FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast - Derek Brown’s Biggest Busts To Avoid in 2025 (Ep. 1644)

Summary

Podcast Summary: FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast - Derek Brown’s Biggest Busts To Avoid in 2025 (Ep. 1644)

Release Date: August 9, 2025
Hosted By: Chris Welsh
Guest: Derek Brown

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Introduction

In Episode 1644 of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd," hosted by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume, Chris Welsh welcomes Derek Brown to discuss the looming challenges in fantasy football for the 2025 season. The primary focus centers on identifying potential busts—players whose high draft positions may not translate into expected fantasy performance. Brown and Welsh delve into three key players: Kyron Williams, Chuba Hubbard, and Xavier Worthy, analyzing their prospects and offering strategic advice to fantasy managers.

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Bust #1: Kyron Williams (Timestamp: 01:07)

Derek Brown's Analysis:

Kyron Williams emerges as the first potential bust. Despite being ranked RB12 overall in the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and securing a significant contract, Brown questions his draft value. He highlights last season's performance, where Williams was ranked RB10 for the Rams but lacked efficiency and pass-game utility.

"If Kyron Williams is this volume dependent back, then we're like, oh, he's getting everything. That's really what fuels his upside if he's not that guy." – Derek Brown [01:07]

Brown points out the emergence of Jarquez Hunter's role in the backfield, which may dilute Williams' opportunities. Additionally, the Rams have historically been bottom five in target share for running backs, indicating limited usage in the passing game.

Chris Welsh's Counterpoints:

Welsh acknowledges the potential bust but offers a nuanced perspective, citing Williams' consistent performance in the latter half of the previous season. He emphasizes that Williams was a top 10 running back from Week 10 onwards, questioning whether the Rams' offensive strategy will significantly shift to limit Williams' role.

"The entire second half of the season he's a top 10 running back. They just paid him." – Chris Welsh [02:30]

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Bust #2: Chuba Hubbard (Timestamp: 04:32)

Derek Brown's Concerns:

Moving to the second potential bust, Chuba Hubbard is scrutinized for his draft position as a top 20 running back. Brown argues that Hubbard's performance was a "perfect storm" scenario, bolstered by unexpected opportunities when Miles Sanders left mid-season. With the addition of Rico Dowdle and Trevor ETN, Hubbard's role may be further diminished.

"Trevor ETN is as good if not a better receiving back than both of those guys." – Derek Brown [06:27]

Brown contends that Hubbard may regress to a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 role, challenging his value at an RB1 price tag in fantasy drafts.

Chris Welsh's Rebuttal:

Welsh counters by highlighting Hubbard's consistent performance in the initial nine weeks, where he was the seventh highest-scoring running back in half PPR formats. He also notes Hubbard's involvement in the passing game, which provides a reliable floor.

"He was the 11th scoring running back. He was a top 12 running back in fantasy essentially through the second half of the season that he played." – Chris Welsh [05:04]

Welsh emphasizes that Hubbard's receiving stats demonstrate his utility, making him a safer pick despite Brown's reservations.

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Bust #3: Xavier Worthy (Timestamp: 13:51)

Derek Brown's Critique:

Xavier Worthy is identified as the ultimate bust of the 2025 season. Drafted as a top 24 wide receiver, Brown predicts disappointment due to Worthy's limited target share and role within the offense. He underscores Worthy's performance before the team's offensive adjustments, where he ranked 51st in fantasy points per game.

"He was the wide receiver 51 in fantasy points per game. He only drew a 13.9 target share." – Derek Brown [15:00]

Brown argues that upon the return of Rasheed Rice from suspension, Worthy's role will revert to a stretching passer with minimal red-zone involvement, limiting his upside and justifying his low ranking in fantasy projections.

Chris Welsh's Observation:

Welsh acknowledges the complexity surrounding Worthy's performance but maintains that his role remains inconsistent and overly dependent on circumstances such as Rice's availability and the quarterback's deep-ball efficiency.

"He's a guy that's going to max out in that 6 to 7 or 8 range even in the best of circumstances." – Derek Brown [16:31]

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Tips to Bust-Proof Your Fantasy Football Team (Timestamp: 10:35)

Derek Brown offers three strategic tips to avoid drafting potential busts:

1. Don’t Expect Last Year's Stats to Repeat:

   • Recognize that player performance can fluctuate year over year.
   • Avoid relying solely on past performance metrics.
   • Quote: "Do not expect last year's results to repeat." – Derek Brown [10:35]

2. Avoid Blindly Following Rankings and ADP:

   • Use rankings and Average Draft Position (ADP) as guides, not gospel.
   • Trust in content creators and your analytical process instead of the consensus.
   • Quote: "Fade the echo chamber. Don’t follow blindly." – Derek Brown [12:50]

3. Follow Your Own Process and Trusted Sources:

   • Develop a personalized drafting strategy.
   • Rely on trusted analysts and data-driven insights to inform your picks.
   • Quote: "Follow your own process, follow voices and content creators you trust." – Derek Brown [12:50]

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Final Thoughts

Chris Welsh and Derek Brown conclude the episode by encouraging fantasy managers to engage with the community by sharing their own busts and strategies to mitigate risks. They emphasize the importance of informed decision-making and adapting to evolving player roles and team dynamics.

"Good luck avoiding all of those busts in your drafts this coming season." – Chris Welsh [17:15]

The discussion underscores the volatile nature of fantasy football, where player valuations can significantly impact team success. By critically evaluating player performances and adhering to strategic drafting principles, managers can enhance their chances of a successful fantasy season.

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Note: This summary omits all advertisements, intros, and outros to focus solely on the content-driven discussions between Chris Welsh and Derek Brown.

Transcript

[Podcast Host]

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[Chris Welsh]

Welcome into Fantasy Pros on the fantasy football side, I'm Chris Welsh and today who are some busts that we've got to avoid? Well, we've got Derek Brown here to tell us how and who to avoid. Now of course these guys might not be players that we like completely moving away from on an undrafted list, but it's more about we really don't like the value. And obviously the production based on the value is going to bust. So how and and who to avoid in the bus market? Dbro's got you covered and D bro. Let's just jump right into it. Dbro's bust number one for the season is who?

[Derek Brown]

Man, I know he just got paid and people are going to hate this. This is Kyron Williams. He's RB 1226 overall in the ECR and I I can't rank Kyron Williams that high. I can't draft Kyron Williams that high and I know he was the RB10 last year. Welshy, I get it and I know he was their guy. He was top two and snap share, opportunity share, red zone touches for the Rams last year. I get that he's a paid player now and congrats for Kyron and on getting the fat check. But the efficiency wasn't there last year. Welsh, I think Jarquez Hunter is going to factor into this backfield and if Kyron Williams doesn't return with those top five usage numbers in this offense, he doesn't have the efficiency and he doesn't have the pass game utility to bail him out. The Rams have not been thrown to the running backs. The Kyron Williams as a receiving that narrative died with him as a prospect in college. It hasn't happened in the NFL. They've been bottom five in target share to the running back position and I don't see that changing in the year 2025. So if Kyron Williams is this volume dependent back then we're like, oh, he's getting everything. That's really what fuels his upside if he's not that guy. If the 95 snapshares drop to 70% 65% the Kyron Williams is an RB2A volume field RB2 for a player that last year ranked Outside the top 35 running backs Welsh per fantasy points data in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt and yards are to contact per attempt. This is not a player that I want to spend an RB1 or at least pay an RB1 price tag for in fantasy for 2025. I can't do it.

[Chris Welsh]

Well, if ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas as we were told and that it wasn't planned this way. But I'm kind of on the opposite side of a lot of these bus. Specifically this one is tough. I actually wanted to bust Kyron Williams coming into this season. But all the same things you just talked about with Hunter are the same things we said last year about Corum and the year before those things. I'm not saying you, I'm saying the narrative, the public narrative of Kyra Williams every season is that they will stop using him. They will use this other great back that's there and they don't. From weeks 10 on, he didn't play in week 18. From weeks 10 through 17 he was the 10th century scoring running back in half PPR double digit points scored every single week. From week 12 on. Week 10 on he was inside the top 10. They just, we haven't seen the McVeigh offense that has decided to use some committee approach and they just paid Kyron Williams. I get where you're going because it doesn't feel great. Especially in a pass receiving RB world where you just saw Devon Achan go and you know, you see Jameer Gibbs and you even look at like Bucky Irving who's a pounder but he can catch ball the backfield and then you look at Kyron Williams and you go oh, I don't know if I can do it. But he does do it in that offense. He does it year after year. This. I mean again the entire second half of the season he's a top 10 running back. They just paid him. And it seems like played over narratives. This is a tough one. I think I'm a little bit closer at cost than outside of a bust here. But I get where you're going with it.

[Derek Brown]

I get it. This, this feels like all the reasons that everybody wanted to draft Rashad White outside of the contract. This feels like all the reasons that everybody wanted to draft Rashad White. And Rashad White was the guy until inter super talented rookie explosive running back Bucky Irving last year. And I think that that's what's going to happen to Kyron Williams. Jarquez Hunter is going to factor into this backfield and Kyren can still be the lead guy, but an RB1 price tag can't do it.

[Chris Welsh]

Bus number 2 is another running back and I can tell you as a little tease here in just a tiny bit, Dbro's got his biggest bust of the 2025 season coming up and that is saved for the end. But we've got one more running back that we're going to hit here and this is another one. I mean I feel like you're picking on me, picking on another guy that I like and I'm actually going to just jump in here before you bust him out. And it's Chuba Hubbard. Chuba Hubbard is going to be one of your biggest busts as far as ADP goes. He's a top 20 RB in there. Rico Doddle was outed, which I think or was brought in, which I think potentially has some people concern I would say. Before you start to bust him I want to hear where your narrative goes with it. Because chuba from weeks 10 through 16 he didn't play in 17 and 18 so I'm not going to add that. So I'm obviously making a little bit of case for myself here. But in half PPR he was the 11th scoring running back. He was a top 12 running back in fantasy essentially through the second half of the season that he played. We also saw some big volume. We saw the offense pick itself back up. Is Rico Dowdle coming into town enough to not make him at least even like a solid floor rb. I think based on what we know what his upside is, which we saw last year, it being a top 12 running back to where he's being drafted. I kind of see him as a value. But what say you and why is he a bus for you?

[Derek Brown]

So I think we cannot be expecting last year to repeat and I think this is a perfect scenario for Chuba Hubbard. Last year was a perfect run out if you look at what happened for Chuba Hubbard. So Miles Sanders left week 10 and he was out weeks 10 through 17. If you look at the beginning usage for Chuba Hubbard of the season, I think that's closer to what this team wants for Chuba Hubbard or what they want for this backfield. So before so weeks one through three before I think Carolina figured out okay Miles Sanders really didn't have the juice anymore. Okay, Rico Dowdle, Trevor ETN do have the juice before they realized that Sanders just didn't have it anymore. You had Chuba Hubbard playing 54 to 58% of the snaps, the red zone rushing opportunities. Hubbard had three and Miles Sanders had two. And I understand this is a really small sample size but even if you look at okay, the first nine weeks of the season when Miles Sanders there, Chuba Hubbard wasn't playing this bell cow role. He only ran a route on 48.6% of dropbacks. He had a 9.7% target share and he's not receiving has not been his calling card. So again a player we are putting everything on Hubbard. He needs to own the backfield and the early downs. And after a season where they asked Chuba Hubbard and he answered it and go out and be the bell cow, he's a substandard receiving back, they go out and they add Rico Dowdle who is coming off a surprising thousand yard season of his own. Trevor ETN is as good if not a better receiving back back them both of those guys. So you look at the small sample before they realized Sanders just was cooked. This was a split backfield after Sanders was out is really where we saw Hubbard truly take off because before that he wasn't getting a ton of routes at least, I mean he wasn't running 50% of routes on drop backs. He, his pass game utility wasn't great. He wasn't good as a receiver for the entirety of the year. So Hubbard, I think this was a perfect storm scenario for him last year and after that type of season, what did Carolina do? The clearest picture we have to look at what teams think about players and how they want to build the roster is through the draft and through free agency. And in both of those outlets Carolina said we need more running backs. And yes, a lot of people say that for Jonathan, Jonathan Brooks and say well that's because he's not going to play. We also need to understand this could be an indictment upon who, who Chuba Hubbard is as a player and what his role could be in 2025 with Rico Dowdle eating into the early down roles, maybe the red zone and Trevor ETN eating into the pass game utility. And if all that comes to fruition, Hubbard maybe is just a low end RB2 or a high end RB3 if this backfield doesn't just get shifted up or split up into two different pieces, but maybe three if you believe ETN.

[Chris Welsh]

Is going to like Take a bite out of this. I suppose I could see where you're going and that the positive is he's already been drafted as kind of a low RB2. And just a couple of things to just add in here. Just in my argument of him that weeks one through nine of, of if I know, I guess you were saying more of weeks one through three, but weeks one through nine, because I gave you my side of 10 through 16, guess what? Weeks one through nine, he was a better running back. He was a seventh scoring running back in half PPR during that time. And on the receiving side, he had four catches or more in five of the first six weeks and he had four catches in three straight games to end out the year. So they're getting the ball in his hands in multiple spots. They did bring in some others. And that leads us to, I think, an interesting discussion how to bust proof your teams, because we are solely talking on how to avoid busts in this. You gave us two players that you think are a bust. You actually said the first scenario here, DBRO is going to give three tips to bust proof your team. And I'm going to just set you up into the first one because I just want you to rattle all three off. Dbro, you said don't expect last year's stats to repeat or results to repeat when you were talking about Chuba Hubbard. And that is your number one in the first of the top three on how to bust proof your team.

[Derek Brown]

Yeah, and this comes down to we, we see so many people, whether this is the RB one overall and ranks the wide receiver one or how you want to look at all this, that people expect and they could say that they don't. But the rankings and the narratives and the consensus, the, the generalized consensus out there that says otherwise, where they people are expecting last year's results to repeat to a certain extent, you're going to find +EV and better EV and you're going to avoid some of these busts. If you already understand that. Yes, we say this every year, Welsh. We get to week seven and we say, wow, things are so wildly different than what we thought coming into the year. But that's not how we approach drafts. That's not how a lot of people approach rankings. They say, oh, well, I've seen that happen. That's what's going to happen in the next season. Except it doesn't. So I'm not telling people to do that at every juncture of their draft. But the points of the draft where you're expecting, okay, well, the RB1 overall last year probably isn't going to be the RB1 overall of this year, or the RB or the wide receiver one overall or some of these players that were stretch run heroes that don't reprise those roles in the next season. So do not expect last year's results to repeat. Also, you should not be following blindly whatever site you're drafting on. You don't need to be following these rankings and ADP sets blindly. You need to lean into content creators that you trust, your own process and the homework that you're doing. Whether that's on Fantasy Pros, using the draft wizard, using cheat sheets, following sharp people and they're creating content and stuff, or your own process. You need to follow that over following these blind rankings and ADP sets that are on these sites, which are just just a collection of the aggregate. And that's Follow me into my third tip here. Follow your own process, follow people you trust and fade the echo chamber. So many people get in so much trouble with saying, yeah, but that email right after the draft's gonna come out and I'm gonna get laughed out of the room. I'm gonna get a D plus and it's not gonna be good. And follow your own process and follow voices and content creators you trust. Don't follow all this stuff blindly.

[Chris Welsh]

And if you're looking for the biggest bust, not just in DBROs but the rest, if you're looking for the biggest targets, you're looking for the best strategy. You're looking for all the ranks to put into your process, not just blindly following. We've got so much for you to help create and better your process with the Fantasy Pros Draft Kit. Go and check it out today. Fantasypros.com kit. You can check out our premium content on there as well for free by claiming your three day trial of fantasy pros [e-mail] premium. And heck, if you guys want, you could save that free trial right up until your draft day. If you've only got one draft, you can use it. Check out the premium articles, the premium content. But don't be afraid to go over there fantasyprose.com kit because there's lots of great stuff in there. Go and check it out today. This leads us to the final in the bus tips Dbros ultimate bust of 2025 and I hate it. I hate it. So say it. Get out of here with this bust.

[Derek Brown]

Xavier Worthy, man, it's got to be Xavier Worthy. He is going as a top 24 wide receiver in a lot of different spots right now in ECR wide receiver 26 or ADP wide receiver 26. I, I, I can't draft him at that spot. I know Rasheed Rice is going to miss a little bit of time to suspension and that's still up in the air. But Worthy, I think he's going to, as long as Rice is on the field, whenever he's out there, I think he's going to reprise the same role that he had last year and that's as a field stretcher in this offense. Because the only time we saw him really hit the ground running is back into the season when he was in the Rasheed rice role. Weeks one through twelve this dude was the wide receiver 51 in fantasy points per game. He only drew a 13.9 target share. He had a 12.18 odd and his design target rate was at 13.2%. He wasn't getting open Welsh amongst one hundred and twenty four qualifying wide receivers in that stretch. That's twelve weeks of the season, dude. Twelve weeks one hundred and twenty four wide receivers. He was 96th in separation and 111th in route win rate per fantasy points data. Those numbers are terrible dude. And it's not until they put him in that high end design target role that he really kind of caught his caught fire towards the end of the year. And that's the Rasheed Rice roll. So when Rice is back, Worthy is not playing this role. Worthy can play the Rice role, Rice cannot play the Worthy role. And Worthy is going to be used to stretch the field. So with weeks 13 through 17, yeah sure, he was the wide receiver 21 in fantasy points per game. His ADOT dropped to 6.3 and his design target rate went up to 25.6. I can't draft a guy where I'm like okay, if he's in that role but Rice is coming back. Well, he's gonna be good in that role. Okay, but when Rice comes back, he's back into what field? Stretching role. And Mahomes has been quietly one of the worst deep ball passers in the NFL over the last two years. I just can't pay that type of price. If you were to tell me Xavier Worthy was going as a a mid wide receiver 3, low end wide receiver 3 and stuff. Sure, I'm willing to dive in on that. But too many people are drafting him as a top 24 wide receiver right now or a top 30 wide receiver. And because of the archetype of wide receiver he is because he hasn't been getting open and because of Even if you look at the size of worth, unless they're feeding him gadget touches, what is he a guy you're going to expect to to spike 10 to 12 touchdowns and that save his fantasy season? Probably not. He's a guy that's going to max out in that 6 to 7 or 8 range even in the best of circumstances because he doesn't have the size to be a red zone guy. So no, I I cannot draft Xavier Worthy where he's going because Rasheed Rice is the number one, the clear number one in this offense and it's not worthy.

[Chris Welsh]

But when will he be there? Based on the Jordan Addison suspension, I do not hold out hopes that Rasheed Rice is going to get a nice little small suspension, but we'll have to see that could play a big role in it. Xavier Worthy dbro's Biggest Bust what do you guys think? Do you think that's the biggest bust of the season? Drop a comment below and drop your biggest bust. Plus, if you got any great tips for people how to avoid busts on your team, there's guys that are going to ruin it. Again, not saying that they are players that you're completely avoiding, but based on value and the players that you're passing on, real high opportunity to ruin your team. You guys drop comments below on what you think. For Debro, I'm Chris Welch. Thank you guys for hanging out with us. Good luck avoiding all of those busts in your drafts this coming season. We'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.

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[Derek Brown]

Ah, come on.

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