The Herd with Colin Cowherd

FantasyPros – The Extra Point: Playoff Start/Sit Decisions and Chat Q&A (Ep. 1896)

Date: December 13, 2025
Hosts: Chris Welsh & Andrew Erickson
Theme: Navigating Playoff Start/Sit Decisions – Listener Q&A Extravaganza

Episode Overview

This episode is dedicated entirely to playoff start/sit dilemmas with Chris Welsh and Andrew Erickson fielding live Discord questions from the FantasyPros community. In a high-energy, real-time exchange, they guide listeners through tricky fantasy football roster decisions ahead of the crucial Week 15 playoff matchups, focusing on maximizing upside, reviewing injury impacts, and evaluating dynasty vs. redraft strategies. The episode’s tone is upbeat, collaborative, and irreverent, full of both rapid-fire tactical advice and deeper philosophical takes on fantasy management, especially around the unpredictability of playoff scenarios.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Playoff Mindset and Philosophy

• Both hosts emphasized “playing to win” rather than over-planning or tanking for future picks, even in dynasty formats. Playoffs are full of surprises, and just making it in means you have “a 1 in 8 or 1 in 6 chance” so put your best foot forward rather than worrying about slightly better draft positioning.
  • “If you make the playoffs, you have a 1 in 8 chance, 1 in 6 chance. I would take advantage of that.” – Andrew Erickson (23:51)
  • “We play to win the game, to win a championship.” – Andrew Erickson (24:44)
• Integrity and competition in leagues matter. Tanking in playoffs is discouraged, as it ruins league culture and fairness.

2. Injury Updates and Navigating WR/RB Depth

• Multiple questions centered on lineups impacted by key player injuries (Drake London, Lamb, T. Higgins, etc.).
• When dealing with ambiguous injury reports, the advice is often to “build depth” and prepare for all outcomes, particularly for teams in the playoffs or deep at wide receiver.
  • “I would say add wide receiver depth because you don’t know if he’s going to play...seemed like to me it was always going to be like that four game type of absence.” – Andrew Erickson (10:52)

3. Maximizing Upside vs. Floor in Playoffs

• Common trend: In playoffs, prioritize upside over safe, low-ceiling plays, especially if you're an underdog.
  • “Don’t play the 4 for 40 Jaden Reed play. If the Seahawks lay 35 points...I think you got to click the button on Ken Walker.” – Andrew Erickson (09:09)
• Conversely, when you’re favored or need safety, it’s okay to lean volume and consistency.

4. Specific Start/Sit Debates – Timestamps & Quotes

a) Three RBs vs. WRs in PPR Flex (03:14–03:46)

• Question: Pick 3 out of Breece Hall, Dowdle, Devin Neal, BTJ, Burden, Manangai.
• Consensus: Play the three RBs (Hall, Dowdle, Devin Neal), unless Dowdle is ruled out.
• “I think it’s probably those three running backs.” – Andrew Erickson (03:42)

b) WR Depth and Upside Decisions (08:23–08:41)

• Olave, Michael Wilson, Tetaroa (T-Mac), Chuba – Erickson recommends Olave and T-Mac over Wilson (especially if Marvin Harrison Jr. is out).
• “I’d happily start t Mac and Olave over Michael Wilson.” – Andrew Erickson (07:28)

c) Ken Walker vs. Jaden Reed for Upside (09:03–09:40)

• Both strongly endorse Ken Walker’s higher upside in Seattle’s run-favoring script, especially vs. Denver’s down arrows.

d) Tight End Debates: Tyler Warren vs. Isaiah Likely (12:29–13:39)

• Welsh: Warren is the “safety net,” but Likely has “sky high potential” for a league-winning week. Decision depends on whether you want solid points or a shot at a difference-maker.
• “Warren...getting 10 targets in this game...if you want a league weak winning performance not coming out of this Colts offense, I. I just highly doubt that's going to happen. Whereas Isaiah likely...has the potential to be one of the top tight ends.” – Andrew Erickson (13:34)

e) Mariota as a High-Upside QB Option (39:36–40:12)

• “Mariota. Easy, easy. Mariota was QB3...I mean he’s been pretty like locked and loaded.” – Andrew Erickson (39:41)

f) Low-End RB/Flex Calls: Woody Marks, RJ Harvey, and Others (41:17–42:18)

• “You’ve got to give it to Woody...even if he’s not the best player, he’s seeing big usage, and Arizona’s defense is buns.”

5. Dynasty Strategy—Tanking in Playoffs? (20:34–24:44)

• Listener asks if he should tank for a higher pick as a low-scoring playoff team.
• Both strongly urge against tanking. Even perceived weak teams can get hot, injuries can level the playing field, and advancing only raises your team's value.
  • “I’m just trying to win. I’m not trying to tank, especially when I’m in the playoffs.” – Chris Welsh (22:56)
  • “You want to install competitive integrity in your league. That’s what creates the best leagues.” – Andrew Erickson (24:56)

6. Navigating Start/Sit Uncertainty – Decision Trees & Injury News

• For questionable players, the advice is to “track news, be flexible, and set contingencies.”
• “Stay up to date with where the rankings are...closer to kickoff, if we get more DNPs from Breece Hall, I could see pivoting.” – Andrew Erickson (17:42)

7. Streaming QBs, WRs, and Defenses

• Mariota cited repeatedly as a sneaky, high-upside streaming QB if your main guy has a tough matchup or injury.
• Defenses: Given injury/backup QBs, both hosts toggle between Seahawks and Texans depending on expected game flow and turnover chances.
  • “I think I gotta go Seahawks...But now I’m afraid I told people to start the Seahawks defense over the Texans. I’m taking that back.” – Chris Welsh (60:13)

Notable Quotes and Moments

• “Weird stuff happens in the fantasy playoffs. It takes one injury to a team that you’re facing and that can help bottom them out and give you a chance to win.” – Andrew Erickson (23:51)
• “Don’t bench your studs unless you have a super compelling reason late in the season. Plug your nose and deal with it.” – Chris Welsh, on Justin Jefferson (62:46)
• “Bears fan, Manangai is that guy. That’s all.” – Listener “Matty” (57:41)
• “I want Dallas Goddard in that. Even though I kind of like Barner...” – Chris Welsh, on TE playoff streamers (26:14)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:14 – PPR Flex RB/WR Sort: Hall, Dowdle, Neal vs. Burden, Manangai, BTJ
• 07:28 – 2 Flex Decision: Michael Wilson, Tetaroa, Olave, Chuba
• 09:03 – Walker vs. Reed: Upside vs. Floor Playoff Choices
• 12:29–13:39 – Tight End Start/Sit: Warren vs. Likely
• 20:34–24:44 – Dynasty Playoff Tanking, Draft Pick Logic
• 41:17 – Woody Marks vs. RJ Harvey: RB2 Upside
• 39:36–40:12 – Mariota as Playoff Upside QB
• 62:46 – Jefferson Dilemma: Start or Sit?

Tone, Style, and Takeaways

• Relaxed, playful, transparent. The hosts readily admit when they’re working through a ranking “live” or re-evaluating a call.
• Commitment to actionable advice: Both are committed to giving direct answers, not hedging or talking in circles.
• Interactive and community-driven: Frequent involvement and attribution to individual Discord members’ questions.
• Refreshingly honest about the chaos of playoffs: “We play to win; don’t overthink or tank.”

Conclusion

This special playoff episode is a must-listen for anyone facing stressful start/sit decisions ahead of Week 15. With conversational, real-time insights and a focus on competitive integrity and upside chasing, Welsh and Erickson give the community both tactical choices and broader strategy guidance. Listener questions span the entire fantasy roster, from running back dart throws, wide receiver fringes, tight end upside, to dynasty tanking ethics—delivered with clarity, humor, and a dose of playoff optimism.

For Further Listening

• Check out FantasyPros for the Strength of Schedule tool, weekly live streams, and more in-depth matchup-driven analysis.
• Join the FantasyPros Discord to submit your own questions for possible inclusion in future tapings.

[End of Summary]