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The Herd with Colin Cowherd
FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 10 (Ep. 1829)
01:07:18
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- [00:00]
Ryan Wormley
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
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- [00:35]
Ryan Wormley
Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined as I am every Friday by Derek Brown and Pat Fitzmaurice. We are talking our week 10 key questions. I've been saying it all week. We are into the double digits and we are trying to answer some key questions before this week to help everybody really make a playoff push. You got like, you know, 4ish weeks, 5ish weeks, depending on the league you're in, before you gotta lock up that playoff spot. So we're gonna do our best that we can to help you all this week and every week. Quick reminder, all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com/rest Rankings. Also a reminder for everybody, we've been talking about it all week. The teams on by, the Bengals, the Cowboys, the Chiefs and the Titans. Lots of good players, lots of bad defenses that we like going against. So going to make for a slightly tougher week than usual. Even with just in air quotes, four teams on by. It's still a lot, but not quite six. Still a lot of good teams there. Again, that's Cincinnati, Dallas, Kansas City and Tennessee. Fitz, let's start off right at the very top. Ed, we have another, I was gonna say London game. It's a Europe game. It's in Germany in Berlin this week. Falcons, Colts, I thought, you know, not. I thought, I hoped we were done with these super early games. We've got one more on the slate this season. Couple good teams, though. At least a couple interesting teams for Fantasy. I want to talk about the two best players on these teams, though. Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson. We had a question about them last week or two weeks ago rather, and we are sitting here with them coming off of a couple of bad games again. Now, Bijan made up for it a bit in the passing game, but they rushed for 45 and 46 yards respectively in week nine. So Fitz, starting with you, between Taylor and Robinson two of the three best running backs in fantasy. Who has a better chance of bouncing back this week?
- [02:22]
Derek Brown
I think it's Taylor for three reasons. One, the Colts are favored by six and a half points on Hard Rock bets. So Taylor and the Colts are more likely to have a run friendly game script. Two, Taylor is the better matchup. Falcons are giving up 100.5 rushing yards per game to running backs. The Colts are only giving up 70.1 rushing yards per game to running backs. Three, Taylor gets greater rushing volume than Bijan. He's averaging 17.4 carries a game. Bijan is only at 14.8 carries a game, mostly because the Falcons have a second back. They like. Tyler Algier has 63 carries this year. Colts running backs other than Jonathan Taylor collectively have 31 carries.
- [03:02]
Ryan Wormley
D Ro, what do you think? Because you know, Taylor might have more of the rushing equity, of course, but Bijan is getting the work in the passing game to kind of close that gap a bit. Who do you think bounces back this week more?
- [03:11]
Pat Fitzmaurice
So yeah, I'm going to, I'm going to agree with Fitzy and just more on the matchup. I mean the Atlanta Falcons run defense since week five, I mean outside of rushing yards, they had the seventh lowest stuff rate and they're allowing the 11th highest yards up to contact per attempt. Like if you juxtapose that with the Colts rushing defense and the same stats, they have the eighth highest stuff rate and they've allowed the ninth lowest yards of the contact per attempt. So yeah, I think this is easily J.T.
- [03:36]
Ryan Wormley
Okay, I, I didn't have a lot in this game just because a lot of the guys, especially on Atlanta are, you know, very easy start sit decisions for the most part. The Colts to, to some degree. The one guy that I do want to follow up on, I didn't put this in the sheet, but I know you'll be prepared to talk about this D RO because you've been talking about it all Alec Pierce and it's, it's something that has become real, real conversation the last few weeks on, you know, the type of defense that he's playing and this is a particularly good matchup for him. So do you just want to, you know, kind of wrap up this game by talking a bit about Pierce?
- [04:05]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, man, I mean, look, I, I've been talking about it for the last few weeks. It's Alec Pierce feeding families versus single high coverage and he's going to do it again this week, man. Like Atlanta runs top three route rate of single high and Alec Pierce has put up elite wide receiver one numbers. And I want to be very specific when I talk about this. He has put up elite per route wide receiver one numbers against single high coverage. Like, this guy versus single high has a 27 target share, 3.69 yards per route run and a 32% first reach here. Those are Jamar Chase level numbers on a per route basis versus single high. Just to fully, like, lay out the context for people here.
- [04:50]
Derek Brown
Pierce has just generally been really good this year. He's averaging like over 70 yards a game and he is averaging, I think over his last three games, over 90 yards a game.
- [05:00]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yep.
- [05:01]
Derek Brown
So he's just like, yes, single high. Expect him to smash. But in other matchups too, like, I think Alec Pierce is starting to build more of a floor than we're used to.
- [05:12]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Fitzy, I got a real quick question here. Because he has finished as a top 24 wide receiver in two of the last three games. He's a guy I'm struggling with. Like, where do you rank him this week? Like, how high is too high for Alec Pierce? Because with all the teams on by a lot of really, really good. Like, we're thin at wide receiver this week and I'm like, I keep nudging him up the ranks, man. And I'm like, is it like Alec Pierce versus Ted Roman is a real conversation? Like, is it too high to push him up that high in the top 24?
- [05:42]
Derek Brown
I've got him. Wide receiver 28.
- [05:43]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Okay, I'm at 27. I'm with you.
- [05:46]
Derek Brown
So, hey, the guys ahead of him, you could make a case that he, like, right now, I've got him right behind Quentin Johnston and Jordan Addison. I wouldn't have an issue with moving either of those guys past or behind Pierce.
- [06:01]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Like, I mean, Alec Pierce vs. DK Metcalf is a real conversation too. People may not be ready to have that, but for this week, it is.
- [06:09]
Ryan Wormley
Just to provide some context, he's not ranked in that range in consensus. He's in the mid-30s. He's at wide receiver 34. That is, these have a couple of the guys that played on Thursday night in there. So really it's more like March 32 of the guys remaining, but he's not up in that conversation with guys like Ted McMillan and DK Metcalf. In terms of how the consensus has it ranked, that's in half PPR scoring. So you guys are definitely ahead of consensus on that. And by the way, I very intentionally did not ask you anything about the game last Night. I could not have left.
- [06:42]
Derek Brown
Oh, my God. Oh, my. I had to. I had to hold my eyeballs in my sockets because they wanted to jump out of my skull and leave the room.
- [06:50]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, man. It was just a nasty game. And I think this more goes back to the volatility of. I. I said this a few weeks ago. Bo Nix has regressed so much from his rookie season. Like, it is. He's not only just matchup sensitive, like, it. The volatility. And I. And I said this out on social media a few weeks ago, and then he goes out and has like a. Like goes ham in a fourth quarter, and people are like, oh, really? Oh, you think that? And I'm like, yeah, I think that. Like, fine.
- [07:14]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
Like the amazing quarter. And it's like, have you looked at the rest of his season? Like, he's been a roller coaster, man.
- [07:21]
Ryan Wormley
It made me think of. And I actually tweeted this before to the fantasy pros account, like, years ago, and people got mad that it was an inappropriate meme, so I didn't do it again. But it made me think of the. The meme with Jeffrey Dahmer where he's like, we're gonna hang out, and he's, like, pointed the tv. We're gonna watch this, and then you can leave. And I'm like, I feel like I'm being forced to watch this game when I don't want to, against my will. It just was like. I mean. I mean, it's. It's one of those games. It's. It's like Colts, Broncos from a couple years ago where it's like, you will remember this game for how bad it was.
- [07:49]
Derek Brown
I.
- [07:50]
Pat Fitzmaurice
So I've started a tradition, trying to just keep myself sane, healthy, and energetic. And a lot of Thursday nights, like, part of the game, I'm going to the gym. There's a lot of Thursday nights where I'm like, man, I really don't want to go. I want to watch the game. Didn't feel like that last night.
- [08:05]
Ryan Wormley
Didn't.
- [08:06]
Derek Brown
Didn't.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
Didn't feel like that at all. Didn't feel like I missed anything.
- [08:09]
Ryan Wormley
Well, let's go to a game that has the chance to be pretty ugly. Also, Saints at Panthers. Teo McMillan has been under 50 yards receiving in three of his last four weeks, and he still has only scored a touchdown in one game this season. He, of course, has two. They both came in the same game. So every other game he has zero ECR still has him just outside the top 20among receivers for the week. Though he's currently at wide receiver 21. And I guess again, if you take out, you know, Sutton, who was already played and was ahead of him, then he'd be wide receiver 20 of the guys remaining. So we all love the player, but at what point is he no longer a borderline must start fantasy wide receiver? Because I feel like we kind of got him to that point relatively early in the year, assuming the touchdowns were going to come and that the volume was going to stay what it was. And now the yardage hasn't really been there and the touchdowns haven't come either. So again, we still love the player, but deeper. I'll start with you. At what point is he no longer a borderline must start fantasy wide receiver?
- [09:01]
Pat Fitzmaurice
We're already there, man. I mean, I've got him right now as wide receiver 27, and he's been wide receiver 35 in fantasy points per game. And Tet is doing everything that he can in his power. Given the constraints of the quarterback play and the passing volume that is being allotted to him, there's nothing else he can do about it. But this Carolina Panthers offense is just strangling the life out of him. I mean, whether it's a volume conversation, whether it's crappy quarterback play, whether it's a combination, and honestly, both weekly, it's tough for Tet. And that's why I wrote it up in the primer. Like, you're looking for blurbs on Leggette and Coker, you ain't gonna find them because they're not playable. Man, Carolina has been so stinking run heavy that the passing volume, like Ted, is the only option in the passing game that's even remotely playable. Like, since week six, Carolina's had the second highest neutral rushing rate and overall rushing rate. So pick your poison here. Whether you want to talk about bad quarterback play, what do you want to talk about? No passing volume and that. I mean, you got to run routes, you got to get targets to score fantasy points. And Ted's not able to do either one of those things. Unfortunately.
- [10:11]
Ryan Wormley
He's only finished higher than wide receiver 27 in a week. Twice. Fitz that those were two of the last four games. But even then, the, the ceiling has been wide receiver 12 and 14. Like it hasn't been inside the top 10 or anything. Again, I know you like the player, but what do you, what do you do with him both this week and just kind of your general thoughts on. On Tet moving forward?
- [10:32]
Derek Brown
Well, generally the, the whole must start thing depends on league context. In a 14 or 16 team league or in a 12 team league where you start three receivers and two flexes, Tedro McMillan is most likely a must start. But in a 10 team league or a 12 team league where you only have to start two receivers, probably not. And the issue is really that Panthers head coach Dave Canelis is trying to hide his quarterback right now and with good reason. Bryce Young is averaging 5.7 yards per pass attempt, which is just like, that's a terrible number. Cam ward is at 6.0 yards per pass attempt. And I don't think anyone is saying Cam Ward is having a good rookie year. So in his last four starts, Bryce Young has averaged 25 pass attempts. That is not a lot. And guess what? The Panthers have won all four of those games. Like they just beat the packers in Green Bay and Bryce Young had 102 yards and 11 completions. Dave Canelis is just leaning into the running game and Rico Dowdle has been a force of nature. And now Chuba Hubbard gives the Panthers, you know, one of the best number two running backs in the league. So Panthers are dead last in the league in pass rate over expected at minus 7.6%. They're ultra run heavy. I thought Ted Tedro McMillan played a really good game against the packers last week. Like Bryce Young threw to him in some third and long situations. And McMillan made a couple of really tough catches in tight coverage to pick up first downs. But it wasn't a good game for fantasy. Four catches for 46 yards and yet that was nearly half of Carolina's receiving yardage. So in a better situation we might be ranking Tetaroa. McMillan is like a low end wide receiver one, high end wide receiver two. I've got him ranked wide receiver 22 this week in a good matchup with four teams on by to all this point.
- [12:22]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I want to wrap a bow on this worm. Go out and trade for him in Dynasty. Go ahead and get him because the better days are ahead. Dude, better days. They're gonna. I don't see a way where Carolina walks into 2026 with Bryce Young as a quarterback. Can't see it.
- [12:35]
Ryan Wormley
It's funny that you say that because I was gonna follow up and ask. Not in Dynasty, but I was gonna say, do you, would you want to trade him away in redraft right now? I mean, he still has a bye week coming up, so that's going to be a zero you're going to take later week 17 if you make it to the championship. He has, he has the Seahawks, who are I think are the best defense in football. Like, it's not like it's an easy schedule going forward and we have all these question marks for this year. So trade for him in Dynasty, Debra. But would you trade him away and redraft?
- [13:00]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think it just comes down to what are you going to get for him. And I don't know if anybody's giving you more than a bag of peanuts for Ted Romeo and it's not down. The case like, like Fitzy and I have laid out here has nothing to do with his talent. His per route metrics are freaking fantastic. He's doing everything he can, but the fact that there's just not enough volume in this passing attack and the quarterback play has sucked. So I, I don't think you're going to get a ton for him. Now. If you were going to trade him away and lump him with another wide receiver or running back and tear up the position, then yeah, if you could do that, sure, go at it.
- [13:30]
Ryan Wormley
You might not get a ton. I think you get more than a bag of peanuts, though. I mean he's still rest of season rankings wide receiver, 23 names like T. Higgins, D.K. metcalf, Devonte Smith, Marvin Harrison Jr. Like I, I, you can quibble whether or not that's a worth worthwhile ranking, but I think people look at that and say like they would give up something even if it's not like a ton of value fits.
- [13:50]
Derek Brown
Yeah. I'm trying to think of what maybe commensurate running back value would be for him. And I can't imagine it's much more than like a Jordan Mason.
- [13:59]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah.
- [14:00]
Derek Brown
Who's now part of a committee or Woody Marks type. Maybe a little better than that. But like you're not even getting Jalen Warren for Ted Aroma McMillan. You're not getting.
- [14:12]
Pat Fitzmaurice
You couldn't even get, not to jump ahead of the next one. But like I don't even think you could get. Could you get Kyle Manangai right now for Tedro McMillan? I don't, I don't even know if you can do that.
- [14:22]
Ryan Wormley
I actually consider coming off because I think there are people who are just gonna say, oh well, once Swift is back, he's gonna go back into a timeshare and not be very startable. I, I, again, I'm not saying that's correct or not, but I think there are people out there who would have that mindset.
- [14:33]
Derek Brown
Probably, maybe.
- [14:35]
Ryan Wormley
Well, let's, let's get into that next game. It's Giants at Bears. We're not talking about Manungai specifically, although he was, it was funny. I, I filled in on the start sit live stream yesterday with Erickson and I can't tell you how many Manungai questions we got. It was like literally every question had Manungai included in it. And I kept saying like, I mean if Swift wasn't playing, he'd be the most obvious start ever. Gets a little trickier with that. But the question I want to, you know, talk about here is actually about Caleb Williams. This stat comes from somebody named Direct Barao. I'm not sure if I'm pronouncing that correctly. I don't know where he works. He, he's at D ro, underscore ffb, whoever that is on on Twitter, slash X. But this, this stat that I saw, which I we've kind of talked about a bit on the show before, but it's kind of fun to see put into, you know, a simple term. There have been eight games for Caleb Williams this season. Four times he's been QB10 or better. Four times he's been QB20 or worse. He has not finished in the teens this season. He has either had a great QB one week or he has been totally unplayable barring like it's super deep, you know, super flex league. So having said that, which version DBRO of Caleb are we going to get against the Giants this week?
- [15:46]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think you're going to get the top 10 version and the best I can contextualize the season that we're getting from Caleb Williams right now, he's 2024 Kyler Murray. He's Kyler Murray last year. You don't know when to start him. He's either going to smash or you're going to hate the fact that you started him because of the volatility because he has either been a basement level QB2 or he has helped win you weeks and a lot of this. There's a little more stickiness with Caleb I will say this year because of the matchups and he's been so matchup sensitive because he's just not an accurate passer. Like amongst 41 qualifying quarterbacks right now he's 28th in accurate throw rate, 30th and catchable target rate. The Giants past defense been struggling man, like since week five they're giving up the 12th most passing arts per game and the six highest passer rating. So I think you get good Caleb this week.
- [16:39]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, do you agree, like if I put it to you as like a binary thing like yes, Caleb, no Caleb, this Week?
- [16:45]
Derek Brown
Is it a yes week if it's a binary thing? I am on the good Caleb side just barely. Can it. Can I make both cases?
- [16:52]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh please do. Please do. Fitzy.
- [16:54]
Derek Brown
Okay, so the case for top 10 Caleb is that the Giants are giving up the seventh most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, giving up the fifth most rushing yards to quarterbacks. And Caleb likes to run and the Bears offensive line has been just fantastic lately. So I think that's the case for oh, and Paulson Adibo, one of the Giants cornerbacks. I think he's going to be out again this week. So the case against or maybe the case for Caleb even being outside the top 21 Debro said it with like the inaccuracy of Caleb's passing lately.
- [17:29]
Ryan Wormley
2.
- [17:29]
Derek Brown
The Bears offensive line has just been so good in the running game lately. Their last four games the Bears have averaged more than 180 rushing yards per game. So maybe they just keep it on the ground against a Giants defense that's giving up 5.9 yards per carry to running backs. That's not good. And lastly, the weather forecast for Giants Bears isn't looking all that great. Like I hate overreacting to weather but going to be highs in the 30s with brisk northwest winds of like 16 mph or more. So starting to get close to that threshold where you look at the wind as a factor and maybe it was a little bit in Raiders Broncos which I didn't see coming. So I this could kind of go either way.
- [18:13]
Ryan Wormley
I think prior to the game against the Bengals, which obviously was an insane game. His previous four games he combined for two passing touchdowns across four games. That's like just not and he had one rushing touchdown mixed in there too to help one of those days, but just not tenable from a fantasy quarterback perspective. And but then he comes around and it's QB1 was against the Bengals. But you know you kind of laid out the the case defense. He's QB13 in ECR this week, which we know he's not going to finish there based on this stat. But slight lean towards him going higher from you guys. I do want to ask kind of a second question again on the Bears. Was week nine the breakout for Colson, Loveland Fitz, or was it just a flash in the pan? Where is he ranked for you amongst tight ends this week?
- [19:01]
Derek Brown
So right now I have got him at tight end nine even though I might move him down a couple of spots if Cole Comet clears concussion protocol, which looks like a possibility. But if if last week wasn't a breakout for Colston Loveland, then maybe it was at least the start of a breakout. We obviously have to consider that he did it against the Bengals and the Bengals just get wrecked by tight ends on a weekly basis. But Loveland is starting to play more snaps even with Cole Comet around and Loveland has had at least three catches in three straight games. So yeah, I mean I don't think he is totally inside the tight end circle of trust yet, but he is maybe inching his way closer to that.
- [19:42]
Ryan Wormley
By the way, I want to quickly correct something that I said. I said Caleb Williams was QB13 this week. I was still looking at the rest of season rankings from a previous conversation. He's actually QB9 this week the rankings. So the consensus has him with another top 10 week. I just want to make sure that I corrected myself there DBRO on Colson Loveland. When you look at some something like this where it's like oh hey what a fun game, you know, top 10 pick has the pedigree. We're we're hoping to see this happen. At the same time you could say like well he had a 50 yard touchdown that was kind of fluky, broke off three tacklers that like makes the day look a lot better than it really was. He is tight end 10 for the week. That is for this week's rankings and half PPR. Does that sound too high, too low or just right for you?
- [20:20]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It's too high because I think Cole Comet like to Fitz his point, I think he does clear and I think he does play and that the breakout for Loveland happened. And I want to be very clear about this like over the last two games for the Bears like Cole Comet had a concussion and a back injury. So you look at week six and that's the last game that we have where both of these guys were absolutely healthy. And during that game Colston loveland at a 39% route share. Cole Comet was at 30% like they were splitting the routes up. So I if Colst if Cole Comet is active it's going to impact Colston Loveland's route share. Ben Johnson has been so stubborn about integrating these rookies at a high level. Like Luther Burton, even when he's been healthy has not overtaken a lot of Zacchaeus and people keep we keep waiting for that to happen and it's not happening and they're winning games so I don't think that changes. And the same thing with Colson Loveland, like he had a wonderful game versus the Bengals, but you talked about the flukiness, the fact that Cole commit got knocked out of the game very early. And then also we can also point to the matchup this week is not it's not horrible, but it's not like a smash matchup for tight ends. Like I mean The Giants are 14 fewest receiving yards per game overall, 16th and schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends of the last five games. So it's okay and he can succeed, but it's not like he's playing the Bengals and you're like all right, gotta fire him up, let's go. So I kind of lean more to the negative side only because of the other factors at play here.
- [21:53]
Ryan Wormley
Just quickly give me your answer. Don't need to elaborate. Kyle Pitts or Colson Loveland this week?
- [21:58]
Pat Fitzmaurice
D bro Pitts not even close. Like not not even close.
- [22:01]
Ryan Wormley
They're close in ECR fits. Do you also see it as fits.
- [22:04]
Derek Brown
If if Komet plays, it's going to be pits for me too.
- [22:07]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Kyle Pitts is a top 10 tight end for me this week. Easy top 10.
- [22:11]
Ryan Wormley
Okay, yeah, they're both inside top 10 in ECR, but in very close in the back end of ECR. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. If you're listening to this podcast, you're probably deep in the stats, injury reports and matchups on Hard Rock Bet. You can put your fantasy football knowledge to the test. Try your first bet on Hard Rock Bet today. Just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. And if you're looking for an edge before you lock in, check out the Hard Rock Bet Stats hub. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie and neither does the data in there. Check out the Stats Hub now. Get the edge and bet with confidence. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida. It's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. Coming soon to more states too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet apple and make your.
- [23:05]
Pat Fitzmaurice
First payable bonus bets.
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- [23:57]
Pat Fitzmaurice
The level.
- [24:01]
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- [25:03]
Pat Fitzmaurice
See paypal.com promoterms Subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com payinfor PayPal Inc. NMLS 910457 Next game here guys.
- [25:15]
Ryan Wormley
Jaguars at Texans no Travis hunter, Brian Thomas Jr. Banged up now Jacoby Myers in town. We'll see what that looks like week one. He's been kind of the name we've talked about from this game all week. Fitz how startable is Parker Washington against the tough Houston defense this week?
- [25:30]
Derek Brown
I don't really want to start any of the Jaguars receivers and it is tough to guess at the target distribution between Parker Washington, the newly acquired Jacoby Myers and Diami Brown is coming back from a concussion. Plus you said it Worm, that the Texans have a Tough pass defense. Like I've got Parker Washington ranked wide receiver 41 and even that feels too high. And just one thing about props to hard rock bets. They were the only sports book I found that had a prop on Jacoby Myers receiving yardage in his first game with the Jaguars, which was at 40. 41 and a half I want to say. And I, I promptly bet the under on that.
- [26:12]
Ryan Wormley
I'll ask you this question first Fitz, and I'm going to ask you the same question dbro, because they're very close in the flex rankings for this week. In this game would you rather start Woody Marks or Parker was Marks.
- [26:21]
Derek Brown
Oh, Woody Marks.
- [26:22]
Zyn Nicotine Pouches Advertiser / PayPal Advertiser
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- [26:23]
Ryan Wormley
Okay. They're only a couple spots apart in. In the flex rankings in consensus again, that's half PPR scoring. Dbro, you said you agree on Marks.
- [26:31]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yep. Easy Marks. And I've got Washington and wide receiver 37 and, and that feels too high right now. I'm probably gonna bump him down some like it's just.
- [26:40]
Ryan Wormley
It's exactly what consensus is. Is wide receiver 30. Oh, is it?
- [26:42]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Okay, the thing about it and, and I haven't. I gotta dive back him into him for the primer updates because figuring out who's going to play and who's trying to figure out what his role is because he's flip flopped between being a perimeter wide receiver and a slot wide receiver depending on the matchup and depending on like who's been healthy the last few weeks. But regardless of however you slice this matchup, it's not good for Parker Washington like Houston overall has given up the second fewest schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers overall. You splice that into perimeter wide receivers. Second fewest again, ninth view is to slot receivers. So anyway, whether they run, they move him outside or they stick him inside, it's not going to be a good week for Parker Washington. You're really just playing volume for him as a flex play. That's it.
- [27:29]
Ryan Wormley
Just because there was kind of quick conversation on Washington rest of season. Jacoby Myers, where does he fit in for you guys? Now that we've had a few days to kind of ruminate on the trade and think about it and really sit with it, where does he kind of fall into your expectations? I mean Obviously, Brian Thomas Jr. And Travis Hunter will be back at some point and you know, healthier at some point. Myers is a good player rest of season. When I ask you that question, Debra, what's the first kind of number that comes to mind?
- [27:52]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I was just pulling it up. Wide receiver 49 like, I think he's like 49, fringe, like wide receiver four or five territory. Like he's living somewhere in the Josh down. Like I've actually got all these Jaguars guys like coupled together in the low hot like low 40s, high 50s like Myers, Washington and Travis Hunter because we don't know what his health outlook because you could take that trade and say, okay, does this mean we get Travis Hunter back and they're just trying to add to the cupboard or is this more gloom and doom and do we see Travis Hunter for the rest of the season? So somewhere in that low wide receiver 4, high wide receiver 5 territory and people might think that's too low, but I mean, tell me why not?
- [28:34]
Ryan Wormley
Same range for you, Fitz.
- [28:35]
Derek Brown
I've got him wide receiver 50. He's right behind your guy or right ahead of your guy. Rashad Bateman, worm. It's just like eventually Travis Hunter comes back. BTJ is there. Myers is this third piece in a not great passing attack. So like I, I think he's a bench player.
- [28:55]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yep.
- [28:56]
Ryan Wormley
Let's go to Bills at Dolphins. Which players ranking in this game do you guys most disagree with Fitz? We start with you.
- [29:05]
Derek Brown
I'm a little below consensus on James Cook. I mean, and this is splitting hairs because you're starting him, obviously. I've got him ranked running back six and consensus is running back four. I like Jameer Gibbs and Devon Achan a little more this week, and I know running backs have been carving up the Miami defense this year, but Cook has this ankle issue that caused him to miss practice on Wednesday and send people into a panic and be speculating about Ray Davis or Ty Johnson being the preferred backup. But maybe with the ankle thing, the bolt, Bill's pullback on Cook's workload a little bit and Cook only has two targets and one catch in his last four games. He isn't adding anything as a receiver lately, so obviously the, the rushing numbers have been sensational, but that's where he is doing all his business.
- [29:52]
Ryan Wormley
This could prove to be, you know, poor analysis by me. I, I'm not really worried about the foot ankle stuff just because like it from. It's what it seems like from I was seeing some of these videos on Twitter like that this happened earlier in last week's game and he still rushed for 27 like attempts in that game. So they didn't seem to be dialing it back in the moment. Now maybe like, you know, you have the, the adrenaline going and it starts to feel worse later in the week, but you know, I, I, I'm not that worried about it. And even if he does have a limited workload, like how many rushes do you need against this Miami run defense to have a great day? If you're James Cook, I don't think that many. So obviously you still have inside your top six. You're not fading James Cook, but just compared to some of these other elite options that you might have dbro, what do you think? Who's the player that you are either fading or more aggressive on ranking highly in this game?
- [30:39]
Pat Fitzmaurice
So since week two, I'm going to give you the weekly finishes for this wide receiver 76, 69, 50, 43, 76, 57 and 67. Why in the ever loving heck are we ranking Keon Coleman as a wide receiver 43 in ECR? Tell me that. Why is he inside the top 50? Why is he on any roster? Why is he not droppable?
- [31:00]
Derek Brown
Like why you, you said since week two? Well, what was week one?
- [31:05]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, we week one. Week one was wide receiver two. Can we spot the outlier family? Can we like. Nah, man, I just, I can't. Keon Coleman's not playable. Even if we wanted to craft a positive narrative, the Miami's secondary versus perimeter wide receivers has actually been improving over the last few weeks. And they didn't trade. I thought Rasul Douglas is gone. They didn't trade. And then you look at the coverage shell. It's horrible for Keon Coleman, man. Like, Miami has the fourth highest rate of too high versus too high Keon Coleman, 14% target per route run rate, 0.82 yards per route run. It's not good. Like, I don't, I just don't understand like why Keon Coleman's even on fantasy rosters at this point. Like, have we not seen enough?
- [31:49]
Ryan Wormley
I, it's funny because I knew when you were reading the numbers that those it wasn't Khalil Shakir's game log because I know he's been better than what you were saying. But I almost, when you said that you were going to have a receiver that you were going to discuss here, I almost thought it might have been Shakir because he has not been, you know, that productive for fantasy managers either this year. Like three of the last four weeks he's been wide receiver 53, 49 and 52, excluding his bye week that he had in there. You know, he had one game where he was wide receiver six this season. But even that game, it was just a down week in Week 8 for the position because he was wide receiver six with 14.8 fantasy points. That's not that, like, explosive. Huge of a day. He does not have 100 yards receiving in a game this season. He's only top 70 yards receiving in a game once this season, just three touchdowns. And this is with the Bills not having a very strong receiving core. So, like, I look at Shakir, ranked wide receiver 31, and I, like, again, I knew you. You weren't talking about him when you started reading the game logs, D. RO But I almost wondered if he was going to come up because I'm just like, I. I don't really want to be starting Shakir all that badly this weekend.
- [32:49]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean, the ceiling's not high with Shakir. I will say, like, he's. He's a stable wide receiver three. Like, against the same secondary. In week three, he was wide receiver 25, so I know he's living off of touchdowns. The volume's not amazing. If you're playing Shakir, you got to know what you're getting yourself into. It's probably 40 to 50 yards, and you're praying he gets a touchdown. If he gets the touchdown, he's in Wide Receiver 3 territory. If he doesn't get the touchdown, then you're probably like, oh, good Lord, why'd I do this?
- [33:16]
Derek Brown
It's crazy that Josh Allen is a leading MVP candidate. The Bills are one of the best, strongest super bowl contenders in the afc, and there is no pass catcher you want to use in this offense. Like maybe Dalton, Kincaid, even Cade. Yeah, even Kincaid isn't getting, like, heavy target volume.
- [33:34]
Pat Fitzmaurice
No, he's not.
- [33:34]
Derek Brown
It's just that they have this terrible. Well, at least terrible for fantasy. Everybody eats ethos in Buffalo. So we're seeing all these targets squandered on guys like Jackson Hawes and Dawson Knox, Elijah Moore, Curtis Samuel, Tyrell Shavers. Yeah, it's just kind of not desirable for all the pass catchers. You just want Josh Allen. That's it.
- [33:57]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Now, if it's the. I'll add on top of that, like, I. I think it has been terrible, man. Like, that passing attack is. Is honestly kind of limited. Like when teams can just sitting too high and then play downhill on him.
- [34:09]
Derek Brown
I know.
- [34:09]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Where's the verticality? They have no field stretchers in this offense. None.
- [34:13]
Derek Brown
It. It does look like a Cliff Kingsberry offense.
- [34:16]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah. Horizontal raid in Buffalo, baby.
- [34:20]
Ryan Wormley
It's funny. Like, I feel. I don't feel like Josh Allen should be Lee, like, the leading mvp, you know, odds, But I don't know who else I would make the case for instead like the Chiefs have lost too many games even though it's been great. Lamar's missed time, bro. Obviously out for most of the year. Like Drake May. Is it a year too early yet? Is this gonna be more of like a next year thing? I'm like, I don't and you know, it's not going to be a non quarterback despite the people who like, you know, enjoy to talk about like Jonathan Taylor.
- [34:45]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I got your MVP Canada right here, Worm. It's Matthew Stafford, baby. That's who it is.
- [34:50]
Ryan Wormley
Stafford has been on, on a lately.
- [34:53]
Pat Fitzmaurice
He's playing at an MVP level. They're gonna win the West. He's gonna win probably 12 games. He's playing some of the best statistical football of his career. It should be Matthew Stafford.
- [35:03]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, I like, I'm trying to pull up the odds right now and my computer is being slow so I can.
- [35:07]
Derek Brown
Where are the Patriots without May having the kind of season he is having them? No, that's fair.
- [35:12]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Like that's fair.
- [35:13]
Ryan Wormley
I mean I, I, I would give consideration to me. I just wonder if people are like, you know, he's 22, he's got plenty of time to win it in the future. But like Alan has just won it last year and like they typically don't like to go back to back if they can avoid it.
- [35:26]
Derek Brown
So that's kind of going dark horse.
- [35:29]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Sam Darnold is absolutely in this conversation. Yes, he should be in this conversation. Yeah.
- [35:34]
Ryan Wormley
If the Ravens had won like one or two more games without Lamar and at least had the record, then I wouldn't because Lamar stats are insane this year then if he like does lead them to the playoffs coming back, I can see it but I just think he missed too much time to, to overcome too much time. Numbers will be. So I, I don't think he's a real option and I just, Yeah, I, I mean May might not be a bad back and I can't get my computer to load it.
- [35:54]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It always comes down to as well like you got to have not only the wins and stuff like that. You got to have, you have to put up the numbers too because if you don't, you don't put up the numbers.
- [36:05]
Ryan Wormley
It just, Yeah, I, I just got to pull up actually now. So. Yeah, Allen plus 155 on Hard Rock bet Mahomes and May are both plus plus 400. Stafford plus 525 and then the next best is plus 1400 for Darnold. Like Baker Mayfield had a case early in the year that he's been following up Herbert, like, I think with just with the offensive line stuff is not going to get there. But I, I think he's been awesome this year.
- [36:26]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Darnold at 14 to 1. I'm gonna have to put that in today. I'm gonna do it.
- [36:30]
Ryan Wormley
I feel, I feel like Darnold, May and Stafford, like, are my favorite kind of range. They're. Darnold's a lot lower than them in the odds, but I, I feel like that's my kind of favorite range to be looking at right now. Yep. Agree though, so interesting. Yeah, we'll see where that goes. Let's go to speaking of Lamar, Ravens at Vikings. I have been saying this all week. I'm absolutely fascinated by this game. Lamar still shaking off the rust a bit going up against Minnesota's blitz and specifically Brian Flores blitz, which probably the worst game of Lamar's career in the regular season was that Thursday night game against the Dolphins a few years ago against Brian Flores where he looked awful. I cannot remember him ever looking that bad in any game of his entire career. So he's going up against that blitz in Minnesota again, still shaking off the rust to a degree. On the other side you have J.J. mcCarthy, who, you know is going up against an improving but definitely still limited defense for Baltimore. McCarthy is improving but still limited himself. There have been turnovers going on, which has been kind of the key to the Ravens turnaround on defense, has been forcing more turnovers. It's all just very fascinating for me to watch. I'm really, really intrigued by this. So I kind of just want to leave it a little more wide open for you guys and ask what the most interesting storyline in this game is for each of you and deeper. I'll start with you. I'm gonna guess I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say you want to talk about J.J. mcCarthy?
- [37:41]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, Worm. We're, we're sitting on the same limb, sir. Yes. Yeah, dude, I think it's jj, man. Like, I mean, looking at, you know, everybody wanted to bury him. Looking at the, the ups and downs of his play. Healthy, not healthy. All the soft benching BS that was making the rounds on social media because people are idiotic. I don't even understand that. It, it, it comes back to jj, man. A big time game and the Vikings have to keep winning if they want, you know, shot at the playoffs. I don't think they're probably gonna, you know, really realistically have a shot at the NFC north, but if they want to make the playoffs they gotta keep winning and JJ's gotta keep improving, man. And he's, he's been good or solid for fantasy and the two healthy starts, he's gonna QB 11 and QB 13. We've got Russian equity outta him. You've seen some of the passing highs and the lows, so a lot to improve here. And you talked about the, the Baltimore pass defense, they've shown some improvements but still since week five, 11th most passing yards per game, fourth highest success rate per drop back allowed. So that, that's just another fascinating stat line or storyline of this game. I want to see how JJ plays because I was, dude, I was quietly surprised like how, how well he navigated pressure, what he did versus the Lions. But also you saw some of the shortcomings of things he still has to clean up. Like he air mailed a few short throws or when he was on the move and stuff like that. So left a lot of yards on the field. So JJ is definitely the guy that, or at least the storyline that I want to talk about here.
- [39:10]
Ryan Wormley
You know, Fitz D. Row mentioned like the Vikings really need this game to kind of keep, you know, keep fighting for the playoffs. The Ravens really need this game to keep fighting for the playoffs. Like they lost for as little margin of error as they had. They lost even more of it when the Steelers upset the Colts and just get another win on their ledger. So it's a really, for, for two teams that are below.500, it's a really wildly important game.
- [39:31]
Derek Brown
It is. And yeah, and Debro McCarthy has to just stop like thwarting his own drives. He's just, he, he could have even better fantasy numbers and actually like maybe even be a worthwhile fantasy starter if like he's taken 14 sacks and three starts. Sacks are drive killers. He's thrown four interceptions. He's fumbled four times. Like there are a lot of mistakes. So I'm not, I'm not saying J.J. mcCarthy has played good. There have been some moments, but he has not played well in his three starts. So I'm more interested in where we are at with the Vikings defense and the matchup against Lamar. Like, I want to know how we should look at Minnesota as a fantasy matchup the rest of the way because coming into the season we generally thought of the Vikings as a tough defensive matchup. But the Vikings defense not playing so well as of late. Coming out of the bye, the Vikings got blasted by the Eagles and the Chargers. That was week seven and eight. Before the bye, they had made the Steelers and Browns offenses look Pretty good in weeks four and five. But last week the Vikings got Andrew Van Ginkel back from injury, and he hadn't played since week three. I am now convinced that Van Ginkel is just the linchpin of the Brian Flores defense. Like, the Vikings did a really nice job of holding down the powerful Lions offense in Detroit last week. Detroit had 305 yards of offense, well below their average. I want to see how tough the Vikings make things on Lamar.
- [40:57]
Ryan Wormley
I wonder. I feel like a lot of the conversation this week when talking about this game, specifically in terms of the Ravens offense against the Vikings defense, has been about Lamar, and I've been a part of that. I wonder if this might just be kind of like a. I don't want to say surprise, but like, if this just ends up being like a Derrick Henry, like, all the way back because he's had some explosive games lately. But it's felt more like against Miami, it felt more like he just wore him down late. Right. Which is what Derek Henry does. Didn't feel like he was just, like, dominating early. I wonder if this is a game where, like, Derek Henry just does kind of come out of nowhere and has his best fantasy day since week one with all the attention being on Lamar and obviously him opening things up for him. Maybe another week, you know, post injury, had this extended break with the Thursday night game. Maybe Lamar is more mobile, which then helps open stuff up even more for Derek Hen Henry. The Vikings. I feel like if you can get past the initial tackler like that, you can run on them like, you know, deep into the, to the second level. I, I just. I feel like this could be a Derek Henry game, like, when everybody's looking in a different direction. Dbro.
- [41:55]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, it's possible. And I think the, The. The. The part that I'll definitely hammer on there is Lamar's mobility. And another week back from the hamstring injury is going to be critical to that because if anybody watched, like, yes, Lamar, three for four passing touchdowns, he. That was fantastic. His passing acumen was definitely there. He didn't look like Lamar Jackson. If you watch that game. He looked tentative to run. He was not looking to run. He didn't look as spry in the pocket. You could tell he was not clearly not a hundred percent. So to your point, I'm. I'm very interested to see what version of Lamar Jackson do we get? Is the Hammy still not fully healthy and he's still a little bit tentative in the pocket? And then you got Brian Flores like, like teeing off on him on the blitz. And some of their run game concepts are more limited because of Lamar's hamstring or if he's healthier, we get more mobile Lamar, and that opens up things for Derek Henry. But I think Lamar's health is going to play a huge factor in this on multiple levels.
- [42:54]
Ryan Wormley
100%. The offensive line has not been good this year, and so you need the mobility from the quarterback. That's why Tyler Huntley was so much better than Cooper Rush is because he was more mobile and could you.
- [43:04]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Well, that's a low bar to clear, too.
- [43:05]
Ryan Wormley
You know, it was a low bar to clear, but like, having a statue back there with this offensive line is, is simply not tenable. Lamar is not a statue, obviously, but I thought Lamar was sl Even in September before getting hurt. Honestly. I remember during the Lions game, I texted one of my good friends who's a big Ravens fan. I was like, dude, does Lamar look slow to you? Like, I. What is going on here? So I, I feel like that's been a thing all year. And then obviously just kind of compounded with the, the hamstring injury. So again, I'm really fascinated by this game. What do you guys think? Ravens were minus four and a half last I looked. Maybe it moved to minus three and a half. What do you guys think about that?
- [43:37]
Derek Brown
I never bet against the Vikings in U.S. bank Stadium.
- [43:41]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I don't think the Ravens cover that. I think it's gonna be very, very close. I think it comes down to like, final possession either. I, I, this game's gonna come down to who has the ball last.
- [43:50]
Ryan Wormley
It's, it's, it's minus four now. Yeah, I don't think, I don't know if I would bet on the Vikings, but I don't want to bet on the Ravens.
- [43:55]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think the better. What's the total in this game, Worm? Is it still. Was it like 48?
- [43:59]
Ryan Wormley
You know, it was kind of high. I felt the last I looked. Let me pull that up because I.
- [44:04]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Think if you're gonna attack this from a betting angle, I think the total is much more of a 49. Yeah, I think the total is much more the playground than I'm willing to the sandbox.
- [44:13]
Ryan Wormley
I like the under a lot, honestly.
- [44:15]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I could see that.
- [44:16]
Ryan Wormley
I'm a big fan of the under. All right, fantasy pros, listeners. This is for you. Fantasy showdown combines fantasy football with stat enhancing gear. That's point one. Stat enhancing gear. You equip for your team. Point two, you can start playing now. Start anytime and keep rolling through the playoffs. Point three you get 100 free pieces of gear with the Fantasy Pros referral again. Stat enhancing gear start playing now at 100 free pieces. Use code Showdown FP and go to FantasyShowdown.com FP Create your team team, equip your gear and get started today again. That's FantasyShowdown.com FP all right guys, Browns at Jets. Oh boy, what a fun one. How high are you ranking? Quinn shot Judkins against a Jets defense that just traded away its best players. Dbro Oof.
- [45:06]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Does the number exist?
- [45:07]
Ryan Wormley
No.
- [45:08]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It's seriously like he's a low end RB1. I've got him in RB12 but I think the conversation start somewhere in the mid like the low RB1 range. Like I think the conversation you can have a really good conversation of him versus Rico Dowdle. So like it's probably like RB7, RB8 is where the conversation for Judkin starts. And I mean it's they just traded away their best run stuffer and before that with him on this defense since week five the jets were still giving up the fifth most rushing arts per game and they had the tenth lowest stuff rate. So you know the, the the rest of the season is going to be start all your fantasy options versus the Jets. They traded away their best corner. They traded away their best defensive lineman. Just fire up the options.
- [45:58]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, what do you think? I mean this is like it feels like the vibes could deteriorate. Could deteriorate. Excuse me.
- [46:05]
Derek Brown
Very quickly in New York, definitely. But I've got Judkins RB11. I don't think he's in the same tier as Dowdle. We certainly like the matchup for Judkins, but he's averaged three yards per carry over his last three games and he said minus two receiving yards over his last three games. His passing game usage is just completely dried up. So I like Judkins like the matchup. I just don't love the offensive ecosystem.
- [46:30]
Ryan Wormley
Was there anything else else on this game I missed? I mean like I just didn't have any players that I really wanted to talk about here. Honestly.
- [46:35]
Derek Brown
Nope.
- [46:36]
Pat Fitzmaurice
No.
- [46:37]
Zyn Nicotine Pouches Advertiser / PayPal Advertiser
Okay.
- [46:38]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think it's pretty much it man. Like you want to start a lot of your parts and pieces but good lord. Like both these offenses are just borderline decrepit. The only, the only thing I'll add edge wise here is I think this is quietly a good matchup for Breeze Hall. If you look at what the the Browns run defense has been versus the perception like the beginning of the season they were stopping everybody and anybody. But since week five they've given up the 11th most rushing or excuse me, the 11th most yards after contact per attempt and the third highest missed tackle rate. So I will say I will be above consensus on breeze this week.
- [47:13]
Ryan Wormley
Last game of the early slate Patriots at Buccaneers Looking lower down the rankings because some of these guys are very obvious starts. But looking further down, do you guys needed wide receiver help in week 10? Would you rather start Tez Johnson or Demario Douglas in this game?
- [47:28]
Derek Brown
Fits Taz before the Buccaneers went on by in Week 9, Tez was wide receiver 24 and half point PPR fantasy scoring over his previous four games. Need at least 43 receiving yards in all those games. So like a play. A pretty sturdy floor. No Mike Evans for the Buccaneers. It looks like Chris Godwin might not be back for a while. Look, I realized Demario Douglas had 100 yards last week and he's weirdly become this guy who occasionally pops off for big plays after sort of being the polar opposite of a big play receiver the last couple of years. Just this short area possession guy. But here's the thing. Douglas has played less than 30% of New England's offensive snapshot in seven of the Patriots nine games this season and in each of the last five, Pop Douglas hasn't played more than 17 snaps in a game since Week 3. That's just nothing to hang your hat on. It's possible the Patriots give Douglas more snaps this week with K Shaan Booty out, but Douglas is playing behind Stefan Diggs and Mack Hollins, and the Patriots have been talking about a bigger role for rookie Kyle Williams. And last week Williams out snapped Douglas 31 18. So the the prop on Douglas is set at 41 1/2 yards at hard rock bat and the under is one of my favorite bets of the week.
- [48:43]
Ryan Wormley
Okay, that's a compelling case. I like Douglas more than you, but that's a good case against him.
- [48:50]
Derek Brown
17 or fewer snaps man for five straight. That's just not enough to make him reliable in fantasy.
- [48:58]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, for anybody believing in Pop Douglas, Matt Collins says hold your beer. So you know I think he's going to get out snap Douglas. Douglas last week only had a 32% route share. These numbers for Douglas last week are just not sustainable. Like he had a 46% target per route run rate. He had a 31% first read share like Neither one of those numbers are at all replicable. And even if you wanted to just say okay, what if Pop is a full time player. Also since Week 5 Tampa Bay 4th fewest PPR points per target to the slot 11th fewest receiving yards per game allowed this is Tez for me on multiple levels. One, he's he's playing more snaps and two that the matchup is actually it's middle of the road but he's been good versus too high coverage which since week seven New England 59% of the defensive snaps have been too high and since Tez Johnson I know it's a small sample size here as a full time ish kind of player in in the Bucks passing attack but since week six Taz Johnson against too high 19 target per route run rate 2.0 yards per route run so this is Taz for me.
- [50:02]
Ryan Wormley
Okay, I, I guess I'm the odd man out on Douglas. I, I, I would still probably go Tez, but I see it as closer than you guys do so we'll see how it plays out.
- [50:09]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think Max MacLeod scorm this week, I'll say that.
- [50:11]
Ryan Wormley
Okay. All right. Yeah, that's interesting. I, I, I don't see it that way but I, when I disagree with you I tend to trust you. So we'll see how it goes. Cardinals at Seahawks this is into the late afternoon slate on Sunday with Jacoby Brissette the starter in Arizona moving forward. Where are you ranking Marvin Harrison Jr. Both in Week 10 which Seahawks defense but also rest of season with this quarterback change?
- [50:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Dbro wide receiver 29 this week and wide receiver 28 rest of season. It just he's still a wide receiver. 3 He's still going to be up and down like as good as he's been at at various times. He's still wide receiver 34 and fantasy points per game. He still only has earned an 18 target share. Tough matchup this week. So yeah, like I think he's you can make a case he's a low end wide receiver too on some weeks depending on the matchup. That is definitely not this week. Since week five, Seattle has allowed the 14th fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. So yeah, I mean I think Marv is definitely going to get a bump because Brissette is better than Kyler Murray and in the year 2025 I don't know if anybody would have walked into the year saying that that's the case, but Kyler's not played good over the last like two plus seasons.
- [51:24]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz he is Marvin Harrison Jr wide receiver 19 in half EPR ECR is that too high? Too lower?
- [51:31]
Derek Brown
Just right I mean I've got him wide receiver 20. Like I, I understand DBRO skepticism but like we're talking about a week with the the Bengals, Cowboys and Chiefs on by. That's like five or six really good receivers who are out of the mix. So if those guys were playing like I would have Harrison ranked as a high end wide receiver three and that's kind of where I have him rest of season wide receiver 26. So I know wide receiver 20. Like with Harrison having a tough matchup against Seattle might seem a little lofty, but it's basically with the buy teams.
- [52:02]
Ryan Wormley
He'S wide receiver 25 in rest of season consensus ranking. So right, right in line with you there, Debra. Where is he rest of season ranking for you?
- [52:10]
Pat Fitzmaurice
He is wide receiver 28. So yeah, I mean I still got.
- [52:14]
Ryan Wormley
Him in one receiver three territory for this week. Dbro Marvin Harrison Jr. Or Tetaroa McMillan? O I've got that two spots away in ECR.
- [52:23]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I've legit got them back to back and I think I'm probably gonna flip them. I would take Marvin Harrison Jr. Just.
- [52:28]
Ryan Wormley
Based off of volume and fit to sounded like you.
- [52:31]
Derek Brown
You would take Harrison two spots higher than 10.
- [52:35]
Ryan Wormley
All right, I want to let everybody know. Speaking of receivers, if you want a chance to win a Justin Jefferson signed Vikings jersey for free courtesy of our friends@pristine auction.com, all you need to do is head to fantasypros.com contest, complete the form and either download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on X Instagram or Tik tok at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. We will be announcing a winner on the podcast near the beginning of next month. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. All right, next game here, guys. Rams at 49ers. Fun game here. We talked about him earlier. DBRO Matthew Stafford has been on a heater. He is tied for QB8 on the season in points per game despite offering nothing as a runner. Give me a surprising name that you are starting Stafford over this week, so.
- [53:27]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I don't know if these are surprising. So I'm going to kind of like throw these at the wall here. I've got two or three names and you guys tell me what you think. Is Jackson dart over him surprising or not? I kind of feel like it's not, but I want to throw it out there. Daniel Jones is That surprising.
- [53:43]
Derek Brown
A little.
- [53:43]
Ryan Wormley
Jones and Stafford are back to back in ecr.
- [53:45]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Okay, so I. Daniel Jones. I just. The Atlanta secondary is falling off. I think this is a good get right spot. We've already talked about Alec Pierce and in single high coverage and all that kind of stuff. Michael Pittman's playing. Amazing. The third name I was going to evoke in here is I think you can make a pretty easy case for Jared Golf this week. I think the Lions come out and they are ticked off. This is one of those spots where they just run up the freaking score and drop like a 40 burger on the commanders. So golf is probably the surprising name, but I've got him and Stafford. I mean, like, right back to back in rankings.
- [54:22]
Ryan Wormley
So I just want to clarify for the listeners that I think you did took this question the reverse of what I intended it. I was asking who was somebody that you were starting Stafford over? That is surprising.
- [54:30]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, God.
- [54:30]
Ryan Wormley
We're starting over seven, so it's totally fine. But I just want to clarify for listeners that you're not saying to start Stafford over those guys. You're saying start those guys.
- [54:38]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Okay, so the flip side of that, I'll start Matthew Stafford over Caleb Williams, a player that we talked about earlier. I will easily start Matthew Stafford over him. I think the floor and the ceiling are definitively higher.
- [54:48]
Ryan Wormley
That's. That's reversed from ecr. So, yeah, that is a surprising one. Fitz, what do you think? Who would you start Stafford over? That might be a surprise to people.
- [54:55]
Derek Brown
I mean, I guess Kayla Williams, but I don't think. I don't think that should be a surprise. I. I don't know. Is Baker Mayfield a surprising name?
- [55:02]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Like, that's the other name I was thinking of.
- [55:05]
Ryan Wormley
Consensus.
- [55:06]
Derek Brown
Yeah, I've. I've. Stafford 8. And I just like. Yeah, I don't think that's surprisingly high. I feel like that's the right ranking for him. I. I do wish I had ranked Stafford ahead of Bo Nicks, who I had.
- [55:17]
Ryan Wormley
I was just. You could go back same. And remember, before you knew what happened in the game, would you have said Stafford over Knicks? And it sounds like you said you wouldn't have.
- [55:26]
Derek Brown
Unfortunately not.
- [55:27]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I debated those two. I debated those two in rankings all the way up to, like, like, kickoff, man. I was looking at him, and I'm like, is Bo gonna burn me? And he burned me.
- [55:37]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah. That's a tough one. All right. Yeah. So we. We. I mean, Stafford's been great all year. We like him this week. You know, fun times are gonna continue let's go to the last game in the late slate here. Lions at Commanders without Jaden Daniels, who, by the way, is not gonna get surgery, I guess, and could be back at some point this season. I don't know that that makes a whole lot of sense for the Commanders and what I expect their record to be by the time he's ready to come back. But, but we'll see. I'm certainly not there this week without Jane Daniels. If you had to be above consensus on one Washington commander this week, Fitz, who would it be?
- [56:10]
Derek Brown
I don't know. Chris Moore.
- [56:12]
Zyn Nicotine Pouches Advertiser / PayPal Advertiser
He'll play.
- [56:14]
Derek Brown
He'll play more snaps with Terry McLaurin outs Jalen Lane, more snaps for him. I think I'm ahead of consensus on both guys. I don't want to play any of the Commanders. I just think they're going to be a bug on the Detroit Lions windshield this Sunday.
- [56:28]
Ryan Wormley
I, I totally agree, which is why I put this question here. I was like, if I, if I tried to force you to pick somebody and you sneakily just picked people who obviously nobody would be starting.
- [56:37]
Pat Fitzmaurice
He was deep in his bag, baby. I love it.
- [56:39]
Ryan Wormley
I mean, I like, you couldn't pay me to start Jacori Crosby merit this week. And then Debo, like, if you're fading him, who else are you even gonna really. Zach Ertz, maybe a tight end catches a touchdown. Like, I, I don't know. So I, I, I mean, I'm with you there, Fitz again, that's why I asked the question. Debra, what do you think?
- [56:53]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I just put Debo in here only because I firmly believe the Commanders are going to be trailing Debo versus single high has not been good. And that's been one of the biggest struggles for the Commanders. They don't have with McLaren out. They don't have an answer for single high coverage. They literally don't have a guy that could beat on single high on that entire fricking roster. But if you want to have the glass half full approach with Debo, they're going to be trailing target volume. And Detroit has struggled against slot wide receivers, so that's the a pro case for Debo.
- [57:24]
Ryan Wormley
Debo's wide receiver, 22, though, like, he's so high. I don't want to be above consensus.
- [57:29]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I know you're saying somebody, I think.
- [57:32]
Ryan Wormley
I don't want to do the right. I think Ertz is the right decision because tight end, you could catch a touchdown. If he gets a touchdown, he's probably going to be higher than tight end 16. I think it's a better bet than anybody else. I mean, I'm not saying I want to rank him that highly, but I think that's a better bet than anybody else in this. This offense outperforming their ranking. It's ugly. So, yeah, yeah, we can actually move on pretty quickly from that. Sunday Night Football Steelers at Chargers the Chargers usual suspects are ranked in their typical ranges this week according to consensus. But I find myself worried and everybody, I think a lot of people find themselves worried about an offensive line missing both tackles for the season, going up against a Steelers pass rush that got it going a bit last week and, you know, obviously has a lot of talent in the front seven. So I'm wondering, dbro, if you're fading any Chargers players this week based on that matchup, or are you more kind of ranking them along the lines of ecr?
- [58:23]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm not fading the Chargers players overall, man, but I won. There is one that does stick out to me. Like Keenan Allen is wide receiver 33 in ECR right now, but the last two weeks he's wide receiver 48 and he's wide receiver 56. In weekly scoring, he's only had a 50% route share, so he's been splitting time with Trey Harris of the last two weeks and his target share has dropped to 18%. Now, I'm not saying the matchup isn't good for him, and I'm not saying they haven't gone to him versus single high coverage. Gonna see a crap ton of it this week. But based off of what he's doing and the fact that his route shear has dropped, it is. Is dropped the floor for him as a fantasy asset and it's capped the ceiling over the last two weeks. So I, I have a hard time. Kind of part of this is the bye weeks, but I think he's ranked a little too aggressively.
- [59:14]
Ryan Wormley
What do you think, Fitz? Are you nervous about the Chargers at all? I mean, could be Keenan Allen, could be somebody else. The total in this game is 45. Just for what it's worth on Hard Rock Bet, but what do you think about this matchup for the Chargers offense?
- [59:25]
Derek Brown
I'm two spots below consensus on Justin Herbert, and it looks like I'm a little below consensus on lad McConkey right now. I'm at consensus on Keenan Allen. Debro makes a great case. I think we should move him down. The other thing, with Keenan Allen, like with Joe altogether out, maybe the Chargers play a little more 12 personnel and they play like one of their tight ends who can actually block with Gadsden, who's more of a glorified wide receiver, which would mean a reduction in Snapchat, a further reduction in snapshare for Keenan Allen. So with Herbert, Joe Alt did miss three games earlier this season, weeks five, six, seven. And we didn't really see an adverse effect on Justin Herbert's numbers in those three games. But two of those three games were against the Commanders at Dolphins. Really good matchups. The other one was against the Colts and that was that game where the Chargers fell into that deep hole and Herbert threw 55 passes for 420 yards and three touchdowns. But I do expect just overall a less functional passing game with Joe Alt out and maybe a less functional running game too. Like the Chargers did trade for Trevor Penning from the Saints, but like Alts, one of the best tackles in the league and Penning is just a, you know, adequate starter.
- [60:39]
Ryan Wormley
We got. I mentioned earlier that we got a lot of questions on Kyle Menung guy on the start sit stream. We also got a lot of questions on Quentin Johnston and we basically never like Erickson and I don't think ever picked him as like pick three guys to start and one of them was Johnson. We never went in that direction. He did get a touchdown in this last game. Obviously he had no targets the week before which kind of threw everybody off. You guys didn't really mention him here. Are you above or below consensus on Johnson Just quickly fits.
- [61:04]
Derek Brown
Where's he at, Worm? I think I'm two spots higher.
- [61:06]
Ryan Wormley
He's wide receiver 29.
- [61:08]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, I'm way higher. I am way higher on QJ this week. I've got him at wide receiver 23 I think so first of all, I think the Chargers injury reporting lies. I don't think that he was clearly not healthy if you looked at his early season target shares and I know lad was struggling during that and stuff but still QJ was running away with target share and then he just drops off the freaking map coming back from the hamstring injury and then he bounces back last week. This coverage matchup is fantastic for him. Like weeks one through four he was there clear and and easy wide receiver one versus single high coverage. Like he had a 25% target share versus single high. So I think if Herbert has time in the pocket, I know that's a big if in this game. I think QJ is going to have a really good game.
- [61:58]
Ryan Wormley
We are starting something new in this show. Each week we're going to be highlighting our favorite three and four star props from the prop bet Cheat sheet ahead of Sunday Night Football the cheat sheet is a wonderful resource for putting together your prop bets for the week. So we're going to start highlighting it on Sunday Night Football's matchup every single week and we're going to highlight those three and four star props. If you want the five star props you can go online and see those which have a much higher hit rate. These have good hit rates too, though I would strongly recommend checking them out deeper. I'll start with you. What is your favorite prop from this cheat sheet for Saturday Night Football?
- [62:28]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Can you gain? Well baby, it's a four star bet on the prop bet. Cheat sheet the over for his 15 and a half rushing yards and that you're gonna have to kind of book shop here and stuff like that. It's anywhere from like 15 and a half to I've seen it all the way up into the 20s so definitely shop lines here. Our projections on the site have it his line at 25.1 and he's hit the over in five of seven games as a backup and the matchup is good on the ground.
- [62:54]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, what's your favorite?
- [62:56]
Derek Brown
I pick Kamani Vidal under so initially it was a four star cheat sheet bet at 58 and a half rushing yards. It's down to 53 and a half at Hard Rock Bat and I still think the under is the right percentage play. I haven't noticed if we've downgraded that to like a three star play, but on this week's start situ, Jake Seeley and I argued about Kamani Vidal versus Breece hall and Jake said he preferred Breeze by a mile. I said I slightly preferred Videl just because he's in a better offense and has a better matchup like hall gets the Browns. I know the run defense hasn't been quite as good lately, but it's still really good and Jake did make a good point that Jared Patterson got involved for the Chargers and maybe Vidal's snapshare which was at 72% last week, maybe it comes down a little bit. And the Steelers run defense was good last week. They held Jonathan Taylor to 45 rushing yards and 3.2 yards per carry. So while I don't mind Videl and fantasy, I think under 53.5 rushing yards seems like a pretty decent bet.
- [63:54]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Still a three star bet.
- [63:57]
Ryan Wormley
I think you and Jake arguing on Videl is the like most like actually argumentative. I've seen the two of you in doing the show with you all that was fun.
- [64:07]
Derek Brown
I mean it was like yeah, it wasn't like angry.
- [64:09]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah. Agreeing with each other.
- [64:12]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Can you, can any of us say from the summer that you would have fast forward and said at week 10 you're going to have an argument about Bree hall versus Kamani Vidal?
- [64:20]
Derek Brown
Exactly.
- [64:21]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Nobody would have predicted that. Everybody was like, nah, no way man.
- [64:25]
Ryan Wormley
So those are our top prop bets for Sunday Night Football this week courtesy of Betting Pros. You can check out our NFL Prop Bet cheat sheet@bettingpros.com props premium subscribers have access to those five star prop bets which have a 58% win rate and we're up 95 units through week nine. Luckily, we've also got a special offer for everyone to unlock a month of Betting Pros Premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today and use promo code FP1MONTH. That's the number one not spelled out at checkout to redeem your offer. One more game on the slate here guys. Monday Night Football Eagles at Packers awesome game. Even with the packers coming off of a dud, I think this is a really fun matchup and I'm really excited to watch this. Except oh wait, I can't watch it. Thanks to YouTube TV and ESPN. That's a conversation for another day. Eagles at Packers I'm excited to follow this game I guess online fantasy wise. There wasn't a ton here. I did want to ask just kind of the the overall conversation of Tucker Craft's injury and what it's going to mean for the packers offense. Who is going to step up fits. You are a Packers fan. You're very close to the team. Who is going to step up in Craft's absence? Is it Luke? Luke Musgrave, as you know, backup tight end? Or will it be one of the team's many different receivers who we'll see a boost in value just through getting more work even if they're not a one to one replacement. Where does do those targets go?
- [65:40]
Derek Brown
The Eagles are a pretty tough matchup for tight ends. I think they've allowed like the fourth fewest fantasy points per game to tight end. So I don't expect Luke Musgrave to smash, but I'm cautiously optimistic that he shows us fantasy viability. Like it's easy to forget that Musgrave was actually drafted ahead of tucker Kraft in 2023. Musgrave was a second round pick, 42nd overall. Kraft was a third rounder, 78th overall. Musgrave started six games as a rookie before Kraft made his first NFL start and Musgrave is 6 foot 6 and ran a 461 at the combine which gave him a 94th percentile speed score. Like he's, he's toolsy so. And there's going to be some target spillover for Romeo Dobbs and Christian Watson too. Like, Dobbs is pretty close to a must start this week, I think. And. And Watson flex worthy at minimum.
- [66:34]
Ryan Wormley
It's such a cliche to compare Musgrave and Craft to Hunter Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews, but it really is like kind of.
- [66:43]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I got, I got a tweet out there right after they were drafted saying exactly that. Yeah, it's.
- [66:48]
Ryan Wormley
It's a. I mean it was in the same round, so a little different. But the year that the Ravens took Isaiah, likely they took Charlie Kohler earlier in that same round. So kind of similar where. Yeah, second tight end is sometimes better than the first. The. The Andrews Hearst is really the great comparison there. Debra, do you think Musgrave is, you know, a possibility to step up here and cross at Craft's absence or is it one of the receivers?
- [67:09]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think it's one of the receivers. I think like Fitzy talked about the matchup. I think the matchup is rough for him. Did I. I honestly think like Romeo Dobbs has not gotten enough love from people this year like what he's done and the fact that he stepped up as the clear wide receiver one for the Green Bay packers, like Dubs is a 20 target share this year. He has 2.0 yards per route run. He is a 25 first read share. If you look at him just like. And he's been coverage agnostic. Like he's been good versus single high and too high and not. There's very few wide receivers you could say that are good versus both of these coverage shells. But Dubs is good versus both them. Like 2.0, 1.9 yards per route run against both them. He's top 26 in both of those against both those coverage shells. So like, I think Jordan Love is going to lean on his number one guy a little bit more this week and moving forward. So Fitzy talked about Dubs as a. Is a must play. I mean, I think he's a strong rest of season wide receiver and I, I have been hesitant to say that about any Green Bay packers wide receiver because of what LaFleur does. But I think this does kind of narrow the target tree some.
- [68:18]
Ryan Wormley
Just quickly before we wrap up, are you guys downgrading Jordan Love without Tucker Craft?
- [68:25]
Pat Fitzmaurice
No, because I think the scheme provides and I think lafora is still gonna. He's still gonna get it up. And love has been playing so well this year, man. Just not a lot of volume fits.
- [68:35]
Derek Brown
Yeah, I mean, because of the volume, I I kind of am. I've got him wide or quarterback 15 this week.
- [68:42]
Ryan Wormley
All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there. We don't let along for everybody. Best of luck here in week 10 and in your fantasy playoff pushes for debro enfits, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [69:35]
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- [70:05]
Zyn Nicotine Pouches Advertiser / PayPal Advertiser
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- [70:38]
Pat Fitzmaurice
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- [70:50]
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- [71:40]
Ryan Wormley
This is an iHeart podcast.