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Hoops Tonight - Jimmy Butler to Warriors Reaction: Steph Curry & Golden State ready for playoff run?
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Justin Penik
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Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing With a Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Justin Penik
What's up everyone? It's Justin Penik from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week. On Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays, breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast and you will be glad you did.
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I'm also working on a bigger trade deadline reaction that I planned on doing tonight, but I'm actually pushing till tomorrow morning. We want to talk Fox to the Spurs, Levine to the Bulls. I want to talk Kuzma to the Bucks. I have more thoughts on Luca to the Lakers and just whether or not they should feel some more urgency in the short term. I'm going to get into all of that in tomorrow morning's episode tonight. Just hitting Jimmy to the Warriors. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at_jason lt so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast fee wherever you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating and a review on that front. We also have brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. We're releasing content throughout the year. Make sure you guys follow us there. And last but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube comments so that we can hit them on Fridays throughout the remainder of the year. All right, let's talk some basketball. So there's still a bunch of details getting worked out, but from what I can tell, the warriors are getting Jimmy Butler. Jimmy's agreed to a two year, $121 million contract extension as part of the deal. The Heat are getting Andrew Wiggins and PJ Tucker. Looks like maybe Kyle Anderson. It looked like he was originally heading to the Raptors, but now he's not. They're also getting a protected first round pick. There are some other moving parts. Looks like Dennis Schroeder's getting rerouted to the Jazz. Lindy Waters is getting rerouted to the Pistons, I think. Not sure where where Kyle Anderson is going. It looks like he might stay with the Heat, but the gist of it is Wiggins in a protected first round pick to the Heat. Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors. The warriors finally did it. They finally brought in a legit secondary star to play alongside Steph Curry. There's been this weird energy surrounding the warriors all year, one that I've disagreed with and that I've pushed back with a pushback against a lot on this show, which is that they're just a bad team. And I've watched a lot of bad NBA teams and to me, the warriors aren't one of them. They're well coached, they play super hard. They're led by a top 15 player in the league. They have a top 10 defense. They're super deep with role player talent. I was looking at this earlier with the recent play of Guy Santos and Quinton post. I've counted 15 different players this year that have played quality minutes for the warriors at various times during the year. You can actually push that up to 16 if you want to count D'Anthony Melton. They've reached some really high highs. According to Cleaning the Glass, they have 11 wins this year against teams that are in the top 10 in point differential. That's the third most in the entire NBA. They have a win against the Celtics. They have two wins against the Houston Rockets. They have two wins against the Memphis Grizzlies. They have two wins against Oklahoma City Thunder. But there's a through line. There's a consistency in that story. In all but one of those wins against Boston, Houston, Memphis and Oklahoma City, and all but one of them, they scored at least 115 points. They can beat anybody, but they have to score the basketball. In fact, here's another crazy stat for you. The warriors are 20 and 6 this year when they score at least 110 points, not 120, not some crazy high number. When they hit just a baseline of 110 points. 26. They are 5 and 18 when they fail to score 110 points. When the warriors score, they can beat anyone. But the problem is they only have one reliably good offensive player on the entire roster. That's Steph Curry. And yes, his production has been inconsistent this year, but he still gets guarded like Steph Curry. So even on the nights where Steph isn't hitting shots and isn't putting up the numbers he normally puts up, he's still regularly impacting the game offensively in a positive way every single night. Because of his gravity, because of the way he's guarded. Everyone else is like a maybe they'll have it tonight kind of guy, right? Buddy Healed has shot 25% or worse from three in 22 games this year. Andrew Wiggins has hit 20 points 17 times, but he's failed to hit 15 points 13 times. So there's a lot of good Wiggins and there's a lot of games where he just doesn't bring anything offensively. And then Jonathan Kaminga has been just as likely to score 20 or more in a game this year as he is to score 12 or fewer. That's inconsistent, but that's not their fault. We've never considered Buddy Heel to be this consistently good offensive player. We've never considered Andrew Wiggins to be a legit second option outside of that one year that him and Jordan Poole kind of combined to fill that role when they won the title. Jonathan Kaminga is 22 years old. It's completely irrational to expect those guys to be consistent producers on the offensive end of the floor. All of those guys are being asked to do something that's, frankly, above their pay grade. They're role players. And role players are always going to have dramatic highs and lows when it comes to, like, the. The grind of the regular season, because the. The consistently great offensive players are not role players. They're stars. And yeah, on the nights when all those guys play well and they hit their shots, they have a top 10 defense and they're led by Steph Curry. So, yeah, they can beat anybody. That's why I was clamoring for this type of deal. You have this short little window here where you have Steph Curry on your team, a generational talent that you might never have again. You might literally never have this guy again. Think about the way the Luka Doncic trade was discussed over the course of the last few days. You want. You want to know why? Mavs fans were pissed? They're like, we might never have a player like Luka Doncic ever again in the history of the franchise, and they feel like they punted him. Obviously a little bit different circumstance in terms of the. The timeline. But the point is, is like, you have one of those guys in Steph Curry, you might never have that guy again or anything even close to him potentially. You don't just get to have top tier superstars. How many of them are there in this league? Four, maybe five? They're exceedingly rare. You had to give him a fighting shot, at least give him a chance. Even though it was risky, even though it cost you a draft pick. You were destined for a rebuild after this era anyway. You might as well go out with Steph playing in meaningful basketball games while you still get to enjoy Steph playing in meaningful basketball games. Let's start with the Jimmy Butler angle on this first, and then we'll talk about the rest of the roster. Jimmy hasn't played in the playoffs since 2023 because of that fluky injury he suffered in the playing game, if you guys remember. But he was a consensus top 10 player in the league at that point, and he's kind of uniquely viewed as one of the few guys in the league that raises his level of play when he gets to the postseason. I've talked about this before. It's a very simple set of circumstances in my opinion. He's big, strong, and fast, which means as things get more intense athletically, he can thrive in that setting. And then he's super versatile, meaning whatever the challenge is that's presented him, he can kind of shape shift and fill different roles to whatever his team needs. And as a result, he just has a higher floor. He can change whatever he needs for that specific matchup. So there's less situations where his talent doesn't match up and more situations where his talent does match up to the circumstances. And so he's able to play well now. He had this ugly falling out with the Miami Heat, and that's classic Jimmy. We've seen it before, but I expect him to come into Golden State and immediately lock back in as a member of the team. And just before we get into some of the fit, it's just real talent. Upside, he's still probably one of the top 15 players in the league you'd want to have on your team in a playoff series, that's an automatic influx of talent. So now let's talk about his fit with the team. He's going to have to immediately fill two roles. He's going to have to fill that Andrew Wiggins role of that primary perimeter defender. But he's also going to have to fill that Dennis Schroeder role. In terms of the guy that's got to be their secondary shot crater when Steph is on the floor and have to lead units when Steph is off the floor. He's going to have to be their primary perimeter defensive weapon against the wings of the Western Conference. Now he is capable of that. Like guys, his last playoff series that he played in was in the finals and in game two, he was like the only guy I watched in that playoff run that actually made Jamal Murray look uncomfortable. The job he did chasing over the top, Jimmy and Bam together, actually managing to beat that Denver team once when no one else seemed to be able to beat him. Right. Except for Phoenix. So like it's. We've seen him doing an excellent job guarding players on the perimeter in the playoffs. I think in the regular season he'll be a slight downgrade from Andrew Wiggins, but in high leverage spots he's still one of the best defensive players in the league. But then he's also going to have to fill that shot creation role that Dennis filled. This is where I view him as a massive upgrade like Andrew Wiggins I view with in such high esteem on the defensive end of the floor. And a big part of Andrew's. A big part of Jimmy's ability to make this trade worth it will be his ability to fill the shoes that Andrew Wiggins leaves open on the defensive end of the floor. But I do think Jimmy has that talent and that ability. It's more just about commitment and his willingness to do that amount of work. But I think at least in the postseason context, it's something that I think Jimmy's going to be able to live up to. I think he's just a massive upgrade over any sort of offensive weapon that this team had. Last year he was one of the best matchup attacking players in the NBA. Of the 24 players who ran at least, who ran at least 300 ISOs last year, he ranked third in efficiency at 1.13 points per possession including passes. He was over a point per possession on almost 200 post ups. He was over 50% or just, just under 50, excuse me, on floaters and hooks. Very gifted passer, similar to what I was talking about earlier with Steph. Even on the nights when Steph isn't hitting shots, he's still creating shots with the way that he's guarded. Jimmy Butler last year had 15 games with at least seven assists. Andrew Wiggins has had 14 such games in his entire career. That's the, that's how much of a playmaking upgrade Jimmy Butler is over Andrew Wiggins. It will help them offensively in every single way. It'll give him the best two man game they've had since Kevin Durant was on the team. Again, any sort of action involving Steph and Jimmy is going to present defenses with a lot of problems. Because the kind of guy who's quick enough and attentive enough to guard Steph is very different than the big kind of like forward. You need to deal with a guy like Jimmy Butler. So any sort of action between the two of them. Jimmy screens for Steph. They're going to have to put two on the ball now. Jimmy's going to be open. You've got a four on three. Being led by a very, very good offensive player. Better than anybody else that's on the roster at this point, right? Jimmy has the ball, Steph screens for him. They don't switch to stay with Steph. Jimmy's going to go right downhill, rip to the basket for a dunk. If they leave Steph to put two on Jimmy, Steph's going to be wide open, popping to the three point line. And now if Steph and Jimmy run a two man game and there's a switch. Jimmy Butler is the type of player that has the ability to consistently punish that switch in a way that Andrew Wiggins could not. It's a massive upgrade there. He's been a knockdown spot up shooter for a few years now, like damn near 50%. It'll give them a much, much better chance to survive than non Steph minutes. It'll give them a bonafide playoff stud to just hang in terms of the talent of those environments. And most importantly, it slots all the other role players into more achievable roles. As long as Steph and Jimmy are both healthy, you'll never have to watch a bench unit without a star trying and failing to score. As long as those two two guys are healthy, you won't have to see that. I'm super excited to see this group in action. Also the, the spot up shooting numbers, that's based on catch and shoot numbers. He's been shooting about 50% on catch and shoot jump shots for the last couple of years, which is crazy. And you still have depth. This is the beauty of having 15 guys that have all played quality minutes for you this year. You kept Kaminga. You still have Buddy heel, Trace, Jackson, Davis, Kevon Looney, Moses Moody, Gary Payton the second. I'm super excited to watch lineups with Jimmy Draymond and Gary Payton all on the floor together playing defense. Brandon Pajemski still on the roster. GI, Santos, Quinn Post. By my count, you still have 11 guys who can play quality minutes in the NBA and now you have them all in more achievable roles. Not to mention, you just have a stronger foundation this summer if, if you, if you're, if there's some other hole in the roster that appears over the course of the next couple months and you want to try to round it out this summer, now you have a stronger foundation with Steph Draymond and Jimmy as opposed to just Stephen Draymond. The warriors are currently two and a half games out of the sixth seat. Do I think they're going to climb to the top of the conference? No. I mean, they have, they have a chance to get out of the play in, but like they're, they're not going to be some dominant team in the Western Conference. But now when you face the warriors in a playoff series, it's contending with Stephen Draymond and Jimmy Butler. You've changed the entire challenge of trying to overcome the talent that the Golden State warriors have on the table. This is again, when you're in a situation like the warriors are in, where you're a little bit strapped for assets, where the types of salaries you have to match, like before the deal, I think they had six guys that make between 5 and 10 million. That makes it really hard to aggregate salaries without giving up a ton of players. They were in a tough spot. There was no perfect deal. There was nothing out there that was going to magically turn them into some top tier contender. But you went from a team that had no shot because they didn't have the shot creation talent necessary to actually contend to. Now you, there's a chance there. Now I can see Steph and Jimmy in a playoff series and the defense comes together. This is a top 10 defense. You can imagine a lineup with Steph next to Gary Payton with Jimmy on the floor, Jonathan Kaminga and Draymond and you're like, there's actually a good amount of talent, athleticism, defensive talent, guys that can Score the basketball on the floor. That's a lineup that might cause some problems for teams. Whereas we've seen too often this year, like if you just guard the warriors well, they probably aren't going to make any shots and you'll probably beat them. It just gives you an upside that wasn't there before and I just really wanted to see Steph play in some more meaningful basketball games and I'm really, really excited that we're going to get to see that. I think this was probably the perfect outcome for the Miami Heat. Andrew Wiggins is a really high level role player. In the same way that he's like under qualified for what the Golden State warriors needed from him. He's overqualified for what the Miami Heat need from him. That's a good thing. I think. He's a top tier perimeter defender in this league. He's got the speed to guard guards and the side to side size to guard wings. I'm super excited to see him in lineups next to Bam and Khalil Ware. Like that could be frightening to deal with defensively. But most importantly, you turned a malcontent who is actively trying to sabotage your season into a really high level role player that plays the same position and you got a first round pick out of it too. Hard not to view that as a massive win for the Miami Heat compared to the alternative. The alternative is your max contract player is just actively trying to mess up everything that you're trying to do. Now you can move on, see what this group is capable of. You can. I think there's a, an obvious offensive ceiling on a team that's led by Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Harrow, Bam Adebayo. There's an obvious offensive limitation there, but now you have the, the actual type of top end athletic personnel on the wing to anchor your front line and give yourself a defensive ceiling that wasn't there before or at least wasn't there because Jimmy Butler wasn't playing. So I, I mean, I think if you really compare it to some of the other deals that were getting floated around out there, I think this one actually made the most sense for them in terms of increasing their potential in the short and the long term. All right, guys, that's all I have for tonight again. As I said, I'm going to get much deeper into the trade deadline tomorrow and get into a bunch of of other story lines. I, as always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for rocking with me and for supporting the show. I'll see you guys next then. The volume what's up guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting HOOPS tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it.
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Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirror ball trophy from Dancing with a Star. So where else you can find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.