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FantasyPros - 5 Moves You Need to Make Week Ahead Of Week 6 (Ep. 1755)
00:18:05
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- [00:00]
Tara Roberts
This is an I Heart podcast.
- [00:04]
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- [00:33]
Ryan Wormley
Hello everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. I'm Ryan Wormley, joined as I am every Monday by Tara Roberts. We are talking five moves to make ahead of week six. We are barreling through the season here. Tara, quick reminder for everybody that all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found@fantasypros.com rankings. We've got a couple buys, we've got some stuff sells result. We've also got a drop later on in the show. Let's start with the buys. Who do you have for us here this week?
- [01:01]
Tara Roberts
We're going to start with a buy that surprisingly should not be a buy, but it is at this point. I wanted to talk about it last week, but something in my, something in my gut told me to hold off just one week before. We talked about Derek Henry here by Derek Henry. The Ravens are obviously in a really terrible position here with Lamar Jackson out for multiple weeks. Potentially through the wave Ravens Week 7 Buy there. They've got a matchup against the LA Rams this week. Do I think that Henry will have a vast improvement this week? No. The buy for him is for the future, the back half of this season here because again, when we look at this Ravens offense and Derek Henry, we know that he gets aggressive usage on the ground. So if the Ravens are struggling, falling from behind, ultimately that just limits the upside for Derek Henry and reduces his touches overall. When they're in better situations and better matchups there, he'll get back to being Derek Henry. There's no issue with him being cooked, him being too old, anything at all. We saw in week one that he looked fantastic. The Ravens just have to get into better matchup situations here and after the Ravens buy, things start to look up here. So let's say we get Lamar Jackson back. We've got matchups against Chicago, Miami, excellent matchups here. We got Minnesota that has also been very vulnerable on the ground even though they've been a tough defense overall. Then the playoff Schedule is Cincinnati, New England, Green Bay. So it's just a wonderful thing to buy into if you're a team with an excellent record and you don't need Derek Henry specifically to put up big numbers this week. If he can hold off to the back half of the season, it can pay off dividends for you.
- [02:29]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, it's. It's really interesting because Lamar has had, when he's had injuries in the past, they have sometimes lingered, but they have talked about this as, like, this is like a couple weeks and, you know, he will be back. And the Ravens as an organization aren't going to say, oh, well, we're just going to tank the season as early as, you know, early October. They're going to get their players back and try and want to. To compete. It's the way they're wired. And you're right, the schedule. I think I read somewhere that it's the 27th easiest schedule or the. The. So I guess like the fifth easiest schedule. The 27th was difficult schedule. It's very easy schedule is my point. Coming after the buy, it's just been a brutal, you know, first six games for them, you know, with the injuries on top of it. He, you know, Henry, like, did struggle against Cleveland in Week two when the team was still healthy. Cleveland's also just a really good defense and, like, made it a real point to stop him. So I don't, you know, I want to put too much weight on that when these other struggles have been coinciding with the team struggling so much, you know, like you mentioned, just in terms of tough schedule and injuries and all that. So I find Henry really fascinating because if you believe that Lamar is going to be back and healthy and this, this will be the offense at the very least, maybe not the defense, but the offense that we expected then, now might be a great time to buy because his manager is saying not only has he been bad, but he has the Rams coming up and then a buy. So that's two more weeks of struggles here. You can almost take advantage of that. Where do you have him rest of season amongst running backs? He's still inside the top 10. He's RB8 in our consensus rankings. I don't get the sense that that's how he's being viewed by most fantasy managers, though.
- [04:03]
Tara Roberts
That's exactly how I have him. But when I'm looking rest of season, I am taking into account that, hey, like, just for right now, it's a bad situation and you can't use him. But when factor in the level of upside that he has if you can just gut it through. And that's why it's more of a specific buy. If your team is struggling right now, this is probably not the best buy for you. It won't matter if you buy him and then in week eight he goes off, but you've lost all the games in between and then you're out of playoff contention. Right. So rest of season I still have him top 10, but we got to get there first to the rest of the season for him.
- [04:33]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, definitely. Definitely a more appealing buy if you are currently, you know, 4 and 1 or, you know, in first place and doing well and something where you can afford to say, hey, let me set myself up for, you know, the second half of the season already as opposed to like, if you're one in four, like, probably not. Yeah. Who's your other buy for us this week?
- [04:53]
Tara Roberts
We're just on the running back track here. A big name running backs that have poor perception here. Kenneth Walker is a buy for me and that came aggressively after last night's game where I sat there through the frustration of watching his usage. Because the thing about him is a buy is that his production overall is fine, but the perception is what makes him a good buy low candidate here. Because when you look at the numbers, I'm not convinced the Seahawks are intentionally trying to pull Kenneth Walker out of the game once they get into the red zone. Because the numbers don't say that. It just so happens that he's got possibly the worst luck of any running back. You know, he's breaking off these big runs. And typically when you break off a big run, you are often pulled out of the game for a little bit of rest here. Another back put in. So if you're breaking off a big run to get the team to the five yard line and then Zach Charbonnet gets subbed in, it's a bad look there and he's getting the touchdowns. But when you're looking at the backfield as a whole, Walker is still the lead back. There is no indication that we're having any kind of flip here. He's still getting excellent volume. He still has more snaps than Charbonnet. He still has plenty of attempts in the red zone. He has 13 attempts in the red zone. That is within the top 15 of all running backs. The problem is, is that Charbonnet has 13 attempts in the red zone as well. So it's the split backfield in theory, but Kenneth Walker is still the RB one of that. And when you look at the numbers overall outside of week one, where you could argue that the lack of usage there was well below expectations. And the reason for that, that he didn't get that preseason work. So they were doing maybe a slow ramp up since he had been dealing with a foot injury during the off season. But after that week, Walker's worst Finish has been RB26 and he's had two top 12 performances. One of those games being in tandem with Zach Charbonnet. The opportunity is there. He's got a safe floor, he's got a high ceiling, he's a weekly top 24 running back. And right now fantasy managers are flying frustrated with that perception of Charbonnet. So he's actually a buy low despite the numbers being good.
- [06:47]
Ryan Wormley
And when you look at his game log, like when you look on fantasy pros, you know, the teams that are difficult are highlighted in red. The teams that are easy highlighted in green. And if it's neither like kind of a neutral matchup, then they're black. Every single matchup from week six through the end of the season as of right now is green or black. There are no like designated, very difficult running back matchups, you know, throughout the rest of the year. And there's a handful of ones that are even quite good that are green in there. You know, he is such a fun player like to watch at times and then so frustrating at other times when they're taking him off the field and everything like that. You know, even with week one dragging him down in terms of just like the overall yardage production, he's. He's 10th in the NFL in rushing yards this season. Again, that's even including his down week one and he does have three rushing touchdowns. Right. It's not like he hasn't gotten in the end zone. It just, he feels like it could be more. It just hasn't been. It's so funny. Like I remember all of the, you know, dynasty rookie draft, you know, discussions about Breeze hall and Kenneth Walker in the same year and here we are, you know, years into their careers and they're back to back in the rest of season rankings. There are 14 and RB15. And it's like those two are just, you know, attached at the hip for, for, for their careers here. Does RB14 sound about right to you?
- [08:04]
Tara Roberts
For Walker, it does. You know, he doesn't because unfortunately the presence of Charbonnet, he doesn't ultimately on a week to week basis have 5 upside. But having him right outside of that RB1 category is like literally the perfect spot for him.
- [08:19]
Ryan Wormley
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- [09:01]
Tara Roberts
We're going to sell devonte Smith. I'm a very consistent person. A few weeks ago I said sell A.J. brown off his big performance against the Rams. I will say the exact same thing about devonte Smith here in the no insult to him the talent that he has. It's just that the Eagles don't naturally want to be a pass heavy team. Jalen Hurts threw the ball 38 times this week. That's just outside of the norm and I'm not surprised that it happened. When you have both of your superstar receivers expressing their frustration, it's that, you know, squeaky wheel gets the oil situation where you can almost guarantee that there's going to be more pass volume, but on a week to week basis that is not the goal of the Eagles. And when the pass volume comes down, unfortunately devonte Smith is going to be reliant on touchdowns and when those don't come, you get the those nasty single digit fantasy point performances that wreck your week, unfortunately. So there are game scripts that will push them into more volume, but it is game specific and I don't want to rely on a receiver whose floor is legitimately below five fantasy points. So this is a fantastic opportunity, right? The performance from Devante Smith was so high and in any other situation you're looking at these numbers and you're feeling like he's putting them up on a regular basis here, but here not so much. So you want to take this opportunity when they've increased the past volume and sell him if you can and move on to what I think is, you know, a more stable situation. If you can sell him for somebody else that has more reliable production, what are you hoping?
- [10:27]
Ryan Wormley
Like, is there a name Specifically you would throw out of the type of player you'd be trying to get back for him.
- [10:33]
Tara Roberts
Yeah, and you might have to, you know, do a little bit of adjustment. But a guy that I always like to say is just, you know, it's Michael Pittman for me. A guy that doesn't have that same perception more so gets categorized into the same bucket as guys like Devontae Smith and Jameson Williams, despite the fact that he is the wide receiver, one of his team and does have consistent volume there. Just again he's got that perception of, you know, upside being limited, Daniel Jones and whatnot. So ultimately you can flip to something like something else like that.
- [11:02]
Ryan Wormley
Who's your other sell?
- [11:05]
Tara Roberts
My other sell there is Sam Laporta. Again, you know, you don't. It doesn't always have to be a sell high situation and you know, as a matter of fact there are other tight ends that are having these strong performances that I don't think are sell highs. But when I'm looking at Leaporta specifically, it's because he offers the star power in a trade to garner a high end asset at another position. He had a fantastic game, right, 92 yards, nearly 100 yards, a touchdown here. But we cannot forget that those boom games happen for him. But when the boom games don't exist, his floor is super low. We had three straight games of seven or less fantasy points. This was his first touchdown of the season. There are natural highs and lows in his game because of the offense that he plays in and because of the west weapons that surround. But again, he is a high end, flashy tight end. He was guy that most people were drafting as the tight end for. So coming off this big performance, you can get a little bit more bang for your buck out of him if you're looking to sell him. And then with all of these other fantastic performances that we've had from tight ends coming up as strong options here as like Darren Waller and Mason Taylor, Theo Johnson. What I'm discovering is I like DO Q&As and questions throughout the week is that a lot of people are rostering multiple tight ends. So if you have Sam Laporta, there's a good chance that you got another tight end that you picked up because he was just popping on waivers. If that's a guy that you feel comfortable with rest of season, if he's a second look at his offense or has high upside or has high touchdown equity, maybe he's on a team where, you know, wide receiver one was lost to an injury Like a Theo Johnson. If you want to turn that direction, rely on that. And then Sam Laporta, sell him upgraded in the position. That's something that you can very realistically do.
- [12:46]
Ryan Wormley
I mentioned kind of the coloring of teams, you know, in the game log and the schedule on fantasy pros. A lot of red for Sam Laporta in terms of just tough matchups against. Against tight ends. There's. There's one green, you know, a handful of red and then the rest neutral. So, you know, not the most enticing schedule going forward for him. Where do you have you mentioned he's kind of going as like the tight end for in draft season? Where is he now for you?
- [13:12]
Tara Roberts
For me, he's more so kind of in like that tight end seven or eight area. And maybe as we progress forward and see how much we can rely on these other tight ends, that would be the key in terms of him moving down a little bit. He' still got high upside here because the thing is, is that a lot of these other tight ends, Travis Kelce is underperforming. You would want Sam Laporta over him. A Brock Bower is dealing with an injury. Sam Laporta has the higher upside there. So it gets kind of messy when you're in that like 4 to 6 range in terms of all the injuries that we're dealing with and underperforming guys. He's got high upside here, but there are guys that could legitimately pass him as the season goes on.
- [13:47]
Ryan Wormley
You mentioned, you know, managers having multiple tight ends and a lot of, you know, cases. And that second tight end, if they took a backup, there's a chance that backup's looking really good now. Like some of the best tight ends this season. Tyler Warren was going well after Sand Laporta. Jake Ferguson obviously is getting ton of tons of volume now. Tucker Kraft making the leap. Hunter Henry has been a great target in New England. Mason Taylor getting more work now. Like even if you took a chance on Kyle Pitts late, like he's kind of paid off, like there are lots of options is the point. Darren Waller, maybe you picked him up. I mean a lot of these guys have elevated.
- [14:21]
Tara Roberts
We're deep at the position and so if you can take the flashier name, like if I were looking at maybe like a Dalton Kincaid, I feel like sometimes people have the skepticism around here, the lack of potential pass volume from Josh Allen, inconsistencies there. He wouldn't have that same, that same high end, high upside sell opportunity as a Sam Laporta who has Finished as an overall tight end. One who has been drafted as an overall tight end. One kind of gets the. The little bit of the boost there in terms of that mass appeal.
- [14:47]
Ryan Wormley
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- [15:16]
Tara Roberts
I hate to do the drops because I hate to break hearts. It is Jerry Judy. Unfortunately, there's just. And I love Jerry Judy. I want the best for Jerry Judy. But there's way too much working against Jerry Judy at this point. I still think he offers value. So this is not a you have to drop him. Like, you got to move on. There's no other option if you have the ability to keep him. Sure. But as we look across waivers and have all of these injuries that are happening, these running backs that are coming up into prominence, we've got. We talked about the popping tight ends as well. There's opportunities to grab people that have higher upside. And if you need that upside and you can't afford to hold on to Jerry Judy, it's okay to let him go at this point. The offense did look better with Dylan Gabriel. That is, you know, undisputed there. But what was the true benefit was for the tight ends. And that kind of makes sense in terms of how we were looking at Kevin Savansky's usage of Dylan Gabriel in the preseason. It seemed like there wasn't going to be a lot of aggressive downfield passing, more design plays to put him into comfortable situations. And naturally, those are often going to be to the tight ends here. So I'm not shocked that we didn't see a massive increase in volume to the receiving core, but less about the tilt of the volume to tight ends and more about the fact that one. Even before we got Dylan Gabriel, Neri Judy was looking more kind of lockstep with Cedric Tillman as a 1A 1B. And it was kind of low key, looking like it was Cedric Tillman. That was maybe the 1A of that grouping. Now we have Tillman out, Isaiah Bond comes in, and for the past two weeks, Isaiah Bond has also out produced Jerry Judy. So when you look at Jerry duty and his skill set. He benefits from quarterback quarterbacks that like to air out the ball, hence why he thrived and went nuclear with Jameis Winston. But we don't have that in that offense right now, unfortunately for Cleveland. So if there's one person who is naturally going to fall a little bit to the wayside in terms of fantasy production, unfortunately, it is Jerry Judy. So again, I mean, he's not a must drop because see, the Cleveland schedule does get much softer, extremely soft as they go through the remainder of the season here. But if he's not the one that's going to be benefiting from the quarterback change and the soft schedule schedule and you need to move on, I think it's perfectly fine for you to do so.
- [17:24]
Ryan Wormley
It does get softer later, maybe not right away. At the very least this week it's pretty tough going from, you know, facing a very aggressive Vikings defense in London to coming home. And now you go to Pittsburgh, a Steelers team that's coming off their bye week. So not a fun turnaround for the Browns offense there. So go ahead and drop Jerry Judy out. I'm not even going to like, play devil's advocate. I don't have a case to not drop them. So that's a good point by you. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there for Eterra. I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram and TikTok @fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasy fantasy pros look, if.
- [18:37]
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- [19:11]
Tara Roberts
This is an I Heart podcast.