FantasyPros - High-Upside Fantasy Football Draft Picks | Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates (Ep. 1678)

Summary

Podcast Summary: FantasyPros - High-Upside Fantasy Football Draft Picks | Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates (Ep. 1678)

Date: August 30, 2025
Host: Ryan Wormley
Analysts: Derek “Debro” Brown & Tom Strachan

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Episode Overview

This episode of the FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast dives deep into wide receiver breakout candidates for the 2025 NFL season. Host Ryan Wormley is joined by fantasy experts Derek Brown and Tom Strachan to analyze players poised to outperform their draft slot and potentially win leagues for fantasy managers. The show is structured around several archetypes: second-year breakouts, players emerging from behind an “alpha” WR, and league winners "hiding in plain sight." Insightful stats, film study, and sharp debates guide listeners through a dozen WRs to target in fantasy drafts.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Second-Year Breakout Candidates

Ricky Pearsall (San Francisco 49ers)

• Debro's Must-Have WR: “The guy that I want to make sure I’m leaving almost every single draft with is Ricky Pearsall.” [01:38]
• Reasons to Buy: Flashed late last year (WR7, WR14 weeks). Showed off-season growth, crispness, and a remarkable rapport with Brock Purdy seen in preseason film. “He’s going to be the guy that is competing with George Kittle for the team lead in targets.” [02:25]
• Consensus & Ranking: Real-time ADP: WR35; Debro’s rank: WR26. Tom isn’t as aggressive, citing lack of alpha target share last year but notes that first-round draft capital and a healthy offseason point to improvement. [03:31]

Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs)

• Tom's Pick: Suspension of Rashee Rice opens the door. Worthy’s ADP hasn’t rebounded after initial dip. “He’s primed…by the time Rice comes back, he’ll have missed 23 straight games. That’s a huge amount of time for Worthy to establish himself.” [05:55]
• Debro’s Hesitancy: "Mahomes has been a bottom 10 level deep ball thrower over the last two years... If this wasn't the Chiefs and he wasn't tied to Mahomes, that is writing a lot of checks for Worthy I don’t know if he can cash." [09:11]
• Debate: Tom is betting on Andy Reid and Mahomes’ emphasis on the deep ball; Debro doubts Worthy’s pure WR skills, especially in red-zone and post-Rice return.

Jalen Coker (Carolina Panthers)

• Mutual Selection: Both experts insist on including Coker due to conviction and lack of superior alternatives. [14:20]
• Tom’s Argument: “Coach Dave Canales: ‘We’re going to play the best guys. Jalen has really showed to be one of the more reliable guys...’” [14:52]
• Role & Value: Adam Thielen’s trade increases snaps; Coker was productive on significant snaps down the stretch last year. "Coker is a better player than Xavier Leggett. He had better yards per route run, was a better separator, and turned targets into more production." [15:48]
• Debro’s Upside: "He is the Carolina Panthers’ WR2 from the word go... The upside? To be a weekly wide receiver three." [17:08]
• Practicality: “He's basically free…a 14th or 15th round pick.” [16:24]

2. Breakouts Behind an Alpha / Situational Upside

Emeka Egbuka (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

• Debro’s Choice: “Everything has come up aces for Egbuka. The runway has been cleared—no Godwin for maybe most of the season, and first-round pedigree.” [20:20]
• Real-Time Momentum: ADP surging, now WR33, moved up 7.5 spots in a week.
• Role: Potential to lead Bucs in targets/yards with injuries and aging vets.
• Tom’s Add: “Wouldn’t be surprised if he leads the Bucs in catches and yards.” [22:49]

Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)

• Tom’s Take: "It's so easy—Waddle averaged 4.8 more PPR points per game with Tua than without. He led in yards per target and per reception. He just needs the ball more—and he’ll get it." [25:17]
• Debro’s Endorsement: “I have Waddle ranked ahead of Tyreek Hill. You cannot force me to draft Tyreek this year.” [26:49]
• Key Points: Dolphins’ defense is weak, passing volume will surge, and Hill’s off-field/age risk bakes upside for Waddle.

Joshua Palmer (Buffalo Bills)

• Debro’s “Squint-and-Bet” Pick: “There’s a big lane for Joshua Palmer. In Buffalo, separation and route win rates are elite. The Bills see man coverage more than almost anyone—Palmer beats man.” [28:08]
• Tom’s View: “Not hard to imagine Palmer ends up most valuable in the Bills’ passing attack, especially at cost...if Josh Palmer becomes the red zone weapon for Josh Allen, that’s huge.” [30:39]

Darnell Mooney (Atlanta Falcons)

• Tom Names Mooney: “Averaged 12.1 PPR points per game last year, five games ≥17 points. Full-time player in an offense poised to pass a lot. I can wait out his injury and take the value." [32:01]
• Debro: “If Mooney can separate down the field, whether injured or not, he’ll have big spike weeks.” [33:23]

3. League Winners Hiding in Plain Sight

Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)

• Debro’s Plea: "Please, Baltimore. Just feature your best players. Zay is elite on a per-route basis, especially vs man, but needs red zone targets. If you feature him, good things will happen!" [34:53]
• Tom’s Hope: “He had seven end zone targets, only turned two into TDs. I’m betting on positive regression and the lack of other red-zone threats...even if he's boom/bust some weeks.” [36:41]
• Ryan's Skepticism: “I do not see a path to significant red zone usage given the offense’s priorities—it really caps the ceiling regardless of his real-life skills.” [38:16]

George Pickens (Dallas Cowboys)

• Tom’s Pivot: “Now he’s in Dallas, not stuck in a miserable offense. Dallas led the league in passes and points per game. The benefit of CeeDee Lamb to George Pickens is massive.” [42:47]
• Debro: “I have Pickens ranked as a top 15 WR. The Cowboys will be the Bengals of the NFC. He’s got talent, volume, and it’s a contract year.” [44:51]
• Consensus: All panelists would favor Pickens over Tyreek Hill and DK Metcalf at cost.

DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles)

• Debro’s Value Play: “He’s been a Top 20 WR 3 years running, but people are sleeping. If AJ Brown misses time, Smith is a league winner. Even if not, he pays value as a WR3 or WR2.” [47:29]
• Tom: “He gives you high-ceiling, high-floor play—and the Eagles’ passing volume will rebound.” [50:20]

Travis Hunter (Jacksonville Jaguars)

• Tom’s Upside Swing: “He may play defense, but Travis Hunter represents exactly the kind of guy who can win your league—especially in home leagues. Liam Coen will maximize him, and his screen/speed skillset fits.” [51:33]
• Ryan: “He may be the perfect ‘league winner hiding in plain sight’: #2 pick, superstar talent, and that defensive uncertainty holds down ADP.” [53:17]
• Debro: “I have him at WR25, 52 overall—aggressively ahead of market. The Jags need his firepower; he’s a difference-maker.” [55:07]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “He’s going to be the guy that is competing with George Kittle for the team lead in targets. Second year breakout is here, boys.” — Debro on Ricky Pearsall [02:25]
• “Sometimes we got to bet on the talent of these guys. And the talent can dictate a lot of different things because as the season goes along, injuries do happen.” — Debro, on why he takes shots on WRs like Zay Flowers [41:50]
• “I’m not quite there in terms of talking about a Top 15 receiver... but I’m very in on the Cowboys for fantasy production.” — Ryan, about George Pickens and Cowboys offense [45:31]
• “If you feature this guy, good things will happen. I just don’t know if Baltimore will do it. But I’m asking, I’m pleading: please do it.” — Debro, Zay Flowers plea to the Ravens [36:39]
• “Some people are afraid to take risks and some people are afraid to have fun. And it’s Travis Hunter. Particularly in home leagues, I want to take swings.” — Tom on Travis Hunter’s upside [51:33]
• “Tell me, what helps this team more? A part-time WR/CB, or adding firepower to outscore teams like the Bengals, Chiefs, Rams? They need a WR and they made that trade for Travis Hunter for that reason.” — Debro, on Hunter’s offensive role [55:24]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment/Player | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------|-------------| | Second-Year Breakout: Ricky Pearsall | 01:38–05:52 | | Second-Year Breakout: Xavier Worthy | 05:55–10:26 | | Second-Year Breakout: Jalen Coker | 14:03–19:41 | | Breakout Behind Alpha: Egbuka | 20:00–24:57 | | Breakout Behind Alpha: Jaylen Waddle | 25:17–28:04 | | Breakout Behind Alpha: Joshua Palmer | 28:08–31:56 | | Breakout Behind Alpha: Darnell Mooney | 32:01–34:08 | | League Winners: Zay Flowers | 34:46–42:27 | | League Winners: George Pickens | 42:45–47:27 | | League Winners: Devonta Smith | 47:29–51:29 | | League Winners: Travis Hunter | 51:33–56:49 | | Mailbag (Cedric Tillman, Pure Hype WRs) | 57:02–60:18 |

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Conclusion

This episode is packed with actionable insight, forward-thinking debate, and deep analytics to help listeners identify higher-upside wide receivers who could define fantasy seasons. The hosts emphasize tiers, ADP value, situational context, and especially, talent — urging listeners to double-dip in breakout ranges and swing for wins, not safety.

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For full rankings, head to fantasypros.com/rankings
Access the Draft Kit at fantasypros.com/kit
Premium content and community: fantasypros.com/premium

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Note: All relevant content is included; ads and promos are omitted. All speaker quotes are attributed and timestamped. The summary preserves the conversational, stats-driven, and sometimes irreverent tone of the experts.

Transcript

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[A]

Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros football podcast. I'm Ryan Wormley, joined today by Derrick Brown and by Tom Strachan. Guys, we are talking wide receiver, breakout candidates. One of everybody's favorite topics every single season. Because these are often guys that end up sort of defining the season. They are guys that end up winning you your league oftentimes are breakout candidates, particularly at wide receiver. It's very fun to, to hit on the right guy here when you can. So we got a couple different categories here. Going to run through about a dozen names. We've kind of designated these as second year guys. We're looking at breakout guys that are maybe currently behind in alpha that could, you know, really take a step forward in the right opportunity. And then we're kind of going to wrap with what we have designated league winners hiding in plain sight. So we're going to hit on all that throughout today's episode. As a reminder, all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasyprose.com rankings. Let's dive right in guys. We're going to start with those second year guys. Debro, who do you have for us?

[B]

Man, the guy that, that I want to make sure I'm leaving almost every single draft with and I've done to this point is Ricky Piersall and people that have been tuning in for all these offseason shows. You gotta know where I'm going with this. I mean Piersall flashed In the final two weeks of last year, wide receiver 7, wide receiver 14 and weekly SC crush had a 30% first read target share 2.84 yards per route run. The big thing for Ricky that, that really cemented this for me was I went back and watched all of his all 22 from the preseason so far and you see the, the growth in both. He looks more explosive of the line, looks crisper in and out of his breaks and the rapport with Brock Purdy, he has grown leaps and bounds like based off of camp and the off season workouts and stuff. I mean there's one play that I keep going back to versus the Raiders where You see Pierce hall crossing, running across or going across the field and he's going to get washed out in zone coverage. Purdy breaks open and Pierce all just stops his route, sits down the middle of his own coverage and was like Purdy knew he was going to do it and laces him for the perfect throw. And it's like that's rapport. That is what offseason work looks like on an NFL field. The ability for both these guys to be on the same page. And now everything is coalescing around Peirsol in that offense. Like he's going to be the guy that is competing with George Kittle for the team leading targets. Second year breakout is here, boys.

[A]

His real time ADP which you can find on fantasy pros is wide receiver 35. Where should he be ranked? Deep.

[B]

I just moved him up yet again because I want to make sure they're like with real time adp. I'm staying ahead of consensus and not like ridiculously aggressively, but I do, I have moved them up to wide receiver 26.

[A]

Okay, so that is, you know, significantly higher than ADP. Tom, what do you think?

[C]

Yeah, I mean I agree with a lot of what Debro's saying and like I definitely want to see this breakout. I was, I'm not quite as aggressive because I didn't quite see as much last year as I wanted to. And obviously all this is caveat by saying of course he, he was recovering from an incredible sort of like freak accident injury, but he didn't really earn targets at an astronomical rate last year. You know, average 0.15 targets per out run. That was 77th among wide receivers in the time period that he came back from week seven to the end of the season. In that point we did have games where like George Kittle missed out. There was no Brandon Iuk and you know, he had games where he was goose egging and getting nothing. And the huge blow up game in week 17 which helped somebody win $2 million or whatever it was on best ball mania on underd that was against Lions who will have the second most fantasy points to wide receivers. So there's just little holes that I can poke in it. But I do believe that he can take the leap this year having a much cleaner off season. And I think that anytime that the Niners put first round draft capital into a player, I've got to have some faith that there's a lot of talent there that they can really maximize.

[A]

Almost identical real time ADP for Ricky Pearsall and Chris Olave. Tom, who would you prefer of those two?

[C]

I'll go Ricky Pearsall. I'm not in on the Saints whatsoever.

[A]

I'm assuming D row. That's very easy for you. I. I wouldn't even ask, honestly. I. I know you're going for your saw.

[B]

I think the line is probably better Ricky Pearsall or Jameson Williams.

[C]

Guys, I'm going J Mova.

[B]

See I have Ricky Pearsall right above him.

[A]

Williams is a little more than a full round higher in adp. So they are. There's like a little bit of a gap there. That one I think is interesting because you can paint kind of the upside picture for both of them if you want.

[B]

I mean, I mean I'm on team Pierce all for that one only because like as Tom was kind of talking about, we hear about all this stuff about JMO in the off season and stuff like that. Do we really think he's going to like take another step and become like a 24 target share kind of guy? I just don't know if I see that. So that's, you know, kind of where I'm splitting hairs here.

[A]

There is a name that I'm going to ask you about, this name against Pearsall, but it's a name that's going to come up later in the show. So I'm going to save it for when we get to that point because I think it's a really good head to head. Who would you prefer? Prefer. But I think Peirsol is a great pick. Like I want to get him in a lot of places. Like the simple to put a bow on this conversation is you should invest in Ricky Piersol. This is a bet worth making this year.

[B]

Yep. Agreed.

[A]

Tom, who's your first second year player?

[C]

It's Xavier Worthy. Now obviously today we finally got the news that Rushed Rice is going to be suspended first six games of the season. But it should have been a case of before now that Xavier Worthy's ADP was going up, we knew for a little while that this was the kind of length of suspension that we were looking at. And while Rashi Rice's ADP dipped a little bit, Xavier Worthy's was higher. And then when we got the news that Rashi Rice might not get suspended, it dipped and it's never really come back up. But I just think that he's primed because by the time that Rashi Rice comes back, he'll have missed the last 23 games, including the playoffs that the Chiefs have played. That's a huge amount of Time for Xavier Worthy to be able to establish himself, develop a role for Andy Reid, to learn how he can maximize him. And I think, you know, it's fair to say that we've plenty of fans out there of Andy Reid and the way that he can maximize talent. Last year, the one kind of part of Xavier Worthy's profile that was missing was the downfield threat that we thought we could see. He had 17 passes sent his way of 20 plus yards last year and only caught three of them. But it was a 41% catchable target rate on those targets, which ranked 61st among wide receivers with 10 plus deep targets. All off season. Patrick Mahomes has been going on and on and on about how much of an emphasis he's put on developing the deep ball better. Now obviously Matt Nagy has been a bit, bit of a curse on Patrick Mahomes since he came back to the Chiefs and maybe it doesn't transpire, but I've got to believe that Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback like that possibly ever, you know, definitely the best quarterback in pure football terms in the NFL right now, can get that going. And I just think that it doesn't necessarily need to be Xavier Worthy or Rashi Rice, but if a price that Xavier Worthy's at right now in redraft to get you off to a strong start, then I'm very much buying.

[A]

Debra, you have been the low man on Worthy in our staff rankings in ecr, he is. I flipped off that page. Well, you, you have him at 36. Erickson 21 fits at 23 so that's significantly lower. I got to pull it up here. And ECR, he's wide receiver 26. So you're about 10 spots lower than ECR on, on your ranking on Worthy. What is it that you're not seeing here?

[B]

So in real time adp, he's around with the boys of ranking in wide receiver 24. I just to me I don't see any meat on the bone where you're drafting him there. Like I don't see him coming back and being like producing as a top 15 wide receiver. Does the Rasheed Rice missing six games definitely help him? Yes, helps him a ton because he's going to be in the Rasheed Rice role and he hasn't seen like he hasn't produced in anything but the Rasheed Rice roll and manufacture touches close to the line of scrimmage. I know Tom pointed to Patrick Mahomes struggles with the deep ball. I, I will echo that. But also add on Top of it when he's at when Rasheed Rice comes back. Xavier Worthy is not going to play in the Rasheed Rice role. He's going to play the field stretcher role. And if Mahomes doesn't bounce back, he can talk about it all he freaking wants to. It's not going to make it any more accurate on the deep ball as much as he talks about it in the freaking media. Matt Nagy's not going anywhere. So Mahomes and I want to put this in context for people that are just now tuning back into shows. Mahomes has been a bottom 10 level deep ball thrower over the last two years. So he could talk about it. I want to see it actually happen. And the part about Worthy that really gets me man is up. We didn't see him separate as a downfield threat. I mean weeks one through 12 when he was the deep threat 124 wide receivers, he was 96 in separation, 111th and route win rate. And then in the Rasheed Rice roll he wasn't that much better out. He was 75th in that or at least if you zoom out overall. Excuse me, if you zoom out overall and put all of this stuff together, 75th in separation 86 them route win rate. So if he's not getting schemed up targets which he will get for six games and that's why I bumped him up into the wide receiver three range, I just don't see where things like I feel like we're looking at everything for Worthy through rose colored glasses. And if this wasn't the Kansas City Chiefs and he wasn't tied to Patrick Mahomes that is writing a lot of checks for Worthy that I don't know if he can cash because he doesn't have the size also to be a red zone threat outside of scheme touch.

[C]

Yeah, I mean I definitely agree he needs to play tougher but I just think like you know what we saw from him down the stretch last year and this is part of my argument that like he's going to have established a role and maybe yes he gets moved out of a Rashi Rice role but he was averaging 15.6 PPR points from week 11 which was the wide receiver 19 in that time and he only saw three end zone targets in that time. If he can develop into more of a touchdown scorer then that's how he truly becomes a great player in fantasy football.

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[A]

All right, we have another second year player here that you guys picked the same one because you couldn't come to any kind of agreement and split the baby. You guys both had to have your guy Dbro. Why is this your and by the way, I will say Tom got to the sheet first. So really, Tom picked him first?

[B]

No.

[A]

And then D Rock goes, I couldn't possibly be bothered to come up with another name so I'm going to steal this name.

[B]

Dude, here's the thing. I didn't feel enough conviction in any other second year wide receiver to sit here and throw the names out here because I don't want to be disingenuous to our audience and I want to give people real players that I truly believe in. And in that point I'm going to let Tom kick this off because he again, he got to the sheet first. This is his dude. And I'm adding on top of that, although I will throw my hat in the ring for being amongst the OG cokeheads in the room.

[C]

Yeah, and I'll say like I was slow Jalen Coker last year. He wasn't Somebody that I was drafting everywhere. You know, I play a lot of best ball and I'm always looking at these late round dart throws. And this year I have been hammering Jalen Coker in the late rounds because the writing's been on the wall. It's been so obvious from the coach speak over the last few weeks. Like you go to I got pulled this quote from the coach speak index discord Dave Canales. We're going to play the best guys, the guys that we can count on, the guys that make plays, the guys that make the catch. Jalen has really showed to be one of the more reliable guys that we have. He makes strong plays on the ball and they want to get him out there. Like Jalen Coker is always going to be a little bit boom or bust for fancy on the nature of it, the way that he wins, which is downfield like he had the 12th highest catch rate on passes, 15 plus yards downfield among wide receivers with 10 or more targets. That's a really impressive return. What I would like to see is him developing a bit more and getting some easier stuff. And maybe we see that because for the second player in a row we're talking about a guy who had significant news today with Adam Thielen being traded to the Vikings. The fact that the Panthers, who are desperately trying to surround Bryce Young with more talent, with more players who can play to a strong ability, felt comfortable doing that, speaks volumes to what they've got from him. I think overall we're going to see a huge uptick in this offense because of Tet, a rower that's going to be infinitely better than what the situation was last year. And I just think that Jalen Coker is a better player than Xavier Legetta. He had better yards per out run, he was consistently better separator and he turned targets into production at a better rate than Xavier Leggett did.

[A]

He's also basically free looking at real time ADP. He's wide receiver 76, 163rd overall. That's what like a 14th or a 15th round pick some of the names with similar again not, not ADP that you'll see in your draft room real time ADP when drafts are actually happening within the last day and the last week. His ADP is amongst other names at receiver like Tyler Lockett, Pat Bryant, Quentin Johnston, Darius Slayton. Jalen McMillan, who is going to be injured for a large chunk of the season, has a similar ADP to him. Jack Besh, who is not impressed. Michael Wilson, I mean like so Little upside there. Yeah. So. So what is the upside for Coker? D bro, like what is like hey, this actually does really hit. What's the upside?

[B]

So I moved him up. He is my wide receiver 52 right now. I have him in the 120s right now. And the upside is that first of all he is going to be from the word go and I'm not being hyperbolic about this, he is the Carolina Panthers wide receiver too. I emphatically agree with Tom on this. He how targeted Xavier Leggett last year.

[A]

He's going to do it again this.

[B]

Year because nothing has changed. If anything, Coker's gotten even better. And the upside is what we saw last year like in the six games he played with Bryce Young at least 68% of the snaps he had three games where he was a top 36 scorer in PPR points. On the week he earned an 18% target share. He had 1.89 yards per route run and almost a 24% first read share. The upside for Jalen Coker is to be a weekly wide receiver three and I think that's possible. So looking at where the the bucket of players that I moved him into, it's all these guys that are borderline wide receiver three slash fours. Now I know I have met wide receiver 52. That is a long tier of guys that all depending on how many passes they catch or touchdown lock and things like that, they could all be separated by a grand total of like 3 points per game in fantasy on a weekly basis and Coker is the guy again we go back to this. We, we brand, we bank on talented rookies and we bank on those guys in the second year for sophomore breakouts. Jalen Coker is the one where you're making that bet for basically free. And if Bryce Young can be the guy we saw in weeks 12 through 18 last year and you truly believe in Dave Canellis and Ted Romy Millen can open up other parts of this offense both downfield and otherwise that we haven't seen yet. Jalen Coker can easily be a wide receiver 3 in your lineup on a weekly basis.

[C]

When we're talking about guys this deep, it's not going to apply to every league from the get go. You are going to wait for the bye weeks but it's the kind of the performance where what we're projecting is probably similar to guys like Quentin Johnson or Rashad Bateman last year that kind of those guys who were around about wide receiver 40 who might not sound attractive now but by the time you get to bye weeks, by the time you get to injuries. And you need somebody reliable. I'd rather bet on Jalen Cote. Given a whole host of names down.

[B]

There, I got a perfect comparison. Tell me, what's the difference in the setup between him, him and Darnell Mooney? What's the difference? Come on, The. He's the clear number two in the offense. Yeah, yeah, he. It's. It's exactly like the, the Spider man gift. It's. It. Except one of them's healthy and one of them's not.

[A]

Right now, let's go to the breakout guys who are maybe like behind an alpha or, you know, need some sort of situational change or different situation and circumstance to maybe take that full step forward. But we think that is on the table. And D Ro, your first guy here is Emeka Igbuka. And I mentioned him for you because he's the one that I think him versus Ricky.

[B]

I knew this is where you were going to go.

[A]

I mean, they're basically back to back in real time ADP right now. They are two of, you know, most of the fantasy community's favorite, you know, potential breakouts here in that range, that back end wide receiver 3 range. So I want to hear your general thoughts on Ibuka.

[B]

Of course.

[A]

But I am also curious, who would you prefer, Piersol or Buka?

[B]

I mean, so for me it's Pearsall and I understand that people want to go. I mean, we are, we are splitting razor thin hairs here. And like right now, my rankings, I've got Peirsol at wide receiver 26. I got a book. I just moved him up again today because real time ADP, he's wide receiver 33 and he is, I want to say, if not, I'm updating this live. He is the second highest gaining wide receiver in ADP 7.5 spots over the last week in real time ADP. So it's like I'm trying to stay above consensus so people are still getting access to him or they're still getting him in a ton of drafts. And the, the fantasy community is like, all right, bet, bet. Hold my beer. I got this. And I'm like, okay, I'm just gonna keep moving them up. But everything has been like, we're talking about these breakout second wide receivers in these offenses. I mean, dude, he is the guy that, where he is the poster child for this. Like, everything has come up as aces for Igbuka. It's like Chris Godwin. We got like, okay, health reports aren't great. The more we've gone through the off season, health reports are pretty damning. They're horrible. I don't know when we see a healthy version of Chris Godwin this year, if we do. And so it's like, okay, check Jalen Miller goes out in the preseason and he gets hurt, and I don't want to see a player get hurt. But now it's like, when do we see him? I mean, there's talk at the bi week or even further. Like, you know, it's hard to gauge. And I mean, like, I'm sorry, like when I hear neck injuries and neck injuries that could sideline you until maybe week nine or further. We have no clue, man. Like, we have no clue if that could be even career threatening. Right now, all we're going off is the reports that we have, which, I mean, come on, how much? We got to take all this injury stuff with a grain of salt from teams just in general, too. So Buka, like, the Runway has been cleared, man. It's no Godwin for maybe most of the season. No Jalen Manmillon for most of the season, maybe all of it. And then we're talking about a guy with first round pedigree as well as the prospect profile to back it up. Like two of the last final three seasons in college, he was top 40 in yards per outrun, top 20 in receiving grade and yards out of the catch. And we know the role that he's going to play in this offense. Yeah, like, I just keep moving them up. Just keep moving them up.

[A]

Worm, I actually think I would prefer Buka to pure Solic if I could only have one team, but it's like, ridiculously close.

[B]

Yeah, it's close.

[C]

The.

[B]

The real answer here is just draft both.

[A]

Yes, there's no reason not to. You know, Tom, I'm still waiting to hear a good case against that Booker. Like, I. I just, like there's not a.

[C]

Well, I mean, I. I think if you wanted to play that case, you could say, okay, well, this team loves Chris Godwin. They knew the severity of the injury that he had, the fractured fibula as well as the fractured ankle or whatever, but they still chose to pay him. I mean, you could say they're absolutely going to give him his job back when he comes back, but I don't believe that's going to happen for all the reasons that Dibro's saying. Like, that injury to Godwyn is severe and you could have all kinds of complications around cartilage and stuff like that. Like, I've been On the wrong side of injuries too many times and been too optimistic. I think that Egbuka can play inside outside, but his strongest role is going to be in the slot. We know Godwin can also play outside, so maybe there's some kind of rotational element there. But I just look at Egbuka and I wouldn't be saying surprised if he leads the Bucs in catches this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he leads them in yards as well, because, look, Mike Evans, people don't want to talk about it, but at the end of last season, frankly, it was quite embarrassing the way that the Bucs went out of the way to get him to a thousand yards. He feels like he's starting to lose a step. And some of the reports around the Bucs this offseason have been that Mike Evans is treating things as year to year. Now, I just. I'm not saying Mike Evans is going to bust, but if I'm putting any faith in anyone in this offense, it's like Buka, and I'm just surprised that we're not paying higher prices for him already.

[B]

I won't push back on anybody that's ranking him as a top 24 wide receiver. I really won't.

[A]

We talked, I think it was last week, Tom, maybe it was on a recent episode about how this is just a really good example of, like, don't overreact to landing spots. Like, because on draft day it's like, well, oh, we hate Iguka now because the Bucks have. It's like, opportunity will open up if you're good enough. And we all believed Igbuka was good enough.

[C]

Yeah, it's just a classic thing. And I think it's, you know, probably more prevalent in Dynasty communities than it is by the time that we get to redraft. Because look at this. The situation has changed dramatically in the last three months. But ultimately, talent tends to win out more often than not. And yeah, Egbuka, a couple of months back, you were getting discount on him in Dynasty circles. And if you traded for him cheaply because you thought you were, you know, you traded him away cheaply because you thought you were a contender and just wanted some production right now, then you might be kicking yourself.

[B]

Yeah. And. And I'll. I'll say the other side of the coin is we have also lived in a world where we saw rookie seasons from Roma, Dunes and JSN fall flat because of the competition. So, like, it has been an absolutely pure run out for Egg Buka as well.

[A]

Yeah, Tom, who Is your first guy in this category?

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

Well, obviously most shows I do with Andrew when we're talking best ball. And it's hard for me to get a word in edgeways about Jalen Waddle, but I would say I'm just as high on Jaylen Waddle as Andrew. Like, and it's so easy for me to make this argument like, look, the Miami Dolphins were bad last year and they're likely going to be bad. And at the heart of it is how bad their defense could be. Their secondary looks like it's going to be one of the worst in the league. They traded away Jalen Ramsey. For anybody just tuning in at this point in the offseason and wondering why he's not involved in that conversation. And this can lead to the Dolphins having to pass more, which leads them putting up more points. More pass attempts is good. Last year, two were ranked third in past attempts per game at 36.3. He led the league with 26 completions per game. Now, some of this is obviously, obviously check downs. It is two of it we're talking about. And Johnny Smith and Devon Achan were huge, like volume hogs because of that. But when Jalen Waddle wasn't playing with Tour, the difference was so stark. Like in week three, Tim Boyle and Skylar Thompson combined for 20 completions. Week five, Tyler Huntley 18 completions. Week seven, Huntley and Boyle combining for 15 completions. So it's like the drop off in completed passes per game was massive. Waddle averaged 4.79 more PPR points per game with Tour than without. And Waddle led the team in yards per target, yards per reception. He just needed the ball more often. He needed Tua out there. And lastly, the vibes around Tyreek Hill, they are just not good. Whereas it sounds like Waddle and Tua have spent a lot of time together this off season.

[A]

Debra, where you at on Waddle?

[B]

I have Waddle ranked ahead of Tyreek Hill. I have waddle at wide receiver. 22, I am out on Tyreek Hill. You cannot force me to draft him. I'm not doing it. I think there is a non 0 chance Tyree kill goes full a B and by week seven, when they're one in six or two and four or something like that, he's ripping off the jersey and saying, forget you guys, I'm out of here. So Jalen Waddle, like, I'm, I'm totally in on him. The other part about this is the way that I looked at this offense. And as soon as Johnny was Gone. I feel like everybody went to Devon H and they said, oh, he's going to catch more passes. Oh, he's gonna catch more passes. It's like, like, did he almost coach 90? He almost caught 90 passes last year. What do you think he's going to catch 115? Like, come on. So like, for me, I think Devon HN's going to catch a ton of passes. That, that's not crazy to say. But in the Johnny Smith role, in the underneath low a dot role, I think that could go to Jalen Waddle. I think we could see him revisit the role that he had in his rookie season and he catches a hundred passes passes this year and he is the low a dot guy that's running more out of the slot where it's like everybody's like, oh, well, is it Tyreek? Is it Waddle? Is it, you know, Darren Waller? Like, I think the answer in all aspects is Jalen Waddle.

[A]

Let's go to another breakout guy here, D Ro who you got?

[B]

And to go further down the list here. And I know that people are going to say they do some squinting with this, but in, in a wide open passing attack that where you don't have this uber alpha that's commanding a 28% target share. It's more of a committee. I think there's a really big lane and opportunity for Joshua Palmer this year. For all the parts of pieces that the Buffalo Bills already had in this room and they go out and they add quickly in the off season somebody like Joshua Palmer, his role in this offense is so easy to see for a guy that's honestly really, really underrated as a route runner and a separator. Last year amongst 112 qualifying wide receivers, 16th in separation, 12th and route win rate. And I really believe in this type of data that we get from fantasy points data, like looking at those numbers, this would have put you on somebody like a Rashad Bateman last year and other players in that ilk where they were breakout players that we hadn't seen a lot of these things before and we've seen flashes from Joshua Palmer. When Keenan Allen was out of the lineup, Mike at Williams was out of the lineup for the Chargers. Now, did it come to fruition last year? No. Does that mean that it can't this year in a new opportunity? Absolutely. Like, I think that it can happen because if you look at the role that they drafted Keon Coleman to play last year, it was against man coverage. He was supposed to be the man coverage, beater guy. He had a 27% target per route run rate versus man, 14% versus zone. He could not separate versus zone. He was middle of the road versus man. Whereas Joshua Palmer against man coverage last year was fifth in separation and route win rate against man coverage. And this all goes back to this. I know I'm getting deep in the weeds, people, but the Buffalo Bills know that they have to solve this problem. Over the last three seasons, they have faced top four man coverage rates every single year. Fourth most, third most, and last year, the most man coverage in the NFL. So you're talking about trust, rapport, a guy that could separate and a passing attack where. Who is the alpha? Who is the guy you worried about? Oh, is it Cleo Shakira? Dude, he wasn't even commanding like a 25% target share even after his role grew in the second half of last season. So you're gonna give me a perimeter guy that can separate with tied to freaking Josh Allen all day. Let's go.

[A]

This is, you know, speaking of Andrew Erickson, one of his favorites, like just talking about, you know, those, these fifth year breakout guys he's been all over.

[B]

I'm just Erickson's burner, by the way.

[A]

Exactly. I. Yeah, you know, Palmer's such an interesting one. Tom, what do you think about it?

[C]

Yeah, I really like the stats that Dbros quoted. I must have referenced them. That Dbros quoted them and his tweets with them in, in a whole bunch of articles this offseason talking about late round wide receivers who could be worth it. Because with Josh Palmer, it's always like we've had little glimpses. But yes, he's played behind guys like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. There isn't anyone in Buffalo who I think are as good as those guys. When they were good at least, and when they were healthy and when they were on the field. The way the Bills play, it's really unpredictable, really difficult, and quite honestly, it's not something I've been zeroing in a lot. I don't mind Josh Palmer in Best Ball. I haven't really taken him in redraft so far, but it's not hard for me to imagine that when all is said and done, he is the most valuable part of this passing attack, and particularly at the cost you're getting. Like he's earned solid red zone targets across his career. Like he was obviously playing behind Keenan Allen, who was very good in the red zone, but he always did fine in those numbers. And then when you look at the Bills, I don't think there's anybody in particular who's particularly good in the red zone zone. Khalil Shakir definitely not necessarily got the build for it. Dalton Kincaid has been taken off the field frequently in the red zone. So if Josh Palmer can become the red zone weapon for Josh Allen, then I think that would be huge for his fantasy value.

[A]

Let's go to your next breakout guy, Tom. And this is somebody that Dibro alluded to earlier when talking about Jalen Coker.

[C]

Yeah, it's Dard El Mooney, last year's wide receiver 27. And I think the prolonged injury this summer has obviously given us a bit of a dip and generally I don't like to bet on those kind of guys. But now it's to the point where you're getting him at such a discount. But I'm okay saying I can wait a while. I can wait. He can be my wide receiver four, my wide receiver five, depending on how I'm building my team. And last year he averaged 12.1 PPR points per game, had five games where he scored 17 or more PPR points, as well as that massive 30 point game in week five. Wide receiver three finished that week. Now some people when you talk about Donald Mooney, they go, okay, well did he really do anything with Michael Pennix? Because everybody just remembers Drake London getting absolutely peppered with targets, which by the way, is something we love to see. But when they played together in Week 16 and 17, Mooney combined for seven of his 11 targets for 119 yards, which is completely fine. There was no reason to worry about that production. We know the Falcons are going to play three wide receiver sets at one of the highest rates across the league. And last year the only wide receiver with higher snap shares than Darnell Mooney was Garrett Wilson, DJ Moore and Justin Jefferson. He's going to be out there, he's going to get lots of targets, and I think the Falcons are going to pass plenty and I'm more than happy to, except that it might be a slow start for him.

[A]

Dbro, you obviously like, kind of touched on Mooney a little when talking about Coker, but are you interested in Mooney at cost?

[B]

Yeah, I'm interested in Mooney at cost. I mean, my biggest thing about him right now is just the health. I mean, so I'll take shots on him depending on the composition of my rosters and stuff like that. Because everything that Tom laid out is perfectly right, man. Like it's a consolidated passing attack. It's Drake, London and Darnell Mooney at the top? No, there's not any Kyle Pitts. I don't even know if he's gonna be a full time player in that offense. So are you really worried about Ray Ray McLeod stealing targets away? No. So the other thing about it with Darno Mooney is we did see the field stretching aspect with Kirk Cousins, but dude at a wet noodle for an arm like with Michael Panics, we're going to see that even more this year because he could chuck it down the freaking field. And if Darnell Mooney could separate down the field, injury or not, he's going to have big spike weeks, man.

[A]

Remember, winning your fantasy league starts before draft day and the fantasy pros draft kit gives you the knowledge to do it right. There are wide receiver gems to be found all throughout the middle and late rounds. Our draft kit is your one stop shop for expert rankings, sleepers, breakouts, wide receivers, draft strategies and more. Don't walk into draft day guessing. Read up, lock in, win your league. Go to fantasypros.com kit get access to all the premium content in our kit by claiming your three day free trial a fantasy pros [e-mail] premium. All right guys, we got some league winners hiding in plain sight. D row. Who is your first name in our final category?

[B]

I know you're gonna bury me and I know all the smoke you got coming for me because I'm bringing up a roll.

[A]

Tom and I are ready.

[B]

I know, dude, I just want. Please, please Baltimore. All I'm asking, feature your best players. And I know Lamar is good. I know Derek Henry and Mark Andrews are good. Dude, say Flowers, if he was on any other freaking team would be ranked higher, have a better role than he has in this offense. Just feature the man, that's all I'm asking. Because on a per route basis he is amazing. Last year Zay Flowers amongst 85 qualifying wide receivers, 14th in target share, 17th in yards per out run, 18th and first reach here, 20th and first downs per route run. Just check, check, check, check. And even when you pull open the hood, it's even better on a per route basis. When you look at separation scores, this guy was fifth in separation, ninth in route win rate overall. You go to man coverage and this is the secret sauce where like, like you look for the extra ceiling guys that can win versus man coverage, they're usually the top of the pile. The elite guys. Zay Flowers last year versus man coverage, first in separation, fourth and route win rate. Give him freaking red zone targets. Baltimore, if you give him to him, he's going to convert. If you give him volume, he's going to make things happen. I can't help the fact that he's had nine receiving touchdowns over the last two years. He's had 22 total red zone targets over the last two years, 28th and 59th in that category amongst wide receivers. If you feature this guy, good things will happen. I just don't know if Baltimore will do it. But I'm asking, I'm pleading, please do it.

[A]

Tom, do you want to take this or do you want me to?

[C]

Yeah, I'm happy to this because I don't think I'm as low on Zay as you are, Worm. Like I'm still expecting that. There is another level and it's to do with the stuff that DBRO mentioned because like last year alone, seven end zone targets but only two touchdowns from those targets. Now only four touchdowns in total. That just like I can't believe there isn't a case of positive regression there. People aren't high on Andrews, likely's injured, nobody's talking Bateman up, and it just all leads back to Zay Flowers. For me, I think, like it's quite obvious when you've, if you've watched Lamar for a long time, particularly in detail, when it gets to the red zone, a lot of it comes back to Tristan. For so long, Mark Andrews has been that guy. But last year Mark Andrews had 11 end zone touchdowns on 15 end zone targets. He ran so incredibly pure. I'm not sure that he can run that pure again. Last year we saw guys like Charlie Koehler and Isaiah likely popping up for these end zone touchdowns. And sooner or later I think that it's very hard for a guy like Zay Flowers to not experience some positive touchdown regression because of all the great stats that DBRO mentioned about separation. The hardest part for me about drafting Zay Flowers is that he comes in that range with Jalen Waddle, Calvin Ridley, Jameson Williams, Teddaroa. But that's why I want a double dip in this range. I want to pull one of those guys up around the head of ADP so that I can come back and get another guy. Because while Zay Flowers will be a little boom or bust sometimes because there will be those weeks where the Ravens spread it around are incredibly efficient or they'll be those weeks where Derrick Henry gets two rushing touchdowns just as he'll get gets one. I'm still willing to take the upside.

[A]

Of him Zay Flowers. Okay, so I am out on Zay Flowers this year. Part of it is the cost. First of all, he's a good player in real life. Like love having him on the Ravens. I've said this a bunch like very good player. I'm not at all pushing back on anything Debra said about Zay Flowers the player. I do not see a path to him ever getting significant red zone usage. As the offense is currently constructed, the priorities for the Ravens when they are close to scoring are run the ball with Derrick Henry, throw to Mark Andrews, throw to Isaiah. Likely I think this year it might be throw to DeAndre Hopkins. It's going to be run with Lamar like further down that list. But like they just don't say, hey Zay, you're a guy that we're going to design plays for in the red zone. I do not expect that to change. And I think the fact that the offense is as run heavy as it is is going to limit his targets enough that it won't make up for the difference in what I expect to be a lack of red zone, you know, usage. And I don't understand just because we want that to change, I don't understand how it actually is going to so to me that significantly caps the ceiling. I do think Zay's a pretty good floor because I think he's a really good player, but I don't think there's real like ceiling breakout like going to be a guy that really makes a difference for you in your league type of a player here. And you know, I look at like again like he, he had one top 10 finish in half PPR scoring in any week all of last season. Like it's not even like you're getting like well so the, the boom weeks are at least going to win you the week. He had that one week against Denver where he had two long touchdowns. He was the number two wide receiver that year. His next best finish last season in year two was wide receiver 11. That's not a league winning week. So I like and to, to cap my point here, like what you said Tom, about where he is going, The Real Time ADP is inside the top 65 picks. I just like a lot of other names there instead. And I'm going to have very little and maybe even zero Zay Flowers this year because I don't think the cost aligns with the ceiling to your point, Worm.

[B]

Go, go ahead, Tom, go ahead.

[C]

I was just gonna say I think that this has been one of the most interesting debates for me this offseason because there's so many really smart people on both sides of it. And I think that it's. I've gone back and forth because you can build a case for it, and both of you guys have built really good cases. And that's what kind of leads me back to taking him a little bit more, that it just feels like, you know, there's opportunity and ambiguity. If we can build a downside case for him, but we can also build this massive upside case for him, then does he have a potential that he ends up turning into an undervalued kind of league winner? And that's why I'll still draft him and I won't go crazy. I won't have him in every league, but there's definitely leaks where I will want him.

[B]

Yeah. And. And I want to be very clear, if people have been consuming my content at fantasy pros, will you find safe flowers in my players to avoid article? Yes. Because he was priced as a wide receiver, too. I don't want to pray a wide receiver 2 price tag for him if I get him as a wide receiver three. And really, this all comes down to, like, we're talking about wide receivers that have a path or at least a consent, a conceivable path. And when I go down, flowers is, dude, sometimes we got to bet on the talent of these guys. And the talent can dictate a lot of different things because as the season goes along, injuries do happen. DeAndre Hopkins being another year older, what does he have left in the tank? Also, it's not like he's been a picture of health. Mark Andrews over the last two years has not been a picture of health. If one of those, like, if one of those obstacles gets cleared or, heck, both of them get wiped out the board. Isaiah likely is not fully healthy. I don't even know if we see a version of that in 20 in this season. Then it's like, well, it's wheels up, it's Zayan, it's Bateman, and he's gonna get fed. And I'm not forecasting injuries and saying I want those things to happen. But this all comes back to, is there a guy in that range where I could say the talent is if every. If the stars aligned and things happen in that offense, does he have the talent to do it? He absolutely has the talent to do it.

[A]

He's got talent. Love the player. Not. You will not hear me say a bad word about Z. Flowers. A player just Zay Flowers, the fantasy investment.

[B]

No, I get it. And that's why I want to be Crystal clear about this. Take where I'm at on him, the fact of where he's at in my other content. I'm going to be very clear about how I'm framing this and the bet that if people are drafting him and the path it would take to do this.

[A]

Tom, let's go to your league winner hiding in plain sight.

[B]

This is beautiful. Just going to sit back and listen. Go ahead.

[C]

No, no, it's George Pickens. And like look, I haven't been in on George Pickens over the last couple of years. Like look, disclaimer Obviously I'm a Ravens fan, so there was plenty of reasons to want George Pickens to fail. But Pickens has had nine games over 16 PPR points the last two years, which has been great. But he's also had 16 as wide receiver, 43 or worse. And now the reason why I'm so high on him is because now he's going to Dallas, which isn't going to be this miserable passing offense which he's been in. Dallas were top three in passes per game last year. Pittsburgh were fourth. Bottom 2023 when Dak was healthy, Dallas led the league. Pittsburgh ranked 27th last time that Dak was fully healthy in 2023. He played the full season there. They led the league in points per game. Pittsburgh were 28th. And that's the Steelers way isn't about scoring lots of points. They don't want that. But the Cowboys, it's more ingrained in their bones. They want to entertain. They want it even when they're bad. There's something entertaining about the way that they can play. Among 31 wide receivers were 100 plus targets last year. He ranked sixth in yards after contact per reception. We know he is a dog. We know that like when he's got the ball in his hands, he's going to fight for every single guard. He was third in yards per reception, which is impressive. We know that he's going to be used downfield. We know how valuable those touches can be. But I also think that Dallas are going to use him more creatively because I don't think that's something which Arthur Smith designs a good running game. He designed some interesting stuff, but I don't think he designs a good passing game. I don't think that Russell Wilson or Justin Fields were getting the best out of him. And and people have spent a lot of time talking about the benefit to CD Lamb that George Pickens is going to bring. He's going to clear things out across the closer of a line of scrimmage to make it easier on him. But the benefit of CD Lamb to George Pickens is massive as well. And I think it's just going to be a very, very entertaining season for George Pickens. And I think we'll be sitting back in a few months time wondering why George Pickens wasn't going higher.

[A]

Dbra, you obviously agree with this one.

[B]

I have George Pickens ranked as a top 15 wide receiver. I think that he's, I think he is the NFC version of T. Higgins. I think that you look at this offense, Dak Prescott, CD Lamb and George Pickens are going to be the Cincinnati Bengals of the nfc. I think Pickens is going to be awesome this year. And for all the other parts of pieces that Tom laid out, which was a wonderful argument for Pickens, dude, before the hamstring injury last year, he was top 20 in almost every metric that you could pull up. Up. You want to talk about volume, he's gonna get it. You want to talk about talent, he's got it. You want to talk about. Also he's playing in a contract here, baby. So if nothing else, money talks.

[A]

I. Yeah, I mean this is like, I'm not quite there in terms of like talking about like a top 15 receiver the way I'm gonna rank him. But yes, like the, the case for me, like the interesting with Pickens is that like, you know, the reputation I think is as a boom bust receiver similar to Zay Flowers. He doesn't actually have that many boom weeks really on his resume. I think in his entire career he's had like three games with over 20 fantasy points and half PPR scoring in the game or something like that. I forget the exact stat, something along those lines. But it feels like with the situation change and everything, like, yeah, I'm very in on the Cowboys offense in general this year in terms of fantasy production. We were talking on an earlier show, dbro that I think will actually come out later than this one. But how like the way I put it is I think the Cowboys are the poor man's Bengals and the Panthers are the poor man's Cowboys. But. But they all kind of fit that same archetype, right, of, of these like fantasy circus teams we're looking at. And, and I think that the Cowboys are just a great investment, really all over the place for that reason. So we can go on to the next one. Oh, go ahead.

[B]

Well, I wanted to do this really fast because there's three wide receivers that I am adamantly opposed to that are right above George Pickens. But I want to get Yalls thoughts on this. We're going to do. Would you rather really, really quickly. Marvin Harrison Jr. George Pickens.

[C]

It's George Pickens.

[B]

Okay. Tyree Killer. George Pickens.

[C]

That's George Pickens.

[B]

All right. How about Garrett Wilson or George Pickens?

[C]

I think I'd probably still take Garrett Wilson, but I wouldn't like it.

[B]

DK Metcalf for George Pickens. The man that got out of an Arthur Smith versus the man in it. But again, those are three wide receivers that are all ranked in that bucket of 15 through 20 above George Pickens. And it's like Marvin Harrison Jr.

[A]

I'm just kind of like personally I'm opting out of the Marvin Harrison Jr. Let's see what it looks like this year.

[B]

Problem.

[A]

I can't weigh in on this anymore. Yeah, Garrett Wilson I do still like. But yeah, Tyreek and DK Metcalf easily. I would take Pickens there. I will. I'm with you on that.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

All right, Deborah, give me your next league winner.

[B]

Dude, this comes down to just again, talent opportunity and it can the. Can the. The. The realistic realm of like appear if anything were to happen to A.J. brown. And that leads me to Devonta Smith, a guy that has been disrespected because he's been so freaking good. He has lulled people to sleep. He has been dropping as a wide receiver three in some drafts and rankings. Yes, I see you all in ECR ranking him as a wide receiver 3. It's blasphemous. DeVonta Smith has been a wide receiver 2 over each of the last three seasons. Wide receiver 15, 20 and 14 in fantasy points per game. And again, the way where he is a league winner in plain sight. You want to play the, the card of he. You're in some spots, you're drafting him. In some places his ADP is a wide receiver three. Okay, that's ridiculous. So he's going to pay off even if AJ Brown stays healthy because that's what he's done. The Philadelphia Eagles are going to throw more than they did last year. That is just simple regression. I'm not telling you how much they're going to throw. It's going to be more because it was so legendarily low last year. That is going to change. And then we want to talk about AJ Brown. I love AJ Brown, but AJ Brown, there are risks. When we hear reports of last year, dude, they were draining his knee on multiple times, multiple occasions during the week. And where he's another Year older and more hits absorbed. I'm not forecasting. I do not want to see AJ Brown hurt or missing time. But if it happens, we've already seen what that looks like people. Devontae Smith last year and in one of these two games and I know we're dealing with the small sample size one of these two games DeVonta Smith didn't even play the entirety of the game. But in the two games he was on the field without A.J. brown, DeVonta Smith had a 29.4% target share. He had 58 of the air yards, he had a 39 first read share and he scored 17.8 PPR points per game which if he would have done that for the entirety of the season and I get it's a two game sample, sorry I can't manufacture other games that AJ Brown didn't miss because he didn't miss any other games. So with this sample 17.8 PPR points per game people that would have qualified and equal as the wide receiver eight last year. So I don't know how much more league winner we got to talk about but that's it.

[A]

Bit of a forgotten man. Like we we talked earlier deeper about how Cortland Sutton is somebody that hasn't really come up on shows that much this year. I feel like Smith is also in that bucket where he's just like yeah, he's ranked in the early 20s at receiver and everybody kind of knows he's number two in the offense and he's a good player in the offense and yada yada yada. And it's like I just feel like there hasn't really been much conversation about him. So I'm happy to hear you kind of highlighting that like no, he's not just like a known commodity. He is a real upside swing too if the circumstances, you know, really present himself that way.

[C]

Tom yeah, absolutely. I mean I didn't write too much down for Devonta Smith because I just feel like it's always a very easy argument to write. It's look, Deborah said it people don't appreciate how good he is. Huge contingent value of A.J. brown misses time. But it's also Dallas Goddard who has played 12 games, 14 games and 10 games over the last three seasons. So it feels like you get a spike out of whichever of the top three in this passing volume it is because it is very concentrated in Philadelphia like wide receiver. It just doesn't matter. You don't need to worry yourself about Johan Dot and or whoever it is at the minute and then in each of the last two seasons he's had seven games over 15 PPR points in both of them. To put that into further context, last year you look at like the top 26 QBs were all scoring over 15 points on average. Like that's like basement replacement level for your QB2 in Super Flex a lot of the time QB3 on a bad week, that's what Davantesmith gives you. It's just a really high ceiling, really good, good floor. And I don't care about the arguments about the Eagles won't pass that much. Like, I just like having good players on my team sometimes.

[A]

Tom, give me call. Yeah Tom, give me your last league winner. Hiding in plain sight.

[C]

So this is the one which a lot of people will find a difficult one because some people, some people are afraid to take risks and some people are afraid to have fun. And it's Travis Hunter. Like, look, there's, there's no denying that this is an upside swing. And I, I get that it's not going to be for everybody but like particularly in home leagues, like look, I've played a lot of fantasy contests. I've won some good money playing fantasy contests in big competitions. I've not won my home league in the last six, seven years. I want to take swings, I need to shoot for upside. And Travis Hunter represents exactly the kind of guy who can do this. Everyone wants to get worried about. Okay, well he's going to play on defense, blah, blah, blah. Right? Trevor Lawrence's touchdown line is set at 22.5 this year. Now if Trevor Lawrence is out there struggling to score touchdowns, do we think that they're going to put the second best wide receiver on this team out there? I don't think that's why they brought Tim Patrick to the Jags. I think that Liam Cohen is absolutely going to maximize what you get from Travis Hunter. Why? Because Liam Cohen is an offensive minded coach. He came there, he drafted Travis Hunter, he gave up draft capital knowing that it's going to make his job harder in future years to do so. And of I think he's going to put an emphasis on the screen game which was so huge for the Bucs last year. They were second with 91 screens. That's an easy way to top fantasy value. And when I watch Travis Hunter, it's very similar to Devonta Smith. People start going, oh, okay, well he's quite slim. Is he going to hold up? Maybe he will struggle a bit on defense, but this guy won the Balintikov award for best receiver in college. I've got every faith in him being fun for fantasy and a good fantasy football pick in 2025.

[A]

I am one of those people who have been playing scared for most of the summer when it comes to worm.

[B]

Doesn't like fun. It's official people.

[A]

Well, here's the other thing and we didn't name this player and I think we could have. But a guy who could have been on this list as a league winner hiding in plain sight is his fellow top 10 rookie pick in Tedroa McMillan. We've talked about him a lot, so I'm okay with us not including him. I have put a lot of my high end rookie receiver investment, you know, hope and optimism and enthusiasm into McMillan instead of Hunter. There's room to do both of course, but that is one reason why I've like not shied away but like have just been less, you know, involved in Hunter. But I think Hunter is actually like maybe the perfect answer for this question in terms of literally how we're defining it. Like could be a league winner. Like again number two overall pick, uber talented, like opportunity, all that stuff hiding in plain sight. We are, you are given cover by the fact that there is this uncertainty with the defensive usage and just like what he is going to look like in the NFL that is keeping the ADP obviously lower than it would be if he was strictly an offensive player. Like then there was never even any hint of, of any of the defensive stuff. And that is an opportunity to take a swing like you laid out Tom and really like, like again, you're not trying to finish fourth in your league. Right. You're trying to finish first. Travis Hunter is a guy who, if it works can do that.

[C]

Yeah. And it just also to just go further with it, it's like you can make an argument that, okay, like I love Brian's. I thought he was phenomenal last year, but his best play came with Mac Jones. Trevor Lawrence, like he has been a bit conservative as a quarterback and maybe Liam Cohen unlocks him. But what Liam Cohen also was really good at, sorry, what Trevor Lawrence has been reliable with was like peppering Christian Kirk over the last few years. If we see him latch onto Travis Hunter in that kind of role, then that could be massive for him. Maybe it doesn't happen quite like that, but I'm absolutely willing to lose my league taking a swing on Travis Hunter.

[A]

Dibra, where do you actually have Hunter ranked?

[B]

I have my wide receiver, 25. I have him at 52nd overall right now in real time. ADP he is wide receiver, 31 and 74th overall. I am aggressively ahead because I am with everything that Tom laid out here and the thing that goes down, ma'.

[C]

Am.

[B]

The Jacksonville Jaguars make this trade. You think they make that aggressive trade up for a freaking cornerback? No, that that move is for a wide receiver and for everybody that says Travis Hunter's gonna play so much corner this year. All right, let's walk the schedule, people. Tell me what helps this team more. A full time wide receiver adding to an offense. Where outside of Brian Thomas Jr. Are you worried about Tim Patrick, Diami Brown Parker, Washington, Brenton strains. None of these guys are going to command over a 15 to 18% target share even in the best of circumstances. But you walk this, this schedule, what's helping them the most? A part time wide receiver, part time cornerback, or adding one cornerback to this defense? When you play the Cincinnati Bengals, you play Houston, you play the 49ers, the Chiefs, the Rams, Houston again, the Chargers, the Cardinals, Denver, you play all of those different teams. Is a part time cornerback going to help them stop teams from scoring enough or do you think they need a full time wide receiver to the offense? To outscore teams, they need a wide receiver, they need firepower. You make the move up the board aggressively because you believe he's a wide receiver. You believe he's a difference maker and you need that for your offense. So I'm with Tom on all the parts or pieces here.

[A]

Travis Hunter is a flowers.

[B]

I mean I have Travis Hunter ranked ahead as a flowers.

[C]

So Travis Hunter, I'm just say flowers. But it's very close. It's like literally back to back.

[A]

We're gonna do a little bit of a mailbag here. Just a quick short one. I solicited some questions from folks on Twitter of their own wide receiver breakout. So we'll see what they say and what we think about those answers. These questions came from Twitter, but if you want faster replies for your questions, you can head to our Discord to chat with other fans to get access to exclusive AMAs that wind up on our podcast feed. Our current schedule looks like this. Myself and Fitz at 5 Eastern on the first Tuesday of every month, Bogman and Fitz at 5 Eastern on the third Tuesday of every month, and Welsh and erickson Thursdays at 2 Eastern. Come get your questions answered and be on the [e-mail] chat. And guys, I know what I just read about, like, oh, we're going to see what these people say. Every single submission. We didn't get that Many this time of year, you know, people are busy. Every single submission was a name we talked about on the show. It was George Pickens, it was a Mecca. Vuka, it was Ricky Fiercel, it was Travis Hunter. So the folks are agreeing with us. We don't need to weigh in necessarily on those submissions because obviously we already did. I did get a mailbag question DM to me that I want to bring up here. This comes from Jack. He's wondering what we're doing with players like Cedric Tillman, who as he defines it, it pure hype players, but who have had limited results so far. So those guys like Cedric Tillman, dbro, what are you doing with him in drafts?

[B]

I'm out on Cedric Tillman. I am so far out on Cedric Tillman. The counting stats in the raw box score filling was all because Cleveland ran so many freaking plays. Like in that stint where he was awesome, they ranked third in passing attempts and second in passing ranks. So all of that, all of that wonderful volume perfume is covering up for a guy that in that stretch had 1.71 yards per route run, 0.078 first downs per route run. He was 82nd in separation, 90th and route win rate. It was just a perfect storm for Cedric Tillman. So I am out. And the what I do with a lot of those guys, it comes down to like this goes back to process and, and, and how I break down guys and when I'm writing them up and looking at their analytics and stuff like that, that's where it, it helps to clarify things. So what when I was writing up the top 250 players like Keon Coleman, fully out. Cedric Tillman, I am out. Marquis, Hollywood Brown, again, all of these guys that are like back of the, you know, final round picks for people, count me out on all of them because all of the metrics are horrible.

[A]

Tom.

[C]

So I'm currently more interested in Tillman than I am in Judy. And it kind of links back to a lot of what Debro was saying that I think the period when people are holding up Judy's ADP is to a period which we're not necessarily going to see. I think that people are expecting too much from Joe Flacco. Like Joe Flacco was bad enough last year that he got benched for the Colts. And people seem to forget that he didn't play in week 17. It was Anthony Richardson. He was averaging three sacks per game, 1.2 interceptions per game. That's stuff that kills drives. That's stuff that gets you benched. Now, I think that there's enough there that Tillman I'm okay taking the shot because Tillman is so much cheaper than Jerry Judy. But on the whole, yeah, I've been avoiding the Cleveland wide receivers in general.

[A]

All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Thanks everybody for checking out our wide receiver breakout candidates. For Debro and Tom, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple [e-mail] review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

[B]

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[A]

This is an I Heart podcast.