Analyst 1 (22:31)
All right, let's go on to Boston, New York what an insane game this was. There's so much interesting stuff to get into with Boston, but I want to kind of set that to aside for the for a minute because as, as poorly as Boston is playing, New York is also playing incredibly well and there are a bunch of specific things that need to get shouted out. I want to start on offense and then we'll work to the defensive end of the floor. On offense once again when they go down 20 they've been Pacers esque with their willingness to just keep pushing the ball in transition, playing with pace, not letting go of the rope and just knowing that they have such a high powered offense that in any little short five minute span of time they can score a bunch of points and make something a game. Like it was OG Anunoby in game one that hit a couple of big, a couple of big threes right after they went up 20 that cut the lead down to 14. Tonight it was Josh Hart. Jason Tatum was straight up ignoring Josh Hart, helping off of him. Jalen Brunson was just kind of probing in the paint and made a couple of easy kick out passes to Josh Hart on basically concession threes from the Celtics defense. He knocked them both down in that early fourth quarter stretch. Mikhail Bridges was amazing and remember he was so good defensively in game one, but really didn't get going offensively in that game. He got his jump shot going in that early fourth quarter stretch. I think he hit like five or six jump shots. Couple of them were his classic kind of movement threes, but several of them were really tough mid range jump shots off the bounce. He had a nasty reverse layup with his left hand out of a ball screen against Drew Holiday. Mikhail Bridges for fourth quarter scoring was key in a big way because the Knicks were playing well on offense in that stretch. That was a stretch where Peyton Pritchard got a couple of wide open threes that he hit. I think Porzingis got an and one in that stretch. Al Horford got a bucket right at the rim like that was this phase of the game when the Celtics offense was actually playing pretty well and continued to kind of stiff arm the Knicks. But Mikhail Bridges just kept scoring and then he hit this three I believe off of the right wing. That cut the lead to seven right around the middle of the fourth quarter. And then Brunson came in and Brunson just completely took over the game from there. And once again late in the game he gets a big three off of an offensive rebound from Josh Hart. He finds a matchup that he likes in drawing, drawing two on the ball with Horford. That ends up setting up Josh Hart with a layup that he missed, but he occupied the rim protector. So Carl Anthony Towns was able to get an offensive rebound put back for an and one. And then late in the game, just continually, every single game in this postseason, when the Knicks need him to generate offense late, like, he's literally coming through every single time. Like, I don't think people realize how crazy this is. Crunch time basketball is extremely hard. The refs swallow the whistle. All of the defenders are playing at a higher level of intensity. Jrue Holiday once again, like, just refusing to give up switches, fighting through screens where, like there were a couple several possessions late where Jalen Brunson had to create a shot against Jrue Holiday. Like, he, regardless of this incredible difficulty of these situations, he's literally coming through every single game. This is crazy, guys. This is one of the most reliably great clutch performers I've ever watched. And you know, again, those Drew isos, like Drew Holiday has consistently throughout the season done a phenomenal job one on one against Jalen Brunson. He's the one guy on the Celtics that he really struggles to get separation from. And twice down the stretch there, there were like three possessions where he attacked him directly. And on two of those possessions, he managed to score a nasty one leg fade away. Got got his shoulder into Drew and then just leaned back on a one leg fade away around the right elbow. And then he drew a foul. On that final possession, the one that got the lead, he knew, he knew Drew was going to be aggressive. He knew Drew it was going to be physical. And he just trusted his handle. He trusted his counter move. He spun off of Drew, Drew got out of position. Drew had no choice but to start hacking him, and he drew a foul there to get to the line. So again, four points out of those late ISOs against Drew Holiday that like, that's, that's really high level production in those situations. You got a transition right handed layup on Al Horford. Just taking, you know, being opportunistic about an advantage that presented itself in transition, just kind of shot the gap got around, Horford got to that right handed layup. I just can't say enough about Jalen Brunson and the job that he's done in the clutch for this team. But I want to hold off about the conversation about him and where he stands among the guards right now because he was incredible on defense in this game again. But I want to talk about The Knicks defense in the big picture. We talked a lot about OG Anunoby and Mikhail Bridges after game one. And those guys were amazing again tonight. Like OG forced Tatum into a really tough left shoulder fade on a clutch possession late, kind of a late clock situation where Tatum had no choice but to attack him. Defended him extremely well. Mikhail Bridges had that late peel off of Jalen Brown where he got the deflection off of Tatum on the final possession that forced the turnover. They both had big like kind of help defense sequences in the, in the fourth quarter out of the post like Mikhail bridges scram, deuce McBride out of a post mismatch. Porzingis slipped, he had McBride, he scrammed him out of it and actually forced Porzingis to give up the ball and they ended up forcing a miss. OG Anunoby had that big baseline double team on a post up late in the game. Those guys were amazing. They do so much to clean up messes for this Knicks defense. But I want to shout out two other guys tonight, Mitchell Robinson and Jalen Brunson. First of all, Mitchell Robinson, one of the big reasons why he continues to be such a reliable piece for, for New York in this matchup is his ability defend in switches plus 19 tonight in 22 misses or 22 minutes. I'm pulling up the, the, the plus minus from game one because I wanted to see in, in game one he was plus 13 in 21 minutes. So they've consistently been very good with Mitchell Robinson on the floor. And a big part of it is, you know, we saw, you know, they can attack Carl Anthony Towns and pick and roll. That was how Tatum drew that late foul call, the one that brought the three point lead down to two was he just basically flipped a screening angle on Cat. He, Cat had to rush over to the other side of the screen. He quickly split him with a crossover dribble and then Cat had no choice but to hack him as he was going downhill. But like for the most part, Mitchell Robinson, when he switches in those ball screens has been able to keep the ball in front and force them into a contested mid range pull up or a contested three point pull up. And that's winning those matchups because Tatum and Brown can't make that shot right now. Both of them are just so broke with their jump with their jump shot. And like there was a little thing that you saw there late that the play where Tatum got the dunk to get the lead, the dead giveaway or the obvious difference was that they just gave Tatum a massive Runway and let him run the length of the floor. And they set the ball screen damn near at half court. And so he was already. He had such a head of steam by the time he got to Mitchell Robinson that it was so easy for him to break him off with a simple move there. But Mitchell Robinson's defense and his ability to switch in, pick and roll on those guys has been a huge part of how they've been able to be so good defensively in the lineups. When he's on the floor, Joe Missoula, like flat out admitted after the game that he's hacking him. Not even because of the free throws, he's hacking him because he's trying to get Tibbs to take him off the floor. Like, freely admitted. It is like, like, like he said after the game, he's like, I hacked him on that late possession just to get Tibs to take him off the, get off the floor because look at his plus minus and then look at the plus minus of all the starters. I thought that was a super interesting bit. Like, first of all, for, for Tib, for Missoula to even admit that in that situation, I thought was fascinating. But yeah, it's. Mitch has been kicking everybody's butt. And then Jalen Brunson, I shouted him out, if you guys remember, after game one for a couple of key defensive sequences. He had two stops against Tatum on an island where he beat him to spots and forced him into tough pull ups. He battled Horford on a couple of post mismatches where he fronted the post bunch of the same stuff again tonight, just battling in post mismatches, being willing to hold up on an island again with both guys with Cat and with Brunson, they're still mixing in the hedge and recover with Brunson, they're still mixing in a bunch of drop with Cat, you know, just, just to try to, you know. One of the interesting subplots here is I think part of the reason why Tibbs is sticking with that is because Boston shooting the ball so poorly because, like, they're getting, getting clean looks out of a lot of those actions late in the game. They got Horford a couple of wide open looks in pick and pop situations late in the game, just like that. But they're, they're just. Brunson is competing defensively and it's making a world of difference. Cat is still really struggling, but Brunson has made it so that there one really weak defender on the floor instead of two. And like I talked a lot about, you know, during the The Knicks struggles this year. I've talked a lot about the idea that they kind of, you know, that teams have missed the point about what made Boston great. You know, what made Boston great wasn't necessarily just Tatum and Brown. Obviously those guys are a big part of it, but it's that they can keep putting together these five man lineups where all five defenders are great. And like, by the way, Boston's not losing this series because of defense. They held the Knicks to 91 points tonight. They, the, the Celtics can guard one through five in basically all of their lineups. The majority of their lineups, with exception to like, poor Zingus, is like the one guy that they're really struggling to guard with in, in this particular phase of the season. But like with the Knicks, one of the reasons why they never had any sort of sustained success against great teams this year, frankly, any success against great teams this year was because Brunson and Cat were these like, obvious entry points. And so it doesn't matter how good McHale is on the ball, it doesn't matter how good OG is on the ball. They're just in rotation too much. And like Brunson being able to hold his ground the way that he's been holding his ground in conjunction with the job that Mikhail and OG are doing and all these help and recover situations and Josh Hart as well, it's just made it so that the Knicks defense is so much more sturdy in these spots. And like, obviously there's a Celtics element with them knocking down shots. And you know, this will bear out over the course of the series, like whether you want to ask me whether or not the Knicks can win this series, it really is going to come down to whether or not that defense can hold up. Because we're going to talk about Boston here in a minute. Boston was consistently better on the road than they were at home this year. This series is not over. Boston. I would not be even the slightest bit surprised if Boston went down to MSG and won two and brought this series back to Boston at 2 2. So like, this is not over, but the pathway for the Knicks is that defense that we just talked about. Holding up. Brunson holding up to help and recover, holding up just them in general holding up on that end of the floor. But hell, hell of a punch from the Knicks. You know, it's, it's so funny. I was talking with Josh Rodriguez, he's a guy used to do some work for this show, big Knicks fan. And, and we were talking after Game 7, Game 6, of the Pistons series. And he was like, man, Knicks fans are so sick of this team because they just didn't have the same, like, juice, Competitive juice that they did in last year's team. And, you know, like, you've cat's joking after the series, like, we just like to do things the hard way. And it's like, well, you. You guys kind of don't do the work for large stretches of games and make things really difficult on yourself. But for whatever reason, it's like, all come to fruition here in the first two games of the series. And all of a sudden, this looks like a Knicks team that has a decent chance to win the title. Like, they're, they're a legitimate threat in a way that I did not see them as a legitimate threat at all coming into this postseason run. So shout out to the Knicks for discovering a sturdy defensive identity. And then there's the second piece of it, which is Jalen Brunson. And again, like, this is a conversation for the summer. And I would lean Steph still at this point because I just am such a believer in late round playoff success. But Jalen Brunson, you know, especially with Steph starting to age out, Jalen Brunson is making a strong case to be the best small guard in the league with the way that he's been playing as of late, for him to be as sturdy defensively as he has been and then to just routinely be arguably the very best closer in all of basketball to the point where the Knicks did the job of getting them into two close games against the Celtics late. And twice, Jalen Brunson stared down Jayson Tatum and was just flat out better than him. And I just, I just want to shout out Brunson. I think, I think he, at the very least, now has a case to be the best small guard in the league. And again, we'll, We'll. We'll approach that again this summer. But, man, like, he's just playing at a crazy high level. So let's talk about Boston's offense. Couple of things. First of all, the hilarious thing was that after OG's offensive foul, when he dunked all over, who was it that got in front of him? Was it Derek White? I think it was Derek White dunks all over Derek White. Derek White gets the charge call, and the Celtics immediately go on a run and blow the lead up to 20. What's hilarious is after the charge, they got five buckets right at the rim in that run to get it up to 20. Derek White went Right through Brunson to the rim. Tatum went, had this angry looking post up of McHale bridges where he just backed him down and got right to the front of the rim. Derek White had another driving layup and pick and roll. Then Tatum and White both set up Cornet and Porzingis for buckets right at the front of the rim. They got that lead up to 20, getting stuff right at the rim. And we're going to talk about that in a little bit as it pertains to the versatility element. But honestly guys, like, when I watched the second half of game one, I was like, I called it CTE basketball as a joke, but like it, it was just an enormous amount of poor process and terrible shot selection. I didn't feel that way at all watching the second half of this game. I thought their process was generally good and I thought they mostly got great shots. Yes, there were some bad ones mixed in there that Tatum had that bad left shoulder fade over Ogn and Obi and clutch time that he missed. Jalen Brown had a shot where he went right at Brunson and tried to like grift a foul around the left elbow. That was a bad possession. Obviously. The final possession where Tatum shot it, tried to pass out of a double team and turned it over against Mikhail Bridges. That was a bad possession, but there was a lot of good. You know, I saw Jason Tatum trying to split ball screens against Cat and and Mitchell Robinson late and getting to the rim. Jaylen Brown did have a play where he tried to bully Jalen Brunson right to the front of the rim and he just missed like a really easy shot right at the front of the rim. And like Horford, but naked three in the right corner missed Derrick White, butt naked three on the left wing missed. Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown both missed about the easiest wide open threes you'll ever see down the stretch of this game. Tatums was off the catch in the right corner and kind of a semi transition sequence. Jalen Brown missed one at the top of the key out of a ball screen where there was nobody up at the level and the screen wiped out the defense. I mean, he's standing unguarded. And so it was very different from game one in the sense that like, you know, the Celtics have taped. The Celtics took 60 threes in Game 1, but they were bad threes. I've seen The Celtics take 50, 55 threes in a game and have them mostly be good threes. It has nothing to do with the volume of threes. For me, it has to do with where they get them. But there is a reality to the fact that if your offense is primarily designed to generate threes and the propensity of the team is to hunt those threes, even if they're good threes, every three has a certain degree of variance to it. To take it a step further, shooting in general is kind of a mind fucking. The best shooters in the world don't make half their threes. Meaning like if you take a three, you're probably going to miss. And so as they start to stack up on you, often it can get in your head, you start to tweak your release. Like guys, Jason Tatum's jump shot has not just been off, it's been way off over the course of this series. He's clearly in his head about it because that's what happens when, when shots start to miss. It can spiral on you. I, you know, there's been a lot of like analytical attempts over the years to try to explain shooting variants and I've seen pieces that try to say that there's no such thing as the hot hand. I don't have any idea of how to explain it to you guys other than to say that if you've played, you know, you know that it's a real thing and it could just as easily flip. They could go into game three and suddenly Tatum, Brown and White could go, you know, 12 for 20 from three and they could blow out the Knicks and, you know, send this to a game for it, two games to one. But there is variance. It's an inherent part of shooting and it tends to be streaky. It tends to be, as a team you'll go cold and as a team you'll go hot. There is a momentum behind that sort of thing. Now this is where the variety comes into the to the picture. The closer you can get to the basket with pet action. Meaning like let's say that Jayson Tatum just made a concerted effort to post up legitimately like six, seven, eight, nine times a game. If he made that effort, that makes it so that there's a huge chunk of the way that he can generate offense that generates shots that are closer to the rim. The closer you get to the rim, the less variance there is. Tatum is absolutely big and strong enough to be a guy that can bump a defender off and take a left shoulder hook. There's nothing that says that he can't take that type of shot. Tatum also with his jump shot will have less variance on short little 10 foot turnarounds than he will on 17 foot turnarounds or on three point shots. As a team, this offense is entirely geared around the ability to generate three point shots. This is where I got to go to the stars and guys like Jayson Tatum had the best season of his career. And this was the first season where I said that I thought that he was a legitimate top tier superstar in this league. He combined the versatility that he had really built out over the previous years as a big strong athlete that could do everything as a rebounder and as a defender. He combined that with a dramatically improved overall just like floor presence as a playmaker and as just like a half court kind of flow of the game guy. And then he took a leap as a shot maker to the extent to where he looked fantastic in the first round. But as I've consistently said, like when Tatum can't make his jump shot, he is no longer a top tier superstar in this league. And the reason is, is because he doesn't have any elite first step that can consistently beat people off the dribble good defenders and he doesn't have any sort of legitimate reliable close range game. And so if his jump shot isn't there, if he can't rely on that piece of his offense, he dramatically dips overall as an offensive talent. And suddenly this Celtics statement again, like remember last year when Tatum was faltering, Jalen Brown was playing the best basketball of his career. The problem is, is Jaylen Brown is also in just as big of a shooting slump. And so it's really tricky because the two guys that are primarily responsible for generating shots for this offense are two guys that rely on consistently getting to the rim and knocking down pull up jump shots. And neither of them can get to the rim right now and neither of them can make their jump shot. And so all of a sudden you have a Celtics offense that even though they're surrounded by all of this play finishing talent, they are unable to generate something that doesn't have a great deal of variance involved, which is that three point shot attack. When we look at the top players in the league, when you look at like Nikola Jokic for instance, his game is impervious to variance because he shoots like 65% on shots that are within 10ft of the basket that are not layups. Shay Gilders, Alexander is going to get into the mid range and he's over 50% from there. He's much less susceptible to variance there. These guys at the top of the league, they have a reliable element to their game. That at this point in Tatum's career he hasn't really developed. And so as a result it's like Tatum's making jump shots. He's the third best player in the league. Tatum's not making jump shots. He's like the eighth or ninth best player in the league. And like, you want to know why the Celtics are down 2 0? It's because their best player is like completely decomposing in these games. Now again, the series is not over. I would not be the slightest bit surprised if Boston went down and won game three, four, five and six. But it's going to turn on Jayson Tatum. If Tatum goes down there and gets back to that top tier superstar level, the Celtics will win. If he goes down there and drops another five for 17 then they're not going to win the series. It like once again these series keep coming down to the play of these superstars and I just think it's really fascinating AI is redefining what's possible for your business Are you up to the challenge? 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