Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "Hour 3 - Steve Keim Joins The Herd"

Episode Information:

• Title: Hour 3 - Steve Keim Joins The Herd
• Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
• Release Date: March 5, 2025
• Description: In this engaging episode, Colin Cowherd welcomes Steve Keim, the former General Manager of the Arizona Cardinals and current GM of Clutch Football, to discuss a range of NFL topics. Their conversation delves into draft analytics, player evaluations, team management strategies, contract negotiations, and the evolving landscape of college football recruiting.

1. Introduction and Guest Appearance

The episode kicks off with Colin Cowherd introducing Steve Keim, highlighting his extensive experience as a decade-long GM of the Arizona Cardinals and his current role at Rich Paul's Clutch Football. Colin emphasizes that Steve brings a wealth of knowledge in analytics and draft auditing, setting the stage for an insightful discussion on NFL strategies and player evaluations.

2. NFL Draft Analytics and Player Success Rates

Steve Keim opens the conversation by sharing his insights into NFL draft analytics, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in team building.

• Draft Success Rates: Steve explains, "When you looked at the analytics of the entire NFL, on average, how many draft picks become starters and stick? ... over a 10-year period, the first three rounds saw about 51% of players hitting the mark as solid starters" (03:00).

• Quarterback Picks: Focusing on quarterbacks, Steve notes, "Football League quarterbacks first round, what's the number? 49%" (03:15). He underscores the challenges teams face in consistently selecting successful quarterbacks in the first round.

3. Evaluating Quarterback Prospects: Jaylen Milroe vs. Shador Sanders vs. Anthony Richardson

The discussion shifts to specific quarterback talents and their potential impact in the NFL.

• Jaylen Milroe: Steve is notably enthusiastic about Jaylen Milroe, stating, "His upside and his talent is absolutely... he can throw the football like few others, with speed and explosiveness for a quarterback" (03:57). Steve believes Milroe has the physical attributes and skill set to develop into a great pro under the right coaching.

• Shador Sanders: Addressing Shador Sanders, Steve comments, "He's got a lot going for him in the right direction... he's a smart football player with great pocket presence" (07:42). He acknowledges potential concerns such as holding the ball too long but remains optimistic about Sanders' professional trajectory.

• Anthony Richardson: Comparing Milroe to Anthony Richardson, Steve asserts, "I think he's a better athlete than Anthony Richardson" (04:00). He highlights Richardson's size and explosiveness but suggests Milroe may have a slight edge in athleticism.

4. Team Management and Player Acquisitions: James Conner and Running Back Market Insights

Steve Keim shares his strategic approach to player acquisitions, particularly focusing on running backs and the broader market dynamics.

• James Conner Acquisition: Reflecting on his time with the Arizona Cardinals, Steve discusses the decision to acquire James Conner, countering the prevalent belief that running backs are overrated. "I've always believed that perimeter players can be a bit overrated. Wide receivers, I think we just got out of a wide receiver bubble," he explains (05:22).

• Running Back Market: Steve emphasizes the value of drafting running backs, citing analytics that suggest the best running backs are often found in the third to fifth rounds. He praises how teams like the Eagles have positioned themselves by securing top-tier running backs like Saquon Barkley, noting, "They set the market now at what, $20 million for running backs. And they rewarded one of their own. That's tremendous" (05:51).

5. Contract Negotiations and Player Movement: Saquon Barkley and Zach Bond

Delving into contract negotiations, Steve offers his perspective on managing high-profile players and salary cap considerations.

• Saquon Barkley: Steve commends the Eagles' decision to pay Saquon Barkley a substantial contract, recognizing him as a "bell cow" for the team. He believes Barkley's contract sets a favorable market precedent for future running back deals (05:51).

• Zach Bond Signing: Discussing Zach Bond's recent signing, Steve highlights Bond's impact as a defensive front-setter. "He's a difference maker... he may be the guy that sets that front and keeps them aligned" (06:20), Steve asserts Bond's value to the Eagles' defensive strategy.

• Milton Williams: Steve also mentions Milton Williams, another client of his, praising his talent and projecting a successful market presence (05:55).

6. Offensive Line Development: Chicago Bears’ Draft Strategy

As a former offensive lineman, Steve provides valuable insights into offensive line development and the Chicago Bears' recent draft moves.

• Bears’ Draft Picks: Steve expresses approval of the Bears' strategy to draft two guards, emphasizing the critical role of the offensive line in protecting the quarterback and enabling a successful offensive strategy. "Your future is that quarterback... it's about protecting that quarterback inside out" (07:06).

• Assessing the Draft: He classifies the Bears' offensive line draft as "solid," acknowledging the presence of good starters despite fewer Pro Bowl talent (07:21).

7. College Quarterbacks and the Impact of NIL (Name, Image, Likeness)

The conversation transitions to the evolving landscape of college football, particularly the influence of NIL deals on recruiting and player development.

• NIL Influence: Steve observes, "Half these quarterbacks have more money than half the starters in the NFL" (14:36), highlighting the significant financial opportunities that NIL deals present to college athletes.

• Recruitment Strategies: He stresses the importance of early recruitment and relationship building with players to navigate the NIL environment effectively. "You want to develop the relationship with the players earlier in the process... builds that relationship early" (20:16).

• Player Maturity and Readiness: Steve praises programs like Ohio State for producing mature and NFL-ready players, attributing their success to the intensity and life skills taught during their collegiate careers (21:35).

8. Agent and GM Dynamics: Interactions and Negotiation Tactics

Steve delves into the nuanced relationships between agents and GMs, offering strategies for effective negotiations.

• Negotiation Challenges: He acknowledges the adversarial nature of negotiations, stating, "You have to be on your P's and Q's and you got to be ready because they want to fight at all times" (18:39).

• Advising Agents: Steve advises agents to prioritize player fit and system compatibility over purely financial gains. "Don't be dumb and chase the money somewhere else... play for your home team" (18:18).

• Preparation for Calls: Emphasizing preparedness, he notes the necessity of being well-prepared for calls with top-tier agents, who are often more experienced and combative (18:51).

9. Evaluating Player Potential and Market Moves: Sam Darnold and Others

The discussion includes evaluations of specific players and their market situations.

• Sam Darnold: Steve expresses a pragmatic view on Sam Darnold's market value, suggesting that while Darnold is a capable player, his market is limited due to an abundance of available quarterbacks. "The franchise tag is at 40. You're probably negotiating somewhere off that number" (15:55).

• Aaron Rodgers Hypothetical: When posed the question of signing Aaron Rodgers, Steve is open to short-term contracts, recognizing Rodgers' talent but acknowledging his personal desires. "If he puts himself in the right situation, I think he'll have some success" (16:45).

• Max Crosby Signing by the Raiders: Steve discusses the Raiders' landmark signing of Max Crosby, highlighting it as a strategic move to secure top defensive talent ahead of the market. He commends the decision, stating, "He is unblockable" (33:14) and differentiates Crosby's value from other defensive stars.

10. Player Development and Influences: Jordan Palmer and Sam Darnold

Steve shares insights into player development, particularly the role of mentors and specialized coaches.

• Jordan Palmer's Influence: Highlighting Jordan Palmer's impact, Steve credits him with elevating players like Sam Darnold. "Jordan Palmer is like the quarterback whisperer... he works with him as well as Josh Allen and some of those guys" (15:55).

• Sam Darnold's Growth: Despite initial reservations, Steve acknowledges Darnold's improvement under Palmer's mentorship. "Sam is going to have a market... the franchise tag is at 40" (15:57).

11. Recruitment of NFL-Ready Players: Clutch Football's Approach

Steve outlines Clutch Football's recruitment strategies, emphasizing the importance of early relationship building and player readiness.

• Program Evaluation: He identifies Ohio State as a prime example of a program that produces NFL-ready players, praising their comprehensive training and life skills education (21:16).

• Avoiding Overhyped Players: Steve cautions against overvaluing players from certain programs that may inflate their abilities, referencing coaches like Nick Saban and Jeff Tedford as examples who can make players appear more capable than they are (20:56).

12. Final Thoughts and Season Outlook

Wrapping up the discussion, Steve provides his perspective on the current NFL season, team strategies, and future prospects.

• Team Strategies: He emphasizes the importance of drafting wisely, especially in competitive divisions, and advises against overcommitting to high-cost players unless they fit seamlessly into the team's system (36:43).

• Player Contracts and Team Culture: Steve reiterates that team culture and coaching influence contract decisions, advocating for paying players who align with the team's long-term vision. "Pete will have the final say on draft day... Pete will have the big say" (37:14).

• Optimism for Young Talent: He expresses optimism for emerging talents like Jared Verse and Will Anderson, suggesting they will be pivotal in shaping their teams' defensive strengths (35:24).

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Keim on Draft Success Rates:

  "When you looked at the analytics of the entire NFL, on average, how many draft picks become starters and stick? ... over a 10-year period, the first three rounds saw about 51% of players hitting the mark as solid starters." (03:00)

• Steve Keim on Jaylen Milroe:

  "His upside and his talent is absolutely... he can throw the football like few others, with speed and explosiveness for a quarterback." (03:57)

• Steve Keim on James Conner Acquisition:

  "I've always believed that perimeter players can be a bit overrated. Wide receivers, I think we just got out of a wide receiver bubble." (05:22)

• Steve Keim on Contract Negotiations:

  "Don't be dumb and chase the money somewhere else... play for your home team." (18:18)

• Steve Keim on Ohio State's Program:

  "Those kids are so mature. And by the time that they get through that program, if they can make it through the program, they are NFL ready and they're ready to go into the real world." (21:35)

Conclusion

In this episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, Steve Keim offers a deep dive into the complexities of NFL team management, emphasizing the role of analytics in draft decisions, the strategic acquisition of players, and the importance of fostering strong relationships with college athletes in the NIL era. His expertise provides listeners with a multifaceted understanding of the behind-the-scenes decisions that shape NFL teams, making this episode a must-listen for sports enthusiasts seeking to comprehend the intricacies of professional football operations.