FantasyPros - 6 Fantasy Football Projections That SCARE Us For 2025 (Ep. 1587)

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "FantasyPros - 6 Fantasy Football Projections That SCARE Us For 2025" (Ep. 1587)
Release Date: June 14, 2025
Hosts: Joe P. Zapia, Derrick Brown (DBRO), and Pat Fitzmaurice
Description: In this episode, the Fantasy Pros team delves into six fantasy football player projections for the 2025 season that raise concerns. Hosts analyze each player's projected performance, discussing potential risks and discrepancies between current projections and previous performances.

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1. Chase Brown – Running Back

Timestamp: [02:24]
Speaker: Derrick Brown

Derrick Brown expresses significant concern over Chase Brown's fantasy football projections for 2025, highlighting a steep drop from RB1 to RB17 in projections.

“The projections we have have Chase Brown as RB17 right now. So if that comes to fruition, yes, we all need to be scared because we are drafting him in early best balls and ranking him as an RB one.” — Derrick Brown [02:24]

Discussion Points:

• Volume vs. Efficiency: While Brown had impressive yards last season, Derrick worries about his efficiency metrics, including explosive run rate and missed tackles.
• Team Dynamics: Pat Fitzmaurice counters by suggesting that Chase Brown will likely remain the lead back in Cincinnati's strong offense, projecting him closer to RB11.

“I think we can kind of count on the efficiency staying high.” — Pat Fitzmaurice [05:57]

Conclusion: While there is consensus that Chase Brown is talented, the disparity between his current RB17 projection and his RB1 ranking raises red flags about potential overvaluation in drafts.

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2. Drake May – Quarterback

Timestamp: [06:34]
Speaker: Pat Fitzmaurice

Pat Fitzmaurice brings attention to Drake May's projections, particularly criticizing the underestimation of his rushing abilities.

“The projections have Drake May, QB20 and fantasy scoring. That's the scary part. I have May at QB9 so big alarming gap there.” — Pat Fitzmaurice [05:57]

Discussion Points:

• Rushing Potential: Both Pat and Joe believe Drake May's rushing yards and touchdowns are projected too conservatively, potentially undervaluing his dual-threat capabilities.
• Offensive Strategy: Derrick aligns with the current projections but expresses concerns about New England’s improved defense possibly limiting May's passing attempts.

“And so are we going to see Josh McDaniels airing the ball out? Are they going to play more conservative?” — Derrick Brown [09:26]

Conclusion: There is optimism that Drake May could outperform his QB20 projection, especially if his rushing contributions exceed expectations, making him a valuable asset in super flex leagues.

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3. Tyreek Hill – Wide Receiver

Timestamp: [14:13]
Speaker: Derrick Brown

Tyreek Hill's projections have narrowed from WR3/WR2 to WR15/WR16, causing uncertainty among the hosts.

“Right now he's wide receiver 14 and projections. He's wide receiver 15 and ADP and wide receiver 14 and ECR. That scares the crap out of me.” — Derrick Brown [14:13]

Discussion Points:

• Performance Decline: Last year saw Hill’s performance dip significantly, raising doubts about his ability to bounce back.
• Offensive Line Issues: The continued struggles of the Dolphins' offensive line and Tua Tagovailoa’s performance further hinder Hill's potential.

“The offensive line still one of the worst in the league.” — Pat Fitzmaurice [17:45]

Conclusion: Despite Tyreek Hill’s elite status, combined with offensive line deficiencies and previous performance declines, his current projections may not reflect his true ceiling, leading to wary drafting strategies.

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4. Kyron Williams – Running Back

Timestamp: [21:31]
Speaker: Pat Fitzmaurice

Kyron Williams is projected as RB1, but Pat Fitzmaurice questions the sustainability of this ranking.

“The projections are very confident that he's going to be exactly that [RB1].” — Pat Fitzmaurice [22:47]

Discussion Points:

• Volume Ownership: Derrick Brown expresses concern that Williams' high carry volume may not translate into RB1 status if efficiency decreases or if teammates like Jarquez Hunter emerge.
• Efficiency Concerns: Kyron has shown inconsistency in yards per carry and pass-catching abilities, which may not support his projected RB1 role.

“All this is volume stranglehold based. It's not because of the efficiency.” — Derrick Brown [23:35]

Conclusion: While Kyron Williams has secured a high projection, the reliance on volume without consistent efficiency presents a risk of him slipping to RB2 if circumstances in the Los Angeles Rams' backfield change.

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5. Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver

Timestamp: [26:50]
Speaker: Derrick Brown

Xavier Worthy's projection as WR20 raises concerns about his ability to meet those expectations given his role and quarterback performance.

“We are projecting that Patrick Mahomes is going to support two top 20 wide receivers and Travis Kelce obviously is a tight end one this year.” — Derrick Brown [26:50]

Discussion Points:

• Quarterback Performance: Mahomes’ declining deep passing accuracy may limit Worthy's opportunities as a deep threat.
• Rushing Contributions: The aggressive rushing projections for Worthy (118 yards and 2.7 touchdowns) are seen as risky and potentially unreliable.

“The rushing projections for Worthy are pretty aggressive.” — Pat Fitzmaurice [29:08]

Conclusion: Xavier Worthy's projections are questioned due to uncertainties in his receiving role and the aggressive assumptions regarding his rushing contributions, making him a risky pick at a high projection slot.

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6. Bucky Irving – Running Back

Timestamp: [29:59]
Speaker: Pat Fitzmaurice

Bucky Irving’s projections appear conservative compared to Pat’s expectations based on last season’s performance.

“They have him projected for 234 carries, a little over 1100 rushing yards... I'm scared by projections that I find reasonable that have him less valuable than I think he is.” — Pat Fitzmaurice [30:48]

Discussion Points:

• Workload and Efficiency: The projected carries and rushing yards for Irving appear lower than his performance last year, causing Pat to question his undervaluation.
• Team Dynamics: With Rashad White’s role diminished, Irving's increased workload may not fully capitalize on his potential, especially if offensive schemes change.

Conclusion: Bucky Irving may offer more value than his projections indicate, but uncertainties about his workload and efficiency under changing team dynamics make him a cautious consideration for drafts.

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Final Thoughts

Throughout the episode, Joe P. Zapia encourages listeners to engage by sharing their thoughts and potentially winning prizes. The hosts emphasize the importance of scrutinizing player projections beyond surface-level rankings to identify potential busts or undervalued assets in fantasy drafts.

“You've heard all the scary stories now about Chase Brown, Tyreek Hill, Xavier Worthy, Drake May, Kyron Williams and Bucky Irving. But we'd like to hear from you all those guys ...” — Joe P. Zapia [31:27]

Key Takeaways:

• Discrepancies in Projections: Several players have projections that may not align with their past performances or potential, warranting cautious drafting.
• Efficiency vs. Volume: High volume does not always equate to high performance, and efficiency metrics should be closely monitored.
• Team Dynamics Impact: Players’ roles and team changes (like new teammates or coaching strategies) significantly influence their fantasy output.

Listeners are encouraged to critically evaluate player projections and consider both statistical trends and contextual factors when preparing for the 2025 fantasy football season.

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Note: This summary excludes advertisements, intros, outros, and non-content sections as per the request.

Transcript

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[Joe P. Zapia]

By the Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids Action Fund. Welcome in, everybody, to Fantasy pros. This is the fantasy football podcast. It is me, Joey P. Joe P. Zapia. And today we're going to talk about the projections that scare us. That's right. It's time to hide under the covers because there's some guys with the projections this year might not be as good as they are perceived. And of course, there's nobody better to help us figure out who those players might be than, of course, Dbro Derrick Brown, the king of bros, the man who gets sunburned in the shade. And Pat Fitz Morris, just fresh off a golf outing, who I believe his handicap is. What are you, like, a three handicap right now, Fitzy? You're. You're just spectacular.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Like a 33.

[Joe P. Zapia]

Oh, I forgot the other three. I always forget the other three when it comes to you. But the boys are here, and we are locked in again. The projections you can find right, right now that we're basing this show off are [e-mail] projections. That's the place you can find all the ones we're going through today. And as we go through some of the big names here on this list that might scare the crap out of us in 2025. We want you to be with us for all of the 2025 season. So drop your comments below. Subscribe to the Fantasy Bros. YouTube channel. We're trying to get to 300,000 this year, and we could do it with your help. And in the meantime, if you do both of those things, you. You are getting a chance to win the George Pickens autograph Steelers jersey. That's right. He said, I don't need this Steelers jersey anymore. I'm on to Dallas. It's from pristineauction.com and we're giving it away to a subscriber of the channel who comments on this or any video. Make sure you like the videos, and ring the bell to Lick those ding for notifications so you never miss a piece of content here on the channel. All right, gentlemen, let's get after it. Let's start with some of the names on our list that scare US in 2025 from a projection standpoint. Dbro, let's start with a running back on your list. It's Chase Brown. Talk to me, dude.

[Derrick Brown]

I was kind of surprised and going through this looking at just projections and talking about median outcomes. I was shocked that we in our projections have chase Brown as RB17 right now. So if that comes to fruition, yes, we all need to be scared because we are drafting him in early best balls and ranking him as an RB one. And I, I understand why we're doing it. He's. He was the RB4 and fantasy points per game last year, averaging almost 117 total yards when he was the starter. So for me, like I've had a little bit of worries about Chase Brown because during that stretch it was all volume. He was awesome. He was Cincinnati cmc. The per touch efficiency is a little more concerning for me as a player who for all the big play potential we saw in college, the speed that wasn't there, I mean this guy was outside the top 24 running backs in explosive run rate, missed tackles, force per attempt and yards of contact per attempt. So I've had my worries about Chase Brown, although I've been pretty much in line with consensus on ranking. This RB17 projection scares the crap out of me, man. Like, if that's where he goes, he's going to be a big bust this coming year because people are expecting RB1 production if they are drafting Chase Brown.

[Joe P. Zapia]

Yeah, it is a little bit of a peculiar one, especially when you consider what's around that backfield. Zach Mossy, P. Ryan. I don't think those guys are really terrifying. Pat, since Debro brings it up, he makes a good point. You're looking at the ADP of Chase Brown at 12 RB overall. You got ECR at 14. So there's a lot of fallout potentially if he falls backwards. Do you think the projections are based off of how bad that defense is and how many negative game scripts are in where they have to throw the ball because again, the defense of Cincinnati isn't very good and it is a throw first kind of offense with Joe Burrow and those receivers?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I mean, I think it's the lack of volume that are holding down his projections a little bit. So last year from November on, chase Brown averaged 18.9 carries, 4.8 catches a game. Now, I don't expect him to average 23.6 touches a game like he did over the second half of last season, but I do think Chase Brown is still pretty safely going to be the lead back in one of the best offenses in the league. And sure, someone is probably going to emerge as a tag team partner for Chase Brown. But like who on this Bengals roster could threaten Chase Brown's primacy in this backfield? Like Taj Brooks? I like him, but he's not better than Chase Brown. Zach Moss, Samaj Pirai. No, and our projections have Chase Brown at something like 15 or 16 touches a game. They have him at under 200 carries for the season. I think they're probably a little light there. So I've chased Brown at RB11 in my rankings. Like I know we're probably not going to see huge weekly workloads for Chase Brown again this year, so I maybe agree with the projections on that. But I do think we'll get significant workloads and still the attractive weekly ceilings in a high flying offense. And you know, I'm not too worried about the like I know in college, kind of a different story there because he was run into the ground by Brett B. In his last college season at Illinois, like averaged over 20 carries a game. So he was running up against stacked boxes all the time. He is never going to get run against a stacked box in Cincinnati with Joe Burrow at quarterback, it's just not going to happen. So I think we can kind of count on the efficiency staying high.

[Joe P. Zapia]

Yeah, I would agree. I mean, look, I think all three of us like Chase Brown. I think we should all be a little concerned that the projections are a little on the lower side. But in those PPR leagues too, he was very consistent in the last about eight games of the season, really seeing steady target volume too. So that's a plus in his game as well. And he seemed to handle the workload as he got deep into the season too. He had games where he had 25 carries, 18 carries, 20 carries to kind of finish out the year when they got hot. Right? And that offense really didn't start clicking until the second half of the season anyway. It was too little too late for the Bengals, unfortunately. Fitzy, let's see if we can switch gears here and talk about a player whose projections right now scare you just a tad.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, let's talk about Drake May, who I am really into this year and the reason I am is that we know rushing ability is a cheat code for quarterbacks, but Most of the QBs who provide substantial rushing value are really expensive in fantasy drafts or will be once the 2025 draft season kicks off. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen hurts, Jaden Daniels, but you can turn a big profit if you can find a quarterback who provides prolific, prolific rushing value but isn't very expensive. And I think Drake May can be that guy. May started 12 games as a rookie, but if we exclude Week 18 when he only played three snaps before he was pulled, May average 4.9 carries and 38.3 rushing yards. Over a full season that would project to 651 rushing yards. And I think May could actually do better than that. As a sophomore at North Carolina he had 698 rushing yards. And remember that college quarterbacks have sack yardage deducted from their rushing yardage. So yeah, May lost about 200 yards in sacks that year. So he was really closer to 850 rushing yards in only 14 games. Also Drake May had two touchdown runs last season in his two college seasons as a starter. 16 TD runs in 26 games. So the projections have Drake May, QB20 and fantasy scoring. That's the scary part. I have May at QB9 so big alarming gap there. Although I certainly won't feel compelled to actually draft mays the QB9 if I know I can get him somewhere in the teens. But it is a little scary that May comes in as a mid range to low end QB2 in the projections. I don't even have a big beef with the passing projections for him which are about 3,300 yards, 21 TD passes. But I do think the rushing projections for May are a little light. 538 yards, 2.6 TD runs. I'll. I'll pretty confidently bet the over on those numbers.

[Joe P. Zapia]

Now I'm also high on Drake May this year and those projections for me again, you know doing all the quarterback write ups in the black book and going through where I like him in super flex. He's a tremendous value and target of mine this year in super flex drafts because of that rushing equity. He he's projected in our system right now for 536 rushing yards. That does feel light to me. Dbro, are you or Fitzy and IR on this point in Drake May like you can speculate where the touchdown totals are going to lie and where this offense might be. It can only be better than last year. I think we all know that. How much better? That's a big question. But we're talking about the baseline of fantasy points, the rushing Equity matters a ton and Drake May's playmaking ability was already on display. And those two things make him really intriguing to both of us. How about to you? Are you a little afraid of these projections being a little lower than maybe we are on Drake May this season?

[Derrick Brown]

I'm actually in line with these projections like right now I've got Drake may as my QB20 I think. And this isn't so much the hate on May. I like me, I really do. It just comes down to there's a lot of quarterbacks in that QB2 filem that I like more than Drake May. And it's not just that. I mean because honestly his rushing, like his rushing projection is nice here. I mean like 10th and attempts 8th and rushing yards like I, I don't, I don't see May as a guy that I think he's going to go out and rush for like 7, 800 yards. So sticking him in that mid 5 category. Maybe the rushing touchdowns are light, but we don't know what New England's going to do with the goal line. It could be just from Andre Stevenson season every single time they get inside the five of the ten. So I, I guess my worry and, and it comes back to these projections for Drake May this year. And why I'm lower than, than you guys are is because of the passing, like if, if the volume isn't there. Because I think we can all agree New England Patriots, their defense is going to be much improved if not really stinking good this year.

[Joe P. Zapia]

Yes.

[Derrick Brown]

And so are we going to see Josh McDaniels airing the ball out? Are they going to play more conservative? Are they going to go run heavy? Is Mike Vrabel also gonna have a say in what this offense looks like versus passing volume and rushing volume and how that all plays out in game script? Because Joe, I mean you've, you've made the case on here before that the Patriots betting the over on their win totals. Okay, well if that's the case, it's probably not related to what's fueling them winning games which could be a lot of ugly games. That's probably not gonna be related to their high flying offense led by Randre Stevenson and Williams.

[Joe P. Zapia]

And Patriot football wasn't always pretty. I mean it was the defense running the football. Tom Brady, you know, being Tom Brady in the big moments for some of those tougher games.

[Derrick Brown]

But, but that goes back to. It's probably not, they're not outscoring teams by probably not every single week.

[Joe P. Zapia]

No, those wins are going to be.

[Derrick Brown]

Closer, it's going to look bad. And that is that going to depress some of Drake May's numbers, especially in the passing department. So I don't have a problem with the projection. I think I can kind of quibble about like, okay, if I bump him up, you know, two or three rushing touchdowns based off of where we have him, because I do think it's kind of light to give him only 2.6 rushing touchdowns.

[Joe P. Zapia]

Yeah, that seems light to me too. I think it's more like four or five easily.

[Derrick Brown]

So can it like in. In the other thing I'll point out with when we're doing these projections, if you give him those two or three rushing touchdowns, like right now in our projections, he's got 206 or 263 fantasy points. If we were to give him even two more rushing touchdowns, you're talking about vaulting him up like five, six spots. So he's at QB14 if we give him three or more brushing touchdowns. So that's. Honestly, if we're going to quibble about the projection, I think it's the rushing touchdown total and that could vault him up into that, you know, fringe, maybe just outside QB1 territory.

[Joe P. Zapia]

I think what's so interesting for me, Fitzy, just real quick going back to you for a second, is when you look at the rejections on the total points May is behind, we're basically tied with Stafford and J.J. mcCarthy. And I find that kind of odd because personally, as much as I really like McCarthy this year in the situation he's in, I just feel a little bit more confident that May is. I've seen enough of May where I am like, okay, he gets it. He's in there. I think he's ready to go. He's got a much better set of surroundings. You have him at nine, so clearly you would agree with that fact too. Like him, McCarthy are not close for you.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, May played capably in the worst possible circumstances. Bad offensive line, terrible pass catchers. Yeah. And like, I still don't think we saw quite all of his rushing potential last year. And I know DBRO just said he was okay with the projection on rushing yardage. I think if he makes 16 starts or 17, he is going to go for 700 rushing yards. And I feel pretty confident about that. Like, he is an aggressive runner. If you watched him in North Carolina, like, he really like seeks it out if he doesn't have an open receiver. So I'm.

[Joe P. Zapia]

It's one of the things I liked about him. And the consolation prize of not getting Jaden Daniels is like, hey, we're still getting a mobile quarterback who's got a good arm and you know, he's got a little gunslinger mentality in him. All right, let's talk about another guy here on the list. Dibro, you're a little afraid of Tyreek Hill. And I have to say I'm with you. I, I do not know what to do with this guy. Between the off the field issues, between the on the field situation, where at this stage you Gotta imagine at 31 years old, he starts to lose just a little of that speed. The injuries last year, an enormous drop off year over year too, just for him. Now obviously injuries had a big part to do with that. But when you go from being wide receiver three, wide receiver two, and then dropping off to wide receiver 23, that's a fantasy killer. So Tyreek Hill is a player that I think a lot of us are unsure what to do with. Some of us want to draft him just at a certain adp just to price enforce, just in case. What are the projections screaming out to you?

[Derrick Brown]

I mean, dude, it's, they're right in line with his ADP and his ECR. Like right now he's wide receiver 14 and projections. He's wide receiver 15 and ADP and wide receiver 14 and ECR. That scares the crap out of me because I'm below consensus about that because that's what he, he didn't produce as this mid to high end wide receiver too. Like with Tua last year he was wide receiver 24 and he was outside the top in that, that stretch. So weeks 8 through 16 with 2A back, wide receiver 24 and outside the top 30 wide receivers of both target chair and yards per route run. Like this projection scares me because I feel like with the entire consensus is like Tyreek Hill is going to keep humming along and it's like we didn't see that last year. What's to make you think that this happens this year? Even if everything like magically works out perfectly, like I, I, I fail to find the ceiling in where he beats this projection or even meets it based off of how the Dolphins look this year, their offensive line isn't any better. The questions around TUA and the injury concern getting the ball out quick and that nuking Tyreek Hill which we saw last year, what out of any of that that we think is going to change or improve in 2025. So this projection and where we are, where the consensus is on Tyreek Hill scares the bejesus out of me because I. I can't see him paying off on this.

[Joe P. Zapia]

Well, Fitz, that's the thing, though. I mean, it is wide receiver 15 right now, right in the ADP. The ECR is right around there. Wide receiver 16. So you're getting a player who at his best is 1, 2 or 3. Right. That, that's a league winner kind of thing. I think that's hard to shake people, especially when it's a name player like Tyree Kill that they're so comfortable with drafting year over year and being elite and being great. He's coming off a year where he wasn't. There's enough of a discount here. Do the projections tell you that there's enough of a discount to get you excited about drafting him, or are you scared because of what you saw last season and maybe what you didn't see this offseason out of the Dolphins to make it better?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, it's a discount for sure. We're certainly not paying the price we were paying for the guy who went for 1700 yards two straight years. But yeah, I'm, I'm kind of with DBRO here. Like, we'll probably get some sort of bounce back from Tyreek if he stays healthy for most of the season. But like, I'm just not sure we're getting the 88 catch 1100 yard season the projections are forecasting. I think maybe the brightest ray of hope for Tyreek Hill is that to average like he averaged a career low 5.7 intended air yards per attempt last year to a dead and in 2023 was at 7.7 intended air yards per attempt, a full 2 yards more per attempt than last season. In 2022 he was at 9.5. So if Tua stays healthy and Mike McDaniel doesn't need to install a to a tongue of I lower preservation plan, maybe Tyreek goes back to being the Cheetah. But if we're seeing more of what we saw last year with everything being a dump off to a chan or a short little pasta, John who Smith and the receivers are, you know, in dry dock like they were last year, then yeah, he's not going to hit these projections.

[Joe P. Zapia]

But don't you think that was out of necessity because the offensive line was so bad last year you had to get rid of the football. And I just don't know if they've made enough improvements this year that that changes its stripes. That's it, right?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Like, still one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

[Joe P. Zapia]

See that?

[Derrick Brown]

And I think that's exactly where I'm at.

[Joe P. Zapia]

And I think we come back to that fact. When you're talking about Tyree Kill, it's like, okay. You can say okay, he's healthy now, everything's good. You could look at all the bright side of all these things, but the one just fact staring in the face of that offensive line did not improve enough. Nearly enough. And we find ourselves in that same scenario as we did in 2024. I think we're looking more like the guy we got in Tyreek in 2024 than the guy we got in 2023. Good conversations here. I want to keep the conversations going, but for a second, I just want to remind everybody the NBA Finals are here. They're going on right now, and this is your last shot to win some real cash before the season is over. And the simplest way to get in on that action? Well, it's downloading the Pick Six app from DraftKings. It's crazy simple. Just pick more or less on the stats for two of your favorite players and boom, you're in the mix for big cash prizes. No gimmicks, no weird rules. Just ball. So don't miss your last shot to win some cash as NBA season. Download the DraftKings Pick 6 app right now. Use that promo code Fantasy Pros. That's code Fantasy Pros. New customers play $5, you get $50 in bonus picks instantly ride the upside only on DraftKings Pick 6. The crown is yours.

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All right, let's get to another guy on our list here for the projections that scare us. Pep Fitz Morris, you've got a fellow named Kyron Williams on your list. What are you scared about when it comes to Kyron Williams? What more does this man have to do for you?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I know Joe. Um, the projections just make me uneasy. Kyren has finished RB2 and RB8 in half point PPR fantasy points per game the last two seasons. Last year he had 316 carries in 16 games. The only running backs with more carries than Kyron Williams in 2024 were Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Now Kyron is being projected for 278 carries this season, fewer than last year, but still a Pretty hefty total, 5th most of any running back in the projections. Now in terms of efficiency, Kyron was solid last year. Not great 4.1 yards per carry after being at 5.0 the year before. He was around 2.7 or 2.8 yards after contact per carry. Decent number, but I don't know it. It hasn't always been easy to peg Sean McVay's backfields like ask someone who invested in Cam Acres like I did a few years ago and got badly burned by it. And now the Rams like keep adding to their Backfield. They drafted Blake Corm in the third round last year. They drafted Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round this year. I just worry that Kyron might not be a locked in workhorse, but the projections are very confident that he's going to be exactly that.

[Joe P. Zapia]

Well, when it was Todd Gurley, it was pretty easy to remember where the ball was going for at least two years. It was pretty easy. I think we have a blind spot dbro as the fantasy football community. Sometimes when a player emerges out of thin air almost where people just never believe and then he does it and then they don't want to buy in a second time he does it again, that they sometimes have a hard time coming around and finding, you know, their soul of saying, well, maybe I was just off, maybe I missed this. And I feel like the fantasy community at large kind of miss Kyron Williams coming. And that's fair. There were a lot of reasons to fade him, but after these two years, I keep struggling with why we're fading him. I know why Fitz is. He makes good arguments. Are you making those same arguments when it comes to Kyron Williams at his ADP or at his projection?

[Derrick Brown]

I am, yeah. And, and I, I will be very clear about this. I was not fading Kyron last year. I was not worried about Blake Corum. I was much lower than consensus on Blake Corum as a prospect. As a player, he. There was a ton of red flags on Blake Corum's prospect profile. When you want to talk about his all 22 and what he showed on tape, his ability, his explosiveness and how much of that was robbed because of all the injuries. If you watch 2022 versus 2024. Also discussing a player that every single year in college, his tackle breaking metrics and efficiency dropped. Those are not all signals of a talented player that we need to really be worried about. So I was in on Kyron last year, but I am out this year. And a lot of this comes down to, I think we're staring at the same thing that I was discussing last year with Rashad White as an inefficient volume runner. And when, if there's not a talented enough running back in that room to take away the volume, then the inefficient volume hog continues on volume hogging. And then we're, we're good to go. But when a talented runner and an explosive runner enters the room in Jarquez Hunter this year, I think there should and there are concerns for Kyron Williams. Now again, we talked about, I, I think that People are putting a lot of respect on Kyron's name in ranking him as an RB one. Where they're at, there's not lot of people that have him below that. The projections are doing the same. And all this scares the ever loving crap out of me because I'm just like, dude, like I don't want people drafting him because all of this is volume stranglehold based. It's not because of the efficiency. And if that volume stranglehold goes away or gets diminished, then Kyron is not going to be an RB1, he's going to be an RB2 because even the narrative is wrong on Kyron and we've had the narrative wrong. Like whether we could talk about, okay, he's handled a lot more volume for his size than anybody ever expected coming into the NFL. All of the narratives about him being this illustrious pass catcher and the pass catching upside, none of that has come to fruition. He's been one of the most inefficient guys in the passing game. He doesn't get a lot of receptions. Like even we're projecting him for 35 receptions. I have no problems with that. But if he loses time, that can also go down. Stafford's not checking it down. Kyron's not checking passes. So if he doesn't continue this absolute stranglehold on the volume and this backfield, people are drafting him as an RB1. He easily could be an RB2 in this offense if either Corum or I think Jarquest Hunter is going to make a dent in that volume.

[Joe P. Zapia]

I feel personally attacked by the Rashad White comment because I had so many shares in last year and I just.

[Derrick Brown]

Did not see you in Erickson the.

[Joe P. Zapia]

Entire time and I didn't see Bucky Irving coming. Like, I just did not. I didn't. Or at least not that quickly. So there you go. All you can do. All right, one more name on both the lists here. D Ro, let's go back to you for a moment here. Xavier Worthy. Next on your list is another one too, where I think a lot of us are kind of looking at that and saying, all right, what we saw at the end of last year is fine, it was encouraging. But we don't know what it looks like when Rush E. Rice is back. And I think that's where I struggle. So that being said, how do you look at these projections and tell us why Xavier Worthy might scare you and some others off in 2025?

[Derrick Brown]

I mean, we are projecting. Not only do we have Xavier Worthy right now in PPR projections as the wide receiver 20. We have Rasheed Rice above him. He is the 19, 18, 17. He's a wide receiver 16.

[Joe P. Zapia]

I'm just, I'm just grateful that he was not more than 20 because hey, after that, I don't know.

[Derrick Brown]

He's close. I can get it alive.

[Joe P. Zapia]

Derek's already got the gloves off. He's got the shoes off, off. God only help us. Thank good he was under 20 counting.

[Derrick Brown]

I'm just happy it was inside of 20. Outside of that, once you get past 20, I don't even know what to do.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

But with.

[Derrick Brown]

With Xavier Worthy. Yeah, man. Like we're. We're projecting that Patrick Mahomes is going to support two top 20 wide receivers and Travis Kelce obviously is a tight end one this year. And I'm not saying that Patrick Mahomes can't do that theoretically, but the version of Patrick Mahomes that we've seen over the last two years has been absolutely God awful throwing deep down the field. And that's what I think Xavier Worthy's role is going to be in this offense. So can Mahomes improve as a deep passer? Sure, we've seen him be awesome in that. But over the last two years, is that more of who he is going forward? Being bottom 10 in every single accuracy metric 20 year, 20 yards or further down the field? If that's who he is, then Xavier Worthy is going to fall on his face. He's not going to produce at this level that projections have him at because he didn't even do that last year in that same role. And I know we highlighted this our conversation with Matt Harmon, but I'm going to mention this here again. Xavier Worthy at the back half of last year was producing in the Rasheed Rice role like his ADOT drop from 12.1 to 6.3. His design target rate doubled his fantasy points because I hate to tell people but in weeks one through 12 when you were all so frustrated with Xavier Worthy, he was the wide receiver 51 in fantasy points per game as the field stretching element in this offense. If he goes back into that role and Mahomes is still one of the worst deep ball passes in the NFL, he's not going to come close to paying off this projection. Not even close. Nowhere.

[Joe P. Zapia]

We had a really good breakdown with Matt Harmon. If you missed it, the reception perception. Fella himself was on earlier this week. Debo and I sat down with it. We went over some great wide receiver stuff. Go watch on the YouTube channel. That's a important show. You need to watch for playing fantasy this year. Fitzy, real quick, your take on Xavier Worthy and his projections.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

I mean, it's possible he could hit these receiving projections. 69 catches, 876 yards, eight touchdowns. You know, I do have some of the same reservations Debro has. But then you consider like the rushing projections for Worthy are pretty aggressive. 118 yards and 2.7 touchdowns. Like, I'm not counting on two or three touchdown runs for Xavier Worthy. So if we're building in some of his value based on that, it's kind of a rickety platform to build value on.

[Joe P. Zapia]

All right.

[Derrick Brown]

I was gonna say bring up the same thing, Fitzy, like that. That rushing projection is just a tad bit spicy.

[Joe P. Zapia]

It is, it is. All right, Fitzy, I mentioned earlier my, oh, I don't know, getting run over by Rashad White last year via Bucky Irving and he's on your list this year. So is karma coming back around?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, maybe. I mean, I don't think he is going to, you know, Bucky Irving's not going to lose his job back to Rashad White. Like Rashad White lost that job. Bucky took over as the lead back to Tampa down the stretch. And yeah, Rashad was in a pure backup role. I don't think there's any chance the pendulum swings back toward Rashad White barring injury. But I don't know. I've Bucky ranked RB7 in half point PPR. The projections have him an RB11. What scares me is that I don't really have much of a beef with the projections. Like they have Bucky with 234 carries, a little over 1100 rushing yards, eight TD runs, 43 and a half receptions for 349 yards and 1.8 touchdown catches. That's all pretty reasonable for, for Bucky's workload. And those rushing numbers actually give Bucky credit for being an efficient runner. They have him projected for 4.86 yards per carry. Yeah, he was at 5.4 last year, but like, that's going to be really hard to sustain. I was blown away by how good Bucky was last year. And I guess the reason, Yeah, I just, I'm scared by projections that I find reasonable that have him less valuable than I think he is. And you know, like, I thought he was a pretty solid option in the latter part of the second round of, of 2025 drafts. I know a lot of people think he's more of a third or fourth rounder and the projections seem to agree with the people in the third round, fourth round camp.

[Joe P. Zapia]

Well, you've heard all the scary stories now about Chase Brown, Tyreek Hill, Xavier Worthy, Drake May, Kyron Williams and Bucky Irving. But we'd like to hear from you all those guys somebody else who scares you in 2025. Drop your comments below in the YouTube channel. You might win yourself a George Pickens autograph jersey just for commenting and interacting. So there's a lot of players you could be scared about. Also, don't miss our players to be excited about because we're not going to live in fear. We're just not going to do that here on the channel. Subscribe to The Fantasy Pros YouTube channel. Drop your comments below again and of course we'll see you soon. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on. For DBRO and Pat Fitzmaurice, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time kids.

[AI Speaker]

Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts@Fantasy Pros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok @Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.

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