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The Herd with Colin Cowherd
FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 14 (Ep. 1882)
01:06:17
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- [00:00]
Ryan Warmley
This is an I heart podcast. Guaranteed human. Did you know Tide has been upgraded.
- [00:06]
Pat Fitzmaurice
To provide an even better clean in cold water.
- [00:09]
Ryan Warmley
Tide is specifically designed to fight any stain you throw at it, even in cold butter.
- [00:15]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yep.
- [00:16]
Ryan Warmley
Chocolate ice cream.
- [00:17]
Derrick Brown
Sure thing.
- [00:18]
Ryan Warmley
Barbecue sauce. Tide's got you covered.
- [00:21]
Derrick Brown
You don't need to use warm water.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
Additionally, Tide pods let you confidently fight.
- [00:26]
Derrick Brown
Tough stains with new coldzyme technology.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
Just remember, if it's got to be.
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Ryan Warmley
Clean, it's got to be tied. Hello everybody. Welcome to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan, warmly joined, as I am every Friday morning by Pat Fitzmaurice and by Derrick Brown and we are answering or asking some key questions for week 14. Fellas, this is it. It is the week to make the playoffs. In most leagues we actually have a work league that the playoffs are already beginning this week. There are some leagues where that is the case. I do not like it. It is not would not have been my vote if I was commissioner. But for most leagues, this is the week to to clinch up those spots and we're here to help everybody do so. There are people who, you know, you're already in and it's just about seeding. Maybe you've already clinched a buy. If that's you, I appreciate you still listening and just kind of previewing the weekend with us. Anyway, for those who are trying to lock up those playoff spots, you know, let's do it. We'll jump right in here. There are four teams on by Panthers, Giants, Patriots and Niners. Patriots obviously have provided some fancy goodness for us this year, more than expected and there's some stars on those other teams as well. So we're missing players. We'll try to fill those spots here. All of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers, by the way, can be found@fantasypros.com rankings before we get into the preview, I do want to ask you guys about a very high scoring Thursday night game. Lions 44, Cowboys 30. We can go quickly. I did not watch this game though. I had other stuff going on last night. So um, it was frustrating to sit down and see Jameer Gibbs scored three touchdowns when he is one of the reasons I got eliminated from my guillotine league a week ago because he didn't have the greatest game. It would have been nice if these three touchdowns came this week but obviously like a very good game for the Lions offense and a good game for the Cowboys offense it appears here. Dbro, what was your takeaway here and how would you describe the game to somebody who didn't watch.
- [02:16]
Derrick Brown
So this game started off slow at the gate. I thought this was going to like hit the under and be more of a defensive game. If you just watch like the first like quarter, maybe two quarters and turned it off like you were like, oh, this is hitting the under. And then the second half was just, just fireworks, man. Both offenses came alive. You know, Detroit just kept piling it on. There were some interesting calls. The refs kind of fumbled the bag in multiple different spots yet again, which was. It's always a fun time, especially on island games. But overall man, it's just the Lions look like again one of the best offenses in the NFL. And Amon Ross, St. Brown. I mean dude, we talked about it in slack Fitzy before the game kicked off and I'm like okay, he's playing. I'm trying to figure out where the heck to rank him and Jameson Williams and both of them had solid games but not like amazing games.
- [03:09]
Ryan Warmley
Fifth.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, we talked about Amon Ra on the waiver show and someone might have suggested that guys usually play off low ankle sprains. Never on high the next week, but often on low. And that was the case with Amon Ross. I wasn't totally stunned. We did see him. Pretty good game. He didn't look like he was compromised in any way. Yeah, it was. We, we got the track meets that the Vegas Total of 54 and a half suggested. I was very tempted to bet it under just because there are so many ways that a total that high can be short circuited just. And we kind of got those early on with couple of drives ending in field goals, you know, just. Anyway, it was, it was a fun game but yeah, and pretty consequential game considering that. I think whoever lost that game is going to have a real uphill struggle to try to make the playoffs and now Dallas has probably got to win out to get in.
- [04:05]
Derrick Brown
Also I do want to bring up man, that the concussion to CD Lamb. If you've not seen the video, don't watch it. It was, it was horrible to see and I again we're talking about the, the first week of the fantasy playoffs. I, I don't know if he's going to be available. It was that bad.
- [04:22]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Okay.
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Ryan Warmley
I didn't know he got. I was totally like just not watching.
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Derrick Brown
It all and it was, it was, it was not pretty, ma'.
- [04:28]
Ryan Warmley
Am.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
He has the extra three days because of the Thursday night game. So you hope maybe that can help him clear a concussion protocol. But yeah, if you are a CD lam investor, you probably should make alternative plans.
- [04:40]
Ryan Warmley
That's tough. By the way, I'm looking here in the box score. Brandon Aubrey had field goals from 57, 55, 63. Like also 42 and 29. Just a huge day for him, it appears.
- [04:53]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I made them all look easy. Get the guy inside and he's just a machine.
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Ryan Warmley
Three for 55 pluses.
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Derrick Brown
The 57 yarder looked like he barely even tried, like he just kicked in. He's goes. I was like, I watched a lot.
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Ryan Warmley
Of good kicking during Justin Tucker's tenure and I feel like Aubrey is just like that next evolution of that where it's just looks. He makes it look easy from very, very far away. So impressive by him. Guys, let's get into the early slate here. Like I said, we have four teams on by, so a couple fewer games than usual. First game on the slate, Seahawks at Falcons. I'm gonna bring back. You might remember last time we talked, I gave you kind of a guy a fake million dollar offer. If I offered you a million dollars, you had to get it right. Troy Franklin or Cortland Sutton. I don't actually think you guys did get it right, although I don't remember for sure. But we're bringing it back.
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Derrick Brown
I would have been poor.
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Ryan Warmley
Okay, if I told you you would win a million dollars. If you correctly pick who scores more fantasy points this week between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, who would you pick? Debro. I think we all agree Kenneth Walker is the better player. Charbonnet continues to often get the goal line opportunities going up against the bad Falcons team. So if I gave you a million dollars, who would you pick, Walker or Charbonnet?
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Derrick Brown
I think at this point, considering these questions, I'm, I'm just not meant to have generational wealth. So I'm just going to lean into that further and I'm just going to keep picking Kenneth Walker. Man, like the backfield's moved in his directions, but good lord, the guy can't buy a freaking touchdown. It doesn't matter. Like snap count goes up, he gets more snaps in the red zone, he out carries Charbonnet. Charbonnet still gets the touchdowns at. I'll pick Kenneth Walker. I know I'm probably going down with the Titanic with that, but I'll just lean on that. He's getting more of the backfield.
- [06:37]
Ryan Warmley
Fits that.
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Derrick Brown
My bank account.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I went and looked back at how these guys have done against each other who scored more over the game. So there was one game Charbonnet missed early in the season in the other 11 games using half point PPR scoring, Charbonnet outscored Walker five times. Walker outscored Charbonnet five times. They tied once, so handicapping this one is pretty tough. Like Dbro, I'm going to go with Walker because he gets more opportunities. Since the start of November, which is the last five games for the Seahawks, Walker's played more than half the offensive snaps in all but one of those games. Charbonnet has played just under 40% of the offensive snaps in all but one of those games. Walker's averaged 50, 15.4 touches a game over that span. Charbonnet 10.8 with only three catches. But obviously it's, it's the touchdowns that make this a tough call. Walker has four on the season, just one over his last five games. Charbonnet has eight on the season, three over his last five games. So I'd rather bet on more predictable things. Snaps, carries, catches. Touchdowns are unpredictable. I'm convinced that's why people like PBR scoring. Not because they feel the need to balance out running backs and receivers. I'm not sure PPR really accomplishes that. Anyway, PPR scoring is just a way to dilute the variance of touchdowns. And touchdown scoring, like adding a point per reception means points from touchdowns account for a smaller percentage of total fantasy points than we get in standard scoring leagues. And I think that appeals to a lot of people. I think a lot of people prefer a game where the vagaries of touchdown scoring means a little bit less.
- [08:19]
Ryan Warmley
That's interesting. I, I've been totally converted, by the way, to half ppr, half point for first downs. That's kind of like my favorite version of that to play in as a scoring format. It's interesting, like you just talked about how this has basically been split down the middle fits between these two. And yet in the consensus rankings, Kenneth Walker is RB17, Charbonnet's RB31. So they're not being ranked as if this is a toss up.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I'm closer to the touchdowns, right? But I'm, I'm closer between those two. I think I'm above on Charbonnet and below on Walker.
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Derrick Brown
Yeah, where are they at again?
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Ryan Warmley
Worms and 31.
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Derrick Brown
I've got Walker at 18 and I've got Charbonnet. I've got him at 31, but I think the conversation for him starts somewhere around like 25.
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Ryan Warmley
And by the way, those numbers are with like Gibbs, Montgomery, Javante. Like with those guys removed, you can bump them up a few spots.
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But yeah, I mean, I, I, I Find I. I roster both of these guys in a league together, and I find myself just like, constantly frustrated at which one I started.
- [09:27]
All right, we can go to Steelers at Ravens here. Will Lamar Jackson and the offense finally get going this week against a bad Pittsburgh defense? Or will his past Steelers troubles rear their ugly head again and continue his recent slump? Fitz, I'll start with you.
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Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, the easy answer is I don't know. But I'm. I'm not benching Lamar and I've got him at QB8 and maybe that's even below consensus.
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Ryan Warmley
But quickly, it is aligned with consensus. He's exactly QB8.
- [09:57]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah. And I, I get it. So he's been dealing with this ankle injury and just hasn't been himself. He's gone three straight games without a touchdown pass, hasn't run for a touchdown since week one, which is kind of crazy. And is QB31 in fantasy points per game over the last four weeks. Not very Lamar Jackson, like, and you said a worm. The Steelers have historically given him trouble. In eight career starts against Pittsburgh, Jackson has averaged 160.5 passing yards a game, eight TD passes, nine interceptions, and he has never had a rushing touchdown against the Steelers, which is kind of crazy. So things are kind of stacked against him a little bit here. But on the other hand, would it shock you if lamar had a 25 or 30 point game? It would never shock me for Lamar to go off.
- [10:41]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, it wouldn't shock me. It would surprise me. My, My view on this game before I toss to Debro is I am. I think it's more likely that this is the game where the Ravens rushing attack gets going than it is the game where Lamar gets going. Those do go somewhat hand in hand a lot of the time. But Tomlin does, you know, historically, he does a really good job against rushing quarterbacks and limiting their rushing. So, like, I don't expect, you know, a rushing touchdown from Lamar or anything like that. That's not really how they use him anyway. The thing that has been so limiting for him, in my opinion, is less his ability to run and more his ability to evade pass rushers in the pocket. And it's such a bad offensive line right now that he's not able to kind of hide those warts the way he usually does, which has led to, obviously, this. This is an extended version of the slump. You would expect even a slumping Lamar to be better than he has been. Dibra, how do you see this playing out? Do you think this is a game where Lamar and the offense As a whole, you know, Derek Henry, whoever it might be, can kind of finally bounce back. It didn't happen against the bad Bengals defense. Can it happen against the bad Pittsburgh defense?
- [11:45]
Derrick Brown
I'll say this, I won't be shocked if it happens, but I'm not projecting it that way. I just. And to further add to Fitzy's points, Lamar has not cleared 40 rushing yards in a game since Week 4 against the freaking Chiefs. And he's only done that twice this entire season since throw over four passing touchdowns against the Dolphins a week nine. He has one passing touchdown. And yes, we could talk about all the touchdowns that would be, could be and should be about fumbles and all things in between. It doesn't matter because they didn't happen. You look at the, the last four games, QB15, QB29, QB25, QB27 and weekly scoring. Even if we want to parse this out and say, okay, well, he's not going to run, all right, fine, he's not going to run because he hasn't been running all freaking year. What has he been doing as a passer since week 10amongst 35 qualifying passers, Lamar Jackson, 35th, so dead last in highly accurate throw rate and 29th and catchable target rate. So he hasn't been running. He doesn't get rushing production versus the Steelers. And when he's throwing the ball, he hasn't been good. No, I don't think this is going to be the bounce back. And the other thing about this is the Steelers are playing better defense, man, like so since week nine, this past defense has come alive. They've allowed the seventh fewest yards per attempt and the eighth lowest success rate per drop rack.
- [13:04]
Ryan Warmley
And so the run defense, though, I mean, coming off that Bills game.
- [13:09]
Derrick Brown
Oh yeah, but the Bills have been doing that. I mean like everybody, the Bills just been rushing it down everybody's throat. So that, that's not incredibly surprising. And I don't know if the Ravens, to your point, Worm, do they have the offensive line right now to impose their will on the ground if they want to?
- [13:25]
Ryan Warmley
Well, I was going to say that the Lamar. The best two games Lamar has played against the Steelers in his career are the two most recent. It was the second game last regular season and the playoff game last year. But those were also largely driven by Derrick Henry. Lamar was just, he had, he had those usual like really efficient games where he was really good, but he didn't do much. It was a lot of the running game kind of opening, opening things up. I will say too. Before we move off this, that like, it's not dbro. I'll correct you. It's not that Lamar's not running. It's that he's not running well. He's, he has, he's, you know, his last five games, he's run five, nine, four, seven and six rush attempts. If you look at the first month.
- [14:02]
Derrick Brown
Of the season, 5, 7, 6. That's not a normal Lamar game. Like.
- [14:05]
Ryan Warmley
Well, it has been this season. I'm saying when he was running better in the first month of the season, he was running six times. Seven times. Six times. He was just way more efficient at it. So you're right. Compared to his career, it's less. But compared to earlier the season before the injury, it's about the same. It's just not good getting anywhere. He doesn't have the ability to accelerate and get and, or at least, you know, or evade guys really, I think is the big thing. So I'm kind of with you. I, I lean towards this not being the bounce back for Lamar. Fitz said he's ranked QB8. Where is he ranked for you? Deeper. Are you considering not starting him if you have him?
- [14:35]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, I mean, I'm considering it. Like, I mean, do I do in most aspects of my setting Lamar Jackson? No. But it depends on your freaking options, man. Like right now I've got him at QB9. So like there's some teams out there and this is, this is a real conundrum. There are some teams out there that could possibly have Lamar Jackson and picked up Joe Burrow off the waiver wire and it's like, who are you starting?
- [14:58]
Ryan Warmley
This is me. Yes.
- [15:00]
Derrick Brown
And I, I think it should be Joe Burrow. The matchup is, is tougher and stuff like that. Maybe you want to like balance it. Okay. Does T. Higgins play or not? But I just don't know in this iteration of Lamar Jackson and watch like he goes out and scores four touchdowns and makes me like eat all of this. But that doesn't mean that the process is wrong, that he has been playing terribly.
- [15:20]
Ryan Warmley
Guys, let's get Titans at Browns out of the way. Both these teams think. I don't want to talk about this game. If I forced you to watch every second of this game, what players or matchups would you most want to be paying attention to? What intrigues you the most about this matchup? If I made you pick something, Fitz, you'll go first here.
- [15:37]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, the quarterbacks.
- [15:40]
In the pre draft season, the run up to the draft, Debro and I actually preferred Chadour to Cam Ward. I think we both liked his accuracy, his field reading, the way he threw with anticipation, throwing to a spot instead of needing to wait for a receiver to break open. He had some of those traits that successful NFL quarterbacks tend to have, and I don't know if I'd make the same choice now. But we are still trying to figure out what Chidor can be. And you know, his first two starts haven't been terrible. After that disastrous relief appearance he made after Dylan Gabriel was concussed against the Ravens a few weeks ago, we're still just trying to figure out, you know, does Shador have a future as a starter or is he going to be a backup? And I think we're still trying to figure out how good Cam Ward can be. Like the fantasy results have been bad. He's been pretty much unusable. But the kid was dealt a really bad hand. Like not a good group of pass catchers in Tennessee. Not a very good offensive line, not a great system. We've seen flashes though. We've seen the arm talent, we've seen the mobility and the ability to kind of manufacture plays a la Caleb Williams. Off script. But you know, as ugly as this game is going to be, it'll be sort of fun to see Cam Warden, shadow or Sanders go head to head and see who can make more plays.
- [17:00]
Derrick Brown
Debra yeah, I mean I'm with Fitzy on this one. The off season videos of both of them training together and everybody's takes were honestly hilarious, both now and then, you know, in the future. But I, I think for me it's watching Shadur Sanders and seeing what he does versus his defense and I'll even throw in because I think he's an interesting flex play this week. I know that a lot of people are not going to have the light on. I get it, it's scary. But I'm very interested in Jerry Judy in this game. And part of this go does go back to Shooter Sanders because his hyper aggressiveness, like he's eighth in deep ball throw rate over the last two weeks. So he's trying to push the ball down the field and if he connects on any of those throws versus this freaking terrible Tennessee secondary, Jerry Judy could have a big game, man, like last two weeks. Yeah, like he's only got like a 15 target share but he does lead the team in three deep targets. So if Shador can light up the secondary, can show promise, can play good. And I know that's a lot of ifs, ands and buts with that if he can do those things. Jerry, Judy probably has a good day here.
- [18:04]
Ryan Warmley
Where are you ranking Judy?
- [18:06]
Derrick Brown
Oh, I've got Judy. Where's he at in ecr Worm? Because I'm sure. Yeah, I'm sure I'm ahead of that. I've got Judy right now at. I've got him at wide receiver 40. I've got to get him in that like John Mechi, Darno Mooney kind of tier.
- [18:22]
Ryan Warmley
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- [20:40]
Pat Fitzmaurice
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- [21:27]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah.
- [21:29]
Pat Fitzmaurice
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- [21:58]
Ryan Warmley
Next game here guys. Colts at Jaguars Big game in the AFC South. Colts have scored 20 or fewer points in three of their past four games. It's kind of been highlighted by Jonathan Taylor only finishing higher than RB19 once in that span. Not that our RB19 is terrible, but obviously it's not the level you expect from the season Jonathan Taylor's having. So has the clock struck midnight on the surprising offense or D row? Do you expect a strong performance in Jacksonville?
- [22:24]
Derrick Brown
It depends on how we're going to contextualize strong. I think that they can have a good game here. Specifically highlighting, I don't think JT has like a monster game. The Jacksonville like the strength of that defense has been the defense. Where you can get at this defense is through the air. Now the problem with Daniel Jones is he's playing on one and a half legs and his mobility is nothing. So if they can heat him up, if they can blitz him and stuff like that, he can crumble. And dear Lord.
- [22:52]
Heaven help if we see Riley Leonard at any point in that game because then it just all falls apart. But if Daniel Jones can get the ball out, I think that one Michael Pittman Jr. Can have a bounce back game. I know a lot of people like we're all in Alec Pierce train and stuff. But a lot of that has been very, very coverage sensitive. I think a lot of that way the Colts have designed this passing attack is giving Daniel Jones really clear answers to the test on a snap to snap basis and part of that is reading the coverages and against too high like Pittman has been the guy he has been had a 22.5 target share, 28 first reach here against too high. So I think this is a big game for Michael Pittman Jr. At least an opportunity for a big one and another opportunity for a big game from Tyler Warren like because Jacksonville has been horrible versus tight end. So if both of those guys with short throws and making stuff happen and getting the ball out of Daniel Jones's hands quickly, if that can happen, yeah, the Dolphin the passing offense can look a lot better. But I'm not saying like a big day on the ground From JT Fitz.
- [23:51]
Ryan Warmley
We talked a little bit on the Thursday show with Jake about how the NFL has done this with a lot of teams this year where two divisional opponents you get to week 14, it's December, they still haven't played. Raven Steelers, this is the first time they're playing. Bears, packers, it's the first time they're playing. This is another one the Colts and Jags have not played yet this year. So what do you expect from the first matchup from these two?
- [24:11]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I I do think Daniel Jones fibular fracture is kind of a problem for the Colts offense. Maybe it's less of a problem than I think and I I shouldn't be fading Jones and the indie pass catchers to the extent that I am, but I'm below ECR on pretty much all of them except for Tyler Warren because as Debro said, the Jaguars are not especially good against tight ends. But Jones isn't really running anymore. He's not throwing as much. I think they're maybe trying to protect him a little bit by tamping down the passing volume a little bit. His passing yardage is down over the last two weeks. I think the Colts might have to lean more heavily on Jonathan Taylor, but we'll see how that goes because we like heavy volume for Taylor, but after averaging 6 yards of carry over his first 10 games, he's averaged 3.9 yards per carry over his last two. Now granted those were tough matchup matchups against the Chiefs and Texans, but the Jaguars are a pretty tough matchup for running backs too. Their defense is better against the run than it is against the pass. The Jags have allowed A league low 764 rushing yards to running backs and only four touchdown runs to running backs this season.
- [25:20]
Ryan Warmley
Just quickly before we move off this game, Brian Thomas Jr. He's wide receiver 30. Where is he ranked for you guys? Because I mean obviously he's been such a disappointment this year, but with four teams on by, you know, see somebody that you are willing to in a pinch start him like if you're trying to clinch up a playoff spot here or is it just too risky like you're getting away as wide receiver 30, he's ranked it in area where he could be a flex for you. Fitz, where is he ranked for you?
- [25:41]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm right online. Wide receiver 30 in ECR debro, I.
- [25:47]
Derrick Brown
Got him at wide receiver 36. Like I, I don't want to start him unless I absolutely have to. I, I'll, I'll Fitzy on the spot. Brian Thomas Jr. A.D. mitchell, this week I'm team A.D. where you at?
- [26:00]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I need, I think it's close.
- [26:01]
Derrick Brown
I think a lot of people are going to have this decision.
- [26:03]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I need to change this. Like I.
- [26:06]
Right now I have BTJ ranked higher. But like if I was faced with that decision, I think I probably, if I'm being honest with myself, I would start A.D. mitchell. So I need to.
- [26:17]
Derrick Brown
Yeah.
- [26:17]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Reflect that with my rankings.
- [26:19]
Ryan Warmley
Mitchell is one spot ahead in consensus, one spot behind Thomas and consensus is Roma Dunze. Who would you start between those two?
- [26:27]
Oh.
- [26:29]
Derrick Brown
I've start roam and just like, just hope and pray Caleb can look like a semi competent passer. I've got Rome ranked wide receiver 31, so it's, it's not pretty.
- [26:42]
Ryan Warmley
All right, let's go to commanders at Vikings. This one's simple. I want you to rank the running backs you'd be willing to start in this game. Fitz, we talked a little bit about Chris Rodriguez yesterday. Obviously the Vikings backfield here. So who are the guys you're willing to start and where are they ranked for you in this game?
- [26:56]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Aaron Jones, running back 27. Chris Rodriguez, running back 28. Jordan Mason, running back 33. And you know McNichols and Jakory Crosby, Merritt are like outside running back four range. So like not considerations.
- [27:14]
The commanders haven't been that tough a matchup for running backs. But Aaron Jones, I mean, does he make it through the game with the shoulder injury that he's been dealing with? Which is why the gap between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason isn't all that great. And Chris Rodriguez, we've talked about this. He's only had one game with more than 12 carries and he's caught one pass all year. So if he does not fall into the end zone, you're probably getting a dud game from him. And I, I am not playing Chris Rodriguez under. I don't even want to roster him in ppr. I just think he's unplayable in PPR because of his complete lack of pass catching.
- [27:50]
Ryan Warmley
He is ranked highest of the three in ECR at RB27. Mason is actually second fits at RB28, right behind him. Jones is down at RB33 in ECR. I think some people, some injury question mark.
- [28:02]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, I think people think that he's not going to play.
- [28:04]
Pat Fitzmaurice
That's why.
- [28:05]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, yeah, just throwing that out there. Dbro, what is your ranking? We just focus on those three guys. We don't need to discuss anybody.
- [28:12]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, I mean for me it's whoever is going to be the Vikings starter. If Aaron Jones plays, I'm playing Aaron Jones. If Aaron Jones is out, I'm playing Jordan Mason. Aaron Jones is in. I don't want anything to do with Jordan Mason. So right now I've got Aaron Jones at RB25. But there's so much that we still need news on like Aarian Hampton and Alvin Kamara and all these other guys. So like, I think anywhere from like low end RB2 to high end RB3 is appropriate. And we still need news on Aaron Jones. Chris Rodriguez. I've got an RB30 and Fitzy framed it perfectly. Like he's been in that, that Bam night kind of area code for me where he's going to get 12 to 15 opportunities if he doesn't freaking score a touchdown. You're going to hate life and wish you started him. If he scores a touchdown, then cool, he's an RB3 or maybe a low end RB2, depending on how the week shifts out.
- [29:03]
Ryan Warmley
I, I think I like Chris. Well, I know I don't like Chris Rodriguez better than you guys, but I, I feel I, I wonder if there's a chance that he does. Like I do think he will score a touchdown, I guess is the way I'd put it. Like I. So I'm kind of more willing to start him in this one then he's.
- [29:17]
Derrick Brown
Gonna get you probably like anywhere between 10 to 12 points.
- [29:22]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, it's not as like a ceiling play, but as a, I mean again there are four teams on by this week, so yeah, he can get you the 12 points.
- [29:30]
Derrick Brown
You're happy as hell with that and you just move on. But if he doesn't, he's getting you five or six points and you're wishing you didn't play him.
- [29:37]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, we just talked about AD Mitchell. So let's go to Dolphins at Jets. Is AD and I Mitchell a thing coming off of a game with eight catches, 102 yards and a touch on 12 targets? Or will we look back on week 13 as kind of a flash in the pan for him? Is his consensus ranking and by the way, when I made the sheet it was wide receiver 32. It's jumped up to wide receiver 29 as I mentioned, so that's gone up. So is his consensus ranking of wide receiver 29 too high, too low or just right fits?
- [30:04]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I guess it's just right since I a second ago bumped him ahead of BTJ, I've now got him at wide receiver 30.
- [30:13]
But who knows, man? Like, it could be way too high or way too low or just right. But I do know that since joining the jets, AD Mitchell is getting something like a 30% target share and a 60% air yard share. And he's 6 foot 2 and 205 pounds with 4.35 speed. So it would be pretty foolish not to be intrigued by this guy. Like the usage and athletic profile are just so attractive. But you know, the Colts had him for a year and a half and had no problem throwing him into the sauce gardener trade. And before the big game last week, Mitchell had caught three of 13 targets in his first two games with the Jets. So it's really hard to tell where this ride is going, but I can't wait to find out.
- [31:01]
Ryan Warmley
Dever? I can't really remember. I seem to recall liking Mitchell better than you. Like coming into the NFL as a prospect. You were, you were lower on him, right?
- [31:11]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, I was lower on him. I think he needed a lot that he needed to clean up with his route running and separation. And you know, there was a lot of things like I felt like, you know, when we get to this time, or at least prospect time of the year, a lot of the big and fast kind of covers up some warts for players and stuff. So I was lower on him than consensus. But dude, I mean I'm, I think the ranking for him this week I've got him at wide receiver 28 I think is appropriate. And I think the problem with him is.
- [31:39]
It'S volatile. I think, I think honestly the more I think about A.D. mitchell this week, it's like I feel like in rankings I need to make a stand. I either need to fade him or go all in because either embrace the volatility and the volume that he's going to get because the reality is he's probably going to end up as like a top 15 wide receiver or outside the top 40. One of those things is probably going to happen with his volatility. He's getting so much freaking volume. Like to fit this point since week 11, 28.4 target share 61.4 arear chair, a 41 first reach. Here he is their passing offense, basically. So in a good matchup, I mean, because the Dolphins since week nine, ninth most PPR points per target. The perimeter wide receivers.
- [32:25]
I'm just gonna stand on process and say he hits. So I'm probably going to move him up even further in the rankings. Like, once we get other news about, like, is Justin Herbert playing? Is he not playing other guys that are on the fence, like, what happens with Marvin Harrison Jr. And other guys? Like, I'm probably going to bump AD up a little bit more and take a more positive stand with him in rankings because again, the volatility is there. But dude, it's, it's like I kind of feel like it's a binary decision. Either we're in on him or you're not in on him. And if he booms, he's Probably a top 20 wide receiver for the week.
- [32:57]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Worm, you and I do the the Dynasty show with Scott Bogman, who's a big University of Texas fan. And didn't you get the, the, the feeling that Bog Bogman didn't know what to make of AD Mitchell coming out of college? Like, I think he wanted to like him, but was also sort of perplexed by what he saw from him at, you know, in college. Like, he's just, he is kind of a boom bust weekly guy. I think he might always be that, but the upside is just so intriguing. Like, if this guy can ever put it together and the light totally comes on, look out like there is, it is.
- [33:34]
Ryan Warmley
It is worth noting he has never played with an accurate quarterback. And like, for like, I, I don't think that is. We can put all the blame for his, you know, lack of production on the offenses he's in. Like, obviously he like, to Debra's point about like needing to improve as a route runner, like, there was stuff he needed to work on too. But like, it is worth noting that he like, played, you know, has not played with a good quarterback.
- [33:56]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Quinn yours. You're not, you're not calling Quinn Ewers ewers in college.
- [34:01]
Ryan Warmley
You know, don't speak bad about Quinn.
- [34:03]
Derrick Brown
Yours Bogman's probably hearing that somewhere out.
- [34:05]
Ryan Warmley
In the.
- [34:07]
It'S Raven Steelers week, so I hope Bman is hearing me talk trash about his team. But yeah, Quinn, yours. You know Anthony Richardson, you know I know Daniel Jones had a good start to the year, but obviously there's a lot of malice to feed in Indianapolis and and then you know Justin Fields like, like he hasn't had a great quarterback to be paired with. So worth noting.
- [34:28]
Derrick Brown
One last thing point on A.D. mitchell. I think what the Colts drafted him. They weren't expecting Alec Pierce to take the next step and be the guy that he's become over the last two seasons. Like you don't make that draft pick to because you have faith in Alec Pierce and Alec Pierce balling out over the last two years and again another guy that came into the NFL with crazy physical tools but needing to round a lot of other parts of his game. And since he's done that, that's what's kept AD Mitchell off the field. And you know, maybe it's a combination of other things. AD had to improve too, but also this is also an Alec Pierce conversation.
- [35:04]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, it's a good point. You can let Autopilot manage your fantasy football lineup automatically so you never have to worry about last minute changes, auto swap inactive players and ensure your lineup is always optimized even when you can't be online. Take control with the flexibility to approve lineup changes via email or let Autopilot handle everything. Stay ahead with my Playbook Autopilot available now for Fantasy Pros Premium subscribers@FantasyPros.com MyPlayBook or on the Fantasy Pros app. Next game on the early slate here guys. Saints at Buccaneers Emeka Igbuka has finished outside the top 40 wide receivers in three straight weeks and if you take out his big game against the Patriots, his average finish in the last six games is wide receiver 4. 49. Yet he is still being ranked inside the consensus top 15 wide receivers for the week. Debra, I want to start with you. Fitz and I talked a bit about this yesterday with Jake, so I want to get your opinion here first and then we'll go back to Fitz on this. Where are you ranking Emeka Buka? What do you think about his ranking inside the top 15?
- [36:02]
Derrick Brown
I think it's too high. I mean I've got him at wide receiver 20 and I'm going to drop him further. Like basically I left all that. I'm going to revisit all that today and on Saturday for the primer because we need Mike Evans news That's what I think about this. We need Mike Evans news and I want to be very clear about how I'm contextualizing this. Mike Evans did not go out with a hamstring injury. Mike Evans did not go out with a knee or any other joint or soft tissue and stuff like that. If Mike Evans is medically cleared and he has been, this comes down to a conditioning standpoint type of thing where if Mike Evans is active this week, I think he's going to play close to his normal role. Now, I'm not saying 80 to 90% of snapshots, but can he play 65 to 70% and have like a 75% route share? Definitively possible. So from a conditioning standpoint, if Mike Evans plays, I think it means bad things for Mecca Ibuka and it's going to. I mean, I'm going to drop him further in the rankings because when Evans is on the field, he's there. He's their wide receiver one. So my Ameca Buka thoughts and feelings are really tied to Mike Evans. So we need that news. But I mean, I'm not going to move him up the ranks.
- [37:12]
Ryan Warmley
We. Before I toss it fits, I want to get your opinion on this. We did a head to head Ibuka vs Justin Jefferson debro yesterday with Jake. Who would you take between those two?
- [37:20]
Derrick Brown
I'm taking Jefferson.
- [37:21]
Ryan Warmley
Okay. They're back to back in ecr. Fitz, you've had a day to think about it further from when we talked about it with Jake. How are you feeling about Ibuka today?
- [37:29]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, still good. And I've got him at wide receiver 14. And yeah, I know some of the recent results have been bad, although I did disagree with any framing where you're like, well, if you take out the huge game against the Patriots, you know, if we.
- [37:44]
Ryan Warmley
The point is that it's only been one good game in the last, you know, seven. So if you take that out, it's like six of the last seven have been like, really? Really.
- [37:51]
Derrick Brown
It's also a Baker conversation.
- [37:53]
Ryan Warmley
I know that that game still counts.
- [37:55]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Very much a Baker conversation. I mean, he has not averaged 7 yards per pass attempt in any game since Week 6. That's kind of crazy.
- [38:03]
Derrick Brown
That's also Baker doesn't have weapons conversation too. Like this offense has been bad because everybody's been fricking hurt too.
- [38:08]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean, Book has been the one. Although he kind of played through a hamstring injury for a while. So I totally get the hesitation on Ibuka, but for me it's largely about the Target volume. He's averaging 8.4 targets a game this season, 9.8 targets a game over his last six games. So I know it's not just about the target counts. And, and again, I mean, I think Abuka's recent slump is probably more about Baker Mayfield than it is about Abuka himself. But even with this recent slump, Abuka is still on pace for 11:21 yards and averaging 15.2 yards per catch. So I still think he's really, really good and I want to keep playing him.
- [38:52]
Derrick Brown
So what do you think about the Evans conversation? Like, do you think he plays and is he going to play close to a similar role if he does? What do you think? I mean, does that move you on a book at all?
- [39:02]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, yeah. I mean, I'm doing this tentatively. I do not have Mike Evans ranked as of now. And we'll see if he plays this week or if they give him like one ramp up week because they just, they opened his window this week, right?
- [39:15]
Derrick Brown
Yeah.
- [39:15]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Guys typically don't come back the first week that their window is open. Like I think that happens well under 50% of the time. So I'm kind of thinking Evans doesn't play. Wouldn't shock me if he did. And then obviously I'll have to move a book down and I'll probably not have him inside the top 20.
- [39:32]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, I'll probably have both of the guys as like wide receiver twos if once we get the Evans news. So I'm, I'm kind of like shading Igbuka down with the idea. But like say Evans, say Evans is held out, then Igbuka is probably going to bump up a little bit for me. Like probably like wide receiver. 16ish.
- [39:52]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah.
- [39:52]
Pat Fitzmaurice
And the other thing, don't Debro. You know the Saints who the, the Buccaneers are going against, they kind of get bashed in the slot. Right. Or, or no, they're good or are they good against.
- [40:01]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, they're better.
- [40:02]
Pat Fitzmaurice
They're better than the slot. So they kind of get bashed by outside receivers and like they're no cornerback matchups to fear here. Kool Aid McKinstry is not fine. But like he's, he's not, they're not playing good. Yeah. So I don't dislike anything about the matchup. I think it's more of a plus than a minus.
- [40:21]
So even even if Evans does come back, I think in most 12 team leagues, at least the ones where you start three receivers, I think a Buga is still in the, the starter realm.
- [40:32]
Derrick Brown
Yep.
- [40:32]
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, if Evans is back. Would you rather start at Buka or Zay Flowers?
- [40:37]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, man, that's tough. Probably. Probably still a Buka.
- [40:41]
Derrick Brown
I'm playing a Buka. I have him ranked one spot above Zay. And this is just more. Again, going back to that. To me, that's more of a Lamar Jackson take for me. I just. I don't. And again, I feel like I'm having the same conversation, guys. Like, we. We can rewind to a few weeks ago when I was like, man, you know what? Josh Allen's really been struggling as a pastor. And then he goes out and makes me freaking eat it the next week. And I'm. I feel like we're having the same kind of conversation with Lamar Jackson, but I have even less faith, Lamar, because the. The. All the peripheral numbers have been God, awesome.
- [41:12]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Actually, you know what? I'm gonna. I'm gonna reverse course on that. I would start say, okay, yeah.
- [41:17]
Ryan Warmley
I mean, I mean, Zay did almost have a big touchdown on third. Like, if it went on for a bad OPI call, it would. It would have looked better. I mean, not that we need to go back to the Ravens, but. But like, to your point, D, bro, like, I know you said it didn't count. At the end of the day, he was really close to a 300 yard game with multiple passing touchdowns. If they likely doesn't fumble and Zay doesn't get called for the opi. So.
- [41:39]
Pat Fitzmaurice
No, that. That.
- [41:40]
Derrick Brown
That's fine.
- [41:41]
Pat Fitzmaurice
My.
- [41:41]
Derrick Brown
My better. My bigger takeaway with Lamar is that even with those plays and stuff like that, his still deeper metrics about his.
- [41:49]
Ryan Warmley
Accuracy as a passer, he's missing throws he should not miss 100%.
- [41:54]
Derrick Brown
Like he has looked objectively bad as a passer.
- [41:56]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, that's true. All right. Yeah. Sorry to drag us back to the Ravens again.
- [42:01]
Derrick Brown
I mean, it's a given. It's a given. We assume.
- [42:03]
Ryan Warmley
I thought Flowers was a good comp, which clearly it was because couldn't make up his mind.
- [42:10]
Bengals at Bills. Very fun game here in the early slate. It's pretty rare you get these two quarterbacks going head to head and it's not in some kind of prime time. Obviously it wasn't clear that Burrow was going to be back here just till recently, so that's kind of why it's still, you know, settled into that early slate. But we get a fun one here. Are we getting the big fireworks in this game people are hoping for? And I want you guys to pick a player. You are actually fading in this matchup since Obviously, everybody is very excited here. Fitz, I'll start with you.
- [42:37]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I do think we get fireworks even if it's cold. I kind of look back at Buffalo home games in December this week to see if that holds down scoring at all. It does not. There have been a lot of shootout games in Buffalo in December, so barring any blizzard, and we're not getting that this weekend, like, I think you can just start guys with confidence and not worry too much about the cold. Looking at my rankings, I'm not really fading anyone from this game, except for maybe Khalil Shakir. And I like him. He's clearly the Bill's number one receiver, but he's not really a big play guy. Shakir is averaging 10.3 yards per catch. He's not a consistent touchdown scorer. He has three touchdowns this season, none in his last five games. One in his last eight games. And even the catch volume hasn't been totally consistent. Here are his catch totals over his last five games. Seven, seven, one, eight one. So I just. I think people are a little higher on Khalil Shakir than they could be, at least in ECR.
- [43:42]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. Two of the last three games, having been wide receiver 98 and wide receiver 104 in scoring for the week is. Is not a great look.
- [43:52]
But, you know, he does get the Bengals defense here. D Ro what do you think? Do you expect fireworks? And who's somebody you would fade in this matchup?
- [44:00]
Derrick Brown
I'm not expecting, like, what's the total ad on this game? Like, I know it's in the 50s, right? Like, let me pull it up.
- [44:06]
Ryan Warmley
I don't have it up in flight.
- [44:08]
Derrick Brown
I know it was like, in the 50s.
- [44:09]
Ryan Warmley
Like, it was in the low 50s. When I looked early in the week.
- [44:12]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Two or 51 and a half.
- [44:14]
Ryan Warmley
It was one of those two. Early in the week. Yeah.
- [44:17]
Derrick Brown
Like, I. I mean, call me crazy, guys. Like, I'm more on the under on this game. Like, it's not that I'm not expecting scoring, but I. I'm not expecting that much scoring and I guess, like, out of anybody, Like, I'm still starting him, but, like, fading him. Like, I. I agree with Fitzy about Khalil Shakir. When I first opened ECR this week, I was like, really? Okay, where we got Khalil Shakir as a top 24 wide receiver. That feels ballsy, but whatever. So, yes, I have. I have Cleo Shakir as a wide receiver 3. But I guess the guy that I'm a little bit lower than consensus. Like, I've Got him like one or two spots. So like, I'm not fading him. He's a QB one. But like with Joe Burrow, like second game back, like the Bills, they're not rushing the passer good. So like you could make a conversation. Okay, he's gonna get clean pockets. But their past defense has been really good, like over since week nine. 8th fewest yards per attempt, 2nd lowest pass rating, the 10th fewest passing touchdowns allowed. I mean, all those things are conducive to scoring fantasy points. So going against this past defense and we still don't have word about T. Higgins, is he going to play? Is he not going to play? I, I kind of lean that. Like, maybe he's out again. He's been limited. Like, well, I mean, no, he was.
- [45:28]
Pat Fitzmaurice
He was full on Thursday.
- [45:30]
Derrick Brown
Oh, is he full yesterday? Okay, full.
- [45:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
But he has not officially come out of concussion protocol. Yeah. So I, I think, I think the progress points to him playing okay. And I think that, I mean, we know, we also, I think those Bills pass stats are partly because they're a run funnel because it's so easy to run on them. And Debro, I cannot take the under. I've, I've seen the Bengals try to tackle people. I, I can't take.
- [45:54]
Derrick Brown
That's fair.
- [45:54]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I can't bet the endurance.
- [45:55]
Ryan Warmley
I was gonna say, like, it's not even about the offenses, the defenses on both sides. Bills are so banged up that Bengals are just straight up bad. Like, I, I think this game gets played in the 60s, if not maybe even in the 70s. Like, I like the over. The total is 53 and a half that has gone up from where it was early in the week. And I, I frankly don't care. Maybe that's a sucker's bet, but I'm just like, I don't, Again, it's not even about the offenses. I don't see how these defenses are capable of stopping a good offense. And if these quarterbacks show up and play anywhere close to their A game, like, I think this could be the highest scoring game of the season. Like, like that's true. That's the state of these defenses. So, okay, I'm, I'm in on a big scoring game here.
- [46:31]
Derrick Brown
I mean, I, I, I will say to our points earlier, kind of did project a bounce back game for the Ravens last week and they kind of suck versus that defense, so we'll see.
- [46:40]
Ryan Warmley
But they sucked because of turnovers, which are, are fluky. It wasn't, I mean they were, they also just have their own problems right. Now, like, I. I think the Bills offense is going to be capable of taking advantage of a bad defense more than the Ravens.
- [46:52]
Derrick Brown
I mean, we'll see. The other point is the Bills have. I mean, they've shown their warts over the last few weeks too. So, I mean, we. We do have to mention that it's not like the Bills have been just like crushing teams. I mean, outside of like James Cook just running it down people's throats. Like, what has been working in the Bills offense? Josh Allen playing Superman.
- [47:11]
Ryan Warmley
I think. I think James Cook can run all over the Bengals though.
- [47:13]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Like.
- [47:14]
Derrick Brown
Well, yeah, I mean, bet the overs on James Cook. But what el of that has been working in the Bills offense? Like, not much of anything. And do we get Dalton Kincaid back? Joshua Palmer's banged up. We just talked about our worries about Khalil Shakir. I mean, these. These are all valid points.
- [47:29]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Kincaid will absolutely work against the Bengals if he comes back. I mean, if you have D. Kincaid, you are praying you get him because of how little the Bills have gotten from their other receivers while any of their receivers besides Shakir, maybe. And like, we know how the Bengals give it up to tight ends. Like if we. And really that's the only thing about Kincaid, his target volume. Man, if he plays in this game, you got to figure he's getting at least six or seven targets against.
- [47:55]
Ryan Warmley
I mean, this is a good. This is a good point. I know we're going long in this game, but is. Would you start Dawson Knox if Kincaid is out? Just given. Like, I know it's Dawson Knox, but with this is the tight end matchup.
- [48:06]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, but it's also like Jackson Hawes kind of.
- [48:10]
Derrick Brown
You're gonna get two Jackson Hawes touchdowns. Watch.
- [48:12]
Pat Fitzmaurice
So. And both of these guys are so lim. I can't. I'm not starting those guys over.
- [48:18]
Derrick Brown
Like, it would really depend on your options. Yeah, yeah. Like. Like I would feel better about.
- [48:24]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I still start like Kate Otten over Dawson Knox.
- [48:27]
Derrick Brown
You know, I would start TJ Hawkinson over freaking Dawson Knox. I'll just say that.
- [48:31]
Ryan Warmley
Okay, let's go to the late slate here. Broncos at Raiders. The first matchup between these two is one of the ugliest, most boring Thursday night matchups we have. We've had all year. Are there any players you are expecting to perform much better? Differently. I almost said better. But you can say worse too. So much differently in the rematch.
- [48:47]
Derrick Brown
D. Bro, I'm just gonna take the low hanging fruit. I'm just gonna sit here and take. Take the easy out here. RJ Harvey because he's, he's got to start his job. I mean, dude, you know it. He had six touches, 18 total yards. I. The Las Vegas Raiders run defense has been back and forth. Harvey hasn't had like the big breakout game. Would it surprise anybody if that happens and he runs for two touchdowns in this game?
- [49:11]
Ryan Warmley
No.
- [49:11]
Derrick Brown
So I'll just, I'll take the easy out here and say RJ Harvey.
- [49:14]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. I probably should have said besides RJ Harvey, but I didn't. It was an acceptable.
- [49:18]
Derrick Brown
You didn't, you didn't. Sorry. Like I felt, I thought I had to.
- [49:21]
Ryan Warmley
Where's Harvey ranked for you? Did you say he's already 15 in ECR?
- [49:25]
Derrick Brown
I've probably.
- [49:26]
Ryan Warmley
And again that's behind like Javante Gibbs who have already played. So a little higher. Not including them.
- [49:31]
Derrick Brown
I've got him at RB13.
- [49:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Jesus.
- [49:33]
Derrick Brown
I mean, I think he's somewhere in that high end RB, RB2 conversation. Like, I mean like, but it's a conversation. It's like, do you feel better about RJ Harvey or Breece hall or Saquon Barkley or the thought, should I say the thought of Saquon Barkley this year?
- [49:46]
Pat Fitzmaurice
You know, I've got RJ Harvey ranked RB12. I'm ahead of Debro and I don't even think RJ Harvey is.
- [49:51]
Derrick Brown
Oh, I don't think I need to go up.
- [49:53]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I don't think Harvey's even looked good, to be honest with you, the last couple of weeks. Like his rushing yards over expected. I think he's. I'd have to look at the number. I, I don't know what it is, but I think it's underwater. Like he just hasn't been very impressive yet. But I, I still think he's a good player and, and we like the matchup.
- [50:11]
Ryan Warmley
Of course, when, when anybody ever has RJ Harvey ranked higher than Debra for a week, he becomes the Michael Jordan meme of like. And I took that personally. He needs to make sure that he is no longer lower than Whoever's.
- [50:24]
Derrick Brown
I mean, R.J. harvey, two touchdowns last week it was a top five back. I mean I'm not gonna rule it out that he could score two touchdowns again.
- [50:31]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Good.
- [50:32]
Ryan Warmley
Where, where do you think D. Real quickly, the highest ranked expert in all of our rankings has Harvey this week. You don't have to guess who it is obviously. But like where do you think his ranking is for the highest RB10, RB7.
- [50:47]
Derrick Brown
Wow.
- [50:47]
Ryan Warmley
There are three people who have higher. There's an RB7 and there are two RB9s. So you got. You got a lot of work to do to get up there.
- [50:56]
Derrick Brown
They're sipping this way.
- [50:57]
Ryan Warmley
Good Lord, Fitz, who are you expecting to perform differently in this week?
- [51:01]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean, brock Bowers had one catch for 31 yards in that first game against the Broncos. Tough matchup for sure, but I'm expecting more than one catch for Bowers. And in that first Raiders Broncos game, Troy Franklin led the Broncos and targets with nine. Only finished with 40 yards, but he did have a touchdown. Cortland Sutton had four targets. I expect that to be different. Troy Franklin, at a snapshot cut last week only played about 50% of Denver's offensive snaps, 12 fewer, in fact, than rookie receiver Pat Bryant. So I think Troy Franklin investors should be a little careful starting him this week. Just know that you might not get the sort of usage you've been getting from him most of the season. And I'm expecting more from Cortland Sutton in the rematch, less from Troy Franklin.
- [51:47]
Ryan Warmley
If you want a chance to win. Bijan Robinson and Drake London signed mini helmet for free Courtesy of our friends@pristine auction.com all you need to do is head to fantasypros.com contest, complete the form and either download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on X Instagram or Tik Tok at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up. And to claim your prize, Fitz let's go to Bears at Packers Christian Watson, Kyle Menungai and DeAndre Swift are all ranked within five spots of each other in the Week 14 expert consensus rankings and the Flex rankings. At least they were when I put this together. I'll double check that as you answer to see where they are. Now, how would you rank those three against each other in this game? Again, Christian Watson, Kyle Menangai and DeAndre Swift.
- [52:37]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I have them bunched pretty tightly in my Flex rankings. Also, I've got Christian Watson first, Swift second, manang Guy third, Watson. He does have a pretty wide range of outcomes because he's a vertical threat. There's a ton of big play potential with him, but if those deep shots aren't connecting, he could absolutely go belly up, especially in a cold day. Like, it's going to be really cold at Green Bay Sunday, so we'll see how the passing games work. The Bears running game has been just incredible. Can't say enough about how good their offensive line has been playing. Like these guys they went out and got in free agency like Dalman and Thuney and Jonah Jackson. Like they are just mashing. Since their Week 5 buy, the Bears have averaged 179.6 rushing yards a game. That's just nuts. And the packers run defense is at least decent. Although we'll see how the loss of Demonte Wyatt to a season ending ankle injury hurts them. Even if the Bears aren't running for 179 yards in this game, like it's still possible one of Swift or Manangai hits it as a pretty good game but like like you're not often going to get both of those guys smashing. Although we've kind of seen it lately. Like the odds say that's not going to happen.
- [53:51]
And I tend to lean a little more towards Swift who's been less touchdown dependent.
- [53:58]
Ryan Warmley
So interestingly Manungai and Swift are only three spots apart at running back. They are 11 spots apart at Flex. So Manungai has dropped down. He's still got the questionable tag for the week. Watson and Swift are still very very close in the consensus Flex rankings. Like I said Manon guy is not crazy far but is a little bit further down now the clear third according to consensus. Deborah how do you see it?
- [54:20]
Derrick Brown
I've got him ordered DeAndre Swift, Christian Watson and Kyle Manangai and I think all three of them are fantastic plays. I think Ben Johnson gave us the blueprint and the script of what he's going to do or at least try to do to the packers this week. I think it is hide Caleb Williams as much as humanly possible and run the ever loving piss out of the ball. And they've been able to do it to Fitzy's point and also to Fitzy's point. Like the Green Bay run defense has shown some give since week nine, their 15th in explosive run rate. They've given up the 11th most rushing arts and they've given up the 14th highest yards after contact per attempt. And that's before we factor in losing Wyatt. So I think Ben Johnson showed us what he wants to do last week. He showed us the Bears can impose their will in the ground and hide Caleb Williams. And so I I I love Swift Amananguy both his plays this week and Christian Watson baby like dude since week 11 the wide receiver 12 in fantasy points per game he has taken off as the clear wide receiver. One I don't care if Matthew golden plays. I don't care if Jade Reed plays. I think they cannibalize each other. I think Watson plays a different role and he is outside of the worries of those guys.
- [55:31]
You know, factoring into his workload and just for everybody at home. Since week 11, Christian Watson has had a 28 target share and a 36 first read share. I I think he's headed for another big day.
- [55:46]
Ryan Warmley
I shouted out you you had a tweet with some of these stats and I read it on the show, on the Thursday show when we were talking about Christian Watson. D Row I know you've been dude, he's been awesome.
- [55:55]
Derrick Brown
Straight up awesome.
- [55:57]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah I so impressive. Just like stepping right in from the, from the injury. I like I did not expect to sad from this. I liked Watson as a player in general. I did not expect this from him coming back this year.
- [56:07]
Derrick Brown
Oh I I didn' and, and real fast before we move off of this game. I think this is also them putting Christian Watson into this role and giving him the the extension earlier whenever he was rehabbing. I think all of those signs point to they're going to run, they're going to move on from Romeo Dobbs. I think this is putting it at Christian Watson's feet. Can you be our wide receiver one moving forward and so far, dude, he's answering the belt.
- [56:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
And by the way, for a guy who had a lot of injury problems early in his career, Christian Watson is not the guy you would have expected. He got hurt in week 18 last year. He actually technically got hurt in 2025 and came back in week eight from a torn ACL. And he's playing really well, playing the best football of his career.
- [56:52]
Derrick Brown
And and do y' all notice this week who's not on the injury report for the first time this entire season? Christian Watson not on the injury report for the packers this week.
- [57:01]
Ryan Warmley
We've got, we've got one more game in the late afternoon slate Rams at Cardinals. We can go quick on this one. I just want to ask about Matthew Stafford. He has finished outside the top three 15 quarterbacks in two of the past three weeks. Obviously had that very poor game against the Panthers with the interceptions breaking his streak of not throwing any interceptions. He's ranked as the consensus QB3 against Arizona this week. I was surprised by this. Obviously Stafford has been very, very good for most of the year. In general, I'm not surprised that he's being ranked as like just kind of throw away the the Carolina game and expect a bounce back. Three is pretty High for a guy who absolutely does not run. I know there's four teams on by. I know guys like Lamar Jackson haven't been playing well. Joe Burrow still coming back off his injury again 3 just feels a little high to me. Dbro, do you see it as high or are you in line with consensus?
- [57:49]
Derrick Brown
I'm in line with ECR and I think this is more of a take of other quarterbacks being on by having tough matchups like Mahomes going against the freaking Houston Texans. Jalen hurts not playing good and going against the Chargers. I think that's more of what in Lamar Jackson playing bad. So like all these other quarterbacks that are usually above him in consensus. And the other part about this dude, I think we get a pissed off Rams team. I after last week this should be the big bounce back game for Stafford. I know Will Johnson is back, they've been better but Garrett William Garrett Williams in the slot has still been horrible. So I do think this is a bounce back game and if if the Rams want to run it up and say look like we're we're re cementing the Matthew Stafford MVP talk, good spot to do it.
- [58:33]
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, what do you think? By the way QB3 that's behind Dak Prescott who's already played. So of the guys still left to go, it's really QB2.
- [58:40]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yes and I agree with it. He committed turnovers last week. That's out of character. And you might have heard of these guys named Puka Niku and Devonte Adams. They're pretty good. Can I just drop some interesting numbers on Devonte Adams? So please do. 11 touchdowns in his last six games, which is just crazy. Scored at least one touchdown in each of those six games. Multiple touchdowns. And for them what's wild is that over that six game touchdown spree, Adams has averaged 48.8 receiving yards a game and he has scored a touchdown on 42.3% of his catches.
- [59:19]
That is crazy.
- [59:21]
And get this over so 48.8 receiving yards a game during this crazy touchdown streak. First six games of the season, 66 yards a game, only three touchdowns. Go figure man.
- [59:35]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, that's funny. I I'm not down on Stafford. I don't want to sound like I'm trying to fade him this week. I just was surprised to see QB3 but there are other factors and like you said guys on by things like that. So we're definitely all expecting a bounce back this week from the Rams. Let's go to Sunday Night Football. Can the Chiefs overcome their Inconsistency and offensive line injuries against what I think is the best defense in the NFL. You could argue, like Seattle, Denver, like one of and in my opinion, the best defense in the NFL. Can the Chiefs overcome what they've been dealing with as of late?
- [60:05]
Derrick Brown
Fitz?
- [60:06]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It's going to be a struggle. There's a reason this game has a Vegas Total of 42 at Hard Rock Bat. And I agree with you. I think the Texans do have the best defense. And you know, for all the the love that Miles Garrett and Micah Parsons get, Will Anderson is looking like Lawrence Taylor Jr. These days. I mean, he has just been insane. Whether it's, you know, just speed or his ability to just crush the pocket. I mean, Will Anderson is playing at a defensive player of the year level. He's not going to get it because Miles Garrett is going to get it. But Anderson should absolutely be in the top three there. The one guy I have some hope for in the Chiefs this week is Rasheed Rice. I've got him wide receiver three, which I know is above consensus and maybe it is too high, but the Texans are kind of a slot funnel. Like in terms and I think I might have mentioned this on another show I was on with you, Worm. In terms of the fantasy points that defenses have allowed to slot receivers as a percentage of the total fantasy points they've allowed to receivers, Texans are fourth highest in giving up slot points behind only the 49ers, Bills and Colts. So I still think Rice can, can get over in this game. But like, I don't want to bet on anything else in the Chiefs offense.
- [61:26]
Derrick Brown
Debra, Shout out to Will Anderson, second in the NFL behind only freaking Aiden Hutchinson in hurries this year. Yeah, I agree with everything Fitzy said and I'm just going to encapsulate this by telling everybody out there right now. I've already bet the Houston money line at over at hard rock plus 150.
- [61:45]
Bet it. Enjoy it. Love it. Casey's not winning this freaking ball game. They're not? Nope.
- [61:50]
Ryan Warmley
What's the spread? I'm, I was on the total three.
- [61:53]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Is it three?
- [61:54]
Derrick Brown
It's three. Yeah. I, I, the other part about this, I, I think it's three and a.
- [61:59]
Ryan Warmley
Half on Hard Rock. Bet.
- [62:00]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Okay.
- [62:00]
Derrick Brown
I think the Houston offense has a good day throwing the ball and I, I think Houston wins this freaking ball game. I think their defense is going to smother Mahomes. It's going to look rough.
- [62:10]
Ryan Warmley
We do a second question on Sunday Night Football. Every week we Highlight our favorite 3 and 4 stop. Star Prop Excuse me? We highlight our favorite 3 and 4 star props from the prop bet cheat sheet ahead of Sunday Night Football. Deeper. What's your favorite three or four star prop for this week?
- [62:25]
Derrick Brown
Just kind of alluded to a man, Jaden Higgins over three and a half receptions. That's four stars on the prop bet cheat sheet. And what do you want to talk about? Like okay, this is too high coverage and Jaden Higgins has a 30% target per route run rate against too high since week 10. Or we want to mention that the Chiefs have been giving it up to perimeter wide receivers since week nine. They're giving up the fourth highest pass rating when target. Yeah, Jaden Higgins give me that easy.
- [62:50]
Ryan Warmley
Over to pull back the curtain. Debra first sent in a prop that was a two star prop so we didn't want to use it and it was a Jaden Higgins prop and we were like oh, it actually needs to be another one. He was like all right, I'll find another Jaden Higgins. Like he was going to pick Jaden.
- [63:03]
Derrick Brown
Higgins at the over receiving arts Bet the anytime Touchdown. Just. Just Jaden Higgins. Jaden.
- [63:07]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Niggas.
- [63:07]
Ryan Warmley
Jake Niggas.
- [63:09]
Fitz, what's your favorite prop here?
- [63:10]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Xavier Worthy. Under three and a half receptions. And you know what I just said about the Texans past defense being kind of a slot funnel. It means they smother outside receivers and Worthy has had three or fewer catches in five of his last eight games anyway. And those games were against worse defenses than the Texans, except for maybe the Broncos and where they only had three catches against them.
- [63:33]
Ryan Warmley
Those were our top prop bets for Sunday Night Football this week, courtesy of Betting Pros. You can check out our NFL Prop Bet cheat sheet@bettingpros.com props premium subscribers have access to our five star prop bets which have a 58% win rate and we're up over 85 units this season. Luckily, we've also got a special offer for everyone to unlock a month of Betting Pros Premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today and use promo code FP1, month at checkout to redeem your offer. That's the number one not spelled out. Go to Monday Night Football here to wrap things up, guys. Eagles at Chargers AJ Brown finally delivered for fantasy managers last week, but the rest of the offense struggled and the Eagles only scored 15 points against the Bears. Can A.J. brown be trusted again or will this be more of a game for Hertz, Barkley, Smith, Goddard, et cetera? Anybody else here?
- [64:18]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Fitz, trusted is not a good word to use with the Eagles offense these days. I don't know if there's anything you can trust in Kevin Pattillo's system, but I, I have A.J. brown ranked wide receiver 10 and under no circumstances would I ever consider benching him. Except maybe in a Guillotine league where everyone's got an all star team this deep in the season.
- [64:39]
Ryan Warmley
Debra.
- [64:40]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, I mean, I'm starting AJ AJ Brown regardless at this point because the time you sit him, you're gonna, you're gonna hate life. But I will also point to. Yeah, man, like it's, you're starting Saquon Barkley again. This is just the idea of Saquon Barkley, but I will say that, like, I've, I've been on this train the entire year. The Los Angeles Chargers run defense is massively overrated. Like, they're not giving up a ton of rushing yards and all that kind of stuff like that. You peel back like the deeper metrics. 4th highest missed tackle rate since week 9, 10th highest rushing success rate. Saquon's had a lot of good spots to get going. This is another one. We'll see if he can actually do it. But the guy that I want to highlight and I was surprised by this man, like, why the heck is Dallas Goddard so freaking low in ECR? Like he's tired in freaking 16.
- [65:29]
Ryan Warmley
Why?
- [65:30]
Derrick Brown
Like, I don't, I don't get it. Fitzy, go ahead before I like, I just spit the love letter on Goddard this week. Like, why is he that low?
- [65:37]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, because so like back in week 10, they played the, the packers and he had I think three catches for 42 yards and like six targets. Those were her. His highest catch yardage and target totals of like the last seven weeks or like that. He's been terrible. That's why.
- [65:57]
Derrick Brown
So I, I'll point back to. Okay, he's got touchdown equity in this offense and low key. The Chargers have not been good at defending tight ends. Like, yes, we could talk about, okay, they've given up the six views receiving yards per game to tight ends. That's more of a function of. They have not been like tight ends have not been targeted versus them. And talk about Brock Bowers versus the Chargers. Also, like, look at what they've done versus tight ends on a per play basis. Like four views targets per game to the position that they faced. But when teams have targeted the tight ends, they've given up the 12th highest yards per reception and the 8th most receiving touchdowns per game to that position. So I, I think Dallas Goddard should be a top 12 tight end this week.
- [66:42]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah. Oh, by the way, tight end, 26 in PPR points per game since week seven.
- [66:48]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, it's a fair point.
- [66:50]
Ryan Warmley
I do a prediction show with Erickson early in the week and my number one best, like, bet we had to do like a hard rock best bet of the week. Mine was the Eagles minus two and a half. Like, I think they're gonna smash the Chargers. Honestly, do you guys think I'm crazy for that? Like, I. I just, I think the Eagles are gonna win this game running away.
- [67:06]
Derrick Brown
I think there's a possibility we get Trey Lance this week. Like, I don't. I'm not believing all the smoke that Jim Harbaugh is, like, dealing out there. Trey Lance is taking, taking first team reps. And if there's anybody in the entire freaking out NFL we cannot trust with injury information reporting, it's freaking Jim Harbaugh. And for all the Chargers fans out there that hate that take, really. So how much conversations have we had about when QJ was dealing with a hamstring injury and how many conversations and details have you heard about Amari and Hampton? Oh, okay.
- [67:39]
Ryan Warmley
I mean, even if Herbert was health fully healthy, I wouldn't like this offensive line going up against the Eagles.
- [67:43]
Derrick Brown
Got one working hand and a robot hand.
- [67:46]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm still taking Kyle Shanahan as being less trustworthy. Sorry.
- [67:50]
Derrick Brown
No, that's fair.
- [67:51]
Ryan Warmley
That's fair. Super fair.
- [67:52]
Derrick Brown
They're riding in the same clown car. Fitzy.
- [67:55]
Ryan Warmley
All right, we'll wrap up there. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Best of luck getting into the playoffs here. If this is kind of a do or die week for you. If you have any other questions about specific start sit matchup, you know, anything. You know, the guys are on Discord all the time. You know, Fitz will be doing a Twitter takeover on Sunday. We'll have opportunities to answer more specific questions. Please hit us up on social Discord everywhere else, but best of luck here this week. Thanks for tuning in For Debro and Fitz, I'm Ryan Warmley. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com what review? Or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and Tik Tok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [69:04]
Derrick Brown
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- [69:20]
Ryan Warmley
Is that guy with the binoculars watching us?
- [69:22]
Derrick Brown
Cut the camera. They see us.
- [69:24]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty.
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Derrick Brown
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Pat Fitzmaurice
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Derrick Brown
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Ryan Warmley
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Derrick Brown
Available while supplies last. Zyn After Dark Bring on the night.
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- [71:14]
Ryan Warmley
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