FantasyPros - Top 50 Wide Receiver Rankings and Tiers (Ep. 1576)

Summary

Podcast Summary: FantasyPros - Top 50 Wide Receiver Rankings and Tiers (Ep. 1576)
Release Date: May 24, 2025
Host/Participants: Ryan Warmley, DBRO, and Pat Fitzmaurice
Platform: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

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Introduction and Season Preparation [00:00 - 02:07]

The episode kicks off with Ryan Warmley welcoming listeners to the FantasyPros Football Podcast, joined by co-hosts DBRO and Pat Fitzmaurice. The trio discusses their excitement about navigating wide receiver rankings and tiers in the lead-up to the upcoming fantasy football season.

• Ryan Warmley [00:00]: "When the three of us are together, I always feel like it's a Friday Night Football episode..."

They delve into their current preparations for the fantasy season, sharing insights into their draft strategies and the excitement surrounding their collaborative discussions.

Top 50 Wide Receiver Rankings Overview [02:07 - 03:21]

Ryan Warmley outlines the episode's primary focus: reviewing the top 50 wide receivers based on FantasyPros' half PPR rankings. He emphasizes that while they won't delve deeply into each player due to time constraints, the hosts will explore groupings to highlight key discussions and differing viewpoints.

• Ryan Warmley [02:07]: "We're going to run through the top 50... having some interesting conversations, see where we agree, see where we disagree..."

Top Four Wide Receivers: Consensus and Disagreements [03:21 - 05:05]

The discussion begins with the top four wide receivers:

1. Jamar Chase
2. Justin Jefferson
3. CD Kupp
4. Puka Nuku

All hosts agree on the strength and ranking of these players, considering them as clear top contenders for first-round picks.

• DBRO [03:21]: "It's a clear top two... Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb, Puka..."
• Pat Fitzmaurice [04:47]: "Chase is pretty clear wide receiver number one..."

They also debate the overall number one pick, with both DBRO and Pat Fitzmaurice favoring Jamar Chase over candidates like Saquon Barkley or Bijan Robinson.

• Pat Fitzmaurice [05:05]: "It's Chase or Bijan for me also."

Mid-Tier Wide Receivers and Position Concerns [05:08 - 07:23]

Moving into the next tier, the hosts discuss receivers such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Conklin, and Malik Neighbors. A significant focus is placed on Malik Neighbors, where DBRO expresses concerns about his ranking due to the quarterback situation in New York.

• DBRO [07:53]: "I can't and this all comes down to quarterback play..."

Pat Fitzmaurice counters by highlighting improvements in New York's quarterback lineup, suggesting that Malik Neighbors may have a better season ahead.

• Pat Fitzmaurice [10:05]: "I'm with you for him like Russ... He is still pretty good at what he does."

Analyzing Specific Player Situations [07:23 - 11:01]

The conversation delves deeper into specific player circumstances affecting their rankings:

• Brian Thomas Jr. is praised for his performance under quarterback Matthew Stafford, positioning him as a strong contender for higher rankings.

  • DBRO [07:23]: "He's going to be in the conversation with Jefferson and Chase."

• Devonte Adams is a point of contention, with DBRO placing him lower than consensus due to concerns about target distribution and quarterback performance.

  • DBRO [24:07]: "Adams hasn't fallen off at all. He's a wide receiver one."

• Malik Neighbors continues to be debated, with Fitz optimistic about his exposure to targets and DBRO cautious about the quarterback's impact.

Lower Tier Receivers and Emerging Talent [12:07 - 16:55]

The hosts examine players ranked between wide receiver 12 to 18, including:

• Devonte Adams
• AJ Brown
• Drake London
• Lad McConkey

DBRO expresses enthusiasm for Drake London, believing he could emerge as a top receiver with improved quarterback support.

• DBRO [12:35]: "Drake London is a dark horse candidate for wide receiver one overall this year."

Pat Fitzmaurice emphasizes Lad McConkey’s potential despite being at the lower end of the tier.

Concerns and Optimism in Mid-to-Lower Rankings [16:20 - 34:03]

The discussion progresses to middle ranks, highlighting players like:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Jackson Smith and Jigba
• Tyreek Hill
• Mike Evans

Concerns are raised about Amon-Ra St. Brown's target shares dropping due to competition and offensive strategy changes.

• Pat Fitzmaurice [14:08]: "Amon Ra went from 17.2 to 15.2 fantasy points per game..."

Conversely, optimism remains for players like Garrett Wilson and Christian McCaffrey, who are expected to rebound or maintain high productivity.

Late-Round Gems and Potential Breakouts [34:03 - 54:19]

In the later segments, hosts discuss wide receivers ranked 19 to 44, including:

• Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Rasheed Rice
• Zay Flowers
• Calvin Ridley
• Roma Dunza

Marvin Harrison Jr.’s potential to climb ranks is debated, with DBRO expressing skepticism about Arizona’s offensive cohesion affecting his performance.

• DBRO [41:11]: "I'm probably going to be close to ECR with Marvin Harrison Jr."

Rasheed Rice is similarly scrutinized due to inconsistent target distribution and off-field issues.

• Pat Fitzmaurice [43:02]: "Rasheed Rice was terrific in 2023... but Xavier Worthy was getting his sea legs..."

Conversely, Calvin Ridley is highlighted as undervalued, with hosts advocating for higher rankings based on his historical performance and current offensive setup.

• Pat Fitzmaurice [59:49]: "Ridley. I think I'm above consensus on Ridley."

Final Rankings and Closing Remarks [54:19 - 71:43]

In the concluding segments, the hosts review the remaining wide receivers, offering final thoughts on players like Ricky Pieris, Josh Downs, Cooper Kupp, and Christian Kirk. Emphasis is placed on potential breakout players and those who may outperform their current rankings based on team dynamics and individual talent.

• DBRO [65:06]: "I think this is going to be Ricky Pieris all show."

The episode wraps up with the hosts reiterating the importance of staying informed and flexible with rankings as more team updates become available closer to the draft.

Notable Quotes

• Ryan Warmley [02:07]: "We're going to run through the top 50... see where we agree, see where we disagree..."

• DBRO [03:21]: "It's a clear top two... Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb, Puka..."

• Pat Fitzmaurice [04:47]: "Chase is pretty clear wide receiver number one..."

• DBRO [07:53]: "I can't and this all comes down to quarterback play..."

• Pat Fitzmaurice [10:05]: "I'm with you for him like Russ... He is still pretty good at what he does."

• DBRO [24:07]: "Adams hasn't fallen off at all. He's a wide receiver one."

• Pat Fitzmaurice [14:08]: "Amon Ra went from 17.2 to 15.2 fantasy points per game..."

• Pat Fitzmaurice [43:02]: "Rasheed Rice was terrific in 2023... but Xavier Worthy was getting his sea legs..."

• Pat Fitzmaurice [59:49]: "Ridley. I think I'm above consensus on Ridley."

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This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the top 50 wide receivers for the upcoming fantasy football season, blending consensus opinions with individual insights from the hosts. Listeners gain valuable perspectives on player rankings, potential over- or under-valuations, and the impact of team dynamics on individual performances. Whether you're a seasoned fantasy manager or new to the game, this discussion offers critical information to inform your draft strategies.

Transcript

[Ryan Warmley]

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[Pat Fitzmaurice]

I'm in the middle of my first redraft draft right now, which is kind of fun. One of my followers put together a little like half analyst, half civilian draft, and it's Super Flex and it's a lot of fun. It's kind of interesting to see where some of these guys are going and where some of the value is. So it's good to knock the rust off. But yeah, that's it. Just like spruced up the rankings a little bit recently and, you know, working on some player notes, some dynasty content. But I'm feeling pretty good. I'm ready for, ready for training camp Swarm.

[Ryan Warmley]

How about you, Zebra?

[DBRO]

It's player note season, baby. So getting through all the positions, getting ready for best ball season and just tightening up ranks. Man, we're. I don't want to say we're like at the precipice of redraft season, but can we say it's like slowly heating up like it's on the horizon.

[Ryan Warmley]

Quick reminder for everybody that all of our 20, 25 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com rankings. If you want to kind of follow along with those rankings as we work through the top 15, 50 wide receivers in those early rankings, you can surely find them there. Basically, what we're going to do with this episode is kind of run through the top 50. We're not going to obviously deep dive on every single player because we can't really be here for six hours. But we'll kind of go through in groupings, you know, roughly along the lines of where we have them tiered but not, not strictly following those orders and just have some interesting conversations, see where we agree, see where we disagree and kind of just get an early look as we sit here in the the second half of May still, you know, 3ish months away from most drafts, but kind of getting a snapshot of where the receiver landscape, how it looks and and how we think it might change in the next few months. Sound good? Let's go top 50. We'll start with the top four. That is a tier on the, on the this by the way, we're looking at the half PPR rankings on on fantasypros.com Jamar Chase number one Justin Jefferson number two CD Lamb number three Puka Nukua number four Debro. It's hard to imagine anybody really disagreeing not only with those name but largely with the order. You might quibble here and there with one or two, but it feels like it's a pretty clear top four.

[DBRO]

I think it's a clear top two. My rankings I, I think there's a player that we're going to get to that I think deserves to be in that top four top five bucket. But Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb, Puka to kua like again, there's not a whole lot of discussion here. I mean all those guys to belong inside of the top five at the.

[Ryan Warmley]

Very least inside of the top how many for your actual draft? Like all these guys should be gone by what pick in the first round? Dbro.

[DBRO]

All these guys in my rankings right now would be gone by pick seven. Like I've got in my top six players. Five of those are wide receivers.

[Ryan Warmley]

Okay, Fitz, what do you think? I mean are these the right four names and you know, top seven ish. And you know, first half of the first round is where they should all be going.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

So I think the top three guys, Chase, Jefferson and Lamb should be gone inside the top five overall, assuming you're in a league where you have to start three wide receivers, in which case that position is really important. I would personally, even though I do have Puka wide receiver four, he is part of my tier two and I think there is a case for some other guys to be ranked ahead of him. But I think Chase is pretty clear wide receiver number one. And then I think you could debate Jefferson versus Lamb for wide receiver two. And then I think it's kind of a big second tier.

[Ryan Warmley]

Is Chase the number one overall pick, by the way?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

He is for me.

[DBRO]

He is for me. I. I think.

[Ryan Warmley]

I mean, it's him or Saquon, right? Or would you make the case for me, it's.

[DBRO]

It's Chase or Bijan. That's my RV one for this year.

[Ryan Warmley]

Okay. Is it same for you, Fitz? Is it Bijan or would it be Chase or Saquon you're picking?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

It's. It's Chase or Bijan for me also.

[Ryan Warmley]

Okay.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

You know, I'm definitely a little terrified of Saquon's heavy workload last, which really added up. If you cut the playoffs, that'll be.

[Ryan Warmley]

Fun to do when we do a running back version of this episode. But yeah, Chase, Jefferson, Lamb Nukua, we're not arguing too much there. Maybe with Puka, you could argue it in the next year down the next kind of group of names. It's kind of a larger group here. It's Amon Ross, St. Brown, Malik neighbors, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr. AJ Brown, Drake London and Lad McConkey. That. That is what the tier is in terms of ECR right now. I think most people would look at the top few names as you're clearly taking St. Brown and Malik neighbors ahead of, you know, lad McConkey for example, as much as we might like lad. So maybe there should be really a tier within there kind of those. That first group of names. Guys. Amon Rahle, Fitz. Is this where you have Puka kind of in with those names?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yes, I've got him at the top of that tier and I think there's a case that you could put either of the LSU guys, Malik neighbors or Brian Thomas Jr. Ahead of Puka. But you know, I still feel. I still feel pretty good about Puka despite the addition of Devonte Adams and what that might mean for his target share.

[Ryan Warmley]

Debra, who is the name that you have. You said possibly ahead of Puka here in your top. In your top four, it's Brian Thomas.

[DBRO]

Jr. Man, he is my wide receiver three this year. The only guys that I have above him are Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson. And this comes down to he is one of like if I want to rank a guy this high and I think we're Also being like EZR is being a little dismissive like Brian Thomas Jr. A wide receiver 8 I think is honestly very dismissive considering what he did to tail end of last year with Mac Jones as his freaking quarterback. Like after weeks 13 through 18 this dude was the wide receiver 2 in fantasy points per game behind only Jamar Chase. So can we not say that every single thing has gotten better for him this off season? No, I'm not worried about Travis Hunter taking away targets that they are going to be the twin pillars of that passing attack. Trevor Lawrence back healthy. Liam Cohen in town. I I I don't see where he he doesn't have an access point to being the wide receiver one overall this year and being in the conversation with Jefferson and Chase. So yeah he's going to be my wide receiver three throughout the rest of the process.

[Ryan Warmley]

Couldn't though DBRA could you make a similar argument from a leak neighbors where he just had this insane rookie season with terrible quarterback play and now they have a rookie that you like quite a bit there and I mean he's still going like a dominant target share guy in this offense you would think. And he was so insanely good when he was on the field last year with that quarterback situation. He's also still pretty young so I feel like a lot of I mean the situation is better for Thomas. I I think most would agree but I feel like you could make a similar case for neighbors taking a step up from what is already a very high starting point.

[DBRO]

I can't and this all comes down to quarterback play and what as much as I love Jackson Dart, he's still an unknown commodity and I don't even know if we see him play unless we're talking about this Jameis Winston playing. I I can't get there because if Russell Wilson is starting games, if he starts the entire season it will impact Malik neighbors. Now we could talk about all the bad quarterback play. The other part about Malik neighbors and honestly like I've got him below consensus. I've got Malik Neighbors at wide receiver nine because I'm worried about Russell Wilson limiting his ceiling. What have we seen over the last two years guys? That's what Russell Wilson does. He doesn't access the middle of the field. It's all go balls or nothing and he's going to impact how fast that offense runs, how much they throw the ball. I mean George Pickens, we made the same kind of conversation last year and yes we could talk about the snap, shears going up and down and stuff like that. But also the year before that Cortland Sutton, similar kind of thing where it was like he's the only guy to catch passes. Russell Wilson ruined both of their seasons. So I I still like Malik Neighbors And I still have him as a wide receiver one because of his talent. But Russell Wilson starting games. Even if I think Jackson Dart gets on the field and I do think that happens, or Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson still caps his ceiling for as long as he will be the starting quarterback for the Giants.

[Ryan Warmley]

Do you think Russell Wilson is a worse quarterback for him for fantasy than the situation he was in last year?

[DBRO]

I do.

[Ryan Warmley]

Because you have him ranked lower than he finished last year.

[DBRO]

I do. And the other part that I hadn't even mentioned. What are we going to talk about the defensive upgrades? If this is a team that is playing and I know their schedule is brutal but if this is a team that is playing not catch up and throwing the ball a ton but if they're in neutral game scripts or heck if they're winning some of these games because their defense is so dramatically improved from last year as well, that's going to impact the passing rates.

[Ryan Warmley]

Fitz, what do you think? Because, because I look at it very differently from De Bro. I'm like there's no way a healthy Malik Neighbors is getting fewer than like 12 targets a game at worst. And I do think that in the course of the season because I don't think Russ is going to start the whole year. I think in the course of the season it is a quarterback upgrade compared to what was last year and he was so good already as a rookie. Like I, I, I think I'm clearly based on this conversation much higher on Neighbors than deeper is what do you think Fitz?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

I'm, I'm with you for him like Russ. Yeah, we're not getting vintage Seattle era Ross, but still he averaged 225 passing yards a game and 7.4 yards per attempt last season. It's not like we're facing a Saints type quarterback situation, sorry D Row where it's Tyler Shocker or Jake Haner or Spencer Rattler. Like you know, I think the Giants are going to get competent quarterbacking. There is a scenario where maybe we get Jameis for a few starts which would be a bonanza for all his pass catchers and especially Neighbors. And you know, maybe we get some Jackson Dart too. Dbro likes him more than I do but not necessarily a bad thing for Malik Neighbors. So I, yeah to me Neighbors is still I've, I've got him at wide receiver 5 but I've not fully come to terms with how I want to rank Puka Neighbors and Brian Thomas. To me that's a really tight bunching at four through six.

[Ryan Warmley]

Deborah, do you want to think Malik.

[DBRO]

Neighbors has wide receiver one overall upside because to rank him that high, I think like he has to have that type of upside for me and I don't see that at all for Neighbors.

[Ryan Warmley]

I do. I think, I think, I think Brian Thomas Jr. Has a better chance at being wide receiver 1 overall this year than Neighbors does. But I would say Neighbors has that kind of upside. Especially if, I mean if, if Dart is as good as. As you believe he is, dbro, then I think he will start early in the season. I mean just the first round. Quarterbacks always, they start earlier and earlier. It feels like every year. And I, I think if he is good. Neighbors was so good last year and he. Again this depth chart is not imposing. There's. There's no Travis Hunter here that's going to take away targets, right? Like they're like he is going to get every target he can handle. So I do think there is that kind of upside.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Put it this way, dbro, if I told you Jameis Winston was going to make 10 starts this year, would you think that Malik Neighbors had wide receiver one upside?

[DBRO]

I would. This is a rust thing. I don't like Russ and I think he hurts this overall offense.

[Ryan Warmley]

I think it's very fair.

[DBRO]

The number of starts that he makes this year will hurt Malik Neighbors. If you were telling me this is Winston. Yeah, I'd be. I would bump up my ranking. He'd be a top five wide receiver for me, no doubt.

[Ryan Warmley]

I don't think there's a ton of argument about some of these other guys here. I mean, I'm a little not worried about Amon Ross. St Brown. He's really good. But I'm curious to see what the offense looks like without Ben Johnson. I mean this is still a first round pick. I'm not, like I said, I'm not overly concerned. You know, Nico Collins. I think a lot of people are going to agree with where he's at. A.J. brown. D RO do you want to take 20 seconds? Just clear the paint on Drake London.

[DBRO]

Dude, I love Drake London. I think that his ceiling is so much higher with Michael Pennicks. Like I've got Drake London as wide receiver 7. I think he is a dark horse candidate for wide receiver one overall this year. You look at how much consolidation because really the path for any one of those guys to say you have a path for wide receiver 1 overall there doesn't need to be a ton of target competition that's going to impact you. Getting to. You probably need 10 to 12 touchdowns. At least you're probably going to need to sniff in that 160 to 180 target range. Who's taking that away from Drake London? If Michael Penix can unlock, and we saw this over the back half of the season, unlock what we haven't seen from Drake London and that's the downfield role. Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, they, they're not taking away red zone targets away from Drake London. So if they're not going to take away the red zone targets away from Drake London, he's getting the red zone usage. So the touchdowns can be there, the downfield usage and not all this check down Charlie crap we got from last year out of Kirk Cousins. That's what could elevate Drake London and it gives him that type of ceiling.

[Ryan Warmley]

Does lad McConkey belong in this tier? I mean, you guys all have. And Erickson too. You're all in consensus. You have him wide receiver 11 this year, which is where he is in ECR. But do you see that as a part of this tier two or more? The top end of tier three fits.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

I'm okay with putting him in this tier, but like he's clearly at the bottom of the tier. To me it's either that or he's clearly at the top of the next tier. Like he's almost a firewall between the two tiers. Okay, can I expand on what you were saying about Amon Ra real quick?

[Ryan Warmley]

Go ahead.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

I mean it's for me it's not just Ben Johnson leaving. Although that is is definitely a concern. Like his fantasy scoring was down last year. Amon Ra went from 17/2 point PPR fantasy points per game in 2023 to 15.2 last year. That's still really good, of course. But for Amon Ra St. Brown to get within two fantasy points per game of where he was in 2023, he needed to set a career high in touchdowns with 12 last year. And he boosted his catch rate by 9 percentage points to a career high 81.6% which is just nuts. He had been living in the low 70s, 81.6 and it's because his targets fell off. He went from 10.3 targets a game in 2023 to 8.3 targets per game in 2024. And like two fewer targets a game. The emergence of Jameson Williams was a big part of that, I think. And that's why I'm not like, I don't think Amon Raza slam dunk middle of the first round wide receiver anymore. I think he's more like a guy you should be looking at on the turn in the first round of Redraft.

[Ryan Warmley]

We've got to move on D row, but do you have any just quick thoughts on St Brown? I know you've been a big fan of his in the past.

[DBRO]

I, I don't disagree with anything that Fitzy said. I've got Amon Ra as my 11th overall player. I've got a swath of running backs ahead him and I think he, he belongs on the turn. I just think like Amon Ra. My problem with Amon Ra is I don't see an outcome where he just absolutely buries me and burns me as the wide receiver one overall. And if that's the case, he's just a mid tier low end wide receiver one. I mean, there's a lot of guys we could talk ourselves into with that.

[Ryan Warmley]

Do you guys think. Actually, before I move on from this tier, I see it as there's maybe about five running backs that are kind of sprinkled in amongst these first 11 receivers at some point in your rankings, but I kind of feel like all 11 of these receiver names we've just mentioned should be off the board by about pick 16. Because I really don't think outside of, you know, Bijan Gibbs, Barkley, Genti, Derek Henry, like, maybe you throw another one in there. For me, it's really probably those five. Outside of that, I want my first two picks to be coming from this pool of receivers. Do you see it similarly DBRO or no?

[DBRO]

I. I have more running backs in there. Like, I think Christian McCaffrey deserves to be back in this conversation. I think Bucky.

[Ryan Warmley]

I'm too scared to draft McCaffrey. I. I can't take him over.

[DBRO]

I'm just saying where I'm at, I'm back in on cmc. I think Bucky Irving deserves to be in this conversation. I think Derek Henry. I. I'm honestly shocked, shocked, Worm, that you don't believe that Derrick Henry deserves to be in that kind of.

[Ryan Warmley]

No, I say. I would say Henry is the fifth of those. I'd say Bijan Gibbs, Barkley, Genti Henry.

[DBRO]

But the other part about it is I think that in the Inside, the top 20, the two top tight ends, Trey McBride and Brock Bowers deserve to be in that too. So that, that pushes down the back end of this wide receiver tier.

[Ryan Warmley]

Okay, I so do you see it that way too, Fitz? Because for me, the back end of this receiver tier I would definitely rather take than like, I like those tight ends but I would just rather take one of these receivers and then I.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Do have the top 10 receivers in the top 15 overall. And then McConkey, I've got a little further down. I've got some. I've got a group of running backs in between number 10, AJ Brown and then lad McConkey at 11.

[Ryan Warmley]

Okay, and is it the similar group of names though at running back fits? I mean like obviously Bijan, Gibbs, Barkley, Gente.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I mean I've got those five squeezed into the top 15 and then the guys I've got in front of McConkey are guys like HN and Josh Jacobs and Bucky Irving.

[Ryan Warmley]

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[Pat Fitzmaurice]

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[DBRO]

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In a very big way.

[DBRO]

Real people, real perspectives. This kind of star studded a little bit, man. We got Ricky Williams, NFL player, Heisman Trophy winner. It's just the compassionate choice to allow.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Players all reasonable means to care for themselves.

[DBRO]

Music stars Marcus King, John Osborne, from Brothers Osborne. We have this misunderstanding of what this.

[Ryan Warmley]

Quote unquote Drug thing is Benny the.

[DBRO]

Butcher Brent Smith from Shinedown Got be real from Cypress Hill NHL enforcer Riley Cote Marine Corps Vet MMA fight Liz.

[Ryan Warmley]

Caramouche what we're doing now isn't working.

[DBRO]

And we need to change things. Stories matter and it brings a face to them.

[Ryan Warmley]

It makes it real.

[DBRO]

It really does.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

It makes it real.

[DBRO]

Listen to new episodes of the War on Drugs podcast Season 2 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you.

[Ryan Warmley]

Get your podcast and to hear episodes one week early and ad free with.

[DBRO]

Exclusive content, subscribe to Lava for Good.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Plus on Apple Podcasts.

[Ryan Warmley]

All right guys, the next group of names here Jackson, Smith and Jigba. This is starting at wide receiver 12. Jackson, Smith and Jigba, T. Higgins, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson and Devonte Adams. That runs from wide receiver 12 to 18. I want to hit on a couple of these names but I know the big disagreement here is going to be Devonte Adams based on your guys rankings D Ro I'll let you go first on why this is too low dude.

[DBRO]

Matthew Stafford is a kingmaker and we've seen this year after year after year and I think that we're seeing, we're going to see again. I'm and we've discussed this in other shows but I'm lower on Kyron Williams. I think that Matthew Stafford and we're looking at what he's done as a quarterback over the last few years I think and we all like to talk about regression. We could talk about regression in a positive sense. Matthew Stafford has had horrible passing touchdown rates and what have we seen out of his past game weapons like Cooper cup fading to into oblivion. We talk about Puka Nakua not being healthy, Tyler Higby just being a supporting guy. Matthew Stafford 3.3, 4.6, 3.9 passing touchdown rates. I'm old enough to remember in his first year with the Rams 6.8%. So I think we're going to get more passing touchdowns. Come back to this offense. I've got Devonte Adams as my wide receiver 10. I know that's aggressive but Adams showed no falloff last year with the Jets. Like after he got to the jets he was top 28 in both separation rate, route win rate. He was on pace for almost 180 targets and he was the wide receiver seven in fantasy points per game. Like he was giving Garrett Wilson a run for his money every single week and we could talk about okay fine, that's Aaron Rodgers and stuff like that Matthew Stafford also hyper targets. Guys, it's legit. Just Adams and Puka. And you want to throw Tyler Higby into that, that trio, but he's a very distant third. I mean both of these guys are going to get 160 plus targets this year. And Adams hasn't fallen off at all. He's a wide receiver one.

[Ryan Warmley]

You said you have him at 10 and then did you say you do have puka at four or did you have.

[DBRO]

I've got puka at four. Yep.

[Ryan Warmley]

Okay, four and then Adam's at 10. Fitz, what do you think?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, just to give people a little peek behind the curtain here, when we were briefly messaging each other about the show over the weekend, mainly just figuring out when exactly we were going to record it, DBRO said something like, you know, this ECR for Devonte Adams is crazy. And like I could just feel the contempt oozing from DBRO as I'm reading this message. And then I look at ECR, he's at wide receiver 18. I look at my rankings, he's wide receiver 17. It's like, okay, I guess are going to fight about this. And look, none of what I'm going to say is meant to disparage the abilities of Devonte Adams. I'm a Green Bay packers fan. I love devonte, but we have to acknowledge that. But you know, Devonte is playing with another prolific target earner in Puka and that Devonte is now 32. And like, even though Puka and Devonte are going to combine for a big percentage of team targets for the Rams, that target percentage is still likely to be under 50%. I mean not, not far under, but still under 50%. And for Puka and Devonte to both Finish as top 10 receivers, we are obviously talking about a big juicy season for Matthew Stafford. Like, like let's open the bidding at 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. That's probably the bare minimum Stafford would need to float top 10 fantasy seasons for two receivers. I mean, he could certainly do it and has done it, but Stafford has only hit 30 touchdowns once in the last nine years and he's 37 now.

[DBRO]

And like was that for with Fitzy?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Wait, say that again.

[DBRO]

His. I said what team was that for Fitzy, The Rams.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Nine years ago. Well, maybe it was. No, no, no, you're right, you're right.

[DBRO]

41 touchdowns with the Rams.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Sure, I know, but that's, that's once in nine years. Like his, his. I checked draftkings and his futures, like his over under on touchdowns is 24 and a half for this season, you know, and like the, the yardage total is higher. I think he's at like 4,100 yards. And something like that's encouraging to see. But look at it this way. I mean, from the time Devonte Adams joined the jets in week seven last year through the end of the regular season, like Aaron Rodgers played reasonably well. He was the QB15 for fantasy over that stretch with Devonte and he produced at about a 3,900 yard, 29 touchdown pace. And over that period, Devonte Adams was wide receiver 9 1/2 point PPR fantasy points per game and Garrett Wilson was wide receiver 27. And it's not like any other jets pass catcher was doing much. So it's really hard to get like high level production from two receivers in one passing attack unless the quarterback's just putting up insane numbers. And hey man, like I don't do rankings based solely on how the projections work out. Like I do want to capture contingent upside. What if, what if puka missed like 4 or 5 games? Like if Puka misses any week, I'm ranking Adams as a top five receiver that week. Well, unless he's up against, you know, Patrick Certain or some other ace cover guy. But still, I think we at least have to tip our hats to the projections. And getting top 10 fantasy seasons from two wide outs on the same team is a pretty tough needle to thread.

[DBRO]

I don't disagree that it's a tough needle to thread, but you did toss out Aaron Rodgers stats towards the end of the year. I'll give you some Matthew Stafford stats. So he did fall off the last three regular seasons games. So weeks 15 through 17 before that. So weeks eight through 14 with Pukinakua and a washed version of Cooper Cup, Matthew Stafford was averaging 273 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. He was on a full season pace. So this is seven games, guys. So almost a half a season. He was on a full season pace for 4, 600 passing touch, 4,600 passing yards and 39 passing touchdowns. So I, I think Stafford's still got a lot more left in the tank. And I think the Rams showed us in a small snippet of last year with A, an in much improved wide receiver, two in, or should I say one wide receiver, one B in this passing attack. Stafford's gonna have a huge resurgence this year.

[Ryan Warmley]

Where Stafford ranked for you, Debra?

[DBRO]

QB13. He's on the fringe of QB1 for me.

[Ryan Warmley]

Where's your ranks for you, Fitz?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I've got him like in, in more mid range QB to like, I've got him QB20 right now. It's probably too low. I got to move him up a little bit, but he doesn't run.

[DBRO]

Also in that, in that stretch, he was the QB11 in fantasy points per game.

[Ryan Warmley]

Okay, other names in this group. So again, Adams is actually at the bottom of this grouping. Watch for 18 in ECR. The other names, JSN, T. Higgins, Tyree Kill, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson. I don't know, I mean, some of these names are obviously on the older end like Tyree Kill, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin is sneaky older than you might realize. JSN obviously had a nice step forward last year. He's got a new play caller now in Seattle, but also, you know, no DK Metcalf around anymore. Tyler Lockett, you know, T. Higgins sticks in Cincinnati. Garrett Wilson gets reunited with his college quarterback and there is nobody else to catch passes in that passing game. It's kind of, kind of an interesting group of names to parse through. Deborah, how do you look at this grouping of guys from 12 to 18?

[DBRO]

There are two guys that just stand out. Like, I don't disagree. One, if Mike Evans can stay healthy and he played a lot of games last year, showed no fall off. Like Mike Evans is going to be a value again this year. But the two guys that I want to highlight, especially in this tier is Jackson, Smith and Jigba and Tyree Kill. Like, I will not be drafting Tyree Kill as a top 15 wide receiver. Just. I'm not doing it, man. Whether you want to talk about the risk, you want to talk about the age, you want to talk about the fall off of last year with two even back in the lineup, Tyreek showed his age. He was the wide receiver 24 in weeks 8 through 16 with 2A back and his, his per route metrics all fell off and stuff. So you can count me out on Tyree Kill this year and Jackson, Smith and Jigbub. Like I loved him going into last year at this price point. What the heck are we doing here, guys? Like, are we serious with this? Like, he was the wide receiver 17 in fantasy points per game last year. What improved about his situation? Like Sam Darnold versus Geno Smith, give me Geno. Every single time. The, the offensive line we hope is going to be better if it's not Sam Darnold. Yikes. If Sam Darnold's bad, then when we get Jalen Milroe, they're not throwing the ball with him. They've already said and come out and say they're going to run more this year. So JSN is a low a dot guy. He is, he's a low, he's a short area guy. So I mean 137 targets last year. Does he get back to that this year? I, I just, there's no way that I can rank Jackson, Smith and Jigba this high man. Like look as I'm projecting like I've got him at wide receiver 20 I look at him as a mid to low range wide receiver too and I've got a lot of scary questions about him. If he's not getting fueled by a ton of targets every single week and if that offense goes more run heavy if Cooper cup does show any sign of life and he cuts into those underneath targets, if this offense is just straight up bad man I or they're just run heavy like it it all nothing points me to saying Jackson's been The jigba should be 1 a wide receiver 1 in rankings or 2 where's the ceiling? Like if you're ranking him as a wide receiver 12 I hope they're ceiling for him to be a white like a top five to seven guy and I just, I don't see the outcome there.

[Ryan Warmley]

Fitz, I'm curious what you think. I, I think Debra makes a good point about the ceiling. I don't, I don't know that I see a reasonable realistic outcome where he finishes a top five receiver. Having said that, I do still think he's going to get a ton of targets. I mean they got rid of DK Metcalf. Like I mean maybe unless you think Cooper Cup's turning back the clock. Like I, I do think JSN is going to lead this team in targets like by a sizable amount is how I'm looking at this. And even with those targets not coming from Sam Darnold, I do think that means like close to 100 catches.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I mean everyone was freaked out about Justin Jefferson last year and how Sam Darnold might pose a threat to Jefferson's fantasy value and that really wasn't the case. I mean Darnold was okay, so I'm not really too worried about that yet. I would prefer Geno Smith, but and the other thing is just I don't know dbro like I don't want to look at the full season with JSN because of how well the back half of the season went for him over the first eight weeks of the season, I want to say there was only one game where JSN had more than 69 receiving yards. But then from week nine on, he had a seven game stretch. Seven straight games with at least 74 receiving yards, topping out at like 180 in one of those games. Like, he was a different guy over the second half of the season. High volume guy. And he's totally poised to be a high volume guy again. So, yeah, like, I don't think he belongs in that upper tier, that second tier with like, you know, Lad and everyone who's above Lad, but I do think he belongs on the next tier.

[DBRO]

Do you, do you think the passing rate goes down for Seattle? Because that's the big worry for me. Like, I, I think they are going to dial back the passing rate a ton for a team that was seventh in passing attempts last year. Do you think they sniff anywhere close to that this year? Fitzy?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I mean, closer to league average probably.

[DBRO]

So if they drop from 7 to 15th, that's not going to impact JSN.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Oh, I mean, marginally, like, okay, no more than what that leads me to.

[DBRO]

Like, he's not a wide receiver one then for me, like with the, with the massive passing volume and, and over the stretch that you, you cited Fitz, he was wide receiver 8. So like, okay, we're, we're dinging him a little bit at wide receiver 12, but I, I, I just don't think we're dinging him enough.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I mean, wide receiver 12 is where I have him and I do think, like, you know, he's part of a tier that stretches from like 12 to, to 18. So, you know, like, I'm reluctant to categorize him as a wide receiver one, even though technically, yes, I guess at wide receiver 12 I do have in there. So I'm not like, I'm not totally, I don't totally disagree with what you said, dbro, but like, I'm looking more at the strong second half of the season he had as like the harbinger of what's to come.

[DBRO]

I just look at it, it feels like a scenario we're buying a guy at probably close to, if not his ceiling, like last year, if that was his ceiling with what the way that I'm projecting this offense this year. I think he takes a step back, but the question is how much of a step back. And there's just other guys. Like, I, I would rather bet on, like, I'd rather bet on Mike Evans continuing to do Mike Evans things. I rather bet on T. Higgins in the passing right there. I'd rather bet on Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, Devonte Smith, and still doing the things that they've done.

[Ryan Warmley]

So it's just, I wanna, I wanna hit on Garrett Wilson for a second. I, I feel like I'm gonna be getting a lot of him if he stays ranked here. I mean, he's never missed a game in his three years in the NFL. He's only 24 years old. He's coming off of career highs in catches, yards and touchdowns. You know, the, the lowest he's finished in his three years outside of the middle year, which had just the worst quarterback situation of all time, is wide receiver 19. That feels like the floor. He's now with his college quarterback again. I, I really like Garrett Wilson. I think he should be closer to the top of this tier than the bottom.

[DBRO]

D, bro, I, I'm totally with you. Like, he's wide receiver 17. I've got him a smidge higher at wide receiver 14. But, but dude, I, I just feel like this is, this is Justin Fields and DJ Moore all over again. And we were wrong then, and I feel like people are going to be wrong now. Like, I, I, I'm going to be drafting Garrett Wilson. I have no problems with expecting. And even if you want to sit here and say, okay, fine, it's not Justin Fields. Tyra Taylor think he's good enough to support one wide receiver? And who else is catching passes for the Jets?

[Ryan Warmley]

Like, I, I would rather have him, some of the guys ahead of him. I would just rather draft Garrett Wilson than Tyree Kill. Like, I'd rather, I'd rather draft him than T. Higgins. Honestly, like Terry Mc Lauren.

[DBRO]

I, I just, I'll draft him over jsn. I'll say it.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah. Fitz, what do you think about Garrett Wilson quickly, before we move on?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I'm low man on the staff on, on Garrett Wilson and like, I could make a case for moving him up a little higher. So Justin Fields best season with The Bears was 20, 23. He missed four games, but Fields was on pace for about 3,400 yards and 21 touchdowns. D.J. moore was wide receiver 6 overall and wide receiver 10 in fantasy points per game that season. So there's definitely a case to be made for Garrett Wilson being at the top of that wide receiver two tier.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah. All right, let's go to the next group of names here. This runs from wide receiver 19 to 29. We're going to kind of do larger groups as we get further down just to get through all the names and we don't have to hit on everybody but just to read through the names from wide receiver 19 to 29, Rasheed Rice, D.J. moore, Marvin Harrison Jr. Zay Flowers, Cortland Sutton, Devonte Smith, DK Metcalf, Xavier Worthy Worthy, Jameson Williams, Chris Godwin and Chris Alave Fitz. I wanna, I'm curious who stands out to you, but before I want to just highlight the name that stands out to me, which is Marvin Harrison Jr. This is somebody that we were very high on last year. Somebody who, despite the fact that, you know, everybody is viewing his season as this major disappointment was not bad for a rookie receiver. Almost 900 yards, he had eight touchdowns. It was a difficult situation in terms of the usage that Arizona was putting him into and not giving him a lot of easy targets and easy ways to, to get fantas. And he didn't quite have that great connection with Kyler Murray. But this is still a remarkably talented player that we thought of as one of the best wide receiving prospects to come into the NFL in a few years. Still only 22 years old. I'm not saying he should be ranked higher right now, but I think a year from now there's a very real chance he's a tier or two higher than he is right now.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Possibly. Yeah, I'm a little conflicted on him. Like I, I would be pretty surprised if he did not outperform his rookie numbers on a per game basis. I expect that to happen. Like the target count in his rookie year wasn't what we'd hoped for and a lot of the targets were of the deep variety. Like his average depth of target was 13.4 yards. That's like not ideal. Harrison isn't just like some vertical receiver. You know, he should be an all over the field receiver like Jamar Chase and average depth, the target of 8.7 yards. And he did catch deep balls, but he also caught a little, like little hitches, bubble screens, things designed to get him the ball quickly, easy completions and let him make magic after the catch. And I want more of that from Marvin Harrison. It does seem like, I don't know, something about the, the Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison pairing just worries me a little bit. And you know, like I was on a guest on a show the other week where one guy was worried that it was because Tyler has trouble seeing over the line of scrimmage and maybe that's not ideal for, for Harrison, you know, I'm not sure. I totally buy that theory, but like it's a plausible explanation so yeah, I mean, I do think Harrison's gonna have a better season, but like, I don't know if this is going to be the breakout we're really hoping for.

[Ryan Warmley]

One stat that Erickson likes to bring up a lot is that the wide receiver one every year is always the guy who led the league in red zone. And Marvin Harrison Jr. Was that guy for the Cardinals last year. I think it was red zone targets and not end zone targets. I'm sorry if I'm misquoting Erickson, but whichever one it was, Harrison was like by far the number one guy for Arizona last year, you know, ahead of like Trey McBride and anybody else in the team. They just weren't connecting on those targets. You know, having said all that and kind of making the upside case dbro at the same time, you know, we're, we're hoping that we're saying he's really talented, but the problem last year was that, you know, the situation didn't work out because of the play calling and play design and his usage. And also the quarterback. It's the same play caller and the same quarterback this year.

[DBRO]

Yep. And I'm below ECR on Marvin Harrison Jr. I've got him at wide receiver 24 right now. I just to buy into Marvin Harrison Jr. I feel like I've got to buy into Kyla Murray and I can't do that, man. Like he's played he to be on it like on a per drawback basis, he's been God awful over the last two years. If it wasn't for that contract, you'd be hearing quarterback controversies in Arizona. And I just, I just can't man. Like it not only like we brought up points about the, the offensive coordinator and, and the usage of him last year. I've brought this up on previous shows, but week one through nine you're looking at a guy that ran only less than 30 of his routes with horizontal breaking routes. Almost 50 of them were vertical breaking routes. Now weeks 10 through 18, that flipped a little bit. 41 horizontal, 38 vertical. So that did change. But I worry that we see a revisiting by true betsing to last year's. Oh, Marvin Harrison Jr. Is our downfield guy. He's gonna be running clear outs because the fact of it is who the heck else is going to be doing that on the Arizona depth chart? They don't have that guy. So like they had multiple spots this off season. Like go add a field stretcher, add speed, add somebody that can give you that verticality to this offense. So you're not asking that that out of Marvin Harrison Jr. They didn't do that. So like it's the assumption of rational coaching. Can I tell tell you definitively that the OC for Arizona is not going to do dumb stuff this year and have Marvin Harrison Jr. Running clear outs and it's Trey McBride again operating as the heavy underneath guy for the Arizona Cardinals? No. Can I tell you that Kyler Murray is going to magically throw 25 passing touchdowns this year? Year, probably not. Can I tell you Kyler Murray is going to be a good quarterback this year on a per drop back basis? Again, probably not. So it's just, it comes down to I'm, I'm probably going to be close to ECR with Marvin Harrison Jr. I'm not going to bury him because the people. If I'm wrong, I want people to get exposure to him in drafts. But I have a harder time seeing the outcome of where he crushes his adp. I see more things pointing to Arizona doing dumb stuff and Kyler playing bad for what will be a third year in a row. And that'll lead me out on Marvin.

[Ryan Warmley]

Harrison Jr. Fitz, who else stands out to you in this range of players again? Rice, more Flowers, Sutton, Smith, Metcalf. I skipped over Harrison, Worthy, Williams, Godwin, Olave. I mean, I feel like Devonte Smith is maybe a little underranked. Xavier Worthy is maybe a little underranked. Chris Olave, if he is not, you know, if he's healthy and on the field, I think is definitely underranked. Who stands out to you here?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Rashee Rice, like so many. There are a lot of smart people in the fantasy industry who are really high on Rishi Rice. So it scares me a little bit to know where I have him ranked like as a high end. Wide receiver three. I mean.

[DBRO]

Yeah, where do you have a Fitzy? Because I think we might be hand holding.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

No, you're like you're fading him even more than I am. I've got him at okay.

[DBRO]

Because I haven't met wide receiver 32.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I've got him at 28 and even, even Erickson. Erickson is high man at like wide receiver 20. But I think that might still be behind ECR or where's ECR on him?

[Ryan Warmley]

ECR is 19.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

19. Okay, so there's one spot behind. Yeah, I mean so. So yes, Rasheed Rice was terrific in 2023 when Patrick Mahomes said Rice and Travis Kelsey and pretty much no one else to throw to. But it was sort of gimmicky production. Rice had an average depth the target of 4.8 yards and last year when he got off to the fast start before the injury like Xavier Worthy was totally getting his sea legs in that offense. Like he had not really made an impact other than that opener where he just had the touchdowns and like there's no denying that Rasheed Rice is really good at what he does. But there is no denying the existence of Xavier Worthy who really came on down the stretch last season and I think is a better conventional wide receiver, a guy who can actually beat defenders with his route running. Plus they still have Hollywood Brown who wasn't there when Rice had the big year. In 2023 they drafted Jalen Royals who allowed of people like Kelsey is still there. And like we should also probably consider the possibility that even if Rashee Rice isn't facing a suspension this year for that Dallas drag racing incident is is still a little bit of a knucklehead. So yeah, I just like I can't get on board with Rasheed Rice as like a late second round pick like some of these sharp people seem to believe. I just, I don't get it.

[Ryan Warmley]

I'm curious when you look at this Chiefs team because you have rice 32 as you said, it looks like you're the one guy on the staff who has Worthy even lower than Rice. And let me know if these these rankings aren't updated since it's been a few days. You also have Travis Kelsey's tight end seven and yet you have Patrick Mahomes. You have him lower than consensus but you still have him as a top 12 quarterback. So I'm wondering how the math adds up that Mahomes is going to produce that much. If you don't have a single Chiefs receiver inside the top 30 and even their tight end is no longer a top five tight end for you.

[DBRO]

You it's wide receiver by committee. It comes down to they're going to spread the ball around you. In some weeks it could be Hollywood Brown. Some weeks it could be Rasheed Rice. Some weeks it could be Xavier Worthy. Some weeks it could be Travis Kelsey. Some weeks it could be one of the running backs catching passes out of the backfield. I think Mahomes has shown that he can get there as a low end QB1 but my problem with this passing offense and there's a few passing offenses that we could talk about just that I don't really have a ton of interest in this year because I feel like it's going to be an absolute dumpster Fire mess to figure out where the ball is going on a weekly basis. You could talk about Buffalo, you could talk about Green Bay. Kansas City is firmly in that and so Mahomes I think can get there. But Rice, the bigger problem that I have with him, dude, is there's one role, there's one high volume role in this offense and Rice played it weeks 1 through 3 he had an 8 out of 4.8, 27.6% design target rate rate. Xavier Worthy played this role in weeks 13 through 16. When Fitzy talked about, he came on, he was playing the Rasheed Rice role. His ADOT was 6.3. His design target rate was almost 26%. There's one role. Who gets the role? I don't know. I have no clue. I don't even know if both of those guys and maybe they share it based off of matchups on a week to week basis. So for me it's like one of those where it's like I don't think these guys burn me based off of how this offense operates this year. That's why it's like I can't definitively tell you when I've seen Rasheed Rice operate in that role. But also in the same exact freaking season I've seen Xavier Worthy operate in that same role. I cannot tell you definitively that. Okay, yeah, sure, Rice comes back and he's gonna be that guy again. We've seen Xavier Worthy do the same dang thing. Can you, can anybody definitively tell me without their like outside of just convicting the priors that that will emphatically be Rashid Rice? I don't think anybody can definitively say that.

[Ryan Warmley]

Diva, I know you want to talk about Zay Flowers. We got to move on, so just keep it quick. But do you think he's too high, too low or just right at wide receiver 22.

[DBRO]

I think people are drunk with ranking him where they're ranking him. He hasn't produced as a wide receiver too in any season so far. Wide receiver 32, wide receiver 31 and fantasy points per game. We know what this offense is going to look like for Baltimore when they get in the red zone. It's going to be Lamar's legs, Derek Henry running the ball in Mark Andrews or hey guess what, DeAndre Hopkins. So I don't see the ceiling, whether it's passing volume or touchdowns for Zay Flowers to all of a sudden in his third year magically be a wide receiver too when he has never done that in any point of his career at this point.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah, I kind of get that. He had that stretch in the middle of last season where he was really awesome, but outside of that it was, I think, underwhelming relative to what his.

[DBRO]

His 8 runs on 8 red zone targets all of last season. Does anybody think that's going up? I don't, no.

[Ryan Warmley]

I think it's still going to be a lot of Derrick Henry and the tight ends when they're in close, so it's going to need to come from the big plays. All right, welcome to this week's Chasing Challenges, brought to you by Microsoft. Just like the athletes who push boundaries and redefine what's possible, business decision makers today are turning challenges into opportunities. Microsoft meets you where you are with tools and guidance that help you make an impact. With safe, secure AI solutions, players and teams are facing their own challenges. In this segment, we spotlight athletes or teams that are currently undergoing a challenge what this means from a fantasy or betting standpoint, and examine how we think they can overcome them. Whatever challenge you're facing, Microsoft empowers you with the expertise to say, bring it on. This week we're discussing the challenge faced by Chris Olave as he enters a 2025 season marked by question marks surrounding both his head health and his quarterback situation. Olave has been a favorite early target for fantasy managers in recent years. As a polished young wide receiver product out of Ohio State, he topped a thousand receiving yards in each of his first two seasons in New Orleans, and many expected his touchdowns to jump up in year three. Instead, last year was the toughest of his career. Olave only played six full games after suffering another concussion. Even when he played, Alave was out. Produced by Rashid Shahid and now the Saints have one of the potentially worst quarterback rooms in the NFL this season. Sorry, D Bright 0olave's first priority is getting past the concussions and hopefully enjoying a fully healthy season. But even if he does, he'll be catching passes from unknowns like Tyler Shook, Spencer Rattler or even Jake Hayner. The talent is still there, but Alave may not have the highest ceiling as a fantasy receiver, and the injury history gives him a low floor, too. He'll look to overcome these challenges to bounce back for the Saints and fantasy managers in 2025. That's it for this week's Chasing Challenges. Remember, Microsoft's AI solutions empower you you to take bold steps and make informed decisions, sparking new ideas to help drive your business forward. With Microsoft as your trusted partner, you can navigate your journey with confidence, finding innovative solutions and Reaching new possibilities. Visit Microsoft.com challengers to learn more. All right, guys, a couple handful of names here in the early 30s. Jalen Waddle, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Jerry Judy, Tettero, McMillan and George Pickens. Dbro, I know you well, actually, I don't know if you're gonna agree with me on these two head to head. I know you're gonna agree that the rookies are both too low, though. I like Tet better than Travis Hunter for this year. Part of that is just kind of playing scared and like, I need to see it to believe it with whatever the usage is going to be in Jacksonville. And. And because of that reason, I'd rather just take like the almost guaranteed if he's healthy, like 120 targets, Ted's gonna see from what looks like an improved passing game at the second half of last season. So I do like both of these guys higher than where they are in consensus, but I like Tet a lot higher.

[DBRO]

I mean, I. I've got both of these guys. I've got Tedro McMillan and Travis Hunter inside. Of my top 24 wide receivers for this year, I've got. Got Tedro McMillan at wide receiver 22. I've got Travis Hunter at wide receiver 23. And I think you're looking at a situation with Ted McMillan. Who else are we worried about? Like, I understand Adam Thielen was gobbling up targets last year. If we're talking about where they're at in their respective careers, do we really think that Adam Thielen, I, I understand, like, okay, fine, Thorne in the side, he's going to be the number two in this passing attack, but still, like, where he's at in his career, is he going to draw targets over Tedro McMillan, who, where he was drafted, the talent upside and everything, I don't see it, man. And the thing about Carolina that I'll point out real fast is I also think when we saw the emergence of Bryce Young, this team was 13th in neutral passing rate. So there is stone's throw away from being a top 12 passing rate team. So we could also be underrating the volume for Carolina this year from the passing department. So that's why I've got Tet where I've got, like, I'm going to bet on the talent. I'm going to bet on underrated volume. And the same thing for Travis Hunter, man. Like, I don't think you're Jacksonville and you make that type of aggressive move up the board to go draft a freaking corner. I think Travis Hunter is going to be a full time wide receiver. I didn't think that going into the draft but considering the landing spot, considering the aggressive move up, you don't make that move up and give away that type of capital for a guy you are going to play as a full time corner. They could say whatever the heck they want to. He is going to be featured as a wide receiver and if it's only him and Brian Thomas Jr. Catching passes there because partial Parker Washington, Diami Brown, Britton, Strange, none of these guys are going to garner over a 13 or 14% target share. It is not going to happen. So you're looking at Travis Hunters probably walking into 22, 23, 24, 25%. Like yeah, then that's going to put him somewhere around that top 24 range.

[Ryan Warmley]

It just feels Fits like this. You're getting a discount on Tet because I don't see any way if he has a healthy season that he is going this low again next year. Like I think this is the lowest he will be for the next several years. He's just that talented of a guy and again is going to get all the targets he can handle in Carolina. It reminds me of like a I don't think he's as good a player as Malik Neighbors, but it reminds me a lot of last year what I was saying about Neighbors as he's never going to go this low again. He's going to get every target this year and if he's healthy he is guaranteed to be a value at his current cost comparison. And again, I don't think he's as good as Neighbors but in a similar vein is how I'm looking at it. It and it looks like based on your rankings you agree fits. You do have Hunter below Tet like me. Do you? Is that because of concerns about what the usage will be or do you think like even if Hunter is getting enough snaps to make us happy on the offensive side of the ball that you would still prefer Tet?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

I'm concerned. Hunter says he wants to play defense like he, you know, basically demanded that beforehand. He said he's going to play some defense or like he wouldn't want to go to whichever team drafted him and wasn't going to give him defensive snaps because of that. I do not think he sees like an 80% snapchair offensively and like the top receivers are all around like a 93% snapshare. Guys like Jamar Chase, CD Lamb or whatever. You're not seeing that. I mean it just chips away your possible production at the margins. So no, like I can't, I can't get Hunter inside the top 20 or 25.

[Ryan Warmley]

I feel like Ted is easily my favorite name in this group and even I like him ahead of names in a lot of the names in the tier ahead of him. Is there anybody else in this group worth highlighting fits? You know, Jalen Waddle, Jordan Addison, Jerry, Judy, George Pickens.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Waddle. Let's talk about waddle. Like ECR is wide receiver 30. Debro Erickson and I are all above consensus on him and I'm actually the lowest at wide receiver. 27. I'm a little, I'm a little mad at Debra.

[DBRO]

I mean I'm at 26. So we're like right next to each other, bro.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah. And I mean like here's a guy who was a top 10 draft pick who began his NFL career with three straight thousand yard seasons and has a plausible reason for the drop off. Last year missed a couple of games. Tua missed a couple of a few games and like the Miami offense was just dead in the water with, without Tua. And like Waddles average 9.3 yards per target over his NFL career spanning four seasons. Like that is an incredibly good number. This guy's a really good player and he's, he's ranked too low in eclipse.

[Ryan Warmley]

Are his target share has gone down every or his total number of targets has gone down every season of his career. He only has one year over 10, 15 yards, doesn't have a double digit touchdown season. I like Waddle too. I'm just kind of stating the case of why maybe he's ranked a little bit lower than we think he should be. I mean obviously last year was the worst of years career but as Fitz points out, DBRO extenuating circumstances there in terms of the injuries.

[DBRO]

Yeah. And. And the other part about this is if people are doing early drafts and whether that's best early redrafts, I want people to get exposure to Waddle too. Because the other part about it is if you're getting, you're doing drafts right now, depending on whatever format you're in, I want to be above consensus because I still think that there's a possibility Tyreek Hill is gone. So I want people to get exposure to Jalen Waddle because if Tyree Kill is out here, man, Waddle is going to go screaming up the ranks like he would be a top 20 like he would be somewhere around where Tyree Kill is currently ranked. Ranked. So people are using our ranks right now in the early Part of, you know, we're saying the summer, then I want people to get exposure to Jalen Waddle as well.

[Ryan Warmley]

Next group of names here from wide receiver 36 to wide receiver 44. Calvin Ridley, Roma Dunes A. Khalil Shakir, Brandon Ayuk, Juwan Jennings, Debo Samuel, Jacoby Myers, Jaden Reed and Stefan Diggs. Fitz, who stands out to you here?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

I want to call out Debro for hating on Jaden Reed. Like dbro's barely got.

[DBRO]

I don't hate him. Matt Lafleur hates him.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, well, like he, he kind of forgot about Jane Reed down the stretch last season. But I will point out that in the first 26 regular season games of his career that he played with Jordan Love, jaden Reed scored 17 touchdowns. Like that. That's a full season pace of 11 touchdowns and that was a season and a half, so. And like it should be noted, that includes three touchdown runs. But that's part of the appeal with Reed. I just think, you know, like, he's not an anchor player for your team, but as a third or fourth wide receiver, I think you could do worse.

[DBRO]

I. My question about it is when would you ever feel comfortable about playing Jaden Reed in your lineup? Fitzy. And my other point about the first.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Season and a half of his career.

[DBRO]

That entire time when he was scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip and we knew that it was going to come crashing down. I mean we all talk about regression here year. Jaden Reed in 2023 was the wide receiver 43 and expected fantasy points per game, like playing way above his usage and ceiling with touchdowns, doing all of that. The other part about Jaden Reed that I, I have big time worries about, dude, is you are we, are we defend? Are we all like 100% that Savion Williams is not going to threaten his role in that offense as the dairy Belt Debo and do it maybe better than Jaden Reed ever did.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

That's true. He could be the new jet sweep guy for the Packers.

[DBRO]

He could be the new Jaden Reed. He could take, take his role from him. And that's why, like, I'm not ruling that out, man. Like third round capital. Looking at the players, Savion Williams is basically Jane Reed upgrade, is he not?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

I know about upgrade, man. Like Savion has trouble.

[DBRO]

He's faster, he's bigger, he can do more in the run game and he's just as physical. I don't see how.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

He's not, he's not a route runner. He doesn't catch the ball well. Like, he's got, he's got a lot to learn. Yeah, I don't know about that, dude.

[DBRO]

A lot of scheme touches, bro. Like, we talk about it like a lot of the Jaden Reed uses is he can't beat man coverage. It's, it's a lot of funky usage, man. He had a really good run out, but I think the runout is gone, dude. Like, so I, yeah, I can't, yeah, I'm, I'm out on Jaden Reed definitively.

[Ryan Warmley]

Who do you guys think finishes higher between the first two names in this group? Calvin Ridley and Roma Dun? I think it's an interesting conversation. I think with Dunes that you can easily paint the picture for having a higher ceiling. A prospect we really liked last year, he's now in year two. We think the offense is just going to be a lot better for everybody in general, but there are a lot of mouths to fill there, especially coming out of the draft. Calvin Ridley has never in a healthy season finished. He's wide receiver 36 right now in rankings. He's never been outside the top. I think it's 27. In a fully healthy season, he is the clear cut number one target in this offense. He's now playing with the number one overall pick. Your mileage may vary on you know where Cam Ward, you know how he holds up to previous number one overall picks, but it's still the quarterback that went first in the draft and he's going to be the number one guy and he's ranked as literally the last wide receiver three you can get. That feels too low. Like, I feel confident that a healthy Calvin Ridley is going to return value, but the ceiling is higher for Odunze. So Fitz, who do you like better between the two?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Ridley. I think I'm above consensus on Ridley. I've got him wide receiver 32 and I'm right in line with O'Dunes. They've got him at ECR. Wide receiver 37. Yeah, I mean, like, I think Cam Ward's going to be really good for Ridley because Cam Warden is an aggressive downfield throw.

[DBRO]

I, I, this isn't even close. Like, I, and, and I, I made a face when you said that I think Rome has the higher ceiling. I, I don't think Rome has the higher ceiling at all.

[Ryan Warmley]

You don't think if he puts it together in year two and is the prospect we thought he was last year.

[DBRO]

Okay, no, dude, hold up, hold up. Let's, let's back this up. Let's back this, this Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams hype train back up for a second here. Have we seen Caleb Williams in the NFL to this point? Point support even one one high end fantasy producer, much less multiple. Unless you think Roma Dunes A is going to be the clear wide receiver one of this offense and I don't know how we make that case but unless we think that K like okay then Caleb Williams is going to have to support two weapons, maybe three. I can't say that at all like with any stretch of confidence that Caleb Williams has shown anything in his NFL career year to prove that he could support one high end weapon much less two. So for me, no the ceiling is way lower for Alma Dunes. A like Calvin Ridley. Yes, I agree with Fitzy. Like I've got him at wide receiver 31 in my rankings right now. Calvin really's gonna have a better year just simply based off of he's not catching freaking passes from Will Levis and Mason Rudolph dude like easily. He was the wide receiver 28 and expected fantasy points per game. Wide receiver 36 in fantasy points per game last year with dreadful quarterback play it's going to do nothing but get better. And there's nobody else for Tennessee to catch passes. I, I think the floor and the ceiling for Calvin Ridley are immensely higher for Roma Dunes. I think people are getting way lost in the sauce of hype on Caleb Williams when we haven't seen anything close to substance that saying that he could back up any of that hype at all.

[Ryan Warmley]

I mean, I mean we haven't seen it but we've only seen one year in a pretty terrible situation with a coaching staff that wasn't even helping him watch was doing absolutely nothing to, to make him better. A terrible offensive line. Like if you think, if you think Ben John, I'm not saying you but I'm saying if one thinks that Ben Johnson is like this, you know, God's gift to play calling and is this going to be this great head coach that everybody thought he was for the last few years as, as a candidate and he now gets a guy who is really talented in Caleb Williams. Just we didn't see it put together in year one. Like I am not at all writing him off. I think it's fair to say like maybe people are getting getting a little over their skis with it and that's reasonable. And I actually agree that Calvin Ridley should be ranked higher than A Dunes because I'm much more confident in him returning value than Odunze is. But I think if, if both Ridley and Oduns they hit their best case scenario this year. I do think A Dunes is. Is. Is higher.

[DBRO]

I think Ridley's higher, man. I think you're just looking at like target, floor, target share. The fact that he's the number one, maybe not the number three dude. Roma Dunes A. I mean, I mean we can make cases of. Okay, he's the number two option. Would it surprise anybody if he's the number four option in that passing attack?

[Ryan Warmley]

Well, no, that. And that's why the floor I think is lower than Ridley. But I'm saying ceiling like it because again like this was a prospect that was like very clean coming.

[DBRO]

I mean that also comes back to Caleb Williams dude. Like he was legendarily bad as a rookie. Like it's like, let's not like mince words here. He was bottom five, bottom ten and every single efficiency, accuracy metric you can find out there. So even expecting a big step forward in his second year, we're hoping he's league average. Anything above that is just wish casting because I mean we could talk about the situation for days. Caleb compounded all of those problems and made them exponentially worse.

[Ryan Warmley]

I think that's right. I'm just not. I'm in no way shape or form am I writing him off after one bad year in a terrible situation. Fitz, what do you think about it? This situation?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Yeah, I'm a little more willing to give him a mulligan, granted. Like I'm not presuming year two success for him, but like the offensive line has been dramatically upgraded. Ben Johnson is a much better play caller than Shane Waldron. So like I'm trying to be optimistic, but I like, I agree though I have concerns about Roma Dunes target outlook with this team. Like what if Luther Burden is the new Amon Ross St. Brown for Ben Jackson Johnson.

[DBRO]

What if Colston Loveland's the number two in the. In the passing attack? What if DJ Moore just runs away as the clear number one and everybody else just is picking scraps?

[Ryan Warmley]

Well, and again, not to belabor the point, these are all reasons why I think the floor. I totally agree with you. Is lower in a Dunes and why I think it's fair to rank him where he is. I'm just saying the, the upside scenario I think is higher than you're saying. But we've. We don't need to keep, you know, belaboring that point. The last group of names here, Ricky Piersol, Josh Downs, Cooper cup, Michael Pittman Jr Jr Darnell Mooney and Christian Kirk. I want to ask like with Piersol we didn't really talk about Brandon Iukajuan Jennings kind of in the last tier but these three 49ers receivers are ranked 39, 40 and now Pierce all at 45. Is this going to be kind of a tricky situation to decide who's the right guy to target or Fitz? Is it easy for you to say which of those three at cost you're most interested in going after?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

It's funny. Piersol is the lowest by ECR and DBRO and I both have him as our Highest rank ranked 49er.

[DBRO]

Heck yes.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Debro's super high on him. Debro's got him as like a mid range wide receiver 3. I've got him as a high wide receiver 4. In fact, I thank you Worm for reminding me to, for bringing up the 49ers receivers and, and I do have to give Debro a little grief. Like Debro, the way you have these 49er receiver rank receivers ranked, it's like you've, you've got some sort of, what was the HBO show the Leftovers where they had the rapture type event where all of a sudden and 5% of the Earth's population disappears. It looks like you're ranking the 49ers receivers as if George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey have disappeared off the face of the earth and are not going to catch any passes for the the Niners this year.

[DBRO]

I mean I've got, I've got Pierce saw as wide receiver 28, I've got Jennings as 36 and Brandon Ayuk is 41. I don't think I'm there with that. Like that's not, I'm not stepping forward and saying all three of these guys are top 20s.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

I do think like unless McCaffrey and or Kittle miss significant time, like one of these three guys is going to be a colossal disappointment.

[DBRO]

And I, I, I agree with that.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

I tend to think it's going to be iuk. Like he's, he's got a major injury to come back from and like he had the, the one great season where everyone fell in love with him. Like I think he's a good player but also like he was just way over his skis with efficiency. Like his, his yards per route run and yards per target metric were like unsustainably good during that 1300 yard season.

[DBRO]

So I don't disagree with you. I've got him as my lowest 49ers wide receiver at wide receiver 41. Man, I, I think this is going to be Ricky Pierce all show. I, I, I've got him ranked the highest out of those guys. I mean Brandon IU coming off of the devastating injury, when does he ramp up? What does that look like? What does his opponent effectiveness? And then while Juwan Jennings was really good last year, we're also talking about a, a wide receiver that's been buried on the depth chart. He's entering his age 27 season. So it's like I'm not discounting like what he showed last year. Obviously that is what, you know, what's putting him ranked where I have him ranked. But also, dude, can we not talk about like Ricky Pierso got an audition as the leader of this passing attack last year to be to end the season and he flourished. He killed like in the final, I mean he crushed it, dude. In the final two games of the season, he was wide receiver 7, wide receiver 14. He saw almost a 22 target share. He had over a 30% first read share. He was producing 2.84 yards per route run. I he's a former first round pick who had his rookie season derailed. Derailed by off field stuff and injuries and stuff. So like, yes, I want to be above consensus and over the moon on a former first round pick. That showed at the tail end of last year when San Francisco said we're going to give you an audition as the number one guy. Can you be that guy? And he answered the bell.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

I know we're gonna get, we're gonna get crushed for like overdoing it on a small sample size.

[DBRO]

But like I don't care.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

It was a very convincing two game sample.

[DBRO]

It's a small sample size until it's not a small sample size. I would rather be ahead of the curve on a player and p and be aggressive on a player and people are like, when we turn over the cards for the 2025 season, all of us saying, why did we rank Ricky Piero? He's a former first round player. The team made moves in the off season to say we believe in this guy, gave him an audition. I would rather be above consensus on a player like that than be left holding water saying, oh man. But I mean I was in a Juwan Jennings. I mean come on. Like that's, that's not the way that I want to play this.

[Ryan Warmley]

Any other names quickly before we get out of here. That stand out in this grouping? Josh Downs, Cooper cup, Michael Pittman Jr. Darnold Mooney, Christian Kirk. That rounds out the top 50. Either of you?

[DBRO]

Christian Kirk? I, I, I, he's going too low. I think it's the injury discount. But when we saw him healthy last year and I know it's been varying degrees of health over the last few years years he was still crushing in an efficiency metrics and I feel like with the the supporting cast that's around CJ Stroud this year I think he's going to have a bounce back and we were all I I emphatically remember this boys we were all talking about last year which Texans wide receiver do we want to draft this year and now we get to play the same game. Except the Texans are coming off a down year with CJ Stroud and the only wide receiver in Houston that you're having to pay up for is Nico Collins. Yeah, count me in massively on Christian Kirk and a player that's not even on this list. Jaden Higgins. Both of those guys. I want to be at or above consensus on this year because we're not having to pay for it.

[Ryan Warmley]

Any final thoughts?

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Fitz I'm definitely not paying for Christian Kirk. I totally disagree. I've got him at wide receiver 60 dera I just like it's too it's too messy with like Higgins, Noel and.

[DBRO]

Kirk and I know you think C.J. stroud is going to have a bounce back season.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

Well I do but that offensive line is still trash. I do worry about his time to throw like that's going to be an issue. And the Houston defense is really good so it's not like they're going to have to play shootouts every week. I just like it's a we know Nico is going to get his in that target picture. I just don't know what like how the leftovers are going to be sorted out from among the Iowa State rookies and and Christian Kirk and then just like I don't have any major beef with where Downs is going but like it is Jameson Crowder syndrome. Everyone likes the small slot receiver archetype and like I tend to think those guys are overvalued and I just don't know Like I worry that Tyler Warren is going to usurp a lot of what Josh Downs does with the short area targets.

[DBRO]

I'm pretty much with consensus and with you here Fitzy like I've got downs at wide receiver 49 and Pittman and wide receiver 50. I I just again going back to pieces and parts of offenses that we want to buy into offensive ecosystems. Do the Colts feel like that type of team? No not for me.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

And down Downs is good at at what he does, but it's a low ceiling.

[DBRO]

Yeah.

[Ryan Warmley]

All right, we'll go ahead and wrap up there. We went a little long, but obviously we're hitting on a ton of names today, so I hope everybody enjoyed that. For Debro and Fitz, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll see you again next week.

[DBRO]

Time.

[Ryan Warmley]

Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple [e-mail] review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros AI is redefining what's possible for your business with more unique challenges to solve and higher stakes than ever, Microsoft helps you stay ahead. Our trustworthy AI tools and guidance can empower leaders like you to drive greater impact. And with Azure's simplified platform management, we're helping businesses go further, faster, unlocking up to 150% improved output. Whatever challenge comes next, let Microsoft help you keep pushing forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com challengers okay, have you heard about this?

[DBRO]

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[Ryan Warmley]

Head to your local stores to try the OG Cool Rush for yourself.

[Pat Fitzmaurice]

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[DBRO]

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[Pat Fitzmaurice]

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[DBRO]

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[Pat Fitzmaurice]

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[DBRO]

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[Pat Fitzmaurice]

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[DBRO]

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[Pat Fitzmaurice]

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[DBRO]

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