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FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 11 (Ep. 1843)
01:07:22
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- [00:00]
Podcast Host/Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast.
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Ryan Wormley
Fantasy Pro's Fantasy Football Podcast is brought to you by Grainger. If you work as a maintenance manager, your facility is your home turf and your home field advantage is having a partner like Grainger. They offer trusted professional grade products for every industry from lighting and electrical to safety and everything in between. Plus fast dependable delivery. Which is why they always come through in the clutch. Just like you. Call 1-800-granger. Click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan, warmly joined as I am every Friday by Derrick Brown and Pat Fitz Morris. We are answering and asking key questions here for week 11. Quick reminder for everybody, all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found@fantasyprose.com rankings or we have the least impactful bye week we've had in a while. Except for the fact that Jonathan Taylor is not playing. If you remove that from the equation, it's only two teams and one of those teams is the Saints. So Colts and Saints are the two of course, which is a lot easier than it has been. We had the 16 by we've had some four team buys with a lot of really good players. Colts have obviously been great this year. Jonathan Taylor is like the story of fantasy but he's really the main megastar that is missing, you know, from, from these teams on bye more games to get through, more players that we can get to pick from and actually can start something closer to a fuller, you know, true lineup. This at this point in the season. Before we jump in though, one player who is maybe elevating to superstar status in front of our eyes, Travion Henderson coming off of a three touchdown game. They gave him a couple carries close to the goal line to try and get him a fourth. It didn't happen. But 19 carries overall, 62 yards, two rushing touchdowns and then he had five catches on five targets. 31 yards and one of those was a touchdown as well. Fitz, this is somebody that you were ranking. I, I believe it was your RB8 in dynasty before the season started very, very high on him. Obviously a slow start. Obviously somebody that you and DBRO have not like fought on this year on the show but have disagreed on at times in the show about, you know, what this was going to look like in the second half. Some vindication for you here on Thursday Night Football, by the way. Patriots win 27 14.
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Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, I mean I don't feel super vindicated. I don't know if I've been overly high on Henderson relative to the community. I think we were all kind of waiting for this. It, it was just strange that he was not getting a little more usage. Like I don't think it's crazy that they were mixing in a lot of Ramondre Stevenson, you know, but it's going to be really interesting to see what it looks like going forward. I still think the Patriots might prefer a bigger bodied guy near the goal line, so I wouldn't be surprised if it was still Ramond Andre getting most of the touches inside the five yard line, the 10 yard line going forward. But I, I do think the genie's kind of out of the bottle here with Travion Henderson and he's going to be a really solid like running back to the rest of the way.
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Ryan Wormley
I was going to ask you to put a number on it. Rest of season ranking just obviously you're not beholden to this but shooting from the hip right now, where do you think he's going to be rest of season rankings come Monday morning yet mid.
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Pat Fitz Morris
Range running back too. Like, like I'll say running back 1718.
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Ryan Wormley
Okay Debra, how does that sound to you?
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Derrick Brown
I think people are going to over. I'm not going to say overreact, but a three touchdown game coming off of what three games in a row being a bell cow. I'd be surprised if he's outside the top 13 to 15 running backs for people rest of season rankings just because overreaction season is real and I'm not, I'm not taking anything away from Trayvon and I want to be very clear about how I frame Trayvon. In the last few weeks his efficiency metrics have not been good but dude he is playing like they are opening up big holes and his speed has taken over and he's getting a crap. He played 90% of the freaking snaps last night guys. Like I don't know if that keeps up with Ramon Dre back and obviously Terrell Jennings was active but not really active. So I don't know if they continue to ride him like a true bell cow the rest of the season. But the volume, the touchdown equity with this offense. It's wheels up rest of season for Trayvon.
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Pat Fitz Morris
You, you think mid range running back to rest of the season or higher?
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Derrick Brown
I mean I was just looking at it like before Worm kind of went RB14 is kind of where I'm at Fitzy like him versus Saquon like yeah.
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Pat Fitz Morris
But Saquon is still a bell cow. I don't think Ramon Dre is just going to be like a straight backup to Trayvon Henderson when Ramon Drake gets back. I think it's going to be maybe, maybe 60 in Trey's favor. But I, I think Ramandre is going to have a pretty substantial role still.
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Derrick Brown
That's fair. I mean I, I, I probably like 65, 35 Trayvon I just with with him versus Saquon it's like yeah one guy is the clear bell cow but he's not doing anything with the volume too. You know outside of the Giants game it's like that's pumped up his season long numbers a ton.
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Ryan Wormley
So given everything we've heard from Vrabel, would it totally stud you Fitz if it was 6040 in favor of Ramandre?
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Pat Fitz Morris
What's Ramandre itself?
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Ryan Wormley
Yeah, I mean but I, I don't think, I wouldn't, I wouldn't say there's it's a zero percent chance.
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Derrick Brown
Not after the last three weeks. Like if Trayvon hadn't looked like, like a total frickin stud like at different times then I, I think yeah, I think you're probably right Worm. But I to Fitz his point like how, how do you put the toothpaste back in the tube at this point? How, how do you do that?
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Ryan Wormley
Yeah, you can't unring that bell. Drake may looked really good. Wasn't his biggest fantasy day but you know he was his usual good self. Diggs was good on the jet side. Like Fields was bad but he had 60 yards and a rushing touchdown. So of course that helps you a ton in fantasy. Is Mechi Debro somebody that you're interested at all catching the only touchdown here. I mean I feel like we don't even really need to talk about the jets side of this truthfully.
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Derrick Brown
I mean the answer, the answer honestly with their passing game is just nobody even after coming off the ir. Like when are we going to see Garrett Wilson? Like do we see him the rest of the regular season? Like this is not a team that like needs to push him out there. They're going to still continue to not win games. I know they were competitive ish in this game. I just, it's really just breathe because dude like Fields is playing at a point where Tyrod it is live every single week where Tyrod could take over at any point of the game. Like that's how bad he's struggling. So it's really the jets are breeze hall and then a lot of I just don't care.
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Ryan Wormley
Yeah I mean Garrett Wilson best case Scenario is back for the fantasy playoffs. I doubt it that he's coming up. You know, Rusty Rust will be a factor. He'll be, you know, stepping into a poor offense in all likelihood, like, yeah, fits like 80. Mitchell, he got six targets. One of them. I mean, just like, what is there to talk about here at the jets? Or can we just move on?
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Pat Fitz Morris
We can move on. AD Mitchell, like, AD Is still intriguing for Dynasty, but man, like, he did not make the most of his targets last night. He looked pretty bad. And in fairness to Fields, like Fields, passing numbers should have been a little better if AD could have. Actually, that's fair. Some professional catches.
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Derrick Brown
Yeah, that's fair.
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Ryan Wormley
All right, let's get into the Sunday slate. We have one fight. I think I said it was the last one last week and of course I was wrong. There was one final international game here. Commanders Vers Dolphins in Madrid. So one last chance to get up early. One last chance to take advantage. Well, not last chance to use it, but a last prime opportunity for autopilot tool fantasy pros in case there's any surprise inactives or injuries or anything in the morning and you're trying to sleep in on Sunday. This is the last one of the season, though. Like I said, Commander's Dolphins not exactly going out on a high note for the international slate here. If I took Devon Achan and Jalen Waddle off the table, they are not options for you. Which player in this game would you most want to be starting this week? Dbro.
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Derrick Brown
Dude, there's actually a bunch of guys on the Commander side I can make a case for here. I could talk about Chris Rodriguez being a really solid RB3, maybe an RB2 if he gets into the end zone this week. I'll go with the position. I think people are kind of struggling at the bottom end. I'll go with Zach Ertz here. It's a fantastic matchup for him. Like, Miami's allowed the fifth most receiving yards and the seventh highest yards per reception and the third most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Like I've got Zachary as a tight end one this week. I'll playing over and two players that I highlighted last week that I think people are emphatically point chasing on. I'll play Zach hurts over Kate Otten and Dalton Schultz this week.
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Ryan Wormley
Okay. Ertz is ranked as tight end 16 in half PPR score. So you are above consensus. It also sounds like you're above consensus on Rodriguez. Chris Rodriguez is RB42.
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Derrick Brown
Yeah. In so his ranking versus Bill is wrong. This week like he was. He left the game with an injury and Bill was benched like in the first half of that game Chris Rodriguez played almost 70% of the snaps. So ECR has it wrong. Bill is above Chris Rodriguez and that it should be flipped. Like in my rankings I have them flipped. Am I wrong?
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Pat Fitz Morris
Maybe not. I mean the, the shoulder injury for Rodriguez is sort of the wild card.
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Derrick Brown
But he's practicing in full. He's practicing.
- [09:22]
Pat Fitz Morris
I know.
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Ryan Wormley
ECR has been wrong on Bill for months at this point. I mean he has not topped six fantasy points in half PPR scoring since week five. He hasn't gotten double digits more he that week five is the only time since week one he's been in double digits. I don't understand why he continues to be ranked. I mean it's starting to drop a little but he's still inside the top 36 of the position. I, I, I get. Miami is, is, is a nice matchup but especially with the emergence of Rodriguez like and it's the fact that it's not going to be a high scoring offense in general. I mean I've been fading Krusky merit. I feel like like I said for months at this point Fitz, who's the player in this game again besides Waddle and Hn obviously that you'd be most interested in starting.
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Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, I kind of don't want to play any of the Commanders running backs because there is still ambiguity and the Miami run defense has actually been better. It was a train wreck in the first part of the season but they kept Bijan Robinson and James Cook under wraps in recent weeks. So I really don't want to play Debo if I don't have to. Like Marcus Mariota started four games for the Commanders. Debo had 11 receiving yards in two of those games. The other two were okay, 6 for 72 and a touchdown, 4 for 29 and a touchdown. But we've, we've seen the floor is pretty low. So you know what I mean. I would be willing to play either of these quarterbacks. And a pinch I've got Mariota QB13 to a QB15. Mariota's four starts this season. QB6, QB17, QB19, QB13. So not bad. He offers some rushing value. And the Dolphins have given up the ninth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. It's Tua who has a really appealing matchup here. Like the commanders are 30th in defensive EPA per play. They have the worst opponent passer rating in the league. They're giving up 8.9 yards per pass attempt. No one else is giving up more than 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The pass D has just been atrocious and two has been pretty good. Over his last three games, 69% of his passes completed 7.3 yards per attempt. The only thing is that I, the Dolphins are favored in this game and in Dolphins WINS this year, two has not thrown more than 26 passes in any of them. Like they, they want to run the ball if they can.
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Ryan Wormley
I, I, I mean maybe there's just recency bias. I feel like, like Washington might actually be a worse pass defense than the Bengals. Just like the last couple of games they've been non competitive on the field. It's been so bad. Mariota is ranked several spots higher than TUA in ECR dbro. Do you see them as close or would you maybe make the case for TUA ahead of them? Ahead of Mariota?
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Derrick Brown
I see them, I see them as close. I think with the rushing equity that Mariota has, I would rather lean with Mariota. But I think there's actually a lot of really interesting QB2s this week. Like you could talk me into Geno, Smith, Davis, Mills, a lot of different guys that like in that, that have good matchups and stuff that could pop off. So like I don't, I think once you get past about QB 9 or 10, there's just a long tier of guys. You can make your case for your guys at that point.
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Pat Fitz Morris
Do you like Geno more than tua?
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Derrick Brown
I, I do only because to your point Fitzy, I don't have a problem with Gino's volume and Dallas is going to push the Raiders. Like I have a feel a better vibe about Gino's volume in that game and Dallas putting the Raiders in catch up mode, they're going to have to pass.
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Pat Fitz Morris
The point about pushing them is a good one. But I just, I worry that the Raiders offensive line might be pretty close to non functional and we sort of saw that with the protection of Gino.
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Derrick Brown
That's fair. I mean to the C. The only counterpoint that I can offer with that is Dallas's pass rush is kind of same thing. It's like basically weakness versus weakness.
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Ryan Wormley
They did add, you know, to the defensive line. So we'll see how, how much of an impact that has here in the, you know, coming out of the buy. All right, let's go to game number two here in the regular early slate. Panthers at Falcons. This is a rematch of a game we saw back in I believe week three. The Panthers defense shut out the Falcons in a 30 to nothing win that week. It was one of the most surprising games of the season. So Fitz, I'll start with you. Can the defense limit this offense again or are you expecting like, obviously you're not expecting a shutout, but like generally will it limit it again or are you expecting a much better output from Atlanta's stars?
- [13:51]
Pat Fitz Morris
I mean, Bijan Robinson is certainly due to snap out of this little mini funk he has been in. First seven weeks of the season, Bijan averaged 21.7 half point PPR fantasy points per game over the last three weeks, 9.2 fantasy points per game, which has been worse than Kamani Vidal and Kyle Menangai and some other, you know, not exactly superstar running backs. So first time against the Panthers, solid game for Bijan. Obviously no touchdowns and a shutout, but 13 carries for 72 yards, five catches for 39. And the Panthers run defense, which got off to a pretty good start this season, seems to be crumbling a little bit. James Cook destroyed Carolina a few weeks ago, 216 rushing yards, two touchdowns. And last time we saw the Panthers, creaky old Alvin Camara had his best rushing game of the season. So yeah, I like Bijan this week. And how can you not feel good about Drake London? He's been on an absolute tear. Five touchdowns in his last five games, over 100 yards in four of those five games. He had five for 55 against Carolina the first time around. I think he'll fare better this time.
- [15:04]
Derrick Brown
DBRA, I think Atlanta wins this game and I think the offense looks a lot better. And to Fitzy's point, yeah, Carolina's run defense has taken a step back like over the last, since week six, they've allowed the sixth highest yards per carry to zone runs at 4.62 B. John Robinson, 75% of his runs have been on zone concepts this year. So wheels up for him and Drake on them like and, and this is basically the entire Atlanta Falcons passing offense. Well, offense just in general. But I do think that Kyle Pitts also has a really strong game in this one. But Atlanta, I think they roll man, like this at home and they're only getting three and a half. I, I, I think they cover that and I think they win.
- [15:45]
Ryan Wormley
I was going to ask about Pitts because Carolina has this reputation as being really poor against tight end. They are, you know, deservedly so for, for the most part. Yeah, but Kyle Pitts back In that Week 3 game, just four catches for 39 yards, you might think, oh well, It's Kyle Pitts. That's actually a good day for him. It's one of his, his lower days of the year. It's not that, you know, out of line with, with a lot of his fantasy output this season, but it's not like it was towards his best day either. So they did limit him, you know, the way they limited everybody else. What about Pennix? We just talked about some of these other quarterbacks like Mariota and Tua, you know, is he somebody that like, in a pinch you're considering De Rose?
- [16:19]
Derrick Brown
I'm, I'm not. Only because to Fitzy's point, I think this is the big bounce back week for Bijan Robinson. He has zero touchdowns and, and in his last three games. You want to talk about a massive touchdown regression candidate like where everybody's like, oh, the Carolina run defense and blah blah, blah. And then Bijan drops three touchdowns on him. I, I think this is the regression spot.
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Ryan Wormley
Fitz, what do you think about Pennix Super Flex?
- [16:43]
Pat Fitz Morris
I've got him like RB25 and I'm pretty pro Pennix, but yeah, it's just. Yeah, I mean it's just. I think it's maybe a run heavy spot for the Falcons.
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Derrick Brown
I'm with you, Fitzy. I gotta make QB24 too, so we're kind of hand holding there.
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Ryan Wormley
Do you have, by the way, guys, Bijan as RB1 this week with Jonathan Taylor out or are you going with like CMC?
- [17:04]
Pat Fitz Morris
No, gotta go, gotta go. McCaffrey.
- [17:06]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, I got my cat. I got, I got Bijan at RB2. But I think there's a really interesting like top four running backs of the week. Like you could make a case for Bijan. Cmc, Josh Jacobs as like all those A chan. Oh yeah, a Chan. Sorry, sorry. A chain. I have an RB3, so. Yes, yes. A Chan. Yes.
- [17:24]
Ryan Wormley
Dude.
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Pat Fitz Morris
Excuse me.
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Derrick Brown
Sorry. If it's he, I'm at my head.
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Ryan Wormley
All right, let's go to game number three here. Buccaneers at Bills. I couldn't quite land on what I thought was like the perfect question for this. So I want to kind of fall back on what I do and I can't come up with a good question which is have you guys pick one player in this game whose consensus ranking is too low and one player in this game whose consensus ranking for this week is too high. Fitz, we'll start with you.
- [17:49]
Pat Fitz Morris
I think Baker Mayfield is maybe a tad too low. Like I'm two spots above consensus on Baker. ECR likes Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams more. Those guys have really Tough matchups. I mean Stafford has to face Seattle. Their defense has just been outstanding. Caleb has to play the Vikings on the road in U.S. bank Stadium, a really tough venue for opposing quarterbacks. I realize the Bills D has been pretty stingy to QBs and fantasy this year, but I like Baker Mayfield's outlook now that his offensive line is totally healthy. And I think Josh Allen and the Bills can push Baker into a shootout type of game. So too high. Like I feel like ECR always seems a little too high on Khalil Shakir, who, who I like a lot but the ceiling is pretty low. Has not had a 90 yard game this season, let alone a 100 yard game. Shakira has three touchdowns but only one since week four. ECR has him wide receiver 29. I'm, I'm just a little bit lower than that.
- [18:46]
Derrick Brown
Is Shakir going to play this week? Guys, that, that's a real question I was going to ask you. Fitzy like ankle and ribs he's been limited non contact jerseys like I think he probably goes but it's, it's up in the air.
- [19:00]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah. I mean even if you're setting injury aside, Shakira is somebody that I've been confused by his ranking in past weeks where it's just like I just don't think the ceilings there like to your point fits are are they playing tool on fantasypros.com gives Shakira an 89% chance to play based on the practice reports and everything. So keep an eye on that for sure on Friday. We're taping this Friday morning see what the Friday practice report looks like it if that changes but right now were projecting him to play. I, I, I think like most weeks that you could just like kind of, you know, blindfold, throw a dart and say like you know what I'm just going to, I'm just going to throw Khalil Shakir's name out there is ranked too high this week and you've probably been right again. It's you know, good player with a bit of a floor but like that ceiling is just not there. So I'm with you there. Deborah, what do you think about what Fitz said on the quarterbacks? Do you agree with Baker as maybe like should be higher than like a Stafford or a Caleb?
- [19:52]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, I agree with Baker. I think the only thing that like if Bucky plays this week and they, they're able to kind of lean in the run game, that's the only worry because the Bills you can always run on the freaking Bills. That's been true the last like two or three seasons. The consistent drum that I've been beating and I'll continue to beat here is Keon Coleman like in ecr. I never understand like to Fitzy's point about Khalil Shakir, why is Keon Coleman like I know that he had had the the outlier game last week. If you look at his game logs it's been pitiful since it like since week 2 wide receiver 71 in fantasy points per game but he's like ECR wide receiver every single week. He's like a wide receiver 4 I there's just other guys I would much rather play Ricky on Coleman weekly like matchup for perimeter wide receivers is good versus Tampa but again I have no faith the guy I wanted to bring up here and this is I'm not saying that I don't have him as my QB one just like everybody else. I think there's an interesting conversation around Josh Allen. Like Khalil Shakira is banged up. Dalton Kincaid is not going to play. He's got the hamstring issue. Keon Coleman hasn't been doing anything the last five since week five. Josh Allen QB12QB17QB9, QB3, QB8 but an ACR is QB1 with a bullet every single week. Like is Josh Allen a little bit too high? I just want to have the conversation guys. I'm not saying that I don't have him like buried in my ranks or anything like that. I'm not insane. But are we still a little bit too high on Josh Allen?
- [21:26]
Pat Fitz Morris
The week you fade Josh Allen is the week runs for 60 yards and three touchdowns. Yeah, like the rushing is always that wildcat, especially since he scores so many rushing touchdowns. And here's the interesting thing, like I get what you're saying, Debro. There is this fair perception that the Bills don't have much of a downfield passing game this year. But what's kind of crazy is that I mean I suppose this has to something to do with a shorter passing game. But Josh Allen currently over 70% completion percentage. He's never done that in his career. Currently he's averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt, which would go down as the highest mark of his career, which you would not think would be the case for a guy who is not doing much business deep downfield.
- [22:09]
Derrick Brown
I agree with that. If you would have asked me what his yards per attempt were, I would have guessed high sixes, low sevens wouldn't have been there.
- [22:18]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, if you look at just like the number of attempts, you know, week one he had 46 obviously, but you know, 25 and week two, 28 in week three, 22 in week four, 31, 26, 19, 26. Like he's only been over 33 times this season and one of them was he was at 31. So it's the game against Baltimore, the game against Miami where you know, they were trailing in those games obviously and the rest has been just not throwing a lot. This game against Miami last Week was his first 300 yard passing game since week one. He just didn't, you know, have any rushing touchdowns in this one. So it didn't, you know, ultimately end up being this huge high ceiling day.
- [22:54]
Pat Fitz Morris
That's a, that's a pretty high level game manager you've got there at, at quarterback for Buffalo.
- [22:59]
Ryan Wormley
But you know, Baker, you know, has been good, really good at times this season. Like could. This could be the type of offense that pushes them. To your guys point about Baker being a little low and therefore it becomes something close to a shootout and, and a big Allen day. I was telling you D, bro, before the show that I have to pick between Allen and Hertz and a guillotine league. I have both and you were saying that you would actually go with Hertz over Allen.
- [23:20]
Derrick Brown
I supply Hertz.
- [23:21]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah. What do you think about that fits between those two?
- [23:24]
Pat Fitz Morris
I'm still team Allen.
- [23:27]
Ryan Wormley
Allen does feel like one of those guys where it's like just don't overthink it. Like just again I, if, if I, if I got eliminated in this league because I sat Alan and this is the week he has 350 and then another 80 on the ground, like that would be.
- [23:40]
Derrick Brown
I'm just playing into the total and I think that you know, the Lions and Eagles offer more shootout potential than probably this game, but maybe I'm wrong with that. To your point though, Worm, are we too low on a Mecca Buka this week? Like honestly, like he's wide receiver 9 and ECR. The matchup is fantastic. Buffalo runs a crap ton of too high versus too high and a Mecca Abuka splits single versus too high have been massive. That's what you've seen some of the volatility based off of coverage matchups and his weekly performances. Dude versus too high. Amongst all wide receivers, at least 75 routes and Mecca Buka is fifth in yards per route run and ninth in fantasy points per route run. So like should he be closer to being a top five wide receiver this week?
- [24:25]
Ryan Wormley
I mean maybe like obviously he got hurt in week six. So throw that one out. Week seven like I know he got 12 targets but like he was very likely not going to play most of that week going into that Detroit game and then he ended up doing it anyway. But like I think you can kind of throw that out like not knowing exactly how healthy he was. So besides those two games he has been a top eight wide receiver more often than he hasn't in in he's played this season.
- [24:47]
Derrick Brown
Like him versus Justin Jefferson who's right ahead of him in ecr. I I I would easily take a mecca this week. Like it Am I crazy here?
- [24:57]
Ryan Wormley
I don't think you're crazy. We actually are going to get to Justin Jefferson during that Vikings game which and I think he's a really interesting convers term. There's a lot of talk about him as a great buy low right now th this week. I mean I know Bears have a bad defense, we'll get to that one. But I think that's actually a really good head to head. Let's, let's table that for the Vikings conversation before we to the next game. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. If you're listening to this podcast, you're probably deep in the stats, injury reports and matchups. Put your fantasy football knowledge to the test on Hard Rock Bet. Try your first bet on Hard Rock Bet today. Just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. And if you're not sure what to place your first bet on, check out the Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie. Neither does the data in there. Check out the Stats Hub now. Get the edge and bet with confidence. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida. It's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. Coming soon to more states too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable and bonus bets.
- [26:09]
Derrick Brown
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- [26:59]
Ryan Wormley
Warning.
- [27:00]
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- [27:42]
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- [28:17]
Derrick Brown
See paypal.com promoterms subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com payinfor paypal inc.nmls910457.
- [28:27]
Ryan Wormley
Next game here guys. Chargers at Jaguars Kamani Vidal has alternated from RB8 to RB33 to RB7 to RB44 to RB8 in the last five weeks. Very much alternating. I believe Jake on yesterday's show said it was like the even year San Francisco Giants winning the World Series every other year. That's what it's felt like with Videl. So I ask you guys, is week 11 going to be another top eight positional finish, or is it going to be another week outside the top 30? Continuing this pattern fits.
- [28:56]
Pat Fitz Morris
Maybe this is the week we get a middling game out of Kymani Vidal. Because on one hand, the Jaguars are easier to throw on than to run on. Their past defense is 20th in DVOA, run defense 12th in DVOA. The Jaguars have held six of their nine opponents this season under 100 total rushing yards. And meanwhile their past defense has allowed the second most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They just gave up 292 yards and two touchdowns to Davis Mills. On the other hand, the Chargers need offensive balance. Like, it's great that Greg Roman has thrown a willingness to go pass heavy. I think they ranked second in pass rate over expected this year. But the Chargers offensive line is just kind of a mess without Joe altogether. And the Steelers got pressure on Justin Herbert on over 40% of his dropbacks last week. Like, that's a problem. You have to protect Justin Herbert. You, you have to run the ball to keep the Jaguars pass rushers from cutting it loose and going after Herbert all the time. So I think Vidal gets a good number of carries this week. I, I just don't know if he's going to be all that efficient against a pretty good run defense.
- [30:04]
Ryan Wormley
Just quickly, I want to mention, because we've just wrapped up that conversation actually like four minutes ago, one of the Bill's beat reporters tweeted that Khalil Shakir heading in the right direction and should be in a good spot for the game, according to Sean McDermott. Also, Kincaid is officially out, but I don't. I think we were kind of expecting that. Yeah. So Videl is ranked kind of in that middling range in ECR. He's RB18 right now. Not that that's middling, that's ranked as a starter, but just compared to kind of this like alternating between top eight and outside the top 30. Relative to that, it's kind of middling. DBRA, what do you think about what Fitz was saying about, you know, I mean, the Chargers passing game in general? Like, I was really nervous about them against Pittsburgh because of the Pittsburgh pass rush and the state of this offensive line. Obviously the Chargers win that game very handedly, but I think it's something that is like, it's still fair to be nervous about that going forward, even though it didn't limit them so much in that game. And Videl obviously had a great game in that week. So. So what do you expect out of this game in general. And is this going to be a game where Vidal gets a chance to shine?
- [31:04]
Derrick Brown
I think. And to Fitzy's point, this is a horrible matchup for him on the ground. But I think, like, kind of like last week, volume wins the day. Like, I think the Chargers win this game. I think Trevor Lawrence struggles in this game against the Chargers past defense, the only saving grace for the Jaguars to move the ball. I think it's a big game or at least a big opportunity for Travis etn. Like, if they can keep it neutral, ETN should be able to just chew the Chargers up on the ground. Now in this game with Videl, I think you get closer to the spike week potential. Like, I. I'm with Fitzy. Like, I think it's more of a middling, like if you're playing the median here. But if I got to pick one side of the aisle to be on, I'd be more pro. Kamani Vidal, the matchup is horrible, but I think what you've seen in the games where he has had the spike weeks, it's the Chargers get up and they're able to just kind of feed him carries and he gets there based off of volume and he gets in the end zone once or twice. That's probably where I lean with Kamani Vidal because I think the Chargers can run away with this game. If Trevor Lawrence, who has not been good, like guys like versus too high coverage right now, amongst 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he's 26th in fantasy points per drop back I. And the Chargers past defense has been really, really good. I think he could struggle and they could struggle to move the ball consistently with him.
- [32:22]
Ryan Wormley
Sorry, did you say. Where do you have him ranked?
- [32:23]
Derrick Brown
Oh, Trevor Lawrence, it's going to be basement level. I'm pulling them up right now. QB. QB 26.
- [32:33]
Ryan Wormley
I actually meant by Dell, but I would, you know, once you said no.
- [32:37]
Pat Fitz Morris
One'S starting Trevor Lawrence, nobody's starting trouble.
- [32:39]
Derrick Brown
Kamani Badell, I've got at RB20, like, I'm in kind of. There's a very interesting conversation of him versus Quinn. Sean Judkins versus Woody Marks kind of in that area code.
- [32:55]
Pat Fitz Morris
And 20 for me also.
- [32:57]
Ryan Wormley
20 for you also. Okay. All right, let's go to that Bears at Vikings game that we alluded to earlier talking about Justin Jefferson. J.J. mcCarthy had the most passing yards of his career last week, but it didn't really help fantasy managers in terms of the receivers because exactly half of them went to Jalen Naylor, who nobody was Starting. So I want to ask about the two guys that people would be starting. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Where are you guys ranking both of these players coming off games where they both received at least 11 targets and they both finished with under 40 yards? Dbro, I'll start with you. I know you've been a big fan of J.J. mcCarthy throughout.
- [33:30]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, I, I think this is a Good game for J.J. mcCarthy. Like I, the Bears past defense has been just an utter mess. I'm a little bit, I'm looking for Addison. I've got addison at wide receiver 34. I've got Jefferson at wide receiver 10. Kind of just splitting hairs between him and a bunch of other top guys. Like a me I have above above him. I have Jalen Waddle ahead of him. I got Amon Ra right ahead of him. But I think like him versus Nico Collins is a very interesting conversation. Addison. It just comes down to the coverage structure. Like Addison versus Single high has not been great this year. Like he has big, big splits too high. He gets more of his usage Single high. His target per route run rate has dropped to 15% with 1.4 yards per route run. So not that in on Addison. But J.J. like I, I think this is a bounce back game for J.J. mcCarthy and Justin Jefferson. Like the Bears past defense has been terrible and Jefferson has been good versus Single eye this year.
- [34:30]
Ryan Wormley
I, I find myself very nervous about starting anybody in this passing game. Just, you know, from what JG McCarthy has looked like, he's obviously made very good plays sprinkled throughout these games. He, he has these flashes where you're like holy cow. Like he can really spin it. This is a really impressive play. But like obviously like I watched that game very closely against the Ravens and he just sailed so many pass. I, I felt like the, I feel like the, the first interception really rattled him, at least in terms of how he, he threw it. I mean mentally, maybe it didn't, I don't know. He doesn't seem like that type of player. But like I felt like just in terms of the throws he was making and his willingness to, you know, just to put up the ball, I, I thought it was, it was a really poor game from him and I, I, I'm not saying he can't get better, but right now I, I'm pretty terrified to start Addison and Jefferson. Like obviously you're not going to sit him, but I'm pretty terrified to rank him, rank him highly even against the Bears defense. That's so bad. I just, I feel like I need to see more out of McCarthy, to have a degree of confidence there. Fitz, I know there's something that you and I talked a little bit about yesterday. How are you feeling about this matchup?
- [35:32]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, I agree with D. Ro that it's a really good spot for JJ McCarthy. Although I would urge DBRO not to skate any victory laps with the Stanley cup high above his head. If JJ McCarthy is a good game because he has been terrible to this point. Like they're just terrible. Like he has made a few big time throws and like he can really rip some impressive throws at times, but I don't know how many times he's thrown balls directly into the outstretched arms of defensive linemen this season. You talked about his tendency to sell throws. He is getting a little panicky in the pockets. But the Bears, like they're giving up 22.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Third most they have been playing without their two best cornerbacks, Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon, for most of the season. Those guys are on ir. They're not coming back this week. But right now, Jefferson in, in four games with McCarthy, 17 catches for 209 yards, two touchdowns. That's like just over 52 yards a game. But I am a little above consensus on both Jefferson and Addison Debro. I, I do have Jefferson ranked Ameka at Buka this week. Like, I just think he can victimize a secondary that has no one who can cover him.
- [36:50]
Derrick Brown
That's fair.
- [36:50]
Pat Fitz Morris
Like yeah, Tyreek Stevenson on, on Justin Jefferson. Like that. That screams 180 yard day to me. Yeah, if McCarthy can have a competent game.
- [37:00]
Ryan Wormley
D bro, did you feel like, like again, I watched that game very closely on Sunday. Obviously I felt like it was the worst game I've ever watched Justin Jefferson play. Not even talking about quarterback performance. I thought he was awful. Really confused. It was like, I was like, is he fighting through an injury I wasn't aware of? Is there some like off field mental thing on? Like it looked like the Marlon Humphrey interception where he barely moved. It was like Jefferson made.
- [37:23]
Derrick Brown
No did the same thing on the other pick too. He did the same thing.
- [37:26]
Pat Fitz Morris
Neither interception. Right.
- [37:27]
Ryan Wormley
That's dude, super weird.
- [37:29]
Derrick Brown
That's the thing. And, and I know everybody's going to think this is all copium. I'm just dealing with like trying to keep up for jj. There were three plays in that game that were all centered around Justin Jefferson that could have swung the stat line for both of those players. Both JJ's in that game. Both of the picks to Jeff, Justin Jefferson and the bang, bang play for the touchdown that Jefferson dropped. And I understand it was a tight window throw. I understand he got hit right after he got it. If he makes two of those three plays and he. That's the biggest problem where I have like, where it's like people looking at the box score and saying he completed less than 50% of his passes, he had two picks. He was just God awful. It's like that game could have swung very differently. And I felt like the vibes around Justin Jefferson, I don't know what's going on with all that, but the vibes around Justin Jefferson, him loafing after the both those picks and just being like, I don't care, I'm not running, whatever. I don't know what's going on there, but I'm with you guys that like, I just think context matters. And this is just like, I could blanket this with all quarterback interceptions where people look at the box scores and they say, ah, that quarterback had a terrible game. And when you watch the game, it's like not all interceptions are created equal. And some of those are on the quarterback and some of those are also on the wide receivers too.
- [38:46]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah. And by the way, can I, can I just say, like, we, we should give like J.J. mcCarthy a little grace. It's been four NFL starts.
- [38:52]
Derrick Brown
Nobody will do that, Bitsy. Nobody. Everybody wants to hate the guy. That's just how it is.
- [38:57]
Ryan Wormley
Any negativity I have on McCarthy is like, oh, for right now, I'm nervous about starting these receivers. I am not at all writing him off, like, long term. He's made five starts. That's nothing. Yeah.
- [39:06]
Derrick Brown
And, and everybody wants to bury him. Like, he's terrible. I, I think one of the, the narratives, and I'm sure this will get talked about going up to Sunday is JJ versus Caleb. And I think that is. And honestly, both of their career arcs have been very, very interesting and how both of them play in, in. In this game, it's very, very interesting. I, I'm gonna be glued to this game.
- [39:26]
Pat Fitz Morris
Caleb's turned the corner. His offensive line has been healthier and better. I think you could say he's at.
- [39:32]
Derrick Brown
A run game he can lean on. We can't say that for Minnesota too, you know.
- [39:35]
Pat Fitz Morris
True.
- [39:36]
Ryan Wormley
There was a really interesting conversation on the Athletic Football show with Robert Mays and Derek Classen this week and they were talking about how Caleb is actually does play similarly to JJ in terms of. They don't. Neither of them really has that true, like, rhythm in the, in the pocket. Yet, but it's like Caleb is like the more physically talented version of jj. So it just looks a little different with, with some of the army and things like that.
- [39:59]
Derrick Brown
My problem with what KOC has done to this point, there's not a lot of easy button things that he's doing too. Like, I, I feel like, and this is again, not me, Cape Verge. You don't see a lot of screen passes in this offense right now. It's a lot of like five step drops, grip it, rip it. A lot of like deep over routes and stuff. Like where it's like, dude, like some of these easy button throws like last week, a few screens to Justin Jefferson. Okay, why don't, why don't we do that a little bit more? Why is TJ Hawkinson just like absent from the passing game, man?
- [40:30]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, the, the other thing I would say before we move off this game is like, you know, for as much as we talk about, like if JJ's being inconsistent, can still make good plays, but like it's not there every time. You don't need that many good plays for somebody like Jeff, it's Justin Jefferson, if he's right to take advantage and have a good day. Like if, if McCarthy makes six good throws in this game and 20 bad ones, which I'm not saying it'll be that ratio, but if that happens, if four of those six throws are great throws to Jefferson down the field against the secondary, that can still be a really good day. It was funny after we taped yesterday, Fitz and I were talking a bit and Fitz said, I don't think jj, Justin Jefferson didn't look like one of the three best receivers in football in that game against the Ravens. And I was like, I don't think he looks like one of the three best receivers in Minnesota in that game. Like, it was really shocking to me how, how poor he looked. I cannot remember him ever looking like that before. So hopefully just a one off and it gets better against again, a really poor secondary and beat up secondary in the Bears. Let's go to the next game here. Packers at Giants. Debro. New coach and a new starting quarterback for the Giants this week. It'll be Mike Kafka and Jameis Winston. How do their changes impact your interest in their players for fantasy purposes? Against the packers, talking about guys like Darius Slayton, Wanda Robinson, Tyrone Tracy, Not a ton.
- [41:42]
Derrick Brown
I mean, I just. It's not a great matchup with the Giants. I, I think the, if you want to talk about the changes and Jameis versus because of James Versus Russ in this game one. I don't think Darius Slayton plays in this game. The hamstring issue I just, I do think holds him out. I think it just with the quarterback change because dude, Russ has been horrible this year. Horrible. Outside of like the game against the Cowboys where everybody's like oh see good Russ, dude, he's been God awful. I would say the quarterback change and I guess me feeling a little more optimism about anybody in the Giants offense would probably be for Theo Johnson because Russell Wilson does not access the middle of the field. He does not see the middle of the field. He will not use utilize the middle of the field. So looking at a player that's going to use like a lot of schemed up touches middle of the field routes, Theo Johnson's probably the guy that I feel a little bit better about in this game. Especially against the packers have given up the ninth most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends. But, but out outside of that I don't feel great about the Giants. This is one of those games where like you talk about the packers need to get right game where they can like really try to put the pedal to the metal and put up like 30 and like walk out of this game and be like hey look, our offense is humming. We look a lot better. Like this is the opportunity for them to kind of do that.
- [43:05]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, what do you think?
- [43:07]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, I mean I'm fascinated by what we're going to see out of Jameis. He could absolutely. This could be a Micah Parsons three sack game. It could be a four interception game for Jameis. We, we know Jameis wants to push the ball downfield like he is a hyper aggressive downfield thrower who will try to make hero throws into tight coverage without hesitation. And we saw this in the Browns. The seven starts Jameis made for the Browns last year average 291.1 passing yards per game with 12 interceptions in those seven starts he was quarterback 10 in fantasy points per game over that stretch that included a 36 point game and a 2.6 point game. So high ceiling low floor for Jameis. Place your bets. And you know how can we forget Jamis's final season with the Buccaneers in 2019 when he had a league high 5,109 passing yards and a league high 30 interceptions. So the prop on Jameis's passing yardage is something like 227.5. I already bet the over even though we don't know if Slayton is going to play. And right now our is he going to start tool 8% on Slayton, so probably not. But I think Wondale Robinson probably has a big game. Theo Johnson could have a nice game. We could see some rando like Jalen Hyatt have a big game for the Giants. But you know, again, we could also see Jameis throw four interceptions.
- [44:36]
Ryan Wormley
You can let Autopilot manage your fantasy football lineup automatically so you never have to worry about last minute changes. Auto swap inactive players and ensure your lineup is always optimized even when you can't be online. Take control the flexibility to approve lineup changes via email or let Autopilot handle everything. Stay ahead with my Playbook. Autopilot available now for Fantasy Pros Premium subscribers@fantasyprose.com MyPlaybook or on the Fantasy Pros app. Next game here guys. Another rematch. Bengals at Steelers Obviously this was a very fun game the first time. We all remember the incredible Thursday night matchup between these two. That was back in Week seven. Pretty much every player in the game had one of their best fantasy days of the season. DK Metcalf is the only one who didn't. And his day wasn't awful. It just wasn't one of the best like pretty much everybody else was. So are you guys expecting more fireworks in this rematch or you know, Steelers coming off a bad game. Joe Flacco has been great but is older. Like are you expecting maybe a bit of a come back to earth performance here?
- [45:33]
Derrick Brown
DBRO No, I think it's fireworks. I think it's fireworks for everybody in this game. Like a lot of really interesting flex options like Calvin Austin. I think Jalen Warren has a big game in this one. I think it's fireworks for everybody. Except for you talked about DK Mecca. I found a quiet game. I think he has another quiet game. DJ Turner, I think shadows him in this game. Turner followed him on 78 of his routes, held him to two catches and 45 scoreless receiving yards. So I think there's a lot of intrigue and I know a lot of people are going to talk themselves into Steelers tight ends. Just don't do that to yourself this week.
- [46:08]
Ryan Wormley
I was going to ask Friarmouth 111 yards, two touchdowns, none. Back to the well, none.
- [46:12]
Pat Fitz Morris
One of them is going off. You just don't know what.
- [46:15]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, Darnell Washington, two tighties coming in.
- [46:20]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, what do you think? I mean on the, on the Bengal side it's pretty easy. Like obviously Chase and Higgins were excited about and you know chase Brown had 108 rushing yards. He didn't get in the End zone. But he had 400 yards the last time against the Steelers. On the Steelers side, you know, where do you think the ball's going here?
- [46:36]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, Jalen Warren probably a lot. And, and sort of equal opportunity again. I do think there's going to be a Steelers tight end who goes off. I agree with DBRO on DK Metcalf. I've already bet the under on his receiving yardage, which I want to say was like at 54 and a half yards. Was that it? Debro? Yeah. So, yeah. But like the Steelers had a hard time moving the ball against the Chargers. They will not have as hard a time against a Bengals defense that ranks dead last in defensive DVOA and dead last in defensive EPA per play. And meanwhile the Bengals averaging 32.8 points a game and Joe Flaccos four starts in their last three games. 33, 38 and 42 points. So more fireworks.
- [47:21]
Derrick Brown
Fitzy, real fast, where are you ranking Chase Brown? Because Samaji P. Ron maybe being out of this game, I want to be above consensus on him because think that he's the guy that could pop off for maybe a bigger game than people are anticipating.
- [47:36]
Pat Fitz Morris
15.
- [47:36]
Derrick Brown
Okay, that, that's exactly where I'm at. Like I, I struggle with him versus like Kyron in a horrible matchup. And yeah, that's, that's where exactly where I'm at right now too.
- [47:48]
Ryan Wormley
He's 13th in ECR. The two names behind him are Kyron and Derrick Henry.
- [47:52]
Derrick Brown
Dang it. I'm gonna have to move him up a little bit.
- [47:56]
Ryan Wormley
I was gonna ask which octa octogenarian quarterback you guys liked better, but it looks like you both have Flacco inside the top. I mean, I mean Rogers is inside the top 15, so it's not like he's ranked lowly. But you guys both have Flacco.
- [48:07]
Pat Fitz Morris
Every week Flacco is ranked as like low end QB1, high QB2. He's QB1 in fantasy scoring since he came to Cincinnati.
- [48:16]
Derrick Brown
Yes, I love that you pointed that out, Fitzy, because I wrote that up in the primer and I was actually surprised when I found it. Since week six, QB1 in fantasy points per game.
- [48:25]
Pat Fitz Morris
It's volume, dude. 43.8 pass attempts a game. It's not going anywhere.
- [48:31]
Ryan Wormley
He's been QB, QB 15, QB 6, QB 7, QB 2.
- [48:35]
Derrick Brown
He should be a top 10 QB this week easy.
- [48:38]
Ryan Wormley
And the, and the game against Pittsburgh last time, that was the QB6 game. So yeah, obviously coming off the buy here. So since he's older, maybe that Bye week. You know, gets to rest up and come back even hotter now get rest in those old bones. Just a super fun story watching watching Flacco this season. Honestly it's really like seven years ago I I would have told you I thought his career was basically done and now here he is like QB1 over a month long stretch pretty great. Let's go to Texans at Titans yet. This is rematch week. Really. This is yet another game we've seen already this year. The Texans shut out the Titans the last time these two played. Nico Collins was great last week Davis Mills targeted him a whopping 15 times and Davis Mills will be starting again this week. But the Jags are a great matchup for Nico. His two best games of the season by a mile. Both have come against Jacksonville. So I'm wondering what you guys expect from him this week out of Tennessee.
- [49:29]
Derrick Brown
D bro wide receiver 11 right now my rankings the the matchup is really good. Like since Week 6 the Titans can't cover perimeter wide receivers 5th most receiving arts per game 2nd most PPR points per ton target. My my only hesitance with Nico is in this game how much does Houston have to throw the ball Because Tennessee is not going to push them. Like if, if Houston gets like two defensive touchdowns like a defensive touchdown and Woody Marks run rumbles for like one or two in the game, the game could just be like forget it. We're going to shove the passing game. We're just bleeding the clock and we're out of here. That's the only worry that I have about Nico Collins. It's not the matchup. It's what is his floor and ceiling versus with volume and what does that look like Because I don't think Tennessee can push them at all.
- [50:18]
Pat Fitz Morris
Fitz feel the same way I have Nico wide receiver 11 I feel like it's kind of an obvious ranking because there's like a tier there. He's at the bottom of that tier. And then I think there's a bit of a drop off to wide receiver 12 after him. And like Debro said there, Tennessee does not have an outside cornerback who can hang with Nico. But I think the Texans would probably love it if they could have Davis Mills throw 25 passes.
- [50:43]
Derrick Brown
Yep.
- [50:44]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, he's 10th in ECR by the way. Waddle, I'm assuming you have ahead of him this. He's, he's right behind him.
- [50:50]
Pat Fitz Morris
I do have Waddle one spot.
- [50:52]
Ryan Wormley
Okay. Yeah, Waddle's 11th so that's the one that is different from you and consensus. But yeah, in that back end of that kind of tier of guys there. I mean, would you dbro just given what we talked about, like, have any consideration like Nico versus Justin Jefferson?
- [51:07]
Derrick Brown
I've got Justin Jefferson one spot ahead of him. And I guess to kind of flip this a little bit. Where. Where are you at on Woody Marks this week, Fitzy? Because I think if we're. We're talking about the air getting taken out of the ball, I. I think this is another big Woody Marks game. And he had 80% of the freaking snaps last week. Like he's the player that I'm like, okay, well if I'm down on Nico.
- [51:29]
Pat Fitz Morris
Pretty freaking high on what he marks running back 21. Just because I'm not sure it's another, you know, six to one ratio with touches and snaps for Woody and Chubb.
- [51:40]
Derrick Brown
I got him at RB18, but I mean, I think the conversation kind of starts around that Chase brown tier, like RB14, 15ish, somewhere in there.
- [51:49]
Ryan Wormley
So let's get to the late afternoon slate. We'll go a bit quicker on these because we went pretty long on the early slate here. 49ers at Cardinals first game up with Marvin Harrison Jr missing the game. Obviously Trey McBride is going to get all of the targets, but there's only so many passes that can be thrown the way of one player. So besides McBride, is there anybody else in this passing game worth considering in fantasy fits? With Marvin Harrison Jr. Out, I have.
- [52:14]
Pat Fitz Morris
Michael Wilson ranked wide receiver 39. There's just nothing to suggest Michael Wilson is actually good 1.09 yards per outrun for his career. That's a really bad number. But would it be a shock if Michael Wilson got 10 or 12 targets this week? Like fantasy pros hasn't projected for 3.8 catches, 46 yards, 8.1-half point PPR fantasy points. I think that's a little conservative just given the likelihood that he sees a target bump. So I think the projection should maybe be closer to ten half point PPR fantasy points. I think he's at least flex worthy.
- [52:49]
Ryan Wormley
Debra.
- [52:50]
Derrick Brown
I don't want to start anybody outside of Trey McBride. I just. And Davitz's point? Yeah, like, I think it's volume that we're talking about with Michael Wilson. The other thing about is like, like San Francisco's past defense has not been good overall. Like they can't pressure the quarterback. They give up a ton to slot wide receivers. I wanted to ride up Greg Dortch, but the problem is, is that, I mean, Arizona kind of plays into the. The 49ers hands here in the sense that like they have the 11th lowest 11 personnel rate. Like they're not going to run out like a slot receiver a ton. And to Wilson, like the matchup's just not great man. Like since Week 6 49ers 13 fewest PPR points per target to outside wide receivers 6 fewest receiving yards per game I'm with Vitzeon that he gets a volume bump, but also I'm with Fitzy on that. I don't think he's very good so I don't know if he does anything with it.
- [53:38]
Ryan Wormley
If you want a chance to win a Justin Jefferson signed Vikings jersey for free courtesy of our friends@pristineauction.com all you need to do is head to fantasyprose.com contest, complete the form and either download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on x Instagram or TikTok at Fantasy Prosecutor. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. We will be announcing a winner on the podcast near the beginning of next month. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up. And to claim your prize, let's go to the Game of the Week here. Seahawks at Rams this game absolutely rips. It's featuring the top two teams and a lot of folks power rankings this week. So rather than come up with a question, I just want to kind of preview this one in general because I think we're all just really excited to watch this game. Rams are favored by three at home on Hard Rock Bet. That's actually as of the last time I looked. I'll double check and see if that's moved at all. But last time I checked they were favored by three at home on Hard Rock Bet with the line at 48 and a half. So which sides do you guys like for this one from the betting purposes? De Bro, I'll start with you.
- [54:36]
Derrick Brown
I actually want to take the under on this total. I Both of these defenses are really good. Both of these offenses play slow. That gives you so many outs. Like we're yes, we can make a really good narrative like okay, both these offenses are good. Seattle's passing offense has been hyper efficient. Does that regress and does that happen this week? Their running offense has not been able to really get going and find a lot of traction week to week to week. And Stafford's playing obviously like MVP level and I guess my my I'm most interested to see Puka versus the Seattle secondary. Like, they have given up the 11th, 11th fewest schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to both slot and perimeter wide receivers. So I actually want to bet the under in this game, guys.
- [55:24]
Ryan Wormley
Okay. By the way, I did check on Hard Rock. Bet it is still 48 and a half and it is still rams by three at home.
- [55:30]
Derrick Brown
There's so many outs to be under, man.
- [55:32]
Ryan Wormley
What do you think about the just rams minus 3?
- [55:39]
Derrick Brown
I think the Rams can cover that because I worry about Sam Darnold and some of the ghosts of Christmas past kind of popping up this week versus that pass rush.
- [55:47]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, I, I kind of lean the same on the Ram side. I'm iffier on the total. I feel really torn on that. Fitz, how do you see it? It.
- [55:55]
Pat Fitz Morris
I agree with the bro. I like the under. I just think these defenses are both really good. I. I don't see this many points. And like Debro said, the pace is a little slower with these two teams. I think the Seahawks are the best team in the league right now, so I'm. I like getting points with them. And the, the Puka thing, like, are you at all worried for Puka that they're kind of pulling him off the field and using all this 13 personnel with three tight ends on the field at the same time? Like some, some like, yeah, they have used 13 personnel on something like 40% of their offensive snaps over the last four weeks, which is just wild. Yeah. Like they are trying to force opponents into using base defense. And Seattle does not want to play base. No, they want. They don't. They want their base to be a nickel, but they, they can kind of get away with it because Nick Eamonwauri, their rookie safety, like, can do a pretty good impersonation of a linebacker. Just so big and physical. So, like, I really want to see that chess match between McVeigh and McDonald.
- [56:57]
Derrick Brown
To your point, Fitzy, you know, one of my favorite bets of the week, Terence Ferguson. Anytime touchdown, you can get it like +650 to +700 with the matchup. Like, the Rams are rolling three deep with their tight ends. You give me those type of odds on any anytime score and a really good matchup. And he's the explosive element like, like with those tight ends. That's one of my favorite bets of the week.
- [57:20]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, you talked about Seattle being just the best defense in the league. Like, Stafford has been playing quarterback better than anybody the last three weeks. He's been on such a heater that I like, I, I kind of feel like the Rams might be the best team in football just with the way Stafford. Yeah.
- [57:35]
Pat Fitz Morris
Both these teams 25 did.
- [57:36]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, yeah.
- [57:37]
Pat Fitz Morris
The 25 to 2 intercept touchdown interception ratio kind of speaks for itself.
- [57:42]
Ryan Wormley
He's. He's been so, so good for over.
- [57:45]
Derrick Brown
What happened to that back injury where. Where's the back problems that we were so worried about? Like did we get hoodwinked in the. In training camp?
- [57:52]
Ryan Wormley
Oh, man, I'm super excited to watch both sides of the ball of this one. But like yeah, Stafford and McVeigh against the Seattle defense. Mike McDonald, like I am pumped for that. That's going to be an awesome, awesome matchup. Probably a more boring matchup is this next game Ravens at Browns. There were. There wasn't a ton I wanted to hit on here again. Another rematch. Although the last time these two teams faces when Flacco was still the quarterback for the Browns. So it looks a little bit different here. I just want to have you guys ranked the tight ends in this one. Mark Andrews, Harold Fannin Jr. And David and Joku. They're all within a few spots of each other in ECR and half PPR scoring. At least they were when I put the sheet together. I'll check to see what that is updated to. But how do you guys see it? Fitz, I'll start with you. Andrews, Fannin and in Joker. How would you rank those three?
- [58:33]
Pat Fitz Morris
Just a big collection of Matt sort of the.
- [58:36]
Ryan Wormley
The.
- [58:36]
Pat Fitz Morris
The tight end to log jam. Mark Andrews, tight end 13. Harold Fannin, tight end 15. David Najoku, tight end 18.
- [58:45]
Ryan Wormley
Okay, so they're all within. What was that, six spots of each other? Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's in ECR tight end 14 for Andrews, tight end 15 for Fan and joke is a little lower at tight end 20. He did drop a couple spots since putting the sheet together so they kind of view him as Y man out. But you have it in the same order though. Fits Andrew's fan in.
- [59:04]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah.
- [59:05]
Ryan Wormley
And a Joku D wrote, do you have the same order or would you mix it up at all?
- [59:08]
Derrick Brown
I got it mixed up and I'm. I mean I'm low on all these guys but I've got fan and ahead of Andrews. Just Andrew's volatility. If he doesn't score a touchdown, he's basically a nothing burger in the games and fantasy just in general. So you're really banking on a touchdown with him. But I've got Fan in it at tight end 15. I've got Andrew's tight end 17. I buried David and Joku because his route share dropped to 48 last week and he, he wasn't on the injury report. So I mean he's not going to run it like routes at least on like half the drop backs. Like I've got him buried at tight end 26.
- [59:43]
Ryan Wormley
You're obviously not going to sit guys like Lamar and Henry. I would just say like the Cleveland defense is really good at home. The Ravens have lost three of their last four games in Cleveland over the last couple years. Like I am not expecting a very good game by this Ravens offense. Like I think the Cleveland defense is going to play really well. And like, like that game in Week 2. Don't get fooled by that. The Ravens scoring 41 points in that game because that was a lot of short fields from turnovers by Joe Flacco. Now Dylan Gabriel could do the same thing, but I don't expect the Ravens to really move the ball all that well against this Brown defense. I don't think Derek Henry is going to move the ball well. I don't think Lamar Jackson is going to have a great game. I'm kind of fading.
- [60:25]
Derrick Brown
I can I give you a little bit of hope on Derek Henry and this being a really quiet bounce back spot. The Browns run defense taken a step back. Like a pretty sizable step back. Like since week six they've given up the 10th most rushing yards per game. And in the Derek Henry wheelhouse worm, since week six, the Browns have given up the seventh highest explosive run rate. So I think this is a really good, like a sneaky, good bounce back spot for Derek Henry.
- [60:52]
Ryan Wormley
I hope you're right. I like hearing it. Let's go to Chiefs at Broncos. Another really good game in the slate and the late afternoon with J.K. dobbins injured. Where are you guys ranking R.J. harvey? Is this. I think he's kind of the most interesting name to, to talk about in this game. Fitz, I'll start with you and then we'll go to Debra who's been, you know, this huge RJ Harvey believer all season long.
- [61:10]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, I'm at RB23. I don't want to go overboard because we know Sean Payton is not going to give RJ Harvey all of the snaps and touches like Sean Payton always uses multiple running backs. Ask any Saints fan. Ask Debro. That's just how Sean Payton rolls. Tyler Bidet is going to get some work. Jahliel McLaughlin is probably going to get some work. And the Chiefs, not an easy matchup. They have allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to running backs and Kansas City is always pretty tough against the run with Steve Spagnolo calling the shots.
- [61:42]
Ryan Wormley
RJ Harvey is RB24 in ECR. Debro Fitz has him RB23. Does that sound too high, too low or just right?
- [61:48]
Derrick Brown
No, just right. I mean I'm living in the same area code. I think him versus Kamani Vidal was a very interesting conversation this week. I've got RJ at RB21 and this is just like splitting hairs between a bunch of other options. Like I put RJ above Breeze hall in a horrible, horrible matchup this week and I think the saving grace and the out for RJ Harvey is what we've seen him the role him operate like him operating in from pretty much the entire season. That's the passing game to Fitz's point. Yeah Casey, you you're gonna have a hard time running on them. But I think this is a sneaky good matchup for Bo Nix because Casey's past defense has taken a step back over the last few weeks and receiving backs versus Kansas City, they've given up the 11th most receiving yards to running backs in the 8th highest yards per reception. So quietly a decent spot for Bo Nix in the passing game. And if RJ pays off on this ranking for us as an RB2, I do think it's via the the passing game and his touchdown equity in the offense, not really what he does on the ground.
- [62:53]
Ryan Wormley
As of when we're recording, Dobbins still has not gone on ir. If he does end up going on IR and we know that we're gonna get a you know four week Runway with Harvey, where are you guys be ranking him in future weeks? Roughly like matchup agnostic but just in general. Where do you see him with Dobbins like entirely not an option mid range.
- [63:13]
Pat Fitz Morris
20 to 24.
- [63:15]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, I'm like based off of the matchups somewhere in like the first the the 15 to 20 range, 21 range right there.
- [63:23]
Ryan Wormley
We've got two games left. Sunday Night Football Lions at Eagles. Great matchup here. Dan Campbell took over the play calling last week and Jameson Williams immediately had his best game of the season. Do you guys expect that to continue with Campbell running the offense or was it more a result of facing the terrible Washington defense?
- [63:38]
Derrick Brown
D Bro, I think the big game was because of facing the commanders. But to your point about the usage it absolutely changed. Like since week nine only two of his 13 targets have been deep and that's basically JMO is Detroit's case on booty. Christian Watson Name your low volume field stretching high a dot guy, that's who Jameson Williams up until the last two games that's who he's been so if he's going to get more intermediate usage and a bigger share of the target pecking or target chair having an 18% target share over the last two weeks, I'm more on the pro case that this continues but the matchup is horrible. So I I guess more glass half full ish for jmo.
- [64:25]
Ryan Wormley
Okay Fitz, do you have a little more conviction on this one?
- [64:28]
Pat Fitz Morris
I do, I'm pretty optimistic. And Debro hinted at it like he was just running a bunch of go routes with John Morton calling the plays. And I think Dan Campbell recognizes what Jared Goth said. He called Jameson Williams a cheat on crossing routes. Get this, this is from our friends at Fantasy points data. Jameson Williams has seven targets on crossing routes this season. He has caught six of them for 164 yards. That works out to 23.4 yards per target. That's pretty good. So yeah, keep keep running him on crossing routes. And yeah, since the buy Jameson Williams has has been fantastic. Ten catches, 185 yards, two touchdowns in those two games.
- [65:14]
Derrick Brown
That would be a T code for this game on bouncing rap versus Adori Jackson. Oh baby Adore. He's not gonna be able to keep up with him.
- [65:24]
Ryan Wormley
Talking about Jameson Williams, let's kind of transition into our Sunday night prop bet discussion. Each week we're gonna highlight our favorite three and four star props from the prop bet cheat sheet ahead of Sunday Night Football. And Fitz, you want to talk about Jameson Williams for your prop bet this week?
- [65:39]
Pat Fitz Morris
Total on his receiving average 48.5 yards. I like the over and so does the betting pros. Prop bet cheat sheet. That is a three star bet. And you know before the buy Jamo had only averaged I think 41.3 receiving yards a game and had only gone over 48 and a half in two of his seven games. But yes, he's he's gone over in each of the last two weeks. I think the trend continues. I just think he's on a better trajectory now that the usage looks a little different.
- [66:07]
Ryan Wormley
Dbro, you've got a prop on the other side of this one. Yeah.
- [66:09]
Derrick Brown
Devonta Smith, man, three star pop prop on the the cheat sheet over four and half receptions. I just going to lean with the volume for the Eagles wide receiver one here. I mean he's hit the over on this for the last seven games. Detroit since week six, I mean they've been kind of a team that's given up a lot of slot production over the last few years, but since week six, the 11th most receiving yards to opposing slot receivers. So pretty good game incoming for Devonta Smith.
- [66:36]
Ryan Wormley
Those were our top prop bets for Sunday Night Football this week courtesy of Betting Pros. You can check out our NFL Prop Bet cheat sheet@bettingpros.com props premium subscribers have access to our five star prop bet bets, which have a 57% win rate and we're up 88 units through week 10. That's really good. Luckily, we've also got a special offer for everyone to unlock a month of Betting Pros Premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today and use promo code FP1 month at checkout to redeem your offer. Guys, we'll go to Monday Night Football here. Honestly, we'll be pretty quick on this because there's not a ton to talk about with these two teams. It's Cowboys at Raiders. These are two teams with a lot of like very obvious fantasy decisions. So I just want to ask about 2 of the running backs in this game game Ashton Jensen and Javante Williams. Back to back in ECR for the week. So who has the better game on Monday night? Fits.
- [67:21]
Pat Fitz Morris
I'm going to say Javante. He is my choice, largely because of the big disparity in quality between these two offensive lines. The Cowboys rank fifth in the run blocking metric. Adjusted line yards and PFF gives the Dallas offensive line the 11th best run blocking grade. The Raiders are 30 seconds dead last in adjusted line yards, 26th in PFF run blocking grade. I think Dallas gets center Cooper Beebe back from an ankle injury this week. When he's back, the Cowboys have a completely healthy offensive line for the first time all season. Most certainly not the case for the Raiders. Their best offensive lineman, Tackle Colton Miller. He's on IR with an ankle injury. Interior lineman Jackson Powers Johnson just went on IR with an ankle injury. Like Ashton, Jenny Genty is going to be a fantastic player, but he just has not found much running room this season, largely because his O line is in such disrepair.
- [68:17]
Ryan Wormley
D ro, who do you like better? This is the highest total of the week by the way, at 50 points on hard Rock Bet.
- [68:22]
Derrick Brown
I'll echo everything that Fitzy just laid out here. It's offensive lines. The other thing I'll say is just scoring potential. Like if you're talking about a passing game that I believe can consistently move the ball and get into the red zone, like touchdowns, I mean obviously freaking matter. And I think Dallas is going to be in the red zone far more than the Raiders in this game. So I'll take Javante. I I mean he's just having such a resurgence season. Like he's a top seven back for me this week.
- [68:49]
Ryan Wormley
Genty is actually ranked higher now in ECR by two spots that it has changed from when I put the sheet together. He's RB7 Javante, RB9 obviously.
- [68:56]
Derrick Brown
Hi man. As star Javante Disrespect still happening.
- [69:01]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah. All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there for Debro and Fitz. I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Best of luck here in week 11. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasyprose.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and tick tock at Fantasy Pros. And subscribe. Subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [69:51]
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- [70:16]
Ryan Wormley
Warning.
- [70:17]
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- [70:21]
Podcast Host/Announcer
This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, or OSA in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snored loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at. Don't sleep on osa.com this information is provided by Lilly, a medicine company. Okay, only 10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish line, but.
- [71:07]
Ryan Wormley
First.
- [71:20]
Pat Fitz Morris
There the last one.
- [71:23]
Derrick Brown
Enjoy a Coca Cola for a pause that refreshes.
- [71:29]
Podcast Host/Announcer
This is an I Heart podcast.