B (2:54)

I mean really excited. I again Patriots or underdogs? I kind of like that from the perspective of Patriots fan because so many of these Super Bowls we've been to, it's Belichick, it's Brady. It doesn't like you kind of just throw everything out the window because all these guys do in this spot is win for the most part. Again they didn't win every single super bowl but they were in every single super bowl till the end. They had a chance to win all the Super Bowls. They also had a chance to lose a lot of the Super Super Bowls too. So this is a little bit of you know, unchartered waters with Mike Vrabel and Drake May and a lot of new players that are playing in the super bowl for the very first time. Although the one staple being Josh McDaniels. You know he was part of a lot of those Super Bowls playing an integral role especially as the offensive play caller in five of those Super Bowls for the Domingo Patriots. Some wins and some losses. But I'm really excited. Sunday can't come early enough. We're doing the live stream myself, Matt Peralt and Pat Fitz Morris on the betting pro show. So we're gonna be breaking things down at 4 o' clock Eastern Time, two and a half hours before kickoff. Gonna have a lot a bunch of food watching it with the parents in law, the wife.

A (3:55)

I was gonna ask what you're doing for the watch party itself. Are you the type who when your team is in the game you can't be around a ton of other people?

B (4:02)

I, I like to limit the amount of people I'm watching it with because I like to be honed. It's usually just like a small collective of friends. It's not going to be like a massive if again if I have no interest like, it's just, you know, this team here in the steam here, I'd rather go to a big super bowl party because then it's just more about having fun. But this is where, you know, I'm gonna be white knuckle in this game here. Like, it's gonna be, again, the way that I'm expecting to play out, I think that it's going to be end up being a close game. But, no, I'm super excited again, anyone I saw with a Patriots shirt, sweatshirt, hat at the airport on Bourbon street, didn't matter where I was, went to Florida afterward for a day, I was like, go, Pat. And it's just like, it just felt really good to be like, yeah, we're all into this. Let's go see what happens.

A (4:42)

Do you. Do you feel. And I promise it's not that it's not a very long show. So we have plenty of time to get the predictions. So if people want to skip past this, they can. But I just like picking your brain. As an actual fan of the team, do you feel like you. There's almost like, less pressure? There's always pressure when you're in the super bowl, right? Like, there's no guarantee you get back, but you're the underdog. This was a season where, not that the Patriots are fraudulent, but, like, they played a really easy schedule. Like, very much felt like this was a season where it's like that year where they're. You're too early. Like, you. You expect to have this long Runway with Rabel and Drake may as this, like, super bowl contending combo for a decade. Like, really, there's no reason that shouldn't be the case for the next decade. So the fact that you're kind of a year too early, this is probably not going to be the best team of the Drake May variable era. Like, you will have better opportunities and like, the fact that you have this long Runway, like, does that to you make it a little less pressure. You said you're gonna be white knuckling the game. Is it almost more like, kind of gravy and, like, if you win, like, what, like, you're not going to apologize for anything, but if you don't, like, yeah, we're going to be back as a contender next year, and this wasn't the year anyway?

B (5:52)

Yeah, I would say so. I think that from a grand scheme of thing, yes, it's definitely gravy. But when you're actually watching the game, oh, Patriots are 14 nothing. Of course, now it's like, no, we are expecting to win this game. Although like the prec. Or the before the game starts. The Patriots under rocks. So yeah, I like that. I feel like they don't have as much pressure on them. But again, to the point of the Seahawks, I mean they weren't really viewed as supposed to be here either. So it's just been a really weird year. In terms of the contenders, I mean both of these teams I believe were listed longer than 601 odds to win this.

A (6:28)

That's the. Yes, that is correct. But like 60 to 1 was the shortest of the two. Like that's. Which is crazy.

B (6:33)

So this is really a rare occurrence of teams that really nobody thought would get to the super bowl again, those that have Seahawks pages exact as Super Bowls. Like I mean, yeah, I just got to tip my hat to you. Like that's definitely would not have been on my card.

A (6:49)

So I really liked the Seahawks. Over was one of my favorite bets.

B (6:52)

Going into the season as well. Yeah, to your point.

A (6:55)

I like both. I like both these teams overs. I liked the Seahawks to make the playoffs and contend for the division. I liked the Patriots to like as a. As a good bet to make the playoffs just because of the schedule. I did not view them as a Super bowl contender. The Seahawks I liked better but also did not view them as a Super bowl contender. But I did view them as a legitimate like division contender playoff. Like I did really like these teams relative to their odds. I did not like them to make the Super Bowl. All right, we could jump into this year. I do think by the way you talked about like if the Patriots jump out to a lead, how you'll be feeling. I think whichever team, if a team jumps out to a double digit lead in this game, they're holding onto it. I don't think there's going to be like a crazy comeback in this game. I think, I think the first half is going to really matter because I think, I think both these teams are going to be a lot more comfortable if they have a lead in the second half, even if it's a small one. So I think that's something to keep in mind there. We'll start with the against the spread prediction here. That's kind of the, the pattern we've been doing on the show throughout the playoffs here. So again, like I said, it's Seahawks minus four and a half. I'll let you go first. Who, what is your side on that one?

B (8:02)

I'm taking the Patriots with the points at +4/2 and ultimately I think that they're going to win this game. That's the best bet that I would have for this game in terms of picking a side. I think that there's a lot of value on the Patriots just to win outright. So although we're just picking against the spread here, I like the Patriots with the points. Underdogs have been really good in Super Bowls. Last five Super Bowls, the under eggs have covered straight up. Now, super bowl trends are sometimes hard to hold too much weight because so many of those Super Bowls. Well, what, which side was Patrick Mahomes? Was he the underdog or was he the favorite? And so some of the super bowl trends can be a little bit noisy because it's always been Patriots teams or it's always been Chiefs teams. But I just like and I think I've talked about this on our prediction show before the championship games. Worm I liked the matchup against Seattle more than the one against the Los Angeles Rams. Like that's what I wanted the Patriots to draw specifically because I think that schematically they match up much better against the Seahawks than the Rams. I think what you look at them, how they match up defensively with what the Seahawks can do on offense, okay, you have an elite run defense. Both of these defenses have elite run defenses. So if they can shut down Ken Walker with Milton Williams, Christian Barrymore, Robert Spillane, those guys in the middle, then that makes the Seahawks a little bit more one dimensional. That's not necessarily a bad bet when Jackson, Smith and Jigba is the one dimensional piece to your offense in the passing game. But, but the Patriots have cornerbacks like Christian Gonzalez who maybe not can completely stop it. Again, JSN is going to win off as a player of the year, most likely for a reason because he's really freaking good. And like Christian Gonzalez I think is really good. But there are times this year, again, think back to that Falcons game. Drake London had like three touchdowns in that game. Like he had a monster performance. So I, I think that's going to be overblown a tad bit where people are saying, oh yeah, Gonzalez is going to completely shut down JSM. Like I'm like holding to like 80 yards receiving. Right? Right. That'll probably be a win in the book of the Patriots. I think they would take that, especially if they can keep him out of the end zone. So I like that match up there. And then in the interior pass rush again, going back to Barrymore, Milton Williams, that's where the Seahawks offensive line is weakest. You know, up the middle center, offensive guards and if you can pressure Darnold up the middle, I think that can create opportunities for him to make mistakes and make some turnovers. And on the seat on the Patriot side offensively, we just saw Matthew Stafford throw all over the secondary, especially with the deep ball. What are the Patriots done all year long is just toss the deep ball, create explosive chunk plays. Seattle's 14th in EPA per pass attempt allowed on passes over 20 plus air yards. Again, an elite defense up and down, but I would say they are a little bit vulnerable against deep passes. And you can always bet on Drake Main and make some plays with his legs off script. So even if that pass rush for Seattle gets behind the offensive line for the Patriots, that's definitely one of their biggest weaknesses, especially the way that Will Campbell has played since coming back from his injury, you're going to expect that pass rush to hit home. But if Drake may just make some magical plays with his leg, scrambles, escapes the rush and is able to move the ball, inflict damage downfield, well that's how you can see this offense creating plays and scoring points here. So I just like see a couple paths where I can buy the side of how the Patriots can win on offense where they can win on defense and ultimately that leads me to them taking them with the points because I just think that it's too many. Again the look ahead lines for this were Seattle -3 and a half before the conference champions get conference championship games even played out and now it's stuck at four and a half. So I don't think we should really look at anything from the conference championships to really change our minds significantly. We already saw Seattle beat the Rams and I mean the Denver game was bad weather. There was no BO Knicks. It was kind of more what I expected to see. As we bet last week, we like the under a lot in that game. So those are. That's my kind of long winded answer of liking why I like the Patriots here in this spot. So interested to see what you have to say because you have the Seattle as your pick.

A (11:56)

I was much stronger on Seattle my -4 and a half early and then take, you know we have this week off, right to kind of think about it more and play around with it and kind of settle into a more official prediction and I feel less confident about it than I did in the couple of days after we found out the matchup. Ultimately I am still going with it and the reason is I think if this game is close, the Patriots are winning and I think if this game is not close the seat. The Seahawks are going to win. And like, like, I don't see a world where the Seahawks win by like two or three points. Like, I don't think the Seahawks are winning by field goal. I trust Mike Vrabel enough as a tactician and a game manager. That late game, like even, even with a young quarterback and you know, obviously playing in his first Super Bowl, I just have so much faith in that coaching staff that I think Patriots pull it out if it's close, but if it's not close, I think the more likely team to win and obviously like a five point win wouldn't be a blowout. But like the more likely team to win, I think handedly is Seattle because they're just the better team. Right. This is by dvoa, a top five team like in that era since they like DVA started tracking, which I don't think is true. Right. Like, I think, I think most people watching this team would say this is not really like a top five team ever type of performance. And maybe some of that is just the baggage of Sam Darnold's career and maybe some of it is just like, you know, the eye test or, or whatever it is. It doesn't feel like that's true even if the analytics are saying it is. But the Seahawks, like you talk about, like, you know, they're susceptible to the deep ball. I think they're just susceptible to the Rams. Like, like the. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVeigh have played this team really well. I think they're, I think they're the two best teams in football this season. But if you go back to Thanksgiving, the points given up by The Seattle defense are 0, 9, 16, 37, 10, 3, 6 and 27. The 37 to 27 were both the Rams. Everybody else is scoring 16 points or fewer. And even going back earlier in the year, like, right. That's just since Thanksgiving, you know, those point totals are giving up. 22, 21, 24. Those are the biggest numbers. Not to the Rams. The only exception besides the Rams this year, where they really, like the defense got shredded, was the loss to Tampa bay that happened October 5th. Like, that was a very long time ago. So, like, this defense is very, very good to the point where I'm not looking at what Matthew Stafford did and saying, oh, this is the path for Drake, Drake May to replicate it and the Patriots to replicate it. And I'm now worried about the Patriots throwing deep on this defense. I think that is just a McVeigh Stafford Rams thing where we Saw. We saw it multiple times this year. They had this defense's number. Nobody else really did outside of the random fluky game, you know, against Tampa Bay. So I think that the Seahawks have a better chance of winning this game by a touchdown than the Patriots do. And, and that is the direction I'm leaning. The other thing too is there has been some pushback about the Patriots easy schedule narrative. Not saying that it wasn't easy, but saying like, well, hey, in the playoffs, like, look at the, the defenses they've played. The Chargers, really, really good defense. The, you know, Texans and Broncos, two of the three best defenses in football. Obviously Seahawks being the other one who they're about to play. But Drake May didn't look good in those games. Right? He did enough to win, but they weren't winning on the backs of the offense, like stepping up against these really good defenses. So I don't have a lot of confidence that they're going to do the same. Now, there was weather in a couple of that will, you know, presumably not be the case in this game. But I'm not looking at this playoff run like, well, hey, they beat these really good defenses. Maybe that, like, goes against the scheduling narrative. Like, yeah, the offense didn't do anything in those games. They won because they were facing Justin Herbert without an offensive line. They were facing the corpse of CJ Stroud and they were facing Jared Stidham in Blizzard for half the game. Like, and for as much as I have doubted Sam Darnold in a lot of these other games, like in the playoff run and week 18 and all that on the show, I'm not going to doubt him anymore, at least in terms of how he will play relative to the quarterbacks the Patriots have already faced on this playoff run. So I think this is a legitimate step up in competition, not just from what the Patriots have played all season, but from what they've played in the postseason as well. Not that they're going to be totally unprepared. Right. They have two weeks to get ready for it. They know this is a very good team. But, you know, I guess the way I would kind of simplify it is I'm reasonably confident in both run defenses doing a good job against the opposing rushing attacks. And I'm reasonably confident in the Seattle passing defense doing a pretty good job against Drake May and the passing offense. The one that I'm less confident in is the Patriots passing defense against the Seattle passing offense. That's the matchup that I think will determine this game. And it's a matchup where I am going to give Seattle the edge. And it's enough of an edge that I think if they win, they can win by a touchdown, which obviously easily covers this.

B (17:02)

Yeah, I agree with you. Where to me, it's Seattle blows out the Patriots or the Patriots win by field goal. Right. Like, that's kind of how I see this game. So it really goes against. You don't really want to make a pick against the spread if. Because that doesn't capture what outcomes we think are actually most likely to happen here. So you change the line to Seahawks win by seven. Okay. Now you're getting much higher payout. Same thing with just bidding on the Patriots to win outright. Don't sweat the spread necessarily where you can get more value for your. The pick and what you actually think is going to happen. Because again, these are sometimes more of like, it feels like a hedge a little bit more. Putting the Seahawks at four and a half where the market is on the side. Well, we're not really. We think the Seahawks could maybe kill the Patriots, but we think they're better. They're. They're more obviously better by the field goal, but not enough. We're like, well, we don't want to make them too much of a favor by a touchdown. Like, that's ludicrous. When what are the most often points scored, it's either a field goal or touchdown. Like, so. So, I mean, theoretically they could, you know, play like a team that won by four and a half, but you look up and they won by 10. Right. Because that's just the way that some of the scoring ends up working. So I agree with you there. Like, those are the sides that I would like to lie on. So I just. I like the Patriots on the money line. You like the Seahawks to win by, you know, six and a half points. I think that is the right way to approach this particular matchup. I did want to add just one last thing. I mentioned this on the trip to a bunch of different people. Drake May plays really bad in bad weather. He's played in bad weather at times this year. That's when he's looked his worse. When they played the Raiders in week one, people forget they lost to the Raiders. Yeah, it rained in that game. And Drake May did not look good. Like, he looked hardly. It looked like, oh, no. Like Patriots fans were way over their skis. Like they were never gonna be. They were never going to take this massive leap. You got to be patient with Drake May in Tampa Bay. That was a road game. It rained at the beginning in the first half. Drake may look terrible and yeah, I think that he has struggled a little bit with some of these weather concerns now. Hoping that's not a factor in the super bowl match again in Santa Clara. Hopefully the weather is fine. Just one thing I wanted to kind of layer in because you did bring up the weather in terms of the Patriots offense struggling. I do think that did have a major factor. Obviously playing top five defense is also going to play a role. The other thing too, and you mentioned the Rams because I know a lot of us looked at last week, oh, this was the Super Bowl. The Rams have been such a good team and I thought the Rams and Seahawks were probably, yeah, like DVOA wise. Just their bodies of work were just so excellent this year. I just want to point out how Mike McDonald was brought in to be the Seahawks coach to beat the 49ers, beat the Rams. Right. Like that was his main job because there was no way Seattle was ever going to get to the super bowl unless they got through those two offenses. And that's exactly what he, he was able to do. And you looked how well he performed in rematches against those opponents 8, 0 in terms of same season rematches. So when he got extra time and extra look at a particular offense, specifically when it was Shanahan or Sean McVeigh, like he threw his best punch in that second rematch matchup. So that's what concerns me about not wanting to overvalue the Seahawks here because they're coming off another big win against the Los Angeles Rams. Like again, I don't want to classify this as oh well, he's owned these offenses. No. But I think that he has had the upper hand, especially in rematches against those types of teams. And that's not the case here against Drake May and a Josh McDaniels offense that is very much different in terms of how they play offensively. So that was just one thing I wanted to mention.

A (20:28)

The other thing I will say too, to wrap up this point is there is a like the overwhelming consensus, at least in terms of what I have seen online is like people taking the Seahawks and it is like very tempting to say like, you know, we should be fading the public here. Like it is. It is so consensus. It feels like people are usually wrong when the consensus goes in that direction. So like that does make me nervous. Genuinely. I do want to let everybody know we have a special offer for them. Unlock a month of Betting Pros premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today use promo code FP1MONTH. Get access to tools like the same game Parlay tool, the Prop Bet Analyzer and the Prize Picks Play Prop Bet Cheat sheet. Don't miss out. Try it. Free for one month. Now available on iOS and Android. The other thing that I want to say here, Erickson, and I'm going to loop this into the totals and I'll go first on this one is I like you talked about Mike McDonald and specifically what he can do against Shanahan and McVeigh. I do think, and I have felt this way basically since he was the Ravens defensive coordinator in 2023. I think Mike McDonald is like the chosen one on the defensive side of the ball. Like like a lot of people. The Ravens obviously hired Jesse Minter who helped develop this defense with Mike McDonald when they were both working under week Wink Martindale in Baltimore. So a lot of people like Baltimore fans are like well we missed out at McDonald but we're getting like the other McDonald like the guy who helped put this together. I think Jesse M. Is really really good. I think he's a really defensive coordinator, great defensive play caller but I think it's sort of like Kevin Oconnell compared to Sean McVeigh. Like there are other really good play callers out there but but McVay is like the one. I think Mike McDonald is defensive McVeigh. I think he is a true savant genius, sees the game in a different way even compared to elite defensive play callers. So for that reason I am inclined, I think it's a good number. The 45 and a half is the total on the game. I'm taking the under and a lot of that is driven by like Mike Grable is a very good defensive coach too obviously. And the Patriots defense has been playing terrifically well again against you know, maybe not the best offensive, you know, opposition here in the playoffs. But they've been playing really well and deserve credit for that. They've been playing well, you know, all season, went healthy. Milton Williams is awesome. Like they match up well against Seahawks I think particularly on the ground as you already alluded to. But this is an under pick by me driven almost entirely by McDonald himself. Like I just think that guy is special and you're giving him two weeks to game plan for admittedly a very, very, very good quarterback but still a second year quarterback in his first playoff run who has not played very well. This is not a perfect team. It's not a good offensive line. It's and it is a Seahawks defensive front that I think can really take advantage of this offensive line. It is just a stacked, healthy, top to bottom, great elite defense against a good quarterback that doesn't have a lot else going for it. You know, again, there are good players in there, but not in terms of like epic super bowl matches. Going up against the best defensive football types of players to that same degree. And then you take the possibility of a Sam Darnold, you know, clock strikes midnight and everything falls apart. Like that's on the table, even if I'm not betting that to happen, which would of course play towards the under as well. So for me, like, I again, I do think it's a good line. I've been burned by taking the under against the Seahawks before because some, you know, Sam Darnold can just step up and you know, all of a sudden it's a spiritual under, but it hits the over. But, but for me, like, I cannot really describe how emphatically I feel that Mike McDonald is just different in terms of every other defensive mind in football right now. And these things are cyclical. I'm not going to say that that's going to last for the next 30 years of dominance, but right now I think he is head and shoulders ahead of even the second best defensive mind in the sport. And, and giving him two weeks to prepare for a flawed offense is, I guess, the way to put it. I'm going that direction. The other thing I want to say, and this kind of ties into the spread also is last year I felt like on all these shows everybody said the same thing. It was the Eagles are the better team, but the Chiefs have the quarterback. And you know, Drake May doesn't have the same prestige that that Mahomes did going into that super bowl. But it is kind of a similar thing of like, well, we like Drake May better than Sam Darnold, but the Seahawks are better overall team. I was picking the Eagles and I was like the only one on a lot of the shows that I did. At least I know I'm not the only one out there, but on the shows I was doing, I felt like the only one. And I kind of want to go back to that. Well, like, I think the Seahawks are the better team. So even though the Patriots have the better quarterback, like I'm going to trust what I think is the best defensive football, which the Eagles were last year. And I think that's the Seahawks. Seahawks were Texans this year. I think it's the Seahawks right now, obviously. And, and so I've taken the under in addition to the Seahawks on the side.

B (25:17)

I am also taking the under in terms of the total on this game. I think you made a lot of great points about McDonald and I don't want my analysis on him and how great he's done against Shanahan and McVeigh as a reason to oh yeah, well the Patriots are going to score a boatload of points because he can stop those offenses, but he can't stop Josh McDaniels because look like I don't want to get viewers or listeners confused by that. Fully expect him to throw a ton at drake man. Josh McDaniels. Even though McDaniels has a ton of super bowl experience, he is now, I believe this will be his sixth super bowl as an offensive coordinator again. He's even coaching more Super Bowls as assistants. He's been with the Patriots since dating back to their first Super bowl run ever, you know, in 2001 against the St. Louis Rams. So I, I do think that this is going to be a challenge for the Patriots offense overall, even if Drake May can make a few plays because that's really been the recipe for success for them against all these top tier defenses. Again, Seattle will be the fourth straight top 10 defense patriots who have faced in the postseason, their offense in the last three weeks in the playoffs has averaged under 16 points per game. Now the overall points per game is boosted because they have that one pick six against C.J. stroud. But offensively like when Drake May's been on the field, they have not been going over 16 points. The two defenses are allowing 18 points per game on average. So the offenses have obviously made a lot of their games go into higher scoring at 28.6. That's 46.6 points per game in terms of the total. So yeah, I understand why the total is where it is at 45. Again Seattle Seattle games 46.5 points Average Patriots games 44 and a half points so this is where the total is coming from. It's taking just the averages from these two teams throughout the entire season. But as we've talked about it already, the Patriots have played really bad teams for the majority of the season and their games have then averaged 44 and a half points. And what have we seen in recent weeks when they played tougher defenses? The games have been much lower scoring. So I have yet to find anybody again. To your point about what's the consensus? Yeah, Seahawks probably gonna win lay the points of Seattle. I have not heard much compelling evidence that this is a shootout. Now it doesn't mean that the game can't go over the total again. Turnovers happen, weird things can happen. But I'm not looking up and hearing things where you got to alt bet the this game to go over 60 points or something ridiculous like that. And then if that is the case, it's usually, well, Seahawks are going to put up a 40 burger on the Patriots and they're going to do most of the damage on their side because it's going to turn into a blow. In which case I would rather just alternate bet the Seattle Seahawks to win by 10 points rather than bet the game total because I just don't think this has the ingredients of a shootout. Kind of like what you talked about with an elite defensive play caller on one side with Mike McDonald and I mean Mike Vrabel too. Like this is where he comes from. Yes, I know that he has been in the CEO role with the Patriots. He's not calling defensive plays, but he does have a lot of input on what the defense does. And as a guy who's played in Super Bowls before, we've seen like two defensive, you know, minded head coaches. I think that the first half too especially they're going to be feeling things out here. So that's actually how I really like approaching this game as well as my official prediction here is actually the first half going under 23 and a half points. So I do like the entire game total to go under 45 and a half points. But I really like the first half game or yeah, the under to go on 23 and a half points in the first half. I think we're gonna see plenty of running attempts by both teams between Ken Walker and Ron J. Stevenson and we've seen at times both coaches, they don't care how inefficient they've been rushing the football. They're like, nope, we're going to establish the run in the first half regardless if we're only picking up two and a half yards per carry. Like they will stick to it even if it doesn't seem like it's working between Ramondre Stevenson and Ken Walker. You look at the Patriots this year in terms of what they've done towards the total in the first half. They're 12 and eight towards the over in the first half. So they have a slightly positive total hit rate over in the first half of games. But the Seattle Seahawks are 6 and 13, so they have not been a team that's necessarily been a bonanza for first half scoring. From a total perspective, they've done plenty of their Own damage scoring in the first halfs of games. And then to point back about, I've mentioned a couple times here before about Josh McDaniels, right? So he's one of the few guys that we can kind of look at and see like okay, well what has he done trend wise as the Patriots offensive coordinator? So he is three and two towards the over overall in games in the super bowl in his five Super Bowls as OC and three and two towards the over in the first half. So not really compelling either way. However, the average in those games is under 20 points per game. So that would put him under the first half, which here is listed at 23 and a half points in the first half of this Super Bowl. Here the Patriots haven't scored more than 14 points in first half of Super Bowls called by McDaniels. Four of the five games they've scored 12 or fewer points in the first half. So I think that just simply put, you got two defensive minded head coaches going head to head. I think the first quarter we could look up, it could be 0, 0 or 3, 0. A lot of Patriots Super Bowls started out really, really slow. Trust me, I remember all of them like there wasn't a lot of scoring. And I think McDaniels being a carryover from a lot of those teams, I think matters here. You also have two quarterbacks that have been kind of nursing some injuries, right. How's Sam Darnold's oblique gonna respond? How's Drake may shoulder gonna respond? I think they try to keep things simple in the beginning, keep it close and then in the second half I think you see these teams be a little bit more aggressive if we don't really see one team establish dominance. So again I agree with you. I would be riding with you on the game total going under 45 and a half points. But specifically my prediction just to be a little bit different here is the first half going under 23 and a half points.

A (30:54)

One other thing I wanted to hit on in terms of the under and sometimes this actually does have an impact and sometimes it doesn't. I don't know if this will be one of those times. Clint Kubiak is going to be the Raiders head coach. To what degree is there a little bit of distraction? Like obviously you spend your whole life working towards a Super bowl, like he is going to be focused and try to win. But like we have seen this sometimes where like Jonathan Gannon when the Eagles were in the super bowl going to the Cardinals, like there was a lot of talk about like how much was he focused on that game planning and was he or was he thinking about his staff in Arizona? And like, again, I'm, I. Sometimes it doesn't matter. Sometimes it does. To whatever degree it could matter. That's the offensive coordinator. And if he is, you know, at a 90% instead of 100%, just another, you know, direction pointing towards the under. I'm not saying that's a reason solely to take the under. We are already like it. But just it's in the back of my mind, I guess.

B (31:48)

I think that's a really good point and I don't have much to add from that angle, but I just think for a person like Kubiak, and again, we're all humans here, I think it just really sucks that he's kind of put into that position where you want to be all in on your team to win the super bowl, but you could nothing. I mean, look, we saw Matt Patricia basically coach one of the worst games ever and still get the head coaching job the next year with Detroit after he got completely destroyed by the Eagles in the Super Bowl. I remember seeing the social media comments about so did lion still have to hire this guy? Right. So again, I don't envision that happening with Kubiak. Again, you're a professional, you're able to focus on things, especially with all these athletes and coaches dealing with distractions on a day to day basis. But I do wish that there was more from the league where they could kind of prevent this. And I get that it probably can't go that way because teams need to hire coaches, teams need GMs, teams need to start rebuilding because, because all the 30, all other 30 teams don't care about this game. Like, they're like, we're trying to get better for next year and get back to the Super Bowl. So I understand it, but I do think that is another good point from the human element here. Again, a lot of players with super bowl experience, I think that matters here as well. So, yeah, just a lot of factors to. Right.

A (33:03)

I mean, even if he spends one hour this week thinking about like, hey, who would make a good defensive coordinator for me in Vegas, that's one hour that he's not thinking about.

B (33:11)

What are the schools like in Vegas? Because I'm moving my kids again, like, his wife calls him up, he's like, hey, like, what are we about this? What do we think about this house?

A (33:18)

Yeah, I don't really care. I'm not saying like that Kubiak is being unprofessional or anything I remotely not. Am I saying that? I'm just saying it's hard for the human element. Not in the back of your mind. Again, it is not a reason to alone for that take the under. But it is a small point in that direction.

B (33:34)

Like. Well, because again, I like the Patriots and I didn't even bring it up. You're the one that brought it up.

A (33:41)

I want to let everybody know that the winner of the fantasy football championship belts giveaway is Mr. Minion money. Please get in touch with our customer support agents@mailbagantasyprose.com with your mailing address and a screenshot of your YouTube account page while logged in. Once we confirm that, we'll get your prize shipped out. Again, congrats to Mr. Minion Money. And that email address is mailbagantasyprose.com we gave away a fantasy football championship belt in January, Erickson and we're doing it again for February. If you want a chance to win the ultimate symbol of fantasy glory, the fantasy football championship belt, courtesy of our good friends at Trophy Smack, the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware, then this is your moment. This massive gold plated belt is built to make a statement. It's bold, it's heavy and it's guaranteed to turn heads in your league. Don't just win your championship, wear it. To enter, all you need to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below on any of our videos and that's it. We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So make sure to turn on notifications so you don't miss your chance to claim this championship belt and flex on your entire league. All right, let's get some props in here Ericson, before we get out of here. I had a few that I was like picking between the two. I can kind of landed on the one I didn't go with but it was in my final two. Is Drake May rushing on the over the the attempts is six and a half. I actually don't know how much I like that. It's the rush rushing yardage of 37 and a half that I like. We have seen like just thinking back to the AFC championship game like nothing else is working. What was the best offensive play in that game? It was Drake May running the ball like with his legs. It's how they clinch the game. It's a lot of what they did like to the path to having that lead like that that is what was effective for them when nothing else Was the Seahawks. Like, I didn't actually pull up the numbers in terms of, like, where they rank against the league, but if you just look at their game logs going back, you know, the last couple of months, unless they were facing a team that had like, because there was a lot of like, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, you know, Stafford's not a runner if it wasn't one of those types of players. There were a lot of, like, rushing it. Rushing yardage totals in the high 20s, mid-30s from guys who had any mobility. And Drake May is very good at it. And in big games, runs more. And if. If nothing else is working as kind of not even a break glass in case of emergency, but just still like, hey, this is like what we need to do to win. Even with like the shoulder injury stuff, like, how much do you want to, you know, open him up to hits? This is a Super Bowl. He's not going to care about that. So I think that number being in the third, if it wasn't like in the 40s, like, that's too rich for my blood. That number being in the 30s and on Hard Rock Bet is 37 and a half, which is actually a little lower than you can get it elsewhere. I like the over on that, but that is my backup choice, my number one choice that I ended up settling on Jackson, Smith and Jigba over six and a half receptions. This is the best receiver in football this year. It's either him or Puka. Like, I think it was probably jsn. They're both awesome. Um, he is the best player on the offense, and I think the Patriots have a better chance of stopping Kenneth Walker on the ground than they do JSN through the air. So, like, I didn't want to. I didn't want to touch the yardage because it was up in the 90s. And that just gets like. It's just really hard to. To do it when it gets that high. But JSN gets over six and a half receptions most games. Like, unless, like. Like the game where they shut out the Vikings. They didn't need him that he didn't. But like, most weeks, he's in that 7 or 8 range. This is the Super Bowl. He's their best player. Like, I just. I'll be very.

B (37:20)

The.

A (37:20)

The world in which he doesn't get to seven receptions is the world where Sam Darnold completely falls apart in terms of a pumpkin and just can't get him the ball. Because if he. If Sam Darnold is good enough to get him the Ball. They are going to get him the ball. I, I, I think like jsn, I'm trying to think who else would even be in this conversation. Like I, I think he will be the single best player on the field in this game like relative to his position. So and again, six and a half. That's not that big of a number for a guy of his caliber and what he's done this season. You talked about him earlier like going to be offensive player of the year. He's a superstar and I'm happy to take him at at six and a half on the over.

B (37:54)

Yeah, I think that he's going to have his fair chances to win. The thing with Gonzalez that I think again not trying to overblow. Oh, Gonzalez is going to lock him down. I really don't think that's how this game plays out. Again, they're not going to line up on every single snap. This isn't Darrell Rivas or Stefan Gilmore where he just follows the snow. That same guy everywhere. Now maybe they do a little bit more shadow coverage with him because they do know that JSN is so heavily involved as a 35 target share type of player. I don't think the Patriots are just going to throw everything they've done on defense and just kind of deploy a completely different scheme just because of one particular matchup. It's a matter of does Gonzalez win the battles in the fourth quarter? Right. That's how the Gonzalez edge and works from a handicapping perspective. But from a props perspective, yeah, I think that JSN can still catch eight balls, still go for a lot of yardage. It's just a matter of do they keep him out of the end zone, yes or no. And do they limit him on a third or fourth down conversion? Does Gonzalez create a pass breakup? That is where you're looking to back Gonzalez and the Patriots defense against jsn. I think that's where it shows up. Not necessarily in the full county box score.

A (38:58)

Yeah, I, I did stare at JSN first touchdown score on hard rock. Bet it's plus 500. I wanted a little more out of it because I think there are other options. So I couldn't quite get to there. But if I had to bet, I do, I do think he probably scores a touchdown in this game. But first touchdown I couldn't quite get there so I went with the receptions.

B (39:18)

I do like the angle from Seahawks pass catcher as first touchdown because the Patriots the majority of touchdowns they give up. I believe it's either first or second highest in the NFL is through the air just because you can't run on this defense when they have all their guys healthy with Williams, Tonga Bar, more Spillane. It's just and Seattle has not been efficient enough on a down to down basis to rely on. Oh it's going to be especially without Charbonnet because I think that they're they use him at the goal line for a reason. Right. Because he was good at the in the red zone, not the goal. And let's say that Walker can't score but I think it's just a little bit more of a reason to hey, maybe they throw the ball a little bit more closer to the end zone. Before I list off my prop, I do want to mention with the Drake May, I had a follow up question for you. Would you like to wager on Drake May to lead the game in rushing yards? So we did talk about earlier how we don't we could see a path where both run defenses shut down Ken Walker shut down Ramondre. That would mean Drake May would probably be the next most likely player to have the most rushing yards. Unless you see one of these other Henderson breaks off a big run or Shaheed breaks off a big run. Now would that be a way that you would I know that you said you didn't like it at 40 yards. I'm not sure 40 yards would get him to lead, but kind of betting on those more outlandish type of outcomes, would that be something you'd sprinkle on it, longer shot odds?

A (40:31)

Yeah. Yeah. It would depend on what the the odds were. But that is intriguing to me. You know, like Kenneth Walker has been so good and the fact that there's no Charbonnet, like he will get the lion's share of everything and is capable of breaking off stuff of his own. Like the Patriots run defense is so strong that like I'm not, you know, it's like you're going to predict a big Kenneth Walker game, but he has been genuinely awesome in January and we'll get a full workload and you know, like I expected more of a split between Ramandre and Trayvon in January and that's not really been the case. It's been the Ramandre show. So I like the fact that those guys are getting the bulks of the workload even against really tough run defenses. Like I do think one of them will probably lead the game in rushing. But Drake May, two of the three games of the playoffs he was over 60.

B (41:17)

Like he has shown pretty high ceiling. That's way above. So again if you don't like the feel like not I like the high just to kind of go for and go for the jugular with just like all right I'll just take him to leave the game in rushing yards at this point if you don't like just betting the median because again the numbers already pretty high right where it's like 37, 38 and a half yards like that's already pretty high numbers.

A (41:37)

So it's not available on Hard Rock Bet. So I'm not going to say where it is available because we like Hard Rock Bet but some of the numbers that I'm seeing plus 500 plus 550 plus 600 for Drake May to lead.

B (41:48)

The game and that's a fun bet to sweat.

A (41:51)

I like I like that at those odds that's a good especially if the.

B (41:53)

Running backs don't start off well. Especially in the first half where it's like oh this is live like that. And that's a bet that could be live especially deep into the third or fourth quarter because that's really half the time. That's half the fun right. It's like are all my best not just dead by the time the fourth quarter starts. So that's it. So that's a nice dovetails nicely into my prop bet here. That will be live until the clock strikes 0000 graveyard Henderson to go over half a reception. So you kind of hit on it a little bit earlier talking about how this really been the Stevenson show Travan Henderson basically didn't even play in the AFC championship game I believe played four snaps so it was all Ramandre. A lot of that to do with pass protection the bad weather and the fact that they were just kind of playing bully ball and they were just trying to protect the football and protect Rick May be very very conservative. They didn't need Henderson's explosive element in that game against the Broncos because they were just trying to get out of there with a win. Now I don't think they'll have that luxury against the Seattle Seahawks. I think they're going to have to find ways to generate big plays because you're not going to methodically move the ball down the field. Their offense has really struggled to consistently deliver scoring drives on a play by play basis in the playoffs against some of these really tough defenses. If you look at where they've had 10 plus play scoring drives they have two in the last three games total. Seattle has the number one defense on third downs. So yeah there's going to be a lot of punts for the Patriots in this matchup. But if, especially if they're not able to convert some of these third downs which they have not really been doing against some of these tougher defenses. So I think Henderson, he is an easy out for Drake may for them. Hey, let's get this guy ball in space. Look at the Seahawks, Seahawks league high 5.7 catches per game about running backs. Number one in the NFL. No team is allowed more running back catches than the Seattle Seahawks. Part of that's because they play a lot of zone coverage. It's part of the reason why they've been so good defensively against specifically wide receivers. But yeah, that's why I like Travon Henderson to be a little bit more involved here. Again, all he has to do is catch one pass, right and and we're going to hit the over here. So it's a very low bar for him to hit. I get why the line is where it is because he was basically not existent the last matchup really hasn't been involved that much in the playoffs overall. But I think against this specific defense they're going to need someone like Travion Henderson. And I do like one of the trends and this is something you can find in the betting pros proppet cheat sheet in terms of the filter you can if you move the Patriots to underdogs, you look at the six games where Travis Henderson and the Pats have been underdogs against the spread, he's 6 and oh towards the over in those games for his receptions. And part of that has to do with oh, negative game script. They have to throw the ball in the second half, more dump offs to running back. So it makes sense intuitively that in games where they're maybe trailing that they would get more passes involved to running backs. That's also why Seattle has given up the most passes running backs because they've been winning for the majority of their games this season. So I really like that and I think Henderson too, if you're looking for a fatter payout, I mean he's got bonkers long odds just to go over 15 receiving yards. That's almost close to 4 to 1. It's 11:1 for him to go for 30 receiving yards. He can do that in one play. So yeah, if you think Henderson does get more involved here, I think there's a lot of ways to take advantage of especially with the recency buys of him basically not playing at all in the AFC championship game. So I like him to have a bigger impact offensively.

A (45:20)

It's a great point by you. Not just on this call, which I like, but having a pick for the super bowl that is alive late. Like you either either hit it early.

B (45:30)

Last play of the game or it's.

A (45:33)

Similar to like, like you know any player to catch a 50 yard pass in this game, something like that. Like you have the whole game that's on the table. I like, I like stuff like that where you're, you're, you're either hit it early and feeling great or you're like, I got a shot here going, going late in the game. So I like and, and I think it's a good call in Henderson too. I want to let Dynasty managers know that we just launched the brand new Fantasy Dynasty YouTube channel. We will be bringing you rookie rankings, super flex strategy, startup draft and trade advice all year long. If you're building for the future, this channel is built for you. It will be a lot of myself, Pat Fitzmorris, Scott Bogman, we're asking DBRO on there, Seth Woolcock doing some trade draft show stuff. It's gonna be a lot of fun. It's the same kind of Dynasty show that Fantasy Pros has already been bringing you, but just at a new place. So check us out please on the Dynasty YouTube channel. You can just search Fantasy Pros Dynasty channel on YouTube and then hit subscribe. If you like what we do there, we'd really appreciate it. Let's go to our Hard Rock best bets. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Best. So it's time for Hard Rock Best bets of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet Erickson. What is your Hard Rock best bet of the week?

B (46:42)

I'm gonna go with the low hanging fruit. It is very, very, it's a very, very juicy fruit because I believe the Henderson over on his receptions prop is close to minus 200. But as our new colleague Seth Wilcock always says, you're not drinking the juice if you lose. You only drink the juice if you lose. So we're not gonna lose this bet here. Henderson is going to catch at least one pass. I think he's gonna catch more than one pass actually. So that would be my Hard Rock best bet of Super Bowl 60 because I'm too much of a coward to make the Patriots my best bet.

A (47:10)

Your team is in the Super Bowl. You are picking them to win.

B (47:15)

You'll just have to check out the betting pro show when I have have to take a non prop doing my best bet.

A (47:19)

I can't believe you are not taking for your best bet your team to win the Super Bowl. That is jaw dropping. I want to have fun picking a prop here but I really can't get away from. I just, I just like the under a lot and just given the coaches and the teams that we have and you know, the fact that the best coaches in this matchup are on the defensive side of the ball and they're getting two weeks to prepare. Like the defenses are both relatively healthy. You know, the offensive line is a lot better in Seattle than it was a year ago, but it's still not like the best offensive line in football. The Patriots offensive line has been a problem when facing really good defenses at times. Like I just can't get away from the under so that will be my Hard Rock best bet of the week is the under 45 and a half on the total. Those were our Hard Rock best bets of the week. If you haven't signed up with Hard Rock Bet yet, there's never been a better time. New signups can double their winnings on their first 10 bets max $50? That's right. If you would have won a hundred bucks on your bet, make that 200 instead. Big game week is also the best time to be a Hard Rock vip. Hard Rock Bet is rolling out the red carpet for its MVPs, private jet, five star hotel, big game tickets and more. Other VIPs can attend invite only watch parties with special guests, high end food and tons of exclusive merch. If you want to get in on the action, check out the status match page on hardrockbet.com Excuse me. Hard Rock Bet slash Loyalty Again, that's Hard Rock Bet slash Loyalty. Let them know where you play for a shot at an instant upgrade to the best signature VIP program in the industry. That's Hard Rock Bet. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today.

C (48:58)

Payable and bonus bets Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be 21 plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833, play wise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling Problem wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey.

A (49:25)

Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia Erickson, any parting thoughts before we say goodbye until the Super Bowl?

B (49:31)

So I did get a chance to download The Hard Rock bet at Florida. In Florida, because I was staying there.

A (49:38)

The only official sports book in Florida.

B (49:40)

Yes. I made my first wager on the app, which I thought was really fun, really slick. Took the Bruins on the money line. They were up 51 against Tampa Bay and somehow lost. And I was absolutely devastated. But that's not Hard Rock Mets problem. That's mine because I just. Yeah, so.

A (50:03)

But the one thing Hard Rock Back cannot control is bad beats.

B (50:07)

Exactly. But it was still a fun sweat. It was a fun ride. But, yeah, that is why I no longer bet on outdoor hockey. So there you go. Fair.

A (50:16)

All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there. I cannot say best of luck to your Patriots, Erickson. I simply refuse, like, pretty much the entire country. I'll be rooting for Seattle on Sunday, but I hope that you have a good time and I hope that the Patriots lose. But it's not in such a devastating, crushing fashion that it ruins your will to live. That's what I'm hoping for for you as my friend. So for Erickson, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks, everybody, for tuning in. We'll see you next time.

B (50:40)

Go, Pats.

A (50:41)

Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros. This is an I heart podcast. Guaranteed human.