Colin (14:09)

All right.

Jason (14:09)

The key for the Knicks defense before we move on defensive communication and effort in rotation between the relentless transition pushes that Indiana's famous for and accounting for. Turner spacing off of Cat and Siakam, drawing double teams on guys like Josh Hart in the post or whoever else it might be, or if it's Brunson hedging and recovering and. And Nemhard getting clean catches. Whatever it is, the Knicks will likely spend most of the series in man down situations, meaning someone for Indiana will be open and the Knicks will have to rotate to that guy. OG McHale and Josh Hart are all fantastic rotators when they are locked in. But as many Knicks fans will tell you, they can also have bad nights. So that's something to keep an eye on. If they have one too many of those bad nights, it could cost them the series. All right, let's move to New York on offense. I expect Aaron Eastmith to start on Jalen Brunson. We have a pretty solid sample size now of Nemhard doing a good job on Brunson, but Brunson just being a bit too strong for nem. Hard and very capable of shooting over the top. So. And also just based on what happened last in their final regular season matchup in February, this year. Carlisle started with Niecemith on on Brunson, so I think we'll see Neesmith on there. Brunson has had success against Neesmith, but it just looks harder. He's bigger and stronger, can't bump him as easily. It's harder for him to shoot over the top. I think that makes the most sense. Ball pressure is going to be the key here. The Pacers will likely attempt to pick up Jalen Brunson full court all series, and Brunson's good at handling pressure, but there's a wear and tear factor. It could lead to fatigue for Brunson as games progress or as the series progresses. So the Knicks could look to mitigate this by having someone else bring the ball up the floor, right? Have Josh Hart bring it up, have Mikhail Bridges bring it up, but the Pacers will pressure that guy too. They ball pressure everyone full court, so it's just on the Knicks to avoid getting sped up, to avoid losing control of the game. And those like defense to transition sequences because they turn the ball over, take bad shots against ball pressure. That is going to be a big swing factor in this series. As for Neesmith and Nemhard, the job is just stay attached and make him work in the regular season in pick and roll. The Pacers used at the level coverages with both Turner and Bryant, meaning meeting Brunson before he can come around and turn the corner. That actually made Brunson more of a score and his scoring totals were lower in this matchup. In the regular season, he averaged about 20 points per game efficiently, but only about 20 points per game. They made him get rid of the ball more, but there's two edges to that sword. Cat lit up the Pacers this year in that Pacer in that coverage. If you're bringing two on the ball to attend to Brunson, there are going to be advantages beneath like on the pop or if they rotate to the pop on the weak side. Like that's where the the Knicks did a lot of damage to Indiana this year. Again, the job though, dealing with Brunson in those ball screens. It's a bracket, so whether it's Miles Turner or it's Thomas Bryant, they got to be active up at the level of the screen and then Nemhard and Neesmith just have to chase over the top. Stay attached right in ISO situations and again, we know Brunson will ISO those guys straight up dozens of times in this series. Slide your feet, take contact in the chest, attack his base before he goes up, get a good contest live with the results. Hope he wears down. But to be clear, Jalen Brunson is just playing at an incredibly high level right now. There's only so much you can do. Andrew Nemhard will start on Mikhail Bridges. Mikhail struggled in this matchup in the regular season, just 12 points per game, shot 20% from three. But he shot poorly in general to start the season and two of those games happened during that stretch. Mikhail's role on the Knicks is interesting. When Brunson's on the floor, he'll run some second side action, but he mostly looks to attack off the catch and in transition. He has not shot the ball very well in this postseason, but he has hit some very important threes when Brunson is off the floor. They've been leaning into him as like a ball handler and spread pick and roll at the top of the key with Mitchell Robinson and he's been getting some looks in the mid range to drop. He shot well there 44% on 52 attempts on twos inside of 17ft in the playoffs. He's won games for the Knicks in this playoff run hitting those shots for Nemhard, just about getting contests, rear view contests and pick and roll. Obviously Turner and Bryant got to be active with their hands up in their drop coverages, but also in general and in spot up situations. Nemhard just has to get a hand up. There's been a consistent trend this year. This actually extends to OG and Josh Hart, so stand by. We'll get to that in a minute. But with Mikhail Bridges in the regular season and in the playoffs where his shooting has gone down substantially from unguarded to guarded, we've seen what happens. He elevates comically high and kicks his legs every time he gets rushed on a three. He just responds by making it like a really tough shot, right? And he's hit some of those, but he makes them tougher and his percentages go down. So all you got to do if you're NEM hard is just focus on making sure that you get a quality contest in those situations. Siakamon OG Anunoby as mentioned earlier, OG Anunoby has just been a more exaggerated off ball version of what Siakam is. There's some on ball stuff. He'll run a handful of ball screens, ISOs and post ups. You'll see about four of them per game in the postseason. He's efficient on him. He gets just over a point per possession, but it's super low volume. But OG is super aggressive off the ball. He's taken 118 shots in this postseason in transition and spot up situations. He's shooting 48% on unguarded catch and shoot jump shots. He is the quintessential off ball scoring forward as we've talked about so much this season. So siakam a lot of help and recover decisions. How well can he account for helping in the paint on other action while also making sure that he gets contests in containment on closeouts against OG Anunoby once again get the contest in this postseason. OG Anunoby drops from 48% to 24% on catch and shoot jump shots when you just contest him. Per synergy. Tyrese Haliburton on Josh Hart in theory, this is the perfect hedge and recover option, right? Josh Hart's not a movement shooter, but there are two potential options here. And remember, when I say like, when I say like movement shooting to beat hedging, all that means is Halliburton's throwing a hedge. There is a slipping Josh Hart who's wide open now. He's got to shoot, slipping out of that screen with the ball coming from his side as he's running to his side. It's just a difficult type of shot. It's very different than a pick and pop where he can just linger around the top of the key while the center is sinking way down into the paint. And it's more the pass is coming more from the front and he's got all day to look at it, right? There are two potential problems. Josh Hart happens to be shooting extremely well on open threes in the playoffs. He's 12 for 20 to be exact. That's 60%. He has been specifically torching teams by popping and pick and roll. And he has torched the Pacers this year. 22 points per game despite shooting just 17% from three in those three games. How offensive rebounding gets 2.3 offensive rebounds per game against the Pacers, 2.1 in the playoffs last year, that 2.3 numbers from the regular season this year driving closeouts as well. That patented transition push where he'll just get his shoulder into your body and finish at the rim. But this matchup is different. As we mentioned in popping against Porzingis, Halliburton has been very good in this playoff run up, hedging and recovering hands up where like as he throws the hedge over here, he gets out with his hands up to force you to throw the pass over the top of his hands. It gives him longer time to recover and then he just needs to get a hand up and similarly, Josh Hart has dropped in this postseason from 60% to 31% on catch and shoot jump shots when he's just contested. I'm less worried about the shooting with Josh Hart in the Halliburton matchup than just the athletic force. We talked about this earlier with Aaron Neesmith. If he would have ended up being guarded by Brunson, he could have done a ton of damage with that sort of thing. Josh Hart could do a lot of damage to Tyrese Halliburton in this series on the glass, attacking downhill off of closeouts and in transition. So let's keep an eye on that Miles Turner on Cat as aforementioned, the funner version of this matchup where Turner's a better defender and Cat's a better offensive player. Cat torched the pacers this year, 30 points and 12 assists per game, 57% from the field, 47% from three, 89% from the foul line. He did a lot of damage as a shooter, picking and popping, trailing threes in transition, just spacing the floor on the weak side. But he did also do a lot of damage just going one on one at Miles Turner and Thomas Bryant. He had one of his best dunks this year, driving out of the left corner against Thomas Bryant. He's able to drop multiple fouls on Miles Turner by either beating him cleanly off the dribble or by like faking and dislodging him and then getting like stepping through to draw some contact. As a group, the Pacers will need to be much better. Turner's got to do better on an island and they've got to rotate better to make sure that he doesn't get the types of quality threes that he was getting in all of the Knicks actions during the regular season. In many ways, Cat is the key to the series on both ends of the floor. He was the guy who killed the Pacers defense all season. He was also the guy who will be their breaking point when the Pacers are trying to score. He could be the thing that drives success and failure on either end, so how well he performs will be a big swing factor in this series. Keys for the Pacers Ball pressure to wear and tear the Knicks down in hopes of having that fatigue benefit them later in the series. Sharp closeouts again Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Mikhail Bridges all plummet as shooters when they're contested and then rotating to Towns to prevent him from getting those clean three three point shot looks. The benches between these two teams are very different. All five Knick starters play over 35 minutes per game in the postseason. McHale and OG average over 40 minutes per game. There is not a single Pacer who has averaged over 35 minutes per game in this postseason. They have a lot of weapons. TJ McConnell is one of the best backup guards in basketball. Relentless downhill attack beats people off the dribble cleanly. More than you'll see than you'll see. Most backup guards in the league with a lot of short range scoring, Excellent passing per 36 minutes in this postseason run 19.7 rebounds and 10 assists on 55% true shooting. Ben Matheran has actually been their most hot, their highest scoring rate player per 36 minutes. He's scoring 23 points per game on 58% true shooting. That's higher than anyone else on the Pacers right now. It's a lot of downhill athleticism, a lot of drawing fouls, getting into the paint using using his physical tools. Obi Toppin's a great fit in the system as an athletic transition player and as a cutter. Provides some of that weak side scoring forward work that we always talk about. Ben Shepard will get some 3 and D minutes. Thomas Bryant will play center when Miles Turner's off. They're super deep for the Knicks. The only two guys who really play a substantial role for them off the bench are Deuce McBride, who's not shooting super well inside the arc but is shooting 40% from three in the playoffs. I think he's a good player. And then Mitchell Robinson, who as a bench big and as a two guy who will play like two big looks alongside Cat. Just a dominant defender and rebounder on both ends of the floor. Obviously no question here that overall depth favors Indiana and that bench scoring favors Indiana. My prediction, As I mentioned earlier, I view this series as roughly a coin flip. I think the Pacers are slightly better, but I think the Knicks have home court advantage and that matters. Although it's worth mentioning at least before we move on, the Pacers and the Knicks have both been excellent on the road in these playoffs. The Knicks are 5 and 1 on the road and the Pacers are 4 and 1. What actually solidified my pick was game one of the Buck series and game one of the Cav series. Two games that the Pacers took double digit leads in the first quarter. The first one you could explain away by just saying it's the Bucks. They were a mediocre team. Whatever, right? The Cavs are not even without Darius Garland. They're not bad. They won 64 games this year. They just looked completely caught off guard by Indiana's offense cut to shreds to start that game, leaving constant easy openings. The Pacers were relentless attacking them. They got punched in the face in that way. It reminded me of the warriors in their heyday. They played just such a different style that most teams, there's an adjustment period, a period where you could drop a game or two before you even really find your bearings and kind of figure out how you're supposed to guard this team. So I think the Pacers are high risk to steal game one. With that being the case, I think they'd win game three and four at home and then close the series off in six. I think they catch the Knicks off guard, punch them in the mouth and then the Knicks are constantly trying to make up ground throughout the series. But then they lose home court and then wear and tear plays a role towards the tail end of the series because of Pacers depth. I think that's how the Pacers end up getting this thing done in six games. But this is going to be incredible and I absolutely think the Knicks can win. Predictions don't mean I think the other team sucks, it just means I think it's less likely. As always, there's a way for the Knicks to win this series. Here's what I think it would look like. It starts with Mikhail Bridges doing a great job on Tyrese Halliburton playing him into some of those passive stretches that we talked about from the Cavs series. It extends to Mikhail OG and Josh shooting better on spot up threes than Indy's role players. And it ends with close games where Jalen Brunson outplays Tyrese Halliburton down the stretch and swings the series back towards New York. It absolutely can happen. I just think the Pacers are a slightly better team that are slightly more likely to get the job done. All right guys, as always, I appreciate you guys for supporting the show. That is all we have for today. We will be going with Colin after the game. We will have our live show about an hour after I finish after the game finishes so I can finish recording with Colin first. Just keep just pay attention to my Twitter feed and I'll tweet out the link when we actually go live playing on about that'll be around that like 4pm our Pacific Standard Time when we end up going live and then we'll have our usual playback at that point. Again, I appreciate you guys and I will see you next time. What's up guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting hoops tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it. The volume AI is redefining what's possible for your business. With more unique challenges to solve and higher stakes than ever, Microsoft helps you stay ahead. Our trustworthy AI tools and guidance can empower leaders like you to drive greater impact. 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Colin (30:28)

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Jason (30:43)

Of course.

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