
Loading summary
Jason
You're listening to an iHeart podcast. AI is redefining what's possible for your business. With more unique challenges to solve and higher stakes than ever, Microsoft helps you stay ahead. Our trustworthy AI tools and guidance can empower leaders like you to drive greater impact. And with Azure's simplified platform management, we're helping businesses go further and faster by unlocking up to 150% improved output. Whatever challenges come next, let Microsoft help you keep pushing forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com challengers T.
T-Mobile Ad
Mobile stats are as impressive as your favorite athlete's highlight reel, because T Mobile helps keep you connected from the heart of Portland to right where you are on America's largest 5G network switch. Now keep your phone and T Mobile will pay it off at the $800 per line via prepaid card. Visit your local T Mobile location or learn more@t mobile.com keepandswitch up to 4 lines of a virtual prepaid card. Allow 15 days qualifying unlocked device, credit service support in 90 plus days device ineligible carrier and timely redemption required. Card has no cash access and expires in six months.
Jason
The Volume the NBA Finals are almost here and every play could be the one that changes everything. This is the NBA playoffs, where heroes rise, legacies are built and the action never lets up. And with DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA, you don't just watch the madness, you live it back. Your favorite team ride with your clutch time killer bet on the buzzer beaters, the breakout performances, the game winning threes from player props to same game parlays, this is how you take your fandom to the next level. The New York Knicks, after beating the Celtics, are up to plus360 as the second best odds to win the title. Surprisingly, the pacers back at plus 600 because my initial thought on that series is I want to pick the Pacers. But some interesting championship odds right now. New to the game? No Sweat. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Bet just $5 and if your bet wins, you'll score $300 in bonus bets. It's that easy. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook App and use code HOOPS. That's code HOOPS H O O P S for new customers to get $300 in bonus bets. If your bet wins when you bet just five bucks only on DraftKings, the crown is yours. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in New York, call 877-8-HOPENY or text hopeny to 467-369 in Connecticut help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas 21 +. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. Bet must win to receive reward. Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKNG Co Audio. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Voluum. Happy Monday everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great start to your week. Today we're are doing our Western Conference Finals preview between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves. I went back and forth on this series a half dozen times since last night, but I did find an answer I will be revealing at the tail end of the show. Again, we're going to go through our usual routine. We'll go through the season series, we'll talk about some of the metrics, we'll talk about the gambling odds, and then we'll focus on Minnesota on offense, then Oklahoma City on offense, talk a little bit about their benchmark and then we'll get to our prediction. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on twitter@_jasonlt so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating in a review on that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social media feeds, Twitter, Instagram, Facebook. Make sure you guys follow us there. And last but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions so we can get to them throughout the remainder of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So two two season series Little weird. There was a game towards the end of the year where the end of the bench guys with like Nikhil Alexander, Walker and Nas Reed managed to come back from down like 14 with three minutes left to send a game to overtime that ultimately Minnesota won. And there was some interesting stuff in that overtime period where they Minnesota was able to get some big offensive rebounds and have some successful stretches of defense versus Oklahoma City. If you guys remember, Anthony Edwards had a huge block on Shay Gil, just Alexander right at the rim, got up in his face and was flexing on him. But that was a game that Oklahoma City had taken control of until the final minutes and it was like a Rob Dillingham Group with like Terence Shannon that actually brought them back into it. So two two, but kind of a weird one. Julius Randall only played in one of the games. Dante DiVincenzo only played in one of the games. Rudy Gobert only played in one of the games. Chet Holmgren only played in two of the games. Alex Caruso only played in two of the games. So as is always the case, I'm more looking into those games for just opportunities to see what it looks like when certain guys guard each other. Certain stretches of the games where you see something that might be translatable. Not too much to take away. The metrics were just about as close as it gets. Minnesota logged at 114.7 offensive rating. Oklahoma City log day 114.6 offensive rating. Rebounding was a big advantage towards Minnesota. They grabbed 53.2% of available rebounds, including 31.5% of their own misses. So definitely an on the glass advantage for Minnesota There for odds Again, all of our odds are provided by our partner draft draftkings. Oklahoma City is a -3.30 favorite. This I flat out don't understand. Uh, but I'm also not surprised. Obviously Oklahoma City puts up crazy metrics that influence the algorithm that these sports book sportsbooks use. So like Denver's three wins in the SE at conference semis were by 23 points combined. Why? Because they're a veteran team. They're not going to pound you into the dirt. Right. Oklahoma City had a 43 point win and a 32 point win in the series because they're a bunch of dudes in their early 20s that are never going to stop playing until the until the buzzer sounds and the veterans are going to let go of the rope, so to speak. So that's going to influence a lot of the way that these odds will come out. I think this is a pretty interesting betting opportunity on the Minnesota side of things. In terms of value, I think Oklahoma City should be a favorite, substantial favorite like somewhere in that like minus 1. 50 to minus 200 range. But you can get Minnesota right now to win the series at +2.65. I think that's a good price for a team that absolutely has a good chance to win this series, even though we can all agree Oklahoma City should be favored. So let's start with Minnesota on offense. Matchups. We'll see Lou Dort start on Anthony Edwards. Oklahoma City did a great job on it in the regular season. They held him to 22 points per game on 36% from the field in 32% from three. They forced him into 3.5 turnovers per game, which was above his season average. It is a team job though. Kayson, Wallace and Alex Caruso, we'll both see time in this matchup. Alex in particular defended Ant really well in the couple of games he played in. The Thunder did a ton of double teaming and like gapping in driving lanes against Ant and they were able to pretty consistently rotate out of it without giving up more than like a mildly contested catch and shoot. 3. Lou Dort Super Physical on Ant. He's got that unique combination of like the strength to hold up against Ant's power, but also the quickness to beat him to spots. He also did a good amount of denying, especially in their first game that they played this year where he was just like getting physical with him off ball, just kind of two hands on his jersey, face guarding. And that played Ant into some passive stretches. Interesting stat. Ant took four fewer shots per game in this matchup than he did in his regular. With his like regular season average, he averaged around 20 shots per game. He ended up taking about 16 shots per game, specifically against Oklahoma City. Ant's got a really tough job in this series. On the one hand, Minnesota's clear advantage on offense is at the power forward spot. Nas Reed scored 19 or more points in all four games against Oklahoma City this year. I think he had a 27 point game as well. Julius Randle only played once and struggled, but he also will have substantial size advantages and he's just playing at a much higher level than he was when he played against Oklahoma City way back in. I think it was like December in the game that he actually played in. So I think Ant's gonna need to on one hand, avoid forcing the issue, play in the flow, keep it moving, make sure his forwards get their touches. But I also think this series will inevitably degrade into ugly half court shot making contests between him and Shay. And so for stretches he'll need to be aggressive and so he'll need to find ways to maintain his rhythm and apply a certain amount of aggression no matter what. But he also has to read the room and be like, this is a team that's got a million dudes who can defend guards and not a lot of guys who can defend forwards. So that's going to be his job to make sure as the point guard or as the on ball guard getting a lot of opportunities for his bigs. And one of the things we've talked about a lot over the course of this playoff run is I kind of like Ant playing more as an off the catch, old school two guard anyway and so I want to see Ant be aggressive, but I think it's a good opportunity for him to be aggressive off of those post touches. For guys like Nas and for Julius, this is the next challenge in Ant's journey as a basketball player. I thought Golden State was probably the second best defense Ants ever faced just because last year's Mavs team had a combination of a really strong on ball defender and Derek Jones Jr. But also RIM protection with in terms of like real vertical size, which as good as Draymond Green is, and he's arguably the best defender of this era, I wouldn't necessarily count him as like a, you know, vertical, really staunch rim protector if that makes sense and and passed that test and his last three wins against Golden State he averaged 29 points, five rebounds and seven assists on 50% from the field and 47% from three. But this Oklahoma City defense is going to present kind of the best of both of those teams. It's going to be a lot of the depth of speed and on ball defense that Golden State presents and I'd argue just better versions of those guys, but also the rim protection that Dallas had. The big difference is just the overall defensive playmaking and IQ of guys like Draymond and and Jimmy Butler. Like that's going to be less of a factor here. But I think just in terms of just pure on paper defensive talent, OKC's got a lot of stuff to match up with him. So I'm just really curious to see how Ant particularly handles the challenge. And as far as Dort goes and his job, you literally couldn't conceptualize a better physical build for a player to contend with. Ant strong enough to hold his ground, quick enough to beat him to spots J Dub on Julius Randle Again, Julius did not play in three of the four matchups this year, but in the one matchup against Oklahoma City, he did not play well. He's 11 points, four turnovers. J Dub bothered him with strength by beating him to spots and had the length to kind of poke at the ball every time Julius Randle exposed it. I trimmed a clip and posted it on Twitter this morning of just an example of Julius trying to go through J Dub and not having any success because of his ability to attack the basketball. But again, Julius is playing at a much higher level now than he was back when that game took place. Julius is going to have substantially better physical advantages than Ant throughout this series and so they're going to need him to be great with both Julius and Nas. One of the things I want to keep an eye on in this series, I was actually talking with Jackson before we started recording. This was one of the big swing factors for me. I can't get out of my head the problem that Denver had just simply getting the ball to Nicola Jokic in Game seven when Alex Caruso started denying and fronting. And this is going to be a series where I think Minnesota is going to need to get the ball to Nas and they're going to need to get the ball to Julius and I think we could see a lot of that similar type of J Dub and Alex Caruso post fronting, three quarter fronting, full on denial. Just doing everything they can to prevent those post catches and to force turnovers when Minnesota tries to force the ball to those post mismatches. So let's keep an eye on that in this series. Just the specific challenge of Minnesota trying to get the ball to Julius and Nas in scoring position, I think we'll see Shay Guard Mike Conley Mike Conley's pretty low usage for the Wolves at this point. He runs about five ball screens per game in the playoffs, including passes, but he's getting just 0.77 points per possession. He's just 2 for 10 on pull up jump shots in the postseason and just 3 for 12 on floaters. So not too much to worry about on ball in terms of Mike Conley, but he has been doing a good amount of damage off ball as like a transition scorer and as a spot up player. He's shooting 41% on catch and shoot three so far in the playoffs. So Shea's just going to have to do a good job of tracking him when he's in his help and recover situations. Mike's also been pretty successful as an offensive rebounder in this postseason. He's getting two rebounds, two offensive rebounds per 36 minutes. So it'll just have to be a little attentive to him crashing out of the corners. I think we'll see Chad holmgren on Jaden McDaniels operating as a roamer again. He just has to be careful here. Jaden has been a very good offensive player in these playoffs. He's been active as a cutter, active as an offensive rebounder. He's shooting 35% on threes. He's had some explosive scoring games. He had a 30 point game and a 25 point game just in these playoffs, albeit in the Lakers matchup where he had a substantial athletic advantage. The job for Chet will be to be that effective kind of roamer. Just got to be attentive to Jaden. If you let him get free runways to the basket over and over again, he can do real damage there. Isaiah Hartenstein on Rudy Gobert Gobert played in just one game against Oklahoma City this year. He was a plus three in 31 minutes. He had a couple of blocks, kind of the classic Gobert performance in that he makes them so much easier to guard on offense. But then he also causes substantial problems for Oklahoma City's offense with his rim protection. Isaiah Hardenstein will be playing up off of him in ball screens up high in pick and roll. That was something we talked about earlier. They're going to be up at the level against Ant, but he doesn't really have to worry about Gobert on the back line as as a scoring threat he did. He does have offensive rebounding ability there, but in the regular season in their one game he did just get two offensive rebounds. So Oklahoma City did do a good job in that one matchup of keeping him off the glass. We'll talk about this a little bit more later, but I think there's a potential for Hartenstein and Gobert to kind of have their roles minimized over the course of this series as both teams lean more into Chet and Nas Reed at center, but we'll talk about that in a few minutes.
T-Mobile Ad
T Mobile's stats are as impressive as your favorite athlete's highlight reel because T Mobile helps keep you connected from the heart of Portland to right where you are on America's largest 5G network switch. Now keep your phone and T Mobile will pay it off up to $800 per line via prepaid cart. Visit your local T Mobile location or or learn more@t mobile.com keepandswitch up to four lines via virtual prepaid card last 15 days qualifying unlock device credit service port in 90 plus days device and eligible carrier and timely redemption. Required card is no cash access and expires in six months.
Dan Flores
The American west with Dan Flores is the latest show from the Meat Eater Podcast Network. Hosted by me, writer and historian Dan Flores and brought to you by Velvet but Buck, this podcast looks at a West available nowhere else. Each episode I'll be diving into some of the lesser known histories of the West. I'll then be joined in conversation by guests such as Western historian Dr. Randall Williams and best selling author and Meat Eater founder Stephen Rinella.
Clayton English
I'll correct my kids now and then where they'll say when cave people were here And I'll say it seems like.
Jason
The Ice age people that that were.
Dan Flores
Here didn't have a real affinity for caves. So join me starting Tuesday, May 6, where we'll delve into stories of the west and come to understand how it helps inform the ways in which we experience the region today.
Jason
Listen to the American west with Dan Flores on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Clayton English
I'm Clayton English. I'm Greg Lodd and this is season two of the War on Drugs podcast.
Jason
Yes, sir.
Clayton English
We are back in a big way. In.
Jason
In a very big way. Real people, real perspectives.
Clayton English
This is kind of star studded a little bit, man. We got Ricky Williams, NFL player, Heisman Trophy winner.
Jason
It's just the compassionate choice to allow players all reasonable means to care for themselves. Music stars Marcus King, John Osborne from Brothers Osborne. We have this misunderstanding of what this quote unquote drug fans. Benny the Butcher, Brent Smith from Shinedown.
Clayton English
Got Ben Be Real from Cypress Hill, NHL enforcer Riley Cote, Marine Corvette, MMA fighter Liz Caramouche.
Margie Murphy
What we're doing now isn't working and.
Jason
We need to change things. Stories matter and it brings a face to them.
Clayton English
It makes it real.
Jason
It really does. It makes it real.
Clayton English
Listen to new episodes of the War on Drugs Podcast Season 2 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and to hear episodes one week early and ad free with exclusive, exclusive content. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcast.
Margie Murphy
In 2020, a group of young women in a tidy suburb of New York City found themselves in an AI fueled nightmare.
Jason
Someone was posting photos. It was just me naked. Well, not me, but me with someone else's body parts on my body parts that looked exactly like my own.
Margie Murphy
I wanted to throw up. I wanted to scream. It happened in Levittown, New York. But reporting the series took us through the darkest corners of the Internet and to the front lines of a global battle against deepfake pornography.
Jason
This should be illegal, but what is this?
Margie Murphy
This is a story about a technology that's moving faster than than the law and about vigilantes trying to stem the tide. I'm Margie Murphy. And I'm Olivia Carvell. This is Levittown, a new podcast from iHeart Podcasts, Bloomberg and Kaleidoscope. Listen to Levittown on Bloomberg's Big Take podcast. Find it on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jason
Obviously, with Minnesota, you're dealing with a ton of depth right and their closing five often doesn't involve their starting lineup. Nas reed and Dante DiVincenzo are both over 25 minutes per game in the postseason. Nikhil Alexander Walker's at 19 minutes per game. Dante and Nikhil have been twice as frequently in the Excuse me, Dante and Nas Reed have been twice as frequently in the closing lineup as Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. So again closing games you're probably going to see Ant and Dante alongside Jaden with Julius and Nas when we get down to win in time. Nas Reid as Again as we mentioned before, Nas has been their most effective scorer in this matchup in the regular season. He can beat nail help with above the break shooting. This was a big thing with Ant and screening actions just like like little pick and pops or against switches when they are just digging down off the nail. He can get a clean look from like 26, 27ft off of the wing. This is going to be a big swing. Like if Nas can keep burning OKC's help with three threes over the top of contests, that's going to be a big factor in this series. And then he just has a lot of mismatch opportunities on the floor against Oklahoma City's smaller players. He also, as we mentioned earlier, if they go away from Hartenstein and Gobert over the course of the series, he'll have a ton of defensive responsibility as the sole center on the floor for extended stretches. So for Minnesota I think Nas Reed is the biggest X factor in this series. It's all going to be about on the OKC front getting contests in this postseason. Nas is 18 for 30 on unguarded catch and shoots. That's 60% but he's 2 for 10 when he's guarded and if you chase him off the line in a spot up situation, he's shooting just 2 for 7 on twos when he's driving closeout. So being attentive to him off ball, chasing him off the line, getting good contests and then attacking him on defense in space to see if he can contend like again Nasrid, we've seen him be very effective guarding bigger players, but he can struggle at times guarding smaller players then with Dante and Nikhil. These guys will be a critical to Minnesota success on many levels in this series. We'll talk about it in a minute but they'll both spend time on Shake Gil just Alexander. I I actually think we'll see more of Nikhil on Shay and we'll probably see more of Dante on J Dub matching strength for strength. So they'll be playing a role in the defensive end, but these guys are going to get a lot of catch and shoot opportunities this year. Nikhil in particular has gotten a ton of of catch and shoot opportunities against OKC in the regular season. He hit 10 threes in the four games and in one particular game caught a crazy heater that put Minnesota into a commanding lead at one point overall. Keys for Oklahoma City When Minnesota's on offense, pressure and denials, especially if Nas and Julius and their post catches force Ant to pass the ball effectively, those post entries could be the entryway to them getting out in transition against this team. So that's going to be the key for them. And then with Minnesota, find your advantages, make fundamental post entries so pass fakes and then Julius and Nas have to do a good job of ceiling. That was the big mistake Jokic was making in yesterday's game as he wasn't sealing on that passing angle. You got to create a clear passing window and then from there play out of those advantages. I would love to see Ant attacking off the catch early and often in this series and then as a group. And this goes for both teams. You just got to knock down your catch and shoot threes. That's going to be a big swing in this series. All right. Moving forward to Oklahoma City on offense, the matchups we'll see Jaden McDaniel start on Shea. Shea absolutely fried Minnesota this year. There's no way around it. He had 37 or more in three of the four matchups. Really had the three point shot going. He was able to get in the lane and draw fouls an absurd amount of times. He attended attempted 48 free throws in this season series. In theory, Jaden should be able to do better than he did. He's got the length and quickness to guard a guy like sga. Part of it was pressure as a team. Shade just was he they were picking him up further out. Very different than the Denver matchup where they're kind of like more playing off of him and containing and trying to bait him into taking bad over the top jump shots. Minnesota was pressuring him and he was just going right around the first guy and kind of getting ahead of steam into the lane where he was just drawing foul after foul after foul. I would like to see. I know this kind of goes against everything that Minnesota does, but I would like to see at least at some point an attempt from Jaden to play more of a contain and contest style of defense against Shay. Meaning like give him more space play in that like, kind of like range where he can contain the drive but get a late contest on a pull up jump shot prevent him from getting that easy dribble penetration that led to all the fouls that he was drawing in this matchup. But I'm a little worried that they're just going to lean into the pressure just because that's who they are as a basketball team. We will see. But once again it'll be a team job. I think the Keel will get a lot of reps in this matchup and then obviously off ball gapping, shrinking the floor to closing off those driving lanes. Shay did shoot the ball very well from three in this matchup. He made 10 threes in the four games on over 50% from the three from the three point line and guarding J Dub. I'm a little worried about this matchup just because Ant's gonna have such a big offensive workload and his tendency over the years has been to die on screens from time to time when he gets tired. So I think it'll be a jump shooting series for J Dub. The Wolves will have bodies behind him. He's not going to get all the way to the paint that often or all the way into the to the rim that often, especially when Rudy's back there. But J Dub's going to have a lot of opportunities if Ant gets caught on screens to take and make shots in the mid range. Interestingly enough, as bad as J Dub's been from three, he's been just 25% from three in this postseason. He's 21 for 39 on two point jump shots. That's 1.08 points per shot. So an analytically sound mid range game from J Dub so far in this postseason. So like I could see him getting a lot of looks against drop coverage in the middle of the floor. If Ant struggles to navigate screens. Let's keep an eye on that. Mike Conley on Lou Dort getting contests on Dort after helping in the lane. That's going to be the job for Conley. Lou dort this postseason 35% on unguarded threes, 24% on guarded catch and shoot threes. Got to get good closeouts and then keeping him off the offensive glass. We saw this a lot in Game 7, but Lou Dort does a lot of crashing, especially because it similar to Lee. Similarly to what we talked about with Aaron Neesmith in the Pacers Knicks matchup. He's picking up full court anyway, so it just kind of gives him a free license to crash. Towards the front of the rim, because he's going to end up picking up the ball there anyway. So with Mike Conley, it's just going to be about putting his body in front of him, you know, and just taking away those easy opportunities that he can get and then getting a good closeout. I actually like the matchup for Conley strictly in terms of contesting, because I think that fits his speed well. But I'm a little worried about him getting beat up on the offensive glass. Julius Randle on Shet Holmgren. I think we'll see Nas Reed a little bit here as well. Especially like we talked about earlier, if the teams downsize, it's a good matchup for both of those guys. Chet has been below a point per shot on catch and shoot jumpers in the entire playoffs. He shot just 6 for 27 from 3 against Denver. So I think both guys will be able to help in the lane. They'll just have to make sure they throw good closeouts, be effective as helpers in the lane. If you're going to be off ball, you better be helping. And then on Chet's attacks, they just need to attack his base with their strength. They both have a big strength advantage there on Chet's front on this side, like, he's going to keep getting good luck. The good looks that he got in the Denver series that he got in the Memphis series. So Chad can swing this series in a big way. If he just hits the shots that he's been missing so far in this postseason, and then go, go Bear and Hartenstein more help and recover. Kind of like we saw with Jokic over the course of the tail end of the Denver OKC series. If you swipe at Hartenstein on his floater, like if you swipe down low or if you get a good contest off up high, like, you'll. You'll see Hartenstein miss that floater. It actually was super interesting in that series. Cause so many teams over the course of the regular season would basically just concede, like, oh, if they saw Hartenstein catch, they just let him take his floater, and it would just go in over and over and over again. And Jokic was the first guy I've seen, like, really aggressively attack Hartenstein before. He'd shoot the floater, and he forced him into a lot of misses on that shot. So Rudy Gobert, I think, could take a note from that, especially with his longer arms and to get good contests on Hartenstein in the floaters. But again, I'm wondering how much we'll see both of these guys in this series. Dagnal had to lean into Hartenstein a lot in the in the Denver series just because of Jokic and the need they had to match up with his size and strength. I could see him going smaller here. I could see Go Bear becoming a nightmare for Minnesota spacing against Oklahoma City's defense. So I wouldn't be surprised if we looked back on this series and both Gobert and Hartenstein played less than 20 minutes per game. I think that's something to keep an eye on as we go into this round. And then Oklahoma City's bench Kayson Wallace, Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso have been their more reliable catch and shoot guys even than their starters like Caruso. 42% from three in the playoffs. Kayson Wallace and Aaron Wiggins each had three games in the Denver series where they hit multiple threes. So those are guys you're going to have to keep an eye on when they're helping in the lane on on like J Dub and Shea when they're driving My prediction again, I went back and forth on this one a bunch of times. My initial kind of like gut instinct was the lead toward toward Minnesota because of their experience and because I just thought Naz Reed and Julius Randle were better offensive players than some of these guys that Oklahoma City had. But I could very easily say the exact same thing about the Denver matchup. Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, those guys are more reliable offensive players in theory and they couldn't score against Oklahoma City. And what ultimately made up my mind was a lot of what I saw in Game seven yesterday, which is just that, Oklahoma City's defense in my opinion, even though Minnesota's defense is great, I think Oklahoma City's defense is another tier above Minnesota. Not necessarily on paper in terms of talent, but just the sheer degree. The sheer degree to which they fight on every single possession for every single inch. For simple things like post entries, just getting the ball up half court like oh Dort's picking up Aaron Gord in full court just on a random possession and forcing yet another turnover that leads to a run out the other way. These are the two top teams in the league at forcing opponent turnovers in the postseason. Minnesota's averaging 15.9, opponent turnovers, OKC is averaging 18.3. There's a large gap even between the two of them as the top two turnover forcing teams in the NBA. I view the gap between these two defenses as more substantial than the gap in offensive skill and experience that I think Minnesota has an Advantage in so I'm picking Oklahoma City to win this series in six games. I think Ant ends up having a rough series. I think that even though Julius and Nas have their advantages, I think Oklahoma City does a good job of disrupting those feeds and that in the aggregate they're forcing turnovers that actually ends up working out in their favor. And I just think overall, Oklahoma City will have more extended and dramatic stretches of destructive defense that does too much damage for Minnesota to recover from. But to be clear, I I absolutely think Minnesota can win the series. I'd argue they're the better betting option in terms of the odds. There's a clear path for them. Ant is absolutely capable of outplaying Shay Gil Alexander as a shotmaker and as a playmaker in the series. If he does that, that's a big swing. If Nas and Julius do get the ball effectively in their spots on the floor and they do score effectively and draw two to the ball and get the ball out effectively without turning the ball over too much, that could make Minnesota very comfortable in offense role player shooting. If guys like Dante and Nas and Jaden, all these dudes just shoot better than okay, Oklahoma City's role players, that could play a role. And then again, even though I think Minnesota's defense is not as good as Oklahoma City's, it's a sh. It's sure as hell a lot better than Denver's defense or Memphis's defense. And so they could potentially cause a lot of damage to Oklahoma City's offense. Like, I wouldn't be surprised if Game one, for instance, ended up being a series that ended up being a game that went Minnesota's way just because Minnesota is a little bit more comfortable going against an elite defense because they just did so, whereas Oklahoma City will be baptism by fire going into a tougher defense. That said, I don't think home court's going to manage matter much in this series at all. Both of these teams are super athletic. Both of these teams are going to be comfortable playing on the road with their defense. I think even if Minnesota won Game 1, it wouldn't have the same kind of feel as if per se, the Pacers stole Game one in New York, where I think home court for Indiana is such a huge advantage. Right? So keep an eye on that. I think Minnesota's path is to steal Game one. I think they have a good chance to steal Game one because of the shock and awe value of their defense. But over the course of the series, I think Oklahoma City will settle in and I think they have the better defense and I think it is enough of an advantage to make up for the experience and offense advantages that Minnesota has. All right, guys, that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. As you guys know, there's no game tonight, so everyone enjoy the night. We'll be back. No show tomorrow morning, obviously, but we'll be back tomorrow night after the final buzzer of Western conference finals game one. We'll be live on YouTube, you know, for a half hour or so. And then after the game we'll be heading over to Playback TV Hoops tonight for our after show where we get informal, take callers, talk, have fun, watch film, all that kind of stuff. Got a big, big night planned for you guys tomorrow. We will see you guys then. What's up guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting Hoops tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it. The volume. It's a great time of year to get out and see some of these live events. We've got concerts and comedy shows all over the country. I got out to the sphere for a three night set to see Dead and company last month. The NBA playoffs are in full swing. Lots of good games to see there. The major League Baseball season is underway and this is why I want to give a shout out to the sponsor of today's video, SeatGeek. With over 28 million downloads, SeatGeek is the number one rated ticketing app. There are more than 70,000 events listed on SeatGeek, including concerts, sports festivals and more. And like I said earlier, you can get tickets to the NBA playoffs now. I'm super excited to see several of these series in the first round. Look at all these tickets that you can find and it'll even tell you whether or not that ticket is a particularly good deal. Here's an amazing deal for game three. Here's another great deal, another amazing deal. You can find all these options on SeatGeek. SeatGeek has your back. Each ticket is rated on a scale of 1 to 10. So you know exactly how much of a deal you're getting. Green means good, red means bad. Plus every ticket is backed by their buyer guarantee. You know I came through for you guys. You can use code HOOPS10, that's H O O P S10 for 10% off your next set of tickets. At SeatGeek, that's 10% off any tickets with promo code HOOPS10. Make sure you click the link in the description to download the app, and have the code automatically added to your account so you can use it later. And thank you. SeatGeek AI is redefining what's possible for your business. With more unique challenges to solve and higher stakes than ever, Microsoft helps you stay ahead. Our Our trustworthy AI tools and guidance can empower leaders like you to drive greater impact. And with Azure's simplified platform management, we're helping businesses go further and faster by unlocking up to 150% improved output. Whatever challenges come next, let Microsoft help you keep pushing forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com challengers. You're listening to an iHeart podcast.
Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "Hoops Tonight - Series Preview: Thunder-Timberwolves Series Preview + Prediction"
Episode Information:
Jason kicks off the episode with an enthusiastic welcome, setting the stage for an in-depth preview of the Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves. He outlines the structure of the discussion, which includes a review of the season series, key metrics, betting odds, offensive strategies of both teams, and concludes with his prediction for the series outcome.
Notable Quote:
"Today we're doing our Western Conference Finals preview between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves. I went back and forth on this series a half dozen times since last night, but I did find an answer I will be revealing at the tail end of the show."
[00:50]
Jason reviews the season series between the Thunder and Timberwolves, highlighting a particularly memorable game where Minnesota overcame a 14-point deficit in the final three minutes to force overtime, ultimately securing the win. Key performances included Anthony Edwards' significant block on Shay Gil and the contributions of bench players like Nikhil Alexander, Walker, and Nas Reed.
Notable Quote:
"Anthony Edwards had a huge block on Shay Gil... that was a game that Oklahoma City had taken control of until the final minutes."
[03:00]
The discussion delves into crucial statistics that underscore the competitiveness of the series. Both teams showcased nearly identical offensive ratings—Minnesota at 114.7 and Oklahoma City at 114.6. However, Minnesota holds a rebounding advantage, securing 53.2% of available rebounds compared to Oklahoma City's lower percentage.
Notable Quote:
"Rebounding was a big advantage towards Minnesota. They grabbed 53.2% of available rebounds."
[06:10]
Jason examines the current betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, noting that despite Oklahoma City being a 3.30-point favorite, he questions this stance based on his analysis. He suggests that Minnesota offers better value at +2.65, presenting a compelling case for bettors despite Oklahoma City's favored status.
Notable Quote:
"I think that's a good price for a team that absolutely has a good chance to win this series, even though we can all agree Oklahoma City should be favored."
[07:30]
A deep dive into Minnesota's offensive strategies reveals how the team leverages player strengths, especially Nas Reed and Julius Randle. Jason highlights the tough defensive assignments Anthony Edwards faces and the importance of maintaining offensive flow without forcing plays. He emphasizes the need for Ant (Anthony Edwards) to balance aggression with strategic playmaking.
Notable Quote:
"Ant is going to need to avoid forcing the issue, play in the flow, keep it moving, make sure his forwards get their touches."
[08:45]
Jason shifts focus to Oklahoma City's offensive tactics, spotlighting Jaden McDaniels' performance against Minnesota. He critiques the Thunder's aggressive defense, which has led to multiple free throws for opponents, and underscores the importance of strategic defensive adjustments to contain key Timberwolves players.
Notable Quote:
"Jaden should be able to do better than he did. He's got the length and quickness to guard a guy like SGA."
[12:15]
The analysis extends to the bench contributions from both teams. Oklahoma City's bench players like Kayson Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, and Alex Caruso are noted for their exceptional shooting performances, which have been pivotal in their playoff run. Jason underscores the necessity for Minnesota to monitor these role players to prevent late-game surges.
Notable Quote:
"Oklahoma City's bench Kayson Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, and Alex Caruso have been their more reliable catch and shoot guys even than their starters."
[13:45]
After weighing various factors, Jason predicts that Oklahoma City will triumph in the series, projecting a six-game victory. He bases this prediction on Oklahoma City's superior defensive intensity and turnover forcing, despite Minnesota's offensive advantages and depth. However, he acknowledges Minnesota's potential to influence the series outcome through strategic playmaking and effective shooting.
Notable Quote:
"I think Oklahoma City will settle in and I think they have the better defense and I think it is enough of an advantage to make up for the experience and offense advantages that Minnesota has."
[16:20]
Jason wraps up the episode by expressing gratitude to listeners for their support and encouraging them to leave ratings and reviews. He previews upcoming content, including live discussions on YouTube post Game One of the Western Conference Finals, and promotes the show's integration with Playback TV Hoops Tonight for further analysis and interaction.
Notable Quote:
"As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show... We'll be back tomorrow night after the final buzzer of Western Conference Finals game one."
[17:00]
Conclusion:
This episode of "Hoops Tonight" offers a comprehensive preview of the Thunder-Timberwolves Western Conference Finals matchup, blending statistical analysis with strategic insights. Jason provides a balanced view, acknowledging both teams' strengths and potential weaknesses, ultimately favoring Oklahoma City's defensive prowess as the deciding factor in the series outcome. For listeners eager to understand the dynamics of this high-stakes basketball series, this episode serves as an invaluable resource.