← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Hoops Tonight - NBA Contender Rankings w/ Kevin O'Connor: Thunder & Nuggets BEST, sneaky Celtics, Lakers in top 10
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- [00:00]
Podcast Host / Narrator
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Lavar Arrington
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- [00:37]
Kevin O'Connor
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Jason
Tara Davis Woodhull and I'm US Paralympic Gold medalist Hunter Woodhull. As athletes, our lives are about having a clear path and a team that you can absolutely trust.
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- [02:23]
Kevin O'Connor
The volume.
- [02:38]
Jason
All right. Welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Thursday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having an incredible week. I'm very, very excited for today's show. You guys all know Kevin o', Connor, friend of mine. I've been on his show several times. I think he's been on our show once before this, but we've never done this specific format before, as you guys know. About once a month. I like to take a look at our contender tiers. Just a big picture look at how the championship landscape has shifted around the NBA now. To be clear, we're not married to any of these ideas. We reserve the right to change our mind at any point between now and the start of the playoffs. But this is just a snapshot of how Kevin and I feel about the landscape of championship contenders at this point. First of all, Kevin, how are you, man? How you feeling today?
- [03:23]
Kevin O'Connor
I'm doing excellent. I'm. I'm excited for the All Star break. Flying out to LA and yeah, hopefully it's a productive and fun time and reset the NBA season and come back and see this tank race and this contending race on both, both ends of the spectrum. Look, I'm looking forward to discussing the top end of the NBA today because a lot of the conversation this week seems to be about the bottom.
- [03:44]
Jason
The shameless tanking too.
- [03:45]
Kevin O'Connor
Yeah, it's crazy.
- [03:46]
Jason
Just the openly like, yeah, we're doing it. What are you going to do about it? You know. But yeah, I'm very excited for the home stretch of the season. Also in LA is fun too. I've got actually a lot of buddies who are going. I. This is like I have historically taken this as my first, my last little break before the. The playoff grind. But it being in LA this year, there's a lot of people going out there should be a fun one. All right, so we're going to keep very simple today. I'm just going to literally work down my list. Kevin is just going to mention whether he agrees or disagrees and if he disagrees, he'll say where the. Where he has them. We have divided our contenders into tiers. Tier 1, pretty self explanatory. These are teams that should feel great about their chances to win the title. These are teams that should be sitting in their locker room feeling like they have a real opportunity. And there's a level of belief that anything short of them winning the title would be somewhat of a failure. I have four teams in this tier starting with number one, and I'm almost certain we agree here, but I'm curious to see where you stand. There was a point this year where I had Oklahoma City in their own tier and I think that we've seen enough over the course of the last few months to show that they have some flaws. And to be clear, every team in the NBA has flaws. So I feel like it's important to mention that we're not just nitpicking strictly Oklahoma City, but the main flaws that have stuck out to me with them, they're a little bit creaky with their jump shooting under duress. So like specific types of shots. So like guarded catch and shoot threes, like more contested catch and shoot threes. According to Synergy, they're shooting below 30% on guarded catch and shoot threes this year. We've seen some examples in their losses where athletic teams that can rush them a little bit at the three point line, they can miss a little bit. They're 29th and rebounding since December 13th, although I would argue that that had a lot to do with Isaiah Hartenstein being out since he's come in the last six games. They're 18th in rebounding, which is not as bad. The main one to me is they're a little light on ball handling and they're so predicated on dribble penetration that when an A.J. mitchell is out or when a Jalen Williams is out, Shay obviously the offense falls off without him. They can struggle a little bit to break defenses down and that makes me just a little worried in terms of like Jalen's like soft tissue issues that he's had. Abdominal injuries can be a little tricky for for AJ AJ Mitchell, but overall this defense is the most reliable unit in the NBA to me by far. Shea is encroaching on Jokic for that best player in the world type of title. I think he's put some separation between him and Luka and Giannis. So overall all those flaws that I discussed are more what just pull them down to the same tier as everybody else. But they were an easy number one for me. Still to this point in the season. How have you felt about the Thunder, Kevin?
- [06:34]
Kevin O'Connor
I think. I think you're making the right call not putting them in their own tier. I think that's the main thing. I'm pretty like I can't imagine a very strong argument for anybody else being over Oklahoma City as number one in contender tiers, but it's just a matter of are they on their own level, how many teams are on the same level or not? And I think with you're making the right call there with not their own tier because of the injuries. The fact that it's just no team has done it for seven years. That's just the reality of the situation here. Everybody said Denver was going to repeat. Everybody said Boston was going to repeat. It's really hard to do, period. It's also hard to do when you're dealing with injuries. They've had guys out, SGA is out right now. Who knows if they're going to be healthy in April and May and have the ability to get to June. And so I'd have them number one. I mean, no notes on everything you said. Obviously it's all, it's all factual. Uh, it's just a matter of durability for this team. But even if they are healthy, the rest of the west has gotten better. And I think they definitely they went to a game seven against a, a Denver team last year that's not anywhere as good as it is this year. And so ultimately I think there's other teams that have a chance to defeat okc, whether or not they're healthy, considering some of the flaws on this team. And I think that's also why the like, it's a minor acquisition in some ways because the OKC is so deep. But adding Jared McCain, he's a great shooter and so he's just another weapon for Mark Dagnault, one of the best coaches in the league to have on his bench to turn to. If it's a series in which J Dub is out or the team is cold shooting, just have another shooter out there. Another option to add a different layer to their rotations and the lineups that they can play out there on the floor. If they do want to go smaller, have a more reliable shooter rather than the defensive player like Kayson Wallace or Lou Dort, whoever it may be. So I just think this team has so much depth, so much versatility, so much flexibility that they belong at number one for sure. But I wouldn't have them on their own on their own tier either.
- [08:35]
Jason
Yeah, I 100% agree. I, I think the optionality part that you're mentioning here is key. Like, so, for instance, like A.J. mitchell, one of the things I've really liked with him is he brings a level of first step quickness that really nobody else as a ball handler other than Shay has for okc, like Jalen to me is so much more of like a momentum driver. He's like a semi transition. Let me get into your body and spin off of you or euro off of you. It's, it's not so much like a straight speed attack as it is a power attack with a guy like Jaylen. So I love that A.J. mitchell brings a very different kind of dynamic as another point of a point of attack initiator for them or the the Jared McCain piece like you mentioned. It's just another option, another, another card that Mark Dagnal can play in any one of these situations. And I do think that there's something to be said too about the adversity they faced in the middle of the season with injuries. Like it was fun last night and throughout the last couple weeks watching different guys step up into more initiation because of the circumstances. Like Alex Caruso in his shot creation this year he's actually been sneaky pretty good this season. He's run 40 pick and rolls and he's generated 45 points including passes. He's done some work off the bounce. Chet those big late isos against Austin Reeves where he got to some good looks. Like those guys are all getting reps on the ball that I think are super valuable. But I, I figured we'd be on the same page there. No surprises. Number two for me, Denver's tricky because when you start to dig into the metrics, it's just messy because of all the injuries and even this recent stretch. I've actually, before we get into Denver as a team, I have a theory about why they've been struggling since Jokic came back and I'm curious if you agree. So my impression is that they got used to playing a very different style of defense when Jonas and Jokic were out. It was more switching, it was more like a contain and less dependent on rotation like backside rotation style of defense. Whereas with Jokic and Jonas back in the mix, they're running a lot more high drop and it's putting a lot more pressure on their rotations and I think it's just going to take them a little while to adjust back to the way they need to defend. With Jokic, what's been your read on just their kind of recent struggles since he came back?
- [10:46]
Kevin O'Connor
I mean, I think that's spot on. It's a defensive issue. I mean they've given up 120 in every game except for the last one against Cleveland when they gave up 119. They're, they're clearly struggling on the defensive end of the floor. And I think ultimately, I mean Jokic is such a transformative player. Obviously, you're better with Jokic. That's an obvious statement. But. But he's also a transformative player in terms of the way you have to play stylistically, both offensively he changes you, and defensively, he changes you. And I think for Denver, the lack of continuity they've had this year, I'd expect they're going to fix themselves by the end of the season. I'm not concerned about them. I wouldn't knock them any lower than two. We're on the same page there, having them second on our contender tiers. But ultimately, I think, like, it's tough when guys are in and out of the lineup. When you don't. When you have Aaron Gordon, then you don't have Aaron Gordon, you have Jokic, and then you find. You find a new identity. Without. Without him, it's hard to bring guys in and out and back to the team. And that they've had so many different starting lineups, so many different rotations, it's hard to manage. The fact that they. They've been able to win as much as they have so far this season within. Without Jokic and within. Without all those guys is pretty remarkable. And so I'm not. I'm not overreacting to this stuff. Tough stretch. They've also faced a lot of tough teams. Those losses are against OKC, Detroit, NY and Cleveland, and they beat Chicago. I mean, those are tough teams at the tough stretch right after YIC return. So I'm not. I'm not overreacting at all. For a team that's had as much lack of durability as they have.
- [12:17]
Jason
Yeah, you know, I. I think. I think it's just going to be, like, momentum. Like, I think within a week or two, they'll kind of get back in the groove of how they need to guard with Jokic, and I think they'll start racking up wins. I don't. I don't think. I think. Yeah, obviously it doesn't take a rocket scientist to think that Jokic is going to help them in the big picture when he returns. But the metrics are tricky. Like, they're 24th in defense this year. They've had constant injuries. They've been really bad on defense in clutch time. That happened again against Cleveland yesterday. But they have a 124 defensive rating this season in clutch situations. That's been 29th in the NBA. I think that's where you've really felt the loss of Aaron Gordon. I think Aaron Gordon has been such a pivotal piece for them to be able to ratchet things up defensively the way they need to. And if you're looking for like a specific metric to focus on as a point of optimism, They've only played 510 possessions this year with Nicole Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon on the floor together. But when they have they have a 130 offensive rating and a 106.5 defensive rating. So they've flashed that two way ceiling that you expect to see those from those guys. They have the best half court offense in the NBA by a mile. Even with Jokic missing a good chunk of the season. My main point of optimism with Denver and why I have them as the number two and the most likely team to make an upset run against OKC and hoist the trophy as I just think their core players are better. Like I think this is the best version of Jamal Murray that we've seen yet in the NBA. I think this is obviously the Gordon injuries make it tricky, but when you factor in the amount of polish he's added in the last couple years as a catch and shoot player and his ability to work out of the midpost and out of the low post like I think Gordon when healthy is better than he's been in recent years. Maybe not the same peak defensively but.
- [13:57]
Kevin O'Connor
But just like he was an all star. Jason, I thought he was an all star before he got hurt. Yeah, that's how good he was.
- [14:02]
Jason
Yeah, he was awesome. And then obviously Jokic is Jokic and then the role player depth is better than ever. Like just I think it's the best combination of Denver's core plus Denver's depth than they've had in this era. And so that for me is the main point of optimism. Do you have anything to add there before we move on or do it Sounds like you haven't met too anyway.
- [14:21]
Kevin O'Connor
I mean I have him at 2 and I think Jamal Murray, as you said, spot on. He best he's ever been. And Aaron Gordon prior to the injury was the best he's ever been as well. And so Denver, I mean for all the talk all the over the years about Yokich has never had an all star teammate. Well this year he's got, he's got one literally in Jamal Murray and he has another that could have been an Aaron Gordon if he hadn't gotten hurt. So this is the deepest, strongest, most flexible use the word optionality in regards to okc, while Denver's got a lot of that too. And so I put them right next.
- [14:52]
Jason
To OKC So one last follow up with Denver before we move on. So I had this one thought that arose for me specifically after OKC just smashed the Nuggets in Denver. Now, obviously it was one of Yokich's first games back, so no one's going to take that as just like the end all be all in this discussion. But one of the things that stood out to me this year is the teams that have caused Oklahoma City the most problems in their losses have been teams that have been super athletic on the perimeter and have rim protection. Do you have any concerns specifically, stylistically, in terms of the matchup with Denver just because of their inability to guard some of the way OKC likes to attack?
- [15:30]
Kevin O'Connor
Yeah, for sure. No doubt about it. I mean, look, I think Jokic in a series against OKC is just going to have to be a superhero. Jamal Murray and those guys, obviously they need to have durability. But no doubt, matchup wise, it's tough for anybody to match up against the Thunder when you have that many guys that can create off the dribble, that many guys who can defend with versatility outside. I think for the Denver Nuggets, it comes down to sometimes just this. This is just the reality of it. Like you said with with OKC earlier, Jason, their lack of shooting. We saw what Denver did to create issues for the Thunder in their series last year. Playing a lot of zone, turning the Thunder into a shooting team. I forget the exact numbers at the top of my head, but I think OKC in that series, when Denver played zone, took I think 45 or 46% of their shots from three. They turned them into a shooting team rather than a penetration team. And so Denver did that by playing a lot of zone last year. And so ultimately, can you change the way OKC wants to play? Denver did that successfully last year. Obviously they lost the series. Can they do that again? Or maybe is OKC going to have more counters of that and make it a little less competitive than it was this time last time around if they do end up facing off?
- [16:47]
Jason
Yeah, I think the easiest way I would describe what you're just saying is like, like, I think Denver has to be a little more gimmicky to get stops against okc. Whereas some, there are some teams like Minnesota, like San Antonio, that can do it more with their traditional schemes just because of what they present athletically. And it just like, like you said, it just puts a lot of pressure on Jokic, puts a lot of pressure on each guy to like kind of defend above their Pay grade, so to speak, in some specific roles. So this next team, I think is where we're probably going to disagree. I'm super excited to tell you guys about our new partnership with Vuori. Those of you guys who are familiar with Vuori have noticed that I've been wearing it on the show almost every day now for several years. Today I am wearing the Ponto Performance Half Zip, one of my favorites from them. It's straight up the most comfortable hoodie that I've ever worn, but it's also super versatile. It's something that looks very nice that I can wear out when I'm running errands or going to get lunch with my wife. But it's also like this super stretchy, dry fit fabric that I can wear when I'm going to play basketball here in Colorado. It's cold as heck and so sometimes I get up at, you know, 7 o' clock in the morning to go play basketball. When I'm doing my warmup, I want to have something on that keeps me warm but that I can still move around in. This works wonderful for that. And that really is Vuori at its core. It's super high quality clothing that you can wash a million times and it's going to hold up super well. I have items from Vuori that I've literally washed like 50, 50 times and they still look every bit as nice as when I first bought them years ago. And then they're super versatile, high quality, attractive clothing that you can wear out in formal settings, but that you also can use for everyday life in a way that will serve your needs regardless of the circumstance. They even have higher end fashion lines. Just an incredible catalog of clothing for you guys to check out. Vuori is an investment in your happiness for our listeners. They're offering 20% off your first purchase. Get yourself some of the most comfortable and versatile clothing on the planet@vuori.com Hoops that's V u o r I.com H o o P S Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions. Not only will you receive 20% off your first purchase, but enjoy free shipping on any US orders over $75 and free returns. Go to vuori.comhoops and discover the versatility of Vuori. Clothing exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions.
- [19:08]
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- [21:41]
Kevin O'Connor
Check us out on YouTube and listen.
- [21:42]
Jason
To Dudes on Dudes on the Iheart app or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [21:47]
Sponsor Announcer
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- [22:49]
Jason
I don't know where you have this team, so I'm really excited to see what you think, but I am buying so much Cleveland Cavalier stock right now. I have them as I think there was this kind of like cluster at the top of the east between Detroit, New York, Boston, Cleveland. You could maybe consider Toronto. They're kind of hanging on, but mainly those four teams. And I was going back and forth between that group all season long and I kind of was leaning towards New York just because of their combination of experience. And then I just thought that they had kind of figured some things out to improve specific weaknesses they had in previous years. But to me, the combination of bringing in Ellis and Schroeder, just two really good small guard defenders, which I think is going to be a huge value added against a conference that has a Tyrese Maxey and a VJ Edgecomb that has, you know, a Jalen Brunson and a Deuce McBride if he can get healthy from his injury. That has an Emmanuel Quickley and a Jamal Shed, that has a Peyton Pritchard and a Derek White. Like having those guys can struggle against bigger, more physical wings, but they are excellent defensive options to have against small, quick guards and so they've got a much better set of options for that specific type of matchup. And I just think overall there's this combination that Cleveland has of shot creation between James Harden and Donovan Mitchell, high level screen and roll threats between Evan Mobley and Jared Allen. Awesome spot up shooting. Like I'm watching that lineup last night against Denver and I'm like you're trying to guard Harden. Mitchell ball screens with a Jared Allen with Jalen Tyson and Sam Merrill spotting up two guys that are going to hit over 50% of their unguarded catch and shoot three. So, like, you literally can't leave those dudes open. And like every time Jaylon Tyson did get open last night, he knocked it down. It's like there was this play where James Harden drives down the middle and he kicks it out to Jalen Tyson at the top of the key. And as Harden's throwing the pass, Donovan Mitchell's in the corner going like this because he just knows it's going in because that's the level of shooting they have. So when I look at their combination again of shot creation, screen and roll, threats off, ball shooting, perimeter defenders and rim protection, I think they might be the most complete team in the Eastern Conference going into this playoff run. They're not perfect. I am still concerned about their front court getting pushed around in certain types of matchups. Maybe like a Mitchell Robinson or Jalen Duran giving them a lot of problems, as we've seen before in the past. But I just think in a amongst a group of flawed teams, they're the team I believe in the most. How do you feel about Cleveland at this point?
- [25:15]
Kevin O'Connor
I picked Cleveland to go to the Finals before the season, and then I moved off of them during the season. I'm kind of back on after the deadline. Acquisitions, like you said. Keon Ellis, Dennis Schroeder upgrading from Darius Garland to James Harden. I mean, they're going from a guy in Garland who didn't play, couldn't trust him to play, who couldn't stay healthy, to a player who is as durable as he. As he has ever been, still in his mid-30s. And James Harden, who, when they're both healthy, is still a better player. Harden's a better player. He's a better creator, a better playmaker. He's bigger. He's a more versatile threat for this team. He helps alleviate the load off of Mitchell. And you add Keon Ellis to that as well as a defensive presence. And Dennis Schroeder is another ball handler. Changes the complexion of that team. And ultimately I'm kind of back on for the same reasons as you, Jason, but I'm not sure about having them. Third, do you have a. You're having them in the same tier, same group.
- [26:13]
Jason
There is a Eastern Conference element to this. I think the Eastern Conference is a slightly easier, not. I shouldn't say slightly, substantially. It's not an easy path but it is a substantially, like, easier pathway to get through. So I think that's okay.
- [26:29]
Kevin O'Connor
Yeah, it's way easier.
- [26:30]
Jason
Exactly. So that to me was the. Like, you have to have an Eastern Conference team in the top tier, in my opinion, just simply because the conference is more winnable, if that makes sense.
- [26:38]
Kevin O'Connor
I think that's fair. I'd have them three as well, but I have them a tick below.
- [26:44]
Jason
So you only have two teams in the top tier?
- [26:46]
Kevin O'Connor
Only two teams. OKC and Denver? Only OKC and Denver. And Cleveland. I think I'd have three as well. I'd put them ahead of the Knicks. I think they're a more complete team. I'd put them ahead of Boston for now because Boston doesn't have Tatum yet, but they will eventually. So Boston should move up. And I put him ahead of Detroit. I think a lot of Pistons fans, if they're listening to this, are probably pissed off. They're like, really? We're number one in the east and you're putting Cleveland ahead of us? I just think Cleveland has a more complete team. They have more creation from different places. And James Harden, rightfully so. People talk about him as like a choker. It's just. It's the honest truth. He has had a lot of choke jobs, including last year in game seven against Denver when he had a seven point stinker. But he also had a brilliant game six. He also kept them in it in game one with another outstanding game with clutch shots down the stretch and overtime. He has some great highs in recent years, not just in his prime when the Rockets were going toe to toe against the warriors, but in recent years as he'd been in the twilight of his career. And so he's an upgrade over Garland. I thought Mitchell, I'm paraphrasing what he said summed it up very well when he said, this is a guy who's been in the playoffs, who's been in a Finals, who's been in these big moments. And it's true, Harden is choked, but he's also had some unbelievable moments in the playoffs against great defenses. And so this team upgraded at the deadline. They were not complacent. And so I would have them number one in the east like you, and third like you, but not in the same tier as those other teams. But I get your reasoning.
- [28:18]
Jason
So I think one of the things with Harden that gets glossed over is, you know, as a number two, there's a certain expectation for inconsistency. Like J dub had a 40 point game in the Finals. He had lots of bad playoff games last year. You know, like Jamal Murray is, has, you know, with Jokic, Jokic, you expect a certain thing every single night. Jamal Murray, it's like one night he might go for 20, one night he might go for 17. Like when you're dealing with a number two, you kind of expect a certain amount of volatility from that type of player. I think the bigger issue in recent years is he's been a number two behind two number ones that weren't up to the task. Joel Embiid obviously falls apart consistently in the postseason. I thought last year Kawhi Leonard outside of game two against Denver looked like a second tier superstar. He didn't look like a guy that was able to reach the level of the very best players in the league. And you know, Donovan Mitchell isn't necessarily one of those guys either. But in recent years he's been one of the most dependable, like 30 point per game, 60% true shooting playoff guys in the entire NBA. And so I, I feel like there's a certain level of reliability with that partnership that wasn't necessarily there with a Kawhi who would constantly get hurt and an Embiida would constantly get hurt. I think this is a, I think there's a lot of pressure on James Harden this year, but I think this is a situation that's set up really well for him.
- [29:35]
Kevin O'Connor
I'm with you, Jason. I mean it's, it's alleviate the load on him. He doesn't need to be 25 points per game like he was for the, for the Clippers.
- [29:42]
Jason
Exactly, exactly. And that, that's why like I'm not unaware of Harden's issues, but I've also, like you noticed that he's had really big playoff moments in recent years. And yeah, he has a certain limitation as a number two, but he's better than Darius Garland. And then also there's one other piece of it too. Like he is just so much better as a one on one defender than, than Darius. And he made a couple late rotations against Denver yesterday. One where he contested Tim Hardaway Jr. On a slip that I thought was a good on time rotation. He just, Tim Hardaway hit a tough shot and then he first forced a turnover on Jokic where he caught him with his back turned and made a rotation right to his left shoulder. Got there in time and got set so that when Jokic tried to pivot, he just ran right into Harden and turned it over. And I was sitting there thinking like with how much better he is. As a one on one defender than Garland. If he can just be attentive within the scheme and be in the right spot, he will be a functional defender in this group. I think they're going to have a hard time getting stops until Evan Mobley gets back because they're playing all these like shooting focused groups. But with Mobley and Allen out there and with their ability to cycle in Keon Ellis and different types of perimeter defenders, I think they're going to be able to get a lot of stops 100%. So Minnesota, this is the last team I have in my top tier and this is probably the team that I am highest on relative to consensus. But I just can't get off these this particular team and one of the main reasons why is first of all they are one of the most wildly inconsistent effort and energy teams in the league. And just talk to any Timberwolves fan about this. Like they will say we just have entire games, long stretches of games where we just are BSing and going through the motions. And yet in spite of that, they have insanely strong metrics. Top 10 in offense, top 10 in defense, top 10 in rebounding. I think they have one of the best fastballs in the league. Like when you put it like their best punch when it's like go bear protecting the hell out of the rim and all their athletes on the perimeter just hounding and guarding in the combination of big physical shot creators they have between Ant and Julius. And you got to include Nas Reed in this conversation. Jaden McDaniels has made substantial improvements offensively. I love the IO Da Sun Mo edition too. He had a big night last night. As I look at Minnesota, to me their fastball is so damn fast that they have the potential to beat literally every single team in the league. I think they would go into any matchup and feel like they have a real shot to win. They've provided real problems to Oklahoma City this year just because of their combination of big shot creators and shooting. It's big shot creators and shooting, but what they can do ratcheting up their athleticism on defense. I'm just such a big believer in their fastball that I have them in my top tier. Where do you have Minnesota?
- [32:19]
Kevin O'Connor
I wouldn't put him in my top tier, but I think we're pretty close to the same page. I mean as you said about with Wolves fans right now, I had Dane Moore, great, great coverage covering the Minnesota Timberwolves. He's outstanding. I had him on my pod on Monday and Dane and I got into the energy issues with Minnesota. This was ahead of that. When you're referencing with against the Atlanta Hawks, when Dosumu went off on the bench and showed why they went out and got him, the team looked better. Obviously Atlanta stinks. But the fact, the fact, the fact, I mean, look, it's still nice to see the team put in better effort, but with Julius Randle and Anthony Edwards right now in the middle of the season, the team is just not putting in the consistent effort that you would hope for. But if you're talking about championship contending teams, I think you're hitting the nail on the head, Jason, when it comes to this team's fastball and what their upside is. I would not expect that Anthony Edwards and Julius Randall are going to be giving such piss poor effort in the postseason in the way they are in the middle of February. I just, I have a hard time imagining that now with Randall there's a chance of that. Cause Randall is on and off and you don't know what you're going to get from him sometimes. And that's one of the things Dane talked about with me on my podcast where you know, Julius Randall has talked about it openly, how he's moody, how like he's talked about mental health, he's talked about going to a therapist and how to deal with that and yada yada. The fact is, is that when he's out, it's hard to get him back. And so Julius Randle is such a big piece of the wolves. He is such a significant, responsible role for how they operate offensively as the second ball handler behind Ant, as a creator on that team defensively, his role as well, that when he's off it's, it's a big piece of the puzzle that's removed. Chris Finch put a lot of responsibility on Julius Randle in part to engage him and keep him on as much as possible. And Julius Randle has been an all NBA player in his career. I've been a Randle critic since he was at Kentucky before the draft. I've never been a big fan of Julius Randle, but there's no denying what he's capable at, at his best. And it's just hard for me to bet on him to be on in April and in May and then maybe in June for three straight months. That just doesn't happen with Julius Randle ever. It never has for over a decade now. And, and, and I think they can still win in spite of him. But I think they need to win a championship with Randall on and that's a hard bet to make. I have a, I have a lot of concerns there and it won't surprise me if Minnesota feels like they're checking every single box this year. They have the rim protection and go Bear. They have wing, versatility, they have a superstar and ant. They have shooting. They have defensive oriented lineups, even guys like Jalen Clark coming off the bench. Jalen Clark's really good, Jason. He's a really good, versatile defensive player who can do a lot for you. The Julius Randle box I have a hard time feeling every level of, level of confidence in. So I, I don't know if I'd put them ahead of some of these teams in the east, like Boston with Tatum. I don't know if I put them ahead of teams in the west like San Antonio with the Wemby factor, but I have them in the same range. I have them probably four or five on my board just because of, as you said, the fastball. When they're at their best, it's hard not to believe in this team and. But that has a lot to do with Julius Randle, who I don't have a lot of trust in.
- [36:00]
Jason
Even just in that Thunder series last year, it was so like all or nothing with Julius. Like he would just have these absolutely abysmal games and then he'd go for 25 in another night. And yeah, I'm with you on that. I think the last piece of optimism I'll throw here for Wolves fans is I think of all the teams in the west, but other than maybe San Antonio, you're a team that feels really good about your shots against Denver and okc. Obviously, you've beat Denver in a series before. You have the ability to throw these two big lineups out that can cause problems for Jokic and forced turnovers. You've shown the ability to ratchet things up on Jamal Murray and hold him scoreless for long stretches in a playoff series before. So you have that piece of optimism. Specifically the OKC matchup I've always talked about with okc. You know, we talked earlier, the defensive matchup. Having rim protection and athletes on the perimeter is a huge part of guarding okc. But the second piece of it on the offensive end is like we even saw it last night with LeBron. Like there was a stretch where LeBron looked unguardable for OKC simply because if you have big shot creators that can pass, then you can pass through their defense and get these high quality three point shots. Now the Lakers have nobody who can Shoot. But Minnesota has tons of dudes who can shoot and so they have that combination. Like I remember in the win that they got, not the one where OKC was badly injured, but the one when they had all their guys in that game. I remember down the stretch it wasn't just Ant in his ability to get to his spots against Case and Wallace. It was Nas Reed throwing a quick post up of J Dub and hitting a little lefty hook off the glass. It was Julius Randall drawing multiple defenders on a drive into the lane that created an offensive rebound opportunity for Nas Reed. Like they just have this big skilled set of offensive players that I think can cause OKC problems. So if you're Minnesota, you like your ability to match up against the best teams in the league. And that's a big part of why I have them so high. Number five, I have San Antonio. There's lots of really strong metrics for them too. Their crunch time metrics have been insane. Their offense, for all the talk about their offense and I'm going to talk about their offense quite a bit, they're elite on offense in crunch time. They grab 40% of their own misses in crunch time. So they're an excellent offensive rebounding team. We've seen Wemby just like Superman himself to huge offensive rebounds late in games. They're really strong on the margins. They're top five in opponent points off of turnovers. They're top five in opponent second chance points. They're top five in opponent fast break points. They protect the paint well. I actually think they're much more of like a smash mouth team than anything else. They physically overwhelm teams. They can guard on the perimeter, they rebound, they attack the basket recklessly, they get back in transition, they take care of the basketball. They're just like this super physical athletic team at their core. My main reason for keeping them off the top tier is one single idea. Against elite defenses that have weeks to game plan. I think we're going to see a series of defensive adjustments. One either going under against their guard, specifically referencing like Steph Castle, Dylan Harper. I'd include Keldon Johnson in this a little bit. But going under against them and or putting bigs on them and basically daring them to shoot. And then we've seen this happen before. I think Julius Randall had a really good example in one of their wins against, against San Antonio where you just get a big forward and just get physical up underneath Wemby and push him up off of his spots and it kind of can turn him into a really difficult jump shooter in those situations. Now the spurs have a counter for this and that's the Deer and Fox pick and roll. And it's probably their safest and most like playoff resilient play type that they can go to is just Fox, Wemby pick and roll. But Fox is just not as good as some of the other offensive players who go against in the West. And so I'm a little worried about their offense kind of running into these cold stretches that stem from young, flawed players that still need some time to develop. But I can't like write them off just because of that idea because there's also the chance that Wemby just goes and is a wrecking ball and just kills everybody. And all of a sudden I'm feeling like an absolute idiot. But I just think I have enough question marks about their offense that it kept them off the top tier for me. And I have them at number five.
- [40:12]
Kevin O'Connor
I would. I'd also have them fifth, but I would have them a tier below Cleveland and Minnesota. So I'm on my third tier now. I have them on my third tier. I hate the fact we have the same order, but like the list is spot on.
- [40:30]
Jason
It's just.
- [40:30]
Kevin O'Connor
It's just the honest truth. I mean, I think. I think with Minnesota, I have them ahead of San Antonio because of the experience factor too. That. That's one thing we didn't mention in regards to Spurs. Yeah. And that's part of it. The experience factor is something to consider and San Antonio just hasn't been on that stage. And the point you made, Jason, about the shooting aspect with the spurs, it was my concern with them taking Dylan Harper in the drafts. It still is my concern now that do they have too many goals, Would.
- [41:04]
Jason
You have taken Con.
- [41:06]
Kevin O'Connor
Yes, I would have traded down a spot and taken Con or tried to trade down a spot. I mean, I think I would have taken Con straight up at number two over Dylan Harper. Can you imagine this team with Con canipple.
- [41:17]
Jason
Oh, man.
- [41:17]
Kevin O'Connor
Instead of Dylan Harper right now? I mean, Dylan Harper might. Dylan harbor might end up the better player long term. I'm not disputing that. I'm not arguing that. But Con can. Apple is by far the better player today. And I just can't imagine how the complexion of this spurs team would look if they had him shooting and spacing and secondary handling and instead of Dylan Harper right now. But I think that the point you're hitting on is why I do have some concerns offensively. They're crushing offensively right now. In clutch time, as you said. But come playoff time when teams are making adjustments and they're game planning and making these little micro adjustments in every single game at halftime between third quarters and all that that they don't do now, what happens when Darren Fox is having a cold shooting stretch? What happens when Dylan Harper isn't effectively spacing from outside and Stefan castle isn't having 40 point triple doubles? These guys like, these guys are subpar shooters, all three of them, Fox, Castle and Harper. And I just, I have concerns about what it's going to look like against elite defenses and a seven game series. And I think that's one of the reasons why the point you hit on about their offensive rebounding habits changing in clutch time, they rebound 30% of their misses for the full duration of a game. Middle of the pack, they're up over 40% in clutch time. They change the way they play late in games. They might have to change the way they play for an entire playoff series when it comes to that. Those real serious defensive adjustments are being made. And I think San Antonio belongs at 5. I have too much respect for Wemby and what those guys are capable of doing. They do have a lot of ball handlers, a lot of creation. They belong in the contender category. But there's a chance. We also look back at having them fifth and we're like, that is too soon. It's too soon. They should have been behind some of these other teams and that's why I put them on a tier below those other other groups rather than, and rather than next to Minnesota, next to Cleveland. Even though we have the same order, we have different groupings there.
- [43:14]
Jason
But very simply, you just don't see a team that has no playoff experience just run in and then get everybody. That's just not, that's just not how it goes. Like there's, there's, there's the pain and suffering of loss. Like, I think Shay's a better player than Luca now. I thought Luca outplayed him in that second round series. He kept burning him for helping off of P.J. washington in the corner. Like I thought that was a valuable piece of experience for Shai. Like Anthony Edwards got embarrassed by Luca and then got embarrassed by Shea in back to back Western Conference finals series where he was badly outplayed by both of them. Like that is part of the motivation that led to ant becoming this 62% true shooting, 30 point per game. Absolute monster at age 24. Right. Like I think Wemby, just like every other young star has to go through some of these battles and get humiliated a little bit and reminded that there's levels to this, that there's another, another additional layer that he needs to add to his game or to his workout regimen or whatever it might be. And I just think in general, because we're going to get into this with Detroit here in a second, it's not a lack of respect or belief in these teams. Like I think you and I both think San Antonio is going to be a perennial top tier contender. Like it's just, it's, it's going to be, there's going to be probably a five year stretch consecutively where we both have them in our top tiers. Like that's how much we believe in the Victor Wembanyama, Steph Castle, Deer and Fox Core. It's more just the timeline and that there's a process here that most of these teams need to follow. And similarly with Detroit, Today's show is brought to you by presenting sponsor Hard Rock Bets, the official sportsbook partner of the Miami Heat and the Orlando Magic. Thank you. No ball Put your hoops knowledge to the test on Hard Rock Bet. Between the NBA and college, every night is a chance to make a splash and win. And if you want to score a major bucket, shoot your shot at a same game parlight. Stack your picks on Hard Rock Bet and see your odds grow. But if you missed tip off, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet lets you live bet all game long from the first bucket to the final buzzer, so you're never too late to find a winner or grab that player that you had circled. If you haven't signed up with Hard Rock Bet yet, there's never been a better time. New signups can double their winnings on their first 10 bets with the max. $50. That's right. If you would have won 100 bucks on your bet, make that 200 plus. Hard Rock bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open up the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 plus and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833-playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia.
- [46:15]
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- [47:40]
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- [48:42]
Jason
Ready.
- [48:42]
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- [49:47]
Jason
I'd argue they've been the most impressive team in the league this year. Like it goes beyond even just the record. Every other team in the league has at least seven losses against teams in the top 10 in point differential. The Pistons are 10 and 4. That's far and away the best win lay of a 71% win percentage against teams in the top 10. And when in point differential. Houston is in second place at 58% so there's a 13% gap there. They have insane margin domination like they are a smash mouth basketball team. They outscore teams in points off of turnovers by 5.6 points per game, by 2 points per game in second chance points, by 5 points per game in fast break points and by 414 points per game in points in the paint. They outscored Charlotte last night 60 to 26 in the paint. This is a mauling physical team that I'm a huge believer in in the big picture, but they're 20th and half court offense. If they run into any team that can keep team keep things competitive on the margins, they're in some serious trouble. And so again big believer in Detroit. But I personally would be really surprised if they ended up hoisting the trophy this year.
- [50:55]
Kevin O'Connor
28Th and three point attempts per game, 22nd and three point percentage. They add Kevin Herder. Kevin Herder is not changing anything. It's just the reality he might not even play in the playoffs. I'd have Boston here ahead of Detroit. And I know Pistons fans are probably disrespected by that and very rightfully so. You're at the top of the East. I just think with Boston, they are that team, Jason, that you said can, that can match them on the margins and then also crush them in the half court when Jason Tatum returns. Boston has been very competitive in their games against Detroit this year despite not having Jason Tatum. I think when Jason Tatum returns, if he's 80% of his former self or 85% or 77% or 90%, whatever it is, that puts them as perhaps the best team in the east behind Cleveland. But I definitely put them ahead of Detroit and New York as that team. Right now that would be sixth on the rankings and that could move up for sure quite easily.
- [51:56]
Jason
So let's actually move to Boston for just a second. I have all these teams in the same tier, so we'll continue to work through the numbers. But I'm curious, since you mentioned Boston, I have Boston in the same tier, but I have them at nine. So that doesn't mean that there's some massive separation. It just means that in this tier I have them lower. My main thing, because I think. I think what Boston has done this year has been incredibly impressive on so many different levels. I think it's a testament to Joe Missoula and the system that he's implemented in the level of buy in that he's gotten over the last several years that has led to through continuity and through that buy in. Like them having a 120 offensive rating this year without Jason Tatum, without Christoph Sporzingis, without Al Horford, without Jrue Holiday, I think is a remarkable accomplishment.
- [52:39]
Kevin O'Connor
Crazy.
- [52:39]
Jason
It's a remarkable accomplishment. It's just the level of shock.
- [52:43]
Kevin O'Connor
And a top 10 defense, Jason. Yeah, I mean a top 10 defensive rating, too, without those guys.
- [52:47]
Jason
Yeah.
- [52:48]
Kevin O'Connor
One of the best defenders in the league.
- [52:50]
Jason
Yeah. I think organism.
- [52:52]
Kevin O'Connor
What do they do against KD with Ron Harper Jr. And Baylor Shireman starting that game? Are you kidding me?
- [52:59]
Jason
They have been deep in their rotation most of the season too. It has been. It has been so impressive. I just think organizationally this year has been just like a big giant advertisement for why the Boston Celtics can sustain success the way that they have over the last several decades. And I. I think, you know, the main reason why I have them in the second tier, why have them a little lower is just the question marks. Like, obviously if Jason Tatum comes back and he's able to be most of what Jason Tatum is, he helps in so many different ways including the. There's a defensive rebounding piece that I think he helps with a lot. There's a defending with their center's piece. So for instance, like I really like the Vucevich edition is one that I talked about actually before the deadline, mainly centering around the idea of he just was inexpensive and he gives him a very different look than Keda. I love that Missoula has been starting Keda in bringing Vucevic off the bench, but at the same time, like, you know, you have a certain type of matchup. Oh you know, in, in this particular game against Miami, they're doing a ton of switching. Let's have Vucevic close the game. He's a better look for us because he can do damage on the offensive glass and he can post up a little bit and all that kind of stuff. Right. Like I love that dynamic. But Vucha struggled defensively since coming to Boston. You know who's like the antidote for that? Jason Tatum, because he can guard opposing centers and switch ball screens and you can tuck Vuch bits away on a center on a non shooter somewhere elsewhere on the floor. And so like I'm a big believer that this could all come together into a bonafide championship run. I just think between the Tatum like just who knows what's going to happen with his injury and some of the implementation of Vucevich and some of the question marks surrounding that front court, it just was a little too question mark heavy for me to have them any higher. But I do believe in the upside.
- [54:44]
Kevin O'Connor
I think that's totally fair. I mean, in a way talking about Boston reminds me of talking about Minnesota for different reasons when you talk about the ifs. But I think their fastball is so fast, it's so significant, so hard to stop. It's the same reason why there's a lot of confidence in Boston being a repeat team because of what they're capable of doing when they're on and we'll see if they ended up getting Tatum back and if Tatum comes back, what he looks like and I believe he will come back, I don't see any reason to believe he won't. All signs are pointing towards him returning and Boston's roster, even without him, has looked awesome this year. Jalen Brown, the leap he's taken, the amount of flexibility they have. Not just sometimes it's Jordan Wall, sometimes it's Baylor Shireman, guys off their bench. Joe Missoula's got a Lot of options. And they believe in him. They believe in that style of play. And the fact that that game against Houston will stick in my mind, the fact they went in there without all but two of their starters, Kata and White, and beat him up, I just think it is a testament to the character of that team and the level of buy in together that guys who don't play went out there and were ready. And the guys who that are the typical starters, the typical rotation guys play with that same attitude and intensity. Boston's a real threat if they get to him back.
- [56:00]
Jason
Yeah, I think just the juxtaposition of them in Indiana. Now Indiana's had more injury issues, but you know, they've still had, you know, some of their core guys around and they've been borderline uncompetitive for, for the majority of the season. I just think, I just think seeing the difference between those two franchises, like if you're a Celtics fan, I was talking to Celtics fans over the summer, like, hey, like the best you could hope for this year is like Jaylen Brown looks good and you find two rotation players out of like discounted margin type type hits, you know, and you, you got, you, you got that and you got all the wins. Like that's the crazy thing. Like you, you find Jordan Walsh and he looks like a legitimate rotation piece. Jalen Brown does take the leap to becoming a bonafide all NBA level talent and you are like firmly in the mix for championship contention. Like just what an unbelievable season for Celtics fans. So you have Boston at six, I have Detroit at six. Moving on to number seven. I have Houston and you know, I had Houston as a top tier contender most of the season until this point. And I ended up dropping them down for a variety of reasons. They have really strong metrics like their top six in offense, top six in defense, top six and rebounding. I think that that is a strong indicator. Second best win percentage in the league versus teams that are in the top 10 point differential. We talked about that earlier with Detroit. The clutch stuff is what scares Everybody off. They're 13 and 14 in clutch games. They're bottom 10 in clutch offense and defense. The main reason I dropped them down from that tier is a combination of that, which I think is more of like an amendment Thompson spacing kind of thing and a Shangoon defense thing which we'll talk about in a second. But I, I think the loss of Stephen Adams removes a real dimension from the team. Like they in 1446 possessions this year with Stephen Adams on the floor. They were outscoring teams by 13 points per 100 possessions. Is it the look they would have closed every game with? No. Would there have been series and teams that could have played Stephen Adams off the floor? Yes. But it was a look, a dimension to the team that no longer exists. Now and then when I look at like, you know, the amendment, Thompson spacing issue, which I want to get into it a little bit here in a minute, the Reed shepherd thing where like if he's not hitting threes, the defensive liability stuff rises to the surface and then just in general, they're super reliant on KD offensively. It just kind of amounted to just one too many question marks for me to keep them in the top tier. So before we talk about the late game offense and that kind of thing, just big picture, how are you feeling about Houston at this point?
- [58:27]
Kevin O'Connor
I have Houston lower than you do. I think I have them last. I have them 10th on, on my, on my list. Personally, I just have a little belief in this team. I had a good amount of belief entering the year. I thought, you know, obviously the Fred Van Vliet gets hurt. I'm not a Fred Van V guy, to be fair. I'm a Reed shepherd guy. I'm an Amen Thompson guy. But those players are still young. They're still flawed. Amen. Thompson's inability to shoot the ball is an issue for this team and it will be an issue in the playoffs. Reed Shepherd. I don't think Udoka trust Reed Shepherd. I don't think he's empowered him in the ways that I would have hoped for with his shooting ability and his creation ability as a connective piece. I also question the coaching here with Udoka. I don't, I don't like the fact that he called out Shen Goon's defense publicly, even though it's true. I just, I just don't like the way this half court offense is structured. And that's in part his fault. It's in part the roster construction, but made by the front office. And I also just don't like the development of these young guys. Yeah, you don't have Fred Van Vliet. Okay. You have Reed shepherd who was taken with the third pick in the draft. Invests in that guy early on in the season. Don't play him for 10 minutes behind Aaron Holiday on some nights. It just doesn't make any sense to me. And ultimately the Shen aspect, even though Udoka, I, I don't love him calling it out publicly, saying, you know, he was asked About Shen Goon's defense being attacked. And he's like, it's been the case since I've been here.
- [59:57]
Sponsor Announcer
Whoa.
- [59:58]
Kevin O'Connor
Okay. The fact is, is he's not wrong. Sengoon is, you know, statistically, I believe, the second worst isolation defender in the NBA this season. Teams are going to attack him relentlessly, compose season time. I believe that's going to be a problem for them. And as you said, Jason, not having Stephen Adams, how important was that to them last year when that's all they had? Even this year, that too big lineup, the ability just to pummel the offensive boards and the size that presented it on defense. Now you don't have that. That's not an option for you anymore. And I just have little belief in this team. I still think they're a convincing contender, but I'd put them at the bottom of my list of potential contenders right now.
- [60:40]
Jason
Yeah, you know, the. The stuff with Shangoon on defense I think is fascinating because I don't. He's not as stiff. Like, he's. He's a good athlete for the center position. He should be better than he is. And so part of me wonders if this is one of those, like, bullying works situations where KD and Udoka are like, let me just see if we can humiliate this guy into getting him to play some defense. And I think ultimately, if there's a version of Houston that wins the title, I think it involves Shangun being a good defender. And so that's a. That's a bridge that he's going to have to cross at some point in his career, the late game offense. You know, I remember thinking about this a lot, this specific spacing concept in the series a few years ago when the Knicks upset the Cavs. And the specific dynamic that killed the Cavs in that series was Jared Allen in the dunker spot with Evid Mobley slipping out of screens with Mitchell and Garland and creating these two on ones with Mobley and Allen and with. With Mitchell Robinson as the. As the drop coverage bigger. I think he was more functioning as a low man in these sequences because Cat was going up to the level. And essentially, actually that was pre Cat, but it. But Mitchell was just on the back line and it would just create these two on ones with Evan and Jared and Mitchell and. And Evan, just like Mitchell was so good at like splitting the difference between the two and like making it so that like, we'll see these sequences with. With Sengun and Amen Thompson during the regular season where it's just beautiful. Like Katie draws too, hits Changun in the pocket, Amends there in the dunker spot, lob dunk. And it just looks beautiful. And like in theory it makes sense as a spacing concept until you run into Victor Wembanyama or you run into a Chad Holmgren or you run into some kind of center that can effectively like stunt at the role while also defending the lobby. And then all of a sudden it's like, well, now we can't have a men Thompson in the dunker spot. That doesn't work anymore. And now like in that spurs game, now you have Thompson whirling around with these dhos with Katie up top and it's just going nowhere fast. And that really is the thing where I just think this, there's a level of growth that we're going to need to see out of Amend Thompson offensively for this team to win the championship. That I think is more of a long shot in the context of this postseason. And so I think they will defend better than they have in crunch time. Like some of their crunch time defensive issues are just they got to play better defense. But this offense issue down the stretch, I do think it's going to turn into a lot of Shangun left shoulder hooks over multiple defenders and Kevin Durant tough contested mid range jump shots. And that's just a lot of pressure to put on those two guys to make shots. And they already have turnover issues in those situations that don't make it any easier. I don't necessarily think the late game offense issues are going away.
- [63:31]
Kevin O'Connor
I don't think it's going away either. And it's also just another Kevin Durant team that seems to have a missing it factor. And that's an element that is hard to measure. We can't look at stats about that. But. But there's something missing, character wise about this Houston team. And it won't surprise me if they're one of these teams that flame out early. And when you talk about the YANA sweepstakes this summer, if that does drag into the summer, if they're the team that says, you know what, screw it, we do have to make a big.
- [63:59]
Jason
Move, wouldn't be surprised. All right, we're going to go kind of rapid fire. We have two more teams that we have to hit at number eight. I have the Knicks and I actually like, this is the most I've liked a Knicks team in this era. I think their wings are all better versions of themselves, like Josh Hart's shooting the ball and doing more offensively than he's ever done. Mikhail's way better defensively than he was last year and it shot the 3 a lot better. OG is just an incredible player. He's like one of the few, like really highly paid role players that's like worth every penny. Like OG An Adobe's been really good for them. I think they're deeper. I think they play a better brand of basketball on both ends of the floor than they have in recent years. They generate so many more catch and shoot looks because of the way that they attack early in possessions and how much more they trust the pass. Last year they straight up couldn't beat good teams. This year they've beat more good teams. Another really impressive win against Boston the other day, although I thought that was one of Boston's just worst all around performances of the season. But I have to keep them in the second tier just because of their extensive track record of playoff issues. Just their defensive entry points between Cat and Brunson. Cat's also extremely mistake prone. I have it like burned in my brain, him crashing off the top of the key against the Pacers and giving up runouts to Siakam because he just doesn't understand transition defense. And also the league is just better around them than it used to be. So even though I think this is a better version of the Knicks than in recent years, I just don't view them as. As substantial as a threat as you would think for how much better they are than last year.
- [65:20]
Kevin O'Connor
Yeah, I think that's spot on. I have them 8th in a tier below San Antonio, Boston, Detroit. I have four tiers. I have them eight as well.
- [65:34]
Jason
Okay, so I have Boston at nine, which we already talked about.
- [65:37]
Sponsor Voice
Yep.
- [65:38]
Jason
Last team that we'll hit today. This is a break for me. So I go down to the third tier and I think there's a couple other teams that you could put in this tier. Like I think you could include Jason.
- [65:46]
Kevin O'Connor
Yeah, you have them tier one. Just say tier one. Lakers.
- [65:51]
Jason
So I have a funny stat for you. I have Lakers at 10. These are the teams who have fared better this season by win percentage against teams in the top 10 in point differential. The Clippers, who started 6 and 21. Portland, Utah, Atlanta and Charlotte. All five of those teams are below.500 have been better this season against teams in the top 10 in point differential. Even. Even during this recent run where the Lakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season, they're. They're 8 and 4 in their last 12 games before the OKC game in that 8 and 3 stretch, it was their first 10 plus game stretch of the season where they were top 10 in both offense and defense. So like they're finally starting to play some good basketball. In that 8 and 4 stretch, they are.03 against teams that are in the top 10 in point differential. They got crushed by the Knicks. They got crushed by the Cavs. They got crushed. They're not crushed by the Thunder, but they end up losing that game to the Thunder. So the counterpoint to this that any like optimistic Lakers fan would pitch is like, well, our big three has just never been healthy. And when they're healthy, maybe they can reach a level of offense that is just able to compete more with some of these better teams in the league. But for me, just the lack of athleticism, the lack of shooting, it just would require an all time great three dudes playing at like a second team, all NBA or better level between Austin, LeBron and Luca for them to go win the title. And I just think that's a, that's way too much to ask. So I have them in that third tier.
- [67:09]
Kevin O'Connor
Yeah, I think that's fair. I have a ninth ahead of this. The, the Rockets. I throw the Sixers in there as well. Okay, why not? What if Embiid stays healthy as an 11th team? I want to believe. I want to believe. So my final tier would be Knicks, Lakers, Sixers, Rockets. So I have 11 teams, four tiers. You have 10 teams, three tiers. But I think you're spot on about the Lakers. They just don't have enough athleticism, don't have enough defense. I think Austin Reeves is for real. I think nationally a lot of people don't quite believe that he's as great as he is. He was an all. He was an all NBA player prior to the injury. Just the reality of how good he is. And he's been that good since his return. Of course, coming off the bench with fewer minutes. But the dudes, for real. But it's just too much to expect this all time level 1:40 offensive rating, seven game series. I don't, I don't see it happening for three straight months.
- [68:06]
Jason
Me neither. Kevin. This was incredible. I really enjoyed this pod and I sincerely appreciate you giving us your time. Why don't you tell everybody where they can find your work?
- [68:14]
Kevin O'Connor
Thanks for having me, Jason. The Kevin o' Connor Show. You can find that anywhere you get your podcast or check out the Koc show over at Yahoo. NBA. That's our new YouTube channel.
- [68:22]
Jason
Hell yeah, dude. It was good to see you. All right everybody, that's all we have for today. As always, we sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. I hope everyone has an incredible weekend. We'll be back Monday with Power Rankings. I will see you guys then.
- [68:41]
Julian Edelman
This is Julian Edelman from Games With Names. I want to take a second to talk about something that's personal to me. I've had the privilege of working closely with Robert Kraft for a long time, and one thing I've always respected is how seriously he takes up standing up to hate. As a Jewish athlete, my identity is something I am proud of, but I also know what it feels like to be singled out for it. That's why this new commercial for the Blue Square Alliance Against Hate that aired during the Big Game really hit home. It's about showing up for someone when they're targeted, even if you don't have the perfect words. And sometimes standing next to someone is enough and you can show support by.
- [69:22]
Jason
Sharing the Blue Square Think Verizon is expensive?
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Jason
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Jason
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Podcast Host / Narrator
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