← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Hoops Tonight - NBA Contenders: Will Warriors stay hot? LeBron & Lakers obstacle, who stops Celtics
01:20:14
Loading summary
Transcript99 lines
- [00:02]
Jason Timpf
The volume Getting some holiday shopping done this weekend. Pick up some touchdowns. They're on sale at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NFL. What else would you expect from the number one place to bet touchdowns? DraftKings has door buster profit boosts and bet one get one promotions on all types of touchdown bets. The current favorite to win the super bowl is the Detroit Lions at +2.50 and the Kansas City Chiefs in second place at +450. Be sure to check the DraftKings sportsbook app all weekend for flash deals that will have you dancing in the end zone. Grab some TDs with DraftKings sportsbook. They're on sale from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. Download the DraftKings sportsbook app and use code HOOPS to opt in. That's code HOOPS HOOOPS only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER in New York, call 8778 Hope NY or text HOPENY to 467369 in Connecticut. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 880-867-897777 or visit ccpg.org Please play responsibly on behalf of Boot Hill Casino and resort in Kansas. 21 plus. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. One bonus bet per customer based on amount of initial touchdown bet and expires 168 hours after issuance. One single use boost per customer that only applies to winnings. See sportsbook.draftkings.com promos for additional terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Wednesday everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great week. I figured now right before we head into our Thanksgiving break is the best time for us us to touch base on contenders. And I've done a lot of power rankings. I've done a lot of game breakdowns, I've done a lot of film breakdowns. I've done a lot of arguing of various sorts, but I have yet to re approach my contender rankings and so what I'd like to do is do what I've done every time. We've done contender rankings over the last couple of years, which is have my good friend Sam Bassini from the Athletic on the show to break it all down. First of all, Sam, how are you doing man? How is life down in Melbourne? No Thanksgiving there.
- [02:15]
Sam Vecenie
I hear life is great. We, you know, Thanksgiving, unsurprisingly, given the nature of what Thanksgiving is with the Pilgrims and the Indians or The Native Americans, I'm sorry, coming together and, you know, having a meal. That didn't really happen here. So, you know, at the end of the day, my wife's father is American and by nature my wife is American because of that, she's dual citizenship. So we had like a little get together with, you know, 15, 20 people, some of my wife's parents, friends and everything. And, you know, we have a Thanksgiving meal every year just on the weekend, not on Thursday. My. My Thursday will be a normal Thursday for me.
- [02:56]
Jason Timpf
Thursday is a horribly inconvenient day for us to do this giant amount of cooking and socializing before we all go back to work on Friday. My wife works in retail, so she end up ends up having a crazy day then. I used to work in retail ages ago. So, like, it is what it is. But any excuse to cook some turkey or a prime rib or a big prime rib family, that's something that we do around our house. But I want to start on a very basic concept, which is when we did our contender rankings to start the year, I had four teams in that tier, which was Boston. I had Denver two, and then I had OKC three, and I had New York for you had Boston and Oklahoma City on their own tier. I've watched quite a bit of Oklahoma City this year, especially in the last week, and I'm actually starting to view Boston as on a tier by themselves. And my case for that is not that Oklahoma City doesn't have the potential to improve because they've underachieved a little bit offensively to this point in the season. And I know that they'll get better in time. And I'm liking the early returns on Isaiah Hartenstein, both as like a connective passer and also as a screener and all that kind of stuff. The thing specifically that has me a little hesitant with Oklahoma City, and I want you to either talk me off the ledge or agree is their decision making in the half court. Kind of reminds me of Boston a few years ago, where their talent is almost the enemy of their success sometimes and their pursuit of the best shot or a great shot is not quite where it needs to be relative to where Boston is, where you can tell they have their stretches of bad shot selection, but they're better at settling down and maintaining focus for longer. So what have been your concerns with Oklahoma City's offense and do you still consider them to be on the same tier as Boston?
- [04:38]
Sam Vecenie
So I would have Boston. I think I said I had Boston 1A and Oklahoma City 1B, previously, I think that if we're, you know, doing the tier system here, I would probably have Boston at number one, Oklahoma City at number two, but would have Oklahoma City, like, if Boston is the highest end of that tier, maybe Oklahoma City is like the lowest end of like what a tier one team looks like. And the reason for that is, look, we'll talk about the offensive things that you brought up, and I think they're all valid. Actually, I do. Oklahoma City's defense to start the year, like, when we talked about Oklahoma City, I think I said that they were almost guaranteed to be like a top three defense. Like almost no matter what they did, that's probably where they're going to be. Do you know what they were defensively before Chet Holmgren got hurt and they had to start experimenting with these like Jalen Williams at the center lineups? They were number one by mile. They were not just number one, they were number one by like 8 points per 100 possessions over number two. They had a 97.5 defensive rating in the game before Chet Holmgren got hurt. So we all expected, hey, team, that was a top five defense last year goes out, gets Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, two of what I would argue are probably in the top 15 to 20 defenders across the entire NBA and adding them into your lineup, along with improvement from Kason Wallace, who is another really, really good defender. You know, it was very hard to envision this team not being a super high level defense, but I think I somehow underestimated how good they might be on defense. So that that's where I would start and why I think that they are in that top tier with Boston because they still have all the lineup flexibility that we talked about in the preseason. The ability to match high or match big with Kristaps and Al Horford or matchup against Jokic, or the ability to go small, which they've now gotten to showcase with like hyper super small lineups with Jalen Williams at the 5, let alone just like the flexibility that having Chad at the five brings you in terms of five out spacing. So I'm excited about that, the offensive decision making, the overall offensive flow, especially late in games. I do agree with you generally that it can get a little bit stagnant. I think that in general, Shay Gilgeous Alexander and Jalen Williams are great players, great drivers of the ball. They're not selfish players by any stretch of the imagination. I just don't know that they consistently make the super, super high level reads all the time for Two guys that are going to have the ball in their hands late in games. You know, it's not like Anthony Edwards level, which has been, you know, somehow. I don't know if he's regressed. We'll probably talk about the Wolves a little bit later. But he feels like he is certainly not taking a step forward in regard to late game decision making. They're not that level in terms of frustrating, but I do think that they need to take that next step forward in terms of being able to consistently just make the high level reads over the last five minutes of the game when defenses really tighten up.
- [08:04]
Jason Timpf
The point you made about the defense is important and it's one that I think I've undersold in my coverage of Oklahoma City in the sense that like, they have a lot of the similar kind of like perimeter athleticism, strength, ground coverage, all the stuff we've talked about, the ability to pressure the ball, keeping waves of defenders coming in the game. The one difference is Boston just has a little bit more size on the perimeter just because of the Tatum Jalen Brown piece. But I, in a weird way, like, I think Lou Dort kind of has a lot of size in his own way. Like, I don't think it's a coincidence that Lou Dort made Luca feel a hell of a lot more uncomfortable than Jaden McDaniels did, for instance, last year. The piece that makes it different is everyone talks about Kristaps Porzingis as the rim protector, right? It's like, okay, we got our rim protector back. Boston doesn't really have a rim protector. This is that other element of that, you know, kind of elite defensive profile that we've seen over the years. That said, like, Chet is a rim protector that also has ground coverage and that, that is the thing that makes him so terrifying. And what makes that entire unit so terrifying is like they can engage in high level defensive, you know, process that we've seen around the league in terms of keeping Chet at the rim, which we've already seen. Like, we've seen stuff like him communicating with guards off ball to make sure he's always the low man instead of getting pulled up high and things along those lines. And you, when you combine that with the layers of perimeter D, I actually would agree that I think Oklahoma City can actually get to a higher level defensively than Boston can get. The. There are like, Oklahoma City started to freak me out a little bit in the Dallas series with their incessant challenging of their rim protectors. I said this on my show Yesterday it kind of reminded me of Boston against Milwaukee in the second round of 2022, if you remember where those idiots kept trying Brooke Lopez at the rim? The series kept oscillating back and forth when Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum would make better reads when they got to the rim, you know what I mean? Like, because they, they had the ability to get great looks whenever they wanted to, but they would bog down too often through that bad process. And so I think, like, I remember coming into the season, I talked about how my main concerns were, like, Jalen Williams and Chad Holmgren are basically your number two and they're very young and very inexperienced and they're going to be asked to carry significant stretches of basketball in big moments. And so that is the part to me that I get, I just get a little bit concerned about is just, are they grown up enough to be in a big playoff game against a really good team late and to make the right decisions they need to make? Because as we look back on Dallas, Sam, Dallas is good. I think they're firmly in that second tier of championship contending teams. But I didn't think they were in the top tier last year. I thought they were a team that caught some favorable matchups and got out of the west, which means, Means, okay, see, basically got upset in that second round series by Dallas. And so there, I would argue they're further away than, than that series would lead you to believe. And so I, I'm just, I'm just a little bit skeptical of that decision making process. What have you seen from Jalen Williams that makes you feel like he might be ready for that sort of thing this year?
- [11:20]
Sam Vecenie
Everything is kind of the answer. Jalen Williams has been unbelievable. If you look at his last 10 games since they've been, you know, basically without chat for a large portion of that run, he's really had to step. He's averaging 25 points, seven rebounds, six assists versus only 2.3 turnovers, 2.2 steals, 1.3 blocks. I think he is also sneaky, taking a big step forward defensively without a lot of people necessarily recognizing yet. Oh, by the way, he's shooting 57, 40, 94 over that run in his last 10 games. So again, like, Jalen Williams is one of those guys where I think you and I have been talking about him for like three years as if there's a guy I'm betting on in the league right now that you know people, you can't give me enough stock of his. Basically there's not enough there's not enough out there that I won't just buy it all and be happy with the results at a certain point. To me, he's going to be an all NBA player in this year. He is starting to take steps toward being that. At the very least, so far I think he has been one of the 10 best players in the Western Conference to this point. So you see where he is going. And I still think that there are moments, kind of like we discussed where late in games they do give him the ball quite a bit and he does need to just continue to improve. Small decision making issues in terms of over driving to the basket. For some reason and I can't quite figure out what this is, he is like the most like physical dude. He drives and slashes constantly. He is physical at the point of attack. Defensively, he just does not draw fouls for whatever reason. Even in this great run where he's been unbelievable, he's still only getting three foul shots per game. I don't know if it's a, like, I can't put my finger on if it's a, if it's a footwork thing where he's kind of leaning away. If it's a thing where he just doesn't have their respective officials yet. I think that might be part of it. Honestly, I can't tell why he doesn't get calls around the basket, but he does drive into the basket pretty regularly in a way that you would expect him to eventually draw fouls. That's really the next step for him. If he starts drawing fouls in the way that somebody like Jimmy Butler does. And he has the ability to do that because of his physical frame. Like he can take contact, absorb it and finish through contact. I don't, I don't know, man. Like, that guy looks like he could be a top 10 player in the league at some point. And if you have him and Shay, maybe it's a year early, you know, maybe he doesn't work out those kind of issues and doesn't get to the line enough and things like that happen. But I, I don't know. They just might not be as good as Boston. Like Boston was terrifying last night against the Clippers. At the end of the day, like they were insane. That was Kristoff's first game and like you could just see the impact he had immediately. Like they start, they didn't know what to do. Like they started with Zubots on him and then they started running. Like even with bench units because they have Hauser and Pritchard come in like, they'll run Pritchard and Hauser as ball screeners. They'll run them as the back man in stack, pick and rolls. They'll do like early exit stacks. They'll do just like late release stacks where a screener gets there. They will like run all sorts of different options in terms of trying to find, you know, creative avenues in transition. If you are off even by the slightest, smallest angle in transition defense, if you are overloaded to one side by one person, they will kill you because they will spread out to the three point line and they will make shots at a 45 to 50 clip, probably in transition. So. And then on top of it, you saw the Clippers trying to adjust. They would go, okay, we're going to put Zubots on Drew Holiday. That didn't work because then you've got a smaller guy in KP and kp.
- [15:16]
Jason Timpf
They put James Harden on KP as the primary defender for a stretch of that game. It was insane.
- [15:21]
Sam Vecenie
It was just like, well, okay, I get it. Maybe you want Zubots to be the help defender and you want him around the basket. They use Drew Holiday as a cutter pretty regularly, but Drew Holiday is a freaking all star in multi time like gold medalist. He's able to take guys off the bounce on the perimeter. He just doesn't do it because he doesn't have to within that offense. So they just have so many different ways to beat you. At the end of the day, that's my main concern and main issue. If I was Oklahoma City, look, Boston's the best team in the league. Like that's the reality of this. And their, their highest level is better than anybody else's highest level. It's just whether or not they get to the playoffs clean. I think.
- [16:00]
Jason Timpf
Yeah, I'm on the same page with you. I think I would, I think I make them a slight favorite to win the title. Even if Porzingis never played another game this year like that. That's, that's, that's how I feel about them in general as is. So yeah, yeah, the, the James Harden and Porzingis thing was, was a little weird because I'm just watching James Harden inattentively stand around as pork just walks inside position on him and gets an offensive rebound put back. And I'm like, what are we even doing here? So we're on the same page there. The Boston's level one. It just sounds to me like I have OKC on kind of a separate tier and you kind of have them as just like kind of hanging on to that top tier, just kind of almost at that level. So the next two teams that have been big surprises in the early part of the season, a couple things that make it difficult to interpret. For instance, the Cleveland Cavaliers have 17 wins, but only four of them have been against teams that are currently.500 or better, which makes them difficult to interpret. And then the Golden State warriors are 12 and 5 in the Western Conference. Do you give either of those teams a real chance to win four playoff rounds based on what you've seen from them here in the early going?
- [17:21]
Sam Vecenie
The Warriors, I think no. They're the easier answer to me because I feel like the warriors are getting by with depth and with like 11 man lineups. And Cleveland is too, by the way. Like, that's an underrated thing that's happening with the Cavs. Like, their bench has been unbelievable to this point, led by Ty Jerome. But, like, the warriors, it feels like, are getting by with just, like a ton of really smart basketball players that know how to play the game, that know how to run that scheme. And I don't even know that they necessarily have unbelievable ways to, like, match up with you. Like, they, they don't have an enormous front line. Right. Like, Trish Jackson. Davis is an undersized center. Kavan Looney probably isn't, like, totally undersized, but fun. Looney just, like, might not be good enough anymore to, like, anchor a defense. So they're almost always going to have to go small, right, in order to get the most out of their lineups. And if you go small against, for instance, the Denver Nuggets, if you go small against this iteration of the Oklahoma City Thunder, I think you're going to have problems now if. Because they can go big against you and they can go Hartenstein and Chet. Once we see Chet back, and that's a whole other thing. Like, what is Chet going to be once. Once he gets back? From what I understand about the hip injury, it's one of those.
- [18:39]
Jason Timpf
What have you been hearing that?
- [18:40]
Sam Vecenie
It's a. From what I understand, it's just like a pain thing. It's not something that will, like, inflict upon his mobility moving forward or, like, even once he heals from it. It's just literally like when the pain stops kind of thing. And once the injury itself, the fracture heals. Right, so.
- [19:02]
Jason Timpf
And there can be lingering pain from fractures for a while, too.
- [19:05]
Sam Vecenie
Yeah, Like, I think he'll be back this year. It's just like, look, I can't sit here and tell you, like, the Level that he's definitely going to be back at. But that. What I will say about Chet is like, you know, people look at him, he's missed his whole rookie season. He's going to miss a portion of this year. Now, don't mistake that with, like, a lack of toughness, necessarily. Like, he suffered a serious injury in that Pro Am game. He suffered a serious injury where he fractured that bone in his hip or whatever in this game against the Golden State warriors, who were talking about and Andrew Wiggins. So don't mistake that, though, with a lack of toughness. Like, Chet Holmgren will get out there and play. He will play through the pain. Like, if Oklahoma City allows him, it's just whether or not he's going to be able to or not. Don't. Don't take that, you know, one way or another in terms of his lack of pain tolerance on the Warriors, I. I just don't know that they have enough talent. It's kind of where I'm at with them. Like, they have a lot of depth. They have a lot of interesting depth. The cool thing about them is that if a star comes available for whatever reason this season, they are very well positioned to be able to go get that star. If they want to extend out the Stephen Curry window, they have Jonathan Kaminga, who they decided not to extend, which makes him a potential trade target. They have all of their picks moving forward, which gives them a number of potential avenues to create deals. Even somebody I, I think, like Cam Johnson would really help them immensely just in terms of offensive flow structure, consistent spacing, when Buddy Healed isn't on the court. Buddy Healed started the season incredibly well over his last, yes, six or seven games. He's cooled way off, and he's really hard to have out there defensively. So there are matchups where he's going to have it. There are going to be nights where he has it. But what do you do when he doesn't have it is a big question for Golden State on offense for me right now. I mean, where do you fall on them? Let's start with. We go to the Cavs here.
- [21:10]
Jason Timpf
I found the warriors to be kind of proof of concept of a couple of key things that you and I both believe in at a really high level in terms of our kind of, like, basketball worldview.
- [21:21]
Sam Vecenie
Yeah.
- [21:22]
Jason Timpf
And like you said, depth. I think it's not just depth. It's a depth of a specific type of player, which is, like, a fast player who's pretty good at everything. Like, not necessarily. Like, there's Thinks.
- [21:34]
Sam Vecenie
Thinks fast.
- [21:35]
Jason Timpf
Yes, exactly. And like I, I've thought so much about just kind of the way the game has changed, particularly in the regular season. And I'm glad you mentioned that there's a talent limit there because this has been something that's been a difficult pill for some warriors fans to swall over the course of the start of the season. And I don't blame them because every fan base can get a little bit arrogant when their team starts to rack up wins. But like, there is a, there is a certain type of game that Golden State can play that shoes and spits teams out in terms of the way that they pressure the ball, in terms of the way that they fly around and rotate. They have these, some of the sharpest closeouts I see in the league come out of Golden State and their ability to defend the three point line while also offering help there. It's, it's a, it's a, a principle that I believe in very strongly now, which is that the best foundational, like, trait that any roster can have is to have a bunch of big athletes on the perimeter that compete. And I think like, specifically on the perimeter that can cover ground and that play hard. You need a good variety too, of like different sizes and types, but you need that type of, type of trade. I don't, I can't. I would argue besides foundational superstar, of which there's only four or five in the entire league, that's the most important thing you can have is a trove of athletes. Would you agree at that point as the number one roster trait?
- [23:02]
Sam Vecenie
Yeah, I was going to say, like, I'll give you an example. Like, Atlanta this year has been like, pretty feisty and competitive for the most part, despite not having DeAndre Hunter and Bogdan McDonovich for like a majority of the year. Right. I know that they've lost like three in a row and like, they haven't played super, super well over the course of the last week. But like, that's a team that is feisty. And in large part, their biggest additions this summer were Dyson Daniels, Zachary Risache, guys that are feisty, that are long, that can cover ground defensively, like, those guys really, really help. I think in terms of what Atlanta is looking to do with, you know, surrounding Trey Young with talent. Right. You know, Trey Young is probably not one of those foundational superstars, but he is somebody that is an incredible offensive talent and having those guys around him allows him just to go and be like, hey, create the offense every night. Please don't be a total civ on defense. And you know, we trust that we'll be able to rack, you know, maybe not a 500 team, but we might get to 35 to 40 wins. Maybe the antithesis of this is another team that I'm sure we'll talk about today. The Bucks. Right? The Bucks have really struggled with that and that's a big reason why on some level they are playing below their talent level. Even though Giannis, over the last, I would argue two and a half, three weeks, this might be the best I've ever seen Giannis play on offense. Just point blank, he has been, he's been so good. Other worldly, you can maybe say the final series against the Suns and I would hear that out as well. But like what he's adding now is the mid range jumper and like it's a totally different beast to deal with with Giannis. So the fact that they don't have that foundational perimeter skill and speed and understanding of how to close out onto shooters, that is a critical, critical thing that they're missing right now. And they need to go out and find that at the trade deadline, you know, before the trade deadline, frankly. Hopefully.
- [25:03]
Jason Timpf
One of the things I've appreciated with the Bucks is like they kind of have found it a little bit. They found a little bit of a baseline for them for 48 minutes at the point of attack between Ajax and. And AJ Green, who I actually think has done a pretty damn good job guarding the ball and he's converting spot ups at like damn near a point and a half for possession. So like that they kind of have like found their little formula there where. Shout out to Brooke and Giannis. By the way, those two guys have had a flashback defensive stretch here over the last couple of weeks. Nothing like a. Nothing like a disastrous 2 and 2 and 8 start to kind of like to kick you in the butt a little bit and get you moving. But like, yeah, I. That, that has become my biggest. You and I have talked about this at various points over the course of the last few years and it's manifested in different like, kind of like buzzwords. But I remember for you it was ground coverage. That was the thing that you said to me in our postseason kind of conversation last year. And for me I've been referring to it as perimeter athleticism, but it basically means the exact same thing. But I viewed that as like the baseline and then the second piece of it. And I think some of the success that Dallas has had without Luca in the last couple of Weeks has been a great example of this is creating space by allowing your big men to operate a screening and passing fulcrums from the perimeter rather than occupying space around the rim. And this has been a Golden State staple for, for over a decade now. But this is something we've seen all around the league. The Dallas, when they, when they are trying to run offense with Luca off the floor, it's a lot of lively at the top of the key with guards screening for each other and cutting off of them. They ran a like a blender possession against the Nuggets when they beat them the other night where they had Kyrie come running off of a Derek Lively dribble hand off at the top. But it was a fake. He didn't get it. Then Quentin Grimes came flying off the dribble handoff. He did get it. As he got it, Lively rolled, but then as he rolled, he kind of dragged Jamal Murray into the paint. Najee Marshall relocated to the top, got a little close at opportunity, beat Jamal Murray. Jamal Murray, by the way, some of the worst defense I've seen ever from a player in the last couple of games from him. It's like his little comment that he threw out that this was part of my video that I recorded today that just disappeared into the ether. But Jamal Murray had a. Jamal Murray had it. Yeah. For the Hoops Tonight, listeners, I did work today. You're just not going to see the video because it doesn't exist anymore. We had a little Mac crisis today. But anyway, Jamal Murray like went out and started talking shit about his teammates partying, partying in Los Angeles and then was the reason why they like got eviscerated by the Knicks. But anyway, my basketball worldview has come around to this idea that, like, if you are not creating space around the rim by using your bigs further away from the rim as screening and passing fulcrums, if you are not getting the ball side to side, if you do not have multiple ball handling threats on the floor, there's a ceiling to your offense, especially when you get to the late playoff rounds. It's something that I feel very, very passionately about. And like, ironically, it kind of bridges the gap to Cleveland because in the same way that Golden State to me is proof of concept of two ideas, which is that offensive organization piece I was just talking about in that perimeter athleticism piece. The Cavs to me are kind of another example of Kenny Atkinson bringing a lot of the same ideologies to Cleveland in terms of how to play offense, how to Defend as well with the switching and cont, but like staying on Golden State for a second, to put it very simply, like there, right now there's way too much like Andrew Wiggins needs to be our savior for this thing to work out. And like he's been playing really well. Like I pulled this out on, on my mythological show that existed earlier today. I said that Andrew Wiggins had played four games in a row and scored 20 plus points for the first time since May of 2021 in this recent stretch. And he only had 18 in the loss to Brooklyn last night. But like the previous four games he's like, he's been playing really, really well. And like I've been saying, like the warriors need like specifically a front court type of player who can pretty reliably get them to 20 points a game efficiently and can create his own shot without having to rely on Steph. And like one of the things that's, things that's happening is, and this is where it went off the rails for them in the Brooklyn game last night, is they, their bench units really struggle to score unless body heels just making everything. And Buddy heeled, even when he was hot, was making a lot of pretty tough, tightly contested shots. And so my thing is like there's a lot of guys who can get hot. Like Lindy Waters can get hot and make shots. He's a little bit of a movement shooter, right? Like Jonathan Kaminka can go for 25, 30 on any given night. Like Buddy Healed obviously can get hot and make shots. Brandon Pazemski can get hot and he can make shots. What they don't have is a guy who's like kind of a more consistent night to night shot creator. And what scares me for them in the big picture is like, I look around the league and I'm like, okay, Jimmy Butler makes some sense, but I don't know if he's even got the juice in the tank left. Brandon Ingram I think might be a little bit too methodical and a little bit too much of a ball stopper to make that work. Zach Levine, the salary and the, the concerns about his health. Is there even a player that you see as a realistic trade target that could move Golden State into that tier for you?
- [30:14]
Sam Vecenie
I don't know that I have an answer to that. Unfortunately. Jimmy is the answer. To me. I think Jimmy, Jimmy can get ball stoppy, but he also. I feel like I'm on Seinfeld right now. Jimmy can get ball stoppy, but like Jimmy can do that. But I think that when he's within a scheme and within a flow. Like, he's more than happy to play within that. Right. I don't know if Jimmy's going to be available. Like, the Miami Heat are a team that constantly tries to contend. The only reason that. That he would be potentially available is if they just decide, you know what, he's a free agent. He's not resigning this, that, and the other thing. Right. And they're out of it by February. That feels unlikely to me. It's not impossible by any stretch, but, like, I think they're going to be competitive enough to where they're going to feel like they can make a playoff run with Eric Spro, with Jimmy Butler, and give this team, like, one final rodeo and, you know, chance at it with the Jimmy and Bam core. I don't know that it would be that expensive necessarily to go get Jimmy Butler for five months, four months maybe.
- [31:11]
Jason Timpf
To include Wiggins, though. Would that change it for you? Just from. Just from the standpoint of matching salaries? From what I understand, it'd be like, Wiggins or.
- [31:18]
Sam Vecenie
No, I would still do it if I was them. You're getting Jimmy Butler and, like, honestly, with Wiggins, if you could parlay this great stretch of games into getting off of that con. But more than anything, like, getting off that contract, which this summer looked like it would be unmovable or, like immovable, whatever that word is, that is something I would probably do if I was them. I would have to think about that, like, in terms of is that true or not? I'll have to. I would guess that it is off the top of my head, but I'm sure that that's right now having, like, I'm trying to think, like, could you do. Could you, like, Melton's deal, plus, like, a few other kind of things, but I'd have to really kind of dive into it. It'd probably have to involve a third team as well. You might be able.
- [32:08]
Jason Timpf
Tough fall off. Wiggins makes 26. But after Draymond, you got Melton at 12, Peyton at 9, Kyle Anderson at 9, Buddy healed at 9, Kevin Kavan Looney at 8. So, like, you could piece together deals, but you would give up a couple of your key role players. I. The way I put it on my show is, like, I think it's a February decision. Like, I think if you get to February and Wiggins is more or less the same player he's been for the last couple of years, and Jimmy Butler looks like he's got some juice, but the Heat are floundering in the play in again in a terrible Eastern Conference. Then you call him up and you see if you can't work something out and you try to make a run at it. But, like, if Wiggins goes for 20 plus in two thirds of his games for the next two months, then I think you have to kind of approach it in a different way. But yeah, with Golden State, for me, like, I think they're here. Here's where I'm at with Golden State. I think that they are certain to finish above the play in as long as Steph stays healthy because of that floor that we talked so much about in terms of their perimeter athleticism and scheme. But I don't take them seriously as, like a top tier, championship contending threat unless they get a legitimate number two next to Steph. Because again, every other team we're talking about just has so much more firepower at the top. It's like, not even close. And so that's where I get concerned with Cleveland. I left that Celtics game way more, like, convinced that Boston was on another tier than so many other. Like, there was a lot of stuff getting thrown out where it's like, oh, well, Darius Garland played a bad game and we were down all of our wings. And like, I want to be clear, I don't think Cleveland's fraudulent or anything like that. I think they're very clearly in that second tier of team somewhere in there. But when I think about Cleveland, like, like when I watched that game, I felt like Boston, every single time Cleveland made a push, they were able to immediately regain control, which to me is like, when you see those games where it's like, the team always gets close, but they can't get over the top, that, to me is indicative of a trend where, like, the team is able to kind of like, refocus, get the right shots, lock in on defense. Boston's defense has been spotty at times this season from a commitment standpoint, but then it's been like, stifled. Like, they had a third quarter stretch against Minnesota the other night that was terrifying. Like, it, like. Like where they completely put those dudes in jail. And like, I think I. A lot of the stuff that I was concerned about, like, oh, they still have entry points. Like, Darius Garland is an easy pathway to get the Cavs in rotation. And yep, you know what? They got a massive front line, but as soon as those dudes start running around to shooters, it's not so massive on the front line anymore. And so, like, I view Cleveland as a very well constructed team. That has a very traditional build in their, you know, kind of too big look in terms of like the lots of interior size. They're, they're loading up in ball screens, all that kind of stuff. The, the concern that I have is like a lot of this is just really good organization from Kenny Atkinson that is achieving a very high floor in the regular season that's going to beat all the bad teams in the league and certainly compete against the good teams in the league. But when it comes down to just the strict chess match of the half court battle against a team like Boston, I just don't think that they can get there. Is there? Are you higher on Cleveland than I am?
- [35:26]
Sam Vecenie
I think I'm probably a little bit higher. I guess I'm like a little bit higher in theory because we haven't seen what I'm about to say like bear itself out yet because they haven't had Max Truce. Max Truce is like a huge addition for this team that they're going to get back because Max isn't just a shooter. He's somebody that like can guard, he can guard one on one. He can close out onto shooters. Like he's not, I'm not going to sit here and tell you he's like some all defense guy or even like some incredible defender by any stretch. But I think he's solid on that end in a way that to me when I watched that game against Boston, it wasn't that they just had Garland on the court, it was that they had Garland and Niang or Garland and Merrill or Garland. And like Ty Jerome has actually been like pretty feisty this year defensively. But he's not super fast, right. He gets by with like really good hand eye coordination that way. And he's 6 foot 5, right. So it was the fact that they had multiple entry points. If you give Streus to them and you know, also a Coro Lavert, those guys, Dean Wade, I think it at least could potentially limit how badly they get hit when they're in rotation and when they have to fly around and try and scramble and recover. But that's just like theory for me right now. Like we haven't seen Max Truce and I think he's the one that does it better than anybody because he allows you to play the math game with Cleveland. He allows you to go smaller if you want to with Evan Mobley at the 5, which I think is the key for them being able to match up. They did that in this game. But the problem was, and I love George Niang as A player. I think he's been really useful this year as a shooter, as a, you know, just general, smart basketball player that you can have on the court. He's just not fast enough for that situation. I actually thought they made a mistake not having Jared Allen.
- [37:24]
Jason Timpf
I thought that was bizarre.
- [37:25]
Sam Vecenie
Yeah, like, to me, like, Jared Allen just is a better defender on the perimeter than George De. But I think they wanted the shooting. I think they wanted the spacing that comes with that. So, you know, whatever, Right. The problem for them is that I, I don't know how anybody stops Boston. Like, we just talked through their offense, right? We're talking about all of this in theory, we're talking about all this. Like, in practicality, you need Boston to have four games where they don't shoot well, coinciding with four games where you do shoot well. And like, we can talk about the way that they get to these shots. We can talk about the way that, you know, these things bear themselves out on the court. From a matchup perspective from, you know, Boston's entire offense is predicated upon finding mismatches, right? They're gonna bring Peyton Pritchard up to screen and get Darius Garland done. Jason Tatum, right? They're gonna bring, you know, George Niang up to screen and get him onto Jalen Brown. That's the whole thing that they're trying to do. And then they're going to collapse and then they're going to shoot it out and spray it out and try and shoot threes or they're going to dump it to Drew Holiday in the dunker spot. Whatever they're going to do, they have different ways to get there, but that's ultimately their goal. Offensively, you need to have days where you shoot well and they shoot poorly. Sometimes the shots just don't go in right like that. That can happen where that is a thing that happens. There is a luck factor to shooting on some level. I think that it is maybe not as big as the analytics people will say from time to time, but there is undeniably something of a luck factor where the shot goes in or it doesn't go in, right? You need four days where that happens and four days where on your end you're shooting it well against a group of perimeter defenders. With Drew Holiday, Derrick White, Jalen Brown, who's a really good on ball defender, Jason Tatum, who's a really good off ball defender, Al Horford, who can switch out there, Kristoff Sports Ingas, who's an unbelievable rim protector. You need to do that against that team, that's what makes them such a difficult problem to solve. They beat you on the math game, they beat you on the matchups game. At the end of the day, like, that's just an incredibly hard problem for anybody, let alone Cleveland. Cleveland would be clearly number two for me in the East. Like, I don't think that.
- [39:45]
Jason Timpf
I think so too.
- [39:46]
Sam Vecenie
I like them more than I like the Knicks by like a pretty real margin right now. But it's just a, it's, you know, if we're trying to compare them in terms of championship tiers and contenders, it's, I have worries about just anybody being beating Boston at this point.
- [40:17]
Jason Timpf
Cleveland has the. Similar to what we talked about with Golden State. They're, they just, they're just a really good NBA team. They're well coached, they've got good players, they're super deep. They have a bunch of different ways they can beat you. It's strictly their top end that I'm concerned about. Strictly within the context of the other top tier teams in the league. New York is a team that right now I'm, I'm kind of considering beneath Cleveland, but I do think they're a team that in the long run I could view higher than Cleveland. New York is hitting an offensive level here in the last couple of weeks that's kind of terrifying. They've basically been operating around a 1:30 offensive rating for the last, like for the last couple of weeks. And I thought that the game in Denver was such a classic example of what makes them so tough to guard, which is the unique combination of like a superstar that consistently draws two to the ball and then a bunch of dudes who are professional off ball scores like the, like Mikhail Bridges has been scoring off the ball since he was catching skip passes and pick and roll from Chris Paul, you know, three, four or five years ago, right. Like OG and Anobi has turned into one of the most gifted. Like it's kind of looks a little clunky sometimes, but he's such a gifted like, he's such a gifted like shot creator when a dude's chasing him off the three point line. They have so many smart players in that, in that four on three that inevitably comes from every single time Jalen Brunson brings the ball at the floor that they're just impossible to guard. The thing that's bothering me is like they literally have not played more than one or two good games of defense this entire season. Even in their wins. They're not guarding like they had a win streak where they won, you know, four out of five and like they were like at a like a 119 defensive rating in those four wins against like Washington and like Brooklyn and like just some really limited teams. And I have been trying to investigate this Knicks defense problem for a while and I'm so curious to hear your opinion on it because we haven't talked about it yet. But my initial impression is it's a combination of some effort, focus, energy stuff like specifically some of their perimeter defenders are not having good perimeter defensive seasons. And then two, there's a little bit of like a schematic thing with Tibbs that's driving me crazy which is like they like still are not doing a ton of switching. Even when it's OG and Mikhail and Josh in the action, they're still doing a lot of over helping and lingering. That's completely unnecessary. There's some of it that's unavoidable. Like teams are hunting Brunson and Cat a lot. Like I want to be clear that's how teams are looking to attack the Knicks. But it extends so much further to that because like my thing is like the effort and energy piece I think will improve in the long run. And that to me is the gap between Cleveland. Like Cleveland's practicing being a championship team. Say what you want about whether or not they actually are. They're practicing being a championship team that is a dead serious basketball team in their daily process. Nick's not so much. That's definitely something that they can clean up there. There's no doubt that like the, that Cat and Jalen Brunson are going to get attacked a great amount over the course of the rest of the season. But there's some self inflicted damage there. And their three point defense metrics are really bad. They're giving up a ton of volume on threes. They're giving up high percentage, they're giving up a lot of spot up opportunities in general. They are not guarding the three point line well. And like for all the talk about Cat as a rim protector, their paint defense has been pretty solid.
- [43:47]
Sam Vecenie
It.
- [43:47]
Jason Timpf
So like what is your takeaway on what's going wrong with the Knicks defense?
- [43:52]
Sam Vecenie
So yeah, so they, they have looked better recently. They have won five out of six here and it's largely due to their offense. What I will say about their defense is that I think that in part it could get fixed a little bit with Mitchell Robinson coming back. So like let's look at the positive here first and just say hey, a lot of what, a lot of what I'M going to say could get solved with Mitch coming back. A big issue for me personally is that Carl Towns is a bad drop coverage defender. And early in the season they basically played only drop coverage. Over the last, like two weeks, I felt like I've seen them experiment a little bit more with like, having him come out to the level a little bit higher. They will occasionally, not regularly, but like, at times, like I've seen them switch, you know, it could have just been like, appeal, switch, situation, but like, it felt like kind of an early peel switch to me. Like, I. I will, I will hear out that they are adjusting and experimenting and that Tibbs is trying to find different answers. It hasn't gone well. Like, let's be clear about that too. Like, it hasn't gone super great to this point, but I do think that they have at least tried to solve the problem. A Towns is a really, really bad drop coverage defender. I think that he doesn't really understand his angles. He doesn't really understand his depth. He often gets caught in no man's land where the roller will get behind him and he's not really actually contesting the guard and the guard is able to just get to a pull up a little bit too easily or have that lob over the top of him. The second piece of it for me is you mentioned the perimeter defense. I actually think McHale Bridges has been quite poor to this point. Defensively in general, I think he has not been very good this season. Offensively, the shot is obviously a whole other conversation, but did you see how.
- [45:50]
Jason Timpf
Many times Jamal Murray left him completely wide open, just not paying attention? He just was missing every shot. And that nugget, that could have been a worse blowout.
- [45:57]
Sam Vecenie
Teams, teams are going to do that with them. Like, they're going to force him to shoot. Mikhail's a crazy worker and I hope that he comes available here and like, comes around and is able to shoot it. Like, I've never heard anything but, like, Mikhail Burgess is like an awesome human being. So, like, when I say what I'm about to say, like, I don't say this with joy, right?
- [46:15]
Jason Timpf
Why are you being so negative, Sam?
- [46:17]
Sam Vecenie
He's been really bad on defense. He has been. The big issue for me is that he has been incapable. When you watched him get through screens when he was younger, he like, kind of used that length and like, slithered around them and like, found different ways to get back into recovery. Right now he's getting caught on screens for that extra split second. I feel like his hips aren't quite as flexible as they used to be when he was a little bit younger. And he's just getting caught trying to get up over the top. He's a guy that has super long limbs, super long arms, but also a really high waist. So when he tries to get around screens, he has to like, really open up his hips and then like open around and like get back around the screen. And I think he's getting clipped on those a little bit more often than what we've seen in the the past from him. And that's an issue for them right now if he's not an elite level perimeter defender, if he is on, if I'm being completely honest, I think he's been a below average perimeter defender this season. I will hear out, you know, that he's been average or whatever, but I, I haven't really seen that personally. Let's assume.
- [47:27]
Jason Timpf
Well, they're not getting any stops, Sam. They're not getting any stops even against bad teams.
- [47:32]
Sam Vecenie
They're not. But like, if you want to say he'll get to average, I still think that's a problem for them them, because then you have two, you know, you have OG and Anobi, who's a great defender. You have Josh Hart, who's like an above average defender who works his balls off and like flies around the court. Right. You have an average defender in Mikhail, and then, you know, Kat and Jalen are just guys that teams will attack relentlessly. So if you don't have that extra great defender with those two, to me, it's a real problem. So, you know, the way that you phrase this whenever we decided, hey, what are we gonna do? Are you higher or lower on these teams than you were in the preseason in terms of them contending for a title? My answer for the Knicks right now is actually lower. And in part it's because of Bridges, and I would really like to see him fix it, but he's not playing well on either end right now. And like that deal, when that deal got done, I was literally live, like doing a mock draft show with Bryce, my podcast partner there, and I a, we were just like stunned and befuddled when that deal happened. And then we got the price and I was like, man, I like Mikhail. And I knew that the price was going to be big. And I still thought that was too much to pay for him.
- [48:47]
Jason Timpf
Superstar prices, man. Superstar prices.
- [48:50]
Sam Vecenie
They paid superstar price. For a guy that is a top, you know, when he's at his best, right? A top 40 player in the league. In terms of like impacting winning top 50 player in the league, whatever it is. And it was just. There's too much, I thought. But you know, at the end of the day, they're going to get Mitchell back. We're going to see if that can really solve some of the issues that they have defensively because they can play him and drop and then you can get Cat back to play the role that he was in in Minnesota. It makes life a little bit easier, I think for everybody. And that could really go a long way towards solving their defense. And that could make me in the end a little bit higher on them. But given that Mitchell's injury situation seems a little bit questionable in terms of when he'll be back, what he will look like when he gets back, I am a little bit lower on them than I was in the preseason. I am.
- [49:41]
Jason Timpf
Yeah, it's interesting. The Cat. If Cat could just guard Jokic in the post every single possession, I think he'd be considered an all defense guy. But unfortunately there's a lot more to guarding NBA teams. I like the idea of Mitchell Robinson just kind of like putting them into a lot more natural positions on, on a lot of like, first of all, Mitch is like one of my favorite bigs in the league at getting to the level of screens and contesting bullet shooters. He just has such a natural gift for it, the timing and he's got such quick leaping and long arms. And then I like Cat more as a low man than I do as a ball screen defender. And then the Josh Hart stuff, like Josh Hart brings so much good to the table. But like, and there's no doubt that like from a spacing standpoint there would be some complications with Mitchell. It gets. It's not as simple as it looks though because one teams aren't guarding Josh Hart on the perimeter. I have seen so many teams this year put their center on Josh Hart for extended stretches and just sag him into the paint anyway. And I think that Mitch can bring back some of their offensive rebounding identity in, in a lot of ways too. He's just always been super, super good at that. So like I with the Knicks, I think Cleveland is a clear number two right now. But I give them. I wouldn't be surprised if I felt differently in two, three months if they just kind of figured some of that additional stuff out before we get out of here. I want to spend about 10, 15 minutes on the middle tier in the Western Conference.
- [51:06]
Sam Vecenie
Yeah.
- [51:07]
Jason Timpf
So this is a total shit show. Sacramento's lost four in a row they're now the 12 seed but like you just know that they're going to have a stretch where they win eight out of nine games and they've been devastated by injuries and it's been dear and Fox just playing one on on five every game. Even Portland is scrappy and difficult. Like as much as we talk trash about the Pelicans, they will get healthier at some point in the season and rip off some wins at some point. San Antonio is like it's the classic home road team. Like if they're they are just a huge pain in the butt to beat in San Antonio and that's just something that's going to keep them afloat in the standings all season. Dallas it's been the Lucas St. Tough and I a lot of like kind of early burying of Klay Thompson even though it has so much more to do with the fact that his ceiling kind of depends on Luca creating advantages for him. And so I'm not super concerned about claiming the big picture but like every team has it issues. Denver's like atrociously bad when Jokic is off the floor. The Suns can't do anything without Kevin Durant. The the Clippers are actually like my one of my big success stories from the season. I was like the Clippers are going to be a pain in the ass. I swear. It's all these athletes they're big into athletic on the permit Twitter, Memphis. Same sort of thing with the home road splits. But like that that tier in the west that is beyond Oklahoma City and Golden state is like 10 teams deep and I have no idea what to make of it. Where do like where are you feeling with that group? Do you have them all still in one tier? Are there a couple of teams that are separating themselves for you? How do you feel about that tier in the west right now?
- [52:36]
Sam Vecenie
I mean have you. You didn't mention the team that I think I might like the most outside of Denver? No, the Lakers.
- [52:45]
Jason Timpf
Oh come on. I'm a Lakers guy.
- [52:47]
Sam Vecenie
But okay, let's like you just don't like the transition defense is the issue that'll get cleaned up. Like that will figure itself out. We've already started to see signs that it's going to figure itself out. Look, I like Denver more than the Lakers to be clear. Like I have Denver like in the same tier with the Lakers, but I do like Denver more than the Lakers to be clear. I was just surprised you didn't mention mention them. But with the Lakers particularly mistake. Yeah, like with the Lakers particularly, they have this incredible offensive scheme that is working really, really well in terms of actualizing Anthony Davis. Honestly, I think a big thing that it's doing that people aren't really noticing is minimizing the wear and tear on LeBron throughout the regular season. And that's going to make a big difference, I think, potentially come playoff time. They have Austin Reeves, who's been like, hot and cold, it feels like, to start the season. They have Dalton connect, who looks like a real hit. He's a guy that kind of elevates their starting lineup. Like, it's funny, they've moved him to the bench to bring Rui back into the starting lineup. And I think that's a mistake because when I watch Dalton, I think he's a guy that elevates your best players, but probably isn't a guy yet that can go get his own or, you know, be at his best with bench players in the NBA. So if I was the Lakers, I would have Dalton in the starting lineup in order to maximize both his potential and the players around him. Offensively, I get the defensive concerns. But the thing about the Lakers is that when you look at all the other teams in the West, Denver included, certainly, and this is removing Oklahoma City, in my opinion. You look at, oh, you know, like Sacramento, who I think just probably doesn't have enough juice in terms of star power, and, and Minnesota, who, you know, obviously sold a lot of their assets to go get Rudy Go, but, you know, has some new assets that they could potentially move if they wanted to. You can look at the Clippers, who probably doesn't, probably don't have enough juice unless Kawhi is just like a superstar. Houston's interesting. Houston certainly has more trade capital than anybody in the league if they want to use it. But I think the Lakers have the most, most realistic avenues toward improving their roster that doesn't involve, like, for instance, Houston having to upend everything. It does with a star trade. Right? The Lakers can solve their issues. They have three first round picks available to go out and get like a Bruce Brown. They have a bunch of tradable contracts. Rui, Gabe Vincent, Jared Vanderbilt, like, whoever you want to bring up across the board. They have all these deals that they can move for players right within their price range, like, if they can go get Bruce Brown. To me, that's the name that I've been thinking about. That, like, just makes an immense amount of sense. We knew that they liked him. They tried to sign him before he signed that big balloon contract with the Indiana Pacers and then got traded to the Toronto Raptors in the SEM deal if I remember correctly. But he is the kind of player that'd be perfect for them. Like a perimeter defender who processes the game at a super high level, can guard one through four perfect like crash bang player that would take some wear and tear off of, you know, some of their perimeter players and some of their wings. Like they, they can go do that. Like Toronto is not contending this year. They would be able to go get give up a first round pick for Bruce Brown and it would be fine. And on top of it, the sneaky thing with Bruce Brown is that because his contract is big right now, he's not going to get that much on his next contract.
- [56:27]
Jason Timpf
Exactly.
- [56:27]
Sam Vecenie
You have the early bird rights to be able to retain him as well. I think he's actually like a really sneaky valuable player on this trade market that because he hasn't played much this season, if at all. If I can remember correctly, I haven't seen him play this year. At least he's someone that he will be a very valuable trade target as long as he's healthy at some point in December. January. Dorian Finney Smith is the name that makes a lot of like sense for the Lakers. I've said like a Dorian Finney Smith. They are on sharp deal for the Lakers. Solves like almost all of their problems to me right now. Solves the backup center issue. Solves, you know, going to get a wing who can be switchable defensively. Vinnie Smith is taking like a small step back defensively, but not an enormous one. But the, the guys that are on the market, they have the ability to go make moves to solve their issues is why I like them a lot. And they're already really good is the thing. Like the Lakers are already what, 11 and 7? Something like that?
- [57:24]
Jason Timpf
10 and 6.
- [57:25]
Sam Vecenie
10 and 6. Yeah. So they're in a really good position as it is. Like Denver doesn't have the ability really to go out and improve. They've moved all their picks. They would have to give up like a Peyton Watson or a Christian Brown or a Julian Strother to go make a realistic upgrade. And that's not something they should really be in the market of doing in my opinion. You can look at, I don't know, Minnesota, Minnesota could go make a realistic upgrade. But more than anything their season is going to come down to whether or not Anthony Edwards can make decisions and consistently make plays at the end. And I don't know if I trust that yet. They could also just like move off of the Julius Randall experiment and decide to do something totally different with that position. But that upends their season in, in some way and that would take some time to try and work through and figure out. So when I say that I really like the Lakers, I like the potential of what the Lakers can be after February, once they eventually, inevitably make their move. I think that might be the team that I. It's Denver because they have the best player in the world. They have Nikola Jokic. But outside of them in the west, like, I think the Lakers are the team even honestly, I like them more than Golden State in a playoff situation. I know that might be like sacrilege to hear right now, but I would buy them more in a playoff situation. They have the star power and they have the wherewithal to be able to go get, go do moves. Golden State does as well though, by the way. Like, that's the other thing that we, you know, have mentioned a little bit. Golden State to me is a, you know, D'Anthony Melton and Gary Payton in two first round picks for Cam Johnson move from being ahead of, you know, all these teams potentially. Maybe not Denver because Denver is still really good. But yeah, like that, that middle tier, like those three teams beyond Oklahoma City, Golden State, Denver Lakers, Denver Lakers, those feel like the three teams to me that not only have the star power, but also have the potential to get better and separate themselves from the rest of this group.
- [59:27]
Jason Timpf
Yeah, when I look at, I think a lot of times when we hear people talk about issues with the Lakers, they conveniently gloss over the fact that every team in that tier has major issues. You know, like, like, like the Kings can't guard anybody. Minnesota, I literally hate that roster. Like it, it's. I. Ant is like the player that I'm highest on in the next like generation of young basketball players. But I just hate that team's construct so much. And I think it plays directly into a lot of the issues that ANT has had over the years. Don't get me started, San Antonio. I've, ever since I saw how good Stefan Castle has become, I'm like all in on them for the future. Like, Stefan Castle has made me go from hating the SP spurs core to like loving the spurs core, which is like kind of been a funny transformation. I just think he, I think he's like the two way guard. I, I'll even say I think Stefan Castle is a more interesting prospect than Devon to sell in my opinion at this point because he just. And so, but like not even a question to me. Denver, their bench is atrocious and Jamal Murray is like literally a shell of himself. It's a real problem. Phoenix, the, the Nurkic problem is real and like I just think they're a little redundant in their, in the way that they attack on offense but by.
- [60:39]
Sam Vecenie
The way with them another team that can solve their problems with the trade market. Right. They have one first round pick and really the only functionality that they have is like moving Grayson Allen for a center or moving Nurkic, which I don't think anybody's going to take that contract. So I completely agree with you. Like there are worlds where you could maybe try and figure out how to make something like this function. But I, I think they're going to really struggle to improve their roster even though I love what they have been so far with Kevin derived at and.
- [61:11]
Jason Timpf
And that's where Phoenix to me is kind of like I don't view them as a serious threat for that exact reason that you're explaining. Like all of these teams, whether it's Golden State, Lakers, I, I, Denver I think is a little bit trapped as you said. Like they're, they have the avenues with which to, to improve themselves. Houston, the offense in the half court is just too bad. I, I, as good as they are, as interesting they are, they're the regular season wins drug or not this season we've seen that year in year out over the last, the last few years. Right? Clippers obviously like it's, it's a James Harden and Norman Powell team. It's hard to take them really seriously. I, I want to zero in on the Lakers for a second because I have a very complicated opinion on them. But before I do that I would say that I think Golden State, I have Golden State above the first of all, if Golden State played the Lakers in a series tomorrow, I think Golden State would kick their ass. I, as much as I, as much as I like the firepower stuff with the Lakers, the, the mismatch on the perimeter is so dramatic between those two teams. I think it would be a disaster.
- [62:26]
Sam Vecenie
So like, and to your point that you've talked about a lot, thought the transition defense would be an enormous issue against Golden State.
- [62:32]
Jason Timpf
Exactly.
- [62:32]
Sam Vecenie
So I agree with, I agree with you on this, that Golden State tomorrow in a seven game series would beat the Lakers.
- [62:39]
Jason Timpf
But like I also agree with you that if you start to talk about who can win four series between those two teams it gets a little more complicated because obviously like the Lakers are a bad matchup. With Golden State, but they are better matchup for other teams, right? So, like, it gets complicated in that regard. But like, I think Golden State I'd put above the Lakers. Denver, I'd certainly put above the Lakers because I actually do think Jamal is going to get like, Jamal's not as bad as he's been. He's going to be better, in my opinion. Maybe I'm just being glass half full a little too much. You have a little smirk on your face. Maybe you feel otherwise.
- [63:10]
Sam Vecenie
It's not that. It's not that I think he's definitely not. It's just that, I don't know, like, when it goes for, like when it went for John Wall, it went. You know what I mean? Like, the injuries piled up and he just couldn't separate from anybody anymore. And Jamal has the shooting to fall back on. But sometimes for guys it just goes. And I really hope that's not the case for Jamal. It's just that I don't. I don't know if it is is what I'm worried about.
- [63:36]
Jason Timpf
To your point, he hit a couple of jumpers against the Knicks where it was a lot of wrist and like snap of the. Of the top of the shot where you can tell he was not getting a ton of energy in his shot from the bottom. In some of these possessions where he's running around in the perimeter. Literally looks like me when I'm like playing. When I've played seven or eight pickup games and I'm in the last game of the day and I'm kind of limping around the court. Like, that's literally what the. What Jamal Murray looks like in some of these health defense possessions. Like, like where I'm just like, dude, this is an NBA game. Like, you can't be this like, like hob hobbling around. You know what I mean? But like, I think Denver is a team that I put above them. And then the other team I put above the Lakers still at this point is Dallas. In Dallas, I'm a little bit lower on because I do think the trade off for Derek Jones Jr. Did make them less athletic. Within that context, they do have more athletes than a team like the Lakers does. So, like, and I do think Luca will play better in the long run. So, like, for me, I have the Lakers kind of sitting as like the fifth best team in the west. Now you look like you had a thought on Dallas because I'm about to go off on the Lakers. So why don't you give me your thoughts on Dallas real quick?
- [64:46]
Sam Vecenie
No, Honestly, I don't. I mean, you know that, you know, when we did contender rankings, like at the deadline last year, I. Dallas, that.
- [64:52]
Jason Timpf
Was your team, five or whatever.
- [64:54]
Sam Vecenie
And like I love that team and I think they're terrific. So I guess I would put them ahead of the Lakers right now. They do have some flexibility. Not a ton, but like enough. I mean, the other weird team that we haven't talked about before we get to the Lakers is Memphis. Like, Memphis is so weird and bizarre and we haven't seen them with like a full complement of players yet.
- [65:17]
Jason Timpf
Exactly.
- [65:17]
Sam Vecenie
I mean, I don't know if you watch, watched the Portland Memphis game last night, two nights ago for when this goes live. John Moran had like 22 and 11 in 23 minutes and was just so far and away the best player on the court that it was remarkable. And I know.
- [65:33]
Jason Timpf
Was it in Memphis?
- [65:34]
Sam Vecenie
Whatever. I can't remember for some reason I think it was in Portland. But like I, I'm bad at remembering if it's home or road or not.
- [65:42]
Jason Timpf
But it was in Memphis. And every John Morant game in Memphis is like an event rant. He puts on a show every single game.
- [65:51]
Sam Vecenie
His speed, his explosiveness, you saw like the. He is. He and Trey Young to me are the two guards in the NBA where I don't understand how they understand angles when they make passes. Like both of them can throw live dribble passes, left hand, right hand from crazy angles from whatever position they're in on the court. Right, right. But those two guys particularly, I just watch them. And Ja throws these left handed whip cross court passes where I'm just like, I'm not even sure how you saw that, let alone how you executed that. Like Jokic can do this stuff. There are wings that can do this stuff as well. Like, like, I'm not sitting here saying they're like the best two passers in the NBA necessarily. They're probably in the top five. But like when I watch those two, I'm just like, holy. And Ja is also like the most explosive athlete in the. He is. I say Memphis just to say that like if Ja is this good and they get Des Bane and they get Jaren Jackson playing a full complement of games, they have all of these potential options that they can mix and match with against you in certain situations and matchups. They're interesting to me. They've been playing goofy ass like Santiago Dama, Jaren Jackson, Zach Edie, lineups that are like three seven footers basically, and it's just really hard to score. On them and they still have like perimeter play because of Santi and Jaren, so they're a weird team. But I also bring them up to say that they have their full complement of picks to be able to move if they want to.
- [67:23]
Jason Timpf
Yeah, I, I need to see more of Memphis now that Marcus Smart and Desmond Maine are back. They're a team that I'm going to be zeroing in on in the next couple of weeks because like there's, there's fun spunky, we're winning games at home with, you know, Scottie Pippen Jr. And J. Huff and, and all these kind of guys and then there's like, okay, let's get a good look at like what you know, J. Desmond, Marcus, Smart, they've been starting Jaylen Wells. It's interesting to me because I actually liked the Smart Bane Jaw Trio last year, but then like the, with Jiren Jackson and Edie and then also with Santi Alama and Jiren Jackson as a smaller, like kind of more spacing look, I need to just see more of them. They're a team that I. They're a team that I just don't have a really strong opinion about at this point. On the Lakers front they are. There's so many things that I really like about this team. I do think JJ Redick has done a good job of at least bringing a more serious approach on a daily basis. Yeah, I love some of the concepts that he's brought in offensively in the sense that last year they were very much like a horns team and like a lot of like you're kind of like just stack and double drag and that sort of thing. It was just a lot of like pretty standard horn stack, double drag around across the board. JJ's brought in the, the LeBron and AD as a fulcrum at the top of the key for off ball guard action stuff which has been really, really intriguing and I've liked a lot of that stuff. You mentioned using LeBron, by the way.
- [68:51]
Sam Vecenie
They're getting there like in similar sets. Like they still run a lot of horns actions, they still run a lot of double drag stuff, I think jj, Yeah, I think what JJ has done is particularly weaponize his two best players years in a different way than what Darvin Ham did and that's what makes him a much better coach, frankly.
- [69:12]
Jason Timpf
And to your point, that's. I think that's that and then giving a lot more of the guard reps to Austin has definitely played a part in DLO struggles to this point in the Season, he's just been really, really bad where it gets complicated for me and before I even get there, I want to, I want to focus in on the starting lineup for a second too. Like the. I think that Dalton Connect has to start to two because one, he's just such a natural fit offensively because he's an off ball scorer. I think this is such a valuable talent in the NBA, a guy that you can like realistically expect 15 to 25 points on any given night without really having to like, yeah, you'll drop stuff for him when he gets hot to kind of keep feeding the hot hand, but he can play within the low of the game, right? And the second piece of it is he's just a really good athlete and this is the team that doesn't have athleticism on the perimeter. Even though he has his defensive limitations. Just like him going after a contested rebound or him running his lane in transition or him high pointing some sort of loose ball, just looks different than it does for the other Laker guards. Which is why I kind of lean more towards the trade you presented to me on the phone the other day, which is the Dorian Finney Smith they were on sharp type of move because like I originally was in the same spot where I was like, dlo's the weak link here. You got to go get a Bruce Brown, you got to go get a, you know, a Derrick Jones Jr. Or something like that to anchor the 2, 2, and then Ruiz, your 3. I am in the opposite spot now where I think this needs to be an Austin Dalton LeBron AD team in a traditional three and D guy that you can put on the other team's best perimeter player makes the most sense. That's where Adorian, Finney Smith kind of falls into that spot. For me, the tricky part is, is I don't like a ton of the other options around the league. I think that he's the one guy that makes a lot of sense because like, I look at it and I'm like, I kind of like Zaire Williams too, but I just don't think he's a start starter. I don't think he shoots the ball well enough. There's. I like Josh Green as a guy that they could potentially go after, but then again, he plays the same position more or less as Dalton Connect, which kind of presents some issues. So, like, they're a little bit more limited in terms of the types of players that can go there. Like, does Jeremy Grant want to come in and guard the other team's best Player every game. Probably not. All right, so like there are some limitations there, but I do think Dalton at the 2 is the direction they need to go in the long run. My pessimism surrounding the Lakers entirely centers around the perimeter perimeter athleticism piece and I just don't know if it's something they can fix within one season. They, they will defend better than they have. To be clear, their defense is in shambles right now for a variety of different reasons. Mostly centering around transition and the offensive glass. They're actually like a decent load up half court defense. Like they're okay in the decent half court load up situations. It's rebounding and it is transition that is entirely perimeter athletes. That's entirely Perimeter athletes like LeBron and AD are two of the best defensive rebounders of their generation duration and they can't rebound like it is a perimeter athlete issue. And so like I'm with you in the sense that like if you told me like we were going to be watching OKC Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference finals, I wouldn't be stunned because I do think that that ceiling is in there. Anthony Davis is playing at a top five level this year. LeBron isn't even at the level I think he will be in the long run. Like there's a lot to be excited about there. It's just like I've, I've been. Sam, I've been bitching about this perimeter athleticism thing with the Lakers for two years now.
- [72:27]
Sam Vecenie
Yeah.
- [72:27]
Jason Timpf
And Rob just hasn't done anything. So like where like it's hard for me to eve it's like Jared Vanderbilt, really interesting player. But like I haven't watched him play in a basketball game in so long that it's like all theoretical to this point.
- [72:42]
Sam Vecenie
He just doesn't get guarded either. That's the other thing. Like nobody guards him. So and so.
- [72:47]
Jason Timpf
So I just am concerned, I'm just concerned that Rob is thinking more like this team needs a third star and like I just don't think Rob is actually aware of the fact fact that the main weakness of this roster is that they've got a bunch of skill players on the perimeter that can't move or fight.
- [73:03]
Sam Vecenie
It's. It's funny that you say that you, you like the Dorian Finney Smith move more now because I'm kind of going the opposite way a little bit. Where I like that one first originally probably because it was like my first thought and I was like anchored to it a little bit. But the more I think about it, the more I'm like, oh no. Like it's Bruce Brown's the one that makes more sense because he's the better athlete, he's the better defender on the perimeter. Like, he's the guy that you can trust to go deal with like one, twos and threes. Like even with Denver, right. Like, part of like a big part of his role was that he could play the four on offense but could guard perimeter players on defense. And that's kind of what I think they need. Like, they need somebody that will like deal with, you know, the fours and can take on tough matchups or I can like just make high level passing reads and can do different things like that. But on offense they want Dalton and you know, Austin to be the one in the two. Kind of like you said on defense, having Bruce allows you to kind of play him at the two, the, you know, one, the three, whoever you have to shut down in terms of the matchup. He's just kind of a better defender I think at this point than what Dorian Finney Smith is. But what Finney Smith adds that he doesn't is he's a fine defender at this point is he's longer and he is also a real shooter, which Bruce unfortunately is not at this point point. So I go back and forth on it. I think I lean a little bit more toward Bruce Brown now. But like, it's a tricky, it's a tricky conversation for sure. And they have to make the right decision because while I talk about their flexibility, they really have like one move that they can make without like totally selling the farm, you know what I mean? If they don't make, if they decide to like go all out and, you know, go get somebody, they're giving up like three first rounders or whatever. And that doesn't feel like a great plan to me either. So I like what they can do. I like their flexibility. I think they are one player away. Realistically. You can slide D'Angelo Russell to the bench, you hopefully get Jared Vanderbilt back to be able to play defense in stretches for 15 minutes a game. Right. They can solve the backup center issue. Like you can find backup centers for second round picks on the trade market. They're gonna have to find. They can find answers though, I think is why I like them. Like they can go. They're not a great team right now. They're not, but they can find the answers. I think.
- [75:19]
Jason Timpf
Yeah, there I'm with you in the sense that like I, I think that that trait is such a specifically valuable trait that even if you're great at everything else, it can undercut a team. And there's, it's just, I'm of the opinion that this needs to be kind of like a two pronged approach at the deadline, which is like they need to find a starter that they can put at the two or the three, a starting caliber two way player. But they also, I also think they need to add some athletes for their bench. And here's the thing. If Jared Vanderbilt gets back and he gets to form and that works out great, great. If Gabe Vincent gets at least decent at basketball at some point in the next couple of months, months, that would be great. If Max Christie settles down a little bit, then maybe that's fine. But it's just, I think it's more likely than not that they need a couple of different moves and I just am not sure that I trust Rob to get it done. So in a weird way, like if you asked me to rank contenders, like I still have, I had them coming into the season, I think eight and like yeah, they're probably still right around there, seven or eight. Right. Like I'm, if I look out east, I'm looking at Boston and Cleveland clearly as a level above, maybe the Knicks too. If I look out west, it's clearly okc, Golden State, Denver and Dallas. So like they're somewhere around 7 or 8, but like I just can't see them bolting up.
- [76:39]
Sam Vecenie
We talked about the Knicks, right? Would you have the Knicks or the Lakers right now?
- [76:48]
Jason Timpf
Oh man.
- [76:51]
Sam Vecenie
Because the Knicks are a team that I think everybody would have had ahead of them coming into the year.
- [76:58]
Jason Timpf
I, I, here's the thing. I think the Lakers. Oh, this is such a good question, Sam.
- [77:07]
Sam Vecenie
And also neither of these teams right now can win a title, but the Knicks are going to get back Mitchell Robinson at some point and the Lakers have moves to be able to make to go get players. Like it's, I think I still take.
- [77:18]
Jason Timpf
LeBron AD in a playoff series over a Brunson Bridges kind of Brunson Bridges, an OBI group. But like I, I, that my basketball heart loves the Knicks perimeter athletes. But then again it just hasn't manifested the way it needs to. So yeah, I think Eileen, very, very slightly Lakers, but I, there's a part of me that goes that's stupid. Why would you say that? So I, I don't that man, you might have, you might have found the two teams that I'm most evenly opinionated about. That's crazy.
- [77:47]
Sam Vecenie
Yeah, like if you told me, if.
- [77:48]
Jason Timpf
You told me Lakers are Bucks right now. I'd be like, Lakers 10 times out of 10. You know, like, if you told me Lakers, Suns right now, I'd say Lakers 10 times out of 10. But, like, like, like the teams that are. But yeah, the Knicks to me are Lakers East.
- [78:01]
Sam Vecenie
Yeah, I would go.
- [78:02]
Jason Timpf
That loss in Utah was one of the worst losses of the season that any NBA team has had.
- [78:06]
Sam Vecenie
That is accurate.
- [78:08]
Jason Timpf
Yeah.
- [78:08]
Sam Vecenie
Accurate.
- [78:09]
Jason Timpf
Sam, this show was exactly what I hoped it would be. I had kind of like a loose format. We ended up just completely ditching it. It was like you and I just talking hoops on the phone for some time. It was everything I hoped it would be. I sincerely appreciate you giving us your time. Can you tell our audience everything you've been working on as of late?
- [78:24]
Sam Vecenie
Go to the Athletic. Keep me employed over there. Go to the Game Theory podcast with Sam Vacini over on YouTube, over on Spotify, whatever podcast platform you listen to shows on. I've been doing things where I kind of steal Jason's thunder a little bit and go live after games and talk through some things that happen. We're calling it Post Game Theory or Game Theory After Dark. We don't really have a name for it. We just kind of talk about basketball.
- [78:49]
Jason Timpf
I like Post Game Theory tape.
- [78:50]
Sam Vecenie
I do, too. I'm still trying to make. Make some different thoughts about it at this point and trying to change minds within the fan base, because the fan base, it feels like, is sway in another way. Yeah, no, go over there. Listen to the show. Watch me break down tape. I break down tape, you know, two or three times a night or two or two or three times a week on games that happen over the course of the previous couple of days. So go there and come hang out.
- [79:18]
Jason Timpf
I talk to a lot of people about basketball on a daily basis, and whenever I have a basketball idea or something that I need to run by someone, Sam is the first person that I reach out to. He's a basketball mind that I respect a great deal. You guys need to get over to the Athletic and to the Game Theory podcast and support him. And I'm sure we'll be having you back on somewhere right around the All Star break to get into some stuff. And I owe you a show, so you gotta let me know if you have some stuff that you want to talk about. But as always, we sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and for supporting the show. We will be back after Thanksgiving break. I was about to say tonight after Laker Suns, but you guys aren't seeing this till Wednesday. So I will see you guys after Thanksgiving break for some power rankings on Monday.
- [79:58]
Sam Vecenie
The volume.
- [80:00]
Jason Timpf
What's up, guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting Hoops tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it.