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The Herd with Colin Cowherd
FantasyPros - 12 RISKY Fantasy Football Players You Should Think Twice About Before Drafting in 2025 (Ep. 1601)
01:02:21
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- [00:00]
Ryan Wormley
This is an iHeart podcast. AI is redefining what's possible for your business. With more unique challenges to solve and higher stakes than ever, Microsoft helps you stay ahead. Our trustworthy AI tools and guidance can empower leaders like you to drive greater impact. And with Azure's simplified platform management, we're helping businesses go further, faster, unlocking up to 150% improved output. Whatever challenge comes next, let Microsoft help you keep pushing forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com challengers hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Wormley, joined today by Derek Brown and by Pat Fitzmaurice. Fellas, we are talking some risky players to think twice about drafting in 2025. Quick reminder for everybody, as always, all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found@ fantasypros.com rankings. That's where you can find ECR or expert consensus rankings from around the league. You can also of course navigate to our staff rankings. You can see where Fitz has these guys ranked, you can see where deeper has these guys ranked and get a little more detail on that if you so choose. As we get closer and closer to draft season, basically like a month and a half away at this point, which is both terrifying and exciting. Let's go ahead and dive right in guys. We've got early round warnings. We're going to kind of go through some early round guys, then mid round, then maybe look at some other guys that we are interested in drafting and these could necessarily be guys that we are still willing to draft. But there are risks. We want to think about it. Think twice, I should say, about whether or not we're going to click draft on draft day. Fitz, let's start with you in the early round warnings. Who do you have here? That's risky.
- [01:42]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh man, people are going to be mad at me for this one and I think this is someone people generally regard as one of the least risky players. But I, I think there's kind of a risk to taking Amun Ra St. Brown. He has become this sacred cow and for good reason. Like in PPR fantasy scoring, Amon Ra St Brown has been wide receiver 7, wide receiver 3 and wide receiver 3 the last three years. But here's the thing. Amon Ra's fantasy scoring was slightly down last year. He went from 20.7 PPR fantasy points per game in 2023 to 18.6 last year. Now that's still high level production, no doubt, but for Amon Ross St. Brown to get within two fantasy points per game of where he was in 2023, he needed to have a career high 12 touchdowns and catch an outrageous 81.6% of his targets. His catch rate had been 72.6 the previous two seasons, so it was a spike of 9 percentage points. And it's because his targets fell off. Like Amon RA averaged 10.3 targets per game in 2023, only 8.3 last year. I think the emergence of Jameson Williams was a big reason for that. And Jamo is here to stay. So it's hard to see Amon Rock Getting back to 10 targets a game. It's also kind of hard to see him scoring another 12 touchdowns. The Detroit Lions scored a league high 70 touchdowns last season. No other team had more than 65. And without Ben Johnson running the offense, are the Lions sniffing 70 touchdowns again?
- [03:08]
Derek Brown
No way.
- [03:09]
Pat Fitzmaurice
So it's not that I think Amon Ra St. Brown is going to be a bust. Really. I think he's absolutely a first round pick. I just think he should go at the end of the first round rather than in the middle, which is where he usually goes. And not only am I taking Jamar Chase, CD Lam, Justin Jefferson over Amon Ra, I'm also taking Brian Thomas, Puka Naku and Malik Neighbors over Amun Ra.
- [03:30]
Ryan Wormley
Dibro, you have long been a huge fan of Amun Ra. What do you think about when you hear Fitz kind of laying this case, why he's actually a risk this year?
- [03:38]
Derek Brown
I don't really disagree with it, man. I, I do think the touchdowns are a little bit more replicable in the sense that he was second in the NFL and red zone target. So I mean, maybe that goes down if they're making less trips to the red zone because they're less efficient. The other thing about this is, and I know the departure of Aaron Glenn, but what if this defense is healthier in 2025? What if they're in less neutral game scripts? What they're actually leading? I mean, well behind a little bit more. Like what the defense is actually better because dude, they got decimated last year. I mean their entire defensive line got hurt. Cornerbacks were in and out. If their defense is better, maybe they're in positive game scripts, more running. So I do understand like where Fitz is coming from. And I mean I'm kind of with Fitzy. Like Fitzy, where do you have Almond Ron ranked? Because I've got him at wide receiver 8 and people could be surprised by that.
- [04:26]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Like same.
- [04:27]
Derek Brown
I, I have Drake London and Nico Collins ahead of him.
- [04:30]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I don't I don't have those two ahead of him, but like I can understand the case for both guys. So.
- [04:37]
Derek Brown
But to your point, I also have Puka and Brian Thomas Jr. Ahead of him too. So I'm, I'm, I'm absolutely with you on this one.
- [04:44]
Ryan Wormley
I'm with you guys too. Deeper. To what degree are you discounting Lions players in general because of the loss of Ben Johnson? Like, how much is that weighing on your decision making when laying out these rankings?
- [04:56]
Derek Brown
Honestly, not a ton and only because I subscribe to that. I think that people don't give Dan Campbell enough credit because that like he is involved in those offensive meetings. He is actually an offensive minded head coach. If you go back to it, just because he's more of the rah, rah, rah, rub some dirt on it type, everybody's like, oh, he must be a defensive minded guy. No, like he played tight end. He was an offensive minded guy coming up through the ranks. So I'm not as worried about the Ben Johnson departure as everybody else is. I do think all these guys are pricey because that's kind of the price tag that comes with being in one of the best offenses, if not arguably the best offense in the NFL. So those price tags are going to come with these guys. But I'm kind of at consensus or below on a lot of them only because I see an easier path. And the reason I'm like I'm picking Drakelin and Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr. Those guys have an easier and more likely path to being wide receiver one overall in their range of outcomes than somebody like Amon Ra, which even when everything went great for him over the last two years, you're talking about a guy that topped out. And I'm saying topped out because he was a freaking top five wide receiver. He was wide receiver four in each of the last two years in fantasy points per game. So like those are really freaking good seasons. It's awesome. But does he have a path, like a conceivable path to wide receiver 1 overall? Probably not if all these guys stay healthy.
- [06:21]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, Nico is somebody I already had ahead of Amon Ra. And the more you're talking about it, I think I might have Drake London ahead of him too. When all is said and done. But like to your point, Nico is a guy you can paint the picture for. If it goes well, he could be wide receiver one. It's really, it's harder to paint that picture with St. Brown. Let's go to a guy who just was RB1 and now we're saying is risky. We've actually talked about Saquon Barkley a couple of times on recent shows. Dbro it's interesting to see a name like this who just won people leagues last year and yet some of the volume stuff, which is what I assume you're going to say, you can easily paint the picture for why maybe he should be at least some warning flags up as well. Saquon Barkley, why is he risky for you?
- [07:01]
Derek Brown
To me it's not one or two things, it's the sum of all of the parts. And I'm just going to lay this out guys and this comes down to pick your flavor of regression because there's so many different parts of the Philadelphia Eagles offense to where we could point to and say okay well this could regress, this could regress. And I'll just lay out the case here guys. One they had the fewest passing attempts in the NFL. They are going to throw more this year. The question is not if it's how much. Second of all they had the most second most positive game script plays last year and I'm not telling you the defense is going to be bottom five and that's going to make them be so pass heavy. But we do see defenses year in and year out they ebb and flow. So are the Eagles going to take a step back in that and the reason I bring up the positive game script stuff is because in the second half of NFL games last year this team was leading the freaking NFL in POS in second half rushing rate with 60.4%. The the next closest team was Baltimore at 53%. That is a wide chasm. Okay, so we got those two different points. Three different points also yes Worm, we could talk about the volume since 2010 Saquon Barkley and this is including regular season and playoffs just finished with the second most touches in a season behind only DeMarco Murray. He had 482 combined touches Murray in that season at 497. Okay, we know the history of high volume seasons at the running back and how that usually turns out. It's usually efficiency, dip, underperformance or injury. I don't want to be forecasting injuries but that's usually how it works out. Point back to CMC last year and everybody hated that call when we made it to and again the last thing I'm going to say here is you are in a better spot year over year if you expect a new RB one to step forward than asking the same thing to happen that happened in the previous season, the likelihood of that happening is really, really slim. At running back and wide receiver in fantasy if you go back to 2013, Todd Gurley was the only running back to replicate RB1 and fantasy points per game seasons in back to back years in 2017-2018. So since 2013 he's the only running back. And if you go that's only because that's all I could pull the data as far back. If you go back even farther, the trend still continues to repeat itself. I think it's only Priest Holmes that did it two years in a row. So again, no RB in that sample size since 2019 has repeated as the RB1 in fantasy points per game. So I'm just saying with pick your spot of progression, one of these or multiple spots of here is going to hit and Saquon's not going to be the RB one this year.
- [09:47]
Ryan Wormley
So before I throw it at Fitz because I obviously want to get his opinion as well. Dbro, when you lay out all that at the end of the day, where does that leave Saquon ranked for you both? I'm curious in terms of amongst the running backs and in terms of like where in the first round are you considering drafting him?
- [10:04]
Derek Brown
I've got him at RB4. I have Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs and actually Ashton Genty above him. And people, the biggest problem people have so far that I've heard from the YouTube comments and stuff is Genti. Okay, I just want Saquon Barkley at his rookie season and not Saquon Barkley getting older. I'd rather much rather that. And for overall I've got Saquon. I mean he's my ninth overall player. I've got a ton of wide receivers. Like I've got Jefferson Lamb, actually a Brian Thomas Jr and Pukinakua ahead of Jameer Gibbs, Ashton Genti and Saquon at the tail end of the first round. So people follow my ranks. They're not going to get Saquon in many drafts, if any.
- [10:41]
Ryan Wormley
Amongst the running back Steve Row, Christian McCaffrey is one that stands out. Who's behind him. Would you consider CMC ahead of Saquon? If we're saying like, you know, things change every year. If CMC is now the healthy one and Saquon coming off this workload like is is there a case to be made for that? Or maybe like a Derrick Henry who was almost as good as Saquon last year and has been a guy who has been kind of built different like in Tennessee and Now, his first year in Baltimore in terms of aging not really getting to him. Is there a case for some of those guys to knock Saquon even lower down the list or are you comfortable with him at 4?
- [11:10]
Derek Brown
I'm comfortable with him at 4. There is a case for CMC over him and I think you're going to see maybe some ranking like I've got Saquon and RB4 and I've got CMC at RB5. So if you're telling me in training camp we're getting all the buzz at cmc, it looks like he CMC and stuff, I wouldn't have a problem putting him above Saquon fits.
- [11:28]
Ryan Wormley
On a show we did with you, me and Erickson earlier this week, we kind of talked draft or pass and we talked about Saquon. He was somebody that you were drafting as high as RB2. Do you still feel that way? It's only been a few days, but from the last time we did a show, do you still feel that way?
- [11:41]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I've got him at RB2 and 4th overall and I'll sort of repeat my stance on Saquon. Like I agree with a lot of what DBRO is saying and the, the 482 touch thing, like really is. Is terrifying. Like what if Saquon breaks down a year after getting this ridiculous workload that, you know, only DeMarco Murray has has seen before? He maybe misses some games, but I'm still pretty confident that as long as Saquon is playing, he is going to produce big numbers. And I agree with D Row, like yeah, he could regress in some areas. Although I do think the Eagles are still going to be one of the run heavier teams in the league, if not as crazily run heavy as they were last season. So we could definitely get like a lesser season from Saquon. But man, after a season in which he had almost 2,300 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns, we could fall back to like 1700 yards from scrimmage, 10 or 11 touchdowns and still be pretty content with that with an early first round pick. So, you know, I, I still feel pretty comfortable with him. He, he's not my RB one, Bijan Robinson is. But I, I still feel okay about drafting Saquon early on.
- [12:57]
Ryan Wormley
I feel like there's a lot of running backs in the top eight or so who are terrifying to both draft and pass, like Saquon. It's a little, it's scary right, coming off the volume, but it's also kind of scary to pass and say this dude was winning leagues last year and is in basically the same situation. I, I say Christian McCaffrey. It's scary to pass on a guy who now seems healthier and has been the number one overall running back but has this injury history. It's, it's scary to draft or pass on. Devon Hn, I think like petting on to his health, like it's just. I. There's a lot of guys where you can really easily, I think paint the picture of a very high end season but also kind of falling off and really hurting you if you took them early amongst the running backs in this range. So Saquon, obviously the guy coming off the best season of those, which is why he's ranked where he is. Fitz, let's go to your next early round. Risky player.
- [13:48]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, it's lad McConkey and I don't think a lot of people are going to see him as a risk either. LAD was, you know, undeniably awesome as a rookie and his rookie year just kept getting better and better as it went on, culminating in a 197 yard game in the Chargers wild card loss to the Texans. Here's the thing though. Lad McConkey had 112 targets last season. He ranked 26th in targets and only missed one game. So granted there was a target uptick for him later in the season. If we break his season in half, he was at 6.5 targets per game over his first eight regular season games, 7.5 over his last eight. But still, if we say lad is going to average 7.5 targets and not miss a game this season, that works out to 128 targets, which would have ranked 19th last year. And he had terrific efficiency numbers, 2.59 yards per outrun, 10.3 yards per target. He'll have strong efficiency numbers again because he's a really good player, but no wide receivers, maintaining 2.59 yards per outrun and 10.3 yards per target over the long haul. Well, okay, maybe one guy because Justin Jefferson has averaged 2.60 yards per out run and 10.2 yards per target over his career. But Jamar Chase, 2.23 yards per outrun, 9.3 yards per target. CD Lamb, 2.25 yards per outrun, 8.8 yards per target. Hard to keep up the crazy efficiency that Ladd gave us last year. So if he can't increase the efficiency numbers, and even with those high efficiency numbers, he was wide receiver 17 in PPR points per game among receivers who played at least eight games. So lad would need more target volume to give a solid wide receiver one stat. I don't know if he's going to get a target bump this year. Like the Chargers signed Najee Harris and drafted o' Marion Hampton, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman want to run the crap out of the ball. And Chargers also drafted Trey Harris, Debro favorites. And now they might have another credible pass catching threat, maybe more if The Orande Gadsden Jr. Minicamp hype is to be believed. So I'm seeing Lad McConkey go ahead of AJ Brown and Drake London in some basketball drafts and I just, I think that's a bridge too far. As much as I like Lad, I'm kind of gently fading him in my drafts this year.
- [16:12]
Ryan Wormley
DBRO it feels like Lad is one of those guys who is very settled into his consensus ranking. Like he's he's currently 11th in ECR and I think maybe you could make the case for oh, I actually have him 12th or maybe as high as 10. But I don't see a ton of people making the case that he should be like, oh, he's way undervalued, he should be up there at 6. Or he's way overvalued, he should be down at 18. It feels like his range of not outcomes, but of where he's being ranked as a preseason draft prospect is pretty solidified. That doesn't mean he can't be risky, but it means there seems to be a lot of general consensus around him. You have him? I think it's 12th. I don't know if you've updated these rankings since last time. I'm looking at them. But you also have him in that range. How do you view lad McConkey in terms of a risky guy to draft or not?
- [16:58]
Derek Brown
I see some of the risk. Like my biggest thing is what version of the Chargers offense do we get this year? Because when we look at how the totality of last year, I mean down the back half so week seven through 18 they ranked eighth in neutral passing rate and sixth in pass rate over expectation. And I know there was a lot of injuries to the backfield. They sense like fortified the backfield to the draft of free agency. I guess I'm kind of wondering where does the pass rate go for Ladd McConkey this year in this offense that and can he. Because as good as he was and Fitz nailed it like the the efficiency was otherworldly, which is a reflection of talent. We should believe in talent all that kind of stuff. Believe in second year wide receivers. My, my questions on lad are twofold. One, I, I do have him at wide receiver 13, so I'm slightly below consensus on him, but within striking distance, depending on where, you know, where he's falling in drafts, which, so people will get exposure to him. But my, my, my questions for lads outcome this year are with the pass rate. What does that have? Like, as long as the Chargers aren't a bottom five pass rate team, I think there's still a path for Lad. The other part about it is, as good as he was, he still only had a 22.9% target share after week seven. So can lad in his second year bump up from the 22, 23% range? Can he get into that 25 to 27% range? Hell, 80, can he get to 30%? You know, because I mean, look, as much as I love Trey Harris, he's a rookie. Even if he pops like, Lad should still be the clear leader of this passing attack. And outside of him, who's a high end target earner? A proven high end target earner. So can he bump up the target rate and become even more of a target hog? And what does the pass rate look like? So I see the path for Lad out producing this adp, like in this, this ranking, but not by a ton, man. Like, I think in the best cases, scenarios, like even during that stretch, he was still, what, wide receiver? 11 and fantasy points per game. So like we're all drafting him and saying, okay, repeat what you do. Like, is he a guy that you're going to draft and you say he does have top five upside? That's where it's like, you really got to squint to see it. And I don't know if I see top five upside. To Fitz's point, he kind of feels like more of a guy. We're asking to replicate what happened last year. I think there's a path to do it, but it's. Some things kind of go right and some of these things, we just don't know what the Chargers want to do.
- [19:25]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, if you had to guess, like, if I told you to put a number ranking to it, where do you think the Chargers offense finishes this year in terms of passing rate?
- [19:34]
Pat Fitzmaurice
30Th.
- [19:35]
Ryan Wormley
30Th. Okay, so you do see them as definitely bottom five.
- [19:38]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh yeah, dude. Like, I mean, how much more could they telegraph what they want to do on offense? By signing Najee Harrison, drafting Omarion Hampton in the first round, they are going to run the ball like crazy. And it's Greg Roman Worm. You're, you're a Ravens fan. You should know what Greg Roman wants to do.
- [19:54]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, the one thing I would say about Greg Roman is that Herbert's the best passer he's ever coached. So I, I'm not, I'm not closed off to the possibility that he does, he does want to pass more now that he has a great passer. Like his other stops have been largely with great running quarterbacks. So at least at that point in his career where Lamar was when he was with Lamar. And I wonder if the running back edition is more just they don't want to be terrible there. Like what kind of late season J.K. dobbins and Gus Edwards was washed and I wonder if it's more like we, we refuse to be bad at this position as opposed to we're now going to run it, you know, the third most times in football. But that's definitely on the table. Like, I don't say that with a degree of confidence.
- [20:36]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Greg Roman is a descendant of the prehistoric play callers of the NFL. He draws his plays up on a cave wall.
- [20:45]
Ryan Wormley
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- [21:39]
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- [24:13]
Ryan Wormley
Debra, who's your next risky Player.
- [24:16]
Derek Brown
Oh, I know Fitzy's probably not going to like this one. It's Jonathan Taylor, man. The low hanging fruit here is worry about the offensive ecosystem he's living in with the quarterback situation. How often are they going to get in the red zone? So I mean that's, that's the easy thing to sit here and pick apart here, but for me it also comes down to Jonathan Taylor just at the player and the efficiency. Last year we saw he dropped off a map going from a guy that I've had in that Nick Chubb type of filem as far as rushing efficiency, tackle breaking. The explosive run rate was still there for Jonathan Taylor last year, but the tackle breaking was not. And yes, we can point to is that some of okay, he was hurt last year and playing through an injury and stuff, but that's kind of been Jonathan Taylor's game over the last few years. But amongst 46 qualifying running backs last year, Jonathan Taylor 42nd in missed tackles force per attempt, 44th in yards at a contact per attempt. Only Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb were worse than Jonathan Taylor in that metric last year. And going back to the health, I mean, dude has dealt with ankle injuries basically his entire career. He's had the last year of the high ankle sprain. He's had ankle injuries in each of the last three seasons. And the other part of this is, is the passing game. If, if the efficiency dips the volume, the, the efficiency of this offense dips. Does JT have the run out to get past game usage or the efficiency that could save him if those things go wrong? He, he hasn't and I don't think it's going to change with. Regardless of whoever on that depth chart is going to be playing quarterback this year, I don't think that's going to be there. And Jonathan Taylor last year was 37th in target share and 43rd in yards per route run and first downs per out run. So JT just feels like the sexier version of Kyron Williams to me and it's just not a player archetype that, that I'm really interested in.
- [26:08]
Ryan Wormley
I think Fitz might be closer to Debro's stance on this than Debro thinks, even despite interesting homerism just based on where he's ranked because Fitz does have him a couple spots below ECR.
- [26:19]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I've got him at RB10. Oh, in half point PPR.
- [26:25]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, RB8 in ECR. Just.
- [26:27]
Derek Brown
I've got him at RB13. So I mean we, we're basically riding together then Fitzy, I'm surprised by this.
- [26:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm trying not to be a Wisconsin homer this year. I think I'm below consensus on both Jonathan Taylor and Jake Ferguson. So yeah, I mean, I have kind of the same concerns. I do think a healthy Jonathan Taylor is still one of the best peer runners in the NFL. So like the numbers that Debro cites, I think would be better if he were fully healthy. But the health is obviously a concern. I think as Deborah mentioned that the ankle thing, I remember arguing with Evan Silva about this last year before the season and Evan turned out to be right. He's like, I think the ankle issues are chronic. And sure enough, like Taylor winds up getting another ankle issue. So he's missed eight games due to ankle problems over the last three years. Ongoing concern. He's also had fewer than 20 receptions each of the last two years and it's hard to see the reception total spiking when the quarterbacks are Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. So yeah, I'm a little tepid on JT as well.
- [27:33]
Ryan Wormley
Where's the round fits that you're willing to draft Taylor? Like where in those early rounds would you say, okay, I'm taking the swing.
- [27:39]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, like later or second would be fine.
- [27:42]
Ryan Wormley
Is it more early third for you? Dbra.
- [27:45]
Derek Brown
He's a back into the third pick for me, so probably not gonna get him. I don't know where. Where's he at in overall ranks? Worm? 19th.
- [27:54]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah.
- [27:54]
Derek Brown
So people thought I'm like around and a half behind ECR.
- [27:58]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, 22.
- [28:01]
Ryan Wormley
His ADP for the record is is aligned with ECR at amongst the running backs at RB8. So it doesn't seem like a guy that you guys will be getting much of. I don't think I will be getting a lot of Jonathan Taylor either. Let's go to your next player here, Fitz. We're moving to a tight end now.
- [28:16]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah. Hockey season is over, but Debro and I are going to drop the gloves on this one and spoiler alert, I'm going to pull his sweater over his head and start pummeling away at him. It's Trey McBride who has a late second round ADP. I think he's a third round value and I've got him ranked behind Brock Bowers and George kittle. But Trey McBride is DBRO's tight end. One more on that in a minute. So McBride is coming off a wonderful season. 111 catches, 1146 yards, 2.12 yards per route run, which is a really good number. He's a stud. No question. I'm just not taking him ahead of JSN Garrett, Wilson, Chase Brown, Kyron Williams or George Kittle for that matter, all of whom have lower ADPs than Trey McBride. I have two issues with McBride relative to his cost. First off, I know people are waiting for him to have better luck with touchdowns and I wouldn't be surprised if he put up a good touchdown total this season. It's certainly reasonable to think he'll beat his previous season best touchdown total, which is three. But like the poor TD totals are a chronic thing for this guy. McBride has six touchdowns in 49 NFL games over three seasons. In his final college season at Colorado State, 90 receptions, one touchdown, which by the way he didn't get until his last game of his college career. Didn't have more than four touchdowns in any other college season. So in his last seven years of organized football his high end touchdowns is four. Like maybe Trey McBride is just a guy who isn't going to give us many touchdowns. The other thing you have to think that Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing spent the off season trying to figure out ways to better utilize Marvin Harrison Jr. Like the number four overall pick in the draft, MHJ had an average depth of target of 13.4 yards. Like he was totally miscast as this vertical receiver. Something has to change. And now dbro, to your credit, you are consistent with the story you tell with your rankings. You have McBride as the tight end one and you're skeptical about Marvin Harrison Jr. You've got him ranked as a wide receiver three. Now I tend to think we get different usage and better numbers for Marvin Harrison Jr. In year two, which likely means at least a slight haircut in targets and receptions for Trey McBride. I do think McBride is really good and I can understand why most people have him ranked ahead of George Kittle, even though I prefer Kittle. But Dbro McBride over Brock Bowers is bat guano crazy man. And let me tell you why it's really not. But we'll get to it. McBride was a very good tight end prospect coming out of college. Brock Bowers may have been the best tight end prospect ever. McBride put in two seasons building towards his 111 catch 1100 yard breakout. In year three. Brock Bowers had 112 catches and 1100 yards as a rookie. Bowers is just on another level man. Like he and Trey McBride are not comparable.
- [31:19]
Derek Brown
All right, well gloves are off. All right Betsy, let's go. All right, so I do have Trey McBride and we're going to talk about Marvin Harrison Jr. Don't worry people, we're going to talk about him later in this episode. So McBride has, and I want to be very clear when I say this, McBride has league defining league winner upside this year. If you look at how bad his touchdown luck was last year, it wasn't because of usage. It's straight up. Like sometimes players run bad in touchdowns. We talk about this all the time. Touchdowns are the flukiest thing every year. I'm old enough. Fitzy where I lived in a world once where we talked about George Kittle can't score touchdowns, that's not a problem these days. We've talked about that with other players. We talked about that. You remember we're all living in this world where we talked about that at one point with Almond Ross saying Brown. That hasn't been an issue the last two years because to begin his season he was more in the Keenan Allen mold and wasn't scoring touchdowns. So McBride, I think we're talking about a player that it has been the ultimate run bad with touchdowns. He was second in red zone targets amongst tight ends last year. So the touchdowns are coming. But also we're discussing a player that literally led as good as Bowers was last year. Trey McBride amongst 47 qualifying tight ends. First in target share, second and receiving yards per game, 13 yards per route run first and first downs. He was top three in every single freaking metric I can find. And the only thing that went bad for him last year was touchdowns. Nothing has changed in Arizona as far as the constitution of this offense. Arizona's running it back, same dudes. So for me, I have a hard time getting my wrapping my head around the rational coaching of Drew Petzing is not going to do dumb stuff with the same exact players that he had last year. And even if he does change up Marvin Harrison Jr's route tree, which I think he should, these two guys, I mean they're the twin pillars of this passing attack. They're both going to soak up north of 25, 27% target shares if everything goes right. And Trey McBride and the reason I say he has league defining upside last year, if the touchdowns were where they should have been, based off of his volume and usage and everything, this guy was the he. So he scored 15.6 fantasy points per game last year. His expected fantasy points per game and I know that wasn't real, but based off of the volume, the expected fantasy points per game he should have scored was 19.2 points. Boys, that is Travis Kelsey first round league defining type of Production to where if you compare him across other positions, that spot would have made Trey McBride the wide receiver three in fantasy points per game last year and the RB5 in fantasy points per game last year. That is a first round, league defining league winning player. The touchdowns happen this year. McBride will win people leagues and tilt the math in his favor.
- [34:22]
Ryan Wormley
Dbro, if you had to guess right now, like just project how many touchdowns he's going to have this year, what number would you put it at? What, like what range are we thinking that you think will be not expected, but the actual touchdown total this year?
- [34:35]
Derek Brown
Seven to eight.
- [34:36]
Ryan Wormley
Okay.
- [34:37]
Derek Brown
I think, I think, I think he's going to have a big swing. I do.
- [34:40]
Ryan Wormley
To me, and I know this is a little bit different for you, Fitz, because you actually do have Kittle ranked ahead. But for somebody like you, dbro, to me the biggest case for somebody like Kittle is that if you have them close and I think you do because you are also high on George Kittle this year.
- [34:54]
Derek Brown
I am very high.
- [34:55]
Ryan Wormley
He's going based on ECR as an early fourth rounder, whereas Trey McBride is a late second rounder. That's like a round and a half of value for a guy that you think is also very, very good. To me that's the case for, you know, not taking somebody like McBride is if you think you can get Kittle a little bit later. I do think McBride should be ranked higher though. Like it's funny because Deeper has Cherry McBride tight end one, Fitz has him tight end three. I've got him tight end two, which I think is. It's not. I think it is in line with consensus, you know, behind only Brock Bowers. But I tend to lean closer to the debro side of this argument just in terms of the upside and how excited I would be to have Trey McBride on my team. I guess. Let me ask you this, Fitz. How much of your worry with Trey McBride and your argument against him and it's not like you have him buried in your rankings. He's tight end three for you. But how much of you, relatively speaking, fading McBride is strictly that touchdown production as opposed to all the other factors that you laid out.
- [35:55]
Pat Fitzmaurice
That is maybe more than half the reason. But I also like D. Barrows underplaying the Marvin Harrison Jr. Thing. I think like this is a mandate for Drew Petzing. Like if he can't do it, fine, but then he's going to get fired after this year. They spent the number four pick in the draft.
- [36:13]
Derek Brown
That could happen.
- [36:14]
Pat Fitzmaurice
He could suck again if he sucks again like Patsing is gone because like it is the mandate of Drew Petsing and you got to think he has spent some late nights during this off season trying to figure out how to best utilize mhj. So like and maybe maybe it doesn't happen and they lean heavily on Trey McBride again and Kyler just feels much more comfortable throwing these short little passes to Trey. I get it. But you know and like we'll see on the touchdown thing I could be wrong. I I do probably expect a new career high although I think it might be closer to like six than seven or eights. You know it's been a multi year run of we'll find out if it's just like this multi year run of bad touchdown luck or if this is just like his thing where he is never going to be a prolific touchdown score. That could go either way.
- [37:04]
Derek Brown
The last thing I'll mention here before we transition Worm is one other thing about the Arizona Cardinals offense that is not talked about enough is they leaned extremely pass heavy towards the back half of last year so the volume for all these players could go up. Weeks 12 through 18 Last year Arizona was fourth in neutral script passing rate. The only teams that were higher were the Bengals, the Chiefs and the Texans I think.
- [37:30]
Ryan Wormley
So the reason and we'll move off it after this point the reason Fitz that I asked about how much the touchdown thing is weighing on your your fading of him here is because I think the better case for being lower on training pride is the anticipation of Marvin Harrison Jr. Taking a step forward because last year Trey McBride had two receiving touchdowns, one rushing touchdown and he was still, he was tight end two in PPR. Tight end three and a half PPR. So even if the tight ends, even if the touchdowns don't come, he is still giving you based on the usage last year a top three tight end floor. It's the idea that the usage might not be the same. I think that is the more if you're going to make the case of him as risky the one where you could see him actually falling off and being a bad pick.
- [38:12]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah and and like no question there is a gigantic Grand Canyon type drop off from number three. However you want to order the top three to whoever's in number four.
- [38:22]
Derek Brown
Yeah yeah, agreed.
- [38:24]
Ryan Wormley
All right D bro, let's go to your next early round. Risky player.
- [38:27]
Derek Brown
Oh good lord. I don't know how anybody wants to draft Tyreek Hill but he's a back in ECR as a top 15 wide receiver. People are just saying yep, top five sailing two is going to stay healthy. Tyreek's not gonna face Father Time. All these things are gonna happen. I'm just not there, man. Aging wide receivers, Father Time is undefeated. Tyreek is being ranked with a lot of hopium and not near where his production was last year. I mean weeks 8 through 16 with 2 a back wide receiver 24 in fantasy points per game, which is actually very generous considering he was outside the top 30 wide receivers in target share and yards per route run. You look at 112 qualifying wide receivers last year, the per route metrics fell off guys 28th in separation, 48th and route win rate. That's not a player that I want to be drafting inside of the top 20 at wide receivers. With all of that risk, an aging declining player. And we haven't even discussed like the Tyreek just being Tyreek kind of stuff. Like can we not like talk about like it's a non zero chance that he pulls off his jersey, pulls an A B and says screw you guys, I'm out at halftime and by week eight or Mike McDaniels is fired and this entire team just goes into the freaking can. So no, I don't want to draft Tyreek Hill. No, I don't think he has 2000 yard receiving upside. No, I don't think he has top five wide receiver upside in fantasy. I feel like this is one of the landmines of fantasy draft season. I'm not drafting Tyreek Hill this year.
- [40:02]
Ryan Wormley
I don't really have a lot to add to this one because I like totally agree. He's just not somebody at cost that I really have any interest in. There's just too many. I think he's a prime example of a very risky player and there's just too many risks for me to be interested. Fitz, you're not like well ahead of where Deborah has him ranked, but you are a couple spots higher than Deborah on Hill in terms of the wide receiver rankings.
- [40:21]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, wide receiver 19. So below consensus above where Debro has him. And you have to at least consider the possibility that they restore some of the verticality to the Miami passing game if they're confident they can, you know, adequately protect tua, which is not a given because I do not like the Miami offensive line this year. So yeah, I don't think we're seeing another 1700 yard season out of Tyreek. Maybe like 1200 is, is doable if, if things get good again and maybe gets back to double digit touchdowns. But I do like Deborah, have concerns about how well, he ages with his game. Like I think Mike Evans game is probably going to age better than Tyreek Hill's game.
- [41:08]
Derek Brown
Yes.
- [41:08]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Because Evans does not do it with athleticism and speed. He does it by being a superior rebounder. And like the contested catch ability is not going to disappear that quickly with age. So yeah, I'm kind of drafting around Tyreek myself.
- [41:26]
Derek Brown
Mike Evans and Devonte Adams should not be ranked behind Tyreek Hill. And yet in ecr, this is what we're seeing.
- [41:32]
Ryan Wormley
I was gonna say when I, when I look at like these names and if I want to throw like either or at you guys on the show like Tyree Kill or so and so if I look at our staff rankings, he's around names where I, I'm a lot more willing to make that, you know, oh, would you rather take Tyree killer, Marvin Harrison Jr. Or Tyree Kill or Ted McMillan, Tyreek Hill or DK Metcalf? I think those are reasonable questions to ask. But if you look in ecr, the names that he's around where you say, oh, would you rather have Tyreek Hill or it's Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hiller, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hiller, T Higgin, Tyreek Hiller, Devonte Adams and to me it's very easy, not Tyreek Hill in any of those scenarios. Like I just don't think he's in the the range of the rankings that he should be. It should be like five to eight spots lower and those are the names he should be near.
- [42:16]
Derek Brown
Adamantly agree, adamantly.
- [42:19]
Ryan Wormley
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- [43:18]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, Lions fans already hate me, so I might as well just lean into that David Montgomery. Over the last two years Montgomery has scored 25 touchdowns in 28 regular season games. And as I mentioned in my little soliloquy about Amon Ross St. Brown earlier in the show, I'm not expecting another league high 70 touchdowns out of the Lions with Ben Johnson no longer around. The Lions also had excellent veteran center Frank Ragnow retire. You have to wonder if that's going to affect Detroit's inside running game and man, you really have to wonder how much longer it's going to be a near 50, 50 workload split between Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery when Gibbs is one of the three best running backs in the NFL. So I just see a number of of possible ways that Montgomery does not live up to his adp.
- [44:08]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah I've liked Montgomery for a long time but it feels like it was at a certain point the other shoes gonna drop here and it's gonna be more fully Gibbs backfield. There's gonna be fewer touchdown scoring opportunities. Debra, what do you think about Montgomery? Where do you have them ranked?
- [44:22]
Derek Brown
I've got him at RB22, some right behind consensus. I could make an easy case once we get into training camp and roles are kind of getting solidified a little bit more guys are staying healthy, things like that where I can bump them down a little bit more. And I do think that this, his profile was incredibly touchdown dependent. I mean like weeks 1 through 14 when he was healthy he was 21st in rushing arts per game but this dude was second in the NFL and rushing touchdowns behind only freaking Derek Henry through the first 14 games.
- [44:50]
Pat Fitzmaurice
So the anti Trey McBride D bro.
- [44:53]
Derek Brown
I know that's good call Fitzy. Yeah, I mean so it's, it's a lot of touchdown driven. So it really comes down to like what do you think about Jameer Gibbs and his role and what do you think about the constitution of the Lions offense this year? And if both of those things, if you lean more towards Gibbs or you think the Lions are going to regress some more, then Montgomery needs to be low. But I mean dude like over that spot because of the touchdowns. He was RB11 in fantasy points per game. So honestly compared to the production, we're all kind of giving him the Discount to a certain extent. But I do think we can do it a little bit more if like guys like Travion Henderson and some of these other guys, like if we do get word that, you know, like Aaron Jones is staying healthy and all, you know, all these other parts of pieces, if those things happen, I could see other players hopping him in ranks before we get to week one.
- [45:41]
Ryan Wormley
Do you think, Fitz, that there's maybe a case to be made for Montgomery as a good investment because he can be somebody that is like a low end flex for you when everybody's healthy. But if Gibbs gets hurt, he becomes a much more valuable starter.
- [45:55]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean there, there is that contingent upside for sure. Like if, if Gibbs were to miss three or four games, Montgomery could, I.
- [46:03]
Ryan Wormley
Mean he's getting ranked as a top 12 running back in any week. Gibbs is out. Right. Or at least.
- [46:09]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I mean that that is the one path for Montgomery to out kick his ADP significantly.
- [46:14]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah. Debra, who's your risky player here?
- [46:18]
Derek Brown
All right. Well, we've, we've ticked off a few fan bases. I'm gonna tick off the DJ and the Carolina Panthers fan base here with Chuba Hubbard. I'm just not sold on Chuba Hubbard. I feel like last year, if you really put his full season under the microscope, there's a lot of worries here. So Miles Sanders, I'm not telling you that he's good, but he factored into this backfield. He left week 10 with an injury mixed missed weeks 10 through 17. And if you look at Hubbard's usage at the very like the outset of the year and how it progressed before Miles Sanders, there's a lot of worries here guys. Where weeks one through nine with Hubbard and Miles Sanders, Hubbard played 54 to 83% of the snaps. He had four games in that sample with 65% or lower the snaps if you dial it in further. So basically before Carolina figured out that Miles Sanders was total dust in weeks one through three, Hubbard and looking at his past game role, which we've talked about past game, and that's where it gives the floor and the ceiling for these players. In weeks one through three before the Carolina kind of figured up, Miles Sanders is not very good at football anymore. Chuba Hubbard only had a 35.5 route per drop back rate. Sanders is eating into it too. At 27%. Their red zone role was basically split. Hubbard had three rush red zone rushing attempts, Sanders had two. Now if you look at after Sanders was out, Hubbard's route per drop back rate skyrocketed. To 64%. He had a 12.4% target share and a lot of that was just based out of necessity. They didn't have illustrious pass catchers and so adding Tedro and McMillan, some of these guys being another year in the Carolina Panthers passing offense and the system, Hubbard failed to eclipse 1.0 yards per out run or 15 receiving yards per game regardless of whatever split you look at for the season. So I think he could have issues in the red zone if because they they also signed Rico Dowd on the off season and they drafted Trevor Etn who is a very good passing down back. So looking at Hubbard's run out this year I think everybody's kind of expecting oh he's going to go back to being like basically Carolina's Kyron Williams where he's getting all the work and I don't know if that happens. Guys like I think Rico who played really well last year can eat into the red zone roll and the early down role. Trevor Etn, if he proves that he is competent on passing downs can eat into the passing game role. And I mean we already saw this happen with Miles Sanders last year to begin the year before Hubbard went on that just monstrous like 80, 90, 95% of the snaps type of run. So I think last year's role and production was based out of necessity, not a reflection of like Hubbard's overall talent and skill set as a true three down bell cow. So Hubbard where he's being drafted, I just can't buy into it man. I've got him as a low RB2 in my ranks right now. I've got him as RB24 and that could be generous if this becomes maybe a two or three way committee.
- [49:15]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, this is one where based on the rankings it looks like you are higher on Chuba than dbro is.
- [49:20]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, RB17 and I've kind of debated like moving James Conner ahead of him. So it might be RB18 by tomorrow but so I don't dispute DBRO's assessment of Chuba's passing down roll. I wouldn't be surprised if if Chuba finished with fewer than the 43 catches he had last year. I do think like Chuba would have to be pretty bad and play himself out of the lead gig to not be the lead guy. Like the Panthers told us how they feel about their situation with the contracts they handed out. They gave Chuba four years, 33 million, 16 and a half guaranteed. Rico Dowdle got a one year $2.75 million deal. So like Chuba is Chuba is the guy that Rico is not unseating him in the preseason. And Chuba was actually pretty good as a runner last year, eighth in yards after contact per attempt among all running backs with at least 100 carries. So I still think Chuba is pretty good and I like the trajectory of the offense under Dave Canales in Carolina and I think Carolina has one of the better young offensive lines in the league.
- [50:27]
Derek Brown
I've also heard of a lot about the Chuba Hubbard contract. I just want to point it out there for people that the Carolina Panthers can get out of his contract after this season with only a 4.5 million dead cap hit.
- [50:40]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, but like so it's 6.
- [50:42]
Derek Brown
It's kind of funny money a little bit too.
- [50:44]
Pat Fitzmaurice
16 and a half million guaranteed is not nothing though. That is money.
- [50:47]
Derek Brown
No, no, I don't disagree with that.
- [50:48]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Chuba Hubbard is getting no matter what.
- [50:50]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, let's go to your next risky player.
- [50:53]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It's Chris Godwin and Godwin is actually pretty affordable right now. His consensus ADP is 58th overall so he's late fifth rounder. People are going to think pretty good value for a guy who was wide receiver one in in PPR scoring through the first six weeks of 2024. But then he got hurt and really that is my concern. The health issue. Godwin dislocated his ankle and fractured his fibula. It was a pretty gruesome injury in that game against the Ravensworm and I I just have a hard time believing that Godwin is going to be anywhere close to 100% to start the season. And frequent guest of the show Dr. Deepak Chona says he thinks Godwin is going to be more like 80% to start the season and 90% by mid season. Then factor in added target competition. I mean Godwin was already sharing targets with the great Mike Evans and now here comes first round pick Emeka Igbuka. So I'm just not that interested in rostering Chris Godwin this season. Even though I really like the player and you know got off to a flying start last year. I just don't think this year is going to be anything like last year.
- [52:04]
Ryan Wormley
Debro, where are you at on Godwin?
- [52:06]
Derek Brown
I I'm actually lower than consent. I got him at wide receiver 34. Consensus has him as a wide receiver 28. So I'm with Fitzy on this one. The other part about Godwin and if we just pop open the hood of last year, I mean he didn't start out great out out the gate when they had him Playing more outside. It was after, towards the middle of the season whenever he went back into the slot and they got force fed all the design targets and stuff like that where we saw him just crushing and so what do we see is he going to. With with the arrival of a Mecca. Buka is a Mecca. Buka and Godwin going to rotate inside. Outside is a Mecca going to play in the inside. Is Godwin going to be healthy? Like, I think at this point of his career, like, these are a lot of different questions. And when we're in this range of the draft and stuff like that, I just find myself continually picking other players in the draft. Like, you know, ecr, like are we gonna go with Chris Godwin to have one last ride? Or you want to pick Jalen Waddle, you want to go with Tedro McMillan? Like those are other guys that are at their cost and where they're at versus Godwin, I would much rather draft either one of them.
- [53:09]
Ryan Wormley
D, bro, let's go to the last risky guy here. And this is somebody that we've kind of alluded to a lot already in the show talking about other players. So I think we can go quicker on here.
- [53:18]
Derek Brown
I mean, dude, everybody is is forecasting that Marvin Harrison Jr. Takes not only just a, I mean like a ginormous step. He was wide receiver fantasy points per game last year. He is being ranked in ECR as wide receiver 20. So everybody is baking in and overly so the second year leap for wide receivers that we're just expecting to happen. But yet Drew Petzing is still there. Yet they didn't add any other wide receivers of different archetypes that can do the role that basically they shoved Marvin Harrison Jr. Into last year. Because if you go weeks one through nine, this dude had 49 of his routes were vertical breaking routes. Unfortunately For Marvin Harrison Jr. He ranked 84th in separation and 51st in route win rate on vertical breaking routes. Is this going to change this year? Everybody in ECR and everybody's telling us that, that, that it is. I'm not so sure with that. I'm not telling you that I believe in rational coaching and I believe that Drew Petzing is magically going to roll out of bed in the year 2025 and do smarter things with Marvin Harrison Jr. In a role that he was ill equipped to perform in. And we all could talk about, oh, he looks really, really good, he's all bulked up and stuff like that. Hey, what if that kind of works against him and he's the next David Boston and It's not a wonderful thing that he added all the size and strength.
- [54:37]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, do you have anything more you want to add on Harrison or. We already talked about him earlier.
- [54:41]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh man. Evoking the David Boston thing is pretty terrifying. So his consensus ADP is wide receiver 16. I'm wide receiver 18. Like I said. I Drew Petzing is going to try to to fix the problems with Marvin Harrison Jr. And I, I do believe in the talent. I just don't know if he and Kyler Murray are a good mix with Kyler clearly like not loving throwing over the middle of the field like Kyler likes to to throw to the edges.
- [55:07]
Derek Brown
And you can't see the middle of the field. Fitzy, you can't see over the offensive line.
- [55:11]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Exactly.
- [55:12]
Ryan Wormley
I'm not like out on Harrison. I think I'm more interested in him than certainly D. Ro maybe a little more interested than than Fitz. But ADP of wide receiver 16 seems really high coming off of this rich dude like that is like a lot of banking in.
- [55:26]
Derek Brown
I've got him taking a step forward. Like I've got him ranked as a wide receiver 3. That's better than what he produced last year. But everybody else is saying no, no, we gotta go.
- [55:35]
Ryan Wormley
I, I, I would have more in wide receiver too but like back in wide receiver too. Not like 16th is really high. All right, so we've got kind of one little mini segment here to wrap things up. It's kind of just one more risky player that you guys might actually draft at this spot. So kind of a player that does carry some risk but that you guys are maybe extra interested in given their current cost. Fitz, who do you have here?
- [55:56]
Pat Fitzmaurice
All right. I was eagerly drafting Chris Olave when he was going in the late second or early third round. You better believe I'm going to be drafting him in at least one or two leagues now that he's like wide receiver 36 or something and going in the sixth round. 2000 yard seasons to begin his career before last year's injury shortened campaign. Olave is a terrific route runner. Olave is big time speed. Olave has averaged 2.21 yards per route run for his career, which is excellent. But people are going to be scared away by the dual specters of his concussion issues and his quarterback issues with either Spencer Rattler or Tyler Schuck trying to get him the ball. I am willing to take the medical risk with the lave because of the potential rewards and I do understand the QB concerns. But look, even the very worst passing offenses in the league every year get at least 3,000 passing yards. Well, the Patriots were six yards short of that last year, but you get the idea. There is a certain baseline of production for even the worst NFL passing attacks. No doubt the Saints are going to have one of the worst passing attacks in the league. It's going to be a small pie. But the Saints don't have many other credible pass catchers. So Chris Olave is going to carve himself off a pretty big chunk of that small piece.
- [57:15]
Ryan Wormley
Debro, you are the biggest and or only Saints fan that I know. What do you think about Olave this year?
- [57:21]
Derek Brown
Well, you must have missed the, the.
- [57:23]
Ryan Wormley
The memo that I was historically a Saints fan.
- [57:25]
Derek Brown
I guess I was going to say that that I have disavowed my fandom. I'm no longer a Saints fan until Mickey Loomis is gone and this team actually has a real direction forward and when at that day I would return to Saints fan of who dad baby. But until then, no, I'm basically with consensus here. I've got Chris alave as wide receiver 30 in my ranks. I think he's going to be a volume driven wide receiver 3. I hope that he can out produce that for me. I'm not worried about the concussions and stuff like that. Like I understand though the worry with that. For me it just comes down to the constitution of this offense and what does he get out of quarterback play? How what does that do to affect his touch touchdown expectations? So could he outperform this based off a talent? Based off of. If Tyler Shuck cannot just be horrible, if Spencer Rattler cannot be just replacement level quarterback, then yeah, he can outproduce this. I don't think it's a talent thing. I think it's just for me it's the quarterback.
- [58:20]
Pat Fitzmaurice
You have them ranked higher than I do. I think I'm in wide receiver 32 if you're at 30.
- [58:25]
Derek Brown
Yeah. I mean we're both behind consensus.
- [58:28]
Pat Fitzmaurice
What is consensus ECR.
- [58:30]
Derek Brown
At least when I'm looking at worm 29. So we're, we're behind.
- [58:34]
Pat Fitzmaurice
ADP is 36. So ECR is.
- [58:37]
Derek Brown
ECR is more. More in line.
- [58:39]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, it's one of the cases where ADP. Yeah, actually yeah. 29. Yeah. His ECR is higher in PPR. He's wide receiver 26 actually in ECR.
- [58:49]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Okay.
- [58:49]
Derek Brown
Yeah. So I mean to be honest, like we could see him to fit this point. Then we're above adp. We could see him go the closer we get to training camps week one and Stuff like that. I won't be surprised if ECR starts to mirror what ADP is already doing to Chris Alave.
- [59:05]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, people are, people are going to be terrified by the quarterback thing. They're going to be, yeah.
- [59:09]
Derek Brown
I mean, well, and then, I mean, come on, guys like Travis Hunter's gonna hop him in 80 and ECR, Tedro McMillan's gonna hop him in ECR, probably Calvin Ridley, George Pickens, Jordan Addison. So I think a lobby is probably going to settle into that wide receiver 35 to wide receiver 39 kind of bucket. So I, I agree.
- [59:28]
Ryan Wormley
All right, Debra, who's our last risky player? This is somebody that you might draft despite the risks.
- [59:33]
Derek Brown
Yeah, man. I mean, whether it's return from injury, suspension, how the targets are divvied up, and the role that he plays in this offense. I was out to begin the off season and I'm back in, baby. It's Rasheed Rice and I'm curious how, how much me and Fitzy fight about this one. I think Rasheed Rice has an insane upside. Just looking at how he started last year and even if you wanted to take tackle on how he finished the year previous, I mean, dude, weeks one through three, he was on just a ridiculous pace, like 31.5% target share, 3.6 yards per route run, a 41.2% first reach. Here he was at 188 first downs per route run. And I know that's a lot of numbers for people, but just, just to the, the 100 foot view of that, that would have put him on the overall season for all qualifying wide receivers. If he kept up that type of insane pace, Those were top three numbers. He would have been ranked second, first, third, and first in those four categories. Had he kept that up, the 21.6 points per game that he scored in that stretch would have finished second behind only freaking Jamar Chase last year. So I'm not telling you that he, he keeps up that type of pace, but based off of where Rasheed Rice is going, I don't think Xavier Worthy takes the Rasheed Rice role in this offense because Worthy proved he could play the Rice role. I don't think Rice can play the field stretching role that they're going to ask Worthy to go right back into this year. So whether it's, you know, all the injury, the suspension still looming, we don't know. I'm willing to, to deal with all the risk that comes to Rasheed Rice right now and draft him pretty aggressively.
- [61:16]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, what do you think?
- [61:18]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I'm pretty conflicted on Rice and the fact that I am not, you know, all gas, no breaks like a lot of other people are on. Rishi Rice has me pretty well behind consensus just because. And my hesitation is related to Xavier Worthy because yeah, when Rishi Rice was just doing tremendous things in 2023 and early 2024, he was the only game in town at wide receiver. The early 2024 usage of Xavier Worthy was very much just in a gadget role. Like he was a gadget guy for them those, those first few games until Rice got hurt. Then by the end of the season, if, if you factor in playoff game, Xavier Worthy had 50 receptions over his last eight games. So prorated over a full season that's 100 catch pace. Like I don't think that Genie is going back in the bottle, man. And, and maybe Rishi Rice is still like the leading leads the, the Chiefs and targets and receptions. I could totally understand that happening, but I don't think Worthy Suddenly becomes a 30 catch guy. Like he is going to be involved in this offense because he is a good player. So I just don't see Rasheed Rice getting the same sort of target load he had in 2023 and early 2024.
- [62:34]
Ryan Wormley
Is there a chance that both those guys end up being correct answers this year and like Kelsey takes another step back but Mahomes kind of, you know, coming off this blowout in the super bowl, it almost is like a bit of a revenge tour. Like hey, we're still the Chiefs and those two are just like 1A and 1B in this offense. Can you see that happening, Fitz, or do you think it's gonna be one or the other?
- [62:54]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, and I'm trying to be consistent with that. So I've got like Rice ranked right now as a mid range wide receiver 2 and worthy as a backhand wide receiver too.
- [63:04]
Ryan Wormley
Debra, what do you think about. You know, I know you said that they don't really play the same role. Do you think there's room for both of them to be really strong fantasy contributors?
- [63:11]
Derek Brown
I don't. In the roles that they're. That I'm forecasting for them to play. I think Rice goes back into the role that he was playing last year, which is the same role he was playing in 2023. I think worthy, who was the Worthy, didn't break out last year until he started playing the Rasheed Rice role. And I think that what's kind of get lost in the sauce here is Patrick Mahomes has been objectively a terrible downfield passer over the last two years. So I think there's a big divide here. I think that their offense, because I think a lot of people look at this and say, okay, like they're going to go back to chucking it down the field and all those kind of things. Like I'm saying it with my ranks. Like, I don't think that that happens because I don't know if Patrick Mahomes still has that in his skill set to be an electric deep ball passer. Like, because he hasn't. He's been horrible over the last two years. Not, not just bad, but like one of the worst deep ball passers in the entire NFL. And because of the name Patrick Mahomes, it just kind of gets lost in the conversation.
- [64:08]
Ryan Wormley
We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. That was a bunch of different risky players to think twice about drafting in 2025, plus a couple that we are interested in drafting for DBRO and Fitz. Thanks everybody for tuning in. I'm Ryan Wormley. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros AI is redefining what's possible for your business. With more unique challenges to solve and higher stakes than ever, Microsoft helps you stay ahead. Our trustworthy AI tools and guidance can empower leaders like you to drive greater impact. And with Azure's simplified platform management, we're helping businesses go further, faster, unlocking up to 150% improved output. Whatever challenge comes next, let Microsoft help you keep pushing forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com challengers hi.
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Ryan Wormley
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