FantasyPros - DON'T BE FILLED WITH REGRET | 12 Most Overvalued Players in 2025 (Ep. 1581)

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – FantasyPros: DON'T BE FILLED WITH REGRET | 12 Most Overvalued Players in 2025 (Ep. 1581)
Release Date: June 2, 2025
Host/Authors: Ryan Warmley, Andrew Erickson, Tom Strachan
Platform: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

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Introduction

In Episode 1581 of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd," host Ryan Warmley, alongside co-hosts Andrew Erickson and Tom Strachan, delves into the landscape of fantasy football for the 2025 season. The primary focus is identifying the 12 most overvalued players based on their current Average Draft Position (ADP) versus Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) from FantasyPros. The discussion aims to guide fantasy managers in making informed decisions to avoid regrettable picks.

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Early Round Overvalued Players

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions – Wide Receiver)

Andrew Erickson initiates the discussion with Amon-Ra St. Brown, highlighting his high draft position versus projected performance:

• Erickson (03:03):
  "He's being drafted 8th overall but projections have him closer to 16th when considering flex positions."

He points out increased target competition in Detroit due to emerging talents like Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, which diluted St. Brown's target share from 27% to 23% in the latter half of the previous season.

Tom Strachan counters by emphasizing St. Brown's reliability:

• Strachan (06:43):
  "His touchdowns have grown each season, showing his established role despite new offensive dynamics."

He argues that St. Brown's consistency and touchdown growth make him more secure than Erickson suggests.

Ryan Warmley aligns partially with Erickson but acknowledges Strachan's points:

• Warmley (05:20):
  "If I can get him in the mid to late second round, especially with a strong receiver in the first, it’s acceptable."

Conclusion: While Erickson believes St. Brown is overvalued at his current ADP, Strachan maintains confidence in his established role, leading to a nuanced view among the hosts.

2. Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins – Wide Receiver)

Andrew Erickson expresses strong skepticism about Tyreek Hill's fantasy value:

• Erickson (14:02):
  "Tyreek Hill is vastly overrated as a top 36 overall player. His efficiency dropped significantly last season."

He cites Hill's declining yards per route run and persistent injury concerns as key factors undermining his performance.

Ryan Warmley concurs emphatically:

• Warmley (15:46):
  "He's losing a step, and with age and dependency on a potentially unstable quarterback like Tua, I won't draft him in the top tiers."

Tom Strachan reinforces the consensus:

• Strachan (16:48):
  "His yards per reception and touchdown output have declined, marking him around player 35 in rankings."

Conclusion: All hosts agree that Tyreek Hill is overvalued in early rounds due to declining performance metrics and injury risks.

3. Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts – Running Back)

Tom Strachan critiques Jonathan Taylor's value:

• Strachan (08:27):
  "His fantasy points often relied on just a few high-performance games. Without consistent production, his season falls flat."

He highlights Taylor's dependency on offensive performance and his fluctuation in weekly production, positioning him lower in RD rankings.

Andrew Erickson aligns with Tom, noting potential drawbacks:

• Erickson (10:38):
  "Although Taylor has a projection that aligns with ECR, his efficiency and offensive line uncertainties make him risky."

Ryan Warmley offers a middle ground:

• Warmley (10:04):
  "Comfortable drafting him in the mid to late second round, especially if paired with strong receivers."

Conclusion: While there's some comfort in drafting Taylor, concerns about consistency and offensive support suggest caution.

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Mid Round Overvalued Players

4. DJ Moore (Chicago Bears – Wide Receiver)

Andrew Erickson targets DJ Moore as overvalued:

• Erickson (25:32):
  "The Bears' dysfunctional offense casts doubt on Moore’s ability to maintain WR1 status. Drafting him might limit upside."

He references Moore's fluctuating performance, driven by offensive instability and quarterback chemistry issues.

Ryan Warmley supports the assessment:

• Warmley (25:32):
  "Despite Moore never finishing below WR22 since his rookie year, his recent decline and offensive role raise red flags."

Tom Strachan remains neutral but acknowledges concerns:

• Strachan (27:17):
  "Moore doesn’t fail spectacularly, but he isn't a standout either. His placement around WR23 feels acceptable."

Conclusion: The Bears' offensive issues make DJ Moore a cautious mid-round pick, with potential upside limited by team dynamics.

5. Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings – Wide Receiver)

Andrew Erickson critiques Addison's projected performance:

• Erickson (33:13):
  "Addison’s touchdowns were concentrated in the latter half of the previous season. With a new quarterback, his target share isn't promising."

He points out the Vikings' likely shift towards a run-heavy offense, reducing Addison's involvement.

Ryan Warmley offers a balanced view:

• Warmley (34:18):
  "While Addison has consistent targets, his touchdown dependency and new QB dynamics introduce uncertainty."

Tom Strachan remains cautiously optimistic:

• Strachan (49:04):
  "Addison’s touchdown numbers are impressive, but regression in production is plausible. However, surrounding offensive questions make him a manageable risk."

Conclusion: Jordan Addison is viewed as overvalued due to concentration of touchdown production and potential offensive shifts, though his consistent targets offer some security.

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Overvalued Sleepers

6. Debo Samuel (Washington Commanders – Wide Receiver)

Tom Strachan marks Debo Samuel as overvalued:

• Strachan (40:36):
  "Debo had disappointing performance last season with the lowest receiving success rate in his career. Projecting him around round seven is more appropriate."

He emphasizes Samuel's inefficiency and injury history, questioning his role in the new Commanders' offense.

Andrew Erickson agrees:

• Erickson (42:13):
  "Samuel's inconsistent performance and lack of reliable usage make him a risky pick. Even with potential upside, the floor is too low."

Ryan Warmley concurs thoroughly:

• Warmley (44:14):
  "Samuel hasn't consistently delivered high yardage or touchdowns outside his breakout season. The offensive uncertainty in Washington undermines his value."

Conclusion: Debo Samuel is consensus as an overvalued sleeper with low reliability and questionable offensive fit.

7. Jaden Blue (Dallas Cowboys – Running Back)

Tom Strachan criticizes Jaden Blue's draft value:

• Strachan (57:30):
  "Blue's limited college production and unclear role behind established backs like Giovanny Williams and Miles Sanders make him a questionable pick."

Andrew Erickson echoes the concerns:

• Erickson (59:22):
  "Blue may appear explosive, but his lack of goal-line touches and fumble issues limit his fantasy reliability."

Ryan Warmley reinforces the sentiment:

• Warmley (58:42):
  "Blue is drafted 30 spots higher than expert rankings suggest. With potential competition and offensive inefficiencies, his value is inflated."

Conclusion: Jaden Blue is deemed overvalued due to limited production history and uncertain role within a competitive backfield.

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Additional Overvalued Players

8. Kyron Williams (Los Angeles Rams – Running Back)

Tom Strachan discusses Kyron Williams' decline:

• Strachan (19:22):
  "Williams has shown inefficiency with a low DVOA and fumble issues, decreasing his reliability as a fantasy asset."

Andrew Erickson supports this evaluation:

• Erickson (21:26):
  "With rising competition and declining efficiency, drafting Williams poses significant risks of underperformance."

Ryan Warmley adds a personal hesitance:

• Warmley (20:57):
  "Having been burned last year by fading Williams, I'm reluctant to risk drafting him again."

Conclusion: Kyron Williams is viewed as an overvalued pick due to declining performance metrics and increasing competition for touches.

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Mid-Season Considerations

9. Devonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles – Wide Receiver)

Andrew Erickson scrutinizes Devonta Smith's fantasy worth:

• Erickson (34:18):
  "Smith excels when teammates like A.J. Brown are injured but struggles otherwise, making him a conditional asset rather than a reliable starter."

Ryan Warmley emphasizes Smith's conditional performance:

• Warmley (35:58):
  "While not a bust, Smith's value hinges on injuries to primary targets, which isn't a dependable strategy for consistent fantasy success."

Tom Strachan remains cautiously neutral:

• Strachan (37:03):
  "Smith is solid but not standout. His role varies based on the team's health dynamics, making him a flexible but not essential pick."

Conclusion: Devonta Smith is considered overvalued as his fantasy production is inconsistent and heavily reliant on external factors like teammate injuries.

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Concluding Insights

The hosts collectively caution fantasy managers against drafting certain high-ADP players who may not deliver expected performance due to various factors like offensive changes, player age, injury history, and role uncertainty. They advocate for thorough analysis and considering player efficiency, team dynamics, and future projections to mitigate regrets during drafts.

Notable Quotes:

• Erickson (03:03):
  "Amon-Ra is being drafted 8th overall but projections have him closer to 16th when considering flex positions."

• Strachan (14:02):
  "Tyreek Hill is vastly overrated as a top 36 overall player."

• Warmley (05:20):
  "If I can get him in the mid to late second round, especially with a strong receiver in the first, it’s acceptable."

• Erickson (25:32):
  "DJ Moore is a cautious mid-round pick, limited by team dynamics."

• Strachan (40:36):
  "Debo Samuel had the lowest receiving success rate in his career; projecting him around round seven is more appropriate."

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Final Thoughts

"The Herd with Colin Cowherd" Episode 1581 serves as a strategic guide for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to navigate the complexities of player valuations for the 2025 season. By highlighting overvalued players across early and mid-rounds, the hosts equip listeners with the insights needed to optimize their draft strategies and enhance their competitive edge.

Transcript

[Ryan Warmley]

This is an iHeart podcast.

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[Ryan Warmley]

Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I am Ryan Warmley, joined today by Andrew Erickson and by Tom Strachan. We are recording later than usual, really for all three of us here as we sit here in the middle of not middle of late May. Now at this point, getting one step closer to the fantasy football season. We're talking some overvalued play players today. Ericson, how you doing?

[Andrew Erickson]

I'm doing good. I'm, I'm, I'm excited. We're getting Tom here from the future. It is tomorrow where Tom is recording, so that's a lot of fun. So I'm hoping that with Tom's ability to be a time traveler, we can get some great insight on some of these overvalued players because Tom exactly knows how it's going to play out.

[Ryan Warmley]

Tom, we, we appreciate you going through the difficulty of inventing time travel just to help us out.

[Tom Strachan]

You guys will not believe the crazy things that are going to happen to you in the five hours that have gone by since it hit midnight in Michael country till it hits midnight in your country.

[Ryan Warmley]

Fair warning for everybody who's watching on YouTube, given the time of day that we're recording this, it's right when the sun sets in front of my window so there is a chance I get blasted and get some sunburn here. Blinded by the light when we're recording later on in this episode, we'll see how quickly we get out of here. Like I said, we're talking about some overvalued players here for 2025. Quick reminder for everybody, all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found in at fantasypros.com rankings. Each of you pick six players here. There's no real designation as far as positions go or anything. Just kind of we want to get a couple of early round players. We want to get some mid round players. We have one kind of later round player each. Obviously it's hard to be overvalued when you're going that late, but maybe some sleepers that we're not necessarily buying into. Erickson, you went really wide receiver heavy, I think. Did you do all receivers or no one running back in the rest receivers?

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, I did mostly wide receivers. I did do the fantasy pros wide receiver notes. So the wide receiver numbers were kind of fresh in my mind and that's kind of where I settled here. So yeah, it did include at least one running back. Also, to be fair, Tom did beat me to the sheet and he took all the good running backs. So a lot of the running backs I actually will agree with when Tom breaks down why they're overvalued.

[Ryan Warmley]

Tom is definitely more running back heavy in his picks and he did get to the sheet first. Let's get us started with one of those receivers here, Erickson. And we're going to start off with the guys that are kind of, kind of these early round overvalued players. And the way we're defining that is just anybody who's in the top 36 overall of the current half PPR rankings, consensus rankings, that is. And again, fantasypros.com rankings if you want to follow along with those players.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, so my first guy is Amon Ra St. Brown, wide receiver for the Detroit Lions. My wide receiver rankings just got posted up on X and he is my wide receiver 9. And everybody hates me in the comments because I'm baiting the sun God, but that's just how I feel. So there's a couple reasons why I think that he's overvalued at his current ADP. So he's being drafted 8th overall. So that's where his ECR is. And when you look at some early season projections, I know I've used the fantasy pros ones, Mike Clay's projections, which are also very, very good from the industry standard. So his projections have him closer to 16th overall when you're looking at just flex rankings between running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. And I think there's a reason for that and it's because of the target. Competition in Detroit I think is increasing compared to last year. Last year we didn't know what Jameson Williams was going to be. We were. We weren't sure if he was like not a bust, but he showed out and he was really productive when he was, when he was healthy, when he wasn't suspended. And over the second half of the season, we saw Almond Ross St. Brown's target share dip from 27% to 23% over the final seven games as Jameson Williams and Sam Laporta were more involved in the offense, they were spreading the ball out a lot more than just focusing on the Sun God. And there's only one game really where St. Brown just completely dominated the targets over Jameson Williams, which was that 18 target game against Buffalo Bills in week 15. If you remove that from the equation, their target share is nearly identical in all the other games. You know, one week it's Jameson, the other week is Amara St. Brown. Now you can't just take away that one game. It happened. So I'm not trying to discredit Amon Ross St. Brown, but I'm just pointing out the fact that the targets I think are going to be much closer in 2025 than they were in 2024, especially when you consider it's a new offensive coordinator coming in. Will, we're so excited about finding that slot receiver for the Chicago Bears, but we're not thinking about what does that have to affect on the Lions offense in 2025. Is it as centered around the Sun God as it's been without Ben Johnson calling the shots as the oc? So those are some of the reasons why I just think that he's a little bit overvalued. Well, he still finishes a wide receiver, one most likely without any type of injury, but I think he might actually be more in the lower tier of wide receiver 10 to 12 as opposed to in that top eight overall players at receiver and running back.

[Ryan Warmley]

Tom, what do you think about this one? For me, I feel like. I feel like if I'm making Amon Ra my pick in the first round, I don't know that I'm feeling super great about it like just given like Ben Johnson not being there. Some of the targets of Ericsson's laying out, if he was like an early second round pick, I would still be like pretty thrilled about that I think. But I don't think he's going to get there in most drafts. How are you approaching St. Brown? Do you agree that he's overvalued right now?

[Tom Strachan]

I'm not really there. I think that I'm not against Amon Ra as much as Andrew and yourself. Maybe I'm more out on Jamo. Jameson Williams feels so much more volatile and the price you've got to pay for him like 35 picks later than Amanra, that just feels too expensive. Like I look at Jamo and for all that he closed the gap last year, he only had two games over a 22% target share. Meanwhile, you've got Amara, who had 10 games over 18 PPR points in 2024. His touchdowns have grown in each of his four seasons in the NFL. 10 the previous year, 12 last year. And while we don't want to count on touchdown production year to year, particularly when there's a new offensive coordinator, I just think it shows that his role is fairly established. He had over 60 receptions, more than Sam Laporter and JMO last year. Like there's just too much reliability in what we've seen from Amon Raf me to be fading him. I get what Andrew's saying, but I still not quite ready to feed him at this point.

[Ryan Warmley]

Erickson. The next eight names in the overall half PPR rankings after Amon Ra are Malik, Neighbors, Ash and Genti, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr. Derek Henry, Devon Achan, Brock Bowers and Christian McAffrey. Do you want any of those guys? Do you want all those players ahead of St. Brown or are there some that you would still take Amon Ra ahead of?

[Andrew Erickson]

I'd have to pull my exact rankings to give you the run. I mean I think that it's. Again you listed off the next eight guys. Yeah, I think that it's probably. I'm taking mostly all those guys over. I mean he's my wide receiver 9 like I said. So I'd have to look exactly at my rankings but for the most part, I mean look, I'm just not gonna draft. I'm on St. Brown this year and again he's a sun God. I could get totally burned and totally cooked by him as he's done year after year. But I just think that the price is more about last year, not projecting. I mean I think, I just think Jameson Williams is going to be a thing. Like this guy was a first round pick, he's fully healthy, the suspensions are all behind him and the oc. The first thing he says in the off season this year, breakout year for Jameson Williams and I'm thinking wait, didn't we just have this happen last year? So if he takes another step forward then I think that's going to eat into eat into the Sun God.

[Ryan Warmley]

So I mean I think it's also fair to just be worried in the sense of like Jared Goff has never been good when he didn't have an elite play caller and I think he is a better quarterback now than he was early on in his career. Like I'm not here to fade Goff, but it's just enough for me to say, well maybe I look elsewhere than the guy who's been his top target but may not even be his clear cut top target anymore. So I think it's a fair pick. Even though I am not surprised people strongly disagreed with you post.

[Andrew Erickson]

I mean people are always going to disagree when you're picking guys in the first round, right? But yeah, again not everyone's going to hit and obviously when guys get hurt they obviously don't live up to their adp.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah Tom, let's go to your first pick, a running back here.

[Tom Strachan]

Yeah, and it's Jonathan Taylor. A lot of this. It just comes back to overall confidence level in the Colts. Like this time last year I felt quite okay drafting Anthony Richardson, I felt quite okay drafting Josh Downs and I felt okay about the Colts offense in general and they were just a complete disappointment. Despite the fact that they had a very soft division. I think it wouldn't be surprising to see the division improve slightly this year. If that takes them out of more neutral scripts where they're able to run the ball and control things a bit, then that could be a slight thing on Jonathan Taylor this offense last year wasn't a good offense. 14th in run offense, DVOA 23rd in pass offense DVOA 42% of Jonathan Taylor Taylor's points came in three performances last year. Two of those three were in week 16 and 17. So if you had Jonathan Taylor and you made it to the semi finals or finals of any fantasy tournament, then you're in good stead. But I just don't think that you were making it there with Jonathan Taylor very often. He was RB of 14 or RB 14 or worse in 7 of 13 games last year. Currently being drafted as the RB 10. I just think that's too steep of a price to pay for him. Like when you look back at how he was actually performing for the vast majority of Last season weeks 1 to 13 ranked third among all running backs with 100 plus carries and stuffed run rate. Now not all of that is always on the running back, but it didn't feel overly impressive until he had those massive blow up weeks at the end. And look, I also just really like DJ Giddens in the draft, so there's just a number of factors but for me I've got Jonathan Taylor down at RB15 and if he fell a few spots I'd start to feel a lot more comfortable about it.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah, this is an interesting one. A lot of the names that you guys put into the sheet I am largely agreeing with. This is one where I'm not saying I'm above consensus on Taylor, but I think I'm comfortable with where he's going. Like if I can get him in in the mid to late second round. He's currently the 20th overall player so maybe he's a little high at running back as. But as far as the overall like names in that range, I think I'd be comfortable with that. Especially if I'm getting a really strong receiver like in the middle of round one. I think I'd be, I'd be okay with Taylor in round two. Erickson, I'm curious what you think about this one.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, so I'm more in line kind of. I have him ranked where ECR has him ranked. So I kind of agree with you Worm, where I'm comfortable taking him. But as Tom outlines the potential flaws, it just seems like there's a lot that could drag Jonathan Taylor down then for us to get. Oh, we're really excited about him. Like I think he goes similar to Bucky Irving. I know Derek debrow is really high on Bucky Irving. I mean we're excited about drafting Bucky Irving. Right. He's a second year guy going to take this massive leap. We don't care about Rashad White, but then Jonathan Taylor, it's. He's trying to hold on to what he could do. In this offense where we have concerns about the offense. Every other Colts wide receiver, you can get a cheap discount, but you don't really get a massive discount with Jonathan Taylor. Despite all the question marks about who this is going to be the starting quarterback, what's the offensive line going to look like now that they've traded or they got rid of half their interior and is now in Minnesota. I know we talked about this on the running back show. Is Jonathan Taylor maxed out at RB10? Is that his ceiling finished? Because we know he doesn't really catch passes. So that's an issue when it comes to half PPR and PPR formats and if the offense struggles or is in a below average scoring unit, well, where's the red zone opportunities for Jonathan Taylor? And so yes, I think that maybe he can finish where he's being drafted, but it feels like it's closer to his potential ceiling with, with all the issues that Tom outlined and that's kind of why I could see him being overvalued here. And so yeah, that's kind of my take on it, that that's fair.

[Ryan Warmley]

I think I just don't really like the back half of the second round this year very much. So that's why I'm comfortable with Taylor being but I'm like looking at the names he's sandwiched between Jacobs and Bucky Irving. I don't think that's unreasonable. I do like lad McConkey who's right after those guys. Then there's like Trey McBride. I don't know if I'm taking a tight end early. If it's not Brock Bowers, Josh Allen, I'm not going to be the guy taking the QB in the second round. Kyron Williams we're going to talk about later on the show. Lamar, like JSN is a mid second round pick. I like him. You know there's just a lot of names where I'm like you know what, I'm okay just like taking a swing on Jonathan Taylor here. What route? Not where is he ranked Tom amongst running backs for you, but where in the draft are you comfortable taking Taylor in terms of like late second, early third? Is that what you're hoping to do?

[Tom Strachan]

Yeah. So if I can get him on the two free turn, like if I could pair him with Jamar Chase or you know that sort of 102 slot, I think that's completely fine if I'm getting him there because as you say as you start to get towards the third round there's quite a few more question marks and perhaps there was last year if I could pair him, you know, again like with CD Lamb, I'd be okay with it. I just need to feel really secure in my first round pick and towards the back half of first rounds of a minute. There are some guys that we have question marks. I'm okay with them on Rain Brown, but you look at Malik Neighbors and you're talking about QB issues. You talk about Ashton Genti and we are still talking about a rookie PUK and a cooler and you can question Matthew Stafford. So really I'd like to push him up to those first round talents that I feel a bit more secure about. Out to be willing to take a chance on Jonathan Taylor because of reasons I mentioned.

[Ryan Warmley]

One guy that we are not saying is overvalued today is Nico Collins. And if you want a chance to win a signed Nico Collins Texans jersey for free courtesy of our [e-mail] all you have to do is subscribe to The Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now, drop a comment below on any video and that is it. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel so make sure to turn on those notifications so you can know when new videos are up and to claim your Prize we've got one more each of the early round overvalued players. Erickson, who you got?

[Andrew Erickson]

Terry Kill, wide receiver for the Miami Dolphins. I want no part of Tyreek Hill. I think that he is vastly overrated here as a top 36 overall player. Last year he was wide receiver 33 points per game and when he, when Tua was healthy he was still just wide receiver 18 in points per game. So we saw the sharp decline in terms of efficiency. His yards per out run plummeted to 1.75 which was nearly half of his 2023 mark. Now he was coming off a monster number. So even 1.75 is really not that bad. But just compared to what he was doing before in this offense, it's a pretty steep, it's eye opening of how badly things got for him even when Tua was still in the games that Tua played. Because again, we all know that Miami had a ton of quarterback issues and Jalen Waddle also suffered a lot of lack of production because of it. But I just think there's so many red flags. Receivers I don't think get better with age. We saw this with Cooper cup, right? He starts to fall off a little bit. Michael Thomas, he starts to fall off a little bit now those guys a little bit more injury related but still Tyree Kill, a guy that's always relied on. I'm the fastest guy on the field. Well, if he's starting to lose a step here or there, I think that starts to really matter. He's going to be 31 years, 31 years old this year. We've already seen some of the decline when it comes to the efficiency numbers. We had him dealing with this wrist injury all last year. Is that going to have a lingering effect on him as he goes into 2025? And then you have where does he stand in Miami's future plans? Like what is Miami doing? Is Miami a potential dumpster fire this year on offense? Where is Tarek Hill even on the roster now? That's ultimately going to be the reason why we get cooked here because Terry Hill is going to go back to the Chiefs and he's going to be amazing and that's why he's going to be a hit. But right now drafting him as a top 36 overall player. I just want no part of drafting Tyreek Hill.

[Ryan Warmley]

He wasn't going in the the, you know, as late as he is now a year ago. But everything you just laid out is everything I said a year ago about why I was fading. Tyree Kill, you know, into his 30s now, a guy who relies on speed. I'm not confident to a staying healthy. And I know it wasn't entirely Hill's fault that, that I ended up being kind of correct on fading him, but it was correct and a lot of those same reasons still exist. I mean he had, he had 130 yards in week one. Last year was his best week of the entire season from week two on. He only topped 100 receiving yards once last year like it was not. And again, quarterback issues of course, wrist issues, of course. But he, you don't get healthier with age, you don't get faster with age. And the quarterback staying healthy is going to be a concern as long as Tua is the starting quarterback, as disappointing as that is. So this, this might be the one I, I most agree with either of you on this entire episode. I could not be more in lockstep with you. Erickson on Terry. There is no chance I'll be drafting him in any third round this year. Tom, what do you think?

[Tom Strachan]

I'm right there with you guys. This was such an easy one because the volume just wasn't there. Last year you talked about the yardage wasn't there, but he only had two games where he had more than seven receptions. Tyree Kill used to earn targets at such a high rate. The Dolphins don't seem to need him in the same way that they used to. Maybe that changes if John Smith gets traded and all of a sudden have that check down outlet that they seem to use Johnny Smith for so much last year. But his yards per reception last year was only the second time it's been below 12 in his entire career. His yards after the catch per reception was by far a career worst at 3.6 during lowest touchdown output of his career. And I just think that what we're seeing is a wide receiver in decline like Andrew said. Dwayne McFarland of Fantasy Life has done some fantastic research into wide receivers going off the cliff edge at age 31. And I just think that Tyree Kill is not going to be the same guy we ever saw him be a couple of years ago. And for me I've got him down right around player 35, I think in my rankings and I could really see myself dropping him more and bringing Jalen Waddle up.

[Ryan Warmley]

I'm looking at some of these other receiver names that are currently ranked after tyree kill. Terry McLaren, I would rather have him. Garrett Wilson, I'd rather have him. Devonte Adams. I would rather have him even getting further down. I might rather just take the upside shot of Marvin Harrison Jr. Than Tyreek Hill even coming off of last year. Like I, I just, I will not be drafting Tyreek unless his price goes way down. I think just based on the name value, that's not going to happen.

[Andrew Erickson]

Well, do you, would you rather have him or Jaylen Waddle?

[Ryan Warmley]

I would rather have have Waddle. I mean particularly at the cost it will take to get him.

[Andrew Erickson]

But I, I, I mean like imagine if just fall, if Hill falls and then you're looking at the board, it's Hill and Waddle as the top two guys. Who are you going to click?

[Ryan Warmley]

I, I think I will be ranking Tyreek higher than Waddle in my.

[Andrew Erickson]

That's not what I asked you. Who are you going to click, Worm? Who are you going to click?

[Ryan Warmley]

I would probably click Waddle, honestly.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yes.

[Ryan Warmley]

And I'm willing to plant my flag on that take. Like I think Waddle will be better than Hill this season.

[Tom Strachan]

The line for me, when I was looking, how far, if I was taking ADP out of it, how far would I drop Hill? It comes at Jameson Williams, right between Devonta Smith and Jameson Williams. That's the volatility that I think that we're going to end up on and that's the kind of headache that and right now I'm just in a holding pattern and just kind of ignoring it because the ADP is still high. But any reason I have to drop him and it'll be plummeting.

[Ryan Warmley]

We, we agree too emphatically on this. So I'm sure we're going to get burned. But we, we are definitely all in lockstep on Tyree Kill Tom, who's your last early round overvalued player?

[Tom Strachan]

Yeah, and it's Kyron Williams and I take no joy in this because Kyron Williams, last year when people were fading him, I was very much in on him. It's the second straight year the Rams drafted a rookie, which is probably a smart thing to be doing, investing draft capital in a position. But it's also not a ringing endorsement on Karen Williams. Last year he averaged 81 Russian yards per game in 2024. That was fourth among running backs. But he also fumbled the ball three times, ranked 35th in Duke rate amongst running backs with 100 plus carries. And I think what we're going to see is a slight shift away from the running game with the addition of Devonte Adams. Like Pukinakua, for all his brilliance, isn't a great touchdown scorer. He's only combined across the last two seasons to score nine touchdowns. Cooper Cup's regression was massively clear, whereas devonte Adams is still a really good red zone player. I think that we're going to see some excellent connection between him and Matthew Stafford and if that digs into Kyron Williams touchdown upside, then Karen Williams just can't really afford that. Like Stafford wasn't a great fantasy option last year because he wasn't throwing touchdowns. He only threw more than one touchdown. I think failed to throw for more than one touchdown in 10 of his 16 games and I think the Rams want to get that passing game going more. And if that dings cut Kyron at the same time that we've got these two young players behind him and he's also slightly inefficient, I just can't build myself an argument on why I should be drafting Karen Williams as he slips into what we know is the running back dead zone, which looks more dead this year than it did last year.

[Ryan Warmley]

The only reason I'm afraid to fade Kyron Williams is because I faded him a year ago and it burned me. And I am just emotionally not ready to go through that again. But I agree with this pick and I was sitting here a year ago saying I'm not taking Kyra Williams where he's going and it's going a little later this year, but still, you know, hi. And I find myself thinking all the things I did a year ago except for I had this year where it burned me. So Erickson, what do you make of Kyron Williams?

[Andrew Erickson]

Worm the thing is, Tom is a person that's coming to the table saying he drafted Kyron last year and he's like, no, like the ride is over the because I faded Kyren too and I was totally wrong. But this year, no, now even the supporters of Kyron are now fading Kyron Williams. So I think that's a good thing to bring up because I think the argument is just better and stronger this year. Now there's two potential rookie running backs that are two running backs behind Kyron that we could see potentially taking on a larger role. A lot of the coach speak this offseason has been about Sean McVay duplicating what Liam Cohen did in Tampa Bay where they were using up to three running backs in games. It wasn't just one guy. I know we've also made the argument about fading Saquon Barkley when it comes to the volume and touches that he saw last year. Well, right behind him was Kyron Williams So basically he was second in touches in second inter. He was actually first in RB snapshare. But when you look at the running backs, that face planted the biggest in 2024. Three of those guys were Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne, Rashad White. What do they all have in common? They ranked 1, 2 and 3 in terms of total touches the year before. So just chasing the high of that volume monster. And when Tom pointed out the efficiency wasn't there for him last year, like he showed signs of, he's not breaking as many tackles, he's not getting as many yards after contact. You know who he actually looked like a lot when it came to his efficiency as a rusher? Naji Harris. That's what he looked like a lot. When you just look at some of those advanced metrics and nobody is staking their claim for you got to get Naji Harris. He's going to be a great running back that you're going to build your offense around. So I think that Kyron projects again. We like him because of the projection. If you look at some of the projections on the site, he's 10th in projection. So that's why I see you're afraid where I'm just like, oh man, like what a shot of gray just does it again. He just gives him all the touches. But if he doesn't, then Kyron is going to be a bust and he's going to kill your lineup. So I'm with Tom here much, much lower on Kyron. I know it feels like Groundhog Day, just doing the same thing over and over again. But I think this time it's going to work out.

[Ryan Warmley]

Go to our mid round mistakes. This is kind of guys that are rounds four to eight overall. So that's roughly the range we're looking for here. Erickson, who do you think is overvalued in this range?

[Andrew Erickson]

I'm gonna go with DJ Moore, wide receiver for the Chicago Bears last year. I don't want to get. I don't need to get too in the weeds with it because we know the Bears offense was really dysfunctional. But he was wide receiver 16 overall wide receiver 32 in points per game. Really buoyed by a lot of that volume, especially at the end of the year where he took on this very low average depth of target was basically the bubble screen K getting a ton of receptions, but not really much yardage. Again, career low yards per route run, 25% bust rate. That tied for the third worst among wide receivers that finished inside the top 24. And I have legitimate questions about how he fits into this new offense with Ben Johnson. So he is right now drafted as the Bears wide receiver one. But I just think that the value proposition of just betting on, yep, DJ Moore is going to continue to be the wide receiver one when I don't think it's, I don't think it's a going crazy saying that. Is Digimore like a true alpha number one wide receiver. I don't really think I would describe that as his game. Like he's a good, very good wide receiver and he popped in a big way with Justin Fields. But a lot of that in that season was him having a couple monster games here and there, creating yards after the catch, taking advantage of bad defenses and yes, he can be a productive player. So I'm not ready to call DJ Moore a total bust, which is why I felt he was more overvalued because when I look at the Bears roster I feel like I like the value propositions on a Roma Dun, on a Luther Burton just much later in the draft betting on, well, what if Ben Johnson decides no, this is the guy I want to build my offense through. When you look at DJ Moore outside that wide receiver six finish in 2023, he's never finished inside the top 15 wide receivers in any other season that he's played and been healthy for. So if I fade him, the worst thing is probably okay, he'll be a top 15 or he'll be right at the cusp of of mid range fantasy wide receiver too. Like I'm okay skipping on that. Whereas if I'm right about Odunze or Luther Burden hitting as the new wide receiver one in this offense, well that's going to be a league winning pick versus DJ Moore where I feel like maybe at best like I'm hitting a double.

[Ryan Warmley]

I feel like for a guy who has not been worse than wide receiver 22 in any year since his rookie season in 2018 that the floor is low for D.J. moore despite the fact that he has had a very high floor in the past. Now a lot of that is not missing games obviously that's overall finish, not weekly per game finish. That number and I think to that point the fact that last year he did not have 100 catches, he did not reach a thousand yards, excuse me. And he only had six receiving touchdowns. His yards per reception was under 10 for the first time in his career and he still finished wide receiver 16. I think that says more about the state of the position last season than it does about DJ Moore. You know, being a top 16 receiver in terms of fantasy value he gave to your team and I, and I agree with you. I think there's like every chance, like I'm huge on Roma Dunes. I think there's every chance he could, you know, take a step forward and be the alpha in this offense. I like Luther Burden. Like we, you know, we see it all the time when there's a new coach in town, if it's not a guy that they drafted, those guys tend to fall off whether we agree with that decision or not. I'm surprised DJ Moore is and again this is kind of weird to say for a guy who has had a high floor in terms of his overall finishes for several years, but I'm surprised that he is even ranked as high as he is, truthfully.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, I also think too the like the chemistry of K. Williams just like never like it seemed like what DJ Moore was an advocate for Fields. Like that seemed like that was a legitimate thing and that's when he was better. He was better with Justin Fields than Caleb Williams. Again Caleb was a rookie and is a little bit different. But yeah, like is that chemistry there? Like who's to say Caleb's not going to lean more on A Dunes? They lean more on Luther Burton. So I just for those reasons, like I just, I like the value more with these other Bears players. Tom, I'm not sure how you feel.

[Tom Strachan]

Yeah, I'm kind of neutral on DJ Moore. I think the price, you know, on underdog basketball he's going at wide receiver 23, which kind of feels quite palatable to me for the reasons that Worm laid out. You know, this is a guy who doesn't tend to fail spectacularly. But the point you make, Andrew, about the lack of chemistry with Caleb Williams definitely feels noteworthy. Like it felt like Keenan Allen had slightly better chemistry last year and he was getting those kind of layups to the slot that made it so much easier for Keenan Allen to produce down the stretch. Roma Dunzee didn't do much, but obviously the potential is massive there. Louver Burden quite volatile as a prospect and I do like Colston Loveland. He was my tight end one going into the draft. But I still think that what we get out of DJ Moore is probably a player who's going to be playing in two wide receiver sets and if he's on the field, I think that he's got a good chance to still earn enough targets to be relevant. I mean last year he finished ninth among wide receiver in targets and he's in a range of a minute between Travis Hunter and Ted McMillan where I think it's quite easy to say, okay, can I see this veteran DJ Moore having a better season than Travis Hunter and Ted McMillan. It's quite easy to tell yourself a story there that the veteran ends up doing better. If you want to shoot for upside, then by all means go with the rookies who undeniably have that unknown. But I think I'm just kind of okay with it. He's not a player that I'd want on every roster I draft this off season, but he's not a player that I'm marking way down in my rankings so that I don't see him.

[Ryan Warmley]

Tom, let's stick with you for your next pick.

[Tom Strachan]

Yes, my next pick is another running back. I mean, it's probably not surprise for somebody who's a big 0rb guy, but James Cook is somebody that I'm really struggling with. You know, the contract issues continuing to linger. This Bill's off. Bill's team that went into the off season and was so proactive in re signing players who they wanted to get onto better contracts. Cook, coming off leading all players in touchdowns scored last year, 17, like that should be a player that a team really wants to sign. But it just doesn't seem like the Bills are willing to give him the kind of money that he wants. He's been quite vocal about wanting a good high end deal. And Cook that season, it feels like quite an outlier. You know, he only had nine touchdowns in the previous two seasons combined. He was massively reliant on those touchdowns for his scoring. Last year, 39% of his fantasy points came from touchdowns. He ranked 24th among running backs in total scrimmage yards. So there were games where if he wasn't getting a touchdown, then he wasn't getting you the kind of points that you needed to be able to compete with the top end running backs. And this offense, the Bills, they just nullify any kind of star factor outside of Josh Allen. Josh Allen is a superstar. And then trying to bet on any of the players in the Bills offense to have consistent fantasy output, it's really difficult because they'll just be weeks where it's one guy, weeks where it's another. And last year, James Cook got their three touchdowns and that's not something that I necessarily want to bet on this year.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah, Cook and Erickson. I'm curious what you think about this. Like, I. I'm not at the point in my fantasy playing career where I am just blanket auto out on anybody who is, like, holding out during the off season. And obviously there's still time for the contract stuff to get resolved. It's still only May, but I'm not far off from that thought. I just feel like it always burns you. There's always a slow start, and I just don't want to, especially this early in the draft where you need to be drafting Cook coming off of his year last year. I just don't want to be in that business of a guy who, especially.

[Tom Strachan]

Running backs start like that.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah, I, I, I, to me, that's, it's, it's very easy to fade given that contract situation, which, again, Erickson, there is still time for that to get fixed.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, but it's still kind of in the back of your head where last year he shows out, he scores all these touchdowns, and then he wants to get paid. He's not going to score 19 touchdowns again like that. That's, that's very unlikely that he's going to score that many now. It's more like it's gonna hit that average. So if he plays the full season, he'll probably end up being somewhere in the double digits. Eight to nine to 10 touchdowns, I think is probably a safe bet for him to make kind of breaking the middle between the last two seasons. And so I'm like, more in line with James Cook in terms of ecr. But I would agree with, I don't necessarily love taking the running backs in this kind of range. Like, I have question marks like Breeze hall kind of goes in that range again. Kyren goes in there. I would take James Cook over Kyron. So I'm not like, that far out on Cook where I'd be teaching Kyron over him. But I think that the usage point is a really good thing to bring up where he's not getting, he was not getting there because of the usage. I mean, average 14.1 touches per game. He's playing under 50 of the snaps, RB26, and expected fantasy points per game. And we know the touches are probably going to come down. Like, he's probably just not going to score that many. So I think it's a case of, you should have drafted James Cook last year, and if you didn't, don't get caught. Don't, don't chase it. Right? Just be like, all right, I lost. Take the L and kind of move on and just like, hey, we got to figure out who could be this year's James Cook. I think that's kind of like the lesson here. It's like don't chase James Cook's season from last year. Try to find the who can be this year's James who can cash in on this massive touchdown regression. So, but I will say with Cook. So we have a 28 game sample size of him in Joe Brady's offense basically since he took over, I think at the second half. I don't know, it's like two and a half years ago somewhere along those lines. But average 15.5 fantasy points per game since that point over that 28 games and that's good low end fantasy RB1 production. So I think if he stays healthy, shows up, he's gonna end up being a low end RB1. Not the worst pick, but I think that we could do better.

[Ryan Warmley]

These aren't the only three running back names in this tier, but I want to ask about these three. Erickson, who would you rather draft? And I'm gonna ask you the same question. Tom, after Erickson, who would you rather draft out of Breeze? Hall, James Cook, Kenneth Walker.

[Andrew Erickson]

My, my for. Actually, I want Tom to go first.

[Ryan Warmley]

Okay, Tom, you can go first.

[Tom Strachan]

Yeah, so I mean, I've got Breece hall as my 32nd player overall, James Cook 41st and then Kenneth Walker down at 45. So it's Breece hall for me. I don't feel particularly good about any of those guys and I generally just prefer the wide receivers in this tier. But yeah, I mean, we'll get to one of those in a bit.

[Ryan Warmley]

Erickson, if it helps, I'll go before you. I would go Breeze, hall, then Walker, then Cook for me.

[Andrew Erickson]

So I have it ranked Hall, Cook and then Walker. So the same as Tom. But I don't know if it's. DBRO is in my ear about Ken.

[Ryan Warmley]

Walker, but that's exactly why I said Walker.

[Andrew Erickson]

But every time I look at Walker, I'm like, man, I just, I know that. I just feel so confident that when he is healthy playing in this offense for Seattle, that he's going to be a smash. I feel very confident about that with Ken Walker, so.

[Ryan Warmley]

Well, let me ask you this. DJ Moore, Kenneth Walker, because they are very close in the overall rankings, I would take. I definitely agree with that too. I just want to make sure. All right, let's go to Erickson, your next receiver.

[Andrew Erickson]

I know Tom's gonna hate this one, so that's why I had to make sure I put on the list. So Devonta Smith for me, for the wide receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles and this one, I'm all. I feel like I have to. I'M bringing it up every year with devonte Smith where I want to recognize that he's really good real life wide receiver. But is he always the best fantasy option? So last year eight games with both A.J. brown and Dallas Goddard active in the lineup, he averaged 8.3 fantasy points per game. That was wide receiver 51 basically looking at the season long averages. But when one of those guys missed time, he averaged almost 15 points per game which was fantasy wide receiver one. So for me with Devonta Smith it's really about what your roster looks like and because when those other guys are healthy like he doesn't produce, he's not putting up numbers where you can even feel good about putting him in your starting lineup. But the upside is there. So when a guy misses time, okay, he smashes. But I'm not so sure that where I have to draft Vonta Smith I want to make a bet on injury contingency where okay, now I can just bank on one of these guys missing and then I'm locked and loaded to go. So I recognize and that's why I put Smith in here as this overvalued conversation, not as a bust because just look at his career there. There's no bus finishes in his career. Like he's been a really solid receiver in fantasy since he entered the NFL. But I get, I get concerned when he starts to steam up as a wide receiver too with two other strong target earners on his team and an offense that really likes to run the football a ton. So those are the reasons why Devonta Smith, I just am hesitant to draft where he ends up going in a lot of these fantasy drafts.

[Ryan Warmley]

There's also a difference. I just want to say because you mentioned the kind of the bust factor, this episode isn't busts. Right. That can be kind of part of the conversation, but it's overvalued players and some players who are high floor can still be overvalued because we are not confident in the ceiling or because we think the floor isn't as high as as we saw. It doesn't necessarily mean they're going to be a bust and completely tank your season. It's just they're not going to be worth it where they're going.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, so that's kind of the point I'm just trying to make with Smith is I think that again at the end of the day he's probably going to finishing somewhere in the 30, 35 range at worst. But if these guys don't miss games after they missed games last year, then he's not going to be. He's going to be a dead part of your roster that you can't start confidently. And I think in best ball it's a little bit different. I think that he's a better best ball option because of the upside they can offer on a week to week basis if one of these guys misses. But there's a lot of guys, a lot of receivers that I think I can get still later where you're getting some similar contingency upside if there's an injury that just don't cost as much.

[Ryan Warmley]

What do you think about this one, Tom? I know Erickson kind of predicted you were not going to agree with it.

[Tom Strachan]

Yeah, I mean I love the Slim Reaper. Like he's such a fun player to watch, such a good receiver and I just I don't want to feed Devonta Smith like last year was the first season in the NFL ways had less than 100 targets. His stats have been pretty much stable year to year. Yards per target, yards per game, touchdowns year to year, it's all fairly consistent. And wide receiver 29 on underdog ADP. I know at the minute he is like that feels fine to me. He's at 8:20 plus point games over the last two years. And I think it kind of goes back to what Eriksen touched on about how your roster looks. If you're drafting Devonta Smith as your wide receiver two that's probably a lot more of a hard sell, but if I can get him as my wide receiver 3 or even my wide receiver 4, then I'd feel a lot more comfortable with it. I.

[Ryan Warmley]

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[Clayton English]

Clayton English, I'm Greg Lott and this is season two of the War on Drugs podcast. We are back in a big way.

[Tom Strachan]

In a very big way.

[Andrew Erickson]

Real people, real perspectives.

[Clayton English]

This is kind of star studded a little bit, man. We got Ricky Williams, NFL player, Heisman Trophy winner.

[Tom Strachan]

It's just the compassionate choice to allow players all reasonable means to care for themselves.

[Andrew Erickson]

Music stars Marcus King, John Osborne from Brothers Osborne.

[Ryan Warmley]

We have this misunderstanding of what this.

[Andrew Erickson]

Quote unquote drug thing is.

[Clayton English]

Benny the Butcher, Brent Smith from Shinedown got Be real from Cypress Hill NHL enforcer Riley Cote, Marine Corps vet, MMA fighter Liz Caramouche.

[Ryan Warmley]

What we're doing now isn't working and we need to change that things. Stories matter and it brings a face to them.

[Clayton English]

It makes it real.

[Andrew Erickson]

It really does. It makes it real.

[Clayton English]

Listen to new episodes of the War on Drugs podcast Season 2 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast. And to hear episodes one week early and ad free with exclusive content, subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcast.

[Ryan Warmley]

Tom let's go to your next overvalued.

[Tom Strachan]

Player and it hurts me to do this, but it's Debo Samuel, a guy that I was ahead of consensus on all last year. I thought he was going to get the perfect run out when Brandon IU got injured. It was all set up for him and he flopped in a massive way. Like he just looked completely out of juice. He had the lowest receiving success rate of his career by far. He'd never been below 47% previously. 40 last year Russian yards before contact that dropped from 3.8 yards down to 1.6. Now obviously he's on a new offense with the Commanders, they didn't spend that much on him. It was only a fifth round pick. He's got no guaranteed money going beyond this year. He ranked 77th in targets per outrun, so he wasn't really earning them at a high rate. And that was even with Brandon Ayukov field. He was 51st among wide receivers in first read rate. The 49ers seem to know that he didn't quite have it last year and Brock Purdy seemed to know he didn't quite have it last year and just wasn't targeting that much. And I think that this offense with the Commanders is going to continue to run through Terry McLaurin. I've got much more faith in him and I just don't really want to be drafting Deebo Samuel. Like I'd probably put him around about round seven before I'd feel comfortable on him.

[Ryan Warmley]

This is another very strong agree by me. I promise you if he stays in this range, I will be ranking him below consensus come end of end of August. I think this is too high and pretty much for all the reasons you just said. I don't need to to rehash them. I, I really strongly agree with Tom on this one. Erickson, where do you have Debo Samuel ranked?

[Andrew Erickson]

Very, very low. So someone that I'm also, I'm also not interested in Debo Samuel. It's fun. You know, if you look at the fantasy Pro's ECR rankings, it has a cool tool and filter where you can see how often a player beat their weekly projection. He beat. So in 15 games that he played with the projection for, he had fantasy points. He went over his projection three times. 20 of his games. He exceeded expectations before the game started. So yes, I, there's no sugar coating. He was terrible last year. I know that he did deal with a bunch of injuries. I know that he had had the, I believe it was pneumonia that he was dealing with. So, so I think that those backing Debo will come with to the argument with, well, you know, he's banged up. He was, he was playing through illness. It's like okay. And Terry McLaurin is also mentioned. The holdout Terry McLaurin is currently also like holding out for a new contract. So if there's an issue where Terry McClure gets banged up or something and he pulls his hamstring and then Debo's the default number one. I could see a scenario where this maybe looks bad in the beginning of the season. But Worm, I'm telling you right now, the first guy I'm putting on the trade high show sell high after Debo scores an 80 yard touchdown is deep. Like he's going, he's the number one guy. I'm going right to the sheet the minute that he scores a long touchdown with his yards up to the catch in week one. And he's going to be a sell high for me because we've seen like he doesn't last. He's not going to play all 17 games. He gets hurt all the time. He's 29 years old and I guess I'm not, not as optimistic about Cliff Kingsbury just using him in this super dynamic way where didn't Cliff Kingsbury have Rondell Moore for like the longest time? And we never got any creative usage out of that type of explosive player like running back, wide receiver hybrid. I mean it took us long enough to get McLaurin away from just lining up on one side of the field. It took us like the entire season. So just projecting Debo to have this crazy unique or running back wide receiver role I think is just being a little bit too optimistic. So even if Debo makes me look bad for the first month while he's healthy, I think you're going to be better off when the season comes down to the fantasy playoffs.

[Ryan Warmley]

That, that's the exact point I was going to make when I first saw this name on the sheet is I don't like he. Outside of the 2021 season, Diva Samuel has never had 900 receiving yards in a season. He's never had double digit receiving touchdowns. The elite awesome seasons have been driven by these rushing touchdowns and just the rushing usage. In no way, shape or form do I trust the Commanders to do that. I don't. I still don't think Cliff Kingsbury is, is a very good offensive coach. I think he got an incredible rookie quarterback who covered up a lot of of Kingsbury's warts. Like I don't, I, I follow a lot of commanders fans on, on Twitter and a lot of them were talking about like, you know, oh, like you know, we really need him to not get poached for a head coaching job. And I was like, I think you could do a lot better than Cliff Kingsbury. You should hope that somebody, you know, saves you from that mess and allows you to make a better hire. Because I like, I don't think he's the worst offensive coordinator in football, but I don't think he's very good. I don't think his stuff is very inspired or creative. And Debo Samuel, I Think to be an awesome fantasy asset needs an inspired and creative play caller and I just don't think that even setting aside injury risks in another year older and you know, coming off this down season. So yeah, I am not in on Samuel in Washington and I'm not in on him in fantasy Erickson next mid.

[Andrew Erickson]

Round mistake Jordan Addison, wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings. Looking at Addison's finish last year, so he scored eight of his nine touchdowns after week nine. So before that when he wasn't scoring any touchdowns, he was under nine fantasy points per game. So well outside the wide receiver three range. When you look at his target share in the Vikings offense, even when TJ Hawkinson wasn't part of the offense, he never topped a 20 target share on the year I was expecting going back to see, okay, his target share was probably north of 20% start the year with no Hawkinson. That wasn't the case. Like his target share never crested more than 20% when all these guys were healthy at any point and now you're throwing in a brand new quarterback again. We expect the system in Minnesota to be great. It's always been great with the current head coach in place there, but it's still a projection and I guess for me, I also think the Vikings, I think they want to run the ball a little bit more just given the fact that they're having a brand new quarterback who's never played in the NFL coming off a major knee injury and they just bolstered up that interior offensive line. They traded for Jordan Mason. They have Aaron Jones. Why not give your young quarterback a really solid run game, play bully ball a little bit to make his life easier, not put everything on his shoulders. So if that means Addison is now the wide receiver, the Basically, you know, 2A or 2B option in the passing game with an offense that isn't leading the league in terms of passing yards and pass rate over expectation. Well, that I don't think he's going to pay off, especially with all of his, both of his seasons he scored a ton of touchdowns. So you have to win with a lot of efficiency with Jordan Addison. Not to say he's a bad player. I don't, I don't think that he's a bad player. But just looking at the optics of the situation, I could see him underwhelming and for him to sneak into the top 24 three years in a row also considering that he may get suspended at some point for the DUI that happened in 2024. So that still hasn't Been totally finalized. But I think at this point there's more information, there's more, you know, smoke around Addison probably missing games this year than Rashi Rice. So that's something to also kind of pay attention to where if he's going to miss one to three games, it's another reason why, like, I don't feel like dealing with potentially a number three target on a, with a brand new quarterback. So for me, that's why Addison is someone that I think is a little bit overvalued.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah, Addison is really interesting because I, I do kind of think, you know, so the last two years he's been around 100 targets, around 65ish reception receptions, and around 900 receiving yards. I think all three of those are very possible to repeat again for a third straight year. But it's the touchdowns at 10 in year one, nine in year two. That's where he has to be really efficient again. Like you said, Erickson, he also had a rushing touchdown last year, so a total of 10 in both years. And that, that's where you get a little worried. We talked last year a lot. I remember Erickson. I think mostly when we're talking about the Bears situation, but about how difficult it is for rookie quarterbacks to support more than one great fantasy receiver. And you say, you know, it's a new quarterback coming in, it essentially is a rookie quarterback coming in. Even though he's had a year to just like sit with the system and, you know, get to know Kevin o' Connell and these guys, it's essentially a rookie quarterback at the NFL level. Those guys often struggle to have multiple high level fantasy receivers. We know Justin Jefferson is not going to be the guy who gets short shrift here. So I think this is a really fair one. Again, I kind of think the targets, receptions and yards will be largely in the same range. I do think it'll be a lot of spike weeks and then a lot of nothing weeks to get to that point. And then it's just going to come down to the touchdowns again. Tom, what do you make of Addison?

[Tom Strachan]

Yeah, I think you're both making really good points on this one because there's definitely a concern about what this offense is going to look like. I've got plenty of faith in Kevin O' Connell that he's going to get JJ McCarthy playing to a decent level. And I've got plenty of faith that Jordan Addison's stats aren't going to completely plummet. The 19 touchdowns in two seasons touchdown production might not be sticky. We've talked about that already and there's plenty written about that. But 19 touchdowns in two seasons is quite an impressive number. Like that's, that's the 12th most through two seasons, all time. Like Jamar Chase was only at 22, A.J. brown was only at 19, A.J. green was at 18, Julio Jones was at 18. Like, these numbers are really strong and really impressive. If that regresses, can he make up for it in other ways? I'm not too sure, but I'm quite comfortable with Jordan Addison at this range in the draft. I just, I don't really feel like I completely want to fade him. And part of that kind of comes down to the players who come after him. It feels like this is like the edge of a tear break where the wide receivers coming after him, guys like Chris Olave, Juwan Jennings, George Pickens, Jacoby Myers, like, it feels like there are a lot of question marks around those players and the offenses they're on, maybe. And mixing in a guy like Jordan Addison, when I've got a fair idea of what he is as a player, what Vikings are or could be as an offense, I'm okay with it. I don't really lean one way or viva strongly.

[Ryan Warmley]

The other thing I want to just quickly mention on Addison is I have this image in my head of him getting a lot of kind of big play for a lot of those touchdowns specifically. And they drafted Ty Felton on day two and that like I, I think that was a bit of a reach on Felton even though he's a terp. But that is his best skill set is, is the deep plays in my opinion. So if those, some of those longer touchdowns and the big play touchdowns go to Felton, you know that, that will hurt Addison in that regard as even aside from a healthy Justin Jefferson and.

[Andrew Erickson]

T.J. hawkins, the Vikings too. And I only remember this because of all my Aaron Jones anytime touchdown bets I made, they were one of the worst running, like trying to convert at the goal line with the running backs. They're one of the worst teams like offensively last year. So what happens when they didn't score a rushing touchdown? Oh, Jordan Addison finds the end zone yet again. So if Jordan Mason comes in and ends up being that banger in between the tackles. 3rd and 1. Let's punch it in. Okay. Then you're seeing where the touchdowns aren't there for Addison in year three.

[Ryan Warmley]

Addison is one of those guys where I just like the player. So like I do think I will have him in some leagues and I honestly, if he's healthy. I feel similarly about the next guy who Tom just alluded to in his last bit talking about Addison his final mid round mistake here. I feel similarly where I just like the player and I I really want him to to be good and get the usage I want to see assuming he's healthy. Healthy.

[Tom Strachan]

Yeah. I mean it's Crystal Lavey and definitely I would love to see a healthy and emphatic season from Crystal Lavi, but I just largely want to avoid the Saints this year. Much like we kind of talked about with the Colts and my Jonathan Taylor pick, this is a team the stink on the Saints is so bad. Like last year the offensive line ranked 22nd in PFF grades and I feel like it's going to be quite difficult for them to rate better. The quarterback situation is a complete nightmare and I I look back at the early part of the season when both Chris Olave and Rashid Shahid were healthy and it was all Rashid Shahid like Shahid had a 30% target share compared to Olave's 21%. Shahid was the wide receiver 10 in that period compared to Olave being the wide receiver 46 now. Shahid's production was quite fluky. He ranked really highly in air yards per target, much higher in actual converted, and realized a yards per target than most of the guys who rank high in that metric. So perhaps that comes back a little bit, but I think Rashid Shahid is the real deal. I also like Javon Johnson. I think that Alvin Kamara is going to see a ton of the ball and I just don't think that Chris Olave in this iteration of the Saints offense is going to have enough upside where I want him on my team. I just think that he's going to be a floor player in 2025.

[Ryan Warmley]

Erickson, what do you think of Alave? He's currently overall 60th in our half PPR rankings and wide receiver 29. Is that too high, too low or just right?

[Andrew Erickson]

I think it is way too high. I agree that Chris Olave is massively overvalued. I think at the point about Rashid Shahid is not being talked about enough. Rashid Shahid has not only out produced Chris Olave last year, but it's been a trend like going back to since they've been playing together last couple years. Their receiving yards per game aren't that far off. It's only a lava by about 10 yards. So Rashidji has been very underrated player and was looked like he was going to break out all over the place before he got hurt last year. So from an upside bet. Right. Because we always want to try to draft for upside, especially when it comes to some of these wide receivers. Where's the upside case for Chris Alabe? This guy doesn't create yards after the catch which means he has to be reliant on accurate passes. Okay, you have Tyler shuck coming in 27 year old court. I don't know how 26 year old quarterback coming in as a rookie and I like the upside is more Tetcha Shahid. Right. Why would I just take Rashid Shahid later on after he out produced Chris Olave last season? When you look at just top 12 weekly finishes over the past two seasons, Chris Olave has averaged two per year over the last two seasons. Rashid has more top 12 weekly finishes than Chris Olave over the past two seasons. So when you're looking for upside, just wait and take Rashid Shahid. It's the exact same bet you're making except you're paying a fraction of the cost. So if you think that hey maybe the Saints can surprise I'm a big Tyler Schuck guy, like then don't. I would just invest in Shaheed instead. And again, I'm not saying that that's going to be the case that I want to be a talented check person. Like I really don't want to draft any Saints either but if I have to draft one, I'll just take Shaheed Shahid.

[Ryan Warmley]

She if you're tired of draft day uncertainty, the Cheat Sheet Creator is your personal guide to perfect league specific rankings. Visualize your path to victory as you add tiers and sync your league to craft custom rankings, ensuring every pick is strategic and tailored to your league settings. Sync your league and enter your draft with confidence using the Cheat sheet [e-mail] sheet or on the Fantasy Football Draft wizard app. Guys, let's do one overhyped sleeper each. This is round nine or later. We can go a little quicker on here because it's, it's less really an overvalued guy and more just kind of a sleeper maybe that you're not totally buying into and are. You know it feels weird to say avoid when you're this late, but it's not a guy you're targeting as one of your later round sleepers. So we'll go a little quicker here. Erickson, who do you have?

[Andrew Erickson]

Tyrone Tracy, running back for the New York Giants. I just don't, I think when it's all said and done, I don't think he's going to be the starting running back for the New York Giants. So that's my concern about where he's ranked going ahead of Cam Scatterboo. I get why you'd have him ranked ahead of Cam Scatter Boo. But Tyron Tracy, if you look at him last year, it was kind of the tale of two seasons, right? When he first took over the job, he was very efficient, very explosive. But weeks 12 through 18 he was PFF's fourth worst graded rusher. He's splitting carries inside the five yard line with Devin Singletary. He had ball security issues. Third most fumbles among running backs. How many fumbles is it going to take for Brian Dable to be like I'm sick of this guy. Let's get Cam Scatterboo in there. Right? Every game the Giants play they have to win for them to keep their jobs and guys spoiler their schedule's really hard so they can't afford turnovers and dumb mistakes by young players. So if Tyrone, I just think that his leash on the RB1 role is super, super loose. I just don't think that he has a vice grip on it. And when you look at the way that the Giants have orchestrated or have kind of created this back so you have Devin Singletary as a veteran presence, you have Tyrone Tracy. Tyrone Tracy seems like the complementary back to a starter like Cam Scatterable. Where Tyrone Tracy is, the change of pace back comes in as a burst of explosiveness. But Cam Scatter, but we know he can play on all three downs. He know that we can catch passes out of the backfield. Even though Tyrone Tracy played wide receiver, it's still a little bit different when you're catching passes out of the backfield versus running routes from the slot or from out wide. So I think that Scottaboo is a legitimate threat and there's only really based on how we expect this Giants offense to be probably not that good. Any type of workload that Taryn Tracy is losing out to Cam scouting is going to hurt him a lot.

[Ryan Warmley]

Any quick thoughts Tom on on Tracy versus Scatter Boo in that backfield?

[Tom Strachan]

Yeah, I'm just right there with Erickson. It just doesn't feel like a pick that I want to make. They seem so hot and cold on him last year and Devon Singletary's presence there be so much easier to take Tracy if Devon Singletary had been cut. But as it is like just give me Scatterbow instead.

[Ryan Warmley]

Tom, who is your last player here?

[Tom Strachan]

Yeah, it's Jaden Blue for the Cowboys. Like going currently about pick 130 and I've done this whole who else is going to get the touches argument before. It doesn't feel great. This is a guy who was a 5th round pick of 24th running back off the board of the draft, only had one college season over 400 yards. I just legitimately think that he could be a special teams only type player. Now obviously he's probably going to get touched in this offense because it is just Giovanny Williams and Miles Sanders ahead of him. They have experience in things that actually matter to NFL offenses and just penciling in a guy with very little college production into a starter role or into a meaningful role isn't something I want particularly in managed leagues. And like just give me guys like Trey Benson, Ray Davis, Rashad White who are all going around him instead. I just do not want to make this bet at this price.

[Ryan Warmley]

Our colleague has been very in on this idea that Jaden Blue, like he doesn't hate Blue, but this idea that he's going to take over this backfield even on passing downs, which is kind of I think the stereotype that people are thinking about for Blue. He's not a very good pass protector. Like I, I think and we talked about this Erickson of course, on the running back ranking show that we just did earlier this week where you and me and D Row are all we're not like over the moon about Javante Williams, but we're all higher than consensus on him.

[Andrew Erickson]

He's this year's JK$Dobbins. Are you joining the the lockstep with this call here we have the next J.K. dobbs as Javante.

[Tom Strachan]

You can kind of drag me along slow J.K. dobbins like pace well, I.

[Ryan Warmley]

Mean I think, I think you really kind of have to be in on him if you are fading Blue because this is going to be a good offense. Maybe not an elite offense, but I think if Dak is healthy and CD Lamb is healthy, it's going to be at the very least a good offense and I think Miles Sanders couldn't be more washed. So if we think Blue is maybe a little bit overhyped too, somebody is going to get some valuable touches and I think Javante Williams has a better chance than the other two guys in this backfield. So I know we're not talking about Javante but I mean it's kind of a counterpoint to or it's kind of the other side of the coin of fading Jaden Blue.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, I would agree with Jaden Blue being maybe a little overvalued. I think that we love how he's explosive and he can catch passes out of the backfield. But but that doesn't mean he's going to get goal line touches. That doesn't mean he's going to catch all the dump offs from Dak Prescott. But yes, he'll look great running a wheel route from Dak Prescott and then he won't play any more snaps in the game. Like that's the issue with Jaden Blue is I think let's say Javante flops. I don't think they're going to be like all right, let's load Jaden blue up with 20 carries. I think it's gonna be like hey who's going to be the next innings year like Miles Sanders, get in there, just take carries. So Jaden Blue, I agree is going to look explosive in this offense and things he can rip off big plays. But but is that going to be predictive of okay, now you feel good about starting Jaden Blue? Oh, we got five touches the next week. So like that's the concern is he's just a compliment to which one of these guys. So I think if Javante hits, I think he's probably a bigger win than if Jaden Blue is just kind of like used seldomly based on the fact that oh he also has fumble security issues as well pass pro like you said Worm. So yeah, I think that Jaden Blue probably a little bit overvalued as well.

[Ryan Warmley]

To to that point. You know, we're saying that he's overvalued in the rankings. His ADP is 30 spots higher than where he's currently ranked in ECR. So it's he's all right and that there's a lot of room for that to change obviously between now and the end of August, but he's already going well ahead of where the experts are ranking him and we're even saying that the experts are maybe ranking him a bit too high. So definitely be at least thinking about that if you are targeting him as a sleeper in your redraft leagues. We'll go ahead and wrap up there because it's super late for Tom right now. Todd, thanks for staying up late with us a little FP after dark, at least from your perspective. For Tom and Erickson, I'm Ryan warmly thanks everybody for tuning in and we'll see you again next time.

[Andrew Erickson]

Go Ravens.

[Ryan Warmley]

Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple [e-mail] review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros this is an I heart podcast.