Montgomery's role in the Lions' offense. With the potential rise of Jameer Gibbs and uncertainties surrounding the offensive line, Montgomery's touchdown-dependent profile poses a risk. He anticipates a possible decline in work volume and efficiency.

Notable Quote:
"I'm not expecting another league high 70 touchdowns out of the Lions with Ben Johnson no longer around." — Pat Fitzmaurice [43:18]

Derek Brown agrees, positioning Montgomery at RB22 and emphasizing the likelihood of a more committee-based backfield reducing his fantasy upside.

6. Chuba Hubbard

Timestamp: [46:18 - 50:50]

Derek Brown critiques Chuba Hubbard's inconsistent role in the Panthers' backfield. With new additions like Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne, Hubbard faces increased competition for touches, potentially limiting his effectiveness as a primary running back.

Notable Quote:
"In weeks one through nine with Hubbard and Miles Sanders, Hubbard played 54 to 83% of the snaps." — Derek Brown [46:18]

Pat Fitzmaurice remains slightly more optimistic, ranking Hubbard at RB17 and highlighting his solid yards after contact, though acknowledging potential role shifts.

7. Chris Godwin

Timestamp: [50:52 - 53:09]

Pat Fitzmaurice flags Chris Godwin as a risky mid-round pick due to a severe ankle injury and increased competition for targets with the addition of Emeka Igbuka. Godwin's recovery timeline and the uncertainty of his target share in a revamped offense make him a dubious value at his current draft position.

Notable Quote:
"Chris Godwin is going to carve himself off a pretty big chunk of that small piece." — Pat Fitzmaurice [50:52]

Derek Brown concurs, placing Godwin at WR34 and preferring other receivers with more stable roles and health statuses.

8. Marvin Harrison Jr.

Timestamp: [53:17 - 58:48]

Derek Brown questions the projected surge for Marvin Harrison Jr., doubting the ability of the Cardinals' offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, to effectively utilize Harrison in varying offensive schemes. He expresses skepticism about Harrison's ability to handle more vertical routes and maintain his separation metrics.

Notable Quote:
"I do not know if Drew Petzing is magically going to roll out of bed in the year 2025 and do smarter things with Marvin Harrison Jr. in a role that he was ill equipped to perform in." — Derek Brown [53:17]

Pat Fitzmaurice shares similar reservations, highlighting concerns over Harrison's route efficiency and the quarterback's affinity for shorter passes, placing him at WR18.

Additional Risky Mid-Round Players

9. Chris Olave

Timestamp: [55:55 - 59:05]

Pat Fitzmaurice considers Chris Olave a risky yet potentially rewarding late-round pick. Despite Olave's past performance and route-running prowess, his concussion history and uncertain quarterback situation in the Saints' offense add layers of risk.

Notable Quote:
"Olave is a terrific route runner. Olave is big time speed. Olave has averaged 2.21 yards per route run for his career, which is excellent." — Pat Fitzmaurice [55:55]

Derek Brown places Olave at WR30, emphasizing that his fantasy output heavily depends on quarterback performance and offensive consistency.

10. Rasheed Rice

Timestamp: [59:33 - 63:03]

Derek Brown brings Rasheed Rice into the discussion as a high-upside yet risky pick due to his past suspensions and competition within the Chiefs' offense. While Rice showed explosive potential early in the season, uncertainties about his role and health status make him a speculative draft choice.

Notable Quote:
"Rasheed Rice has an insane upside. Just looking at how he started last year and even if you wanted to take tackle on how he finished the year previous." — Derek Brown [59:33]

Pat Fitzmaurice is hesitant, citing Xavier Worthy's emerging role in the offense as a factor that could limit Rice's target share, placing him at WR32.

Conclusion

Timestamp: [63:03 - 66:39]

The hosts wrap up by reiterating the importance of evaluating player risks against their potential rewards. Ryan Wormley encourages listeners to leverage tools like Draft Intel from Fantasy Pros to better understand league trends and make strategic draft decisions. The episode concludes with brief mentions of promotional content, which are skipped in this summary.

Key Takeaways:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown and Saquon Barkley remain high-value players but carry risks related to target volume and historical performance consistency.
• Wide receivers like Lad McConkey, Tyreek Hill, and Marvin Harrison Jr. present efficiency and age-related concerns.
• Mid-round running backs such as David Montgomery and Chuba Hubbard face competition and role uncertainties within their respective teams.
• Late-round picks like Chris Olave and Rasheed Rice offer high upside but come with injury histories and offensive scheme questions.

Fantasy managers are advised to weigh these risks against their team's needs and consider diversifying their draft strategies to mitigate potential setbacks from these players.