The Herd with Colin Cowherd: NFL Best Bets Divisional Round – Detailed Summary

Release Date: January 16, 2025

In this episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, hosted by Chad Millman and Simon Hunter from the Volume Podcast Network, the discussion centers around strategic betting choices for the NFL Divisional Round. The hosts delve deep into game analyses, betting trends, and offer insights to guide listeners in making informed wagers during the high-stakes postseason.

1. Overview of the Divisional Round Betting Landscape

Chad Millman kicks off the conversation by setting the stage for the Divisional Round:

"[02:52] Chad Millman: Today is our NFL Divisional Best Bets episode as we did last week. We will not only be reviewing the sides for this weekend's games, but we are adding any other bets we like as well."

Simon Hunter echoes Chad's enthusiasm, emphasizing the transitional phase of the season:

"[02:18] Simon Hunter: It's my favorite time of year. It's like you have one foot into the best football of the year and the other foot in off-season mode already."

2. In-Depth Game Analyses and Betting Strategies

a. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

The Chiefs versus Texans matchup is scrutinized with a focus on betting the Chiefs:

"[07:30] Simon Hunter: There's just as much smart money on the Bills side keeping this number where it's at."

Chad discusses the historical performance of quarterback Patrick Mahomes as a favorite:

"[05:43] Simon Hunter: ...Mahomes is going to kill you. The guy has seen it all. This is the exact moment he lives for."

They analyze weather conditions, trends, and Mahomes' performance in cold games to justify their leaning towards the Chiefs.

b. Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

This game is highlighted as a pivotal matchup with conflicting opinions on the over/under bets:

"[04:27] Chad Millman: Bets are rolling in. Lines are moving. Decisions need to be made."

Simon and Chad explore the strengths of both teams, ultimately recommending betting the under due to strong running games and defensive capabilities.

"[24:09] Chad Millman: Washington plus nine and a half at Detroit total 55 and a half. Simon says you like the over a lot."

c. Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions

The Commanders vs. Lions game is analyzed with an emphasis on selecting Washington as the underdog:

"[25:27] Simon Hunter: ...the super bowl era over the past three years and four years against the spread."

They discuss Washington's offensive strategies and Detroit's defensive trends, advocating for Washington to potentially pull off an upset.

d. Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Rams vs. Eagles matchup is dissected with a strong preference for the Eagles:

"[40:07] Chad Millman: ...this is their year, like we talked about. This is lined up perfectly."

Chad emphasizes the Eagles' defensive prowess and the unfavorable conditions for the Rams, recommending a bet on the Eagles despite the odds.

e. Additional Insights on Houston vs. Chiefs

Evan Abrams joins the discussion to provide further statistical backing:

"[61:07] Evan Abrams: ...the last dome team I found to win in those temperatures on the road in 25 degrees or less in the playoffs was the 95, 96 Colts in Kansas City."

His analysis supports the earlier inclination to favor the Chiefs, citing historical performances in similar conditions.

3. Betting Strategies and Recommendations

The hosts offer various betting strategies tailored to different game dynamics:

a. Over/Under Bets

Chad and Simon frequently discuss the importance of considering weather conditions and team strategies when betting the over or under:

"[17:02] Simon Hunter: ...we're about to get into it. This is going to be a week dictated by the weather in many ways."

They advocate for the under in games like Ravens vs. Bills, citing strong running games and defensive strengths.

b. Teasers and Same Game Parlays

The duo suggests leveraging teaser bets and same game parlays to maximize potential returns:

"[20:10] Simon Hunter: ...there's great value here on this total for this Lions Commanders game."

"[66:32] Simon Hunter: ...this is the exact scenario where you see those dumb tickets of guy bets $10 to win 20,000 because these same game parlayed all these different touchdown scores."

c. Backdoor Covers and Strategic Betting

They discuss the excitement and risk associated with backdoor covers, where underdog teams score late to cover spreads:

"[54:06] Chad Millman: We have some big road underdogs here in the divisional round and one of the biggest thrills a gambler can experience is watching the quarterback of a big underdog..."

4. Key Trends and Statistical Insights

Evan Abrams provides valuable statistical insights that bolster their betting recommendations:

"[64:26] Chad Millman: You know why it makes sense? Because Lamar Jackson should win the MVP. He should be the odds on favorite to win the MVP."

He highlights how historical trends favor certain teams and quarterbacks in specific betting scenarios, reinforcing the hosts' strategies.

5. Notable Quotes

Throughout the episode, Chad and Simon deliver memorable lines that encapsulate their betting philosophies:

"[32:05] Simon Hunter: ...I'm just trying to look at... This is their year, like we talked about. This is lined up perfectly."

"[49:24] Chad Millman: ...the Commanders have won their last five games on the final play of the game. That's not even a joke."

6. Conclusion and Final Recommendations

As the episode nears its end, Chad and Simon summarize their primary betting choices:

• Biggest Bets:
  • Chad: Prefers the under on the Bills vs. Ravens and the Eagles over the Rams.
  • Simon: Aligns with betting the under and backing the Eagles, while also entertaining the possibility of an upset from Washington.

"[58:52] Simon Hunter: ...for my biggest bets, not a shocker. Love Eagles, especially even at minus six. And love that under in that Bills Raven game."

They encourage listeners to consider these strategies while remaining mindful of potential risks, especially in high-volatility games.

7. Final Thoughts

Chad and Simon wrap up the episode by reinforcing their key betting strategies and encouraging responsible gambling:

"[66:51] Simon Hunter: ...even if it came down by two points, I think you're still getting good value at 49 and a half."

"[67:19] Chad Millman: ...for those who are responding to our Tuesday conversation. We are very influential lines move."

The episode concludes with a reminder to gamble responsibly, ensuring that listeners remain informed and cautious in their betting endeavors.

Key Takeaways:

• Favor the Chiefs and Eagles: Both teams show strong statistical backing and favorable conditions, making them prime candidates for betting sides.

• Under on High-Scoring Games: Considering weather and defensive strengths, betting the under on games like Ravens vs. Bills offers value.

• Leverage Betting Strategies: Utilizing teasers, same game parlays, and being open to backdoor covers can enhance betting outcomes.

• Stay Informed with Trends: Historical data and current season trends are pivotal in making informed betting decisions.

By meticulously analyzing game dynamics, historical performances, and incorporating strategic betting methods, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide listeners with a comprehensive guide to navigating the NFL Divisional Round betting landscape.