Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – FantasyPros: DON'T BE FILLED WITH REGRET | 12 Most Overvalued Players in 2025 (Ep. 1581)
Release Date: June 2, 2025
Host/Authors: Ryan Warmley, Andrew Erickson, Tom Strachan
Platform: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Introduction

In Episode 1581 of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd," host Ryan Warmley, alongside co-hosts Andrew Erickson and Tom Strachan, delves into the landscape of fantasy football for the 2025 season. The primary focus is identifying the 12 most overvalued players based on their current Average Draft Position (ADP) versus Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) from FantasyPros. The discussion aims to guide fantasy managers in making informed decisions to avoid regrettable picks.

Early Round Overvalued Players

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions – Wide Receiver)

Andrew Erickson initiates the discussion with Amon-Ra St. Brown, highlighting his high draft position versus projected performance:

• Erickson (03:03):
  "He's being drafted 8th overall but projections have him closer to 16th when considering flex positions."

He points out increased target competition in Detroit due to emerging talents like Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, which diluted St. Brown's target share from 27% to 23% in the latter half of the previous season.

Tom Strachan counters by emphasizing St. Brown's reliability:

• Strachan (06:43):
  "His touchdowns have grown each season, showing his established role despite new offensive dynamics."

He argues that St. Brown's consistency and touchdown growth make him more secure than Erickson suggests.

Ryan Warmley aligns partially with Erickson but acknowledges Strachan's points:

• Warmley (05:20):
  "If I can get him in the mid to late second round, especially with a strong receiver in the first, it’s acceptable."

Conclusion: While Erickson believes St. Brown is overvalued at his current ADP, Strachan maintains confidence in his established role, leading to a nuanced view among the hosts.

2. Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins – Wide Receiver)

Andrew Erickson expresses strong skepticism about Tyreek Hill's fantasy value:

• Erickson (14:02):
  "Tyreek Hill is vastly overrated as a top 36 overall player. His efficiency dropped significantly last season."

He cites Hill's declining yards per route run and persistent injury concerns as key factors undermining his performance.

Ryan Warmley concurs emphatically:

• Warmley (15:46):
  "He's losing a step, and with age and dependency on a potentially unstable quarterback like Tua, I won't draft him in the top tiers."

Tom Strachan reinforces the consensus:

• Strachan (16:48):
  "His yards per reception and touchdown output have declined, marking him around player 35 in rankings."

Conclusion: All hosts agree that Tyreek Hill is overvalued in early rounds due to declining performance metrics and injury risks.

3. Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts – Running Back)

Tom Strachan critiques Jonathan Taylor's value:

• Strachan (08:27):
  "His fantasy points often relied on just a few high-performance games. Without consistent production, his season falls flat."

He highlights Taylor's dependency on offensive performance and his fluctuation in weekly production, positioning him lower in RD rankings.

Andrew Erickson aligns with Tom, noting potential drawbacks:

• Erickson (10:38):
  "Although Taylor has a projection that aligns with ECR, his efficiency and offensive line uncertainties make him risky."

Ryan Warmley offers a middle ground:

• Warmley (10:04):
  "Comfortable drafting him in the mid to late second round, especially if paired with strong receivers."

Conclusion: While there's some comfort in drafting Taylor, concerns about consistency and offensive support suggest caution.

Mid Round Overvalued Players

4. DJ Moore (Chicago Bears – Wide Receiver)

Andrew Erickson targets DJ Moore as overvalued:

• Erickson (25:32):
  "The Bears' dysfunctional offense casts doubt on Moore’s ability to maintain WR1 status. Drafting him might limit upside."

He references Moore's fluctuating performance, driven by offensive instability and quarterback chemistry issues.

Ryan Warmley supports the assessment:

• Warmley (25:32):
  "Despite Moore never finishing below WR22 since his rookie year, his recent decline and offensive role raise red flags."

Tom Strachan remains neutral but acknowledges concerns:

• Strachan (27:17):
  "Moore doesn’t fail spectacularly, but he isn't a standout either. His placement around WR23 feels acceptable."

Conclusion: The Bears' offensive issues make DJ Moore a cautious mid-round pick, with potential upside limited by team dynamics.

5. Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings – Wide Receiver)

Andrew Erickson critiques Addison's projected performance:

• Erickson (33:13):
  "Addison’s touchdowns were concentrated in the latter half of the previous season. With a new quarterback, his target share isn't promising."

He points out the Vikings' likely shift towards a run-heavy offense, reducing Addison's involvement.

Ryan Warmley offers a balanced view:

• Warmley (34:18):
  "While Addison has consistent targets, his touchdown dependency and new QB dynamics introduce uncertainty."

Tom Strachan remains cautiously optimistic:

• Strachan (49:04):
  "Addison’s touchdown numbers are impressive, but regression in production is plausible. However, surrounding offensive questions make him a manageable risk."

Conclusion: Jordan Addison is viewed as overvalued due to concentration of touchdown production and potential offensive shifts, though his consistent targets offer some security.

Overvalued Sleepers

6. Debo Samuel (Washington Commanders – Wide Receiver)

Tom Strachan marks Debo Samuel as overvalued:

• Strachan (40:36):
  "Debo had disappointing performance last season with the lowest receiving success rate in his career. Projecting him around round seven is more appropriate."

He emphasizes Samuel's inefficiency and injury history, questioning his role in the new Commanders' offense.

Andrew Erickson agrees:

• Erickson (42:13):
  "Samuel's inconsistent performance and lack of reliable usage make him a risky pick. Even with potential upside, the floor is too low."

Ryan Warmley concurs thoroughly:

• Warmley (44:14):
  "Samuel hasn't consistently delivered high yardage or touchdowns outside his breakout season. The offensive uncertainty in Washington undermines his value."

Conclusion: Debo Samuel is consensus as an overvalued sleeper with low reliability and questionable offensive fit.

7. Jaden Blue (Dallas Cowboys – Running Back)

Tom Strachan criticizes Jaden Blue's draft value:

• Strachan (57:30):
  "Blue's limited college production and unclear role behind established backs like Giovanny Williams and Miles Sanders make him a questionable pick."

Andrew Erickson echoes the concerns:

• Erickson (59:22):
  "Blue may appear explosive, but his lack of goal-line touches and fumble issues limit his fantasy reliability."

Ryan Warmley reinforces the sentiment:

• Warmley (58:42):
  "Blue is drafted 30 spots higher than expert rankings suggest. With potential competition and offensive inefficiencies, his value is inflated."

Conclusion: Jaden Blue is deemed overvalued due to limited production history and uncertain role within a competitive backfield.

Additional Overvalued Players

8. Kyron Williams (Los Angeles Rams – Running Back)

Tom Strachan discusses Kyron Williams' decline:

• Strachan (19:22):
  "Williams has shown inefficiency with a low DVOA and fumble issues, decreasing his reliability as a fantasy asset."

Andrew Erickson supports this evaluation:

• Erickson (21:26):
  "With rising competition and declining efficiency, drafting Williams poses significant risks of underperformance."

Ryan Warmley adds a personal hesitance:

• Warmley (20:57):
  "Having been burned last year by fading Williams, I'm reluctant to risk drafting him again."

Conclusion: Kyron Williams is viewed as an overvalued pick due to declining performance metrics and increasing competition for touches.

Mid-Season Considerations

9. Devonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles – Wide Receiver)

Andrew Erickson scrutinizes Devonta Smith's fantasy worth:

• Erickson (34:18):
  "Smith excels when teammates like A.J. Brown are injured but struggles otherwise, making him a conditional asset rather than a reliable starter."

Ryan Warmley emphasizes Smith's conditional performance:

• Warmley (35:58):
  "While not a bust, Smith's value hinges on injuries to primary targets, which isn't a dependable strategy for consistent fantasy success."

Tom Strachan remains cautiously neutral:

• Strachan (37:03):
  "Smith is solid but not standout. His role varies based on the team's health dynamics, making him a flexible but not essential pick."

Conclusion: Devonta Smith is considered overvalued as his fantasy production is inconsistent and heavily reliant on external factors like teammate injuries.

Concluding Insights

The hosts collectively caution fantasy managers against drafting certain high-ADP players who may not deliver expected performance due to various factors like offensive changes, player age, injury history, and role uncertainty. They advocate for thorough analysis and considering player efficiency, team dynamics, and future projections to mitigate regrets during drafts.

Notable Quotes:

• Erickson (03:03):
  "Amon-Ra is being drafted 8th overall but projections have him closer to 16th when considering flex positions."

• Strachan (14:02):
  "Tyreek Hill is vastly overrated as a top 36 overall player."

• Warmley (05:20):
  "If I can get him in the mid to late second round, especially with a strong receiver in the first, it’s acceptable."

• Erickson (25:32):
  "DJ Moore is a cautious mid-round pick, limited by team dynamics."

• Strachan (40:36):
  "Debo Samuel had the lowest receiving success rate in his career; projecting him around round seven is more appropriate."

Final Thoughts

"The Herd with Colin Cowherd" Episode 1581 serves as a strategic guide for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to navigate the complexities of player valuations for the 2025 season. By highlighting overvalued players across early and mid-rounds, the hosts equip listeners with the insights needed to optimize their draft strategies and enhance their competitive edge.