The Herd with Colin Cowherd – FantasyPros: Top 10 Breakout Candidates | Middle & Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Ep. 1664)

Date: August 23, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Warmley, Derek Brown ("Dbro"), Jake Seeley
Theme: The hosts count down their top 10 “breakout” fantasy football candidates for 2025—focusing on middle and late-round draft picks primed to outperform their current ADP and ECR. Each expert brings five choices, discussing upside, supporting evidence, and actionable advice for listeners aiming to maximize draft value and bench upside.

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the key breakout candidates for fantasy football 2025 who are being drafted in the middle or late rounds, ideal for filling out benches with upside shots rather than “wasting” those valuable spots. Jake and Dbro present and debate their respective top five choices (10 total), highlight why each player could smash their ADP, and offer insight into how to approach evolving ADP and new information during the hottest draft weekends of the season.

Key Discussion Points & Breakout Candidates

1. Bryce Young (QB, Carolina Panthers)

• Jake’s #5 Pick
• Timestamp: 03:50 – 06:14
  Jake makes the case for Bryce Young as a true late-round, high-upside quarterback:
• Not just a passer—Showed improved rushing late last season (25.4 rush yds/game Weeks 12-18; would be QB12 pace over full season).
• 5 rushing TDs in last 6 games (07:53)
• ECR QB22 but Jake says:

  “22 is wrong. If he gets the top 10, cool. If he’s a bust, you move on to the next one.” (05:39, Jake Seeley)

Other Comments:

• His rushing provides a weekly floor and potential for “fringe QB1” if passing progresses.
• Dbro:

  “He was the QB8 in fantasy points per game Weeks 12–18.” (06:52, Derek Brown)
  Thinks Young is a top late target, especially in superflex.

2. Ja’Kori “Bill” Crosby Merritt (RB, Washington Commanders)

• Dbro’s #5 Pick
• Timestamp: 08:14 – 14:09
• Skyrocketing up draft boards after Brian Robinson’s possible exit.
• DBro moved him to RB32 in his projections—projecting Robinson out.
• Compelling college efficiency—should slot into the Brian Robinson Jr. “early-down role”.
• Real-Time ADP: Already moved from RB60–70 to early 12th round.

  “We’re discussing a guy that, depending on touchdowns and volume, is in that fringe RB2, RB3 conversation.” (10:54, Derek Brown)

Jake cautious, ranks him RB37—sees “back end RB2” upside, but warns about possible committee with Rodriguez and Eckler eating up volume.

3. Cedric Tillman (WR, Cleveland Browns)

• Jake’s #4 Pick
• Timestamp: 18:03 – 21:11
• Heavy target volume late last year with Joe Flacco (40 targets in 4 games).
• Flacco’s gunslinger style and the lack of solid competition put Tillman in line for a strong start to 2025.
• Dbro:

  “The vibes on Deontay Johnson are bad...not out of shape, maybe not on the roster. That increases Tillman’s pathway.” (21:11, Derek Brown)

• Ryan: Still buys the talent after seeing “utterly dominant” play live, thinks the concussion at season’s end clouded perceptions.

4. Tucker Kraft (TE, Green Bay Packers)

• Dbro’s #4 Pick
• Timestamp: 22:01 – 27:07
• Per-route efficiency metrics off the charts:
  • 7th in yards/route run
  • 3rd in missed tackles forced
  • 1st in YAC/reception (among TEs)
• Dbro:

  “He’s a quietly good bet to lead the Packers in targets...if so, he could be sniffing top 5, top 6 TE production.” (23:54, Derek Brown)

• Both Jake and Ryan agree Kraft is the “better” pick over Musgrave (like Mark Andrews over Hayden Hurst).

5. Braylon Allen (RB, New York Jets)

• Jake’s #3 Pick
• Timestamp: 27:41 – 30:47
• New, bigger RB threat with Justin Fields under center.
• “Touchdown equity” backs next to mobile QBs:

  “Braylon Allen’s in the conversation to steal the work...there’s a non-zero chance he’s so good Breece Hall is the complimentary piece by year’s end.” (29:43, Jake Seeley)

• Dbro: “No problem taking Ahmad in the RB3 range. Zero interest in Joe Mixon, even for price enforcement.” (30:58 – 31:16, Derek Brown)

6. Ricky Pearsall (WR, San Francisco 49ers)

• Dbro’s #3 Pick
• Timestamp: 31:41 – 36:29
• Former first-rounder, projecting as a possible alpha in SF, especially with Iuke/Jennings banged up.
• Great tape of developing rapport with Brock Purdy.
• Elite target/first-read share in final two weeks (WR7 and WR14).
• Jake:

  “[He’s developed] from a Darius Slayton type to sitting in zones…huge for his role.” (35:10 – 36:28, Jake Seeley)

• All hosts agree he’s still ranked oddly low and is obvious “breakout” value.

7. Marvin Mims (WR, Jacksonville Jaguars)

• Jake’s #2 Pick
• Timestamp: 38:14 – 40:44
• Previously a “one-dimensional” possession guy, but now entrenched as the WR2 in Jacksonville (per preseason usage).

• “He’s clearly the number two. …If he gets 100+ targets, he can be a league-winning stash.” (40:06, Jake Seeley)

• Mims and Tillman both WR58/57 in ECR—hosts say both should be much higher.

8. George Pickens (WR, Dallas Cowboys)

• Dbro’s #2 Pick
• Timestamp: 42:36 – 47:20
• Major change: Traded to Dallas, now a No. 2 in one of the NFL's pass-heaviest offenses.
• Dbro, emphatic:

  “Top 15 wide receiver. I'm gonna stand on that. … He's being drafted as a WR3, the breakout is coming.” (44:26, Derek Brown)

• Jake: “His name needs to be with T. Higgins, Devonta Smith, Jalen Waddle… these offenses where the WR2 pops.” (44:37, Jake Seeley)

9. Rome Odunze (WR, Chicago Bears)

• Jake’s #1 Pick
• Timestamp: 49:07 – 53:32
• Writing off rookie-year disappointment as bad situation/play-calling.
• Emphasizes: “Take him like his rookie year didn’t happen.”
• Jake:

  “There is a world where we get to the end of the season and Dunesé is the most valuable Bears receiver.” (51:19, Jake Seeley)

• Ryan: Always willing to forgive high-talent, high-pedigree WRs after rough rookie years given context; Odunze fits perfectly.

10. Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Carolina Panthers)

• Dbro’s #1 Pick
• Timestamp: 53:52 – 62:06
• Relentless preseason drumbeat, great college production.
• Clear path to targets as alpha X with only Adam Thielen, Jatavion Sanders as competition.
• Dbro:

  “He could put up Malik Nabers rookie season numbers…take him in the 4th-5th round and you’ll be ahead of most people.” (55:01, 61:21, Derek Brown)

• Jake:

  “We said all college season he was the best WR in the class…he’s still being buried in drafts, but could go Jacoby Myers floor, Brian Thomas upside.” (58:05, 58:54, Jake Seeley)

• Ryan: “If I had to pick one WR not top-12 now who will be consensus top-12 a year from now, he’s my pick.” (61:25, Ryan Warmley)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On “Wasting Your Bench” and Breakout Stashes:
  "These are ten pieces that should be on your bench, not some random, low-upside names." (03:17, Jake Seeley)
• On Real-Time ADP:
  "ADP in general is kind of a lagging indicator…Real Time ADP is going to keep that updated as things break in August." (11:03, Ryan Warmley)
• Jake on Joe Mixon:
  "Joe Mixon's straight up off my draft board. Zero percent interest." (31:04 – 31:10, Jake Seeley & Derek Brown)
• Debro’s Aggression on Pickens:
  "Say it with your chest, or don't say it at all." (47:20, Derek Brown)
• McMillan Dynasty Outlook:
  "This is the cheapest that Tetairoa McMillan will be in drafts for the next eight to ten years of his career." (56:47, Ryan Warmley)

Breakout List Recap, In Order

| Jake Seeley | Derek Brown | |:----------------------------------- |:----------------------| | 1. Rome Odunze (WR – CHI) | 1. Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR) | | 2. Marvin Mims (WR – JAX) | 2. George Pickens (WR – DAL) | | 3. Braylon Allen (RB – NYJ) | 3. Ricky Pearsall (WR – SF) | | 4. Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE) | 4. Tucker Kraft (TE – GB) | | 5. Bryce Young (QB – CAR) | 5. Ja’Kori “Bill” Crosby Merritt (RB – WAS) |

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Bryce Young breakout argument: 03:50–07:53
• Crosby Merritt value climbing: 08:14–14:09
• Cedric Tillman’s unique volume: 18:03–21:11
• Tucker Kraft vs. Musgrave/Andrews analogy: 22:01–27:07
• Braylon Allen vs. Breece Hall: 27:41–31:16
• Ricky Pearsall’s role and usage: 31:41–36:29
• Marvin Mims’ new deployment: 38:14–40:44
• Pickens as Dallas’ next WR breakout: 42:36–47:20
• Odunze post-disappointment optimism: 49:07–53:32
• Tetairoa McMillan as Malik Nabers 2.0: 53:52–62:06

Summary and Draft Takeaways

• The position you stash for upside is no place for backups and low-ceiling veterans—target highly talented, ascending players who can jump tiers with role or improvement.
• Don’t be afraid to forgive rookie-year disappointments in extreme situations (e.g., Odunze, Pearsall).
• Seek out wide receivers and running backs on the cusp of major volume—drafting at ADP is “free” upside when the market lags on camp/preseason news.
• Both co-hosts were higher than consensus on all their picks, often by entire tiers (e.g., Dbro has Pickens as WR15, McMillan as WR2).
• “Real Time ADP” and adaptive drafting are essential—August news and cuts matter more than stale, static data.
• “Say it with your chest!”—Don’t be afraid to aggressively plant your flag, because that’s where league-winners come from.

For further insights and to track these players’ surges in value, visit FantasyPros’ rankings, tiers, and real-time ADP.

(End of summary.)