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Hoops Tonight Host
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Colin Coward
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Hoops Tonight Host
All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Tuesday everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great week. Got a JPEG show for you guys. Today we're gonna go over five lessons I learned in this NBA season. Basketball lessons. Every year we take in more information. We learn about what works in the NBA. This is the episode that we do each season after the season where we kind of try to create a synopsis of all of that. We will be starting our draft coverage tomorrow. We're doing this season wrap up to buy myself some time to actually dig into the film. So so so much film to watch as we dig into the draft. Big time draft. One of the most consequential drafts of my lifetime and certainly in the time that I've been covering the NBA. We will start that coverage tomorrow, but today five lessons I learned from this NBA season. You guys know the joke before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. We have a goal to get to 150,000 subs. We're trying to get there by the end of summer league. You guys could help us a lot if you take a second to scroll down and hit that subscribe button if you're already subscribed. Like this video and sign up for post notes notifications. We're also going to get back to doing our weekly mailbag. So if you got if you want to get questions into our mailbag, drop them in the ch. In the comments underneath this video. Just write mailbag with a colon and then write your question. That helps me sort through them when I'm going through the comments and then we'll get to them in our mailbags at the end of each week. All right, let's talk some basketball. So number one, this will not Come as any surprise to you guys, as you've heard me talking throughout this playoff run, versatility is still the biggest key to success in the NBA playoffs. Can you neutralize a team's strength? Can you painfully hunt a team's weakness? Do you have a weakness that the other team can painfully hunt? There are so many examples in this playoff run of these dynamics, like neutralizing his strength. Remember the Orlando Detroit series where Detroit just had the ability to physically maul everyone and then they run into a team in Orlando that all the dudes are just like actually bigger and stronger than Detroit's players and then suddenly their physical advantage disappears. And frankly, if Franz Wagner doesn't get injured, Detroit's probably going home in the first round. The Denver Minnesota series just, oh, we have the one guy in the league who guards Nicola Jokic well in Rudy Gobert. Like that's a huge advantage to not completely neutralize the strength of the Denver Nuggets, but a partial the ability to partially neutralize that strength. I'd even argue that that was attacking a weakness in the sense that when Aaron Gordon went down, Denver's ability to protect the rim disappeared. Minnesota had the ability to just completely and relentlessly attack the rim against them. The New York San Antonio series. One of the strengths of San Antonio's defense is the ability to protect the basket. The Knicks, by virtue of their combination of shooting, especially at the five spot, gave them the ability to get to the rim more easily than the Thunder did. There was a big difference in both scoring volume and efficiency for the Knicks at the rim against San Antonio compared to the Thunder in the Western Conference finals in terms of attacking a team's weakness, like staying on the Finals. Like San Antonio's bully ball guards, we talked about this the the rim and how the Knicks scored at the rim more effectively against the spurs than the Thunder did. Let's flip that dynamic. The spurs were far more effective at the rim against the Thunder, who had Shet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein just more resistance at the rim. They were a better rim protection team. The spurs were more effective at the rim against the Thunder than they were against the Knicks, despite the fact that the only real rim protector on the team was Mitchell Robinson and he played a smaller role. But it was because throughout the series, the spurs guards were able to get past that initial layer of OKC's defense more easily than the Knicks were. Than they were against the Knicks. I should say because of the physical advantages they had in the perimeter in that series compared to the Knicks series that was a legitimate weakness that the spurs had in the Philly Boston series. Like, you don't have anybody who can even remotely guard Joel Embiid. You also don't have the ability to force Joe lmb to guard in space the way that the Knicks could. That was a breaking point. And we watched one of the most impressive teams from the regular season lose to a seven seed. There are just so many good teams now. It's more likely than not that at some point along the way, you'll run into a team that can attack your weakness or that can neutralize your strength. And now you're going home. And so building a team that is capable of shape shifting and playing multiple ways and taking different shapes defensively is key to being able to win in the NBA playoffs. The Knicks are such a great example because of the fact that like you look at the first round series and how much they used off ball action to take advantage of inattentive defenders on the Hawks front line to score. And then you look at the second round and it's like, actually, Joel Embiid just cannot guard us in pick and roll. We're spamming Brunson pick and rolls. You look at the third round and it's like Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are food in ISO. We're attacking them in ISO over and over again. Yeah, like at. At every single point in the postseason, they were able to take a different shape defensively. The same thing. Like they have just different types of perimeter defenders for different types of players. Having, you know, you know, I used to talk about this the same Bassini like, oh, ground coverage is what matters. Defensively, you want to be fast. And it's like, well, actually OKC is faster than New York. They were a better ground coverage team. That wasn't necessarily what worked best against San Antonio. That's not to say that ground coverage doesn't matter. It certainly does. I'm accentuating the versatility here. The ability to play different types of defense with different types of defenders is key. Versatility continues to be one of the most important parts of success in the NBA postseason. Which takes us to number two. Luck is a huge part of this. And it's why it's worth it to be patient when you're one of those teams in that like second tier of contenders. Injury, Luck. Injury. Luck continues to be one of the most important parts of the NBA postseason.
Jeff T from Club 520 Podcast
Right.
Hoops Tonight Host
Like we talked about Orlando losing Franz Wagner in the first round, Aaron Gordon going down in the first round, Luka Doncic not being able to play in this postseason in Austin, Reeves being kind of like an injured shell of himself along the way. Like AJ Mitchell in J Dub going down with injury. Darren Fox's ankle injury. Like the Knicks were the one team that survived whole by the time they made it to the the end of the line, that's generally how it goes. The Thunder were fully healthy when they reached the finish line last year. The Celtics, they obviously had issues with Chris Ops Porzingis, but he was able to come in and win them a Finals game. You need to have injury luck. We talked about this in yesterday's show, but you need all your players to be in rhythm at the same time. You need everybody in their spectrum of possible performance to be in the high end. You need to catch a heater as a team and there is certainly a luck factor there. Landry shaman at one point made 23 out of 33 three point attempts. There is certainly a a team connectivity and rhythm that you have to catch. Which by the way is is is connected to the injury part of it.
Colin Coward
3.
Hoops Tonight Host
You need favorable matchups for you. We talked all postseason like it's important that the Knicks face the spurs in the Finals. It's their best chance to win the title. There are various examples of that throughout the recent NBA history where it's like this team seems to play well against this particular team. Minnesota, Denver is a great example of it. Unfavorable matchups for your opponents. Were the Celtics the best team in the East? No, I said that before the postseason. I was wrong. And it's not even just about the Sixer series. I just thought the Knicks were more impressive by far in the entire playoff run than the Celtics were. But also Boston caught an unfavorable opponent in the first round against Philly and Tatum broke down injuries. Right. There's a version of that postseason where the Celtics end up facing the Knicks and if they do, it's a tougher opponent than anyone they played in the East. That doesn't I In retrospect, I think the Knicks would have won anyway, but it certainly helped that one of the tougher opponents they could have faced in the Eastern Conference went down because of injuries. In a bad matchup in the first round, you have to have luck along the way in the form of matchups as well. This is why I think if you're in that second tier of contenders, it's worth being patient with your core. I talked about this with the Lakers. Like I just still think after watching this postseason run that if you run into a playoff series and Luka's 100% healthy and Austin Reaves is 100% healthy and LeBron James is 100% healthy. And they make one or two savvy moves this summer for like a decent starting center or a decent starting small forward and a depth piece that they could absolutely strike that exact balance that we're talking about good injury luck, players all being in rhythm at the same time, favorable matchups for you, unfavorable matchups for your opponent and you can find a way to sneak through. I'm using the Lakers as an example, but I mean that for that entire second tier, whether it's Minnesota, whether it's Houston next year when they get Fred Van Vliet back and they make some other move on the margins, whether it's Boston, whoever it ends up being, the, the teams in that tier. I feel like after this postseason run the Knicks demonstrated that you're actually closer than it looks. You don't have to necessarily be the most talented team in the NBA to win the title. Even just sticking to the Lakers example, like Cat and Jalen Brunson were repeatedly fairly panned as guys that can't guard and that it was a flawed construct for a team. Everyone's saying the same things about Luka Doncic and Austin Reeves. I think that that would be foolish to pretend as though those guys cannot play at a championship level if they're surrounded by the right group of guys and continuity plays a role and they catch that fancy rhythm that we're talking about and they get some injury luck and they face the right types of opponents along the way. Luck is a huge part of winning the title and it always has been. You look at Denver, they got, if you look at, excuse me, Oklahoma City last year, they got lucky with injuries to Tyrese Haliburton and injuries to Aaron Gordon. That is a huge part of winning the title. Today's show is brought to you by presenting sponsor Hard Rock Bet Florida Sportsbook. 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Call 1833 playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it in Arizona, Ohio and Virginia, call 1-800-myreset gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey or Tennessee. I'm excited to announce our partnership with CeraVe. Hydrate your skin up to 10 layers deep from a.m. to p.m. with CeraVe facial moisturizing lotion. I've been looking for a way to incorporate sun protection in my daily routine and the AM50 facial moisturizing lotion from CeraVe is the perfect way to to do that. Every morning I just take a little bit put it on my face, then I'm protected. It moisturizes throughout the day and helps strengthen the skin barrier in one use provides 24 hour hydration. Then at the end of the day, the PM Facial Moisturizing Lotion moisturizes throughout the night and helps repair the skin barrier in one hour. It contains three essential ceramides and MVE delivery technology to help restore the skin barrier and lock in moisture. Developed with dermatologists fragrance free, paraben free and it won't clog pores. CeraVe is the number one dermatologist recommended facial moisturizer brand and it offers a Range of facial moisturizers for all skin types. Find yours.
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Jeff T from Club 520 Podcast
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Hoops Tonight Host
Technology built to take your game up a notch@dell.com XPS. Number three. Reliable offense at the end of close games is still the most valuable individual basketball trait. To be clear, this doesn't mean that Wemby's not capable of being the best player in the world because he obviously struggles with this individual trait. It's all very complicated. And like, if you want to say like, okay, these things are weighted. Like if you put like overall defensive impact and like off ball play, finishing talent, playmaking talent, scoring talent, all these different things and you change, you kind of like weight them differently. And I'm saying like, okay, half court surgery at the end of the game is weighted higher. You could still be great enough in these other areas to overcome that. I just think if I had to synthesize what I thought the most valuable individual basketball trait was, it would be that ability to run reliable offense at the end of a close game. And that has just repeatedly shown through. Why? Because what ends up happening is at the end of these series, at the end of these playoff runs, everyone's really good. The games are close. Yes, we've seen examples of blowouts that have happened over the course of the postseason. It's certainly part of the deal. But even within that context, every year it seems to come down to there's a pivotal game somewhere in that series. And having a guy that you trust at the end of those games is what separates. And it was Jaylen Brunson this year. It was Shay Gilus Alexander last year. Like, the Celtics are a little bit more complicated. But guess what? The guy who ended up hitting the most clutch shots for them was Jaylen Brown. It was a huge part of why he ended up winning Finals MVP and Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Look at Yic and Murray in the 2023 season, Steph Curry in the 2022 season. Like, frankly, like Chris Middleton in the 2021 series. Remember how many clutch shots he hit in that playoff run? Like, you have to have guys that can reliably run stuff at the end of games and get good shots. That ended up being the biggest weakness for that San Antonio spurs team. Again, it's not the.
Jeff T from Club 520 Podcast
The.
Hoops Tonight Host
The end all be all. I would argue Jalen Brunson is literally number one in the league at this specific thing. Reliable offense just at the end of close games. And I don't think Jalen Brunson's a top five player in the NBA. So it's not the end all be all, but it is the most valuable individual trait. And to that point, the Knicks don't win the title without Jalen Brunson. Jalen doesn't really impact winning outside of that individual town. Like I would argue in this final series, his struggles as an efficient scorer throughout games was something that was a problem. But at the end of games, he just repeatedly came through. And I still think it is the most valuable individual trait. And when we're talking about basketball players, Wemby's kind of an outlier because he's so impactful defensively. But for most of the other stars in the league, like, that is why, for instance, I have a Giannis typically behind guys like Shay Gil. Just Alexander, Luka Doncic or Nikola Jokic. I do think that, that having that ability to be a reliable offensive option at the end of games is just the most valuable. Individual basketball trait number four, aggregate ball handling, playmaking and finishing talent is a must in these settings. One of the things that I think is really fascinating is if you, if you dig into individual scoring numbers in the postseason. So just literally points per game. If you look at points per game in the playoffs, guys typically aren't hitting the same types of numbers that they did in the regular season. Jalen Brunson was our leading scorer in the postseason, 28.4 points per game. Kate Cunningham 28, Shea 28. Paolo 26. Dylan Brooks 26. That was a little bit of a strange outlier there. But the point is, is like guys aren't hitting the super high scoring totals that they typically hit. We had a 34 point per game score in the regular season. Luka Doncic shake elders, Alexander average 31 points per game. We have high scoring totals in the regular season that seem to go away when we get into the postseason. And a big part of that stems from the way these teams guard each other. What ends up happening is there is an intentional effort to get the ball out of your star's hands. We're funneling towards one side or loading up that side. We're trying to force you to play into a specific sequence where we're comfortable rotating out of it. And it turns into this dynamic where it's just extremely difficult for the on ball player to be an efficient, high volume score. What that does is it creates an emphasis on the ability of your teammates to capitalize on that attention. And generally speaking, it's an incremental thing. It's not. Jalen Brunson drives into the gap, throws one skip pass wide open, three, rinse, repeat. That's not how it goes. It's typically this guy drives and then that guy drives and then this guy drives and then that guy drives. And maybe not that many in the same possession, but it's this incremental, what we called stacking drives in our in the postseason, this incremental breaking down of the defense that requires multiple guys on the floor that can put the ball on the floor and make a play with it, but then also the finishing talent, like sometimes the best shot you can get on a possession is a contested mid range jump shot. And if your star is the only guy that can do that, that's a problem. But if there's a sequence that ended with the Knicks with Mikhail Bridges having to Take a tough pull up mid Ranger, he could make it. If there was a sequence that required OG Ananobi to take a tough pull up mid Ranger, he could make it. If Carl Anthony Towns had to put the ball on the floor and take some sort of tough ISO shot driving a closeout, he could make it. There was a ton of aggregate ball handling, playmaking and play finishing talent on the Knicks. I thought that was what got the Oklahoma City Thunder beat. And it's something that, I mean, I talked about this in the Pacer series. It was a big part of why they struggled last year. Two years ago the, the 2025 season, even when they won the title, they got, they needed injury luck to barely escape two seven game series. And a big part of that was they had three dudes who could credibly put the ball on the floor. And that becomes a, that becomes a shortcoming when you run. I would, I would argue in that particular season there was actually only 2. It was J Dub and Shea. But this year when they were healthy, three because you had AJ Mitchell to the mix, J Dub and AJ Mitchell get hurt and now it's like you're just below the mandatory minimum. There were crazy stats this year. They were basically a 500 team when Shea was by himself. If just one of those two guys were available, they were like something crazy like 52 and 10. I don't remember the exact number off the top of my head, but like that. You need to have a bunch of guys on the floor that can put the ball on the floor and make plays. When you're playing great defenses, one guy just isn't enough anymore with how sophisticated these defenses have become. It's something to keep in mind and it's something that makes me more optimistic about some of these teams that have a lot of aggregate ball handling talent. The Knicks are a great example. It's, it's a big part of why. Like take for example the San Antonio Spurs. One of the reasons why I believe in them in the long term is there's a version of this story where two, three years from now, Harper and Castle are more polished. And it's like you just got a bunch of dudes on the floor that can dribble and make plays. It's why the Lakers are a team that I think have more viability than people think moving forward. It's like if you have LeBron Austin and Luca on the floor together, they can incrementally break down a defense. Number five. Yes, a team can play better defensively than their Personnel would lead you to believe they can. But if you're not playing defense in the regular season, you're not winning the title. You're probably not even going to make it very far. When you dig back through recent NBA history, like, there are exceptions. There was a Cavs team that made the conference finals this year, right. And that was complicated. They really struggled in the first round against Toronto, and then they really struggled against a young Detroit Pistons team in the second round, and then they got their ass beat when they got to a real team in the conference finals in the New York Knicks. Right. But that was a team that was not a top 10 defense that made it to the conference finals. All three of the other teams this year, Knicks seventh in defense, spurs and Thunder, both, I think they were both top two or top three defenses this year. You look at last year, it's like, yeah, Indiana was a mediocre regular season defense, but post, post all star break, they were like seventh in the league in defensive rating. They did turn into a great defense in the regular season when they got hot over the second half of the year. Obviously Oklahoma City elite defense, obviously Minnesota elite defense. The, ironically, that Knicks team that lost last year in the postseason, not very good defensively. Right. Like, there is a. There is a exception to every rule, generally speaking. And Denver in 2020, 23 is the best example. Right. Like, there was never really any extended stretch where they were great defensively in the regular season, but they were also this profoundly great offensive team and they were kind of operating in a gap in league history where there wasn't a truly great team that they had to go against. And they have since struggled. And it's their defense that's been their fail point time, time and time again when they get into the postseason. The point being, when we're evaluating contenders next year, unless they're a transcendently great offense, they're probably not winning the title if they're not in the top 10 in defensive rating. And it's just something that we should keep in mind when we're evaluating teams. I've talked about this a lot over the course of the years, but to me, defensive rating is as much an indicator of how much a team is bought in in the regular season. Just to like playing hard and building good habits and preparing for the postseason. It's just, it's just as much of an indicator of that as it is about defense in a vacuum. And to me, I do think that there's a lot of statistical evidence, especially in recent NBA history, but even in the long term that you have to be a great regular season defense if you're going to make a deep playoff run or threaten to win the title. All right guys, that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show again. We will be back tomorrow starting our draft coverage. I will see you guys then.
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This episode is a season wrap-up, focusing on the top five lessons learned from the 2025-26 NBA season. With draft coverage looming, the host synthesizes key basketball and team-building insights drawn from the year’s regular season and playoff runs. The tone is analytical yet conversational, filled with practical examples from current NBA storylines to help listeners understand the big themes shaping championship contention in the modern league.
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[09:56–15:30]
[19:19–21:38]
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For listeners: This episode is an insightful check-in on the biggest modern NBA truths—essential for fans and analysts looking ahead to next season and the years to come.