The Herd with Colin Cowherd – FantasyPros Special:

Top 10 Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 16 (Ep. 1903)

Date: December 18, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Warmly (“A”) & Andrew Erickson (“B”)
Theme: Deep-dive on fantasy football predictions, matchups, and prop bets for Week 16 – the critical semi-final round of the fantasy playoffs. The hosts bring energy, humor, and plenty of banter, focusing on matchups, player outlooks, and their best bets for fantasy success this week.

Episode Overview

This episode is all about arming fantasy managers with sharp insights and bold predictions for Week 16's playoff semifinals. The hosts recap their Week 15 picks (mixed results), offer actionable and nuanced analysis for key games, and debate player outlooks with lots of stats and trademark banter. Special focus is given to team motivation (playoff status, contract incentives), injury fallout, player usage trends, and tough start/sit decisions in a pivotal week.

Episode Highlights & Key Insights

1. Playoff Nerves & Recap: Surviving and Thriving (00:00–04:16)

• Personal league check-in: Both hosts are active in multiple leagues and note the emotional rollercoaster of playoff fortunes. Ryan mentions being alive in 8 out of 14 leagues, but past years have seen Week 16 be a graveyard.
• Week 15 hits & misses: Both went 1-4 on predictions, but hit their “Hard Rock Best Bet” picks. Both hope to rebound in the semifinals.

“It is very refreshing that the Chiefs are not going to be in the playoffs. It was very much like a ‘ding dong, the witch is dead’ type of feeling on Twitter when that was official.”
—Ryan (12:13)

2. Notable MNF Game Takeaways (04:16–06:23)

• MNF saw little fantasy relevance despite 43 points. Only DK Metcalf, Darren Waller, and Kenneth Gainwell gave managers real help.
• Looking ahead: The Steelers’ backfield is messy; Aaron Rodgers is flagged as an intriguing streaming QB; Darren Waller likely to be a top TE next week given his strong usage.

Top 5 Predictions (with Insights & Banter)

3. Prediction 5: Chiefs at Titans – Letdown Game & Tony Pollard Upside (06:49–12:44)

Erickson’s Take:

• The Chiefs are “in a flat spot”—eliminated from playoff contention, key injuries (Mahomes out for season), and little on the line but pride.
• Predicts a Chiefs loss and Tony Pollard eclipsing 51.5 rushing yards; Pollard’s contract incentives make him extra motivated.

“This Chiefs team is going to be really deflated. Like, what are they playing for again?” —Erickson (06:49)

“Don’t forget about contract incentive season here… I think they're going to continue to feed Tony Pollard the rock.” —Erickson (08:41)

Ryan’s Counter:

• Argues experienced teams like KC may still show up; says Chiefs’ offense will be “okay” without Mahomes at least this week, citing Gardner Minshew’s risk-taking and pride.
• Prediction: Travis Kelce, likely playing his final games, gets an anytime TD.

4. Prediction 4: Panthers at Bucs – TMAC’s Ceiling Week (15:45–21:03)

Erickson’s Take:

• Predicts Tetro McMillan (TMAC) of Carolina Panthers bounces back as a top-20 WR vs. Bucs.
• Bucs force teams to pass; TMAC’s targets and a positive game script set up a real ceiling game.

“You’re shooting for ceiling in the playoff weeks… TMAC has shown one time this year, hey, I can do that and be that guy.” —Erickson (20:02)

Ryan’s Response:

• Questions high ECR (expert consensus rank) for TMAC given recent output, but buys the matchup-based upside.

5. Prediction 3: Two Top-5 Tight Ends in Cardinals-Falcons (Third Tease for Bowers & Pitts) (25:13–31:09)

Ryan’s Call:

• Both Trey McBride (Cardinals) and Kyle Pitts (Falcons) will be top-5 TEs again. McBride has been a revelation since midseason; Pitts is coming off a career game.
• Discusses Pitts’ volatility and the 'what if’ of Drake London returning.

“Isn’t the toothpaste kind of out of the bottle here? Like, how are you going to not give Kyle Pitts 10 targets?” —Ryan (31:09)

Erickson’s Warning:

• If London returns, targets could be diverted; raises caution about chasing last week’s Pitts eruption.

6. Prediction 2: Omarion Hampton, RB1 Szn & Justin Jefferson Bounceback (32:00–39:53)

Erickson’s Pick:

• Omarion Hampton (Chargers RB) will be a surprise RB1 vs. the Cowboys, expecting an increased workload and easier defensive matchup with possible injuries to Dallas’ D-line.

Ryan’s Pick:

• “This is the Justin Jefferson game.” Predicts Jefferson finally gets his after weeks of disappointment (“top 15ish” WR); says the team is hyper-focused on getting him to 1,000 yards.

“I am predicting here that this is the Justin Jefferson game. We finally get him back.” —Ryan (35:29)

7. Prediction 1 / Hard Rock Best Bets (50:40–57:00)

Erickson’s Best Bet:

• Audric Estime (Saints RB) is a flex start against the Jets if Saints’ backfield injuries persist. Cites Jets’ remarkable RB1 streak allowed, Estime’s increasing usage, and home-favorite game script.

“Just play the running back that’s facing the New York freaking Jets.” —Erickson (52:48)

Ryan’s Best Bet:

• The Raiders’ offense will be better than last week, but still produce no startable fantasy players against the Texans.
• Under on Brock Bowers props, underscores how pitiful the Vegas offense looks right now.

Other Notable Moments & Quotes

• On the Ravens-Patriots showdown (44:42–50:25):

  • Erickson (a Pats fan): Patriots win + Isaiah Likely bounces back as a top-12 TE, Lamar throws for 2+ TDs.
  • Ryan (a Ravens fan): Leans Baltimore (especially at home), expects a high-scoring game ("played in the 50s"), and likes the over.

• On fantasy playoff emotions:

  “When you have a handful of teams, you’re always going to lose ones every single week. But as long as you have a couple live bullets, it gives you a good sweat.” —Erickson (00:50)

• On prop betting strategy:

  • Ryan and Erickson both like the Chiefs-Titans over (14:11), citing overlooked scoring upside.

Timestamps by Segment

• 00:00 – Playoff check-in, Week 15 recap
• 04:16 – MNF breakdown, Steelers & Dolphins fantasy fallout
• 06:23 – Key predictions format explained, into Top 5
• 06:49 – Prediction 5: Chiefs at Titans, Pollard’s upside, Chiefs pride?
• 15:45 – Prediction 4: TMAC WR2 Week, Panthers at Bucs
• 25:13 – Prediction 3: Cardinals-Falcons TEs (Pitts & McBride discussion)
• 32:00 – Prediction 2: Omarion Hampton RB1 & Justin Jefferson Bounceback
• 44:42 – Ravens-Patriots SNF: Picking a winner, likely top-12, passing outlook
• 50:40 – Hard Rock Best Bets: Estime, Raiders fade, prop bet angles
• 58:19– End – Christmas movie banter / Episode wrap

Episode Tone & Language

• Conversational, playful, and analytical: Banter and friendly taunts blend with deep fantasy insight and actionable advice.
• Self-deprecating humor: Especially around past misses (“Charlie Brown trying to kick the football than Kyle Pitts” – 31:39).
• Relentless focus on helping listeners: Even when dissecting their own fantasy heartbreaks, the hosts always bring it back to actionable takeaways.

Conclusion & Key Takeaways

• This episode drops knowledge bombs for managers trying to grab a finals berth, with layered analysis around team motivation, player usage trends, injury updates, and sharp prop bet angles.
• Must-follow takeaways: Play the matchup, trust usage and contract incentives, and don’t be afraid to shoot for ceiling plays in playoff weeks.
• Hard Rock Best Bets: Focused on under-the-radar flex options and fading teams with no upside (e.g., the Raiders offense).
• For listeners: Even if some past picks didn’t hit, the insights here are data-driven and high-upside, with enough context to help you make your toughest semifinals decisions—and have some fun in the process.

Notable Quotes

• “If you’re listening to the show, just skip to the last predictions because those are the only ones that are stone cold locks to actually happen.” —Erickson (02:55)
• “You’re shooting for ceiling in the playoff weeks… [TMAC] has shown one time this year, hey, I can do that and be that guy.” —Erickson (20:02)
• “Don’t forget about contract incentive season here… I think they're going to continue to feed Tony Pollard the rock.” —Erickson (08:41)
• “Isn’t the toothpaste kind of out of the bottle here?” —Ryan on Pitts’ usage (31:09)
• “This is the Justin Jefferson game. We finally get him back.” —Ryan (35:29)
• “When you have a handful of teams, you’re always going to lose ones every single week. But as long as you have a couple live bullets, it gives you a good sweat.” —Erickson (00:50)
• “Just play the running back that’s facing the New York freaking Jets.” —Erickson (52:48)

Good luck in your semifinals—lock in the ceilings and let the chips fall!