The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Hoops Tonight – SGA vs. Luka Debate, Why Warriors Are Struggling, Wembanyama vs. Jokic | NBA Mailbag

Date: December 26, 2025
Host: Jason Timpf (Hoops Tonight)
Podcast presented by The Volume / iHeartPodcasts

Episode Overview

This episode of "Hoops Tonight" is an NBA mailbag edition, in which Jason Timpf takes audience questions on some of the league's hottest topics. He dives into the heated Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) vs. Luka Dončić debate, breaks down the struggles of the Golden State Warriors, analyzes recent comments from Victor Wembanyama about the “best player in the world” concerning Nikola Jokic, and discusses how to fairly evaluate two-way stars versus offensive juggernauts. Jason also addresses questions on rising prospects and evaluates the expanding top-tier player field. His approach is analytical, candid, and often nuanced, as he tries to separate team context from individual greatness.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. SGA vs. Luka Dončić: Who’s Better Right Now?

(Mailbag kicks off at 03:15)

• Fan Question Summary: Is it fair to directly compare SGA’s and Luka’s individual performances given their differing team contexts? Should team success factor into individual player rankings?
• Jason’s Approach: He tries to rank players "in a vacuum," isolating individual quality from team situation and performance.
• Jason admits that coming into the season he gave Luka the edge over SGA because Luka was the superior playmaker and previously demonstrated elite playoff scoring.
• However, two big shifts this season:
  • Luka’s regression: "He has been nowhere near as efficient and he's been turning the basketball over a lot. Those two particular things are hurting his efficiency." (06:17)
  • SGA’s leap: “Shea... took a dramatic leap in efficiency this year. His true shooting percentage has skyrocketed into the high 60s and he's cut his turnovers.” (07:00)
• Jason concedes that even when accounting for team context, Shea’s personal advances in efficiency and decision-making have created a “gigantic chasm now between the two of them in overall efficiency.”
• Quote:

  "The gap between who they were as playmakers... I gave Luka just a tiny bit of an edge over Shai coming into the season. But... now I have Shai in front.” (07:40)

“Luka fails more.”

• Discussing the impact of missed shots and turnovers:

  • “Luka fails more. That's the way I'd put it too. I'd agree with [Carson from Nerd Sesh] in that characterization. Like when you fail on offense, it can trigger the opponent's offense.” (13:01)

• On Efficiency Metrics:

  • Jason distinguishes between field goal percentage, three-point shooting, and true shooting percentage, arguing that true shooting best reflects overall scoring impact in context—but only to a point, as live ball turnovers or missed threes can hurt transition defense.

Team Success vs. Individual Greatness

• Jason pushes back against using only team achievements for player debates:

  “Shay literally won MVP and finals MVP last year and I ranked him third. I don't move players up or down based solely on team success. I try to view it in a vacuum as best as I can.” (07:16)

2. True Shooting, 3-Point Reliance, and Offensive Styles

(Sustained at 08:54–13:30)

• Lakers and Luka are highly reliant on drawing fouls and scoring from free throws—making their offensive efficiency look high in the big picture.
• SGA, by contrast, is less reliant on drawing fouls and more efficient both from two and three.
  • “Luka is relying on getting to the foul line so considerably more than Shay is at this point.” (13:01)
• Missed threes can fuel opponents' transition chances—even if the math works over time; Shea's style reduces these risks.

3. Victor Wembanyama, Jokic, and What Makes an MVP-Level Superstar

(Segment at 18:43–23:55)

• Context: Wemby recently commented that Jokic is the best offensive player but not the best overall, putting himself, Giannis, and SGA in that conversation due to two-way play.
• Jason’s Counterpoint: Elite offense is more valuable than elite defense, especially for a superstar.

  “You can build an elite defense without needing a superstar defender... It's very difficult to be an elite offense without an elite offensive superstar. I argue it's impossible.” (19:47)

  • “I'd take Jokic and a good group of defenders over Wemby and a bunch of league-average offensive players.”
• Analogy: References Lakers’ and Mavs’ recent postseason runs, showing that offense-breaking stars are usually more irreplaceable than individual defenders.
• On LeBron’s Late Career:

  "I've dealt with this personally since LeBron aged out… A.D. could be...the best defensive player in the world... but it didn't matter because they weren't good enough offensively.” (21:02)

4. Why the Warriors Are Struggling: Front Office Mistakes and Aging Stars

(23:55–28:20)

• Front Office & Ownership:

  • Jason puts most blame on Golden State’s ownership for refusing to move on from Jonathan Kuminga when his asset value was high.

    “The ownership group and their unwillingness to let go of Jonathan Kaminga and the fact that he was clearly a bust relative to where they picked him has set this franchise back.” (24:38)

  • Missed multiple trade opportunities for players like Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, or even Malik Monk, resulting in stagnant roster improvement.

• Team Issues:

  • Warriors can’t score when Steph’s off the floor.
  • Defense has slipped; veterans (Draymond, Jimmy Butler) have started to show age-related decline.
  • Jason notes that “if you start the season and you have a 3 and 8 stretch early... it can be devastating to your entire kind of vibe in the locker room.” (27:16)

• Conclusion: The lack of creative front-office moves and aging core have converged to make the Warriors’ current funk inevitable, despite Steph’s continued excellence.

5. Prospect Talk: Should the Lakers Have Traded Austin Reaves for Young Talent?

(28:22–30:56)

• An audience member asks if trading Reaves for Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard would have been wise.
• Jason admits he underrated Reed Sheppard—his shooting is "legitimately awesome" now.
• However, there’s a “gigantic chasm” between Austin Reaves and Sheppard defensively:
  • “Reed was getting mercilessly picked on... and he looked completely physically overmatched because he's so small.” (30:27)
• Jason sees Sheppard as an excellent sixth man in the near-term but not ready to anchor high-leverage playoff lineups defensively.

6. Who Belongs in the Top 10 Players? Small Sample, Tough Choices

(31:00–32:57)

• Criticism from listeners about spot choices in Jason’s top 10 list (e.g., including Giannis and Wemby despite missed games, omitting Jalen Brunson, Jamal Murray, Austin Reaves).
• Jason: “That list is longer… there's like 13, 14 guys that you could really consider.” (32:11)
• Notes: The league’s top and second-tier "star" pool is deeper than ever, and splitting hairs is getting “a lot harder than it looks on the surface.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On SGA vs. Luka:

  “What had been a very close race for me in favor of Luka has now flipped to where now I have Shai in front.” (07:32)

• On Foul-Hunting:

  "Luka is actually more reliant on the free throws than Shea is... Luka fails more. That's the way I'd put it too.” (13:01)

• On Superstar Value:

  “It's easier to build a good defense around an offensive-minded superstar than to build a great offense around a defensive-minded superstar.” (20:14)

• On the Warriors & Kuminga:

  “Jonathan Kaminga should have been traded two years ago and then should have been traded this summer. And just every opportunity that the Warriors have had to do so, they've just not done it.” (25:53)

• On Reed Sheppard’s Growth:

  “Reid has taken a significant leap... where he's knocking down shots not just on the catch but off the dribble at a really high rate.” (29:42)

Key Timestamps

• Mailbag & SGA vs. Luka Debate Begins: 03:15
• Efficiency, True Shooting, and Offensive Comparison: 08:54
• 'Luka Fails More' Explanation: 13:01
• Evaluating Two-Way Stars vs. Jokic/Wemby Conversation: 18:43
• Why the Warriors Are Struggling: 23:55
• Lakers, Austin Reaves, and Prospect Development: 28:22
• Top 10 Player Discussion & Final Thoughts: 31:00

Summary Takeaways

This episode goes beyond surface-level debates and dives deep into how to evaluate NBA superstars, why schematic and contextual nuance matters, and how front office decisions reverberate for years. Jason Timpf’s analytical approach offers fresh perspectives on headline stories—particularly SGA's ascendancy above Luka and the enduring relevance of offensive engines in championship team-building. The episode offers thoughtful explanations for basketball fans seeking insight, not just hot takes.