FantasyPros - Is Christian McCaffrey Worth The Risk? | BOOM Or BUST Running Backs: Draft Or Fade? (Ep. 1595)

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "FantasyPros - Is Christian McCaffrey Worth The Risk? | BOOM Or BUST Running Backs: Draft Or Fade?" (Ep. 1595)

Release Date: June 22, 2025
Host/Authors: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Description: The Herd with Colin Cowherd delves into the top sports stories daily with thought-provoking opinions and in-depth analysis. In episode 1595, titled "FantasyPros - Is Christian McCaffrey Worth The Risk? | BOOM Or BUST Running Backs: Draft Or Fade?", the discussion centers around the viability of various running backs in fantasy football drafts.

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Introduction

The episode kicks off with Ryan introducing the topic: evaluating whether certain running backs present a "boom or bust" scenario for fantasy football managers. He is joined by Pat Fitzmaurice and Jake Seeley of The Athletic Guys, who provide expert insights into the intricacies of drafting running backs with high-risk profiles.

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Christian McCaffrey: A Classic Boom or Bust

Timestamp: [01:28] – [03:11]

Pat Fitzmaurice identifies Christian McCaffrey as the quintessential boom or bust running back. McCaffrey, drafted at the consensus 101st spot in 2024 fantasy drafts, has a history marked by injuries, having played only four games in his last season and seven or fewer games in four of his ten career seasons.

Key Points:

• Injury Concerns: McCaffrey's injury history raises significant risk for fantasy managers concerned about his availability throughout the season.
• High Reward Potential: Despite the risks, if McCaffrey remains healthy, his performance could be stellar. Two years ago, he amassed over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns.
• Offensive Scheme: Playing under Kyle Shanahan, known for his offensive prowess, McCaffrey is poised to receive substantial carries and targets, enhancing his fantasy value.
• Strategic Drafting: Fitz suggests that the decision to draft McCaffrey depends on a manager's position within their league's hierarchy. For those leading ("sharks"), the risk may be justified to potentially dominate the competition.

Notable Quote:

"If McCaffrey is healthy, he is going to smash. But if your league is teeming with sharks, it might be worth the risk to you because a healthy season out of McCaffrey would give you a spear gun to deal with those sharks."
— Pat Fitzmaurice [01:28]

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Differing Perspectives on McCaffrey's Value

Timestamp: [02:35] – [03:11]

Ryan offers a counterpoint, positioning himself as a "shark" willing to embrace the risk associated with McCaffrey, confident in his ability to recover via later draft picks or waiver wire options if McCaffrey underperforms.

Key Points:

• Risk Appetite: Managers confident in their drafting acumen may prioritize high-reward players like McCaffrey despite the inherent risks.
• Comparative Advantage: Fitz likens Ryan's approach to lacking a "dorsal fin to swim around and hunt," suggesting that confidence doesn't negate the structural risks involved.

Notable Quote:

"I'm more willing to take on the risk because I have a lot more faith that I will make up for it if it doesn't work out later on in the draft and on the waiver wire."
— Ryan [02:35]

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Ashton Gentry: Promising Talent with Uncertainties

Timestamp: [04:22] – [07:00]

Jake Seeley shifts the focus to Ashton Gentry, highlighting his potential as a high-upside running back. Gentry is compared to Bijan Robinson concerning workload and offensive integration.

Key Points:

• Workload Expectations: Gentry is anticipated to receive a workload similar to that of established running backs like Bijan Robinson.
• Offensive Scheme: Operating under Geno Smith and facing a challenging schedule, including two games against the formidable Chiefs, Gentry's performance could be impacted.
• Pass-Catching Ability: While Gentry excels as a pass-catcher, uncertainty remains regarding his target distribution among other receiving options like Brock Bowers and Jacoby Myers.
• Draft Position: Despite concerns, Gentry is viewed as a top-tier talent, meriting a position around RB4, offering substantial upside if he maintains consistent performance.

Notable Quote:

"He's one of the best running backs to come out since Barkley, since Ezekiel Elliott and that should be the potential for him."
— Jake Seeley [03:16]

Pat Fitzmaurice concurs with Gentry's potential, emphasizing the Raiders' offensive balance and Chip Kelly's high-paced strategy, which should benefit Gentry's touch count.

Notable Quote:

"Chip Kelly has always run his offense at a breakneck pace so like he is going to operate quickly. That's going to be more plays per game for the Raiders."
— Pat Fitzmaurice [06:19]

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Isaiah Pacheco: From High Potential to Mid-Round Risk

Timestamp: [07:27] – [09:04]

The conversation pivots to Isaiah Pacheco, who suffered a fractured fibula in the previous season. Fitz evaluates his diminished prospects post-injury.

Key Points:

• Injury Impact: Pacheco's early-season injury and subsequent recovery have hindered his ability to reclaim the lead running back position for the Chiefs.
• Current Value: Once a mid to late second-round pick, Pacheco's value has plummeted to a seventh or eighth-round selection in drafts.
• Offensive Dynamics: Sharing the backfield with Kareem Hunt and others limits Pacheco's opportunities, relegating him to a mid-range RB3 status.

Notable Quote:

"He still is probably the best running back the Chiefs have and the Kansas City offense is going to be somewhere from good to great."
— Pat Fitzmaurice [07:27]

Ryan reflects on his previous high rankings for Pacheco, expressing surprise at his current lower valuation and pondering the hypothetical scenario of Pacheco missing the entire previous season due to injury.

Notable Quote:

"I had Pacheco so high last year he was definitely in... I was really excited about him."
— Ryan [08:27]

Jake Seeley underscores concerns about Pacheco's health and usage within a committee backfield, questioning his reliability and fantasy upside unless he secures a dominant role.

Notable Quote:

"The upside is if he gets 65% of the workload on the Chiefs, the rushing touchdown potential obviously probably back inside the top 20."
— Jake Seeley [09:06]

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Breece Hall: High Risk with Potential Trade Implications

Timestamp: [10:02] – [13:29]

Breece Hall is identified as another running back embodying the boom or bust archetype. Discussion centers on his role within the Jets' offense and the looming trade rumors.

Key Points:

• Workload Uncertainty: Hall's share of the backfield duties remains uncertain, especially with Justin Fields' presence influencing touchdown opportunities.
• Trade Speculations: Persistent rumors of a potential trade add an additional layer of risk, potentially disrupting Hall's consistency and availability.
• Positional Value: Despite being talented, Hall is classified as a lower-tier RB2 with notable bust potential, warranting cautious drafting.

Notable Quote:

"Breece hall can be that guy. Breece hall can be the clear lead and get 60% of the work. But at RB13 I have him more as a back end RB2 just because I think there's a lot of bust potential with this."
— Jake Seeley [10:02]

Pat Fitzmaurice agrees with the cautious approach, citing the new head coach Aaron Glenn's emphasis on a running committee and Hall's limited pass-catching prospects under a running quarterback like Justin Fields.

Notable Quote:

"I don't see a 60 catch season in in Breeze Hall's future in."
— Pat Fitzmaurice [12:59]

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Kyron Williams: Emerging Talent with Potential

Timestamp: [13:11] – [13:29]

Concluding the discussion, Kyron Williams emerges as another running back of interest. Both Fitz and Jake express optimism about his future prospects, with Fitz highlighting his high target volume upon returning and Jake noting his ascent in the depth chart.

Key Points:

• Targeted Usage: Williams has secured a significant number of targets, indicating a prominent role in the offense.
• Fantasy Upside: Positioned at RB11 and falling within the Expected Completion Rate (ECR), Williams presents a balanced opportunity between risk and reward.

Notable Quote:

"That's wild."
— Pat Fitzmaurice [13:28]

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Conclusion

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of several running backs poised as potential boom or bust candidates for fantasy football drafts. While Christian McCaffrey remains a high-risk, high-reward option, emerging talents like Ashton Gentry and Kyron Williams offer varied prospects with their unique circumstances. Conversely, players like Isaiah Pacheco and Breece Hall embody higher risk factors that may caution fantasy managers from overreliance.

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Final Remarks

Listeners are encouraged to engage with the Fantasy Pros community through Discord and participate in upcoming AMA sessions. The hosts emphasize staying informed and strategic in draft preparations to navigate the dynamic landscape of fantasy football effectively.

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This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from episode 1595 of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, offering valuable perspectives for both seasoned and novice fantasy football enthusiasts.

Transcript

[Ryan]

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[Pat Fitzmaurice]

It's the ultimate boomer bust running back worm. It's Christian McCaffrey who was the consensus 101 in 2024 fantasy drafts and was a Hindenburg level disaster for whoever took him. The risk is obvious like he played four games last year over his 10 year career. There have been four seasons where McCaffrey played seven or fewer games and now he's 29 years old. But the potential rewards are so great with with McCaffrey. He is two years removed from having more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns. He's in a Kyle Shanahan offense and Shanahan has shown a proclivity to feed him tons of targets, tons of carries. If McCaffrey is healthy, he is going to smash. But I think your willingness or unwillingness to draft CMC should probably depend on where you are in your league's food chain. Like, if you're a shark swimming with fish, do you really want to risk a first round pick on a player with such a checkered medical history? But if your league is teeming with sharks, like, it might be worth the risk to you because a healthy season out of McAffrey would give you a spear gun to deal with those sharks.

[Ryan]

You know, So I almost, I almost see it differently. Fitz, on. On that philosophical point, I feel like if I consider myself to be the shark in this scenario, I'm more willing to take on the risk because I have a lot more faith that I will make up for it if it doesn't work out later on in the draft and on the waiver wire, I guess.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

But that would be like a, you know, not having a dorsal fin to swim around and hunt fish with worms. So that would be a pretty big disadvantage. But I don't know. For me, he's a boom. He's my RB5. I initially had him lower in my rankings this off season, but I have moved him up just knowing what the potential Reward is with McCaffrey.

[Ryan]

Yeah, Jake, hard to get more of a boomer bust than the last two seasons. RB1, RB72.

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, pretty much. And I think I was thought Fist was going to say because he'd been doing shows with me, that he moved him up because I have Christian McCaffrey at RB4, I've had him at RB4, I'm going to keep him at RB4. The crazy thing is even pulling back the season two years ago that Fitz is talking about 340 almost. I think it was 339 in touches. Even if you pull that back to about 320 over 17 games. That was in 16 games, which I did. My projections, I'm like, all right, you know, maybe he's still Christian McCaffrey, but Shanahan says, all right, I just don't need to kill him. Maybe I'll pull back 5%, 10%. He still checks in projections wise as guess what? RB1, just because he's Christian McCaffrey on a per touch basis, which is pulled back from two years ago on the touchdown rate, which is pulled back from two years ago. Like I pulled all those numbers back and he still checks in with a gap over Gibbs at number two in projections. Again, I'm not taking him there. I'm still taking Bijon, Barkley and Gibbs. But the upside is enormous. And the upside is RB1, if he even plays 16 games.

[Ryan]

So. So top five running back. You just quickly because we obviously this is a shorter episode. Is he a first round pick for.

[Jake Seeley]

You then Jake back into the first round every single time.

[Ryan]

Back, back end of the first. Fitz, is he a first round pick for you too or trying to wait till the 2nd?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I mean I'd love to wait till the 2nd but he's right around that 12 turn for me.

[Ryan]

Okay, let's go to the next running back here. Jake, who you got?

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, I'm going to go Ashton Genty just because I think that we all know the workload should be similar to Christian McCaffrey. We're talking about somebody who should walk into a workload like Bijan Robinson. But I think Bijan Robinson is a good litmus test for the risk of a rookie running back in what we think should be a fine situation and what we think should be bell cow ish's work and that yes he had Tyler Algier and I don't think anybody on the Raiders is of the Tyler Algier ilk. But that being said is my bigger concern for Genti is as great as he is as a pass catcher is how much does he see in the passing game. You're talking about Brock Bowers, Jacoby Myers, Jack Besh, there's early talk about Thornton and all the rest. There's just a lot of options here from Geno where I don't know that Jinty walks into rookie 6070 targets. And also we have to acknowledge the schedule like the schedule gets overrated but you do have to acknowledge it a little bit for running backs specifically. It is one of the tougher on paper schedules mostly facing the Chiefs twice in a year is going to be a big death knell to a lot of running backs as we saw last year. But I just think that Genti for what he is, I'm excited as anybody else is. He's one of the best running backs to come out since Barkley, since Ezekiel Elliott and that should be the potential for him. But I think that he's more of a back end RB1 for me than mid first round where like a lot of people want to take him. And honestly I would still take a few running backs this year including Jacob's workload, Derrick Henry, even a Chan in the conversation. And then I would think about Jinty kind of in the conversation with like a Bucky Irving and Chase Brown.

[Ryan]

Fitz, what's the non injury downside to Genti this year?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Boy, I don't know that there is one. I'm a firm believer in the talent I think the line is good enough. I think you know it's a Pete Carroll coach team and Chip Kelly has always like had a balanced offense. What I love is that Chip Kelly has always run his offense at a breakneck pace so like he is going to operate quickly. That's going to be more plays per game for the Raiders. It's going to be me mean like an advantage at the margins with Genty who's going to get more touches out of that. Like I think he's really good. And oh by the way Jake that you know two games for the Raiders against the Chiefs. One is in week 18 so you only really have to worry about one.

[Ryan]

Everybody can join our Fantasy Pros Discord community and chat with other fans and get access to exclusive AMAs that wind up on our podcast feed. Here's our current schedule for myself and Fitz at 5 Eastern on the first Tuesday of every month, then Boggs and Fitz on 5 Eastern on the third Tuesday of each month. Come get your questions answered and be on the show that'[e-mail] chat to join our Fantasy Pros Discord community. Fitz, who's your second running back here?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Isaiah Pacheco, who fractured his fibula early last season. He was back two and a half months later, but upon his return he just was not the same guy. He couldn't take the lead running back job away from Kareem Haunts and there's no way Pacheco was anything close to 100% after he came back from a broken leg in under three months. This is a guy who was being drafted in the mid to late second round last year and now you can get him in the seventh or eighth and in a backfield that includes Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell, Burchard Smith? I still think Pacheco is probably the best running back the Chiefs have and the Kansas City offense is going to be somewhere from good to great. Pacheco's two seasons removed from being a high end RB2 in fantasy points per game and now you can draft him as a mid range RB3. So for me he's I know about a giant boom, but he's a small boom for me.

[Ryan]

Yeah, I had Pacheco so high last year he was definitely in. I think he was inside like my top six running backs going into season which is I'm like afraid to go back and look and see exactly where I had him. But I was really excited about him. Was it you, Fitz or somebody on a recent show that poised the question of if he hadn't come back at the end of the year, where would he be ranking him? If he just he got hurt and he missed the year. But now it's been a year since he came back and we're all kind of assuming something closer like we hadn't seen him come back at not full strength. I forget who it was that mentioned on the show, but I thought it was a great point.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I did not pose that hypothetical question, but it's a really good one. He would be drafted much higher than he is now.

[Ryan]

Yeah. Jake, what do you think about Pacheco?

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, I think that's the biggest concern is what is his health? As in his health post injury. Like is he the Pacheco we knew? Is he the Pacheco now? Is he looking in the fact that is he going to be anything in the passing game? And that's. I bring up Rashard Smith as a late round flyer in a lot of these shows mostly because we've seen the Jerick McKinnon on this team top 20 value. Like they're not only afraid to use the running back out of the backfield and they will use the pass catching running back of that ilk when they have some talent to even run at the goal line. So is Pacheco going to get all that work on top of the Kareem Hunt situation? So I think the upside is if he gets 65% of the workload on the Chiefs, the rushing touchdown potential obviously probably back inside the top 20. But the risk is this is a complete committee and I don't mean timeshares and two pieces, I mean committees and there's a third piece involved and then it's this is all hell breaks loose.

[Ryan]

Last player here. Jake, who you got?

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, this one's interesting to me. I think that this risk needs to be baked into his cost more. And I don't even mean the potential trade for Breece Hall. I just think Breece hall on the jets is a risk in and of himself. Talk about it. Last year they drafted two running backs with plenty of talent. I thought Isaiah Davis was one of the bigger sleepers in last year's draft class and this is somebody who just finished being RB18. You add Justin Fields and if you look at Justin Fields, his best and I put that in quote best season and a half season and two thirds with the Bears is I'm not saying they're going to copy the Bears, but you look at the usage in the backfield and you're hoping somebody gets touchdowns because Some of that was split, but I don't think that we're going to see Breece hall get 70% of this workload if he still is on the Jets. And then on top of that, is he the goal line option or is it Braylon Allen? And then you look at that because Justin Fields is going to, if he plays a full season, he's going to run for seven, eight, nine touchdowns. He's not as low as Lamar Jackson. He's not as high as Josh Allen in the rushing touchdown department. He's right in that middle range. But those are touchdowns to potentially take away. And what has seemed to seem to work next to Justin Fields has been kind of more of that thumper when they get to the goal line to offset Justin Fields. All that being said, Breeze hall can be that guy. Breece hall can be the clear lead and get 60% of the work. But at RB13 I have him more as a back end RB2 just because I think there's a lot of bust potential with this. And again, that's even before I bring up the potential that he could get traded and at a timeshare situation somewhere else that we've all started getting rumors about lately.

[Ryan]

This was one of the names on the short list and we were putting together this outline. You guys are going to provide the name, not me. But this is one of the first names that jumped to mind when I was thinking about guys that we'd be talking about. Fitz, what are you doing with with hall this year?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Fading for all the reasons Jake said, plus a few more. One is that new head coach Aaron Glenn just keeps talking about wanting to have a committee. Like he's just openly saying he wants to use all three of his backs. So like why would we not believe him in that? Breeze hall just doesn't seem to have workhorse potential if Aaron Glenn can be taken at face value. The other thing and Jake touched on this with Justin Fields like related to the touchdown count. Like Breeze hall, part of the value is his pass catching ability. Like he's really good at it. He's put up some great pass catching numbers. But we know that running quarterbacks tend not to throw to their backs as much as pocket quarterbacks do. In Justin Field's best season season as a passer 2022 with the Bears Bears receipt Bears running backs and fullbacks combined for 46 catches that year. Like every running back and fullback on the team, 46 catches. So I don't see a 60 catch season in in Breeze Hall's future in.

[Ryan]

2025 Breeze hall or James Cook this year Fits.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

No, I think I've got Cook. No, I've got Hall one spot higher, but I'm not totally sold on that. How about Cook for you, Jake?

[Ryan]

How about. How about hall or Kyron Williams?

[Jake Seeley]

Kyron.

[Ryan]

Kyren for both of you. Okay, so right, right in that range, Kyron's RB11 and ECR.

[Jake Seeley]

If you didn't see me smiling, by the way, it's because I was leaving like that little nugget at the end and Fitz kind of took it. The highest targets for a running back. When he was back, there was 40 targets for a running back. So there you go.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

That's wild.

[Ryan]

All right, we'll go ahead and wrap up there. Thanks everybody for checking out this shorter video on our Boom or Bust running backs for Jake and Fitz, I'm Ryan. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple [e-mail] review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at fantasyprose and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.

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[Ryan]

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