← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Hoops Tonight - Top 10 NBA Contenders: LeBron & Lakers TOP 5 with Luka, Celtics or Thunder #1?
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Mary Kay McBrayer
I'm Mary Kay McBrayer, host of the podcast the Greatest True Crime Stories Ever Told. This season explores women from the 19th century to now. Women who were murderers and scammers, but also women who were photojournalists, lawyers, writers and more. This podcast tells more than just the brutal, gory details of horrific acts. I delve into the good, the bad, the difficult and all the nuance I can find because these are the stories that we need to know to understand the intersection of society, justice and the fascinating workings of the human psyche. Join me every week as I tell some of the most enthralling true crime stories about women who are not just victims, but heroes or villains, or often somewhere in between. Listen to the greatest true crime stories ever told on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Black History Month is here and we're excited to kick off season four of I didn't know. Maybe you didn't either. This season we're shining a spotlight on revolutionary women who redefined excellence. Give Grace Wisher her flowers next time you see the American flag. You just remember a 16 year old black woman helped to make it happen. Listen to I didn't. Maybe you didn't either. From the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast or simply wherever you get your podcast.
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The volume who's scoring big in the NBA this season? You are with all the new ways to get in on the action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. From Monster Slams to dishing the rock to cleaning the glass, get behind your favorite players in the prop bets you can make on DraftKings, the home of NBA player props. Ready to place your first bet? Try betting on simple like picking how many points your favorite player will have. Go to the DraftKings sportsbook app and make your pick right now. The Oklahoma City Thunder have supplanted the Boston Celtics as the favorites to win the title on DraftKings at +225 with the Celtics right behind them at +235. First time here's something special just for you. New DraftKings customers bet $5 to get 150 in bonus bets instantly. Take it to the rack with DraftKings Sportsbook. Every point counts. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code HOOPS. That's H O O P S. That's code hoops for new customers to get one in bonus bets. When you bet just five bucks only on DraftKings, the crown is yours. Gambling problem call 1-800-Gambler in New York, call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY to 467-369 in Connecticut. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas. 21 plus. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void. In Ontario, bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkng. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Tuesday everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great week like we always do during the All Star break. We're going to take some time today to zoom out and take a look at our contender rankings. We're going to be ranking 15 teams today. You guys know the drill. Before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at_jason lt so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating and a review. On that front, don't forget about our brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook where we're releasing content throughout the year. And then last but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube comments so we can keep getting to them on Fridays throughout the remainder of the season. So again, this is our contender rankings are kind of a living document, right? Like stuff is moving around as we get more information. I just wanted to kind of peg down a list right here. At this point in the season, I'm going to break these teams into five tiers. Okay. And remember, this is not like our power rankings. Our power rankings, which we're going to get back to doing starting next Monday. Those are where we're just kind of shouting out the teams that are playing well as of late. Right. More kind of focusing on the regular season. This is strictly who do I think has the best chance to get all the way to the Larry O'Brien Trophy? Not to win one series, not even to win two series. Strictly how likely I think these teams are to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Our first tier is our top tier contenders. These are teams that are so good and that have so much in the way of expectations that anything involving them losing before even getting to the Finals would be considered a complete failure. These are teams that are championship or bust. Starting with number one, the Boston Celtics, who've been number one all year for me. They are currently at DraftKings at +235 to win the title. They've actually been supplanted as the favorite on DraftKings. Now the Thunder at plus 225 are the favorites. I don't like that value for OKC. I I think it's far more likely that OKC gets beat in the west than Boston gets beat in the east. And I'd pick Boston over OKC head to. So like in terms of the betting odds, I I don't think that's a good price for okc. But they are currently the favorite to win the title. Boston is the clear number one pick to me because they have the hardest weakness to exploit. They don't actually have a personnel weakness really at all. They just have a personality weakness. Their top six in offense, defense and defensive rating or defensive rebounding. There are top 10 paint defense, their top five 3 point line defense and Cleaning the Glass currently has them as the number one transition defense in the NBA. Their weaknesses? They occasionally play really shitty basketball in the regular season and that to me has so much more to do with just malaise than anything else. They have a 123 offensive rating against the top 10 teams in point differential according to Cleaning the Glass. That ranks second in the NBA and they're also seventh in defense in those matchups in in terms of win loss in those matchups. They have a 69 win percentage against teams in the top 10 at point differential. That ranks number one in the NBA even over the Thunder even over the Cavs. I even think they've been feeling a little bit of like a reverse version of what the Cavs got in the early part of the year where like several Celtics are shooting well below their norms from three and I think that's something that will normalize over the tail end of the season. To me, they're better than the Thunder for a few key reasons. Number one, I think Jason Tatum's gotten a lot better and is now on the same tier as a guy like Shay Gilders Alexander. So I don't see the Thunders having some substantial star advantage. Like I looked at it as a problem for the Celtics in years past. I also too think the Celtics are far more experienced down the roster in the playoff setting than OKC is. Later on, I'm going to talk to you guys about age and I'm going to list some of the ages of some of the players on both rosters and you guys will get a better feel for that. But I do think experience is a big advantage for Boston. And then three, I think Boston's offense translates much better to the postseason than Oklahoma City's offense does and I think the gap between these two teams defensively in the playoff context is substantially smaller. So I think again, I think Boston, what we're seeing from them, what we know they can do, is more reliable in the playoff context and what we've seen from, okay from Oklahoma City, they're versatile too. They can protect the rim, they have great switching looks, they have big lineups, they have small lineups. They have more players that can initiate offense than anyone in the league. But at the same time they have a ton of dudes who can play off ball as play finishers and I think they have an easier path through the conference. I think Boston is the clear cut championship favorite at this point. I think a lot of the stuff we've seen from them that's looked bad at times this year is mostly just dealing with the 82 game regular season after you've already won the trophy. And again, all these other teams that we're talking about are just dealing with another level of urgency. The Celtics are still a clear number one for me. Number two, the Oklahoma City Thunder on DraftKings at + 225 to win the title. The main point of optimism for me with the Thunder is their defense. They have the best defense in the league and it isn't particularly close. The gap between their defensive rating and the second best defensive rating is the same as the gap between the second best defensive rating and the 10th best defensive rating in the NBA. They defend well in every single area like Boston does, but they also force a ton of turnovers and get out and transition off a bunch off of those turnovers, which is something that Boston doesn't. The only thing that don't do well on defense Defenses. They're not a good defensive rebounding team, but that is just a a real asset that they have in any playoff series. The best defense in the league. That's going to provide a lot of problems for teams to deal with. I also think Oklahoma City has a much better primary weapon to deploy on stars in terms of Lou Dort, who I think is a top tier guy in that regard and just like a real asset to just be able to put him on the other team's best player and just know for a fact that he's going to make that guy uncomfortable. He does it against guards like Donovan Mitchell and bigs of big old wings like Luka Doncic, like he's just as versatile as they get. Just a huge weapon for that defense. And statistically their offense is excellent. They're sixth in overall offensive rating, their fifth and half court offensive rating and Cleaning the Glass has them as the fourth best transition offense in the league. Shea is still the substantial favorite to win the MVP on DraftKings right now, so every metric would tell us that Oklahoma City is the best team in the league. Again, like I mentioned earlier, even DraftKings has them as the championship favorite. So why do I have Boston ahead of them? I think Oklahoma City's dominance in this particular regular season is a bit inflated over their playoff viability. I have consistently talked about over the years about how young super athletic teams have a certain impact in the regular season that older veteran teams struggle to match. It gets even more exaggerated by the fact that in the regular season you don't have as much time to prep. When you run into OKC for a single game on a random Tuesday in February, it can catch you off guard. You can get your butt kicked. Especially when their defense is built on aggression enforcing mistakes. Every single one of their top eight minutes per game guys in their rotation is 26 or younger. Three of them are 23 or younger. Here's the Celtics as a counter example. Of their top eight rotation players, only Jason Tatum is 26 or younger and he's exactly 26. Three of their top eight are in their 30s. Two of them are over age 34. You think those guys are going to bring the same level of nightly intensity that Oklahoma City is bringing this year? Of course not. When you get to the postseason, two things happen that limit the effectiveness of this hellacious style that Oklahoma City is playing. One, all of the Vets start matching the level of intensity that the young guys bring. Now the young guys are still more athletic, but the gap shrinks as the Vets engage for urgent basketball. And then two, you get to prepare for several days for the matchup and then even within the matchup you get two weeks to try to solve the problem. Simple example. Last year the Thunder were also a dominant forcing turnovers, get out and transition type of team. In four regular season matchups against the Mavs, they forced 16 turnovers per game and scored 24.3 points off of those turnovers in the regular season. In the four losses to Dallas in the postseason, they only forced 14 turnovers per game and they only scored 18 points off of them, more than six points less. That makes a substantial difference when you're splitting tiny margins between two great teams. The problem they present, the confuse, the confusion, the chaos, the transition attack, the effectiveness goes down in the postseason because the Vets are more up for it and teams are more prepared for it. So the question is, how good are the Thunder really? They're awesome. They're top tier contender. I think they're the second most likely to win the title. But the reality of who they are as a team is somewhere between what they were last year against Dallas and what they are now somewhere in the middle there. And I think that that puts them firmly below the Boston Celtics. I think the biggest problem they'll face in the postseason is role players making shots. Isaiah Joe was the only player to hit 40% of his threes against Dallas last year. K's on Wallace, Jalen Williams, Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren, that's Jay Lynn Williams, backup center, Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins and chet Holmgren all shot 33% or worse in that series from three. When they've lost games. This year it's been a similar issue. The offense bogs down. Nobody but SGA can hit a shot now. To be clear, if they shoot the ball well across the board, their defense is so good they'll win the title. I'm just skeptical that they'll shoot the ball well enough. They're 17th and 3 point percentage this year. Their bottom 10 in spot up efficiency. According to synergy, teams are going to pack the paint. They're going to dare other guys to make shots and shay to try to score a million points. That is the one Thing that I think makes them a lot more vulnerable than their record would lead you to believe, if that makes sense. Moving on to our second tier, I'm calling this the appropriate fear tier. These are teams that have pretty high expectations. Like if any of these teams lost a first round series, it would be considered a massive failure. But at the same time, they're obviously aware that Boston and OKC are going to be really tough challenges for them, that it's an uphill climb there. But on the flip side, I think both OKC and Boston should have an appropriate fear of these teams in the reality that they could potentially upset them. I also think all three of these teams are particularly particularly vulnerable to matchups that they probably need to avoid to get where they want to go. Well, I'm actually going to name all three tiers here for an exit just so I can like demonstrate the matchup weakness. The three teams I have in this tier are the Nuggets, the Cavs, and then the Lakers. To me, if the Nuggets see Minnesota, they're probably going to lose. If the Cavs see Boston, I think they're probably going to lose. And if the Lakers see the Nuggets, I think they're probably going to lose. And by the way, we're going to get further into this when we get to the Lakers. They're the one team in this entire list that is like, I don't feel very strongly about because they're just kind of loosely thrown in here because we've just seen so little of them with Luka. We just don't know what they're capable of. We'll talk more about that when we get to the Lakers. Number three, the Denver Nuggets, currently at + 1400 to win the title on DraftKings. One of the best values that I think I see on that list. I gave Denver the nod here over Cleveland for a simple reason. They present an unsolvable problem for everyone in the league, including the Celtics and the Thunder, which is not something that I think the Cavs present. Nicole Jokic is far and away the best player in the world and a guy that none of these teams can really do anything with. Again, we'll talk more about the Cavs in a minute, but I just don't think they present that type of problem. The Nuggets have achieved a similar level of unguardability to what they had in 2023, in large part because Jokic got his jump shot back in a huge way. He's been one of the very best jump shooters in the league this year. Here's a simple stat to demonstrate the difference between this year's Nuggets offense and previous years. This year, the Nuggets have a 126.1 offensive rating with Nicole Jokic on the floor. Last year that number was 122.4, so a substantial drop there. Even the year they won the title, it was only 124.2. Think about how crazy that is. The Nuggets are scoring two points better per 100 possessions than they did the year they won the title with Nikola Jokic on the floor, even with less shooting around him than ever before. The main weakness with Denver is their defense. They're 16th in defensive rating, 28th in transition defense according to cleaning the glass, 12th and half court defense, 17th in clutch defense. They also give up the fifth most points per game in the paint and the seventh most made threes per game. So that's obviously where the hole is right now. It's a similar idea to what we were talking about with okc. This is an older veteran team that isn't going to bring the same level of intensity night to night. The Nuggets will be a better defense when they get to the postseason. The question is how much better will they be good enough? But if they can leverage their defense enough to unlock their borderline unguardable offense with Jokic, they absolutely can win the whole thing. And that's why I had them all the way up at number three again. I do worry about them for that Minnesota matchup, though. That's one that I think they're yet to overcome and have some serious issues with number four, the Cleveland Cavaliers. They're currently at plus 700 to win the title according to DraftKings. This is a really, really good basketball team by every measure, right? They're producing similar levels of insane offense to what Denver's doing, and they're a very respectable defense, albeit not in the same stratosphere as Boston and okc. I think part of the reason why they're still undervalued by a lot of people is that Darius Garland and Evan Mobley kind of have a reputation, right? They they appeared to be the weak points in their previous playoff exits. I just think both of those guys are substantially better players now, especially Garland, who's become one of my favorite players to watch in the league and has a remarkable ability to generate dribble penetration. The main reasons I'm lower on the Cavs than most people are is one they also rely a good amount on forcing turnovers and getting out in transition, which like we talked about earlier, can be less effective when you get to May and June and then two, they shot the ball preposterously well to start the year. I remember at one point a month or so back I looked and I was like, oh my God, they're shooting 45% on transition threes. Like that's insane. Since January 12th, the Cavs are 11th in three point percentage and as their hot shooting has come back a bit, their defense has slipped. They're now only 11th in defense in that span, 12th in points off of opponent turnovers in that span, and they're just 11 and 6 in their last 17 games, which is really good. I just don't view them as the type of world beating team that they were early in the year when they were just making every damn three point shot they're taking. I personally think the Cavs are destined for a conference finals loss to the Boston Celtics, and I think they're capable of losing to an Indiana or a Milwaukee or a New York in Round two, although I'd favor them over all three of those teams. The case, if you're the case for Cleveland beating Boston is having home court advantage, jumping up two oh, and then stealing game three or game four in Boston and just putting them too far behind the eight ball to be able to come back and win that series. But we've just seen time and time again, even as recently as their last matchup, Boston just gets great shots and if it wasn't for a Donovan Mitchell heater in a game where Jaylen Brown didn't even play, they would have been owing three against the Celtics this year. It just doesn't seem like a team that I think they can overcome. Number five, the Los Angeles Lakers plus 1800 on DraftKings right now to win the title again. I'm kind of just throwing them in here at the bottom of this tier because we really don't know how good they're going to be. I've seen a lot of strong opinions about how bad the Lakers are going to be and it's just not based on anything we've actually seen. Every other team we're going to cover today has. We've seen a lot of what they're going to be. Right? Everything with the Lakers is conjecture. I do think their offense is going to be absolutely amazing. That's not something worth overthinking. It's arguably the best combination of shot creation and play finishing talent that we've seen since the 2018 Warriors. The two primary shot creators in LeBron and Luca are two of the best playoff shot creators we've ever seen who thrive in the physicality of that environment. They also require very similar types of defenders, which I think will test the defensive depth of teams at the forward spot. I would recommend not overthinking the offense. They're going to score a million points. Defense is where it gets tricky. The lakers had an 11 and 2 stretch right before Luca joined the team where they were literally the number one defense in the league and they put forth several impressive defensive efforts against teams like Boston, the Knicks, the Clippers. They have more good defensive players than people think. They turned D'Angelo Russell into Dorian Finney Smith. Jared Vanderbilt is one of the better defenders in the league. LeBron James, as he's become engaged with this new group, has been a very good defender. Gabe is a good defender at the GAR spot. Even a guy like Austin does his job, even though he can get into some situations early in the year where he's asked to guard the other team's best player and it's not a good fit for him. But he as a subsidiary defender can be just fine. They've started doing a much better job of executing JJ Redick's 1 through 5 switching scheme. I think they have a good defensive punch that's been clearly demonstrated over the course of the last month. But you're now adding in 40 ish minutes of Luka Doncic in the playoffs and he's a guy that can be downright damaging to a defense in certain matchups, specifically teams that can really space the floor. It will be J.J. redick's responsibility to try to find ways to deploy him properly in each playoff matchup. So here's the big question. With Luca in the picture, will the Lakers be a terrible defense, an average defense, or a great defense? I don't think they'll be great. It's too much of a downgrade getting 40 minutes of Luka on instead of two way wings, right? But I don't think they'll be terrible either. Like I was arguing with Carson Breber from Nerd Sesh on their show the other day and like he thinks they're going to be a bottom 10 defense. I disagree. I think they're going to be a middle 10 defense. Like they have too many good defensive players to just be a bad defensive team. But if they can get to the point where they're an upper middle team, like in that 11 to 15 range on the defensive end of the floor, that's where I think they have a good enough offense that they can be a legitimate championship contender. My main concerns are matchup related. I think they really match up well with OKC. Lou Dort can only guard one of Luka and LeBron and the Lakers are just so much better, bigger and stronger on the perimeter. I think it's a real advantage for them. I also think Luka and LeBron are great counters to Oklahoma City's aggressive turnover forcing defense. Like they can get the ball across the court to guys that get their defense into rotation. But I think they match up really poorly with Denver and really poorly with Boston. Denver because they will have a world of trouble with Jokic and Boston because they'll be able to actually space the floor enough to where Luca's lack of lateral quickness will be a huge problem. But even within the context of those matchups or the OKC matchup or matchups with teams we have further down on this list, I don't really have a strong opinion on anything because we just need to see more of this new look Lakers team playing basketball Last note on the Lakers, two injuries talked about this the other day after they lost to the Jazz. If they lose Jackson Hayes, if they lose a Dorian Finney Smith, they could be in a real, a real rough spot because all of a sudden they're going to have to play Vando or Christian Coloco or Alex Len at all times. And if one of those guys is on the floor, it allows teams to park a rim protector under the basket, make them a jump shooting team which can bog down their offense. So they kind of have a narrow matchup matchup kind of pathway. And they kind of have a narrow injury pathway. But I, I don't overthink it. They're going to score a million points. They've been a good defense for a while. I do believe they're a legitimate championship contender. The question is where? And we'll have a better idea of that once we get deeper into the season. Welcome to My Legacy. I'm Martin Luther King III and together with my wife, Andrea Waters King, and our dear friends Mark and Craig Kilburger, we explore the personal journeys that shape extraordinary lives.
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Each week we'll sit down with inspiring.
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Figures like David Oyelo, Mel Robbins, Martin.
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Sheen, Dr. Sanjay Gupta and Billy Porter.
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And their plus one, their ride or.
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Die as they share stories never heard.
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Before about their remarkable journey. Listen to My legacy on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is My Legacy. Something about Mary Poppins.
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Something about Mary Poppins. Exactly.
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I'm A.J. jacobs, and I am an author and a journalist, and I tend to get obsessed with stuff. And my current obsession is puzzles. And that has given birth to my podcast, the Puzzler. Dressing. Dressing.
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French dressing.
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Exactly.
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Our brand new season features special guests like Chuck Bryant, Mayim Bialik, Julie Bowen, Sam Sanders, Joseph Gordon Levitt, and lots more. Listen to the Puzzler every day on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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That's awful. And I should have seen it coming. It was a moment that should have broken me, but just because of how I was raised and my bullishness and arrogance to want to be great hardened me, it gave me a platform to be so singularly focused on greatness. We all have moments like this. Something happens that's supposed to break us, but it's in these moments that we discover what we're really made of. I promise you, if anyone knows this, it's me. I'm Ashlyn Harris.
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Mary Kay McBrayer
I'm Mary Kay McBrayer, host of the podcast the Greatest True Crime Stories Ever Told. Join me every week as I tell some of the most enthralling true crime stories about women who are not just victims, but heroes or villains, or often somewhere in between. Listen to the Greatest True crime Stories Ever told on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Onto our third tier. I'm gonna start moving a little bit faster through teams now because we got a bunch to get to. This, to me, is the high variance tier. These are teams with real upside, real potential to win the title, but that also have glaring weaknesses that could get them beat early. These are teams that if they lost in the first round, I wouldn't be very surprised. But if they made it to the finals, I wouldn't be very surprised either. They all have huge strengths and huge weaknesses, starting with number six, the New York Knicks at +1000 to win the title on DraftKings. They're the second best offense in the league this year, led by Jalen Brunson in superior play, finishing to just about everyone in the league. OG, McHale and Cat are all just absolutely lethal if you give them an advantage. They also Have a brilliant transition attack. They don't force a ton of turnovers or get a ton of stops, but when they do, they'll get up, down, up the floor like a blur, getting great shots. They've been a mediocre defense all year, though. They're 18th in defensive rating. Absolutely brutal against the top teams. They're 24th in defensive rating against teams in the top 10 in point differential. And they're just five and eight in those games. And it's the same story every time. Team is just picking on catching, picking on Jalen Brunson, sometimes both at the same time. And they just get their defense in rotation and they get great shots. They give up the highest opponent 3 point percentage in the league and their 20th in points in the paint allowed per game. And we haven't even got to the real issue facing them, which is that they appear utterly incapable of getting buckets or stops against the Boston Celtics. Their offense and their defense falls apart against them. I just think it's inevitable that Boston beats New York if they ever run into him in the postseason. Their only hope is that Mitchell Robinson comes back and gives them a viable defensive look that can work against the top teams in the league. The reason why I say they have real upside, though, is pretty simple. There are teams that I think give Boston issues. The next team on this list is an example. All it takes is Boston getting upset, and suddenly the Knicks look like a. A team that has real potential to get out of the conference. So they obviously have that. That chance there. I just. I just don't think that they can get through Boston if they run into them. Number seven, the Milwaukee Bucks. Plus 3,000 to win the title on DraftKings. Much more of a threat now that Kyle Kuzma is in the picture. I think he gives the Bucks a much more physically imposing front line. The interesting thing for me with the Bucks is I think they're the team that gives the Celtics the most issues in the conference. They've consistently given them issues over the last few years because they can protect the rim well, they can bait Boston into jump shooting, and Giannis is just this indomitable force, right? But they're an interesting team because they're just as likely to lose in the first round to somebody as they are to even make it to a Boston matchup, which, again, is kind of the theme for this tier. Again, these are high variance teams. Wouldn't be surprised if they lost in the first round, Wouldn't be surprised if they made it to the Finals. The scary Thing for the Bucks is they've been frankly terrible against the top teams in the league this year. They won the big game against Oklahoma City in the in season tournament final and that was an impressive win. That's the one you cling to for upside. But they are just two and 12 this year against teams in the top 10 in point differential, in bottom four in both offense and defense. In those matchups. Number eight, the Minnesota Timberwolves plus 6,000. The Timberwolves are an interesting team to me because they have these obvious gaping flaws on the offensive end of the floor which would lead you to believe that they could lose to anyone. And again, that like we talked about, that's the theme of this tier. But the reason why I have the Wolves so high has a lot to do with their playoff run last year and what they did to OKC the other night. They have the ability to ratchet up their physical intensity in a way that a lot of teams really struggle to match. They have so many like top tier defensive players that can really make opponents uncomfortable. And you get to the playoffs and the officials let you get away with being more handsy and grabby and it just, it just is a huge advantage for Minnesota. I also think the Wolves match up really well with Denver and okc, which bodes well for them as just being a threat to upset them. I think they're actually more vulnerable against a team like the Lakers because they wouldn't be able to guard Luka or LeBron just because they can toss Jaden McDaniels around. Most of their perimeter guys are a little too thin. But yeah, like Minnesota is an interesting team because like they could easily get beaten the first round by their offense falls apart. But like I wouldn't be stunned if they beat OKC or if they beat Denver and went on a run and just started mauling everybody with their defense. And Nas Reed is playing so damn well and like they're just, they just, they just look to me as a team that's more of a playoff threat than a regular season threat. Then lastly in this tier, the minute The Memphis Grizzlies +3000 the metrics peg Memphis is an upper tier team. They're fifth in offense, seventh in defense, second in rebounding. They're very, very good regular season team, but their offense just has a tendency to bog down against the good teams. They're just 18th in spot up efficiency. Just a 109.7 offensive rating in matchups against the top 10 point differentials in the league. According to Cleaning the glass and they're just 610 in those matchups. Same sort of story that consistently happens there. They've also struggled in the clutch where teams just pack the paint. It becomes kind of a shot making contest with John Moran and Jaren Jackson and it turns into a lot of difficult shots. They just haven't been able to have the same level of success against the best teams in the league that they did against the rest of their schedule. That's pretty typical for young athletic teams, right? Their success will be very matchup dependent. I could see them upsetting teams like Denver or LA because of their lack of rim protection, but they're the sort of team that if they ran into like the Mavs with a healthy Anthony Davis or Minnesota teams that can really pack the paint with length, I could see them losing in the first round. So once again, sticking to the theme of that tier, our fourth tier, these are the punchers, chance teams. These are teams that are most likely first round exits, but you can at least see a viable pathway towards them making a deep playoff run if a bunch of things go their way. Number 10, the Golden State warriors plus 3000 is a very good defensive team with a lot of perimeter speed. Two dominant front court defenders in Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green. But their offense is limited and it can really grind to a halt sometimes, especially when Steph is having a rough night. But it really is this simple. To me. It doesn't matter what the metrics are. If you find yourself in a playoff series and it's Draymond and it's Steph and it's Jimmy on the floor, they're going to be really tough to deal with. And if those guys dig deep, like if Steph has a throwback, throwback playoff run like what he had in 2022, or if Jimmy Butler has a throwback playoff run like he had in 2023, they can absolutely beat some teams and make some noise. Number 11, the Dallas Mavericks, plus 3,500. Feels like their legitimate championship upside was taken off with the departure of Luka Doncic. I loved this roster. I would have probably had them right up around that like, number five spot if they had kept Luca. That's the same guy who got to got to them, got them within three wins of the title last year. Right. But it is possible to see a tiny pathway for them this year on the strength of their defense and a surgical playoff run from a guy like Kyrie Irving. We haven't even seen what AD will look like next to Derek Lively. He's a substantial better defender than Daniel Gafford. They could be frightening. Like they they might not even make the playoffs with all the injuries, but if they somehow get in and they get a first round series and AD's healthy and Derek Lively is healthy and Kyrie Irving's healthy and Klay Thompson is healthy, PJ Washington's healthy, we'd be foolish to say that they can't beat a top team and go on a run. They're going to be an absolute pain in the ass to deal with, but I think it's far more likely that they lose in the first round. And then number 12, the Indiana Pacers plus 13,000 to win the title on DraftKings right now. Real long shot there. So some value if you believe in the Pacers. They have the fifth best record in the league since 12-13-28, seventh in offense and 11th in defense. I just don't think any of their units have the level of resilience necessary to be a legit contender. Like I've seen Siakam and Halliburton struggle to create shots too often, I've seen their defense fall apart too often. And they are terrible rebounding team. So like I just don't think they have any like specific unit that's good enough to really carry them. But they won the war of attrition last year. While every team broke down around them, they just kept trucking along. They even held leads late in the conference finals against Boston. They're a good ball pressure team. They're a good transition offense. They can keep games close and wear you down. It's impossible not to at least consider them a threat after they made the conference finals last year. Number 13, our last team in this tier, the Los Angeles Clippers. They're plus 3,500 to win the title. Tons of perimeter speed, guys who can defend both on and off the ball. James Harden was an all star this year for his shot creation ability. If you get Zubach has turned himself into like a super dependable starting center in this league. Norman Powell is having a career year and Kawhi's back now. But any theoretical championship upside for the Clippers comes down to Kawhi reaching his peak and he just hasn't looked like that guy yet. Can't write them off because if Kawhi does get back to that level, this roster is absolutely good enough to hoist the trophy. But we all know that that's just a very narrow possibility for that, for something like that to happen. Moving on to our last tier, these are teams that think they can compete for a championship but that I can't actually see a viable path for them. These are teams like if I even just saw them playing in the conference finals, I would be absolutely stunned. Number 14, the Houston Rockets. Plus 6,000 to win the title. They just don't have the shot creation to hang with the top teams. Even just losing Fred Van Vliet caused the bottom to fall out for him. They're 2 and 6 since he got hurt after being like utterly dominant with him. Before that. They're even struggling against bad teams in that stretch. I think it's highly likely that they lose in the first round. And even if they catch like a really favorable matchup and like beat a bad playing team in the first round, I still think they're certain to lose in the second round. Then lastly, number 15, the Phoenix Suns. Plus 12,000 to win the title. Real long shot odds there. Just a horrific defense. A horrific rebounding team that doesn't score the ball nearly well enough to be a threat to do anything. Even with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker on the floor together this year they have only a 1:15.6 offensive rating. That's more than 10 points worse than the Nuggets are with Nicole Jokic, for example, per 100 possessions. The roster is full of guys who probably shouldn't be in the rotation on a serious basketball team. I think they're destined for a plan or first round loss and probably completely blowing up the roster when they get to this summer. That's it for our contender rankings. Also, just to give you guys an idea of what I thought were the best values in terms of betting odds, Denver at plus 1400. I think they got a real shot to win it this year. That's a, that's a great price. In the Minnesota Timberwolves again, plus 6,000 for a team that matches up really well with the top teams in the league and just has this otherworldly physical defense potential when you get to the postseason. I just think that's an interesting price to be able to jump on for value as well. All right, guys, that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. We're gonna take a little break for this last little break before we get into the home stretch of the season. Wednesday night, the Lakers play the Hornets. We'll be breaking that game down on three Thursday morning. I will see you guys then. The volume. What's up guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting hoops tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it.
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Mary Kay McBrayer
Mary Kay McBrayer, host of the podcast the Greatest True Crime Stories Ever Told. This season explores women from the 19th century to now. Women who were murderers and scammers, but also women who were photojournalists, lawyers, writers and more. This podcast tells more than just the brutal, gory details of horrific acts. I delve into the good, the bad, the difficult, and all the nuance I can find because these are the stories that we need to know to understand the intersection of society, justice and the fascinating workings of the human psyche. Join me every week as I tell some of the most enthralling true crime stories about women who are not just victims, but heroes or villains, or often somewhere in between. Listen to the greatest true crime stories ever told on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Bobby Bones
Calling all Yellowstone fans, let's go to work. Join Bobby on the official Yellowstone Podcast for exclusive cast interviews, behind the scenes insights, and a deep dive into the themes that have made Yellowstone a cultural phenomenon.
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Bobby Bones
I protector of my life. Listen to the Official Yellowstone Podcast now on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.