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FantasyPros - Would You Rather: Which Fantasy Football Players Would You Take in 2025? (Ep. 1590)
01:07:36
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- [00:00]
Chris Welsh
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:07]
Andrew Erickson
You don't want vacation to end, but with Amex Platinum, you're already planning the next one because you earn five times membership rewards points on prepaid hotels and more booked through amextravel.com so every trip to the beach and the city and the country and back home again leads to another destination. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms apply. Learn more@american express.com withamx who would you rather?
- [00:37]
Chris Welsh
That is always the biggest fantasy football question. You're in the draft room. Which guy? Between this one and that one. We are going to answer that question today right here on the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I am Chris Welsh and I got two fantastic guests. What we're going to be doing is I've always called them player debates. Players of similar general range, maybe upside versus floor. There's so many different ways to discuss it. We're going running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, tight ends. We're even going to do some vets versus rookies. And we have got of course, my podcast cohort during the football season, Andrew Erickson here and someone I've never got to hang out with. But we became best friends behind the scenes and all of our similarities. It's Rich Rebar Lord Reeves. Rich, what's up, man? It was great to meet you backstage and I'm very excited to finally get to. I mean, I enjoyed talking about all of our geeky nerd comic book stuff, but it'll be good to talk about some other geeky nerd fantasy football stuff.
- [01:35]
Rich Rebar
The Venn diagram is very strong if you, if you dip into these waters and talk to people, you know, are you, do you like this one thing that's super nerdy? I bet you like these other things as well. So we're best friends now. You know, the last half hour of hanging out. So I can't wait to come hang out with you, get our, get our kids together and you know, watch, watch some X Men 97.
- [01:52]
Chris Welsh
Our Mutual named children as well. That's the other thing we figured out and, and we got to give a little shout out as a behind the scenes things to our, our poor, our poor dude, Jake Seeley, the all in kid who was going to be joining us here. And chaos arose. But Andrew Erickson heeded the call. He stepped up when it was needed and what a great person we can have for the player debates. Erickson, you're going to, you're going to bring it. I know it.
- [02:13]
Jake Seeley
I'm always ready to bring if I'm not again. I was talking behind the scenes with you guys. If you're not ready to hop on a show 5 minutes warning to talk about fantasy football in June, what are you doing? Like, you got to be ready to go. And I also brought the graphic tee. So even though there is no Jake Seely, there is another graphic tee being represented here.
- [02:28]
Chris Welsh
So lfg, baby, is that a presidential dab? Is that like Washington dab?
- [02:33]
Jake Seeley
The Patriots?
- [02:34]
Chris Welsh
A Patriots dab.
- [02:35]
Jake Seeley
Remember, remember once upon a time, Cam Newton was on the New England Patriots as the quarterback season that I cannot wait to tell my children about that. That actually happened.
- [02:44]
Chris Welsh
Very memorable season. Exactly. I'm not sure what those debates would have been back then, but we've got some good ones. So again, who would you rather big fantasy football player debates of 2025 with lots of positional stuff. We're going to be using ecr. So just want to remind everybody, fantasy pros ranks, it's fantastic because you can go in and check whether it's, you know, PPR, half PPR. These are going to be at least the ECRs I'm going to give you. This is based on half ppr, just a nice middle ground. But you can go through that. You can also check each individual analyst. You can make groupings or the ECR itself. The expert consensus ranks is everybody. It's a big old collection of all the ranks, averaging it out. That's what we're going to be using. That's what I'm going to be citing. You guys can find the ranks over@fantasyprose.com rankings today. You can peruse, you can have fun and you can create your own player debates and you can bring it out into the ether and let everybody vote on it and talk about it. But these are the ones we have today. So gentlemen, let's not waste any more time. Let's jump right into it. We're going to jump over to running backs and we're going to be on the high end here. And I think this is actually a really, really good one. And this one actually took place in our fantasy pros world where we're doing a draft. Some of the analysts are doing it with some listeners and Ryan Wormley had hit me up and said, hey, you're on the clock. I, with the 8th pick took Ashton Gente and he said, oh man, I almost took him, but I just decided Jameer Gibbs might have like a little bit more of that floor, but the Genti upside really gets me. Well, guess what, gentlemen, there is our debate. Jameer Gibbs ECR RB3 versus Ashton Genti who is RB5. But we have seen some hot takes on this channel and we've obviously seen that there is a, a lot, a lot of people that want to just jump in and think he has a potential to be the RB one for this year. So Rich, let's start with you. Who would you rather in the first round running back debate, Jameer Gibbs or Ashton Genty?
- [04:35]
Rich Rebar
I will say all the ones you put on the sheet. This was the one that kind of gave me the most pause. Like you know, when you see the, the names and the other ones that we'll go through. I kind of had a pretty definitive like yeah, this, this, this guy but this one. And I think it's just because they're two first round picks, right? Like you could see the upside angle for both. I, I do think that I would break semi tie with Jameer Gibbs just being on an offense I believe in more. And you can also even poke some holes in that with no, no Ben Johnson, some potential team regression, Frank Ragnow just retiring as well. But we have seen a fleeting sample of Jameer Gibbs without David Montgomery be the best player in all fantasy football. I mean he has had a high floor. He's 16.9 PPR points per game with David Montgomery playing and then 27.4 PPR points a game with David Montgomery off the field. He's finished RB8 and RB2 in points per. It's really easy to make the case for Jayanti though. Like you know the one of the best, cleanest running back prospects going to a Pete Carroll Chip Kelly offense. Right? Like I think the only things they're kind of really pulled down for him is that maybe the Raiders are a worse team. They definitely have a more questionable offensive line even with the rag now retirement factored in. And the Raiders on our end do have our 24th ranked run schedule. But these running backs that have been first round fantasy picks have largely been pretty safe picks. I mean Jameer Gibbs was the RB12 most recently Bijan Robinson that same year in 2023. Both those guys finished top 10 in overall scoring. Najee Harris was a top five pick. You know it was a top five finish and was an RB1 really. Only Clyde Edwards Allaire is like the only brick in like this range of like the past decade because you had Saquon, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott and the ghost of Trent Richardson. All those guys finished as top 10 running backs and were taken as RB1s. The rookie years as well. So this one was tight. I still kind of just give minor edges to Gibbs.
- [06:26]
Chris Welsh
So Erickson, do you think this one is as tight or do you think it's a bigger window? Because the Gibbs argument like is laid out right there. At the end of the day there's another running back there. It's a big powerful offense. We already know who Gibbs is versus Jinty who sky high potential and maybe he gets all the usage and pulls out. You know like the comparisons of Saquon rookie year valuations are kind of out there. What do you think? Obviously the ECR is a little bit different and it's. There's a running back in between both of these guys. But when push comes to shove, who would you rather, Genti or Gibbs?
- [06:58]
Jake Seeley
It's still Gibbs for me. He is my RB2. I have Genti as my RB3. So I do think that it is close and I think that when you're looking at it from a volume projection, yeah Genti should touch the ball more times than Gibbs and then that gives him a path where he can outscore Jameer Gibbs. But I go back to offense environment. Even if the Lions take a step back is it still are the Raiders going to now lap them essentially like the Raiders like offense we expect to be better but. But is it going to be good enough where then taking over the Lions who have basically been a top five offense the last two seasons. And I always think back to you know what's the cheat code with fantasy running backs? It's pass catching, it's receiving. We know Jameer Gibbs is an elite receiver out of the backfield. We're hoping that Genti can be that what he did his sophomore year. He was used a lot more in the passing game last year. Not as much. What is it going to look like in this Chip Kelly offense? Are they going to feed him a ton of targets? Geno Smith last year they threw the ball a lot. We saw Ken Walker catch more passes but the two years before that there really wasn't a lot of running back target. So I think that's still more of a projection what he's going to be used like in the passing game. I'm optimistic that he'll see a role but to the extent that it will be better than Gibbs, I'm not as bullish on and the fact that he turns into Dale and Tomlinson if Dave Montgomery misses any time like that's. That's upside like the single highest scoring player at the position where Genti. Yes the volume should be there, but he still needs to make the jump to the NFL steeper competition. And I think from a starting perspective, I expect Gibbs to, you know, hit the ground running. And two, if, if this Lions offense does regress and Jared Goff kind of goes back to, you know, sometimes what we saw him with the Rams, I feel like he's just going to look for Gibbs. He's going to like find his check down option. I think Gibbs could really eat as a receiver. So I do think it's close. I'm definitely open to both guys. That's why I have them both inside my top three. But I'm going to lean Gibbs as well.
- [08:45]
Chris Welsh
I'm going to do this just really quick. We don't have to get into crazy analysis. But now I'm just quickly add a third name and just rank these players. Those two and Saquon Barkley and Erickson.
- [08:56]
Jake Seeley
Let'S start with you Gibbs Gentee. Saquon Barkley.
- [08:59]
Chris Welsh
That's what I wanted to hear. That's all I was going for. Rich, what do you think? We had Saquon Barkley in there. How does that list look?
- [09:04]
Rich Rebar
Yeah, Saquon is a little tricky. Obviously you're going to see a lot of reports about the touch count that he had last year and the fall off that players with that many touches have. And it's not necessarily that Saquon had a lot of touches is he's a running back. The next touch is always the one that matters. Right. It's not necessarily the, the 482 he had the season prior. It's the next touch. I do think the Eagles are going to throw more. And the one thing about Saquon that happened last year that I don't think a lot of people realize is that he had his the worst receiving usage of his career, which we thought was going to be in the range of outcomes with Jalen Hurts get and then the tush push was still a factor for him. So if you're not housing 50 yard touchdown runs at the same rate you were last year, which he did at at a greater rate than anyone's ever done and literally since Jim. So like if you just have some regression in that, that long touchdown dependence and you're not catching passes and you're not scoring touchdowns, those eventually pull down your overall, you know, production from a fantasy stance or even if JT doesn't catch 70 passes, I think we have a pretty clean line where he's going to catch like 30 plus. Right. And like that's still A question with Saquon in these full PPR formats. I think the format matters as well too, if you're kind of trying to break some ties too with those guys. Because I think. Do you think the other guys are just going to catch more passes than Saquon?
- [10:15]
Chris Welsh
So was Barkley third on that list for you too?
- [10:19]
Rich Rebar
Yeah, I think so. Just the way we play it, right? Like we don't over the last time the RB one repeated was was Priest Holmes in 2002, 2003. Like it, just like it doesn't happen. Chasing last year's RB1 very rarely works out.
- [10:33]
Chris Welsh
All right, well, we'll chase a former RB1 and if I'm here, you know I'm going to have to bring up this guy. But I think this is a good debate. Erickson. Don't you give me that smirk. You tell me this is a good 1. Bucky Irving vs Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey comes in at RB7, polarizing with injuries. Kind of feels like you love the value and you love him or big no thanks versus Bucky Irving, who has been phenomenal. He is ECR RB10, so he is lower as McCaffrey is ECR RB7. But you know the hype on Bucky Irving, where you want to get him? I don't know where you. It kind of I guess depends on where you feel. On Rashad White as well. There's a little bit of a difference obviously in acr, but it does feel like you've got to be in one direction or the other with Christian McCaffrey. Not a lot of people sitting on the fence. So Rich, do you sit on the fence or is it Bucky or Christian? Who would you rather in 2025?
- [11:26]
Rich Rebar
No, I'm not on the fence with Christian McCaffrey. I still believe he's a play to win pick. I think a lot of people are treating him as just a play not to lose a void. But this, this is the player that we've seen is in an offensive environment where he's still. He's only going to be 29. Like he's not dead. Granted there's a risk versus reward factor because he has missed double digit games in three of his seasons. But any season he's ever finished, he's been the RB1 or the RB2 in points per game and he's in a system that still is. They're pushing the 49ers haven't given up on their window. Like they're still going to try to win games and they're going to maximize Christian McCaffrey, I believe. And you look at the games he played last year and the two games he played at Brock Purdy. 90 of the backfield touches, 20% of the target still went over 100 yards from scrimmage in both of those games. The 49ers are a team I believe are just collectively mispriced this year. Everything went wrong for them last year and I think it's getting over factored into all the price point for all of these guys. I mean including, you know, like not only was Brandon, Debo Samuel, Juan Jennings, Ricky Pal, George Kittle and Christian all missed multiple games. Trent Williams also missed seven games. It was, it was a collective issue. And even with all that happening, they were second in the NFL in plays with 25 plus yards. They were fourth and expected touchdowns. They have by far our easiest schedule, passing schedule and rushing schedule this year. They're projected to be the seventh highest scoring team in the NFL. I still think Christian McCaffrey still has at least one more ride in the sunset while he's, you know, active and playing. I get that that's a question mark, but I still want to play to win. If you're going to give him at the 12 turn now, I feel like that's just really too tempting to pass up.
- [12:59]
Chris Welsh
ECR is saying the same thing. It's agreeing with you, Erickson. Do you agree? Who would you rather, Bucky Irving or Christian McCaffrey in 2025? This is probably assuming I'm not going to like put the caveats of like where they're going because these are all pretty close. But you know, this is probably an early second round pick that you're, you're putting into one of these two players. Which one are you going with?
- [13:20]
Jake Seeley
I'm going with Chris McCaffrey. I don't have the biase or recency bias because I didn't draft him last year. So I don't feel bad about. Okay, well now I'll draft him this year because now he's discounted because the upside case for him is he scores more points when he's healthy than any other player on the field shooting for that maximum upside, I think is what we see when Christian McCaffrey is healthy. And I think Rich laid out a great point with the 49ers overall. You want to buy this offense, you want to buy all the discounted piece after they all got hurt last year. Their defense I think has major question marks. He laid out the schedule. I think they're Slated to just throw a ton of touchdowns, Both rushing, receiving. McCaffrey is going to play a big role in that. So for me, I think it's going to be McCaffrey. And then on the Bucky side again, we have another new offensive coordinator. Right. You know, what does a split work like with Rashad White? I have less question marks about McCaffrey's healthy, he's in my lineup. Like, that's all it takes. Like, that's the only question mark that I have to answer. So he's the pick for me.
- [14:15]
Rich Rebar
Yeah. The thing with Bucky, too is, and this might not happen to Bucky, but the year two running back that has been elevated to like the second round fringe wide receiver or fringe running back one has been like an archetype of player that has burned us like, pretty repeatedly in fantasy football. I don't want to see it. Bucky Irving was so good last year, but all these other guys were too. You go down the list, these guys that weren't drafted with high draft capital had a small sample of like really hyper efficiency. Andre Ellington, Miles Sanders, Jeremy Hill, Jeremy Langford, Thomas Rawls, James Robinson. Like, these guys were all pushed in that year two up, up, up into that bucket. And like, we. We got torched on those guys.
- [14:57]
Chris Welsh
All right, now I'm going to do this one more time. One little side one. Let me throw this. Especially when we have you guys both agree, because I have to be the deciding factor if we have disagreement, which God knows we'll have any disagreement here. But when we get the other guy and you guys both moved quick to Christian McCaffrey. Let me just throw this out to you. Is anything change, Eric? So let's start with you again. You don't have to get into big breakdowns. Just a quick one. Let's now go Bucky Irving vs. Chase Brown. Do we have a change?
- [15:24]
Jake Seeley
I will take Bucky Irving there.
- [15:26]
Chris Welsh
Okay. So I just know you're a Chase guy. I didn't know if that would push it. And we're agreeing, Rich.
- [15:30]
Rich Rebar
Yeah, I also. I mean, they're having literally back to back. So, you know, but it's. Yeah, Bucky Irving was just a little bit better of a player than. Than Chase Brown was last year. Chase Brown was all volume.
- [15:42]
Chris Welsh
That's true. All right, let's move into like an RB2 range here for our third of the running backs. And this is going to be a nice rookie versus vet situation. We actually have some later that are specific. This one would have probably followed into it, but these are both RB2s. In fact this is RB20 and RB21 on ECR. So right next to each other. We've mentioned one of these guys already, RB20, David Montgomery, touchdown equity offense, you love it. But we also mentioned Jameer Gibbs, who's that first round pick. We are going to pair him against Amerian Hampton with the Chargers. Chargers bring in Najee Harris. Maybe questions A lot of people tell you don't worry about any of the RBs that come in, these veteran RBs that come in to affect any of these rookies. These guys are next to each other. Should it be that way? Who would you rather Rich A. Marin Hampton or David Montgomery?
- [16:30]
Rich Rebar
This one is really rough because I would rather have James Connor than both these guys and he's drafted after them. But I mean it's kind of because it's kind of a case of two different things, right? Like you're looking at David Montgomery and you know you're getting like that, that touchdown based floor. We haven't seen him play a lot of games without Jameer Gibbs. There was a two game sample, you know Gibbs's rookie year and then Montgomery got banged up in the the second game of that. So we haven't really seen like him have like that Gibson like could be ladanian Thomas like you know Erickson said earlier, like that doesn't really exist in the range of outcomes for Montgomery. He gets a spike but he hasn't turned like this world beating entity a Marion Hampton has to deal with Naji Harris and I, and I, I get like Naji Harris like on paper you guys are like this dude's not that much of a threat. Naji Harris, I, I promise you as a dude that love like this is like the type of running back that coaches love because he doesn't do anything bad, he doesn't do anything great but he doesn't like lose you games either. And like coaches love that type of stuff. And I promise you that Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh are, are going to love a dude like that. It's why they went out and got him. So you know it's, it's a really tough kind of call here to, to, to say like is Hampton going to be a guy that's in a timeshare the whole way as a rookie or does the draft capital say like hey there's a Runway for him to just take over Najee Harris who's only on a one year contract and then you're getting this back half of the year RB1 that range of outcomes I think will lead me to swing on Hampton more. But these are two guys that I don't really draft very often because again, I have a running back below them that is. It wasn't part of the equation.
- [18:04]
Chris Welsh
Erickson, you got a chance. Is this going to be a clean sweep of agreement across the board? Are you going to push against a Marian Hampton vs David Montgomery? Who would you rather in in 2025, my friend?
- [18:14]
Jake Seeley
Well, I agree with. So I can take James Connor over both.
- [18:17]
Chris Welsh
You cannot take James.
- [18:19]
Jake Seeley
I also have it ranked the exact same way. Where Connor is is above both of these players. I think for me it's the rookie. When in doubt, take a shot on one of these rookie running backs. We know this class is absolutely stacked and maybe the planets don't align in week one or week two for a Marion Hampton, but who's to say it's going to be the perfect run out for Dave Montgomery? It's been the perfect run up for Dave Montgomery the last two seasons where he's just been a touchdown machine. If the Lions regressing on offense hurts anybody the most, I think it would probably Montgomery because if they go from a top three scoring team to then they're now 10th in terms of total points scored. Well, who's that going to hurt? Probably the guy that's the most touchdown dependent of the main playmakers, which is a Dave Montgomery. We know that Gibbs is really the primary pass catcher. We know that Gibbs is the one that's used and can make play. He can create his own red zone opportunities essentially because of how explosive he is. Dave Montgomery doesn't necessarily offer that. So if the Lions are playing from behind, is Montgomery in the game? We don't know. So I think for me I'd rather take the swing on Omarion, Hampton and Welsh. I'm always thinking about projecting ahead into the season when you have these guys on your roster. No, in redraft you're thinking about trades. Who's going to have more trade value? Just every single Hampton. Every single week people are going to be trying to get Hampton from you because if he starts out so. Whereas Dave Montgomery, I don't necessarily see where he's going to gain value as the season progresses. Hampton could do nothing for the first month and his value could still hold because we know in the end rookies usually win out. So I think for all looking at it from all different facets, it seems that Hampton is just the better pick. And really it's. Unless you really need frontline production, I guess Montgomery would be the pick. But at the same time that's why James Connor is a great pick here because he's the guy that can deliver a ton of front line production, you know, before he suffers an injury.
- [20:01]
Chris Welsh
Though I would say like similar to what you said before with Gibbs. If Gibbs were to miss time, Montgomery is a monster. Like because he is the guy. So in the same vein of giving the little extra credit to Gibbs, like Montgomery would deserve that. But if you're keeping stats here that of the running backs, that's two of the three favorites in ECR that were in agreement. This is the first one where you guys are taking the ECR lower players. So we've got a Marion Hampton over Montgomery. That is the first lower ECR guy over the other two. Are there you guys listening and watching? Comment below and you can tell us who would you rather when you do so it might even get you some free stuff on those RBs. Giving away a wide receiver giveaway because this month you got a chance to win a signed George Pickens Steelers jersey. It's going out of business sale with the Cowboys now, but you can get that Steelers George Pickens jersey for free courtesy of our friends over@pristineauction.com all you've got to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pro's YouTube channel right now. Super easy. Drop a comment below on any video and that's it. And I just gave you guys the suggestion. You guys go and put in who you like in those RB debates and bam, you guys are in. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So make sure to turn on notifications so you can check out the new videos and you can potentially claim your prize of the George Pickens autograph jersey. Gentlemen, let's move to the wide receivers. We've got kind of similar. It's like a very top end wide receiver debate. We've got that wide receiver round two ish debate and then we're going a little bit deeper. So let's start at the top end. I think we've even had this conversation before. Wide receiver 8 versus wide receiver 7 Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr. I think I even saw a report today. Brian Thomas landed wrong at a practice or whatever. We're in that range. We're like, oh yeah, any of these like practices, one little thing could happen. There was a quarterback. We might have discussed that. We didn't because we got new news. But this one is Brian Thomas, Nico Collins. They are next to each other in ecr. So Rich, take it away. Which wide receiver Would you rather have.
- [22:03]
Rich Rebar
It's still the chalk the player ahead here, Nico Collins. I mean Nico Collins was going to contend to be the wide receiver one last year for a stretch of the season. Then he picked up that hamstring injury literally on what a 65 yard touchdown that he caught, like popped it, popped the wheel. And then after week 11, you know, just wasn't the same player when he came back from injury. However, he still was third among all receivers and yards per out run. If you take the top 10 yards per run seasons of the past two years, there's only two players that appear on the list from both seasons and it's Pukinukua and Nico Collins. In the games he played, he had 40% of the team targets in the red zone, 58% of the end zone targets. The money, the money looks both those are top five rates. I still just have a little more confidence in his offensive infrastructure. And remember like the Texans hired a guy from the McVeigh Tree, Nick and Nick Kaylee to be the offensive coordinator. Like what if Nico Collins starts to get some of that free square stuff that we've seen wide receiver ones in that offensive system get two as well. I still, I have no problem with Brian Thomas Jr. And I would love to have Brian John Thomas JR. A bunch of fantasy teams this year. But if you're making me choose, I'm choosing Nico Collins.
- [23:12]
Chris Welsh
When I may have also said it weird by the way, because Nico is a spot below Brian Thomas.
- [23:17]
Rich Rebar
I assumed he was the chalk the ahead of him.
- [23:20]
Chris Welsh
No. Yeah. Brian Thomas is number seven on ecr. Nico Collins is number eight. Andrew Erickson, could this be the first disagreement between both of you very smart gentlemen?
- [23:30]
Jake Seeley
No. No it won't be. And that definitely sounds weird for me because I was really The Brian Thomas Jr. Guy last. I mean I have the lead all rookies and receiving guards the 18 to 1 bet. We hit that last year with Brian Thomas Jr. So it feels weird to be going against him here. But Nico Collins is just so clearly the alpha wide receiver in this Texans offense and when he's been healthy the last two years, he's top five in the NFL. And receiving yards per game. Receiving yards per game. Again, we have so many of these Vance metrics when it's time to projecting fantasy points at the simplest numbers, it's just how many yards does this guy get? Like that's the best projector of future fantasy production. And Nico Collins checks off all the boxes. So you look at his target competition compared to last year. Last year it was an ascending Tank Dell and an established Savon Diggs. Now it's Christian Kirk on his third team and he can never stay healthy in the second half of seasons. And two rookie wide receivers that they drafted. He's just so slated. If this Texans offense just gets back to where they were with CJ Stroud as a rookie. Nico Collins has been going up back to 1500 receiving yards, 15 plus receiving touchdowns. And as much as I love Brian Thomas Jr. There's just more question marks about what his role will look like. Not to say that he's not going to be heavily involved, but it's still a new offense. He didn't break out last year with Trevor Lawrence. It was a different quarterback last year. And now you add a really talented player in Travis Hunter into the equation who really wasn't a factor. There really wasn't another number two with Brian Thomas Jr last year and we've seen with Brian Thomas Jr where he really opens things up for other receivers to potentially eat. Just like at lsu, Malik Neighbors was the guy that was getting all the receptions, whereas he was ripping off all the big plays. So it's enough. I can see enough where I give the slight edge to Nico, but I have them ranked back to back and again I would love both of them on my team.
- [25:19]
Chris Welsh
But yeah, and I'm looking here too. If you go on to Fantasy Pros on the ranks fantasypros.com rankings, you can also click into the player and you can also see like the best and the worst individual ranks and you can see all the rankers. So when you're looking at both of these guys, Brian Thomas does not have a rank above three. So there are, there's only actually two people that have Brian Thomas as wide receiver number three this season. And then it keeps going down. By the way, one of them, Derrick Brown, Dee Bro or boy not here he has him as the wide receiver. 3. Nico Collins has two people ranking him as the number two overall wide receiver and then a handful that have him at three, including Andrew Erickson who has him at three. So just an interesting thing that you've got a higher high end sentiment on Nico Collins over Brian Thomas right now in the ranks. Yet Brian Thomas is ranked higher, which is, you know, so it ends up like leveling itself out and Brian Thomas ends up being the top guy here. But you guys are both going with one below. So Nico Collins wins that. Who would you rather next up? I personally really like this one. At this rate, you guys might just continuously agree and maybe it Won't be as good but I thought this was a fun one. Drake London who is wide receiver 10 on half point ECR here versus lad McConkey and I understand maybe full point might change this a little bit but Lad was a monster. He is wide receiver 12. These are both wide receiver ones in the top 12 range. So Rich Drake London, lad McConkey, who do you want?
- [26:50]
Rich Rebar
This was the first one. I actually don't have particularly close in like my own individual stuff. I mean I am a volume forward player. I mean Drake London had 45 more targets than Lad McConkey last year and I think some people are taking away some of the, the back half signal from the Chargers in the wrong direction. Because you know the Chargers the front half of the year, they weren't very pass heavy. They were giving us that Harbaugh Roman offense but their running backs were terrible. They're, they couldn't run the ball at all and they started to throw more and there's a clear, clear line where Lad McConkey and Justin Herbert started to take off for fantasy. And I would love for that to be something that we can count on just being static. But when you look at every move that the Chargers made in, in conjunction with the way their season ended, remember the Chargers season ended with their quarterback throwing four interceptions and their running backs averaging under three yards per carry. That's not the way Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman want to play football. And this season what do they do when off season opens? They sign Makai Becton, a run grading guard. They get Naji Harrison and they use a first round pick in Omarion Hampton. Like they still scream to me like they haven't shedded their skin. Like this is still a team that has potential volume issues from a passing stance. Whereas the Atlanta Falcons, I know they're going to be pressed and they're going to be pressed to throw the football. And you look at especially like the Falcon schedule, like they open with teams like they have to score points. They open against the Bucks, the Vikings, the Panthers, who usually say the Panthers but they just last time we saw these teams play they played a 60 point bonanza. The Commanders, the Bills, the 49ers, the Dolphins, the Patriots who could be sneaky upside they get the Bucks, the Cardinals and the Rams and the fantasy playoffs like the Falcons are going to have to score points. They're defense might not be good and, and Drake London I think as like Loki and I, I know I'm saying this in the Fantasy Pros podcast and Deep Roast not here. Like I think he's drawing live to be the PPR wide receiver one this season. Drake London is, I mean we saw him get the Zach Robinson bump in terms of slot usage that got him free squares. And then when Michael Penck took over he started to to blend those short targets with targets that come with upside. His eight out went up. Michael Penck pushed the ball outside the numbers and down the field. He was, he was an absolute. Michael Penix took over. It was only a three game sample, but then top down, no matter who the quarterback was, Drake London had 60% of the team's end zone targets. Like this guy like Zach Robinson knew the assignment to get Drake London the football. Just I, I don't think this one is particularly close. I love lad McConkey the player. I think he's gonna have a tremendous career in Dynasty. I love land McConkey. I think Drake London tortures him in fantasy football this year.
- [29:23]
Chris Welsh
So this one, this one is actually going to be fun in a completely different way here. So first off, I already know Ericsson's answer. The reason I know Ericsson's answer is because he is the highest individual ranker on all of fantasy pros on one of these wide receivers. So I already know what it is. I'm going to give you another little. I'm tipping my hand here also. Weird thing, lad McConkey has actually moved up since I put this together yesterday. He is now wide receiver 11. I just noticed. So these guys are same tier on ecr. They are next to each other. Rich says this ain't close. Erickson, you're going to agree.
- [30:00]
Jake Seeley
I don't think it's close either. I think it's clearly Drake London and I'm glad that Rich called him a unit because that's exactly what he is. And I'm co signing the live for wide receiver 1 overall finish and I, I don't really know if I have anything else to add because you hit on all the points that I was going to bring to the table. The only thing I would add again going into the high value opportunities that Drake London has seen through three years, he leads the NFL at wide receiver in terms of red zone target rate. Whenever he's in the red zone he's been peppered with targets. And the last six wide receiver one overall finishers all led the NFL and red zone targets per game. And last year he was I believe inside the top five in terms of total red zone targets and that's been with multiple quarterbacks. So I, I love Drake London this year. I think that he is just an auto pick in the second round and I wouldn't even pick someone from taking him at the end of round one.
- [30:48]
Rich Rebar
Michael Penniks threw nine passes into the end zone last year and six of them were to Drake London.
- [30:54]
Chris Welsh
I mean if he gets plenty of those opportunities, London's going to thrive. Ifs and buts were candy and nuts though, we'd all have a Merry Christmas and that's always a Falcons conversation we could have. But I would love to know in the comments do you guys agree that this one is so wildly off base that it is so in favor of Drake London? Because you know this also might be.
- [31:13]
Rich Rebar
Telling us draft or say no.
- [31:15]
Chris Welsh
Rankers are saying no. This is very close. Not only same tier but they are next to each other. But the other thing that would be really interesting about this does anybody think there's a chance that Ladd could be higher than Drake London and is this a maybe future forecast if you guys come back on Fantasy Pros in a month or two in heavy draft season, is Drake London going to be a lot higher? You know, is this only a few people that are locking in as ranks continue to come in and people do more research? Could we see Drake Lond pushing guys like A.J. brown who's a tier higher, Nico Collins and Brian Thomas who we just talked about? Interesting conversation, but do you guys agree that it is this far apart? All right, last one on the wide receivers we're moving down a little bit. We are floating somewhere between the wide receiver 2, wide receiver 3, range and this one's kind of a mixed bag. These I think this actually might be the biggest rank differentials between any guys we're going to talk about and that might create you guys both being like, oh, it's clearly the high guy. But part of this is about Xavier Worthy who is wide receiver 27 on ECR, who I think Erickson we've done shows where we've talked about like hey Rasheed Rice is fun but at the end of the day like Xavier Worthy is still he's going to be the guy. He proved himself to be the guy. Except we jokingly talk about Xavier Worthy and we say, well he was in the Rasheed Rice role. Well, Rasheed Rice is back and potentially could take his role back, but he is lower than DJ Moore who comes in at ECR20. So this is a big difference. But we put this together as well because you've got burden who's coming in, you've got everybody assuming A dunesday is going to take over. And if we have Caleb Williams being a whole lot better, what really like how big of a big boost and positive is that for DJ Moore? So all of that little conjecture in the front here, Rich, is this another big gap between these two guys? What do you say? DJ Moore is ECR20, Xavier Worthy is 27. Does it deserve to be that big of a gap? And are you going to pick DJ Moore?
- [33:11]
Rich Rebar
These are two guys that I just haven't been drafting. This makes this kind of fun because it made me kind of just like, you know, analyze the two. I still believe if you're just betting, I, I believe DJ Moore is significantly better wide receiver than Xavier Worthy though. So if like that would be where I would start like the conversation with is that we've seen DJ Moore win on all three levels, whereas we've not seen that from Xavier Worthy at all. We saw Xavier Worthy make that push towards the end of last season, but a lot of that was like a lot of stuff created, you know, manufactured near the line of scrimmage. He wasn't running winning with nuance. I mean if you guys follow Matt Harmon's work at reception perception, Xavier Worthy is a player that just, he just didn't grade out very well, especially against man coverage and press man. We just really haven't seen him be like a great, great wide receiver yet. And it could happen. You know, he's a young player, he's going to be a year two player building off a strong second half. But now we have to go into the season with kind of the question mark like where are all these Chiefs wide receivers fit together now? Because Rasheed Rice is also a player that doesn't win with a lot of nuance. A lot of things are have been his sample one near the line of scrimmage. Right? You get Hollywood Brown because remember last year we didn't get to see any the way the Chiefs wanted to operate their passing game at all. I mean Hollywood Brown got injured in the preseason, misses 14 games or she Rice opens the season, he's hurt in week four and they have to default run the offense back through a 35 year old Travis Kelsey, which clearly wasn't the plan. If you watch the opening month of the season and the Chiefs kind of offense just was never good like from a passing stance and it injured my home too. I think that that's what makes Mahomes interesting too is kind of having this all back and reset at the blocks of like hey, we're gonna have the three receivers back and then hopefully Kelsey's a complimentary piece versus, you know, traffic to run this offense. You're now 36 year old Travis Kelsey, who's coming off of like the worst efficiency of his career. So that makes it interesting. But DJ Moore I think is just a bet on the better football player. If you're making me pick getting involved with Ben Johnson, getting r of getting him removed from the Shane Waldron Thomas Brown offense. That was a year ago, which was. He was just a nightmare if you saw any interviews with him. He talked about his usage was absolutely awful. Getting the ball just at the line of scrimmage, which he hated. Not getting used creatively. If you watch his body language during the season last year he looked completely checked out and it's because the offense was a travesty. You still have to hope that Caleb Williams can overcome some course correct some of the mistakes that he had as a rookie. Things that quarterbacks typically, whether the coordinator is good or not, don't really correct this. This offense just was so bad last year. It's hard to take a lot away from what the Bears did and say like hey any all this, any of it could be static. It's just guess game. I'd rather have like guys like devonte Smith and probably Cortland Sutton even in this range. But if you're making me pick, I would choose the guy who I believe is just the better football player.
- [35:58]
Chris Welsh
Obviously same question, who would you rather? But I'm gonna throw in a little caveat I'd love to get if it sways your answer at all. You can still give your normal answer, but then like does this play into it? But does an extra round of value matter to you here? Because we're probably looking at DJ Moore based on the overall ranks here. You're looking at him as roughly a fourth round player, but you're looking at Xavier Worthy somewhere between five and six. So straight line answer Worthy versus DJ Moore. This is the difference between wide receiver two and three. But also round would be the secondary thing. I'd be curious if it, if it matters at all from a talent perspective. If they're close, I don't think it.
- [36:33]
Jake Seeley
Would move the needle for me that much. Just getting worthy, you know, around later than DJ Moore. It's still that middle round range where I think that you're still trying to make bets on potential breakout wide receivers. And to Rich's point, I haven't really been drafting DJ Moore a lot either for some of the reasons he laid out just the Vibes in general with him and Ben Johnson just it doesn't seem like, oh yeah, this is going to work out great. This is going to be a fantastic pairing. I would rather wait and draft Odoo again. The value game. If I'm going to bet on the spares offense, just give me O'Dunze, second year guy, breakout candidate. And that's kind of how I see Worthy. Where yes, a lot of receivers break out as rookies, but then a lot of them break out in year two. And the way that they have talked about Xavier Worthy, it's exactly like they talked about Rashi Rice when they talked about hey, his rookie year, the first half of the season was okay, kind of up and down. Then he really hit his stride in the second half of that rookie year. That's exactly what Xavier Worthy did last year at the second half of his rookie season. Like it was getting bad to start the, to start the season it was like this guy's gonna be a bust. Like what's gonna happen with Xavier Worthy? But then he turned it on. I get that the super bowl numbers are very not realistic, but I think that the Chiefs, they keep talking about we want to get bring back the deep ball. I, I don't know, I, I just think that Xavier Worthy, again, a prospect I really liked, he showed out in the second half of the season. And when I look at some of the second year receivers under Andy Reid that fit this speed type of player that Xavier Worthy can be that I think that he maybe hasn't unlocked yet. Desean Jackson, Tyree Kill, just for some examples, those guys both blew up in year two with Andy Reid as the head coach. So if Rashi Rice is limited or just not back to his 100 coming off of this season ending injury, maybe he takes a little bit longer to get going. I think that this team could really use, I think we could see Worthy and Rice both hit if Travis Kelsey is the one that ends up taking a big step back. So I'm definitely more open to Worthy than DJ Moore.
- [38:28]
Chris Welsh
Oh, so you're, oh, you're going Worthy. You pulled a rug.
- [38:31]
Rich Rebar
There we go.
- [38:33]
Chris Welsh
We got some dissent here. Okay, so you went worry. That's where you were leaning. But the very first response I was thought you were like, oh no, poo poo this. It's DJ more. Da da da. Love the breakdown, Love that. So I have to be the one to break the tie here then I think I'm gonna go with Worthy and I think I might throw in a little bit and this is cheating a tiny bit but that value that you're going to get, you're getting him around to and a half, maybe even two behind DJ Moore worried what Burton takes, Loveland takes what ends up being of that offense completely and how DJ Moore really thrives in it. Where I think Worthy is a really explosive player, I think they really at the end of the day they might not be this big of a difference on ecr. So if I'm the tiebreaker here, I'm actually going to go on the lower side with Xavier Worthy which great to see Ericsson. I love that you picked that. So if you're doing some stats here again in the wide receiver range, we actually had two non favorites win so we went two and one on the lower ranked player going up. We now have three total in the who would you rathers that are going lower on the ECR that you guys have both picked or you know have at least won. At the end of the day we're going to go and talk about some quarterbacks and tight ends. But first, the NBA Finals are here and this is your last shot to win some real cash before the season ends. The simplest way to get in on the action downloading the pick six app from DraftKings. It's crazy simple. You just pick more or less on the stats of two or more of your favorite players and boom, you're in the mix for big cash prizes. No gimmicks, no weird rules, just ball man. Pick six brings upside with payouts up to 500 times. If you're ready to make your Finals run, you got to get with Pick six now. And they're live in a ton of states like Texas, California, Georgia, Missouri and a lot more. And get this all new pick six customers instantly will get $50 in bonus picks on just a $5 entry. So don't miss your last shot to win some cash this NBA season by downloading the DraftKings Pick Six app right now and use code FantasyPros. That's code Fantasy Pros. New customers play $5 get $50 in bonus picks instantly. Ride the upside only on DraftKings Pick Six. The crown is yours.
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- [43:18]
Chris Welsh
Gentlemen, let's go to some quarterbacks. We are going to play a quarterback one game and then we're going to play kind of like a super flex. So the secondary one is going to be more of a Super Flex option. Deeper quarterbacks versus if you're in that super Flex range Who would you rather? But let's start with not super high end. We're not touching the top five quarterbacks. I played around with a couple different scenarios by the way as I was like staring at it. A couple different guys I kind of wanted to touch on if I'm being specific. There was like A Jalen Hurts vs. Joe Burrow 1 that was kind of floating out but you got a lot more higher ranks and they're. And they have a differential of a tier here. But we're going to jump to tier three in the QBs and these guys are next to each other. This is QB8 and QB9. Bo Nix at QB8 versus Kyler Murray QB9. A lot of running upside here. So probably at the end of the day the factor between the two might be what you think you can get out of the passing game because they're both going to run. But Rich, you get to make that decision. Who would you rather at quarterback this year? You're kind of late round quarterbacking at Bo Nix or Kyler Murray.
- [44:18]
Rich Rebar
I think, I think neither. I think when you look at your guys's adp even at fantasy pros the both these guys at cost are definitely not worth the squeeze especially compared to the running backs and wide receivers. I mean I, I have my QB8 in the, in the 90s that's like where they should be going.
- [44:36]
Chris Welsh
Well and you look at the quarterbacks lower. I like, I like agree by the way because those like QB 11, 12. It's ridiculously good value.
- [44:43]
Rich Rebar
In particular I don't think there's a huge gap this year between like QB8 and like QB17 either. This is like a very flat year at QB for non elites as well. I've, I, I think I look to the downside of both these QBs of paying the iron price or both of them. Well one Kyler Murray is like never made that jump right of like from like just this. This guy didn't give you a floor with some rushing to be like this full on what we now call the Konami guys like the dual threat guys because he's just, he just hasn't been a good passer over his career. And I do think some of the infusion of like the increased too high stuff and making quarterbacks throw over the middle of the field has hurt a guy like Kyler who he's not the biggest dude man. Like it's. There's a reason he doesn't throw over the middle of the field and why Marv didn't have all of Those like in breaking stuff because again, like to quote Matt Harmon again, the reception, reception like Marvel's winning on those, in breaking routes. Routes. He just wasn't getting targeted on those routes because Kyler either wasn't seeing him or wasn't making the correct reads on those routes. I mean he literally hasn't had a 4% touchdown rate in what the past four years like this. So you need like that marriage of the passing upside. I think he's had a solid floor, but there's just. He hasn't been able to make that jump. So I don't want to pay the iron price for him. And then Bo Nix is. His ADP is completely baffling to me. Like this, this guy looks like Denver tua like what we elevated to. Everything was manufactured for him as a rookie and that's fine when you get him at QB20 like where he was going last year and you can, you can smash but like now you're, you're paying for him as a top 10 quarterback. He, he had two games before week 18 where he even finished higher than QB8 and they were completely identifiable spots. He had eight games before week 18 where he faced a past defense in the front half of the league. And his average scoring week those weeks was QB18 with a high scoring week of QB10. Now Denver, because they were good and made the jump last year, they have our 26th ranked passing schedule. They have a, they have a ludicrously more hard passing schedule. We didn't see him punch up as a rookie as good as it was. Sean Payton basically said like, you know, I'm gonna make you a proxy of what Mike McDaniel did with Tua and Drew Brees because the pressure stuff with Bo Nix is completely manufact. He was, he was awful under pressure as a rookie and what Sean Payton did was like, hey, you know how you won't be under pressure? We'll just have you throw the ball at the line of scrimmage. 29 of his throws were at or behind the line of scrimmage. Only Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tango Viola had higher rates. He had seven passing touchdowns on throws that didn't even go past the line of scrimmage. Last year, number one in the NFL. When he held the ball longer than two and a half seconds, he completely dipped. He went to 21st and quarterback rating. He threw 11 interceptions to 14 touchdowns with the 20th league and touchdown rate. I get like, you can say like there's some floor here, but I don't want to take a quarterback as a floor play in this range. Like I'd rather just wait and take like a, a Drake May and say like, hey, he could be what Bonix was last year as a floor plan and maybe offer more upside. Maybe a JJ McCarthy or a guy like that. I, I can't get on board with Bonix's adp. I just can't.
- [47:47]
Chris Welsh
Okay, so Kyler Murray is the answer for you. You're locking in Kyler Murray.
- [47:52]
Rich Rebar
You should be taking.
- [47:53]
Chris Welsh
Well, no, I get, I get neither.
- [47:54]
Rich Rebar
There's someone else in this range.
- [47:56]
Jake Seeley
Well, he's making the point that he. This is where the value really does matter. Significantly.
- [48:01]
Chris Welsh
Yes.
- [48:01]
Jake Seeley
And that taking the middle range of quarterbacks.
- [48:04]
Rich Rebar
Yes.
- [48:04]
Jake Seeley
They're more likely to finish near the guys behind them than the guys in front of them.
- [48:08]
Chris Welsh
Correct. Completely agree. But that's why we have the debate. That's the. But I'm going to blow your mind here. Four rankers have him as a top.
- [48:16]
Rich Rebar
Six quarterback with bananas. That's absolutely bananas.
- [48:20]
Chris Welsh
One of them is an analyst you've mentioned a couple times here. The reception is very high for this ranker, for this quarterback. So we'll now go to you, Mr. Andrew.
- [48:31]
Rich Rebar
We saw him play in the playoffs. The offense died.
- [48:33]
Chris Welsh
I'm not taking Bo Nix as a top 10 quarterback. Yell at me. These are your peers that are doing this, by the way. The ECR is based on these rankers. I agree. Kyler Murray and Bo Nix. That makes my stomach turn. Erickson, what's going on with your stomach with these two guys? Can you, can you. I mean, you got to pick one. That's why we're doing this. I think everything else feels really good. I think we all relatively agree. It's like you want to go elite. Here's your little grouping of elite. You don't go elite. Live in the later territory because it's like where's, what's the line truly between like Brock purdy at like QB 12 or 13 or whatever and Bo Nix? You want value at the end of the day. So also don't get stuck on like the overall value. But. But it is still very alarming when you see like Murray and Nick's up there. So you got to pick one. Clearly. And which one are you going to do?
- [49:18]
Jake Seeley
If I have to pick one, I would pick Kyler again. I think that would be a higher one. I've seen Kyle again. We've seen Kyler do it and not going to. He hasn't really completely taken that next step. But I would say that he kind of feels like he's on the hot seat a little bit where he needs to prove to this coaching staff that hey, like I am like the franchise quarterback, I know they already paid him but. But it's still we're wanting more with him and even came out and said this, obviously I'm gonna run more. So whether he does it or not remains to be seen. He has. His production always falls off when Call of Duty comes out. So that's always something you have to keep in mind. Because the thing, it's interesting when I looked back at both of these quarterbacks, they had kind of similar seasons when it comes to their rushing. I think that they're both viewed as rushing quarterbacks. But when you go to putting these guys in your lineup week in and week out, it was really hard to project the games in which they would actually decide to run. And a lot of times it was based on game flow. If the Broncos were playing a more difficult team like Rebar said, Bo Nix would run more but his passing numbers would dip. But then when they were playing a bad team, they would just beat up on that team and Bonix would have better passing numbers. So I think that to Rich's point, both of these guys are being propped up probably incorrectly. I would say that I did a little bit more optimistic about Kyler Marvin taking a step in year two. He has Trey McBride. I think that just in this office I think I could see more from Kyler. I think he could put more on his shoulders where I don't think Sean Payton necessarily wants to do it. Making that comparison to TUA where we're not trying to overload our second year quarterback to have him do everything like let's make it easy for him and when we're beating up on a bad team, you know we can run the ball effectively. We have a really good defense, like let's do that. Whereas Arizona, they play in a dome. They're playing the NFC west where you could see a lot of games where it's high paced shootouts. I just see the environment and season long upside a little bit more. I can see that picture with Kyler Murray versus a Bo Nix who again a lot of his biggest numbers and stats came against really bad teams. He really beat up on these bad teams. Week 18 against Chiefs backups that the infamous Carolina Panthers game where we, I remember we were talking about on the weekly rankings we're like Bo Nicks top six quarterback. Are we really doing it this week.
- [51:25]
Rich Rebar
He won us DFS money.
- [51:27]
Jake Seeley
Those it was a lot of the matchups that were driven. But I know I have a couple things like to point out with Nicks again when it comes to the inconsistencies when he would run and when he wouldn't run. He had a 31 bus rate last year when it came to how often he would finish inside the top 12 versus outside the top 24, 31. That was the highest among any quarterback that finished top 10 overall in terms of total points scored when it comes to his passer rating from a clean pocket, it was 24 4th when it came to intermediate passing. So passing at the intermediate level from 10 to 19 yards downfield ranked 40th out of 43 qualifying quarterbacks per PFF. So there's just enough holes I think and expecting him to just take this massive leap going into year two. And this is something I've kind of talked about with actually I met with Justin, one of our developers in Boston this a couple days ago. He's a Bears fan and obviously he's always very making the comparisons to Jaden Daniels and Bo Nix to guys like Drake May and Caleb Williams. I think we have to remember that Caleb Williams and Drake May are significantly younger than Bo Nix and Jaden Daniels. They didn't play nearly as many games at the college level as those guys. So I don't think that we can just project. Okay Bo, Nick's going to take this monster sophomore leap when his rookie situation was really, really good and maybe I know at least I undervalued his rookie evaluation where he was with Sean Payton, how good a fit that was. But I'm not trying to overvalue and double count that that into year two or he's going to take this another massive leap where I expect guys like Caleb and Drake May to take these massive leaps. And would anybody, anybody be surprised if Caleb Williams and Drake may outscore Bo Nix now that they're both in much better situations whereas he's in the same situation it was last year. Again, it was good, but maybe we could see more growth from guys like Drake May and Caleb Williams. So my long winded answer of saying I'm gonna go with Kyler Murray, you.
- [53:13]
Chris Welsh
Know, I'm even more happy we talked about this. Probably the only time we're going to talk about these two guys this entire season because they are that range that we don't. So you guys did a great job there. But again, a quarterback that is lower in ECR that you buy you guys both pick, right? One more quarterback. We're living in The Super Flex range now. So just the only reason I'm saying this is, you know, put your Super Flex hat on. This is like a QB2 when you're picking between these guys young quarterbacks. Michael Penix who is the lower of the ranked players. QB 24 on ECR versus JJ McCarthy at QB 22. This should be some fun. Maybe not exactly the Super Flex type of quarterback you would want, but they technically are ranked in the top 24. Maybe you do rich. Michael Pennocks or J.J. mcCarthy. Who would you rather?
- [53:57]
Rich Rebar
I know I was against DBRO on Bo Nicks, but I think I'm going to be on lockstep with him with, with J.J. mcCarthy here. I.
- [54:05]
Jake Seeley
It's.
- [54:05]
Rich Rebar
It's really just, you know, splitting kind of the area where these guys go is just having a lot more faith in, you know, Kevin o' Connell and the, the top down offensive environment. Not that I think, think that the Falcons are necessarily going to be like a bad offense but you know, we saw Michael Penix even in that run. QB 30, QB 25, QB 7 and his three, his three starts as a rookie, like he could get pushed. I think Michael Penix has some fun Jameis Winston to him as well. Like there could be like where you just get so much volume it might not matter. But I think J.J. mcCarthy, the infrastructure of the Minnesota Vikings could really lead to him having like a Brock Purdyish type. Like, like the gap between him and Brock Purdy is. It could look a lot wider than what it is. I think that they're both going to probably have similar passing game and then McCarthy could have like he could be like a hyper efficient passer. Because everything the Vikings have done this off season has signaled that they want to run the football more. Not only to insulate JJ McCarthy but get a lot of those, you know, high efficiency, you know, play action targets with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and you know, TJ Hawkinson, you know, off of that play action game, I mean you look at what they've done this off season, I mean the first thing they do is extend Aaron Jones. They sign Will Fry and Ryan Kelly. They trade for Jordan Mason. They draft Donovan Jackson in the first round yesterday they just extended Josh Oliver the best run blocking tight end in the NFL. So if J.J. mcCarthy just has a reduction of the negative plays that Sam Darnold had because Darnold was for as much as jump he made, he was a very boomer bust quarterback. I mean he was third in the NFL in plays that generated an E1 whole EPA or more per play or but he's also 25th in plays that were negative minus one EPA or worse. He had. He was 28th in sac rate. He was 19th in interception rate. He was was 32nd turnover worthy throw rate. If JG McCarthy just cleans that up as an improvement like the upside for this offense actually is is even higher considering which seems wild to think because they were such an overachieving team last year. The Minnesota Vikings have a top down really good football team. It's just me betting on the infrastructure. I think they offer more efficiency based stuff but if you are just like saying like hey Pennix could run into like 600 pass attempts I don't have a lot of pushback on that either.
- [56:10]
Chris Welsh
Erickson, would you say that Michael Penix versus JJ McCarthy who would you rather?
- [56:14]
Jake Seeley
I'm going to go with McCarthy. I think that's my pick. I think just the infrastructure we've seen with this Vikings offense just be so great for fantasy. I know that we talked about earlier like Drake London Dark Horse Wide Receiver 1 Overall well Justin Jefferson's not a dark horse to be wide receiver. Well he's just, he's in the conversation. I mean he's ranked as a top three receiver for a reason. So if he ends up being you know the wide receiver one, you know chances are JJ McCarthy has a pretty good season. He's got you know again he has more weapons to just work with the offensive line. I feel good about with Minnesota so and I don't want to be again Pennix. The sample size from last year he only played a couple games so he's still you know a first time starter. Really kind of taking everything under it similar to McCarthy. So I will go with the Vikings QB.
- [56:56]
Chris Welsh
All right. We've got a tight end and we're going to do a couple quick hitters on some rookies versus vets. But you guys can take a lot of these debates and who would you rather where you can literally put it on the sheets with the Draft Simulator. You can level up your fantasy football draft prep by testing all this stuff out with Fantasy Pro's mock Draft Simulator. You can complete realistic mock drafts in minutes without waiting between picks. Tailor your mock drafts to your league specific settings including roster configurations and scoring systems. You can receive instant feedback and draft grades to refine your draft strategy and gain a competitive edge. You can try out all the different versions of what your teams can look like and prepare confidently. Dominate your draft with Mock draft simulator@fantasypros.com Mock we're going to do one tight end one. It's going to be gross. We're in the mud a little bit. There could be a super easy answer. But if you are around for our bold predictions show which you should check out on YouTube and you heard Pat Fitzmaurice talk. Pat might not completely agree with this one. All right, preparative feel. Yucky tight end 15 vs. Tight end 16 Tyler Warren rookie vs. Kyle Pitts and Tyler Warren is ranked higher on the ecr. Fool me once, right Rich, what do you say?
- [58:07]
Jake Seeley
Which one of these guys is younger? Is it Kyle Pitts? It's not right?
- [58:10]
Chris Welsh
No, I don't think so.
- [58:11]
Rich Rebar
No.
- [58:12]
Chris Welsh
I don't know man. I think it's pretty close.
- [58:13]
Jake Seeley
It's pretty close.
- [58:14]
Chris Welsh
But what say you Rich? Kyle Pitts, you. You go down this route again or is it rookie time?
- [58:19]
Rich Rebar
There's no way you can get me a draft. Kyle Pitts as long as he's on this as long as he's on this team because he's not a fit like the Zach Robinson doghoused him last year like they I can't believe he hasn't been traded this off season and maybe it's just because he's on that that fifth year option and the Falcons wanted just a little bit more than what teams are willing to pry away from him because over the final nine games last year he had. He had 183 yards receiving. Charlie Warner played more snaps than Kyle Pitts because he can run block and that what has the role in this offense always had and all the the throughout. Everyone that's run this scheme like you better be able to run block in this scheme. They asked Kyle Pitts to be that two way player. Last year he played 51 of his snaps in line. Last year his to open his career it was 32, 38, 21. He had a career low air yards per target as a default and Kyle Pitts wasn't able to generate yardage after the catch with those with those targets near the line of scrimmage that he wasn't getting early in his career with Arthur smith he was 55th among all tight ends and Y yards after the catch on targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He also just didn't get open. He was 41st out of 43 qualifying tight ends in ESPN's open score. Like he's just, he's just not a fit right now. Excuses have been made based on quarterback play right now being lost in schemes but right now Kyle Pitts is the common denominator of Kyle Pitts's problems. And maybe that's just, you know, him coming off of the knee injury. Maybe he'll never be that player. And in the multiverse, somewhere else else, there's a Kyle Pitts that was healthy, landed in a good offensive environment and his career took off and is thriving. But as long as he's involved in this scheme, I don't see a lot of outs for him, you know. You know, paying off. Granted, the price is as cheap as it's ever been. If you wanted to say, hey, whatever, I'm throwing that at the wall at. Like we said, he'll be 25 in October. We'll be doing this forever with Kyle Pitts. He's turning 25, 26, 27. But he's got to get on a new team, man. He's. He's got to get.
- [60:17]
Chris Welsh
If Kyle Pitts has like a top five tight end season, it might cause an incursion and we're gonna just have all the different Kyle pitches battling it out in the battle battle world. All right, Erickson, Kyle Pitts or Tyler Warren?
- [60:29]
Jake Seeley
I'll go Tyler Warren. I agree. Kyle Pitts needs a fresh start somewhere. I think that he's going to be great on the commanders in 2028 when he's a. He puts up a second thousand yard campaign. It's gonna be great.
- [60:39]
Rich Rebar
I can't wait for the Chiefs to get him. Like he just replaces Kelsey.
- [60:43]
Chris Welsh
This will be super awesome. All right, so let's jump. Let's do a couple quick hitters here. I've got some rookies versus vets. We've gone fantastic show, gone long, so I don't want to sit too high into these ones. But this is going to be pure rookie versus Vet. Upside is going to obviously come into play. Let's start with the running back one here, RJ Harvey, who is RB27. There's been a lot of talk about the moves that that team has been making as well versus DeAndre Swift, who is RB27 and just kind of always rich. Rookie versus vet. You want RJ Harvey, who is three spots lower or DeAndre Swift, 24 versus 27 in the ECR Arby's.
- [61:20]
Rich Rebar
I still lean Harvey and just betting on kind of like how we did the same argument with Hampton versus Montgomery. Right. Like you got kind of more of a boring player versus a guy that could just offer more upside. Right. To break the tie. The signing of J.K. dobbins, you know, didn't necessarily move a ton. I think it has A lot more to say about Audric estimate than it necessarily does. RJ Harvey in terms of, you know, capital. And I never in projections had, you know, RJ Harvey getting 300 touches either. So it wasn't like a big deal. I still had them operating with like a, in the capacity of some type of backfield split even with guys like estimate and Jalil McLaughlin. I think Dobbins takes away more from those guys than he necessarily does Harvey. Harvey also is in that like archetype where he doesn't necessarily need 300 touches because he's such an explosive player. Like giving him, you know, 200 to 225 touches could be significant. Like in the. Like we've seen that archetype running back that get a bigger fantasy boost in recent years, you know, with the Devon H. Hands. And we talked about Jir Gibbs earlier. So I still lean towards, you know, R.J. harvey. DeAndre Swift is doing a little NEO in the matrix this offseason now. Like he's dodging all the bullets. Like it's, it's. He's getting as pure run out as you can hope for if you're in the DeAndre Swift camp.
- [62:28]
Chris Welsh
Well, Erickson Swift is three spots higher in ECR over Harvey. So shiny new toy or I guess kind of what we've known before. Swift or Harvey Harvey.
- [62:38]
Jake Seeley
I will take the shiny new toy with RJ Harvey as well. I talked about it on a show, I think last week where I put DeAndre Swift as slightly overvalued. And it just. I don't think that the upside case is there for him every year of his career. You look, the best finish he's been is basically that RB2 and I think Reeves has talked about it. RB2 production is the easiest to replace. So you can get. I can just get. I'll roll with Javante Williams for a little bit and he'll probably do 75 of what DeAndre Swift does in the Bears offense. But then if I draft Harvey, oh man, this guy could end up being what if he is Camara in Sean Payton's offense? Again, not saying that's going to necessarily happen, but putting it within the range of outcomes. I know that's not going to happen for DeAndre Swift, most likely. So I will take the upside shot with RJ. No. Knowing that I can backfill RB2 production in case, okay, it starts out more as a committee. I can't rely on Harvey to open the year. We know J.K. dobbins isn't made for the long Term, we know that he's probably going to be most productive to start the year, but then Harvey's going to be the guy to lean on down the stretch.
- [63:35]
Chris Welsh
There you go. There's some value there. Last one, wide receiver. I struggled on who to put Travis Hunter up against. Travis Hunter, ECR35 at wide receiver. I'll just be frank about it. I told Rich about this. There was one point where I threw a Chris Godwin in there who is ECR 29. You know, there's an injury thing that's floating out there, but, like, Godwin is Godwin, and I switch it up to Deebo Samuel, who is lower than Travis Hunter, which I don't think really helps the argument, but you got some stuff going on with McLaren. You obviously know the touchdown equity of Deebo Samuel, so I'm not trying to necessarily throw both out there. But Rich, if you want to answer it, Travis Hunter versus the higher Chris Godwin, the lower Debo Samuel, who. And does he beat either one of these guys?
- [64:18]
Rich Rebar
Yeah, I would probably take a bet on Travis Hunter vs. Debo Samuel for sure. Maybe even Chris Godwin as we go into the hood here. But I think Debo Samuel is a great, great, real addition to the Washington Commanders. I don't necessarily think he's a great fantasy addition. I mean, I think that the target share is going to be largely flat. I don't think people realize that, like, Terry McLaurin didn't even have like an elite target share last year. Like, he was in the low 20 to 23 range. Like, he wasn't one of these guys pushing 25 to 30%. So the addition of Debo Samuel is definitely pull a little bit on that. You know, assuming they, they get this contractual, you know, schism worked out over the summer. Most of these things usually do. By the time we roll around to like August drafts, Debo hasn't played a full he's played season of his career. It's. It's just really hard to say, like, Debo offers a lot of upside. He's got one season that had like massive touchdown spike, and that was the year he was like fantasy relevant. So if you run hot with touchdowns, maybe you get there. But that we've seen that that's an outlier year for Debo Samuel. I do have some questions about Chris Godwin, too. Just with the Liam Cohen change, because the paired with the injury, paired with the AMEC Booka edition, do we see Chris Godwin have to play more outside? We saw him have last year just get Peppered with screen time targets right. 5.7 air yards for target, the lowest rate of his career. He had a 1.6% target share on route throws. 20 yards of further downfield. By far the lowest rate of his career. 16 screen rate. Well, guess who's got his offensive coordinator now. You know, you know Travis Hunter. And Travis Hunter is a guy who already had some of that screen stuff built in at Colorado. He also won downfield as well. And also I've. My thing with Travis Hunter is I've just been not wanting to place limits on him. Just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't happen. And it's funny that, like, we've seen like show a Otani, right? I know that's putting like, I'm making a lofty comparison to saying, could he be like Ohtani, like in the NFL. But I go back to Daniel Jeremiah at his pro day and he was like, this guy is running nothing but like deep ends and go routes and as pro day. And then they ask him to flip over and play defense and they're like, he's not even sweating. Like, it's like he just might be just not human. Like, he's just like operating at a different level. It's like, I just don't want to cap what we. What Travis Hunter can be because we haven't seen it before. What if he is a guy that can play two ways? What. You know, what if. What if he is able to translate that to the NFL? So I've just not been wanting to catch. He's an exciting pick. Like, Travis Hunter is fun, man. Like, I've already drafted good receivers. If I'm taking Travis Hunter here, I've already drafted good receivers on my team. I want to have some fun. I don't want to take a ball. Boring guy.
- [66:45]
Chris Welsh
That's a really good way to put it too, because the idea of vets for, you know, it's a little bit tougher when you go like, higher end on players. Like maybe in like the, you know, the. The Hampton vs Montgomery ones a little bit trickier maybe. But, you know, this is like you've already gotten a core piece. So Erickson, same thing. I'm just throw both at you here. Godwin was the original pick, ranked quite a bit higher. Debo's a little bit lower. But, you know, there's the McLaren stuff that's floating out their potential equity in that offense. Travis Hunter, does he take both of these for you? Because he is more fun.
- [67:15]
Jake Seeley
Yes. I'm going to take the guy that's more fun and not the guys that they're past their prime. Right. It's so clear that Chris Godwin's probably not going to do what he did last year. Debo's hopefully. I mean you're hoping Diva doesn't do what he did last year because he was terrible last year. But these guys have been banged up. They're not the number ones on their respective teams. Not to say that Travis Hunter is, but I just think that Cohen coming from, you know, know, originally from the Rams where you just see these concentrated target shares and Travis Hunter again, I don't know exactly how they will deploy him on offense but I know for sure when we look at the end of the year who has a really high target rate per outrun, Travis Hunter is going to be inside the top 10 because when he's on the field he's going to get targets. Whether but to the extent of what that turns into fantasy production and actual volume, it remains to be seen. But he's going to be targeted at a high rate when he is actually playing on the offense. So I'm going to take the fun pick here as well and go with Travis Hunter.
- [68:04]
Rich Rebar
Hunter and the Jaguars are just probably not in a position to rebottle Travis Hunter, right? Like say the plan is only give him 6 like a 65 route share to open up. Who else on this route outside of Brian Thomas Jr. Like are they leaning on in the past game? I don't just I don't think if like Travis Hunter is operating at like a 60 route rate and he's a productive player in their offense, they can't afford to take that off the field because the D, you know, you've got Diami Brown, Parker, Washington. You're hoping Brenton Strange makes a step forward, right? Like he's just a better football player than those guys.
- [68:34]
Jake Seeley
The fans will ride because these are the same fans I believe. Didn't they show up wearing the clown outfits the the Jaguars fans because of Balky the G, the old gm. So they're gonna riot if they're like put Travis on offense, get him off defense.
- [68:48]
Chris Welsh
Well, we want to hear from you guys. Of all the ones we talked about, who are the guys that you're picking? And if you've also got some who'd you rather debate, you can drop them in the comments below and we can all jump in in and we can have some bigger conversations about more players which we would love to have. We love having Rich Rich Rebar. You can check them over at Sharp Football Analysis Lord Reebs. You can check him out on Twitter. Make sure to follow him there. Erickson all across Fantasy Pros and we got draft guides coming up the podcast. You can find me at isitthewelsh and you can check out all the ranks over@fantasypros.com rankings. Make sure to lock in on the apps and the website because we got tons of tons and tons of content as draft season continues to move on. Thank you guys so much for hanging out with us right here on the Fantasy Football Podcast and we will talk to you next time.
- [69:31]
Rich Rebar
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasy pros hey.
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Ryan Seacrest
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Ben Walter
New out of nowhere obstacles. New all or nothing moments. New less than likely triumphs. Season two of the Unshakeables podcast has it all. Hi, I'm Ben Walter, CEO of Chase for Business and host of the show. We're excited to bring you more inspiring stories from small business owners who share the what are we gonna do? Moments that ended up changing everything. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Member FDIC Copyright 2025 JP Morgan Chase & Co.
- [72:19]
Chris Welsh
This is an iHeart podcast.