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Greg Rosenthal (1:40)
What's up everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal and I'm teaming up with the King of Spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs mock drafts to my top 101 free agents will have it covered for you, with all new episodes every Thursday keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents starting on March 6th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your.
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That's code hoops for new customers to get 150 in bonus bets. When you bet just five bucks only on DraftKings, the crown is yours. Gambling Problem Call 1-800- gambler in New York, call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY to 467-369 in Connecticut. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas. 21 plus. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void. In Ontario, bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. For additional gaming resources, see DKNG Co B Ball. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Wednesday everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great week. Got a jam pack show for you tonight. We're hitting both of the ESPN games as the Minnesota Timberwolves continue their dominance over the Denver Nuggets, winning their fifth consecutive game in this matchup, including their second consecutive game in Denver. In this matchup, we're going to talk a little bit about the surging Wolves and the success that they're beginning to have on the offensive end of the floor. I want to talk about Anthony Edwards growth as a processor in the half court, the Julius Randle upside, which, as we've talked about the Wolves throughout this year, has probably gone a little bit under the radar in the sense that there's a lot of downsides with that deal. But there is an upside and I want to talk a little bit about that and talk a little bit about Denver and how they can overcome the issues they're having in this matchup. After that, we're going to move on to the the earlier game in the slate as the Oklahoma City Thunder go on the road in Boston without Jalen Williams and get a huge win against the Boston Celtics. A lot of their young talent had to step up with J. Dove out and they all did. Chet Holmgren goes for 23 and 15. A monster night from him. We're going to break both of those games down from the perspective of both teams. And then at the tail end of the show, like we always do every week for Microsoft, we have our course correction segment. This week we're going to be covering Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. All right, let's talk some basketball. Actually, before we get started, subscribe to the YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on twitter@_jasonlt so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating and a review on that front. We also have brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. We're releasing content throughout the year. Make sure you guys follow us there. And last but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube comments so that we can hit them throughout the rest of the season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So the Timberwolves have been playing a little bit of a light schedule, but they had won five games in a row coming into tonight. They had a 1:25 offensive rating over that five game stretch. Anthony Edwards continuing to score at the level that he's been scoring all year long, doing a nice job taking care of the basketball. Julius Randle was doing some really nice playmaking work in that stretch, averaging over 7 minutes, 7 assists per game, getting lots of production out of Nas Reed, getting lots of production out of Jaden McDaniels has really come alive as a jump shooter. They'd been coming alive offensively as they had hung a 125 offensive rating over those previous five games. Denver has been playing bad defense all year and they've been horrific on defense without Aaron Gordon. So tonight had the potential to get ugly. Then you add in the fact that this matchup has historically given the Nuggets a lot of issues. Like I mentioned off the top, the Timberwolves have now beaten the Nuggets five consecutive times, including twice consecutively in Denver. And the reason why is they have the ability to attack one of Denver's biggest advantages and the ability to attack Denver's, I should say they have the ability to mitigate one of Denver's biggest advantages and they have the ability to attack one of Denver's biggest weaknesses. One of Denver's biggest advantages is that they're bigger than most teams. Now obviously it's a little different without Aaron Gordon, but this issue has persisted in this matchup even when Aaron Gordon is healthy. Typically it's like 6, 10 Michael Porter Jr. 6, 9 Aaron Gordon, 7 foot Nicole Jokic big and strong with Gordon and Jokic and they just kind of overwhelmed teams with just a lot of size. Right. And Jokic is also just the primary driving force behind that. Right. But it's obviously going to be exacerbated with Aaron Gordon out. But that problem has consistently been an issue with Minnesota. Minnesota because of Nas Reed, Julius Randall or Carl Anthony Towns last year, Rudy Gobert, who Jokic has fried at times in the past. We saw last year was a game 5, I believe that he had like that unbelievable night where he just was frying Rudy Gobert every time down the floor. But Go Bear makes him work and he's got some length and he can occasionally bother him around the rim and give him some issues. And so they have the ability to match up with Denver's size. And then the second piece of it is this is a team that is weak in rim protection. This is a concept I've talked a ton about this year with Nicole Jokic. It stems from a couple of different issues. Aaron Gordon, when he's out, he's a lot of the backup rim protection behind Jokic. And then all of these guys that can come hard off of screens that have the pull up shooting ability to draw Jokic out into space, but the driving ability to get past him and get to the rim can cause some issues for the Denver Nuggets. And when you add in the growth of Anthony Edwards and some of the skip passes he was unleashing tonight against a Nuggets team that constantly has to load up on ball screens. They can really struggle to guard in this matchup as well. And so that's the issue when your offense is specifically struggling against Minnesota's defense and your defense is specifically struggling against Minnesota's offense. As a matchup, it can lead to extended dominance like we've seen here. This is one of the big reasons why I refer to the playoffs as an entirely different animal to the regular season. We've been talking about this concept a lot over the course of this last week. The reality that like, it doesn't really matter how good your advanced metrics are, doesn't really matter what win pace you're on in the regular season, doesn't matter what you accomplish from the middle of October to the middle of April. What matters is when you end up in a two week stretch against a particular team. How well do you guard that particular team, and how well can that particular team guard you for two weeks? And if you can't solve that problem, it doesn't matter. I talked a lot last year about how I would have picked Denver against Boston. They didn't get a chance to play Boston. I think they would have beat Dallas. They didn't get a chance to play Dallas. Why? Because part of the Western Conference puzzle is you have to beat three teams to get out of that conference. And if you catch a team that's a bad matchup, like Minnesota was for Denver, you can get knocked out early. It's a super fascinating dynamic about the way the game of basketball is more complicated than any scientific ability. We have to capture it. Right. One of the big things that stood out to me tonight was the growth of Anthony Edwards as a processor. And this is. I've been watching a lot over the course of this season, and I think he's been dissuaded from a lot of growth in this area over the years because of the supporting cast. I talk a lot about believing in what you're doing, and I talk about it in a macro sense for guys like Stephen Lebron who have been reinvigorated by trades. But it even works in the smaller and more refined sense when you're talking about passing. If I pass to you in the corner a bunch of times and you miss, and you miss, and you miss and you miss and you make one and then you miss, and then you miss, and then you miss and you make one, then you miss four more, I might get to the point where I no longer believe that that pass is worth it for me. And as Jaden McDaniels has started to make more shots, Ant is started to trust him on that skip pass more and more. I thought it was fascinating when we got into the second half of this game and Denver just comes out guns blazing. They quickly go on a run. They cut it down to, what was it, five or seven at some point a few minutes into the third quarter. And then Anthony Edwards three consecutive times and ball screens, pulls y up to the level. The low man comes over off of Jaden McDaniels in the corner. He skipped it to McDonald, to McDaniels. Three skips it to McDaniels again. Three skips it to Mike Conley, drives a closeout, gets a layup in the lane. Bam. Whatever momentum Denver had coming out of the half was completely gone. And it's like you want Ant to grow as a playmaker. It's stuff like that working as especially for a young player. And again, what do I always talk about with young players? They can struggle sometimes to replicate what is successful and to minimize their mistakes. Right? And like a lot of times that development curve can be influenced by things working and then believing in what they're doing. And I, I think it's been really cool to watch that. He did a lot of damage to. He missed a lot of threes especially early in the game. But I thought his shot making coming on, coming off of those ball screens, even when Jokic was there hitting those contested pull up threes in his face, those are big time shots, big time momentum killing shots. You could even see some of the discouragement in Denver's defense because there's not really anything you can do when ant the athlete that he is comes flying off of a screen and just elevates over the top. It knocks down that shot. It was big time night from Anthony Edwards. He goes for 29 points and six assists in this one. And then Julius Randall, who I thought was brilliant, especially in the early portions of the game, just attacking matchups and getting to that short little fadeaway jump shot that he likes right in the middle of the lane. You know, Julius Randle to me is one of the better like matchup attacking forwards in the league when he's healthy and in rhythm. And this has been the issue with Julius Randle throughout his career is like half the time he's either playing through a nagging injury or coming back from an injury where he's kind of out of rhythm and struggling to kind of get his just get back into a groove. And when you watch Julius Randall on those games, it can be so ugly because when he's out of shape he can cut corners on defense. When he's missing his jump shot, it can look really ugly at times. He is a bully ball player who can start initiating a bunch of contact in the middle of the floor and sometimes those possessions can get really ugly. But again, this is a player who's made the all NBA team. This is a player that when he's healthy, when he's in rhythm is a very gifted matchup attacker in the half court. And like again, I'm going to be 100% honest with you guys. I wish that Minnesota would have just run it back with Carl Anthony Towns. I thought they were a lot closer than they looked last year. Just based on the development trajectory of Anthony Edwards and the fact that he's just going to keep getting demonstrably better year after year after year. And you punted on that and I, I understand there were some other implications involving the cap and flexibility for the team moving forward and again I, I wish they would have run it back. That said, if you guys remember what I said back when the trade was made, I talked about an upside, an upside that existed within this mold involving the shot creation piece of Julius Randall. Carl Anthony Towns has been a better basketball player than Julius Randall this season. Aside from when Julius is at his absolute ceiling, which has been too rare for us to consider it consistent. Cat is an all around better basketball player than Julius Randall and has shown that throughout his career. But there is a specific thing, one specific thing that Julius Randall is much better at in my opinion than Karl Anthony Towns and that's one on one basketball in the mid post which is such a valuable tool. When we get into these slow down playoff environments where things grind to screeching halt and role players struggle to knock down threes and it becomes about what stars are better at creating shots. Julius is not only good at bullying players there, he is able to shoot over the top so he can solve spacing related problems like oh Go Bear's sitting under the basket and they're not guarding him. His man is sitting under the rim so he can't go all the way to the rim. That's fine. He can shoot a little 10 to 12 foot fade away over his left shoulder in the middle of the floor. You send an extra defender. Julius is actually a pretty solid playmaker passing out of the double teams that he gets in those situations. And so there's always been a big picture upside with Minnesota as this big physical, bruising team that can grind teams down in the playoffs. I've been talking a lot about this in the middle portion of the season as Minnesota has started to come on strong and win some high profile matchups. Never underestimate the playoff whistle in the way that these big ass kicking physical teams can be a real problem in that setting. And so if you, you can imagine the ingredients, right, it's that big physical defense that causes a bunch of problems for teams. It's Anthony Edwards growth as a playmaker and as a shot maker. Again this was a guy who was what, 28 points per game or 27 points per game on 60% true shooting in the playoffs last year. Feels pretty good that he's going to be, be able to stay at that level. He's been at that level all three of his playoff runs as a shot maker. Anthony Edwards shot making. And then the third piece of it is Julius Randall as this like surgical half court matchup attacker. The pathway for Minnesota is to make things ugly. Julius plays ugly sometimes, and obviously as he's developing as a playmaker, can play ugly sometimes. But you get the they thrive in that ugliness with their size and strength. Look at the damage they did just with waves of athleticism at the rim in this game. And so again, I would have preferred for them to run it back with Cat just to see, because it's a bummer when a team is in their growth trajectory and you throw a giant curveball like that and who the hell knows what's going to happen as far as the the future with Julius and his contract and whether or not they can maintain the use of that asset or not. But in the short term, there is an upside here, and it's a brutally physical Minnesota Timberwolves defense that can get in your jersey and rush you into making mistakes. Like guys Michael Porter Jr. And Jamal Murray didn't look comfortable at all tonight. Seven for 25 from the field, one for eight from three. This is not the only time we've seen this. Michael Porter Jr completely fell apart in the Timberwolf series last year. Jamal Murray was brutal in the losses in that series, even in game seven when he had 35 or whatever it was that he had. He had those 35 before the run and then for the entirety of the run from the time the nuggets were up 20 or whatever to well into the Timberwolves having the lead, Jamal Murray scored a big fat zero points. And so when these things have gone south for Denver in this matchup, it's usually not Jokic. Jokic has some issues in this matchup surrounding turnovers. He had a couple sloppy ones in the open court tonight. He had seven turnovers in a game earlier this regular season. He had some sloppy turnover games in that playoff series. But overall, like Jokic went out there tonight was like, I'm not losing to these guys. I'm gonna find a way to kick their ass. And he did all night. He was great. He had 34 points. He was getting whatever he wanted. But the rest of the roster seems to just kind of like shrivel up under the physical pressure of what Minnesota brings to the table. And they're not the only team that Minnesota is capable of doing that, too. And so again, when you get past the top tier of contenders, right, like we've talked about that top tier, when you get into the second tier, it's that if things go right kind of contender tier. And in that tier, it's a lot of flawed teams with a lot of issues. Teams like Milwaukee, teams like New York, teams like Minnesota, for instance. All of these teams, it's like they, Minnesota could easily catch matchups where they fall apart, especially against teams that can really protect the rim like we've talked about. Right? But this is that matchup tier and it's all about catching favorable matchups and maybe things can go your way. You can see that pathway for Minnesota centering around defense and the shot creation of Anthony Edwards and Julius Randall. I thought Dante DiVincenzo brought incredible energy from, from the beginning in this game. A lot of extra efforts defensively getting up in the jersey of the guard he's defending. Did a. I had a couple of like really nice deflections around the rim. He brought a verve to the offensive end of the floor, stepped into some big above the break threes that were big momentum shots in this game. I just. Really impressive night from Minnesota Timberwolves on the Nuggets front. Again, this is a mental advantage. This is a domination that extends beyond what you're seeing on the court. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. In particular, and a lot of the guys on this roster don't look confident in this particular matchup. And by the way, I can relate. I remember seeing this firsthand with the LeBron James, Anthony Davis Lakers against the Nuggets over the course of the last couple of years where it's like, we can hang with you guys, we're right there. But then whether it's a big third quarter run or a big fourth quarter run, it just inevitably slips away and then the team becomes dejected and it just, it like a, like a very tangible confidence dynamic starts to shift towards Denver and it just feels like the exact same game just on repeat every single time. I'd watch that matchup and this is starting to feel the same way. Sloppy turnovers. Denver's offense falls apart. Their role players don't look comfortable. Minnesota's just living at the rim all night long. It's one of those things where in order to overcome that, there's a certain amount of like you almost need to win a game just to prove that you can win that game. And then from there things can loosen up a little bit. But it looks bleak in this particular matchup right now. And again, Aaron Gordon will help. But that's not the only, that's not the only game that we've seen between these two teams. Aaron Gordon's been available and they've still had issues in this matchup. I do think it's worth bringing up. And again, I know Minnesota has been playing really good defense this year, but it continues to be a problem that they're consistently existing in rotation. Like even just like simple pocket passes to Rudy Gobert rumbling down the rim, these skip passes that are always open against their pick and roll coverage. There's a consistent issue with Denver where they're in rotation and when you're in rotation and you're also slow, that's where you're going to have some problems. Jamal Murray slow. Michael Porter Jr. Slow. Nicole Jokic is slow. And so when they end up in rotation and they have to cover all this ground, that roster weakness can rise to the surface. And it has been an extended stretch here where Denver has really, really struggled to get stops. And I'd be lying if I didn't say I'm at least a little worried about that. In the big picture.
