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Jason Timpf
Foreign.
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Greg Rosenthal
What'S up everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal and I'm teaming up with the King of Spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs mock drafts to my top 101, free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
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Jason Timpf
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- [02:57]
Greg Rosenthal
All right.
- [02:57]
Jason Timpf
Welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Thursday everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great week. We're continuing our series previews today with the Golden State warriors and the Houston Rockets going to be using the same format. We'll go over the season series, the gambling odds right now, warriors on offense, Rockets on offense, swing factors for the series and then my pick at the tail end. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at_jason lt so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcast on our Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating and a review on that front. We have brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook where Jackson's doing incredible content throughout the year. Make sure you guys follow us there. And then last but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube comments so we can keep getting to them throughout the remainder of the season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So the season series for the warriors and the Rockets, they played five times this year thanks to the in season tournament. Giving them that extra game, the warriors won the season series three to two. They are one and one in the Jimmy Butler era. Most recently the Rockets did beat the warriors in the Bay and they that was the game where they held Steph to three points but that was their fourth game in six nights. I also rewatched that game again this morning and really was amazed by the difference in intensity between like the last two games I saw the warriors play against the Clippers and the Grizzlies versus that game. So I don't think there's necessarily too much to take away from that one, but we'll get into some of those details as we get deeper into the show. So our odds again, all of our odds are provided by DraftKings. As of Wednesday morning, the warriors were a minus 200 favorite. Feels about right. That's the third largest favorite out of the first round series that we have. The six series that we have behind the Celtics series and the Knicks series. Let's start with the warriors on offense. This is going to be the focal point of the series because of the reputation that Houston has as a defensive team. It even feels like when you talk about the Rockets, their star power is their defensive talent. You hear more about Dylan Brooks in Amend Thompson than you do about Fred Van Vliet and Alper and Shangun, the guys that are their primary shot creators. Right. The Rockets defense has had a great deal of success, specifically slowing down the warriors offense. In their last four matchups this year, the Rockets held the warriors to below 100 points three times. They logged a 100 defensive rating overall. Let's start with some matchups. The main schematic thing that Houston does in their starting group, at least in their man to man looks, is they put Alperin Shangun on Moses Moody. The reason why they do this is Moses Moody is the player that the warriors least like to use in the starting lineup. As a screener and as a guy who makes decisions out of those screening situations, he's the weakest read and react player among the starters. He's better than some of the guys they have on their bench, but among that starting group, he's the weakest player in that specific regard. So they prefer to keep him in the corner and not have him run too much in the way of action. And so if you do that against Sengun, then you allow Shangun to hide. And in their last matchup they did attack Sengun less than they are capable of attacking him, especially early in the game. But that's the main schematic thing. They'll do Sengun on Moses Moody and then they'll deploy their best three perimeter defenders on Steph, Jimmy and Draymond. So it'll be usually Amend Thompson on Steph and then either Brooks on Draymond or Fred Van Vliet on Draymond with the other one on Jimmy Butler. And so then what they do is they have the ability to switch any screening action that involves Steph and Jimmy or Steph and Draymond or Jimmy and Draymond. Right? They can switch any of those actions. An example is like the late gameplay against the Grizzlies last night. Clutch time, inverted ball screen. Jimmy's got the ball. Steph screens for Jimmy on his left Side Jimmy gets downhill, kicks it to Draymond, and Steph comes flying off of a handoff from Draymond in the left cor. That's an example of a play where the Grizzlies were not switching. So Scotty Pippen Jr. Had to chase Steph. Really difficult action to guard. He gets caught up, gives up a wide open 3. The Rockets will just switch that action. They have the ability to switch most of the pet actions that the warriors like to run. So that's essentially the problem, the natural actions that the warriors like to run. Houston has the ability to shut down with quality switching as long as they execute it properly. Right. But there's still plenty of opportunities for Golden State to try to attack and get openings with that setup. So, first of all, using Moody as a screener, it's a little complicated. Houston's drop coverage looks are better than most of the drop coverage looks you've seen in the league. Like, these dudes stay attached on screening actions. They chase over the top. They do not give up openings there. There was a early play in the Sunday game two weeks ago where Steph ran a ball screen with Moses Moody to try to go at Shangun, and his defender just stayed attached three the entire. I think it was a man. Thompson just stayed attached through the entire action, and there was just no opening there. And so that's part of it. Like, it's just not an action that Moses Moody's used to. He's not used to setting a bunch of on ball screens. It's just. It's a little bit tougher of a situation for them to put the warriors in. But there were openings, particularly with pods. Pazemski is guarded by Jalen Green for the most part in this matchup, and he's the weakest perimeter defender in the Rockets rotation. They were able to get an open pick and pop three for Moses Moody with a basic screening action with Pods. Early in that game, Pods just threw a bad pass. But I do think that could be a useful second side action for them. You can imagine them doing Steph, Jimmy Draymond stuff on the strong side, and then if the ball gets swung to the other side, you can have Pods run action with Moody to see if you can get an opening there. I also think because Houston's offense is so weak, the warriors could potentially get away, specifically in this matchup with weaker defensive personnel because of Houston's limitations. So, like, could you get away with running Steph Pods? Jimmy Draymond and Buddy Healed in this series in a way that you might not be able to get away with it in a Clipper series so that you can't hide Shangun on Buddy Healed. If you hide Shangun on Buddy Healed, you're going to be in a situation where Buddy's hitting wide open, catch and shoot threes, right? If you move Shangoon onto Draymond or onto Jimmy, then all of a sudden those pet actions that the warriors like to run suddenly get opened up and Draymond can set better screens to free up Steph, and they can get into some of the similar sequences that their offense is most comfortable using. But I think that would be something that would be strictly in this series. I don't think you could get away with playing Buddy heel big minutes with the starters unless it was in a series like this where they're not as worried about him getting capitalized on on the other end of the floor. Now, obviously you're not going to be able to just spam Moses Moody action or Spam, you know, something to attack Alper and Shangoon every single time down the floor. There's going to be situations where the warriors are going to need to confront Houston switching head on and generate quality shots. Right now, the warriors have a very different approach to beating switching than most teams do. Most teams do it by hunting matchups, right? They'll pick on the weakest defender and they'll get their best offensive player in a situation where they like the spacing around him and they'll have that guy go one on one. That's not what the warriors do. The warriors attack switching with a ton of player movement and screening, essentially hoping that you'll make mistakes like both of you will chase Steph or you'll, you know, give up inside position to Jimmy Butler for an easy over the top pass. Or you'll lose somebody in rotation that they're looking for, putting you in the blender and you messing up your switches. And they did have some success in that game two Sundays ago. Even though Steph only had three points in that game, he did generate several baskets for his team just by running around in those sequences and forcing the Rockets to overplay him and leave some other guy open on a slip. But there's no doubt that this Rockets team can drag this warriors offense down into the mud. That's their superpower. You want to know how the Rockets ended up with the two seed in the Western Conference with all those good teams? Because of what they can do on the defensive end of the floor. The zone looks. The Rockets ran zero possessions of zone for the first 2/3 of the season, but they've run a ton of it here down the stretch. They run several variations of it. They're all based on a 2, 3. You'll see two big versions with Adams underneath the underneath the basket and Shangoon in one of the corners. Adams is usually playing further back, very rim focused catches in the middle. He'll stunt, but he's not actually going to close out there. Just basically saying you're going to have to shoot over the top of us. It's a, it's a force you to make jump shots type of zone. You'll see a similar zone without Shangun with just Adams out there, very similar concept. And then they'll do one with Jabari Smithead Jr. More of a small ball look and he'll be more active. He'll show at the level. He'll guard the man that catches in the middle of the floor. This is much more of an amoeba type of zone where more of a matchup zone where. Where guys are moving around and occupying different spots. But they're very good at it. Despite only using it at the end of the season, the Rockets ended up logging 372 possessions of zone on the season, which was fourth most in the entire NBA by total. And they allowed just 0.89 points per possession in those zone possessions, which was the third highest mark in the NBA in terms of holding. Def. Holding offenses down with your zone defense. So they have a very good, very successful zone defense that I expect to be a real factor in this series. I expect to see a lot of zone potentially for both teams as we'll discuss in a minute when we get to the Rockets on offense. Now how can the warriors beat the zone? The warriors only face the rocket zone for 10 possessions in that game on Sunday and in all of their previous matchups the Rockets weren't running any zone. So we only have 10 possessions to look at. But it's worth mentioning that the warriors only scored on that zone twice in 10 possessions. Gary Payton semi contested three and a Jimmy Butler semi contested three. They struggled specifically with getting the ball to the middle of the floor and that guy not looking to score. And when he wasn't looking to score, they were able to kind of stay home. And here's the thing. When you're going against a 2, 3 zone, think of it in terms of the geometry of the geometry. If you can score in the middle of the floor, you can force the defense to collapse around you and the sprayouts are there and the drop offs along the baseline are there, but if you can't show a willingness to score in the middle of the floor against a zone, it changes. It's not a 23 zone anymore. It's basically a 41 zone. You got a guy sitting right underneath the basket, you got a guy guarding the left corner three, you got a guy guarding the right corner three and you got two guys on the above the break threes, essentially four guys guarding the three point line and one guy directly under the basket. If you allow them to play defense like that, that's where you can end up in some real trouble against the Rocket zone. This is where Jimmy Butler needs to do exactly what he did in these last two games, especially in the last game against Memphis's bigs. When Jimmy catches there in the middle of the floor, he needs to look to score. Sometimes a floater, sometimes a little short mid range jump shot, a lot of those funky driving angles and awkward takeoff points that we talked about after the playing game where Jimmy can draw fouls against some of the clumsy bigs around the basket. Jimmy's going to be the key to breaking down that zone defense with his skills there in the middle of the floor. Also worth mentioning, the Rockets ran the majority of that zone during the lineups when Steph was off the floor in that one particular game. But I do think we'll probably see some zone even with Steph on the floor at least to try to see if they can get some for some discomfort there. But Jimmy is a little hesitant as we know as a score. From time to time he has a tendency sometimes to catch in the middle of the floor, not look to score.
- [14:29]
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- [14:56]
Jason Timpf
Foreign.
- [14:59]
Greg Rosenthal
What'S up everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal and I'm teaming up with the King of Spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season from DJ's Mock Drafts to my top 101 free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
- [15:28]
Jason Timpf
Just like they did in the last four matchups, I do think that this Rockets defense will drag this warriors offense down into the mud, but there's another side to the ball, so let's move over to Rockets on offense. The warriors also logged a 100 defensive rating against Houston in their last four matchups and I think they can do even better. Like I talked about, they caused a lot of problems for the Rockets offense in that game two Sundays ago despite a a really a gigantic drop off in intensity compared to the two games that we most recently saw from the Warriors. I'm a big believer in this warriors defense. I think their ability to swarm and to make teams feel uncomfortable and to make role players rush and to play you into what makes you to play you into what you don't want to do has a real impact on these teams and I think that they are capable of doing a lot of damage to this Rockets offense. Matchups I think we'll see Draymond and Alpern Shangun, Moses Moody on Jalen Green, Brandon Pajemski on Fred Van Vliet, Steph on Dylan Brooks and Jimmy Butler on Amend Thompson. So let's talk about some things to look for with those particular matchups. 1. Dylan Brooks did have some success attacking Steph in the post in their last matchup, but I think Houston leaning too far into that would be a mistake. He was taking turnaround fadeaways, particularly over his right shoulder. If he's not making at least 45% of those, that's a bad shot in a series like this. Shangoon also had some success going one on one at Draymond in the game two Sundays ago. Again, there's some success there, but if he's not getting a bucket more than half the time, it's just not a good idea in a series like this to attack Draymond Green. They need to find weaker points in the warriors defense. Pick and roll in particular, start with them attacking Draymond in pick and roll. The warriors will run high drop with Draymond in Shangon action against friend Van Vliet and against Jaylen Green. Any screening actions with Amend Thompson and Dylan Brooks, Draymond's going to sit way back. Draymond will come up to the level Against Shangun what he was doing, they were having low man help but Draymond was trying to disengage quickly off the pass and try to recover to Shane Goon at the rim. But they will mix in some switching or they'll peel off if the guard just gets wiped out by screen. And Draymond will go with Fred or Draymond will go with Jalen and Shangun will have post mismatches against Smalls and when he was going to those in that game he was really, really effective. So there will be opportunities for Sengun to attack mismatches. It just needs to be against the mismatches and not just going headlong against some of the best defenders that Golden State has. Jalen Green in his jump shot, he's going to be able to get that pull up three off. He's going to be able to get that pull up mid range shot off. His athleticism is a real advantage in a series like this, but he's a high variance player sometimes he's hitting his pull up jumper and he's getting to the rim and he's going off for 30 something points. And the Rockets are really tough to beat when that happens. The Rockets are 13 and 1 this year when Jalen Green scores at least 30 points. But he'll also have games where the jumper isn't falling and he's over penetrating and he's making bad decisions at the rim and missing layups and falling on the ground and leading to transition sequences. And Udoka will just bail on him if that happens. In fact, I think if you asked IME Udoka, who's the five guys that you trust most to go down in this series? I think he'd say the starters, but I think he'd swap in Jabari Smith Jr. For Jalen Green. Jabari is a more reliable higher floor, lower ceiling type of player who can hit spot up threes who can attack matchups from time to time. He had some success against smaller warriors players this year and he's a very gifted offensive rebounder. That adds to the physical element that this team brings when it's a men Thompson and Alpern, Shangoon and Jabari Smith Jr. All on the floor together, this team can be really difficult to keep off of the offensive glass and and that's not even counting their bench groups when Steven Adams is out there. But the main problem for Houston and the reason why I think the warriors will eventually slow them down is they just don't have enough shooting. You can load up on their better offensive players and tilt their offense towards catch and shoot threes for streaky shooters. The rockets are bottom 10 in both three pointers made and in three point percentage this year and they finished the year 22nd in overall half court offense according to Cleaning the Glass. That's really what it comes down to for me. I just think any potential problem that Houston can present for Golden State's offense is an even bigger problem for Houston on the other end of the floor. Even zone defense. The warriors had a game against Houston back in February where they ran 15 possessions of zone and allowed just 3 points total in 15 possessions, 0.2 points per possession. So even zone I feel like would stand to damage Houston more than it would stand to hurt Golden State. So let's talk about some swing factors. Where could this series go off the rails for either team defense to transition? If the warriors succumb to the ball pressure and the physicality and they start getting sloppy with the ball, Houston can get out and run on them and they are a much more efficient transition offense than they are half court offense. In fact, I do think Houston will win a couple of games in this series in that fashion. I wouldn't be surprised if for one of the games, likely either game one or game five if we saw Houston just beat the shit out of them because Golden State just lets go of the rope and saves their legs and their energy to try to win the next game. They that is where Houston will be successful defense to transition to Jalen Green's pull up shooting. As I mentioned earlier, when Jalen Green has a scoring going, you lose to the Rockets 13 and 1. This year when Jalen scores at least 30 points even against good teams. Memphis lost like that. Minnesota lost like that. Denver lost like that. The Oklahoma City Thunder lost like that. My team, the Los Angeles Lakers lost like that. The Clippers lost like that. All in those 13 teams to lose to Jalen Green scoring at least 30 points, those teams were among the fallen. So that that is a big swing factor in the series. If Jalen Green just comes out and has a great series, the warriors could very easily lose. Now for the record, I don't think that will happen. I think it's more likely that it goes the other way with Jalen Green, that he really struggles and makes some bad decisions and that Ema Udoka bails on him and he ends up having his minutes cut over the course of the series. That's what I think is going to happen. But the outcome of Jalen Green going off is always a possibility that we have to consider. And then lastly, role players jump shooting for both teams. A lot of catch and shoot threes in this series that both teams will kind of concede for Houston. Dylan Brooks, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, Amen Thompson for Golden State, Moses Moody, Brandon Pajemski, Gary Payton, the second, Draymond Green. If one of those groups dramatically outshoots the other, it could swing this series. But that said, I do think that those shooters for Golden State are a little bit more reliable and I think that Golden State will be able to do more damage than Houston can do in return. I'm picking the warriors in six games. I think they split in Houston, win both games back in Golden State, lose Game 5 and then close it out at home. If I had to guess the pathway of the series, but I think the warriors are going to win in six games. I think there will be parts of the series where Houston goes on crazy runs fueled by defense and forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. But outside of those runs, I think the warriors are going to methodically out execute them in the half court. I think this warriors defense is really special and I think they'll eventually strangle the life out of Houston and take care of business. All right guys, that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. I will see you guys next time. What's up guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting Hoops tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it.
- [23:27]
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The Volume.
- [23:31]
Greg Rosenthal
What'S up everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal and I'm teaming up with the King of Spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs, mock drafts to my top 101 free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.