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FantasyPros - Are You DRAFTING or PASSING on These Running Backs in 2025? (Ep. 1606)
00:52:05
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- [00:00]
Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
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- [00:33]
Ryan Warmley
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I am Ryan Warmley, joined today by Jake Seeley from the Athletic and by Pat Fitz Morris. We are doing some draft or pass. We did an episode similar to this earlier in the summer kind of talking about general positions. This is going to be running back specific. We're going to throw out some running backs here and decide if we are drafting or passing on these guys at their current ADP ecr. Kind of where they are going in the early rankings. As a reminder for everybody, you can find all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers@ fantasyprose.com rankings. Again, that's fantasyprose.com rankings. Jake, before we dive in, what do you have going on at the Athletic?
- [01:12]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, I got final part of the series coming out of the breakouts for 2025 tight ends, the one that everybody was waiting for. Woohoo tight ends. But I did a little spin on different spin on the quarterbacks, running backs, all four positions. I did the case for and case against. So it's not just like here are my breakouts because I love them. Like this is how things can go sideways too. So I thought it was a little bit deeper of a dive this year.
- [01:36]
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, if I made you do a list of your favorite breakout tight ends this year, who's the first name you're thinking of?
- [01:41]
Pat Fitz Morris
Favorite breakout tight ends? Would Tucker Kraft count or did we get the Tucker Kraft breakout already?
- [01:48]
Jake Seeley
No, he could. I mean, because it was inconsistent last year. He was actually I had him on the list last year. I was thinking about putting them back again because you look at tight ends and you're like man, I gotta come up with five, right? I could do that.
- [02:00]
Pat Fitz Morris
There aren't many. And you know, I'm starting to warm to the idea of a Tyler Warren breakout in year one. I know, we'll see about that. I know everyone hates the I'm not.
- [02:09]
Jake Seeley
Big on rookies, but there is one that I think that you Might not be thinking of. That's a big one. Yeah, I'll give him one. Can I give him one more shot, Warren? Yeah, give him one more shot to think of somebody. Like who? It might be a break.
- [02:23]
Pat Fitz Morris
Don't tell me it's Kate Otten.
- [02:25]
Jake Seeley
No.
- [02:25]
Pat Fitz Morris
Okay.
- [02:26]
Jake Seeley
Jacksonville.
- [02:27]
Pat Fitz Morris
Oh, okay. Brenton Strange. Sure, I'll buy that.
- [02:30]
Jake Seeley
There you go. Probably going to be number one on my list.
- [02:32]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, that's a really good call, actually. Like plenty of opportunity there. Yeah, I like that call a lot.
- [02:38]
Ryan Warmley
All right, that's enough tight end talk. Let's get into the running backs. What people clicked on this episode for. We're going to start kind of at the top of the rankings as usual and work our way from the early round guys to more of the mid round guys. So. So again, you guys are just going to tell me if you are drafting or passing at this ranking as of right now here in early July, we're Starting with Devon H.N. and Fitz, I want to start with you because I'm assuming I know the direction you're going with this given your long history with this player. But Devon Achan is RB6, 14th overall. Are you drafting or passing?
- [03:09]
Pat Fitz Morris
I am drafting him. I wasn't quite as enthusiastic about Achan a few weeks ago as you might have imagined, Worm, but I did start rethinking his outlook a little bit. And then the trade that sent Johnny Smith to Pittsburgh happen and that sort of put me over the top with Achan. I guess what worried me about Achan was the possibility that the Dolphins passing game might rediscover the principle of verticality that they totally abandoned last year. That Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle would go back to being as involved as they were in 2023 when they combined for 275 targets and 2800 receiving yards last year. 206 targets, 1700 receiving yards for those two. So. But with John who gone, it might not matter if if Tyreek and Waddle are more involved because A chan is going to get the vast majority of the quick hitting throws from Tua and the Dolphins. Like they're getting Darren Waller. But Waller is more of a vertical seam splitter tight end than Johnu, whose average depth of target last year was like 4.9 yards. So I wasn't sure Achan had much of a chance to match his 78 receptions from last year. Now I think he does. And one other thing to consider, Tua does not steal rushing touchdowns from running backs. Tua has not had a touchdown run since 2021. The Dolphins are not going to put two at risk with QB sneaks or other designed runs. Now maybe HN isn't the goal line back for Miami. Maybe that's going to be Ollie Gordon's role because Gordon is a big dude. But I think it's going to be Achan in the game when the Dolphins are at the seven yard line and probably Achan in the game when the Dolphins are at the four the five yard line. So I don't know. Achan's had 14 touchdown runs in 28 NFL games. He had eight in 11 games as a rookie. I think he could conceivably get to like 10 or 12 this year. And I just, I think a chain can be basically the the spitting image of early career Alvin Camara in terms of his statistical output. And Camara averaged 102.7 scrimmage yards per game, just under a touchdown per game over his first four seasons. I think A Chan could give us those types of numbers.
- [05:24]
Ryan Warmley
Do you think like so you're drafting him in this range 14th overall? Do you think RB6 is the right number? Because there's a lot of names in that group like Genti's, RB4 Henry, RB5 McCaffrey, RB7 that various people like for various reasons. Is RB6 the right spot for HN just amongst the position?
- [05:40]
Pat Fitz Morris
I think it is. I have moved him up to RB5 and I'm fine with RB6. Like I'm fine with people who want to put Derek Henry, Christian McCaffrey ahead of him. Yeah but for me he's RB5.
- [05:53]
Jake Seeley
Jake, what do you think RB6 actually moved him up one spot recently with that change that Fitz was talking about. I am okay taking him. I'm just in front of Jacobs, just in front of Taylor, Jinty and Irving and down the rest. There's only obviously five running backs in front of him but nothing Fitz said I disagree with. This is why we're drafting them. The upside, the excitement for H and especially having Jonas Smith out because of John who and Waddle finally maybe playing the full season not banged up at some point in his legs throughout the entire year. But if all three were going to be healthy then we would have had some concerns. The only concern left remaining and this is just something to understand when you do draft Achan is that this could go sideways if two is hurt again because he did not have but one single of his six single digit performances. Only one of them came when Tua was at quarterback. The other five were without him but both when Tua got hurt early in the season and then when Tua was out for Week 17, so. And he didn't even score 10 points in any of those games. So that's the concern here, is that a Chan without Tua, this might be messy. And I know they have like, you could argue a backup quarterback improvement this year, but I still would be hesitant just to know that, like, hey, if you do draft Achan with your first running back, maybe you played a little bit safer with your second. Just because he could have RB2 value for the entire season if there's no 2. Because at this point you have to admit that Tua is an injury concern every single year. Similar to like a Jonathan Taylor. I know we're talking running back, but just to put that comparison out there. So I'm okay with it because I think that Achan has RB1 potential. If Tua play the entire season, like he could be the. I don't mean like RB1 like that obviously at 6. I mean the RB1 potential. But. But you're taking him at 6 because of that inherent risk.
- [07:36]
Ryan Warmley
I feel like for me personally, like amongst the position, I would. I would rather have Henry cause I feel like he has a similar ceiling but a higher floor. And I. I'd rather have McCaffrey because I think he has a similar floor but a higher ceiling.
- [07:47]
Jake Seeley
Higher ceiling, yeah.
- [07:48]
Ryan Warmley
Hm. Versus Genty, I find to be an interesting one in this tier. Like I. I could see myself going either way on that, but that does feel like the right range. So while I don't feel like he's, you know, some kind of screaming value where he's going right now, I do think it's the right spot and I'm. I'm willing to draft him there.
- [08:03]
Pat Fitz Morris
Full point ppr. You're still taking Henry over hn?
- [08:06]
Ryan Warmley
I would. I. With an early pick like that, I just would rather have the floor and even a full point ppr. Like if he doesn't get hurt, I think Henry's gonna have a 50.
- [08:14]
Jake Seeley
Derek Henry generally hasn't had a massive drop off in like where he ends.
- [08:19]
Ryan Warmley
I just think Henry's gonna score so many touchdowns if he's healthy. Like in this office. I don't think. I don't think anything is going to change from last year to this year assuming he stays healthy. So I see that really high floor and I'd rather have that than HN even in full ppr. But I can totally understand the argument against it. Let's go to the next running back here, Kyron Williams. He is RB11 and he's 24th overall in the rankings in terms of our tiers. To give a sense of it, A Chan was right in the middle of tier 2, Kyron right at the top of tier 3amongst. Amongst guys like Chase Brown, Breeze Hall, James Cook and Kenneth Walker, other guys in that tier. But like I said, RB11. And I'll start with you this time, Jake. Are you drafting or passing?
- [08:55]
Jake Seeley
I chuckle because I have him at RB11 and I actually have tier two of running backs. I go further than that, I go down to 13. So Kyren's solidly in the same tier as McCaffrey and Henry and all the rest. Because let's be honest, we've seen Kyron Williams finish as a top five running back. The risk is everything that you say about Kyron Williams is valid. And I don't mean you guys. I mean just everybody out there who the naysayers should be about, you know, volume, reliant, efficient, lack of. It just has to do with the McVeigh system, blah, blah, blah. What if McVeigh starts using somebody else? Although I've been on this podcast, you guys both know this. I think we did it together a few weeks ago. It's like every Single year Sean McVeigh is drafting a running back on day two or day three, and every single year he's talking somebody else up. You can copy paste Blake Corum for Jarquez Hunter, and you can copy and paste those running backs for the previous ones. Talking to the next man up, the next man up, the next man up. I don't think Nevaeh is all of a sudden going to start going to a committee. Is there a chance that the contract situation doesn't work itself out? Because that's the positive is that it sounds like they want to get a contract done, but if not, then does that lead to potentially two bad games in a row and then McVay does pull the rug out? Because that's the one thing that I will say is like, I don't believe he's going to go to committee, but the One risk with McVay is that after two or three bad performances, he might turn to the next person. And it's not that I'm talent threat of Corum or Hunter necessarily, it's just that I don't think you have to be a top five running back in McVay's system to put up top five numbers. And that's the risk, is that he goes away from Kyron for a game and Whoever he turns to, Corum or Hunter do great because this McVeigh system, they put up a top 10 performance and then it's immediately changed from there on out. But that's why he's a back end RB1 and not top five, because that's why I put him in this tier. His numbers, if you said of McCaffrey, Henry, HN and down the list and everybody like Kyron's right in there at the top of this tier. At the end of the season, if he doesn't have the job lost, you wouldn't be a shock to anybody. We're just scared that he's going to lose the job.
- [10:55]
Ryan Warmley
I think, Fitz, that Kyren is an interesting example of the type of player I've talked about before on the show, where I think the ranking is probably correct, but I still don't anticipate drafting a lot of him. And I think I would just rather wait and get Chase Brown is going lower than him, Kenneth Walker, you know, you know, a little further down lower than him. I think I just rather wait then take him. Even If I think RB11 is about the right spot for him. Are you drafting or passing Kyron there?
- [11:23]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, the thing is, Worm, like, if you wait, I mean, Kyren is going around that round two, three turn, so you're waiting until the round four, round five turn and maybe those guys aren't really available. So I'm, I'm actually drafting him here. Kyren has finished RB2 and RB8s and a half point PPR fantasy points per game the last two years. He was third in the NFL in rushing attempts last year, only behind Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. And over the last two years, Kyron has scored 31 touchdowns in 28 regular season games. I know Kyron wasn't very efficient last year, and it's a little scary to invest in him when the Rams keep drafting running backs. I mean, first Blake Corum last year, then Jarquez Hunter in this year's draft. But I do think the risk is sort of baked in at, at this price. You know, kyron at the 2, 3 turn. Like, say you start with Jamar Chase at 101, you can maybe get Kyron and JSN at that 2, 3 turn. Like, yeah, I'm, I'm in for that.
- [12:23]
Ryan Warmley
I'm in at that two, three turn. Jake, are you looking at Kyron or are you looking at like receiver or one of these early tight ends or something else?
- [12:31]
Jake Seeley
Most likely, if I'm at the 2, 3 turn, probably running back, wide receiver. Because you're Saying like the 1, 2 spot, I probably lean Chase, maybe even Jefferson. You know how my feelings are with the running back situation. I'd rather be at the back end of the first round so I can get a McCaffrey or Henry or a Chan or something like that. But because of, there's a good chance, if you're talking about at the turn, whether the first or second pick, I probably went Chase or Chase Jefferson or whatever it might be. So I do want to. My inherent draft strategy is to get a running back in my first two slash, three rounds, depending on where I'm picking. I'm not going to be beholden to it. As in the fact that nine running 10, 11, 12 running backs go off the board. And as Fitz is saying, you know, we're already blown through Chase Brown and now you're talking about I have to take Chuba Hubbard at that spot, which I, I don't hate Chuba Hubbard, just not at the 2, 3 turn. I'd rather take him at the end of the third round so I could see myself falling into a wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver start, depending on how the board falls. But if Kyron is there, I would smash draft that.
- [13:31]
Ryan Warmley
It's a good point by you guys and Fitz on the idea of like, even if I might like Walker at RB15 better than Kyron at RB11, you know, chances are I won't be on the clock with both of those as options, right? So it's a fair, it's a fair point there when you're thinking about your own draft strategy. You can master your draft strategy by testing it out in minutes using our draft simulator. The draft simulator allows you to practice quick and fun, realistic mock drafts based on your league settings in minutes. Sync your league for free and try it today@fantasypros.com Mock or or download the Fantasy Football Draft wizard app. All right, next running back up here, somebody who, I think there will just be a lot of conversation about this player. I think in the next few months on our show, on other shows. He's just an interesting player who was a first rounder a year ago and who is now, you know, down to RB13, 33rd overall towards the back end of the third round. And Fitz, that's Breece Hall. Are you drafting or passing on hall? Where he's going to?
- [14:32]
Pat Fitz Morris
Even though the price is coming down? I'm passing. I don't love fading, talented players, but I'm just not that interested in spending a third round pick on Breeze Hall. Aaron Glenn has said repeatedly that the jets are going to use all of their running backs this year. He just keeps saying that over and over. So it seems like it's going to be a committee with Breeze Hall, Braylon Allen and Isaiah Davis. And I also wonder how much pass catching upside Breece hall is going to have with Justin Fields, a mobile quarterback whose running backs did not catch a ton of passes when Fields was in Chicago. I mean, that's normally one of the things that makes hall appealing. He's had it was 57 catches last year, 76 the year before that. I don't know if he's getting a 50 catches this year with Justin Fields. And hall had a Hall had a really good like he had trouble against good defenses last year. He faced four run defenses that were top 10 in DVOA against the run. He averaged 34.8 rushing yards per game, 3 yards per carry in those four games. So just a collection of things about Breeze hall that are kind of troubling me. I'm just going to draft around him, I think this year.
- [15:45]
Ryan Warmley
Jake, what do you think? I thought Ryan Heath on the show you and I taped with him earlier this week, made a compelling case for why, despite red flags, he is kind of coming around in the idea of drafting Breece Hall. Do you lean more on that side or more on Fitz's side of passing.
- [15:57]
Jake Seeley
On him here at cost With Fitz, that's actually why I chuckled on the answer, because I'm figuring out what point we're going to actually disagree so far in the show. But I actually have him a few spots back at running back. Not by much, but because of that there's other wide receivers, including his teammate, that I would take in front of him. I actually have more as like a back fourth round pick than in his range. So it's not that I'm completely out on Breeze hall, just the names he's going around, especially at wide receiver. But to bring up what you said with Ryan too. You know, everybody talks about Tanner Angstron and being able to improve the passing game and everything like that. Well, coming from the Lions, you could kind of create your own narrative to back up what you're saying. I'm not saying that's what Fitz is doing. I'm just saying for everybody out there, for Instren coming from the Lions, well what did they do, use two running backs but at the same time the passing game coordinator passes to the running backs? Well, you could say who's the better pass catcher between hall and Braylon Allen. So does he become Gibbs and Allen becomes Montgomery if he follows the Lions plan. I put, you know, put that kind of in quotes like is that what we're going to see? But at the same time Justin Fields is going to take his own Justin Fields. Fitz just brought it up and there's that conversation too. Is like is it the chicken or the egg? Is it the fact that Justin Fields doesn't throw a lot to his running backs because of the collection of talent he had at running back over the years or is it just that's not who he is. And I think it's a little bit of both, honestly. But all that being said is I actually come down the middle on both of those statements. Like I think Justin Fields can throw more to his running backs but I don't think it's going to be Drew Brees esque level where he's targeting them all the time. And that's just they're running routes all the time. At the same time. I think you could also see Angstrend improve the game but also have both running backs involved and this is just not even accounting for Also Fitz is right. Isaiah Davis I thought was one of the better values in the draft class and I hated that they got Allen and Isaiah Davis in this backfield which all leads to that's the risk of Breece Hall. So you tell me one round later I'll buy in, but at this price just because I don't think it's associated enough risk with him, I'm probably out, I feel like.
- [17:59]
Ryan Warmley
And Fitz, I'm curious if you think this is a sound strategy. Like I will be comfortable if I miss out on Breeze hall because I pass on him in the third round but if I can get him even in like the early fourth, I feel like I do want to have some Breeze hall and not totally miss out. If the talent just like he kind of bounces back and and looks like the guy we expected a year ago, I don't want to totally miss out on that. So I feel like I'll be hoping to get him maybe more like the early fourth but then if I miss out because I pass on him in the third, I'll be okay with that. I forget where you said you exactly have him ranked fits, but does that feel like a sounder strategy to you?
- [18:33]
Pat Fitz Morris
It does feel like a sound strategy Worm. Let's see, I've got so I've got Breece not that far off from. Well, I'm pretty much in line with where his Consensus ADP is just as far as the overall sort of that later third round but man, I just, I like the options around him more. Like I'd even consider. I think I'd rather have a premium quarterback over Bree. And you, you know you're going to get one of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jaden Daniels at least being there. I think, I think I'd rather have like Mike Evans there, maybe even Tyreek Hill. Yeah, I'm just, I'm not into Breeze this year.
- [19:16]
Ryan Warmley
Go to a running back that I feel like has been brought up on the show a lot that people are against. I'm curious if you guys are going to agree again. Jake, I'll start with you. James Cook, RB14. That's one spot behind Breeze hall positionally, he's a few spots further down in overall. He's 39th in the overall rankings on ECR. James Cook, are you drafting or passing at this spot?
- [19:38]
Jake Seeley
I am drafting is almost right in line with my rankings mostly because I think we've associated enough risk to pull James Cook down to not even be in an RB one, which he just was. I think everybody on earth is like, you cannot have that touchdown percentage again. This goes back to if you remember Matt Ryan and the Falcons of like that high touchdown rate that they had that year. I think it was 2018. It was like everybody can't happen again. And it didn't. But at the same time, like you can pull back from it and still have a really good season. Like I think we've all drafters, rankers, whatever you want to put out there have put enough out that James Cook is not going as what he just finished as. Not even close. I mean, you're talking about almost a full two rounds later than what he should. If you just replicated last year, you'd be like, well, he's a second rounder but nobody's taking him there. Which is why I'm kind of okay with this because what if James Cook still rushes for 10 and I've given him the same rushing touchdown, even 8, he's still a mid to top end RB2. So I think we've talked up enough and I say we as on this show and everybody else out there have talked up enough that like we understand math, we understand football, we understand regression. It's likely that he doesn't come close to last year. But at the same time, even if you chopped off six rushing touchdowns, and I said this when we were talking to Ryan Heath, you're still talking about a top end RB 26 touchdowns is.
- [21:01]
Pat Fitz Morris
A big drop off.
- [21:03]
Jake Seeley
So at this cost, I'm okay. Now if we're talking a month from now and it starts to pull back up because everybody's like saying the same thing and contracts and everything's fine with James Cook and all of a sudden he's going back inside the top 10, then I'll probably be out. But I think right now we've associated like this, Kyren. We've associated enough risk to say it's okay to take him here, in my opinion.
- [21:20]
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, what do you think?
- [21:22]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, I mean, so I guess this is our first point of disagreement, Jake and I, but it's a pretty mild point of disagreement because he's just kind of a gentle fade for me. And, you know, Jake just made the point about touchdown regression. I think we all know that's coming, so that's. That's fine. But, you know, like, one of the reasons I think he's getting nowhere near 18 touchdowns and is probably going to be closer to the six he had in his second year is that Josh Allen calls his own number near the goal line so much. And it kind of amazes me still that Cook was able to score 18 touchdowns last year. When you consider how much Josh Allen likes to run and scored quite a few rushing touchdowns himself last year, there's also another way in which Josh Allen could limit James Cook. Like, Allen just does not throw to his running backs all that much. And that's so often the case with the mobile QBs. They just don't check down when they can run on their own. And even though Cook is a really good pass catcher who might have 50 or 60 reception upside in different circumstances, his single season high in receptions is 38. So we know Cook isn't going to be a workhorse rusher because he weighs under 200 pounds and his single season high in rushing attempts is 237. And at least for the time being, we also have to worry about this contract impasse Cook has where he wants a new deal and the Bills don't seem inclined to give him one. But even if that gets squared away, I think I'm going to be out on Cook this year.
- [22:52]
Jake Seeley
You completely chop his touchdowns in half, he's still RB16 to 18 and RB16 overall, RB18 to points per game. So that's why I'm saying, like, maybe he needs to go another spot or two later. But that's like, even dropping in half, he's still top 18. Whatever you want to count them as.
- [23:10]
Ryan Warmley
What is the point, Fitz? That you would take Cook because I know you've been fading him throughout draft season. At what point would you say no, this is the time to pull the trigger.
- [23:18]
Pat Fitz Morris
I mean, I'm not that far off. So he's RB 1439 overall. I've got him RB 1542 overall. It's just I like a few other guys in that range a little better and I'm probably picking like, let me see who I've just in front of.
- [23:34]
Jake Seeley
Him, there's, there's a group of five I feel like and for while you're looking fits, I kind of like Cook, Camara, Hubbard, hall and Connor. Like, I feel like those five are all like kind of that group of. Wow. If everything goes right, they could be top 10. But they have the risk to fall to like into the 20s.
- [23:51]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, yeah, that's fair. I mean, I think the guys I'm taking just ahead of him in that range are like Camara, you know, Terry, McLaurin, Tyreek. If you take Hubbard or Cook, I would take Cook. I've got Cook ranked just ahead of Chuba.
- [24:06]
Ryan Warmley
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Jake Seeley
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- [27:28]
Ryan Warmley
All right guys, let's go to the mid round running backs here. Fitz James Connors first up. Just kind of alluded to by Jake there. He's RB19, 50th overall drafting or passing?
- [27:40]
Pat Fitz Morris
I'm drafting Connor there. He was RB11 in overall half point PPR fantasy scoring last year RB14 in fantasy points per game. I mean maybe there's a greater injury risk with Connor than with other backs, but he did play 16 games last year. Cardinals offensive line is actually pretty good. They ranked ninth in the run blocking metric, adjusted line yards. Connor contributes as a pass catcher. He had 47 receptions last year and I don't, I don't think Trey Benson has any chance to steal Connor's job on the merits. I don't think we even really know yet whether Benson is any good, to be honest. And Connor. Connor is a pretty favorable schedule, which is what I like, especially early in the season. Cardinals open with the Saints, Panthers and 49ers who were among the six worst teams as far as fantasy points allowed to running backs last season. And Connors matchups in weeks four through seven aren't bad either. Seahawks, Titans, Colts, packers so he could get off to a really fast start.
- [28:42]
Ryan Warmley
I'm drafting Connor, Jake James Conner, RB19, 50th overall Like I said. Any worry about Trey Benson or are you drafting him here?
- [28:51]
Jake Seeley
I'm not worried about Trey Benson. I think Trey Benson is a nice pick to take as a late round flyer. The excitement that people had for Benson last year was all baked into the fact of James Conner could miss time like he does every single year. He actually James Conner had one of his healthiest seasons in a long time and came the closest I think he has in a long time also to play in a full season. But that's why he's going this late. You're telling me James Conner is my RB2 and I can take him at the 45 turn. As Fitz just said, he was an RB1 in points per game. When James Conner is on the field, James Conner is producing the risk of him missing time. We all know it's real. But let me ask everybody out there watching this and listening to somebody that I've brought up before on this very show, everybody's like, oh my God, I'm scared of James Conner. Let's push him all the way down here. And I'm not saying to push this guy as far, but at what point is Jonathan Taylor not in the same conversation of three years straight? We're talking about injuries and we still want to take Jonathan Taylor as a top 20 pick, possibly pushing the first round. Like again, I'm not saying push Jonathan Taylor that far, but Jonathan Taylor should be down a little bit further and James Conner should be up a little bit further because we're doing the same thing. They're both talents that can finish top 10 in points per game, both with injury risks except one's coming in my opinion as a supreme value. We are back to it in full agreement.
- [30:07]
Ryan Warmley
What do you think about that comparison? Fitz? Jonathan Taylor.
- [30:09]
Pat Fitz Morris
I agree. I mean I, I love jt. You know, I'm a Wisconsin guy so I, I will keep up for him. I do think he's one of the best peer runners in the game. But yes, like these ankle injuries have become problematic for JT and I'm sort of baking that into where I rank.
- [30:24]
Ryan Warmley
Him the next mid round running back here. David Montgomery, he's RB21, 55th overall, so very similar range to James Conner. Jake, I'll start with you on this one. Are you drafting or passing David Montgomery?
- [30:38]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, I'll make mine a little bit quick this time because we just talked about them on the previous show that you mentioned with Ryan Heath and this range. I'm out on David Montgomery. I am in the mid-20s and I know everybody in the comments are coming for it. Like, you know, it's good. Dave Montgomery was actually top 15 in points per game, which is fine and I like, I get it, I understand but like we're just assuming that everything's going to be just as good as it's always been for the Lions. Ragnow, one of the best in the league is gone. They have issues to concern with with the coaching staff and the off and I'm not saying they can't be the Lions again, but you have to accept the fact that there is some risk and you're talking about some risk for the second piece. Like that's the thing is he's the RB2 on the team. He's not the RB1. So I'm just never going to take a timeshare running back which as great as he is, I'm not discounting Dave Montgomery and how great he's been at all, but I'm just never going to take a 2 as a near top 15 price similar to like I think well Devonte Adams is great value at wide receiver because he can be a wide receiver one with Puka Nakua. I'm still not going to draft Devonte Adams as a top 12 wide receiver just because he can do it. So I'm just out at this cost. If he was going where I have him in the mid-20s, I would take him. But I have clear, I have starters in front of him and Isaiah Pacheco and stuff like that. And if somebody wants to argue Pacheco behind Montgomery, I get it because of the risk there. But my point being is I'm going to take a started running back over the second piece of a timeshare.
- [32:08]
Ryan Warmley
What do you think about this one, Fitz? How good does this offense need to be for the RB2 to be a successful fantasy pick where Montgomery is going?
- [32:17]
Pat Fitz Morris
You nailed it Worm. Because so much of Montgomery's value has been touchdown related the last two years. He scored 25 touchdowns in 28 regular season games and the Lions led the NFL in scoring last year and I believe they were first fifth two years ago. So they would need to be top five in scoring again I think for Montgomery to hit double digits in touchdowns again most likely. And do we expect this Detroit offense to continue its high flying ways with no more Ben Johnson, no more Frank Ragnow as Jake just mentioned. And look, if you guys were in charge of the Detroit offense and had Jameer Gibbs at your disposal, would you be giving some other running back almost as many touches as Gibbs? Like I just, I wonder if Campbell and new offensive coordinator John Morton might allocate the backfield touches a little differently than Johnson did because Gibbs is such a special player.
- [33:10]
Jake Seeley
I mean we're talking about record ish setting type of offense last year and if everybody wants to come for James Cook, then why aren't we coming from David Montgomery? Just pointing out even you copy paste last year's Lions. Even then like Ben Johnson still with the team, Ragnar hasn't retired. Even then we should be acknowledging there's some touchdown inherent regression risk that's that's just got to be part of it.
- [33:33]
Ryan Warmley
I also wonder if like the cat's kind of out of the bag on Gibbs. Not that we really ever thought he needed a 1B for him to be a successful 1A. But we saw when Montgomery was hurt last year that he is has absolutely no problems handling a large workload and being an absolute superstar. And I wonder if like the Lions just look at that and say like kind of what you just said Fitz, like hey, we're running this thing. We don't have to defer to the genius of Ben Johnson. Why wouldn't we just give him all the touches to Jameer Gibbs? Like it seems so obvious, right? For us at least. So I wonder if they kind of have more faith in his ability to handle just a full time workload and not need David Montgomery to spell him. Not. And again, not that we were like worried about that before, but just now that we've seen it, maybe it makes it easier for them, I guess to just lean into the superstar they already have. I want to tell everybody about Draft Assistant. It helps you make the best decisions during your fantasy draft. It connects directly to your draft and provides both real time pick suggestions and estimations on which players might get taken before your next pick. Draft Assistant fully integrates your customized cheat sheets and suggests picks based on your rankings, team build, ADP and other factors dominate your draft in real time without the guesswork with draft assistant@fantasypros.com assistant or on the Fantasy Football Draft wizard app. All right, next player here, FITZ Tyrone Tracy, RB32, 90th overall. So moving further down in ADP here and in the rankings, is he somebody that you're Drafting or passing? 90th Overall RB32 oh man, you're starting with me.
- [35:12]
Pat Fitz Morris
I mean, I know, I know Jake has forsworn his allegiances to the Giants, but, but still, I, I know he's got his finger on the pulse, so I'm anxious to see what he said. I. I think I'm drafting Tyrone Tracy here just because ambiguous backfields can be a rich source of fantasy value potentially. Like the ambiguity holds down prices and if you get the right guy in an ambiguous backfield, you can turn a big profit. And if you get the wrong guy, you either, you know, keep him on the bench or wave him and it's not that painful because you didn't pay much. So I really have no idea how Brian Dabel is going to divide the work between Tracy and Cam Scatterbo. And the Giants do still have Devin Singletary, I guess. But Tracy's versatility should keep him involved and give him multiple paths to fantasy value. He's a good pass catcher. He was college wide receiver to start off his career and he was pretty good as a runner last year too, other than the fumbling issue. So yeah, I think I'm on Tracy at RB. What, 32. RB 32.
- [36:17]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, yeah, 32. Jake, what do you think? What do you make of the backfield with Scatter Boo there now? Does RB32 sound right for Tracy, 90th overall? Are you drafting or passing?
- [36:28]
Jake Seeley
So I'm going to save the second part of your question because I'm going to start it off with saying that people by now, if they've been watching these shows, know I am on Scatter Boo more than I am on Tracy because I think what he brings and I know some people will draw the comparison to their size and that's very true. They are similar size, but that doesn't mean they're similar styles. Like you can be the same size and just different like basketball players. Like size doesn't always mean everything. And I know they talk about the explosiveness for Tracy and that I'm not taking that away from him. But Scatterboo, despite there being similar sizes, Scatterboo's got him by what, five or ten pounds. He is between the tackles better runner. He is somebody that when you watch him play, you can see the difference between how they run. You can also see the difference of how their legs are used and they turn that being Scatterboos. So I do think the Giants need more of that. I think that you saw Tracy as good as he was last year, surprising as he was to some people, and this is coming from somebody that was in on Tracy last year is that you still went back to single that, not you as in Brian Dable still went back to Singletary at times just to bring that other dimension. It's not like Singletary is amazing between the tackles. It was just kind of another complimentary piece to each other. And then also the fact that Tracy fumbled like that, that's something that Dable is not going to put up with. So I say all that to say is that I do have Scatterboo in front of Tracy and Tracy was going higher just a month ago. But I find it interesting something to lean into. What Fitz said here is that if we're going to start having Tracy's ADP drop, two things need to happen. Is one, it shouldn't be happening. If everybody's going to stick on Tracy and say that he has all this explosiveness after the touch, blah blah blah, then he shouldn't be dropping or two, if we're going to drop him, why isn't Scatterable going up? Like somebody is going to finish inside the top 30, probably the top 25. Can't be both ways. Like you can't drop Tracy and just leave Scatterbo way down there by like RB 39 or 40. That makes no sense. So I'm presenting all that to say is as much as somebody that's on Scatter boo over Tracy at this price I'll draft Tracy too. I think it's very similar that you can make the argument to the Steelers situation where heck it's going to frustrate sometimes. But maybe both of them just have fringe RB2 value and you're starting either one of them as your flex running back a lot of weeks.
- [38:43]
Pat Fitz Morris
Jake, just to to be clear, like you would not ever want to have both of these guys on your roster. I would want to? Yeah. I mean because it's, it doesn't seem like it's going to be an either or. It seems like it's going to be both to some degree.
- [38:55]
Jake Seeley
But at least Tracy at 32 for Tracy and Scatterbill is going to sit down at 39 or 40. I'm not aiming to do it. I don't want to do it. But I would take both at the cost. And then hey, guess what, maybe one hits and then the other doesn't. But at least at that cost, you're talking about two round separation of them that in that range as you brought up as one of your main points and I'm not saying you're arguing me, I'm echoing your point is they are bench pieces. If one of them ends up taking a clear lead, even if it's Tracy, you're going to benefit because they're bench pieces.
- [39:28]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah.
- [39:29]
Ryan Warmley
Let's go to one more mid round running back Travis ETN. He's RB 34. Jake, I'll start with you on this one. 95th overall draft or pass I'm drafting.
- [39:39]
Jake Seeley
I've been on Travis ETN saying that he was a top five running back just two years ago and I know a lot of that happened in the first half of that season and hasn't been very pretty since. But I also look at this backfield and there's going to be a running back that we talk about at some point that I'll save for this that I don't think is a factor in this backfield. But also as much as Tutin's involved here, it's the Tyron Tracy thing all over again is there's already fumbling issues that we knew about that are already presenting themselves in camp and there's already been talk of Liam Cohen coming to this team and whatever he does with this backfield. And I know a lot of people want Tutin to be the Bucky Irving and I'm not saying that's a non zero chance of happening, but there's also a non zero chance that ETN just goes back to being good and is the lead and that Tutin's no more of a complimentary third down passing game piece who by the way would also have to do most of his without the pass blocking piece of being in on third downs because that's a major concern for Tuton to begin with where this could be an entire committee. But again, as a bench piece, if ETN gets 250 touches, I mean if we're all excited about Cohen and what he can do for this offense then 250 touches, even if they're not the prettiest, 250 touches is going to be a boost to his value at this cost. It starts to we get more bad news about Tutin, we get more of ETN looks like he does two years ago and ETN starts creeping inside the 25 running max. That's a different story. But at this price, again, it's a bench piece. I'm going to gamble on the bench piece that as of right now is the leader in this backfield.
- [41:12]
Ryan Warmley
What do you think Fitz?
- [41:14]
Pat Fitz Morris
Oh, you know what I said about leaning into ambiguous backfields. Well, I'm really not doing that here with etn. And it's weird because I mean man, like Jake said it, there was that sort of cutoff point for ETN in 2023 where he was fabulous for the first half of that season. He was averaging like 20 ppr points a game I think through the first seven or eight weeks and then just kind of a downturn, like not a go over the cliff downturn but just clear downturn. He went to like 13 PPR points.
- [41:45]
Jake Seeley
He was sliding down a hill.
- [41:46]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, definitely. And like last year, he was just objectively bad, like 3.7 yards per carry. He only forced 17 missed tackles all season. He averaged minus 0.28 rushing yards over expected per carry. So he was getting less than was expected of him given the circumstances. On Average Average Just 1 yard per route run in the passing game, which is, you know, pretty bad for a running back. He is a free agent after this year and the the Jaguars drafted not one but two running backs. They got Tutin in the fourth and laquint Allen in the seventh. The Jaguars still have Tank Bigsby, who's coming off a pretty strong year where Tank's efficiency metrics just blew ETNs away and this looks like a backfield by committee. And Tank Bigsby is really the only guy whose role looks somewhat predictable because he's the best inside runner in this backfield. And I think it's a safe bet that Bigsby gets a pretty healthy share of the early down snaps. But like, who gets the rest of those early down snaps and who plays on passing downs? Because I think the two rookies pose a much bigger threat to ETN's role than they do to Bigsby's role.
- [42:58]
Ryan Warmley
Want to let everybody know that they can join us live on twitch Tuesday at 4pm Eastern for fantasy football draft court two analysts battle it out over players they highly disagree on with Joe as the judge and you as the jury, join the courtroom Fun at Twitch TV FantasyProse and cast your vote on every player debate. All right, guys, let's do a quick lightning round. This will be Would you rather I'll throw two names your way. You can give me a quick thought on why you're going one way or the other. A couple of these names have come up already. Just in talking about some of the other players that we've dove a little more deep into. Got a handful of Would you rather hear though fits Josh Jacobs or Jonathan Taylor?
- [43:38]
Pat Fitz Morris
Jacobs packers ran the ball really effectively last year. Jacobs looked terrific in that offense and I worry about the ankle issues with Jonathan Taylor also. Just not much past catching upside there. He had 18 catches in 14 games last year.
- [43:53]
Ryan Warmley
Jake Jacobs or Taylor?
- [43:56]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, Jacobs. One spot in Taylor and just basically what Fitz said, but especially the passing game and everybody's going to be talking about how miserable the quarterbacks are going to be for the Colts. Well, then let's just take the one thing we know and Jordan love.
- [44:08]
Ryan Warmley
How about Aaron Jones or DeAndre Swift? Jake?
- [44:12]
Jake Seeley
Oh, can I pass at cost? I'm going to take DeAndre Swift. I think that Jordan Mason is a serious threat to Aaron Jones. I don't mean just like if Aaron Jones gets hurt. I think we're seeing the Aaron Jones kind of downturn at this point of his career where I think Swift is a risk, but at least I don't expect swift to get 65% of the touches. I think like Swift is just going to be the lead of a timeshare, whether it's Johnson a mornangai with him. But I think I'll take Swift given off the fact of the cost between the two.
- [44:42]
Pat Fitz Morris
Fitz I'll take Jones. I think he's still good and you know, he gets a boost playing in Kevin oconnell's offense running behind a refurbished offensive line. The Vikings really made some major repairs in the middle of that line. I'm still not entirely sure how good DeAndre Swift is and it seems like we should know that by now. And they're just a lot of unknowns with the Chicago offense under Ben Johnson. So I'll take Jones. But yeah, like I don't know. Do you. Do you guys feel like definitively that Swift is good? I don't think we know.
- [45:14]
Jake Seeley
No. I think he's above replacement. But I do think that Ben Johnson. Look, I know everybody talks about what happened with him with the Lions, but the one thing that was telling is at least he's Going to be the pass catcher. That, that's the good news here. That's why I would take Swift Joe.
- [45:27]
Ryan Warmley
Mixon or Kenneth Walker fits a Walker.
- [45:31]
Pat Fitz Morris
I mean if he can stay healthy he is going to thrive in Clint Kubiak system like it's a system that's heavy on outside zone and that is right up Walker's alley. Mixing is just a total stay away for me this year like Houston's offensive line might be the worst in the league and now mixing as competition for touches with the signing of Nick Chubb and the drafting of Jaquavius Woody Marks.
- [45:54]
Jake Seeley
Jake, I like that you included his entire name and this is a Walker by a mile for me. This is the super like you said by the way staying healthy. Well somebody's not healthy right now and between the two of them is Joe.
- [46:06]
Ryan Warmley
Mix, Travion Henderson or Caleb Johnson. A couple of rookies. Jake, who would you rather?
- [46:12]
Jake Seeley
Oh I got. I got Travion Henderson by a big gap actually there's a section we were going to talk about the players that were targeting heavy in draft and I would have said Trevion Henderson but I've said him way too much at this point. I'm going to have a ton of Travion Henderson this year. You know I feel. I do think he's explosive. I think he can do so much and I know people are worried about a timeshare. I'm not that worried about Ramond Ray Stevenson, Antonio Gibson and the rest and even if I brought it up before James White oh by the way the last player without a 210 touch season to finish as a top 15 running back and what the Patriots offense with a very similar system to what they're running back there because they're all back again in McDaniels so I don't need Trevion Henderson to have 270 touches to have top 15 value Fitz.
- [46:55]
Pat Fitz Morris
I mean for me it's much closer. I also have Henderson ranked higher but only by one spot because I could see Caleb thriving like they're just going to cast him into this vacated. Yeah, exactly. And it's a.
- [47:08]
Jake Seeley
Does it make it feel better that I have him in the same tier? I just have Henderson as the first in the tier and Caleb Johnson the last of his the tear.
- [47:14]
Pat Fitz Morris
Totally fair Jake. Yeah, I mean like I, I do feel this could go either way. I could see Caleb having a 10 touchdown season but I, I have to give Travion an edge because I think he's going to be much more involved as a pass catcher than Caleb Johnson will be.
- [47:28]
Ryan Warmley
How about Quinshon Judkins? Another rookie obviously or Isaiah Pacheco fits.
- [47:33]
Pat Fitz Morris
Oh man. Another tight one for me. I've got Pacheco ranked RB28, Quinshon RB29. I'm giving Pacheco a mulligan for last year. Came back from a fractured leg in less than three months so not surprising that he was kind of a shell of himself when he came back. I just, I have so many questions about the Cleveland offense and I actually think Dylan Sampson like it annoys me to no end that the Browns took like two running backs I loved from this class and you know they, they might be competing for Tushes Jake yeah.
- [48:06]
Jake Seeley
I'm the same on this one mostly because judges not only has Sampson but we're just already casting his side Jerome Ford which deservedly so you're going to talk about pure talent but it's not like he can't be a factor. But let's also just go back to one thing. If you're going to take the leaders of both teams, assumingly Pacheco and Judkins, who are you going to take? You're going to take the better offense. So if we're going to risk on Pacheco bouncing back, everybody knows that I like Bashar Smith as a passing game weapon but if Pacheco looks anything like he did pre injury and Fitz, weren't you the one that even said that like if Pacheco would have never played last year wouldn't we be ranking him higher because it would be the unknown of the optimism. Like we would have rather not see him look bad last year than to see him. So I would take Pacheco just because if he's anything like he was pre injury you're going to take him on that team.
- [48:52]
Ryan Warmley
Last one here in the lightning round, Jake starting with you. Ramandre Stevenson or Javante Williams?
- [48:57]
Jake Seeley
Javante Williams like I just brought up is mostly because of the Travion Henderson thing. I think that they've been looking for a reason to get away from Stevenson and Stevenson looked pretty awful for good portions of last season. Not the entire year but good portions of it. So much so that Antonio Gibson was getting to start over him we saw when that happened so I'm going to take the chance. Javante Williams we brought it up with the show that we did with Ryan Heath if, if, if, if he's anything like he was pre injury but the good news is he's not even going as a top 30 run so he doesn't look good in the first two or three weeks, you drop him a move on. The worst thing that's going to happen with Raj Stevenson is he stays part of the timeshare and then you're just holding him on your bench and be like, well, maybe you can pull back. No, you can just draft your vonte and either you get the answer or you move on. Which is probably the more appealing part of not having to deal with Ramont Stevenson.
- [49:46]
Ryan Warmley
Oh, yeah, I am all over Javante Williams at his current cost. Fitz, would you rather have Javante or Ramon Dre?
- [49:52]
Pat Fitz Morris
Javante. I mean, Ramon Ray is now clearly the second best guy in the New England backfield behind Travion and Javante. He says he's just starting to feel like his old self after that knee injury in in 2022 where he tore his ACL and LCL. If he's back to 100%, it's possible he takes the lead RB job in Dallas and just runs with it.
- [50:14]
Ryan Warmley
All right, we're going to wrap up the show with one running back from each of you that you are drafting everywhere and one running back from each of you that you are fading everywhere. Fitz, who is your must have that you are drafting everywhere.
- [50:24]
Pat Fitz Morris
All right, I think I'm going to get an amen from Jake on this because it's Jordan Mason. Just heard Jake say that he'd rather have Mason at cost than Aaron Jones. I'm actually interested in both of the Vikings running backs, but at their respective costs. I do think I like Mason a little bit more. His ADP, last I checked, was RB35. Mason is just a really good fit for the Vikings, another team that runs a lot of outside zone, which is totally in Mason's wheelhouse. And let's not forget how good Mason was filling in for the injured Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco early last season before getting hurt himself. Mason averaged 107 rushing yards for the 49ers over their first five games. And I I think Mason could have some standalone value this year and he would absolutely become a winning lottery ticket if anything happened to Jones.
- [51:12]
Jake Seeley
Yep.
- [51:13]
Ryan Warmley
Jake, who's your must have running back you're drafting everywhere?
- [51:17]
Jake Seeley
Somebody else who got hurt last year, but also a lot of people were excited for and then just didn't hit for multiple reasons. But J like we're all just, you know, Raheem Mostert's gone. The backup job is his, and it's not just going to be a backup job if everything's right with the Dolphins. Right is going to be used weekly where, you know, maybe you fill them in at a flex spot depending on your buys or injuries or whatever. And if anything were to happen to Achan at this point, which he's been nicked up a few times already through his career, I think Jalen Wright's excitement from last year should not have been forgotten for this year. Where he's going right now is honestly criminal. Like it's just the upside for him is clearly top 20 if not more if something were to happen to Achan.
- [51:58]
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, who are you fading everywhere?
- [52:01]
Pat Fitz Morris
We touched on him a little bit earlier.
- [52:03]
Jake Seeley
He took the layup.
- [52:04]
Pat Fitz Morris
It is a layup. It's Joe Mixon. I mean it's just the Texans have a bad offensive line. Like they have not gotten that line much help in the off season. They brought in Nick Chubb, they drafted Woody Marks. Mixon is about to turn 29, so the age cliff is starting to loom. I'm just staying away.
- [52:24]
Ryan Warmley
Jake, who are you fading everywhere?
- [52:27]
Jake Seeley
It's funny, you know, earlier Fitz brought this player up and he talked positively, but we disagree on the final player a little bit. I'm just out on Tank Bigsby and mostly because I just don't know that if everything even hits, you know, like people bring up the whole changing of the coaching situation, the pass catching option. Well, even as bad as Rashad White was, he was still used in the passing game for that being for the Bucks where I just don't see a lot of value in the non pass catching running back, Bigsby's role might be secure. You might be completely right about that Fitz, because Laquin Allen I think actually has some Rashad White similarities to his game to bring him up in the fact. But I think that you're seeing that it's the ETN that can do it all. But basically we haven't seen that ETN in a while. But you have the explosiveness in the passing game of Tutin. You have a Rashad White type of player and Quint Allen and watch him be the answer to this entire quagmire here. But the one role that I just have no appeal in is the one that isn't going to be used in the passing game. That is just the runner because it is the Cohen offense. So I'm just kind of out on Bigsby because I just don't see a ceiling with him. Even though he's right. That being Fitz, he did look better than ETN did last year.
- [53:37]
Pat Fitz Morris
But I agree with you, Jake. Like I'm not really necessarily. Like, I think Bigsby is going to have a set role in the offense. I just don't think it's really a fantasy relevant role because he is a complete, complete zero as a pass catcher. And we don't know that he's going to be like a 10 touchdown guy either. Like, we can't, we can't assume that he's going to get a lot of touchdown opportunities.
- [53:57]
Ryan Warmley
All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there. A lot of different running back names we hit on in this episode. Hope everybody appreciated it. For Jake and Fitz, I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and Tik Tok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [54:50]
Pat Fitz Morris
Did.
- [54:50]
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- [55:19]
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- [55:55]
Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast.