FantasyPros - Running Backs You Need to RUN FROM in 2025 (Ep. 1605)

Summary

Podcast Summary: FantasyPros - Running Backs You Need to RUN FROM in 2025 (Ep. 1605)

Title: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Episode: FantasyPros - Running Backs You Need to RUN FROM in 2025
Release Date: July 6, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd," the focus shifts to the strategic elements of fantasy football, specifically targeting running backs (RBs) to avoid in the 2025 draft. Hosted by Ryan, the discussion features expert insights from Jake Seeley of The Athletic and Ryan Heath from Fantasy Points. The trio delves into the overvalued players in early and mid-rounds, as well as risky RBs that might still be worth considering despite certain red flags.

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Early Round Overvalued Running Backs

1. Ashton Gentry

Jake Seeley kicks off the discussion by addressing Ashton Gentry, who is currently ranked as RB4 in consensus rankings. Despite high expectations, Seeley expresses reservations about drafting Gentry ahead of more established RBs like Derek Henry and Josh Jacobs.

Jake Seeley (03:08): "I just look at Genty and I go back to Bijan Robinson who we were all excited about... I have him at 8 because I think we have to bake in the risk that the Raiders offense is going to limit him a little bit."

Ryan Heath concurs, highlighting concerns about Gentry's offensive environment and touchdown upside.

Ryan Heath (04:51): "I just don't see the touchdown upside. I am a Geno Smith believer, but it would really have to be a much better offense than Vegas or anyone in the industry expects for Genti to really post a truly league-winning RB1 season."

2. Josh Jacobs

Ryan Heath introduces Josh Jacobs as an overvalued RB, questioning his high ADP (Average Draft Position) due to expected changes in the Packers' offensive strategy.

Ryan Heath (05:54): "I just can't justify drafting him as anything close to an RB2 at this point."

Jake Seeley agrees, noting Jacobs' sensitivity to game scripts and potential regression in offensive performance.

Jake Seeley (09:33): "I think we are just assuming everything's going to be fine... It's risky to say everything's just going to be the same that we've seen for the past three years."

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Mid-Round Overvalued Running Backs

1. Joe Mixon

The conversation shifts to Joe Mixon, deemed overvalued due to a crowded backfield and injury concerns. Both Seeley and Heath express skepticism about Mixon's ability to maintain high performance levels.

Jake Seeley (10:24): "I do not want to mix with any of my teams."

Ryan Heath (12:35): "I just think that at least in that respect, teams have kind of figured out the Texans a little bit."

2. James Cook

Ryan Heath critiques James Cook for his high touchdown efficiency last season, predicting regression and diminished receiving targets.

Ryan Heath (14:20): "Cook ranked as just the RB25 last year with only 12.6 expected fantasy points per game. I just don’t think it’s likely he does it again."

Jake Seeley supports this view, emphasizing that Cook's extraordinary touchdown rate is unsustainable.

Jake Seeley (16:18): "I just think this is what you see is a lot of people don't expect this to continue."

3. DeAndre Swift

Swift is highlighted as an overvalued mid-round RB due to his limited role in offensive schemes and lack of versatility.

Ryan Heath (32:22): "He averages 3.2 career yards per carry on outside zone and kind of similarly to a lot of the running backs we've talked about."

Jake Seeley (34:14): "But all that being said, well I think Mannon guy is a fine late-round flyer."

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Risky Running Backs Worth Considering

1. Breece Hall

Ryan Heath identifies Breece Hall as a risky yet potentially rewarding pick. Despite injury history, Hall's high target share and yards per carry make him an intriguing option if he remains healthy.

Ryan Heath (42:01): "What you need for this pick to massively pay off is for Aaron Glenn to be lying and for Hall to stay healthy."

2. Kenneth Walker

Jake Seeley reluctantly discusses Kenneth Walker, noting his injury concerns but acknowledging his role as a three-down weapon in the Seahawks' offense.

Jake Seeley (46:32): "He's a decent 230 touch guy. Like I don't think he's going to be a bell guy."

Ryan Heath compares Walker to other Tier 3 RBs, indicating comfort with his current ranking but cautious optimism about his potential.

Ryan Heath (46:15): "I'm comfortable honestly with where all four of those guys are ranked."

3. Javante Williams

Seeley considers Javante Williams a gamble due to his decline post-injury, yet sees value potential if he regains form.

Jake Seeley (36:45): "If Javante Williams is 90% of what he used to be and he gets 250, 240 touches in this backfield, he's not going to be a league winner, but it'll be somebody that you can slide into your RB two spots more, more often than not."

Ryan Heath remains skeptical, comparing Williams unfavorably to Miles Sanders and preferring higher-ranked options.

Ryan Heath (40:36): "He really is just somebody that you can slide into your RB two spots more... I just can't be it on Javante."

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Conclusions and Final Thoughts

The panel concludes by reaffirming the importance of strategic drafting, emphasizing the need to avoid overvalued players and cautiously consider high-risk options that could pay off if conditions improve. The experts advocate for a balanced approach, leveraging their insights to navigate the complexities of fantasy football drafting.

Jake Seeley (48:36): "We are just risking some high-upside players in a crowded backfield environment."

Ryan Heath (35:36): "I think it's worth mentioning that there is a difference between how you rank a guy sometimes and how you kind of philosophically approach your draft day strategy."

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Key Takeaways

• Avoid Overvalued Early RBs: Ashton Gentry and Josh Jacobs are prime candidates to be overvalued in early rounds due to potential offensive limitations and changing team dynamics.

• Caution with Mid-Round RBs: Players like Joe Mixon, James Cook, and DeAndre Swift may not deliver consistent performance, making them risky picks in mid-rounds.

• Consider High-Risk, High-Reward RBs: Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker offer potential upside if they can overcome injury concerns and establish themselves as key offensive contributors.

• Strategic Drafting: Balancing player rankings with draft strategies is crucial to building a competitive fantasy football team.

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Notable Quotes

• Jake Seeley (03:08): "It's not that I hate him, I just hate where he's going."

• Ryan Heath (04:51): "I just don't see the touchdown upside."

• Jake Seeley (09:33): "It’s risky to say everything’s just going to be the same that we’ve seen for the past three years."

• Ryan Heath (14:20): "Cook is a favorite me right now."

• Jake Seeley (36:45): "I will take Alvin Camara as the top 15 running back."

• Ryan Heath (42:01): "That's all it takes is it sounds so easy."

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Final Remarks

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis for fantasy football enthusiasts, offering expert opinions on which running backs to steer clear of in the 2025 drafts. By highlighting both overvalued and risky players, Ryan, Jake Seeley, and Ryan Heath equip listeners with valuable insights to refine their draft strategies and enhance their chances of success in the upcoming season.

For more detailed rankings and custom draft tools, listeners are encouraged to visit FantasyPros.com and utilize their Cheat Sheet Creator and Draft Intel features.

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Note: This summary excludes advertisements, intros, outros, and non-content segments to focus solely on the main discussion topics.

Transcript

[Ryan]

This is an iHeart podcast. Fantasy Pro's fantasy football podcast is brought to you by Grainger. If you work as a maintenance manager, your facility is your home turf and your home field advantage is having a partner like Grainger. They offer trusted professional grade products for every industry from lighting and electrical to safety and everything in between, plus next day delivery. Which is why they always come through in the clutch. Trust just like you. Call 1-800-granger. Click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy pros football podcast. I'm Ryan, warmly joined today by Jake Seeley from the Athletic and by Ryan Heath from Fantasy Points. Fellas, we are into July. It is July 2 as of the day we are recording this. So we are just a month away from the height of draft season. But really, it does feel like it ramps up right about now that July 4th is kind of the milestone for where things really kick into high gear. So it's a very exciting time of year. I'm really excited to be talking some running backs to run from on today's show with the two of you. These are running backs that we will be avoiding and we're going to throw in some at the end that maybe even though they're risky, have some red flags that we are still considering drafting as well. Jake, like I said, into July now. How are you doing, man?

[Jake Seeley]

I'm doing good. I'm doing really good. It's July. I have what, two, three more weeks before the real hellstorm starts for all of us. But at least it's, it's, it's creeping in. We know that the people want it.

[Ryan]

I feel like every year it gets a little bit earlier and earlier in the off season that you see the swarm start coming.

[Jake Seeley]

All the sites, we're all doing the same thing. It's like, well, they're already out now. We need to jump in front of them and we need to jump in front. By the time we turn around in two years, we're going to be releasing this kit on like April.

[Ryan]

Yeah, it gets earlier and earlier every year. Ryan. This is the first time we're doing a show together, man. Thanks for coming on.

[Ryan Heath]

Yeah, yeah. Thanks for having me so much. Very excited. Yeah. Awesome to meet and work with both of you. This should be a really fun show.

[Ryan]

What do you have going on at Fantasy Points right now?

[Ryan Heath]

Yeah, right now kind of just grinding through a bunch of off season articles. I am writing about a bunch of different metrics that we have in the Fantasy Points data suite and like some different ways that those can get you an edge in your fantasy league. So talking about like design targets, expected fantasy points, all sorts of good stuff. So yeah, you can check all that out. All my writing on fantasypoints.com Jake any.

[Ryan]

Projects you're working on at the Athletic?

[Jake Seeley]

Actually my breakout top seven wide receivers just came out today and I actually use Fantasy Points to back up my opinion of Josh Downs and using his separation score and win rate percentage. I like to do the mix of both and so yeah, I was on the site yesterday. Thank you Scott Barrett for that.

[Ryan]

Nice. We love the synergy going on here already. Quick reminder for everybody that all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com rankings. You can go to all your different scoring formats from there. We're going to go through some early round running backs first that we think are a little overvalued, then some mid round guys. Then we'll wrap with the players that we are considering still drafting even with some of these red flags. Jake, let's start with you. Your first overvalued running back that's going early.

[Jake Seeley]

I figure why not come out of the gate strong, right? Just get everybody to turn the show off like screw it, not listen to the rest of it. But it's Ashton Genty and that's Look, I couldn't have lauded Ashton Genti more than most everybody did coming to this dream. We know how good he is. But then I look at it and it really comes to I'm avoiding him, where he's going because if we're going by consensus, he's RB4 and I'm just not going to take him as RB4. Not because I don't believe in Genting. Not that I don't believe that the Raiders offense can be better than it has been, especially with Geno Smith and everything they've done. I just don't believe in taking Genty in front of Derek Henry and Josh Jacobs. And I know there's a Christian McCaffrey argument out there, but I'll still take him. Mostly because I know this team still has to face some of the toughest run defenses in the league. Twice they face the Chiefs and I know this is all on paper. Things can change by the time that they face each other and that happens every single year. But I just look at Genti and I go back to Bijan Robinson who we were all excited about. Bijan was going second, third, fourth running back off the board because he's Bijan Robinson just like Genti is right now. And as a disappointment, Bijan Robinson was RB8 or 9 and that's where I have Genti. I have him at 8 because I think we have to bake in the risk that the Raiders offense is going to limit him a little bit. And if nothing more, that might not be the touches. He'll get 300 touches, but they might limit him on the touchdown upside. I just think he's a fine pick early in the second round. I'm just not taking him mid early first and then as the fourth running back off the board. That's all it is. It's not that I hate him, I just hate where he's going.

[Ryan]

Ryan, what do you think about Gent? He's RB4, right at the top of tier two in our expert consensus rankings. Obviously as a rookie, you know everybody's super excited, but we haven't actually seen it yet. Do you agree with Jake that early second round is more where you're comfortable or do you see him as a first round player?

[Ryan Heath]

I am kind of with Jake here. I'm glad that Jake picked him because Genti was who I wanted to pick kind of. But then I was too scared to write down his name essentially. But yeah, I mean of the running backs going in the first round, Genti is the one I'm the least excited about. I would rather draft Christian McCaffrey. I would rather draft Devon Achan. And yeah, it really is just because of the the offense. I just don't see the touchdown upside. I am a Geno Smith believer, but it would really have to be a much better offense than Vegas or anyone in the industry expects for Genti to really post a truly league winning RB1 season.

[Ryan]

Ryan, would you rather Genti or Derrick Henry? Because you mentioned HN and McCaffrey. Those guys are RB6 and RB7 in our expert consensus rankings. Henry's RB5 so he's ahead of both of those guys as well. Between Genti and Henry, who would you prefer?

[Ryan Heath]

Yeah, I would take Henry as well.

[Ryan]

Okay. That is one that I hope people don't turn off because of it. But you know there will be some people who disagree with you there. Jake. Ryan, let's go to your first early overvalued running back.

[Ryan Heath]

So my overvalued guy is someone that Jake actually just mentioned. It's Josh Jacobs for me. I can't get on board with a top two or top three round ADP for Jacobs and it's because I expect the packers offense to just look very different. So I think last year they averaged a negative 4.5% pass rate over expectation. That just means that they were the third most run heavy team in the league, controlling for down and distance and game situation and game script and all of that. Right, but that's not what we've seen out of Matt LaFleur's offenses historically over the past three seasons they ranked 14th, 20th and 5th most pass heavy by that same metric. They, they just added Matthew golden in round one. There's likely an intention here to get back at least to a more balanced attack. And Even before Jordan Love's midseason groin injury, he was averaging 35.8 pass attempts per game. That was fourth most among quarterbacks. So just kind of this confluence of factors that happened last year with Love getting banged up and with the packers kind of beating up on a lot of really bad teams in the second half of the year, it led to all of this awesome production for Jacobs. But I just don't expect the environment to be the same this year. The packers have a bottom 10 schedule by opponent Vegas win total. So again they're probably not going to be coasting to wins like they were last year. And Jacobs has been very game script sensitive over his career. He averages seven fewer points per game in half PPR formats in losses than he does in wins since 2022. So I would just much rather have kind kind of any other second or third round running back than Jacobs at this point.

[Ryan]

I really agree with you on this one, Ryan. I think the point about Love's injury is just like very central to this argument and I would be very surprised if the they are as run heavy this year as they were last year, assuming Love is healthy. I want to quickly ask you before I throw to Jake on Jacobs, do you think Jordan Love is then undervalued? If you're expecting more passing, he's currently QB17. I know this is a running backs episode, but I'm curious like if you're on Jacobs, does that mean that you're higher on Love?

[Ryan Heath]

Yeah, I'm a bit higher on Love than that. It's hard for single quarterback leagues just because like the big upside QBs are really all that matter. But yeah, certainly in Super Flex I think Love is a great pick and I think maybe the most actionable way to do this is Matthew golden and Jaden Reed if I'm correct and the packers are throwing more. Both of those guys are really interesting values.

[Ryan]

Jake, how do you see this offense playing out? Is Josh Jacobs overvalued at RB9.

[Jake Seeley]

I actually think he's probably pretty much right in value obviously on the slim side of this one because you guys are in agreement. But I would take him in the second round mostly because I actually don't disagree a lot with what Ryan said. It mostly comes down to if even if you go back to two years ago, we're still talking about over 330 carries between Jones and Dylan in that backfield and if you just take Jones in the passing game that year, about 40 targets which that's all I don't expect Josh Jacobs to all of a sudd offset the rushing concerns with 70 targets. That's not going to happen, but I think the touchdown equity is still going to be valuable. I do think that I actually have him for less touches or fewer touches to do it correctly according to Game of Thrones, fewer touches in the run game. But I still think hovering around 310 to 320 receptions included is why I'm okay with Jacobs. I would agree if he was first round early second, but I would take them neck and neck. Like I said right with Genti because I believe in the touchdown. I think their touches could be similar. I think the touchdowns will be better for Jacobs and maybe that's where it's a little bit different. So I am willing to take him in the second round.

[Ryan]

My dad is an English teacher so that line in Game of Thrones of Fury is his favorite line in the show. I I would have to imagine by the way, I love Jake when you say I agree with what Ryan said because I can pretend you're talking about me and not it actually works because.

[Jake Seeley]

I could agree with the Ryan's yeah, exactly.

[Ryan]

I do want to remind everybody about our cheat Sheet creator if you're tired of draft day uncertainty, the Cheat sheet creator is your personal guide to perfect league specific rank. Visualize your path to victory as you add tiers and sync your league to craft custom rankings, ensuring every pick is strategic and tailored to your league settings. Sync your league and enter your draft with confidence using the Cheat sheet [e-mail] sheet or on the Fantasy Football Draft wizard app. All right Jake, let's go to your next early overvalued running back.

[Jake Seeley]

Way overvalued in my opinion. Like and I this was before the signing to add even more concerning this backfield with Chubb but we always say like we never own a player and like well at some point there's always going to be a breaking point where if he falls Far enough that you will draft said player. I have a feeling this is one that I actually will never own because I have Joe mixon in the mid-20s. I cannot ignore the injury concern, the signing and honestly, even if you look at the drafting situation of Woody Marks, I actually thought Woody Marks was a very nice handcuff initially before the signing to say that hey, if Joe Mixon isn't 100% similar skill set in some ways to Joe Mix, in some ways, not all. But I look at his backfield, I'm just like, man, this is, this is about to be gross. And I think that you see that the Texans were not confident in what they had. They added Marks, they know that Damian Pierce hasn't been the answer since his rookie season. But they went out and made this signing Nick Chubb and said like, hey, maybe Joe Mixon we should be more concerned than we already were. I already had Joe Mixon outside the top 15 before the signing and like I said, now I have him down in the range of like a Pacheco. Like I'd rather just take Pacheco and hope he rebounds to his pre injury performance than, than to gamble that mixing is anything when he's been. And as much as we've enjoyed mixing in fantasy, I don't think you'll find a single person that would argue against saying he's been volume reliant. And so if the volume is not there and it's not, you know, the worst case in the world to say, hey, he is volume reliant but if he's not getting 300 touches and he's only getting 200, I mean honestly a mid RB2 might be the best case scenario.

[Ryan]

Yeah, Jake, even aside from the more crowded backfield, like I think we're hoping that the Texans throw more too. I mean it was, it became like a running gag last year that they started every drive on second and nine because they were just running for sometimes a loss, but usually like a yard or two at most to start every series.

[Jake Seeley]

And it was the, the Giants offense, they stole their playbook.

[Ryan]

Yeah, so I, I, I'm with you on this. Like I, I could see myself having Joe Mixon in some leagues, but I'm going to feel terrible about it if I do and, and I will not, I will not be aggressively going after me. Far from it. Ryan, what do you think about mixing this year?

[Ryan Heath]

Yeah, I agree with pretty much everything that Jake said. Another thing I would add is that this Texans offensive line could once again be easily the worst in the league. The reports right now out of camp are that they're just rotating starters at all the positions. They don't, they don't know where anybody's actually playing. Like that's just very, very bad vibes to me. So, yeah, fully with Jake here, I also do not want mixing on any of my teams.

[Ryan]

Do you guys think that there will be more scoring opportunities? Like you're expecting a bounce back from the offense in general and we're just not certain that those scoring opportunities are going to go to mix in Ryan or are you hesitant about actually seeing kind of a bounce back with a revamped offensive line and everything in Houston?

[Ryan Heath]

Yeah, I'm just hesitant kind of about everything in Houston. We have seen CJ Stroud just take awful, awful sacks for his. And really a little bit in his rookie year, but also especially in his sophomore season, every time that the defense runs a stunt, he just immediately gets sacked. The Texans line was the worst against stunts of any team last year. So yeah, I just think that at least in that respect, teams have kind of figured out the Texans a little bit. So yeah, I'm pretty worried about the entire offense.

[Ryan]

Jake, where do you think this offense finishes this season in scoring?

[Jake Seeley]

I would love to say middle of the pack, but I think another part of it is, even if it gets the middle of the pack, something that the other Ryan. Ryan Heath was saying about the packers is I think you could see them passing more to your point is that I think they get back to a little bit more from two years ago, which of course would affect Joe Mixon even if we didn't have the chub and marks and health concerns.

[Ryan]

Ryan, who's your next early overvalued running back?

[Ryan Heath]

Yeah, my next guy's a little bit boring because it's a very like one dimensional argument and reason, but it's, it's James Cook for me. I think he's overvalued still. And the reason for that is, is really just touchdown regression. So Cook converted 25% of his red zone carries into touchdowns last year. That was easily the most in the NFL. It was more than all of the league's like best and most efficient goal linebacks. Better than Derrick Henry, better than David Montgomery, like just all insane touchdown efficiency that we saw from him on the ground. On top of that, Josh Allen is always going to take around 30% of the red zone carries right off the top. At the very least at fantasy points, we have a metric called expected fantasy points per game which will just kind of show you how valuable Each touch is because it's different in the red zone, near the goal line or what have you. But by that metric, Cook ranked as just the RB25 last year with only 12.6 expected fantasy points per game. Right now he's going as around the RB12, kind of as a fringe RB1. That's how he scored last year, but I just don't think it's likely he does it again. And even worse, he kind of took a step back as a receiver averaging just 2.4 targets per game. And that was because of Ty Johnson of all players who's taking you off the field on third down. So I just, it gives me really bad vibes. I don't like it at all. Generally to be like a truly league winning running back, you need to average at least three and a half targets per game. It seems unlikely for Cook at least if they continue to run their offense in their backfield the way they have. So yeah, Cook is a favorite me right now.

[Ryan]

What do you think about this one, Jake? I know in addition to everything that Ryan has said, you know Pat Fitz Morris here at Fantasy Bros. Is also really high on Ray Davis. Just as like another person in this backfield. Do you think Cook is overvalued, Jake?

[Jake Seeley]

I think he's slightly overvalued. It seems that at least somewhat of the community, the fantasy community realizes what Ryan says and he's spot on with this. I mean if you go to David Montgomery who had, if you just talk about pure rushes to Touchdown is a 6.5% mark, which is extremely high. James Cook was 7.7 of his rushes, went for a touchdown and then he gave you that conversion rate on top of it. I mean these are numbers that we haven't seen since LeGarrett Blunt's year. Like this is just, it's not normal. This doesn't happen. And if you look at LeGarrett blunt, completely different team also, but also a completely different running back. I just don't think this is going to continue. And I think that's what you see is a lot of people don't expect this to continue. And if you take even six touchdowns, which isn't even cutting in half, but if you take six away, we're talking about an RV2 just because he only still ran the ball 207 times. So I'm with Ryan on this one, disagreed on the first one, but completely on board within this one is I'd rather have James Cook further down the draft that I can. The good news is because of where he's going. I'm usually taking a wide receiver here anyway.

[Ryan]

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[Ryan Heath]

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[Ryan]

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[Ryan]

All right guys, let's move to sort of the middle round running backs now. Jake, starting with you.

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, and I already got a couple questions so far this preseason. Like why do you hate Tony Pollard? And I'll give you the easy answer of why I hate Tony Pollard is just because I hate where's the ceiling? Like we've just seen the best, actually the best of Tony Pollard. To talk about the touchdown regression we were just talking about with James Cook, the best year was when he ran for nine with the Cowboys and he's had six and six hovering in that 11 points per game range. And it's Even with the questions of okay Spears going to finally do something and it's mostly still been Tony Pollard as the clear lead and we still get best case scenario as a back end RB2 like where's the ceiling? Like even if there was nobody else in this backfield, the ceiling is still like okay, cool, he's a mid RB2 and that's my issue with it is that he's going as a back end RB2 and I'd rather have him as an RB3 or the first running back off my bench maybe if you know, if I had four wide receivers and a running back and he's my second rb, cool, I can get with that. But that's why I have him 33 is because that's where I'd want him. I would rather have Cam, Scatterboo and Judkins as rookies. I'd rather have Brian Robinson as his situation with the Commanders. There's just other running backs I would take because they're similar value as they stand and they have higher ceilings. I think there's just no ceiling with Tony Pollard.

[Ryan]

Tony Pollard is RB26 in our half year rankings. So yeah, just a very high end RB3 currently in the rankings. Ryan, does that sound too high, too low or just right to you?

[Ryan Heath]

I think it sounds about right. Honestly, I am fine with Pollard this season and to just directly answer Jake's question, I think the ceiling comes from just if Cam Ward is better than anybody thinks, would that be such a surprise that a first overall drafted quarterback is immediately way better than kind of the scouting industrial complex thought that we've seen that happen plenty of times. And if that's the case then this is suddenly a good offense. I think the Titans are it's a much more like volatile projection in terms of what their points per game output is going to be just because of the Cam Ward factor. And yeah, with Pollard we saw him be a bell cow for pretty much the entirety of last year. He did put up big fantasy weeks in a handful of games that the Titans were not totally out of. So yeah, I kind of like Pollard probably a little bit more of like a best ball style pick because yes, I don't see like the massive league winning season out of him like you might from a rookie like an RJ Harvey for example. But yeah, I think Pollard's totally fine where he's going. It's not that offensive to me.

[Ryan]

The interesting thing with Pollard is like I feel like when I say RB26 that doesn't sound crazy in a vacuum. But then I look at the few names going after him, at least in terms of ECR. And like RB27 is Judkins, RB28 is Pacheco, RB29 is Caleb Johnson, RB30 Brian Robinson Jr. And I'm like, I kind of could see the case for all those guys ahead of him. So it's like I don't like 26 doesn't sound terrible. But then I look at the names after him and I just feel like maybe he should move down a bit. Not that I think he should be like in the, you know, mid to late 30s or anything drastic, but I do like a lot of those names that are going directly after him just a little bit better. So I can kind of see both sides of this case. Ryan, let's go to your next running back.

[Ryan Heath]

Yeah, so my next guy is someone we've mentioned, it's David Montgomery. And even aside from all the touchdown efficiency stuff that Jake brought up earlier, my kind of bigger concern is just can the Lions maintain as valuable of a backfield and as valuable of a rushing attack as they have had over the last two seasons? Last year their entire backfield was worth about 30 expected fantasy points per game, which is insane. That was by far the most. The Bucks were second, I think, and they were down at like 25 or somewhere around there. But that giant backfield pie was actually split pretty much perfectly 5050 in games that both Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs were healthy. So that kind of leaves us with two ways for for Montgomery to just fall out of like the RB2 and Flex tier. Either the Lions can't maintain that valuable of a backfield with fewer TDs. Maybe they have to pass more. Lots of different ways that you can just imagine the offense regressing without Ben Johnson. Or alternatively, their new OC could come in and just decide, hey, I'm going to give a slightly larger snapshare to Jameer Gibbs, who we saw average over 165 yards from scrimmage per game in the four games they gave him like a 66% snap share without with Montgomery out. So either of those things happen and all of a sudden Montgomery is not a handcuff that you can play in your flex now. He's just an extremely expensive handcuff that is not really providing much value week to week without a Jameer Gibbs injury. And that's true of basically every other much cheaper true handcuff running back like your Zach Charbonnet's, your Isaac Arundos, or whatever your preferred flavor is there. So yeah, with the upside case for Montgomery just being the Gibbs injury, I just can't justify drafting him as anything close to an RB2.

[Ryan]

Jake, where do you have Montgomery ranked? He's RB21 in ACR and half PPR.

[Jake Seeley]

I have a 26. I'm with Ryan on this one. A lot of things he said, as I've echoed on these shows past couple weeks, is that we're just assuming everything's going to be fine. As in the ranks are showing that we're assuming everything's going to be fine and it's just going to be copy paste for the Lions. And I even mentioned in my breakout column I brought up Jameson Williams and I was like part of the case against him would be that John Morton comes in and does go that route or does change the offense just a little bit. They even said early on golf has been mentioned as saying is like there's going to be slight differences that you'll see. Well if we're seeing it, it might be bigger than he's letting on in the fact of like it's slight to him, but it's bigger in the overall scheme of things. And just, you know, the rag now thing is impressive because it's still as good as he was as a blocker. Playing through the injury torn pack, playing through that last year, like that's a loss that we have to factor in. There's just a lot of issues where it's just, it's risky to say everything's just going to be the same that we've seen for the past three years. And if you go back to Morton, like you know, coming from a system that in the last two years at least has been desean Payton. But if you go to the last time he was the offensive coordinator way, way, way back with the jets, here's a name to throw out for everybody. He leaned on Bilal Powell a lot and that was with Matt Forte's corpse in that backfield. But I say that to say this is why I echo Ryan is because even Bilal Powell, he like kind of leaned on. He wasn't a true bell cow. But to Ryan's point, what if Morton's style is to say I have this amazing running back in Gibbs, I'm going to give him 10% more, which isn't a lot, but it's enough to say, oh my gosh, David Montgomery is going from scoring 12, 13 on the ground to nine and only 150 touches and that's just, that's going to make him.

[Ryan]

An RB3 Similar question, Jake, to what we talked about with Houston. The offensive environment overall. If you had to put a number to it with the offensive coordinator change, where do you think the Lions end up this year in scoring?

[Jake Seeley]

I would almost guarantee money still top 10. The question is whether or not it's top five. But and that that but that top five top 10 is the difference of whether or not we care about David Montgomery as RB2.

[Ryan]

Ryan, do you see them as more top five or top 10?

[Ryan Heath]

Oh yeah, I got a pick now. Yeah, I'm, I'm going to go outside the top five will be my prediction. Yeah.

[Ryan]

Okay. I want to remind everybody about one last tool today. Draft intel shows you how your league mates actually draft based on up to five years of real data. Find out who always takes wide receivers early, fades tight ends or targets quarterbacks late. Use those tendencies in the draft simulator to test real strategies against your actual league. Try it [e-mail] intel and draft smarter than ever. Jake, give me another mid round running back you are avoiding.

[Jake Seeley]

So this is a lot of kind of opinion on this one. It's Tyrone Tracy and the fact that I do believe that Scatterboo can come in and be and likely be the lead mostly because and I just did a show recently with Joe on Fantasy pros on here and I said I think some of us in fantasy like the world, I'm talking to everybody, analysts and players. It's just like we get enamored with oh my gosh, he came from nowhere. I put that in quotes like he came unexpected. I found this guy and look at all the talent. He even surprised the NFL. And then it's like you don't want to let go. And like sometimes in my opinion, Tyrone Tracy is a great complimentary running back. I was somebody who was on Tracy last year mostly because I wasn't a big fan of Devin Singletary and the rest of the and Gray and all the other running backs. But I think that while he took everybody by well not everybody, but took a lot of people by surprise, he's still a limited running back and one of the limits that the concern is even part of his game is Brian Dable benched him to go back to Singletary because he was fumbling the ball and not say that's something that can't be corrected. And you just keep a guy off the field because he fumbles. We yelled at years of Belichick doing that like just give the best guy the ball. Adrian Peterson fumbled. We know that. But I'M saying all this to present is that I think Scatter Boo versus Tracy, if I'm taking talent versus talent I would take Scatter Boo over Tracy and I think part of Scottaboo's game that gets underrated is his pass catching ability which is really where the game of Tracy comes from because of his explosiveness. So I see this as more of like a 6040 split which means where Tracy is going in drafts is overdrafted. I would happily still take Tracy further down just where he's going. I think he's still being treated as the 55:45 lead split of that backfield and I think it's actually going to be he's going to be on the back half of it.

[Ryan]

Ryan, what do you think this backfield looks like?

[Ryan Heath]

So I'm like fairly I would say I don't have an opinion super locked in on how this backfield looks like but I do have like a way I like to approach these ambiguous backfields and that's that I don't really care which running back ends up on which side of the 5545 split. I only care about can this running back make it a 70% opportunity share. Right. Especially on a team like the Giants where that has to be the case for there to really be any fantasy value there has to be a bell cow. Yeah, I try not to get caught up so much in what's the likelihood of being at a 55% versus a 45% in this particular case. I will slightly prefer Scatter Boo because for the reason that Jake said, because I feel more confident in his pass catching abilities. But honestly this backfield is just not that big of a target for me in general and I don't feel like particularly strong.

[Jake Seeley]

That's part of the factor too, honestly. Yeah.

[Ryan]

But just to let everybody know the rankings, Tyrone Tracy Jr. Is 31st amongst our running backs in ECR and Scottaboo's 40th amongst running backs in ECR. So you know a nine back gap there between the two. Ryan, let's go to the last mid round running back.

[Ryan Heath]

Yeah so my last mid round guy is DeAndre Swift and it's for several reasons but kind of going through some of them. Over his career Swift has primarily been a man gap rusher. Right. In his last season under Ben Johnson he mostly ran a very man gap heavy season scheme but very notably in that year Swift averaged A career low 7.1 rush attempts per game. And then I think very revealingly as soon as the Lions ship Swift off, Johnson moved to a lot more outside zone and obviously had a lot of success over the last two years doing that with Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery. So if that is Johnson's kind of preferred scheme that he wants to run, Swift doesn't fit it at all. He averages 3.2 career yards per carry on outside zone and kind of similarly to a lot of the running backs we've talked about. I just don't really see the upside with Swift. We even if you think wow, the Bears are going to be a much better offense this year, we just saw DeAndre Swift in a lead back role on a better offense. It was with the Eagles in 2023. He finished with just 12 and a half fantasy points per game. I don't see the league winning upside out of DeAndre Swift at all. I would much rather be taking shots on guys like Isaiah Pacheco who we have seen at least for some games be a bell cow on a confirmed good offense, even Tony Pollard, just because I can also see a path to that offense being good Steelers running backs taking shots on that ambiguous situation. There are just other places I would rather rather be sending my bullets than DeAndre Swift this year.

[Ryan]

RB22 in ECR Jake, is that too high, too low or just right?

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, I'm not crazy off from what Ryan said. I'm just I'm okay. This is similar to what he was saying about my guy earlier. I'm actually okay with Swift but I'm okay with Swift and knowing what you're getting like I think honestly you could be like hey Jake, you're playing both sides of the fence here because similar to Pollard before I do think he has a limited ceiling like that. I give you like the why would you take Swift? It's mostly more also I'm not a big Roshan Johnson fan and maybe I'm wrong in this or maybe I'm ignoring the connection that Andrew Erickson keeps bringing up on this shows and saying B enemy drafted Pacheco at a Rutgers and he's with the Bears now and Manon Guy is from Rutgers and now we're down this rabbit hole of like connecting all the dots. But all that being said, well I think Manon guy is a fine late round flyer and this could be a full blown committee or Ben Johnson could just say like hey you're done Swift and I am going to turn to Johnson or Menon guy and now you're this now you are the Tyrone Tracy that I just brought up. I just feel like he's a decent 230 touch guy. Like I don't think he's going to be a bell guy. I don't think he's going to be a league winner as Ryan said. Completely agree with all those. I just, I'm kind of okay where he is because where he is, I feel like he's a cool RB2 and in this range, usually that's an RB2 with three or four wide receivers already on my team. So it kind of, like I said, it kind of almost sounds like I'm playing both sides with the Pollard Swift thing, but I'm just a little bit more okay with Swift.

[Ryan]

I think for me it's the difference between ranking and, and drafting. Like I think this is the right ranking for him, but I don't think I'm going to be targeting him at this ranking. I mean if you just like looking in last five years, finish amongst running backs, 18, 19, 22, 23, 19, 22, you can, you know, easily paint that picture that that's the right, you know, number for him to be near. But I don't want him at this range. There are going to be other players that I'd rather have or I'd rather wait and a lot of those names that you mentioned, Ryan, that, you know, you'd rather, you know, Steelers backfield, you know, some of the upside plays elsewhere that are going later than him, I would just rather wait and target a guy there. So I think it's worth mentioning that there is a difference between how you rank a guy sometimes and how you kind of philosophically approach your, your draft day strategy. And that's good to keep in mind. Let's go to one risky running back from each of you that you are still tempted to draft. That even despite the red flags, you recognize that there is a risk here that you are still interested in you guys. Actually both you made one pick each but you both mentioned second names that you were considering too. So feel free to mention both if you'd like. But also who the one guy is that if you had to pick one, you are tempted to draft Jake, you can go first.

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, I think with me I'm willing to gamble on Javante Williams and that's from somebody that's like, go ahead and get Jaydon blue. Like I like blue and I think a lot of people do. But the truth is is, you know, they took the chance it wasn't a big contract. They let Rico Dowdle walk for almost the exact same contract and then brought in Javante Williams, that being the Cowboys. But you know, we all sit here and whether you're watching film or watching the games or looking at the analysts and looking at the metrics or whatever it might be, we've all seen that Javante Williams is not the same running back since he got hurt. But what if it's the extra year removed? He wouldn't be the first running back that needed that extra year sometimes. And that's oh my gosh, he's finally back. And the thing is he's not going as an RB2. He's not even going where he was last year. He's going somewhere where he's going to be on your bench when you're done drafting. Like you're not drafting him to start RB mid-30s. Okay, what's the if Javante Williams is 90% of what he used to be and he gets 250, 240 touches in this backfield, he's not going to be a league winner, but it'll be somebody that you can slide into your RB two spots more, more often than not. And Jaden Blue wouldn't be the first ballyhoo, you know, rookie to like not win the job and just never get out there. Like, I mean what was the dude, the Raiders guy last year that everybody wanted to draft and end up being a non factor? I'm trying to think of his name right now, but just there's, there's situations where like sometimes the veteran has a chance if he could just show anything. So I will take a chance on Javante Williams in the mid-30s. The other one I did mention and the only reason I didn't mention is because I think I've mentioned him on every show with you. Worm is Alvin Camara. Like I know everybody wants to fade the Saints offense because it's going to be worse than the league, but Alvin Camara is still going to get 250 touches and almost what, a third of them are going to be in the passing game. So I'm still going to take Alvin Camara as the top 15 running back, but I think this is the first time I've spoken positively about Javante Williams this entire off season.

[Ryan]

I didn't want to interrupt you. Is Zemir White the Raiders running back you were thinking?

[Jake Seeley]

No, it was the other one. It's the little small dude, Abdullah. No, I'm going to point Raider. It was just drafted last year.

[Ryan Heath]

Oh, was it Dylan Lave?

[Jake Seeley]

Thank you. Everybody wanted lobby at the end of rounds last year is like he's going to take over because they have nobody else and like that's kind of how it I like blue significantly more than lobby but I'm just saying like these scenarios happen.

[Ryan]

Yeah I'm with you on Javante. I've I've been talking about him actually for a couple episodes now. Like again not that I think he's some league winner who's going to finish as an RB1 but if he stays healthy this season there there's just no way that he's not giving you value compared to RB36 off the drive. I mean he's barely an RB3 in the rankings right now. There's just I don't believe in anybody else in this backfield is going to get in his way and this is not even saying that I think he's going to be back to his pre injury self. He doesn't need to be in order to give you really good value. I think on everybody else this year.

[Jake Seeley]

Down by Javante are backups needing something to happen. Javante could legitimately doesn't need anything else to happen be the lead running back from day one and that's the one different. Like again if he gets up to RB26 goodbye. You're never going to touch my team but at 36 there is worth the.

[Ryan]

Gamble and I think this is going to be a good offense too. Like I think there's going there are going to be touchdowns available to score. I think this is the comparison that Erickson has made with Javante this year is like J.K. dobbins last year like a guy with an injury history but there's nobody else in the backfield if you think the offense is good enough that he's just going so late that you can't pass it up and that's really again I'm not calling him a league winner. Like I'm with you Jake. I'm not saying there's some insane upside and if he was going higher I wouldn't be interested but at this point cost like the opportunity is is what it is. Javante Williams Ryan, what do you think about him?

[Ryan Heath]

To me I just don't see that big of a difference between Javante Williams and like Miles Sanders which which is kind of my whole issue with him that with the Cowboys backfield then and this has been my take on the Cowboys backfield for the last two seasons. It's not a backfield that I believe is very likely to create fantasy value to the point that you're starting anybody in it in like a normal lineup. The only way it happened last year was Dak getting hurt and the team saying okay, we're just going to pack it in and run the ball a ton even if we're way down. And also Zeke had to skip a meeting or whatever it was for him to get for him to get benched and for Dowdle to really take over as a bell cow. So yeah, and then your reward is like a lot a low end RV2. So yeah, I, I just am not. I can't be it on Javante. I can't do it.

[Ryan]

Are you then drafting at RB67? Are you taking Sanders if you don't see a big difference but there's a, you know, 30 spots.

[Ryan Heath]

Yeah. That it may be. Yeah, I'll say in best ball I I've been dabbling in final round Miles Sanders. I think that that has been like a better best ball pick than Javante Williams many rounds earlier. But yeah, I'm just mostly not in on this backfield at all.

[Ryan]

What risky running back are you tempted to draft Ryan?

[Ryan Heath]

Yeah. So going a little further up the board, I think the guy that best fits this description this year is Breece Hall. So obviously everything that happened with hall last year happened massively. Disappointed at a top three ADP but zooming out a little bit. Over his first two seasons in the league, hall averaged 22 fantasy points per game when he was above a 50% snapshare. And that's mostly just removing injured games in some like early in 2023 when he was playing a part time role coming back from that ACL tear. Over his entire career, hall averages 4.8 targets per game. That is fourth best among active players over that span behind only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Austin Austin Ekeler. Hall ranks second in yards per out run among that same group. And I mean you'll notice Christian McCaffrey, Camara Echler, all of these players have been perennial league winners. They have combined for 12 league winning seasons since 2017 as measured by ESPN playoff rate. Hall now is going kind of around pick 40 like late 30s, early 40s in most sites. He has smashed that exact ADP in both 2022 and 2023. As for why it's risky and why it's very like tough for me but ultimately I'm doing it. I think that hall was playing injured through even more of last year than we probably recognize. Right. He had a mysterious lower half injury. That was the only descriptor we got of it at any point last summer in late May, early June. None of the details were ever disclosed and I think that might be why all of his GPS numbers were down early in the year and why we saw the jets kind of randomly from week to week go back and forth between giving hall like an 80% workload down to like 55% and the situation is just better this year. There's no devonte Adams anymore. Hall was still up at four five and a half targets per game last year before Adams joined the team. The only real concern is everything Aaron Glenn has said this entire offseason about wanting to use all three running backs, but to me it reads more as hyperbole. Glenn has said stuff like there aren't three other running backs in this league that have the potential of Breece Hall, Braylon Allen and Isaiah Davis. Like to me this is kind of Dan Campbell esque in that he will just relentlessly talk up all the players on his roster. He's not actually projecting their usage or their workloads. But when we look at what the actual offensive coordinator Tanner Angstrand has said, we know that he's told hall that he has to be ready to do everything and to play on all three downs. So ultimately all you need for this pick to massively pay off off and potentially become a league winner is for Aaron Glenn to be lying and for hall to stay healthy. That's all it takes is it sounds so easy. So yeah, that's why I'm in on Hall. The other guy that I'm in on is Ken Walker. I think he's a little risky for the same reason, just injury history. But I care about that a lot less than probably the average fantasy analyst. We have just seen that the Seahawks are now committed to using Walker as a three down weapon. Mike McDonald has called him that at multiple points over the last two years. Second in total missed tackles force behind only Derrick Henry. You get the Clint K outside zone scheme. We've also seen Kouviak funnel targets to running backs in the past. I just love Ken Walker in general as a bet. Think he's a little less risky than Hall.

[Ryan]

Tier 3 in the expert consensus rankings Ryan is Kyron Williams, Chase Brown, Breeze Hall, James Cook, Kenneth Walker. So we've already established that you are kind of fading Cook there. How would you compare Holland Walker to Kyron and Chase Brown? Do you like them better than those guys or are you comfortable with where they're ranked? You're just also targeting them.

[Ryan Heath]

I'm comfortable honestly with where all four of those guys are ranked. If I had to rank them straight up it would be Chase Brown, Walker Hall, Kyron. But I'm totally fine with where all of them are generally going.

[Ryan]

Jake, what do you think about both Breece hall and Kenneth Walker?

[Jake Seeley]

Yeah, well, if people have tuned into the previous shows, they know that I'm apparently the Kenneth Walker hater. So it just established that that I'd be more in on hall. You know, everything that Ryan said completely agree with. And the thing is if hall was going earlier than he was and actually where he was going about two or three months ago, I was more off on hall initially than to the value where he's at now, which I think is a fine price. Mostly the concerns and Ryan pretty much touched on them. Like I do have some concerns. If you look at the Justin Fields offense from past years, I know completely different teams and completely different schemes but getting to that goal line, you kind of offset Justin Fields at the goal line with the bigger power. And it's not that Breece hall doesn't have his own power like Breece hall is a terrific three down running back. It's just what if there is some truth to this and what if Braylon Allen is the discount David Montgomery to this team and you know, you're looking at the situation with Breeze, hall turns into Mirror Gibbs and it's the jets versus the Lions and we don't like the offense as much as the two. And that's just my concern. My concern is that the touchdown equity takes a hit if they really do lean on Braylon Allen as the power option, which is something that he excels at and again not that Breece hall can't. And then you have the chicken and the egg argument like you have the Justin Fields doesn't throw to his running backs a lot. Well, was that, you know, a microcosm of what he was dealing with at running back or is that just how Justin Fields plays his offense? So all those concerns I'm saying is why Breece hall is not going as an RB one and that that mysterious injury, I love that you bring that up too because like late in the year we also got it might be the knee that he had the ACL surgery on and like that just terrified me. But that was last year at the end of the year. But if that somehow carried over all that I'm saying is to say even with all those concerns where he's going, I'm okay if he starts to get positive news and creeps back up and gets close to top 10 like he was two or three months ago, I'm probably out at that point. But where he is now as kind of like what is your RB 1314? I'm totally okay with that.

[Ryan]

We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Those are all of our running backs to run from, plus a couple that we are considering drafting there at the end. Thank you to both Ryan and Jake for joining us today and thanks to everybody for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple [e-mail] review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at fantasyprose and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.

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[Ryan Heath]

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[Jake Seeley]

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[Ryan Heath]

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[Jake Seeley]

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[Ryan Heath]

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[Jake Seeley]

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[Ryan Heath]

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[Jake Seeley]

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[Ryan]

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[Ryan]

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