You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Here we go. It is a Tuesday. Ready to roll. Joel Klatt, Nick Wright, it's the Herd. Wherever you may be, however you may be listening, thanks for making us J. Mac and I part of your. You know, J. Mac, I was thinking about something this morning. An overarching theme to start the show for the first 10 to 12 minutes. And I eat basically the same breakfast. I have the same routine every day. I get up, I have a strong coffee, I'll get on the treadmill, may have an English muffin, have a smoothie before the show. And I do. I live as much as everybody's searching for new stuff. If I, for instance, want to watch sports on tv, I go to NBC, Fox, cbs. I know where to go. I don't go to Netflix. I don't go to Hulu. I go to the standard places where I've always watched sports. And I have this theory about the NFL that we think you never know who's going to win these games. But I believe for two reasons, the NFL is going to get starting. Three years ago, you're seeing a trend much more predictable. And that's my jumping off point today is this. So when I make NFL predictions now, I have two more tweaks to my predictions. I'm always looking for new teams to make the playoffs. And the one team I've looked at is Joe Burrow is going to make the playoffs, right? So I want to go to a quote from the Washington Post about a general manager talking about the Bengals and he talks about Mike Brown and he says it's the same old Mike Brown B.S. said one general manager, condition of anonymity to avoid violating the NFL tampering rules. It's the same crap that's been going on since Boomer Esiason and Carson Palmer. History always repeats itself. And I've said this before, if Carson Palmer would have gotten like a Sean Payton or an Andy Reid, we would consider Carson Palmer a top four or five quarterback ever. And I worry that Joe Burrow, same organization, same ownership, it's going to be the same thing. If Joe Burrow gets an Andy Reid, he's hoisting the trophies, not Patrick Mahomes. And I really firmly believe that. So I've thought about the Bengals a lot because I'm always looking for new playoff teams, right? Because there's like seven a year, right? Well, not actually last three years. It keeps coming down. Why is that happening? So we have many camps, OTAs and the first week or so of training camps. So I have new information. So I looked over my predictions. I've got one more tweak. This will not be the official tweak, but I looked over my predictions that I made a few months ago. So in the AFC for instance, Josh Allen's going to win the division for as long as he's in his prime. The Patriots are the safest double your win total bet in the league in five years. Dolphins, Jets, I wouldn't change a thing. AFC north prediction Ravens are the class of the OR of this division and I mean really one of the top three organizations in the league. I think because of all the noise around the Bengals, all because of ownership, I'd probably move the Bengals out. Steelers, Browns just not good enough. AFC south is weak. Texans are going to win the division. They have arguably the best coach and absolutely the best quarterback in the AFC West. Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders. If I move Cincinnati out because I predicted they'll make the playoffs, I would put the Broncos in. I mean they added Greenlaw, Bufanga, Evan Ingram. They're over under on DraftKings it's nine and a half wins. So if I was to make an AFC west prediction, my my final big tweak. I get the Bengals out and I'd move Sean Payton. I'd get noise out and I'd get a guy I've relied on for 25 years in the league, Sean Payton in. If I go to the NFC it's the same basic theme. I like most of my picks. NFC East Eagles Commanders Commanders class of the NFC east not close Eagles Commanders class of the division Giants, Cowboys of mess in the NFC north here's where I would make my change for the same reason I get the Bengals out I probably because I think the Bears have been very noisy so far in minicamp, OTA and training camp. Move the Bears out and the packers in again noise out like the Bengals reliable Sean Payton, Green Bay packers in Vikings JJ McCarthy feel like a 4th place team or a 3rd place team in the NFC South. Weakest division in my opinion in football. Bucks class of the division, best gm, best quarterback and you know I'll take the Bucks NFC west again I I'm not as high on the Niners as J. Mack. I go Rams, Seahawks. The Niners have an easy schedule. I think they're old. I think the roster has holes. I think they wanted to keep Greenlawn Hufonga. I do think Robert Sala coming in helps. So again like the AFC where I moved The Bengals out, Sean Payton, I'd probably move in. I would probably move the noisy Bears out and the packers in. But it's very interesting because I have spent as my staff knows, I spend considerable amount of time trying to find new playoff teams. And if I made these two changes, I'd only have two new playoff teams. New England in the AFC and Seattle in the nfc. Well, wait a minute, I can't do that. Or can I? So there's more games than ever, right? They added a game and they're going to add an 18th game and the leagues become more quarterback centric. So those two things in my opinion are making the NFL a bit more like the NBA. I talked about this last year. The bottom of the league is really bad and feels miles away from the top of the league. You're seeing more spreads that are like 9, 10, 11, 12, 13. It feels like to me, last couple of years that was always a college number. An NFL mismatch was like eight, eight and a half. Now you're getting double digit spreads a lot, it feels like to me. So last year there were only four new playoff teams. That's tied for the fewest in 20 years. We're on a three year trend of fewer new playoff teams. And I believe as much as everybody, myself included, wants change, the NFL is going to become the NBA. You kind of know, I mean, go look at the afc. I was looking at this this morning. If you go look at the afc, who's made the divisional round the last two years? Oh, Ravens, Bills, Kansas City, and it feel like it's the same teams every year. So I my take is everybody says they want change. I think going forward when we go to an 18th game, and I've said this is the danger of extending the NFL season two more games from several years ago and making the league incredibly quarterback centric, you're going to have a clear top and a really ugly bottom and it's going to become very predictable. So I don't think we're going to have six and seven new playoff teams this year. I am struggling outside of maybe Joe Burrow and the Niners. I'm struggling to find new playoff teams now last year because of Bo Nix who was exceptional as a rookie, and Jaden Daniel, Broncos in Washington. Whoa. Surprised us. But that was a really good quarterback draft class. This wasn't. And from that I'll talk about another part of football that we thought we were going to see major changes in. And I think the opposite is true. So when the College Football Playoff was Created. Here's what you heard. Oh, finally the little guy can compete. I mean, when you only have four teams, it's always going to be the big dogs. So there was this supposition, this belief you would have a lot of little guys that would have a chance to knock off the big dog. Actually now with teams playing up to 16, 15 college games, same thing is true in the NFL. The deeper rosters have a much greater advantage. I mean, Ohio State in the playoff was rolling through teams. They just had more good players, they had more NFL bodies. And this morning I looked up the coaches top 25 poll. The first seven teams, Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, Oregon, all made the playoff last year. And 8 and 9 are Bama and LSU football powerhouses where all the new teams, it's the same old same old. In fact, I'll make the argument. In the last 30 years of college football there is only one new top 10 powerhouse, one Oregon. And it took Phil Knight's money and vision, one new program. And by expanding the playoff to 12 teams, 14, 16, that doesn't help the little guy because a team like Arizona State. Cam Scatterboo, great story, but they emptied the tank against Texas. Texas right now has two five star freshman wide receivers. They're like fifth and sixth on the depth chart. They'd start for smu, they'd start for Arizona State, and you'll get the occasional upset. But when you watched Indiana and Notre Dame playing the playoff, did you think the little guy had a fighting chance? That thing was over. Two series in. Did you watch the SMU game? So the old system, which Boise State could have one big bowl game against Oklahoma, Chris Peterson uses a trick play and they knock off the Sooners and the season ends in Boise, Idaho on a great note. Unbelievable TV game. Everybody in Idaho feels good. Those days are over. You're going to all those teams that have not, you're going to end their season with losses and often ugly losses. So this idea that the NFL you extend, extend the season, you expand the playoffs in college football, you expand it. No, folks, everybody is trying to engineer parody and it doesn't exist. People always separate. Businesses always separate. And so that, that's kind of my, my theme is college football now can have up to 15 games and the NFL is expanding to 17. And now they're going to expand to 18 games. Many believe next year it's not going to help the little guy, it's going to help the deeper roster, the richer organizations, the better quarterbacks, and a handful of great owners. All right, J. Mac, I know that could be a downer, but my guess is you basically watch football on the same three channels you did 20 years ago, and you also eat the same thing for breakfast most days. And that. We're all creatures of habit and everybody's seeking new stuff. But, you know, in New York, if you could get a ticket to a concert, for a lot of people, it'd be a Billy Joel concert, which wasn't the case 20 years ago for New Yorkers.
