Podcast Summary: FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast - Derek Brown’s Biggest Busts To Avoid in 2025 (Ep. 1644)
Release Date: August 9, 2025
Hosted By: Chris Welsh
Guest: Derek Brown
Introduction
In Episode 1644 of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd," hosted by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume, Chris Welsh welcomes Derek Brown to discuss the looming challenges in fantasy football for the 2025 season. The primary focus centers on identifying potential busts—players whose high draft positions may not translate into expected fantasy performance. Brown and Welsh delve into three key players: Kyron Williams, Chuba Hubbard, and Xavier Worthy, analyzing their prospects and offering strategic advice to fantasy managers.
Bust #1: Kyron Williams (Timestamp: 01:07)
Derek Brown's Analysis:
Kyron Williams emerges as the first potential bust. Despite being ranked RB12 overall in the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and securing a significant contract, Brown questions his draft value. He highlights last season's performance, where Williams was ranked RB10 for the Rams but lacked efficiency and pass-game utility.
"If Kyron Williams is this volume dependent back, then we're like, oh, he's getting everything. That's really what fuels his upside if he's not that guy." – Derek Brown [01:07]
Brown points out the emergence of Jarquez Hunter's role in the backfield, which may dilute Williams' opportunities. Additionally, the Rams have historically been bottom five in target share for running backs, indicating limited usage in the passing game.
Chris Welsh's Counterpoints:
Welsh acknowledges the potential bust but offers a nuanced perspective, citing Williams' consistent performance in the latter half of the previous season. He emphasizes that Williams was a top 10 running back from Week 10 onwards, questioning whether the Rams' offensive strategy will significantly shift to limit Williams' role.
"The entire second half of the season he's a top 10 running back. They just paid him." – Chris Welsh [02:30]
Bust #2: Chuba Hubbard (Timestamp: 04:32)
Derek Brown's Concerns:
Moving to the second potential bust, Chuba Hubbard is scrutinized for his draft position as a top 20 running back. Brown argues that Hubbard's performance was a "perfect storm" scenario, bolstered by unexpected opportunities when Miles Sanders left mid-season. With the addition of Rico Dowdle and Trevor ETN, Hubbard's role may be further diminished.
"Trevor ETN is as good if not a better receiving back than both of those guys." – Derek Brown [06:27]
Brown contends that Hubbard may regress to a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 role, challenging his value at an RB1 price tag in fantasy drafts.
Chris Welsh's Rebuttal:
Welsh counters by highlighting Hubbard's consistent performance in the initial nine weeks, where he was the seventh highest-scoring running back in half PPR formats. He also notes Hubbard's involvement in the passing game, which provides a reliable floor.
"He was the 11th scoring running back. He was a top 12 running back in fantasy essentially through the second half of the season that he played." – Chris Welsh [05:04]
Welsh emphasizes that Hubbard's receiving stats demonstrate his utility, making him a safer pick despite Brown's reservations.
Bust #3: Xavier Worthy (Timestamp: 13:51)
Derek Brown's Critique:
Xavier Worthy is identified as the ultimate bust of the 2025 season. Drafted as a top 24 wide receiver, Brown predicts disappointment due to Worthy's limited target share and role within the offense. He underscores Worthy's performance before the team's offensive adjustments, where he ranked 51st in fantasy points per game.
"He was the wide receiver 51 in fantasy points per game. He only drew a 13.9 target share." – Derek Brown [15:00]
Brown argues that upon the return of Rasheed Rice from suspension, Worthy's role will revert to a stretching passer with minimal red-zone involvement, limiting his upside and justifying his low ranking in fantasy projections.
Chris Welsh's Observation:
Welsh acknowledges the complexity surrounding Worthy's performance but maintains that his role remains inconsistent and overly dependent on circumstances such as Rice's availability and the quarterback's deep-ball efficiency.
"He's a guy that's going to max out in that 6 to 7 or 8 range even in the best of circumstances." – Derek Brown [16:31]
Tips to Bust-Proof Your Fantasy Football Team (Timestamp: 10:35)
Derek Brown offers three strategic tips to avoid drafting potential busts:
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Don’t Expect Last Year's Stats to Repeat:
- Recognize that player performance can fluctuate year over year.
- Avoid relying solely on past performance metrics.
- Quote: "Do not expect last year's results to repeat." – Derek Brown [10:35]
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Avoid Blindly Following Rankings and ADP:
- Use rankings and Average Draft Position (ADP) as guides, not gospel.
- Trust in content creators and your analytical process instead of the consensus.
- Quote: "Fade the echo chamber. Don’t follow blindly." – Derek Brown [12:50]
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Follow Your Own Process and Trusted Sources:
- Develop a personalized drafting strategy.
- Rely on trusted analysts and data-driven insights to inform your picks.
- Quote: "Follow your own process, follow voices and content creators you trust." – Derek Brown [12:50]
Final Thoughts
Chris Welsh and Derek Brown conclude the episode by encouraging fantasy managers to engage with the community by sharing their own busts and strategies to mitigate risks. They emphasize the importance of informed decision-making and adapting to evolving player roles and team dynamics.
"Good luck avoiding all of those busts in your drafts this coming season." – Chris Welsh [17:15]
The discussion underscores the volatile nature of fantasy football, where player valuations can significantly impact team success. By critically evaluating player performances and adhering to strategic drafting principles, managers can enhance their chances of a successful fantasy season.
Note: This summary omits all advertisements, intros, and outros to focus solely on the content-driven discussions between Chris Welsh and Derek Brown.