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- [00:00]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:30]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Vir here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [00:36]
Jason Demers
Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [00:41]
Adnan Virk
I got a lot to say here too.
- [00:42]
Simon Hunter
Okay?
- [00:42]
Adnan Virk
Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
- [00:45]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on Le table.
- [00:55]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:03]
Justin Penick
What's up, everyone? It's Justin Penick from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week. On Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did.
- [01:42]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live from my Tommy John home studio. And I'm. I'm joined. And I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [02:03]
Simon Hunter
Chad. How we doing?
- [02:06]
Chad Millman
Optimistic, confident, clear eyed. My heart is full. We cannot lose, my brother. We can not lose. That's how I feel. How do you feel?
- [02:18]
Simon Hunter
It's my favorite time of year. It's like you got one foot into, you know, the best football of the year and the other foot is off season mode already. Already. All the drama, all the conversation. And I just love this time of year where it's like even if your team's a loser and you're out, there's still drama, still something to care about with your team because there's all the coaching change, everything like that. And on the flip side, we talked about this is the best weekend of football, right? This is our last weekend of at least four games on Saturday. We had two on Saturday, two Sunday. And I try to enjoy it because I know and you know it's almost over, baby. This is, this is almost the end. So try to enjoy it.
- [02:53]
Chad Millman
My last weekend of telling my wife I have to work on Saturday night so I know I cannot go out to dinner with X, Y Z couple because I have to work on Saturday night. Today is our NFL Divisional Best Bets episode as we did last week will not only be we will not only be reviewing the sides for this weekend's games, we are adding any other bets we like as well. That will hopefully give folks more to look for, root for. Think about this weekend. We will also be including those bets as options for our Foxhole, our Tommy John Big Balls bet of the week. We will of course discuss Simon's biggest bets. Play Scooter Let all that Jazz Sunday night. We normally do our shows on Sunday night around 7:30 because the Bills Ravens game starts at 6:30. We are going to go live after that game. It's going to be a late night for me. I'm going to need to have an afternoon espresso to be able to do that show. We're going to go after the Ravens and the Bills game finishes and that should be great because we're going to have a lot of stuff tied to that game as you are about to find out. Plus, you know Matt Mitchell lives and dies with the Buffalo Bills, so it could be super exciting to have to make him record a podcast one way or the other.
- [04:21]
Simon Hunter
This sucks and it's horseshit. But I'm too polite to say anything because I'm a class act.
- [04:27]
Chad Millman
Bets are rolling in. Lines are moving. Decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast boss Colin Cowherd likes to say, there's a sea of money out there. Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm going to be generationally wealthy. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never Ordinary. At BET365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right. As always on Thursdays during the season, we like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. We are very influential lines move. Based on our conversation, the pros feel compelled to check in and tell us what they're thinking. Simon, let's do sharp calls.
- [05:43]
Simon Hunter
Hello?
- [05:44]
Chad Millman
Who's there?
- [05:45]
Simon Hunter
I'm talking rain, rain telephone ring.
- [05:49]
Chad Millman
Somebody saying, baby, what you doing?
- [05:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, pretty interesting week obviously, because there's only four games. So there's going to be a lot of, you know, back and forth on guys where they're on different sides. And obviously the most contentious, you know, argumentative back and forth game, Ravens, Bills. So there's no doubt got a ton of pushback on that one.
- [06:12]
Chad Millman
You know, you push back on you liking the Bills.
- [06:16]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, guys are just like us where they dive into numbers and they see that basically when you boil down to it, every trend, just about every number on the field is going to back this Ravens team for good reason. Like we already talked about, we're going to talk about some more. You know, that was definitely the main call I got about, you think they think I'm doing too much emotion here, not going with the numbers, not trusting the numbers. And yeah, that's something. Again we'll talk about. I want to give too much away, but good. Yeah, I, I just thought that was interesting that I, I thought that was going to be a more public side, the Ravens. But there are some really smart professional money on that side. But you saw there's just as much smart money on the bill side keeping this number where it's at. Right. Like a couple offshore books. Touched two immediately took heavy money, went right back down to one and a half. And we've seen here, I don't know if you've seen in Connecticut, but New Jersey, no book has touched two on the Bills. Every book has been one and a half, in fact.
- [07:13]
Chad Millman
And let's, let's, let's save that because it's, that is the end of the show. It's the marquee game. It's at one at most books. So it's come down from the one and a half like the money is coming back on the Bills. So that is outstanding.
- [07:30]
Simon Hunter
Well I just thought it was interesting conversation with guys just because I did think it would be a pros versus Joe's type of game and it's like no, this Ravens team and you do dive into the numbers. You do look at the matchup. There are guys who are just like no, I'm trusting the trends here, trusting Lamar in this night game. But yeah, I can't wait to break that one down even more. Again, me and you love, we already knew the professionals on their side of it. This Detroit. Oh I don't know if Chad loves it but I love Commanders Detroit Lions. This is another professional side. A lot of the pros love the Lions but there's a decent amount of us that are crazy, crazy, crazy about this Washington team and throwing money on the Washington money line think they're going to pull off the upset. I just, I can't get over how they match up with this team and the fact that yes the Lions are going to be able to maybe make them one sided, take away the run option. That's what I honestly want. I want Jamie Daniels to have the ball in his hands at all times. I just think this is the type of game that we could finally see him break off 50 to 60 runs in this game where it's going to be him picking up a ton of yards with his own leg. So that was another game. It was really interesting to me that you know, I couldn't believe there's, there's pros out there still taking the nine and a half on this Lions team. And it is just they love this team, they respect this offense and they think, which most people I think professionally think that the injuries to this defense have been overrated a little bit. I just think they've been lucky with their competition. Now they're about to face a legit offense and we've seen when they played legit offenses they move the ball against them and then Steve and so that's another one obviously that split. I don't know where you're at with your egos love. I'm holding strong with it. I mean I might have talked to a handful of pros that are like, well I like the Rams but I like them at six and a half and now I'm not going to bet it. So this to me seems like the very public professional side with the pros and the public are lining up on this Eagles team. And the more info we get on the weather the more it makes sense to me that it's. It's becoming a really pro public side with this Eagles team because everyone knows that the LA is a dome team now. They're coming out, coming out east on a short week. So that was definitely a game I thought we would get pushed back on. Basically none shot. We're basically in line with a lot of professionals on this Eagles side. And yeah, for a game that. Not that it's left for dead, but it just seems like no one really cares about it. It's. It feels like, you know, pros are betting Houston Texans here and it's really just about what we always talk about. The. The models are going to favor Houston here because it's such a big number and it's Mahomes as a big favorite which Histor historically does not cover. But it's not like guys banging the table for this Houston team. I think everyone's just scared, you know, going against the Chiefs in the playoffs. So like we said, I think most guys agree with if this is regular season, of course you would bet Houston here. This is a great number. This is a nice spot. Especially with the. The way their defense matches up. They're great at stopping the run. That's we know the cheat the Chiefs. That's what they want to do here. But yeah, no one, no one planting their flag on this Houston team. So that, that might be the 1 blind spot for me this week is I am really not really giving any respect to Houston. I think this is such a cheap spot and the fact that no professionals really digging their feet in on this Houston side makes me even more confident where it's like, no, this does feel like the game where we see it time and time again, right. The one seed tends to roll the four seed or the five seed. Whoever gets into the come play this matchup. I don't really feel that way with Detroit with the Chiefs here like we talked about now the Chiefs are fully healthy, well rested. This does feel like a spot that Chiefs are going to roll. So yeah, pretty interesting. The only pushback we had were on sides. We talked totals, heard nothing about our. Our love for the total is that basically everyone I talked to loves the unders as well this week. Obviously we're on the highest over. I don't know if, if you've come around on that one as well Chad, but no guys are calling me up saying you're a psycho for betting this over of the 55. None of that because you're like, no, I see it like this could easily be a shootout. And Evan had an amazing trend basically in his article about these high totals. Outdoors we pick the under indoors that's when they do go over. So yeah, it's nice to see the trends back up my love for this over because I do think you're a point and a half of value here on this total for this Lions Commanders game.
- [11:39]
Chad Millman
All right, let's get into it. That first one up the Chiefs and the Texans. That line is settled in at eight and a half since we last spoke. We are in the foxhole on the Chiefs. I, I like I haven't bet the side on this game yet. I definitely lean Chiefs. I did bet the teaser. I did bet the Chiefs. I moved it down to two and a half and I moved the Bills up to seven and a half. So you can see it in the app. I've got a teaser on the Bills at minus two and a half. Bills plus seven and a half. Chiefs minus two and a half. And like I, I so want to bet the Chiefs here. I'm not buying the Texans. I'm not buying that they're all of a sudden fixed. I know their defense is good. What what's kept me from going all in has been a couple of trends of favorites with Mahomes as more than seven, right? Obviously we've talked about this forever. In his career, 41% against the spread as a favorite of more than 7.05and1 this season as a spread of more than 7 since 2020, 36% as a 7 plus point favorite. Worst mark of any QB in the NFL. However, it's going to be cold, 20 degrees, dome teams playing outside, fair, poorly. And then this, this is where like I want your take on this because the trends get really interesting. Right? So Mahomes Overall as a 7 point favorite as I said, 22, 32 and 3 as a 7 point favorite when the weather is under 40 degrees, 10, 6 and 1. So what that says to me is just shy of 50% of his covers as a seven point favorite come when the weather is below 40 degrees. Obviously we've been tracking these things for four or five days now. I've been trying to find the numbers that back up my suspicion. And when we get this deluge of data, which we get this to me feels like either I'm looking for confirmation bias or it's confirming my bias in the way that I want it to. Does that make sense? Like it. That's the number I was looking for to make me feel better about betting the Chiefs. It Feels like it threads the needle, sort of the Venn diagram of these things.
- [14:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And you know, a little bit about what you just talked about that we were trying to. Like you just said, we're trying to find reasons to back the Chiefs, not. Not reasons to fade them here. So that is definitely an issue going into this one. I agree with you on that. Where it's like, I'm trying to be open minded here, but I know that in my, my gut, my heart, I want to be on this Chiefs team. And I think it's what you just talked about there. It's like we've already been here before. We know this exact scenario. And like we said, regular season, we rode that streak. We faded Mahomes every time. He was a big favorite basically this year, and I didn't realize he was.05 and 1. That's pretty shocking, Evan. So, yeah, that, that's, that's pretty telling that, you know, it's just, it's different, right? The. The public overreacts, overrates. Mahomes during the regular season. That was without all of his weapons too, right? That was without all the guys. We've talked about coming back to this point and yeah, to me, we do respect how great this Houston's defense is and what they've done this season, but this is the type of scenario where it's like you have to factor in who they have played, right? Who is in their division, how some of their games have gone. When you go back and look at certain games, they have, like, you know, I think back to that Green Bay game they played right, when that was outdoors, not even that cold, right. But their defense couldn't stop the Green Bay offense. Like, there's a couple things like that where, yes, in the right setting, the right environment, their defense is really dominant. But in a setting like this, I just can't see. And I know that, you know, the strength of Houston right now is the run defense. Like that is their absolute strength. It's going to be a strength on strength because that's what the Chiefs do. Like second half, they just lean into that run game. And yeah, this Houston team, I think they're just going to wilt against that type of front. And even if they do try to stack the box and take away the run, Mahomes is going to kill you. The guy has seen it all. This is the exact moment he lives for. This is Andy Reid scheming up those perfect play calls in this exact scenario. So, yeah, my confidence, just like you, has not wavered just a Great spot. Like you said, if you're, if you're scared off by this big number, it's the perfect number to tease. Like they're giving you the tease here, like taking it down to two and a half. If you don't like the Bills, throw the Eagles in there. You're taking the Eagles basically down just to win outright. That's going to be a nice spot to be in. So I'm right there with you. I'm not scared off by this number. You know, the total. Obviously, we talked about it. That's the only fear for me is we might have missed the key number and the value.
- [16:50]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I think it's too, I think it's too low now. I wouldn't play the total at the number it's at now. It was higher a few days ago. I think you missed it. It's under 42 now. Just feels like I, I would still.
- [17:03]
Simon Hunter
Play because I do think it's going to keep coming down. Chad, because we just talked about the weather, like if this is going to be freezing cold and even a little bit of chance of snow, I could see the public finally joining us on the under. Because right now, the, the public right now is still in the over because they're viewing it the same way. It's like this is the lowest total that you can get with Mahomes. And you know, C.J. has big plays. That's what C.J. does. He makes big plays that can ruin totals like this for going over. So I, I get why the early money right now from the public is on the over. But I get closer and it's going to be all weather talk. We're about to get into it. It's. This is going to be a week dictated by the weather in many ways. And this feels like the type of game, the exact same way where it's like, you know, when people do wake up Saturday morning, they see that it's going to be say 10 degree or 15 degree at kickoff with a chance of snow in this matchup. I just think it's going to become pouring in on the under. So I still don't hate it. If you want to take it under 41 and a half. I just, I put it out there. Like I have this at 41. There's only a half point of value here. It's not crazy amount of value that I'm making you guys run to the window to bet this right now. But to me, there still is value on it. But I, I get where Chad's coming from. It's like if you feel like you missed it, you could roll the dice and hope for an opening drive touchdown. And then you take it live, take the under live. So that's always a way you can play these type of games.
- [18:19]
Chad Millman
I love doing that and, and we've talked about that a lot this season. You know, the other day, I forget which game I think it was the Broncos Bills. After that first touchdown, the total got up to 53. And it was originally it closed at like I think 47.
- [18:40]
Simon Hunter
47 and a half, 48.
- [18:42]
Chad Millman
And so you were all of a sudden getting five more points. And we see this all the time, especially with these island games, for lack of a better term, where there's nobody else, where everyone's watching these one game, this one game, prime time games, Thursday night, Monday night, Sunday night. When there is a touchdown on the first drive or early on in the game, the total spikes. And every single time you see like these teams settle in, even if there's a touchdown or score right after we saw with Buffalo and Denver this past weekend, like it immediately you can get a really high number live. So I think that's a good idea. I just think there's so many options on this game. Why do you want to waste it on an. On a number that you don't feel that confident about? I do want to pull in. When I was listening to the Action Network pod, listen to Stuckey and Raybon, Raybon went all in or like Dalton Schultz over three and a half receptions a lot. If you're afraid to play the Chiefs because you don't like the number, that's a good way to play the Chiefs without having to play the number. Because the one thing the Chiefs aren't great at is defending the middle of the field. They focus so much on the outside receivers and, and tight ends historically have a lot of success against the Chiefs. And if you expect the Chiefs to be winning, the Texans are going to have to be throwing the ball and Dalton shoots. Dalton Schultz will, will likely have a lot of opportunities to make some receptions. I don't know if you have a strong feeling on that.
- [20:10]
Simon Hunter
I love it. I mean there's tons of angles you can play in this game. Again, we focus mainly here on just totals and sides. But you know, second half unders under Andy Reid and Mahomes, it's a cash cow. Like I love betting the second half runners and we talk about all the time. It's because they basically just ball control. Maybe give the other team 2 to 3 possessions total in the second half because they just hold on to it, run it down the throat and just basically take the wind out. Leather sails. And we've seen it time and time again, air our head unders like, that's another reason to love this under. It's just a great, great, great spot to play because public use perceives as Chiefs the highest growing offense where that's just not who they've been these last couple years. So that's another sneaky play. If it's, you know, say it is a fluky first half, right? It's 2114 Chiefs or 2014 Chiefs. You have to play that second half under. It's a guarantee it's going to come through if it's that high score in the first half. So that's my another play of this where it's like, if you don't want to bet anything here, definitely lean to that second half under with this Chiefs team that just time and time again it's been cashing because it's just who they are. They're just a team that leans into the run the second half.
- [21:19]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirror ball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else you can find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but, like, all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like, it's all colored. They changed it and the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest, it was a little pink.
- [22:03]
Simon Hunter
There was something sentimental when you, like, when you send it, you're like, do I send the heart now?
- [22:09]
Bobby Bones
I don't like the color edition.
- [22:10]
Simon Hunter
It's extremely pink.
- [22:12]
Bobby Bones
Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [22:19]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL Unscripted with Burkin Demers.
- [22:27]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defense turned NHL Network analyst and boy oh boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [22:36]
Adnan Virk
I love you. By the way, on NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [22:44]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [22:55]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're going to soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We get all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear on NHL.
- [23:04]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Virkie.
- [23:07]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burke and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [23:19]
Justin Penick
What's going on everybody? This is Justin Pennock from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast alongside Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We're rolling three times a week, on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays, breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're talking about the MVP race. Is Josh Allen going to pull it out? Lamar Jackson? Can Saquon Barkley even break the rushing record? Can the Steelers keep up their momentum? We talk about everything, we break it down. Stats, analytics. And of course Chris Rose is bringing his perspective on being a pro in the media world as well. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did. Hope you could join us for the postseason run.
- [24:09]
Chad Millman
Washington plus nine and a half at Detroit total 55 and a half. This was. Simon says you like the over a lot.
- [24:21]
Simon Hunter
Detroit.
- [24:24]
Chad Millman
I offer this from Evan and I say this with love because I am with you on the over. I haven't bet it yet because I think it's. I think the total is going to come down a little bit. I keep seeing juice that's directionally towards 55 in playoff games between number one and number six seeds. The under is 80% 24 game sample size over the past 20 years. I still like the over. I think. I think this is one of those games where they might start slow and there might be 50 points scored in the fourth quarter. I think when these defense are a little bit gassed, when the offenses have figured out how to scheme against these defenses that are not very good and don't have great personnel with the Offenses that they have and the weapons they have on offense, the second half in this game is going to be just pinball. It's going to be amazing. That's my take on it.
- [25:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it's a over. I'm betting knowing that it's going to come down to a handful of fourth down plays. Like these two coaches don't shy away from who they are. And we've seen it time and time again, like the Lions, games that do go under, it's when they do struggle on fourth down, a golf turns a bowl over a lot. And you know, as much as we like to bash their defense and those games were golf struggles this season, their defense has stepped up. So I do get where your hesitation comes from. This over, I mean it's an insanely high total. It's 55 and a half. So I totally get where you're coming from on that one. But yeah, when I, when I go through the matchups, I still think, you know, as as good as Washington's defense did make stops against the Bucks. You said it right, there was, there was a plenty of opportunity there for the Bucs just to roll this Washington team, especially offensive. On the flip side, as well as Jane Daniels played, right, the 0.0 turnovers, I don't think that was that great of a game by him. Like there were a couple throws he did miss, a couple guys he did have open. And it's like I just think he needed to get that first playoff game under his belt. Like I do think he'll be more confident, relaxed than this. And just knowing that the speed is different. Like people say it all the time, playoff speed is different. You have to play it to really get it. And I think he did. You know, even talking after the game, Daniel Daniels talked about that where it's like he gets it where people say it's different in the playoffs, it is like every guy plays as if it's their last snap. They, they are just so desperate to get to where they they're going. And that's the Super Bowl. And it's like everyone knows, right? You put in a year of work for this exact one game opportunity, everyone's going to be going super hard, no plays off. And like you just said, I think this once again favors a high scoring game the second half where even if it's low scoring in the first half, it could end up being a track meet. Just because these offenses both are so explosive, they both have weapons that can at any point take the ball all the way downfield. And score and yeah, this, this game I like we talked on shortcuts. I was just shocked to know that there were so many professionals coming in on the sling side. I just, we've seen historically it's just rare that both favorites, big favorites like them and the Chiefs cover in the same week, you know, let alone have big win blowouts. And you know, this commander's team, in a normal year, they're probably, you know, winning their division with the amount of wins they had this season. Like this isn't just a normal six seed. So I do understand that trend from Evan. That does make sense. But, but it's also thinking about, well the six seed used to be the last seat. So that was when the six seed was coming in and playing the one seed after pulling off an upset and kind of being this, you know, lucky to be in there type of team that gets in there where nowadays it's like this is like a 12, 13 win team. Like it's just totally different now.
- [28:10]
Chad Millman
That is a great point.
- [28:12]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's just I'm trying to look.
- [28:14]
Chad Millman
Different because so you, Evan and your stupid friends.
- [28:17]
Simon Hunter
Well, I told you he had that amazing stat just to basically about these high totals. The difference between outdoors and indoors. And that to me is once again the difference here. Like we're not playing in 20 degrees Philly here we're playing in an air controlled Ford Stadium where it's like perfect. It's perfect for this type of matchup for these. Both these teams are based on the track and they're just gonna be running the ball up and down the field. So yeah, I, I still love Washington here. I love the matchup and obviously for them to win this, I know what I'm doing here. I need a ton of luck. Like there's a reason you're getting plus 400 right now in Washington, but this just feels like the upset. Like you know, last year people forget the Chiefs, they made that run as the four seed wherever it was. Like we, we've had a run here of, you know, these crazy later seeds making runs. I mean what was it, two, three years ago? The, the Rams, Bengals, they're both four and three seeds. So I know people are used to just the one seeds dominate. I know historically it is the best spot to be in, but every now and then we do get a crazy upset and that's what I'm banking on here. It's like of all the games like we've gone through here, I mean you could say the Bills are an upset, but that's not, that's not an upset. It's they're one and a half point dog. One point dog. That's not a real upset. This, this would legit be shocking. I mean even talking to bookmakers, it's basically 90% of the bets, 90% of the money. All of it is on Detroit's money line, in their parlays, all their teasers. So this to me, in our normal year I'd feel way more confident about this bet chat. But it has been the year of chalk, so I'm betting it. But it's like with a little bit of, a little bit of confidence just because the, the public has just been winning on these type of bets.
- [29:52]
Chad Millman
Well, look, I agree with you. Of the two games that we're looking at that that are bigger favorites, I feel much more comfortable betting on the Chiefs than I do on the Lions. However, we've talked about this all year. The Lions under Dan Campbell and under Jared Goff are just dominant against the spread and against the spread at home and against the spread with extra rest 13 and 4 against the spread as a duo with extra rest 11 and 2 is faves Goff indoors 34, 13 and 1 against the spread 18, 2 and 1 against the spread. Against teams averaging more than 24 points per game, the Commanders average 28. The Lions are the best in the super bowl era over the past three years and four years against the spread. And then I want to remind everybody that the Commanders have won their last five games on the final play of the game. That's not even a joke. Five straight games winning the game on the final play of the game. So to me that would make me think, okay, the Commanders know how to stay in the game. They're going to keep it close. There's an opportunity for a backdoor cover there. There's reasons to be on the Commanders here, but I will say, I will say that that includes beating New Orleans. Not a very good team. They needed help beating Philly after Jalen Hurts was injured, beating Atlanta because Raheem Morris is still learning how to use timeouts. Beating Dallas in a game that didn't matter. And then last week because of Baker Mayfield's fumble, they stayed in the game and then they got the Zane Gonzalez field goal off the upright. So either they are truly magical and they will find a way to backdoor as huge underdogs or they are due to just get blown out by a better team.
- [32:05]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we need a lot of luck. And it just reminds me too of early in the year and we bet. I think they got up to seven and a half in our contest room, or maybe it was six and a half. Either way, they were playing the Ravens and it was basically a game where they got dominated the entire game.
- [32:20]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And they came back.
- [32:21]
Simon Hunter
Exactly. They found a way to come back and backdoor and it's like it got.
- [32:25]
Chad Millman
Up to seven and a half. This is when the Ravens couldn't cover anyone in the secondary. Jaden Daniels had a miraculous throw down the sideline. They scored. They ended up covering the seven by half a point. It was one of the few times where we played the number and it actually worked out for us this year. I will never forget it. It was brilliant and it made us love Jaden Daniels and that's what we.
- [32:48]
Simon Hunter
Need though, like we know we need, we're gonna need a lot of luck here because what you just broke down like Detroit is the better team. They're more the established team. They're the veteran team. This is their year, like we talked about. This is lined up perfectly. They have all their coaches still on the team. Their offense, basically Montgomery's back, they're ready to go. Their offense is basically as good as it's going to get for the rest of the season. Right. Like there's, there's nothing else they can add other than, you know, like that. That to me is the biggest game changer of their offense. Having him back with Gibbs. Yeah, you know, we talked about that. That's, that's a big deal. So we know it's an uphill battle here and that's why we're, we're, we're playing the number, you know, throwing a little on the money line, but it's really all about us getting this back door. That's, that's what me and Chad are hoping here is that we can get a miracle Hail Mary of our own and get this backdoor cover or crazy upset win and on a two minute drive by Jane Daniel. So to me it's just a fun bet and a great value bet.
- [33:42]
Chad Millman
But do you see it? You know what, actually I want to wait, I want to wait until we get to your biggest bets because I'm curious. Think about this. Is this a, you know, one of my four biggest bets of the year bets or is this a I feel like I'm finding the edge bet and if I've got to choose a side, I'm choosing Washington. Don't answer it yet. Let's talk about it with your biggest bets. The LA Rams at Philadelphia Eagles are minus 6. The total is 44. It's gone up a little bit. This was my exact decision and not surprisingly, I'm not surprised by the feedback that we got on sharp calls. To me, it's the only side where there is a clear discrepancy between what the number is and what it should probably be. You said you would bet this up to seven. It has moved up to six and a half at a couple of books. Still at 6 at bet365. Nothing has. None of my analysis over the past 48 hours has made me walk away from being super confident about the Eagles.
- [35:02]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's still interesting though. When you look in the Action app, it's the most of the bets and the money right now are still in the Rams. So it shows that, you know, what I thought would happen this week is kind of happening, which is, you know, the daytime talk shows, they're going to be on Jalen Hurts, they're going to be asking questions, is he the worst quarterback left out of all the quarterbacks in the playoffs? Can you trust him? Can you trust this Eagles team? Why wouldn't you trust Stafford, a guy who's been there before. Right. And you know, the fact that, that they're look overlooking many little things that we aren't overlooking, which is Eagles match up really well against this Rams team. And now you have. You factor in the fact that this is Stafford outdoors in the rain and the snow, it's going to be maybe 30 degrees, maybe 25 degrees at kickoff here in Philly on Sunday. Like, it's, it does feel very easy. And I, I do wonder why. There was professional money on the Rams early, but now that I know that most. That was just, you know, taking the value, what they saw before they ran the numbers and the fact that basically any guy I've talked to is coming on the other side at this point, they've come in on this Eagles team and yeah, this is gonna, like, to me, this is gonna hit a point of okay, if it got up to seven, I would totally understand guys coming back to their side, taking the Rams once they got up to a touchdown, but still it's six. There's, I think there's still a lot of value here on this Eagle side. And this might not be one of my biggest bets of the weekend just because of that, where it's like, I just don't see a scenario how the Rams pull this one off. Like, I, I don't see how they can get stops defensively and then offensively how inconsistent Stafford's been Now you factor in the elements, it just feels like a really bad matchup for him. And I know that, you know, the Eagles lost Nicobe Dean, who's their green dot. He's their play caller defensively. You know, Fangio joked about it. It's like, there's only three calls per game. He's like, I don't run that unique of a defense. He's like, it's not going to be that tough. It's. It's. The toughest part is losing a leader, obviously, in your defense. But we talk coming into the playoffs, the Eagles were the only team with all 22 of their starters from week one at this point of the season. Now, obviously, they can't say anymore, right? They lost one of their starters on defense, but other than that, they're pretty healthy now. On the flip side, this is the healthiest the Rams have been all year. Like, this is. Their offensive line's totally healthy. They have all their receivers. I mean, we and Chad talked about a little bit on Tuesday, like, losing Higby. I haven't got an update on it, but that's a huge deal for that offense, obviously. Like, that's a really big safety valley for the Rams. And obviously now losing to Kobe Dean, who's, you know, arguably their best cover linebacker, that's even more of a reason to use your tight end and attack that. So that could be an angle if you're trying to play it with the Rams. But I just. The more I look into it, it just feels like the Rams, that was their big moment, their win for the city last week in that game against the Vikings. And the way you. They're going to scheme up this Eagles team, especially with the weather, what it's going to be, which is, you know, either cold, snowy, or wet, that it's going to be a Saquon type of game. And when I go back and I watch that film on that Rams game, it really did look like men playing against college kids. How big the Eagles offensive line is compared to this D line of the Rams. So, you know the Rams new coming in this year, right? They're going to be really experienced, inexperienced, rebuild year. Losing Aaron Donald. The guys have been playing above board, like they're. They have really stepped up, but this is a total, totally different animal than what they face against the Vikings. Even if you go back and watch that Vikings game, there was actually pretty big holes in that game for running. They. They just got behind and they had to pass the ball. Once they had to pass the ball. You saw it just fell apart. Sam Darnold, like, there were multiple times there we held on the ball for too long. You can't say the same about hurts. Like, hurts the type of guy that if the first read's not going to be there, he's going to either pull it down and try to run it or he'll try to make some type of play happen with his feet. Which, you know, Sam Darnold obviously is not the same type of athlete as Jalen. Hurts here. So, yeah, the more I dive into a chad, the more I love it. I'm with you. I was shocked to see this total went back up. So obviously some smart money is coming on the over. Great. Give me better value on a game that's going to be sloppy in the welder elements with this outdoor team and LA coming outdoors. Like, I just feel like this does feel like the classic Philly game we talked on Tuesday a little bit like 31 to 10, 31 to 14, 31. Like just a very low scoring game where, you know, one side puts up a bunch of points, the other side doesn't. So, you know, that's. That's what I'm banking here, is that the Eagles obviously roll, but I just don't think the Rams could keep up with them offensively. And yeah, the more I. More I look at this Rams team and how special of a season they had. Right. I think, you know, they're their Rare spot. They're 100,4 start the year and they made a crazy run. Then the season, I believe, was 9 and 2 to take this division. Incredible. Hats off to this team, what they've done this season. But this just feels like they're finally running into an absolute juggernaut on this Eagles team. And, you know, they had it last week with Jalen Hurts. There's no excuse this week that, yes, he was rusty. He looked rusty. No excuse this week. Full game plan, everything on board. Eagles should absolutely roll this Rams team.
- [40:02]
Chad Millman
Yeah, the number just hasn't made sense all week. Hasn't made sense to me that it's not at 7. To be honest, I talked about this the other day. This line was 3. When they played each other earlier in the season, not that long ago and it was in la. The fact it's only six now and the Eagles to me have gotten significantly better. And I think there's too much value being placed on what the Rams did in prime time against the Vikings. A team that you and I were on, the Rams, a lot of professional betters thought they were on a downward trend and were getting off the Sam Darnold bandwagon after what everyone saw against Detroit. So yeah, bet, bet bet bet Bet.
- [40:49]
Simon Hunter
Away said though there's some amazing trends here. If you are scared off by the number, this Eagle spot is a great user spot. Basically when they're a big favorite like this at home in the playoffs they almost always win outright. Especially under Sirianni. It's been a really great spot. Sirianni struggles with his team have really come on the road in the playoffs, not so much at home. So it's another just a great spot to back this team at home before. Obviously they're most likely going on the road next week to Detroit.
- [41:17]
Chad Millman
Simon it is time for our Big Balls bet of the week presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great under wear and Tommy John makes the greatest we're heading into the Baltimore Ravens at the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are one point favorites now at bet365. Still a couple of one and a halfs out there, but money has been coming back in on the Bills. As we discussed during sharp calls, the total is 51 and a half. We're throwing people a little bit of a curveball. I'll get to that in a second. Just some updates. Zay Flowers did not practice on Wednesday. John Harbaugh said that doesn't necessarily mean he won't play on Sunday, but did not practice. This is a luck rankings under. We discussed liking the the under in this game. It is our big ball bet. Our first Big Balls under presented by Tommy John 51 1/2 bills Ravens this this. We were never going to get there as a big balls with the Bills. I can't get there with the Bills. The wise guys can't get there with the Bills. You might be on an island in some respect with the Bills despite the money moving, but betting the under here feels like ballsy because all anyone wants to do is is talk about the quarterbacks in this game and that is making the number higher than you would expect because of the explosive nature of how these two guys can score points. But in seven playoff games Lamar has never gone over. Even when these two teams played last time and Derek Henry scored on I think the first play of the game it still went under from the original total and like these are run oriented teams. Baltimore's key right there.
- [43:32]
Simon Hunter
That's the key right there what you just said.
- [43:34]
Chad Millman
Baltimore's time of possession fifth in the leagues past three games. It's first Buffalo is fifth. Both our top four in rushing play percentage and top seven in rushing attempts per game. People are just thinking about the quarterbacks and the MVP candidates. They're not thinking about the holistic nature of this game.
- [43:59]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And that's tends what the public does. Right. They just look at the basics of it.
- [44:03]
Chad Millman
They're so silly.
- [44:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And that's why the early money here has come in. I. I'm hoping people listen to this. This is the rare spot I'm like, pull your car over, bet this under now. Because to me all the money is going to come in professionally on the under. And I think the public will join them once they see that. I know this is another weather game, Chad. This is a game 18 degrees, right? They're saying it might be 18 degrees, 10 degrees. It feels like 10 degrees or negative 3 degrees, whatever. They're going to project without lake effect winds because they're saying it might be 15, 20 per hour winds during this game as well. Some lake effect snow as well. So this just. Everything about this says ugly, low scoring game where two teams are both run heavy. And you know, you just touch on like this Bill's identity, especially the second half of the season, it feels like every time I'm watching they're bringing in the extra alignment. Right?
- [44:53]
Chad Millman
Yeah. They're always just gonna say that.
- [44:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. It's the truth though. It's like that's totally what they become because they know they have the ultimate weapon in the backfield. I mean, obviously Lamar is the ultimate weapon, but Josh Allen's right there with him where it's like you can do the read option with him and Cook and you bring in that extra lineman, you let Josh Allen dictate the play. If they don't step up to stop the run, if they're going to keep the safeties back to stop the the passing down the field. The Bills are more than happy to run the ball all day and that's what they've been doing. Like defense is having to respect Josh Allen's big arm and the fact that he is not turning the ball over. It's really changed everything with this Bill's team. They can be boring, long drive, conservative and just run the ball. I mean Cook, you know, we don't talk about him enough because of the Josh Allen factor. But it's like this guy is a top five, top six running back right now in football. Like he is that rare breed that when you get down towards the red zone, he can find a way every time they get in there. Like he's, he's got that type of town where he can find those holes and squeak in to get those touchdowns. And, you know, they've really relied on him this season. We're giving him more touches the season going along. And you know, the fact that this is 51 and a half, I think Chad just talked about it. It's really feels like an inflated line because of public reception. It's the two MVPs playing against each other. Like this is going to be a type of shootout. And the books are being rewarded right now. The money, the bets, all of it right now are still on the over. So I want people to get ahead of it this easily. Could shift two points by kickoff just because of the weather. And I think that once more news outlets start talking about, once more, you know, sports shows start talking about, that's when more people are going to start coming on this total. Now, do you want to get to the sides, Chad?
- [46:33]
Chad Millman
Well, listen, I love the sides at Thanksgiving. I'm a huge sweet potato guy.
- [46:38]
Simon Hunter
Are you dug in though? That's what the people want to know. Is Chad dug in on the Ravens? Are you, are you betting the Ravens?
- [46:44]
Chad Millman
I might just go all in on the under.
- [46:47]
Simon Hunter
You, you pick a side because people are giving me. They're like, they're like, this is the classic spot where Chad and Simon are going to count this as a win no matter what side they go on. No, I'm going to make Chad pick a side. I will pick a side and one of us will dance another side's grave.
- [47:03]
Chad Millman
All right, well, this is going to have to be a scooter let game. I have not made a decision. Part of me is just sort of hoping the money keeps coming in on the Bills and I can get it back to pick.
- [47:11]
Simon Hunter
That's true. That's true.
- [47:13]
Chad Millman
So like, I don't, I don't feel rushed to choose a side in this game at all. But I will say as A favorite of three points or less or an underdog, Lamar is 26 and nine against the spread in the playoffs and the regular seasons. The only six times in his career he is open as an underdog and ended up closing as a favorite. He's 6. 0 against the spread and 6. 0 straight up. Like it's very hard not to want to back Lamar, who also I think is leading a more well rounded team. However, Josh Allen versus teams that allow less than 21 points per game, 69% against the spread. That is comparable to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers drew Brees. So there's, there's ways to love both sides here.
- [48:19]
Simon Hunter
I told you. Overall though, like you just said, the numbers do favorite the Ravens. Like when you really dive into the 100%. Yeah.
- [48:25]
Chad Millman
If you look at, if you look at the overall matchup, the Ravens are the better team. Right. And look, it's reflected in the line. They are very short favorites on the road against the number two seed, the market. The bookmakers are telling you that the Ravens are the better team in this matchup. If you don't play this game on the field, obviously I want to get the best number I can. I don't feel rushed to bet the Ravens yet. I'm still frustrated that I didn't bet him at +2. I'm definitely leaning to the Ravens. We talked about the first half the other day betting the Ravens at minus a half point. Stuckey on the Action Network pod talked about the Ravens first half on the money line. I feel like every time at minus 110. I feel like every time Stuckey talks about betting the Ravens in the first half, they cover. It's, it's, it's weird. But they odds are pretty good.
- [49:21]
Simon Hunter
I think they're like the best first half team other than Houston ever.
- [49:25]
Chad Millman
And they're, and by the way, the Bills are the second are the best second half team ever.
- [49:29]
Simon Hunter
And I told you that's, that's what like there's a bunch of trends that I love with the Bills, but that was the biggest one that jumped out to me that, yes, the Ravens win the first half. 13:10. Yeah, you cover your first half bet, but that is like you're dead to me. You're dead. If you're, if you're a Ravens backer, you need at least a 10 point lead head into the second half because Josh Allen all season has flipped a switch and we saw it literally started week one. I mean me and Chad were on Arizona week one against this Bills team feeling great. I think we had, we had six and a half or seven maybe and Arizona dominates the first half. Josh Allen came out the second half, just absolutely dominated, blew them out and it basically set the tone for the whole season where it doesn't matter where he's at, what his team struggles are in the second half. It's just Josh Allen, he makes like there are no adjustments the other team can make to slow him down. And we've seen late here though I think the Bills defense, second half has really caught up to it. They've been great at making these second half adjustments. And really helping obviously this Bills team stay in these type of games. So yeah, I've. I'm. I, I'm with Chad that like I feel way more confidence in betting the under here. But I have to pick a side. I am betting a side. I am betting the Bills. But I mean I'm not banging the table. Like man, I'm talking to some pros here. Like, you idiot, this is the easiest money in your life. You got to take the Ravens here. And it's just like, what the fuck do you know, dude? Like you're feeling that confident about betting this number. I feel. I feel more confident or other bets on the sides than I do in this one where it's like I'm, I'm betting here on my model obviously. But it's also just a playoff feeling of this. This does feel like the type of spot to back. Not that he's doubted here. Josh Allen, but it feels like it, right? I mean you're going through the playoff numbers. He doesn't have a great record either in the playoffs. Right. And that we talked about. That's never, I never put that on him. I've always put that on the defense that they've kind of let him down. These exact spots. We're having Stefan Diggs drop a wall right between his hands. Like, yeah, I, I know the Bills have been a cursed franchise and they've had bad luck in these exact spots where on the flip side, I mean, fuck, dude. The Ravens became a franchise on what Chad? 1998 and they have two Super Bowls. Like they don't. This is not some long suffering fan base. This is a fan base that's been spoiled beyond belief. And yeah, Evan has an amazing stat. Josh Allen, 0 and 3 is a dog in his career. But I think he little thing that you know, during the same to us in the playoffs. Owen threw as a dog in the playoffs and straight up that's all against Mahomes though. Like when I'm Houston. Oh, Houston. Oh, right, right. We did bet that one. I do remember that game. Houston two and a half. Yeah. That is weird thinking back to that. Holy Watson, man. Damn. That's right. Yeah. So I don't know. It's. It feels like Alan I've just viewed as kryptonite as a Chiefs. I just think this is, you know, this not. This is career defining, but this is definitely off season defining. Like the amount of shit that's going to come on the other side. Whoever loses this game, especially if Josh Allen doesn't live up to the moment or Lamar doesn't live up to the moment. I mean, it's all there. This is what, you know, TV lives for. Talking about this in the off season. So yeah, this, this obviously is the biggest game of the weekend. No doubt.
- [52:39]
Chad Millman
This is the, you talk about sides. This is the main course, brother. This is like the game, the ratings that we should, we should set a line for what the ratings will be like. If ratings have generally been 25, 26 million viewers for the playoffs, I think this goes to 28, 28 million viewers for this. Let's, let's keep an eye on that so we can talk about it next week. Matt Mitchell, make a note if Matt Mitchell survives the weekend because we know the Bills are long suffering fans because Matt Mitchell talks about it non stop. It is, is he's making zero long term plans right now because we don't know if, we don't even know if he'll be here to record the podcast on Sunday night because of his love for the Bills. Yeah, I feel like my biggest bets this weekend are going to be the under and the Eagles and if I bet on the Ravens, it's going to be like a tiny little taste or maybe the first half. I have no courage on this game.
- [53:41]
Simon Hunter
I can't fault you. I told you there's, there's smart professional money on that Raven side, so.
- [53:45]
Chad Millman
And I'm a professional, Simon.
- [53:48]
Simon Hunter
Okay, definitely say it's, it's more, it's, it's more of the professional side as we sit here on Thursday. But like Chad just talked a little bit about, there is some respected money coming at this point on the Bill side and there has been some buyback and we have seen this number move down to one. So it is a really torn game between professionals this one, Simon.
- [54:07]
Chad Millman
We have some big road underdogs here in the divisional round and one of the biggest thrills a gambler can experience is watching the quarterback of a big underdog, with the game just out of reach, masterfully march his team down the field to score a futile last second touchdown to cover the spread. That's what we call a back door cover. But after the thrill wears off, it's only natural to think, what is covering my back door. And that's where the unrivaled, breathable comfort of Tommy John steps in. Because with thousands of five star reviews, Tommy John has been on the cutting edge of covering America's back doors with flexible comfort for years. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?
- [54:58]
Simon Hunter
Because comfort is king right now, you.
- [55:01]
Chad Millman
Can shop TommyJohn.com Favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at TommyJohn.com Favorites. That's TommyJohn.com Favorites. I'm laughing a little bit because, as is tradition, I'm a trained monkey. I just. I read whatever is in front of me. I have no idea what the ad read is going to be. And a lot of times, Matt Mitchell, all credit to him, will create entirely new reads that I'm reading in real time for the first time. And so when I saw the line, that's what we got. That's what we call a backdoor cover, I was like, oh, God, where is he going to take this pun? I have no idea. How is he going to work this into an acceptable ad for our sponsor, Tommy John? And he did it, and it makes me giggle every single time. He's a genius. I hope the Bills win, because we'd truly be at a loss.
- [55:57]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirror ball trophy from Dan Dancing with the Star. So where else you can find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit everything, because we got lots to say. I. I texted you, and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but, like, all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like, it's all colored. They changed it, and the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest. Honest. It was a little pink.
- [56:40]
Simon Hunter
There was something sentimental when you. When you send it. It was like, do I send the heart now?
- [56:47]
Bobby Bones
I don't like the color edition.
- [56:48]
Simon Hunter
It's extremely pink.
- [56:49]
Bobby Bones
Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [56:57]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast and the National Hockey League. It's NHL unscripted with Firkin Demers.
- [57:05]
Jason Demers
Hey.
- [57:05]
Simon Hunter
Hey.
- [57:05]
Jason Demers
I'm Jason Immers, former 700 game, NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst, and boy, oh, boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [57:14]
Adnan Virk
I love you, by the way, on NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [57:22]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture and you know what, tons of back and forth and all things NHL.
- [57:32]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're soon gonna find out we're not just hockey talk. We're into all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear on NHL.
- [57:42]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Ferkie.
- [57:45]
Adnan Virk
That shirt of cause of ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burkin Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [57:57]
Justin Penick
What's going on, everybody? This is Justin Pennik from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast alongside Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We're rolling three times a week on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're talking about the MVP race. Is Josh Allen going to pull it out? Lamar Jackson? Can Saquon Barkley even break the rushing record? Can the Steelers keep up their momentum? We talk about everything, we break it down. Stats, analytics. And of course, Chris Rose is bringing his perspective on being a pro in the media world as well. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did. Hope you could join us for the postseason run.
- [58:46]
Chad Millman
Simon, I have said my biggest bets are going to be the under and the Eagles. Tell me what your biggest bets are going to be.
- [58:52]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm, I'm heavy on the Eagles side right now. Definitely heavy on this under like you just talked about in this game. Same goes for teasers. Like, if you want to join me right now, have a ton of teasers with the Chiefs Eagles, tons of teasers with the Commanders, with the Bills. Obviously love the commanders. And you know, like I said, I, I've. I've taken the plus nine and a half and I've thrown a little bet, just a little bet on the money line here. It's just something I have to do where I, you know, this is the only real dog in this, this matchup that I actually believe in that can pull off the upset. So I have to do it. Like, there's got to be one shocker, right? This can't be the year of chalk, the year of boring. Chad, can we get an upset here in this Divisional round. So, yeah, for my biggest bets, not a shocker. Love Eagles, especially even at minus six. And love that under in that Bills Raven game. Just that feels like I have it at 48 and a half. Even if it came down by two points, I think you're still getting good value at 49 and a half. So like we talk all the time, key numbers, people. 51 and a half is a key number. Like if you go mathematically how often that lands on 51, you're still getting great value right now, taking this under a 51 and a half.
- [60:03]
Chad Millman
When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.
- [60:08]
Simon Hunter
Let's play Scooch Roulette.
- [60:12]
Chad Millman
Scoot roulette. You'll be on the Bills, I'll be on the Ravens and we'll just do it. I never win. I've just cursed the Ravens. You're welcome, Matt Mitchell. I'm doing it for you, just so you'll be around and your whole neighborhood gets ice cream and you get to eat your wings with your gloves on. But that's what it's going to be, Scooter. Let Bills and Ravens, let's go. All right, before we get out of here, let's bring in director of research Evan Abrams for the final word. Evan. This ought to be good. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.
- [60:47]
Evan Abrams
This is gonna be a mess. To answer one of Simon's questions from earlier. So you talked about Hertz and a teaser. Well, how about this favorite of seven or less at home or an underdog. Hertz is 17 and five against the spread in his career. 20 and two in a six point teaser in that spot. So basically asking him to win the game, but not, not too bad there.
- [61:08]
Chad Millman
Well, that. So to your point though, like putting the Eagles in a six point teaser right now and getting them at pick with either the Chiefs at two and a half or the Bills at seven and a half is as good a play as what I did, which is Chiefs minus two and a half, Bills.
- [61:22]
Evan Abrams
Plus seven and a half feels like a decent leg. Obviously, if you like the Eagles, it's the money line. Let's talk about the cold game you started with, which is Houston and Kansas City. So Houston will attempt to do what hasn't been done in almost 30 years. So road playoff teams since 2003, 9 and 13 straight up in 8 plus mile an hour, winds 25 degrees or less. Now they are.04 when they are dome teams losing by 16.8 points per game. The last dome team I found to win in those temperatures on the road in 25 degrees or less in the playoffs. 95, 96 Colts in Kansas City. Jim Harbaugh at quarterback there. So been a minute, let's see if Houston can pull the all time shocker. So I kind of wanted to talk Washington and Detroit here for a second and there's been a little bit of waffling. So a lot of people like Detroit, a lot of people like Washington. I'll just toss out two different angles here. So it's not often we see a super dominant team like Detroit. So 75 plus ATS win percentage entering the playoffs, plus being a favorite of nine or more. It's only happened three times last 20 years. Aaron Rodgers 2008 won by 22. Drew Brees 2012 won by 17. Tom Brady 2017 won by 18. So if you like Detroit and you think they are the juggernaut they are walking in, sounds decent to me. Now the one angle I looked at because listen, Washington scoring 28 points per game, obviously Jaden putting up a ton of points on the ground through the air. I thought this was interesting. So playoff underdogs of seven and a half or more just simply off the bat, 32 and 29 against the spread last 20 years. But what happens if the underdog scores say 17 points? Those dogs are 26 and 13 against the spread, 67% if they score 21 plus 18 and 8 69%. So to me it's more of a question of Washington's team total than it is the actual spread, but just two different ways to look at it. And then I found this interesting. So basically this Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson game is pretty much 12 in MVP. Now obviously Saquon could sneak in there or whatever. We haven't seen the votes yet, but if you look at top two players to meet in the playoffs in MVP voting, It'll be the 14th time according to FTN who did this research. But I went a little deeper because I wanted to see when was the last time one of those two quarterbacks or players were home underdogs in the game last happened 1976. So the fact that Josh Allen is going to close as a home underdog in this game between two people, two quarterbacks in MVP voting felt, you know, like the line maybe didn't make sense but obviously it's how you put it there. Now the last time it happened, 1976 Steelers at Baltimore cold it was Bert Jones versus Jack Lambert. So that is the last time it actually happened. 14 matchups between, you know, why this line makes sense.
- [64:27]
Chad Millman
You know why it makes sense? Because Lamar Jackson should win the mvp. He should be the odds on favorite to win the mvp.
- [64:36]
Evan Abrams
I agree. I completely agree.
- [64:38]
Chad Millman
And I've been saying, simon, you're a hater. Simon's a hater. He doesn't agree, but Evan agrees.
- [64:45]
Evan Abrams
All right, I got one more.
- [64:46]
Chad Millman
We're applying logic and reason to this. We're not getting emotional about the narrative.
- [64:52]
Evan Abrams
Correct.
- [64:52]
Simon Hunter
We are.
- [64:53]
Evan Abrams
And that's why the line, honestly in this game is probably one of the more interesting we've seen.
- [64:56]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [64:56]
Evan Abrams
I mean, I don't think anyone really can choose between these two teams, but I think the public has because it likes Baltimore in this spot line down to one right now too. So I really, truly believe no one has any idea. I'll leave you with just a spot play. Play. So for Washington and the Rams, both won last week as underdogs, both now on short rest on the road. Those teams are 36 and 76, 32% straight up, including 3 and 11 straight up in the playoffs since 2003. So an upset there by either Washington or the Rams would truly be odds defying.
- [65:31]
Chad Millman
An interesting parlay could be Washington team total over and Washington to cover. Because if the odds are so great and the trend is so great that teams who score over that number of 17 or 21, which their commanders can acceptably do, and those teams tend to cover, that's a fun little parlay.
- [66:00]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Also, if you're betting the over like I've talked about, same game parlay, like if you want to throw in David Montgomery, Terry McLaurin, anytime touchdown, like go, go crazy if you're trying to do something crazy like that. Because obviously if we're getting to 55 points, we're gonna need a lot of touchdowns. Chad. So I know we don't talk a lot about same game parlays, but this is the exact scenario where you see those dumb tickets of guy bets $10 to win 20,000 because these same game parlayed all these different touchdown scores. That's basically what we need here if we want to hit this over. So yeah, it's another angle to play in that game.
- [66:32]
Chad Millman
I like having so few games. We can get so much deeper as a reminder. And what's that? F I was.
- [66:40]
Evan Abrams
They got to find Tim Patrick on that ticket as well. That's going to be a good one this week.
- [66:43]
Simon Hunter
There you go.
- [66:43]
Chad Millman
That's a good idea. I like it. I'm writing that down. I got a whole page of other alternative bets here. All right.
- [66:52]
Simon Hunter
Chris Raybon special.
- [66:53]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that is. That is. I'm sure we'll get some of that and convince me. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5, sign up using promo code. Favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5, get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or 1-800- bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page. Later than usual Reminder. Later than usual Sunday night after the Ravens Bills game. To recap all the divisional round games, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback as a gift. Till next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about.
- [68:14]
Evan Abrams
Has a gambling problem, help is available 24.
- [68:17]
Chad Millman
7 at 1-800- gambler.
- [68:20]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you gonna find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [68:50]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [68:55]
Jason Demers
Jason immerse here, and after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [69:00]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat with the sport that we love.
- [69:05]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in, too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on Le table.
- [69:14]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Vir and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [69:22]
Justin Penick
What's up, everyone? It's Justin Penick from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week, on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays, breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcast and you will be glad you did.