Hoops Tonight — Why Luka Doncic & Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are My #2 & #3 Players in the NBA | Lakers x Thunder

Host: Jason (The Volume)
Date: September 12, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Jason counts down his top NBA player rankings, focusing on the contentious debate between Luka Doncic (#2) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA, #3) for the 2025 season. He breaks down their skill sets, performances, and projected impact, drawing on both statistical evidence and nuanced basketball analysis. Jason also discusses the criteria for his rankings, contextualizes recent seasons, and highlights both players’ strengths and weaknesses, especially in the context of leading a championship-caliber team.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Ranking Philosophy & Criteria

• Jason clarifies the purpose: This list is "not who did the most last season, but who I believe will be the best player to lead your team from October through June this coming season" (03:00).
• The analysis purposely separates individual skill from team context—players are examined "in a vacuum" (04:00).

The Luka Doncic vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Debate

Last Season Recap & Perception

• SGA’s 2024–25: Won both regular season and Finals MVP, led the Oklahoma City Thunder to a title, and had an incredible statistical season (33 PPG, 64% TS).
• Luka’s 2024–25: Struggled with injuries and conditioning, played only 50 games split between Dallas and the Lakers, and was outplayed in the playoffs. Jason is blunt: "There's no way to describe it other than to use the word embarrassing." (38:32)
• Despite narratives and fan pushback, Jason’s rankings are not based solely on what happened last season but on projected performance.

Scoring Comparison

• SGA: Averaged 33 PPG with elite efficiency, 49 30-point games, 13 40-point games, and 3 50-point games (08:00).
• Luka: Just one season prior, averaged 34 PPG, 50 30-point games, 13 40-point games, 2 50-point games, and a 73-point game, with strong short-range scoring (08:50).
• Jason argues there is "no scoring gap between Shea and Luka" going into the season—both can produce at similar levels if healthy and in the right role (11:50).

Playmaking & Offensive Impact

• The key differentiator: Luka’s playmaking is on another level.
  • SGA: 21 career games (including playoffs) with 10+ assists
  • Luka: 168 such games—"Eight times as many" (13:15)
• Jason explains, "Luka is just miles and miles ahead of [SGA] as a playmaker and offensive engine... Luka's a better offensive player than Shea." (15:00)
• Detailed breakdown of Luka's ability to create advantages and how it impacted playoff series (especially the 2024 Thunder vs. PJ Washington incident, 14:20).

Defense & Limitations

• Neither player is elite defensively: both are good in passing lanes and as playmakers (Luka: 1.8 SPG, SGA: 1.7 SPG in 2024–25).
• "Where SGA makes up ground here...is more situational. Defensively, I find Luka to be much more susceptible to switch attacking than Shea is" (17:30).
• SGA is a better on-ball and switch defender. Luka’s perimeter defense and fatigue have been exploited in the last two playoff exits.

Why Luka Gets the Edge

• Offensive upside is decisive: "They are the only two guys that can bring transcendently great scoring and transcendently great playmaking and advantage creation to the table" (18:15).
• Luka’s defense and fitness are his main question marks, but Jason projects an improvement there, giving Luka the #2 spot.

Player-by-Player Deep Dives

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: #3

2024–25 Key Stats:

• 76 games | 33 PPG | 5 RPG | 6 APG | 52% FG | 38% 3PT | 90% FT | 64% TS | 2.7 stocks/game

Strengths:

• Elite scorer and Finals MVP. "Fueled by his incredible scoring ability" (22:57).
• Best pick-and-roll scorer in the league by shooting percentage and volume (23:40).
• Deadly short-range and mid-range shot-maker; "51.4% of his two-point jump shots inside 17ft [in playoffs]—a big reason he was dependable in clutch moments" (27:50).
• Gets to the line: 8.8 FTA per game (second in NBA, 31:20).
• Defensive playmaker: disrupts passing lanes, posts solid block and steal numbers for a guard.

Weaknesses:

• Not a top-tier playmaker; wired as a scorer. "At many points...he hurt his team on offense by just coming out guns blazing as a shooter, kind of overdoing it" (30:20).
• Inconsistent game management, particularly in half-court offense and high-stakes games (32:30).
• Oklahoma City’s half-court offensive performance swung largely on SGA’s decision-making in wins vs. losses—an area for growth as his team’s talent advantage narrows in coming years.

Clutch Memorable Moment:

• "Game for the NBA Finals, literally one of the most pivotal shots in the entire playoff run...hits a short step back jump shot along the left baseline after pushing off Aaron Neesmith." (26:25)

Luka Doncic: #2

2024–25 Key Stats:

• 50 games | 28 PPG | 8 RPG | 8 APG | 45% FG | 37% 3PT | 78% FT | 59% TS | 2.2 stocks/game

Strengths:

• S-tier scorer and the premier playmaker in the league—"the best pick and roll passer in the NBA... playmaking is S-tier" (44:00).
• Plays with strength and skill, uses his body to initiate contact and control the game.
• Projected improvement: "I've seen two very important things from Luka so far in EuroBasket—he’s far more explosive athletically...and he's retained most of his strength" (39:55).
• High basketball IQ, excellent at reading defenses, creating advantages, and setting up teammates.
• Better in-shape Luka expected: "We are going to get the best season of his career from him this year on both ends of the floor" (41:00).

Weaknesses:

• Conditioning and fatigue issues last year, "came into camp fat...worst defensive series of his career" (38:37).
• Defensive liability, especially guarding quick perimeter players—main area to watch for improvement.
• Short-range shot-making dipped after trade to the Lakers (42:00); needs to regain that efficiency for peak performance.

Notable Blunt Moment:

• "His last season was an embarrassing step backwards for a player that had had one of the most impressive starts to a career in the history of the NBA. It was embarrassing. There's no way around it..." (38:32)

Projections:

• Expecting a "resurgence in mobility" and shot-making; expects best offensive season yet.
• "He doesn't need to become an all-world defensive player, he just simply needs to be able to slide his feet and anticipate better to the point where he can flatten out more of those drives" (47:10).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On SGA’s improvement needs:
  "With each passing year I expect him to get better at understanding the importance of his floor game on a night-to-night basis." — Jason (33:00)

• On Luka’s upside:
  "I think him and Jokic are the two best offensive engines in the sport...the only two in the entire league that can say that." — Jason (18:15)

• On Luka’s disappointing year:
  "There's no way to describe it other than to use the word embarrassing." (38:32)

• On scoring debate:
  "I view Luka Doncic heading into this coming season as every bit the scoring talent that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is, if not a little bit better as he demonstrated just one year prior." (11:50)

• On playmaking gap:
  "SJA has 21 games in his entire career...where he logged at least 10 assists...Luka's done it 168 times. It's pretty clean math actually. That's eight times as many." (13:15)

• On Luka’s expected leap:
  "We are going to get the best season of his career from him this year on both ends of the floor." (41:00)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Episode theme/ranking criteria: 03:00–04:00
• Luka vs. SGA—Opening debate: 04:30–12:30
• Scoring comparison, statistical breakdowns: 08:00–11:50
• Playmaking and advantage creation: 12:00–15:20
• Defense and player tiers: 16:00–18:30
• SGA deep dive: 22:57–34:29
• Luka deep dive: 38:30–50:30
• Closing thoughts/projected improvements for Luka: 44:00–49:00

Summary

Jason delivers a comprehensive, evidence-driven debate for ranking Luka Doncic as the #2 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the #3 player in his NBA projections for 2025. He highlights not just production, but also the ways both players create offense, manage games, and handle clutch situations. While SGA had the accolades last season, Luka’s unique blend of elite scoring and transcendent playmaking, paired with expectations of improved conditioning, give him the edge—provided he addresses defensive and fitness concerns. SGA is recognized for his reliability and scoring efficiency, with growth still left as a floor general. Both are acknowledged as true superstars, capable of leading contending teams and shaping the NBA for years to come.