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Hoops Tonight - NBA Player Rankings #14-13: Joel Embiid & Kawhi Leonard | Hoops Tonight
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Jake Hofer
This is an iHeart podcast. I'm Jake Hofer and this is Back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access? Should you? That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand. Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. From tips for healthy living to the latest medical breakthroughs, WebMD's Health Discovered podcast keeps you up to date on today's most important health issues. Through in depth conversations with experts from across the healthcare community, WebMD reveals how today's health news will impact your life tomorrow. It's not that people don't know that exercise is healthy. It's just that people don't know why it's healthy. And we're struggling to try to help people help themselves and each other. Listen to WebMD Health discovered on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land? Jeopardy truthers believe in? I guess they would be conspiracy theorists. That's right. They give you the answers and you still blew it. The Puzzler listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello, I'm John Lithgow. We choose to go to the moon. I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast. That's one small step for man about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space. You're a great pilot, Buzz. That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't. Buzz. Starring me, John Lithgow on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Volume. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Monday, everybody. Hope all of you guys had a great weekend. We are continuing our player rankings. Today. We are venturing into a different tier of players going into our second tier. Our second tier superstars rating number 14 and number 13 today. You guys know the joke before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter. Underscore Jason LT So you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcast under Hoops tonight, it's also super helpful if you leave a rating in your review. On that front, Jackson's doing great work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok. Make sure you guys follow us there. And last but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in those YouTube comments. Remember, our mailbags are going to be geared towards the player ranking. So if you disagree with any of the numbers on this list, the player too high, player too low, player who should be on the list or shouldn't be on the list, whatever it may be, just write your quick little elevator pitch, your quick concise basketball argument for why you disagree, and we'll get to them in our mailbags throughout the remainder of the summer. All right, let's talk some basketball. So as mentioned, we just finished our third tier of superstars. These are the guys that are firmly worth max contracts. Probably not going to be the kind of guy that could be the best player on a championship team. There were a couple guys towards the top of that tier, guys like Jimmy or guys like Book who, like, if the right situation presented itself with tons of surrounding talent, they could probably do it. But that's a group that I think is below this next tier where with our second tier superstars, these are guys that are absolutely capable on any given night of staring down the very best players in the world and outplaying them. That means even yes, guys like Shay and Giannis and Luka Doncic and even Nicola Jokic, these are guys that can go toe to toe with those guys and beat them. And we've seen them do it. Both of the guys that we're covering today have stared down Nicola Jokic and outplayed him head to head before in single games. For one of these guys in the regular season and for one of these guys in one playoff game where Jokic ended up having the last word and getting the win. The point being, these are guys that on any given night that can reach that level. They have bonafide top tier superstar ceilings, but for various reasons, including age for guys like LeBron, Steph or Kevin Durant, or injuries for guys like Kawhi Leonard or Joel Embiid, or youth for guys like Anthony Edwards and Victor Wembanyama, these guys struggle to maintain that absolute peak level of basketball. Several of these guys used to be firmly in the top tier, including both guys recovering today. And for guys like Ant and Wemby, I'd be shocked if they weren't in that top tier at some point over the next two or three seasons, the guys that are above this group, the players that I have in one through four, they are consistently night to night able to reach that level at least the vast majority of time. And that's really the differentiator is the consistency. And I think there's like a pretty substantial drop off from number four to number five in terms of that night to night consistency there. I actually really struggled with who to put in that fifth spot really for that particular reason. We had a mailbag question the other day where we were talking about Tatum and that's kind of why Tatum made so much sense in that five spot. He's the one guy who's like obviously that number. He's clearly better than everyone below him, but clearly not as good as the four guys above him. He kind of like fits perfectly into that spot. So without any further ado, let's get started. Number 14, Joel Embiid. Last season in review Last season was just a miserable injury riddled season for Joel. Played in just 19 games. He made three separate attempts to try to rejoin the team and just was not able to get his body to cooperate before the 76ers finally shut him down. And it was the right decision. He didn't look much like himself when he was on the floor. There weren't many examples of him looking like the Joe Ellen Bead that won the MVP previously. All of his numbers and shooting metrics were down year over year. Flashed his upside every once in a while. He had a couple 30 point double doubles. I think he had a 37 point game, but he just wasn't able to get healthy and to stay on the floor. Joel's season is actually kind of an interesting example of how this list works and how I put it together. I ranked Joel 11th last year and as many of you guys may remember, I took a lot of shit for it, including Joel's trainer, Drew Hanlon actually came after me for it. And here's the thing. It's no secret Joel's not my favorite player. There are several things about his game that I'm not a fan of. But there are also several things about his game that I really like and that are super impressive and that I'm drawn to. My decision to put Joel at 11 was simply weighing the realities of his health risks. In this list we're looking at who is the best option to have on your team from October through June. And I absolutely view Joel Embiid as a bonafide top tier superstar. When he's healthy. But I just don't think it was a safe bet for him to make it through the season. And he didn't. And we have to make the same call here. To me, Joel's upside is way too high to drop him to the next tier of guys. I think he'd be no lower than fifth on this list, maybe sixth with Tatum if his knee could hold up. He has a unique problem. Like this is one of the unique things with Joel that kind of makes him an interesting player to talk to in this context because we talked about outplaying the top guys. Out of any of the top guys, Nicola Jokic has issues with one, and that's Joel embiId. He's the one guy because of his size and his ability to really kind of neutralize some of the scoring that Nicola Jokic does and kind of turn him into more of a playmaker. And his ability to attack Jokic in one on one situations is something that gave Jokic problems in the regular season context, obviously, but that is what makes him specifically interesting as a top tier star. But I would argue out of this top 14 group, the top tier superstars and the second tier superstars, he's by far the least likely to actually make it through a season. And so he has to be down at number 14 for me. Now, for those who are not familiar with how I feel about a healthy Joel, I do want to dig into a little bit about that right here. I. I'd probably have a healthy version of Joel without the knee issues if he's just operating at the same level that he is when he's completely in rhythm and on the floo night to night, ready to go. I'd have him at five or six, probably six if Jason Tatum was healthy. And so in that sense, yes, I am lower on Joel than most people at his absolute ceiling. It really comes down to his playoff shortcomings for me, and that's been a recurring theme as we've discussed some of the guys that missed the list this year and guys that are lower on this list. First of all, the defensive end, when Joel can stay near the rim. He's one of the best defenders in basketball, but he's not very matchup resilient. He has two specific issues that cause him issues. Speed. Teams that can really get up and down the floor and transition. Like I would feel very, I would, I would not feel good about a healthy Sixers team against a healthy Indiana Pacers team with Tyrese Halliburton ready to go. I Think they would just run him off the floor. And we saw at many points over the course of the years him really, really struggle with transition attack. He just struggles to change ends just because of his lack of foot speed. And then secondly, teams that can really force him to guard on the perimeter. So like excellent pull up shooting teams that force him to come up to the level consistently or teams that force him to that kind of drag him out and switches. You guys might remember Jason Tatum in game seven of the Eastern Conference semis. If I remember correctly, a couple years ago Jason Tatum like brutalized Joel Embiid in game seven on switches and pick and roll. In the sense that like when he's out at the rim, he's one of the top, you know, five or six guys that you can have in the league. But when he's out on the perimeter, he actually suddenly becomes a pretty bad defensive player. And so there's a matchup resiliency thing with him defensively. I never viewed him as nearly as good of a playoff defender as he was a regular season defender. And so that was a big part of why I had him lower. And then on offense, he just was never able to really replicate his regular season success. When he got to the postseason, the refs are less willing to reward his Griffs. His jump shot becomes super streaky. He was always more of a jump shooter than he was like a short range scorer. Like guys like Jokic, they use their body to get closer to the basket and they lean on hooks and floaters more than they lean on jump shots. Like you'll very rarely see Jokic take a mid range jump shot unless he's up against the clock, right? Or if like it's dead wide open and it would break the offensive rhythm to dribble out of it. Embiid hunts those opportunities and if they don't go in at a super high clip, it ends up neutering his efficiency when he gets into the postseason. And there was a proven way to have success against him defensively in the postseason by doubling him specifically from behind. If you doubled him from his blind side, he consistently struggled with it for his career. He has 18 more turnovers than assists in the postseason. That was another consistent issue that would come up. So like I viewed Embiid as a top tier superstar, but I viewed him as the, at the top, at the bottom of that top tier because of those limitations when he got to the postseason. All of that said, I truly hope that Joel Embiid gets healthy this year and that he's able to make another run at the title. The east is wide open. Obviously, if Paul George can get healthy, there's still a decent amount of talent on that roster and he's capable of being the best player in that conference. And I'd argue a healthy Sixers team is actually a better roster than a healthy Bucks team, and so there's some potential there if all the stars align for this to come together for a moment of redemption for Joel Embiid. I saw the article about how bad his knee was and I do truly feel off of for him. Like I don't wish that on anybody. I hope he can get right and I hope that we can watch Joel play in some big playoff games again this year. But in the meantime, I think 14 is the appropriate spot for him on this list. All right, last guy today. Going to be a quick show today. Number 13, Kawhi Leonard. Nothing says summer like long days, clutch plays and firing off a few bets on the game. All with DraftKings sportsbook. As the season heats up, so do the bats, and DraftKings sportsbook has you covered with live betting, home run props, odds boosts and more. Whether you're chasing dingers or jumping in mid game, there's always action to be had. Never bet on baseball before. It's easy. Pick a guy to go yard, hammer some live odds mid game, or just ride your squad and hope for the best. No spreadsheets, just vibes and dingers. My favorite guys to watch are always Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtan, especially if you're betting home run props. Here's something special for first timers. New DraftKings customers bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets instantly. Download the DraftKings sportsbook app and use code HOOPS. That's H O O P S. 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We'll see Buzz try to overcome demons. What do you say, Buzz? Another beer. And triumph over addiction. Here's to you, Buzz Aldrin. Good luck to you and become a true hero. Buzz and I will proceed into the lunar module not because he conquers space, but because he conquers himself. Buzz, we intercepted a Soviet radio transmission starring me, John Lithgow. Can you put it through? Can you Translate on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts? Columbia, we all know, right? Genius is evenly distributed. Opportunity is not. It's Black Business Month, and black tech green money is tapping in. I'm Will Lucas, spotlighting black founders, investors and innovators, building the future one idea at a time. Let's talk legacy tech and generational wealth. I don't think any person of any gender, race, ethnicity should alter who they are, especially on an intellectual level or a talent level, to make someone else feel comfortable just because they are the majority in this situation and they need employment. So for me, I'm always going to be honest in saying that we need to be unapologetically ourselves. If that makes me a vocal CEO and people consider that rocking the boat, so be it. To hear this and more on the power of black innovation and ownership, listen to black tech green money from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts, adventure should never come with a pause button. Remember the MoviePass era where you could watch all the movies you wanted for just $9? It made zero sense, and I could not stop thinking about it. I'm Bridget Todd, host of the tech podcast There are no Girls on the Internet. On this new season, I'm talking to the innovators who are left out of the tech headlines, like the visionary behind MoviePass, Black founder Stacey Spikes, who was pushed out of MoviePass, the company that he founded. His story is wild, and it's currently the subject of a juicy new HBO documentary. We dive into how culture connects us. When you go to France or you go to England or you go to Hong Kong. Those kids are wearing Jordans. They're wearing Kobe's shirt. They're watching Black Panther and the Challenges of being a Black Founder. Close your eyes and tell me what a tech founder looks like. They're not going to describe someone who looks like me and they're not going to describe someone who looks looks like you. I created There are no girls on the Internet because the future belongs to all of us. So listen to There are no girls on the Internet, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Pretty Private with ebony, the podcast where silence is broken and stories are set free. I'm Ebony and every Tuesday I'll be sharing all new anonymous stories that would challenge your perceptions and give you new insight on the people people around you. On Pretty Private, we'll explore the untold experiences of women of color who faced it all. Childhood trauma, addiction, abuse, incarceration, grief, mental health struggles and more. And found the strength to make it to the other side. My dad was shot and killed in his house. Yes, he was a drug dealer. Yes, he was a confidential informant. But he wasn't shot on a street corner. He wasn't shot in the middle of a drug deal. He was shot in his house, unarmed. Pretty Private isn't just a podcast. It's your personal guide for turning storylines into lifelines. Every Tuesday, make sure you listen to Pretty Private from the Black Effect podcast network. Tune in on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite show. Last season in review for Kawhi played in just 37 games. He basically sat out until January and then for the first month kind of slowly ramped up and then more or less played like normal through the end of the season and it looked like there was a stretch there where the Clippers lost a couple back to back games to the Lakers and like it looked like Kawhi just didn't have that explosiveness. And I remember talking about it on the show like Kawhi just doesn't look physically like himself. And then all of a sudden there was a Runway there right before the end of the season where you're like, holy shit, like Kawhi's starting to look a little bit like Kawhi. And it was like, are we heading for another one of those environments where he just suddenly in a playoff series looks like he might be the best player in the world? But the bad news is is that even though the plan worked and they got him to the finish line and he was Able to finish the playoff run, the albeit short playoff run, without getting hurt. It was also the first year that I can remember where a healthy Kawhi didn't feel like the indomitable force that he was in previous years. When Kawhi was healthy in 2020 and in 2021 and in 2023, before he got hurt in those three, in the last two playoff runs and before he got eliminated in 2020, he was that classic robot Kawhi with the scoring and efficiency. His numbers in those three playoff runs are kind of insane. 30 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 63.4% true shooting. That's like off the charts good. And all of us remember what it was like watching him in those games. He looked like he was every bit as good as the very best players in the world. When that was happening, that was the upside that we were all clinging to when we would discuss the Clippers. If Kawhi can stay healthy, he can be the best player in a playoff run potentially for the handful of games and what was it, 2023, he would look better than KD in those games before he got hurt. That Clippers team looked destined for a destined for a finals run in 2021 before he got hurt. But that upside just didn't materialize this year. We got one game. Game two was wild vintage. Kawhi, 15 for 19 from the field, four for seven from three, 39 points, walked down the Nuggets with two ice cold jumpers in the final two and a half minutes. It felt like those other playoff runs. But Outside of Game 2 against Denver, he was never able to bring that true superstar forced to bear. Game one, nine for 15 from the field, which is obviously efficient, but he had just 22 points and he had seven turnovers with only two assists. It was a bad game for Kawhi. Game three, seven for 17. Game four, 10 for 22, 24 points, two assists. That's a mediocre superstar game. A bad Superstar game. Game 5, 8 for 15 from the field, 20 points, 11 assists. A fine game, but nothing special. Game 6, 27, 10 and 5 on 11 for 22. That's a really good game, but that's not like robot Superhero Kawhi. Game seven, elimination. Everything on the line. Six for 13, 22 points, five rebounds, two assists. And there's context there. Like Denver brought a lot of double teams against Kawhi in that series. But at the same time, Kawhi did a really poor job of managing and solving those double teams. So even though the shooting percentages as you zoomed out from the series, he was still 50, 40. Like, the shooting percentages look fine, but if you take out game two, he was actually pretty mediocre in that series and his scoring volume wasn't good at all. So the bottom line is, in years past, it felt like a healthy Kawhi was as good as the best player is in the league. But this year, Kawhi went into the playoffs healthy and he didn't come close to that level. And that was really sad for me as a basketball fan. One of the things it felt like as we were watching it was like, oh man, like, is this the end of Kawhi's prime? Like, for me as a basketball fan, I actually really like watching Kawhi. There's a lot of, like when I, when I play in the post, a lot of the post work that I do, I've tried to mimic Kawhi in terms of physical post up play and using your shoulders to get separation. Like, Kawhi is a player that I've always been drawn to and it feels like we got robbed of his prime and now it just feels like we're on the other side and that really sucks. Take a look at the season real quick. Let's go through some of his numbers. 37 games played, he had 22 points, six rebounds and three assists. 2.1 stocks per game, 1.6 steals, which actually ranked 17th in the NBA. His percentages, he was below 50, just below 50% from the field. That was his first time below 50 since 2020. 41 from three and five attempts per game. Shot the ball well there. 81 from the line, but only three attempts per game. And this is perhaps the most concerning stat as it pertains to Kawhi's declining athleticism. Kawhi is not a grifter. He doesn't get to the line by doing janky shit. He gets to the line as a supreme athlete that gets defenders out of position. But if you look back, his last full healthy season in San Antonio, his season in Toronto, where he won the title, his season with the Clippers in 2020, in those seasons, he posted over seven free throw attempts per game. In each of those three seasons, this year just three. So less than half what he was at his peak. He's just not getting defenders out of position the way that he used to. 56% in effective field goal percentage, which is fine, but it's not Kawhi. 59% true shooting, which is fine. It's not Kawhi. It's his lowest since 2020. Play type data this is where you can really see the drop off down across the board. He was below a point per possession in pick and roll. The year before he was at 1.04 which was 69th percentile. So he dropped substantially year over year as a pick and roll player. He was below a point per possession in ISO this year. The year before he was one of the best ISO players In the league, 1.25 points per ISO including passes which was in the 96th percentile. This year in the post, 1.07 points per possession which is slightly above average. But one year prior 1.147 points better per 100 possessions. A massive year over year deep a dip in his play type in his shot creation out of various play types. So I mean the reason why Kawhi's dropped all the way to 13 on this list is simply that the equation has changed. It used to be that like if you could somehow navigate the season and get to the finish line with a healthy Kawhi, you got to have a top tier superstar at that point and he had the potential to outplay the best players in the league. He gave you that crazy upside, right? That like maybe they can win the title upside. But now it feels like if you get through a season with a healthy Kawhi, you get a second tier superstar. A guy that on any one night like in game two can reach that level and outplay the best players in the world, but a guy who on most nights is probably going to be a level below that. So that's how he lands at number 13 this year. All right guys, that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. We'll be back on a Wednesday with number 12 and number 11. I will see you guys then. Summer's here and it's time to bring the heat in a new Honda, head out on an unforgettable adventure or take a sporty sedan for a spin, all while driving with confidence. Check out the Civic Accord or HRV during the Honda Summer event. See Dealer for financing details. I'm Jake Hofer and this is back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access? Should you? That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand. Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. It's Black Business Month and Money and wealth podcast with John Hope Bryant is tapping in. I'm breaking down how to build wealth, create opportunities, and move from surviving to thriving. It's time to talk about ownership, equity and everything in between. Black and brown communities have historically been last in line. Let me just say this AI is moving faster than civil rights legislation ever did. Listen to Money and Wealth from the Black Effect podcast network on iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. From tips for healthy living to the latest medical breakthroughs, WebMD's Health Discovered podcast keeps you up to date on today's most important health through in depth conversations with experts from across the healthcare community, WebMD reveals how today's health news will impact your life tomorrow. It's not that people don't know that exercise is healthy, it's just that people don't know why it's healthy. And we're struggling to try to help people help themselves and each other. Listen to WebMD Health discovered on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart podcast.