Podcast Summary: FantasyPros - Projecting the First Round | The Top 12 Fantasy Football Players in 2026

The Herd with Colin Cowherd | January 17, 2026 | Ep. 1939
Guests: Jake Seeley (The Athletic), Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros), Host: Joey P. Zappia

Overview

In this episode, the FantasyPros crew (Joey P. Zappia, Jake Seeley, and Andrew Erickson) engage in their annual tradition: an early, speculative exercise to project the first round of 2026 Fantasy Football drafts. Drawing on their own early rankings, fresh takes from the 2025 postmortem, and debates about player values, team situations, and looming coaching changes, the hosts debate and defend their top 12 picks. Expect strong opinions, plenty of data-driven analysis, amusing banter, and disagreement—especially around controversial players like Christian McCaffrey, the running back age cliff, and unproven situations.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Purpose of the Exercise

Projections in January are intentionally speculative; circumstances will change a lot by August (01:22)
The hosts stress that knowledge of depth charts, trends, and coaching changes helps drafters pivot quickly once new information arrives.

Approach & Philosophy

Jake Seeley: Opens with a running back (Bijan Robinson) then pivots to a run on high-target, high-ceiling wide receivers; forms his tiers by position, not alternating RB/WR.
Andrew Erickson: Pushes running backs slightly higher than consensus, citing recent trends; emphasizes player roles and usage over team situations.
Joey P. Zappia: Leans receiver-heavy, preferring the predictability and perceived safety, but leaves room for exception based on coaching, usage, and team changes.

Detailed Round 1 Projections & Rationale

Picks 1-4 (03:42)

Jake Seeley

1. Bijan Robinson (RB): “His is the safest of the question marks we have at running back... I don’t know that we’ve seen the ceiling yet.” (04:45)
2. Puka Nacua (WR): “If Stafford’s back, there’s no combo better. His target share is unaffected by talent around him.” (04:39)
3. Jackson Smith-Njigba (WR): High volume, dominant target share; system questions if OC changes.
4. Jamar Chase (WR): “If you want Chase 1, I’m not yelling... but his 2024 was the outlier.” (06:34)

Andrew Erickson

1. Bijan Robinson (RB): Greater upside if Tyler Allgeier leaves in free agency—could become a CMC-level bell cow (08:05)
2. Jameer Gibbs (RB): “Past season—top 4 non-QB scorers were all RBs. I’m starting to push running backs up more.” (08:05)
3. Jamar Chase (WR): Highest ceiling with a healthy Burrow, prefers him over Nacua due to red zone/TD potential.
4. James Cook (RB): “He’s in his prime, the NFL’s leading rusher, and the Bills’ offense runs through him.” (09:26)

Joey P. Zappia

1. Jackson Smith-Njigba (WR): “Everything goes to him; Darnold is healthy and building confidence.” (11:38)
2. Jamar Chase (WR): “When healthy, him and Burrow are the best.”
3. Bijan Robinson (RB): Needs to see who coaches Atlanta before locking him as #1.
4. Puka Nacua (WR): Lower due to worries about Stafford’s health/retirement.

Selections 5-8 (18:59, 29:39, 35:11)

Jake Seeley

5. Jameer Gibbs (RB): Would push to 1.01 if Mike McDaniel became Lions OC.
6. Christian McCaffrey (RB): Acknowledges arguments on both sides: “You lop 20% off his production, he’s still RB5.” (26:22)
7. Jonathan Taylor (RB): Capable of being higher if Colts’ QB/coaching situation resolves positively; was RB1-caliber with Daniel Jones.
8. Devon Achane (RB): High explosive upside; “awful Dolphins season and still 18.1 PPG.” (26:22)

Andrew Erickson

5. Jackson Smith-Njigba (WR): OC change could impact value.
6. Puka Nacua (WR): Uncertainty about Stafford’s future.
7. Jonathan Taylor (RB): “Top 4 finisher despite tanking second half.”
8. CeeDee Lamb (WR): Could move if George Pickens returns to Dallas.

Joey P. Zappia

5. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): “Second most productive fantasy WR over last 3 years… we don’t deserve him.” (38:50)
6. Jameer Gibbs (RB): “Love Jameer—terrific upside, but St. Brown deserves top 5 love.”
7. CeeDee Lamb (WR): Monitoring Dallas’ WR room re: Pickens.
8. Drake London (WR): Needs clarity on ATL coaching/QB, but has superstar potential.

Controversial Debates: Running Backs & Age (25:25, 29:39)

Christian McCaffrey (CMC) Debate:
- Arguments on both sides about the “curse” of RBs with >400 touches and the age 30 falloff.
- Only one of the last 13 RBs with 400+ touches finished top 5 the following year (29:43, Erickson).
- Last year, CMC proved doubters wrong, but 2026 risk is higher.
- “Not even in my top 8.” (29:53, Erickson)
Data & context:
- The NFL game is different now with split backfields and less durability.
- RBs who led league in touches after age 27 never finished top 5 the next year (32:24, Erickson).

Picks 9-12 (45:57, 52:50, 54:44)

Jake Seeley

9. James Cook (RB)
10. Rashee Rice (WR): “He’s Drake London on the Chiefs... if Mahomes is healthy, he’s a target monster.” (46:50)
11. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)
12. Amarian Hampton (RB): “If he gets bell-cow work and healthy OL, could rival CMC’s upside.”

Andrew Erickson

9. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)
10. Devon Achane (RB): Pending playcaller/QB stability.
11. Saquon Barkley (RB): “Could be 2025’s Jonathan Taylor—a value in 2nd round poised to bounce back.” (53:01)
12. Christian McCaffrey (RB): Only cracks round 1 at the turn.

Joey P. Zappia

9. Justin Jefferson (WR): “Extraordinary talent; still a first-rounder, even after last year’s disaster.” (55:23)
10. Jonathan Taylor (RB)
11. James Cook (RB)
12. Christian McCaffrey (RB): “Can’t get there earlier; likely won’t have much CMC next year.”

Players Just Missing the First Round

Trey McBride (TE): Great talent, but depth at TE and lack of WR ceiling keeps him out.
Nico Collins, Chris Olave, Malike Neighbors: On the watchlist; Neighbors could jump if healthy in preseason.
Ashton Jeanty: Needs Raiders’ offense to improve and OL to get healthy.
Rookies: General consensus—no rookie likely cracks the 1st round, barring a generational talent like Jeremiah Love landing in the perfect spot (66:44, Seeley).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Bijan Robinson’s Safety:
“He’s the safest of the question marks we have at running back... and honestly, I don’t know that we’ve seen the ceiling.” — Jake Seeley (04:45)
On Christian McCaffrey’s Risk:
“Last 13 RBs with 400+ touches, only one has been a top five RB the next season... This specific player, it’s happened to.” — Andrew Erickson (29:43) “You lop 20% off CMC’s production, he’s still RB5.” — Jake Seeley (26:22)
On Amon-Ra St. Brown:
“We don’t deserve Amon-Ra... every year, overlooked for the flashy new thing.” — Joey P. Zappia (38:50)
On Rashee Rice:
“He’s Drake London on the Chiefs… If Mahomes is healthy, he’s a target monster.” — Jake Seeley (46:50)
On Justin Jefferson’s Value:
“He’s still a first-round talent. One of these things—a new QB, McCarthy develops, or Jefferson is traded—will unlock him.” — Joey P. Zappia (55:23)
On Rookies Cracking Round 1:
“Hard no—not with this class. But Jeremiah Love could sneak in with the right landing spot.” — Panel consensus (66:23–67:25)

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

01:22 — Introduction: Why early projections matter/approach to process
03:42 — Jake’s 1-4 picks and reasoning
08:05 — Erickson’s 1-4 picks, trend toward RBs, James Cook debate
11:38 — Joey’s 1-4 picks, WR lean, concerns about team situations
18:59 — Picks 5-8, pivot to debating CMC, Taylor, Gibbs, Achane
25:25 — CMC historical comps, risk stats, running back age debate
32:24 — Erickson’s stats: RBs over 27 never repeat top 5 after usage spike
38:50 — Joey’s Amon-Ra St. Brown rant
45:57 — Seeley’s controversial inclusion of Rashee Rice + finish of top 12
52:50 — Erickson’s 9–12: Achane, Barkley, CMC in at the turn
54:44 — Joey’s 9–12: Justin Jefferson’s talent gamble
66:23 — Rookie RBs: Unlikely to crack round 1 in 2026
67:25 — Panel’s closing thoughts, early takeaways, value at the turn

Wrap-Up & Takeaways

Expect significant shuffling throughout the offseason, with coaching hires, free agency, and injuries set to move many values.
The top of round 1 is full of debate on: RB workload vs. decline, team situations, and coaching impacts.
Early second round is seen as “the turn” with massive value due to depth at skill positions—especially if a true WR1 like Jefferson slips.
Rookie RBs are unlikely to be first-round picks—unless a unique combination of talent and landing spot emerges.
Bonus Advice: Use tiers and stay flexible, as rigid early rankings are traps before summer news hits.

For the full rankings and additional discussion, check out FantasyPros on YouTube and your favorite podcast platform. Drop your own projected 1-12 in the comments!

Podcast Summary: FantasyPros - Projecting the First Round | The Top 12 Fantasy Football Players in 2026

The Herd with Colin Cowherd | January 17, 2026 | Ep. 1939
Guests: Jake Seeley (The Athletic), Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros), Host: Joey P. Zappia

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Purpose of the Exercise

Projections in January are intentionally speculative; circumstances will change a lot by August (01:22)
The hosts stress that knowledge of depth charts, trends, and coaching changes helps drafters pivot quickly once new information arrives.

Approach & Philosophy

Jake Seeley: Opens with a running back (Bijan Robinson) then pivots to a run on high-target, high-ceiling wide receivers; forms his tiers by position, not alternating RB/WR.
Andrew Erickson: Pushes running backs slightly higher than consensus, citing recent trends; emphasizes player roles and usage over team situations.
Joey P. Zappia: Leans receiver-heavy, preferring the predictability and perceived safety, but leaves room for exception based on coaching, usage, and team changes.

Detailed Round 1 Projections & Rationale

Picks 1-4 (03:42)

Jake Seeley

1. Bijan Robinson (RB): “His is the safest of the question marks we have at running back... I don’t know that we’ve seen the ceiling yet.” (04:45)
2. Puka Nacua (WR): “If Stafford’s back, there’s no combo better. His target share is unaffected by talent around him.” (04:39)
3. Jackson Smith-Njigba (WR): High volume, dominant target share; system questions if OC changes.
4. Jamar Chase (WR): “If you want Chase 1, I’m not yelling... but his 2024 was the outlier.” (06:34)

Andrew Erickson

1. Bijan Robinson (RB): Greater upside if Tyler Allgeier leaves in free agency—could become a CMC-level bell cow (08:05)
2. Jameer Gibbs (RB): “Past season—top 4 non-QB scorers were all RBs. I’m starting to push running backs up more.” (08:05)
3. Jamar Chase (WR): Highest ceiling with a healthy Burrow, prefers him over Nacua due to red zone/TD potential.
4. James Cook (RB): “He’s in his prime, the NFL’s leading rusher, and the Bills’ offense runs through him.” (09:26)

Joey P. Zappia

1. Jackson Smith-Njigba (WR): “Everything goes to him; Darnold is healthy and building confidence.” (11:38)
2. Jamar Chase (WR): “When healthy, him and Burrow are the best.”
3. Bijan Robinson (RB): Needs to see who coaches Atlanta before locking him as #1.
4. Puka Nacua (WR): Lower due to worries about Stafford’s health/retirement.

Selections 5-8 (18:59, 29:39, 35:11)

Jake Seeley

5. Jameer Gibbs (RB): Would push to 1.01 if Mike McDaniel became Lions OC.
6. Christian McCaffrey (RB): Acknowledges arguments on both sides: “You lop 20% off his production, he’s still RB5.” (26:22)
7. Jonathan Taylor (RB): Capable of being higher if Colts’ QB/coaching situation resolves positively; was RB1-caliber with Daniel Jones.
8. Devon Achane (RB): High explosive upside; “awful Dolphins season and still 18.1 PPG.” (26:22)

Andrew Erickson

5. Jackson Smith-Njigba (WR): OC change could impact value.
6. Puka Nacua (WR): Uncertainty about Stafford’s future.
7. Jonathan Taylor (RB): “Top 4 finisher despite tanking second half.”
8. CeeDee Lamb (WR): Could move if George Pickens returns to Dallas.

Joey P. Zappia

5. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): “Second most productive fantasy WR over last 3 years… we don’t deserve him.” (38:50)
6. Jameer Gibbs (RB): “Love Jameer—terrific upside, but St. Brown deserves top 5 love.”
7. CeeDee Lamb (WR): Monitoring Dallas’ WR room re: Pickens.
8. Drake London (WR): Needs clarity on ATL coaching/QB, but has superstar potential.

Controversial Debates: Running Backs & Age (25:25, 29:39)

Christian McCaffrey (CMC) Debate:
- Arguments on both sides about the “curse” of RBs with >400 touches and the age 30 falloff.
- Only one of the last 13 RBs with 400+ touches finished top 5 the following year (29:43, Erickson).
- Last year, CMC proved doubters wrong, but 2026 risk is higher.
- “Not even in my top 8.” (29:53, Erickson)
Data & context:
- The NFL game is different now with split backfields and less durability.
- RBs who led league in touches after age 27 never finished top 5 the next year (32:24, Erickson).

Picks 9-12 (45:57, 52:50, 54:44)

Jake Seeley

9. James Cook (RB)
10. Rashee Rice (WR): “He’s Drake London on the Chiefs... if Mahomes is healthy, he’s a target monster.” (46:50)
11. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)
12. Amarian Hampton (RB): “If he gets bell-cow work and healthy OL, could rival CMC’s upside.”

Andrew Erickson

9. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)
10. Devon Achane (RB): Pending playcaller/QB stability.
11. Saquon Barkley (RB): “Could be 2025’s Jonathan Taylor—a value in 2nd round poised to bounce back.” (53:01)
12. Christian McCaffrey (RB): Only cracks round 1 at the turn.

Joey P. Zappia

9. Justin Jefferson (WR): “Extraordinary talent; still a first-rounder, even after last year’s disaster.” (55:23)
10. Jonathan Taylor (RB)
11. James Cook (RB)
12. Christian McCaffrey (RB): “Can’t get there earlier; likely won’t have much CMC next year.”

Players Just Missing the First Round

Trey McBride (TE): Great talent, but depth at TE and lack of WR ceiling keeps him out.
Nico Collins, Chris Olave, Malike Neighbors: On the watchlist; Neighbors could jump if healthy in preseason.
Ashton Jeanty: Needs Raiders’ offense to improve and OL to get healthy.
Rookies: General consensus—no rookie likely cracks the 1st round, barring a generational talent like Jeremiah Love landing in the perfect spot (66:44, Seeley).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Bijan Robinson’s Safety:
“He’s the safest of the question marks we have at running back... and honestly, I don’t know that we’ve seen the ceiling.” — Jake Seeley (04:45)
On Christian McCaffrey’s Risk:
“Last 13 RBs with 400+ touches, only one has been a top five RB the next season... This specific player, it’s happened to.” — Andrew Erickson (29:43) “You lop 20% off CMC’s production, he’s still RB5.” — Jake Seeley (26:22)
On Amon-Ra St. Brown:
“We don’t deserve Amon-Ra... every year, overlooked for the flashy new thing.” — Joey P. Zappia (38:50)
On Rashee Rice:
“He’s Drake London on the Chiefs… If Mahomes is healthy, he’s a target monster.” — Jake Seeley (46:50)
On Justin Jefferson’s Value:
“He’s still a first-round talent. One of these things—a new QB, McCarthy develops, or Jefferson is traded—will unlock him.” — Joey P. Zappia (55:23)
On Rookies Cracking Round 1:
“Hard no—not with this class. But Jeremiah Love could sneak in with the right landing spot.” — Panel consensus (66:23–67:25)

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

01:22 — Introduction: Why early projections matter/approach to process
03:42 — Jake’s 1-4 picks and reasoning
08:05 — Erickson’s 1-4 picks, trend toward RBs, James Cook debate
11:38 — Joey’s 1-4 picks, WR lean, concerns about team situations
18:59 — Picks 5-8, pivot to debating CMC, Taylor, Gibbs, Achane
25:25 — CMC historical comps, risk stats, running back age debate
32:24 — Erickson’s stats: RBs over 27 never repeat top 5 after usage spike
38:50 — Joey’s Amon-Ra St. Brown rant
45:57 — Seeley’s controversial inclusion of Rashee Rice + finish of top 12
52:50 — Erickson’s 9–12: Achane, Barkley, CMC in at the turn
54:44 — Joey’s 9–12: Justin Jefferson’s talent gamble
66:23 — Rookie RBs: Unlikely to crack round 1 in 2026
67:25 — Panel’s closing thoughts, early takeaways, value at the turn

Wrap-Up & Takeaways

Expect significant shuffling throughout the offseason, with coaching hires, free agency, and injuries set to move many values.
The top of round 1 is full of debate on: RB workload vs. decline, team situations, and coaching impacts.
Early second round is seen as “the turn” with massive value due to depth at skill positions—especially if a true WR1 like Jefferson slips.
Rookie RBs are unlikely to be first-round picks—unless a unique combination of talent and landing spot emerges.
Bonus Advice: Use tiers and stay flexible, as rigid early rankings are traps before summer news hits.

For the full rankings and additional discussion, check out FantasyPros on YouTube and your favorite podcast platform. Drop your own projected 1-12 in the comments!

FantasyPros - Projecting the First Round | The Top 12 Fantasy Football Players in 2026 (Ep. 1939)

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Summary

Podcast Summary: FantasyPros - Projecting the First Round | The Top 12 Fantasy Football Players in 2026

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Purpose of the Exercise

Approach & Philosophy

Detailed Round 1 Projections & Rationale

Picks 1-4 (03:42)

Jake Seeley

Andrew Erickson

Joey P. Zappia

Selections 5-8 (18:59, 29:39, 35:11)

Jake Seeley

Andrew Erickson

Joey P. Zappia

Controversial Debates: Running Backs & Age (25:25, 29:39)

Picks 9-12 (45:57, 52:50, 54:44)

Jake Seeley

Andrew Erickson

Joey P. Zappia

Players Just Missing the First Round

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

Wrap-Up & Takeaways

Summary

Podcast Summary: FantasyPros - Projecting the First Round | The Top 12 Fantasy Football Players in 2026

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Purpose of the Exercise

Approach & Philosophy

Detailed Round 1 Projections & Rationale

Picks 1-4 (03:42)

Jake Seeley

Andrew Erickson

Joey P. Zappia

Selections 5-8 (18:59, 29:39, 35:11)

Jake Seeley

Andrew Erickson

Joey P. Zappia

Controversial Debates: Running Backs & Age (25:25, 29:39)

Picks 9-12 (45:57, 52:50, 54:44)

Jake Seeley

Andrew Erickson

Joey P. Zappia

Players Just Missing the First Round

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

Wrap-Up & Takeaways