← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Hoops Tonight - Series Preview: Knicks-Pacers Eastern Conference Finals Preview + Prediction
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Jason
Volume the NBA 82 game grind is done and now the real fun begins. The NBA Playoffs are here and it's time for all the high stakes drama, clutch moments and jaw dropping plays. I can't wait. If you're looking to make the playoffs Even more exciting, DraftKings sportsbook has you covered as an official sports betting partner of the NBA. From the play in games all the way through to the finals, now's the time to back your favorite players and teams as they chase glory. All season long, DraftKings has been the go to spot for NBA player props and that does not stop now. Want to make your playoff experience even more intense? Try placing a bet on your favorite player's performance. Will they drop 30 points? 40 or more? It's your call. Ready to place your first bet? Download the DraftKings sportsbook app. Now. Lock in your bets. Let's make this playoff run unforgettable. Here's something special for first timers. New DraftKings customers bet $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. Instantly make it a playoff run to remember with DraftKings. Download the DraftKings sportsbook app and use code HOOPS. That's H O O P S. That's code hoops for new customers to get $200 in bonus bets. When you bet just five bucks only on DraftKings, the crown is yours. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in New York, call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY to 467-369 in Connecticut. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Please play responsibly on behalf of Boot Hill Casino and Resort in Kansas. 21 plus. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void. In Ontario, new customers only. Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKNG Co Audio. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Sunday everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great weekend. As promised, we're getting to our Eastern Conference Finals preview today between the New York Knicks and the Indiana Pacers, which should be a very entertaining series. Two very different teams than we expected to see at this point in time, but two teams that are playing great basketball led by two elite guards. It's going to be super fascinating. We're going to get into it like we usually do from a bunch of different angles. We'll talk about the season series we'll talk about the gambling odds on DraftKings. We'll talk about the Pacers with the ball, the Knicks with the ball. We'll talk a little bit about the respective bench units and then we will get to our prediction. You guys know the drill before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on twitter@_jasonlt so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating in a review. On that front, Jackson's doing great work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. Make sure you guys follow us there. And last but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube comments so we can get to them to our mailbags in our mailbags throughout the remainder of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So Season Series The Knicks won 2 to 1. Two of the games took place in the first couple weeks of the season. That's the only the only game where like everyone actually played was in October. So not too much to take away there. But the metrics that came out of those three games. The Knicks logged a 126 offensive rating in the three games. The Pacers logged a 115 offensive rating in the three games. The Knicks also dominated the glass. They grabbed 53.6% of available rebounds and they grabbed over 30% of their own misses in this matchup in the regular season. Our our odds Again they are provided by our partner DraftKings. The Knicks are currently a -1.40 favorite to win the series. I think that's a good betting opportunity on the Indiana side. I view this as very much a coin flip series and I think the Pacers are a slightly better team. But I think the Knicks have home court advantage and that that obviously matters. So that to me makes it a coin flip and in a coin flip to get Indy at plus one. 20 is obviously the better price for for me. Let's start with the Pacers on the ball. So matchups Mikhail Bridges will guard Tyrese Haliburton. He did a good job there. In the regular season. Tyrese averaged 17 and nine in the three games on 44% from the field, 26% from three. But again, it's worth mentioning like we did in the Friday night show, Tyrese is just playing at a substantially higher level now than he did when these games took place. But McHale does have the tools for it. He has a good motor. He navigates screens well. He's got the length to pressure from behind. He can peel switch. And I think we will see some switching, especially in Halliburton Siakam actions in this series. I'd also consider if I was Tom Thibodeau and Mikhail Bridges trying to deny Tyrese Haliburton the ball. The Cavs did a lot of this in their second round series and actually had some success playing Halliburton into some passive stretches just by denying him the ball. Like ball goes in the basket. Instead of letting him inbound, just stand in front of Tyrese Haliburton and maybe he'll just kind of let someone else take it and just kind of. It just kind of plays him into passivity. So that's something that I would potentially consider if I was Tom Thibodeau. They have Jalen Brunson, guard Andrew Neard, which I think is fascinating. Right? The what you would think is you put him on a guy like Aaron Ne Smith, but I think this is the right call to move Brunson over to Nemhard. N Smith is playing super well as of late and he brings a ton of athletic force to the position. So it actually makes sense to have Josh Hart, a better athlete, try to match Aaron Neesmith's athletic force. Now, as far as Brunson on Nemhard, there will still be some issues there. Indiana will find ways to attack Brunson there. Nemhard can run action on the ball that will force Brunson to either pursue through screens or to switch onto Biggs. Nemhard will also run inverted action as the screener. Well, he'll screen for Halliburton or he'll screen for Siakam. And in those situations, I expect Brunson to hedge and recover. And so in those gaps, like Nemhard screens for, let's say Siakam and Brunson doesn't want to switch on to Siakam. He'll throw the hedge. Nemhard slips out of it. There's an opening there for Nemhardt to catch and try to look to attack. And so that's a big way that I think we'll see Nemhard look to attack Brunson. I emphasize differences in the Friday night show, if you guys remember, between what the Celtics Knicks matchup looked like and what the Pacers Knicks matchup looked like. This is one of those ways, like Brunson defended really well in that Celtics series, but it was different. There's a lot of like one on one defense against Brunson or, excuse me, against Jalen Brown and against Jason Tatum. They weren't really posting him so much as they were isoing him and they were kind of like settling for tough contested jump shots over the top of Brunson. This is going to be more of a test of speed. It's going to be a situation where he's going to need to fly around out of those hedges to get back into rotation as Nemhard looks to attack. Obviously Brunson defended well against Boston, but this is a different matchup. How well Brunson defends will play a big role. Josh Hart on Aaron Neesmith Aaron N.E. smith's just a better player than he was last year. He's shooting 52% on unguarded catch and shoot threes in the playoffs, so you can't leave them open. He's shooting 46% on guarded catch and shoot jump shots in the playoffs, so if you get there in time it might not even matter. And he's shooting 54% on twos when he drives closeouts, including 7 for 12 on mid range jump shots. He's putting the ball on the floor against the closeout and snatch back dribble, pull up in the mid range, spin over his right shoulder, pull up in the mid range like he's got some really high level shot making that he's bringing to the table at this point. He's averaging 15 points per game in the playoffs. He had a 23 point game against the Cavs. There's real volume scoring there. He's also the best offensive rebounder on the team. He gets 1.6 offensive rebounds in this postseason per game. That's more than Miles Turner, more than anybody else on the team. He relentlessly slashes and crashes and all that kind of stuff because he's a ball pressure guy who wants to pick up Brunson full court anyway. So he's going to end up around the basket anywhere anyway trying to deny him catches, trying to pick him up. So all that crashing and slashing just kind of fits into what his role is on the defensive end anyway. So I think between the volume scoring and the offensive rebounding and all that athletic force, it makes sense to have Josh Hart be the guy who's taken those hits. Especially with Brunson having to pick up a lot of like we just talked about a lot of that full court pressure. You don't want to have him also take wear and tear trying to deal with Aaron Neesmith just being a pain in the ass athlete. If you don't believe that's an issue, ask Donovan Mitchell, who just had to do in the last round and at one point got slammed into the ground off of a dunk on an offensive rebound when he tried to match up with Aaron Neesmith crashing down the lane on a free throw. OJ Anobi on Pascal Siakam Siakam attacked OG one on one and attempted a shot just twice this season. Couple pretty tough contested pull up that he made and then a more open pull up off of a move where he got good separation so he's two for two. But again I don't think we'll see a ton of that outside of late clock situations and the Pacers are not using Siakam a ton on the ball in these playoffs. Regardless, he's logged 75 shot attempts in spot up situations in transition and slipping out of ball screens, but only 44 shot attempts in post ups, isos and ball in ball screens as the handler. So like it's not as exaggerated as as it is with OG on offense because OG similarly has been way more aggressive off ball than he's been on ball. But even with Siakam who's a better on ball player, he's doing most of his work like 2/3 of his work off the ball. The transition sequences and spot ups are self explanatory. He's knocking down catch and shoot threes, driving closeouts, just pushing the ball in transition with his athleticism. But the stuff like popping out of pick and roll or post op in ISO situations, that stuff is interesting. Siakam got a lot of pick and pop looks in the first two rounds in large part because the Bucks and Cavs are guarding him with bigs. There was some switching but there were a lot of sequences where he was open on picking pops this series. If Mikhail Bridges is on Tyrese Halliburton and OG an Adobe's on Siakam, they're switching that ball screen. So he's not going to get as many pick and pop threes as he did in that second round series. He might still get some in some specific screening actions. I just don't expect it to be as big of a factor as it was in earlier rounds. So it will come down to Siakam attacking who one on one in ISO and post up situations. Most likely not against Brunson because again as we look in the at any of the previous matchups between these teams, they just hedge and recover with him and try to keep him off Siakam at all costs. But throughout this season and last year in the second round, the favorite matchup for Siakam against the Knicks has been Josh Hart. If you guys remember this last year in the postseason, Siakam just torched him over and over and over again. Especially after OG Anunoby went down towards the tail end of the series. They were just straight up double teaming those Siakam post ups on Josh Hart. It was a problem even this year in the regular season. The players Hiakam looked to attack most in switches with OG Anunoby available with Mikhail Bridges on the team, he wanted to go after Josh Hart. That's his favorite matchup there. As for OGN and Obi's job specifically in this matchup with Siakam, outside of the few times that we'll see him guard Siakam one on one, it's just helping recover situations, right? A lot of situations where he's going to be digging down, diving at the basketball, but also getting out to Siakam did a great job of that in the Celtics series. He's arguably the Knicks best defender. I expect him to be great again in this series. Carl Anthony Towns and Miles Turner this matchup is interesting on both ends of the floor because when Miles Turner's on offense, he's obviously not as good offensively as Cat, but Cat's not as good defensively as he is. So it's like on that end of the floor they're both like lesser versions of themselves. But then when the Knicks are on offense, Cat's obviously substantially better, but Miles is substantially better. So it's a different challenge there. But again, when the Pacers have the ball, this is where I have the most concern for the Knicks defense in this matchup. Miles Turner is doing a ton of damage as an off ball scorer in these playoffs, shooting 45% from three on four attempts per game. He'll take him spotting up, he'll take him popping, he'll roll to the elbows and shoot little short jump shots. He's doing a ton of work there. So Cat's job in those help and recover situations will be to whether it's in a drop coverage or it's helping off of an action somewhere else on the floor to just make sure he toes that line between being in there to help but also making sure he gets out to contest Miles Turner. The Pacers are very good at relentlessly hunting those kinds of reads and so Cat Cat is going to be the primary entry point that the Pacers look to attack now, before we go to the Knicks on offense, I want to high re highlight Tyrese Halliburton for a minute. He's obviously the engine that makes this offense go right with his kick ahead passes, the pace he plays within the half court, the relentless advantage hunting all that stuff. But there will be in all likelihood a few close games in this series. And in those moments, Halliburton is going to be competing with a player in Brunson who has been far and away the best clutch player in the in the NBA in this postseason. Brunson has scored 43 clutch points in these playoffs. No other player in the NBA scored more than 26. Now to be clear, Halliburton has had a great clutch postseason. 220 points on 15 shots. Two game winners each that ended one that ended a series and one that stole game two on the road in Cleveland. And the Pacers are actually yet to lose a clutch game in this postseason thanks to two last minute seven point comebacks, both caps by Halliburton. Game winners. But the point is we're going to see these slowdown showdowns switch hunting matchup, attacking isolation contests between Brunson and Halliburton and which direction those games go could potentially swing the series. So just something to keep an eye on.
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Colin
All right.
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Jason
The key for the Knicks defense before we move on defensive communication and effort in rotation between the relentless transition pushes that Indiana's famous for and accounting for. Turner spacing off of Cat and Siakam, drawing double teams on guys like Josh Hart in the post or whoever else it might be, or if it's Brunson hedging and recovering and. And Nemhard getting clean catches. Whatever it is, the Knicks will likely spend most of the series in man down situations, meaning someone for Indiana will be open and the Knicks will have to rotate to that guy. OG McHale and Josh Hart are all fantastic rotators when they are locked in. But as many Knicks fans will tell you, they can also have bad nights. So that's something to keep an eye on. If they have one too many of those bad nights, it could cost them the series. All right, let's move to New York on offense. I expect Aaron Eastmith to start on Jalen Brunson. We have a pretty solid sample size now of Nemhard doing a good job on Brunson, but Brunson just being a bit too strong for nem. Hard and very capable of shooting over the top. So. And also just based on what happened last in their final regular season matchup in February, this year. Carlisle started with Niecemith on on Brunson, so I think we'll see Neesmith on there. Brunson has had success against Neesmith, but it just looks harder. He's bigger and stronger, can't bump him as easily. It's harder for him to shoot over the top. I think that makes the most sense. Ball pressure is going to be the key here. The Pacers will likely attempt to pick up Jalen Brunson full court all series, and Brunson's good at handling pressure, but there's a wear and tear factor. It could lead to fatigue for Brunson as games progress or as the series progresses. So the Knicks could look to mitigate this by having someone else bring the ball up the floor, right? Have Josh Hart bring it up, have Mikhail Bridges bring it up, but the Pacers will pressure that guy too. They ball pressure everyone full court, so it's just on the Knicks to avoid getting sped up, to avoid losing control of the game. And those like defense to transition sequences because they turn the ball over, take bad shots against ball pressure. That is going to be a big swing factor in this series. As for Neesmith and Nemhard, the job is just stay attached and make him work in the regular season in pick and roll. The Pacers used at the level coverages with both Turner and Bryant, meaning meeting Brunson before he can come around and turn the corner. That actually made Brunson more of a score and his scoring totals were lower in this matchup. In the regular season, he averaged about 20 points per game efficiently, but only about 20 points per game. They made him get rid of the ball more, but there's two edges to that sword. Cat lit up the Pacers this year in that Pacer in that coverage. If you're bringing two on the ball to attend to Brunson, there are going to be advantages beneath like on the pop or if they rotate to the pop on the weak side. Like that's where the the Knicks did a lot of damage to Indiana this year. Again, the job though, dealing with Brunson in those ball screens. It's a bracket, so whether it's Miles Turner or it's Thomas Bryant, they got to be active up at the level of the screen and then Nemhard and Neesmith just have to chase over the top. Stay attached right in ISO situations and again, we know Brunson will ISO those guys straight up dozens of times in this series. Slide your feet, take contact in the chest, attack his base before he goes up, get a good contest live with the results. Hope he wears down. But to be clear, Jalen Brunson is just playing at an incredibly high level right now. There's only so much you can do. Andrew Nemhard will start on Mikhail Bridges. Mikhail struggled in this matchup in the regular season, just 12 points per game, shot 20% from three. But he shot poorly in general to start the season and two of those games happened during that stretch. Mikhail's role on the Knicks is interesting. When Brunson's on the floor, he'll run some second side action, but he mostly looks to attack off the catch and in transition. He has not shot the ball very well in this postseason, but he has hit some very important threes when Brunson is off the floor. They've been leaning into him as like a ball handler and spread pick and roll at the top of the key with Mitchell Robinson and he's been getting some looks in the mid range to drop. He shot well there 44% on 52 attempts on twos inside of 17ft in the playoffs. He's won games for the Knicks in this playoff run hitting those shots for Nemhard, just about getting contests, rear view contests and pick and roll. Obviously Turner and Bryant got to be active with their hands up in their drop coverages, but also in general and in spot up situations. Nemhard just has to get a hand up. There's been a consistent trend this year. This actually extends to OG and Josh Hart, so stand by. We'll get to that in a minute. But with Mikhail Bridges in the regular season and in the playoffs where his shooting has gone down substantially from unguarded to guarded, we've seen what happens. He elevates comically high and kicks his legs every time he gets rushed on a three. He just responds by making it like a really tough shot, right? And he's hit some of those, but he makes them tougher and his percentages go down. So all you got to do if you're NEM hard is just focus on making sure that you get a quality contest in those situations. Siakamon OG Anunoby as mentioned earlier, OG Anunoby has just been a more exaggerated off ball version of what Siakam is. There's some on ball stuff. He'll run a handful of ball screens, ISOs and post ups. You'll see about four of them per game in the postseason. He's efficient on him. He gets just over a point per possession, but it's super low volume. But OG is super aggressive off the ball. He's taken 118 shots in this postseason in transition and spot up situations. He's shooting 48% on unguarded catch and shoot jump shots. He is the quintessential off ball scoring forward as we've talked about so much this season. So siakam a lot of help and recover decisions. How well can he account for helping in the paint on other action while also making sure that he gets contests in containment on closeouts against OG Anunoby once again get the contest in this postseason. OG Anunoby drops from 48% to 24% on catch and shoot jump shots when you just contest him. Per synergy. Tyrese Haliburton on Josh Hart in theory, this is the perfect hedge and recover option, right? Josh Hart's not a movement shooter, but there are two potential options here. And remember, when I say like, when I say like movement shooting to beat hedging, all that means is Halliburton's throwing a hedge. There is a slipping Josh Hart who's wide open now. He's got to shoot, slipping out of that screen with the ball coming from his side as he's running to his side. It's just a difficult type of shot. It's very different than a pick and pop where he can just linger around the top of the key while the center is sinking way down into the paint. And it's more the pass is coming more from the front and he's got all day to look at it, right? There are two potential problems. Josh Hart happens to be shooting extremely well on open threes in the playoffs. He's 12 for 20 to be exact. That's 60%. He has been specifically torching teams by popping and pick and roll. And he has torched the Pacers this year. 22 points per game despite shooting just 17% from three in those three games. How offensive rebounding gets 2.3 offensive rebounds per game against the Pacers, 2.1 in the playoffs last year, that 2.3 numbers from the regular season this year driving closeouts as well. That patented transition push where he'll just get his shoulder into your body and finish at the rim. But this matchup is different. As we mentioned in popping against Porzingis, Halliburton has been very good in this playoff run up, hedging and recovering hands up where like as he throws the hedge over here, he gets out with his hands up to force you to throw the pass over the top of his hands. It gives him longer time to recover and then he just needs to get a hand up and similarly, Josh Hart has dropped in this postseason from 60% to 31% on catch and shoot jump shots when he's just contested. I'm less worried about the shooting with Josh Hart in the Halliburton matchup than just the athletic force. We talked about this earlier with Aaron Neesmith. If he would have ended up being guarded by Brunson, he could have done a ton of damage with that sort of thing. Josh Hart could do a lot of damage to Tyrese Halliburton in this series on the glass, attacking downhill off of closeouts and in transition. So let's keep an eye on that Miles Turner on Cat as aforementioned, the funner version of this matchup where Turner's a better defender and Cat's a better offensive player. Cat torched the pacers this year, 30 points and 12 assists per game, 57% from the field, 47% from three, 89% from the foul line. He did a lot of damage as a shooter, picking and popping, trailing threes in transition, just spacing the floor on the weak side. But he did also do a lot of damage just going one on one at Miles Turner and Thomas Bryant. He had one of his best dunks this year, driving out of the left corner against Thomas Bryant. He's able to drop multiple fouls on Miles Turner by either beating him cleanly off the dribble or by like faking and dislodging him and then getting like stepping through to draw some contact. As a group, the Pacers will need to be much better. Turner's got to do better on an island and they've got to rotate better to make sure that he doesn't get the types of quality threes that he was getting in all of the Knicks actions during the regular season. In many ways, Cat is the key to the series on both ends of the floor. He was the guy who killed the Pacers defense all season. He was also the guy who will be their breaking point when the Pacers are trying to score. He could be the thing that drives success and failure on either end, so how well he performs will be a big swing factor in this series. Keys for the Pacers Ball pressure to wear and tear the Knicks down in hopes of having that fatigue benefit them later in the series. Sharp closeouts again Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Mikhail Bridges all plummet as shooters when they're contested and then rotating to Towns to prevent him from getting those clean three three point shot looks. The benches between these two teams are very different. All five Knick starters play over 35 minutes per game in the postseason. McHale and OG average over 40 minutes per game. There is not a single Pacer who has averaged over 35 minutes per game in this postseason. They have a lot of weapons. TJ McConnell is one of the best backup guards in basketball. Relentless downhill attack beats people off the dribble cleanly. More than you'll see than you'll see. Most backup guards in the league with a lot of short range scoring, Excellent passing per 36 minutes in this postseason run 19.7 rebounds and 10 assists on 55% true shooting. Ben Matheran has actually been their most hot, their highest scoring rate player per 36 minutes. He's scoring 23 points per game on 58% true shooting. That's higher than anyone else on the Pacers right now. It's a lot of downhill athleticism, a lot of drawing fouls, getting into the paint using using his physical tools. Obi Toppin's a great fit in the system as an athletic transition player and as a cutter. Provides some of that weak side scoring forward work that we always talk about. Ben Shepard will get some 3 and D minutes. Thomas Bryant will play center when Miles Turner's off. They're super deep for the Knicks. The only two guys who really play a substantial role for them off the bench are Deuce McBride, who's not shooting super well inside the arc but is shooting 40% from three in the playoffs. I think he's a good player. And then Mitchell Robinson, who as a bench big and as a two guy who will play like two big looks alongside Cat. Just a dominant defender and rebounder on both ends of the floor. Obviously no question here that overall depth favors Indiana and that bench scoring favors Indiana. My prediction, As I mentioned earlier, I view this series as roughly a coin flip. I think the Pacers are slightly better, but I think the Knicks have home court advantage and that matters. Although it's worth mentioning at least before we move on, the Pacers and the Knicks have both been excellent on the road in these playoffs. The Knicks are 5 and 1 on the road and the Pacers are 4 and 1. What actually solidified my pick was game one of the Buck series and game one of the Cav series. Two games that the Pacers took double digit leads in the first quarter. The first one you could explain away by just saying it's the Bucks. They were a mediocre team. Whatever, right? The Cavs are not even without Darius Garland. They're not bad. They won 64 games this year. They just looked completely caught off guard by Indiana's offense cut to shreds to start that game, leaving constant easy openings. The Pacers were relentless attacking them. They got punched in the face in that way. It reminded me of the warriors in their heyday. They played just such a different style that most teams, there's an adjustment period, a period where you could drop a game or two before you even really find your bearings and kind of figure out how you're supposed to guard this team. So I think the Pacers are high risk to steal game one. With that being the case, I think they'd win game three and four at home and then close the series off in six. I think they catch the Knicks off guard, punch them in the mouth and then the Knicks are constantly trying to make up ground throughout the series. But then they lose home court and then wear and tear plays a role towards the tail end of the series because of Pacers depth. I think that's how the Pacers end up getting this thing done in six games. But this is going to be incredible and I absolutely think the Knicks can win. Predictions don't mean I think the other team sucks, it just means I think it's less likely. As always, there's a way for the Knicks to win this series. Here's what I think it would look like. It starts with Mikhail Bridges doing a great job on Tyrese Halliburton playing him into some of those passive stretches that we talked about from the Cavs series. It extends to Mikhail OG and Josh shooting better on spot up threes than Indy's role players. And it ends with close games where Jalen Brunson outplays Tyrese Halliburton down the stretch and swings the series back towards New York. It absolutely can happen. I just think the Pacers are a slightly better team that are slightly more likely to get the job done. All right guys, as always, I appreciate you guys for supporting the show. That is all we have for today. We will be going with Colin after the game. We will have our live show about an hour after I finish after the game finishes so I can finish recording with Colin first. Just keep just pay attention to my Twitter feed and I'll tweet out the link when we actually go live playing on about that'll be around that like 4pm our Pacific Standard Time when we end up going live and then we'll have our usual playback at that point. Again, I appreciate you guys and I will see you next time. What's up guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting hoops tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it. The volume AI is redefining what's possible for your business. With more unique challenges to solve and higher stakes than ever, Microsoft helps you stay ahead. Our trustworthy AI tools and guidance can empower leaders like you to drive greater impact. 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Jason
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Colin
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Colin
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Jason
Of course.
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