Jason (19:20)
It's worth mentioning that in the fourth quarter that during that run their defense was incredible as well. The big thing that really started to have some effect was just overall ball denials. They there was a possession where Nemard had a quality denial of of Shay on a sideline out of bounds where he was trying to get a post up and because they didn't throw it to him and ended up getting worked around to J Dub for a miss, there were multiple plays where guys like got denied and they tried to back cut out of the denial and then Hartenstein or someone else like threw a pass on a backdoor cut to try to get them open against the denial that led into turnovers. So like lots and lots of success from ball denials. Lots and lots of success from just overall ball pressure. We're going to talk about it in a minute, but I thought Oklahoma City really looked fatigued down the stretch. Defense was a huge element of those fourth quarter runs as well. Now down the stretch once again in classic Pacers fashion, a little bit of everybody right Tyrese Halliburton, who all night long started just taking the I thought he came out the first couple minutes a little passive, but hit the jets there in the middle of that first quarter and just did a great job all night of just taking the conceded coverage beating looks that he wasn't taking for the first three quarters of game two every possession sometimes they beat him over the top of the screen. He wasn't able to get some clean looks. But all throughout this series, again in the drop coverage, he's had mildly contested pull up jump shots coming off of ball screens and mildly contested floaters going downhill in ball screens all against variations of drop coverage. Those shots have been there for him and he just didn't take them for the first three quarters of game two. Did a much better job tonight of taking them and he was making them tonight. So not only was he keeping himself in a rhythm, but he was actually providing some real scoring pop for his team. But in the fourth quarter hit a huge three at the top of the key that broke a tie that put them up by three. Late in the game he had a beautiful skip pass and pick and roll that led to an Aaron NE Smith three in the right corner. Niecemith had a couple of massive threes in the second half of this game despite having even I talk all the time about just find a way to make a play when you're having a rough night. And niece Smith was getting cooked by J Dub in ISO and in ball screens all night long. He was missing shots. It was like a really rough NITH game and he just hit a couple of huge threes late and he got a couple of big stops on J Dub late and who the hell cares what happened before that. Pacers got the win, right? But really nice skip pass from Halliburton there. I thought he actually missed another one that could have gotten to the Siakam three in the left corner where he forced the ball to Turner instead. But Halliburton did a really nice job down the stretch. Nem hard, hit two huge jumpers. There was a play where TJ McConnell just straight up broke off SGA on an ISO but he smoked the layup on the tap, the tap out. That happened after Namhard hit a pretty tough little mid range jump shot over Chet. He had another one in drop coverage that was a big shot in crunch time. Miles Turner, after having a brutally bad game for three quarters, just getting absolutely fried in his at the level coverage and missing shots all over the floor. He bullied Chet on a pocket pass or he caught the ball and just got downhill and then just bumped Chet off and Chet went flying and he got a little easy layup. He blocked Chet three times in the fourth quarter, twice at the rim in another play at the three point line. Once again rough game for Miles for three quarters. Just find a way to make a play. Now we will remember game three as a game where Miles Turner made huge plays and helped his team win and no one's going to care about what happened in the first three quarters. It's such a cla. These were such classic examples of like, for you young basketball players out there, no matter what happens in the first quarter, no matter what happens in the second quarter, no matter what happens in 3rd, no matter what happens in the first half of the fourth quarter, like just find a way to make a play and do something to put your, your team in position to win and no one's going to give a shit about what happened during the remainder of that game. Obi Toppin, a huge sequence, a two way sequence where he had a tip dunk and then got a block on the other end. Tyrese was running a guard guard screen on the left side of the floor. He rejected the screen and got great dribble penetration. And when you get great dribble penetration, trickle down effects, right? Lou Dort has to step over off of the weak side corner in low man help. Alex Caruso, who's guarding Toppin, has to drop an account for the corner. That opens up a Runway for Obi Toppin to just shoot down that right wing lane line and he just gets up and throws down a massive two handed dunk. They go down to the other end down the stretch. The Pacers were way, way better with their at the level coverages with their forwards. The at the level coverage with Turner doesn't work. It's causing all sorts of problems. We're going to talk about that in a minute. But with Siakam and Toppin in particular, they got multiple stops on switches in actions that looked to attack them with either J Dub or Shay. And a big part of it was one of the problems they were having in those hedges or in those switches with those forwards is one either the on ball guy would lose contain and Shea or J Dub would just reject the screen. At which case it'd be an automatic four on three. Or they would go off the screen and then just immediately split top in or split Siakam and get right downhill and suddenly it'd be another four on three. Those four on threes have been a major issue for Indiana's defense over the course of the last two games. But in the fourth quarter, one of the things they were doing, the on ball guy was more strongly overplaying towards the screen to make it so that Shea or J Dub could not reject the screen. Almost like an ice coverage where you're like forcing him to go a certain way. Except for instead of in an ice coverage, you force the guard to go away from the screen. In this case, they were overplaying him to the screen. And then the guy Siakam or Toppin weren't getting split. Toppin was meeting him a little further back. Siakam, same thing. Using his length to contest. After the tip dunk, Toppin switched onto J Dub, slid his feet, kept his chest in front of that shoulder, met J Dub at the rim and swatted his ass. Huge play down the stretch of that game. And then their defense, we talked a little bit about it earlier, but after really struggling to guard Oklahoma City for basically seven quarters in a row, they got the stops they needed in that fourth quarter. Again, Siakam and Toppin in those switches. Siakam locked up SGA and ISO twice. Once got him to pass out of a little step back three attempt another one where he contested a really like a really nice contested ISO like 18 footer off of the left elbow where he got a stop. He also had a really sharp closeout on Caruso on a play where he had a foot in the paint. Pass went out to Crusoe. Crusoe looked open. We talked about this in the Knicks series too, but Siakam has been really good with his, like helping recover closeouts on the weak side. He got a really good closeout on Caruso that forced him to pass out of what looked like an open 3. They started to snuff out specific actions. We talked earlier about their at the level coverages with their forwards. We won't go any further into that. But they finally got a stop on that SGA back screen action. We talked about this in game. In game one, they had Shea back screen for Kayson, Wallace case, and Wallace got a wide open layup because Nemhard didn't want to help off of SGA on screens. They ran it again early in the fourth quarter tonight for Chet SGA screen for him. Nemhard didn't want to help. Chet got an easy layup out of it. They ran it again in crunch time and finally the Pacers snuffed it out. Nemhard slid over and showed while I it was one of the bigs. I think it was Siakam. It might have been Turner. I think it was Turner, actually. Turner lingered for just a second on Shay while Nemar lingered for just a second showing on the chat back cut. And then they recovered to each other's man, shut down the action again. That's what happens in these playoff series as things progress. You see things enough times, you start to kind of snuff out the actions, you know what, you know what you're looking for, what you're waiting for, and it all of a sudden becomes a little bit more about getting one on one buckets or where you can create an advantage because the actions aren't working as well. And then in general, ball pressure and fatigue. I you'll notice I've been pretty critical of the Turner at the level coverages, especially in this series, but I haven't been too worried about the ball pressure. There's been some downsides where they've given up dribble penetration, but the big difference between this team and Jaden McDaniels is when Jaden McDaniels would get beat. He's not as quick footed to get back into the plate. Nith Nemhard TJ these guys are so quick footed that even when they give up dribble penetration in their ball pressure, they can pressure from behind and rush the ball handler into making mistakes. I'm advocating with Turner for a deeper drop coverage. We'll see, we'll talk about that when we get a little bit later into the show. But those, that is a specific issue that they were having with Minnesota that Minnesota was having where Shea would beat ball pressure and then he was just getting wherever he wanted on the floor for the most part. Indy's been able to like actually cause some issues with their dribble drive guys into rushing, into making mistakes and turning the basketball over. And there is a huge fatigue element to ball pressure and denials. And I thought Oklahoma City looks tired down the stretch. Shea in particular, hands on knees, not fighting for loose balls like Shay looked really tired down the stretch of this game. And that is a cumulative wear and tear effect that comes from that ball pressure. But once again for the Pacers, everybody made plays and that continues to be the story for this Pacers team. They have seven guys averaging double figures for them in this series. Nobody's averaging 20, but seven dudes are averaging at least 10. Juxtaposed with a Thunder team that has two dudes averaging 20 and five dudes total averaging 10. They are just a, they are just a cumulative force of nature. On any given night, it's somebody different doing something different. But they're, they're just a remarkably balanced basketball team. They as a team forced a bunch of turnovers, blocked a bunch of shots. They continue to be one of my favorite playoff teams that I've ever watched. I actually thought it was funny. I saw a comment from, from you guys after last night's show where there are a lot of Pacers fans that think that, like, I want the Thunder to win. That's not true. Like, I think the Thunder are going to win. I picked them to win the series because you'd be foolish not to, given what we knew about the two teams coming in. But, like, I find the Pacers to be a more likable basketball team than the Thunder. I find the Pacers to be a funner team to watch than the Thunder. Me and my basketball pick is not the same as what my basketball heart believes, so to speak. And I will flatly say that the Pacers are one of my favorite teams that I've ever watched. And like, and I'll just freely admit I have been rooting for them in this series. It's just an authentic basketball field feeling that I have when I'm watching this team. I'm watching them and I want them to win. So, like, that is that I believe in the Thunder and I have so much respect for the Thunder and we're going to talk about the specific reasons why I think they still deserve to be favored in the series. But yeah, like, I'm. I'm sitting on the couch and I find myself rooting for the Pacers because they're just such an unbelievably likable basketball team that plays such a beautiful brand of basketball. You've got a couple of U of A guys on the roster that's obviously going to appeal to me and my sentimentality a certain amount. Right? So, like, this is. They. They've just. I think they've been such an excellent showcase for the next generation of basketball fans to see what the best version of modern basketball looks like. And I've just really enjoyed watching them in this playoff run. On the Oklahoma City front. They look to be in really strong position for three quarters after J Dub hit that little sidestep three at the top of the key at the end of the third quarter that put them up 5. I thought they were going to pull that game out. It mostly came down to turnovers. Their half court offensive rating wasn't good. I think it was like a 93 if I remember correctly. But they were, they were efficient in their specific actions. When they didn't turn the ball over, they got good looks. And I'm sure that's what Degnaut will be talking about when he watches the film and he talks to his guys. He's going to be like, look, when we don't take. When we don't turn the basketball over and we get the ball through their defense, we get quality looks. Oklahoma City shot the ball really well last night. Like, that's the other thing, too. Like, if you're a Pacers fan, you're looking for another upside. Like, you won game one despite the insane amount of turnovers. You won game three despite the fact that Oklahoma City shot substantially better than you did. There's a lot of upside there if you're a Pacers fan looking for some optimism looking forward in the series. But Oklahoma City did, when they didn't turn the ball over, they did get good looks. They were very efficient in pick and roll. This is the, in this entire series, Oklahoma City has been extremely well, especially in game two and three, I should say. Oklahoma City has been very, very efficient attacking and pick and roll. They have a lot of upside that they've been able to identify through three games. They just can't turn the ball over as much as they did. They, they did get away from their pet action. Like, it's funny. Every team has to have a pet action that they trust in order to have success later in playoff series. And I think the Shay Gil just Alexander ball screens where they're attacking Miles Turner in space are really, really good. And they're getting great stuff out of them. Even in the fourth quarter. They got a wide open three for Lou Dort out of the left corner in, out of that action. And they should have got another wide open three for Lou Dort. But Chet Mr. Read off of a short roll, a catch. But, like, they consistently get four on threes out of it because either the guy shows too high and Shade dumps it over the top and that guy gets a 4 on 3 on the roll. Or Shay's just beating that, that at the level show from Turner because he's too slow to keep him in front in space. Or Shea's rejecting the screen and now Turner's on the wrong side of the screen and he's getting four on three. Anyway, they get a lot of really good stuff out of that, but they didn't spam it enough. Like, classic example, the one that Dort missed. Like, Shay runs the ball screen with Chet top of the key. They get a wide open three for Lou Dort out of it. So, like, textbook process. And Lou Dort's been shooting the shit out of the basketball in this series. Dort misses the three. So instead of being like, we ran good process, got a great shot. Let's go back to it. They went right down the floor on the next possession. Shea didn't see the ball they were. The way they went through J Dub and it's like, I get it, like J Dub was having success, he was attacking NE Smith and having some success. But like by far the most reliable action for the Thunder in the series has been Shea attacking Turner and ball screens at the level. They get great stuff out of it every single time. And I didn't think they ran it nearly enough in the fourth quarter. And that's the thing with young basketball players. They struggle to identify what's working and replicate it and identify what's not working and get away from it. And so I do think there was a little bit of an execution misstep in that fourth quarter. Looking forward in the series again, as we talk about, as series progress, the low hanging fruit stuff becomes harder and harder to come by. You know, unless you're playing the Knicks and suddenly they play their worst transition defense and overall details game in, game six, that's kind of unusual. But most, for the most part, teams kind of get a little better at identifying and staying in front of that stuff as series progresses. As the series progresses. And then actions get snuffed out, right? And so all of a sudden it becomes what are your reliable, unguardable actions? What are the things you can run that are guaranteed to generate you a good shot in the half court because they don't have a good option to defend it. And I think Oklahoma City has a really reliable action that they can go to to generate a good shot. And it's that Shay high ball screen with Miles Turner where they're just consistently getting four on threes out of it. I'm not sure Indy has established any one single action that reliable. It's been kind of different stuff in every different part of the game. It's very much like a flow and a rhythm that Indiana gets that involves everybody. So I still would make Oklahoma City a favorite to win the series at this point. But to be clear, we have officially entered into the Pacers have a great chance to win this series territory. That's where we're at now. You know, we always talk about like, you gotta take it one game at a time. All the stuff that you hear in press conferences when teams are just saying all the, the meaningless platitudes that we hear, but it's true. It's one game at a time, right? You play again on Friday, if you beat the Thunder on Friday, you're in excellent position to win the series. It's two days off. Between every game. From that point forward, you will have two days off. Between game five and game six back in Indiana and that city will be on fire. And you win one game in game six, suddenly you win the championship. So everything centers around Friday. Win Friday. The pathway is there for you to win the series. All of a sudden I think I'd make you a favorite if you win on Friday. So it is incredibly achievable. You did the job. You did the job to this point. You stole home court advantage and you won one of your home games. It's win two home games and the trophy is yours. It is right there for the taking. But as it, you know that expression that like in baseball that momentum is only as strong as your next night starting pitcher. The point being, like, it doesn't matter if you've won five games in a row or four games in a row. It doesn't matter, you know what positive momentum you've built up. If the next dude who comes to town has like a 102 mile an hour 2 seamer that he keeps down in the zone and no one can hit and he counters it with a slider that everyone's swinging out of their shoes, even though it lands, you know, 18 inches outside of the strike zone. Like if that is what's happening and your dudes are all swinging out of their shoes and they can't make contact. No one cares about your momentum. No one cares about what kind of like, like vibe you've got going in the dugout, right? Similarly, in the NBA, momentum is only as strong as like, can you score against Oklahoma City's defense when they really, really tighten the screws. And as we saw in the third quarter in particular, they can tighten the screws on this Pacers team and cause problems for them. I think they only had 20 points in that quarter and it was a lot of the same stuff we saw in game two, like super intense closeouts that were kind of shaking Indiana spot up shooters. They went really cold. There is a, there is a level that Oklahoma City can get to athletically and I believe that they will reach that point in game four, understanding the desperation of the situation for the majority of that game. And so I think it's going to be a much, much tougher game to win. And in that setting, Oklahoma City has this really reliable action they can go to at the top of the key to get great shots. Not to mention just Shay ISO is a relatively reliable action in this matchup. And so it's going to be tough. That's the challenge. That game four is going to be the toughest game of the series by far for the Pacers. I absolutely think they can win it. I absolutely think they have a great chance to win this series. But at this point, I think Oklahoma City's defense at its ceiling has proven to be a little bit better than Indiana's. And I think they have a reliable action that they can go to. I think Oklahoma City is going to win game four, win game five, and then win one of the next two games. So I'm going to stick with Oklahoma City in six or seven. But the Pacers have done exactly what we hoped they would do. They have put themselves in a position to win this series coming into the series, despite it being one of the most substantial favorites in recent NBA history. So shout out to the Pacers for making this an entertaining series. One last note on that action. We talked about that high ball screen attacking Turner in space. I want to dive into this action just a tiny bit further for just a couple minutes and then we'll be done. So why would you bring a big up to the level? You bring a big up to the level to dissuade a pull up shooter. So like, let's say you're playing Steph, you don't want him coming off of screens and shooting pull up three. So you need someone at the level that can kind of like take away that shot, right? Or two to take away the Runway, right? So like athletic guards that are really good dribble drive guys, a lot of times you'll show at the level just so that they can't curl the screen and get going. They curl the screen and run into somebody before they can get their momentum. And so it's like stops them from giving dribble penetration, right? Or three to blitz, get the ball out of their hands, right? But the problem that the Pacers are having in this action and the reason why these Shay ball screens with Chet and Hartenstein that attack Turner and space have been so effective is that Turner's going up to the level and he's not containing the ball and Shay's getting past him or the roll man's getting past him. The ball is getting past Turner almost every time when he gets up to the level. And so that literally defeats the purpose if you're. That defeats the purpose unless you're consistently getting the ball out of Shay's hands. But Shea himself is dribbling past Turner much of the time. Like there were a couple plays in the second half where they were more blitzy with Turner and he was super aggressive and he forced Shay to Get rid of the basketball, that's fine. At the very least, you're forcing them to play 4 on 3 without Shay in the action. But like, there's way too many examples of Turner coming up to the level and Shea just dribbling right around him. And so my thing is keep pressuring him, but if Shea's going to get past him, if the ball is going to get past him, no matter what, you might as well have him at the rim or closer to the rim. And so all I'm advocating for is just running a deeper drop coverage with Turner. Will that have its issues? Of course, now all of a sudden he's going to have to deal with someone coming downhill at him, but at least he's got length to bother at the rim. Now you're going to concede a lot of pull up mid range jump shots in drop coverage around the elbows, okay? But I'd rather give that up than some of the stuff they're getting out of these four on threes, especially when Shai himself beats the at the level coverage. And so my thing is like, don't bring Turner up to the level unless he can either contain the ball or force Shay to get rid of it. And he hasn't been able to do that in this series. So I would have him in more of a deeper drop. Or at least you're making his length a factor at the rim because again, like, that is the action. They're going to have to find a way to guard if they're going to win this series. They're going to have to find a way to guard that SGA ball screen that attacks Miles Turner in space. All right, guys, that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. We will be back tomorrow night after the final Buzzer of Game 4 of the NBA Finals. I'm incredibly excited. It'll be just me that night. Me and Jackson. We're breaking it down. We'll have a mailbag. We'll also head over to playback and take questions and watch some film. Really looking forward to game four. I will see you guys then. What's up, guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting Hoops tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it.
