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The Herd with Colin Cowherd
FantasyPros - Are You DRAFTING Or PASSING on These Players in 2025? (Ep. 1597)
01:02:33
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- [00:00]
Ryan Wormley
This is an iHeart podcast. AI is redefining what's possible for your business. With more unique challenges to solve and higher stakes than ever, Microsoft helps you stay ahead. Our trustworthy AI tools and guidance can empower leaders like you to drive greater impact. And with Azure's simplified platform management, we're helping businesses go further, faster, unlocking up to 150% improved output. Whatever challenge comes next, let Microsoft help you keep pushing forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com challengers. Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I'm Ryan Wormley, joined today by Andrew Erickson and by Pat Fitzmaurice. Fellows, we're talking some draft or pass on certain players for 2025 drafts. We put together some names that our producer John put together and they are intended to be based on your guys rankings. Names that we think you will maybe disagree with each other on. You don't have to force it if you don't disagree with each other. But we tried to pick these names ahead of time knowing that you guys at least do differentiate in how you're ranking them. Currently we're going to be going based off our half PPR rankings. So we'll give everybody kind of the overall consensus ranking in ECR and then the guys will kind of share what they think about this player and if at this cost they are drafting or passing on these guys. Fitz, I am glad you made the time because you it sounds like have had quite a day.
- [01:24]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yes, new furnace, new air conditioner and you know getting those things changed over on a 98 degree and degree day in Chicago. Met no AC for a big chunk of the day and I'm a guy who likes his ac. So yeah, it's been a long hot day but you know, and now I'm gonna get heated up arguing with Erickson about some of these players. He's totally wrong about what a segue.
- [01:48]
Ryan Wormley
I was gonna say it's been a hot day so I'm expecting some hot takes from Fitz here as we get into to all different players. Erickson, you got a move coming up soon yourself. You were just telling me about that before the show.
- [01:59]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, we closed on the wife and I closed on our house last week so very excited about that. Also celebrated our one year anniversary. So very excited. Next steps. Yeah, next month it's going to be moving into a new house. I'm going to have a whole new background set up so it should be a lot of fun. And regards to the heat, I am now currently on my third shirt of today.
- [02:21]
Ryan Wormley
We we the last several days have been like 100 degrees out here in Denver. Today it was in the low 60s for at least in the morning when I was outside. So it was very surpr. I was wearing a sweatshirt walking my dog this morning, which was literally yesterday. I was like I was doing some weeding and I couldn't go for about more than 15 minutes and I was just too hot and too drenched in sweat. So very, very sudden turnaround here in Denver. That's enough complaining about the weather. Let's dive into draft or Pass. Quick reminder for everybody, like I said, we're going to be referencing the half EPR rankings. You you can find those rankings and all of our consensus 2025 rankings and tiers@ fantasypros.com rankings. You can also find Ericsson's rankings and Fitz's rankings there. If you want to look at where they have these guys individually, let's start here at the top. We're going to kind of work our way down through the draft. So we'll start with some of the early round guys, then some mid rounds, then a handful of kind of later round picks. Again I'm going to kind of present the player. You guys will tell me if you're going to draft or pass here on this player at their cost. We'll start off with Saquon Barkley who obviously is coming off a league winning season. He was, you know, the best or second best. Ian him or Jamar Chase player in fantasy last year, just a remarkable 2000 rushing yard season his first year in Philadelphia. Right now he is third overall in half PPR and that is RB2 actually behind Bijan Robinson who a lot of folks are projecting to surpass him this year. But third overall player Fitzgerald, is that a player you are drafting or passing at his cost?
- [03:50]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I have done one draft for a redraft league and I did in fact end up with Saquon Barkley in that league, getting him fourth overall I believe. And I understand the point Erickson is probably going to make here, which is that it's kind of terrifying that Saquon had 482 touches last season when you include playoff games. And the pass catching upside isn't what it used to be for saquon. He had 33 catches last year, his lowest reception total in any full season since he came into the league. Any, any full non injured season that is. But Saquon's a special player and he has pretty much the perfect ecosystem in Philadelphia. An outstanding offensive line, a winning team with an excellent young defense that's going to give the Eagles a lot of run friendly game scripts. Yeah, Saquon could break down after a season of such heavy usage, but it's hard to envision a scenario where Saquon is healthy but turning in unsatisfactory numbers. Like if he's healthy he's probably going to be excellent again and maybe not as good as last year, but still a high end RB one. And I don't know how to quantify what we perceive to be a greater injury risk because of the heavy workload last year.
- [05:08]
Ryan Wormley
So Eric, so based on your ranking, I'm assuming that this will be a pass for you and I'm wondering if Fitz's point about if he is healthy it's hard to see him falling off. Do you see it as strictly hedging against injury and just an ability to stay healthy over the whole season or do you think that even if he is healthy for the whole year that there's still a chance for not just some regression? Because I think everybody thinks that, but maybe significant regression.
- [05:34]
Andrew Erickson
I mean I think that he's definitely due for significant amount of regression from a production standpoint. Fact that he doesn't catch as many passes that we saw what he did in New York a point that or a stat that I looked at that I thought was actually crazy. When you look at what he did his rookie year, he actually scored more fantasy points his rookie year than he did this past year because of the reception totals that he could have put up monster numbers as in the passing game as a rookie. He did not do that in Philadelphia and I don't think that's going to happen with the way that offense operates with Jalen Hurts as the quarterback with all those other weapons between Smith, A.J. brown and and Dallas Goddard. So I think that the receptions matter a ton. It's not that he's not he's very capable of catching passes. They don't just use him that way in the offense. So that's that's part of it. Honestly I was definitely sweating out the tush push type of ruling. If that had been banned I could have seen okay well Bennett Barkley is going to score 20 plus touchdowns like that would that could have been in his range of outcomes where okay well Jalen Hurts still now going to be locked and loaded for another 15 rushing touchdown season. So I think those are concerns about Saquon Barkley when it comes to if he is healthy and on the field. But again my main thesis of the bet is guys that are coming off this type of workload, it just doesn't work out for them. I can dive a little bit deeper into it. I know that it's kind of been thrown out. I don't know if you guys are interested.
- [06:55]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, I'm definitely interested. We actually have. I'm doing one of our Microsoft challengers reads later in this episode, talking about a player facing challenges. And I'm actually going to be talking about Saquon overcoming some of this history of players who have had this kind of workload. So I think you should share it.
- [07:11]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah. So only two running backs finished RB1 the following year after leaving the NFL and touches since 2013. Of the last 12 running backs with at least 400 or more touches the previous season, only one of those running backs was a top five fantasy running back. The next year, running backs 27 or older in the NFL that led the NFL in touches. Five of them have done it. Zero top five finishes the following season. So for me, it's following a process. I trust this process. It worked out last year with Christian McCaffrey. I was making the same claims for Christian McCaffrey again. Also a very special player, also in a great offensive environment, also an older running back, and it worked out. And he was a player that got injured and ended up not being worth the number one overall pick. And the other thing too is because you have to take Barkley inside the top five. I mean, if you take Barkley now I know that he's ranked below ecr, but you know I like Bijan more than Barkley. I'd rather have Gibbs than say if you take sacral market, that means you can't draft Jameer Gibbs. I want to draft these running backs in their uber prime along with some of these round one wide receivers. CD Lamb, he's got Dak Prescott back. Last time we saw that combination CD Lamb was wide receiver one Justin Jefferson, one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. So I think that the opportunity cost for Barkley to get him in betting on that, I think even the highest Barkley stands would say he probably won't be as good as he was last year. So I just don't see the, I don't want to say the upside. Obviously the upside is there, but I just don't like the case this year for Saquon Markley versus some of the other guys at the top of the board.
- [08:42]
Ryan Wormley
So Fitz, before we move off of Saquon, let's concede just for the sake of argument that he should be RB2, which is where you have him specifically amongst his position. You know, I think it's a very valid stance to take, obviously. Do you at least see the case for maybe just going with a receiver in that spot like CD Lamb? I was just putting my together my rankings together earlier today and I had Lamb third and like almost wanted to try and make the case for him to go higher because of what Erickson just said the last time we saw those guys healthy together. So do you see maybe a reason even if you want to keep Saquon as RB2 just to go in a different position direction, like specifically wide receiver.
- [09:18]
Pat Fitzmaurice
If you're in a league where you have to start three receivers every week? Absolutely. If you're in a receiver where you only have to start two, then I am taking Saquon over every wide receiver except for possibly Jamar Chase.
- [09:31]
Ryan Wormley
All right, so let's go now to a tight end. Actually, Trey McBride, a player I'm very excited about this year. He is ranked 22nd overall in ECR. That is tight end two. Erickson, let's start with you this time.
- [09:45]
Andrew Erickson
So with McBride, I'm in line with consensus where I have him. So as the tight end two as 22nd overall. But I don't think that he's someone that I'm going out of my way to draft necessarily. And that's not because of McBride the player. It's because from a strategic standpoint, I just like a lot of these late round tight end options. That's kind of the point for me with McBride is do I think he can pay off a top 24 ADP? I think so, especially with hopefully he can finally find the end zone at some point. And they're not just jamming targets to Marvin Harrison Jr. In the end zone, as I know too well for losing so much Money on Trey McBride anytime touchdowns last season as listeners of the show are too familiar with. But I just think there's so many late run options that I like at cost. Tucker Craft, Evan Ingram, David and Joku. So for me, don't hate the player McBride, don't hate the ADP, but I like the tight end strategy of waiting at the position. So he's going to be a pass for me.
- [10:44]
Ryan Wormley
So he's a pass. Even though he's more aligned with your rankings fits. Are you also passing because your rankings have him a bit lower?
- [10:50]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I am passing and I'm not here to rip McBride. He's clearly one of the best tight ends in the league. 11111 catches last year, 1146 yards average, 2.12 yards per outrun, which is really impressive. But I'm not spending a second round pick on Trey McBride and he's not my tight end too. As you said Worm, I've, I've got bowers tight end one, KD tight end two and like McBride, Kittle is coming off an 1100 yard season. But Kittle averaged a freaky 2.62 yards per out run last season and Kittle actually scores touchdowns. And look, I, I know McBride is due for some better touchdown luck. Wouldn't shock me if he had seven or eight this year. But we also have to consider the possibility that McBride is never going to be a prolific touchdown scorer. He's had six touchdowns in 49 NFL games and never scored more than four touchdowns in any of his college seasons at Colorado State. The other thing like if, if you think Marvin Harrison Jr. Is going to have a better year two than he had in year one and there are some things about his usage that were kind of funky last year and hopefully the Cardinals are trying to address. I'm sure they know that they have to get this top five draft pick more integrated into the offense, used more optimally. And if, if you think Marvin Harrison Jr. Is going to have a much better year in year two than he had as a rookie, you'd think that would cut into Trey McBride's target load. So they're just a lot of things that worry me here and I just don't think Trey McBride is worth a second round pick.
- [12:31]
Ryan Wormley
I am very excited about Trey McBride this year. It I feel like there are just enough players that I like better than him that I agree that I don't want to take him in the second, but I would be very happy to take him in with an early third pick if I'm getting an elite player in the first round, which I would presumably be getting. If I'm having an early third because I'm picking early in the first, then just take a player I really like at whatever the other position is that I didn't take in the first round, wide receiver, running back, and then McBride in the third. I'm really happy with that. So I think this is an appropriate ranking, you know, it range at the very least, even if you'd be a couple spots lower for me. But I would much prefer to get him like more of an early third than a late second, which might not be doable in a lot of cases, but I think there are just enough players in that back end of the second round range that I'm Just really excited about that. I don't imagine I'll be taking McBride in many leagues where he's going in the second round. So I think I'm kind of making it a consensus opinion here to pass at 22nd overall on Trey McBride. And some of that, like Erickson said, is positionally.
- [13:34]
Andrew Erickson
D Bro's not gonna be happy about that.
- [13:37]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, no. Well. But DBRO is really high on George Kittle, too, right? Does he have McBride higher than Kittle or does he have him.
- [13:43]
Andrew Erickson
Yes. Bowers about behind them both, I believe.
- [13:45]
Ryan Wormley
Oh, okay. It's Bowers that is making.
- [13:47]
Andrew Erickson
We actually all three of us have three different Titan. I'm the one that's the chalky. I'm the Chalky guy. I'm just following the ECR between Bowers, McBride, Kittle. But yeah, guys are that they're coming with a hot heat.
- [14:00]
Ryan Wormley
I'm looking here. I would definitely be along the line of Eric Said with Bowers with bride Kittle. Although I really quite like all three this year.
- [14:06]
Andrew Erickson
Well, I think it's clear that there is a top three tier that seems like it's. That's consensus now. If you want to mix and match them, I think that that's okay, especially when you're playing the value game. Like, Kittle's the cheapest. So it makes sense. If you want to get the elite tight end, just wait for George Kittle. I know we're not talking about him specifically, but, like, he's the guy in Bowers you have to look at when you're, like, weighing the Options machine. Well, McBride, like, here's an example. Like, do you want Trey McBride and Jonathan Taylor or Brock Bowers and Bree Hall? Like, those are like combos. You'd have to compare. So, yeah, yeah.
- [14:40]
Ryan Wormley
This month, if you want a chance to win a signed George Pickens Steelers jersey for free, courtesy of our friends@pristine auction.com. all you have to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below on any video, and that is it. We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So make sure to turn on those notifications so you can know when new videos are up and to claim your prize. Get that now, vintage Steelers George Pickens jersey. Let's go to a receiver here for draft or pass. Mike Evans. He's 34th overall in ECR. That is wide receiver 16. Fitz, I'll start with you here.
- [15:15]
Pat Fitzmaurice
As my buddy Scott Panowski of Yahoo says, when has anyone ever drafted Mike Evans and regretted it? So I think wide receiver 16, 34th overall is pretty spot on. I think I have Evans. Wide receiver 15, 34th overall. I'm not that worried about age like Evans turns 32 in August. I guess the one thing that makes me slightly nervous is that when Chris Godwin was balling out early last season, Evans was actually below a thousand yard pace. He averaged 51.7 yards over his first six games and he had seven or fewer targets in five of those six games. Then came that fateful game against the Ravens when Evan hurt his hamstring. Godwin had that gruesome ankle injury when Evans came back in week 12 and there was no Godwin around. Evans averaged 6.9 catches and 95.6 yards a game over his last seven games. So I just, I wonder if it might be a struggle for Evans to give us a 12th straight thousand yard season with Godwin back from the injury and now first rounder a mechag buka possibly poaching some targets. But I don't know. I would still be more inclined to bet the over on a thousand yards than the under for Mike Evans and good chance he gives us double digit touchdowns for what, the fifth, fifth season out of six. Like the guy's pretty bankable.
- [16:39]
Ryan Wormley
I know that hall of Famers kind of play by a different set of rules and yes, I do think Mike Evans is a Hall of Famer, but like we've seen it so many times that when it goes, it does go fast and you know, guy into his 30s. I, I'm a little concerned, Erickson, about just the new play caller. Although Tampa has done a really good job of consistently getting quality new offensive coordinators in there as their guys get hired away. So maybe they've done it again. But you know, it is in the back of my mind that it's now, you know, a new player play caller there. So Mike Evans for you again, 34th overall wide receiver 16. How does that look to you?
- [17:13]
Andrew Erickson
I just think he's a really solid fantasy wide receiver too. I think that's what he's going to be. I don't think that he's going to be a fantasy locked in number one, a top 12 guy. But when the Buccaneers meet in training camp, when they go over their goals, number one is let's win the division. Number two, Mike Evans. A thousand yards. It's just on everybody's narrative that they want to get this guy his amount of touches and the amount of yardage so he can continue this endless or his, his streak, his historic streak. So I understand that yes his production did fall off or he was not as great during the beginning season with Godwin, but it was still pretty good. It was around that wide receiver to production under 12 fantasy points per game. And yes, Evans has moments where he misses gains with his hamstring injury or he just has these random three target games against Also you have to remember Marshall Lattimore is gone from the division so that's a big win for these Saints matchups with Mike Evans. So we don't have to fade Mike Evans anymore on these weekly Marshawn Lattimore whatever matchup they're on now. So I think that Evans is a great pick in this round. I think that he's pretty safe. I get the age concerns but I mean he was still really efficient last year. I think he posted career high or he did post career high in yards per route run. So I don't think that his there's nothing about his game that's saying hey, this guy's clearly hit a cliff. Amika Buka yeah, we're excited about he's still a rookie wide receiver. Mike Evans has shown he can produce with anyone else in his office as good as Chris Godwin has been at times. Mike, if it's still reproduced and when push comes to shove, you know Evans can drop 30 points at any point in any game where he can win you a week. So even though he has a couple duds here and there, I think the weekly upside he can deliver. Especially with Baker Mayfield, his Buccaneers defense still has a lot of holes. I think Mike Evans is solid where he's going.
- [18:55]
Ryan Wormley
Let's go to Chuba Hubbard here. This is somebody that we just mentioned, D RO earlier. D RO was tweeting earlier today that he is moving Chuba Hubbard down in his rankings. And Erickson, do you agree with DBRO that Hubbard is currently too high 46th overall RB18 or would you go against DBRA?
- [19:13]
Andrew Erickson
D. RO must have been looking at my, my cheat sheet figuring out that I'm, I'm fading. Chuba Hubbard Yes, I am lower on Chuba Hubbard than the consensus. I think that it's really not a slight on him either. I think that he was really great last year, but I also think that Rico Dadle was really great last year. Dabble had over 1300 total yards, 274 touches and the amount of volume that he saw last year was the most added to any other backfield this season. So he was averaging around 17 touches per game compared to Chuba harbor who was around 19 touches per game. So I think Rico Dowdle is a very capable running back. He showed that by winning out the running back job in Dallas despite the coaches being very much against giving him a role. It took forever for him. He had a breakout game against Pittsburgh Steelers early in the season, week five, and then they immediately go back to a committee. So he forced the coach's hand and he did all of this basically without Dak Prescott as the Dallas Cowboys quarterback. He rushed for over a thousand yards last year when he was playing with backup quarterbacks in the Dallas Cowboys offense. So I think that we're going to see more of a 1A 1B situation between Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle because I think both guys are very capable running backs. But we also saw Hubbard break down at the end of last year and the minute that Jonathan Brooks, the rookie, when he came back healthy, he immediately took on a sizable role in the offense for the one game he was healthy, took away targets from Chuba Hubbard. So I think that Dowdle showed last year that he deserves touches and opportunities. I think he's going to get them and it's going to be a more of a 1A 1B. I don't think Harbor's going to get near the amount of work that he saw last year. And for those reasons, I'm going to be lower on him. I think I'd rather just have Dowdle at his price compared to Har at his price.
- [20:53]
Ryan Wormley
I think I'm. I'm about even with where Hubbard is in terms of ecr. I don't feel like he's too high or too low. Part of it is just some of the players around him. I have a hard time kind of moving some of them ahead of him or below him. Erickson obviously thinks this is too high. Fitz, what do you think? 46th overall RB18.
- [21:10]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think Erickson is never going to have any sort of career as an investigator because he is overlooking the principal rule. Follow the money. The Panthers told us how they feel about their running back situation with the contracts they handed out. They gave chuba Hubbard a four year, $33 million deal with about 16 and a half million guaranteed. Rico Dowdle got a one year deal, 2.75 million. So Hubbard's going to be the guy to start the season. And it's possible Chuba Hubbard could stink. Enrico Dowdle could be really good and they change horses at some point, but no reason to think Hubbard's gonna stink. He was really good last year. 4.8 yards per carry, ranked eighth in yards after contact Per attempt among running backs with at least 100 carries. Chuba was 11th among running backs and missed tackles. Forest caught 43 passes RB12 in fantasy points per game and half point PPR. So, man, even with the signing of Dowdle and the drafting of Trevor etn, I'm not that worried about Chuba's job security. And there's a reason to be optimistic about the trajectory of the Carolina offense, which was pretty good down the stretch in the first year with Dave Canales as head coach. And Carolina's got a good offensive line. PFF had the Panthers ranked seventh in run blocking grade last season. So I'm totally on board with Hubbard at that price.
- [22:33]
Ryan Wormley
Erickson, you said, unless I'm misremembering or misheard you, that you thought, you thought it could be a 1A 1B situation. What kind of touch breakdown is that for you? Is that like 55, 45? Is it close to 50, 50? Or do you think it could be more like 60, 40 or more disparity, 15, 10, whatever.
- [22:53]
Andrew Erickson
Whatever that would accumulate to be. So I can't do, I can't do the math. You can't put me on the spot like this. So for every 15 tests, you.
- [23:00]
Ryan Wormley
That would be 64.
- [23:02]
Andrew Erickson
Okay, 64. Yeah, that, that's, that's what I think is, is realistic. I think Dowdle, I mean Fitz did a great job of listing off like how good Hubbard was last year. And I want to give him his credit, but both of these guys rushed for a thousand yards last year. Both them average over 4, 4.6 yards per carry. Both of them were top 24 running backs by PFF. They were both really good. So I just think that the coaching staff recognizes that Dowdle is a very capable running back. And to keep Hubbard healthy now that they've invested in him, maybe they don't want to run him into the ground because we paid this guy. So let's keep him fresh. And I think last year they tried to do that at times, but everybody kept getting injured. Jonathan Brooks injured, Miles Anders injured. So I think that for those reasons, again, I think that that was the better value where he's going because I think that he could see a decent amount of work in this backfield. And looking at other running backs that go in this range, I like James Connor more than Chuba Hubbard. He goes in a very similar range to Chuba Hubbard. And I think that he has a bigger gap on the RB1 role in Arizona vs. Chuba Hubbard compared to Rico Dowd because Trey Benson, again, super exciting prospect, but I think Benson really needs an injury to get unlocked in Arizona, whereas Rico Dowdle. I don't think that he's based solely on an injury happening now. Obviously if an injury happens, I think he'd be a really high end handcuff at worst. But I think that he might be able to be a running back kind OF or an RB2 with benefits or something along those lines.
- [24:27]
Ryan Wormley
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- [25:44]
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- [26:14]
Ryan Wormley
All right guys, let's shift into more of the mid round section here. We'll start with Jameson Williams. He's 53rd overall wide receiver, 26 a lot of hype coming from Detroit about him as a major breakout potential this year. Fitz, let's start with you. This time.
- [26:30]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm going to pass on him at wide receiver 26 and as a fifth round pick at 53 overall, a little too rich for me. I have him ranked wide receiver 31. JMO is a really talented dude with a lot of big play potential but it's going to be kind of a bumpy ride because he is not a high volume guy. He averaged 6.1 targets a game last year. Then factor in the departure of Ben Johnson along with the likelihood that Jared Goff's career high touchdown rate from last year comes down and you know Goff is maybe closer to 30 touchdown passes than the 37 he had last year. So I just, I'm not quite on board with Jameson at that price. I like him better in best ball than in managed leagues. You know if you can get him as as your wide receiver three or something I'm okay with that. But I don't know, this just seems a bit too rich.
- [27:24]
Ryan Wormley
Erickson, I want to hear what you think about Jameson Williams at 53rd overall wide receiver 26 but I'm also curious if you agree with Fitz that you'd rather have him in best ball as opposed to redraft or are you just.
- [27:34]
Andrew Erickson
Interested regardless Interested regardless in Jameson blame so I'm going to be drafting him. I just think that this is the year that it's going to be all gas and no breaks for Jameson. The fact that they're talking about him as a breakout candidate after what he did last year where I wasn't high enough on Jameson I was kind of fed up the suspensions and the injury a prospect. I was really high on coming out of Alabama and just never lived up to the draft capital. He finally did that last year and that was despite him getting suspended again for doing for doing non football related activities. So I think with Williams he's just a really exciting player. Week 10 onward he was the wide receiver 10 and fantasy points per game. We saw him start to really eat into Amman Ross St. Brown's Target share weeks 12 through 18 they had a very similar target share. Now it's still in favor of the lion slot receiver because of a 18 target game that he had in week 15. But if you kind of remove that one outlier game from the sample it's pretty flat across the board between JMO, Samba Porta and Amon Ross St. Brown super explosive 3rd Neanderthal yards catch per reception and I do agree With Fitzware, if Jared Goff is taking a step back and he kind of finishes more as a middling quarterback. I know like I'm specifically not high on Goff and Fantasy because I'm concerned about the lack of rushing and some pending touchdown regression coming for him. But if a player can make up for that, it's by their own ability. And we've seen Jameson make plays on his own regardless of the quarterback play. So he scored 15 career touchdowns, nine of them on been on plays of 40 or more yards. So this guy is just an explosive playmaker. If anything, when I think about how exciting he is, it reminds me a lot of the Tamichula season that was Will Fuller where you just see this guy play and he just has these insane weeks but then he gets injured and you're just pulling your hair out. You absolutely love the player, but he's so frustrating. And that's been the Jameson experience the first three seasons of his NFL career. Just super high highs, especially last year, but really low lows. But I think this year again away from Ben Johnson, there's an opportunity, I think that a new offensive coordinator comes in and puts his wrinkle on this offense and maybe that means, hey, we're going to feature Jameson Williams more, we're going to give him more layups, we're going to get him in space because we need to help Jared Goff a little bit more because of the offensive line concerns. The center retired. So putting it into your most explosive playmakers hands. That's why I'm still have confident in guys like JMO and Jameer Gibbs. And why again my concerns with Jared Goff are more related to Amon Rossane Brown. Where was he, you know, more favoring from the system, from the slot, gobbling up all the volume. What if the volume evens out? You know, Jameson Williams is a former first round pick. He was the 12th overall pick in the NFL draft. This guy is super talented. So I want to make the bet in round five on a guy taking the major leap and I think that he's a dark horse to be a top 12 wide receiver.
- [30:21]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Erickson can't ever be an investigator and he can't be a salesman because he's trying to make a case for Jameson Williams and he's throwing Will Fuller's name around.
- [30:29]
Andrew Erickson
Dude, remember the Will for start with DeAndre Hopkins was gone from that offense.
- [30:34]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Spectacular.
- [30:34]
Andrew Erickson
It was amazing.
- [30:37]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, unlike a lot of the other players we're talking about today, there's a lot of names on here that are Maybe they would fall under the umbrella of like a boring veteran type of pick. Jameson Williams is the up and comer, like high upside. It's fun to imagine the possibilities when you make a pick like that. When you pass on him, given your ranking fits, do you feel any FOMO like this is a pass that could really burn me because some of the other names on this list, it feels like it's more of a, you know, maybe you value the floor instead of the ceiling, stuff like that. This is one where the ceiling is fun to think about.
- [31:10]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It is. And you know, I think the, the scenario that could make you regret it would be like if anything happened to Amon Ross St. Brown, who's been really durable throughout his career. But like obviously they would endeavor to get the ball into Jamo's hands a whole lot more if Amon Ross St. Brown ever missed time.
- [31:28]
Ryan Wormley
Jameson Williams could be anything. He could even be Will Fuller. We'll see who healthy Will Fuller, not suspended Will Fuller. Let's go to a quarterback here in the mid round. Patrick Mahomes. Obviously considered by pretty much everybody to be the best quarterback in football, but not the best quarterback in Fantasy Football. He's QB7 in ECR, 60th overall. This has been a multi year stretch of him being disappointment in, a disappointment in fantasy relative to the type of quarterback he is in real life. Erickson, I'll start with you on this one. Are you drafting or passing on Patrick Mahomes at 60th overall?
- [32:03]
Andrew Erickson
So similar to the Trey McBride conversation, I think that he's fine where he is in the quarterback rankings. I'm actually higher on ECR than him. I have QB6 but looking at the 2025 quarterback board, I'm going lay around quarterback. There are so many guys entering their second season that offer rushing upside, that go outside the top 100 picks. That's the value that I want to play here. I think that with Mahomes specifically, he's probably a player I'd be interested in. Super Flex, where he is going to fall a little bit more compared to past years where he's basically been a top five Super Flex selection. So in those scenarios I want to say that I'm in on Patrick Mahomes because I think that to your point, Worm, you just talked about how he's one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL but he's not scoring fantasy points. Eventually that's, that's not going to be the case. Eventually the Chiefs are going to say, you know what, we're sick of Winning all these games. We just want to have fun again. They went for the three peat last year. It didn't work out. They were trying to win all these close games playing really, really close to the vest. No, like we're going to go out and have fun. We're going to have home sling it. That's why they drafted Xavier Worthy so they could throw the ball downfield again. Screw the two high safeties, don't care. They're going to have more fun. And it reminds me a little bit about the Patriots dynasty where there were some seasons where Tom Brady, you know, wasn't really there statistically. Everyone still knew he was a top tier quarterback. No one would suggest, oh he's really fallen off his game. But the numbers weren't there as they were kind of going through. All right, what's our offensive identity? And we've seen the last couple of years with Mahomes or like you said, he's been down the last two seasons. I just think eventually it's going to increase. And Chiefs were second in pass rate over expectation. They love to throw the ball, love to throw the ball in the red zone. Are we expecting Pacheco to score 15 rushing touchdowns this season? I don't think so. And if Rashi Rice Xavier Worthy are healthy, I think we could see Mahomes go back to averaging over 20 fantasy points per game from week eight onward. Last year he was averaging 21 points per game once we saw Worthy kind of hit his stride. So again strategically I want to go late run quarterback. So I won't be drafting necessarily a ton of Mahomes, but especially in Super Flex where I could see him going in the end of round one, maybe even round two because there are concerns where you could see some of the top running backs receivers go before him. That's where I'm going to be circling him on draft boards.
- [34:12]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, I wonder if you have a similar approach to Erickson here because it looks like based on your rankings you are higher than consensus amongst quarterbacks but lower than consensus on the overall rankings on Patrick Mahomes.
- [34:23]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, so I've got, well let's see, I've, I've got Mahomes QB6 and 59th overall. So I think I am maybe a little bit above consensus on him overall. I'm sort of with Erickson in that I kind of want to wait on quarterback too. And I think, you know, I'll be fighting Erickson for Drake May and drafts we're in together. Justin Fields is another favorite target, but there is an upside case to be made for Mahomes, especially now that he's getting drafted behind the Big Five at quarterback Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and sometimes behind Baker Mayfield. Mahomes is now pretty flush at wide receiver with Rasheed Rice healthy again, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, rookie Jalen Royals, and Travis Kelsey is still kicking. So I just I wonder if maybe we'll see more verticality in the Chiefs passing game. Mahomes has averaged under 7 intended air yards per pass in each of the last two years. He averaged a career low 6.2 intended air yards per throw last season. He was at 7.2 in 2022. He was over 8 in 2019 and 2020. Like not coincidentally, Mahomes averaged a career low 245.5 passing yards per game last season. He's also had pretty low touchdown rates in each of the last two years, 4.5% both seasons before 2023. Mahomes seasonal touchdown rates range from 5.4% to 8.6%. So Mahomes could conceivably get a bounce in some of these categories. Now that it looks like the wide receiver position isn't going to be a liability for the Chiefs.
- [36:07]
Ryan Wormley
I find myself approaching quarterback position. Like I am not saying that I will definitely go late round no matter what because I am actually kind of interested in getting one of Lamar, Josh Allen or Jaden Daniels. But if I don't get one of those kind of elite top three or four, there is like no chance I'll be drafting the sixth or seventh quarterback off the board this season because if I'm not getting an elite guy I want to take the 13th or 14th quarterback off the board because I don't see a wide gap between QB7 and QB14 this season. I think it's a massive tier between the elite and the guys that you really don't want. I think the guys that you're going to be excited about and paint a picture of upside from is like 12 names deep. So I will not be taking the first of that group where Mahomes tends to be at the top of that range. So I anticipate having very little Mahomes this year. I think I will either get a true stud early or be waiting to go to go later. Eric said, I know you said you're doing late round. Do you have any interest in kind of that elite 3? By the way, before we move off this?
- [37:07]
Andrew Erickson
I think for me, not really. I just like the late round quarterbacks that's always kind of been my strategy and maybe that's to my detriment that I haven't been drafting more of these elite mobile quarterbacks. But last year I was with the, I mean I think a lot of us were strapped Jane Daniels. I'm not, not. I don't need Lamar, I don't need Josh Allen, just need Jane Daniels. And I just see so many guys with a potential to be last year's Jane Daniels. Not necessarily rookies, but second year quarterbacks up and coming, better systems that rush Caleb Williams and Drake May are the top two names. Even guys like a Bo Nicks like Kyler Murray, you see so many players that offer rushing juice that can also, you know, we're expecting improvement as passers. So yeah, I think for me it's still like late round.
- [37:51]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, I mean I, that is true and we all as a show were very high in Jaden Daniels. But I do feel like a lot of years there are quarterbacks that don't hit. I mean even last year I was also really high in Caleb Williams as a rookie and that really backfired even though I, you know, so I, I hit one for two out of those two. But you can wait and then you are left very behind at a position that scores the most points.
- [38:16]
Andrew Erickson
Well, I think it's important to recognize that when you are approaching with a late round quarterback. I know in the one league that I, one of my bigger leagues that I won last year, you know the first quarterback I drafted was Anthony Richardson. He was horrible. But you know who I also drafted? Shane Daniels. So, so it didn't, it didn't matter that I had wasted that six round pick kind of similar to where Mahomes is going because I end up going late round quarterback. So I do think though, because I've seen with Mahomes in some of these best ball drafts where he falls because there are people that are kind of fed up with the last two years and the two I, safety Mahomes is not fun anymore, blah blah blah. And he starts to fall and that's why I point out in Super Flex formats where that's really where I'm kind of interested to see where he goes. Because I think you're going to start to see like Fitz alluded to top five quarterbacks, bang, bang, bang, bang. And then you're gonna see, okay, here goes Chase and there goes Bijan and maybe Barkley and then maybe see Mahomes kind of trickle down to the end of round one or beginning of round two where I don't care. Remember the last time he ever went that late in a Super Flex draft?
- [39:14]
Ryan Wormley
Welcome now to this week's Chasing Challenges brought to you by Microsoft. Just like the athletes who push boundaries and redefine what's possible, business decision makers today are turning challenges into opportunities. Microsoft meets you where you are with tools and guidance that help you make an impact. With safe, secure AI solutions. Players and teams are facing their own challenges. In this segment, we spotlight athletes or teams that are currently undergoing a challenge or what this means from a fantasy or betting standpoint, and examine how we think they can overcome them. Whatever challenge you are facing, Microsoft empowers you with the expertise to say, bring it on. This week we're discussing the challenges faced by Saquon Barkley coming off at nearly 500 touches in a season it might sound weird to highlight Saquon in a section about challenges given that he is coming off a league winning season and plays behind the best offensive line in football, but there is a long history of high touch running backs falling off the next year and nobody had more touches than Saquon. 378 combined carries and catches in the regular season, another 104 in the playoffs during the Eagles super bowl run, Barkley ended up with over 480 touches in the 2024 season. He's got a top three consensus ranking right now, so fantasy managers need a healthy Saquon Barkley this year, but he wouldn't be the first running back with this kind of workload to miss some time the following season. And that concern doesn't even account for any possible regression from the Eagles offense as a whole, surrounding Barkley or the not so fun Madden curse he faces as well. Saquon Barkley is the type of player every fantasy manager loves having on their roster, but that doesn't mean he is without question marks and challenges he's facing in 2025. That's it for this week's Chasing Challenges. Remember, Microsoft's AI solutions empower you to take bold steps and make informed decisions, sparking new ideas to help drive your business forward. With Microsoft as your trusted partner, you can navigate your journey with confidence, finding innovative solutions and reaching new possibilities. Visit Microsoft.com challengers to learn more. All right, let's go to Brian Robinson. Fitz, starting with you here, are you drafting or passing 77th overall RB30?
- [41:14]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I guess drafting because that's exactly where I have them ranked RB 3077 overall and I can make the analysis pretty short here. Solid if unspectacular early down back for an ascendant offense with a pretty good offensive line, I think it's the right price.
- [41:31]
Ryan Wormley
Erickson keeping it short and simple too.
- [41:33]
Andrew Erickson
I mean I don't know if I could follow up. It's his winging endorsement for Brian Robinson but I kind of feel the same way. Hey, like carbon copy fantasy, RB2 got some touchdown upside that just kind of feels like Brian Robinson. He's fine. If you need a RB2, RB3 with some touchdown equity, that's your guy. I will point out though, I think where I'm going to be projecting him, I'm putting going into my oracle phase here where Brian Robinson is going to be a guy we talk about on the trade show. If we're on it together this year as a guy we're going to sell high on because you look at the commander schedule. Giants, Week 1, Packers, Raiders, Falcons Pretty favorable schedule for a early down running back. Commander's offense starts out winning a lot of these games but we kind of know who Brian Robinson is. I don't think that he's going to ascend as an elite talent. So I think that if he runs hot with touchdowns he saw a lot of the red zone usage for the commanders. Last year I pulled this from Debro 10 games, at least a 40 snap rate. Robinson had fourth most carries inside the 10 yard line. So he's got touchdown upside. I think that he's going to cash in early on in the season. They could probably sell him a lot for the more but he's probably worth.
- [42:43]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah Fitz with Robinson, is it like for somebody on this show it feels weird to say this but it feels like he the range of outcomes barring injury is not very wide for him. It's very hard for me to paint a picture that he finishes as a league winner who's like RB7 at the end of the season. But it's also hard for me to imagine barring injury that he falls too much lower than where he's ranked. It feels like this is just kind of where he is and and maybe that's a good thing in terms of finding value because people on draft day, your fancy managers like the big exciting thing. It's harder to paint that picture with him, but it feels like more of a sure thing.
- [43:19]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Right, because Austin Eckler is going to get some of the work there. He's going to get a lot of the snaps and if Eckler gets hurt it's not just going to be all Robinson, it's going to be some other tag team part for Robinson and you know, the only threat. I know some people like Jakory, Crosby, Merritt, but he was what, a seventh rounder. So that would be pretty far fetched for him to come in and poach Brian Robinson's job. Not that it couldn't happen, but so yeah, I agree with you. It's a pretty narrow range of possible outcomes, or so it seems.
- [43:51]
Ryan Wormley
Let's go to, I think probably the oldest name on this list. I didn't actually check, but I can't imagine anybody's older. Travis Kelsey as a mid round pick here, obviously a guy who's been in the early rounds many, many times over his career. He's tight end 7, 83rd overall. Erickson, are you drafting or passing on Kelsey here?
- [44:08]
Andrew Erickson
I am not drafting Travis Kelce here. We saw last year he hit the age cliff and I know that the offseason reports have been pretty positive for Kelce saying that he feels good. He didn't really think that much about retiring. He always knew he was going to come back. But just the way that things ended last year was just so bad. He had that one big catch and run in the Houston playoff game and everyone was convinced, myself included wrongly, that oh, he's back like Travis Kelce, playoff mode is back. And then he just was a non factor in the Chiefs other two postseason games. I think for him it's just he's touchdown or bust. He still has a really good red zone role in the Chiefs offense. He was number one in terms of red zone targets last year from Mahomes. But how does that change with Rashi Rice and Xavier Worthy, you know, taking steps forward if Rice is healthy and if Worthy takes a step forward in year two, what about Marquis Brown not coming back just like they have healthy receivers. So I get seeing Kelsey's 97 catches last year and thinking oh man, this guy is a screaming value. But I don't think that he and Rice necessarily overlap to benefit each other. I think it's really one guy or the other because you just look at the first three games. Kelsey had nowhere near the amount of volume he saw without Rice in the lineup. So for me it's just too eerily similar of he has a Mark Andrews season from last year where he scores some touchdowns. His final numbers don't look that bad. But the ride that you're on with Travis Kelce In 2025, if it's anything like Mark Andrews last year, which I was on way too much, it was not fun and I don't want to go on it again.
- [45:42]
Ryan Wormley
Do you think Kelsey ends up as like one, just like every other tight end. Essentially that is just tight end or excuse me, touchdown or bust each week.
- [45:51]
Andrew Erickson
I do, I think that's kind of what his skill set is. I mean he's, he's a diminishing skill set. He's 35 years old. Yes, he can catch touchdowns, but there's a lot of tight ends that can touch, touch and even in his area. Again, I talked about some of these late round tight ends. David and Joku goes after Travis Kelsey. David and Joke could lead his team in target. David and Joko could see over 100 targets in the Browns offense and he's basically free whereas Travis Kelce goes several rounds ahead. So I'd rather have a Joke who in some of the other late round Titans I've talked about already.
- [46:16]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, I, I, I asked that because even in, if you view him in that light, even in the last two years prior to, you know, possibly falling off the H cliff, he's only had eight combined touchdowns. Like, like 20, 23. He only had five receiving touchdowns and then last year obviously just three. So if he is touchdown or bust, like if Mark Andrews is touchdown or bust, we know he's still getting touchdowns at the very least even if he's not doing anything else because he's a favorite target there. I don't even know if that's the way the Chiefs are really using Kelsey at this point in his career. Fits again. 83rd overall tight end 7 draft or pass.
- [46:48]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm drafting. I think he's a value and like the dude still had 97 catches last year and he was held out in week.
- [46:55]
Andrew Erickson
But Rice wasn't playing. Like that's the only thing I, how much does that matter if Rice is back? Like, I don't mean to cut you.
- [47:01]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I agree.
- [47:02]
Andrew Erickson
Kind of like I don't know, like.
- [47:04]
Pat Fitzmaurice
My, my over under for Kelsey on receptions is probably closer to 75 than, than up in triple digits. So like I'm not expecting a vintage Travis Kelsey season. And yeah, you have to acknowledge that he was way down last year in the efficiency stats. Yards per catch, yards per target, yards per outrun. But like he had really bad touchdown luck as you said Erickson. Like he led the team in red zone. Targets 25, nine targets from the 10 yard line are closer. Only three touchdowns. I mean that suggests he had some touchdown misfortune last year so we could get a bounce there. And yeah, like I know if the receivers stay healthy because the Chiefs now look pretty good at wide receiver. Like that could cut into Kelsey's target share. But, like, I still can't understand why TJ Hawkinson is being drafted ahead of Travis Kelsey. Like, I still think there's much more reception and yardage upside for Kelsey than Hawkinson. So, man, like, if you want to let Travis Kelce go late and granted, I'm not really looking to draft him much above this ADP of. Of 83 overall. But like, you give me him around there, like, I'm. I'm taking him.
- [48:16]
Ryan Wormley
Erickson, you mentioned in Joku. I think obviously Evan Ingram is somebody that, you know, we've talked about a lot in these shows this off season. There's not a ton of names after him that I'm feeling that great about though. Like, you know, you start to get into a couple names past Travis Kelsey and. And the two names that you mentioned, it's like Tucker, Kraft, Dalton, Kincaid, Dallas Goddard. Like, yeah, like I, I can kind of squint my eyes and see a case for guys like Craft and Kincaid, but it's not like I'm drafting them feeling like that drastically different about my tight end position than I would be. Travis Kelsey.
- [48:48]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think that this is kind of the weird tier because the middle range of tight ends, traditionally the, you know, tight end 7 to tight end 12, it's usually a bad just range to be drafting tight ends in because you. It's clear that we talked about the beginning of the show where there's a clear top three that we all feel pretty good about. We all have different orders, but it's like we have these top three guys and it's a teardrop. And just being the next guy in that tier, it's just hard for those guys to pay off because it's not like Sam Laporta's fault that he's tight end four in ECR or in adp, but just that guy in particular. Oh, you're the number one, not elite tight end. Like, that's not a player that, oh, I want to draft the first non elite tight end. Like, that doesn't sound like a good bet to make. So that's the other thing too. A lot of the Titans in this range, where Kelsey's going, where Mark Andrews is going, these guys tend to finish closer to the guys going behind them than the guys going in front of them. So can Kelsey, because this is where Kelsey was last year.
- [49:43]
John
Right.
- [49:43]
Andrew Erickson
He was tight in six overall tight end seven points per game. So if we're getting Kelsey that we got again last year. Okay, then I get Fitz's argument a little bit more where you're not drafting him in the second round wherever he was last year. So you're getting value in that perspective. But I think maybe I'm just kind of shooting for like maybe a Brock Bowers or John Smith type of tight end in the late rounds. And I, I don't think that's Kelsey unless you mean catches like 15 touchdowns. But like you pointed out, which I wasn't really aware of, that really hasn't been a major touchdown score, which is kind of interesting.
- [50:16]
Ryan Wormley
I think my takeaway is less that I want to wait till the late round and more that I, I want to get one of those first three guys.
- [50:23]
Andrew Erickson
So do we need to re record and say earlier training bride draft?
- [50:26]
Ryan Wormley
You guys listen, I said, I, I said I would love McBride early third. So you know, I, I don't know that you get him there. Maybe this makes me more inclined to take him in the late second just to make sure I get him. But yeah, I'm, I'm not really excited about any of these tight ends range.
- [50:42]
Andrew Erickson
Fitz, I just. Fitz, can I follow up with you for one thing? So would you take, would you rather wait for. For Kelsey or draft Kittle where his ADP is like what would you prefer doing?
- [50:53]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Kittle is third round early. Third.
- [50:55]
Andrew Erickson
Third. Third. Fourth. Yeah.
- [50:57]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Third. Fourth. Yeah, yeah. I mean I would rather have Kittle.
- [51:02]
Ryan Wormley
All right, let's go to the late round guys. We can go a little bit faster here because obviously the later you get, it kind of just gets into more like personal preference. But that is what we were highlighting your guys personal preference here. Are we drafting or passing on Travis ETN Erickson, a guy who you were very excited about a year ago. He's now 104th overall which is reflective of the year he had an RB35 draft or pass this season.
- [51:23]
Andrew Erickson
I'm going to be drafting him at this, at this price because this is I think his floor. This is what he finished as last year when he was terrible. He was RB36 last year going as the RB35 ECR ADP. And all indications right now have been that the skin new coaching staff is more than happy to have him as their potential RB1. I think they're still figuring out who they want to be their lead running back. But I think right now Travis Etienne is in the driver's seat. You know, Tank Bigsby is dealt with fumble problems in the past. He also is not a established pass catcher despite his mini breakout last year that was really based on a lot of big rushes and give credit to him like he did break off a lot of big runs last season but still not trusted as a receiver out of the backfield. And that's where Travis ETN has been used, especially with Trevor Lawrence, not only with Jacksonville but also dating back to their days with Clemson. So if Trevor Lawrence has say in this offense, I think that he's going to go to bat for his guy Travis etn. I think that means he's going to have a role on this team and I'm optimistic about this offense overall with Liam Cohen and RB35, I think that he's just, he's just really cheap and I think that there's a clear upside case where ETN has been a top five fantasy running back before now. I don't think that that's really like what we could see from it because I don't think they're going to go back to him as a bell cow. I think he's shown that he can't really handle that type of workload. But can he be more efficient, not banged up and an improved offense? I think so. So I like ETN here.
- [52:39]
Ryan Wormley
Probably 35 Fitz, unless you've changed your rankings since we put this outline together, I think this is the player that you guys have the widest gap in terms of how you are ranking them on and you appear to be much lower, much, much lower than Erickson on Travis etn.
- [52:54]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I'm lower, but I'm also sort of torn on etn. Like on the one hand Travis ETN is going into the final year of his contract. The Jaguars drafted Bayshaal Tootin. They still have Tank. It would be pretty easy for the Jaguars to just fade out ETN this year. And ETN was objectively bad last year. 3.7 yards per carry only for 17 missed tackles all season. In terms of rushing yards over expected per carry, that's a next gen stats stat. ETN was underwater -0.28 rushing yards over expected per carry. He was getting less than expected when he carried the ball. But then again ETN missed two games with a hamstring injury last year, may have played some games at less than 100%. We are talking about a 26 year old running back who had 12 touchdowns and almost 1500 yards from scrimmage two years ago. So I don't think, I don't think he's a bad buy at this price by any means. Like he does have plausible upside and if he's not getting enough touches early in the season, you can just drop him. Like having a 9th rounder fail to pan out is not going to crush you.
- [54:01]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz. Let's stick with you for the next player. Javante Williams 112th overall RB37 so just a few spots behind ETN.
- [54:09]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah and I'm a little lower than this with Javante in my rankings, but I'm not totally opposed to taking this ride again. Javante said recently that he's starting to feel like his old self after he had that major knee injury in 2022 where he tore his ACL and LCL. He was so impressive as a rookie back in 2021, but he was sharing work with Melvin Gordon. Javante averaged almost 3.5 yards after contact per carry as a rookie. Forced a lot of missed tackles, had 43 catches. But then Javante after the injury just has not been the same guy. Not surprising given the severity of the injury. So did have A career high 52 catches last year but for only 346 yards, no touchdowns. Didn't have a hundred yard rushing game all season is season high was 88 yards against a really bad Saints run defense. He had two of his four touchdowns in that game. All other games besides that game against the Saints Givante averaged 6.7-half point PPR fantasy points per game, but only 25. He's competing with Miles Sanders and two rookies, Jaden Blue and Phil Mafa. And I know Jane Blue is fast but the 2021 version of Javante Williams is better than Jaden Blue. So it's not inconceivable that Javante takes the lead RB role for the Cowboys and runs with it.
- [55:31]
Ryan Wormley
He's also a lot better than this version of Miles Sanders. I like to me Javante Williams will definitely be ranked inside my top 100 and he will definitely be ranked inside my top 36 running backs. And it's not even about like oh it's been long enough removed from the injury and now I think he's getting back to this stud that he was, you know, or appeared to be becoming as a rookie. It's just the opportunity is here in what I think will be a good offense. Now that again Dak Prescott, CD Lamb, George Pickens. This is an offense that I think is going to score touchdowns and like if you think Javante Williams is washed like I will show you Miles Sanders and show you what washed really looks like and then you're talking about a fifth round rookie who whose skill set doesn't even appear to be the type that would detract too Much from Javante. Like, I just don't see any world where a healthy Javante Williams this season finishes outside the top, like 33, 32, even running backs just based on the opportunity to score touchdowns alone. I just, I just don't see a path there barring injury.
- [56:31]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, here's the thing where the three of us are degenerates. We're going to be in like a dozen or more redraft leagues. And my stance is that I want to get some exposure to Javante. But if you're only in one or two leagues, like a lot of our viewers and listeners, like, I don't know, like, I guess I'm okay with the current asking price on Javante. I'd probably want to get a little bit of a deal if I'm only drafting in one or two leagues.
- [56:54]
Ryan Wormley
Erickson. I kind of view Javante similarly to a guy that we liked a lot Last year in J.K. dobbins, where has this injury history. He's going really late, but there's such a clear path to opportunity. There's nobody else in the offense that it feels like it's going to be a significant challenge and it's an offense that we think is going to be good enough to score touchdowns. I see a lot of similarities there. Where do you have Javante Williams again? 112th overall in ECR RB37?
- [57:19]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I have him in this range, so I think he's very much draftable here. And you want to see washed? I can show you my laundry if you're really interested. Just. Just washed, ready to go right next to Miles Sanders.
- [57:28]
Ryan Wormley
You want to see cooked? Let me show you my dinner.
- [57:32]
Andrew Erickson
We could be here all day. We're already running out of time. I, I mean, I agree with mostly what with everything that said and kind of what you outlined. I think in particular builds, it makes sense to understand what Javante can offer you. I don't think that he's going to be be a fantasy RB1. Even with Dobbins last year, we kind of saw it fizzle out as the season progressed. Like he just couldn't handle taking on that workload because of the history of his injuries. Javante's is a little bit different, really. Just one devastating injury, but they're gonna trust him in pass pro. He's gonna catch dump off passes from Dak Prescott. So I think that he's fine. And with the amount of running backs that you're going to draft before Javante that are rookie running backs that may not have great week one Roles, for example, Caleb Johnson, right? I love Caleb Johnson. I cannot guarantee what his role is going to be. Week one, you're probably not gonna be able to start in week one, but you know, you can probably start week one when you draft him. 112th overall Dallas Cowboys running back Javonte Williams, although he's facing the Eagles, so maybe you don't want to start him, but you get the thesis of the play where you have some of these veteran guys kind of you start them to open the year. Kind of like what Chuba Hubbard was last year, right? So cheap. Super late because, oh, we're all afraid about the rookie taking over. I think that Javante can be a bridge to some of these running backs that we're waiting for second half surges because we know that he can at least hold the job for, you know, for the first couple weeks of the year.
- [58:50]
Ryan Wormley
If Javante Williams is healthy the whole season, I think he finishes inside the top 24 at running back, honestly. And part of that is that's almost cheating to say because any running back who stays healthy the whole year is going to be stop the hot day.
- [59:02]
Andrew Erickson
You can't come with the cabin. You can't be like, top 24 next player.
- [59:07]
Ryan Wormley
I think if he's healthy the whole season, top 24 on opportunity alone, it's not even saying that he's gonna look like the Javante of old. I just think the opportunity is so clear there. So I will definitely be drafting him there. Darnell Mooney, next up. Erickson, starting with you on this one. 117th overall wide receiver, 49.
- [59:23]
Andrew Erickson
I think that I'm going to probably be passing on Darnell Mooney. And it's not that I don't like the player necessarily. I just think that he's kind of more of the boomer bust type of wide receiver that I have on my bench that I kind of struggle to figure out, okay, am I starting this guy this week? I know if he's playing Tampa Bay, yes. Darnell Mooney's going to be locked into my starting lineup and I do like the fit with Michael Penck, but the range he goes in. There's a lot of running backs that I like that I'd rather have on my bench. Taj Spears, Jordan Mason goes in his range. I love Jordan Mason this year as a running back to draft in the Vikings offense. And Rico Dowdle, a guy we talked about a little bit earlier when talking about Chuba Hubbard. So those guys are all in the same range and even some of the receivers like some of the rookies go in the same range as Darnell Mooney. Keon Coleman, a second year receiver that I think could be a major breakout guy goes in this range. So although I acknowledge Mooney has a pretty solid floor and I think that in leagues where you have to start a lot of receivers it probably makes sense to get a guy like Mooney because he almost had a thousand yards receiving last year and I think that he's a good player. But does he have like top tier? No. This guy could be a league winner. Upside? Probably not without an injury to Drake London. So I think that I would rather stash some other guys in his range than draft Mooney Fitz.
- [60:38]
Ryan Wormley
Darn on Mooney. Draft or pass Draft.
- [60:40]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I like him as a wide receiver. 4 wide receiver 5. He's been underrated since coming into the league. What I like about Mooney for this year, he is not coming off the field very much. He had a 92.9% snapshare last season and the Falcons made no significant additions at wide receiver. It's Drake London, Darnell Mooney and then man, I don't know. Number three is either Ray, Ray McLeod again or maybe Nick Nash, an undrafted free agent. So Mooney's going to play a lot and I believe in the arm talent of Michael Penix Jr. I think he's going to put up good passing numbers this year. So yeah, I love Mooney as a wide receiver.
- [61:16]
Ryan Wormley
4 or 5 Last name here Fitz. We'll stick with you. Romeo Dubs, 150th overall wide receiver 57. Are you drafting or passing on the packers receiver?
- [61:28]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Pass. There just isn't that much upside. The targets are going to be spread around In Green Bay. The packers were one of the run heaviest teams in the league last year. I just don't think there's any real, I don't know, no ceiling with Dobbs Erickson.
- [61:45]
Andrew Erickson
I'm going. I mean if the packers fan wasn't going to draft Romeo Dobbs then yeah, I think that he's. He's like an innings eater, right? Is that the baseball terminology? Yeah, he's just out there getting routes, occasionally catches, touchdowns. He's a starter. I think he's good in basketball when you need guys to just fill in bye weeks. But in redraft he's a. I think that his ceiling is 5 receiver 3 at max. I think he's just like much like worse version of Darnell Mooney. So yeah, pass for me.
- [62:13]
Ryan Wormley
You can't be doing baseball analogies. Fitz and I are facing each other for the one of the final spots to make the playoffs in our fantasy baseball, you guys are already in the playoff. So it's, yeah, we, we finish up this league before football draft season gets going because everybody here is working for a company that has to dive so much into football. So it's, I mean, listen, I'm not excited about the way the playoff setup is, but it's the way it is. So this is the last week of the regular season. Fitz and I are both contending for a playoff spot and facing each other. So it's, it's hate week here, right?
- [62:43]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I get to knock Worm out of the playoffs. It's going to be glorious.
- [62:46]
Ryan Wormley
All right, I'll go ahead and wrap up there. Thanks everybody for tuning in to draft or pass for Erickson and Fitz, I'm Ryan Wormley. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on media Social Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and Tik Tok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [63:37]
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- [64:07]
Sarah Spain
I'm Sarah Spain, host of Good Game with Sarah Spain and the co author of the new book Runs in the Family, an incredible true story of Football fatherhood and belonging. Written with and about Las Vegas Raiders running backs coach Dylan McCullough. It's the story of a football coach and father of four who sees his life forever changed by the unsealing of his adoption records. And it's got a twist you won't believe. Based on the viral ESPN story I did a few years ago, this book will blow your mind and bring you to tears by Runs in the Family. Wherever books are sold, this is an I Heart podcast.