Podcast Summary: FantasyPros - Running Backs You Need to RUN FROM in 2025 (Ep. 1605)

Title: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Episode: FantasyPros - Running Backs You Need to RUN FROM in 2025
Release Date: July 6, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd," the focus shifts to the strategic elements of fantasy football, specifically targeting running backs (RBs) to avoid in the 2025 draft. Hosted by Ryan, the discussion features expert insights from Jake Seeley of The Athletic and Ryan Heath from Fantasy Points. The trio delves into the overvalued players in early and mid-rounds, as well as risky RBs that might still be worth considering despite certain red flags.

Early Round Overvalued Running Backs

1. Ashton Gentry

Jake Seeley kicks off the discussion by addressing Ashton Gentry, who is currently ranked as RB4 in consensus rankings. Despite high expectations, Seeley expresses reservations about drafting Gentry ahead of more established RBs like Derek Henry and Josh Jacobs.

Jake Seeley (03:08): "I just look at Genty and I go back to Bijan Robinson who we were all excited about... I have him at 8 because I think we have to bake in the risk that the Raiders offense is going to limit him a little bit."

Ryan Heath concurs, highlighting concerns about Gentry's offensive environment and touchdown upside.

Ryan Heath (04:51): "I just don't see the touchdown upside. I am a Geno Smith believer, but it would really have to be a much better offense than Vegas or anyone in the industry expects for Genti to really post a truly league-winning RB1 season."

2. Josh Jacobs

Ryan Heath introduces Josh Jacobs as an overvalued RB, questioning his high ADP (Average Draft Position) due to expected changes in the Packers' offensive strategy.

Ryan Heath (05:54): "I just can't justify drafting him as anything close to an RB2 at this point."

Jake Seeley agrees, noting Jacobs' sensitivity to game scripts and potential regression in offensive performance.

Jake Seeley (09:33): "I think we are just assuming everything's going to be fine... It's risky to say everything's just going to be the same that we've seen for the past three years."

Mid-Round Overvalued Running Backs

1. Joe Mixon

The conversation shifts to Joe Mixon, deemed overvalued due to a crowded backfield and injury concerns. Both Seeley and Heath express skepticism about Mixon's ability to maintain high performance levels.

Jake Seeley (10:24): "I do not want to mix with any of my teams."

Ryan Heath (12:35): "I just think that at least in that respect, teams have kind of figured out the Texans a little bit."

2. James Cook

Ryan Heath critiques James Cook for his high touchdown efficiency last season, predicting regression and diminished receiving targets.

Ryan Heath (14:20): "Cook ranked as just the RB25 last year with only 12.6 expected fantasy points per game. I just don’t think it’s likely he does it again."

Jake Seeley supports this view, emphasizing that Cook's extraordinary touchdown rate is unsustainable.

Jake Seeley (16:18): "I just think this is what you see is a lot of people don't expect this to continue."

3. DeAndre Swift

Swift is highlighted as an overvalued mid-round RB due to his limited role in offensive schemes and lack of versatility.

Ryan Heath (32:22): "He averages 3.2 career yards per carry on outside zone and kind of similarly to a lot of the running backs we've talked about."

Jake Seeley (34:14): "But all that being said, well I think Mannon guy is a fine late-round flyer."

Risky Running Backs Worth Considering

1. Breece Hall

Ryan Heath identifies Breece Hall as a risky yet potentially rewarding pick. Despite injury history, Hall's high target share and yards per carry make him an intriguing option if he remains healthy.

Ryan Heath (42:01): "What you need for this pick to massively pay off is for Aaron Glenn to be lying and for Hall to stay healthy."

2. Kenneth Walker

Jake Seeley reluctantly discusses Kenneth Walker, noting his injury concerns but acknowledging his role as a three-down weapon in the Seahawks' offense.

Jake Seeley (46:32): "He's a decent 230 touch guy. Like I don't think he's going to be a bell guy."

Ryan Heath compares Walker to other Tier 3 RBs, indicating comfort with his current ranking but cautious optimism about his potential.

Ryan Heath (46:15): "I'm comfortable honestly with where all four of those guys are ranked."

3. Javante Williams

Seeley considers Javante Williams a gamble due to his decline post-injury, yet sees value potential if he regains form.

Jake Seeley (36:45): "If Javante Williams is 90% of what he used to be and he gets 250, 240 touches in this backfield, he's not going to be a league winner, but it'll be somebody that you can slide into your RB two spots more, more often than not."

Ryan Heath remains skeptical, comparing Williams unfavorably to Miles Sanders and preferring higher-ranked options.

Ryan Heath (40:36): "He really is just somebody that you can slide into your RB two spots more... I just can't be it on Javante."

Conclusions and Final Thoughts

The panel concludes by reaffirming the importance of strategic drafting, emphasizing the need to avoid overvalued players and cautiously consider high-risk options that could pay off if conditions improve. The experts advocate for a balanced approach, leveraging their insights to navigate the complexities of fantasy football drafting.

Jake Seeley (48:36): "We are just risking some high-upside players in a crowded backfield environment."

Ryan Heath (35:36): "I think it's worth mentioning that there is a difference between how you rank a guy sometimes and how you kind of philosophically approach your draft day strategy."

Key Takeaways

• Avoid Overvalued Early RBs: Ashton Gentry and Josh Jacobs are prime candidates to be overvalued in early rounds due to potential offensive limitations and changing team dynamics.

• Caution with Mid-Round RBs: Players like Joe Mixon, James Cook, and DeAndre Swift may not deliver consistent performance, making them risky picks in mid-rounds.

• Consider High-Risk, High-Reward RBs: Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker offer potential upside if they can overcome injury concerns and establish themselves as key offensive contributors.

• Strategic Drafting: Balancing player rankings with draft strategies is crucial to building a competitive fantasy football team.

Notable Quotes

• Jake Seeley (03:08): "It's not that I hate him, I just hate where he's going."

• Ryan Heath (04:51): "I just don't see the touchdown upside."

• Jake Seeley (09:33): "It’s risky to say everything’s just going to be the same that we’ve seen for the past three years."

• Ryan Heath (14:20): "Cook is a favorite me right now."

• Jake Seeley (36:45): "I will take Alvin Camara as the top 15 running back."

• Ryan Heath (42:01): "That's all it takes is it sounds so easy."

Final Remarks

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis for fantasy football enthusiasts, offering expert opinions on which running backs to steer clear of in the 2025 drafts. By highlighting both overvalued and risky players, Ryan, Jake Seeley, and Ryan Heath equip listeners with valuable insights to refine their draft strategies and enhance their chances of success in the upcoming season.

For more detailed rankings and custom draft tools, listeners are encouraged to visit FantasyPros.com and utilize their Cheat Sheet Creator and Draft Intel features.

Note: This summary excludes advertisements, intros, outros, and non-content segments to focus solely on the main discussion topics.