Host (16:28)
all right, moving on to Houston. So I want to dive into this dynamic. One of the things that we've talked a lot about when it comes to like the pathways to contention is you either got to dominate the half court battle or you got to dominate on the margins. Those are like the two environments in a basketball game, right? There's the static half court environment which is like everybody's back on defense. My five guys versus your five guys. Defense is set. Let's see if we can score or let's see if we can guard on the other end of the floor, right? It's very static dynamic. But then everything outside of that dynamic is an Is the the alternative ways you can win basketball games? It's the special teams, so to speak, of the nb. Can you win the offensive rebounding battle? Can you win by forcing turnovers? Can you win by out running and just getting up and down the floor in transition? Can you win by getting to the foul line a lot? There's a bunch of like different margins that you can hunt outside of that static half court environment. Now Houston's offense has slipped all the way down to the 22nd half court offense in the NBA. Now their half court offense was much better to start the year, but throughout most of the year their offense has been bolstered by things like the offensive glass as well as getting out in transition and things along those lines. But the offense has tapered off as they haven't shot the ball as well. They were red hot to start the season. Stephen Adams obviously goes out with an injury and changes your offensive rebounding dynamic that that slipped. And so there's been a bigger spotlight specifically on their half court offense. They're incredibly turnover prone. They handle doubles poorly, they handle traps poorly. Everyone's responsible. Kevin Durant's terrible at it. He seems to. It's amazing to me how often KD gets caught off guard by doubles considering how often he's been doubled this year. Like there are several times against Denver last night where it's like the double catches him and he just kind of panics and he just throws the ball right into the, to the trapper's hands. And it's like, dude, you've seen 500 double teams this year. Like, like, like you've got to be a little bit more ready, a little bit more prepared. Reed shepherd is so small that he'll have games where he stacks up turnovers, similarly throwing the ball into length. Shangun has 16 games this year with five plus turnovers, which is crazy for a guy that has a usage rate that's high, but not like anywhere near as high as most of the ball handlers in the NBA. And they'll have sequences where they handle traps well and they'll get a dunk. Like last night, it was a nice little display of Joshua Koji's interior passing. I thought he had a lot of like, nice little like connective plays in the middle of four where he caught the ball, quickly read the situation, dumped it off. Herman Thompson gets a dunk, something like that. But they just have way too many possessions where they botch it somewhere along the way. Like the ball handler will throw it right into the opponent's hands or the short roll guy will turn it over in the middle of the floor. Or like the someone will catch it underneath the basket in the dunker spot but like not actually be able to finish because they didn't process it fast enough. And now all of a sudden everyone's reacted and they've been a really poor jump shooting team for a while now since December 15, which is where things really started to go off the rails a bit for Houston. Their 20th and three point percentage and 27th and three point makes. That was getting floated earlier in the season by them just shooting way out of their depth. A lot of guys, we've talked about it on the show, like these are guys where it's like these guys don't typically shoot the ball super well, you know. And my whole thing was like, maybe these other guys will fill the gap. Like maybe Dorian Finney Smith will come in and shoot better. And like the opposite has happened. Like those guys have stayed cold. And the guys that had been shooting well early in this like Tar Eason is cooled off considerably. Most of their bench guards can't shoot. And so as a result, like Denver, you saw it last night, their ability to consistently just stash Jamal Murray or Nicole Jokic on non shooters, to muck up everything in Houston's offense, or to throw random double teams at kd that caused a ton of problems. And when you got guys like Jokic and Murray in Particular, like they're both really gifted defensive playmakers. When they get to use their IQ to like anticipate plays and their quick reflexes to get deflections, they can actually be good defenders as opposed to situations where they're forced to guard in space, which is something that Houston can't make them do. I think Houston might be dead on arrival in this particular matchup against Denver. Denver is just too good at playing defense against this type of team. These types of teams that give them the flexibility to stash their defensive playmakers on guys that can't score or can't shoot. And like Houston looked hopeless last night on defense trying to guard Denver's five. So like, I don't think Denver is going to be able to cause anywhere near as many problems, excuse me, I don't think Houston's going to be able to cause anywhere near as many problems for Denver starting five as Denver can cause for Houston with what they can do defensively. And as we talked about the problem with your half court offense issues, when you have a bad half court offense, you have to be great on the margins to make up for it. Like what Houston did early in the year or what Detroit has been doing all season since Stephen Adams went down. They're not even winning the offensive rebound battle anymore. Since January 20th, that's the first game they played after Stephen Adams was out for the season. They're losing the offense rebounded battle. They are allowing 16 and a half second chance points per game and getting 16.1. So negative 0.4 points per points per game in the second chance battle. That is a, that is no longer a positive margin for them since Stephen Adams went down. They get annihilated in transition and in points off of turnovers because they can't take care of the basketball. They lose points off of turnovers by 4.7 points every single game and they lose fast break points by 3.4 points per game. So now they are negative across the board in the margins. And the turnovers, fast break stuff, that's just the nature of their inability to take care of the basketball. But they're even slightly losing offensive rebounding. And so when you actually get killed in the margins and you can't score in the half court, that's going to put you in a really, really tough spot. The one thing that they have, the one strong point that they have is that they are a very good defense. And so that is what has allowed them to win the amount of games that they have. The concerning part to me though, is what used to be a very strong part of their contending case was how well they performed against the top teams. That was something I talked a lot about earlier in the season. Was like, well, every single time they end up in a big game, they compete really well and they've won so many of them. Well, that has completely gone the other direction. Back to back blowout losses to Denver and San Antonio. They lost to the Knicks a few weeks back. The last time they beat one of my top nine contenders was that win in Oklahoma City against the Thunder, but that was without A.J. mitchell, without Shay, Gil Alexander or J Dub. So like basically the, the, the, the shell of the Thunder with no ball handling, a completely different type of challenge. Right? Like, barely even resembles what they, what they look like when at least Shea is out there. Right? And then before that, before that win in Oklahoma City, blown out at home by the Celtics, that crazy fourth quarter debacle against the spurs where they ended up losing by 12. You have to go all the way back to January 23rd when they won that big game on the road in Detroit. That was the last time the Rockets beat one of the top nine contenders, if we don't count that Oklahoma City win with. Which again was without Shay J. Dubber, A.J. mitchell. So, like, it hasn't been pretty. It's been trending in the wrong direction for a long time. Again, if you look at the team, they have one true strength. They're a good defensive team. They are ninth in offensive rating on the season, but those numbers were floated by their absurd shooting in the early part of the season. And since then it's trend trended significantly downward. And again, they've been losing the second chance points battle since Stephen Adams went down. So you're a good defense, not even a great defense. They've been 10th in defensive ratings since December 15th. So it's not like they've been an elite defense, but they've been a good defense for, for, for most of the season. And the offensive rebound margin is gone and their offense has fallen off of a cliff. And so I'm beginning to look at the Rockets the way that I look at the Lakers. You can't completely count them out because you got KD and you got a good defense. And we all know that Shangun is capable of playing dominant basketball for stretches. Although Shangun's kind of, kind of having a disappointing season for the Lakers. It's different. It's like, well, what about if LeBron, Luka and Austin just get hot for a month all at the same time. But both of these teams are so deeply flawed compared to those other middle tier west teams. Again, those four, they're all right next to each other in the standings. And all season long I've been saying this. Like, I see a lot of Lakers fans already like, oh my gosh, like, we're tied for the third seed in the West. And it's like, what have I been saying? All everyone in that chunk of the standings is like one bad week from being the sixth seed and one great week from being the three seed. Like, and that's why it just keeps going like this all, all damn season long. Denver's up to three, Denver's down to six. Houston's up to three, Houston's down to five. Like, it's just everyone's going up and down because they're all just kind of clustered on each other. But if you actually dig into why their records look the way that they look. And again, I don't want to pretend like Houston and the Lakers don't have some injury things that have popped up this year. Obviously the Stephen Adams injury hurt the team. Obviously the Lakers have missed one of their three stars for the majority of the season. But like, no one has come close to the injury luck that Denver's had. They're way better than their record because they've just been decimated by injuries. And like we talked about, I'm not falling for the bullshit Minnesota thing again. Like, this is like the 20th time I've watched them in the last two seasons where I'm like, this team looks absolutely terrible, but we just know they get into the postseason, they ratchet up their athleticism in physicality, they can defend better than most teams in the league. And it just turns out that Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle and Nas Reed are really difficult to guard in playoff basketball when they start really starting to impose themselves physically. So I think Minnesota and Denver are kind of in their own tier there. When we've done our contender rankings, I've kind of kept things really simple. Top tier contender, second tier contender. In our last two sets of contender rankings, I'm really going to start to try to parse them out into even smaller tiers as we start to look at what separates these teams and how good of a chance they actually have. But to me, Houston and LA are kind of in that same grouping as like, these teams are just so profoundly flawed. You know, the Houston's offense is just terrible and they don't win on the margins anymore. And the Lakers simply don't have the defensive personnel or the overall physicality and athleticism to hang with the top teams in the league. So I'd be shocked if either of those two teams like won multiple playoff series and we were watching them in the Western Conference finals. I'll, I'll probably be picking against both of them in their first round series. All right, quickly, before we get out of here today, I wanted to just briefly talk about the Orlando Magic. They've won five games in a row after a big win against the Cleveland Cavaliers last night. They're 114 in their last 15 games. They've been the best defense in the league in that span. And there's a couple of specific things that I want to dive into that I think have been driving that. First of all, a lot of switching, especially 1 through 4. Wendell Carter Jr. Will switch at the 5 when needed. But one of the, and this is one of, there's a couple of clear distinctions that makes their switching attack work really well. So one, they switch but they apply ball pressure. So it's not a passive switching like hang back, keep the ball in front type of defense. They switch and they can get physical and ball and pressure the ball. Two, they don't switch when they don't have to. So like for instance last night, Donovan Mitchell is trying to hunt Wendell Carter Jr. And ball screens because he wants to have an easier opportunity to drive. And like sometimes Jalen Suggs will just be like, guess what, you're not setting a screen on me. Like, and he's super athletic and bulky and strong and, and he'll just sidle up and get really thin and just get over the top of the screen. He'll chest you up on the other end. And like there were sequences last night where Donovan like straight up couldn't shake Jalen in ball screens. And that's the kind of thing that can happen at times when you have that level of perimeter defender, their wing, same sort of thing. Like they're, you'll see like they will switch any action in that one through four if there's like a really good pick set. But like if guys are trying to slip or if there's any sort of like opportunity to stay attached, they'll stay attached so they don't concede switches that they don't need to. And then lastly they stay home off the ball and they trust their on ball defenders. That's what's different with this kind of switching attack compared to like another team that does a lot of switching but that doesn't have the perimeter defenders to make it work. The classic example of this is the Lakers. They run a ton of switching and they just have a bunch of bad defenders. So they sag back. And you know, the Lakers have been playing better defense as of late, but they don't have the personnel to like really, really contain the ball. Orlando has the personnel to really, really contain the ball. This allows them to stay home in off ball situations when people are attacking their matchups. And so as a result, they've been great at keeping teams off the three point line all season. But they're number one in the league in opponent three pointers, made an opponent three point percentage in this 15 game span where they're 114 while still being eighth in opponent points in the paint. So like that is a really impressive switching defense. That's really impressive individual on ball defense to be getting less help than the majority of defenses around the league are giving. But to still be a top 10 protecting the paint defense. Everyone's just doing a fantastic job of containing the ball in those situations. And then, and this is the big surprise, in this 15 game span they are 10th in offense. And there's a couple of specific things that I want to zero in on. One, I think Desmond Bain and Palo Bunchero have just been playing fantastic basketball. You could really see early in the year that there was a natural fit there. They had some stuff they had to work out. I didn't like the way that they were attacking on offense in the early part of the season. It felt very. Your turn. My turn. But the two of those guys have had such a great attacking mentality as of late. Paolo is fully healthy now and he's just getting downhill all the time. And then Desmond Bain, you know, he's the kind of guy that uses his jump shooting ability to generate driving angles better than most guards in the league. And so he gets screaming downhill all the time. He killed the Cavs in the second half last night, just getting all the way to the front of the rim. Those two guys in this 15 game span are averaging 49.3 points per game. They've both been shooting the ball really well from an efficiency standpoint. Awesome basketball from Desmond Bain and Paloma Caro. All these like little random contributions here and there, like Anthony Black will have a massive game one night. Wendell Carter Jr. Was awesome in that second half run last night. And then as a team they've been shooting the ball from three. Okay. And that's the key because for the majority of the season they've been in the bottom five and three point percentage in this 15 game. Spanish, they've been 17th in three point percentage. Just handful of contributions across the board like Paulo shooting in the mid-30s instead of way below that, right? Or like, you know, Jet Howard comes in and hits a couple of threes last night. Javon Carter hit one. Jalen Suggs has been shooting the ball. Tristan De Silva has been shooting the ball. Well, Wendell Carter Jr. Stepped in and hit a big three out of the right corner last night. Like just guys making a few more than they had been missing early in the season, making them that like average three point shooting team. When you're just providing that in conjunction with basket attacking, you're really difficult to guard. That's when things turned in. That Cavs game yesterday, especially in that late third quarter run. It's just, you know, Jet Howard and, and Javon Carter and Wendell Carter Jr. All hit some threes and it's like, man, that's nine points. That's a big deal in a game like that. So just getting a little bit of of better reliability in their spot up shooting has gone a long way. Orlando's playing some good basketball again. They've had a little bit of a light schedule in this run, but they have a couple of really big impressive wins in that span, including that big win against the Cavs last night. They have Washington next. That's an easy one. But they do play the Oklahoma City Thunder on March 17th. That'll be a really interesting one to watch. Their switch and contain scheme versus Oklahoma City's ability to drive the basketball. I'm excited to watch that one. All right, guys, that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. We'll be back tomorrow with our contender rankings. I will see you guys then.