Podcast Summary: FantasyPros – Top Predictions & Prop Bets for Super Bowl LX (Ep. 1951)

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume)
Episode: FantasyPros – Top Predictions & Prop Bets for Super Bowl LX (Ep. 1951)
Date: February 5, 2026
Hosts: Ryan Wormley (A) & Andrew Erickson (B)

Main Theme / Purpose

This episode is an in-depth Super Bowl LX (60) betting preview featuring analysis, predictions, and best bets by FantasyPros’ Ryan Wormley and Andrew Erickson. The duo breaks down Seahawks vs. Patriots from every angle, focusing on spread, totals, and prop bets, while blending expert insight with the perspective of an invested fan (Erickson, a Patriots supporter).

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Opening Banter & Setting the Stage

• Post-Conference Championships Recap:
  Both hosts reflect on their 3-3 record for conference championship bets. They were strong in predicting Patriots-Broncos and less so in Seahawks-Rams, attributing hits and misses to confidence in matchups and game outcomes.
  "We both went about three and three in the conference championship round … We were very strong on the Patriots Broncos game …" – Ryan (01:25)

• Personal Notes:
  The hosts discuss meeting in New Orleans and Super Bowl watch party preferences, emphasizing the emotional stakes of being a fan with a rooting interest.
  "I like to limit the amount of people I'm watching it with because I like to be honed … white knuckling this game here." – Erickson (04:02)

Super Bowl LX Matchup Analysis

Fan Perspective & Emotional Stakes

• Patriots as Underdogs:
  Erickson expresses excitement over the Patriots being Super Bowl underdogs, comparing past experiences (with Brady/Belichick) to the current new era (Vrabel/Drake May), and suggesting less pressure due to “arriving early” in their championship window.
  "From a grand scheme of things, yes, it's definitely gravy. But when you're actually watching the game … now it's like, no, we are expecting to win this game." – Erickson (05:52)

Big Picture: Unexpected Matchup

• Both teams weren't seen as preseason favorites (each over 60:1 to win it all), making the matchup a surprise.
  "This is really a rare occurrence of teams that really nobody thought would get to the super bowl …" – Erickson (06:33)

Matchup Tactics: Where the Game Will Be Won

• Which Team Is More Likely to Lead?
  Ryan believes that if either team jumps out to a double-digit lead, they'll hold it, as both are more comfortable protecting leads than mounting comebacks.
  "I think whichever team, if a team jumps out to a double digit lead in this game, they're holding onto it." – Ryan (07:00)

Point Spread Predictions & Analysis

Patriots +4.5 vs. Seahawks

• Erickson’s Pick: Patriots +4.5 (and outright)

  • Points to underdogs' strong record in recent Super Bowls.
  • Favors Patriots’ scheme and matchup advantages: elite run defenders (Williams, Barmore, Spillane), and corner Christian Gonzalez’s ability to limit, though not shut down, JSN (Jackson Smith-Njigba).
  • Highlights Seattle's slight weakness versus deep passes and Patriots’ ability for explosive plays, particularly with Drake May’s arm and legs.
  • Emphasizes Patriots’ strengths line up well against Seahawks’ offensive weak points. “I'm taking the Patriots with the points… I think there's a lot of value on the Patriots just to win outright.” – Erickson (08:02)

• Ryan’s Pick: Seahawks -4.5

  • Initially more confident, but less so after more analysis.
  • Argument: Close game favors Patriots (Vrabel’s coaching); if it’s not close, Seattle is more likely to win by a solid margin.
  • Seattle is a top-five DVOA team, with a defense that’s shut down nearly all non-Rams opponents.
  • Concern about the Patriots’ offensive struggles against elite defenses in the playoffs, whose wins were wound through defensive play rather than Drake May’s heroics. "If this game is close, the Patriots are winning … if this game is not close, the Seahawks are going to win." – Ryan (11:56)

• Consensus:
  Both agree: The likeliest scenarios are a close Patriots win or a comfortable Seahawks win, implying the spread is somewhat awkward for “middle outcomes.”

Game Total (Over/Under) Predictions

Total Set at 45.5 Points

• Ryan: Strongly favors the under, heavily crediting Seattle’s defensive mind Mike Macdonald (calling him "defensive McVay") with the ability to frustrate even very good opposing QBs with two weeks of preparation.

  • Also notes both teams’ run defenses are elite, which could result in more third-and-longs, fewer sustained drives. "I cannot really describe how emphatically I feel that Mike McDonald is just different … I am inclined … to the under." – Ryan (20:28, paraphrased)

• Erickson: Agrees and adds a preference for the under, especially in the first half (under 23.5 points), citing two defensive-minded head coaches and a trend for slow-starting Super Bowls. Notes historical first-half unders in Patriots Super Bowls. "I really like the first half game … under 23 and a half points in the first half." – Erickson (25:17)

• Both highlight:

  • Patriots offense has faced several elite defenses recently and averaged under 16 points per game in those playoff wins.
  • Seahawks defense’s only breakdowns have come vs. the Rams’ uniquely difficult offense.

Notable Quote

"This is an under pick by me driven almost entirely by McDonald himself. Like I just think that guy is special and you're giving him two weeks to game plan for admittedly a very, very, very good quarterback but still a second year quarterback in his first playoff run who has not played very well." – Ryan (20:28)

Prop Bets & Player-Specific Predictions

Favorite Props

Each host presents two props, with analysis:

Ryan’s Prop Picks

1. Jackson Smith-Njigba (JSN) Over 6.5 Receptions (Best Bet) [37:20]

   • Reasoning: He’s the offense’s focal point, generally beats this number unless Seattle is blowing out a weak opponent or Darnold completely falls apart.
   • “This is the Super Bowl. He's their best player … I'll be very … surprised if he doesn't go over that.” – Ryan (37:20)

2. Drake May Over 37.5 Rushing Yards

   • Reasoning: May’s legs have provided offensive spark when plays break down; Seattle has given up significant rushing yards to mobile QBs. Especially likely if the offense struggles in other ways.

Erickson’s Prop Pick

1. Travion Henderson Over 0.5 Receptions (Hard Rock Best Bet) [41:51 & 46:42]
   • Reasoning: Seahawks allow the most catches to RBs; when Pats are underdogs, Henderson always goes over receptions. One catch cashes it, and negative script could push more targets his way.
   • “Travon Henderson … over half a reception … all he has to do is catch one pass … Seattle Seahawks. Part of that's because they play a lot of zone coverage …" – Erickson (41:51)
   • Also mentions great long odds for Henderson to go over 15 or even 30 receiving yards, as a fun flier.

Additional Prop Angles

• Drake May to Lead Game in Rushing Yards (Longshot, appealing at 5:1 or better) if RBs are stifled and May scrambles; noted May has gone over 60+ rush yards in two playoff games. (41:37)
• JSN as First TD Scorer considered but passed up due to insufficient odds. (38:58)
• Seahawks Pass Catcher as First TD Scorer makes sense given Patriots’ stout run defense. (39:18)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On fan anxiety:
  “I like to limit the amount of people I'm watching it with ... I'm gonna be white knuckling this game here.” – Erickson (04:02)

• On public consensus and fading the public:
  “There is a like the overwhelming consensus, at least in terms of what I have seen online is like people taking the Seahawks and it is like very tempting ... we should be fading the public here.” – Ryan (20:28)

• On Mike Macdonald’s defensive genius:
  “I think Mike McDonald is like the chosen one on the defensive side of the ball … I think he is a true savant genius, sees the game in a different way even compared to elite defensive play callers.” – Ryan (20:28)

• On best bets and “drinking the juice”:
  “You're not drinking the juice if you lose. You only drink the juice if you lose. So we're not gonna lose this bet here. Henderson is going to catch at least one pass.” – Erickson quoting Seth Wilcock (46:42)

• On personal rooting interest:
  “I cannot say best of luck to your Patriots, Erickson. I simply refuse, like, pretty much the entire country. I'll be rooting for Seattle on Sunday, but I hope that you have a good time and I hope that the Patriots lose.” – Ryan (50:16)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Super Bowl Intro & Fan Stakes: 01:25–06:49
• Spread Analysis (Patriots +4.5 vs Seahawks): 08:02–17:02
• Total Analysis (Under 45.5): 20:28–30:54
• Prop Bet Segment: 33:41–45:20
• Hard Rock Best Bets: 46:42–47:19
• Closing and Light-Hearted Banter: 47:19–50:41

Summary Table: Predictions & Bets

| Segment | Ryan (A) | Erickson (B) | |----------------------------------|---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | Spread | Seahawks -4.5 (leans Seattle big win) | Patriots +4.5, likes Pats outright | | Total (45.5) | Under | Under (especially 1H under 23.5) | | Top Prop Bet | JSN o6.5 recs, May o37.5 rush yards | Henderson o0.5 rec (Hard Rock Best Bet) | | Top Hard Rock Best Bet | Under 45.5 (total) | Henderson o0.5 rec (total game) | | 1st TD Angle | JSN considered | Seahawks pass catcher preferred |

Final Thoughts

• **Both hosts agree on a defensive, possibly low-scoring battle between two surprise Super Bowl teams, with the outcome hinging on coaching tact, stellar run defenses, and which side (JSN/Seahawks pass vs. Pats secondary and Drake May’s legs) can create explosive plays.
• Erickson, the lifelong Patriots fan, is cautiously optimistic but puts his best bet on a prop rather than a side. Ryan remains wary of the public consensus (favoring Seattle), but sticks to logic highlighting Seahawks’ overall quality and defensive prowess.
• Both agree the under is the safest “fun killer” bet for this unique Super Bowl matchup.