The Herd with Colin Cowherd (FantasyPros - The Extra Point: Playoff Sit/Start Decisions and Chat Q&A, Ep. 1910)

Date: December 21, 2025
Host: Chris Welsh & Andrew Erickson

Episode Overview

This episode of "FantasyPros – The Extra Point" focuses on critical playoff sit/start decisions for fantasy football managers heading into the semifinals. Hosts Chris Welsh and Andrew Erickson engage directly with their Discord community, fielding live questions on tough lineup choices, injury updates, and streaming options. The discussion is practical, data-driven, and lively, featuring real-world dilemmas from managers with championship aspirations.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Quarterback Decisions and Rankings

• Jackson Dart vs. Shuck (Streamer QB debate)

  • Both hosts prefer Dart due to his rushing upside and recent performance, despite a tough Minnesota matchup.
    • Welsh: "Dart, regardless of proto or not, he keeps running and he had like 60+ rushing yards and he has a lot of equity there." (03:39)
    • Erickson: "Darts 15 and Chuck is 19 [in my rankings]. So rolling with the dart." (04:03)

• Upside at QB for Playoffs

  • For high-upside plays, both lean established passers (Burrow, Dak) over riskier names like JJ McCarthy, unless truly desperate.
    • Welsh: "I'd still go Dak because I have zero trust in JJ McCarthy." (17:38)
    • Erickson: "I'm gonna play the guy that is good at quarterback." (17:44)

2. Running Back Debates

• RJ Harvey vs. Dowdle/Carter/DJ Moore (Flex)

  • Harvey gets the nod as the most versatile and safest play, even against tough defenses, due to his three-down role and pass-catching.
    • Erickson: "He could score a rushing touchdown and he catches passes. So...if he's catching passes out of the backfield, then it doesn't matter how good the Jags are at stopping running backs on the ground." (04:52)

• Estime vs. Mason

  • Mason's matchup and likely usage edges out the volatile Estime:
    • Welsh: "I think I might go Mason if I'm being honest with you, just because I love the matchup and the usage. I'm not sure is estimate gonna get 20 carries." (18:01)
    • Erickson: Skeptical, reminding listeners of Estime's boom/bust nature: "Back to last year, right? You were the one that rained on everyone's estimate parade… He was terrible." (18:16)

• Hampton vs. Harvey

  • Preference is given to Harvey due to volume and injury concerns with the competition, unless key defensive injuries improve Hampton's matchup.
    • Erickson: "The Dallas defense doesn't become nearly as much as a pushover if Quentin Williams is playing...maybe I would have to move Hampton down a couple spots." (31:28)

3. Wide Receiver Conundrums

• Justin Jefferson vs. T. Higgins

  • T. Higgins preferred, citing Jefferson's lack of production and struggles with his current quarterback, but emphasizes monitoring practice/injury status.
    • Welsh: "I have so little trust in Jefferson, it's not funny." (08:10)
    • Erickson: "It's T. Higgins. If he plays, you're playing T. Higgins. He has a dramatically, significantly higher ceiling." (08:23)

• Michael Wilson if Marvin Harrison Jr. is active?

  • Michael Wilson’s production is highly dependent on Marvin Harrison Jr.’s status—he becomes an afterthought when Harrison plays.
    • Erickson: "When he's on the field, Michael Wilson doesn't get targeted. It seems preposterous considering how good Michael Wilson has been...but it's just not the way this offense has operated." (23:08, 34:16)

• London, McConkey, T. Mac, Evans, Devonta Smith, etc.

  • Health determines most decisions, but Evans is a near-autolock. In uncertain WR rooms, upside and recent usage are the tie-breakers.
  • If Marvin Harrison Jr. plays, Michael Wilson drops out of consideration in most cases.

4. Tight End Streaming & Rankings

• Schultz vs. Waller/Loveland/Strange/Ferguson

  • Schultz has the highest floor and is the most trusted in the group, despite his dependency on touchdowns.
    • Erickson: "Schultz is my highest ranked guy too. He's had a solid floor most weeks and the last week he popped off..." (12:43, 16:34)

• Loveland as a Fantasy Playoff Sleeper

  • Emerging as a high-upside streamer with additional targets due to injuries around him.
    • Erickson: "Loveland is super talented. If you look at Loveland's box scores...the minute that one guy misses, he just blows up." (48:23)
    • Welsh: "Loveland, I think those two [with Parkinson] are super close [for week 17]." (51:26)

5. General Playoff Strategy & Injury Considerations

• Start Your Studs vs. Trust Recent Trends

  • There's significant skepticism around "must-start" big names who have underperformed (Jefferson, DJ Moore).
  • Consistent echoes to monitor practices and injuries, especially with teams out of playoff contention.

• Flex and Defensive Choices

  • Flex ranking is contextual, often focusing on who has the greatest touchdown equity in standard leagues.
  • Top defense picks for the week: Chiefs, Eagles, Saints.

• Low Floor, High Ceiling Situations

  • Hosts encourage weighing need for upside (if projected as an underdog) versus taking the safer, higher-floor play.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Justin Jefferson’s Season:
  Welsh (08:12): “Justin Jefferson has 37 yards combined the last three weeks? ... I have so little trust in Jefferson, it's not funny.”
  Erickson (38:42): “He's a buy-low candidate... [What] Justin Jefferson is going through is the classic case of rookie quarterbacks are traditionally bad for their fantasy wide receivers.”

• On Michael Wilson’s Role:
  Erickson (23:08): “We have a pretty large sample size of Marvin Harrison Jr. being active and Michael Wilson just being a ghost.”

• On Loveland as a Breakout TE:
  Erickson (49:05): “Loveland is super talented... if you look at his box scores, the minute that one guy misses, he just blows up… this could be a big game for him.”

• On Playoff Stress:
  Welsh (46:03): “I love when everyone asks, like, now it's the playoffs, ‘which defense, which kicker?’ Haven't asked these questions all year long, but now I'm like, I need to know the exact defense.”

• Humorous Interlude – Buy, Hold, Sell: Grinch, Rudolph, Frosty
  Welsh (43:38): “I'm gonna buy the Grinch, hold Frosty, and get rid of Rudolph. Rudolph's trash.”
  Erickson (44:13): “What does [Frosty] have to even do with holidays? He's just a snowman that comes to life for a day. What is his birthday?”
  Welsh (44:18): “What does a deer have to do with holidays?”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intro, playoff set-up and community details – 00:26–02:26
• QB streaming debates (Dart, Brissette, etc.) – 03:18–04:14
• First round of RB/WR sit/start dilemmas – 04:32–09:14
• T. Higgins vs. Justin Jefferson/WR decisions – 08:10–09:14
• Diving into injury fallout at WR (Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson) – 10:43–23:16
• TE streaming debate: Schultz, Waller, Loveland, Ferguson – 12:37–16:34, revisit at 48:05–49:19
• QB Upside: Dak, Burrow, McCarthy, projections – 17:10–17:48
• RB debates: Estime, Mason, Hampton, Harvey – 17:53–32:20
• WR pecking order (Evans, London, McConkey, etc.) – 21:47–23:23
• Jefferson narrative, wideout ceilings and floors – 37:00–41:48
• Semifinal defense streaming picks – 45:40–46:27
• Streamers and playoff desperation moves (TE, flex, RB) – 47:24–56:15
• Closing playoff thoughts, Discord/plugs – 62:13–63:32

Summary

For fantasy football managers in the playoff hunt, this episode delivers actionable, highly specific sit/start advice anchored by in-season trends, injury outlooks, and player usage. Welsh and Erickson talk directly with the community, bring humor amid the stress, and never shy away from tough calls—especially on formerly “automatic” starters who have become headaches (like Justin Jefferson). Emerging streamers (especially Loveland at TE) and nuanced upside/floor considerations dominate the conversation. Listeners get a blend of tactical fantasy guidance and the kind of locker-room banter that keeps December football lively.

For more, subscribe to FantasyPros and join their Discord for ongoing live Q&As, especially as championship week approaches!