Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "FantasyPros - Is Christian McCaffrey Worth The Risk? | BOOM Or BUST Running Backs: Draft Or Fade?" (Ep. 1595)
Release Date: June 22, 2025
Host/Authors: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Description: The Herd with Colin Cowherd delves into the top sports stories daily with thought-provoking opinions and in-depth analysis. In episode 1595, titled "FantasyPros - Is Christian McCaffrey Worth The Risk? | BOOM Or BUST Running Backs: Draft Or Fade?", the discussion centers around the viability of various running backs in fantasy football drafts.
Introduction
The episode kicks off with Ryan introducing the topic: evaluating whether certain running backs present a "boom or bust" scenario for fantasy football managers. He is joined by Pat Fitzmaurice and Jake Seeley of The Athletic Guys, who provide expert insights into the intricacies of drafting running backs with high-risk profiles.
Christian McCaffrey: A Classic Boom or Bust
Timestamp: [01:28] – [03:11]
Pat Fitzmaurice identifies Christian McCaffrey as the quintessential boom or bust running back. McCaffrey, drafted at the consensus 101st spot in 2024 fantasy drafts, has a history marked by injuries, having played only four games in his last season and seven or fewer games in four of his ten career seasons.
Key Points:
- Injury Concerns: McCaffrey's injury history raises significant risk for fantasy managers concerned about his availability throughout the season.
- High Reward Potential: Despite the risks, if McCaffrey remains healthy, his performance could be stellar. Two years ago, he amassed over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns.
- Offensive Scheme: Playing under Kyle Shanahan, known for his offensive prowess, McCaffrey is poised to receive substantial carries and targets, enhancing his fantasy value.
- Strategic Drafting: Fitz suggests that the decision to draft McCaffrey depends on a manager's position within their league's hierarchy. For those leading ("sharks"), the risk may be justified to potentially dominate the competition.
Notable Quote:
"If McCaffrey is healthy, he is going to smash. But if your league is teeming with sharks, it might be worth the risk to you because a healthy season out of McCaffrey would give you a spear gun to deal with those sharks."
— Pat Fitzmaurice [01:28]
Differing Perspectives on McCaffrey's Value
Timestamp: [02:35] – [03:11]
Ryan offers a counterpoint, positioning himself as a "shark" willing to embrace the risk associated with McCaffrey, confident in his ability to recover via later draft picks or waiver wire options if McCaffrey underperforms.
Key Points:
- Risk Appetite: Managers confident in their drafting acumen may prioritize high-reward players like McCaffrey despite the inherent risks.
- Comparative Advantage: Fitz likens Ryan's approach to lacking a "dorsal fin to swim around and hunt," suggesting that confidence doesn't negate the structural risks involved.
Notable Quote:
"I'm more willing to take on the risk because I have a lot more faith that I will make up for it if it doesn't work out later on in the draft and on the waiver wire."
— Ryan [02:35]
Ashton Gentry: Promising Talent with Uncertainties
Timestamp: [04:22] – [07:00]
Jake Seeley shifts the focus to Ashton Gentry, highlighting his potential as a high-upside running back. Gentry is compared to Bijan Robinson concerning workload and offensive integration.
Key Points:
- Workload Expectations: Gentry is anticipated to receive a workload similar to that of established running backs like Bijan Robinson.
- Offensive Scheme: Operating under Geno Smith and facing a challenging schedule, including two games against the formidable Chiefs, Gentry's performance could be impacted.
- Pass-Catching Ability: While Gentry excels as a pass-catcher, uncertainty remains regarding his target distribution among other receiving options like Brock Bowers and Jacoby Myers.
- Draft Position: Despite concerns, Gentry is viewed as a top-tier talent, meriting a position around RB4, offering substantial upside if he maintains consistent performance.
Notable Quote:
"He's one of the best running backs to come out since Barkley, since Ezekiel Elliott and that should be the potential for him."
— Jake Seeley [03:16]
Pat Fitzmaurice concurs with Gentry's potential, emphasizing the Raiders' offensive balance and Chip Kelly's high-paced strategy, which should benefit Gentry's touch count.
Notable Quote:
"Chip Kelly has always run his offense at a breakneck pace so like he is going to operate quickly. That's going to be more plays per game for the Raiders."
— Pat Fitzmaurice [06:19]
Isaiah Pacheco: From High Potential to Mid-Round Risk
Timestamp: [07:27] – [09:04]
The conversation pivots to Isaiah Pacheco, who suffered a fractured fibula in the previous season. Fitz evaluates his diminished prospects post-injury.
Key Points:
- Injury Impact: Pacheco's early-season injury and subsequent recovery have hindered his ability to reclaim the lead running back position for the Chiefs.
- Current Value: Once a mid to late second-round pick, Pacheco's value has plummeted to a seventh or eighth-round selection in drafts.
- Offensive Dynamics: Sharing the backfield with Kareem Hunt and others limits Pacheco's opportunities, relegating him to a mid-range RB3 status.
Notable Quote:
"He still is probably the best running back the Chiefs have and the Kansas City offense is going to be somewhere from good to great."
— Pat Fitzmaurice [07:27]
Ryan reflects on his previous high rankings for Pacheco, expressing surprise at his current lower valuation and pondering the hypothetical scenario of Pacheco missing the entire previous season due to injury.
Notable Quote:
"I had Pacheco so high last year he was definitely in... I was really excited about him."
— Ryan [08:27]
Jake Seeley underscores concerns about Pacheco's health and usage within a committee backfield, questioning his reliability and fantasy upside unless he secures a dominant role.
Notable Quote:
"The upside is if he gets 65% of the workload on the Chiefs, the rushing touchdown potential obviously probably back inside the top 20."
— Jake Seeley [09:06]
Breece Hall: High Risk with Potential Trade Implications
Timestamp: [10:02] – [13:29]
Breece Hall is identified as another running back embodying the boom or bust archetype. Discussion centers on his role within the Jets' offense and the looming trade rumors.
Key Points:
- Workload Uncertainty: Hall's share of the backfield duties remains uncertain, especially with Justin Fields' presence influencing touchdown opportunities.
- Trade Speculations: Persistent rumors of a potential trade add an additional layer of risk, potentially disrupting Hall's consistency and availability.
- Positional Value: Despite being talented, Hall is classified as a lower-tier RB2 with notable bust potential, warranting cautious drafting.
Notable Quote:
"Breece hall can be that guy. Breece hall can be the clear lead and get 60% of the work. But at RB13 I have him more as a back end RB2 just because I think there's a lot of bust potential with this."
— Jake Seeley [10:02]
Pat Fitzmaurice agrees with the cautious approach, citing the new head coach Aaron Glenn's emphasis on a running committee and Hall's limited pass-catching prospects under a running quarterback like Justin Fields.
Notable Quote:
"I don't see a 60 catch season in in Breeze Hall's future in."
— Pat Fitzmaurice [12:59]
Kyron Williams: Emerging Talent with Potential
Timestamp: [13:11] – [13:29]
Concluding the discussion, Kyron Williams emerges as another running back of interest. Both Fitz and Jake express optimism about his future prospects, with Fitz highlighting his high target volume upon returning and Jake noting his ascent in the depth chart.
Key Points:
- Targeted Usage: Williams has secured a significant number of targets, indicating a prominent role in the offense.
- Fantasy Upside: Positioned at RB11 and falling within the Expected Completion Rate (ECR), Williams presents a balanced opportunity between risk and reward.
Notable Quote:
"That's wild."
— Pat Fitzmaurice [13:28]
Conclusion
The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of several running backs poised as potential boom or bust candidates for fantasy football drafts. While Christian McCaffrey remains a high-risk, high-reward option, emerging talents like Ashton Gentry and Kyron Williams offer varied prospects with their unique circumstances. Conversely, players like Isaiah Pacheco and Breece Hall embody higher risk factors that may caution fantasy managers from overreliance.
Final Remarks
Listeners are encouraged to engage with the Fantasy Pros community through Discord and participate in upcoming AMA sessions. The hosts emphasize staying informed and strategic in draft preparations to navigate the dynamic landscape of fantasy football effectively.
This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from episode 1595 of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, offering valuable perspectives for both seasoned and novice fantasy football enthusiasts.