← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Hoops Tonight - EVERY WAY Pacers should beat Thunder in NBA Finals w/ Sam Vecenie
01:09:05
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Lester Holt
This is an iHeart podcast.
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Sam Vicini
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Lester Holt
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Lester Holt
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Sam Vicini
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Tom Brokaw
The NBC Nightly News.
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Lester Holt
Legacy isn't handed down or NBC News.
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Tom Brokaw
I'm Tom Brokaw. We hope to see you back here.
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Lester Holt
I'm Lester Holt.
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Sam Vicini
It's carried forward.
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Lester Holt
Tom Yamaz is there for us. Firefighters are still working around the clock. As the world changes, we look for what endures. We are coming on the air with breaking news. Right now we look for a constant and from one era to the next, trust is the anchor for NBC Nightly News. I'm Tom Yamas. A new chapter begins NBC Nightly News with Tom Yamas evenings on NBC. Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide and every.
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Lester Holt
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Sam Vicini
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Tom Brokaw
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Lester Holt
All right.
- [04:20]
Sam Vicini
Welcome to Hoops tonight here at the Volume. Happy Tuesday everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great start to your week. Well, my friend, my good friend Sam Vicini is coming on the show and we have a very fun kind of format for today and it's kind of unusual under the circumstances. The Thunder are a massive favorite to win the NBA Finals. They are currently minus 700. And so under those circumstances we, we talked about and we, we, we came to the conclusion that it would be a fun exercise to pretend that Sam and I are the coaches of the Indiana Pacers and we are attempting to come up with a game plan that might give us the best chance to win this particular series. Sam, before we even get started, how are you doing, man? We haven't talked in a long time. It's been a very, very busy few months. But it's so nice to have you back on the show.
- [05:11]
Lester Holt
It's great to be here. It's busy. I finally just finished the draft guide, which means I'm, like, up for air now. I finally can, you know, relax a little bit. On top of, you know, all of the crazy recording that Bryce and I have done. Where we're going live every other night for the playoffs is the schedule we've done in the playoffs. So it's good to be up for air and it's good to chat with you again. Like, I feel terrible. Like, we haven't even caught up on the phone because I've just been like, literally in front of my computer. This is the time of year where I put on like 8 pounds or 9 pounds just because I have to watch so much tape, like, to stay above water on both. I finally get to go to the gym after we're done with this. It's going to be great.
- [05:54]
Sam Vicini
Yeah, I was going to say I stopped playing as much basketball for a while there in, like, April and May, and, like, I was starting to. To not play as well. I was starting to get a little down on myself. I was like, I need. I need to get some of this routine back in motion. And thankfully in the Finals we space out a little bit. So before we get into our exercise, I couldn't help but think, after the finals were set, about a conversation you and I had on this show right after the NBA Finals last year. We discussed this. I asked you what your biggest lesson you learned from the playoffs was. And we both had, like, similar answers that were like, in different kind of like they were more or less meaning the same thing. But the answer you came up with was ground coverage and essentially having to do with speed and the ability to cover ground in rotation because of the idea that in order to do anything to make a star uncomfortable, you have to do a certain amount of aggressive loading up. And that inherently puts you into these rotation situations. And then there's also just the reality of how much of the game is being played in transition. I kind of became obsessed around the idea of perimeter speed. This was a concept that I was hitting on a lot around the same time. And it more or less means the same thing. But I can't help but notice that we have these two teams that are not particularly big, but that have a depth of perimeter speed and the ability to cover ground in rotation that vastly supersedes some of the other teams that we've seen around the league. And so I. My first question for you is just what have you really learned from this particular postseason run with Indiana in Oklahoma City ending up in the Finals. Does it legitimize anything about your big picture basketball worldview?
- [07:42]
Lester Holt
Yeah, I think that that is a really good point in terms of the ground coverage defensively. And look, I've been obsessed with this for a couple of years now, for sure. I think I would add to it and just say that I think every team needs a five out look at the very least. Like it might not be your primary designation, but you need to at least have the look to be able to go five out at all times. Otherwise it's just really hard to be able to survive in the NBA currently because you need different kinds of adjustments that you need to be able to make depending on the situation. You know, against the Lakers, Minnesota really thrived by loading up and being able to play as big as possible. But you know, in other situations they certainly needed to be able to go five out and be able to play multiple different offensive looks more than anything. So being able to go five out would be what I would add at any point. Even if it's not your primary look, I, I would hope that it's your primary look, to be frank, but I think you can make it work without it being your primary look look.
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Sam Vicini
The other thing that kind of stood out to me was just depth. Jackson and I were talking on playback the other night, just this, you know, there's all this low hanging fruit in basketball in terms of things like picking up full court to make people uncomfortable, in terms of like being able to play an incredibly hellacious pace, in terms of really having like a, an overall like expectation that everyone in your lineup is allowed to be aggressive, that everyone in your lineup is allowed to turn the corner and look to score. And I think that there's a reality that you need depth in order to do that. And I think what stood out to me as like a counterexample was the Knicks with Tom Thibodeau. Yeah, where all year long he's emphasizing heavy minutes for starters under the guise of conditioning. But all year long those guys were not sharp on the details in large part because they had to play such heavy minute loads. And so I'm not saying it's the end all be all, because I do think it's possible for you to have success in the NBA without a ton of depth, especially if you've got like six rock solid players. The Celtics, famously last year, they're like a pretty tight eight man rotation and towards the end they were, you know, leaning pretty heavily on their top six guys. But I, I think there's some reality to the fact that you can exploit more of that low hanging fruit by having a good 10, 11 man rotation of guys that can at least succeed within your scheme on both ends of the floor.
- [10:09]
Lester Holt
Well, the other way to exploit that low hanging fruit, I'm glad you brought up the low hanging fruit idea. Is something that both Indiana and the Thunder honestly do maybe better than anybody. And that's like spurtability, right? The ability to just go on these crazy runs and create points off of turnovers immediately. I believe that Indiana and the Thunder right now are currently first and second in the playoffs in points per game off of turnovers. Right. And you look at the way that this series is going to, you know, flow. In my opinion, it's going to be based on the idea of the turnover battle because nobody does a better job of forcing turnovers than Oklahoma City and arguably nobody does a better job of reducing turnovers than Indiana, right? So like, that battle to me is going to be the key to this series. But Indiana, I think is a really underrated team in terms of forcing points off of turnovers just because while they don't like force an insane number of them, they're always lethal in how they execute off of them. They are so intentional in the way that they go about finding mismatches. If you have anything to exploit, they are incredible at finding different cross matches in transition to be able to attack. That's just the reality of what they do, is because they have Halliburton and Nemhard, both of whom have grown up playing in these uptempo schemes as point guards, right? They have this incredible ability to always find the cross match. Both of those guys are really sharp at knowing exactly where the advantage is. Gonzaga played at one of the fastest tempos in the league or in the country under Andrew Nemhard, right? Tyrese Halliburton's been playing this way for years, right? He just knows how to handle it. Having multiple ball handlers out there who can all shoot, who can all make decisions at the end of the day, like, what this comes down to for me on some level is A, the ground coverage and B, just decision making in general. The ability to process the court like basketball on the court at such a high level is so incredibly important. It's why we've seen Alex Caruso just, you know, elevate his game even further in the playoffs this year. It's why we see guys like Chet Holmgren at the center position be able to, you know, make decisions faster than other centers, in my opinion, play such a critical role for them. Isaiah Hartenstein is a very good decision maker for a big. For Oklahoma City. On the other side, I would argue that Miles Turner is just so well drilled within that scheme at this point. Pascal Siakam is so problematic in terms of creating mismatches, but he also makes good decisions as well in terms of when to attack those mismatches. The ability to process basketball is just absolutely critical to me. It is the number one thing to me that these two teams, particularly beyond not really having, like, a weak link on the court to really attack, that's what these two teams do better than anybody, in my opinion.
- [12:58]
Sam Vicini
Well, and with the way they play defense, they're gearing everything around rushing you and getting you to make mistakes as decision makers. And like, we were blown away when we would watch film from the Knicks series, how often they would have, like, really poor spacing where there'd be nobody above the break for some reason, which was the number one culprit of their transition defense issues. And then they'd have, like, Mitchell Robinson in one dunker spot and Og Anunoby in the other dunker spot, and Cat just set a ball screen for Brunson, and for some reason, he's rolling like, you're like, what the fuck are you guys doing? Like, this is. There's so many, like, simple things like that where it's like when you watch the Celtics when they were at their best, and I actually think the Thunder are an underrated, kind of, like, spacing, relocating team. They do. They just kind of whirl around off the ball really well. But, like, they're. They're just so much sharper with the little decisions about where they relocate to, where they space to, where they cut from, like, how, you know, one of the reasons why they're such good transition defenses is their ability to kind of make sure they always have their floor balance set up.
- [14:00]
Lester Holt
Well, speaking to that point, like, I saw, you know, your volume colleague Jeff Teague bring up that, like, when he played for Tibbs, like, Tibbs isn't, you know, wildly intentional about these things, right? Like, he just, like, kind of says go and then just yells damn a whole lot, right? Like, the intentionality is really critical to me, like, having intentional spacing. And that's why, like, to me, I kind of understand, like, even though the Knicks just went to the conference finals, if they want to move on from Tibs, like, I'm not going to sit here and complain. I thought he coached an incredibly poor series against the Indiana Pacers, just both in terms of the lineups he decided to utilize, going two bigs against that transition attack. And then additionally, the intentionality of the spacing just feels totally wrong all the time to me with them. Not. Not all the time, but too often, let's go with. For a team that is as talented as they are. So when I look at these two teams, I think that what stands out, you know, above what I've said so far is the coaching. These two coaches are two of the top five coaches in the league. And I actually wonder, I think for a while we were at a point where there were like five really elite coaches, right? Like, guys that I thought really moved the needle for you. And then I thought there were like five or six, like not great coaches that moved the needle negatively. And then everybody else is kind of in the middle, right? I actually wonder if in this new era of basketball where intentionality in regard to spacing, in terms of tempo, in terms of rotations, in terms of making sure you don't have like a weak link on the court regularly, I think we might be at a point now where coaching is actually starting to become more important even than what we had been thinking of it as being previously. Because that intentionality and spacing and rotational alignment is so critical now in the biggest moments in the playoffs.
- [16:00]
Sam Vicini
No, I totally agree. Like, that this low hanging fruit stuff, it's not based on like, just easy, easily attainable points that everyone in the league has known about for decades. It's a lot about how the game has changed. Like, the Boston was able to toe the line of being an elite offensive rebounding team and an elite transition defense. Why? Because they utilize these corner crashes towards the elbows. Because they understood this is where the ball most frequently comes off of the rim. And it also is kind of like a Runway for our transition defense. The top two guys get back. These guys crashing out of the corners can kind of whirl up the floor after they make that crash. And there's just like this kind of understanding that, like, okay, every time we play in transition, we're 20% more efficient. So why would we not hunt that at every single opportunity that we have? You mentioned the cross matches, like literally this of that.
- [16:54]
Lester Holt
Jason, defensively as well, with your spacing, the Knicks constantly had like four or five guys below the foul line chasing offensive rebounds against the Pacers as well. So, like, that it's not just spacing from an offensive perspective. It is actually kind of spacing from A defensive perspective too in making sure that you're able to stop the low hanging fruit on the other end too.
- [17:20]
Sam Vicini
It's. Yeah, it's like we, we've just, we've been talking so much about the things that they've been taking advantage of. To your point, both the Pacers and the Thunder are great at not turning the ball over. Yes, both. This is, these are all like readily attainable things. And so like this is one of the things that us Laker fans were bitching and moaning about non stop with respect to jj Redick versus Darvin Ham is like JJ did not do a good job in this postseason run and he's got obviously playoff game planning and adjustments to figure out at a higher level than what he figured what he had this year. And but like JJ at the very least came in from day one and was like we're gonna harp on these details and they suddenly were a better team. And like Shay Gilchrist Alexander in his MVP speech mentioning how Dagnaut was just a pain in the ass. Like that stuff is all incredibly important to maximizing especially when the margins are smaller too. Like this isn't the, this isn't what it was 10 years ago where the Cavs and the warriors are so clearly better than everyone that everyone else is just kind of fighting for second place in their conference. Like this is every, if you look at these, the playoff field this year kind of felt like anybody could get it done. And here we are, we're with Indiana and Oklahoma City. And Oklahoma City was this close to losing in the second round. Like these are very, very tight margins by the way. Oklahoma City was this close to losing in the second round in a series where they had 27 points per game off of turnovers. So like, like you tell, you tell me whether or not low hanging fruit matters in the NBA. But let's get, let's get to this series. And so you and I are the coaching staff. We are trying to figure out who's the lead assistant in Indiana right now. Do you know off the top of your head?
- [18:49]
Lester Holt
I think they do different things for different ends of the court. Like Jenny boost coordinators I know does the defensive side can't remember who does the offensive side. I feel like Rick does a good amount of the offensive side, but I can't remember who they're like coordinator is on that end.
- [19:03]
Sam Vicini
Gotcha. So we're sitting down in our coaches meeting. We're focusing on the offensive end of the floor. I wrote down a couple ideas and I'm going To just give one of them to you right now. We'll just kind of go from there. So I have a feeling that this series ends with Chad at the five. There's some pretty strong data from the regular season that Isaiah Hartenstein struggles to guard this team. Not hard to figure out why the traditional bigs that are not like apex athletes like Mitchell Robinson are going to struggle to a certain extent in this type of whirling dervish type of offense. So I think it's going to be a lot of chat at the 5 alongside 4 perimeter type of players. So I think it's vitally important for the Pacers to force Chet to guard on the perimeter as much as possible. So my next question, my first pitch to you is this, should Indiana consider going small in this series?
- [19:58]
Lester Holt
In what respect? So are we talking like Toppin and Pascal? Are we talking, you know, like they go four perimeter guys and like N. Smith at the four small? Like how small?
- [20:13]
Sam Vicini
I would say like a good amount of Siakam and Toppin. And then for the record, this is not, this is not like we start the game this way. This is like does the game tilt towards we are because we haven't even got to the other end of the floor. They did struggle a little bit in ball screens, especially with Hartenstein getting behind. And I think that's gonna happen a lot with Chad as well. So like my, my, my idea behind the Pacers going small is the true switch ability to be able to switch ball screens and prevent the easy kind of reads that Indiana or that Oklahoma City can make in in pick and roll. But also the ability to consistently force chat to guard on the perimeter. I think that Indiana is going to be able to get a certain amount of like pick and pop type of stuff with Miles Turner. But I think that OKC is going to live with chasing him off with just a late closeout. And so what I'm wondering is, could you actually force Chet to guard in more action and force him to guard on the perimeter more by going small, especially with a team that's not particularly big. In any case, AI is redefining what's possible for your business. Are you up to the challenge? Microsoft is helping leaders like you get AI ready faster with unified data and simplified platform management, unlocking up to 150% improved output across industries. Leaders are turning to Microsoft's AI tools and guidance to rise to the challenge. For the NBA, that means using AI powered insights to deliver more personalized fan experience. For BMW, it means innovating their development process safely and securely. And for Lego House, it means creating new interactive experiences for people to explore. With Microsoft's trustworthy AI tools and guidance, you can drive greater impact. Business leaders Microsoft surveyed saw an average of 3.3 times ROI per $1 invested in generative AI. Whatever challenge comes next, let Microsoft help keep pushing you forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com challengers hi Zoe Saldana. Welcome to T Mobile.
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Lester Holt
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Lester Holt
Not right now.
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Lester Holt
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I don't really have much in my purse. Oh, let's see.
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Sam Vicini
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Lester Holt
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Lester Holt
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Sam Vicini
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Lester Holt
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Tom Brokaw
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- [25:11]
Lester Holt
So I don't mind this idea. In general, the Pacers have really taken advantage of Biggs in the playoffs. This, you know, entire run from Mitchell Robinson to like Jared Allen never being able to figure out that Tyrese Halliburton only goes right, right. Like they have really, really struggled or they've really taken advantage of that and other teams have struggled to deal with them. I don't. So like almost the way I'm gonna think of this is like, you know, you, you bring up this idea and like I'm trying to think of like it from Oklahoma City's perspective because so much of this is a chess game, right? You're trying to figure out what the counters are going to be ahead of the counters, right? So if you go small, right, do you think that a Siakam based five unit is going to be capable of of taking advantage of Hartenstein enough is my question. Because if I'm the Thunder at that point, I'm just crashing Hartenstein to the glass on the offensive end fairly regularly. Especially with how I'm assuming you're gonna have to play defensively where you have to play a little bit more like shell coverages as opposed to like getting aggressive and trying to force turnovers. Because Oklahoma City doesn't really do that. So that would create like potentially more situations where Hartenstein might be able to crash the offensive glass a little bit easier. I do agree with your point that like the Hartenstein minutes will probably only be like 20 or so a game. But like if you're going smaller, do I just match and go bigger with Hartenstein and Chet and say, okay, can Siakam beat Hartenstein in a mismatch situation? My guess is yes. But like, at what level would be my question to you.
- [26:58]
Sam Vicini
So Hardenstein was matched up with Siakam one on one quite a few times in in transition cross matches. In the film that I was watching, I actually thought Siakam had some success just like getting downhill against him. There was a little bit of like, there were a few plays where Siakam tried to draw fouls and it didn't work. But I actually liked Siakam's attack attacks against Oklahoma City's bigs. But the point you're bringing up about Hartenstein is fair. I think the way that I would think of it is in this theoretical scenario, the Pacers have played Hartenstein off the floor and then they go small. So essentially it would be almost like mirroring Miles Turner's minutes to harden. Ok, if that makes sense.
- [27:39]
Lester Holt
The other thing that we have to talk about here in any of the minutes that we watched on film, because I have watched the other games as well, like the games from the regular season, which Oklahoma City went 2 0. The game in March was like a 20 point beating and Chet did not play in either of these games is like the, like basically everybody else played. Like I think Ben Matheran missed one of the games as well. But like basically everybody else played in these games. So like we have like a decent sample here. But Chet did not play. And that does like really fundamentally change a lot for the way that Indiana is going to be able to match up. I think what worries me about this and I don't even know that you're wrong. Like I think that it's potentially their best option. I think it's potentially Indiana's best option is I do think Chet is better at guarding on the perimeter than like, you know, Carl Towns and then, you know, anything Jared Allen. Like any of these other guys, they played right? So what would worry me about this is you're just like, okay, we're just gonna play drop with chat and we're Gonna play at the level maybe with Chat, you're gonna try and what, like, slip seokum behind him maybe to get like an easy mismatch at times. Maybe you try and run like a quick little like, slide action where it's just like a quick little ghost pick and pop kind of thing in order to catch him. I think Indiana does a really good job of differentiating the kinds of ball screens that they run for sure. Maybe, like, it might be their best option is to go small. It's just the issue is that, like, they haven't really been willing to do this. And I did it a little bit.
- [29:19]
Sam Vicini
At the end of the next series. Just a little bit. Yeah.
- [29:21]
Lester Holt
Yeah. I'm like, all in favor of them not playing Tony Bradley and Thomas Bryant. Like, I think those are the minutes that really worry me if I'm Indiana. But yeah, this is. This is better to me. This is a good idea if I'm them. I'm definitely playing small more than I'm playing the 10 to 12 minutes a game where Thomas Bryant and Tony Bradley are on the court. I would definitely do that.
- [29:45]
Sam Vicini
Yeah. It. It ties to the defensive end because I didn't like the way that I thought that Indiana gave up a lot of vertical spacing opportunities in. On the role, specifically to Hartenstein. And that's what kind of. I'm glad you brought up the Chet piece because we talked this in our series preview. Like, I. I look at Chet as the best of both worlds with Hartenstein in the sense that he brings the same kind of vertical spacing element as a guy that can roll behind the defense, but that legitimately can guard on the perimeter in this whirling kind of offense. That said, even within that context, I think he's the smartest target point for Indiana to try to go after just because he's a big body. And if you can get him shifting one way or the other, yeah, that could help. I. Well, the other one.
- [30:27]
Lester Holt
The other thing with Chat is a. Is a lob threat to me. Right. I always think Chat is a little bit better as a lob threat cutting baseline than he is in ball screens. I just think it allows him to load up a little bit easier on those, like, in those situations. But what that does is it means that, like, a lot of the ball screens will be set like guard to guard. Right. And I would imagine, like, figuring out an answer to the guard to guard screening actions in the small lineups or actually, those are actually going to be the critical thing to me trying to figure out like okay, how do we, how do we handle the guard to guards? Are we just switching if it means we're getting Halliburton on Shea or if it means we're getting, you know, obi toppin onto Shea or we, you know, gonna try and like hedge and recover a little bit with Halliburton and toppin. Obviously you switch anything Nem Harden, Easmith, I would think. But you know, what would your answer be to the way that you guard guard to guard ball screens if you're going smaller would be my question.
- [31:25]
Sam Vicini
I would switch. I thought that Halliburton's hedges straight up didn't work because Oklahoma City's guards were just slipping to the rim. Particularly case in Wallace and I. I feel like Halliburton is at his best when he's going against like ghost screen guards that go to the three point line because he's really good at getting out of the hedge with his hands up and making that pass kind of float over the top and being able to rotate relatively quick. But I think the traditional like kind of guard guard screen where the guard just slips directly to the rim torch Taliburton. I actually thought he did okay in his Shay switches like okay, like at least enough to make him hit a couple counter moves to where the help defense could get involved and he actually did force a couple of misses. I know that's a lot to ask for Halliburton, but I'm worried that if they just let him hedge that it's going to end in a bunch of slips. But you're right. I mean, going small, I think the entire game plan shifts more towards switching because essentially the entire purpose of going small on both ends of the floor revolves around being able to attack Chet and space more effectively and then being able to switch ball screens so that they don't have the issues they were having with the roll man in the regular season. So I find that to be most likely a switching scheme if they were to go small.
- [32:46]
Lester Holt
Okay. And then final, final question here about this piece of it. If you go small, so do you just trust if you're Oklahoma City to. For Jalen Williams to be able to guard Siakam? Because if you do that, then it's topping, then it's Chet on topping. And I would imagine they'll just leave top and open from three at that point. Point.
- [33:06]
Sam Vicini
Yeah. I think you could also talk me specifically because of the Oklahoma City matchup into them going into more guards. I actually put this, actually this is a perfect pivot to the Next one, I had a different one for my second piece, but we'll go. We'll circle back to that. Should they? Because a lot of my Indiana on offense takes are geared around the idea that they're going to be face guarding Tyrese Halliburton and ball pressuring in full court and some of the stuff with him kind of getting disengaged. Halliburton's usage rate in the regular season is low compared to other guards because of how quickly he gets rid of the ball. But even juxtaposed with his normal usage rate, his usage rate against Oklahoma City was hilariously low. It was like 12%.
- [33:47]
Lester Holt
So the one. The one game, like he took like six shots or something.
- [33:51]
Sam Vicini
Yeah, it was the first one early in the season, and he was aggressive in the second game as a three point shooter, but it was. He wasn't really the same kind of like downhill force that he can usually be. So what I'm worried about, because the other thing too, that kind of hammers that home is both Cleveland and New York had success denying Halperton and that specifically leading to him kind of getting disengaged. So I'm kind of obsessed with this idea of how to make Halliburton useful as an off ball player in this series. So the first. The third piece that I wrote down here to kind of circle back to your point about who this fifth guy should be, I think dribble penetration is going to be really important because when things really bog down for Indiana against Oklahoma City, especially when they start to switch, they're going to need someone who can beat the man in front of him. And all of a sudden I start looking at TJ McConnell as an option. So I'm wondering if, obviously TJ makes no sense if you're going to be playing through Halliburton on ball, but let's say that Dort has a bunch of success against Halliburton early in the series with denials and physicality, and Halliburton's just super uncomfortable. You know, we're halfway through game two and he has like 13 total points on like 12 shots. And we're like, something's gone going on. We got to find a way to get Halliburton going. I. I would start to look at like a guard lineup that has TJ alongside Halle where, where he can one, space the floor off the ball. But two, I would be obsessed with using Halliburton as a screener in this series because if Dort's gonna hug up to him Then that's the best time to use him as a screener, because either odor will have to help, which will get him separated from that pressure, or you're going to get all sorts of dribble penetration off of. Of Of Dort not helping on screens. But either way, I like the idea of having a guard like TJ who's big and plays bigger than he is, but that has the ability to beat the man in front of him off the dribble. Arguably, that's his best NBA trait, is like, he can get past his man. And so I think that suddenly becomes really valuable alongside a Halliburton lineup where he's not being aggressive.
- [35:59]
Lester Holt
Yeah, no, this I completely agree with. I. I would expect that offensively, TJ will play a big role in this series just because they do need somebody who can get consistent penetration against Oklahoma City. And I do think that TJ can just drive like Casen will be on him at times, a great defender. Maybe you put Caruso on him at times. Maybe Caruso guards up the lineup. He's just so flexible in terms of what you can do with him that he's critical in a lot of ways. But, like, I think TJ can get downhill, like, in a way that is just effective almost against anybody. It's what happens when he gets to the paint that is the question, right? Like, can he make the mid range jumper? Can he, you know, get all the way downhill and get all the way to the rim? I think he might struggle there. But I agree with you totally in terms of the idea of using Halliburton as a screener. Like, I would, like, I'd be looking at like double drags into flares, right? For Halliburton to be able to potentially try and get him loose. I'd be looking at like, you know, trying to run even like off ball action for Halliburton where, like, you know, he's the screener. Like you set like a double pin down, like a rat pin or something, where Halliburton is the initial screener. And then, you know, the guy in the corner, maybe it's like obi toppin or something, comes around and sets like a rat pin for him to come around and be able to like go up and get the ball, right? Like, those ideas are really interesting to me in this series. Like, those are things that I would almost certainly try to look at. I. I think that that's going to be huge because if you look at where the Knicks started to have success with Halliburton later In the series, it was the pickup point, right? Like they would pick him up 50, 60ft from the rim and say, hey, we're gonna make life a little bit harder on you. We're gonna make sure that you have to work for every single second that you're on the court here, especially whenever you're not running in transition. Not off of a. Make any. The key here for the Thunder almost to me is like, can their offensive efficiency be strong enough to where they can stop Indiana from running at the end of the day? Because they will run off of misses, they will run off of turnovers. Like, I think that against Oklahoma City you probably struggle to run off of makes quite as often just because of the fact that Oklahoma City doesn't really go for the offensive class regularly. Like, it's just not something that they do. I think they were like 21st, 22nd, something like that in the league. And offensive rebounding rate this year. So they almost always have four guys back. It's going to be a little bit harder to run in transition. So you're going to have to figure out ways to get offensive efficiency in the half court. And to me, making Halliburton a screener and then trying to get him loose off the ball, that's a really. That's something I would absolutely do. Yeah, yeah.
- [38:37]
Sam Vicini
The last piece I had it, it all falls in the same lane, is just Siakam, Halliburton inverted ball screens. I. I think the series eventually tilts towards J Dub guarding Siakam. I think J Dub has generally done a good job against some of these big scoring forwards. He's just built like a truck and he's got long arms, which I think is the big thing that he can swipe at the basketball without getting out of position, which is key. But same sort of concept. Like imagine Dort. Now, I think Oklahoma City would inevitably just start switching this, but I, I think I like Halliburton's ability to potentially beat J Dub off the dribble more than I like him against Dortmund. And similarly, I think I like Door. I think I like Siakam trying to score against Dort in the post more than I like him trying to score against J Dub. And so now inevitably, I think Oklahoma City will double post ups over the course of the series. But I think that I would really, really explore just Siakam at the top of the key with Halliburton as a screener and then Halliburton basically just slipping out to the three point line if they're gonna if they're not gonna switch, and if they do switch, then using both of those guys, just having more favorable matchups. But to your point, and this is the. The more important piece of it all, I think Indiana is going to be running less for buckets in this series because of Oklahoma City's transition defense, but running more for those transition cross matches because I think those are going to be the key to getting them earlier, easier opportunities in the half court.
- [39:59]
Lester Holt
See, but. And I know we're trying to look at this from, like, how does Indiana win? That's what makes India. That's what makes the Thunder really, really hard to deal with, is because, like, their cross matches are not always advantageous, right? Certainly not nearly marginally as advantageous as other teams cross matches are. Right? So, okay, we're cross matching in transition, right? We're getting. Oh, wait, it's Caruso on Halliburton now. It's. It's Case and Wallace on Aaron Neesmith now. Right. Like, it's. It's hard, right? Especially when you have a number of different bodies that. I feel okay with guarding Siakam. Right? Like, Like, I feel fine if Caruso is on Siakam. I feel fine if Jalen is on Siakam. I feel certainly fine if Chad is on Siakam. Right. Shay is like, to me, the guy that you probably want to try and bring into the action defensively. And this isn't because Shea is a bad defender. I certainly don't think he is. It's more. Can you wear him down and kind of tire him out a little bit over the course of a series? The problem is in the finals, there are two days between every game except for one. So it's a little bit trickier to even, like, try and go with the let's wear somebody down angle because, you know, it's just harder. But, like, maybe you can wear them down over the course of a game a little bit, like, a small amount. Like who? I would imagine that the way that they'll set this up is that Shay is going to be guarding D. Smith, we think, right? So, like, to me, I'm going to set a bunch of Neesmith screens early in the game. I want to make Shay try and guard early in games is what I'm doing. If I'm Indiana, maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. But at the very least, I'm making him work defensively and trying to make him engaged in the game defensively a little bit more often than what, you know, he might have to be otherwise if he's able to play on Neesmith and just sit in the corner and then he's so long and covers ground so well that he's just going to be able to, you know, sit off of him and kind of relax a little bit. And then it's just very dangerous for Indiana on the other end because then he's well rested, he's playing that free safety role in the back line. He'll probably get some steals doing that because he's so long. That's. I think my goal early on would be to try and involve Shea in screen. Even though Shea is not a bad like on ball defender necessarily.
- [42:28]
Sam Vicini
I think Shea is a vehicle for them in a bunch of different ways. Like I think in situations where they can't push the ball at the floor in transition and they have to face up ball pressure, I think that Shea is an easy vehicle with which to like basically alleviate some of that. So essentially just let Niecemith bring the ball up the floor, you know, when. Whenever Halliburton needs a break or when he's fatigued, things along those lines. I think you mentioned using him as a screener. I even think I would hunt him off the ball with spot ups for Aaron Neesmith because I think Aaron Neesmith is a very good spot up closeout attacker. And I think if, I think if, if Dagnal has Shea doing what he did in the other series where he's like quite literally in the paint the entire series just as like a roamer, I think that's where you could end up burning him off ball with like those kickouts. Like ultimately before we shift over to the defensive end of the floor, I think this series inevitably tilts as long as Indiana doesn't like quite literally soil themselves against all the ball pressure, which I just don't think they will. But if, if they just as long as they don't like straight up soil themselves, they'll eventually take advantage of the openings in Oklahoma City's base scheme by moving the ball through it and getting those kick outs and knocking them down and just playing Indiana Pacers basketball.
- [43:40]
Lester Holt
But the difference is penetration is the key.
- [43:43]
Sam Vicini
If they can get penetration. But even like within that context, like, like for instance, like let's say, let's say that they're running ball screens on the right side of the floor with you know, or three man action on the right side of the floor with Halliburton and Turner and, and you know, Neesmith or someone like that, they're gonna tag rollers and they're Gonna pinch in and they're. The skip pass is going to be open and Tyrese is one of the very best players in the league at making the skip pass. So inevitably, I think the, the difference in between the two teams is that I don't know that Indiana has the same kind of defensive solutions that Oklahoma City has. Like, Oklahoma City can be like, we're struggling to guard these actions. All right, guys, we're switching everything. Guard, stay home off ball. Let's force these guys to play a bunch of one on one and let's see what happens. And, and I like to your point, there's just not a favorable matchup out there. Like we were talking about the Siakam Halliburton ball screen. I think there's a good chance. We see Caruso on Siakam a lot in this series and have him just switch onto guards and in action and stuff like that. And so ultimately it comes down to the fact that Oklahoma City just has more solutions. But moving to the defensive end of the floor. The first thing I wrote down is just the ultimate load up, meaning bring Miles Turner up to the level every single time. Help hard as the low man live in rotation. The thought process there is in this postseason, Oklahoma City still converting spot up possessions at just 0.96 points per possession, which ranks 10th among 16 playoff teams. Now, I would argue that in every big moment they've come through and hit those shots and driven those closeouts and made plays, but I still think it's probably the best chance to slow this team down in the half court and then forcing Biggs to score in the pocket, like bringing low man help more towards the rim and less like aggressively up in the middle and making those bigs like catch there. And they're still shooting just 49 as roll men in this postseason and they're turning the ball over about 10% of the time there. So essentially by just living in a super aggressive loaded up traditional coverage where you're at the level, coming over as the low man digging into the paint, forcing them to basically score in the pocket and score on spot ups, I think is still the best base scheme that they can use in this matchup.
- [45:51]
Lester Holt
Okay, so here'd be my first question. Where is the pickup point for you then? Like, where are you picking Shay up?
- [46:00]
Sam Vicini
I would start the series picking him up full court just because that's your identity and just see how it goes. But I would be willing to bail on that quickly because Shea is really good at turning ball pressure into dribble penetration. And Oklahoma City is really good at setting extended ball screens where they can get you into some trouble, like even as far out as half court to just get you into a compromising position. So I would start there, but I would potentially, if Shea beats the ball pressure easily, I would completely alter the pickup point to more of a contain approach where you're conceding pull up threes and you're ducking under picks and you're like doing that sort of stuff. The. I just, I would. I'm a big believer in, like, don't pivot off of your identity until they knock you off of it. So, like, this is a ball pressure team that has lived with ball pressure all postseason. I would start with that, but I would, I would pivot quickly if Shay does what he did to Jada McDaniels and just gets past him before you even get into the half court.
- [47:00]
Lester Holt
So I'm kind of working under the assumption that that's going to happen because that's just what Shay does, right? Like, if you pick up high, he's going to cause problems. And if you pick up high and he doesn't cause problems, then you're going to give the ball to Jalen and they're going to set screens for Jalen and then Jalen's going to get downhill and he's going to cause problems in terms of you picking up too high. So they have too many options to be able to handle the ball if you use the pickup point that high. I agree with you. Don't go away from your identity early in a series. I think you shouldn't do that. But I do think that the best way to guard this Oklahoma City team and just generally, because what you're trying to do here, if you're Indiana, in my opinion, is you're trying to create variance on some level, right? You are the underdog. You're trying to create variants. I'm trying to make them a three point shooting team and I'm trying to make them a catch and shoot three point shooting team, particularly. Or not. I'm sorry, a pull up shoot three point shooting team, not a catch and shoot three point shooting team. I want to avoid the catch and shoot three point shot as much as humanly possible. To me, the way to do that is you go under, chase you under and like drop even. Not drop, but like you play not a full drop, but like slightly at the level, right? Like slightly below the level. Maybe just make it so Shay can't walk into like 18 footers. Right? And then you Let Jaden get back in recovery and then you make. And then they're probably going to adjust to like more guard to guard action. Right. And that's fine to me as well. Maybe you just switch that depending on what your matchup is. If you, if it's Halliburton, I don't love that switch. You maybe decide to. Yeah, like I just go. I think I go under with Halliburton at that point and don't even like you don't hard hedge. You just go under and drop and you make Shay beat you with pull up threes as opposed to pull up twos.
- [48:58]
Sam Vicini
Yeah. I think the other thing they could explore there too is like using kind of a modified hedge where the on ball guy kind of drops back to Chuck the cutter as Halliburton's throwing the hedge. Because yeah, might. It's like with the at the level coverage. The at the level coverage to me is not about taking away the pull up. It's about preventing him from getting ahead of steam. Like that. To me that like I, I'm with you. Like, I want, I want Shea taking as many pull up jump shots as possible in this series, but I think if you run too aggressive of a drop and you let him get a Runway. Yeah, it's one thing to be like, it's fine, just go under the pick, but it's like all it takes is him just doing a nifty ball handling move where he gets you jumping under the pick and then he just reverses or something like that and you could be in some serious trouble. So like that, that's the one thing where like I like, I feel like at the level is primarily serving the purpose of stopping the ball handler from getting ahead of steam. The hedges. I don't have a good answer for you. The switch is bad with Halliburton. This like modified kind of like Chuck the Cutter thing I'm talking about, it's all theoretical. Like it's. You're just. That's just the reality of Tyrese Halliburton being Tyrese Halliburton and trying to guard in that sort of action. But I still think I would try switching over anything else. But I generally agree with you that like the game plan of this particular matchup is to gear them towards the highest variance shot that they can take, which is literally a pull up jump shot for Shay or J Dub. We talked about going small. That's the true 1 through 5 switchability, but that opens the door for offense rebounding in the same sort of problem that we talked about with Halliburton Zone. The thing with Zone, I was gonna bring it up. The Thunder struggled a bit with Zone early in the Denver series, but they're averaging well over a point per possession against Zone over their last six playoff games. Like they've been figuring that out and it's just, they just have guys that are a lot of guys who are comfortable working in the middle of the floor. And once again this team, the the overall like ball movement and spacing principles and just the awareness on offense is like so much higher than it was last year in my opinion. They could try some inventive zones like a 32 or a 13 1, but I think Chet and Hartenstein and Caruso and Casen Wallace, I think all of those guys have been great with like teeing up and working along the baseline and like finding opportunities against any sort of like front loaded defense. So like I, I, I, I think ultimately things come back down to what you just mentioned, which is like that contain the ball, force them to play in drop, some variation of drop, either a high drop or a low drop or a mid somewhere in the middle and ducking under whenever possible and basically just putting the ball handler into this like decision zone where it's like will I take this mediocre shot or will I attempt to continue to work things around? AI is redefining what's possible for your business. Are you up to the challenge? Microsoft is helping leaders like you get AI ready faster with unified data and simplified platform management, unlocking up to 150% improved output across industries. Leaders are turning to Microsoft's AI tools and guidance to rise to the challenge. For the NBA, that means using AI powered insights to deliver more personalized fan experience. For BMW, it means innovating their development process safely and securely. And for Lego House, it means creating new interactive experiences for people to explore. With Microsoft's trustworthy AI tools and guidance, you can drive greater impact. Business leaders Microsoft surveyed saw an average of 3.7 times ROI per $1 invested in generative AI. Whatever challenge comes next, let Microsoft help keep pushing you forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com challengers hi Zoe Saldana.
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Lester Holt
Welcome to T Mobile. Here's your new iPhone 16 Pro on us. Thanks. And here's my old phone to trade in. You don't need to trade in.
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Tom Brokaw
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Sam Vicini
Give you a new iPhone 16 Pro.
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Lester Holt
Plus we'll help you pay off your old Phone up to 800 bucks and.
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You still get to keep it there's always a trade in.
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Lester Holt
Not right now. AT T Mobile. I feel like I have to give you something in return for karma.
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Tom Brokaw
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Lester Holt
I don't really have much in my purse. Oh, let's see.
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Sam Vicini
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Lester Holt
It's lavender. I'm good.
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Lester Holt
Let me check this pocket.
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Sam Vicini
Oh, mints.
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Lester Holt
Really, I'm fine. Oh, I have raisins. I'm a mom.
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Lester Holt
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Tom Brokaw
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- [55:47]
Lester Holt
And it's not an either or thing, right? Like, if I'm Rick Carlisle, I'm going into this series doing something very similar to what Denver did in terms of I'm not just sitting in a 2, 3 zone or I'm not just sitting in man to man. I'm giving him five different looks, you know what I mean? Like Denver in games, what was it, like 3, 4 and 5. Maybe if I remember correctly, they came out like a goofy one three one where like Jokic was on the left wing, you know what I mean? Like, and then they would sink back into like their normal 2, 3 zone. And then there'd be possessions where they played in drop, and then there'd be possessions where they hedged. Like they gave them different looks. And to me, you know, the days off going into the finals, the days off between games in the finals, that gives you ample opportunity to be able to throw some of these things in. You know what I mean? You can throw in the idea of, okay, we are going to give them five different looks in the first quarter like Denver did. We're going to say, hey, we need to be really solid with our 2, 3 defense. Where, like Denver's 2, 3 was really interesting. Like, they would lift Jokic pretty high toward like the foul line area in order to take away that ability for, you know, Caruso to shoot into the foul line area or Chet to shoot into the foul line area or for Shay to feel comfortable once he got into that area because he'd always have someone to contest. And then they'd have the base, the back line guys in the corners, you know, rotate in and rotate out, right? Like it was like a weird, like almost like a 2, 1, 2, like 2, 3 zone half the time. Like if, if I'm them, I'm Indiana, I'm looking at it like, okay, let's throw some of those looks in let's throw some of the, like, let's throw a 131look in. Let's throw a man to man look in. And this is all very hard. This is all very difficult on the fly when you haven't done it all season. Season, right? But this is the whole point of having all these days off and having a team that I frankly think is like filled with really freaking smart basketball players. Right? They can probably figure that, like the, this team of guys, like, I didn't really trust Minnesota's guys to figure it out because both Ant and Julius Randall are just not attentive enough off the ball defensively to be able to like, effectively be able to play his own. But most of Indiana's guys are like pretty solid. Like, even Tyrese is like a pretty solid off ball defender. He knows where he's supposed to rotate, he knows where he's supposed to go. If I'm them, I'm just throwing all sort of different looks at them. More than anything, I'm throwing different ball screen coverages, I'm throwing different occasional zone looks. And if I have some success, I see what's like you're throwing spaghetti at a wall whenever you have like a fork in the middle of the wall and you're seeing which strand falls onto the fork and stays hanging as opposed to falling to the ground. Right.
- [58:49]
Sam Vicini
I love this point that you're making because like, you talked about trying to breed variants as much as possible and how, I mean, we, even before we started talking about the series, just about the value of coaching and when you have these extra days, you just have so much more time to implement these sort of things. I almost think of it like, you know, like in the NFL, when they talk about like your first drive being scripted and then, you know, after you get off script, like, how well can you, you know, play call in the moment? I, I almost feel like if you're going to mix up coverages, you almost go into it with like an incredibly scripted approach where it's like, here's how we're coming out, here's what we're going to do after the first time out, as soon as they go to, you know, this lineup, this is what we're going to do. As soon as they go to that lineup, this is what we're going to do. Then we're suddenly going to come out in the second half and do this. And then when we're in our early fourth quarter stretch, when, you know, this is who, how we anticipate the game to be Going, this is what we're going to do. Just have like an incredibly scripted approach to the mixing up of coverages and essentially just call on your guys to spend their off days mentally engaged, kind of figuring out how they're going to do that kind of stuff. Because to your point, they're going to need every inch. They're going to need every inch to. To win this series. And so before we wrap up today, I. I said on my show that I would be absolutely stunned if Indiana won. I picked Oklahoma City in five. I'm having a really hard time even conceptualizing a universe where they win this series. Why don't you just tell us like your 30, 000ft, like, outlook on the series in terms of who you think's gonna win, how you expect the series to go, just like what your read is on the series from your perspective.
- [60:28]
Lester Holt
I also picked Oklahoma City in five in on my show. I think that they're gonna throw just so many different bodies at Halliburton. The Thunder are gonna throw so many different bodies at Halliburton. And then they also have bodies like you can have two different primary defenders each game to throw at Halliburton and Nemhard to be able to just slow them down and annoy them. And then you're making at that point, Neesmith Siakam be the guys that either bring the ball up the court or have to initiate offense or whatever you want to do in order to have a real degree of effectiveness if those guys get wiped out. So that worries me offensively. I mean, look like the numbers say that Oklahoma City has been better with the five out alignment of Chet at the five and then four small guys. JDub typically at the four. Right. I. I am interested to see what the two big lineup looks like against the Pacers, if only because I think that because they do generally kind of abandon the offensive glass outside of Hartenstein, that they might have a little bit more success than teams like Cleveland in New York did against Indiana in terms of just being able to get all the way back in transition and avoid cross matches in significant ways. The big things that really worry me though for the Pacers here are we're talking about this all in a manner in which we know that, like, they're entirely healthy and like Miles Turner to me has not moved quite as well as he was early in the playoffs since he went down the tunnel in game two, if I remember correctly of the Knicks series, like, I mean, Carl Towns like absolutely obliterated him in that series in Any, like, bench unit situation. I was like, I. I did not love the way he was moving. And then Aaron Neesmith as well, obviously sprains his ankle or whatever in game. What was that? Four, right?
- [62:39]
Sam Vicini
Yeah.
- [62:40]
Lester Holt
Game five, maybe.
- [62:41]
Sam Vicini
Yeah. And he hasn't been as impactful since he came back.
- [62:44]
Lester Holt
Yeah, he hasn't been as impactful and just hasn't, like, played more than 20 minutes in a game yet. So, like, if he can't play a ton, a ton of minutes, Jairus Walker is going to miss the first two games of this series as well. And, like, you know, I'm not sitting here saying that I think Jairus Walker is like, an impact player by any stretch of the imagination in a NBA Finals. I mean, maybe down the road, but I don't really know what to expect from him even when he gets back. And losing him gives you, like, another chess piece that you can throw down at the. At the table here. Having Tony Bradley and Thomas Bryant, like, you probably have to play them, like, minutes of this series. Unless Obi Toppin proves that he's able to, like, play the five consistently. And frankly, Rick Carlisle proves he's willing to play small consistently, which, like, he hasn't done yet. Yeah, look, I think they steal one for sure because I just have an immense amount of faith in this Indiana team. But the biggest thing for me here is look, like I had Oklahoma City. I don't even think I picked a winner of these two in the preseason. I had Oklahoma City and Boston is the two teams that I thought would be in the finals in the preseason. I picked Oklahoma City at the start of the playoffs. Like, I think we're just way underrating how good this team is and how well they've been built. This is a genuinely historic defense that they've built. They are one of the best defensive teams I've ever watched play in my entire life. And they have an MVP candidate to be able to get them enough on offense. And they have the five belt structure to be able to play well enough on offense to be able to make it work. Like, they have Shea Gills Alexander, who could probably retire now and be a Hall of Famer. They have Chet and Jalen Williams, who, like, frankly, like, if they go down and become hall of Famers, I don't think anybody should be surprised. Surprised Based on what they've shown so far. I'm not going to sit here and say these guys are hall of Famers right now, but, like, that trajectory is very open to them still in a real way. And they just have like a tremendous number of role players that are really hard to deal with. So they won 68 games and have it like elite, elite defense. This might just be like a truly great team, right? It's okay. Like it's okay for the Pacers to lose like a truly, truly great team. And I think that that's kind of where this is setting up at this point.
- [65:07]
Sam Vicini
Yeah, it's interesting because like, I think some of the criticism of Oklahoma City going into the postseason was fair in the sense that like their offense was rickety and guess what? Every time they lost in this postseason, it was rickety. Like all four of their losses, their half court offensive rating was below 90 and they, and it was close. Like, like they were down nine in game five of the Nuggets series in the fourth quarter. They were down eight in game four of the Nugget series in the fourth quarter. They could have been a second round exit, but to their credit, they conquered their demons in those moments and got the job done and so like it. I, I thought Oklahoma City had all the markers of one of those great teams, but I thought the skepticism surrounding them was also fair. I had them second going into the postseason behind Boston just because I looked at. Boston is essentially a team that could reach not that same level defensively, but a very high level defensively, but also just a more experienced, veteran, reliable offense. And that ended up being completely wrong as Boston quite literally fell apart in that Knicks series. But I agree with you. Like, I think, I think Indiana gets game three. I think it's completely reasonable to think that Indiana can get a game based on that rickety offense. Like they're, they just have the ability still to go very cold and their guard initiators are still somewhat prone to stre stretches of poor decision making that you can, you can see them losing a game. Their defense though I'm 100 with you, I think it's one of the greats. I listed this earlier today on our, on our other pod because our actual full series preview pod because I was just so fascinated by the line of just body bags that Oklahoma City has left behind in this postseason. Desmond Bain had a 3 for 12 with four turnovers, a 3 for 14 with five turnovers. Jaren Jackson at 2 for for 13 with four points. Jaren Jackson at 3 for 12. Jokic for three straight games went 33% from the field, 18% from three with more turnovers than assists. Julius Randall a 2 for 11 with six points of 1 for 7 with five points. Like they have like Straight up embarrassed some of the better players in our league. And I think they have the potential to do that again. Like, we didn't even talk about it, but like, I think there's a chance that Tyrese Halliburton, we leave this series thinking of him very differently because of, of the damage that this team can do. Like, in my opinion, all time great is something that you start throwing around when you win multiple championships. But speaking strictly within the scope of one season, I'd argue this since, since like Kobe's Last title in 2010. Like, if you went from like 2011 moving forward, it's the 2017 warriors, and then I think it would be this team. I think they would be the, the next team on that list. Like, I think they've been more dominant and more successful against tougher competition than like the 2013 heat. You know, like, if you really dig into it, like, I'd argue I'd probably, like if you're, if you're asking me who I'd taken a series, I'd probably take the 2013 Heat because it's like LeBron and Dwyane Wade. But like, if you're just strictly speaking of like, what's happening within the season, what did they accomplish? We discussed this Western Conference as being an absolute bloodbath going into the season, and guess what? It was an absolute bloodbath. We talked about there being seven legitimate contenders in the Western Conference and they've won it. They won the conference and they won it relatively easily. Obviously a little bit of a threat from Denver. They've played some really good teams. I, I think it's pretty undeniable that if they close this out, they're one of the great single season champions. Obviously you got to sustain and the NBA has a weird way of just positioning new adversity in your path. Just ask Celtics fans, like, as, as they lose to in a series, they were a minus 800 fav. But yeah, like, I, I, I've been so I thought game, I thought Game 4 against Minnesota was the defining moment of this playoff run in the sense that you have Shea putting together probably the best individual game of his career in that like he was fa. Minnesota completely shifted their scheme and played a very similar type of like pack the paint, force him to make decisions and over the top shots to what Oklahoma City was doing to anti and, and he had 40 and 10 assists in that same game. J Dub, the guy who's been consistently criticized as a guy who doesn't show up just was fucking awesome. And then Chet Holmgren hitting huge catch and shoot threes. Their defense, hold it, like Game 4 against Minnesota to me, was like the, the kids growing up and them showing that all of the, the demons that stood in their way, they, they were able to conquer and get the job done. And I think they absolutely are one of those special teams. And frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if they won the title again next year. I mean, honestly, let me just. This will be my last little thing towards to ask you. What do you. If you. Let's say Oklahoma City wins, what do you think would be the preseason odds for Oklahoma City to win the title next year?
- [70:05]
Lester Holt
Plus 150, plus 200. So. So here's my thing. Is San Antonio getting Yanis? If San Antonio gets Giannis, I think they're an immediate title contender just point blank. I agree straight up. If they get Giannis and like some or if somebody else gets Giannis, like, I'm, I'm willing to hear that out for sure. And I think those odds would change in some way. But going without knowing who that is, without knowing where Duran is going, I think they open quite low, I would say, in terms of the odds. Not, not quite. Like, like it. To me, it's like, you know Scotty Scheffler in golf right now. You know somebody that, like, bets on golf, right? Like, Scotty Scheffler has won like his last three tournaments, right? And I think we're looking at. It's something like he wins like once every, like four times. He. Once every three or four times he plays, right? So. And like, with the way he's playing right now, like, I kind of think he should be like +100 to. + 150 every single time that he takes the course because it's just ridiculous. Like, he's so far ahead of everybody. It's like a Tiger effect thing right now. I kind of think that given that this is the year before Oklahoma City gets expensive and there are going to be decisions that have to be made in the summer of 2026, maybe even starting this year, where they have to figure things out in order to get ahead of it, but they also have like a million draft picks to get out of it, too. And they do a pretty good job drafting. They're not like infallible, like, they will take Usman Jang and Dylan Jones sometimes, but, like, they're pretty damn good at drafting, right? So they're really well equipped to keep this thing going. And really the financial problems don't start next year. They start the Year after. So it's. Yeah, like, they should be very much the favorite going into next year. Like, even if they lose the series, I think they should be the favorite going into next year because Jalen and Chad aren't getting worse. Guys, like, those guys are going to get better. Chet. Chet Holmgren is, like, scratching the surface of how good he's going to be. He's nowhere near that level yet, is the crazy thing. So, yeah, to me, yeah, this team is awesome. And by the way, like, J Dub, can we, like, just, like, chill on the. Like, hey, is this guy, like, a failure or whatever? Is this guy, like, a guy who doesn't rise, raise to the occasion? I'm not saying you did that, obviously, but, you know, in the Minnesota series, 22 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, shooting 49, 46, 83. In the Memphis series, I thought he was their best player. Scored over 20 points every game. You know, shot 23, 5 and 5 on 54, 29, 60, 60. Like, they didn't really need him to go nuts. But he still did it most nights. And the efficiency can go from time to time, but, like, his ability to create shots, and then he's doing it also while being one of the 15 best defenders in the league, too. It's crazy. He is. I continue to say this. We did a show on my podcast, what, like, maybe a year and 20 year. Year and two months ago, year and three months ago. Like, the guys that are, like, rising stars in the NBA, right? Like, the guys that aren't getting talked about enough. And my first pick was Jalen Williams because it's like, I do not think people understand how hard it is to find this skill set in a single player who can shoot, create his own shot, defend at a high level, switch against one through, like, four and a half, let's call it. Like, these guys are impossible to find. Like, he is this. This is like a Jimmy, but this is like, this era coming up. Jimmy Butler, and he might get one. Like, when he's 23 or 24 years old is where we're at.
- [73:54]
Sam Vicini
Like, yeah, he has the competitiveness, too. There's just. There's, like. There's, like, a layer of competitiveness that really, I think, goes down the roster with Oklahoma City. We were actually talking about this on playback the other night. Like, I would argue that that's one of the most underrated basketball traits. It's like, how much of a.
- [74:10]
Lester Holt
Yes.
- [74:11]
Sam Vicini
How much do you hate losing? Like, how much are you willing to put it on the line to prevent the loss. And he's just one of those classic guys. I think it's so funny that you said we literally landed on the exact same number. We had a little exercise where we were like, what, what would be the championship odds for Oklahoma City at Open next year? And we both said the same thing right around that 150/150 range. I, I'm not as worried about the big picture cost stuff because I think, I think, I think they're just, I think they're literally just going to try to use the draft to find supplemental role player talent. Yeah, I think that's what they're going to do. I think they're going to, I think they're going to have their max guys and I think they're just going to rotate through trusting their draft department. Like I, like I don't think they're going to trade a bunch of draft picks for their generations. Dorian, Finney, Smith, you know what I mean? Like they're going to, for a 20 million dollar role player. They're going to be targeting smart upperclassmen that have been playing in organized programs for great coaches that they can trust to come in and play 10, 15 minutes in a playoff game. You know, basically the case on Wallace types. Like they're going to be, they're going to be hunting those guys non stop and I think they'll pivot off of expensive role players and they'll trust their core. And I, I think they're here to stay and I think it's an excellent coach.
- [75:22]
Lester Holt
You bring up like the competitiveness thing and like the basketball IQ thing. This is part of their process. Like this is what they look for. Like this is exactly what they're, I've been talking about this for multiple years now. They look for dribble, pass, shoot, defend, real positional size, length and competitiveness. Like those are the things that if you have those boxes and you tick those boxes, you can play for this team. If you can't, then you're, you know, not everybody's going to tick every single one of those boxes, but you need to be able to like potentially get there at some point to be able to tick that box. And you know, if you don't hit a certain threshold in all of those categories, you probably are not Noklah City Thunder guy. And to me they were just so far ahead of it in terms of the rest of the league where they knew that these guys were the most valuable guys and they put their stamp on it by going out and getting Alex Caruso this summer. Through Arturo's Carnis incompetence. But, like, you know, they're always there to take advantage of those front offices that maybe don't value a player quite. Quite enough and get the right value for them.
- [76:30]
Sam Vicini
So, yeah, anybody could have traded for Drew Holiday. Anybody could have traded for Drew Holiday. You know, anybody could. Like, these guys are a lot. It's the, it's the market inefficiency right now. Like, how, how. How often in this playoff run did we see a really good player? I thought Julius Randall was the latest example in that. In like, game four of the Oklahoma City series, where, like, when things don't go their way, they just kind of shut down. Like, there's a lot of guys who are like that. Like, it's, it's like a fight or flight response. And like, you. When, when the shit gets tough, do you have a dude who like, knuckles down and like, really tries to just find a way to impact winning one way or another? It's like, I think it's. I think it's such an important foundational basketball trait. But, Sam, I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to come on the show, tell everybody where they can find your work.
- [77:16]
Lester Holt
Go to the Game Theory podcast over on YouTube. We just passed like five 40,000 subscribers, so we're doing great over there. We appreciate you guys immensely for coming over and hitting that button. Go, go to the Athletic. Keep me employed over there where I write about the NBA draft as well the NBA draft guide, which is the big, like 150,000 word thing. I write about all of the prospects in the draft that will be forthcoming relatively soon. I don't want to put a date on it because I don't want to jinx the fact that if I put a date on it, things could get hairy. But, like, could be as soon as next week, let's say. So once that goes live, go hit the subscribe button. Go hit the, you know, go, go subscribe to the New York Times and all that stuff where I go work.
- [78:05]
Sam Vicini
So, yeah, and guys, Sam and I talked before the show. He will be coming on at some point later in the month to. He's. He. I think he's the best guy covering the draft draft. And so we're. As you guys know, I basically completely ignore the draft until right after the finals. And so although there's been a little bit more Cooper flag, you know, kind of motivation this year, but, like, we're gonna have Sam on and we're gonna talk a lot of NBA draft stuff when we get later into the month. Sam, again, thank you so much for the time. I will give you a call sometime in the next week too so we can catch up and just see how you're doing over there. But as always, we appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. Make sure you guys head over and subscribe to Sam's YouTube channel and his work on the Athletic and we will see you guys tomorrow for the top five storylines of the NBA Finals. AI is redefining what's possible for your business with more unique challenges to solve and higher stakes than ever, Microsoft helps you stay ahead. Our trustworthy AI tools and guidance can empower leaders like you to drive greater impact. And with Azure simplified platform management, we're helping businesses go further and faster by unlocking up to 150% improved output. Whatever challenges come next, let Microsoft help you keep pushing forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com challengers Traveling.
- [79:27]
Lester Holt
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- [80:01]
Sam Vicini
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- [80:35]
Lester Holt
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