“Hoops Tonight” NBA Contender Rankings with Kevin O’Connor (The Herd with Colin Cowherd)

Release Date: February 13, 2026
Guest: Kevin O’Connor (Yahoo! NBA, The Kevin O’Connor Show)
Host: Jason (The Volume)

Overview

This special “Hoops Tonight” episode features a full breakdown of the 2026 NBA title picture, with Jason and expert guest Kevin O’Connor ranking and analyzing championship contenders in a tiered format. They debate strengths, flaws, and X-factors for every major team as the All-Star break approaches. The discussion highlights how teams like the Thunder, Nuggets, Cavaliers, Celtics, and upstarts like Detroit and San Antonio stack up, with honest disagreement and deep dive insight on each club’s playoff hopes and ceilings.

Key Discussion Points & Segments

1. Methodology & Introduction

Timestamps: 02:37–03:46

• Jason explains the loose structure: ranking contenders in tiers (not set-in-stone) as a snapshot before the playoffs.
• Kevin expresses excitement: “I'm excited for the All-Star break...looking forward to discussing the top end of the NBA today because a lot of the conversation this week seems to be about the bottom.” (03:22)

2. Tier 1 Contenders: Clear-Cut Frontrunners

Timestamps: 03:46–16:47

Oklahoma City Thunder — The Versatile Favorite

(03:46–08:34)

• Both rank OKC safely #1, but not in their own tier due to flaws: guarded catch-and-shoot shooting, rebounding, point guard depth.
• Jason: “Shea is encroaching on Jokic for that best player in the world type of title...they have flaws, but they were an easy #1 for me.” (05:45)
• Kevin: “It's a matter of durability for this team...even if they are healthy, the rest of the West has gotten better.” (06:34)
• Depth additions like Jared McCain lauded for adding lineup flexibility.

Denver Nuggets — More Dangerous Than Ever

(08:34–16:47)

• Consensus #2. Discuss issues blending with Jokic back, particularly defensive schematic adjustments.
• Kevin: “Jokic is such a transformative player...for Denver, the lack of continuity...I'd expect they're going to fix themselves by the end of the season. I'm not concerned about them.” (10:46)
• Jason highlights lineups with Jokic, Murray & Gordon as “flashing that two-way ceiling.” (12:16)
• Kevin calls Aaron Gordon “an All-Star before he got hurt.” (13:57)
• Main Denver flaw: Defensive “gimmicks” needed to slow OKC; tough matchups against athletic perimeter teams.

3. Top East Contenders Emerge

Timestamps: 22:48–29:34

Cleveland Cavaliers — Rebuilt for the Playoffs

(22:48–29:34)

• Jason: “I am buying so much Cleveland Cavalier stock right now...they might be the most complete team in the East.” (22:48)
• Key upgrades: Defensive guards (Ellis, Schroeder), James Harden replaces Darius Garland, better shooting/spacing.
• Kevin agrees with Cleveland as #1 in the East but places them a tier below OKC/Denver: “They were not complacent [at the deadline]. I would have them [as] number one [East], like you.” (26:43)
• On Harden’s playoff rep: “He has some great highs in recent years, not just in his prime...he's an upgrade over Garland.” (28:17)
• Noted: Slight frontcourt physicality concerns and history of playoff inconsistency.

4. The Surging Minnesota Timberwolves

Timestamps: 29:34–36:00

• Jason puts Minnesota in his top tier due to its “fastball” — elite offense, defense, rebounding, and athleticism when fully engaged. (29:34)
• Doubts surround Julius Randle's consistency: “It's just hard for me to bet on him to be on in April and May and maybe in June for three straight months.” — Kevin (32:19)
• Still, Wolves can match up well with Denver & OKC in the playoffs due to size and switchability.

5. San Antonio Spurs — Young & Smash-Mouth

Timestamps: 36:00–43:14

• Elite in “crunch time,” top at limiting opponent runs, but flaws: youth, lack of playoff experience, major shooting questions.
• Kevin: “I hate the fact we have the same order, but the list is spot on.” (40:11)
• Both agree Wemby’s group is a perennial top-tier contender in the making, but playoff growing pains are doubtless.

6. Detroit Pistons — Most Impressive, but Not Flawless

Timestamps: 49:47–51:55

• Jason: “They’ve been the most impressive team in the league this year...mauling, physical team...but their 20th in half-court offense.” (49:47)
• Kevin: “28th in three-point attempts...Herder’s not changing anything...I’d have Boston here ahead of Detroit.” (50:55)
• Both recognize Detroit’s elite margins play, but scoring diversity holds them back as a title favorite.

7. Second Tier: Question Marks of Various Kinds

Timestamps: 51:55–63:31

Boston Celtics — Impressive Depth, Waiting on Tatum

• Jason: “Their 120 offensive rating without Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, or Jrue Holiday is a remarkable accomplishment.” (51:55)
• Both laud organizational culture and Joe Mazzulla’s system; doubts linger about frontcourt defense and Tatum’s recovery.

Houston Rockets — Can’t Quite Trust Them

• Jason: Strong on-paper metrics, but big clutch issues, over-dependence on KD, loss of Steven Adams, Amen Thompson’s spacing.
• Kevin: “I have them last...little belief in this team...bad development, questionable coaching, and Sengun's defense is a playoff problem.” (58:26)
• Noted: Sengun is the second-worst isolation defender statistically, and the late-game offense is “missing an it factor.”

8. Knicks, Lakers, and the Rest

Timestamps: 63:31–68:05

New York Knicks

• Jason: Best version of this era, but playoff defensive flaws (Brunson, Cat), and “the league around them is just better.”
• Kevin: Has them 8th, tier below true contenders.

Los Angeles Lakers

• Jason: “These are the teams who've fared better against top-10 point differential teams than the Lakers: Clippers, Portland, Utah, Atlanta, and Charlotte...” (65:50)
• Only path is “all-time great” playoff runs from LeBron, Luka, and Austin Reaves.
• Kevin: “They just don't have enough athleticism, don't have enough defense...all NBA player [Reaves], but it's too much to expect.” (67:09)

Philadelphia 76ers Mention

• Kevin throws out the Sixers in the final “anything could happen if Embiid’s healthy” tier.

Notable Quotes & Soundbites

• On OKC:
  “Shea is encroaching on Jokic for that best player in the world type of title... All those flaws are more what just pull them down to the same tier as everybody else.” — Jason (05:45)
• On Denver:
  “Jokic is such a transformative player. Obviously, you're better with Jokic...he changes the way you have to play stylistically, both offensively and defensively.” — Kevin (10:46)
• On Cleveland:
  “They're the most complete team in the Eastern Conference... shot creation between James Harden and Donovan Mitchell, high-level screen and roll threats, awesome spot-up shooting.” — Jason (22:48)
• On Minnesota:
  “Their fastball is so damn fast...they have the potential to beat literally every single team in the league.” — Jason (29:34)
• On San Antonio:
  “There's a chance we also look back...and we’re like, that is too soon. They should have been behind some of these other teams.” — Kevin (41:04)
• On Detroit:
  “They outscore teams in points off turnovers by 5.6 per game...but they're 20th in half-court offense. I would be surprised if they ended up hoisting the trophy this year.” — Jason (49:47)
• On Houston:
  “It's just another Kevin Durant team that seems to have a missing it factor...something’s missing, character wise about this Houston team.” — Kevin (63:31)
• On the Lakers:
  “It would require all-time great [playoff] runs from Austin, LeBron, and Luka to win the title. That’s way too much to ask.” — Jason (66:51)

Tier/Ranking Recap (by consensus)

Tier 1:

• Oklahoma City Thunder
• Denver Nuggets

Tier 2:

• Cleveland Cavaliers
• Minnesota Timberwolves (Jason slightly higher than Kevin)
• San Antonio Spurs
• Detroit Pistons
• Boston Celtics
• Houston Rockets
• New York Knicks
• Los Angeles Lakers
• (Kevin: includes Philadelphia 76ers as a wild card)

Tone, Flow, & Chemistry

• The tone is expert but accessible, with both hosts openly challenging each other's views and supporting arguments with stats and specific game scenarios.
• The conversation is brisk but never hurried, balancing macro observations (team trajectory, playoff experience) and micro details (specific lineups, injury effects, game plans).
• The friendly disagreement—especially on Minnesota, San Antonio, and the lower rungs of the top ten—keeps discussion lively.
• The overall vibe is that of two veteran analysts sharing the latest league pulse with heavy respect for nuance, injury luck, and historical precedent.

Episode Highlight Timeline

• 03:46 — Thunder pros/cons deep dive
• 08:34 — Nuggets, adjusting with Jokic back
• 22:48 — Cleveland’s top-tier credentials
• 29:34 — Minnesota’s ceiling and Randle debate
• 36:00 — San Antonio’s youth and playoff readiness
• 49:47 — Detroit’s strengths and half-court offense hole
• 51:55 — Boston’s culture, Tatum speculation
• 58:26 — Houston’s chemistry and late-game woes
• 63:31 — Knicks, Lakers, Sixers bonus round

Final Takeaways

• The championship field is deep but flawed—no “super teams.”
• Teams like OKC and Denver are a slight cut above, but the right addition or hot streak could launch an East team to the Finals.
• Playoff experience, health, and defensive adjustments loom large as swing factors.
• Detroit and San Antonio are “teams of the future” but face present-day half-court and playoff “growing pain” challenges.
• Look for Boston and Cleveland to rise with their stars returning to health, with Harden and Tatum as major wild cards.