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Colin Cowherd
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Jason McIntyre
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Jason McIntyre
Thanks for listening to the Herd podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weekday on Fox Sports radio at noon to 3 Eastern, 9am to noon Pacific. Find your local station for the herd@foxsportsradio.com or stream us live every day on the iHeartRadio app by searching Fox Sports Radio or FSR now let's get this party started.
Colin Cowherd
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Here we go. It is a Tuesday. Ready to roll. Joel Klatt, Nick Wright, it's the Herd. Wherever you may be, however you may be listening, thanks for making us J. Mac and I part of your. You know, J. Mac, I was thinking about something this morning. An overarching theme to start the show for the first 10 to 12 minutes. And I eat basically the same breakfast. I have the same routine every day. I get up, I have a strong coffee, I'll get on the treadmill, may have an English muffin, have a smoothie before the show. And I do. I live as much as everybody's searching for new stuff. If I, for instance, want to watch sports on tv, I go to NBC, Fox, cbs. I know where to go. I don't go to Netflix. I don't go to Hulu. I go to the standard places where I've always watched sports. And I have this theory about the NFL that we think you never know who's going to win these games. But I believe for two reasons, the NFL is going to get starting. Three years ago, you're seeing a trend much more predictable. And that's my jumping off point today is this. So when I make NFL predictions now, I have two more tweaks to my predictions. I'm always looking for new teams to make the playoffs. And the one team I've looked at is Joe Burrow is going to make the playoffs, right? So I want to go to a quote from the Washington Post about a general manager talking about the Bengals and he talks about Mike Brown and he says it's the same old Mike Brown B.S. said one general manager, condition of anonymity to avoid violating the NFL tampering rules. It's the same crap that's been going on since Boomer Esiason and Carson Palmer. History always repeats itself. And I've said this before, if Carson Palmer would have gotten like a Sean Payton or an Andy Reid, we would consider Carson Palmer a top four or five quarterback ever. And I worry that Joe Burrow, same organization, same ownership, it's going to be the same thing. If Joe Burrow gets an Andy Reid, he's hoisting the trophies, not Patrick Mahomes. And I really firmly believe that. So I've thought about the Bengals a lot because I'm always looking for new playoff teams, right? Because there's like seven a year, right? Well, not actually last three years. It keeps coming down. Why is that happening? So we have many camps, OTAs and the first week or so of training camps. So I have new information. So I looked over my predictions. I've got one more tweak. This will not be the official tweak, but I looked over my predictions that I made a few months ago. So in the AFC for instance, Josh Allen's going to win the division for as long as he's in his prime. The Patriots are the safest double your win total bet in the league in five years. Dolphins, Jets, I wouldn't change a thing. AFC north prediction Ravens are the class of the OR of this division and I mean really one of the top three organizations in the league. I think because of all the noise around the Bengals, all because of ownership, I'd probably move the Bengals out. Steelers, Browns just not good enough. AFC south is weak. Texans are going to win the division. They have arguably the best coach and absolutely the best quarterback in the AFC West. Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders. If I move Cincinnati out because I predicted they'll make the playoffs, I would put the Broncos in. I mean they added Greenlaw, Bufanga, Evan Ingram. They're over under on DraftKings it's nine and a half wins. So if I was to make an AFC west prediction, my my final big tweak. I get the Bengals out and I'd move Sean Payton. I'd get noise out and I'd get a guy I've relied on for 25 years in the league, Sean Payton in. If I go to the NFC it's the same basic theme. I like most of my picks. NFC East Eagles Commanders Commanders class of the NFC east not close Eagles Commanders class of the division Giants, Cowboys of mess in the NFC north here's where I would make my change for the same reason I get the Bengals out I probably because I think the Bears have been very noisy so far in minicamp, OTA and training camp. Move the Bears out and the packers in again noise out like the Bengals reliable Sean Payton, Green Bay packers in Vikings JJ McCarthy feel like a 4th place team or a 3rd place team in the NFC South. Weakest division in my opinion in football. Bucks class of the division, best gm, best quarterback and you know I'll take the Bucks NFC west again I I'm not as high on the Niners as J. Mack. I go Rams, Seahawks. The Niners have an easy schedule. I think they're old. I think the roster has holes. I think they wanted to keep Greenlawn Hufonga. I do think Robert Sala coming in helps. So again like the AFC where I moved The Bengals out, Sean Payton, I'd probably move in. I would probably move the noisy Bears out and the packers in. But it's very interesting because I have spent as my staff knows, I spend considerable amount of time trying to find new playoff teams. And if I made these two changes, I'd only have two new playoff teams. New England in the AFC and Seattle in the nfc. Well, wait a minute, I can't do that. Or can I? So there's more games than ever, right? They added a game and they're going to add an 18th game and the leagues become more quarterback centric. So those two things in my opinion are making the NFL a bit more like the NBA. I talked about this last year. The bottom of the league is really bad and feels miles away from the top of the league. You're seeing more spreads that are like 9, 10, 11, 12, 13. It feels like to me, last couple of years that was always a college number. An NFL mismatch was like eight, eight and a half. Now you're getting double digit spreads a lot, it feels like to me. So last year there were only four new playoff teams. That's tied for the fewest in 20 years. We're on a three year trend of fewer new playoff teams. And I believe as much as everybody, myself included, wants change, the NFL is going to become the NBA. You kind of know, I mean, go look at the afc. I was looking at this this morning. If you go look at the afc, who's made the divisional round the last two years? Oh, Ravens, Bills, Kansas City, and it feel like it's the same teams every year. So I my take is everybody says they want change. I think going forward when we go to an 18th game, and I've said this is the danger of extending the NFL season two more games from several years ago and making the league incredibly quarterback centric, you're going to have a clear top and a really ugly bottom and it's going to become very predictable. So I don't think we're going to have six and seven new playoff teams this year. I am struggling outside of maybe Joe Burrow and the Niners. I'm struggling to find new playoff teams now last year because of Bo Nix who was exceptional as a rookie, and Jaden Daniel, Broncos in Washington. Whoa. Surprised us. But that was a really good quarterback draft class. This wasn't. And from that I'll talk about another part of football that we thought we were going to see major changes in. And I think the opposite is true. So when the College Football Playoff was Created. Here's what you heard. Oh, finally the little guy can compete. I mean, when you only have four teams, it's always going to be the big dogs. So there was this supposition, this belief you would have a lot of little guys that would have a chance to knock off the big dog. Actually now with teams playing up to 16, 15 college games, same thing is true in the NFL. The deeper rosters have a much greater advantage. I mean, Ohio State in the playoff was rolling through teams. They just had more good players, they had more NFL bodies. And this morning I looked up the coaches top 25 poll. The first seven teams, Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, Oregon, all made the playoff last year. And 8 and 9 are Bama and LSU football powerhouses where all the new teams, it's the same old same old. In fact, I'll make the argument. In the last 30 years of college football there is only one new top 10 powerhouse, one Oregon. And it took Phil Knight's money and vision, one new program. And by expanding the playoff to 12 teams, 14, 16, that doesn't help the little guy because a team like Arizona State. Cam Scatterboo, great story, but they emptied the tank against Texas. Texas right now has two five star freshman wide receivers. They're like fifth and sixth on the depth chart. They'd start for smu, they'd start for Arizona State, and you'll get the occasional upset. But when you watched Indiana and Notre Dame playing the playoff, did you think the little guy had a fighting chance? That thing was over. Two series in. Did you watch the SMU game? So the old system, which Boise State could have one big bowl game against Oklahoma, Chris Peterson uses a trick play and they knock off the Sooners and the season ends in Boise, Idaho on a great note. Unbelievable TV game. Everybody in Idaho feels good. Those days are over. You're going to all those teams that have not, you're going to end their season with losses and often ugly losses. So this idea that the NFL you extend, extend the season, you expand the playoffs in college football, you expand it. No, folks, everybody is trying to engineer parody and it doesn't exist. People always separate. Businesses always separate. And so that, that's kind of my, my theme is college football now can have up to 15 games and the NFL is expanding to 17. And now they're going to expand to 18 games. Many believe next year it's not going to help the little guy, it's going to help the deeper roster, the richer organizations, the better quarterbacks, and a handful of great owners. All right, J. Mac, I know that could be a downer, but my guess is you basically watch football on the same three channels you did 20 years ago, and you also eat the same thing for breakfast most days. And that. We're all creatures of habit and everybody's seeking new stuff. But, you know, in New York, if you could get a ticket to a concert, for a lot of people, it'd be a Billy Joel concert, which wasn't the case 20 years ago for New Yorkers.
Ad Voice
It's funny you bring that up. I mean, you know, like, I'm. We're very similar in terms of creatures of habit. Like, you know, last week on vacation, I didn't wake up and go on Twitter and see what the news was. But now you're back and, like, that's kind of one of the first things you do, right? You gotta see what's up on sports and what's happening. Yeah, yeah.
Colin Cowherd
I just, I. I think I understand people seeking new. It could be a mayoral race in New York. Everybody wants new and new and new, but in the end, people basically go back. What makes people happy psychologically are certainties and habits. That's what makes you happy. Not waking up every day with no idea what's going on. People, like, want to work out. They want to walk their dog, they want to have their coffee. They want to play Wordle. They want to read the local paper. We are creatures of habit, and we're all seeking, we think football, college and pro. Adding more playoff teams, expanding the playoffs and adding more games. That all benefits the big dog. That all benefits the big that. That benefits Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, the new. The. The Texas. That's who it benefit. Doesn't benefit smu. It benefits the Longhorns.
Ad Voice
I do wonder if, you know, we did. We briefly discussed the packers yesterday. As a team that's going to probably rise up. I'm surprised you're not on the Falcons. I got some really interesting data when we eventually talk about Atlanta and, And I think. Remember when you were on Tennessee earlier this summer and you suddenly backed off, off the Titans? What happened?
Colin Cowherd
Well, I didn't love them. I had them as a wild card team. But when they. Their. Their supposed number one receiver gets hurt, they get rid of him. Now they've got a roster full of number three and four receivers. Cam Ward is acknowledged. You know, they're saying in camp they're struggling. It's become more and more of a wide receiver, quarterback league. They're struggling. I mean, it always feels like they're light offensively so I didn't love them. New England's my guaranteed double your win total team, but I did think Cam Ward would add some electricity. But you know it's CJ Stroud's the best quarterback in the division. CJ Stroud made the playoffs. My guess is CJ Stroud will make the playoffs again this year.
Ad Voice
So just just for the record, your CJ Stroud is a better quarterback right now than Trevor Lawrence, correct?
Colin Cowherd
Yes.
Ad Voice
Okay, I would disagree but.
Colin Cowherd
Well, I did not believe that two years ago. I believe it now. I think C.J. to me, I don't buy he had an off season. Tunzel, the left tackle didn't play well. They were missing two of their top receivers. He had a lot to overcome. I think C.J. stroud's really, really good. Be sure to catch live editions of the Herd, weekdays at noon Eastern, 9am Pacific on Fox Sports Radio, FS1 and.
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The iHeartRadio app hey, this is Jason McIntyre. Join me every weekday morning on my PODC Straight fire with Jason McEntire. This isn't your typical sports pod, pushing the same tired narratives down your throat every day. Straight Fire gives you honest opinions on all the biggest sports headlines, accurate stats to help you win big at the Sportsbook and all the best guests. Do yourself a favor and listen to Straight fire with Jason McIntyre on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Colin Cowherd
Hi, it's Colin. I've been around long enough to know.
Jason McIntyre
Quality when I see it or in this case when I taste it. Tito's Handmade Vodka.
Colin Cowherd
Good stuff.
Jason McIntyre
No flash, no gimmick. Smooth, clean tasting, made the right way.
Colin Cowherd
Okay. I like things that are built to last.
Jason McIntyre
A great team, a well run organization. Same goes for my vodka, Tito's. Made in Austin, Texas. Real care, attention to detail, distinct crisp taste. I was just telling my wife the other day Tito's is the one vodka it has a completely distinct taste. Been my go to for years so.
Colin Cowherd
I like to keep it simple.
Jason McIntyre
Tito's Soda one lime, a lot of ice, Refreshing, easy summer, winter, spring.
Colin Cowherd
Totally versatile.
Jason McIntyre
Always works.
Colin Cowherd
Listen, baseball season's here.
Jason McIntyre
Your team's going to play 162 games. A perfect time to kick back with some Tito's.
Colin Cowherd
It's what I pour.
Jason McIntyre
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Colin Cowherd
You know the big guys.
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Colin Cowherd
And won't break the bank.
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Colin Cowherd
Nick Right, top of next hour. Joel Klatu I, you know, this is a story that's had tentacles. So LeBron James did not show up for the press conference when Lucas signed his new deal. Bronnie James wasn't apparently there either. And my take is we all know the deal here. LeBron is a global superstar. He's like in the Ronaldo Messi level. They play by different rules. If, if LeBron and Savannah and Bronnie were on a yacht in Sant Tropez, I don't have a problem with it. I really don't. We all know that the Lakers drafted him and there was behind the scenes workings on that deal. It's the off season. It just doesn't bother me. And reportedly LeBron called him. That doesn't bother me. What bothers me going forward into this season is that it was okay last year when LeBron often dominated the ball with lumpy Luca. But Luca, and I'm looking at men's health like everybody else in the video clips. Luca is in the best shape of his career since like his rookie year and his second third year in the NBA. And his usage rate, I discovered this morning is the highest in league history. So I didn't have a problem. LeBron sharing the ball a lot with lumpy Luca. That's not what Luka's going to be. This new relation. I would make an argument this Luka in shape. Luka fits better with KD, old KD than old LeBron because LeBron's always had to. You have to reshape your basketball ecosystem with LeBron. He always has the ball in his hands. He doesn't play as well off ball. He's also a great passer, but so is Luca. So the problem with the Lakers Now, Austin, Reeves, LeBron and Luca are all much better with the ball but in shape. Non Lumpy Luca should have the ball 80% of the time. Last year I was fine with sharing. He's been injured in camp, the trades mid season. He worked his way into shape. He just looked big and puffy and lumpy. And a lot of times LeBron was the twitchier athlete. He will not be this year. LeBron's average keeps going down. My, my, my sense is it will go down more this year because he just won't have the ball in his hands much. So the whole thing about LeBron, you know, not showing up for Oppressor or even Bronnie, it doesn't really bother me. I think y', all, I think we all know the game. There are certain athletes, I mean, it was great that Brady was As obsessed as he was. But Aaron Rodgers has a lot of defenders. When he goes to Egypt in the off season, he's got a lot of defenders, teammates like it's Aaron. He's been around. I wouldn't do it, but he's not the first guy to do it. But my take is this year is going to be different. I said this yesterday. I think you're going to see a huge gap in Luke and LeBron on the floor. One will look like a top three player in the league and one will look like he's 40. Good, but not nearly as consistent. And what's going to Happen Statistically is LeBron should not have the ball in his hands like last year. Absolutely not. Lumpy Luca, no problem with it. The Luca I'm seeing on these videos at the presser, Men's Health. That's like year two, three and four Luca, when he led the NBA in usage rate and was virtually unstoppable as a kid. Unstoppable. By the way, here's Rob Polinka, the gm. You know, last week on the new contract form.
Ad Voice
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Colin Cowherd
Just look at how thin in a suit Luca looks compared to last year in a uniform. So he's got a heavy suit on. He looks 30 pounds lighter. And just, just remember that Luca, like early Luca, totally ball dominant and completely unstoppable. Last year he couldn't beat guys off the dribble. He couldn't be in attack mode. So I was okay with LeBron, LeBron beating guys off the dribble. But you go to young Luca, rookie Luca, I think we talked about this one had 25 dunks. LeBron last or Luka last year had one dunk. Like we're going back to 20 dunk Luka, lean Luca, he's got to have the ball in his hands 80% of the time. Austin Reeves can't have the ball in his hands and LeBron shouldn't have the ball in his hands. Lean Luka is not lumpy Luca. J Macle the news no, no, no, no. Turn on the news. This is the Herd line news.
Ad Voice
All right, let's go to the NFL with the Minnesota Vikings. Colin, big news out of the Vikings camp is that JJ McCarthy, he is going to start Minnesota's first preseason game. You know, no, no point in waiting. Let's just throw him right into the fire. Here's Kevin o' Connell talking about JJ Starting a preseason game.
Kevin O'Connell
You'd love to play him, you know, as much as possible. But I think with those two days of joint practice, the guys that, you know, the. The type of repetition that the guy, the other guys on the offense will get from a physicality and workload standpoint, we'll. We'll more than likely use those two days as our. Our real days, obviously subject to change based upon how those practices go, how we feel coming out of those. If we need to get a little more work, we will. And then we'll assess that final preseason game when it comes.
Colin Cowherd
Okay, Am I a little over the top saying I really want to watch this game? I want to see J.J. mcCarthy play this? This. This is a classic. Okay. Remember a couple years ago we used to joke that you had more footage of Bigfoot than Jordan Love backing up Aaron Rodgers? Like you, they hid the video. You know, they only let you look at so much in camp to begin with, but we've gotten real glimpses of Shador Sanders and real glimpses of Caleb Williams. I can't wait to watch J.J. mcCarthy play.
Ad Voice
Well, more interesting, is he going to have his starting offensive line line? Is Justin Jefferson going to be on the out? Like, are they going to play everyone or. I mean, I can't imagine they put McCarthy back there behind like backups and guys trying to make the roster. So now you're talking about playing a lot of starters because I know you were overreacting a little bit to the Lions. They. I don't know if they played any starters, Colin. And now you talk about J.J. mcCarthy, starting QB starting from Minnesota. So kind of crazy, I will say this. Do you want to guess what their win total was last season? Okay. Last season, Minnesota with Sam Darnold.
Colin Cowherd
Huh? Eight and a half.
Ad Voice
It was seven. They won 14 games. That's absurd. I. The more you look into the schedule, they were nine and one in one score games. Colin, you know what that usually means. Remember Kansas City 11 and oh, Minnesota, nine and one and one score games. If you really dig in deep into it, seems like maybe I overreacted this summer on the Vikings and they profile more like a 9ish. Win team.
Colin Cowherd
Yes.
Ad Voice
As opposed to 11.
Colin Cowherd
Well, and also something about Green Bay and I talked about this to start the show. How many games did Green Bay win last year? And they started and they had a backup quarterback Jordan loved. Wasn't great at the end of the year and the division was pretty interesting. Lions were great, Vikings were outstanding and Green Bay still won double digit games. So my take is if Jordan Love is just healthy with their draft and additions, Green Bay is about as predictable as your morning coffee. You kind of know what you get with Green Bay.
Ad Voice
I don't know if we can get the Vikings schedule on the screen, but I was looking at it here during the commercial break. Colin. It's really rough. A lot of early standalone games for the rookie quarterback. The lights are bright and then they have back to back international games in Dublin and London. I'm starting to pull back a little bit on my Vikings love and I think the packers are zooming past them in the end.
Colin Cowherd
How about that game at Sam Darnold hosting JJ McCarthy Week 13 at Seattle. That is a great. That is a great. Yeah, yeah.
Ad Voice
That schedule. Look at that. Eagles after the buy. Chargers, Lions, Ravens, packers. Those are all teams projected to be playoff teams.
Colin Cowherd
I'll make the argument that the schedule gets really rough about week seven. It gets, I mean it's Jalen Hurts into Herbert, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Green Bay at Seattle, Jaden Daniels. But I would say in the first few weeks we don't know if Atlanta or Chicago are any good. We don't know if Pittsburgh's any good. If you're going to make hay and you're the Vikings, you can make it in the first five weeks. There's some W's there because I do believe they have an argument to be made. It is the best coaching staff in the sport right now. If you look at coordinators and head coach.
Ad Voice
I mean I love, I love Kevin o'.
Connell.
Can he win a playoff game like I just won?
Colin Cowherd
Well, it's hard.
Ad Voice
I like him. I like him a lot. I'm bullish. But you're right, Flores is a monster Vikings. It's gonna be a good season. Interesting for sure. Next up, let's go to the Steelers and new wide receiver DK Metcalf. He's saying all the right things. Since joining Pittsburgh, most of the attention has been on his connection with Aaron Rodgers. QB1 there. Metcalf has really been impressed on with the other side of the ball as well.
Colin Cowherd
And you don't want my opinion because I think they, the Best defense I've never seen. Really? Yeah. Like there's some dogs everywhere on the field and I tip my hat to them because they come to work every day and you know, I, I ain't got. We don't have any choice but to get better. All right. Yeah, we'll see.
Ad Voice
Yeah, let's settle down there. I mean, you played the Prime Niners when you were in Seattle, bro. Stop.
Colin Cowherd
It's really interesting. If you look, go look at the Athletics piece about the four things at camp that had been a bit of a struggle. And I said this yesterday, it's the Jet. You could have written the article about the Jets. I think the Steelers are a more organized, better run version of the Jets. They don't have a number two receiver. Aaron won't trust the offensive line. They won't consistently be able to run. And the O line in New York and Pittsburgh, despite draft capital and money spent on it, isn't very good. And Aaron at this point does not want to get hit. He has no interest getting hit. I think they're going to look and it'll feel. And New York and Pittsburgh both have really good players. They don't have a ton of depth offensively, but they, you know, Najee Harris last year, Breece hall, you have a Garrett Wilson, you have a DK Metcalf. They just don't have depth at running back or wide receiver. Mark my words. Aaron's going to look a lot like, like week 10 on jets last year. A lot of short stuff and, and doesn't have a second receiver he can trust.
Ad Voice
That's not bad. I will say for as bleak as it looks in Pittsburgh and I would agree with you, I would definitely take Mike Tomlin on the Jets. The jets have had like 10 coaches.
Colin Cowherd
Yes. You know, and yeah, no, much more well run buttoned up organization than the jets, but players win and lose games and it, it's. They're a, they're a glossy, well constructed version of the New York jets with Aaron, he's just one year older. Final story.
Ad Voice
Colin is. Let's go to the jets and new head coach Aaron Glenn. He's trying to revamp the culture in New York. The jets led the league with 137 penalties, 1034 penalty yards and they had five games with at least 10 penalties last season. Colin, five. I mean that's just undisciplined. I think some of that had to do with Robert Sala getting shoved out. Glenn hopes to make that change by having as many Officials. Yes, officials, zebras, refs attend practice as possible. Colin, this was, this was all bad for the jets, but what do you think about the officials at practices? I don't know how common that is.
Colin Cowherd
I don't think that's new. I think, I think teams have done that before. I don't, I think college teams have done that where you invite officials in for practices. Yeah, I don't think that's. I don't know if it's customary, but I. NFL officials are, have been at camp forever.
Ad Voice
Yeah, that's just.
Colin Cowherd
Again, it's a story because it's a New York team, but I don't think that's a. I don't think that's a big deal.
Ad Voice
Just further illustrates the lack of discipline this team had last year. I mean, so many dumb penalties at inopport times.
Colin Cowherd
The ownership doesn't have any discipline. Why would the players.
Ad Voice
Yeah. Top down, it's an embarrassment.
Colin Cowherd
J. Mac with a news well, that's the news and thanks for stopping by the Herd lie news. So there was a. It was funny. We were, I was doing some homework on Bo Nicks this morning and Sean Payton came out and said we're looking at a superstar, which can sound crazy on its face, but what is really interesting about Bo Nix. So Denver's in. I mean, Denver gets overshadowed by Mahomes and Andy Reid and then last year Jim Harbaugh and Herbert, and they're in the Rocky Mountain, that weird time zone, whereas Washington's in a big media center and Jaden Daniels with the commanders. So the thought is. But Jaden Daniels was unbelievable and Bo Nix was clearly second. But what's fascinating, if you really look at what happened, Bo Nix in a better division against arguably the two best defensive coordinators in football, Steve Spagnola, twice Kansas City, and Jesse Minter, who took the Chargers from 32nd to first. In defense, Bo Nix had more completions, more touchdown passes, more total touchdowns, more passing yards. And we were, we were talking about this this morning as a staff. If you go to week four on for Bo Nix, it's like a top six quarterback in the league. Guy was 29 touchdowns, eight picks, got 101 passer rating. So we were, we were talking about Bo Nix as a staff and Seth Wickersham, great writer, came out with a piece on Sean Payton and Bo Nix and I want to bring him out on the show next. Trustandwill.com makes it easy. You don't want a state controlling your assets or documents when you pass away. Go to trustandwill.com today. For total peace of mind, be sure to catch live editions of the Herd weekdays at noon Eastern, 9am Pacific.
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Colin Cowherd
Hi, it's Colin. I've been around long enough to know.
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Okay. I like things that are built to last.
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I like to keep it simple.
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Totally versatile.
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Listen, baseball season's here.
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It's what I pour.
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Colin Cowherd
Seth Wickersham has been a senior writer and a great one at ESPN for more than two decades. A New York Times bestseller. He writes books. We put him on the air. He has a new book coming out September 9th. I can't wait. American Kings, a biography of the quarterback Arch Manning, Peyton Manning, Johnny Unitis, Warren Moon, John El. Wait, not Johnny Unit? Yeah, Johnny Unitis. He talks about that. He's got stuff on Arch Manning, Caleb Williams and I want to bring him on because we were talking as a staff this morning about Bo Nix, Seth Ruth Gersham joining us and you got some access to Bo Nix. And I I've made the argument before that Jaden Daniels is remarkable, but in the division with the Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, he got a lot of big market press and Bo Nix, quietly in a better division, in a better conference from about week four on was fairly stupendous. You got access to Sean Payton for this book? I don't know if you got it pre drafting Bo Nicks. We can talk about that. What is your takeaway on why Peyton is so fond of him? He just called him this week a superstar in the making. Did you see that a year, two years ago when you started this project?
Seth Wickersham
Well, so thank you, first of all. And I think that like anytime you're going to write about quarterbacks, you have to write about that age old question, you know, how do you know a pro quarterback when you see one? Is it possible to know? We always talk about how difficulty it is, the difficulty in predicting college performance to NFL performance. And I sat down with Sean Payton and this was in March of 2024. Everybody knew that the Broncos were in the market for a quarterback. And he looks me in the eye and he says, do you promise with every shred of your integrity that you won't share this with anyone? And I said, sure. And it was obviously, don't share it before the draft. He said he opened a folder and there was all this data on the folder and Bo Nix was at the top of the list. And I was like, what is this? And Sean Payton had developed his own analytics formula to try to judge processing speed of college quarterbacks. And he started it back when he scouted Patrick Mahomes in 2017. And when he ran the 2024 quarterbacks through the formula, Bo Nix was by far the most efficient and it wasn't even close. And Caleb Williams, by the way, was one of the last ones of the first round of the guys who ended up going in the first round.
Colin Cowherd
Wow. Well, that, you know, that that is interesting because your book, you know, a book is going to be successful when it makes news. Well, before it comes out, you already made news and confirmed st that I had said about a year ago. I think we about Caleb Williams, his dad, his nervousness about Chicago. And after many camps and OTAs, there is video, Seth, of Caleb struggling, his reputation in college, accuracy issues and a bit moody in the NFL. We've seen both. Are you surprised when you talked about Caleb with multiple sources? Do you think these are not just brief hiccups and maybe this is what Caleb is going to be as a pro quarterback?
Seth Wickersham
I mean, I think that a rookie year is about survival first and foremost. And I think Caleb not only survived, he showed a lot of flashes of a pretty rare skill set. I think that, you know, what Carl and Caleb wanted was some agency over his future employer. Same thing that Jack Elway and Archie Manning wanted for their side. And even though they didn't get it when they wanted it, I think they got it now, which is, you know, what they wanted was it was an innovative offensive mind who is really invested in Caleb Williams. And I think that trying to draw too much from training camp. You know, I think that like, that's often a mistake that we make. I think that Caleb Williams is a Pretty special quarterback. That doesn't mean he's perfect. I think that Bill Belichick had a point when he said that there were open receivers on the field, especially over the middle, that Caleb either failed to see or failed to pull the trigger on. But, you know, it was only his rookie year. I think that he flashed some pretty special quarterbacking potential, and I think that now he has a chance to kind of realize his potential with the new head coach.
Colin Cowherd
So Arch Manning is a fascinating story. I said the other day, in a world of the transfer portal and nil, when the minute a quarterback doesn't think he's number one on the depth chart, they bolt. And here's Arch Manning, who in my opinion, is more talented than Quinn Ewers. Not a peep, never disgruntled. And I said, that is so Manning. He's got just the Manning quarterback gene in the transfer portal, the ability at Texas, and maybe you're the better player to sit as a backup. That's all I needed to know about his maturity. Now, a lot of. I think the media has been pretty responsible with architecture that we're all saying, can we at least see him play Ohio State? When you did, when you're, when you did your book on Arch, what should we expect? What did you learn about him?
Seth Wickersham
Well, I think that the interesting thing with him is exactly what you mentioned, and that's that when you're hyped from such a young age, and in the book, I go into the very first moment when he was in eighth grade when everyone was looking at each other going like, oh, my God, this is for real. And, you know, people think that anything other than being the first pick in the draft and having like a very solid, if not hall of Fame, NFL career is a disappointment, which is insane. You look for little things like that to gauge, you know, where this person's head is at. And, you know, I think you're right. If, you know, Tom Brady didn't come into college. Tom Brady, of course we know that he was broken and then had to rebuild himself at Michigan. And the fact that Arch, who picked Texas, you know, for two reasons among many, one, that the head coach was the offensive play caller, so he wasn't going to go anywhere and there would be continuity. And to that, in Austin, he might be. It might be a big enough town for him to kind of blend in and he wouldn't be as big as he was in, like, Oxford, Mississippi. Those two things have held relatively true for him. And the fact that he was willing to stay and sit and learn and be patient I think is a good sign for him long term. I think that like if he had tried to get out, it would have been very understandable. But I think that the way that he's handled it I think is a very, very positive sign now. I mean look, he's got to go out and play. We'll see how that goes. But I think that like the way that he's handled his career so far I think is pretty impressive.
Colin Cowherd
So you have, you're, you're, you've got Arch and Caleb and Bo Nix and you've got the old guys. Elway, Johnny Unit is Peyton Manning, Warren Moon, who I always thought was historically underrated. And you know, there's been this kind of narrative that the NFL is flipping a coin on quarterbacks. They don't know who's going to be great and I push back on that. Take out Brady, most of the great quarterback, Elway Marino, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson right now, now even guys like Big Ben that played at non traditional powers, most of them went first round. Overwhelmingly they go first round. But Mahomes is fascinating because he may be the most talented ever and he didn't even have a winning record in college. That when you, when you did your homework on this book which comes out September 9, American Kings are there stories. I mean his dad was a baseball player in the big. So he's got some athletic genes. Were there stories about Mahomes that surprised you and that I mean Andy Reid, Brett Veach, Gruden. What did you take away from the Mahomes journey? College to pros?
Seth Wickersham
Well, one of the main things that I hit on with Patrick Mahomes is him and his religion. I mean obviously he's very much into his Christian religion and I think that that's fascinating within the context of his gifts, his God given gifts and his success as a quarterback and his notoriety as a quarterback. I think as a player. I think one of the most interesting things is that his career at Texas Tech, like he was under the radar. He didn't even get make it to Elite 11 finals. I mean Elite 11 is like a beauty pageant for physical skills with you know, quarterback physical skills. He didn't even make it to the finals. And at Texas Tech he was a little under the radar and he got to have the quarterback equivalent of like free play where he could make mistakes and keep going without worrying. Whereas like Tom Brady, of course when he was at Michigan he was conditioned that one bad snap at practice might mean that he doesn't even play that week. So it's a really interesting case study and I think that, you know, when, when Sean Payton was first looking to replace Drew Brees In 2017, he came up with this formula again to try to understand processing. And it's kind of like a failure index. It's really interesting. And Patrick had a great score on it and he was going to pick Patrick. Obviously, the Chiefs traded up with Buffalo, took him away and. But he kept the same analytics formula. And when he used it this time around, Bo Nix's score was the very best since Patrick Mahomes is. I mean, even though Patrick Mahomes threw a ton of passes and put up a ton of points and was under the radar, he didn't have a ton of turnovers. Like, and, and I think that, like the formula that he developed, he had a lot of confidence in it, and I think a lot of that had to do with Patrick Mahomes, so.
Colin Cowherd
Seth Wickersham, senior writer, ESPN Been there for a couple of decades. American Kings. Let's put it up again for our TV audience. A biography of the Quarterback book releases September 9th. It is already made news. Listen, you're going to be sitting on the couch watching a lot of football. This is what you should have next to you as a constant reference point. Seth, I appreciate you basically text me this morning. We got you on within an hour. I totally appreciate your flexibility on this and thank you so much and good luck with the book.
Seth Wickersham
Hey, man, great talking to you as always. I appreciate you.
Colin Cowherd
So in that great. He got access to this formula and the Bo Knicks numbers from weeks four to 18, again, you're a rookie quarterback, you come into the league. It's a great division. That kid. 67% completion percentage, 29 touchdowns, eight picks pass a rating of 101 2. And remember Denver spending their money on defense. Like even this year. Hofunga, Greenlaw, they're doing it again. They're doubling down on defense. So they're the. They don't have a number one receiver. Cortland Sutton's a great tooth. They don't have a number one back. They don't have a number one tight end. I think Garrett Bowles a very good left tackle, but I'd argue they have a majority of their elite talent is on the defensive side. So. And then again, Jesse Minter, Steve Spagnola, a big lift for a rookie quarterback. And that kid by week four was on one. Was on one. All right, Nick Wright's around the corner. Tom Brady's actually talking soccer. And we'll yeah, I know. He's actually got interesting comments. We'll talk about both on a Tuesday. Yeah, I'm sorry Chicago. I think I have to demote you and put the packers in the playoffs. I know it stings a little, but them the truth okay, have you heard about this?
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Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Hour 1: NFL Predictions
Release Date: August 5, 2025
Introduction
In the premiere hour of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd," Colin delves deep into his predictions for the upcoming NFL season. Aimed at offering listeners a thoughtful and analytical perspective, Colin challenges conventional beliefs about the unpredictability of the league, presenting a compelling argument for increasing predictability similar to trends observed in the NBA.
Predictability in the NFL
Colin opens the discussion by questioning the widely held belief that NFL games are inherently unpredictable. He posits, "I have this theory about the NFL that we think you never know who's going to win these games. But I believe for two reasons, the NFL is going to get more predictable." [03:30]
His primary argument centers around the consolidation of power within a few dominant teams and the impact of organizational stability on team performance. Colin highlights the reduction in the number of new playoff teams over recent years, suggesting a trend towards fewer surprises and more consistent outcomes.
AFC Predictions
AFC East: Colin maintains his prediction that Josh Allen will continue to lead the division as long as he's in his prime. He reiterates, "The Patriots are the safest double your win total bet in the league in five years." [04:15]
AFC North: The Baltimore Ravens emerge as Colin's top pick, whom he describes as, "the class of the division and one of the top three organizations in the league." [05:00] He expresses skepticism about the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, citing inconsistency and lack of depth.
AFC South: Labeling it the weakest division, Colin confidently predicts the Houston Texans to win, praising their coaching and quarterback. [06:20]
AFC West: Initially favoring the Cincinnati Bengals as a new playoff contender, Colin revises his stance, stating, "I'd probably move the Bengals out and put the Broncos in." This decision is influenced by ownership concerns and recent player additions. [07:10]
Key Quote: "If Joe Burrow gets an Andy Reid, he's hoisting the trophies, not Patrick Mahomes. And I really firmly believe that." [06:45]
NFC Predictions
NFC East: Colin stands by his predictions for the Eagles and the Commanders, considering them strong contenders in their division. [08:30]
NFC North: He opts to exclude the Chicago Bears, attributing their challenges to organizational noise and rookie quarterback issues. Instead, Colin endorses the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings as reliable performers. [09:15]
NFC South: The division is deemed the weakest, with Colin acknowledging the Minnesota Vikings' competitiveness but maintaining a cautious outlook due to their challenging schedule. [10:00]
NFC West: He supports the San Francisco 49ers, albeit with reservations about their aging roster and depth. [10:45]
Key Quote: "I would put the Broncos in. I mean they added Greenlaw, Bufanga, Evan Ingram." [07:20]
Comparison with College Football and the NBA
Colin draws parallels between the NFL's increasing predictability and similar trends in college football and the NBA. He critiques the expansion of playoff games and regular-season matches, arguing that these changes disproportionately benefit teams with deeper rosters and greater financial resources.
He laments the dwindling opportunities for underdog teams to make unexpected playoff runs, emphasizing that the trend undermines the sport's competitive balance.
Key Takeaways and Conclusions
Colin concludes with a somber prediction: the NFL will continue to see fewer new playoff teams, making the league increasingly predictable and top-heavy. He warns that the expansion of the season and playoffs may widen the gap between elite and struggling teams, much like the current state of the NBA.
Final Quote: "Everybody wants change, the NFL is going to become the NBA. ... when we go to an 18th game, and ... making the league incredibly quarterback centric, you're going to have a clear top and a really ugly bottom and it's going to become very predictable." [14:00]
Colin encourages fans to embrace these changes and adjust their expectations, as the landscape of professional football evolves towards greater consistency in team performance.
Notable Quotes with Timestamps
Conclusion
In this episode, Colin Cowherd provides a thought-provoking analysis of the NFL's direction, challenging listeners to reconsider their perceptions of the league's competitiveness. By meticulously examining team dynamics, organizational stability, and structural changes within the sport, Colin offers a nuanced perspective that underscores the shifting paradigms in professional football.
For fans seeking an in-depth and analytical approach to NFL predictions, this episode serves as an essential listen, blending insightful commentary with strategic foresight.