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FantasyPros - ARE THE RANKINGS WRONG? | Top 75 Overall Player Rankings & Impact (Ep. 1571)
01:02:13
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- [00:00]
Chris Welsh
You're listening to an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
Andrew Erickson
Hey guys, let me tell you about.
- [00:07]
Pat Fitzmaurice
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- [00:34]
Chris Welsh
Hello friends, and welcome in to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Football podcast. I'm Chris Welsh and today we are digging into some ranks. Yeah, it's early in the year, but it doesn't mean we're not talking about the big dogs. We have got your top 75 overall ranks. We're going to be going through it via the Fantasy Pro's ECR expert consensus ranks. All of our amazing rankers creating one big old glob of amazing rankness. But we're going to look at the impact what could possibly be wrong, and we'll be comparing it against the great and powerful Andrew Ericsson and Pat Fitzmaurice here as we go through the entire litany of it. Ericsson, I ask you this question real quick. Is it too early to be digging heavily or this much into like redraft overall ranks?
- [01:24]
Andrew Erickson
No, it is not too early because you see a lot of carryover from these rankings that go into best ball rankings. And it's funny, I think I was writing an article for the site and I typed in early rankings and then I thought to myself, is this early? Well, I think early was like February rankings when we were putting stuff out. So we are in May. Summer is just around the corner. This is the time to be in the weeds digging really deep and, and then adjusting everything after preseason usage. So again, we need to stick to our priors and come back to, oh, this is where we stood in the when we were doing the research, doing the math and not being, you know, pulled in a bad direction by, oh well, this guy played all the snaps at the preseason with the starters. Don't be swayed.
- [02:04]
Chris Welsh
You know, Fitzy, a really interesting experiment would be would be to like, look at what the ranks look like right now and then watch the crazy preseason stuff, you know, where everyone's reacting to one guy getting two snaps and 30 yards and, and then look at the ranks right before like all the major draft weekends happen and see what it looks like, because what I'm getting at is like, you know, with what we're seeing today versus your ranks versus ecr, do you expect there to be some big crazy volatility still going to happen or do you think this is going to really have like a nice shelf life that might even get people pared back down over the craziness of preseason?
- [02:42]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I mean, there will be some players where we see rankings, volatility. Welsh There always is with training camp news, injury stuff or even just like depth chart speculation. A coach says something in a particular interview that makes it sound like he's super high on a player or maybe a little sour on a player. And that moves the needle for ADP and ecr. So we will see things like that. But it's never too early. We got to get the jump on all those people in our leagues who don't pay attention to football news until after the Fourth of July.
- [03:13]
Chris Welsh
That's right. This is a trick question. It's never too early. And that's why we're here for you. And that's why we we've got all the amazing tools here at Fantasy Pros and these ECR ranks that we're going to be talking about. You can go and do your own research. Fantasypros.com rankings, half PPR, full PPR, Dynasty, Superflex, whatever it is that you've got, we've got those ranks and the ECRs got you covered where you can see who has them the highest, who's got them the lowest, the individual rankers. There's a lot of customization you can do with it. Fantasypros.com rankings you want to check it out for yourself, but we've got you guys covered right here because we are going to bring up the big boards. We are going to go in groupings of 15. I think you guys playing a bunch 15, sort of a baseball thing, playing in 15 team leagues. But we're going to go in those groupings of 15. I will list them out and then both of our fine gentlemen here, our analysts, are going to talk about some differences they have in their own personal ranks versus ECR because again, this isn't their ranking, but their rankings do make a important piece to how this ECR comes out. So going over to the big board, we're looking at 1 through 15. Jamar Chase is your leader at the tippy top here, wide receiver coming in at number one, followed by Saquon Barkley at two. Bijan Justin Jefferson, Jameer Gibbs, CD Lamb. That is tier one so that is the tier one that is identified by all of our rankers, the big core players which you've got three running backs and three wide receivers funny enough, seven through 15, Puka Nakua, Amanra, St. Brown, Malik Neighbors, Ashton Chinty coming in at 10, followed by Nico Collins, Brian Thomas, Derek Henry, Devon Achan and Brock Bowers. So we've got some interesting ones in there. Let's start with the rookie and Pat, let's start with you then real quick, Ashton Genty, ECR10 how much higher can he go? We've gone down this road before. I think everyone is going to test the rankings. I think it was maybe you and me with Jake Seeley where we were really pushing it earlier in the season or maybe it was me and Erickson where it was like how high can Ashen Genty go? How much higher do you think he can go in your own personal ranks and what is maybe the ceiling of what draft season he can get pushed to?
- [05:21]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I have him at 7 overall Welsh and I wouldn't be surprised if he got as high as 4 or 5 depending on how things go in training camp and the preseason. I went back and looked at the fantasy pro's historical ADP from 2017, the year Saquon Barkley entered the league. Saquon's rookie year ADP was seventh overall behind Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Brown and Alvin Kamara. Hard to believe that was only eight years ago, huh? Saquon and Kamara are the only ones still around, but Saquon paid off on that seventh overall ADP at 2028 yards from scrimmage, 15 touchdowns as a rookie. He, he finished as the RB 2 1/2 point PPR, just 2.3 points behind leader Todd Gurley. I don't need to wait until the back end of the first round of draft Ashton Genti just because he hasn't compiled any sort of NFL resume yet. We know the prospect profile is extraordinary, just like it was with Saquon Barkley eight years ago. Um, Genty is positioned for a big, big workload with the Raiders. His play caller is going to be Chip Kelly who operates at a fast pace. My only real concern is that the Raiders weren't a very good run blocking team last year. They ranked 30th in the league in adjusted line yards. But then again The Giants ranked 29th in adjusted line yards in Saquon's rookie season and he did okay for himself that year.
- [06:43]
Chris Welsh
Erickson, true or false? Ashton Gente is RB4 at the end of this year.
- [06:49]
Andrew Erickson
False. Because he finished as a top three running back and I said, yup.
- [06:53]
Chris Welsh
I knew it was coming up. We're not talking about him on your list here, but where do you have Genti?
- [06:58]
Andrew Erickson
I have him five.
- [07:00]
Pat Fitzmaurice
So baby, that's awesome.
- [07:01]
Andrew Erickson
I want him on my fantasy team. When I do a lot of these rankings for 2025, I'm thinking about, okay, who drafting at the top of 2026, isn't it not Ash and Genti. Wouldn't he be one of the best candidates to BE who's the 101 next season? Yeah, maybe it's not perfect in week one for Ash and Genti. Again, he's a rookie, but we've seen not only receivers hit the ground running, but it's always rookie running backs, especially ones that are drafted this highly. Again, it's a little bit of a throwback where we don't usually see running backs go this high in the NFL draft nowadays, but when we do, when we see a guy go sixth overall, we have to take advantage of this is a rare special player. And the Raiders recognize that they have a ton of needs on their team. They're like, nah, we're going to take the best running back. He's the best player. And obviously running back was a need for them as well. But they could have gone another direction. They could have drafted another offensive lineman, but they didn't. They're like, we want Ash and Genti and and I think having stability at quarterback with Geno Smith, I think that's helpful. He's someone that's going to dump the ball off to Ashton Genti. So I think the wheels are up and I want youth. I want the young buck on my team to finish the season strong. So give me Ashton genti and his 350 touches.
- [08:07]
Chris Welsh
Let's get spicy here for a minute. Let's. Let's cause some comments to pop up in the. In the YouTube video because let's talk about Saquon Barkley, ECR number two. So he is the number one running back according to all of the aggregate analysts. Number two. So number one running back, number two overall. Not for Mr. Andrew Erickson. Andrew Erickson. I know the answer to this, but let's hear it. Saquon Barkley or Ashton Genti this year?
- [08:32]
Andrew Erickson
I'm drafting Ashton Genti. I'm not drafting Saquon Barkley and I have him ranked at 10. I'm not going to argue if he should be 10, 9, 8, 7. I don't think that he should be the number one running back ranked. I don't think he should be the number one overall pick ranked because he's coming off a season where he touched the ball nearly 500 times and this is a process play for me. Chasing the running back that led the NFL and touches the year before is essentially the kiss of death for running backs the following year. We just saw it this past year with Christian McCaffrey. Year before that, Josh Jacobs fell off a cliff. Only two running backs have finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013, and Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that entire time frame to do it and finish inside the top five back to back seasons. So even if Saquon finishes top five, he's still not number one. So I'm just going with the process play. I get that if he stays healthy, I'm probably going to be wrong. Especially if they ban the tush push and SAQUON Barkley scores 20 touchdowns. But just based on what we've seen historically, based on the trends that I think hold some weight as we are projecting these players into the future, I'm just going to fade Saquon and that's my strategy.
- [09:37]
Chris Welsh
Pat Jinty or Barkley for you?
- [09:41]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I've got Barkley ranked higher right now. I've got him RB2 behind Bijan. No, I totally get it. Erickson. I mean 482 touches last year if you include playoffs. Age 28. I totally get it. But I guess the one thing I would say in Saquon's defense is that he probably does have the best offensive ecosystem of any running back in the league.
- [10:03]
Chris Welsh
Very interesting. Very interesting. For all of you want to know Genty or Barkley comments, drop them for the overall ranks. A little bit of a different not not as much of a difference as you would potentially think from two to 10 here. Let's go Pat. You got another one in the top 10 here that I think is really interesting. We're back into seeing or top 15. We're seeing a tight end. Tight end is pushing back ECR 15. You got Brock Bowers even higher though. First round tight ends always make my stomach queasy. Brock Bowers doesn't quite do it, but you're pushing him higher than ECR. So 15 overall. How much higher?
- [10:40]
Pat Fitzmaurice
12Th overall. And I do think Brock Bauer should go at the turn in 12 team drafts. Travis Kelce used to go late in the first round in most fantasy drafts and while I personally was not a first round Travis Kelce guy. I totally understood it. Tight end is always such a problematic position and Kelsey was an emphatic solution to that problem. Here's the thing. I think it's even easier to justify bowers as a first rounder in 2025 than it was with Kelsey a few years ago. Bowers played most of his rookie season at the age of 21. He had 112 catches and almost 1200 yards receiving. Even though the Raiders had one of the worst QB situations in the league, Bowers finished third among all pass catchers and receptions. That includes wide receivers. He was behind only Jamar Chase and Amon Ra Sait Brown as a tight end at age 21. And now the Raiders have an aggressive downfield thrower in Geno Smith. And again we have the Chip Kelly factor. Fast pace, a lot of plays. And by the way, Zach Ertz had some pretty good years under Chip Kelly when they were in Philly together back in the day. So yes, I do think Powers is a clear tier above anyone else at tight end. I love George Kittle, but he's getting older and his usage can kind of vary from game to game. A lot of times they just use him more as a blocker. Bowers is faster than Trey McBride, had a much better college career, doesn't have the touchdown allergy like McBride does. So I really think you can make a strong case for Bowers being a back end of the first round tight end.
- [12:15]
Chris Welsh
Pretty cool wheel you could do in a 12 team league. You got Brian Thomas and Brock Bowers. That's a pretty good start, which I think most of us would be relatively comfortable with. Unless you don't like tight end. So Erickson, I guess really the only thing is is, does. Does Brock Bowers belong in the first round?
- [12:32]
Andrew Erickson
Loaded question.
- [12:33]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Welsh, of course.
- [12:33]
Andrew Erickson
Does he belong the first round? So I have him right outside. So I'm pretty close to ECR. So I have him at 16. So fully fading. Brock Bowers. That's not, that's not really the case here because I think that Fitz lays out a really good point just how talented Brock Bowers is. The situation. I felt better about being lower on Bowers when it wasn't Geno Smith as the quarterback. But then when they landed him like man, like this is like a really good spot for Brock Bowers because at least you could have made the argument, well, it's gonna be bad quarterback play again. Can he do it again? But he's got Geno Smith so I feel good about that and I feel, I think it's really more about just how you're attacking the tight end position. It's not that I want to fade Bowers, it's more or less I want to draft late round tight end. Like that's the strategy I want to go with. And I know last year Bowers obviously was a late round tight end and you talk about yes, some of the early tight ends hit such as like a Trey McBride, but some of the early round tight ends were also really bad last year. And if you had gone early round tight end, what did that mean? You missed out on Brock Bowers potentially as a rookie. Missed out on John who Smith who finishes the tight end four. So I don't always loved pigeonholing myself like Brock Bowers is my tight end. I'm locked and loaded. I'm not going late round tight. I'm not going to the waiver wire for a tight end. So that's the only hesitance I have about him. But I don't have any problem with his rank and where he is but the reason for not picking him where he is going in drafts or an ecr, which is because he hey, I like the receivers here. I like this receiver running back pairing and I'm going to take tight end, I'm going to punt off the position.
- [13:51]
Chris Welsh
The top of the wide receivers in the first round for Erickson's last one, they're pretty interesting. Obviously Jamar Chase is kind of back. Justin Jefferson has reestablished CD Lamb. That one kind of stands out. ECR6, you definitely could see there's more upside. And Erickson, you have got him higher. Amazingly, he is one of very, very few players that you have above Ashton Genti. Different position of course, but CD Lamb, you were higher than ecr. What's your take on I mean is this a potential number one? Like could you see CD Lamb overtaking even Jamar Chase this year?
- [14:22]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think it is. Because who are we draft who was the consensus number one receiver last year? I had Chase, but ECR had CD Lamb. So, so what happened between this year and last year where oh well now because Lamb got hurt, Dak got hurt. Well now CD Lamb can't be wide receiver one. We saw him have a monster season in 2023 with a healthy Dak Prescott. He's getting Dak Prescott back. Now I get Dak has been banged up. He's been dealing with injuries, getting older. But when Brian Schottenheimer was the offensive play caller 2023, that's the year we saw Dak and CD Lamb explode. So I wanted to point this out because I can't rank Justin Jefferson ahead of CD Lamb because I know who Dak Prescott is and I don't know who J.J. mcCarthy is as an NFL quarterback. And that concerns me. So for ECR to have Justin Jefferson ahead of CD Lamb and it just kind of like, well, last year it wasn't like this and we had question marks about Jefferson and I mean, if Dak Prescott hadn't gotten injured, I think Lamb would have finished inside the top three because he was playing pretty well the first seven games with Dak Prescott. Top five fantasy numbers per game. So yeah, I, I like CD Lamb a lot. I think that he's, he's coming at a discount, I think.
- [15:27]
Chris Welsh
So Fitzy, CD Lamb or Justin Jefferson?
- [15:30]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh man, I've got it neck and neck right now. I do have Jefferson ranked a little bit higher. I'm not as worried about the McCarthy, the quarterback factor as Erickson is, but like you can absolutely. I have no beef whatsoever with taking CD Lamb ahead of Justin Jefferson. And if faced with that choice, I think I would want to split it up like 50. 50.
- [15:49]
Chris Welsh
Oh yeah. If you were. If you're like consolidated with 10 drafts, you're trying to have just different shares of it. Well, it's a very interesting question, one that we are going to watch in ECR as we get closer to draft season. We've got the next 15 coming up. But first, it's officially the best time of the year for hoops fans. Playoff drama, buzzer beaters, all the chaos we live for. And if you're done just watching and ready to actually win some cash, you got to check out pick six from DraftKings. Nobody's dropping better payouts than pick six. Hit six picks and that's 25 times your cash. And if you beat your competition, you could be looking at a 500x bag in your pocket. It's super simple. You just select your picks, track your score and go for those big time prizes. No gimmicks, just straight up fun. Pick six is live in most states like Missouri, California, Texas, Georgia and plenty more. So yeah, don't settle for weak payouts. Make your picks with pick six and let your basketball brain pay off. New to DraftKings pick six new customers. Toss in just $5 on your first entry and you'll get $50 in bonus picks instantly. The playoffs are on, so why not take a shot at making a little more money? But while you're watching, download DraftKings Pick Six app right now and use code FantasyProse. That's code Fantasy Pros to play $5 and get 50 in bonus picks better payouts, bigger wins only on Pick Six from DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gambling Problem Call 1-800- Gambler Help is.
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Chris Welsh
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Pat Fitzmaurice
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Pat Fitzmaurice
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Chris Welsh
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Andrew Erickson
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Chris Welsh
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Pat Fitzmaurice
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Chris Welsh
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- [19:39]
Andrew Erickson
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Chris Welsh
I'm Greg Lodd and this is season two of the War on Drugs podcast. Sir, we are back in a big way.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
In a very big way. Real people, real perspectives.
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Chris Welsh
This is kind of star studded a little bit, man. We got Ricky Williams, NFL player, Heisman Trophy winner.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
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Chris Welsh
We have this misunderstanding of what this quote unquote drug thing is. Benny the Butcher, Brent Smith from Shinedown, got be real from Cypress Hill, NHL.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
Enforcer Riley Cote, Marine Corvette, MMA fighter Liz Caramouche.
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Andrew Erickson
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Pat Fitzmaurice
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Chris Welsh
Stories matter and it brings a face to them. It makes it real.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
It really does. It makes it real.
- [20:28]
Andrew Erickson
Listen to new episodes of the War.
- [20:30]
Chris Welsh
On Drugs Podcast Season 2 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [20:36]
Andrew Erickson
And to hear episodes one week early and ad free with exclusive content, subscribe.
- [20:41]
Pat Fitzmaurice
To Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcast.
- [20:50]
Chris Welsh
Gentlemen, let's go. Picks 16 through 30, the next 15 here and we are going to kick it off with my boy Christian McCaffrey falling all the way down at 16. That is RB7 on the list. AJ Brown, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Josh Jacobs. That rounds out your top 20. Starting at 21, we've got Jonathan Taylor, Ladd McConkey, Trey McBride, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. So we got two quarterbacks at 24, 25, Kyren Paris, Jackson, Smith and Jigba. And this moves us into a tier 4 which includes Chase Brown, T. Higgins and Tyreek hill. That is 16 through 30 in some degree. Second third round picks for most in fantasy. Ericsson, why don't we start with you here and we're talking about a wide receiver in Drake, London, ECR 19. There's, let's see, what is he? Wide receiver, 10 on this list which is pretty good setup but you've got him quite a bit higher. So much so he's a first round pick for you this season. So let's hear the rank on Drake London and why he's so high.
- [21:50]
Andrew Erickson
So I have Drake London, my 11th ranked overall player and it's because I love his red zone potential. With Michael Penix, you know talking about how Jamar Chase last year, what could we have seen when we're trying to project him? Why? What made me so bullish on him being the wide receiver one in 2024 and it was because the guy commanded a high level of red zone targets. And when you look historically at who is the number one receiver in fantasy football every single year, it's the guy again you score the most points of course, but it's the guy who sees the most red zone targets. And all Drake London has done since entering the NFL besides having mostly horrible quarterback play is command red zone targets. Over the last three seasons he has led the NFL and wide receivers in red zone target rate. So basically whenever they're in the red zone he has the highest rate of being targeted. So last year, end of the year 23 red zone targets that tied for the third most among all wide receivers. He's also a target hog. Third highest target rate per outrun at 30% with Michael Penix as his quarterback last year he was targeted on 41 of his routes run look I got Michael Pennix was a bit of an incomplete. We didn't see a full season out of him. But if he takes that next step entering year two as the full time entrenched starter, the team is obviously very behind him as the number one guy. I think Drake London could be a top three if not the number one overall receiver if he works well when it comes to touchdowns because I think that's what his ceilings. I think that he could score 15 touchdowns attached to Michael Penic. So again the only thing I could see going against this would be if Bijon ends up getting all the touchdowns. Either way I both I like the RB one for the Falcons and I like the wide receiver one for the Falcons. So that's why I'm really bullish on Drake London.
- [23:27]
Chris Welsh
Fitzy, let me take a different take on asking you about Drake London. I feel like we've had quite a few years of heavy wide receiver heavy wide receiver valuations this year it's pretty interesting. On ECR it's almost split RB to wide receiver and maybe I'm like if I were looking at previous years it would be a little bit weighted later. But through the top 20 there are nine running backs. Through the top 20 the only thing breaking it from being a complete split is Brock Bowers. So you have nine running backs you've got 11 wide receivers and one tight end. Do you think the idea of drake London at 11 is okay if you put prioritization more in wide receivers than running backs, which seems to be happening maybe a little bit. There's like a slight little resurgence of running back value popping back up. Or do you think that we should be valuing running backs a little bit higher which pushes a guy like Drake London back a little bit?
- [24:16]
Pat Fitzmaurice
No, I think the reason for that phenomenon is that we had this unusual circumstance last year of running backs staying extraordinarily healthy and having great injury luck. So all these guys who were drafted as running back twos really like popped and gave us almost like running back one production. It was a really good year for like top 25 running backs and I think that's reflected this year. And last year there were wide receivers getting hurt at a really crazy clip. So that's kind of why it's happening. I think London is absolutely worthy of being drafted close to the turn. I'm not quite as high as Erickson, but I'm higher on him than ecr, so kind of splitting the difference. I think I've got him 15th overall and yeah, you know, I'm a Kirk Cousins hater and I love Michael Penix. So I absolutely think this sets up really well for Drake London.
- [25:09]
Chris Welsh
Well, unfortunately that awesome resurgence of running back injuries did not float over to the one guy that we're going to talk about in Christian McCaffrey. He would be the one that really got smacked with it. But it is an all time value and you have all time running back value popping up. Here he is ECR 16. So that is a second round pick if you want to invest. But Pat, you don't seem too excited about investing. You are a bit lower on Christian McCaffrey than the consensus is at all related to. You do not think he will stay healthy and he's not going to be on the field or is there something more?
- [25:41]
Pat Fitzmaurice
No, it's pretty much that Welsh. And yeah, I didn't Even count Christian McCaffrey as part of that trend of good health for running backs because we didn't even have Christian McCaffrey at the beginning of the season. So many drafters got burned so badly. And I think the 49ers kind of showed us last year that they can't be trusted to be forthright about McCaffrey's health or lack thereof. So McCaffrey is about to turn 29. He's missed six or more games in five of the last seven years. He's missed nine or more games in four of the last seven years. I think McCaffrey can be a worthwhile risk if you are in a league full of sharks because you might need to take some, some risk to have a chance to, you know, topple the sharks. But if you are one of the Sharks, McCaffrey is not a risk worth taking because when you're a shark, your emphasis in the first two rounds should be on avoiding the bear traps. And with his injury history, McCaffrey is definitely a potential bear trap.
- [26:44]
Chris Welsh
Erickson, call me a guppy because I see Christian McCaffrey in the second round and I am swimming over, but I get it, he's becoming a little bit of the Mike Trout of football right now with injuries. But what say you, Erickson? Where are you at on Christian McCaffrey? Break my hopes and throw me in the pond when you tell me he's going to be outside your top 25 or something.
- [27:04]
Andrew Erickson
No, he is not outside my top 25. He is someone we talked about McCaffrey on the draft or pass show myself, Joe Psapia and Debro and he was a guy who was drafting. I love taking him in the second round because yes, we faded him last year because he was coming off all the touches. Well this year he's coming off 60 touches or 65 touches, whatever. The lowest of his NFL career year. He's never come off a season with less work and tear on his tires.
- [27:26]
Chris Welsh
He's super healthy now. He didn't even play last year. He's great.
- [27:29]
Andrew Erickson
So I think that from what you get from a per game basis with him, Kyle Shanahan can say whatever. Like the guy can't help himself. He sees CMC on the fields like need to give this guy 30 touches no matter what and you know that's not good for CMC's long term value and health. But when he's on the field, I mean he's going to be in weekly rank. Where are we going to rank him in week one, week one rankings? He's not going to be outside the top 13, I can tell you that much. So when he's again at all is a health question. There's a reason why again I still haven't ranked below Saquon even though I'm lower on Saquon. I wouldn't take him over Saquon Barkley because I'm playing the injury card with Barkley as well and but he's coming off a healthy season so I, I will stop the sake one fade at McCaffrey. But right. If Barkley's gone, like McCaffrey's the next running back I'm looking for and I love getting the discount. Round two.
- [28:11]
Chris Welsh
Could we have a moment from the crow this is. Only old people are going to get it. Where we fire it up. If you get CD Lamb in the second round, you get Christian McCaffrey. Can we just have an all time fire it up roster?
- [28:21]
Andrew Erickson
I mean, that's. Those were two top three picks last year.
- [28:24]
Chris Welsh
Yeah.
- [28:24]
Andrew Erickson
And you get both on your team.
- [28:25]
Chris Welsh
All right, well, you know, we don't come at me when he's injured again. I get it. I just.
- [28:30]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I can't. No kidding. Just alert the European doctors so they can be ready to have McCaffrey in tip top shape for the 2020.
- [28:36]
Chris Welsh
Yeah. Who knows what they did over in Germany. He might have new cabs and stuff like that. Everything might be new. Germany, they make a great car and probably make great cabs for football players or whatever he had done. Uh, let's. Eric. So let's go to another running back. We talked a lot about him last year on the shows that we were doing. Chase Brown. Chase Brown comes in with an ECR of 28. He's actually the top of tier four. So so far as you've seen, it took 27 players to have three tiers of value on ECR. Again, fantasypros.com rankings, if you want to see what those look like. Those are, you know, just kind of globs of like these guys are in general spaces of value, whether you want to maybe move to different positional stuff. But Chase Brown starts off the next tier at tier four at 28. But you have him higher. You actually have him as a second round pick. So let's talk about how many picks higher as far as ECR rank goes and why you've got him so high.
- [29:27]
Andrew Erickson
So I have him at number 23 and it's because it's Chase Brown season, it's full go. I'm not concerned about, you know, the current state of this backfield where you have Samaj P. Ryan, you have Zach Moss coming off a season ending neck injury and they drafted Taj Brooks in round six. And he's really good in pass protection. Okay, great. Chase Brown when he was the bell cow for the Bengals last year, RB5 in points per game, RB1 expected points per game. Basically no running back had better usage or better deployment to score fantasy points than Chase Brown did. So can I guarantee he's going to have the same role? No. But I can tell you that within his range of outcomes, he has a ceiling that he outscores every other running back. And to get that guy in the start of round three, end of round two, I want him all day, every day. Again, I see Chase Brown, as you know, what we've seen for years past with Kyren, we're thinking, oh man, someone's going to get more involved, he's going to break down. We've seen Chase Brown at Illinois be a workhorse last year, be a workhorse. What are we going to see in 2025? Chase Brown be a workhorse and arguably one of the best offenses in the NFL. So I am all go on Chase Brown and I'm not really concerned about the rest of these depth pieces in the backfield. So I want a lot of him on my teams.
- [30:37]
Chris Welsh
Pat, you. Let's say you go tight end, wide receiver, let's say you get Bowers and you get a wide receiver and you tell yourself you want a running back in the third round. Kyron Williams or Chase Brown.
- [30:47]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Chase Brown, without.
- [30:49]
Chris Welsh
Without hesitation.
- [30:50]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean, there's never going to be any pushback from me on Chase Brown. Love, you know, I do think it's possible they dial back the workload a bit this year now that they've got other options. Taj Brooks and I don't know, maybe we, we see Zach Moss a little bit. But yeah, I mean, Chase Brown just showed last year. He's really good and he's playing in one of the best offenses in the league.
- [31:12]
Chris Welsh
One of the most polarizing players not named, Christian McCaffrey. I probably say of this list that we're talking about, this would be the second most polarizing player is Tyreek Hill. And I think he is going to vary across the board of. Some people might even make excuses to get him back into the first round for the big playability. He comes in at ECR 30 here, but Tyreek Hill is pushed much further down. For you, Mr. Pat Fitzmaurice, is this built around the offense? Is this built around Waddle? Is this built around, you know, his deterioration as a player or d is it all the above? So talk to us about how far down Tyreek Hill is on your ranks compared to ecr Kind of all the above.
- [31:53]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Welsh. I just, I want no part of 31 year old Tyreek Hill coming off a bad year playing with a Dolphins team that seems like it could be on the way down. I mean, sure, it's possible. Tyreek's disappointing 2024 season was just a Mirage and he he goes right back to being the 1700 yard guy he was in 2022 and 2023. But it's also possible that 2024 was just the beginning of the end and I don't really want to pay a mid third round price to to find out. Nor do I really want my third rounder's productivity to be tied to the health of Tuatanga Vailoa. The relationship between Tyreek and the Dolphins doesn't seem great these days. I'm just not really interested in drafting Tyreek unless I get a major discount and it looks like I'm not going to get a major discount based on ecr.
- [32:41]
Chris Welsh
Erickson, you and I have an interesting relationship with the Dolphins last year people watch on betting pros and our Tyreek Hill more Jalen Waddle than anything. Is it Jalen Waddle season and are we letting go of Tyree Kill or are you still back in?
- [32:54]
Andrew Erickson
I am passing on Tyreek Hill. It was another play we talked about in the draft or pass show and Tyree Kill was very low on my priority list. Again Fitz laid out some of the concerns as just did you. An older player coming off a very bad season and even when Tua was healthy last year, he still underperformed versus expectation. Then you have the outburst at the end of the year where he wants to move from the team. He has this wrist injury thing that he's dealing with. How many more red flags do we need to to see here with Tyree Killer? It's like maybe we should you know, take her foot off the gas pedal just a little bit. But to Fitz's point he's also still Tyree Kill like he's someone that you he's always goes in the first round as one of the first receivers drafted. So when people see the name I think oh I want to click on Terry Kill by by the dip. But I mean if the dip is now he's shipped off to another team and we don't know what his usage is going to be potentially I don't feel like dabbling. And to be honest too I I do like Jalen Waddle as kind of like a discount buy for no now it seems like the third year in a row but I also am getting really bad vibes from this Dolphins is anyone to be team if this team like totally tanks and like Daniel gets canned and it's just a whole rebolt like two of them move on from him. So this Dolphins team overall is starting to concern me as I just kind of look at them from a holistic standpoint. And I mean, is Tyree Kill on the team in week 18, in 2025? What do you guys think? You think he's on the team still?
- [34:11]
Chris Welsh
I'm gonna say. I'm gonna say no. I mean, is he on the team? Is he on the team week one?
- [34:14]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, this is. There's too many red flags with Tyreek to take him ECR 30 for me.
- [34:18]
Chris Welsh
Okay, there you go. I actually think he might even be one of those guys unless there's a collective narrative across the industry. He could even move up a little bit if there's some positive vibe, positive talks in preseason. And hey, he looks fresh legged and all of a sudden he goes up because of that talent. But I think you're probably safer more than anything. Fading a bit. You guys can experiment with exactly where Tyreek Hill can go and all the players we've talked about. With our draft simulator, you can finish a full mock draft against realistic opponents in just minutes. There's no waiting for picks. You can customize settings to match your exact league format. You can test different strategies. You can do that tight end, early heavy wide receiver or heavy running back. And then you can see how your team's grayed out instantly. And best of all, you can try it for free at fantasypros.com mock fantasypros.com mock do it today. Get ready and get rolling with the Fantasy pros draft simulator. Next 15 is up. Let's go to the big board. We are 31 through 45. Got another quarterback kicking us off here at 31. Jaden Daniels, followed by Mike Evans, Terry McClaurin, Breece Hall, James Cook, Garrett Wilson, Devonte Adams, now with the rams. Jalen Hurts, D.J. moore, George Kittle, Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker, Rasheed Rice. That ends out tier four. Remember, tier four started at 28, so that's a big grouping. And then the last two do start off tier five. Zay Flowers and Marvin Harrison Jr. So that is your 31 through 45. Erickson, let's go to you and let's talk about Garrett Wilson. We've had a lot of conversations built around the running backs and how there could be some committee, but Garrett Wilson looking a little bit better. ECR 36 on this list. So that mid tier 4, but you've got him quite a bit higher. So let's talk about that rank boost.
- [36:03]
Andrew Erickson
I have Garrett Wilson at number 25 overall because I'm buying this Justin Fields connection potentially with Garrett Wilson. Again, former teammates at Ohio State. So we saw Fields unlock a ceiling with DJ Moore in their season together in 2023 with the Chicago Bears. So yes, I think that Justin Fields, although he's not perfect as a passer, he's shown, hey, if I am hyper targeting one guy on the offense and fluttering him with targets, then that guy can be a top six fantasy finisher. And Garrett Wilson, I know last year was really frustrating, but it was a career year for him. He was still a fantasy wide receiver one last year despite sharing the the love of Aaron Rodgers with Devonte Adams for the second half of the season, which really hurt his numbers. But when you look at just targets, right, Garrett Wilson since entering the NFL, the only guys that have more targets than him are Devonte Adams, his his former teammate who had to split again targets with the second half of last year and CB Lamb. That's it. And you look at this jets depth chart behind Garrett Wilson, Josh Reynolds is this guy, is it Mason? We're getting excited about Mason Taylor, who's the most Dalton Schultz tight end ever. That just is a system produced tight end and we're excited about him getting targets in this offense. It's going to be the Garrett Wilson show I get even if they're run heavy, I think Wilson's going to see flirt with a potential 30 target share and I'm willing to to buy into that upside of a player that could see a boatload of targets from Justin Fields, who again has unlocked a player before. So I think he's too low because I think I love the talent and I think that maybe this is again another season of Garrett Wilson, maybe with the best quarterback play of his career. Maybe that's a little bit of a stretch, but I do think there is some upside here.
- [37:42]
Chris Welsh
Pat, I know these are two different positions, but who will you have more shares of, Garrett Wilson or Breece Hall? And I ask that because Breece hall on ECR is higher than Garrett Wilson. So take out the positional thing there. Who do you think you have more shares of?
- [37:55]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Garrett Wilson? No question. Aaron Glenn has basically said he doesn't want to have a lead back, he wants a committee and people seem to be ignoring that with the ranking of Breeze hall and you know, like I'm not quite as high on Garrett Wilson as Erickson is, but I'm ahead of ECR on him for sure and like I might even be able to move Garrett Wilson a little higher than I have him right now. Like I've got him at 30, 34 and you know, like I have him behind T. Higgins and Terry McLaurin and I do think there's a case that Wilson should be ahead of those guys. But T. Higgins as Joe burrow as his QB. I trust Joe Burrow. Terry McLaurin as Jaden Daniels. I trust Jaden Daniels. Garrett Wilson is Justin Fields. I'm cautiously optimistic about Fields, but I don't have the same level of trust in him that I do with Burrow and Jaden Daniels.
- [38:45]
Chris Welsh
One wide receiver you have got higher than Garrett Wilson and you've got quite a bit higher than consensus is Mike Evans. Mike Evans comes in at ECR 32. Fitz, you've got him at 26. He's aging like a fine wine, I suppose. So talk to us about Mike Evans.
- [39:01]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah. And that's it. Welsh, he is getting a little older. He turns 32 in August. Maybe the Tampa Bay offense isn't as sharp now that Liam Cohen has left for Jacksonville. I do still think Evans is a pretty low risk, high yield investment. Just had his 11th straight thousand yard season. Dramatic fashion at the end, getting it on one of the last plays of the game even though he missed three games with the hamstring, which is really one of the only injuries this dude has ever had. He's just been indestructible for the most part. Eleven touchdowns in 14 games last year and Evans has had double digit TDs in four of the last five years. He averaged 2.52 yards per route run last season. That was actually a career best. So I'm not worried about age. I'm not worried about target competition. I'm not worried about the absence of Liam Cohen. I just want to keep betting on a player who pays off every freaking year. So I'm going to keep drafting Mike Evans.
- [39:56]
Chris Welsh
Wasn't it Ericsson? Remember we were talking about it when it happened. Didn't he like throw a huge pout when he didn't get it and then he got it and he just like leave the field. All timer for Mike Evans. Let's do this. Rank these guys. Erickson, Garrett Wilson, Mike Evans and Devonte Adams.
- [40:18]
Andrew Erickson
Interesting names there. Okay, so I have it. Garrett Wilson, Devonte Adams, Mike Evans. But they are all in the same. And when I look at my tiers, they're all in the same tier 3 for me among receivers.
- [40:29]
Chris Welsh
I said Adams is interesting because Adams is 37 on ECR. So he's the lowest of these wide receivers from an ECR perspective, Mike Evans being the highest of them. And you've got Evans at the bottom of that list. Obviously you're A Garrett Wilson guy. So any just quick takes on Mike Evans?
- [40:45]
Andrew Erickson
No, I mean I, I don't hate Mike Evans again. I just have him ranked there just because maybe I like the upside case. I guess I'm willing to sacrifice the safety of Evans again. Locked and loaded 1000 yard receiver every single year, coming off such a career year in terms of efficiency. But I do want to try to chase a little bit of that ceiling with Garrett Wilson. And again, it's Mike Evans going to stay healthy all year. Decent amount of target competition in Tampa Bay with Godwin. The two young receivers with McMillan and Egbuka coming in as a first round pick, so. And Evans too, to his, to his style. He does have a little boomer bust to his game where he disappears for some time, but then he blows up on a 30 point game, which especially in redraft. I was thinking about it. He's one of those guys where your opponent has him and you're like beat a sweat goes down your forehead. You're like, oh no, not my guess. Does he have a thousand yards yet? Am I safe? So, so I do like that. But from a consistency standpoint, I think Garrett Wilson, I mean, I think he could see double digit targets every single week with the Jets. So I just lean towards the ceiling a little bit more with him.
- [41:42]
Chris Welsh
All right, it's not all rosy, so we'll see. Are these two fine gentlemen wrong? Because we are going to focus on two wide receivers that you guys are lower than ECR on. And Pat, let's jump over. Yeah, we'll just jump over to yours here real quick because the name just jumps out to me, even though I think we started with you on the last one as well is Rasheed Rice. Rasheed Rice comes in at 43, wide receiver, 20 on this list. And this is another one of those where like you've got him quite a bit lower. So talk to us. He is outside of the 50. So I mean this is like around and a half, I guess difference if you want to use it like that on the overall. So Rasheed Rice, why are we out almost.
- [42:19]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I've got him at 58 overall. So right now with Rasheed Rice at an ECR of 43 and Xavier Worthy at 54, at least one of those guys has to be a colossal disappointment at their current cost, right? I mean, maybe not. If, if Patrick Mahomes goes back to being a 5,000 yard 40 touchdown quarterback like he was in 2022. But Mahomes has been closer to 4,000 yards the last two years. Didn't even reach 4,000 last year. 27 TD passes in 20, 23, 26 last year. So I would feel better about Rasheed rice as a 4th rounder if Xavier Worthy didn't exist or if Travis Kelsey had retired. But I don't know when Rasheed Rice really caught fire in his rookie season. Late late November, December, and in the big playoff game against Miami, he was getting nine or ten targets pretty much every game. It's just hard to see Rasheed Rice consistently getting nine to ten targets a game. Now that Xavier Worthy got really hot down the stretch and with Travis Kelce still around.
- [43:23]
Chris Welsh
It's kind of interesting though, because we. What did we call it all year? We called it the Rashi Rice roll. You know, that was the Rishi Rice roll where it was like main first target. And if he. I would presume he might kind of jump back into that role. But to your point, like, Xavier Worthy's electric, though they might try to find some other outlets for him. Do you think, do you think Pat's rank is too low, Erickson, on Rasheed Rice, or do you think it's probably just right?
- [43:46]
Andrew Erickson
No, I think that his, his rank is pretty spot on. I think that Rashi Rice is ranked very aggressively. When you just kind of take a step back, there's a lot of ways where this goes wrong. The guy's coming off a major knee injury. So during the ramp up to the season, is he in practicing in the Rashi Rice role? If he's limited, does that make a lot of sense for the Chiefs to build their offense around a guy who's coming off a major knee injury like that to me, seems like a little bit of a stretch when Xavier Worthy filled in so great. So is it Worthy in the Rashi race role to start the year and then they put Rice back into it to the second half of the year, but then Worthy takes on a field stretcher role. It's like at this point, especially how closely ranked those two guys are. I'm just gonna take the guy that was a first round pick, the guy that flashed most recently, and the guy that's not coming off major injury and then the other guy who's also not facing potential suspension, you know, risk or whatever. So although the suspension thing shouldn't affect Raji Rice this year, it's still just like another layer of is this guy like dialed in like, or is he a bonehead? Like, I don't really know. Just like so many ways the Rice thing doesn't work out versus the cost you have to pay for him at this ecr. It seems like it's kind of ignoring those. I want to get the discount because of all the red flags that I just miss mentioned. It's like, oh yeah, Round four. It's like, wait, wait, that doesn't make it. That doesn't add up to me. So yeah, I agree. Kind of being lower on Rashi Rice.
- [45:02]
Chris Welsh
There'S a lot of like buzz about Roma Dunes a that everyone we want to get back in. This is going to be Roma Dunes year. Erickson, you were lower on DJ Moore though. He comes in at ECR 39. Not that I don't say you're out. Like I would say that Fitz's Rasheed Rice rank is a little bit more exemplifying, like not like out but just like further back that you're probably not going to have shares. Yours isn't quite that on DJ Moore, but it's still significant enough to talk about where you are. Do you think it is Roma dunes a season and that's why DJ Moore is down?
- [45:32]
Andrew Erickson
I guess for me it's because the Bears are now under Ben Johnson. I don't know exactly. Oh, if just plug and play, copy and paste DJ Moore wide receiver 1 from the past year or the past years that have been. He's been in Chicago because it's a new offense. Right. We don't know who's going to play in the slot. Like that's going to change. We talked about at the beginning of the show what's going to move ADPs. Whoever Ben Johnson decides you are, my slot receiver is going to dramatically shift ADPs of these bears wide receivers. So I think it's somewhat telling that he gets hired as the head coach. First thing he does is draft two pass catchers in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. I think it's a little telling about the guys he already has in the building, but to the point of you saying that I'm not super, super low on DJ Moore is because he's still a consistent producer. Right. I find it hard to believe unless he gets injured or just totally falls out of favor with this new coaching staff that at the end of the day he's probably gonna end up being a wide receiver too. Now he's kind of being drafted in that range. So I think for me it's. I don't see the wide receiver 6 ceiling with him like we saw his first year with Justin Field. I don't think that's going to happen with all those pass catchers in Chicago with potentially Ben Johnson looking at some of those other guys. If anything, it's a indication and suggestion for those looking at my rankings that I think I'd rather just take a different Bears receiver at a cheaper price because I'm not so confident, at least with the market. That DJ Morris, oh, he's locked and loaded to be the number one guy. I would assume that that's probably the best bet to make, but not at this particular ecr. So again, I don't think he's going to be a bust by any means, but maybe underwhelm a little bit versus his ecr. That's kind of my feeling.
- [47:02]
Chris Welsh
Pat, what do you think about DJ Moore? Are you in the same general space or are you around ECR and DJ Moore?
- [47:07]
Pat Fitzmaurice
No, I'm right where Erickson is, 46th overall, same ranking. And like, I love DJ Moore way too much to be completely out on him. It's more of a gentle fade for me, and it's less about the too many mouths to feed thing than it is about DJ Moore and Caleb Williams never really clicking last year and DJ Moore's demeanor just being sort of strangely sour for a lot of the season. Just something about the vibe there that I. I don't love. And yeah, I'll have to get him in at least one draft, but I'm probably not going to have a lot of DJ Moore in 2025.
- [47:42]
Chris Welsh
All right, let's move to our next grouping here. We've got 46 through 60. We're going to start off with Alvin Camara coming in at 46. On the fantasy pros ECR, Chuba Hubbard, Joe Burrow, Cortland Sutton, James Connor, Devonta Smith, omarion Hampton. At 52, Sam Laporta, Xavier Worthy, who we've been talking about at 54, Dave Montgomery, DK Metcalf, Jameson Williams, Chris Olave, Chris Godwin and Aaron Jones. That ends out your 60. Interesting group and they're getting a little bit more on the rookie running back side. Get a Marion Hampton jumping up. But Pat, let's start with Chuba Hubbard. Chuba comes in at 47. We know there's no Brooks. We know there's just really nothing out there. They want to press him even more. He's RB18. You've got him a little bit higher. His ECR is 40. You have got him in the 30 range. Is Chuba Hubbard going to be a massive target for you knowing that? You know there's quite a decent separation between market value and your and your own analysis on him?
- [48:39]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think so Welsh, because I would be perfectly comfortable taking him early in the fourth and he's going more towards the late fourth. He was just really good last year, 4.8 yards per carry, 11th in missed tackles forced, eighth in yards after contact per attempt among running backs with at least 100 carries. And he was RB12 last year in fantasy points per game, half point PPR so the Panthers just gave Hubbard a four year $33 million deal. Even if you just look at the guaranteed money, about 16.5 million, I mean still a pretty lucrative deal for an NFL running back. Contrast that with the one year $2.75 million contract the Panthers just gave Rico Dowdle. So I'm not worried about Dowdle supplanting Chuba Hubbard. I'm not too worried about 4th round draft pick Trevor Etienne who never had a thousand yard season in college supplanting Chuba. I'm cautiously optimistic about the direction of the Panthers offense under Dave Canales and I really like the Carolina offensive line. So yeah, I'm in on Chuba Hubbard this year.
- [49:39]
Chris Welsh
Erickson, assuming that you're you're pretty on this, you're like in the relative range where you like the rank, maybe you're at ACR a little bit above. Are you comfortable with Chuba Hubbard as your RB1 on your team if he's coming at like a 4th ish round cost let's say, or even I guess top five. But if we say four, presumably you've probably got three wide receivers already or you've got a tight end and three and two wide receivers. Are you comfortable with him being your RB1 on a team like that or do you think it's more of a necessity that he needs to be your RB2 so you've gone two wide outs and two running backs.
- [50:16]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think I would probably prefer him as my RB2. I guess for me it's and I'm like slightly lower than consensus so I have him at 51 and he's 47 for me I do prefer a lot of the receivers going in that range so traditionally I like to follow a hero RB approach so hopefully I already have my bell cow running back by the by the time Chuba Hubbard's even like available to pick in rounds four round five and I I really gravitate more towards the wide receivers in this range or a potentially an elite tight end here because I I probably have more concerns about Rico down because I think Rico Dowdle again Chuba Hopper was really good last year so was Rico Doddle. Like that guy rushed for over a thousand yards and basically didn't play for a significant part of the first half of the season for the Cowboys until they're like, oh yeah, this guy's really good. Like let's use him on offense and eventually they put him in the spearheading the backfield. So I think that he is going to get some decent run here. So that's the difference between how I feel about Chuba Hubbard versus, you know, like a Chase Brown where I really don't think Chase Brown has big threats, where I, I do, I just disagree with Fitz where I do think Dowdle might present a bigger threat as the Panthers like they want to run the ball. Like I think they want to use both guys and make sure that Chip Hubbard can stay functioning throughout the entire season. So again, I have no qualms about where he's ranked versus the other running backs. But I guess I just gravitate towards the receivers a little bit more in his range.
- [51:37]
Chris Welsh
That'll feels like he could be annoying. He's super annoying. He's going to mess with stuff here. We did just talk about this guy decent amount. So Erickson, you can kind of blow through it a little bit or give more of analysis since we did talk more on the Rasheed Rice range. But one of the guys you're probably drafting instead of Chuba Hubbard is Xavier Worthy. You mentioned you like some wide receivers in this range and the reason I think it is important to talk about him a little bit more is you have him more than a full round higher than what his ECR comes in at at 54. You've got him at 4:41. So I mean that's significant enough. That would have been, I believe in the last. I know, I guess it would have been. Yeah, it would have been in like the last discussion we were having. So talk to me about Xavier Worthy and how much you need to have your shares of him.
- [52:22]
Andrew Erickson
I just really like Xavier Worthy. I liked him a lot coming out of Texas, a super young prospect with I think a really high ceiling. And I thought that man, could this be Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes like their new like desean Jackson type player. And that's not really what we saw during his rookie year, especially because we talked about it. He took over the Rashi Rice role but if anything he showed that he could be versatile and used in a lot of different ways. So I, I'm, I feel good about him just long term because let's say he doesn't get the Rashi Rice roll. Okay, well, he can still be used as a vertical threat. They still like to use him on. On Jet Sweeps. We still don't really know what this backfield is going to look like. Is it going to be Pacheco? Is he going to be healthy? Are they going to use Prashard Smith? What about Kareem hunt? Rushing for 3 yards of carry in a cloud of dust. So there's a lot of question marks about this offense, but you know who there's not really a big question mark about? Is Xavier Worthy. Like, that's the guy who blew up in the second half of the year. He four catches or more in 10 straight games. Six plus in seven straight games, hit over 40 receiving yards in all those. All those contests, 12 total touchdowns, nine receiving, three rushing. From week 11 onward, two yards per outrun, 14.6 fantasy points per game. And that's better. That 14.6 mark is better than Rashid Rice's production from the first, the second half of his rookie year into the start of the 2024 season, where he was really effective for the first three weeks before his knee injury. So I just think that Worthy is kind of just being undervalued a little bit. I get that he's a smaller wide receiver, doesn't really profile as an alpha, but he's got Mahomes trust, he's got Andy Reid's trust, and I think that bodes well for him and his future production. So look again, between Worthy and Rice. I'm on the Worthy side here and I know that ECR doesn't necessarily agree with that, but that's just kind of how I see the Chiefs receiver room.
- [53:59]
Chris Welsh
I want to get your rank on Worthy, Pat, because we hadn't talked about that yet. But let me ask you this question, and it may be the other side of how I'm pushing it. Erickson says 41 overall, unworthy. If we compare that to ECR, this wide receiver is lower. 45. Marvin Harrison Jr. Who would you rather, worthy or Marvin Harrison Jr. And what's your rank on worthy?
- [54:17]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Marvin Harrison Jr. And I have Worthy. So like full fade on Rice. For me. I've got him at 58 overall, which is like more than a round past ECR. Worthy I have at 55. So I'm like one higher than ECR. You know, like I would rather have Worthy than Rasheed Rice. But it's just, I don't know. I mean, they, they drafted Jalen Royals, who a lot of people like, they still have Hollywood Brown kicking Around they have Travis Kelce. Like it's just messy. And remember early last season when Worthy made the couple of big plays in the opener against the Ravens on, on the third, you know, season debut Thursday night opener and we thought like okay, this is it. Wheels up for Xavier Worthy then for like the first half of the season it's like okay, where is this guy? And then he finally kicked it in a high gear at the end of the season. I guess it's easy to think that he's going to continue to produce like he did in the back half of the season, but I don't know, I just, I worry that it's going to be pretty messy in Kansas City with some of the pass catchers this year.
- [55:14]
Chris Welsh
Slight follow up. Erickson, Harrison or Worthy.
- [55:17]
Andrew Erickson
I need to check, I need to consult the ranks because I don't want to be lying. So what did your gut tell you.
- [55:22]
Chris Welsh
Before you looked at the rank? What's your gut?
- [55:23]
Andrew Erickson
It's probably going to be, it's probably Worthy, but it's not actually it is. Marvin Harrison Jr. They're back to back though. They're hand holding 18 to 19.
- [55:31]
Chris Welsh
Okay, that's what I wanted to see. Pat, let's go to this running back one. I think this is interesting because you know, there's a lot of talk about Jordan Mason and Minnesota, but Aaron Jones comes in at ECR 30 and you've got him hiring, you've got him at 50. So is it a touchdown equity thing that keeps him there? Is it all about nothing with Jordan Mason coming in? Talk to us about Aaron Jones and your higher rank of him in ecr.
- [55:55]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I put my money where my mouth is Welsh. I just drafted Aaron Jones in a slow draft for my first redraft league of the year and like I just think he's a boring but very good value at his end of the fifth round. ECR. Yes, Jones is 30 now, so there's some risk. But he just cranked out another 1100 yard rushing season and he's played all 17 games in two of the last three years. So Jones adds some value as a pass catcher. He's had 50 plus receptions in three of the last four years and it might have been four or four if he had missed six games in 2023. The Vikings upgraded their offensive line in the off season and Kevin o' Connell is a great play caller. So I think there's a lot to like here. But you know, Jones is older and maybe people are a little bored with him. So I think he's Going to be a value in drafts.
- [56:42]
Chris Welsh
Erickson, are you in agreement here? Because I think you're a Jordan Mason guy, if I remember correctly, and he's pretty interesting. As far as someone you're going to want to pick up this year, is it enough that you're going to push Aaron Jones up in ecr? Where do you stand on this?
- [56:55]
Andrew Erickson
So I have him right at ECR at 60 overall, so I have no problem with where he's being ranked. I'm definitely open to drafting Aaron Jones. It just for me, it's like, would you rather take Aaron Jones at 60 or Jordan Mason at 120? And I'm like, I'd rather just take Jordan Mason at 120 because I. I like both guys in terms of the scenarios, but just, I just like the value more with Jordan Mason because I think that he could be the hammer at the goal line. And if that puts him over the top scoring touchdowns, if his Viking offense is really effective with the revamped offensive line, then I think Jordan Mason could really benefit. Aaron Jones just so bad in the red zone last year. Oh, my God. I'm still losing money on all this betting. Pro show betting on Aaron Jones to score a touchdown.
- [57:35]
Chris Welsh
Like, he's still losing. Go back. It's a credit I do.
- [57:39]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm. I'm not a big handcuff guy, but I do think Jordan Mason is like the most essential handcuff of the 2025 season.
- [57:45]
Chris Welsh
It's probably a good take. Final one in this range. This is a wide receiver, Erickson, that you seem pretty out on, especially compared to ecr. This might be the biggest differential, at least that we've talked about. Yeah, there's over 20, 20 spots lower. You have Devontae Smith versus ECR. He's at 52. You've got him in the mid-70s. So why do you hate Devonta Smith?
- [58:07]
Andrew Erickson
I don't hate Devontae Smith, to be clear. It's just a matter of how he scores his fantasy points, and he only scores fantasy points when someone else is injured. This happens every single year. And every single year, point out, like guys, he doesn't score fantasy points unless someone gets hurt. And then, of course, somebody always ends up getting hurt. To my point, eight games with A.J. brown and Dallas Goddard, including the postseason last year, because again, as we know, those guys both got injured last year at different points. He averaged 8.3 points per game. That was wide receiver 63. Okay, but the other half of the season, right, the nine games that somebody was not in the lineup 14.7 points per game wide receiver eight so. So clearly there is a reason why he is ranked where he is. He's in, he's kind of middling this territory. But I just don't think devonte Smith has that ceiling unless someone gets hurt, which has happened obviously in the past. But it's not something that I like going into my draft knowing, okay, I'm draft Devonta Smith and then this guy's gonna get hurt and then I'm gonna feel good about playing him. I would rather just draft someone that doesn't necessarily need that injury, you know, out to access their potential ceiling. So for me it's like I don't think devonte Smith is gonna like bury me if I don't take him. So that's why I have him ranked a little bit lower. Just because I know that when you can actually play him it's dependent on his teammates being available and not necessarily him. And also too like the constraints of the Eagles offense, don't get me wrong because I think he's a really good like real life player and if he was in another offense like he could thrive. But the Eagles, I just, I just don't like his upside unless again like I pointed out, someone's got to get hurt.
- [59:33]
Chris Welsh
It's actually 51. It was on our list too. I was saying 52. That was it moved in a day. Fitzy Jameson Williams or Devonte Smith? Williams comes in at 57. ECR has Smith higher. But what say you?
- [59:46]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I am looking at this now. Well, Welsh, I think I have DeVontae Smith higher and yes, that is in fact the case by a pretty good amount actually like more than around for me. I just like, I think devonte Smith, I can't argue with Erickson's categorization of it where he has done his best work when someone else has been hurt. But he is one of the best route runners in the game. He's averaged between 11.7 and 12.7 half point PPR fantasy points per game in each of the last three years and he had a pretty good season on a per game basis last year with the Eagles having this ridiculously run heavy offense, the run heaviest offense in the league. I don't think they can get any more run heavy than they were last year. If they get more pass heavy that works to DeVontae Smith's benefit. So I just, I think he's a really good player and I want to bet on talent.
- [60:38]
Chris Welsh
Eagles hold my beer. It's going to be just nothing but Running Smith is going to turn into a running back. That's. That's where it's going to go. All right, we got a final one here. Let's look at the final board. This is 61 through 75. It kicks off with Baker Mayfield coming in. By the way, QB6 on ECR, Tony Pollard, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter. Wide receiver 31, Jalen Waddle, TJ Hawkinson, Trayvon Henderson. At RB24, Patrick Mahomes, RJ Harvey, Quinton Junkins. We got Ted McMillan, Jerry Judy, Isaiah Pacheco, DeAndre Swift, and George Pickens. Since we are at the end of the show, there's some incredibly fun names out of this list. I'm going to present you guys with your choice or I'm going to let you guys present your choice is a better way to say it. Pick anybody out of this list. I won't even set up off of the sheet. And Pat, let's start with you. Who do you want to pick out of this range that you were either like way higher on or way lower on versus ecr?
- [61:31]
Pat Fitzmaurice
TJ Hawkinson. What are we doing with Hawkinson as a sixth rounder in ecr? Like the Vikings have one of the two or three best wide receiver combos in the league with Justin Jefferson and the vastly underrated Jordan Addison. You know, I'm not worried about JJ McCarthy, but the fact is he's never taken an NFL snap in a regular season game yet. Like, Hawkinson's a good player, but he had major knee surgery two years ago and he's never had more than six touchdowns in any NFL season. I just cannot get on board with a sixth round ECR for him. I'd rather just wait like several rounds later and get the same level of production, if not better from Zach Ertz.
- [62:08]
Chris Welsh
Overall rankings really start to open up. I also, I think you can do a whole episode on like how you approach and really like care about overall rankings. Whether I've done this conversation in baseball ranking talks, football kind of has the same thing. There is a point where you just kind of stop caring about what an overall is in positional ranks become more important so we can take a little less time because this opens up so much. But there are some fascinating names on this list. Ericsson. With so many rookies, there's some wide receivers that pop. There's a lot of different directions that you can go, but higher or lower. What's one player you want to highlight out of this 60 to 75 overall rank?
- [62:46]
Andrew Erickson
So I'm sticking with the the Vikings here and so I'm going to go with the other side, Jordan Addison. So I should probably also move teacher Hawkinson down, but I just don't want to be overly confident that JJ McCarthy is going to come in and just do exactly what Sam Darnold did. Like I get that there is an upside case with him that he can do that, but I don't want it to be just what I'm drafting a player to do. I need there to be some leeway in case he doesn't fire away. What if again, we just talked about the running backs. What if they like to run the ball a little bit more as they get their young quarterback accumulated, getting snaps under center, getting him back in the rhythm of playing NFL football because he's been out the entire year. So that's my concern with any Vikings, even Justin Jefferson to an extent where it's like it's a brand new quarterback. Like we're just gonna do it all again. Like it's hard for these guys to just every single year overcome potential quarterback issues. So for me, Jordan Addison, especially last year again you saw sub 20 target share when Hawkinson came back weeks one through eight he had a 17 target share, averaging under nine fantasy points per game. He scored eight touchdowns from week nine onward. So he had a lot of touchdown production. What if they're running the ball more on the red zone? What if JJ McCarthy doesn't throw as many touchdowns as Sam Donald did a year ago? And then to add another point with Addison, he also might get suspended this year. Like don't forget about that. Like he has an issue off the field where it didn't get happened, it didn't happen last year. But he could face a one to three game suspension because of the DUI thing that ended up happening to him last off season. So these are things I'm trying to point out. Remember it's like yes, Jefferson, okay, but the other two guys, I just would rather have someone else take them. So I'm going to Hawkinson down and I'm probably out on Jordan Addison too.
- [64:20]
Chris Welsh
What do the overall ranks have right and what do they have wrong? You can drop it in the comments below if you are on the YouTube of course you can check us out if you're listening on the podcast side YouTube.com fantasy pros, we want to hear from you. What are these guys? Especially what do these guys get right? Don't be hating but you're probably going to anyways. But what do we get right? What did we get wrong? It's never too early for ranks. That's why you can go to fantasypros.com rankings, check all the different formats. You can see how it moves the best ranking, the worst ranking, the average different. There's so much really cool, fun information and then you can even see where each analyst is. I think there's already like 50 plus rankers that are on there, so ECR is a really, really good representation of some of the early ranks. Thank you guys so much for hanging out with us. Great discussion on the overall ranks I.e. andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice. I'm Chris Welsh and we will talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros. Bye friends.
- [65:15]
Andrew Erickson
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
- [65:18]
Chris Welsh
If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
- [65:33]
Andrew Erickson
Channel at YouTube.com fantasypros AI is redefining what's possible for your business with more unique challenges to solve and higher stakes than ever, Microsoft helps you stay ahead. Our trustworthy AI tools and guidance can empower leaders like you to drive greater impact. And with Azure's simplified platform management, we're helping businesses go further, faster, unlocking up to 150% improved output. Whatever challenge comes next, let Microsoft help you keep pushing forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com challengers this.
- [66:27]
Pat Fitzmaurice
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- [67:27]
Andrew Erickson
I'm Clayton English.
- [67:28]
Chris Welsh
I'm Greg Lodd. And this is season two of the War on Drugs podcast.
- [67:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Last year, a lot of the problems of this year, a lot of the biggest names in music and sports, this.
- [67:38]
Chris Welsh
Kind of star studded a little bit, man.
- [67:40]
Pat Fitzmaurice
We met them at their homes, we.
- [67:42]
Chris Welsh
Met them at the recording studios. Stories matter, and it brings a face to it. It makes it real.
- [67:47]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It really does. It makes it real.
- [67:49]
Andrew Erickson
Listen to new episodes of the War on Drugs podcast. Season two on the iHeartRadio app, Apple.
- [67:54]
Chris Welsh
Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. You're listening to an iHeart podcast.