FantasyPros - DON'T STEP ON THESE LANDMINES | Dangerous Players You Should Avoid in 2025 (Ep. 1585)

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd Episode: FantasyPros - DON'T STEP ON THESE LANDMINES | Dangerous Players You Should Avoid in 2025 (Ep. 1585) Release Date: June 7, 2025

In this insightful episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, hosted by Ryan Wormley and featuring Andrew Erickson and Jake Seeley from FantasyPros and The Athletic Guys respectively, the trio delves into the perilous landscape of fantasy football for the 2025 season. The focus is squarely on identifying "landmine" players—those with high risk and low reward potential that fantasy managers should steer clear of to safeguard their drafts and seasons.

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Introduction and Setting the Tone

Ryan Wormley opens the discussion by acknowledging the series of negative-themed episodes they've been hosting, including ones on "Do Not Draft" and "Overvalued Players." He emphasizes the importance of highlighting potential pitfalls to help listeners make informed decisions. Both Andrew Erickson and Jake Seeley express their reservations about adopting a pessimistic stance but agree on the necessity of it for the benefit of the audience.

Key Quote:

• Ryan Wormley [01:19]: "I've done a Do Not Draft episode. I've done an overvalued episode. Now it's the players we're avoiding—all these landmines."

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Running Backs to Avoid

1. Kyron Williams (Los Angeles Rams)

   • Concerns: High workload but low efficiency. Last season saw 389 touches with a disappointing snap share and poor explosive run rate.
   • Discussion: Erickson highlights the risk of Kyron being overworked without corresponding production gains. Jake expresses skepticism about the coaching staff's promises to redistribute his workload.

   Notable Quotes:

   • Andrew Erickson [03:54]: "Kyron's going to sign an extension probably with the Rams, and if they want to make him last, it doesn't mean we're going to load him up every season."
   • Jake Seeley [06:09]: "I don't believe Sean McVay will keep loading him; it'll just happen after a few bad games."

2. Kenneth Walker (San Francisco 49ers)

   • Concerns: Inconsistent performance and potential for being sidelined due to health issues.
   • Discussion: While Walker has shown explosive potential, concerns over his durability and the team's possible shift to a committee approach make him a risky pick.

   Notable Quotes:

   • Andrew Erickson [11:52]: "Walker can rip off explosive plays, but with his contract year looming, they might run him into the ground."
   • Jake Seeley [09:02]: "I have him as a backend RB1, but I’m hesitant to draft him early due to these risks."

3. DeAndre Swift (Chicago Bears)

   • Concerns: Limited upside and vulnerability to being replaced by younger players or changes in coaching strategy.
   • Discussion: Erickson reiterates that Swift's consistent ranking around RB18-23 makes him a high-end bust candidate, especially with potential coaching changes under Ben Johnson.

   Notable Quotes:

   • Andrew Erickson [13:15]: "DeAndre Swift is going to be a high-end bust because he’s just waiting, holding the bag."

4. Tony Pollard (Tennessee Titans)

   • Concerns: Potential shift to a committee role and declining efficiency in the latter half of last season.
   • Discussion: Pollard's performance dipped in the second half of the 2024 season, raising doubts about his consistency and ability to deliver reliable fantasy points.

   Notable Quotes:

   • Andrew Erickson [20:46]: "Pollard was RB26 and grouped with rookies. His late-season performance was subpar despite some efficiency improvements."

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Wide Receivers to Avoid

1. Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins)

   • Concerns: Age-related decline in speed and overall efficiency, compounded by team-wide offensive struggles.
   • Discussion: While Hill remains a fringe top receiver, uncertainties surrounding the Dolphins' offensive strategy and his age make him a risky pick.

   Notable Quotes:

   • Jake Seeley [24:42]: "I'm more positive on Hill than on Waddle, but the Dolphins' overall performance raises concerns."

2. Jalen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)

   • Concerns: Frequent injuries and potential decline in peak performance.
   • Discussion: Erickson remains cautiously optimistic about Waddle's capabilities when healthy, whereas Jake leans towards avoiding him due to injury concerns.

   Notable Quotes:

   • Andrew Erickson [29:46]: "Waddle is worth the price if his injury concerns are mitigated, but he's still on the injury reports frequently."

3. Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers)

   • Concerns: Inconsistent target share and not replicating past explosive performances.
   • Discussion: Samuel is considered a viable WR4 but lacks the reliable production to justify higher draft positions.

   Notable Quotes:

   • Jake Seeley [35:05]: "As a WR4, I'm okay with Deebo, but not willing to draft him higher than that due to limited upside."

4. Rasheed Rice (Kansas City Chiefs)

   • Concerns: Transition into a new role with Patrick Mahomes and the presence of multiple receiving options diluting his targets.
   • Discussion: Both hosts express strong reservations about Rice's ability to secure a top target role, making him a low-value pick.

   Notable Quotes:

   • Jake Seeley [37:11]: "I like the names in front of Rice better, like DK Metcalf or DJ Moore, but Rasheed Rice just doesn't make sense."

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Quarterbacks to Avoid

1. Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)

   • Concerns: Regression in performance due to tougher schedule, offensive line issues, and lack of consistent supporting cast.
   • Discussion: Both hosts agree that Goff lacks the upward trajectory needed for reliable fantasy production and prefer to focus on more promising quarterbacks.

   Notable Quotes:

   • Andrew Erickson [42:32]: "Jared Goff will regress and won’t be worth his ADP given the better quarterback options available."

2. General Avoidance of Non-Running Quarterbacks

   • Concerns: High dependence on passing statistics without the bonus of rushing yards makes these QBs volatile and less reliable.
   • Discussion: Excluding elite passers like Joe Burrow, other non-running quarterbacks are seen as too risky due to their dependence solely on passing performance for fantasy points.

   Notable Quotes:

   • Jake Seeley [47:23]: "I'm way out on all of these quarterbacks, so much so that I'm way above consensus too."

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Tight Ends to Avoid

1. Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens)

   • Concerns: Overreliance on touchdown scoring with low consistency in weekly performances.
   • Discussion: Despite his talent, Andrews is viewed as a high-risk, high-reward tight end whose performance is highly dependent on scoring touchdowns. Both hosts agree it's safer to wait for other tight ends who might offer more consistent points.

   Notable Quotes:

   • Andrew Erickson [52:12]: "Mark Andrews is a touchdown-reliant tight end, putting him at tight end 8 in ADP is too risky."
   • Ryan Wormley [54:07]: "He will have catches but not enough yards to consistently justify his draft position."

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Speed Round: Listener Submissions

In a rapid-fire segment, the hosts address listener-submitted players to avoid, providing quick agree/disagree responses:

• Ashton Gentry: Out
• Christian McCaffrey: In
• Jonathan Taylor: Out
• James Cook: Erickson Out, Jake In
• Chase Brown: Erickson Out, Jake In
• Alvin Kamara: Erickson Out, Jake In
• Davante Adams: Erickson In, Jake In
• Travis Kelce: Erickson Out, Jake In
• Rashaad Pittman: Erickson Out, Jake In
• Michael Pittman: Erickson Out, Jake In
• Chris Olave: Erickson Out, Jake In
• Kyle Pitts: Erickson Out, Jake In

Key Highlights:

• Christian McCaffrey: Reliable despite some concerns.
• Jonathan Taylor & James Cook: Mixed opinions with Erickson leaning towards avoidance.
• Davante Adams: Generally accepted despite some reservations.
• Kyle Pitts: Viewed with skepticism due to performance concerns.

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Final Thoughts and Recommendations

Ryan Wormley concludes the episode by reiterating the importance of avoiding these high-risk players to ensure a successful fantasy football season. He encourages listeners to consider the discussions and analyses provided to make informed drafting decisions. The hosts collectively agree that while some players may have moments of brilliance, their overall reliability and consistency make them landmines in fantasy drafts.

Closing Quote:

• Ryan Wormley [60:36]: "Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time."

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Conclusion

This episode serves as a crucial guide for fantasy football managers aiming to navigate the treacherous waters of player drafts in 2025. By highlighting the potential pitfalls associated with specific running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends, Ryan Wormley, Andrew Erickson, and Jake Seeley provide listeners with the insights needed to avoid costly mistakes and build a competitive fantasy team.

Transcript

[Ryan Wormley]

This is an iHeart podcast. AI is redefining what's possible for your business. With more unique challenges to solve and higher stakes than ever, Microsoft helps you stay ahead. Our trustworthy AI tools and guidance can empower leaders like you to drive greater impact. And with Azure's simplified platform management, we're helping businesses go further, faster, unlocking up to 150% improved output. Whatever challenge comes next, let Microsoft help you keep pushing forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com challengers hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Wormley, joined today by Andrew Erickson and by Jake Seeley from the Athletic Guys, I feel like I've had a lot of negative shows lately that's continuing. Today we're talking players are avoiding in 2025 some landmines to avoid. I was talking to our coworker mayor about in the last three weeks I've done like a Do Not Draft episode. I've done an overvalued episode. Now it's the players. We're avoiding all these landmines. It's all negative. So I'm sorry for that to the audience that I have to continually be the party pooper here on these episodes. Quick reminder for everybody that all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasyprose.com rankings Erickson, how do you feel about diving into some of these more negative takes here?

[Andrew Erickson]

Well, similar to you, I have also been on a bunch of negative player shows. I actually wasn't supposed to be on the show. I had to do some swapping with Derek Brown, so I was supposed to be on the fun show later in the week. But alas, I'm here talking negatively. But we're gonna get a different perspective with Jake joining. I don't think Jake has done as many negative shows as we've done, so it'll be getting some interesting light. Maybe he can push back on some guys that we're down on and maybe open a light about maybe some concerns about some other players.

[Ryan Wormley]

Jake, do you feel like you more enjoy coming on to these shows and getting to hype up players you like or getting to be the kind of negative Nelly on the players you don't like?

[Jake Seeley]

No, actually I put on this one. I'm like, can I find somebody? I don't like the negative ones. I like trying to make positive because I just feel like that comes out so inherently. Like I don't even do busts anymore just because. Well, two things is one is YouTube picked that up one time Was like sensitive content and pull their video down because I guess, you know, who knows what people are searching out there. But busts. But also it just, it always feels good to like, hey, these are the breakouts. More so than like, can't, like, just avoid. I think the way that we're phrasing it, though, is that we're avoiding these players. It's not necessarily like we're calling them trash.

[Ryan Wormley]

Yeah, they're, they're, they're potential traps. They're landmines that we are avoiding. But, you know, at a certain, like.

[Jake Seeley]

My T shirt, that's a trap. She's going to pull the football away. I don't even. There you go.

[Ryan Wormley]

We had to find a chat about all of Jake's graphic tees before the episode, and it's already coming into play here in the.

[Andrew Erickson]

Let us know the. So Jake has a lot of graphic tees and I want, and I want people in the comments to list off how many graphic tees they think Jake has.

[Ryan Wormley]

Whatever. Whatever. You guess it's not going to be.

[Jake Seeley]

You know what?

[Ryan Wormley]

I'll tell you guys, you know what?

[Jake Seeley]

Because I. If you get the number on the nose, I'll send you one of my retired ones that I don't wear on the show anymore. I actually have a retired pile that I don't wear anymore.

[Ryan Wormley]

Try, try to hit the number on the nose. Jake will send you a fun little gift there before we dive in here. And by the way, I know we all just kind of like dumped on the concept of the episode. This still is an important conversation, right? Like, there are players that you want to be avoiding. So we're going to, we're going to have fun with the episode, even if it is a little negative. Before we dive into you guys, player picks, and we're going to go position by position. We got some running backs, receivers, et cetera. Do you have anything going on at the Athletic you want to share?

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, positive. It's my series of breakouts is starting the quarterbacks first, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. So top five breakout potential quarterbacks coming for this year.

[Ryan Wormley]

All right, so you get the positivity over there. You get the negativity here. Let's have some fun. We'll start off with the running backs. Erickson, let's start with you. Who's the running back that you're avoiding this year?

[Andrew Erickson]

Kyron Williams for the Los Angeles Rams. My concerns for Kyron are. We know that Sean McVeigh loves him, but I do have concerns about if Kyron's going to see the exact same workload he saw last season. 389 touches, 87 snap share. So basically both second to only Saquon Barkley. And I know I have concerns about Saquon Barkley having a successful 2025 after how many touches he had last year. But the big difference between Kyron and Saquon is Williams was really inefficient as a rusher last year, so he ranked near the bottom in the league in terms of explosive run rate, missed tackles per touch, yards out of your contact per attempt. If you look at a lot of his advanced rushing metrics, it looked very similar to Najee Harris. So yes, there are certain points where a player like a Najee Harris rushing style can be effective. And when you're getting all the touches in a backfield on a good offense, yes, it can work and score you fantasy points. But the fact that they still have Blake Corum entering his second season who is a carbon copy of Kyren, the fact that they drafted Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round, they traded up to get him as more of a not replacement for Kyren, but someone that I think they view as a compliment to hey, let's give Kyron a breather. Let's get this explosive running back on the field. Shamave has talked a lot about this offseason about kind of mimicking a little bit what they did in Tampa Bay with Liam Cohen, with where they were using Pony personnel, they're using multiple running backs. So I think in an effort to keep Kyron healthy and upright because Sean McVeigh loves him, I don't want to destroy this guy. Kyren's going to sign an extension probably with the Los Angeles Rams, and if they want to make him last and be productive year over year in some capacity, then I don't think it means we're going to load him up with 350 plus touches every single season. And if he's seeing a reduced workload and also not being as efficient like we saw last year when his efficiency really kind of fell off, I'm concerned that he's not be able to meet RB1 type of draft capital ADP. So those are my concerns for Kyron Williams.

[Ryan Wormley]

Jake, I'm really curious what you think about this one. I feel like I've talked about Kyron on a few episodes recently and what I keep saying is I am very interested in fading him. My hesitation is that the fact that I faded him a year ago and got burned by it and I'm worried about Getting burned again. How are you approaching Kyren in drafts this year?

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, I was reaching there for like the prop because I was thinking of good old. I don't believe you when it comes down to this because the fact is Sean McVay has already talked up about, oh, we need to do more like the rest of the league and share more touches. And that's what I'm saying. I don't believe you. Like how many times are we. I don't believe you. You do this every single year you could. And credit to Ian Hardest who did this is went out there and pulled everything he said last year about Blake Corum and treated the tweet as in a Jarquez Hunter tweet. And everybody thought it was about Jarkos Hunter when it was all the stuff he said last year about Blake Corum and pulling the workload off Kyron Williams. So I say I don't believe you. But I will say there is a little bit of a concern. I have Kyron Williams as a back end RB1. You could argue that if I don't have any concern, he should be a mid RB one, he should be RB five, six, seven. But the concern I have is that I don't actually believe him in the workload. But I do know that Sean McVay, once it happens, he will make that switch. And I don't think it has anything to do with necessarily drafting Hunter. I tweeted this out a few weeks ago, is that McVay Snead, the Rams, whatever you want to say, they have drafted a day two or three running back every single year since 2018. Every single year. This is just what they do. But similar to Cam Akers, similar to Darrell Henderson and all the rest is once the switch happens, he very quickly loses favor for his running back. I just think that's what's going to take for Kyren Williams to lose his. Not necessarily the inefficiency, which I'll acknowledge you're 100% right, Erickson, one of the more inefficient running backs in the lines of Najee Harris and even Joe Mixon at this point of his career, but I just don't believe him. It's just going to happen from day one. I think it's going to take two or three bad games for Kyren and then it could happen, which is why I have him as a back in RB1 and not a mid RB1.

[Ryan Wormley]

Erickson, before we move off Kyron just because he's such a big name, at what point are you Comfortable drafting him. Is it the end of the second round? Is it. He needs to fall to the third for you to be interested. His ADP is RB12 right now. For reference, I think it's really more.

[Andrew Erickson]

I think he can probably be productive in the beginning of the season. It's just a matter of getting the rug pull or to Jake's shirt. Right. You know, the football gets pulled out and that's why this show is different than the one that we did earlier this week where it's over last week, overvalued players. I don't think Kyren Williams is necessarily. I think that he has a bus potential because if Sean McVeigh decides, all right, you're no longer my guy, I don't love you anymore, I want to move on. Then Kyren Williams value doesn't just decrease, it evaporates and it becomes now he's a bust. So that's why he's a dangerous player to me. So if I roster him, I think it's probably more like round three where I'd feel more comfortable taking a shot at him. But if he's on my team, if he's my hero RB every single week after he gets 25 plus touches in the beginning of the season, I'm going to be looking to put him on the trade block and see, hey, who wants to take Kyra Williams, who thinks that this is sustainable production? So that's kind of the way I would probably approach it.

[Ryan Wormley]

Jake, who's your first running back here?

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, my first running back. I'm way under consensus on this one. Kyron Williams. I'm still right around the range, but I'm actually six under. So much so that I'd even take DeAndre Swift and the Bears over him. And it's Kenneth Walker. I just, I think I'm done trying to hope for the best for Kenneth Walker. And it's not just a health issue. Is that there was questions we said, like, oh, can Zach Charbonnet be the guy if Kenneth Walker's not there? And Zach Charbonnet went out there and did it and did it extremely well, arguably did it better than Kenneth Walker did. And I think we're now at the point where going in into 2025, I think this is to bring up the Najah Harris, what Erickson was just talking about. I think it's going to be similar to the Steelers last year where it's like this is almost a full 50, 50 split. And if you're telling me it's a 5050 split, I want the better per touch option. And so far, at least for the past year, plus it's been charmon A and I don't think this is necessarily not potentially a committee. And I know like I'm a bigger fan of Martinez than a lot of people, but I think Martinez was a plan of like, hey, we're not bringing back Kenneth Walker. Like Kenneth Walker, we're done. We're not paying that contract, we're not doing running backs, which a lot of teams are smartly doing when it comes to money. But I think they're looking at this is going to be Martinez and Charbonnet next year. Well, what if that happens in 2025? Which similar to McVeigh is just the Seahawks are like, you know what, we're done with you Walker. Like it's just tiresome at this point is the fact that you're not doing what we want you to do on a consistent basis. There's been flashes for Walker, but it just hasn't been consistent. It hasn't been consistent also partly because his health, we have to do admit that. But I think this could be a full blown committee at worst and if nothing else, I do think at best it's a timeshare and I think similar to Steelers, we're going to want the more explosive one and that was Warren and I think we'd want Charbonnet in that situation.

[Ryan Wormley]

This is one where I wish DBRO was still on this episode because he is extremely high on Kenneth Walker. Now Erickson is also above consensus, just not I think D RO has him like RB8 or something this year. Deebro is very high in Kenneth Walker. He's RB16 in ECR. Erickson, I think you have him like RB13 or so. So a little bit above consensus, just not quite as much as dbro. Before I throw it to you, Erickson, because I want to hear kind of the other side of this. Jake, kind of similar question I asked Erickson about Kyron. At what point are you interested in Walker? I mean you said that he's like pretty below consensus for you. So are you just like assuming you're not going to get any of him or if he falls to around X, you're going to be interested.

[Jake Seeley]

So I have him 22nd overall at running back again behind Swift by 1 and 57th overall period. So I think I'm just not getting Walker. But I mean if he happened to fall to that range and I could see the one scenario for Walker because maybe, maybe I'm wrong and there is upside that that Split goes back to 6040 and it's him and somehow he stays healthy at this point. But I would want three wide receivers at this point like Walker as my RB2 would be a roster construction situation. I do not want walker as my RB2 if I'm taking him in the third round.

[Ryan Wormley]

Okay Erickson, what do you think?

[Andrew Erickson]

So I do think that Ken Walker will be the Bell cow. It's still the same head coach that heavily leaned on Walker when he was healthy. It wasn't a timeshare last year really it was Walker until he got hurt and then it was Charbonnet filling in as it was more of a Dalvin Cook Alexander Madison type of scenario from a couple years ago where Madison smashed but when Dalvin Cook was healthy he was always the main guy. It's a contract year for Kenneth Walker, so yes, maybe they are looking ahead to 2026 as Charbonnet Damier Martinez. So hey, let's run Kenneth Walker into the ground. He's on the last year of his deal. We have no long term commitment to this guy but what we know he can do is rip off explosive plays. Is the complete opposite of what Kyron did last year. Walker was really efficient on a per touch basis, basically led the NFL. Missed tackles, force per attempt. He also set career highs across the board as a receiver out of the backfield. So if that offensive line is still somewhat shaky again, Walker could catch a lot of dump off passes from Sam Darnold. So I think that Walker's profile betting on a guy who is explosive can get by on potentially limited touches and also flashed as a receiver. He's just an archetype player that I do want to bet on to take a leap again if he can stay healthy. So those are reasons why I'm a little bit higher on Ken Walker and he's one of the guys. I mean I would draft him over Kyron Williams.

[Ryan Wormley]

Well let let's go to your next pick Erickson, because Jake mentioned this guy as somebody he would take over Walker but it's somebody that you're avoiding.

[Andrew Erickson]

I am avoiding DeAndre Swift because I think that he is the classic dead zone running back mold where he's just getting his hype or whatever you'd like to call how people are talking about DeAndre Swift because of projected volume. Right? There's no one else in the backfield. They drafted Kyle menungnai in the seventh round. They have Roshan Johnson entering year three who hasn't done a ton but DeAndre Swift. Where's the upside case here. DeAndre Swift has been RB18, RB19, RB22, RB23 and RB19. That's been his NFL career. Never better than RB18, never worse than RB23. So does that mean maybe he's a value if he holds on to the starting Bears role? I guess. But I've seen this play out before with him, with Ben Johnson. The first time that Ben Johnson took over as the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions was the last year we saw DeAndre Swift in Detroit. So I've already seen him not see eye to eye with the current offensive coach and in this specific running back and we've seen before in the past when that coaching connection is not there. Last year with Sean Payton and Javante Williams, to an extent those guys never saw odd eye and so it never really worked out. I just feel like Swift is there until Ben Johnson decides I'm sick of this, I want to use somebody else. And those are the reasons why I just think that DeAndre Swift, you're just, you're going to be waiting, holding the bag hoping that okay, he doesn't lose his job. He doesn't lose his job. So those are the reasons why I think DeAndre Swift is a, a high end boss candidate.

[Ryan Wormley]

So what do you think Jake, in terms of Swift? Like obviously Eric, I know you like him better than Walker. As an example, Erickson mentioned kind of the history that he has with Ben Johnson. Having said that, they didn't address the position in other way. So if Ben Johnson doesn't really like Swift, he didn't go out and really prove it with the other player acquisitions. I mean I like common on guy but like there's Only so much 7th round pick you can expect out of him. So you said you like Swift better than Walker. Why is it that you are higher on Swift?

[Jake Seeley]

Honestly, Erickson kind of made some of my argument here is that it's that consistency. I'm not, I think that it kind of depends on perception here because if somebody is seeing Swift and like oh my gosh, they haven't done anything, they draft non guy. You're also talking about, hey you have the connection we talked about on the other show, the Eric B. Enemy connection with that with the Rutgers and oh by the way Pacheco with Biennami and the Chiefs, he's kind of replicating that. So that could be a concern. He'd be like hey maybe Biennie has a thing here for that Rutgers running back. But all that being said, like I don't think that Swift is going to be a 20 touch guy. I don't think Swift is a 20 touch guy. I think that if you look at Swift and you talked about all those numbers and the consistency, that's why I have him at RB21. I think that RB18 range is exactly what he needs to be as an RB2. And I think that' a guarantee with Ben Johnson. And you talked about it, it's like, yeah, there's been other opportunities. But again I go back to perception is that I think the perception might be kind of how you phrase the question. I'm not saying that you're coming for me or anything like that, but it's like is people are like, oh, they didn't do anything. So that means Swift to the moon now. No, I think this just means Swift is safe. And what Swift is is a timeshare running back. He is not a 70% workload guy. He's probably 55, maybe 60% where he hovers in those mid teens, maybe a few games, he gets up to 19, maybe 20 on a rare occasion. But in this offense and with his efficiency as bad as people might think it is, overall, it's still consistent efficiency. And I think that's the bigger thing is between the two. I think Swift's role, unless they make a shocking trade at this point, which is still on the cards, but his role is secure. I just believe that Kenneth Walker's role is in serious jeopardy. Despite the fact that Erickson is 100% right. When he was healthy he was given those opportunities. I think they just might be tired of him.

[Ryan Wormley]

I think yes, Swift is somebody for me that I just am not going to be excited if I draft.

[Andrew Erickson]

I think the thing with me with Swift is if I don't draft him, how is it going to hurt me? Like the best thing he could do is RB18. So that's RB2 production, which is, I.

[Jake Seeley]

Won'T say RB1, but I think there's a little bit more there.

[Andrew Erickson]

But based on what he's never done his entire NFL career, he's averaged close.

[Jake Seeley]

To 14 points per game in that second season. I think it was.

[Andrew Erickson]

Ken Walker was a top 12 running back last year in points per game.

[Jake Seeley]

I just don't believe that's him anymore. I just don't believe in Kenneth Walker. And that's again, this is why people can choose to like think that I'm stupid because I just. I.

[Andrew Erickson]

You're not stupid.

[Jake Seeley]

I don't believe in Kenneth Walker. I'm done believing in Ken. Put it this way, I think it Comes down to your risk aversion. And if you're shoot, I'll agree with you on this aspect. How about this? If we said who has a chance to be a top 10 running back? Kenneth Walker, not DeAndre Swart. I will agree with you on that. I just am done with Kenneth Walker of being like I always say, don't let a player burning you make it so like you never, you're like, oh, I'm never drafting again. But I have put it to the point where Kenneth Walker doesn't stay healthy. He doesn't perform efficiently like he is exploit. It's the weird thing is Kenneth Walker doesn't do what he's supposed to do. He's actually explosive. When you say Kenneth Walker, you should be good between the tackles and it's like he's not. He's like better once he gets to that second level, which is just really weird of him. If he could put it all together, it'd be top 10. And I think it just comes down to I'm willing to take him as my mid low RB2. I'm just not willing to take him as a fringe. So between the two's cost, I think the cost is more equitable and more reasonable for Swift than it is for Walker. Let's put it that way.

[Ryan Wormley]

This month, if you want a chance to win a signed George Pickens Steelers jersey now collectible because he's not on the team anymore for free, courtesy of our [e-mail] all you have to do is subscribe to The Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now, drop a comment below on any video and that is it. We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So make sure to turn on those notifications so you can know when new videos are up and to claim your prize. I know he's not on the team anymore, but it's, it's what we have to give away. So George Pickens Steelers jersey, come get it. Like I said, now a collectible.

[Andrew Erickson]

We've got vintage worm is the word.

[Ryan Wormley]

Yes. Maybe if you're a Steelers fan you can, you know, burn the jersey if you hate him for, you know, who knows. Try and get that jersey though. Jake, we've got one more running back we're avoiding here.

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, I'm way under on this one. I'm looking right now and versus consensus. I'm 11 under and actually had somebody in my comments even say, why do you hate? Because that's what happens is like why do you hate. Apparently I hate Tony Pollard. This Comes down to I believe this backfield is a complete split at this point. Tony Pollard, even last year having not so much of the split, he was still RB24 in points per game. Like Whoopi, do you know what you could actually, I'm setting Erickson up to come for me back at the DeAndre Swift thing because I feel like Tony Pollard is similar to DeAndre Swiftness. Like, where's the upside in him? He just finished RB24 despite being the lead for most of the year and getting outperformed at times by the second piece. I'm just, I'm not drafting Tony Pollard and so much so the fact that there's rookies in front of him and I know some rankings haven't completely adjusted yet, but. But the Pollard one is kind of. Again, I'm creating my own hole here by saying this is like I just don't see the upside where I could see Jalen Warren shocking people and outperforming Caleb Johnson or vice versa. I would take both Steelers running backs over Tony Pollard because at least with either one of them, there's the opportunity where one clearly takes over somebody. Najee Harris was two, three years ago and finishes top 20. Pacheco rebounds is top 20. Marin Hampton immediately pushes Najah Harris and becomes top 20. It comes down to the fact of once I get into these names, I want somebody that can finish top 20. So. And I just don't think that that's in the cars for Tony Pollard.

[Ryan Wormley]

Erickson, where do you have Pollard ranked this year?

[Andrew Erickson]

So I have him the high end RB3 range. So right now he's RB26. But like Jake alluded to, he's grouped in with a bunch of rookies. And it goes back to a lot of this draft strategy with some of these RB2 running backs is you're kind of weighing early season production versus late season production. So if you need someone to fill in the first couple weeks, okay, Tony Parr makes more sense. But if you can wait, if you're drafting a bench type of running back, then it makes way more sense to take an upside shot on one of these rookie running backs. So it's kind of like he's like grouped in with those guys. But the upside case, I agree with Jake, so I'm pushing back here on Tony Pollard as well. Something I've looked a lot more at when projecting running backs that bust the next year is how do they finish the season? You know, how do they do. In the second half of last year, Pollard was the third worst graded running back for PFF in the second half of the 2024 season. Now he was playing through injuries basically every single week. If you were following the are they playing tool on fantasy pros, Tony Pollard never practiced. Never practiced ever. Because this guy they had to put in a cryogenic chamber to basically get him ready for game day because Tasha Spears was never going to be healthy. And even though Callahan talked every single week, I want to take the workload off Tony Pollard. The guy is breaking down. So even if he can be a little bit more efficient, you know, from the days of Dallas when he was running alongside Ezekiel Elliott, I think that's the ideal way you use Tony Pollard. But I still don't think that's going to move the needle for him to score in fantasy production. I think Tajie Spears when he is healthy is a very capable running back and something that I didn't want to overlook from last year as well. Spears actually scored more red zone touchdowns than Tony Pollard did despite nearly half the touches in the red zone. So I don't think Tony Pollard is even a lockdown to score those red zone touches. In the Titans offense that we're still not sure how good could this offense be. I think average is being optimistic at best with a rookie quarterback. And if Tony Park's not going to capitalize on those red zone touches, I think that he's definitely going to be a committee. And I don't think that drafting him anywhere inside the top 24 running backs, I think that's way too aggressive.

[Ryan Wormley]

Callahan is still talking like that. I mean if you look at just on his player page and fantasypros.com the latest news. We have this from about two weeks ago. You know, Callahan said the team plans to be even more cognizant of Tony Pollard's workload this season. And he noted that Pollard carried the ball a lot in 2024 and in a perfect world, quote, we would have to have more of an even split with Pollard. Spears, he also referred to a three way split in the backfield this season. So he is talking in that same kind of line of thinking that you're, you're saying here, Erickson. So I, I think we all are in agreement on this one. Let's go to the wide receivers that we're avoiding. Erickson, who do you have here?

[Andrew Erickson]

I'm going to start things off with Tyree Kill for the Miami Dolphins. I just think that what we saw last year should not be ignored. I don't think that wide receivers entering age 31 coming off massive declines in efficiency should just be given a pass on that type of season. So last year Tyree Kill, wide receiver 33 in points per game. He only had two 100 yard games when Tuatanga Loyola was healthy last year and in those games 11 he was wide receiver 18 in points per game. So again the production cratered. The efficiency was nearly cut in half in terms of his yards per route run fell to 1.75. I think that speed receivers when they hit this age cliff, I don't think it's just going to get better now. Maybe he can bounce back a little bit from the efficiency drop off but at the same time should I be over investing in this Miami Dolphins offense? I still think that Jalen Waddle is a very capable wide receiver in his own right. He's much younger at age 26. He's been a wide receiver one before he. He's had. He had more 100 yard games with Tua than Terry killed it or the same amount. So they both had two. I think Waddle finished the season pretty strong as well. So I rather have Waddle really more than Terry Kill. I just afraid that Terry Kill is not going to get better and bounce back. It's just going to continue to decline.

[Ryan Wormley]

So I'm curious Jake, what you think about Hill. But I also want to loop in your first pick in this section. Who is Hill's teammate, Jalen Waddle. So we're avoiding on either side here this, this receiver room in Miami.

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, and Tyreek Hill. I Mean fringe wide receiver 1 At this point which is kind of saying that maybe not totally in on him. So I don't, I don't disagree too much especially when you talk about this point of career being speed and the main factor for Tyreek Hill. But I think it's just the Dolphins as a whole is we're expecting a lot. This is probably a make or break season. We talk, everybody talks about the Giants staff with Dable but I mean Donald McDonald here like we're talking about could be like it's it for him. Like this is enough excuses at this point. And it goes down to everything with two at the quarterback and just everything. Like I just, I'm really concerned about the Dolphins outside of Devon Achan. And one is like I don't disagree much on Hill. I'm a little bit more positive on Hill than I am for Waddle and I'm down on Waddle. But the funny thing is is like when I was looking at Waddle a few weeks ago and that was the first name that came to mind when we were talking about this in the slack is that I know his ADP has started to fall and his expert consensus rank has started to fall because I remember where it was and I remember that people are talking positively, Ericsson included. I'm not coming for Erickson. Not saying like he's talking positively about Waddle, but people are like, oh wa. And like if he stays healthy and everything, the opportunities here and Tyree kills falling off. But it seems to have cooled a little bit. Where I could see I'm presenting that to say I could see myself coming around on Jalen Waddle if he continues to slide back and kind of falls into now more of like wide receiver 30 off the board which before we're talking about wide receiver 23, 24 is because I just have a feeling we're still focused on that one year that Andrew's talking about and the second part of it that comes to the Dolphins as a whole. But third, at this point we're now talking four injuries to the knee and ankle on the one leg on his right leg if I'm not mistaken. And I'm just starting to get the feel just me. It's just like, like is a healthy Waddle a thing anymore? Like 100% healthy waddle. Like even if he's healthy, like similar to we're talking about Javante Williams is like does that player exist anymore? And I just have the hesitancy of like Jalen Waddle being that guy. The opportunity is there. The target should be there. Given the depth Char. I don't know if Waddle is that peak three years ago now Jalen Waddle that we know. I don't know if this offense is going to be as good as it was. I think the offense has been figured out a lot as we watched. We talked from a football perspective last year. A big part of the Dolphins is that the league adjusted as the league will do. They said, well screw this, we're going to stop trying to play you, man. We're still going to stop trying to play you close. We're just going to drop back an umbrella coverage basically and keep everything in front of us and good luck trying to get past us after the catch because we're just going to contain and they played contain and it stopp everybody across the board. So I just have concern of the Dolphins as a whole and that falls into having concerns for both Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. I do not want to take Jalen Waddle as my second Wide receiver as my third, then I think the risk is worth the upside.

[Ryan Wormley]

So would you rather have Jake out? I'm pulling it up now. So Tyree Kill is wide receiver 14 and Waddle is wide receiver 31. That's in consensus and half PPR. So would you rather take Hill even at that, you know, much higher cost?

[Jake Seeley]

No, actually, again, as I said, he keeps continuing to slide back a little bit, that being Waddle. So like at that cost, I mean, now you're talking about the George Pickens, Calvin Ridley range. And I'm more okay with that than Hill at that point. The bigger thing too is a lot of times when we're Talking about those 30 wide receivers being in that fifth, sixth round, usually I'm circling back to my running back. This comes down to draft tendencies and avoiding this. What I have is I have 26 to 40 for wide receivers, including Jalen Waddle. I have an enormous tier 5 just because there's so many values that I think are equitable.

[Ryan Wormley]

Eric's in kind of a similar question on, on the Waddle side of things, if you're avoiding Hill, does that mean that you are more aggressive on Waddle than Jake is laying out?

[Andrew Erickson]

Yes, I'm more aggressive on Waddle. I think that Jake laid out the case where the injuries are a real thing and you can't tell from looking at his games played because, oh, he hasn't missed that many games. But. But when you go back and you read the injury reports leading up to all these games, Waddle is almost always on all of these injury reports. So I think that's part of the reason why you've seen his efficiency drop off a little bit, especially last year. Again, quarterback issues aside, you know, how healthy was he? But I will say at the end of the year he did flash a little bit. You know, he went over 99 yards twice, over 13 fantasy points per game. He commanded nine plus targets in three of those last four games. And just the body of work with Waddle is so good again. 2022, he was wide receiver one. He was a wide receiver one as a rookie. And he did it in different ways. One year it was gobbling up a ton of volume Before Tyree Kill arrived the next year it was really strong efficiency. He's been a wide receiver one with this quarterback and this play caller before. So with that in his range of outcomes, being a wide receiver one when he's healthy, I think that he is worth the price. And as Jake said, and if the price does fall enough where that injury concern is captured. I think that it's worth the taking the shot on a jalen wall while acknowledging, yeah, this guy does get banged up pretty often.

[Ryan Wormley]

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[Greg Lod]

I'm Greg Lod and this is season two of the War on Drugs podcast, sir. We are back in a big way.

[Jake Seeley]

In a very big way. Real people, real perspectives.

[Greg Lod]

This is kind of star studded a little bit, man. We got Ricky Williams, NFL player, Heisman Trophy winner.

[Jake Seeley]

It just accounts compassionate choice to allow players all reasonable means to care for themselves. Music stars Marcus King, John Osborne from Brothers Osborne. We have this misunderstanding of what this.

[Ryan Wormley]

Quote unquote drug thing is.

[Jake Seeley]

Benny the Butcher, Brent Smith from Shinedown.

[Greg Lod]

Got be real from Cypress Hill, NHL enforcer Riley Cote, Marine Corps vet, MMA fighter Liz Caramouche.

[Ryan Wormley]

What we're doing now isn't working and.

[Jake Seeley]

We need to change things. Stories matter and it brings a face to them.

[Greg Lod]

It makes it real.

[Jake Seeley]

It really does. It makes it real.

[Greg Lod]

Listen to new episodes of the War on Drugs podcast Season 2 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and to hear episodes one week early and ad free with exclusive content. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcast.

[Ryan Wormley]

Foreign We've got one more wide receiver each that been getting to the quarterbacks and tight ends to end the show. Erickson, who is your last wide receiver?

[Andrew Erickson]

Wide receiver Debo Samuel for the Washington Commanders. Last year was really, really bad for Debo Samuel. 8.5 fantasy points per game. He went over 22 receiving yards one time in his last seven games played and that was despite Brandon Iuk's absence in the second half of the season. I know Debo was battling through some illness, playing through injuries, but that's what he does. He's always banged up. He's on a brand new team. They traded him for next to nothing to the commanders, the 49ers, they were going to cut Debo Samuel, so I just don't think that he is. I mean, he's on the back nine of his career. He's entering his age 29 season. And I think that going to a Cliff Kingsbury offense where we've seen Cliff Kingsbury at times struggle to come up with creative ways to use dynamic playmakers in space, it I feel like it took us half a season to get Tara McLaurin out of one spot on the outside to kind of get him going and move him around the formation a little bit more. So I think that Debo Samuel is just name brand with him. I think that if he's healthy, he can probably start the season out, you know, pretty productively, especially if Terry McLaurin, you know, has this holdout potentially go into the season. But then Worm, I think we talked about some of the other shows. Debo Sam will be the number one guy on my sell high list after week one. If he rips off a big 60 yard run after the catch touchdown, first guy on the list, the trade high is going to be Debo Samuel. So for those reasons again, if I had to draft him or he was on one of my teams like I would immediately be thinking when can I flip this guy? Because I've just seen this script play out so many times with an older receiver on a brand new team and usually doesn't end well.

[Ryan Wormley]

Yeah, I have nothing to add. We've talked about it on a recent show too. Like the Cliff Kingsbury point I think is a great one in terms of like he's not the guy. I trust us to use Deebo in the way he needs to be used. I'm in strong agreement here. Jake, what do you think about Debo as a fade?

[Jake Seeley]

As a fade, sure. But as a wide receiver four, where I think his ranking is right now, I'm going to be in on that mostly because it comes down to there's almost 150 targets between these. Also Rams trying to be the number two for Jaynan Daniels in his rookie season. And I'm not saying like, oh, he's going to get 150 targets, but we tried everything from Zacchaeus to Brown to Brown again, both of them and just all these options down. I mean even Luke McCaffrey and I think Zach Ertz is still going to get his 90ish targets and Echler, if he can stay healthy, will be involved. But I think that he's the clear number two and I think that this does help McLaurin and I'm not saying Deebo is going to come here and all of a sudden turn into the Debo from the 49ers. But let's also be honest, the Debo from the 49ers that everybody wants to happen again wasn't ever going to be a thing again anyway. That was a one year anomalous situation for Deebo Samuel. But as a wide receiver four, I'm going to be in on it. And that's really what it comes down to in the names that he's around. I have no problem with it. Now if he climbs because people are starting to say like, oh, okay, well he maybe is walking into 100 and 110 targets because he's the clear number two and he gets up into the conversation of a top 30, then I'm out. I think that's where I would Draw the line. So. But at this cost, I'm in.

[Ryan Wormley]

Yeah, the cost isn't that prohibitive. I think that is a fair counterpoint. I just would caution against anybody who looks at him and says like, oh, this late? You know, maybe there's some real upside here. Like, to your point, it's been since 2021 that he had that, that epic season, which was a fantastic season, obviously, but that was, you know, four years ago at this point. And I really don't think he's going to be like, get, you know, getting to boost his receiving stats with the rushing touchdowns that we've grown accustomed to when he's healthy. Like, I just don't see that really happening in Washington. Like, I, I would set the over under at two and a half rushing touchdowns this year. Like, I just don't really see them using him that way. And I think he needs that to make up for the lack of receiving production that has really been every year of his career except for 2021. So yeah, it's, it's fair. Point of the cost, though. Let's go to the last receiver here. Jake, who you got this one.

[Jake Seeley]

Maybe you guys can tell me if I'm just an idiot because I do.

[Ryan Wormley]

Not get the commenters will tell you if you're an idiot.

[Jake Seeley]

Okay, that's fair. How is rasheed rice wide receiver 19. Like, speaking of things that are not a thing anymore, even if rasheed rice was 100% healthy, which is still a question, even Rashee Rice is not suspended plays the entire year still a question. He's not clearly the number one anymore. We're just discounting everything Xavier Worthy did as a, as a rookie. We're just discounting this roster up and down like they have a multitude of options now where. Sure. Rasheed Rice first read by Patrick Mahomes a lot. Again, that roster Rasheed Rice on this team is different than Rasheed Rice coming back to what he's coming back to. I mean, you can even include. I don't think Royals is going to be much big of a thing. But like, you have him that they drafted. Like, maybe they get something finally out of Sky Moore. Marquise Brown's still on this team. Like, I just don't see the path to Rasheed Rice being the clear, definitive, no questions asked number one option for Patrick Mahomes, even if those other questions were answered with injury and suspension. So would I take Rice? Sure. Would I take Rice over Debo? Absolutely. Because there's a path to Rasheed Rice being a wide receiver. One still, that still could happen. But as wide receiver 19, no way on earth am I doing that. Like I like the names that are, he's in front of that I would take like DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Chris Olave, even Cortland Sutton, Devonta Smith and I could keep going down. I just don't get why he's there.

[Ryan Wormley]

Erickson, I'm very curious to hear what you, you have to say about this because we are in a slow draft together right now and you just took Xavier Worthy with Rashi Rice still on the board.

[Andrew Erickson]

This is the player I was most interested to see what Jake was going to say because I've definitely been on the more pessimistic side of Rashi Rice and trying to understand the upside case because that's why Jake, that's why I can tell you why people are drafting this high is because the upside because of the three games he had last year where he had a monster target share, he was averaging nearly 18 fantasy points per game. And we're just extrapolating that and saying, oh, this is going to be, this is going to be the 17 game pace. And this is where I think we get into so much trouble when we're just taking these small sample sizes. When this was before the Xavier Worthy breakout that that wasn't even a thing. Xavier Worthy was a really, really young rookie that didn't really know his place in the offense and it was Travis Kelsey. I think the next best receiver on the team at that time was Judas Michuster. I think that was the next guy that was running routes for the Chiefs. So I, I echo your concerns and hesitations about Rashee Rice. I, I get the appeal, the upside case and that's why he's a very, you know, boomer bust type of proposition and that's why he's going where he's going. But I also have concerns about any guy coming off a season ending injury and we're just going to pop him back in, expect he's going to just pick up right where he left off. When does that really happen? I feel like anytime it's a guy coming off a season end injury takes a month for him to kind of, you know, know get adjusted, feel mentally back to it. And it's not even necessarily a physical limitation. It's oh, am I there mentally? Do I trust my knee, do I trust my leg, do I trust my hamstring to do all these things that I was doing before I had a season ending injury. So I'm also with you with Being hesitant on Rice and the fact, I mean I just. I'd rather take Worthy, man. Like, that's where we saw Worthy was the guy down the stretch. Worthy was the guy that showed that he could win in multiple ways. We know he can take the top off the ball and he also took over the Rice role when Rice missed time and was really effective. So yeah, that's kind of how I.

[Jake Seeley]

Feel about the big play here, as you well know, is to say let somebody else draft Rashee Rice and then come knocking on the door after week three or four and be like, hey, I know you're tired of them. I'll take them and then buy low and there you go. Then you get Rashid Rice for the second half of the season.

[Andrew Erickson]

I think the price is the big thing. That's what it is because we're not getting any. Like there's no discount. There's no injury discount. There's no suspension. Like potential discounted. Locked and loaded. He's a top 20 wide receiver. He's going to pick up where he was last year.

[Jake Seeley]

You say Rasheed rice, wide receiver, 28, 29 somewhere around. I mean this. I wouldn't even brought him up, would you?

[Ryan Wormley]

Jake also draft Worthy ahead of him. He didn't listen with the names earlier, but is he in that?

[Jake Seeley]

I actually have them back to back. Yeah. And part of my as I threw the caveat in my rankings on the athlete, like I actually explained some of the wide receiver rankings and one of them was as of today, I would take Worthy over Rice because of all the questions we still have, this is still only June, the suspension and the injury. Even if the suspension gets completely wiped out, like that's just not even a thing anymore. I'd probably only move Rice up a few spots just because I do think there's a slightly higher ceiling than Worthy. But he would still probably top out only a spot or two in front of Worthy because I don't know that we're not leading into a season where it's. They have similar target shares and what Erickson just brought up, which I think gets overlooked a lot by people who don't know and I know everybody watching the show probably knows the game as much as we do. But I'm saying a lot of people might see it. People are box score looking. We'll see Xavier Worthy and the yards per catch and not really in the and realizing a lot of it was short to intermediate that he did after the catch and was kind of what Rasheed Rice was bringing before he got hurt.

[Ryan Wormley]

Let's go to the quarterbacks that we're avoiding here. We've got well I would say one each but Jake kind of picked the whole category.

[Jake Seeley]

I've got about 15.

[Ryan Wormley]

Yeah so. So what Jake picked was any non running quarterback besides Burrow. Erickson picked somebody who actually falls into that category. So Erickson, why don't you talk about Jared Goff who is your opponent pick first and then we'll get into Jake kind of avoiding this demographic as a whole.

[Andrew Erickson]

Well I mean credit to Jake because he hit on all the busts because that's what busts are. They're the guys that we over evaluate that don't add any value with their legs. Except for Joe Burrow because he's the most elite passer and he's kind of exception to the rules. So I'm glad that Jake added him there. But Jared Goff basically checks off all the boxes of a quarterback you don't want to draft. You're you're drafting him based on what he did did last year when it was a career high in terms of passing touchdown rate. 6.9 touchdown rate in 2024 was a career high. When you look at the fantasy spurs touchdown regression report, guess who's at the top of the list? Jared Goff. You have one of the toughest strength of schedules. You have him now playing outdoors as opposed to last year when all of his games were basically inside. Last year his splits weeks 11 through 18, he averaged over 25 fantasy points per game. Before that it was 16.5 points per game. QB2 level production before the defense basically had all of those injuries. You're losing Ben Johnson, that's a concern. We have more shifts across the offensive line. We just found out that Frank Ragnall, the center, the longtime center for the lines, he's retiring, he's not coming back. So the lines are really now thin up on the interior of their offensive line and they were the second healthiest offense last year. We talk about team level health regression, they're probably not going to be as healthy. So if one of one they get one more injury on that offensive line. Now you're running into real issues with Jared Goff who we know he can have one of the best he can do. Exactly did last year and he's still not a top five fantasy quarterback. So I think you're just drafting all risk. All things are going to go badly for Jared Goff when there's so many better quarterback picks on the board. So I can say very confidently I'm going to have basically zero of Jared Goff and any of my fantasy teams this year because, because he's just so clearly sticks out as this is a quarterback that's going to regress and he's not going to be worth his adp.

[Ryan Wormley]

I think it's worth highlighting too on golf. Just looking at the game logs from last year like the first 13 weeks of the season he finished 18th, 25th, 19th, 10th, 20th, 22nd.

[Andrew Erickson]

You couldn't use them.

[Ryan Wormley]

It was a very hot end of the season from weeks 14 to 17. So in the fantasy playoffs he was QB6, QB2, QB3, QB8. But the numbers in those games he threw for a three plus touchdowns in every one of those games. He threw for over 300 yards in three of those four games. And of course he had the game against Buffalo where he had 494 yards and five touchdowns. Like, like I don't want to overreact to a very hot finish and I don't want to underreact to Ben Johnson leaving. I, I think it is relevant that Jared Goff, by far his most successful fantasy seasons have been the years with guys like Ben Johnson and Sean McVay and we don't know what the new play caller is going to look like. Like I don't want to be the one taking the risk. Where he's going which is QB10, the guys going after him or around him, you know Kyler Murray and Bo Nix are right ahead of him. We know those guys are going to run right after him is Justin Herbert year two in the Greg Roman offense. Caleb Williams has all these better talent around him. Justin Fields who we all agree is going to run a ton. Purdy, Dak, Jordan, Love, Drake May, C.J. stroud, Trevor Lawrence. Those are all the other names in tier three around Jared Goffman. I would just much rather wait and take one of those guys than be the guy who says no. I think he's a different guy and I do think Jared Goff is a different quarterback than he was in those early Rams years. Of course like I don't think he is only a Ben Johnson merchant, but I am, I am not ignoring that factor. And again he doesn't run and, and there's just so many other names going later that I, that I like more. So I, I think I will basically have no Jared Goff this year.

[Andrew Erickson]

To your point too about where he's going. This is the quarterback tier, the middle tier where they go in adp. This is where all the bus quarterbacks come from. This QB8 to QB13 range. It's the middle tier where we're drafting these quarterbacks based they're getting propped up by last year's touchdown numbers. But they're more likely to finish closer to the guys behind them than the guys in front of them. Like we're not expecting Jared Goff to outscore any of these elite passers. So then why are we drafting right after the elite passers? But he's more likely to finish like a Trevor Lawrence, like a C.J. stroud. And to your point, those guys go so much cheaper. So it'd be. So it'd be a different conversation if Jared Goff was QB18 where I have him ranked. I would sure I'll draft Gary Goff, whatever. We're baking all the risk. But he's not. He's going as QB10, QB11, which is why I'm out.

[Ryan Wormley]

Well, it's one of those things too. Like there's such a clear top five. Like somebody has to go in those first few quarterbacks after that, that elite tier that I just don't want to be the first one to draft one of those quarterbacks, those first handful of quarterbacks. Because I really think from QB6 6 to QB18, you can make a compelling case for any of those guys to finish as a top six quarterback this year. So once you get past Lamar Allen Daniels, Hertz and Burrow, I just don't want to be drafting a quarterback early if I'm not getting one of those top five. And I say early relative to that next group of like 12 names. So yeah, I'm fully on board with Goff. Jake, you of course picked the whole group of non running quarterbacks besides Burrow. Walk us through that pick.

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, because Joe Burrow last year was actually the first quarterback over 20 points per game not getting at least 40 points from the running side only. And that was the first since Tom Brady. And to talk about Tom Brady is the Joe Burrow thing is that you are a prolific passer. We can count on your passing numbers every single year. And I don't even want to discount Joe Burrow because last year it was only 200 yards and wasn't again, it wasn't 40 points from the running side. But he still chipped in and he actually has chipped in 40 points a few years ago on the running side of things. So he still has a little bit there that similar to Baker Mayfield last season. There's a little bit chipped in. Baker Mayfield ran for over 300 and a few touchdowns. So Baker Mayfield Will probably be the closest to not falling into this group. But similar to CJ Stroud last year who consensus had as a top six quarterback coming off his rookie season, similar to Dak Prescott that's been up and down and up and down and up and down. And then you brought up Jared Goff. Is the reason they're so volatile is because it has to all come from their ar. When you don't run the ball, when you don't chip in the 40 points or even more on the rushing side of things for fantasy you add in volatility and you end in having to be prolific. You have to throw 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns, maybe 32 at minimum. But you have to be terrific. And if you have any type of a step back, CJ Stroud being last year the perfect example and again Dak Prescott right before him. If you just fall off just a little bit, heck we could talk Brock Preston like you just fall off a little bit. And it's not like you fell off like these running quarterbacks and became oh well he was QB3 but he fell to QB7. No, you go from like QB6 to QB21. Like it's enormous drop off. And the biggest thing is I'm glad you pulled in the Jared Goff thing to Erickson's point because you rattled off the fact that all these three touchdown games and you could argue that's prolific passing but still couldn't even crack the top 10 on some of those weeks because there's the yards didn't come with the touchdowns or vice versa. And that's just what it comes down to is I'm going to be way out on all of these quarterbacks. So much so that I'm way above consensus on Justin Fields because I'm just going to bank on the fact that hey, he has a thousand yards rushing upside. If he can just be Daniel Jones as a passer, which all it means is throwing for 3,000 yards and 15 touchdowns, guess what the thousand yards in the rushing side of things means he's going to be a top six seven quarterback. I will take another chance on Anthony Richardson even if he doesn't have the job. I will take chances on Bryce Young that maybe he's bringing in some rushing upside that we never saw before even at Alabama. But late last season he started calling his own number even at the goal line and I'm just going to take chances on those guys versus any of the Brock Purdy's or any of the Jared Goffs and the rest I'm not.

[Ryan Wormley]

Making the case for this but I want to at least ask the question is there a case to be made for maybe even including Joe Burrow in the category of of just avoid all non rushing quarterbacks because he had such a great season last year? Like is it fair to think that there might be some regression if you look at his career before last year he'd only finished higher than QB8 one time prior to this last season and it was the year he rushed for five touchdowns which went a long way towards helping with that. Like four 900 passing yards last year, 43 touchdowns, under 10 interceptions. Like I Jobur is a very very good quarterback. Like this is not to knock him but as a top five guy like I think that's the appropriate ranking for him. But is there a case to be made that instead of Joe Burrow at fifth because you know he does not give the rushing that you should just wait for one of these rushing guys and I'd rather take Justin Fields as QB13 instead of Joe Burrow's QB5. Is there a case to be made.

[Jake Seeley]

For that Jake, depending on when he goes overall I don't think so because you still have three seasons outside his injury season. Three seasons of 20 plus points per game which that's why I say he puts in prolific category of Tom Brady. It comes down to even Tom Brady's worse. Like it had to be God awful worse of a season. I don't think that's in Joe Burrows wheelhouse especially with the weapons he has. And then even if it's only 200 yards and 33 on the ground it's enough of a little tick up because he is so prolific. But that being said I do have him in a tier of his own. He's sitting there right by himself after the big four and before this next group of all these names of Baker Mayfield, Drake May, Kyler Murray and the rest of the But I think that if overall like if you're going to say somebody the first four quarterbacks go and then all of a sudden it's like oh I got to take Joe Burrow in the fourth because all those quarterbacks went in the third or in the fifth somewhere around there then I'd be like yeah, I think at that point it's a little pricey just because there is a slight risk. I don't think a lot but there's enough. The biggest thing I come down to is not it's not our expert consensus rank. It's ADP currently as of today has Hertz behind Burrow. That's the answer to your question of like what's absurd that should not be answered happening Erickson.

[Ryan Wormley]

Let's go to the tight ends we're avoiding here. We'll go quickly on this because I want to leave time for some speed round stuff at the end of the episode. But who, who's the tight end you're avoiding?

[Andrew Erickson]

Oh, if we're gonna go quickly, then I probably shouldn't have picked a, a Ravens player, so I guess that's my fault. Sorry. Sorry to the producers. Mark Andrews is my tight end.

[Ryan Wormley]

I agree with you on this one. Okay. This isn't like a, this pick. Like I also. Mark Andrews.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, I was really big on Mark Andrews last year and it just, just, it was so painful to just watch every single week until the second half downs. Yes, until he scored scoring a bunch of touchdowns from week five onward. Again finished as fantasy tight end five. But the ride there was nowhere near a top five finish because again, I had him on all these leagues. He was tight end 10 in points per game. He was tight in 21 in terms of expected points per game. And I just think that we're just waiting for these other guys to take on bigger role. I mean, Isaiah likely coaching staff loves him. Super talented guy. I think he's going to take on a bigger role. They're talking about ways to get him more involved. DeAndre Hopkins still can play a role. Man, if he's going to have any role in the team, where would it be? Probably in the red zone. Okay, so that's taking away potentially one or two more scores from Mark Andrews. I know that he is Lamar's guy in the red zone. And is he going to score touchdowns? Yes, but he's a touchdown reliant tight end that you then have to draft as tight end 6. He's tight in 6 in ECR, tight end 8 and ADP. He was barely a top 10 tight end last year. Again, he finished there overall because of the games he played. But points per game, he wasn't a difference maker for you. He had to score or else he was going to be a bust in your lineup. And that just puts him with every other tight end. Again, if you score, great. If you don't, you're a bust. Okay. I can get those tight ends so much later than Mark Andrews. And again, if he gets hurt, Isaiah likely I feel more confident about, oh yeah, this guy's going to be in the lead elite tight end producer. So I'd rather just take a shot on Isaiah likely. Maybe Andrews doesn't stay healthy. He's a little bit older. So, yeah, I'm out. On Mark Andrews.

[Ryan Wormley]

I do think he will still score touchdowns, but I agree, like, in any game he doesn't score a touchdown. He will hurt you. In fantasy, I don't think he's. He will have the catches. I don't think he'll have the yard.

[Jake Seeley]

So he's a tight end basically.

[Ryan Wormley]

Yeah. Right.

[Andrew Erickson]

But he's, but he's an expensive type.

[Ryan Wormley]

He's not like a tier one difference maker anymore. Like, I'm not worried about Hopkins in terms of like taking away like, Derek Henry is the only reason to think that Andrews isn't going to be like the first option to score a touchdown every time they get close to the goal line. Like in, in any series where Derek Henry's not scoring a touchdown. If they're getting close, they're looking to Andrews, but that's it. Like, that is where he's going to give you the value.

[Andrew Erickson]

I would say too. I mean, Rashad Bateman had a lot of red zone targets last year too.

[Ryan Wormley]

So, I mean, I think Andrews will have more this year. Like, I mean, last year was pretty close.

[Andrew Erickson]

I mean, I know Andrews, I think had 11 touchdowns, but Bateman had.

[Jake Seeley]

You want me to pull the pin on the green and throw it in here and run away? As I say this, this is why I almost put Zay Flowers in the list because wide receiver 35 and fantasy points per game last year, and yet everybody's like, oh, they're going to drop him as a wide receiver too. Again, not that Hopkins is going to take a ton, but there's a litany options on this team. Oh, by the way, that Lamar Jackson guy, worm knows this. 40 plus touchdowns and he still only was wide receiver 35 in points per game. Like, can we just stop and stop with this year after year after year after year of like, oh, the Ravens have somebody, they're going to be top 20. Like, no, this is just who the Ravens are. They're. They, they win by sharing it and it just, it's what they do.

[Ryan Wormley]

Well, I will be, I will be drafting Lamar, I'll be drafting Derek Hedry, and I might be taking flyers on Bateman if he's going really late. I will not be drafting a lot of Mark Andrews. I will not be drafting a lot of Zay Flowers. Like, I, I am with you guys on, on fading those guys. Jake, who's your tight end you're avoiding?

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, it's funny, I thought about the quarterback thing, I basically should have said any not top three tight end and then just, I'll just take whoever's left at the end of the draft because that's what if I miss on the top three, including Kittle, which I love Kittle's value. I'm just like, you know what? I'm just going to wait and see who's there in the last round because one of those names that's going higher than I think he should go is Jake Ferguson. Like, Jake Ferguson barely was relevant last year and now you have the trade of George Pickens and people are like, oh, Jake Ferguson, yeah, I'm still going to take him as a fringe tight end one. No, like the dude, what was he? Ericsson are you looking at right now? Because you have a quizzical face. What was he like, tight end, 19 in points per game or something Ridiculously low last year. I know it was bad. And again I go back to the fact that even with Dak, it wasn't that good. And Lynn, I know without Dak, people are going to make that argument, but I just don't want a tight end who's a third option. Clearly. Who was volume Reliant? Evan Ingram. You could throw into this conversation on the Broncos, like all these tight ends that you basically need 120 targets to become even top 10. I'm just not going to take. So Jake Ferguson kind of falls. It's kind of like the Jared Goff of tight ends. I'm just out on these guys.

[Ryan Wormley]

Let's get to the speed round here. To wrap things up, I posed a question on X Twitter, is this player a trap? Who are some of the guys you're fading and avoiding this season, the landmines you guys want to be avoiding? So these are the answers we got. I'll give to you. You we're up against on the clock. So just very quickly like, yes, no, you agree or disagree and then we'll move on. I just want to run through these since I did ask everybody on social. By the way, some of the answers we got we already talked about in the show. Debo, Samuel Tyree, Kill, Ken Walker, all were submitted by users as well. So they agreed with us on those guys. A lot of tier two running backs. So the first one here, Ashton Genty.

[Andrew Erickson]

Erickson, I'm in drafting.

[Ryan Wormley]

Yes, Jake.

[Jake Seeley]

And at the end of the first.

[Ryan Wormley]

Round, Christian McCaffrey, Jake 100%.

[Jake Seeley]

And as long as we know he's healthy from day one that we have time to find that out.

[Andrew Erickson]

Erickson no caveats. Yes.

[Ryan Wormley]

And Devon H.N.

[Jake Seeley]

Erickson and Jake not in at US cost, but in if that makes sense. Jonathan Taylor in second round.

[Andrew Erickson]

In, out.

[Ryan Wormley]

Some tier three running backs as well. James Cook. Erickson.

[Andrew Erickson]

Not until he signs that contract. So right now I'm out.

[Jake Seeley]

Jake, I'm in. Because his ADP isn't that high.

[Ryan Wormley]

Jake, Chase Brown.

[Jake Seeley]

Oh, I'm in. I'm above consensus quite a bit.

[Ryan Wormley]

Erickson always.

[Andrew Erickson]

Chase Brown season.

[Ryan Wormley]

Alvin, Kamara. Erickson out.

[Jake Seeley]

Jake in is the only option. Shuck's going to be a thing. I can't believe it.

[Ryan Wormley]

Handful of wide receivers here. Jake, Devonte, Adams.

[Jake Seeley]

I'm in. I think there's a non zero chance he could push Nakua for a similar points per game number.

[Andrew Erickson]

Erickson very much in.

[Ryan Wormley]

Debro very much in as well. By the way, if you look at his rankings, Travis Hunter. Erickson gonna say no.

[Andrew Erickson]

I'm out.

[Jake Seeley]

Jake strong in.

[Ryan Wormley]

Strong in. How about Roma Dunes? A. Jake.

[Jake Seeley]

Ooh, hesitant. N. Erickson.

[Ryan Wormley]

N. Michael Pittman. Erickson and Dirt cheap out. Chris Olave.

[Jake Seeley]

Jake in.

[Ryan Wormley]

Erickson out. Out.

[Jake Seeley]

He doesn't want any Saints.

[Andrew Erickson]

No.

[Ryan Wormley]

Last one. Tight end. You knew somebody was going to suggest it. Kyle Pitts. Erickson inner out.

[Andrew Erickson]

Not until he's on a new team and not injured.

[Ryan Wormley]

So, yeah, he also, by the way, there was a report earlier today as we were recording this, that he has a strain in his foot and that's why he's not practicing at ota. Jake in or out on Kyle Fitz?

[Jake Seeley]

Oh, here, I'll give you this. He had more points per game than Jake Ferguson. I looked it up. He was tight in 29. Jake Ferguson. Where is Kyle Pitts going? What's his ADP?

[Andrew Erickson]

He's at 100.

[Ryan Wormley]

I'll pull it up here. He's ranked tight end 17. He is. ADP is also tight end 17.

[Jake Seeley]

17 at that. I'll take a flyer because he would be my last pick of the draft. I'd be in at point that if it gets close to tight end one again, no.

[Ryan Wormley]

All right, we'll go ahead and wrap up on the always fun Kyle Pitts discussion. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Those are the players we're avoiding. Hopefully we come back the next time we do a show together. We can bring some positivity for Jake and Erickson. I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at the fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.

[Jake Seeley]

Foreign.

[Greg Lod]

English I'm Greg Lod, and this is season two of the War on Drugs podcast.

[Jake Seeley]

Last year, a lot of the problems of the drug war. This year, a lot of the biggest names in music and sports.

[Greg Lod]

This kind of star studded a little bit, man.

[Jake Seeley]

We met them at their homes, we met them at their recording studios. Stories matter, and it brings a face to to him.

[Greg Lod]

It makes it real.

[Jake Seeley]

It really does. It makes it real.

[Greg Lod]

Listen to new episodes of the War on Drugs Podcast Season 2 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

[Ryan Wormley]

This is an iHeart podcast.