Hoops Tonight - Jayson Tatum is BACK from injury for Celtics + Reaction to SGA vs. Cade MVP battle | NBA Mailbag

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (Hoops Tonight)

Episode: Jayson Tatum is BACK from injury for Celtics + Reaction to SGA vs. Cade MVP battle | NBA Mailbag
Date: March 7, 2026
Host: Jason Timpf
Source: The Volume & iHeartPodcasts

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Brief Overview

This episode of Hoops Tonight is a mailbag-focused discussion touching on big NBA storylines of the moment: Jayson Tatum's surprising return to the Boston Celtics after a serious injury, a breakdown of how team culture and talent interact for contenders, deep dives into Cam Johnson and G.I. Santos’ developmental stories, and a thoughtful MVP debate between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cade Cunningham. Jason delivers nuanced answers to listener questions on player fit, coaches in different eras, league trends, and playoff experience—grounded in a data-driven but eye-test-informed approach.

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Main Theme:

• The importance of superstar talent and team culture in championship runs
• How returning stars and developing players impact playoff outlooks
• The subtle art of truly evaluating value and MVP candidates
• Coach adaptability and league evolution across eras

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Key Discussion Points, Insights & Timestamps

1. Jayson Tatum’s Return & Its Implications for the Celtics

[02:07 – 09:51]

• Tatum’s comeback from an Achilles repair in less than 10 months is hailed as “an incredible show of resilience and dedication.”
• Jason reflects on culture versus talent:
  • “Culture is a foundational part of any perennially successful basketball program…but it only can go so far.”
• Despite Boston’s impressive metrics and statistical dominance, Jason sees their ceiling determined by star power:
  • “Ultimately you need talent.”
• Tatum is described as a difference-maker defensively (can guard centers, improve scheme versatility) and offensively (shot creation, versatility, passing).
• Notable matchup example:
  • Without Tatum, Celtics struggled against Charlotte’s drop coverage. His return solves these flexibility gaps.
• Quote:

  “Jayson Tatum comes in and provides variety and flexibility in their shot creation and variety in flexibility in their defensive scheming. And immediately it’s going to make them a lot better.” (Jason, 09:41)

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2. Mailbag: Cam Johnson Trade & Player Slumps

[14:08 – 17:32]

• Listener asks about Cam Johnson’s “competitive gene.”
• Jason owns his prior endorsement of the trade, calling it a “disaster” so far due to Johnson’s shooting woes.
• However, he credits Johnson’s work ethic and leaves the door open for postseason redemption:
  • “All you have to do is play well in the postseason, and no one’s going to give a shit what happened in February and March.”
• Michael Porter Jr. comparison highlights expectations and the thin margins of NBA trades.

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3. G.I. Santos & the Value of Role Players

[17:33 – 20:30]

• Brazilian fan asks if Santos’ rise is legitimate or product of a bad Warriors team.
• Jason praises Santos’ dependability and modern power forward skillset:
  • “He plays that power forward spot the way you’re supposed to in the modern NBA: simple and effective.”
• Compares Santos favorably (at the price) to higher-ceiling but flawed players like Rui Hachimura.
• Projects Santos as a “completely useful rotation power forward on a serious team.”

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4. Coaches Across Eras: What Really Translates?

[20:31 – 22:37]

• Core attributes: ability to get teams to “play hard and play for each other,” plus openness to change.
• Praises Greg Popovich’s willingness to abandon personal basketball dogma for strategic success:
  • “Popovich is sitting there and he’s like…‘This isn’t, in my opinion, good for the game…but this is what you got to do to win.’”
• Concludes that adaptability and leadership matter more than specific Xs and Os.

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5. Offensive vs. Defensive Evolution in the NBA

[22:38 – 29:36]

• Addresses whether the era’s evolution is driven more by offense or defense.
• Explains cyclical nature of offensive ratings:
  • “Offensive ratings go up and they go down... it's not just the schematics—there's also a physicality piece with officiating.”
• Current trend: resurgence of deep-drop coverage, as teams gamble on opponents missing from range.
• Emphasizes ongoing chess match and the “art, not science” of the game.

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6. MVP Debate: SGA vs. Cade Cunningham & Counting Stats

[31:23 – 35:21]

• Listener questions why assists are undervalued in MVP debates compared to points per game.
• Jason refuses to rely on “straight counting stats,” preferring deeper team/offensive metrics and eye test:
  • “Ultimately, basketball is more art than science. There are too many moving parts for it to be synthesized down to a single number or even a set of numbers.”
• He values how players create efficient, sustainable offense for the whole team—SGA currently superior to Cade by most meaningful measures.
• Quote:

  “How many times have you watched Cade or Shai this year and been like, ‘Man, Cade’s a better player’? It’s not something you’re thinking when you’re watching the games.” (Jason, 32:46)

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7. Youth vs. Experience: The Spurs and Playoff Trajectories

[35:22 – 39:34]

• Listener asks if the Spurs’ lack of playoff experience will limit their title chances.
• Jason says young “super teams” often hit walls until they gain experience but notes Victor Wembanyama is a uniquely unpredictable factor:
  • “There are parts of his game that don’t need playoff reps in order to be impactful. And that’s the defensive end of the floor.”
• Forecasts plausible range from second-round exit to a Finals run as “nothing is off the table for San Antonio.”

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8. Building Defenses Around Flawed Bigs: Derrick Queen Case Study

[39:35 – 41:37]

• More mailbag: Can the Pelicans build around Derrick Queen as Denver did with Jokic?
• Key difference: Jokic is a “bonafide center” and elite defensive rebounder; Queen is not.
• If Queen is to be more than a scoring bench big, he must play with a center who can both shoot and protect the rim—a rare roster formula.

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9. Jokic: Slump or Figured Out?

[41:38 – 44:29]

• Listener wonders if Nikola Jokic has been “solved” by defenses or just slumping.
• Jason breaks down Jokic’s numbers since return: dramatic drop in shooting percentages from deep, midrange, and the paint.
• Affirms belief in a turnaround:
  • “I would not overthink it. I think this is going to eventually come back around for him and I would imagine by the time we get to the postseason he’s going to look very much like Nikola Jokic.”

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Celtics’ need for star power:

  "Culture is the foundational thing that allows you to be successful year in and year out... but ultimately you need talent." (Jason, 03:29)

• On role players like G.I. Santos and NBA economics:

  "I'd much rather pay G. Santos $5 million a year than pay Rui Hachimura $18 million a year." (Jason, 19:07)

• On how coaches succeed in any era:

  "If you can get guys to play hard and play for each other…and can be open minded and willing to change... you’re going to be successful regardless of what era you’re in." (Jason, 22:13)

• On MVP evaluation:

  "Doesn't mean [Cade]’s been better at creating shots for himself or for his team. Doesn’t mean he’s better than Shai as a basketball player." (Jason, 34:24)

• On young playoff teams and Victor Wembanyama's X-factor:

  “Victor is a game breaking talent on the defensive end in a way we’ve never seen before… I can’t write them off because this Victor thing is such a strange variable.” (Jason, 38:42)

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Organizational Highlights

• This episode balances hard basketball analysis (lineup breakdowns, advanced stats) with experienced eye test perspectives, especially regarding rising and recovering stars.
• The tone is informed, conversational, confident, and occasionally self-deprecating (“I thought he'd be a slam dunk move. I've been wrong…”).
• Jason is consistent in prioritizing sustainable, repeatable skills (defensive rebounding, defensive versatility, efficient shot creation) over box score stats.

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Episode Structure & Flow (with Major Content Timestamps)

• [02:07] Opening: Tatum is back – impact for the Celtics
• [09:51] Mailbag Block 1: Cam Johnson, G.I. Santos, coaching in different eras
• [22:38] NBA Trends: Offense vs. defense, league cycles
• [31:23] MVP mailbag: SGA vs. Cade, flaws in counting stats logic
• [35:22] Young championship contenders: Spurs, playoff learning curves
• [39:35] Building around flawed defensive bigs: Derrick Queen
• [41:38] Jokic slump/defense question
• [44:29] Closing/teases, personal game excitement

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Conclusion

A dense and engaging Hoops Tonight episode in which Jason Timpf breaks down how elite talent and adaptable culture combine to make a true NBA contender, outlines the practical limits of data and the eye test in evaluating MVP-caliber players and rotational prospects, and takes a thoughtful, context-driven approach to fan questions about coaching, team-building, and playoff unpredictability. Those seeking insight on current NBA narratives—especially regarding the Celtics, Tatum, MVP races, and team construction—will find this episode both thought-provoking and accessible.

Transcript

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combination of advanced network performance, coverage layers and security features. Best Network Based on analysis by oogle speed test intelligence data 1H 2025 ooklear trademark marks use under license and reprinted with permission. The Volume. All right, welcome to HOOPS Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Friday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great end to Your week as usual. Today is mailbag day. I have a 10 pack of questions from you guys. You ever want to get questions into the mailbags, all you got to do is go to our full episodes on YouTube. Into the comments underneath, write mailbag with a colon. Write your question. That helps me sort through it when I'm looking through the comments. We'll get to them on Fridays throughout the remainder of the season. You guys know the joke before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Don't forget to like this video as well as sign up for post notifications. That helps us a lot. And then, as mentioned, drop your mailbag questions if you want to get into future mailbags. All right, let's talk some basketball now before we get to our actual mailbag questions, Jason Tatum is making his return tonight against the Dallas Mavericks an incredible show of resilience and dedication to recover as quickly as he did. I think that's less than 10 months on an Achilles repair. That's really, really impressive work behind the scenes from Jason Tatum to make it back. I just imagine for any basketball player, that's probably the most discouraging injury that you can possibly suffer. And so to keep your head down and stay focused on the work and to get through it the way that he did, I just think is super impressive. Now, I was talking about this with Colin Cowherd yesterday, but, you know, culture is a thing that I think is a foundational part of any perennially successful basketball program of any kind, whether it's in college, in high school, or in the pros. Right. Like, if you have a strong basketball culture, it's going to be the thing that helps you be competitive when, when you have a roster that's limited in one reason or another or to meet your absolute potential when you do have a lot of talent, right? Like, there's just the culture is the foundational skill, the foundational thing that allows you to be successful year in and year out. But it only can go so far. And I think that the Celtics this season have been an example of that in the sense that they've been one of the most impressive teams statistically. A lot of the metrics coming out of them are super impressive. Like I was talking. I'm going to talk a little bit about this with Wemby later. The net rating data, when you pulled players with net rating at the top of the league, it's a lot of Celtics and it's a lot of Thunder Players. The Celtics have been a team that on the scoreboard because of their strong culture, have done a lot of damage this year and they've been very successful in the standings. I view them as every bit as good as the other teams in that top tier in the East. Like I view them more or less on the same level as Cleveland or Detroit or New York. Now I, I personally have Cleveland and New York a tiny bit above them as of right this second, but that's because of the same thing that I was just discussing. I, I view this season as an incredibly impressive demonstration of the culture that Joe Missoula and Brad Stevens have built in Boston. But ultimately you need talent. One of the consistent, consistent things that has shown up for me this season, when Boston has run into certain types of defense, a certain types of opponents there the limitation in some of their personnel group starts to show up. So for instance, take the Charlotte game from Wednesday night for example. They're bigs, they were sitting back in a deep drop and they're not really fast enough to really get into some aggressive coverages out on the perimeter. Boston will have some small ball looks, especially with Tatum coming back. But like they had some scheme versatility problems against the Hornets as they just barbecued their deep drop coverage with a variety of short range, mid range jump shots, floaters, six pull up threes in that game, four of which were directly at a ball screens into, into deep drop situations. And so one of the things I noticed when I was watching that game was like this is the kind of thing that Jason Tatum used to be a solution for. You know, like a lot of teams they, their pick and roll geometry is predicated on either having a center that can roll or maybe a guard who can slip in and out of screens. And so if you can place your center on someone else, you can put the defense or the offense into a situation where they have to do a lot of things that they don't usually do. The problem is if you do that, someone else has to guard their center and if you end up with someone that's too small or physically incapable of hanging with that center, you can have all sorts of problems. On the offensive glass, certain centers will do issues or do damage to you in the post. There's a problem if you don't have someone that can guard that center. Take this Hornets matchup for example. Jason Tatum is healthy as we saw so much last year. He's physically capable of guarding opponent centers because he can keep them off the glass and he's not a significant Target as a post mismatch. Right. So if he's able to guard Musa Diabate, and I think Jason Tatum would throw most of Diabate around, he's got like a legit strength advantage there, low center of gravity advantage there. Maybe you tuck your center on a Miles Bridges. Miles Bridges, who's shooting 33% from three this year, who has specifically struggled on threes, slipping out of ball screens. All of a sudden you make the Hornets do something that they don't necessarily want to do. That is a coverage option that was unavailable to the Celtics this season because their forwards weren't big and strong enough. And so Jason Tatum coming back immediately gives you that optionality, that flexibility, that versatility in your defensive scheming because of his ability to guard centers. Not to mention, if you're going to play small ball looks, you need a really strong defensive rebounding forward somewhere in there. And Jason Tatum can play that role. The second piece of it is the shot creation element. We talked about this a lot over the course of this season in specific matchups. Like I talked about how Denver, for example, use deep drop on Jaylen Brown to cause problems. Charlotte, you know, is a mix. Diabate did some switching. Jalen had some success against those switches in the early fourth quarter. But for the most part, in drop coverage looks, Jalen was running into problems. Back pressure kind of funneling him into the lane. He was rushing things over, penetrating, missing shots around the basket. It was not a great game for Jalen Brown as a shot creator. Right. The only other option you have really, you know, is these lower level guards that on some nights have it and some nights, nope. Some. Some nights, Peyton Pritchard has it, sometimes he doesn't, Sometimes Derrick White has it, sometimes he doesn't. Putting Jason Tatum into the equation. And I don't think it'll be perfect right away. I think there will be some kind of like growing pains as they try to implement him into an offense that has such a different rhythm this year with the different kind of set of usage distribution. Right. So it won't be perfect right away, but in the long run, Jayson Tatum gives you a different vehicle with which to break down the defense, a different way to attack drop coverage, a different way to attack specific matchups on the floor. Jayson Tatum is a better passer than Jaylen Brown is. Like, you guys know how I feel. Generally speaking, as long as you guys are actually willing to take catch and shoot threes, which I think both Tatum and Brown are, this can work and everyone can coexist And I mean, they want a championship together, so we don't need to overthink that. So I just think Jason Tatum comes in and provides variety and flexibility in their shot creation and variety inflexibility in their defensive scheming. And immediately it's going to make them a lot better. Is it going to manifest in some massive improvement in the metrics that are coming out of this team? No, because they're already some of the strongest metrics in the league. All it is is going to give them a level of resilience against the upper level competition where they've had some issues. They got chewed up and spit out by Charlotte. They got their ass beat. They got chewed up and spit out by Denver. They got their ass beat there. These are teams that have, you know, Charlotte's been the best team in the league for the last, you know, since January 22nd. Denver, obviously is the team I have second in my list of championship contenders. So, like the, there's a, an upper echelon in the league that Boston's really going to need Jason Tatum for, and I'm just really glad that he's back. All right, let's get to our mailbag questions. I'm super excited to tell you guys about our partnership with Vuori. 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T Satellite available with capable device to most outdoor areas where you can see the sky Jason, thanks for all the great work. My question is, is it time to acknowledge Cam Johnson doesn't have that competitive gene to show up in big games or in the playoffs? I don't think I would go that far, but I do think it's time to acknowledge that at least to this point, at least to this point in the regular season, the Cam Johnson trade looks like a disaster. I am not trying to preach at any point here because you guys know that I advocated for this trade. This was a trade that I really liked. The specific thought process I had was pretty simple. I thought Denver was rocking two power forwards and I thought that having a small forward, a traditional small forward who has more perimeter utility, especially defensively, the ability to guard on the perimeter more and just more foot speed, it would increase the foot speed of their lineup, give them more perimeter defenders in their lineup. It wouldn't be as good of a defensive rebounder or secondary rim protector as Michael Porter Jr. But he'd be able to bring a lot of the jump shooting. And what's ended up happening is Cam just hasn't shot the ball well enough and that's really been the disaster. Say what you want. Like, even though, like I would argue that the, the like off the dribble, coming off of screens type stuff that Michael Porter Jr. Did, Cam has kind of made up for with those things, meaning the, the foot speed, the perimeter defense, things along those lines. Cam Johnson has been a very useful player for Denver this year. He just hasn't had anything close to Michael Porter Jr's upside. And then when you add into that the fact that he hasn't been able to hit a catch and shoot jumper, it's been a disaster. So like, we don't need to overthink this. You send out a first round pick for a player that you expect to be an upgrade, and instead he's been a downgrade. Of course it's been a disaster to this point. However, it's not over. All I mean by that is the thing with shooting slumps is eventually you get out of them, especially if you're working hard behind the scenes and you're staying strong. And Cam, by all indications from everybody I talk to, is working his butt off and doing everything he can to get out of the shooting slump. And all you have to do is go into a postseason series and have a big game in a big spot, hit a couple of big shots, and guess What? Michael Porter Jr. Did hit a lot of catch and shoot threes, did put up better numbers, did have all this utility as a secondary rim protector and defensive rebounder. But guess what? In the big spots against Oklahoma City, he couldn't hit a catch and shoot three. So all of it didn't matter because he couldn't hit a catch and shoot three against Oklahoma City, which is why they traded him, right? So like, Cam has the, like. I'm not going to sit here and pretend and, and try to propagandize this idea that Cam Johnson's been good when he hasn't. He's been a disappointment. There's no way around it. He's been a disappointment. I thought he'd be a slam dunk move. I've been wrong to this point. But all you have to do is play well in the postseason and no one's going to give a shit what happened in February and March. So the. It's incumbent on Cam to just continue to put that work in and to get ready for this postseason run. And if he can make an impact in that stage, no one will give a damn. No one will be talking about Michael Porter Jr. Anymore. Next question. Hey, Jason. Love the show. As a Brazilian, I've been really surprised by GI Santos's play this season. He made a big leap and got a new contract. I think he's been a very competent role player. He crashes the offensive glass, shoots the three effectively, plays hard on defense and can dribble and pass. Have you been watching Golden State games? What do you think of him? Can he become an important player on a contender in a winning context? Or is he just getting those numbers because the warriors are a bad team right now? I had been tuned out on Golden State for a little bit, but I went on sports radio in the Bay Area I think yesterday or the day before and so I did a bunch of prep for that and I ended up catching up on a bunch of the warriors games that I had been missing. And here's the thing. I like G.I. santos a lot. He plays that power forward spot in the way you're supposed to in the modern NBA. Simple and effective. He rebounds very well. He has a career eight rebounds per 36 minutes. That's an outstanding number. He's a good catch and shoot player who's equally proficient both when he's wide open and under duress. He's about 39% in both cases this season, about 60 reps in both cases this season. So I love that balance when you're not just taking the open ones, you're taking both and you're able to hit both. He cuts baseline when the opening is there. He's been over a cut per game this season. He makes good decisions in the middle of the floor when he's driving closeouts or when he's slipping out of screens. Like all of this stuff is just basic things that make a huge difference at that power forward spot when you're playing alongside stars because again, you're functioning as a cog. You're not relied upon to break down the defense. He's been an attentive defender that does his job. Like the simplest way I could describe it to warriors fans is like I'd much rather pay G. Santos 5 million a year than pay Rui Hachimura 18 million a year. And they play the same position. Ru's a better wide open three point shooter. Like he shoot shooting over 50% on wide open threes, but he only shoots when he's wide open. You can chase him off the line with a hard closeout. He does have a mid range jump shot that he can go to. Like Ruiz got a, you know, Rui will have nights where he's hitting everything and there's a, see a certain ceiling there, but he only shoots when he, when he's wide open he can be chased off the line or played into misses when he's against like really good defenses or in big playoff spots. He's a. Rui is a terrible rebounder for his position and he's incredibly prone to defensive mistakes. And so with Ghee, you know you're, it's a lower ceiling type of option but you, you're paying a tiny fraction of it and there's actually a possession to possession dependability that matters more when it comes to the winningest levels of basketball in the NBA. Last thing with Ghee he's shown me quite a bit this year putting the ball on the floor in. In situations where he's had to. He kind of like in sometimes in ISO situations, the warriors will be running off ball action. You know, Steph will be running off of a screen or something and he will just rip through and on the rip through, he'll beat his man and then he'll like kind of body him and knock him off his base and be able to get to little scoop shots or finger rolls around the basket. He's got a little bit of utility off the bounce that I think is going to continue to get better. I think his playmaking chops are stronger than most role players that you'll see in this phase of their development. Just I think he projects to be a guy who can be a completely useful rotation power forward on a serious team. And I think that getting that on the margins the way that Golden State did is just a testament to their culture and the types of guys that they continue to find year in and year out. Next question. We talk a lot about the hypotheticals of players playing in different eras. What about coaches? Do you think all the great coaches could coach in any era? Is there any past coaches you think that would be even more exceptional now? Love the show and excited to hear your thoughts. Thanks for. Thank you for supporting the show. So I think that there are certain things that work in any era, no matter what. Like I would say the motivational part of it, like, this is boring because it's not really something that has a lot of tangible subject matter to discuss in terms of, you know, X's and O's or basketball philosophies. But when a coach is able to get buy in from his team just on a very basic level in terms of like playing hard, I would, I would add to that, like, selflessness getting guys to believe in each other and believe in the roles that they have and to play for each other and to set individual goals aside in the pursuit of team goals. Play like all of that stuff, I think is like, it's independent of the era that you're playing. And that's just a fundamental basketball or fundamental coaching thing that matters in basketball matters in football. It matters in any team sport out there in the world. Can you get your guys to play hard and can you get them to play for each other? And so I think that part, I think, is indiscriminate of the eras, but the part of it that I think is important in terms of transitioning between eras or being a Coach that has a skill set that translates between eras comes down to being open minded and willing to embrace change and paying attention to league wide trends. The best example I can think of with this is Greg Popovich. There was a phase there with The spurs about 10 years ago where they were shooting a ton of threes, just a shit ton of threes compared to the rest of the league. And he was interviewed about it and Popovich is sitting there and he's like, I don't like this. He's like, I don't like shooting a ton of threes. Like, this isn't in my opinion good for the game of basketball, but this is what you got to do to win. It's a simple math problem, right? And like that's the thing. Greg Popovich had that basketball philosophy, but he wasn't stubbornly tied to that. He was willing to read the room, pay attention to what was happening around the rest of the league and make a change in his approach that gave him a better chance to win. And so I'd argue in this era, it's the possession battle, it's emphasis on ball pressure, emphasis on corner crashing, emphasis on running your lanes in transition to get easy opportunities there. Like all of the little things that can increase your possession margin that give you a better chance to win. If you're a coach, that's not finding you like, and that doesn't mean every team can do that. Like I, it wouldn't matter if you got, you know, the greatest coach in the history of world of the world that could ever be conceived. If you put them in charge of the Los Angeles Lakers, they're not going to go force a ton of turnovers. They don't have the personnel for it. Right. But like every coach needs to be sitting down and looking at their roster, looking at what they're good at, what they're bad at and being like, where can I generate margin? Where can I generate, you know, two or three extra possessions a game that might give me a better chance to win outside of just the static half court environment? So again, I think, I think it's, it's just a combination of can you get guys to play hard and play for each other and can you be open minded and willing to change as the league changes around you? If it's those two things, I think that you're, you're going to be successful regardless of what era you're in. And I think all of the top coaches in the NBA kind of fall into that category. There's a lot of talk about offense being better than ever. But defensive schemes are also more sophisticated than ever. Which one do you think has a harder time adjusting to the other? Is it harder for offenses to find new ways to score against those new defensive schemes, or is it harder for defenses to find ways to stop the offensive talent that we have in our league now? In a sense, is the evolution of the game more dictated by offensive development or defensive development? This is a really good question. I would argue that it's gone back and forth throughout NBA history. This is something I've talked about in the, on the show in the distant past. It's been years since I've talked about it. But the sea, just to give you some perspective, as you look at NBA history, offensive ratings go up and they go down and they go up and they go down. Now in the big picture, they're still trending upwards because of the fact that the three point shot has just undergone this massive inflation in attempts. And it's just a simple math problem that early generations of the NBA could never hope to keep up with. Right. But inside of that trend, they're still up and down the season. This season, the league average for offensive rating is 115.3. So if you took all 30 NBA teams and you just added all their possessions and all their points, what would be their points per 100 possessions? 115.3. That's the highest ever in the recorded history of the league. But it's kind of starting to plateau. I think we're getting ready to have a downturn. I would not be surprised if that happened in the next year or two. So we're still on the way up. But it does go back and forth so famously. It peaked about 17 years ago. In 2009, it peaked right around like 108. And then it went through a decline phase and it went down for several years. It peaked back in 1995, peaked I think right around like 105 if I remember correctly. And then it declined for several years. So like it is part of that process around the NBA is I, I, it's not just the schematics. So like part of it is like offensive schemes go one way, defensive schemes respond, or defensive schemes enter the equation and offenses struggle for a little while, but then they respond one of those two. But there's also like a physicality piece with officiating. I think that as the league starts to trend towards really high scoring totals, I think there's phone calls that take place from Adam Silver or David Stern in the distant past where it's like, hey, can we tighten this up a little bit? Make it a little, like, make it a little more physical. All of a sudden, offensive ratings go down. And then sometimes I think it gets too stuck in the mud. And you have times like the early 2000s, where David Stern's making a very different phone call, and it's like, hey, like, we can't be having dudes grabbing and holding every offensive player. The game is too ugly and low scoring. We need to open it up. So, like, it's a combination of the officiating and the schematics, but ultimately, like, it's just that. It's that battle of. Of. Of schematic proficiency, right? So, like, you know, you have a team that's switching well. The offense gets really good at hunting your smaller or slower defenders. Okay, well, now that you're good at hunting smaller or slower defenders, the really good defenses get good at pre switching or scram switching different things to get guys out of those matchups, or they get really good at doubling and gapping to make the floor feel smaller than it is. And then with the doubling and the gapping, you have teams working on things like pin and flares and different ideas to try to create openings out of. Out of what is a very difficult defensive coverage to go against. Right? So, like, that battle is constantly going back and forth. It'll always go back and forth. But, like, I think we're seeing kind of a renaissance of deep drop coverage this year. Like, really deep drop coverage this year, because teams are realizing that actually, like, on many nights, guys just won't make enough shots against the deep drop coverage to beat you. And so, like, I. I've seen a lot more of that, particularly this season. So, like, there's always going to be that kind of chess match back and forth going between the two sides, and it'll always kind of go up and down as the two sides react to. To each other mixed in with the physicality that the referees allowed. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. Florida's sportsbook march is here, and that means college basketball takes center stage. The stakes are rising, the shots are falling, and now's the time to hit the hardwood with Hard Rock Bet. With hoops on every night. Every night is a shot to build the same game, parlay and score a major bucket. If you ever miss, tip off of that big game. Don't worry. 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[Chelsea Handler]

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[Jason]

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[Lavar Arrington]

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[Jason]

Hey Jason, why don't you think assists get as much importance in MVP conversations as point per game? Player like Shay averages six more points per game than Cade, but Kate averages three more assists per game so wouldn't that mean they contribute the same number of points? But Cade gets his team more involved AKA more valuable to his team. So I don't really look at just straight counting stats very much at all. I tend to think that they are a product of playstyle and usage distribution and all these like different things. I look at a lot of like play type data like how efficient is a Cade pick and roll on a points per possession basis? How efficient is a Shea Gilders Alexander pick and roll on a per possession basis? Those are usually the kinds of things I look at or like team wide stats. Like your job as a as a offensive engine is to create offense for your entire team, right? It's not just to create offense for yourself. I've been critical about this specifically with with Luka this season. Like there are times where I feel like Luke is putting up his numbers but it's not necessarily leading to success team wide in the in the goal of the team to generate as much as much team offense as possible. I'm pulling up the pick and roll efficiency numbers right now. So like for example Shay, when Shay runs a ball screen it's worth 1.12 points per possession including passes. When Cade runs a a ball screen it's worth 1.03 points per possession including passes. Now that gets a little bit more complicated because the the the off ball personnel is different for so there's no hard or fast rule. I say talk about this all the time with the some of the the people that I've debated about analytics with. I've talked to people who have NBA like actual media votes who are like oh I have to use numbers because otherwise my biases will get in the way. And I'm like, that would make sense if the numbers actually were like a harder fast rule to interpret the value of a basketball player, but it's just not. Ultimately, basketball is more art than science. Ultimately, there are too many moving parts for it to be synthesized down to a single number or even a set of numbers. And so I. The data has value, but I'm always going to trust my eyes. And like, just very simply, how many times have you watched Cade or Shay this year and been like, man, Cade's a better player than Shea. It's not something you're thinking when you're watching the two games. Kate's having an incredible season. To your point about the mvp, like, I think there's a version of this. Actually, I'll skip ahead to another question because it mentions this specifically. Big fan and watching from Australia. Is it just me or is Kate Cunningham's MVP hype really overrated? That's twice in the last two weeks he's been taken completely out of the game with good game plans. Harden had a terrible game by his standards, and still the Cavs looked well in control with no Donovan. So that's the thing, like I talked about with Cade, like there was a chance for him to get MVP right around the All Star break. If he would have come out and just kicked everyone's ass the rest of the season averaged like 28 point triple double and like 62% true shooting and the Pistons finished with the best record in the league. I think Cade would have had a case. But ultimately you have to play the games and when you play the games, Cade's had some bad games, particularly against teams that can really protect the rim and they could put big physical perimeter defenders on him. What'll happen with Cade? He's in this phase of his career right now that you see with a lot of stars where they're really putting out wow performances. The big picture numbers look really good. The team success is there, but there's the lack of like the really refined stuff you need to succeed at the highest levels. That usually comes a few years later. That's kind of where we're at with Cade. Like, Shay's numbers look more or less the same as they have as efficiency has gone up with the addition of the three point shot this year. But with Shea, it's, it's, it's less about the big picture numbers or even the team success. The Thunder haven't been as good as they were last year, but what it comes down to is in any big game, Shay just looks so in command and in control. He's like, he'll have bad games, but they're so much more rare than they used to be. And like, you, like, if you were going into a big, let's say that you have like a Thunder, a big game. Game five between the Thunder and, you know, some second round opponent like Houston. And you go into the game or do you go into that game thinking like, man, I wonder if Shea's gonna have it tonight. Like, no, you're like, Shay's probably going to have it tonight because he's just, he's seems to have figured out so much over the years. He's, he's clicked into a different phase of his career in terms of confidence and, and consistency. Cade, big game five, you're like, man, like, maybe he'll be great, maybe he won't, right? I grew up as a LeBron fan. That was how I felt in his first cav stint. I was like, I wonder if LeBron's going to have it tonight. Right towards the, like, by 2015, 2016. I used to talk about it all the time. Like, like, like there was no safer Bet in the NBA to play great in a big game than LeBron. It was just like, big playoff game tonight. LeBron's gonna have at least a 28, 8 and 8. And he's gonna be efficient and he's gonna look like the best player on the floor and he's gonna look in complete command and control of everything. Even if they lose, there's just like a, a level of consistency that you get to when you reach that later phase. So to make a long story short, yeah, Cade's averaging more assists than Shay this year. Doesn't mean he's been better at creating shots for himself or for his team. Doesn't mean he's better than Shay as a basketball player. Doesn't mean K can't win MVP one day. It's just going to be a little while. He's got some stuff he's got to figure out before then. While the spurs are clearly an elite regular season team, it would be unprecedented for them to win a championship with a small amount of playoff experience on this roster. Do you believe this is a factor that will hinder their ability to be actually a threat to win the championship this year? So what happens with these kinds of teams is you, you end up looking at the discussion and you go, okay, they have all this, the, the things that you would want to see with A championship contender. Like let's go back to 2024 OKC, like number one overall seed. Shay looks like one of the best players in the world. All the role players are putting it together, really strong net rating data, like all these really strong indicators, right? But there's an age kind of like inexperience factor that you want to consider. And so what ends up happening, they get into the postseason, they run into an older, veteran, more experienced gold Dallas Matt, excuse me, Dallas Mavericks team. Luke has already been on a conference finals run. Kyrie Irving is literally been to the NBA Finals four times and won a championship in 2016. Like they're better, they're more comfortable. They, they end up getting out of there with the win, right? But then OKC the following year, off of the experience that they gained in that season, even though they won seed, they come back the next season, they kick everyone's ass to the runaway one seed, they end up winning the championship. And even with their youth, they still flirted with disaster against Denver and Indiana, right? So with San Antonio, like they're going to be the 2 seed this year, this is that they're in there like OKC 2024 season, they're super talented. It's abundantly clear that their star is super legit as like a foundational guy who can win a championship. All the metrics that you want to see, offense, defense, rebounding, controlling margins, all that kind of stuff, everything looks good. But they're young. And so that's what leads you to believe that they're likely headed to something like a second round exit. But the one thing I'll say that makes this spurs team a little different, Victor Waymanyama doesn't resemble any other young player that came before. There are parts of his game that don't need experience. There are parts of his game that don't need playoff reps in order to be impactful. And that's the defensive end of the floor. I was looking at these numbers the other day because I think underdog ended up tweeting them out and I thought it was really fascinating. They had a tweet where they just listed all of the top net ratings in the league among players. Of the top eight, seven of them were Celtics or Thunder players. And then fifth on that list was Victor Wembanyama. Victor is a game breaking talent on the defensive end of the four in a way that we've never seen before. So while all those things I said about young teams are true, I wouldn't be surprised if San Antonio won The title this year. I can't, I can't write them out or write them off because this Victor thing is such a strange variable. It's such a different variable. So like, honestly, it's really this simple to me. I could see them losing in the second round. I don't think they'll lose a first round series. Cause they'll get a play in team and I think they'll beat whoever gets at it. Like even if it's the Clippers, I think the spurs will beat the Clippers. But like whatever they get out of the, once they get out of the first round, whoever they play in the second round, I could see them losing there. I could see them beating Oklahoma City in the conference finals and making it to the finals and you know, losing to the Knicks or beating one of the other Eastern Conference teams. Like there's really not a playoff outcome with San Antonio this year that I feel off the table. Whereas with other examples of young teams, like take Charlotte for example. Charlotte's been the best team in the league for the last month and a half. You know, like Charlotte just kicked Boston's ass. But if Charlotte played Boston in a playoff series, I'd pick Boston because Charlotte is good as they are. They don't have a Victor Webman Yama game breaking type of talent. They're just a really good young team. And really good young teams tend to run into really good veteran teams and get beat when they get to the postseason. Two more Jason, Is it possible for the Pelicans to build a defense around Derrick Queen in the same way that the Nuggets have built a defense around Jokic? If not, will, will Queen ever be able to truly be an effective star or all star with the holes in his defense? So the big difference between Derek Queen and Nicole Jokic is there is the lack of the strong defensive foundation that comes from Jokic's defensive rebounding. So Jokic is such a good defensive rebounder and he's such a big body that like he's a bonafide center. And there's a way to build around a bona fide center with his defensive limitations, and that's usually with a big athletic forward behind him, a guy like Aaron Gor Gordon that can operate as the other side of the bracket in his pick and roll coverages, right? Like a guy who can be a secondary rim protector who could be a low man when Nicole Jokic comes up to the level. Those are all the things that work. But Jokic is just an unbelievable defensive rebounder. That's a really strong defensive trade. He's also a very high IQ defender. Derek Queen could become a very high IQ defender. He's never going to be a good enough defensive rebounder, I think, for that to be the one thing he's great at on defense. And so I think if your goal is to view Derek Queen as a legitimate like foundational player, not like a backup center who can kill teams for 15 minutes a night, but like a real foundational player, I think he's got to be alongside a guy who can both shoot threes and protect the rim. Like he's got to essentially play the four and like think more like Carl Anthony Towns. Right? Carl Anthony Towns is the guy that you're looking at in that specific case. But that's hard to do. It's really hard to find a rim protecting center that can really shoot. Like we're talking about Victor women, Yama and Chet and then Kristaps Porzingis who can't stay healthy. You know, like there's very few of these guys in the league and most of them are considered, all of them are considered stars when they're healthy. So it's just, it's just going to be really hard from that specific standpoint. But the, there's always that opportunity for him as a bench guy who can score in, in bunches and short shifts off the bench against units that are smaller and don't have the same issues that starting lineups present. Just going to be really hard for him to anchor as a five because I don't think he's a good enough defensive rebounder. Last question. Has the problem of how to guard Jokic been solved? Sandwich him, grapple him, hold onto him, knowing you won't get many foul calls or do you think there's a way that you can work around it? And yes, I do concede that he's flopping a lot. Thanks for having a great show. As always. Thanks for supporting the show. I don't think he's been solved. I just think he's in a really bad shooting slump and the numbers are actually crazy. So since he came back from his injury, he's shooting just 24% from 3, shooting just 40% from mid range and he's shooting 49% on non restricted area twos. So like in the paint. So like short range shots, floaters, hooks, things along those lines. Typically like before all that, he's about 45% from three, he's about 55% from mid range and he's like 65% on those non restricted area, paint two. So like we're talking about a dramatic shooting slump from Nicole Jokic. I would not overthink it. I think this is going to eventually come back around for him and I would imagine that by the time we get to the postseason he's going to look very much like Nicola Jokic. I'm recording this on Thursday. I'm actually going tonight to Lakers Nuggets, which I'm very, very excited about, sitting a couple rows behind the Lakers bench. And I've been to three NBA games before, but they were all kind of lower profile games. It was a, a random Pelican Suns game back in the day when Anthony Davis was with the Pelicans. AD got a game winner in that game, like an offensive rebound put back. I saw Kyrie Irving's first game back from his patellar injury in the year that they won the title in 2016. It's actually in December of 2015. It was before, before Ty Lue became the coach and Kyrie's first game back. He didn't really play great, but he ended up hitting a huge clutch three off of the left wing. And then I watched LeBron in the, in the Cavs in 2017 in Charlotte against a really bad Hornets team. LeBron went off for like 38 points and hit a bunch of threes. It was a big game from him there. But so like the three games I've been to are, are like, like either two bad teams playing or LeBron Cavs teams playing against bad teams. So like tonight I'm going to get to see, you know, two of the best teams in the Western Conference, at least by record. I think the Lakers kind of stick out like a sore thumb. But two of the best teams in the Western Conference, I don't think either team's gonna be able to guard each other. The star power is going to be crazy. Luka Lebron, Nicole Jokic, Jamal Murray, the crowd should be insane. Both teams really, really need this game. The Nuggets have been slipping for a while. The Lakers desperately need to win against a good team. So like, I'm really, really excited to go watch that. I know you guys are hearing this on Friday, so you already know what happens, but I will be, I'll be going on, for those of you guys listening to the mailbag, I'll be going on with the Lakers collective guys at 11am Pacific on Friday today. So you'll get to hear my reaction to the game then and I'll also talk about it in more detail when we get to Monday. But thanks as always for supporting the show guys. I will see you guys on Monday for our Power Rankings. Have a great weekend.

[Chelsea Handler]

This is Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea, after the Big Game. Like most people, I kept thinking about the commercials and there was one that stayed with me. It was from the Blue Square Alliance Against Hate, and it wasn't loud or flashy. It showed a Jewish kid being targeted at school and another student who chose not to ignore it. As someone who was Jewish, that moment felt very real to me. Not dramatic, just familiar. And what struck me was how clearly it showed that hate doesn't always announce itself, but the impact is still huge. If you saw the Blue Square spot during the Big Game, it's worth thinking about. And if you want to show support, sharing the Blue Square is one small way to do that. Think Verizon is expensive? Think again. Anyone can bring their AT and T or T mobile bill to a Verizon store today and we'll give you a better deal. So bring us your bill. Walking, running, Hogo, sticking, Teleport. If you can ride on the back of a rollerblading yak or flyin on the wings of a majestic falcon. Any way, you can bring your AT and T or T mobile bill to a Verizon store today and we'll give you a better deal on the best Network based on RouteMetric's best overall mobile network performance US 2nd/2025 all rights reserved. Must provide a very recent postpaid consumer mobile bill in the name of the person redeeming the deal. Additional terms, conditions and restrictions apply.

[Jason]

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[Lavar Arrington]

that happen along the way.

[Jason]

Because when people are the destination, your ride is important. Learn [e-mail] and find find the vehicle that fits your people.

[Chelsea Handler]

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[Jason]

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