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Jason (Hoops Tonight Host)
The volume. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Friday everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great end to your week. Today is Mailbag day. We will occasionally have mailbags throughout the playoffs as we find time but we do shift very heavily towards game reaction because we just have games every single night and those games are so important and so interesting. So we'll see. I. I'm gonna try to fit in a mailbag here or there. We'll probably do them during the morning sometimes, but this could be our last mailbag for a little while. So I'm really excited. You guys did a great job dropping questions in. We got about 12 questions to get to today that bounce all around the league. You guys know the joke before we started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Make sure you like this video and then sign up for post notifications. And last but not least, if you want to get mailbag questions into our mailbags moving forward, drop them into our full episodes on YouTube and we'll get to them throughout the rest of the season. All right, let's talk some basketball. First question My question is about Tatum and Brown as a duo. Obviously I think we can all agree that they're the best current duo, but where do you see them as an all time duo going forward? We're looking at two of the best two way players in the entire league on the same roster. With Brown's growth, they now have two players that when healthy that are both looking like top 10 players in the league and they still have long futures with each other. Where do you think these two could make it in terms of a duo all time? Great question. Jackson and I were actually talking during the win against the Hornets the other night about how Jalen Brown's improvement has just been super fun to watch and specifically like what those two kind of give you as a floor for a basketball team. And to put it very simply, like I don't care what else is around them, as long as Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown are playing together, the Celtics are always going to have a shot to win the title. It's a combination. When you talk about duos, you, you, you're looking for two specific kind of like dynamics in order to drive a kind of like a. A greater than the sum of your parts versus a lesser than the sum of your parts type of dynamic, right? And I think throughout the years we've seen various different versions of that where like for instance take like Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, it felt like they were lesser than the sum of their parts because there was a lot of overlap in their skill sets and neither of them was like a player that could really, really impact the game defensively and so we kind of saw some diminishing returns there. Then there's like kind of in the middle. Like, I think LeBron and AD kind of fit this mold where like, I thought they really accentuated each other defensively. And there was a level of like, okay, when these two are, especially in 20, 20, 2021, when those two would really engage themselves defensively, they were able to reach a level that was really difficult for teams to, to handle. But the, the flip side is LeBron was very much like a offensive orchestrator type of player. And LeBron and AD were such similar sizes that any sort of action the two of them ran just kind of led to a switch, which turned Anthony Davis into a guy that had to play out of the post a lot. And Anthony Davis was just a kind of a mediocre, break the defense down type of post up player, which continued to put tons of pressure on LeBron as like a offensive initiator out of ISO, which as he reached his late 30s was more difficult to do. That's why it worked so well when they were 20, 20, 20 21. LeBron's still MVP level. LeBron's still best player in the world. They were able to win a title and looked amazing. But then as soon as Solomon Hill dove into LeBron's ankle and he broke down a little bit, suddenly offensively, those two just couldn't reach the level that they needed to reach, right? Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum have the a specific dynamic that complements each other really well on both ends of the floor. So first of all, on the defensive end, that Jaylen Brown is very much a traditional three and Jason Tatum is very much a traditional four. So if Jalen Brown is a three and Tatum is a four, they're constantly able to accentuate each other defensively, most famously in the 2024 NBA Finals, where you're able to deploy Jalen Brown on a guy like Luka Doncic and deploy Jason Tatum on a guy like Derek Lively or Daniel Gafford switch ball screens. Both guys are physically strong enough to guard the five. Both guys are quick enough laterally to guard on the perimeter. It made them this devastating defensive duo. But then on the offensive end of the floor, because both of them were in their prime athletically, even though actions between the two of them led to switches, they were both dynamic matchup attackers. I also thought, and I think this has really started to come to the surface this year as Jaylen Brown has improved as a processor in the half court. Tatum and Brown presents some real complimentary traits. Offensively, Tatum's more of a ball mover. Tatum is a guy that runs action and makes really simple reads relentlessly and a guy that's become a very, very gifted passer in this league. Whereas Jaylen Brown, even though he has shown growth as a passer and I don't want to kind of minimize that, Jaylen Brown is this dynamic first step quickness mixed with power type of ISO player that, that can do some of the one on one stuff that Jason Tatum has struggled with over the years. And so the two of them in a lot of ways present like even though they play vaguely similar roles on offense, the two of them attack in very different ways. That has allowed them to compliment each other and bring different dynamics to the offense. And so as a result, the two of them present like a very, very high floor on both ends of the floor. On defense you've got like we talked about all the versatility in terms of the ability to match up that they present. And on offense, just as if those two guys are on the floor, you got a lot of ways that you can attack an opposing defense. And so as a result, those two have had sustained success up to this point and I think they'll have sustained success moving forward in a lot of ways. Like the Jayson Tatum injury kind of cleared the way for Jaylen Brown to take on that more aggressive role. We actually saw that at phases like in the 2024 finals even before Jayson Tatum's injury. But Jayson Tatum, because of his willingness more to be a passer and, and because he can struggle with first step quickness and he can settle for more pull up jump shots off the dribble, which he's good, not great at, it kind of functions better when Jaylen Brown is being the primary aggressor in the offense. That does. That's not a conversation about which player is better because Jaylen, Jason Tatum is a more well rounded basketball player all around. He's a better defensive rebounder, he is a better passer, he's a better like quick decision maker in the half court. He's a better spot up three point shooters like Jaylen Jaylen Brown, it's more of just that tip of the spear strength that he presents. But Jason Tatum is more the spear. And when you have a duo where one guy can be the spear and one guy can be the tip of the spear, that's that level of like cohesiveness you want from a duo to reach your ceiling. Now as far as rankings go, I would agree with You. I think it gets a little bit more complicated if like, let's say that, let's say that Luka Doncic is completely healthy and I've got like a guy that is literally in the conversation for the best player in the world and I'm looking at a guy like LeBron as his number two. Or if I'm looking at, you know, Nicola Jokic and Jamal Murray, you know, that's where it can get a little bit more dicey in terms of debate, debating where they rank. But I do agree with you. I think Jalen Brown has reached a level this season where he's like right on the fringe of that top tier superstars. Like, he's probably like the sixth or seventh best player in the NBA right now somewhere in, in that range. Jason Tatum has looked fantastic since he's come back. He's in that 8 to 10 range. So like, regardless of where you have them, they're both in that like 6 to 10 range, which to your point, gives them the only collection of two top 10 players playing on the same team in the entire league. So I would agree that they're the best duo in the NBA right now. Now, as it pertains to the big picture, like historical stuff, it's all going to be about how they rack up accolades over the course of the next few years. I think Boston is very much going to be competing for championships over the next three, four years. They get one or two more. That's where it starts to get more interesting compared to like Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, LeBron James. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, you know, Kobe Bryant and Shaquille o'. Neal. That's where it gets more interesting. You got to start racking up titles and they certainly are capable, but the league is very deep, so it's going to be difficult. But I thought it was an interesting question and I wanted to dive into why those guys complement each other so well. Hey Jason, love the show. I've recently budgeted time to really dive back into basketball around my work schedule. I noticed you reference cleaning the glass all the time. Would you recommend it as something basketball heads like me invest in? Any other data sites? Thanks for the great content. So cleaning the glass to me is a tool that any like die hard basketball fan should get because it's relatively inexpensive compared to some of the other tools out there. And they have a couple of specific things that I really, really like using. First of all, all their data filters out garbage time. So it's just a little bit more Accurate in terms of the net rating type of data that you see, the rebounding percentage type of data that you see, the lineup data that you tend to see. It's all more accurate because it just takes out garbage time. It only factors in when games are relatively competitive. I love the lineup tool. You have the ability with each team to just put players on the floor or off the floor, which very easily allows you to access information about which pairings, which trios, which groups of four or five gu fit really well or fit negatively in any sort of dynamic for a team. Like little things like if you want to just just say, oh, how does this team look when wemby's off the floor? You literally just put Wemby in the off the floor segment and it can filter through lineup data. So it's a really simple lineup tool that once again also removes garbage time. They've got tools for half court offense so you can like filter offense down to just the half court rather than transition. I love their catch all transition metric. It's called points added per 100 possessions in transition. That is a metric that I use a lot for just evaluating how good a team is in transition offense versus transition defense. I can filter net ratings by teams that when they play against teams that are in the top 10 in point differential, the middle 10 in point differential, the bottom 10 in point differential, just against top 10 defenses, just against top 10 offenses. It's just really good for looking up data for how a team performs based on differing circumstances. And again, it's relatively inexp compared to many of the other tools out there. That is a major one that I use. Again, there are a lot of different tools out there and you can really start to accumulate them all. I am very fortunate to have access to tools like Synergy that are very expensive, but the reality is is that like cleaning the glass for the money is just a simple easy one that gives you a lot of really helpful information without having to get too far into the weeds or without having to spend too much money. Next question. My friends were talking My friends were smack talking Shay and muddying the waters around his MVP case. I expressed that he is having a Jordanesque scoring season in terms of efficiency and entry and every level scoring and that it would be highway robbery should he not win it. If he loses this MVP race, will this be viewed as a historic snub in a decade or two? Additionally, do you think this race will be viewed in a similar light as the 62 race or similarly stacked MVP race seasons? Love the show. So here's the thing. I am 100% with you that it would be highway robbery if Shay didn't win the mvp. Obviously Luke is injury has kind of dropped him down. Wemby not getting the one seed has kind of disqualified him to this point. The one guy I've seen that's gotten a lot of buzz late in the season is Nicole Jokic, which I just completely disagree with. I do think Luka, I do think Nicola Jokic is the best player in the world at this point. I think he's kind of demonstrated that with his play here over the the tail end of the season. However, being the best player in the world and winning MVP are two very different things. We talked a bit about this when we debated the 2016 Steph versus LeBron kind of conversation. To me, having the best regular season is a separate conversation from like, okay, we're starting the playoffs tomorrow. You get to choose any player in the league to lead your team regardless of surrounding circumstances. Who do you pick? And to me, I still lean slightly towards Jokic over Shai at this point, but to me, Shay just. I always divide MVP into a three step category or three category kind of like criteria. Who's the best player? Who's the best player on the best team? Who's the most valuable player? Shay is no lower than the second best player in the league and you can make a case for him at number one. That I think is a legitimate case, although I think he's number two. But still he's so high on that list and so competitive with Jokic that that's a strength in his case. Best player on the best team. The Thunder are the best team in the league. So that's pretty straightforward. And I do think that when you factor in some of the injuries that Oklahoma City has dealt with this year that Shea plays a lot larger role into that than he gets credit for. And then lastly, value, the Thunder offense falls off of a cliff when Shay is off the floor and they've won a lot of clutch games this year that have basically come down to his ability to knock down clutch shots, which he's done at a higher level than anybody in the league by a wide margin this season. So he is one of the top two players in the league. He is the best player on the best team and the only player in the league that's been more valuable on like a point, points per possession type of situation. Like clearly more valuable is Victor Weyama, but he clearly has demonstrated huge value to the Thunder. So to Me. Shai has an extremely clear MVP case. Again, it probably won't be unanimous because it just never is. Like even LeBron in 2013, as dominant as he was, some dude voted, some Celtics writer voted for Carmelo Anthony. Like it's extremely rare to have a year like 2016 where everybody just agrees that one guy had the best regular season. So he may not be unanimous. And there is some buzz for Jokic specifically stemming from his advanced metrics like the Catch alls. And just something I've learned about this business since I got into it. There is a large chunk of the NBA voter pool that rather than like watching games, evaluates their voting primarily on or makes their voting decisions primarily on the use of catch all metrics. I vehemently disagree with that. I just don't get me started. But that is something that a lot of voters do. So don't be surprised if Jokic gets, you know, a dozen or so numb number one votes, first place votes stemming from his catch all metrics. But I think Shay's case is so resoundingly strong across the board that I think he's going to end up being a runaway MVP this year and I think he will deserve it. As for questions like the 62 race, I'm going to guess from your question that you're a fan of Carson Breber and Nerd Sesh because he's a big Shay fan who's been pleading his case all year and he's a guy that will dive into things like a 54 year old MVP case or whatever or 64 year old MVP case. But I don't really dive that far back into NBA history. I'm very much kind of like an in the moment type of NBA fan. I do love NBA history history. But like I tend to not go too much further back past like 1980 for me as a basketball fan. So like I'm not the guy to answer that particular question. I'm sure if you asked Carson he would have one for you. By the way, I saw a tweet today of some dude, Carson did one of his like trivia things and some guy was like calling him out for faking it and he's just so wrong. Guys, Carson is a literal genius and spend like five minutes talking to him and you'll pick up on it pretty quick. All the you're seeing with him is completely real. That dude is, he's just, he's one of my favorite people. He's just, I, I think he's a future star in this business. I think he's just absolutely incredible and he's definitely not faking that stuff. Today's show is brought to you by presenting sponsor Hard Rock bet, the official sportsbook partner of the Miami Heat and the Orlando Magic. The hardwood is heating up as the NBA playoff push rolls on, and with Hard Rock Bet, every night is a shot to build a same game parlay and score a major bucket. Maybe you like the hot hand to drop 30, the big man to control the glass of the double double, and the point guard to dish out five assists. However you draw it up, Hard Rock Bet gives you tons of ways to stack your picks into an epic same game parlay. Missed tip off of that big game? No problem. Hard Rock Bet lets you live bet all game long from the first bucket to the final buzzer, so it's never too late to find a winner or grab that player prop that you had circled. 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Jason (Hoops Tonight Host)
Hey Jason, thank you for the great content and the excellent and an excellent job with the Derek White interview. My question is about Kawhi Leonard. With the Clippers unlikely to go on a deep run despite Kawhi having a career year, I question how many great seasons like this we will have from Kawhi. How do you view his legacy and his place all time? Thank you. As always, thank you for the kind words and for supporting the show. I had a lot of people that reached out about the Dirk White interview. I I thought it went really well as well. We're obviously still learning is kind of a new thing for us and there are things that I want to do better next time that we have an interview like that. But at the same time like for what it is, something relatively new. I thought it went really well and I thought Derek, I want to give all the credit to Derek. I just thought he really cared and gave a great effort and was interesting and engaged and I just thought he was awesome and I thought the interview was a ton of fun. But I do appreciate all you guys who reached out and said kind words about the interview. Kawhi in his health. Like, it's interesting. Like you've kind of see this with various players over the years that have significant injury issues pop up. And Kawhi was very healthy early in his career and then ran into issues in his late 20s. But we see versions of this with like maybe Darius Garland right now or like Steph Curry early in his career. Sometimes guys have like recurring injury issues and then they kind of figure stuff out for how to like sustain health. And it does feel like Kawhi has progressively gotten a little more healthy as the years have gone by compared to where he was in like 2021 and 2022. And so I do think it's very possible that Kawhi can kind of put together a three or four year run here where he stays relatively healthy. Now, whether or not he can be that level of superstar that he needs to be to like take a team to the promised land, I don't know that he'll be able to sustain that very long. And I was concerned by him not being able to really come close to Jokic, his level in the first round last year. So I kind of think he's in that second tier star range. But here's the thing, if he can stay healthy as a second tier star, then you can justify paying him a shit ton of money and investing in him in a three or four year window. And so if Kawhi continues to stay healthy, I wouldn't be surprised if some team takes a shot on him. I wouldn't be surprised if a team like Golden State goes, hey, why don't we go get Kawhi Leonard and see if we can't make a run with Steph Curry. Like I and I think if Kawhi demonstrates the ability to like win a play in game, go into a first round series and look like Kawhi for two weeks and survive athletically and go into a healthy summer. You know, that's two years in a row where he's been able to stay healthy. And maybe he is figuring out how to kind of sustain his ability to stay on the floor in this phase of his career. And so I do think that he's kind of making the conversation surrounding his availability more complicated with how he's been able to stay on the floor the last couple of seasons. Now. Where does his legacy in place all time kind of land? He's one of the most interesting cases in the NBA in the sense that you could argue him extremely high based on his ceiling or extremely low based on his ability to kind of like, put up like, you know, total numbers of points, total numbers of deep playoff runs, total numbers of like, MVPs, like that kind of stuff. Like, there's a lot of like, counting stuff with Kawhi that he's just going to fall woefully short of some of his peers. But anybody who's been a real basketball fan in this era has seen Kawhi go toe to toe with LeBron, has seen Kawhi go toe to toe with KD, has seen Kawhi be at his best, every bit as good as the top players in the league during that, you know, 2019, 2020, you know, this, this last, you know, six or seven years. And so with that being the case, it's just really complicated in his all time placement because all time, you know, basketball rankings tend to heavily favor what you've accomplished on your resume. And Kawhi is just going to fall short there. But he's a guy that obviously at his very best, was one of the very best players in the league. I don't ever think he was the best player in the world. I think one of the things with Kawhi that goes a little overrated is a lot of basketball fans overrate scoring. They just do. It's why a lot of people think KD is better than Steph. I just don't like, to me, the ability to generate offense for a team is fundamentally different than the ability to generate offense for yourself. And I think at various points over the years, we've seen Kawhi really struggle when teams kind of throw the kitchen sink at him and force him to process. Denver last year is a great example. They just doubled Kawhi a ton and he didn't handle it very well. But if you can put him in a situation like the 2019 Raptors, where like, it's like, we can handle everything. Kyle Lowry is helping to process the offense. Pascal Siakam's providing all this extra punch. All you need to do is get buckets. It's all you need to do. It's like the perfect spot for him. Same thing goes with Kevin Durant, right? Like we've seen routinely Kevin Durant when he has to take on a larger offensive role, like in Oklahoma City, like in Brooklyn, like in Phoenix, like now in Houston, where he is the primary offensive engineer. We've seen his teams routinely just struggle to reach the highest levels of the NBA. But you plug him into a system that already has a MVP level shot creator that handles all of that for him, and they're already in elite defense and you say, hey, Kevin Durant, just get buckets. Just hit a hesi pull up three over LeBron James on the left wing that like just, just do this one thing that you're great at. All of a sudden you can leave series like that and people will be like, oh, is Kevin Durant the best player in the world? And it's just like, no, you hitting a hesi pull up over LeBron James in a big spot is not the same as like driving the success of a basketball team in every phase of the game the way the players that were better than him did. And so I think both Kawhi and KD are a little overrated be specifically because of that overemphasis on scoring that we see most basketball fans focus on. But at the same time, that doesn't mean they're like not near that level. They are, they're both amazing basketball players and both have grown. Kawhi has become better as a processor as the years have gone by. Kevin Durant, game four against Cleveland. It was game, it's either game three or against game three or game four against Cleveland in 2018 was one of the best games I've ever seen any player ever play in terms of like all around impact in every phase of the game. Like KD is certainly capable of that sort of stuff, even if I don't think he did it as a high, at a high enough level to keep up with guys like Steph or LeBron. But generally guys like Kawhi and KD were at least able on any individual game to kind of match the level of the guys that were above them all time. And that's what makes those debates complicated when you start to rank them. But you know, you've guys, you guys have heard me, I have. LeBron is the best player of all time and Steph as the fifth best perimeter player of all time. I don't have Kawhi or KD close to that when I, when I'm building my all time list. Maybe we'll dig a little bit further into that this summer. Hey, Jason, Love the show. As a Magic fan, I hate watching the team on offense and it seems like Mosley is going to get fired at the end of the year. Who do you think would be a good replacement? So this is a tough one for me because like, generally speaking, you don't have a lot of like awesome coaches that are just available that are like big name guys that we're all aware of. And one of my biggest weaknesses at this point in my careers is I'm not super well connected. It's not, it's, it's something that I'm working on. It's something that I really want to improve on. But like, I want to be more connected with coaching staffs, more connected with front offices so I can have a better idea of their process. So for example, like offensive organization, the idea of like pursuing certain types of shots, spacing concepts, building an offense in terms of the types of actions that you run that accentuate your best players and their strengths rather than, you know, playing into the strengths of the, of the defense or playing into the weaknesses of what your players do. That sort of thing a lot of times is coming from an assistant. A lot of times, like you'll see, you know, like, like we'll see an awesome baseline out of bounds play and we'll be like, oh man, like the, what a, what a play call from JJ Redick and it's like, oh, actually it was one of his assistants that drew that up. And so it's one of those things where I, what the Orlando needs to do is open up an extensive interview process where they interview many of the top assistants around the league and specifically canvas them for their offensive beliefs and ask them to sit down and be like, pitch me on how you plan on making this work. With Paolo, with Desmond Bain, with Franz Wagner, with Wendell Carter Jr. You know, with Anthony Black. Tell me how we're going to make this work. And you know, the person who sits down and eloquent, eloquently breaks down exactly what he views as the strengths and weaknesses in the offense. Like, okay, we have a strength in the form of these two big forwards that are very good at attacking matchups that can really pressure the rim, but they both struggle with jump shooting. But we also have a guard in Desmond Bain that is an extremely high level movement shooter and we have another guard in Anthony Black that is really blossoming into a pretty well rounded offensive player. So like, how are we going to, you know, get more action that involves multiple players, like three man action, but that also involves Desmond Bain and Paolo or Desmond Bain and Franz always involved. So that teams have to make complicated decisions about whether or not they're going to switch, whether or not they're going to hedge and recover. That puts the defense into a bind more frequently. Why? So that we can get Paolo downhill more often, so that we can get Desmond Bain open, popping out of screens more often so that we can have fewer possessions where Paolo and Franz are dribbling against a Big strong defender in settling for some tough mid range pull up and more possessions where Franz is going downhill and making passing reads. More possessions where Paolo is going downhill and making passing reads. Those are the kinds of things that I want to hear from an assistant that is interviewing for that position. But again, because of my current kind of weakness and how poorly connected I am to the way these NBA franchises are working both at the coaching level and the front office level, I don't have like a list of a dozen great assistants that I would be looking at for this position. Whereas if I was more connected and I had a better understanding of like who is the offensive architect of this team? Who is the offensive architect of that team? Like that's the kind of stuff that I'd be be looking for. Like a team that I whose offense I really enjoy is Charlotte. If there is an assistant in Charlotte that's working under Charles Lee that is helping to provide a lot of the schematic approach that they're using. That would be a, like, they do run a lot of like inverted action for Moussa Diabate where they use their shooters as screeners. They do have a lot of action that they run that gets their movement shooters coming into situations where they have advantage like that. That would be. If there's a guy that's an offensive architect underneath Charles, Charles Lee, that's a guy I'd be trying to interview for that position. But essentially you want to, you want a guy that can put this team into a much better position offensively and it's probably going to be an assistant somewhere in the league. I also think Orlando's relatively young enough that you don't need to have some sort of old guy who's, you know, super respected that comes in and runs the show. If you do go that route, if you do end up like picking up, picking some sort of like, like retread coach that's coming around the league, then you need to make sure his top level assistant is a guy that can really help organize the team on the offensive end of the the floor. Next question. Do you think the spurs have a Deer and Fox problem? I feel like they do. Harper has progressed a lot in his rookie season and has shown potential to have a higher ceiling than Fox. The spurs identity to me is large, physical, young guards and Fox doesn't quite fit that description. And he is older. His contract isn't causing flexibility flexibility issues right now because most of their guys are on rookie contracts. But down the line when they need extensions, Fox's contract will make the roster harder to maintain their core pieces. So this is something we all knew before the Dear and Fox trade was made. He wasn't the perfect option, he was just the best available option. Why did they have to take the best available option? Because Wemby changed their timeline. We talked about this all season. Last year Wemby was so good so early that you no longer could just sit there and be like hey, we're waiting for Steph Castle and Dylan Harper to be better. Like as far as flawed as Dear and Fox is compared to a Shea compared to a Jamal Murray. If they end up in a slowdown playoff series, he's still their safest bet compared to giving the ball to a rookie or giving the ball to a second year player. Darren Fox gives you the best available on ball guard at the time to pair with Wemby and give you the best chance to compete and contend. Right now you're right that this is going to be a Harper Castle team moving forward. I wouldn't be surprised if San Antonio turns around and trades Dear and Fox at some point down the line. And here's the thing. If you end up trading Dear and Fox, let's say after this season or after next season and you don't get a single pick back like you, you literally have to just dump his salary for filler or you do it and you get like one heavily protected first round pick back or something like that, then what you effectively did is you paid to have Fox come in and be a placeholder while your guards were young so that you gave Wemby his best chance to compete. And even if you lose this year to Denver in round two or you lose OKC in round three and you lose again next year to somebody in the second or third round and then you trade Fox, what you did is you gave Victor Wembanyama a lot of really high, high end playoff experience by pairing him with a veteran guard. That gave you the best chance to compete in the short term. San Antonio still has plenty of draft picks available, they still have plenty of depth of talent coming up through their system and there will be more as they continue to make more picks. San Antonio is going to be fine in the long run even if they have to dump Deer and Fox at some point. It was a move that was intended to capitalize on the advanced timeline that Victor Wenyama presented. Next question. Hey Jason, Great show. I still don't get why you didn't have Luka higher than third in MVP when he had a bigger responsibility on his team. Than someone like Wemby and Shea who play with way better rosters. Luka took this very flawed roster despite his two slumps in December and February to the three seed in the Wild West. Again, great show. Congrats to you and your team. Thank you for the kind words and thanks for acknowledging. Yeah, we just, we have an amazing team here at Hoops tonight. But I keep getting really confused by the revisionist history with the Luka Doncic MVP case. For the record, I do appreciate you acknowledging the multiple slumps that came along the way. I've seen a lot of Luca fans that refuse to acknowledge even that. To me, having him third in MVP case was a credit to the fact that he had a bigger responsibility than some of the other candidates. You're right about the flaws in the Lakers roster. We talked about that in yesterday's show extensively. I think it's possible for Luca to have a harder job and to still not have played as well overall as a basketball player as Victor Women Yama and Shake Els Alexander did this season. Yes, Luka did help the team float a strong record through the first two thirds of the season, but he and the team did that by routinely beating up on weak competition and just getting their ass beat every single time they faced a good team after that first stretch of the season. At one point, again, they had played 13 games against teams that had 60% win percentages or better, lost 12 of them. The one win was against the Nuggets without Nicola Jokic, which basically doesn't count as a wheel 60% win percentage team. And in those games, for the most part, they got their ass beat. When we were looking at the Lakers at the All Star break, we were all like, this is the team that sticks out like a sore thumb. Yeah, they have a strong record. All you had to do, remember at the time, if you just opened up your ESPN app and you opened up the standings and you went to the whole league instead of the conference tab and you sorted down by win percentage and all the teams were there and the Lakers were routinely somewhere around like the fifth best record to like the seventh or eighth best record. They were always in that top 10 all season. So then you just looked over to the side to the point differential. It was a bunch of big green numbers and then a red number. For the Lakers, they had a negative point differential for a huge portion of the season. Yes, they had a good record, but everyone was in agreement that they were the sore thumb. They were nowhere near as good as they looked in the standings. Now yes, Luke is not necessarily to blame for that. But at the same time, if you watched Luka through that first two thirds of the season, he was playing really well, but not as good as Shay. He was playing really well, but not as good as Jokic. He was playing really well, but not as good as Victor Wembanyama. Then we got to the All Star break, and at that point, Luca started playing arguably better than anybody in the league. I've said this on the show. From the moment of the All Star break to the moment the Luka pulled his hamstring, I thought he played the best basketball out of any of those stars. In that small window in time, in that stretch, the Lakers did finally start beating good teams. And so as a result, you zoomed out at the big picture and you're like, wow, they've got the fifth best record in the league. They've beat these good teams. Luka Doncic is looking like an mvp. And so it was really easy to then look back and, like, have this sort of revisionist history type of conversation. But even with that run, they still had a much worse point differential than any of the teams that were above them in the standings or even some of the teams that were below them. Even against the good teams. Like, after the run in March, the Golden State warriors were a better point differential team against the top 10 point differential teams than the Lakers were. So, like, even with that run they went on in March, the big picture just wasn't that impressive compared to the top team. So it was one of those things where Luka had a great MVP case. I had him third. I had him over Yokich before the injury. I had him over Kate Cunningham and Jalen Brown before the injury. But Victor Wemenyama and Shay Gil just Alexander had just had better seasons and had better cases, in my opinion. Everyone was hung up on Wemby's minutes. Doesn't change the fact that when he was on the floor, he was the most dominant player in the league, literally even more than Shay. And Shea, like we mentioned earlier, had just this incredibly well rounded case. One of the top two players in the league, best player on the best team, one of the top two value players in the league. Like, it just was too clear of a case, and it was too much for Luca to supersede.
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Jason (Hoops Tonight Host)
Hey Jason, completely agree with your take on the Lakers not drafting slash scouting prospects. What do you think the Lakers can do to turn this around with the new CBA and looking at the top teams, they all have great role players and lower contracts who can scale up when needed. How do the Lakers go about improving the team in this way? Does this make this year's draft pick even more important to keep considering the stacked draft class? So I have what Luca did in March that I think is very important is from the entire time that he came to the Lakers last year in February all the way through to the All Star break this year, he had failed to reach the level of like Shea and Nicole Jokic. He had been a level below that, accumulating massive stats. But the impact just wasn't there. What we saw in March is like, oh, when Lucas like this, the Lakers can beat anybody. Even that OKC game, as bad as it was, a big part of it was Luca was bad. Luca played poorly. But if Luca is healthy and he plays well, the Lakers have a much better chance to compete in that game. That is how good Luka Doncic is when he's at his best. That seeing that version of Luca for the first time in a Lakers jersey fundamentally changed my calculus in the way I look at this team moving forward. The real way, like you mentioned in your question, that this Lakers team has fallen short is in their scouting. They're missing on undrafted prospects, they're missing on two way guys, they're missing on castoffs from other teams, they're missing on second round picks, they're missing on first round picks. Rob Polinka to his credit has done fine in some other areas. I did think the Luke Canard trade was a nice little trade that was inexpensive, that made the team better. I did think that the Marcus Smart signing was a very good signing relative to the money in terms of the level of impact that he brought to the table. I thought he overpaid Jake. Deandre Ayton was like a high risk, high upside type of pick that I think is defensible. I don't think it's a win for Rob, but I also don't think it's a loss for Rob. So he had some wins there in terms of the free agent signings. We'll call, I'll just call Marcus a win and I'll call the, the Luke, Luke Canard a trade Luke Canard trade a win. I'll call the the Jake Laravia signing kind of like a either way in an 8 and signing or 8 and signing like an either way. But he had some wins there. But the front office is just getting their ass beat everywhere else. Like the fact that you went after a dutiero, an athlete that very clearly was years away from being able to play was a poor decision for a win now type of team. You bombing on Dalton Connect, you bombing on Jalen Hood Schiffino, you not having a single second round pick pan out since Max Christie back in 2022. The the failure to sign a single impactful rotation player as an undrafted guy. The failure to sign a single impactful two way guy that can be a rotation player. The one cast off that you got was Jordan Goodwin and you literally punted him away this summer. Just, just let him go. Instead of using a second round pick to clear up some cap space for a guy that is like literally one of the top six or seven players on that Phoenix Suns team and that very clearly looked like a useful rotation player last season. So that's where they're getting their ass beat. So the way I look at it, when you look at how good Luca is, I don't think the answer is packaging a bunch of draft picks and targeting like some super expensive upside option like a Giannis or even like some of the really really expensive options out there that we've talked about. Like going like I don't think you should be sending three draft picks on draft night for Herb Jones. I think that would be a mistake. I don't think you should be sending three draft three first round draft picks on draft night for Trey Murphy. I think that would be a mistake. I think the move is when you are looking at teams like Boston and you're looking at teams like okc, they are finding rotation players on rookie scale contracts in the late first round. Like Hugo Gonzalez and Baylor Shireman have both been very useful rotation players for Boston as a 28th overall pick and a 30th overall pick. So you need to invest heavily in scouting. You need to have a much deeper roster of draft scouts that are doing a much better job of evaluating first round talent. Then you need to have another completely different set that's evaluating fringe draft talent. So guys that go undrafted, guys that go in the second round then you need to have an entirely different set of scouts that you hire specifically to scout pro personnel. That's just looking at guys that are not involved on other teams that are outside of the rotation that other teams might be willing to part with for one reason or another or might be planning on parting with that you think they're missing out on their talent and just grind like grind tape on the 11th and 12th and 13th man on every team around the league until you find an opportunity and you need to start getting wins there. I agree with you. I would not trade this year's first round pick. It would have been more complicated if Luka didn't flash this ceiling. Luka flashed this ceiling. Now, the way I see it, you need useful role players around them. Luca and Austin are your core. You need useful role players. You need to turn whatever that Pick ends up being 22, 24, whatever it ends up being. You need to turn that pick into a guy who can play for you next season. That needs to be your entire approach as you're going into scouting this draft. Who is that? Tristan Da Silva? Who is that? Hugo Gonzalez? Baylor Shireman? Who's that guy who can come in right away and play a role on my team? That needs to be the use of that pick. Why? Because if you hit on that and you sign him for four years, you have a rotation player that's making nothing compared to if you wanted to go get a guy who's making 18, 20 million a year, then I would look at those other draft picks that you have available and I would canvas the league for upgrades that are inexpensive. Somebody you can move a protected first round pick for a starter, that would be the type of move I'd be looking at. But this is a team that needs high level role player talent. Luka Doncic has shown that he can elevate a Marcus Smart, a Deandre Ayton, a Jake Laravia. He can make them into players that can play a role on a really good team the way that he showed in March. You don't need to go swinging for home runs, you need to start hitting singles. If you can get a second round pick that is a rotation player. If, let's say you get in this year's as you're turning over the roster this summer, you sign an undrafted guy, you sign a second round guy and you got your first round guy. If two of those guys turn into dudes who can play, that is a huge win even at the center position. Like don't get me wrong, if you can get Nick Claxton for cheap, go get Nick Claxton. But if Nick Claxton costs a lot, if he. If they want two first round picks, hell no. They want to Unprotected first? Hell no. Look at what the Charlotte Hornets have done with Moussa Diabate. Look at what the Celtics have done with Nemi Keda. Have a development win. Find somebody on the margins that is all about hiring. And this is where the Dodger Ification of the Lakers can help. Have somebody who can come in and and do that legwork to find those players for you. That is where the Lakers have been getting their ass kicked in recent years. Do you think shortening the season will make it harder for guys to get all those all time total achievements or make it more accessible with less wear and tear? Guys, I understand that there's a history element anytime you make a massive rule change, but I'd argue that kind of already happens incrementally. You don't think the counting stats around the league are weird, but because of the inflation of pace at this phase in NBA history, you don't think NBA basketball looks very different now than it did in the 80s and that that has some sort of impact on on historical evaluation of players. We talked about this with kobe. Every Elite 2 guard now is like a 60 to 63% true shooting percentage guy. Kobe was way below that, but so was every other two guard in that era. I'm already seeing that used to marginalize Kobe and what he accomplished in his career. So the reality is is things are going to change with the way that we evaluate guys historically statistically. You have to embrace the fact that, that it's more important to improve the quality of the on court product than it is to maintain the fallacy that there is some sort of like fairness historically as we're evaluating, evaluating players statistically. Yeah, if you shorten the season, no one's going to touch LeBron's all time scoring record. Who cares as long as the game looks better. Yeah, if we shorten the season, no one's ever going to touch Steph's all time three point shooting record. Who cares if we improve the on court product? That is the most important part of this. All right, two more questions and we're out of here. How concerned are you about the Timberwolves for the upcoming playoffs? It's been up and down, but mostly a down year and it feel, it feels like for them. Do you think they can make it three straight Western Conference finals appearance appearances or do you think they'll fall earlier? So this is tricky because the difference between this year's Timberwolves team and like last year's Timberwolves team is last year's Timberwolves team was generally unimpressive, but they were healthy this year. The thing with Anthony Edwards knee is strange. Obviously you have this patellar tendinosis with Jaden McDaniels, although he did make it a an appearance the other night. It's just a little bit different because of their physical wear and tear. I personally still think we're probably going to see especially because they get a week off next week. I think we're going to see the Timberwolves go into their first round series and look like a real challenge for Denver. The tricky thing is them having a mediocre season has put them into a tough spot. Had they been able to hold on to the five seed, they would have got that shitty Lakers team in round one and then they you know, I actually think Minnesota matches up pretty well with Oklahoma City like we've talked about and they might have had a better chance. But now it's like you got to go on the road to Denver, then you got to go through San Antonio, then you have to go through Oklahoma City. So them kind of, for lack of a better term, dicking around all season has put them into a tough position and they're physically worn down. So I'm lower on Minnesota than I was a few weeks ago, but I'm never making the mistake of underestimating the Timberwolves again. I do think that they'll come out a couple weeks in two weeks, a week from this weekend, and I think that they'll look like a legit challenge for that Denver team. Last question Hi Jason, it seems inevitable that Jalen Duran will get a $200 million extension this off season, and I think a lot of us Pistons fans are still in shock over how big of a leap he's taken from last season till now. That being said, at that price, we're essentially saying Durin's now the undisputed number two behind Cade. He's clearly taken on more offensive responsibility without sacrificing efficiency. But my question is what would you like to see from Durham to justify this price tag moving forward? An obvious one is more self creation. Per PvP stats, 64.5% of his shots come from assists, excluding putbacks. Being able to confidently throw the ball to him in the post to the free throw line would be would definitely take a load off of Cade. And if his mid range day continues to improve, I think he could become the new age version of Amari Stoudemir. Stoudemire, thanks as always for your content. So this is a good question. It comes Back to the philosophical debate we were just having a minute ago regarding centers. When you see teams that rely on high level shot creators, take Lamelo Ball with Charlotte for example, or Cade Cunningham in Detroit for example, or even I'd say Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum in Boston for example, it's easier to get more out of a center because of your high level shot creation and the fact that they function as play finishers. For the record, I think, you know, even though I want to give Paul Reed credit, is very good player, this is why Paul Reed's been very good at various stretches this season for Detroit. I look at the success stories of Moussa Diabate and the success stories as Nemi's Keda as and I'd even throw in Jalen Williams J Will with Oklahoma City, even though he's a very different type of player. When you can turn in systems where you have elite shot creators, when you can turn margins players from the margins into legitimate like awesome starting caliber rotation players, that position I think is the easiest position group to actually do that in. So does that mean you, if you're Charlotte, you let Musa walk? No. Does that mean if you're Boston you let K walk? No. I think you view them as stopgaps, I think you pay them and you view them as stopgaps until you find your next development success story. But you need to always be trying to churn out centers so that you don't have to waste a ton of money on centers. Now Jalen Duran, let's say he gets this 200 plus million dollar extension. To your point, the difference between either keeping him long term on that contract or looking to trade him will come down to that offensive development piece. If Jalen Duran becomes like a legit second option. To your point, if he becomes Amari Stoudemire, then yeah, you could justify that amount of money. But Cade is destined to become such a gifted perimeter shot creator that if for whatever reason you could develop internally another guy on a rookie contract that could be an awesome rotation piece at the center position, then you're better off divvying up that 50 plus million dollar salary slot among high level perimeter players because they're just harder to replace around the league. So again, you give them the money no matter what though, because you want to maintain the asset. Jalen Duran is so good that you'll be able to trade him if you have to. Same thing goes for Charlotte. You resigned Moussa Diabate, you resign Nimi Keita, and then once you have the replacement in house. If they're not justifying their salary at that point, then you can look to move them. But I would always as an NBA team be looking, especially if I have a high level pick and roll shot creator. I would constantly look, constantly be looking to internally develop centers because I think they're the most replaceable position. Whether or not Jalen Dern will be worth the money will ultimately come down to that offensive development piece. All right guys, that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. I hope all of you guys have a wonderful weekend. We have a jam packed week next week. We'll have our 10 big reactions from the weekend. On Monday we have Nick Wright coming on the show. We have Brian Windhorst coming on the show. We're going to have eight series previews before we get to Friday. All sorts of shit for us to get to over the course of next week. It's going to be a fun one and then we're in the playoffs and then it's our live shows every night after the final buzzer of those games. As always, I appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. I will see you guys on Monday.
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Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Episode: Hoops Tonight – MVP Narratives for SGA, Luka, Wemby + How Celtics’ Tatum/Brown Rank as All-Time Duo | NBA Mailbag
Date: April 12, 2026
Host: Jason (Hoops Tonight, The Volume)
This episode of Hoops Tonight centers around an expansive NBA mailbag, expertly hosted by Jason. The conversation weaves through the hottest narratives as the regular season closes—debating MVP frontrunners (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Victor Wembanyama), exploring the ceiling and legacy of emerging and established stars, and discussing team construction, coaching futures, and franchise philosophies. Special focus is given to where Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown rank as an all-time duo, contextual insight into various award races, and a deep dive into roster-building strategies for top teams.
Jason is candid, opinionated, sometimes irreverent ("they are getting their ass beat everywhere else"), but always analytical and grounded in real basketball nuances. He balances granular, data-supported arguments with big-picture perspective, time-capsuling where the NBA is—and isn't—headed as of spring 2026.
This summary delivers all of the episode’s main takeaways, key arguments, and most compelling moments, consistent with the original voice and depth of the conversation. It serves as a complete digest for both diehard fans and casual listeners.