← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
2025 NBA Draft Preview: Cooper Flagg all-time rank, the Ace Bailey debate, 3rd pick inflection point
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Host 1
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Host 1
All right.
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Host 2
Welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Tuesday everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great start to your week. Well, no rest for the weary this year as we just finished the NBA Finals on Sunday night. Now we have the NBA draft on Wednesday. Far less time to prep than we usually do, but that's what we have our friend and expert Samusini for. I you know, Sam, every year it's been three years in a row now that the finals have ended and I've opened up your draft guide and I'm always just completely blown away by the quality of your work. I I think it's such an incredible resource for basketball fans around the world and I'm just very thankful for the work that you do. Sam, it is good to see you buddy. But before we get to the draft, we did just have an NBA Finals series and a team always said the trophy. A team that you've been a big fan of, a big believer in for a long time. A player in J Dub that you and I have both been big fans of for a long time. A lot of things coming to fruition for a young Thunder team that kind of felt to me like they might be a year too early. And some of that vulnerability did show at various points in the postseason. But here they are. They have the trophy with the still the super bright future. What were your big NBA Finals takeaways?
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Host 1
Yeah, so kind of multifaceted first and foremost. Thank you for that incredibly kind intro. But you know, let's talk through the Thunder. I guess first and my takeaways were this was the best team throughout the entirety of the year and they're an extremely worthy champion. I know that they showed some Flaws along the way, particularly with their offensive execution throughout the course of the playoffs. But, I mean, look, I thought that they won game seven on the back of their defense. Obviously, the disaster. And, you know, incredibly sad, you know, thing that happened with Tyrese Halliburton tearing his Achilles in the first quarter. Not with. I mean, withstanding, I guess, not even notwithstanding, but the way that Oklahoma City came back in the second half and just completely turned up all of the pressure, ratcheted up the intensity, forced all of the turnovers. I mean, the biggest difference to me in game seven, as much as anything, was that without Tyrese Halliburton, the Pacers didn't have a way to stop the Avalanches from rolling downhill. Like the snowballs from rolling downhill and becoming avalanches, is maybe the way to put it with Oklahoma City. That's the way that Oklahoma City has scored all season, right? They go on these. Oh, shit. It's a. It's an 110 run in 90 seconds. What just happened, right? Runs where, you know, they forced. Their defense turns into offense, and they force turnovers, and they get out in transition, they drill a three, then they go. They get a stop. They get out in transition, they get an easy bucket. They get another turnover, they go out, you know, and they drill another three, right? Like, it just absolutely snowballs upon itself and becomes this incredibly difficult thing to stop. It's like you're. You're trying to walk the ball uphill on a court, it feels like, to me. And Oklahoma City is just running downhill. They're skiing downhill and just making things so, so difficult. I'm done metaphors, I promise. But that, to me, without Halliburton there, they just didn't have a way to stop that. Because I thought what Halliburton did incredibly well, even when he wasn't completely healthy, was he's such a good decision maker and completely understands what the tempo of the game requires at certain moments to where he's able to calm the team down. And even in moments where things get a little bit hectic and you do end up with a turnover from Oklahoma City, Halliburton understood, okay, that's a turnover. That was an easy bucket. We got to calm it down. I love TJ McConnell. We both have real connection to TJ McConnell. You with the Arizona connection, me, he's from Pittsburgh, like, shout out Chartiers Valley High School, where he went shout out his father, who's like, an institution in Pittsburgh. But, like, I think that the thing that T.J. the really, the only thing that T.J. does not do well in this series, in my opinion, is that he plays at that frenetic pace that I think feeds into what Oklahoma City wants a lot of the time. You know what I mean? And, you know, big picture, I think that's ultimately why the Thunder were able to win this in Game seven. But, you know, even bigger, more grandiose picture. I'm just fascinated to see what you kind of think about Oklahoma City winning and what that means for the NBA now as a whole.
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Host 2
Yeah, you know, I. I thought that obviously the Tyrese Halliburton injury removed any sort of legitimate chance to win that game. I do think that even though everything you're saying about Tyrese is true, I want to be clear about that. I. There were also moments in the series where he was around and the floor, the bottom fell out for their offense because of. And mistakes. And, like, I mean, there was a stretch at the end of Game five where they turned it over four consecutive times in basically crunch time after they got it to two. And so I. I think, even though I agree with you that it was a huge bummer, and I would have much rather seen Tyrese be healthy for that Game seven. The outcome did feel kind of inevitable to me. Like, I didn't view game 7 as a coin flip so much as more of like, an 80 20. I thought OKC was going to get it done. And the main reason why was everything you're talking about in terms of that downhill defense to me was the. The insurmountable kind of thing that Oklahoma City brought to the table. And as you went back to each round, it just kind of felt like that was where it fell down. I mean, obviously, Jaw gets hurt in the Memphis series, but it's like they have that big lead, but then suddenly Memphis can't score for an entire half, and they come back and they win in the Denver series. Game four, down the stretch, Game five, down the stretch, the entirety of Game seven. Minnesota, down the stretch of Game four, the entirety of Game five. Whenever Oklahoma City really had their back against the wall, they hit a level on defense, which was pretty damn frightening, actually. And, I mean, I didn't think it was a coincidence at all that case on or. Cason and Dort and Caruso were all Fantastic in Game 7. That's just their environment. And then Shet, to me, was the guy that just tied it all together in terms of his ability to remove that, like, entry point. Like, I was talking about this on the show. Like, the Celtics had Drew Holiday and Jalen Brown, those are two frightening perimeter defenders. You go back to Denver with Kentavius Caldwell Pope and Bruce Brown. You go back to Golden State with Gary Payton and Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green. And like every team that wins the title has a lot of really good perimeter defenders. Jet is the guy that makes them different. He's the guy that brings that like, oh, now we have like a young Anthony Davis esque rim protector, perimeter switcher type of player that just ties it all together. And that's the scary thing to me is I really thought they won the title with their defense this year. Their offense on the road, it showed up when it needed to for the one time each series that they needed to get it done, but it was inconsistent, it was sloppy. I, I thought that that was the scary thing for the rest of the league is like, Shay seemed to figure out some things in this postseason about like how he needs to approach certain moments. J Dub, after Game 6 of the Denver series realized, oh shit, no one can keep me from the rim. And all of a sudden he was getting to the restricted area twice as often as he did in the first chunk of the postseason. You know, everybody kind of just figured out lessons along this way and a lot of times those lessons come in losses. A lot of times in NBA history, it's like they get eliminated and they have to learn those lessons in order to get over the top of this team was just so damn good defensively. Like, it wasn't just a championship level defense, it was an all time great defense. And I think that that bear.
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Host 1
Jason, like what I would bring up to you in that regard is just like, I think this team did learn from losing last year. They learned from losing last year to Dallas in that series, right? And it was a very similar outcome, right? Like Dallas used that crazy heavy peel switch defense to be able to cause all sorts of problems for Oklahoma City as they were going through these moments where it got really stagnant, right? And at the end of the day, I wouldn't say that. I would say Oklahoma City was a bit less stagnant I guess this year. Not, not crazy, less. But in the moments where they needed to be less stagnant, I think that the Caruso edition really helps with that. Just because he is somebody that moves it so quickly, he processes the game so quickly, he cuts back door and is such a sharp mover without the ball. I really do think that that addition helped them just in terms of like, forget the defense for a second and we can't do that. But the offense, in my opinion, helps them a lot because he isn't a guy that needs the ball in his hand, but he's a fairly reliable shooter. He goes through streaks for sure, but by and large, there are teams that won't guard him. But if you don't guard him, I do feel like he's going to hit 35% of his threes if you don't guard him. Right. And then on top of it, he cuts back door. He consistently moves the ball quickly and even just that little stuff. Zone buster. Exactly right. I think Chet, you know, continues to grow. I know that he shot the ball horrendously. Like, can you imagine what this playoffs looks like next year or the year after or something when J Dub and Chet, like, really start shooting the ball? I mean, that's the next level for these guys, right? They're great players. Yeah. It's funny, like, I know that coming into the year, that was one of the things that he really tried to work on in the off season. And it just. I think he reverted back after the injury after he hurt his hip, and I think just went back to what he felt comfortable with. I'm interested to see if he kind of goes back to trying to quicken it again this offseason, because I know that was a goal for him this off season. I mean, yeah, I think that this is a perfectly built team. They obviously have a million draft picks here moving forward. Sam Presti's done incredibly well. I think the next question I would ask you here is just, you know, I talked about this a little bit on my show right after the finals on Monday night, but. Or Sunday night. I'm sorry, what do you think your takeaways are in terms of team building here in regard to how Oklahoma City has been built, Indiana has been built. Some of these other successful teams this year have been built.
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Host 2
So, you know, I. I thought your intro and your draft guide, which we're going to get to in more detail in a minute, continues to be exactly what my biggest, like, kind of worldview around basketball has been really since the rise of Boston last year, which is like the advantage creators in the NBA take so many different shapes and sizes. You know, whether it's a forward like Tatum who can beat mismatches and pass out of it, or if it's a Tyrese Halliburton pace and space machine, or it's a Nicola Jokic power and playmaking machine, or Luca power and playmaking machine, advantage creation takes on all these different forms. But once the advantage is created. Basketball is pretty much the same down the line for, for the majority of teams, it's about the ability to knock down open catch and shoot jump shots, to drive closeouts, to make reads out of those closeouts, to finish at the rim and to be functional defensively in various different defensive coverages. And I think that, you know, as we look around with team building around the league, that's that dribble, shoot, pass and defend guy is what everybody in the league should be looking for. Like less specialists, more of these guys who can do everything because each series kind of dictates. Crusoe is a classic example. It's like him in his ability to just kind of catch in the middle of the floor and make little floaters from 10ft was huge against Denver when they faced all of that zone. He can guard fronting the post against big forwards like he did against Randle and against Jokic, but then he can also defend out on the perimeter like he did against Indiana's guards in this series. You know, there's just a. The versatility element is so key with Oklahoma City. And this is what I think is fascinating, Sam, and I'm curious to, to hear if this is what you think they'll do. I, I think for a team in their build with three max contracts, which again, they're not there now, but they will be in the, in the big picture, they almost have to live through the draft. And so when I look at it, I almost look at it as like, I think Sam Presti is going to avoid the. Let's trade for Cam Johnson. Let's trade for this role player who makes 20 million and I think he's going to lean more. I could see him doing something like that on an expiring where he maintains flexibility potentially. But like, I think a. A good portion of this is going to be Chet, J Dub and Shea on big contracts and then a bunch of dudes on rookie deals. And I think they're going to be looking for the next case in Wallace, guys that are dudes who can come in and play winning basketball right away in the NBA because they played in a winning context in college for a good coach that got them prepared to do that dribble, shoot, pass and defend, defend work because Shay, Jdub and Chad can kind of create these achievable roles through their advantage creation through Chet's defense, defensive flexibility. There's just so many different types of players that you can put around them. And so I, that. That's my. I'll pitch it back to you. Now, do you think Sam Presti ends up using his draft picks on role players coming back, or do you think he just cycles through draft picks on rookie contracts to support these?
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Host 1
I would guess that he will continue to cycle through draft picks. The thing that I will say is a, they're going to sign these guys to these, you know, 25 to 30% maxes, depending on like, J. Dub has to get the 30%, you know, language in his contract literally made all NBA this year. I can't imagine a world where that language doesn't even exist in the contract. I would bet that Chet gets it in terms of getting that language in the contract as well. Oklahoma City has a real tendency to just take care of its guys at the end of the day, but the key for them is like, do both of those guys, do either of those guys. Do none of those guys make all NBA? Because if J and Chat don't make all NBA, they're on 25% maxes next year, right? If they do, they're on 30% maxes. If you know they make all NBA, then you're looking at a circumstance where those three and Shay take up 95% of the $170 million cap is what it'll be that offseason, if I remember correctly. Whereas if neither of them do, it's like 80%, right? Or 75% or something like that. So there is like a pretty massive.
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Host 2
The voter, the voters hold their destiny.
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Host 1
I don't even know if they hold their destiny, but they certainly do hold real sway here. And how Oklahoma City's team build will continue to grow. I would expect them to continue to utilize draft picks. Look, I can see them using draft picks to go get somebody who they think is on like an amazing contract or maybe going to get, you know, like, there was a report today that the Kings, like, are looking at potentially moving Devin Carter. Right? If I was Oklahoma City, I'd be like, yep, that's our guy. Come on down, Devin. We will rehabilitate.
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Host 2
Why are the Kings done with Devin Carter? Is it just the Kings being the kids?
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Host 1
No, I genuinely have no idea. I don't even know if it's true. Like, it was just a report that came out today from Mike Scotto. I'm sure they've had at least conversations for Mike to report it. I'm not questioning Mike in any way, shape or form, but you know how motivated they are to move him. Who's to say, right? Like, they might want like a lottery pick. They might want a lottery Pick to move Devon Carter for what I know, but like if Oklahoma, if they were willing to do like Usman Jang and number 24 for Devin Carter, I'd be like, yeah Devin, come join us. Like we're ready. Like I can see something like that where they go get a younger guy, you know, that maybe didn't have the best rookie year and then kind of go a different way. But you know, that's kind of the way that I look at it for them, right Is they have all the flexibility in the world. They just have to find a way to stay cheap and replenish their players. Like I love Lou Dort for this team. I think he's an amazing player for this group. I do find it a little bit hard to believe that they're going to be able to keep him past this deal, right. And I think they recognize that, which is why they draft Case and Wallace. I, you know, I'm interested to see how the Alex Russo piece of it works out because he gets a little bit more expensive next season as well. I would imagine they're going to keep replenishing. The big one is Hartenstein. Obviously, like if there's no way Isaiah Hartenstein can make 30 million within this team build in 20, 26, 27, which was be the third year of his contract, that's a team option at the very least. I would expect that to be declined. And maybe Isaiah really just likes, you know, staying in Oklahoma City, but you know, he'll have a bigger market elsewhere would be my guess. That's why I think at 15 they're probably going to use it on a big. Would be my read on it in some way shape or forms. They need to replenish that position. But I digress a little bit. My big team building takeaways from this thing are you look at the teams that had like real high level success this year, right? Oklahoma City obviously is the paramount of this. Indiana I think is a very high end example of this. I think like Houston is a big example of this. Go get dudes who are absolute dogs. Like I want guys who compete who are going to give you everything that you need, who can dribble, pass, shoot and process the game, right? You better be strong and you better be physical. You better be able to deal with the physicality that the playoffs are going to present. And man, you better be fearless, right, like. And look these guys that you know in the draft, right, we can talk about the drafts, we're going to transition there at some point, but like they're 18, 19, 20 year old, whenever they get drafted, right? You don't always know like these guys are not wholly developed human beings, right? Like some of these guys that have questions in that regard right now, they can develop and no longer be guys that aren't dogs, right? Like, they can become real dogs, they can become tough dudes, right? But if I'm Oklahoma City, if I'm a team around the league and if I was building a team, I would be absolutely just looking for the biggest dogs that I can find who are tough, who want it, who really like are aggressive and fearless and then on top of it can dribble past shooting process. I think that this year as much as anything proved to me, just maybe this is just me, you know, being a little bit more connected throughout the league as well. Like the intel piece of this matters so, so, so much. It's so incredibly important. And I, I love what the background research, I mean Oklahoma City has like, I mean, I don't know the exact number. They have so many dudes that do intel into these guys. Like they dig and find every single thing that they can in order to get the best feel for the guys that they're bringing into their locker room. I think that's the way to go. I think that's the way of the future. At the end of the day, go get the absolute dudes that you trust to be the best competitors in the NBA. But they also have to be able to process the game at a high level and have dribble pass shoot skills. Blending Vice's signature dynamic storytelling with the high octane world of sports, Vice sports brings an exciting and diverse range of programming that goes beyond the game. From action packed live events to gripping behind the scenes documentaries, to hard hitting investigative pieces and in depth profiles of athletes, coaches, teams, Vice Sports captures the raw energy, drama and passion that makes sports truly unforgettable. Cat watch live events and other exclusive sports programs Only on Vice TV. Go to Vicetv.com to find your cable channel. 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- [27:35]
Host 2
This is something you and I have been preaching about forever. Just the competitiveness, because I would argue the competitiveness and attitude that is what stands between a player's current ability and his potential in so many different ways. And, you know, I. I saw a quote, you know, because you. You need like a. A psychopath. Like, JDub had 40 in a finals game. He is. He just did a very, very good job as the second best player on a championship team. After game six of the Denver series, I think he averaged 23 points per game on high 40s, high 30s from field goals and threes. And he had this interview with Scott Van Pelt, and he kind of was like, hinting at imposter syndrome, which is something that I think is really fascinating. And he was talking about how you constantly are wondering if you're good enough. And I was like. As soon as I heard him saying that, I'm like, this is the type of dude that I want to go to war with. This is the type of dude that I want to have in my corner. The type of dude that, like, even when he's killing it, even when he's achieving his goals, he's being eaten at in the back of his brain that he might not be doing enough, that he might not be as good as he's capable of being. Because, like, I know it comes with downsides and there's a lot of anxiety. And, you know, people who are wired that way can have bad days in different ways. You know, it's hard for you to find the fun in things sometimes.
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Host 1
Honestly, I'm wired that way. So, like, I get it totally whenever I hear J Dub say that stuff. So I completely understand it.
- [28:58]
Host 2
Exactly. And like. And it's one of those things where. When I, When I heard that, I was like, I was like, oh, man, like, I just love this kid, you know, like, and he's. He, to me, has been the most likable Thunder player for me to watch in this playoff run. I find his game to be very aesthetically appealing. I love his competitiveness, I love his energy and, and like, I think he's just a great example of what you're talking about in terms of finding those sorts of guys. There's a. There's a kind of guy out there that, like, when things get tough and things get really intense, their eyes almost gloss over and they become. They become kind of like weirdly timid, mainly just because, like, they're. It's just. It's just a. It's a psychology thing. I'm not sure what it is, but I like dudes that are just like, that are obsessed with the competition, that are obsessed with self improvement, that are obsessed with that sort of element. And this is a perfect example or a perfect time for us to pivot over to the draft. I. I want to start with this idea of your kind of like adjustments as an evaluator. So one of the things that I thought was fascinating in your. In your top six, and by the way, for that, for everyone who's listening, again, like, the finals just ended the other day. Sam has been covering the draft all year long. He does such an incredible job. My goal with this is not to get to every single player in the draft. We're just going to hit the top six guys. This is where Sam has kind of drawn a line of delineation between them and the. And the. It's high level starters and below, I believe. And for the most part, what I want you guys to do is if you have more intrigue about the draft, if you guys want to learn more about the draft, I'll have Jackson put a link to it in the. In the description to this video. But go Read Sam's draft guide. It's incredible. It's like 200 damn pages. I can't believe how much work you guys put into it. The. All that background information is there. You learn about the players families, you learn about their upbringings, you learn about the way that they succeeded at lower levels. Incredible detail on strengths and weaknesses. I'm just going to be giving you guys my 2 cents on some film that I watched today. Sam has been just doing such an incredible work, so I want to make sure you guys get over there and support the guide as much as you can. But, Sam, before we get into the actual players, I thought it was interesting. You've got a lot of, like, movement shooters in your top six, which I thought was fascinating. And then this concept of dribble, shoot, passing and def. Just talk to us about how you're, like, outlook on the draft has changed in recent years and how that colored your approach this year.
- [31:20]
Host 1
Yeah. So somewhat applicable to what we're talking about in a lot of ways. Right. So I. I like guys that are physically strong enough and that are, like, wild competitors and are incredibly, like, you know, mentally tough. So, like, a good example of this is Trey Johnson. Right. It actually took me meeting Trey Johnson and like, watching him work out to understand because if you watch Trey Johnson, like, what was your immediate take of Trey Johnson when you watched his game?
- [31:55]
Host 2
Unbelievable scoring potential. But he's. He's moving just a little too fast right now. Like, he just needs the game to slow down a little bit. Yeah, that was the main thing that stood out.
- [32:02]
Host 1
A little bit of that for sure. Also, just like, the physicality, like, he's not overly physical right now. Right. You know, doesn't necessarily drive in straight lines to the rim because he just, like, kind of can't hold his ground. Right. But then you watch him work out, like, I watched this dude work out. Jason, I swear to God, it was the most impressive shooting workout I've ever seen from a teenager. He sprinted for an hour, knock down shots off of all sorts of, like, different complicated actions. The stamina to be able to run for this long, the ability to be able to knock down shots at this level. And then I go up to him after, I literally say, trey, that. That was one of the most impressive workouts I've ever seen from a teenager as a shooter. And I just want to say, like, congrats, like, that was awesome. Right? And he goes, oh, thank you. Like, I appreciate that so much. Honestly, I shot better yesterday. And I walk over to his trainer and he goes. He goes, yeah, he shot better yesterday. And I was like, wow. Like, that's pretty ridiculous. So the thing that you learn about Trey Johnson, though, when you do the intel is like, this dude's like a competitor and like a dog. And, like, he wants it. He wants to be great in a significant way. He really wants, like, he will do whatever it takes to be great at basketball. I think that he'll problem solve it in the way that he has to problem solve it in order to become a real, like, dude as a basketball player at the end of the day. So, like, with him, you know, doesn't probably the player, I guess that. I mean, outside of Ace maybe, but like, a player that doesn't totally fit on, like, the face of what we talked about in the last section of certain things. But then you get to understand who the human is and you're like, oh, no, I'm just betting on this dude. You know what I mean? Like, he'll figure it out. At the end of the day, he, like, he's an elite shooter. I saw a video of him, so it was. I think it was shots. It was a second workout of the day, and they track all of the shots that a guy takes pre draft, right. With. I forget what the app is. Sorry. I'm not shouting it out. One of my. My friends who's his trainer is literally just yelling that. I can't remember the name of this app. It was shots, I think, like, 1750 to 1780 of the day. Or maybe make, like, 1750 to 1780 of the day. Every single shot that Trey Johnson took, they have the arc, like, behind the ball. Right. Like, it's a golf shot, like a tracer. Right. Every single shot had the same exact arc every single time. On shot 1750 to 1780, it was, like, rhythmic and, like, weirdly soothing and calming. Kind of like. Do you understand what I'm saying? Like, just watching it, I found watching.
- [34:51]
Host 2
Him so much fun to watch compared to Ace Bailey. Just in terms of the shot mechanics. The shot mechanics are so, so, so beautiful with him. He was my favorite player I watched.
- [35:00]
Host 1
Was he?
- [35:01]
Host 2
I'm excited to talk about it.
- [35:02]
Host 1
I really like Trey a lot. I kind of regret there's a man. I think that I probably should have him ahead of five, honestly, like, the more that I just do this, the more I buy. But regardless, I digress in terms of that imposter syndrome. Yeah. All the time. I'm constantly tinkering, constantly trying to figure out what' what's wrong. As long as I get them in the right tiers, I feel okay. Yeah. So to answer your question, basically in terms of like the way that I've changed this, I care a lot more about the things that I kind of mentioned, right? Like, I care a lot more about are you physically capable of dealing with NBA, you know, physicality, I guess, is the way to put it. Are you capable of handling what's going to come your way mentally? Are you capable of being able to dribble, pass, shoot and process the game at a high level? Right. Are you going to be able to map the court defensively and understand where you need to go there? Like, there's so much more that goes into this than just like, you know, that boy, nice basketball, whatever it comes to the NBA, like, this stuff is hard, right? It's. Why, like, honestly, I, I have a lot of questions about Derek Queen. I know you haven't gotten to him yet, but like, you know, I have questions about him as a shooter, I have questions about him as a defender, but I kind of think that he's just physically capable and is a total ass kicker Maryland. And he's 69 with a 71 wingspan and can, you know, get to his spots on some level and just grew up. He's like one of those kids that grew up playing basketball against guys older than him. And because of that he just has this ability to get to where he has to get to. Right. He understands what it takes. So I, you know, it's a, it's a tricky question, but basically everything we talked about in the last section with Oklahoma City, with Indiana, you know, even with Houston, I think fits into this. Getting guys who can dribble, pass, shoot, high level processing ability. Yeah, that's kind of the move for me. I want those guys on my team.
- [37:15]
Host 2
So explain two more quick ones and then we'll get into the players. Explain to everyone why you said in your draft, in your draft guide intro that you were lower than the content. The consensus after the top two. What do you think led you to that belief? Was there something specific or was it just naturally how you landed on each individual?
- [37:35]
Host 1
I think that some people see star power in this group. Like, I think that some people think like, oh, Trey Johnson, like he might be like a 28 per point per game scorer. Ace Bailey is obviously a guy that people see a lot of upside in that I am skeptical on for a few reasons. You know, I think people see real upside in vj edgcomb right? To be like a potential star in the NBA. I Think those guys are all going to be like good starters is where I'm at. Like I'm not. I like them. I like them as players. I think they're going to be solid players. I think they're all going to make like nine figures in the NBA and be super successful in the NBA. I still know that I see real like high level star outcomes for those guys necessarily. And I think that might be where I differ from consensus with this group. And that's like again like I think they're all going to be really, really good players. And I think like there are a number of players below this like Cedric Coward, Colin Murray, Boyles, Carter, Bryant, Common Malu watch like Malawatch is another one that I think people see like oh like he might be like a real all defense guy who can step out and shoot it like Miles Turner maybe at some point and can do this, that and the other thing. And I'm just like no, I guess I see a really solid starting center here who's almost certainly position position locked in the center position. Definitely a drop coverage. Big will be okay when he gets caught on an island switching like not going to be a monster at that necessarily. You're not going to go into a game scheming that he's going to switch. You know what I mean? So I think he's going to be a good player. I think he's going to be like a valuable starting caliber center in the NBA basically. Yeah, I think that might be where I differ on this group is basically I see a little bit less star power than people do but do see some real potential for high end starters in the class.
- [39:26]
Host 2
That makes sense. And the guys you're mentioning, they, they all do have those flashes. It's just I'm with you. I tend, I tend to lean more towards the other side with those specific two guys. The second round. This has been something that I think has been interesting. Yeah, kind of in the building for a while, but obviously nil. Convincing players to return leads to a weaker draft pool. That's simple mathematics problem. Right. But as this even beyond the draft, like I would imagine this is affecting trade negotiations. Like five second round picks going to Phoenix in that KD deal. How value, how valuable is a second round pick now these days with all the players staying in college potentially quite a bit lower.
- [40:11]
Host 1
I would tell you Jason, this is a, this is a weak second round. I have fewer like full guarantee grades than I've ever had and it might get worse next year. Like obviously everything is getting settled with the house settlement with college basketball and like the nil space and you know, supposedly the SEC schools are going to have way less to spend than the Big east schools. I mean, look like we can have an adult conversation about this. If anybody thinks that schools in the SEC are going to spend less than the Big east schools, I'm just going to be skeptical of that until it happens, right? Like we can all say that these schools have $20 million to spend on football and basketball programs and some teams probably want to spend a little bit on women's basketball too. I'm skeptical that they're not going to get a little bit more money in there to be able to get these kids into school and be able to get these kids going. So look, I look at it that way. If you want to say like, oh yeah, like the house settlement's going to force some of these kids to come out again next year, totally understand that perspective. We'll see what happens. It's going to be something that bears itself out over the next year. But I mean like this is a very weak pool. I have 36 guarantee guys. And next year, like you have to think about it this way, Jason. There are a lot of players in this pool that got an extra year from the, from the COVID year, right? Yeah, like freshmen in 20, 20, 21. There are still a number of these guys that got the extra Covid year. Basically. I think everybody on my board ranked from 43 with Bryce Williams, Chaz Lanier, Brooks Barnheiser, Micah Peavey, Max Shulga, Kobe Bray of vlad golden. So 43 to 51. Every player got an extra Covid year, right? So those players are now gone from college. Now it's only going to be like the four year seniors that are going to be in, in the second round. I only have, I think one, no, two four year seniors right now. I have Hunter Salas and I have. Who was it? It was. It was Cam Jones at Marquette. That's. That's it. Like you'd be bumping all these other guys up a level. Like Jamiah May, Shaq, I love Jemima. He's one of my favorite players in the class. I think that you might be able to make a case he's one of the 20 best perimeter defenders on planet earth right now. Like I think he is that good on defense. He can't offense. Like he is like the easiest way to phrase it is he can't offense right now. Unbelievable competitor. Unbelievable leader at Tennessee. Like, just doesn't really have that skill at this point. Not a shooter. Doesn't seem super comfortable handling the ball. I don't know how he's going to score. Comfortable passing for sure. Yeah, I think he's below where Ryan Dunn was as an offensive player for sure. But that guy like next year, if he was in the class and we get a similar number of kids that enter, he be Damn near like 38 on my board. Like a top 40 guy that would be like almost expected to get a guarantee contract, like a full like roster spot on a team. So yeah, I mean, nil has really obliterated the second round and it's possible that the house settlement really changes the paradigm a little bit here and forces some of these kids out again next year. And thus would make the second round picks, to answer your original question, more valuable again into the future. And if I was a team that was moving second round picks around, right, I would want picks that are like a little bit further out into the future in order to like make the bet, you know what I mean? But yeah, that's kind of where I'm at on it. I'd like a little bit of.
- [44:17]
Host 2
It's super interesting and I, I think it'll change a little bit with each, with each passing year as like different kind of situations surrounding both the league and like what like expansion could have an effect on that if that took place at some point in the next couple of years. There's, you know, we can see continuing changes in terms of how much money goes to G leaguers. Like there's so many things that could change over the years. But I found this whole dynamic about our pipeline to the NBA to be very fascinating. But let's get to our top six guys. Sam, number one, obviously, Cooper Flag going to the Dallas Mavericks almost certainly. You said that this is the second highest grade in your draft guide in the last decade behind Victor Wembanyama. Explain for everybody why you're so high on Cooper Flag.
- [45:01]
Host 1
Yeah, he's just the safest player really that I've evaluated. He's even safer than Victor on some level because Victor had dealt with injuries previously. But like speaking to the competitiveness aspect, like the toughness, the physicality, the, the willingness to like fight and scratch and claw for every inch. Like Cooper Flag just completely changed the entire program at Duke through his presence as a freshman who is like I think 17 when he got there, like he completely changed everything that they did. You hear at USA Basketball last summer in the select camp, like he went there and it was like totally fearless, had no issues, was completely Comfortable. It was one of the better players on the select team last year of guys that are in the NBA and presumably should be starring in the NBA, even though they might not be quite there yet. Right. So there's a. There's going to be no fear with him entering the NBA. He is an incredible defender. His positional defense is unbelievable. He has some stuff with like high hips, I think, where he'll, you know, not even high hips, just like a little bit stiffness through his hips maybe where he will get beaten a little bit more often on the ball than what I think people expect. But he's really good at leading his man into the help even when he does get beaten off the ball. And his recovery ability is awesome. He gives consistent second and third efforts. He just completely understands how to process the game, how to map the court. He's going to be a real defensive playmaker. Offensively, he developed into a serious mismatch threat who became an awesome shot maker this year. Reminds me like a little bit of the way that Pascal Siakam gets it done right where he is. Yes. Very capable of getting a smaller guy on a switch and just beating them to the rim. Right. Like he will be able to just like use his athleticism and burst to be able to get all the way to the basket. He's like 6, 8 with a 7:1 wingspan. Like there. There are no issues there. Then there are also moments where he is just. He's going to find like 8 to 10 points a game by cutting and establishing position that way or just getting a backdoor cut to the rim and scoring, getting out in transition, running the court, leading the break or just like filling lanes or offensive rebounding and being able to crash the glass consistently and find points that way. It's like the best dirty work player in the class kind of. While also being this real mismatch threat who can break you down off the dribble, get to a step back jumper, get to a turnaround jumper, make them going to both his right and to his left. He's a ridiculous player. He's a completely absurd basketball player. For somebody to be 18 years old and have this kind of a complete basketball game is absurd. It's completely ridiculous. It does not happen, guys. I'm telling you, it does not happen where guys are this complete when they're young. I think that this is like a real. This is going to be like a top five guy in the league at some point in terms of like impacting winning. Some people will complain about the questions he has like being able to separate from his man. But I think he might just develop into such a good shooter because he's such a good worker that it's not going to matter. Like he's going to shoot over the top of these guys and it's going to be fine.
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Host 2
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Host 1
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Host 2
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Host 2
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Host 1
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Host 2
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- [52:39]
Host 2
I think that's the. The Tatum comp that you keep seeing thrown around is like this idea of a guy who is incredibly versatile that does literally everything well at every level of both sides of the ball. But Tatum has this tendency to struggle to get leverage against the peak defenders in the league downhill. I love that you brought Up Siakam because to me that is the big difference between Cooper and Tatum. Tatum loves taking jump shots and it's not just a, it's not just a getting separation thing. It's not just a first step thing. Like Tatum has a pretty jump shot and he loves taking it and it's just like part of like his basketball character. He's a, he loves to take jump shots. Cooper has that downhill attacking attitude. He, it's, it literally looks like he's playing on a slant downhill towards the room. You can tell that's part of his approach on a possession to possession. This, that to me, he is the quintessential example of everything you mentioned off the top of the show today in terms of dribble, shoot pass, defend. He is that at 610. He is that at this level of athleticism that you don't see too often with his size. He is that. But like everything isn't just, you know, we talk about the role players, you know, we're going to talk about VJ Edgecomb and what he might be able to become as like a role player, dribble, shoot pass defend kind of guy. Cooper does it, but like everything's an A minus or better already and it's only going to continue to get better as team, as, as, as things expand. Like I loved your breakdown in your guide about kind of like people don't realize because you know, at Duke it wasn't quite the same. But he was an incredible defensive playmaker before, before college. Like a, like a legitimate like five stocks who would just put up absurd.
- [54:25]
Host 1
Yeah, like truly historic defensive playma. He got to college like there, there's a game if you want to go watch him against the Spanish national team. He's playing under 17 World cup in the gold medal match against the team that had like Ethan El Mansa and Adai Mara, like high major college players to, you know, high level professional basketball players. And Almonta's case, he was off, I can't remember. He's 14 or 15, right. Like he was super young. He's like at least two years below his age group or two years playing up two years with his age group with, you know, the best players in his age group in the literal world was two years playing up right. He had like nine blocks and five steals or something in this game. He completely dominated the game just through defensive activity. It was, it's honestly one of the coolest games I've ever seen a player play at that level where he just completely took it over through being a dog and like deciding, yeah, no, you guys aren't doing anything with me today, no matter what. I might not have the skill level that you guys do, but I'm gonna figure it out and I'm gonna beat you guys. At the end of the day.
- [55:39]
Host 2
He has this. And you broke this down really well in your guide as well. That this like anticipation piece and this competitiveness piece too. That all I could think about, you know, as I'm watching him through the NCAA tournament and as I'm watching film this morning, I. I just imagine him within, you know, three, four years of NBA basketball becoming such a high level defensive processor too. As a guy that can kind of suss out actions and get out in front of them. He has this like rangy ability to cover ground, which is super valuable. I. With. Within the respective. Within the context of Dallas. Do you think? Because I, I love the idea of watching Cooper and Anthony Davis play defense together. Do you think he has the ability to play the three alongside AD in a center?
- [56:27]
Host 1
I do. I think his best. I think the best thing that they will do is probably when they're playing him at the 4 and playing AD at the 5. But they obviously have Derek Lively and they're going to want to get Derek Lively on the court as much as possible too. I do think he can play the three. I don't really see an issue there at all. He's comfortable enough playing with the ball, playing in ball screens. Defensively, he's going to be able to handle it, no problem. I think he'll probably be a little bit better at the four, if you made me guess. Really what I want him to be able to do is just roam around and be like a monster help defender like that. That would be the best role for him is if you could find a way to actualize that in his game because that's what he was in high school and he was just like truly elite at that in high school, just roaming around and being able to wreak havoc across the court that way. I look, I might like be, you know, a little bit too strong on Cooper or something. I actually kind of love this Dallas team built now like in a real way, you know, I think Nico fell ass backwards into it and probably doesn't deserve a whole lot of credit for it. But like, you tell me that you're giving me Cooper, Anthony Davis and Derek Lively and then you're going to get Kyrie back as well, probably late next season, you know, fully healthy, probably in 20, 26, 27 Ah, man. Like it'll depend on how Clay ages. It'll depend on how Kyrie comes back from the injury. You could sell me that that team's a title contender. Like you could. Maybe not year one, obviously, but year to Cooper if Kyrie's fully healthy, like, you could sell me that that's like a 55 win team. If it breaks right for them and they make the right moves, like they're going to figure out like how to utilize the Daniel Gafford asset, the PJ Washington asset this year. There are things they're going to figure out and I think they're going to struggle a little bit this year just because they don't have that offensive playmaker right now. But dude, like, that infrastructure is really sick. I think I am a fan of it for sure.
- [58:32]
Host 2
It'd be a fun year to get the ball to Cooper a lot and just kind of see what he can do on the ball. Especially, you know, like he, he to me is. The versatility you mentioned to me also comes in the form of offensive utility in the sense that this word kind of does bring me back to Tatum, where I see him being a guy who can play low post, high post, face up, ball screens, inverted ball screens. I, I can literally see him functioning in so many different types of actions that I kind of see him being kind of like a shape shifter, so to speak, as, as Dallas is going through a very, you know, kind of tumultuous era in terms of roster turnover. Because I, I wouldn't be surprised. You know, I, I think they could move Gafford and they could move P.J. washington this summer. I think they probably should considering they're starting caliber players that don't have a role on this team in the starting lineup. But there you could talk me into Dallas going into the season with a glut of forwards and just being like, let's see how this goes and then we'll make a move at the deadline. And if that's the case, like, you're going to get to see a lot of this sort of versatility from Cooper and him filling all these different types of positions. I have my concerns about his absolute top end just simply because of like some of the first step quickness and like ability to get separation from elite defenders. But I. The way you characterize him is like the safest bet is where I fall firmly in line with you. Like there's just no chance, barring injury, that Cooper flag isn't a very, very, very good NBA player. He's like Bust proof in that regard. Just because there is this combination of a minus traits at every every position. Is he the biggest, most athletic forward of all time? No, but he's going to be one of the bigger and more athletic forwards in the NBA. Is he the best ball handling forward? No, but he's going to be one of the better ball handling forwards in the like. He's just, he's, he's above average at every single, considerably above average at every single trade. And then it goes back to what we talk about at the top. He's just an M effort dude. He's just like, he's just going out there with his hair on fire trying to win every single game and trying to gain every single advantage. And that to me is the kind of guy that you want to build your franchise around. Number two, Dylan Harper. First of all, before we even get into him as a player, do you, do you think the spurs are just going to take him and just figure it out?
- [60:50]
Host 1
I do, yeah. I would expect they just take him. Here's the reason why. If you're the spurs, you have Victor, you have de' Aaron Fox. Now you have, you know, Devin Vassell, seemingly it seems like they're not going to move him. You have all these dudes, right, that are pretty good at basketball around Victor, who we think is probably going to be one of the five best players in the league next year. Right. Like you're probably not picking number two overall again. And if I'm them, I want to accumulate the elite talent and then just figure it out later. Figure out the what fits, what doesn't. Honestly, I think he's a, I think Dylan Harper is a better prospect than Steph Castle. So I'm picking Dylan and then figuring out if I have to move Castle later as opposed to, oh, I have Castle already, let's move down and you know, not take him in favor of actualizing Castle. You know what I mean?
- [61:40]
Host 2
No, I agree with you there. I think like in general, I believe, especially considering the tier we were talking about before the, before we started recording, like I thought, you know, oh, Khan canippel if you think of him as like just a big shooter who's really smart and who can pass coming off of screening actions. It's just so much utility with Victor Wembanyama. There's so many like different things that make sense. There's especially on a Deer and Fox team. You can imagine him slipping out of guard, guard screens with the Aaron Fox. There's all these different things you can figure out. But the bottom line is, is like if you had to trade Khan or you had to trade Dylan, you're going to just get so much more for Dylan and, and he's just a substantially better asset that you can move forward with. And the San Antonio spurs are already going to have to make some sort of roster balancing trade at some point in the future. It's just kind of inevitable. So to your point, you take the asset, you figure it out later. My first takeaway when I watched Dylan today and I, I, I have there, the jump shot stuff is super interesting with him for me because there are so many examples of this kind of player in, in basketball history where an on ball dominant guard shoots the ball pretty well off the dribble but can't shoot it off the catch. Like sh. Shay is this type of guy and Shay, I actually see some corollaries between Shane and Dylan. I don't think Dylan has Shay's first step or anything close to it. But what he does have is like that downhill big guard approach mixed with like Dylan's so good at chaining together counter moves which kind of reminds me a little bit of Shay. The, the big thing though with Dylan for me is I feel like his shot is a little down in front of his face and it's got a little bit of a long load up. And I think that that's super interesting because even in the catch and shoot stuff, he's like deadly when he's open, but it falls off a cliff when he's being guarded. And so to me like whether or not he reaches his inevitable upside, his eventual upside will come down to some shot mechanic stuff like, like kind of like making the release a little bit more compact, a little bit more arc, a little bit quicker, those sorts of things. But in terms of just being a big downhill guard that can get to his spots, there's just such a, it's such a rare thing in basketball at his size and that's what gets me excited about him. Tell everybody why you have Dylan Harper at number.
- [63:49]
Host 1
Yeah, so first and foremost your read on what he needs to improve is dead on because you know that's exactly what he's working on. Pre draft like I went and saw him work out like that is exactly. He was doing all sorts of pull up shots off of ball screens, you know, reading this, okay, defender here, I need to get to my step back to my right and then be able to shoot with balance going up a force, everything like that, you know what I mean? So all of that is what he's trying to work on and I think what they see as the next step for him, enormous frame, first and foremost. Six, four, four and a half, six, ten and a half wingspan, eight, six standing reach. Just like a massive, massive lead guard. Right. Uses that size incredibly well to be able to maintain advantages. Good at creating that initial advantage with the shiftiness, the creativity of handle. I think we often, like, think about guys who can, like, string together moves. Maybe I'll string together moves, but, like, who have, like, sudden moves as being these great ball handlers. And oftentimes they are. But I think that what makes Dylan a great ball handler is the creativity that he has in terms of his gathers, in terms of his ability to get from one spot to another with the ball, the creative mindset with which he thinks about stringing moves together. You know, he'll go hesitation, right to left, crossover, left to right, crossover, take one step forward, spin back off of the defender. He's setting guys up constantly. He's playing the chess match in his head for how he thinks you're going to react before you react or, like, before you actually make the decision on how you react. Right. But then on top of it, he is actively manipulating you to be able to do those things. Right. He just thinks about ball handling and getting to his spots in really, really creative ways at the end of the day. Totally. But. But again, like, I would argue that Shea, like, didn't have a monster first step coming out of Kentucky. I thought he had a good first step. It was more the. What makes Shea so special? I mean, this is getting into, like, the really nitty gritty stuff. Like, I think Shay's, like, ankle, like, his ability to, like, put force through his ankles on balance and, like, be able to maintain balance in such awkward positions is, like, unlike anything I've ever seen, to be honest. Him being able to, like, extend through these weird, like, split defenders while extending through and navigating all of these bodies in. In tight. Like, that's what makes him special. I think Dylan has some of that. I'm not going to sit here and say, like, he is, like, the Shay Gilgis Alexander superpower to be able to do that. What I think Dylan is really good at, and this is why he drives so much rim pressure at the end of the day, is that he's really, really good at navigating those bodies on the interior and setting them up in different ways to be able to get to the spots that he wants. Just looking through the numbers here. Oh, exceptionally rare. Like, doesn't happen rare, basically. I think there are probably a few. I can't think of them off top my head, but like there are a few that got to the rim at this level. I think he took like five shots at the rim in half court settings per game this year, despite the fact that Rutgers had like the worst spacing in the history of basketball. And like it was crazy how often he got to the rim is some horrendous hoops. Like, you understand what I have to watch, Jason. You understand like why whenever we get to the NBA playoffs, I'm just like, this is amazing. Like basketball. It's the best, isn't it, guys? Like, this is so good. I had to watch ruck. I had to watch a thousand minutes of Rutgers basketball this year. Like this is where we're at. Yeah. Just like so good at navigating bodies in the paint. Knows how to find creases in an elite level. Balance is tremendous. Ability to finish both off of one or two feet. Can go around you if you're longer. He's willing to go and like he goes in straight lines to the rim. He will go through. You go through a defender's chest. Chest if he has to, to get to the rim. Really good at drawing fouls. Got much better at finishing at the basket this year despite the fact that they had no spacing. 65.3% at the rim. Hit over 62% of his layups. That was a big development actually because he was not always great at that in high school. You could see the potential though. You could see the way that he understood how to use angles. And he would have some like crazy highlight reel finishes in high school, but finished like in the thieves, like in the 50s, basically. Right. In terms of percentages this year was 65.3 and really figured out how to use his frame at a really high level. Yeah, catch and shoot like real shooters. The catch and shoot guy. 2 to 1 assist, the turnover ratio. I think we should talk about the passing real quick as well. I don't think you got to see like crazy passing stuff. If you watch the Rutgers tape necessarily. If you go back and watch some like USA Basketball stuff, if you go back and watch some AAU stuff, He has some real passing ability that I think we didn't get to see quite as much this year. That he can really make plays, particularly live dribble with his left hand. He's extremely comfortable shooting that ball out with velocity to the corner, to the cross wing. He'll throw lobs at a high like he Just has a real understanding of how to make plays if that's what he's being tasked with doing.
- [69:17]
Host 2
Yeah, you know, his timing stood out to me on both the passing and the scoring front. The, on the playmaking front. I sometimes felt like, like he would come off of a screen and face a hard hedge. And I think sometimes I thought he'd get rid of it a touch too quickly or a touch too, like on a line instead of on the loft. Sometimes he'd throw that cross court pass when I felt like he could have pressed like just a half second longer to get the low man to commit just a little bit further before he threw it. Like it felt like sometimes the timing of his passing was just a touch off. But again, that could be associated with the spacing that you're talking about with his scoring ability. The timing is so sharp. And I think this actually plays a big role in his finishing because like you talked about it, guards miss layups. That, that's just what they do in basketball, even at the NBA level. Like you're going to see guards make, you know, maybe 55% of their layups because it's just, there's so much athleticism around the rim and it's just difficult to finish in traffic in the NBA. I feel like a big part of what made Dylan such a good finisher is just the timing of when he would attack in his change of pace sequences. I, I think that if he can build out that playmaking piece that you're talking about and if he can add the refinement to the jump shooting, there's like real legitimate upside there. And I think that's important for people to understand. Like in Sam's Tears here, he's got Cooper as a number one tier and then he's got Dylan as a number two, which I believe you mean you, you, you view him to be a safe bet to be an all star, is that correct?
- [70:46]
Host 1
Yeah, if I was project like outcomes here, right. The way I think of this all is in this might come from like having grown up like playing poker and everything like that. Like, I think of it as like, okay, what kind of outcome am I betting on here? Like if I'm putting my money in betting on an outcome with Dylan Harper, I would say like all star would be my bet on where he ends up settling in. Maybe like a lower end all NBA player. I can see a world where he reaches that status. But if you made me say right now, like I feel better about saying he's going to be like an all star caliber guard.
- [71:20]
Host 2
But this is a real guard. This is a real prospect. This is a, this is a, a really high level player there. At number two. I want to go somewhat quickly through number three and four because I do want to spend some time on, on my favorite watch from today, Trey Johnson, Khan. To me, I, I think. Yeah, yeah, that too. So, so the. I thought you having con all the way up at number three was really fascinating to me. And I've been thinking about this concept a lot over the last week because of the Desmond Bain and Kevin Durant trades, which is just the simple idea that, like, if you have a guy that can run off of a screen and hit enough of the jump shots that it actually dictates that the coverage must account for it. Meaning you must bring your big man up to the level of the screen and that guy is capable of passing out of those actions the way that Desmond Bain can, the way that Kevin Durant can. I think it's one of the most underrated value pieces in the NBA. Like Kevin Durant was one of the best jump shooters in bat, Was the best jump shooter in basketball last year, according to Synergy. So, like, I think that that is still such a valuable skill. And I, I'm not saying I would have con at three, but I do love this idea of the, of having a guy that can legitimately be a threat to both shoot and pass. Coming off of screening actions is a huge bit of value while also being in the context of what we talked about earlier, while having positional, positional size and being a competitive dude that plays really hard defense. So explain to everybody why you have Khan at all the way up at number three.
- [72:42]
Host 1
Like, he doesn't really have a hole, I would argue, in his game. Like, that's the big thing for me whenever I'm trying to figure out, like, okay, this guy's gonna be like a really high level starter. I'm so glad you brought up Desmond Bain because that's the guy I've been comparing Khan to throughout the entirety of this thing.
- [72:58]
Host 2
Oh, really?
- [72:58]
Host 1
I think it's very similar. He is an elite, elite, elite level shooter. It is insanely rare. Like, forget like how rare. I just talked about, like, you know, Dylan Harper's rim pressure is for somebody to shoot 48, 41, 91 as a teenager in the ACC, like, almost go 50, 40, 90 as a teenager is unheard of. Guys like that is insane. Khan is one of those guys who is capable of morphing his game to what is required, I think is the easiest way to say it. Did you watch any of the ACC tournaments this year in the tape that you watched of Khan?
- [73:38]
Host 2
I went back quite a ways. I'm pretty sure I watched two or three of his tournament games.
- [73:43]
Host 1
The ACC tournament games.
- [73:44]
Host 2
He stepped up a lot when Cooper was exactly right.
- [73:46]
Host 1
So the ACC tournament games are the ones where Cooper was out and he was the one that was running the show. And he averaged, like, over 20 points per game on the ACC tournament MVP. Clearly showed that his game can scale up. And the reality was this year, it was just like, no, like, I need to be the number two guy with Cooper. I need to be the secondary ball handler who can dribble, pass, shoot, make plays off ball screens, knock down shots at a high level, and then defensively, like, he's always in the right position. It's funny. Like, people will bring up, oh, like, how conquered it will. Like, he's never going to be able to defend at the NBA level. Like, he's never gonna be able to do this, never be able to do that. Look at how he moves, like, all these things. And I'm just like, guys, this guy was a better defender than Ace Bailey this year in college. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Ace Bailey doesn't have more defensive potential than Conk and Nipple. He absolutely does. There is so much of a greater ceiling where if Ace was to really commit on defense and was to, like, lock in and be engaged all the time on defense, of course he would be better than Con on defense. I'm just telling you what the tape says. In college, the Con was a better defender than Ace Bailey was this year. And that's because he's always engaged. He always makes the right rotations. He's bumping cutters, he's tagging rollers. He's finding he's helping the helper. He's always available to his teammates. He always makes the right rotations. Then on the ball, physical strength gets really underrated. It just does. He is a super strong dude. He is 215, £220 already. It's hard to go through his chest. If he beats you to the spot, you aren't going through him. He has a low center of gravity and he is very physical. It is very similar to what you see with Desmond Bain. Desmond Bain's a little bit quicker than what Khan is, I think, but he's not as tall. And, you know, Bain is a tank, obviously. Khan is, like, very strong through his lower center of gravity. Holds his line really really well on drives and even if he does end up getting beaten, he ends up leading guys into help extremely well. He is very, very smart and intelligent. He processes the game at a high level. The off ball ability is a mover. I mean he's constantly relocating, he's constantly making sure that he is creating opportunities for his teammates to have space. He's constantly creating opportunities for himself to be able to have an angle for an easier kick out pass. He just thinks the game at such a high level. These are the kind of guys that I want to go into battle with as a, you know, if I was a coach, if I was on the team side evaluating like I would want Con Knippel in my team team at the end of the day is the reality.
- [76:22]
Host 2
The power element is interesting because it kind of reminds me of what we were talking about with Cooper earlier in terms of the versatility because I just see him being able to function in so many different kinds of ways offensively, decoy action to occupy help defenders, you know, third three man action where he's the back screener and like stack, pick and roll ghost screens. I, I actually think he's got like a little bit of potential to potentially be a switch beater in terms of like against size, like working closer to the basket with his like I think he's got enough touch from the mid range and enough size and, and just especially with his competitiveness to continue to build this out over time to be a guy that can be useful in just so many different ways offensively. And you're right, he's going to have to find the ability to succeed within a defensive scheme in the NBA level. But you know what he's going to do? He's going to come in, in day, day one. He's going to start communicating with the staff. He's going to start figuring out how do I find a way to be a good defender for you guys within that context? Number four, Vijay Edgecombe. I look at this as kind of, you know, I, I put down in my notes these guys are different kinds of guys, Khan and vj but they to me represent still a type of player that you need to have off of your stars, which is a guy who can triple shoot, pass and defend. Now VJ is not going to shoot the way that Khan does, but if you leave him open, he's going to knock it down. He's got, you know, a simple compact release. He gets good lift on it. He is like a guy that has a little bit of pop driving closeouts. He can attack in transition. It was so funny. The, the guy who's the player that you compared him to when we were talking.
- [77:54]
Host 1
Yeah, I've been saying that he's kind of like Gary Harris with a jet pack.
- [77:59]
Host 2
That's right.
- [77:59]
Host 1
Just way more athletic than Gary, but like not a great ball handler creator right now. Like if you blitz him in ball screens, it's a real issue, you know what I mean? Like it's a. He. He had problems with that. His left hand is not great in terms of his handle right now. He can struggle with that quite a bit and he doesn't really use his left as a finisher. He started doing that a little bit late in the year. But you know, there are some things that he has to work on for sure.
- [78:25]
Host 2
You, you. I point you pointed out when I brought this up that, that Aaron E. Smith is bigger. But Aaron Neesmith was the guy that I was thinking about when I was watching him in terms of like, like Aaron actually I think has a little bit more off the dribble pop than people think. But he's obviously not the guy you're going to run a bunch of action through. But I think there's value in their attacking closeouts and like just some of the higher level stuff. He. I watched a VJ Euro step today around this big from Texas Tech in the conference tournament where I was like, oh my God, he took like a left to right Euro through traffic where I was like, there's a level to like his ability to kind of like bring an upside to closeout attacking that I think is real. There's like a left shoulder fade that he hit roll spinning off of a guy. Like he's got real upside there, but he's just like almost guaranteed to be a guy who can defend a couple of different positions and a couple of different schemes, knock down wide open threes, run his lane in transition and be a weapon on both ends of the floor and be a guy who can play make out of advantages. And that to me again it manifests in the. You're changing the sliders a little bit compared to conversations. But it's like Khan can dribble, shoot pass and defend, VJ can dribble, shoot pass and defend to varying levels. And I just think that there's utility for those kinds of guys on the wing in the NBA. And so I just, I look at VJ is like, whoever gets him is just gonna get a rock solid role player for a long time.
- [79:45]
Host 1
Yeah, like I told you this before we went live like the Hardest ranking, the one that I went back and forth on most. Like, I think I flipped them probably a dozen times, if I'm being completely honest, was this like 3, 4, 5 ranking. And I ended up with Khan like pretty solidly at three for me. Like, I felt pretty good about it at the end. But Trey and VJ were the two that I struggled with so much because, man, they're just very different. Like, I, I can see the upside for Trey being higher. I think it probably is if I'm being honest. But you know, like, if Trey settles into like the Malik Beasley, you know, great high level shooter mold, right. And I think that's a real distinct potential outcome for him if he doesn't get a whole lot stronger and doesn't, you know, doesn't have a way to pressure the basket in the way that you have to, to be like a primary scorer in the NBA. I just think Vijay is probably going to be a more impactful guy. I think that there are more routes toward Vijay, like being a impactful player toward winning than there are for Trey. Even though I like really buy into Trey's outcomes as like a potential star bet. Because I think he's going to max out whatever he can as a scorer, right. But I wonder about if he maxes out being able to defend in the way that he's going to have to on the ball. I wonder if he maxes out the frame in the way he's going to have to. I do just believe though that he's going to be able to max out Trey. This is like the scoring ability in some way. But vj, you know, I say the idea of like Gary Harris with the jet pack and people like feel some type of way about it. I mean, Gary Harris was probably like a top 40 to 50 player in the NBA during his prime in Denver. Average 17, 3 and 3 and got consistent all defense votes like that. He was an awesome NBA basketball player for a long time. And if you told me I was getting a more athletic version of that guy, I'd be like, oh, wow. Like this, this is, this is actually a real dude. This is a real player that helps you win basketball games at a really high level. I think I'm just like a little bit lower on the oddball upside based off of what we've seen from D.J. to this point. Also, you know, I will bring up the. The big thing that worries me is, yes, you see the spectacular finishes, right? But 48.9% on his attempts in the half court at the rim, which Is really rough. And that goes all the way back like 45% as a junior in high school. 52 as a senior in high school. Has just never been a great finisher at the rim. Despite the athletic.
- [82:21]
Host 2
How much did you factor in Audacity? Like just him, like just trying crazy.
- [82:27]
Host 1
It does happen. I mean he does go for it, but I mean part of that is like decision making for me too. Right. Like, you know, hit the passes consistently. He got better at hitting passes consistently. I will say too. The other thing's the pull up shooting. He made 13 of 49 pull up attempts this year at Baylor. In total, has never been a great pull up shooter. You know, was 9 of 35 as a senior. Like think, I mean Jason, did you take more than 35 pull up attempts as a senior in high school when you played high school basketball?
- [83:00]
Host 2
I was a terrible high school basketball player. So I'm the wrong guy to ask but. But yeah, that's, that's pretty like 35.
- [83:07]
Host 1
For a guy that's going to go in the top top five of the draft in like 20 or so games probably that they have tracked on Synergy. It's a low number. You know what I mean? Like that, that I think the on.
- [83:19]
Host 2
Ball upside with VJ is very theoretical at this point.
- [83:22]
Host 1
It is, I agree. But I'm a fan. Like I think he's going to impact winning for a long time. Like if he goes number three to Philly, I kind of get it. Like he's a guy that will help you win basketball games.
- [83:35]
Host 2
And he makes some sense next to, to Tyrese.
- [83:38]
Host 1
I think so too. Yeah, it makes sense next to both tyrese and Jared McCain, I think.
- [83:44]
Host 2
So. What made me so excited about Trey Johnson was I see this guy that has so much natural scoring ability in terms of like kind of. It's like I always look at scoring separate from like, like any individual offensive skill. The big picture concept of scoring to me is a combination of like confidence. You've got to believe in what you're doing, creativity. There's a good amount of like you need to be like willing to not be so robotic and rigid if you're going to be a scorer. And then the third piece of it is obviously the work behind the scenes on the, on the shot making. But while all of the footwork and the, the tech, the technical part of it is there already, I think he's still just barely scratching the surface of like kind of learning how to make things a little bit easier for him. I, you know, I remember when I would watch like, Kevin Durant, you know, when he was, when he was younger and a little bit more aggressive, how, like, KD would have this, like, wonderful ability to set his man up for screens. And like, like, even though he knew he wasn't the fastest player on the floor, he'd be so judicious about his change of pace and physicality, like leaning on his man and then exploding out to the perimeter and getting him set up to so that he'd run into the screen. And I, I was looking at the, the Xavier game in particular for Trey, and I thought they just did a really good job of denying him the basketball and staying attached. And in that game, I thought like, like, for instance, Trey's pump fake right now is literally just like, he just goes like that. Like, there's no real, like, technical effort to sell the pump fake. And like, I feel like when he starts to slow down a little bit and realize that, like, when he paint changes his pace more and sells his fakes a little bit more, like, he. He's not getting even as many of like, the pump fake blow by stuff as he's capable of getting at this point, because he is. Teams are selling out on him because he is legitimately an awesome movement three point shooter and off the dribble. Three point shooter. And like, that really is the thing that separates him from Ace Bailey. I hate most of the shots that I saw Ace Bailey take because it literally felt like he was taking a shot based on what looked the coolest rather than what made sense in that moment.
- [86:08]
Host 1
Pure vibe space.
- [86:10]
Host 2
Yeah, exactly, exactly. And with Trey, like, he would take some bad shots, but you could kind of see what he was thinking. Like, you could see he's thinking like, like, like, if I get my separation here, this is a three, and if I hit this, this is a highly efficient shot. Like, but like, you could kind of just see with Trey, it's kind of like more of an organized chaos, whereas with Ace right now, it's just very much like a. It's. It's just chaos. And so with Trey, what I got me so excited about that as I'm watching him today, I'm like, oh, my God, he's already awesome. And he can still get so much better at kind of refining this skill. And I just still think that the ability to sprint into jump shots going left and right and to be able to hit jump shots off the dribble, going left and right off of different bits of footwork and separation moves is one of the most valuable things in the NBA. And I just think Trey's already awesome at it with so much room for improvement. I'm, I'm just, I was just a big fan of him when I was watching him.
- [87:02]
Host 1
Completely agree. I'm a big Trey Johnson fan as well. Just a real movement shooter from day one in the NBA and that like I would expect that Trey Johnson is first team all rookie next year because he's going to step in and just be immediately ready to shoot and score points from day one, like as an off ball player in the NBA. Like by the way you're pointing this out, Texas like did not do enough running him off of screens this year. They ran him off of screens like once a game, once or twice a game. That was it. Like he took under two shots per game off of screens this year. It's insane. You have like, like the best weapon in college basketball probably last year shooting off of screens. And instead of, you know, doing it the way that it makes sense, you just have him bring the ball up the court every time and then try and get to his shot that way. NBA teams are going to be so much more calculated than how they use Trey Johnson. He, he is going to average, I think. I mean, I don't know how aggressive I want to get here. He's definitely averaging double figures in the NBA next year. Like if you told me average like 16, 17 a game in the right spot next year as a rookie, I wouldn't be surprised just because like if he was the.
- [88:15]
Host 2
Where do you think he ends up?
- [88:16]
Host 1
Yeah, look, I've gotten anywhere from 3 to 7. Honestly. Like he feels like a player that has really, he's really impressed teams in pre draft workouts. I think they've gotten to know him a little bit better and they understand him a little bit better. His body language at Texas this year, like I think he'd even admit this. You know, I didn't ask him about it but like, you know, I've kind of understood it. Like, you know, his body language. Texas year like wasn't always fantastic. Let's go with. And I think that that didn't. I think some teams went into the pre draft process with one notion about Trey Johnson and then came away from like talking to him feeling totally differently about him in a really positive way. You know what I mean? Like just because, I mean, look, how much do we want to shit on Rodney Terry here? But like, like it was, it was bad. The Texas scheme was atrocious. Like there's. Their spacing was awful. He had no ability to get to where he wanted to go to. There was no intentionality in what they were running. It felt like it was. It was really, really rough. I felt like at Texas last year and you know, I think that smart basketball players, when things aren't going well, they can kind of feel that. And I think some are better at masking it than others. Let's go with. And I think that that was probably a frustration for Trey last year. I don't know that for a fact. Again, I haven't asked him about it, but, like, I do know that there are a number of NBA teams that felt one way about him and then met with him and they were like, oh, no. Like, this is a. This is different. This is different. Like, he's way. This is way more positive than what people thought or what people think, right? Like, he's not. He's not like a bad body language. Like, bad, you know, going to be an issue kid at all.
- [90:00]
Host 2
I think NBA structure is going to be massive for him, especially as a playmaker. Because I. It kind of. It kind of felt like to me, a lot of the playmaking issues stemmed from that lack of organization. If you put him in a situation where it's like, hey, we're running this play for you. This, you know, Chicago action coming out of the right corner, whatever it ends up being, create very simple reads for him and to where he understands. Like, hey, when they show on the screen, you're dumping it to the big every single time. And you see this, you. You do that. When you come off the screen and they pinch in at the nail. This is what you're looking to like get into the situations where he kind of has like these classic, like 1, 2 reads where it's like shoot or this or that and that's it. I think that's where he can actually be an effective playmaker. It is not the Ace Bailey. I caught the ball and now everyone else disappears and it's just me.
- [90:46]
Host 1
I'll say this with Trey too, like, early in the year, I thought that he was going to be like a pretty deficient passer. Honestly, he got so much better at passing throughout the year. It was a huge, huge growth for him at Texas, where I think that he did start to figure out the reads that are really high level where, like there are a lot of moments where he's coming off of an action like exactly like you're saying, like a corner Chicago action. He's taking a DHO driving into the lane and he'll jump past and like hit the dump off like immediately and just like understand what the read is. I was really worried early in the year that it was like a Cam Thomas vibe. It's nowhere near that. Like he has so much more like unselfishness and like understanding to his game than what I think that would, that would indicate.
- [91:31]
Host 2
You mentioned in your this is the last piece and then we'll get to Ace and then we'll get out of here. You mentioned in your draft guide him needing to get stronger, and I agree. That's where I kind of view him as being like a player that slows down a little bit, puts on some muscle mass, becomes a little bit more deliberate with the way he sets himself up for action, a little bit more deliberate with his fakes. But I feel pretty confident that he's going to be able to get the ball off at the NBA level. And you know, when I was watching the shots he's taken today, I'm like, these are shots that are going to work at the next level. These are things that he's going to be able to make and, and everything we're hearing about his work ethic is, is going to just continue to hammer that home.
- [92:08]
Host 1
So I am so excited for this conversation because I'm always really excited to hear from people who watch Ace Bailey for the first time and are like, what the fuck is this?
- [92:22]
Host 2
I Let me just use one simple example. There is a proven way for any player with a size advantage to be able to get a decent jump shot off out of the post on the left block. If you're a right handed player, you hit the drop step and right after you make contact you spin hard over that right shoulder and you turn around and you lift off of, you plant that left foot and you lift off of both legs and you're almost certainly going to have the separation you need. And it's up off of two feet, it's balanced. The right shoulder fade away is one of the most common shots that you'll see a big forward in the NBA take as a switch beater. I saw a half dozen today where he somehow turned that into some wild fucking one legged fade away where he like spun over his right shoulder and then took a step back into the one legged fadeaway. And I'm just like, like why, like why are you doing that? I don't understand yet.
- [93:18]
Host 1
It's like also kind of cool that he has the body control to be able to like do that and like string that together too. Like so you're, you're like a little Bit impressed, but then you're like, no, don't do that.
- [93:28]
Host 2
Yeah, it's. It's. It's a jarring experience because it's legitimately fun. It's fun to watch. And, like, And. And that's really where, like, I see the upside is undeniable. It's like, everything. I thought you did a wonderful job, as per usual, breaking it down in your draft guide. He's got these great tools, but then he. It doesn't, like, function like, he's a great athlete with great tools because of the fact that he's just kind of, like, out of his athletic stance most of the time, and he's just, like, in there. It. And then there's a legitimate, like, black hole type of. Of offensive feel for him where it's like, the ball ends up in his hands, and it's like, all right, you know, something's going up here, and there's just a little bit. I. I view him as a guy that needs an enormous amount of refining, but that the upside is really there. And so, like, he needs to go somewhere where he can be bad for a long time.
- [94:17]
Host 1
I kind of think so, too, and.
- [94:21]
Host 2
But, like, I think that's where he needs to go. I think if he goes anywhere else, I think it could go really poorly, really fast. I want to be clear. This is not Eminy Bates, where it's like, he's skin and bones and barely six eight, and, like, just doesn't have aces, Just doesn't have the athleticism. Aces much more physically prominent at the position. So he. There is real upside there, but I think he needs a reworking of several different kind of things in the way that he approaches the game. And I just view him as, like, a very big project.
- [94:51]
Host 1
Yeah, I completely agree, but the project is, like, the ceiling's very high if it works. The ceiling very high if it works. So, yeah, first and foremost, like, just plays very upright is what worries me. Does not play with much bend, and he doesn't access the athleticism he has. Like, you'll see him out in transition, and he'll rise and, like, throw down, like, all these crazy dunks, but he doesn't play through contact well because he's getting out leveraged by everybody on the court because he just doesn't play with a lot of bend. Right. Doesn't play with a lot of physical force right now. Like, very much a finesse player, despite the fact that he has, like, powerful, explosive athleticism, like, you know, in his legs. You know what I mean? Like, he has the ability to really rise up, but like, it doesn't play out that way in the half court because he loses the leverage game just about every single time. Like, I use the idea of pad level, quote unquote, like talking about pad level and football, right? Pad level matters in basketball to being able to out leverage guys really matters. He doesn't really do that. I mean, the shot selections simultaneously amazing because you just wonder how he came to that decision. And also like maddening and just insane. I don't really understand it in any way, shape or form. The mechanic. I mean, I'm fascinated to hear what you think of the shot mechanics. Like, I think the shot mechanics.
- [96:17]
Host 2
Every jumper looks different and like some of them are. Some of them are catapulty, some of them he's shooting up into the air. Sometimes the release is quick and compact. Sometimes it's drawn out like the, the there is. And this is one of the downsides of like. So let me, let me use Trey Johnson as an example here, Sam, because I think this is a really fascinating basketball concept for young players to work on. Tough shot making doesn't mean you're. You're taking really, really difficult jump shots. It almost always means you're doing something really difficult before the jump shot, and then you're taking your normal jump shot. There might be a slight fade, a slight drift, but more or less the energy transfer and the rise in fire should pretty closely mimic what you do in a catch and shoot situation. And that's what I get when I'm watching Trey. I'm watching a player who utilizes footwork and dribble combinations to get separation so that he can take Trey Johnson's jump shot every single time. Whereas with Ace, it almost feels like the, it almost feels like everything up to the tip of the release is different on a possession by possession basis. And I think that leads to streakiness. I, I think that having a consistent form that you lean on leads to more consistency. Whereas, like, for the, for the record, I think this is a big part of why LeBron has had so many changes in terms of like, his consistency as a jump shooter in his career and why he's been so streaky. LeBron tweaks his release every damn year, within the year, sometimes two or three times. Some it's like, oh, oh, it's 2015. We're watching LeBron. Wait, he's not taking a jump shot anymore. He's taking a set shot. Like, what's this about? Like, like you're just like. But that's the thing and LeBron. LeBron paid the price for that by being, you know, LeBron's a better jump shooter than he gets credit for, but he was somewhat inconsistent and streaky as a jump shooter in his career because he fucked with his form all the time. And I think there's a little bit of like, Ace, Ace needs to build his game around a, a jump shot and then the separation that leads to it, rather than. It almost feels like each jump, each move has its own jump shot, if that makes sense.
- [98:28]
Host 1
I completely agree with exactly what you're saying here. But the other piece of this though is that this all feeds into the idea for me that nothing that Ace does is easy on the basketball court. Like, Jason Tatum was a guy that got like kind of pigeonholed with us a little bit at Duke. He would still find like easy shots at the rim from time to time, right? And part of what's made Jason Tatum so spectacular in the NBA is that he finds easy shots at the rim from time to time. He will take guys into the post and use his footwork work to be able to like just beat guys to spots and then be able to get like a layup at the rim on a drop step or something, right? Like, he is really good at utilizing the mismatch nightmare idea of being a mismatch threat. Ace Bailey does not do that. And that's my main worry. So doesn't really get to the rim all that often. Takes under two shots at the rim per game, right? Because he's very high waisted and the handle is not very good. And he, he's like, the handle is very high because he's so high waisted. Like, I remember talking to a team that was playing Rutgers early in the year, they were like, yeah, like, what would you do to like slow down Ace Bailey? I'd be like, I would just send a dig every single time that he drives. I would send nail help every single time that he drives. And either A, you will force a turnover because you will get into his handle and it'll be a problem, or B, you will force a mid range jumper. And I'm good with that at the end of the day for Mace Bailey and, and he doesn't process it quickly enough to be able to make the same side kick out off of like the same side help, right? Like just send it every time, it'll be fine. And you look at the percentages that the rim like, what do you think Ace Bailey shot on layups this year, Jason?
- [100:07]
Host 2
I think, I think I Saw it today.
- [100:08]
Host 1
Wasn't he mid-40s, 42% on layups.
- [100:12]
Host 2
That's, that's.
- [100:13]
Host 1
He's 67 with a 7 foot wingspan and is like athletic. Like, he has real athleticism. That's insane that he shot that low. He shot like what Jeremiah Fear shot who's like one of the worst finishers in this draft class, right? Like, it's really, really wild. And then like all of this is before we get to the defense where, man, there, there are games where he's unbelievable. Like, I think I thought he was so good in the Alabama game on defense. Like, I thought he was amazing early in the season. I don't know if he's realized that there were a crazy number of scouts in or whatever, because there were. But like, he was awesome. He was super switchable. He was aggressive. He was engaged in help. Like he had like three blocks. I think he had like a seal or two. Like, he was really, really good in that game. And then like in the middle of Big Ten play, it was like, yeah, I'm just not going to attack this guy. Yeah, I'm not going to make this rotation. Maybe he's just like not seeing it. You know, teams really started to hammer him, realizing that, okay, he's, he's, if you run like an action at him, either he's just not going to like take the time to think through it or like not going to be focused enough to be able to think through it, or he's just not going to, you know, make the right read and you're going to be fine. So I worry about that piece of it for him too. On defense. I mean, look, like all of these things is like the ceiling is that he can be the second best player in this draft class. Like, if it all goes right. His, his ability to get to special jump shots off of step backs and pull ups and things like that. It's a genuinely elite skill. Like the creation of those jumpers is an incredible gift that he has, right? But there, it's just such a house of cards to me, man. Like, like I have ace at six. If I was on the team side, like, I, I would not be. Even if I had like seven or eight, I probably wouldn't be like banging the table for ace. Honestly, like, it's just not my kind of player at the end of the day. And I understand that he has real star upside. I understand that like all of these things can improve. I'll say this too. Like, you're probably not in the weeds on this, but like, the way he's handled his pre draft process has been completely bonkers and like batshit. The kid is like a really nice kid. He's like a, everything I've been told, like the intel on that side is like, really nice kid. Teammates really like him. Like, good kid. Don't take the pre draft process that his agents and representation are kind of sorting through right now and applying it to the kid is what I would tell people. Like, he's, he's not that, like, he's not a bad kid. It's just that there's like a lot to work through here and I do wonder if he's, you know, getting the bad, getting really bad advice on some things. Like there's a lot of, I have a lot of worries kind of across the board.
- [103:11]
Host 2
Yeah, my, I was gonna say something similar in terms of like, if I was running a team, I just am not sure that the gamble is the kind of thing that I'm trying to build around. In that sense, there's, you'd have to be in a specific type of situation. You'd have to be in a position as a franchise where there's quite literally no hope, where you feel like, oh, we are going to be bad for the next several years. And there's no, like, if I look at this and I'm looking at Philly, I'm like, okay, well they're trying to rebuild around Embiid. I, I, they're obviously not going to jump for something like that. Charlotte like finally got a little exciting and interesting towards, you know, at various points this year. Like, you know, Utah kind of already has a guy of, of that like, kind of shot shucking ilk in house already right now. Washington literally just had their most interesting end of the season in the last couple of years with some interesting young players. You don't want to mess with that. There's not really a team that screams off the surface. That makes a ton of sense, if you had to guess. I mean, my, my, as I'm looking at the lottery here, I look at like, like, is it a, is it like a Brooklyn who has nowhere to go?
- [104:20]
Host 1
I mean like just has a lot of, of like spots up for grabs. Like they have like five guys on the roster, you know what I mean? And they have all the cap space. Like, I would understand. Brooklyn, Washington, I think you can easily make a case for it. Washington is where I'm mocked right now. I think that it makes a lot of sense for them to just at least try it and see what it Looks like they do need like a wing shot creator. I love Bilal. Like, I think Bilal Cool Bali is going to be like a real winning basketball player for a long time because of how good he is on defense sense. And I think the shot will continue to come along. But, you know, I, I don't see Bilal as like a shot creator long term either. And if you told me that your wing duo long term can be Ace Bailey and Bilal and then you have like Keyshawn George and then you in the back court, you have Bub Carrington and AJ Johnson and you know, taking flyers on all of these guys, that seems pretty interesting to me. That feels like the right.
- [105:15]
Host 2
His length next to Alex makes. That makes some sense too. And just in terms of the overall wings.
- [105:20]
Host 1
Totally. Right. By the way, like, while we're talking here, Daniel Gafford is signing a three year, sixty million dollar contract extension with Dallas.
- [105:29]
Host 2
What? Why?
- [105:34]
Host 1
What?
- [105:35]
Host 2
Like, does that come with a restriction on their ability? Are they going to trade Derek?
- [105:39]
Host 1
That was my immediate reaction. Like, are they going to like, look to move lively for like a star, like, like wing or something? Like, are you gonna try and move lively for like Austin Reeves or something like that?
- [105:50]
Host 2
Like, yeah, you'd have to move lively for this to make any sense. Right. Because Gafford won't be tradable until after the season or I guess he'll be tradable at the deadline.
- [105:59]
Host 1
He'll be trainable at the deadline. Yeah, but like, that's an interesting one. It's not one that I.
- [106:06]
Host 2
So, okay, well, they're certainly gonna take him into camp now, so. Okay, so they're going to take Gafford into camp for sure. Cooper ad probably lively.
- [106:17]
Host 1
Right.
- [106:17]
Host 2
Unless they move him this summer.
- [106:18]
Host 1
Again, the only lively deal that makes sense to me is if you're doing lively for Reeves because, like, I can see a case for that both ways where it's like, okay, let's go get Lucas Big, you know, rim runner big. Let's go get, you know, if you're Dallas, let's go get a guy who can play on the ball this year and then shifts playing off the ball with Kyrie next year and can like help share those duties. Both of those guys are really good at playing off the ball again, you know, next to star level creators. That's been my favorite like fake trade on the market now for a while is lively for Reeves, but I, I.
- [106:54]
Host 2
Want to expand that trade to somehow include a second starter. I've, I've been having my eye on that as well. My one, my one hang up with trading Austin is I don't want to trade Austin unless I'm bringing back a ball handler because LeBron will retire. Or two high level starters. Meaning, like, if it's lively and like PJ doesn't make a ton of sense for the Lakers, but if they could somehow work out some sort of deal where they get another starting caliber two or three, like an athlete at the two or three that plays Austin's position. Because I just don't think it makes a bunch of sense for them to bring in Lively and then just to have a glaring hole at the top.
- [107:32]
Host 1
The funniest answer is obvious here. Send Max Christie back.
- [107:35]
Host 2
Bronnie James. Oh, Max. Yeah. See, this is what I'm saying. Yeah, give me Max. Give me Max and Derek. If we're talking. Now we're talking. Okay.
- [107:43]
Host 1
Yeah, like, look, this is all, this is all fake. Like we're all just like, you know, guessing here. But yeah, I mean, the gaffer360, that's a, that's a deal. That's something, man. That's not.
- [107:54]
Host 2
That's. Yeah. I'll say this though. Starting center in the NBA makes 20 million these days. Like, that's just like, it's, it's just, it's like if you're, if you're in the middle of the pack, like if you're between center number 11 and 20 in the NBA, you're making 25 million.
- [108:08]
Host 1
But isn't the whole idea here that if you're Dallas, like, you have Derek Lively who's making like 6 million for the next two years, and that that's like your ability to stay cheap for the next two years?
- [108:21]
Host 2
Yeah. How do you think they managed to leverage NICO into making that deal now?
- [108:26]
Host 1
I mean, like anybody's guess on Nico side, like, I, I don't, I don't have a great sense of that necessarily. I mean, he is rep by clutch. So like, there could be some like, discussion there with like AD and stuff like that. I mean, look, like, again, it's not that Gafford isn't worth this deal. I think he is worth this deal. If to be honest, like, I think he's probably right around a $20 million a year player. It's just that that's a. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me roster wise when you already have Derek Lively and like AD is gonna have to close some games at the five. Right. Like, I get that they don't want to play AD full time. At the 5. That makes sense to me, I guess. But like, he's gonna have to close some games at the five at the very least. So you're talking probably, I don't know, eight to 10 minutes a game of AD at the 5, at least. And then if you're signing gaffer to a 20 million dollar a year deal, you're expecting to play 24 minutes a game, probably 25 minutes a game. So that leaves 10 to 15 minutes a game for Derek Lively. And it's like, well, he's better than that. And neither Gaffer nor Lively can play the four. So what are we doing?
- [109:45]
Host 2
Derek is better at defending on switches by a considerable margin. I actually think he's a little better rim protector too. But I think Daniel's fine there. I, the, the main thing is like, I'm with you. Like Daniel's. I, I, I, I had to reconfigure my entire approach around the starting center market last summer when, when we saw Hartenstein get over 30, Gobert got over 30, or Hardenstein was just under 30, but like Claxton ended up getting like 27 or something like that. Like, and then I was like, oh, like if you're a starting center in the NBA, you're getting over 20 million. Like this is how this works. But it's like I thought the whole point of them in their predicament is don't you're you, you're supposed to be the one that doesn't have to pay Daniel like that. That's because of your predicament, because of the situation you're in. I do wonder if because Lively was banged up a little bit last year and because Lively was a little banged up and because he didn't play super well when he was available to end last year, maybe Nico's off of his scent or something like that. But if Nico's dumb enough to send Derek over to the Lakers, we would be happy to take him. I can tell you. I mean, look, I can tell you.
- [110:45]
Host 1
Better believe that Nico right now is probably fielding a number of calls about Derek Lively, wondering from NBA teams, like, hey, what's going on here? Like, what are we doing? What's happening? Yeah, let's, let's talk.
- [110:56]
Host 2
All the heads popping up, right?
- [110:58]
Host 1
Like the, like popping up over the fence, like, hey, hey, Derek, you out there? Like, what's going on? Absolutely. Call it. I mean, like the other funny thing about that is, by the way, I believe that Derek is also repped by Clutch.
- [111:14]
Host 2
I think you're right. So I'm not 100. Sure.
- [111:17]
Host 1
Yeah. I believe that Derek is also repped by Clutch, which means that, like, I'm. I'm interested to know what's going on. Maybe, like. Maybe this is, like, killing two birds with one stone. This is total speculation. Do not aggregate this. For the love of God. When I say this, and I'm, like, totally just, like, saying things and connecting dots here. I do not. I have not talked to anybody about this. Again, do not aggregate this. I say this multiple times. I wonder if they're looking at it like, okay, we can kill two birds with one stone here. Let's get Gafford paid, and then maybe we get Derek to play with LeBron or, like, play with, like, another guy like that.
- [111:57]
Host 2
Oh, like, Clutch is playing both sides of it. I see what you're saying. Yeah. Yeah. It'll be. I'll be. I'll be curious. I'm hoping. I'm hoping we get a very fascinating week. I hope my goal, given what this playoff run has been like, is like, for all the shit to hit the fan in the next, like, 10 days, and then. And then for it to just go radio silence the rest of the summer. That's. That's what I'm hoping for. But, Sam, dude, you've been way generous with your time, man. We're up over 100 an hour and 40 minutes. We got to NBA final stuff. We talked big picture draft. We talked about the top six picks. We talked Daniel Gafford's extension. So much good stuff today. Shout out your work before we get out of here. Let everybody know where they can find your guide and everything else. I will have the link to it underneath.
- [112:35]
Host 1
Yeah, go to the Athletic. Keep me employed over there. Really, really, you know, great place to work that I enjoy. So go subscribe to that beautiful website over at the New York Times, and you will get the draft guide. It's almost 200 words, 160,000 words of breakdowns on prospects. I really focused on the top guys, like, like, in depth in a big way this year. So you'll get, like, really heavy breakdowns on all of their tendencies and everything that they really like to do as basketball players. Go to the Game Theory podcast, where we're at, like, 50,000 subscribers over on YouTube now. We're just growing and doing so well over there. We appreciate you guys immensely for coming over there and rocking with the show there. Yeah, it's about all I got a lot. So go. Go to those two places.
- [113:26]
Host 2
It was good to see you, buddy. You've been very kind to us over the course of the last month with some NBA Finals coverage and this I, I was, I was proud of us because several of the things we discussed in our how does indie beat Oklahoma City thing kind of mission that we talked through, which I thought was fascinating. But it was good to see you, buddy. We'll chat soon on the phone. I have some news for you too. I'm moving to Denver, dude. We got all sorts of to talk about. We got to find some, we got to find some time to talk. But it was, it was good to see you and all of the listeners, thank you guys so much for supporting the show. We will be back on Wednesday Night Live during the first round of the NBA Draft. I will see you guys then. What's up guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting HOOPS tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate. Appreciate it.
- [114:18]
Host 1
The Volume why is a soap opera western like Yellowstone so wildly successful? The American west with Dan Flores is the latest show from the Meat Eater Podcast Network. So join me starting Tuesday, May 6, where we'll delve into stories of the west and come to understand how it helps inform the ways in which we experience the region today. Listen to the American west with Dan Flores on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts.
- [114:50]
Host 2
Or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Host 1
I know a lot of cops. They get asked all the time, have you ever had to shoot your gun? Sometimes the answer is yes. But there's a company dedicated to a future where the answer will always be no. This is absolutely season one Taser Incorporated. I get right back there and it's bad. Listen to Absolute Season 1 Taser incorporated on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The OGs of uncensored motherhood are back and badder than ever. I'm Erica.
- [115:26]
Host 2
And I'm Mila.
- [115:27]
Host 1
And we're the hosts of the Good Moms Bad Choices Podcast, brought to you by the Black Effect Podcast Network every Wednesday. Yeah, we're moms, but not your mommy. Historically, men talk too much and women have quietly listened. And all that stops here.
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Host 2
If you like witty women, then this is your try.
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Host 1
Listen to the Good Mom's Bad Choices Podcast every Wednesday on the Black Effect podcast network, the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast.
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Host 2
Or wherever you go to find your podcast. What up y' all. This your main man, Memphis Bleak, right here. Host the Rock Solid podcast. June is Black Music Month, so what better way to celebrate than listen? Listening to my exclusive conversation with my bro, Ja Rule.
- [116:04]
Host 1
The one thing they can't stop you or take away from you is knowledge. So whatever I went through while I was down in prison for two years through that process, learn, learn from.
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Host 2
Check out this exclusive episode with Ja Rule on Rock Solid. Open your free iHeartRadio app, search rock.
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Host 1
Solid, and listen now. This is an iHeart podcast.