← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - BEST NFL Week 2 bets: Eagles-Chiefs, Giants-Cowboys, Seahawks-Steelers, Bears-Lions & more
01:17:08
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- [00:01]
A
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Shad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional bettor, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [00:27]
B
Chad. What a week, brother.
- [00:28]
A
Dude, crazy week. We're feeling good, but like any professional outfit, you know what we do? We look past and we move forward. We get ready. We don't rest in our loyals laurels. This is our Thursday week two episode. Gonna narrow down the options on our quest to agree together as a team on our five favorite picks for the week. Reminder, subscribe to Sharp or Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. Let's get into it, brother. First gotta check in Wise guy hotline. Wise guy hotline. What are you waiting for? And did I startle you?
- [01:19]
B
Yeah. Let's start with the games that disagree on Chad. Let's start. Let's get those out of the way. Last year, I mean, last week I think we got a little lucky, right? We were on the right side of a lot of the disagreements and that's how it is, right? The, the pro line. The dog is not always the right side. And me and Chad, we have that hard lesson ourselves. We really love these dogs. We have to remember chalk does win. It's. It's lined up to be another back and forth week this week. And so let's start with that Dallas game. I mean, I got a ton of calls. Just guys loving that Giants team even more. You know, I saw Bland got banged up, right? He's missing this game. It's a big deal, especially when you're going against guys like neighbors. But it's my whole point. It's Russell Wilson behind a bad offensive line. So I think maybe we'll talk a little bit more about that one. But yeah, pretty, pretty shocking. All the calls I got about just more Giants love. I was like, you didn't get burned last week? And they're like, ah, they make excuses, reasons why I didn't work out. And that's just how it is right when you're playing this number. So I, I got some good trends that back up the Cowboys and that.
- [02:24]
A
I, I'm, I'm excited to dig into this game. This Giants team feels like the wise guy version of the Panthers last year and I, I don't get it. And so I'm excited for us to hear your trends and dig in A little bit. And I'm excited that we're not getting suckered in by the Giants.
- [02:45]
B
Agree. And yeah, this is one of those. Like Chad's saying, it's. We'll talk more about it. But this. This Chiefs game, tons of calls about our. Our like all right, maybe it's more of me. My love for the Eagles the spot and I'm excited to break that down one, that one down with you because it's making me hold even more firm in my position.
- [03:08]
A
Wow.
- [03:09]
B
Side I'm on. So I. Yeah. That Eagles Chiefs game that is going to be pros versus shows public is going to be heavy. Heavy on the Eagles side. And basically any professional I've talked to for the most part is on the chief side and I've heard their reasoning. I'm excited to give more of mine on the show about why I'm staying where I am. And the last one that they hated our pick on and it's more directed once again towards me again is my love for Minnesota. I owned up to it to them on the phone as well. My love on the Vikings. I still love it. I had gotten info about Drake London potentially missing this game and him being really banged up. He was limited yesterday in practice. I watched him practice. He looked good. He made a really good catch. Now, I don't know if that's just because it's practice and everything like that, but he moved well, in my opinion. I don't know if that shoulder is that big of an injury. Rye. When I got the info, I was like, oh my God, he's on the road now. Appendix without his number one receiver, Drake London. This number is going to balloon up. It's gone the other way. As you see, it's. It's dropped now from four and a half to four to three and a half. And now Hard Rock is down to three. So that's another game I'm sure we'll talk more about, but.
- [04:21]
A
Oh, yeah, yeah.
- [04:22]
B
The. The ones they love, obviously for our early sides. You know, we do a Sunday night show, people, if you want to check it out. It's. It's a really fun show. We break down our past games from the week and we give out early lines. We nailed a couple, right? Or I. I really did. In my. My early bets. I look back where I gave out Colts plus three. The pros love it. They're down to one and a half. And I talked to a lot of pros. I love this one. So I'm sure we're gonna break that game down. Even more people are messaging me, panicking, like, aren't you over overvaluing this Colts team? And we talk with them. It's all about the line, right? Like if there was threes out there, even our last show, there's still two and a halfs out there. We, we just go where the value is. And that to me was the early line value. And another one, Titans, we love them. Talk to a bunch of pros joined us on this bandwagon. Another ugly dog at home. That's a pretty big spread. Jets, another game I think we're going to break down. Got a bunch of calls about the love for that and then you know, finally Chad's love. Seahawks got a bunch of calls about that. So yeah, I'm excited to break all these games down. Just a lot of love on the dogs this week and I, I not shocked about the calls we got about the lines we hate. But like we say, the public does win. I have to pick and choose my spots where I try to ride with the public and the favorites in these spots.
- [05:41]
A
I love it. I love it. They, they've. You, they really did get into every game that we're going to talk about and it's great. And what's interesting is I think other than the Chiefs Eagles, I think you and I are pretty aligned on a couple of the games that they hate and we love. But let's, let's get into it. First game, Cleveland at Baltimore. This had been on our radar. The line currently at Hard Rock bet is 12. It opened at 12 and a half. Got that down, all the way down to 11 and a half and has now come back up. You know, it's, it's so hard, right? This is when a one game sample size reeks total havoc. Like trying to dissect and translate the weaknesses of the Cincy defense. That or the Cincy offense that made the Cleveland defense so dominant. And if there are any similarities with the Ravens offense, of which there are not. Meanwhile, how can Joe Flacco take advantage of a Ravens defense? When we were dissecting the Cincinnati game, we believe the narrative for the Browns in that game had to be slow the game down, rely on the defense, rely on Joe Flacco not making mistakes, try to run the ball. I think it's much harder to do that against this Ravens team. As big as this number is. I don't, I don't love it. Like, and there's not even like a ton of trends to back up playing this big of a dog in the division. Like Everything. I feel like we will find five games that we like more.
- [07:24]
B
Yeah. And I, I definitely went back and watched that since the game. I heard from a lot of Bengals fans and they're right. I did miss. Misspoke that I said that. You know, the Browns were able to run the ball really well against them. They weren't. They averaged two yards per carry. But what they did attack him was the running backs catching the ball out of the backfield like that was. That's what I missed because every time I feel like I looked and look at that game, all of a sudden it was the rookie Samson, I believe his name is, rushing for nine yards, but it's him receiving the ball in the backfield. So that was a fair criticism. Chad, I don't know if he's gonna crow yet on stored because he did look really good in the game against the run. He played well. I'll give that. That kid credit. We had a lot of questions about him so far. One game in, he looks like a first round pick, so.
- [08:09]
A
Oh, you're talking about Shemar Stewart, the rookie for the Bengals. Okay. Yeah.
- [08:12]
B
You notoriously have hated the.
- [08:14]
A
Yeah, I've. I've been against this pick from the beginning. It felt like a classic Mike Mamula pick. Let's choose an athlete even though he didn't produce in college. So agree with you. I will have to eat it.
- [08:28]
B
Yeah, he might hit. He looks good. And you know, when I, when I break this one down. You brought it up. There's trends that actually say this is bad. Taking a dog this big in division on the road early in the season. So, you know, same thing as you went on the Internet. Try to find as much as I could about this exact spot. And it's, it's true. I, I got. I think I'm just too attached to this Browns team because I just see the ways they can keep this close. Right. That secondary, they have issues right now. Right. That is the weakness of those Ravens team, it's fair to say. And this Browns team we saw, they have weapons on the outside that can, you know, go downfield and make plays. So tempted. I'm tempted to be right. There's other games I like more, so I'll stay away from it. And you know, at the end, if you want to talk about Ravens for Survivor, we can do that because, you know, this is a good spot for them, obviously. But yeah, this number looked like it was heading towards 9 and a half 10. Thought we were gonna get a Ravens number. It's. It's gone the other way. It's up to 12 now. So if it gets up to 13, I'll. I'll be the guy on Sunday throwing one out on the Browns but not forcing this one in the contest either.
- [09:35]
A
Yeah, and the move actually tells me when there's midweek moves like this as much as there is sort of an expanded universe of sports bettors. When I see a move from 11 and a half back to 12, that to me tells me there's wise guy money coming in on the Ravens. And so that makes me a little bit more hesitant. New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys. This number's down to five. You mentioned the wise guys have been coming into the Giants. I, I don't get it. It's moved down also because of Duron Bland and the injury. I'm with you. I feel like we got so burned last year playing numbers with really ineffective quarterbacks. And I mentioned the Panthers as a team that last year we got burned again and again and again. Similarities here abound. Like they've got a really ineffective quarterback, they've got a really bad offensive line. I think those two things are dual Achilles heel that counteract any benefit from having the leak neighbors against a depleted secondary for the Cowboys or for that matter a really good defensive line for the Giants. I'm just not buying. And I was more impressed with Dak Prescott than looking back than I even was after the game. And if not for a couple drops by CD Lamb, they might win that game. So I'm getting more and more comfortable with the, with the Cowboys here. I bet him at five and a half and I'm bummed because if I had known about the Bland injury and you know, could have gotten more half point of value. But I don't, I don't mind the Cowboys here.
- [11:15]
B
Yeah, it's moving. I mean it's, it's, it's five and a half minus five right now at Hard Rock. It's getting down to four and a half. It looks like here in Jersey at Hard Rock, like the numbers leading towards that way and we just talked about that's professional money coming in pretty heavy moving it. And we didn't even talk about week one. You know, I tend to like to bet with the book. Right. That's to me always the smart, safer option. And I feel more confident in my position if I am with the book. But I go against them obviously in a ton of spots. But last week we didn't really talk about it. It was historical. Right. It was probably one of the worst weeks Ever to start the year for the betting public, they were 3 and 13 against the spread with teams that closest favorites 0 and 5 on the teams that were getting more than 60% of the bet. Right. So it was just nightmare. One in ten total on teams 60 or more against this getting, like, how much money was getting bet on them in the tickets in week one. Just historical. Horrible week one for the betting public on these favorites. So it is a little scary. We're stepping into it on this one, right? We're either. We're kind of. We always joke about this with the roulette wheel, but it's true where it's like, okay, black is just hit 10 times in a row. We're going red here, right? That's. That's what this kind of spot is. Because this is very public. Like, we both know that this is.
- [12:33]
A
It's very public.
- [12:35]
B
Yeah. I talked to a lot of these bookmakers and they're like, this is going to be one of the ones we need. But at one of the ones they needed. Just like last week, right? Last week there was no big upset, which was shocking. How bad the public did straight up favorites went 13 and three straight up. So just like last year and we're going to talk about that. I think it's the end of days for our underdog moneyline run Robin. I can't keep losing money, Chad. It feels like two years now. I'm just getting killed because the favorites are just. They're not covering, but they're winning. It's. It's very bizarre right now. So, yeah, you know, this. This exact spot is really a Dak Prescott spot. And I get the hesitation because there are injuries to this Cowboys defense, but when you dive into the Dak Prescott numbers, it's pretty amazing how good he's been. His career against the Giants, exact spot. So he's 13 and two straight up 10 and five ats against the giants. His only two losses in his career against the Giants, Chad, was against Eli Manning. So he's won 13 straight against the Giants. So I. I got a ton of calls and messages about. It's. It's probably true. I'd have to. I'd have to go back and look, but me, Chad, we. This is our seventh season, three years we've lost Survivor on the Cowboys. They are literally. There are black widow. Every time we touch them, we die. Like, they get us every time. And I. This is why I'm not. I'm not saying I'm forcing it in, but I'm like, this is the best spot and we'll just get it out of the way. We'll be done with the Cowboys in week two. But I've heard a lot of, a lot of worried fans and listeners of the show being like, you guys always take the Cowboys in the spot and get burned. But those Prescott's numbers make me really confident. And you know, we've seen it time and time again. They could come out sluggish in the first half. Like I heard some pros that talk about that trend about these teams early in the year playing like a Thursday on a Friday, then playing against the team on short rest. The team on short rest actually comes out more prepared. It looks like a more in rhythm in the first half of those games. Okay, take Giants first half then, but full game. I'm, I'm very confident in this Cowboys team. I think it's a great number getting great value and it's, it comes back to just, I just don't know how Russell Wilson, that offense moves and scores the ball. And you know, Prescott, that was, that was a loss. That team is really, really, really trying to get the taste out of their mouth. That guy was just a great spot to back them here. Even if they're not as good as I predict them to be, I think to the general public they are better than most people realize.
- [15:02]
A
It just goes to show you what a massive difference when we talked about this effective, competent, better than competent quarterback play can matter, like how much of a difference it makes, right? A diminished offensive line. But if Dak can move in the pocket and get outside the pocket and make some plays or keep the play alive, that makes a difference versus a Russell Wilson who's just become completely ineffective in a shell of what he used to be. I will pick a bone with one thing you said. I'm not a huge fan of the quarterback versus team stats because these teams change so much year after year after year. There's no reason to think like he's going to be better against the Giants than he is against any other team. He has more chances to beat the Giants. The Cowboys have generally been better than the Giants since the Eli Manning days. I will say though, Dak is profitable. And again for me, like the trends are the last thing I use to influence my decision making and my bet. Like it's so much more about on field and situational analysis. They're the supporting evidence. They're not the argument Dak is profitable as a favorite in this spot, meaning in the division. I did the math on this yesterday when the line was at six, six or more. He's profitable. You lower it and it's even more profitable. So not hating this cowboy spot. Not hating it at all.
- [16:33]
B
I'm going to give another trend. Just because you just said you dislike trends. I'm going to give some more trends. Now even I got another trend for this game. No sacks taken. So Jordan loves fits this. The Jags fit this. The Cowboys fit this in week one. Teams that don't give up a sack. They are 46, 32 and 1 against Russell. 59% in week two since 2003. That's 154 since 2018 against the spread in this exact spot. Shout out to our guy Evan Abrams on useless trends that I just love useless. That trend.
- [17:04]
A
That is a useless trend.
- [17:05]
B
Love it though.
- [17:06]
A
That is like whether or not a.
- [17:08]
B
Guy that shows that teams that have good offensive lines that played well in Week one technically carries over to Week two, that the offensive line stays, plays well and doesn't give up sacks.
- [17:17]
A
So that is the definition of correlation, not causation. I love the trend. Do not accept that trend.
- [17:24]
B
We're literally on all three of those teams that cracked open. As soon as I saw it, I was like, oh, I love that trend.
- [17:29]
A
Detroit -6 against the Bears look, this has been motoring, right? It was at four and a half on Sunday, settled in at five and a half for a few days. It finally moved to six in the past, say, 12 hours. Tricky, tricky, tricky. Like all bias aside because I'm not as much of a Bears fan as I am, which is as big as it can be. I'm not a Caleb fatalist. Like, there were moments he looked good on Monday. There were moments the Bears defense looked great. There were moments that Ben Johnson looked like he could be an NFL coach and there were moments where everything looked like it was the Bears playing like the Bears. But like, can it get better in time to be competitive against a much more seasoned staff and head coach and Dan Campbell, an overall more talented roster that knows it, got embarrassed and knows what needs to be done. This move feels more like opinion and move on the number to me than anything anyone can see in any of the matchups because that Lions defensive offensive line was truly trash. So they got a lot to fix in a very short period of time. Feels like it's just belief in the Lions ability to fix things faster.
- [19:01]
B
Yeah, once again it's Sunday night Show Talked about lines -4 and a half for this exact reason that this was what was probably going to happen if the Bears fell on their face. Even though the lines look terrible. The public will trust them much more than they're going to trust this Bears team. And it's rookie head coach who's now on the road facing his former employee. This has got to be. I mean I know he's trying to play it cool. This has got to be this everything game. And yeah, I, I'm, I get Jerry you're coming from. I'm staying away from it. I got my little four.
- [19:31]
A
Oh yeah.
- [19:32]
B
And I just, I don't want to either be on either side. I mean there's six and a halfs out there now on this Bears team. So yeah, it's tempting. They're tempting because honestly if you go back and watch last year this Bears team shockingly played pretty tough against this Lions team that had all the pieces. So pretty interesting matchup. And I, I do get why the professionals have come in and the public has joined them that this is now you know all the teasers are throwing this lines team and Right. No way lines go Owen 2. Especially against the Bears on a short week on the road and Caleb's just missing open throws. People are just so down on them. So I, I, people can tell I want to be on the Bears. They'll get me there. Once again, another number six and a half seven. Come Sunday I'll throw a little on and try to hit the middle as well. But yeah, that's, that's just crazy the movement of this line that it's moved so much. And at what point does the hate go too far in this Bears team? But I get it. Rookie, rookie coach on the road in a revenge spot for him. I just is attacking me in the right place. Chad. That's what we just don't know. It's is going to be able to separate the emotions from what's in front of him and it's such a huge spot for him and he knows start. Oh and two. It's. It's going to be tough in Chicago for this Bears team.
- [20:47]
A
All right, look. We were decidedly square in our love for the Cowboys and are hoping that the number continues to drop. Buffalo at New York Jets. New York jets are six and a half at Hard Rock. Every time this game touches seven, it gets back down to six. On Tuesday I leaned bills a little bit and you talked me out of it. Another 48 hours of research. I'm coming around to your side, Simon. This is a rock in a hard place. Hard Rock bet of the week New York Jets. Are we sharp or are we square?
- [21:33]
B
We both feel like this is sharp, but our fear is it's slowly becoming a little square. So right now, I'll say it's sharp, but it's. I. I'm shocked. The love of this jets team. Like Chad just said, I thought we would be getting a seven, seven and a half, but I'm happy to take the six and a half, but I just can't believe the public's joining us. To me, this is what they love, right? Josh Allen, huge win Sunday night. Everyone's going to be loving this guy. MVP talk, right? He's the best in football. Jets blew a game. I just thought everyone would be all over this Bills team. So, yeah, the professional money, like Chad's saying it, is coming in heavy on this jets team every time it touches seven. So we both love it. I'm going to take the six and a half. And it really is just about, you know, the injuries to this Bills team and their secondary and this jets defense. I. I get people having major questions about them. And now they're going from getting dominated by Aaron Rodgers to now they're playing, you know, one of the best quarterbacks in football and Josh Allen. I get the hesitation, but it's really about the number, right? It's. It feels like we're always gonna have the option to get this back door here. So, yeah, this is a game we both love. And, you know, the. The seven we were hoping for, I just don't think we're ever gonna get there. I think six and a half, most people listen to show that's the best number we're gonna be able to get. I'm fine taking it.
- [22:51]
A
That's interesting because I feel like I. I was gonna say please, please, please be patient and be aware because it has popped to seven enough that it could get back there. And this, to me, feels like you gotta be on the lookout when the public comes in for the Bills because most people are not tracking this and thinking about it all throughout the week. They saw the Bills win on Sunday night in dramatic fashion. They saw the jets lose like the jets normally lose. They're not digging in the way we dig in. And they're going to bet on Sunday morning at all the big places you can bet. And that's when the move could happen to seven. I'd almost rather risk waiting for the seven and getting that number then and then have to bet a six. If I have to bet a six on Sunday versus landing on the six and a half, I mean, I guess I could take the six and A half and bet it again at seven. But I'd rather be patient and just try to get a seven.
- [23:54]
B
I just don't get there because like I, I talked to two different bookmakers just, and they basically just said, yeah, it's, you know, all the teasers, parlays, all, all the public, yes, they're on the Bills, but it is heavy, heavy professional jets money. And the money's not even close how much. So they're gonna, they might end up needing the Bills. That's the fear for me here, Chad, is like this might be a spot where they might need the Bills because it's so much more professional money coming on the jet. So I, I, that's why I'm just hesitant that I get back to seven. But like you said, certain books, more public books, they could. Because they're going to need, they'll need jets money. Right. They're not taking professional money.
- [24:31]
A
Yeah.
- [24:32]
B
All they're getting is Bill's public money, especially at six and a half. So, yeah, that's, that's a fair argument. You can be patient and hope it gets back to the seven at certain books.
- [24:40]
A
The, the game itself, it just feels like an advantage schematically for the jets regarding their run game against a Bills defense that their defensive backfield just was not very good. They were not great.
- [24:57]
B
Even their front, those gaping holes. I don't know if you saw clips, people playing these clips online. It's these massive holes for Derek Henry. As great as Derek Henry is, it would just be him and the safety one on one, which Derek Henry we saw. Yeah, win every time. You gotta, you try to take an angle on a guy who weighs, you know, 280 and muscle 6, 5, 6, 4, he'll lose every time. It's just, yeah, Derek Henry's a freak.
- [25:18]
A
I also think there's an emotional element here. The Bills coming off that win against one of the two other teams that have been their rival. And the jets feeling themselves right. Like, they came into that Steelers game super confident. They wanted to prove who they were and then they lost. And I feel like this is another chance to show the world that the jets are different. So the emotional swings, this means so much more to the jets than it does to the Bills. And they get it at home and like, it's just, it feels like a really good spot for us.
- [25:53]
B
Agree.
- [25:54]
A
Seattle plus three at Pittsburgh. I feel like you're giving me credit for this. This felt to me like a sharp play all week. And the Juice on this game had been at -115. Since we did our Tuesday show, it's come down back to minus 110. But that initial juice move told me that the wise guys were coming in on the Seahawks. Clearly, I'm very sharp here. Right.
- [26:29]
B
Yeah. I love the Seahawks, too. Are. I feel like we're on the same page of what we like about them in this matchup. And, you know, the fact that their defense could be so much better than what we saw from that jets team and the way that this defense can, you know, give Aaron Rodgers problem. We saw Aaron Rodgers. I think he got sacked three or four times in that game.
- [26:50]
A
Four times.
- [26:51]
B
Yeah. So, you know, there's. There's a lot of things to like about the Seahawks defense. And then we talked offensively. They should have a much better time running against this Pittsburgh team that just like the Bills, has tons of injuries to their secondary. And, you know, the fear is Sam Darnold's crazy to say. Can he really attack them and affect them the same way Justin Fields did? Of course not. Right? The Justin Fields threat of the run, it's just light years different than Sam Darnold. But, you know, the way this defense is on Pittsburgh, we obviously think they'll be better, but how much better is the question. And you know, I know Chad again, hates these trends. This is just one I saw that would just make sense because it's. It feels like a Tomlin trend. Like, when I read it, I go, okay, no other team would have this type of trend, but Tomlin would. They basically allowed 32 points against the jets, right? This Pittsburgh's defense, he's 28, 11 and 1 against the Spritz. 72% the Steelers and this exact spot the week after their defense gives up 32 points even more. So scary. He's 10, one. Tomlin's 10 and one. His exact spot the last 11. So it's a thing where I guess his defense, he just gives them hell week. Like, even though they won 32 points, I'm assuming that's a Tomlin stat where it's like it doesn't matter if they win or whatever. If they give 32, it's as if they lost, especially if the defense and he gets them right. But I'm still very confident in the Seahawks team and how they match up and about the number. But that one jumped out to me. I was like, oh, my God, that is such a Tomlin stat. This anytime his defense gets lit up, they get right the next week. I mean, again, 72% in this exact spots. Usually a Trend that scares me and Chad off. But I think we're too deep. We both just love the Seahawks in the number. So two and a half, three. I love them both.
- [28:40]
A
I think the Steelers are just being overvalued here. I think that the market looks at the Steelers and knows that the public is going to come in on them because they ultimately won in a high scoring game and they saw Aaron Rodgers.
- [28:54]
B
Aaron Rodgers. To me, that's the difference. Aaron Rodgers, that was incredible.
- [28:57]
A
And. But like, I don't think they're unpacking. Aaron Rodgers wasn't perfect in that game. No throws, no Attempts more than 20 yards. Got sacked, got sacked.
- [29:06]
B
All stuff. And it just killed the Jets. It was crazy.
- [29:08]
A
Yeah. And so to me, the, the Steelers kind of got lucky in that game. The jets were a little bit unlucky. And this is a spot where maybe the Seahawks, who were a little bit unlucky in their game against the Niners, can take advantage and, and easily equalize some of that karma, so to speak. And the value is in the Seahawks at plus three. So right now, like you and I are kind of aligned on three games. Dallas jets and Seattle. Guess what we got coming up?
- [29:43]
B
Hopefully it's. Is it Miami? That's what I'm waiting for.
- [29:46]
A
I didn't even put Miami on the list.
- [29:48]
B
Oh, we got it. I got some great stats about that game.
- [29:50]
A
We'll talk about it. I've generally been looking for ways to buy out of that bet the whole thing.
- [29:56]
B
That's fine. I'll tell you why it's a good idea to buy out of it.
- [30:00]
A
LA Tennessee the Rams at the Tennessee Titans last week. This was our brass balls. You nailed it. Worked out perfectly. Guess what, Simon. Tennessee Titans plus five and a half. For the second week in a row, this team is our brass balls bet of the week. Tell everyone why this is a very sharp bet, Simon.
- [30:28]
B
There's a bunch of reasons. It's. It's honestly, I've heard from pros Chad on the Rams, shockingly and I thought this would just be total pros versus Joe's. Right. Every pro would be on the Titans. Everyone in their grandma. Like I feel like everyone I talked to with a sportsbook the other day was just basically oh yeah, got. Got the Rams in my teaser. Got them the Bills. Like that was the stack right these because it's a perfect number to bet it down. But yeah, this I think we're on the same page where it's like okay, if we do a favorite money line moneyliner on Robin, I'D put the Rams there, right? McVeigh does win in this spot, but what's so sure about it, to me, like, is just the number. It's a sharp number, the five and a half. We were hoping Hard Rock would get the six. They've obviously taken some smart money because there are some sixes out there. But, you know, five and a half, to me, it's going to stay down. I just don't see it going back up. And I see it coming down lower and it's this with that. What's happened. The Giants line I thought was going to happen with this Tennessee line. I thought people would go watch the Cam Ward tape against that Denver defense that is really good, and see it was his teammates and the coaching that let him down. Like, he made big plays in either penalties, drops, or back coaching ruined it. And it's like, yeah, he's got weird arm angles. He throws it a little too fast in certain spots. I agree with some of that criticism, but overall, if you just look at his stats, he looked like he was horrible. And Tennessee was super lucky to cover that number when it's like they were crazy unlucky. And the fear for me here is the coaching because I've gone back and watched the game. It's sick. I just like to punish myself. I watched it twice now, that Denver Tennessee game, and I just can't get over Callahan and the coaching mishaps and some of the stuff he does. And, you know, just last year, I think back to him with Will Levison, he'd roll his eyes and be like, this kid's so stupid. The stuff this kid does, how stupid is he? It's like, dude, you're a idiot, too. Like, some of the stuff he does just. Man, he's like, he failed to me, failed Ward in that game. And we got very lucky in our survivor pool that we got out of there with a win. And this number probably should be four, three and a half. We're getting a bump because of how bad Cam Ward and this team look to the general public. But, you know, the pros, they've kept it under six. We'll take the five, five and a half. And we talk all the time. This, this Rams team, they're actually kind of great in this spot, right? Traveling from west to east, they're actually not that terrible. But we've seen. Right. Stanford is different when he's playing outdoors in these type of games. And yeah, I'm. I'm fired up to see what the Tennessee crowd is like because Right now the trends are not good about these favorites on the road. I think last week favorites on the road were five and one straight up. So home field just isn't what it used to be. But Tennessee here with the rookie quarterback. I'm hoping the fans can bring it and give Stafford that offense some problems on the offense because they have to right this, this, this is Stafford. If it's not loud and they're not messing with this snap count, he's going to have his way of this Tennessee defense. This is not Bo Nix. This is Stafford with Puka and Adams and that's just. We saw last game. That's a, a great offense. They just, you know, Houston's a really good defense. So. Yeah. Love this number. Chad, I think you know what you talked about it. I'm glad we're in sync in another game. That's, you know, I could have seen you be on the Rams. I could see why people want to take the Rams a spot. But I think Tennessee at this number, it's crazy. 2 and 15 against the spread last year. We think they're going to start 2 and oh against the spread this season.
- [34:02]
A
Well, look, the Rams also have some injuries in the interior of their offensive line. And the one thing we saw the Titans doing well last week, Jeffrey Simmons was amazing and he was just pressures. He was incredible crushing the pocket. And so if he's able to do that against the Rams, against Matthew Stafford, who's becoming more and more immobile and who was just not that great against the Texans defense, that was kind of in his grill the whole game from different angles, that bodes well. It's funny how NFL sort of analysis circles this week. There becomes a theme that is pretty predominant. If you pay a lot of attention to this beyond like the big games, right beyond the Eagles, Chiefs and beyond any sort of brand name stuff. The themes that evolved this week, which you nailed on, I think Sunday or Tuesday. Cam Ward was much, much better than people expected. His pocket presence was great. He was adjusting his protections like he just did a much better job. He was failed by his coaches. That, that is the big deal. That's the risk here that we're playing. But look, when you're playing a bad team as an underdog, you're taking a risk. It's betting, it's not sure thinging. So I'm with you. I'm with you. It's your breast balls better than Denver at Indianapolis. You mentioned it off the top wise guy hotline. This line has moved from three to plus one. And a half. To me, it's out at this number. It's fascinating to watch the line movement on this though, Simon, like it really indicates to me a little bit of a battle opinions that have been happening. At 12:30 on Tuesday it was two and a half. Thirty minutes later it moved to two. An hour later it moved back to two and a half. The next day, Wednesday, moved back down to two at 4:30. Two minutes later it went back to two and a half. Literally 4:32. An hour later it went down to two. Three minutes after that it went to two and a half. And then 20 minutes later it went to two again. Finally, overnight, it's like somebody just said screw this. And it's now down to one and a half across the board. I don't have a lean. I don't think it's going to be one of the games that we want to play most strongly as one of our five favorites. You liked it at two. You've been on this at three. Obviously the sharp side has been the Colts as it stands.
- [36:41]
B
Do you have an opinion, Chad, you non believer. You don't believe in Indiana Jones? Yeah, it's the sharp side Colts, right. It's. We're betting on a number on a team that we see what their identity is going to be. And that's what I love about where Bo Nix, we talked about it. You saw the adjustment made by Tennessee and I believe we're going to see it by Indianapolis that he does have weaknesses. You can attack and frustrate him and there's things you can exploit. But I get your hesitation here, right? It's.
- [37:12]
A
It's just a number. We missed the best of the number here.
- [37:15]
B
That's. That's fair. Like we. If it was two and a half, obviously we'd be much more confident. And the three, like I said on Sunday night, you know, that was three at Hard Rock, there was three and a halfs all over. And that's my whole point was like this is going to have to come down. There's no way the professionals come in on the Broncos at minus 3. Chad just told you they've been hitting this Bronco side at the minus one and a half. They've been hitting at the two. Now they've seen that. You know, that's. It's the public side, this Bronco side. So the real professional money, the heavy money has put this now at one and a half. And I agree with you. It's. We don't have to force it in there. I do like this. I Do like this cold side and like, I embed into it. But like Chad said, I'm bet I'm better at a better number than this. So I'm not going to stamp my feet here and be like, you have to take this one and a half. But it's like, man, I just have major questions about that Broncos team, and I think they got very lucky last week that they did face our rookie quarterback on that defensive side because he had windows. I don't know how great that run defense is going to be either. Like, you know, Pollard, that fumble, just a total killer of a drive for that Tennessee team. I just can't see Taylor putting them that bad of a spot. Right. I feel like that last fumble I really remember of his was the one that cost me and Chad an insane amount of money. Him dropping it right before he scrolled in for a touchdown against, I believe, the same exact Broncos team.
- [38:38]
A
So.
- [38:38]
B
So I think last time they played, they were about to go up, like, what was it, Chad, 21 or 20 to 3? He drops that ball. I don't think they score another points, this Colts team. So that's. To me, it's something that has to be on their mind as well. And yeah, I. If. If it's two and a half in your contest, I'm gonna be tempted. I'll see if it is an artist to make. Chad played on Sunday. You'll have to check it out. Tune in and see. But as we sit here right now, one and a half. If you want to bet it. I don't hate the number. I'm. I'm still going to take it, most likely. I just. I'm going to try to be patient on this one as well and hope we get back to that key number of two. Just because there are some pros on that Denver side that could, at your book, bump this back up to two.
- [39:16]
A
We got to talk about the Chiefs and the Eagles because you mentioned it off the top. There is a very clear divide here. And this line has moved a full three points since we first discussed it on Sunday night. You leaned Eagles when they were one and a half point dogs. Everyone is piling on this ship. How far is too far to now think that the Chiefs are. Are plus one and a half point dogs and we still want to bet the Eagles. Simon, this is the show Sharper Square. It feels to me like the sharp side is the Chiefs and. And yet you want to be Quentin Tarantino square on the Eagles.
- [40:08]
B
I know. I picked my spots. I picked my spots. I'm thinking of going square here, Chad. I'm pretty square because I break it.
- [40:15]
A
Down for me because like, to me this is about the number and about the flip. And I know the Eagles right now probably have more talent on their roster, but can we not like, do we have such sort of recency bias that we're forgetting it's Patrick Mahomes and it's still Chris Jones and it's still Andy Reid and it's still Steve Spagnolo and it's still the Chiefs at home. And like, it's not like this team isn't still a Super bowl contender.
- [40:47]
B
No, but we've seen that we got burned by that exact thinking in the Super Bowl. And it's my whole perspective of this is. This number is what Chad just mentioned. It's the public perception of the Chiefs team of years gone and you're the guy that just bangs the table about every year. Teams are different. Aren't you? Isn't that, Aren't you that guy?
- [41:09]
A
So don't try to throw my words back in my head.
- [41:11]
B
I have to. You say these things. I'm like, store that away for later because he will trip up.
- [41:15]
A
Don't point out my failings to me.
- [41:19]
B
Yeah, I just, I can't get over this number. And my only thought process of it is, well, you know, Eagles extended rest, maybe come out slow. We still have questions about their offense and you know, some of their defensive pieces they missed. But it's like the biggest thing we're talking over is Jalen Carter. That's why I wasn't banging the table, because I was in my mind thinking this is a suspended Jalen Carter line. That's why the Eagles to me opened at +1/2 as a dog. Right. That felt to me like a Jalen Carter line.
- [41:49]
A
Yeah.
- [41:50]
B
Because I, in my, in my mind, I couldn't think what. They just lost their number one receiver and they're already down their number one receiver. So now they're down, they're number one. Number two, he's throwing to Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith, Schuster here and a 35, 36 year old Travis Kelsey. It's like that's what was so amazing, that Chargers game where it's like Mahomes to me is just, you're crazy if you don't think this guy's one of the best quarterbacks or the best quarterback in football. Like the plays he makes with a talent around him, he's just, he's so incredible. And that would to me would be the magic of My homes. While you're taking him in this spot, you're betting on past success on these numbers and it's pretty easy to look it up. He's only been a dog one other time, this exact spot. So regular season at home as an underdog two and a half point dog to the Buffalo bills, he lost 24 to 20. So in my mind, a lot of stuff we're talking about it's been him on the road and you know, discredited. That's why he was a dog. And he shows up on the road of those exact spots to get him as a dog at home. This other team must be really, really good like to the books to make that number. It is. So that's when we're if the books did make it three, three and a half, which is closer to what I think it should be. I think they would be showing their hand where it's like if you can't tell me the Eagles from that super bowl haven't either flatlined or improved or this Chiefs team as is feels like a step down. Especially a team that we've all talked about it. They went to three straight Super Bowls. This team mainly the core. That's a lot of miles on these guys. And they've always treated these early seasons not as a preseason. Right. They do win and cover early in the season. They do win games, but we've seen they don't really turn it on till December and January. That's just how the Chiefs have been these last couple years. So yeah, I get it. They're going to be revenge spot, you know, super bowl, all that stuff. I just think it's like the big guy putting his hand, the little kid's forehead. They just, they can't hit this Eagles team. Right. They just this how he built this team to beat the Chiefs like that was his one goal of mind. He didn't beat it. He didn't build this team for anyone in nfc. The Eagles have never looked at as if anyone in the NFC is a problem. So I just look at his matchup. You're getting a fired up Carter in this spot. Defensively, Eagles got an insane amount of pressure on deck. Right. They were finger lengths away from getting strip sacks and getting the ball out of his hands. Without Carter, this is a arguably a worse offensive line than what the Dallas Cowboys had this week. Like we've seen even that Chargers defense had major pressure on Mahomes. So yeah, I just. It's all about the number here for me. I know it's the public Side, but I think it's the book. Give me too much respect. Professional betters give me too much respect for my homes. And I'm definitely looking forward to eating these words come Sunday because I know just about every pro I've talked to, they are lining up to take this cheap side. I just think they're undervaluing this Eagles team and exactly what the spot is where it's like. It's just not. They don't have the pieces if it's. If it's worthy and rice with Mahomes here and it's minus one. Honestly on the Chiefs, I would be very tempted to take that. It's like, okay, I can see them keeping up and putting pressure on the Eagles. Number two corner who's attacking Eagles biggest weakness. The number two corner on this chief's team. I mean, you have a name? Chad. I. I can't. There's nothing that scares me on the chief side. So it's just. It's. It's very public, it's very chalky. I'm gonna maybe force this one in on us and I'll own it because I know Chad's hesitant about it, but I just love the way this lines up for this Eagles team.
- [45:24]
A
I was just gonna say I can't deny you your passion. You. You feel so strongly about it. We're of course going to put this in. You're of course going to own it. It's of course going to be one of our five favorite picks and we're gonna ride our day. Ride or die with this Eagles team. In fact, I'm making a change right now. I'm making an executive change. This is our rock and a hard place. Hard Rock better the week because we will be so against what the conventional wisdom is in terms of betting on the Chiefs as dogs. We will be so against the wise guys on this game. I am transitioning. This is going to be our rock and a hard place. Hard Rock bet of the week. We're taking the Eagles minus one and a half. It's going to be one of our favorite five. Boom. Lock it. Done.
- [46:11]
B
Hard Rock loves it. Just more promo.
- [46:13]
A
Yeah, exactly. All right. You know, by the way, speaking of Hard Rock, let's hear a message from our friends over there. We are crazy excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. I don't know if you know this. I've got a very long history of staying at Hard Rock hotels and casinos, including one football season practically living there. Literally. They've always been to me, the best combination of vibe and fun. Now you can use the top rated Hard Rock BET Sportsbook to place your bets all NFL season and beyond. Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sports book in the state of Florida and it's also available in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado, with more states launching all the time. You can also play on Hard Rock Bets online casino if you were in New Jersey, Simon, I know you want to check that out. From here on out, you'll start to see us use Hard Rock fat lines when we're talking about the games. And everyone knows Simon and I, we have loved getting out and doing live shows. Now we can actually do them from Hard Rock property. Simon, do we see a sharp or square live show from AC just down the road from with you in our future as we gear up for NFL season. Sign up for Hard Rock bet. Make a $5 bet you'll get $150 in bonus bets if you win. Head over to Hard Rock Bet, sign up and make your first deposit today. These are payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In in Florida, offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1888- admit-it in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, Simon, on Tuesday, your Simon says, don't forget my Chad loves love with Seattle plus three. Your assignment says at the time was Minnesota minus four and a half. It has come down and you intimated that you thought it was going to be Drake London not playing and you thought the line was going to go up. It actually did move up to five and a half in some spots. You know, after there was some, some feeling that Drake London was going to play. But it's been a steady drift downward down to three and a half Wednesday afternoon. Now it's at three after the news came out that not just Drake London but Darnell Mooney practiced. They're both expected to play when they go to play at Minnesota. A lot of pros liking Atlanta also, I think because they look at that Tampa Bay game and think, oh, when I break this down, Atlanta should have won that game. Like a touchdown pass was missed because Darnell Mooney wasn't on the field. His replacement Couldn't make the play. So I think that there's also a huge difference in emotional swings. I don't like Atlanta here now because I think all the value is gone. But I'm not leaning towards Minnesota on this one. It doesn't feel like a final five to me.
- [50:07]
B
It's too bad. I was hoping. I was hoping you were going to love Atlanta, but this is just. I'm dug in. I'll admit it right away. I'm dug in that I do love this Vikings side. But it's brutal where it's like I was between that game and the Saints. It feels like for my early. Simon says it was all based on injury. It's like I. I thought I was more leaning toward Purdy was just going to force it and play. And where Drake London was going to miss because the information I got though his shoulder, he basically apparently could have put his arm above his head, which when I heard that, huge deal, first clip I see yesterday is him catching the ball, reaching both his arms way above his head, snagging the ball out of there and it's just like, oh my God, I got. I got. God. So that's the tough part of this business. It's. It's a lot of hearsay, obviously. Wish I just done the Saints right. That four and a half now looking like a genius bet because it's down to three in that Saints game or this matchup. It's gone against me and most pros I've talked to, they. They like this Atlanta team. I think they view what Chad said. Penix, when you really dive into the numbers, he's actually pretty good. He played pretty well even under pressure in that game. Like even moved off the spot. Played pretty well. My pushback. That Tampa D isn't that good. They're banged up as well. Like is. You know, Vita ve. I know he played in the game. He did some things while right against the run stuff. They weren't getting tons of pressure up the middle, which we've seen in college. That was what Pennock weakness was, right? Was getting the push up the middle. Like I said, this is a Flores defense. Like if you go through Pennix's career, his early career, he has put up numbers and played really well. I will give them credit for that. But you look at the teams he's faced, this is going to be the toughest defensive test for him by far. And you know, as much stuff I want to give crap to Caleb Williams about, he had no run game, the Bears had no run game. That's what Flores. He had one game plan that was to take away the Bears run game and make Caleb beat them. Caleb beat them with his legs. That was something he was not prepared for. Right. Like, they, they did take away his passes downfield and different things like that. But the game changer of that game was by far Caleb's legs. Can Penix do that against his Vikings defense? I. I don't know. Like, I know he had that rushing touchdown against Tampa, but I just think Caleb's a little bit more athletic. And, you know, this is at a point now where I love it. Like, it's, it's good value to me, especially at minus three, this Vikings team. And I'm gonna learn pretty quick If I'm overvaluing JJ McCarthy and giving him too much, too much credit in my model, giving him too many points. But, you know, I like this one. And I was hoping you were gonna like Atlanta because I'm almost positive they're going to be, you know, five and a half, four and a half in our contest. And I was like, all right, perfect. Chad will take this game. We lose, and I'm just gonna hit him over the head with a coconut and be like, I told you I had this number at 6. I moved it down, though, because now that Drake London is healthy, I do have it at four and a half. So still, I have a good value if you want to bet the Vikings right now. And I like the spot. Once again, pros, I think the public, I'm almost positive, all going to line up on this Atlanta side and take this road dog. And I just being, being a, being a home favorite on Sunday night. And you're with the book. To me, it's been a good spot to be in long term for me. So that's, that's really the basis of it. Like, there's trends, too, that point to people like in Atlanta. And I love trends. But here I just, I can't get over this number. I just can't believe the value on this number, this Vikings team, that the question was the quarterback, if the quarterback can put sustainable drives together. I know it's only one quarter, but I think they found something. He found some confidence there that's going to carry them through the season. And we talk all the time. I mean, Chad, we talked before the season. I didn't see it with jj. I didn't have other professional betters telling me, hey, this kid, when I watched their tape, when I watched their practice film, everything about him, it's not a dumb bet. 80 to 1 for him to be MVP. And I was just like, oh my, I can't see it. Like, I just can't see it because again, he didn't play all last year and it's a kid that just did not throw the ball in college. Like there had to been a reason Horrible was not letting him throw it. And at the end of the day we might learn. It's just, you know, that's what Michigan's offense was. They were just a run first team, protect the ball. That was his job. And that's how they won. And we saw in that first game against the bearshad, I mean, you saw it, he can sling it like that kid can throw the ball and fit into some windows. So yeah, I, I, I can't get over the fact that this Atlanta team feels incredibly overrated, overvalued right now. And somehow after that win, this Vikings team is somehow becoming undervalued. And it's just playing the number minus three. I got to take it at this value.
- [54:42]
A
Yeah, I'd probably lean the Vikings at minus three. I don't think it'll be one of our five favorite bets. I'm glad you can't shame me about the Falcons. When it comes to JJ McCarthy, I'm reminded of the fact that the old joke, only one person could keep Michael Jordan under 20 points a game. It was Dean Smith. Do you get it? You're not, you're not laughing. Jim Harbaugh is The Dean Smith. J.J. mcCarthy.
- [55:15]
B
There you go.
- [55:16]
A
Is the the guy being held back? Is it too old? Is the joke too old?
- [55:21]
B
I think it's too old. There might be a guy out there laughs at you. You never know. I just was not that guy.
- [55:28]
A
You never know. It just wasn't you. All right. You do get to shame me about Miami. I, I have not listened. I have not talked about Miami. I have not said we need to put Miami in. I, I have been off Miami. I could not cash out of the bet. I apologize. But if you feel the need to shame me, go ahead and shame me about the Miami Dolphins. But you're not shaming me because I agree with everything you're saying. I'm preemptively not letting you shame me.
- [56:02]
B
Well, I just want to talk if we might have to try to get the Patriots in, are we missing out on opportunities here that I think Miami team and my hesitation is always going to be. I'm not shy about it. I'm a Drake May hater. Like I, I get the hyped around Drake May. But you'd have these people on media talking about how much smarter they are than all of us and how great Drake May is and how we just don't see what they see. And it's tiresome. It's like no one doubted this guy having a big arm and him being able to run the ball. Like he's athletic, but it's like, is he consistent? And the thing is, we just blame the weapons, right? You blame the coaching, you blame the offensive line. There's always gonna be things to blame. And we've just seen the NFL, you know, it takes a little bit, right? That's why with Drake May, I don't want to be too hard on him because I know it takes a little bit, but it's like they still think he's better than Jaden Daniels. What are we doing here? Like, that's such an asinine thing to try to project out heading into the season. And, you know, looking at this one, I really wanted to dive into the trends here because I was just thinking, what can I even find on Miami to like Miami?
- [57:10]
A
And even I can give you exactly. I know exactly what it is.
- [57:14]
B
Yeah, don't back Miami here.
- [57:15]
A
And no, but I do you want the trend. The one thing that sort of flagged.
- [57:20]
B
For me immediately with the one you found you loved.
- [57:22]
A
It's. It's all about teams coming off a blowout. They're off a 20 plus point loss, they're at home. Like, this is when you bet that team that looked incredibly bad. And so that's what made me immediately bet them. I didn't think about, you know, offensive line issues. I didn't think about secondary issues. This, to me, was purely a number trend play. That was it. Like, I regret it. I haven't bought out of it. Maybe I'll get lucky and it'll go my way. And you know, like everything else in the world, when everything is anti, anti, anti, everybody is wrong. But I don't love it enough to try to convince you the way you're trying to convince me on the Eagles or maybe the Vikings that it's going to be one of our five favorite plays. I made the bet. I'm sticking with it because I can't get any value cashing out. But I made the bet because they were blown out. And historically that says immediately bet that team that there's going to be too much value on them. And essentially the line has stayed exactly where it was. It stayed where it was. When I got the best of the number. It opened at One and a half got up to two and a half, is now back down to one and a half. It hasn't moved, so nothing I can do.
- [58:39]
B
I thought you were gonna give me a trend. I don't know what that was, but I'll give you a team a trend.
- [58:43]
A
The trend is you back the team. I can't remember the exact number. The trend is you back the team that is off a blowout loss.
- [58:48]
B
Teams in week one that lose by 21 points or more and their favorite, obviously in week two, they're 512 and 2 against the spread since 2005, and they're owing 3 against the spread since 2022 in this exact spot.
- [59:03]
A
Well, it's not the trend I have.
- [59:05]
B
Yeah. So, like, again, that's a fade. Miami in six spot. So Miami Dolphins and score a single point in that first half against, you know, a Colts defense that we can agree they're not that good. Like, that was really on to it. Like, Tuna just couldn't stop turning the ball over. But it's like, okay, it was one bad game. Maybe the next game they'll be better. So again, no points in that first half. That same team that's listed as a favorite the next week, they're 5 and 10 against this friend in this exact spot. And, you know, it's. It's just bad for Miami. And when you see that their right tackle, who's bad, and their right guard, who's bad, are out for this game and their backups are now in. Oh, my God, it's. You know, Millen Williams. This is why you got him from the Eagles. If you're the Patriots, you. You have a guy that was giving problems to Geno Smith last week. And that Raiders offensive line, how does he not dominate this Miami offensive line? And once again, we've seen Tua. He doesn't have time. And you cover his first read. Like Chad said, he's bad and he struggles. And Tyreek, we've talked. Football is this weird sport where if your whole mental aspect isn't right, you're just not right. And it feels like two is not. I mean, Tyreek has not been right for, you know, two years now. And everyone's seen that stat. He's only. He's only had one game where he's had a catch for over 30 yards, and that was last year against the Jaguars on week one. So Tyreek has just been a disaster. This Miami team's been a disaster. And if. If it wasn't Drake May, I really would be just hammering this line because it's like if you have a comparable quarterback here that doesn't turn the ball over and can move the ball semi down the field, this should be a very easy cover for this Patriots team and Brave because they're just as desperate as Miami. They don't want to be 0 and 2 either.
- [61:00]
A
Yeah.
- [61:01]
B
And you know, Variable, him bringing his whole personality this team, this is that game where his personality for this team should show up. Right. That, that game against the Raiders, they had that. We talked about the Pete Carroll, you know, Geno Smith combo. We wanted to see what it was going to be like. We saw that that looked like a veteran team with a veteran coach and a veteran quarterback. And Variable looked like the veteran coach with the inexperienced quarterback. Are we going to get burned here again? Because this is the Miami spot. That is also another fear where it's like this is usually where to plays well. But I told Chad, I, I even on Tuesday's show if this, if this my Miami team gets down seven or 10 and the booze start raining in from this Miami fans, it just all feels like it goes so sour so quick because this team just feels like they have no confidence in the red coach. I mean the sound bites from them this week have just been atrocious. And that's again, I don't want to be sucked in because that's such an immediate thing to hear the sound bites and be like, easy bet, take the Patriots here. But you know, I'm looking at the splits on a couple different sites and it's pretty even like there's pretty decent amount of people betting Miami in the spot. They're not. If this, if this was me and Chad taking the Patriots and it was 90 of the tickets and 90 of the money were on the Patriots and this number was still Dolphins minus one. Mean you would both be like red flags. Either you take Dolphins or you just stay away. It's not really like that. It's honestly pretty even. There's some pros on the Dolphins side and it really is, I think what Chad said. Right. It's a team that got embarrassed. They are better on paper than this Patriots team. But it's like, man, on paper I get it. But in real life, I don't know if they're that different. I don't really like. And that's what this line reflects. Like it's, it's the right line to me and the better team to me is the dog right now. So I, I'll work on you even on Sunday. I'll see If I get you on the Patriots team. But it's. It's just a line. I've been betting the trends point to it. I like that match. And then also when I heard about the right guard and the right tackle. Yeah, I was right. This. This got up to two. And I got Patriots, too. As soon as that news came out, the right side of their whole line being out, it just dropped right back down to one. So I. I just don't think it's moved enough. And it's gonna be a line. I'll be terrified if it does flip, though, because we hate betting flip lines. But. Yeah, how does this not flip the Patriots, who. Who is betting heavy money? This Miami side, It's. It's. It's such a bad team right now. Just everything negative.
- [63:20]
A
All right, look, we'll have this conversation on Sunday. It's a spirited debate. I. I'm moving aside any kind of sort of feelings I might have because I've already bet it. I just want to make the best five picks we can make Sunday. It will have to be a conversation. Are we going to say that we like it better than Dallas?
- [63:36]
B
You want to do one more game? I got a. I got a stat on Bengals and Joe Burrow.
- [63:40]
A
Okay, great. Because. Because the Bengals are actually a team. I'm waiting for that number to get from three and a half to three. So if it gets to three, I'm betting the Bengals.
- [63:49]
B
Okay, so give it to me. So I gave that.
- [63:53]
A
And this stat better make me feel better.
- [63:55]
B
Yeah, that stupid stacks that I gave earlier about basically 59%, if you don't remember. There's Green Bay. Is the Jaguars as the Cowboys about.
- [64:04]
A
That stupid set about the zero sacks.
- [64:06]
B
And yeah, if you don't have sex in week one. Yeah, that pretty much shows that you have a pretty good offensive line, especially in week two.
- [64:13]
A
Or you're playing a team with a terrible defensive line line.
- [64:16]
B
It's fair. Look. Look what we got here, though. The Bengals defense, which isn't as terrible as I said. But again, this. That might have been a Cleveland thing where Cleveland's running backs are, you know, atrocious, where we don't think that. We think the Jaguars run blocking scheme will be better. This is really, though, a Joe Burrow step. Me and Chad talked about it. Right. Joe Burrow. Week one. We. We. We know the deal. You fade him there. The public overvalues him for some reason. Doesn't matter even that we saw it doesn't matter if he plays in preseason. That offense just isn't in sync. I cannot believe he had seven yards in that second half. Brown's defense is good. We know that they are not that good. Let's be honest here. Like that that was a total anomaly. I get if you if you're like Chad and you're waiting for it to get the three because you expect the bounce back spot against an overvalued Jaguars team that you know this number was five and a half. Like Chad said, it's three and a half three now Joe Burrow Week 2 He's just a guy that struggles and we've seen it early in the career. Early in. Early in the season. You know his first three games burrowing his career as a favorite. First three games of the year 171 against the spread in his career as a favorite and again last. That includes last week where he was a favorite. Didn't cover when he's listening a favorite within the first two games. Chad. The Bengals are oh and six against the spread.
- [65:35]
A
This doesn't make me feel better. I mean I haven't bet it yet.
- [65:38]
B
I'm just saying like it's all there that for some reason these first two weeks Joe doesn't do well. The Bengals doing well. He doesn't do well as a favor the rest of the season. Joe after 3 week 3 and later he's 43221 against the Spreadshad. So that's what I mean. Like you look for these trends because it's like what am I not seeing with this game that you know, to me I'm. I'm with Chad. Like why is this game not a little higher? Like this, this Jags team, how do you not think they're a little overvalued? But now when I really dive into it's like you know, three and a half. That's the right number for this game. So I am on the Jaguar side. I want. People were asking about this game and I did just want to give respect since I just run defense isn't as terrible as they looked last year. But that we'll see again how they do against his run blocking scheme of the zone blocks that you know that's what the Jaguars are gonna be running now. And that's I love zone block because it leads up to the running back. But the running back cuts and chooses the hole. You saw that can be a really big deal for them. And you know they just got rid of Tank Bigsby. They're giving tooting more looks now. You know that could be a really good backfield with him and etn. So, yeah, I just wanted to bring that game up and just give out that Joe Bro stat. People just said we're the biggest Bengals haters. We love betting the Bengals. I told you, we. I just gave you this out. We're gonna be betting the Bengals for the rest of the year. This first three weeks, it's just different. Like, Taylor, the head coach, whatever it is, doesn't have the guys prepared. They struggle, Joe struggle against the spread. The public isn't weary to that. The guy is literally 0 and 6 on this exact spot, I guess a favorite. So it's just, it's something to be wary of. Joe Burrow early season as a favorite against the spread.
- [67:14]
A
All right, we're going to have a healthy debate on Sunday because I feel like there are some leaders in the clubhouse, but there are some, some teams sort of knocking on the clubhouse door trying to get in.
- [67:26]
B
Oh, yeah.
- [67:26]
A
And. And those are games where you got. You and I are much less aligned. So tune in Sunday morning Sharper Square on YouTube. Listen to it on your podcast feeds. Simon's biggest bet. What do we got?
- [67:43]
B
Yeah, I mean, it is tough because, like, obviously last week, I mean, guys, we hear it like, I. It is tough in my spot where, yeah, I bet the Ravens for three months at plus one and a half and I know 90% of people listening to the show got Ravens at minus one. Brutal. Going forward, it shouldn't really be like that. Right? If you catch this show, the show and we post it, hopefully you're getting the same number as me. And this week, honestly, the Colts three plus two and a half. I did hit that pretty heavy the first two days, like early, early on here. That's really where I put a lot of my money. Jets plus seven. Me and Chad talked about it. I love Jets. If you can get the seven, get the seven. I feel so much more confident about the. At the seven. And you know, I talked about this Eagles team. I, I can't stop betting it. I love it. I'm. I'm already dreading Sunday where if I'm wrong about this one, just because not only am I going to be eating this from a lot of professional Bears and maybe even Chad, but it's like, it's hard when I hit these numbers so heavy. And your vision of the game, how it's going to play out, goes totally sideways. And it's like, that's the same thing. We're bet. Like, I only bet against Mahomes here and I'm betting against Josh Allen. Not fun. Both Are terrifying. Right. That. That experience we had on Sunday night, that was horrible. Like having Josh Allen come back. Because we all knew what was happening, right. As soon as. Horrible punting on that 4th and 2, 4th and 3, me and Chad knew that was. That was it. That. That was a losing bet. So, yeah, like that. That Eagles one to me, that's really gonna decide my weekend. And, yeah, that's. Again, we're gonna be talking more about on Sunday. We'll see where that line goes. I'm excited to see. Does it flip? He goes back to a dog, or does this. Does this get up to two, Chad? It's gonna be interesting watching this one by the time we get to Sunday.
- [69:28]
A
Moneyline underdog round robin parlay. I've got Tennessee dead.
- [69:34]
B
I told you it's dead.
- [69:35]
A
Well, we still got to do it. We got to give the people what they want.
- [69:37]
B
I don't want to give it out, though, because I. I'd rather do favorites. Let's win. I. I told you I bet this stuff. I'm losing money here, Chad. Like, legit money.
- [69:45]
A
All right, let's give a favorite and. And a. And an. And an underdog.
- [69:48]
B
All right.
- [69:49]
A
Tennessee Jets, Pats, Falcons, Colts. For the underdog.
- [69:56]
B
No, get out of here with the Falcons. No way I'm getting that in there.
- [69:59]
A
Who do you want to put in?
- [70:02]
B
That's. That's tough. Let's go. Let's go, Vegas.
- [70:05]
A
Okay. All right.
- [70:08]
B
Gino Madone, baby.
- [70:09]
A
Yeah. We didn't talk about that game much, but that's just because the line is.
- [70:12]
B
Yeah, the line moved to three.
- [70:14]
A
I'm not. I'm not as passionate about that one. Do you want to do a favorites parlay at this point?
- [70:20]
B
Yeah. Let's get super chalky with it. Start out with our guys. Dallas Cardinals. We like them. I think they're a team that could easily win.
- [70:29]
A
Yeah.
- [70:29]
B
Against that Panthers team that looks like they have real problems. I already talked about rams. I just. McVeigh wins those games. He might not cover, but he wins those games. A nice little hedge against our own bet, which I always love. Taking those spots.
- [70:43]
A
It's.
- [70:43]
B
It's. I know it's painful, Chad, but don't we have to do the Lions?
- [70:47]
A
I was just gonna say.
- [70:48]
B
Are they Lions going Owen, too?
- [70:50]
A
Lions, to me, are. Are automatically in there.
- [70:54]
B
And the last one again, I. I want to hear your view on it. Or I guess we have to go Bills. Never mind. We'll go Bills.
- [71:01]
A
Okay.
- [71:02]
B
I was gonna get real weird with it and just throw. Throw in the 49ers, but let's just avoid the 49ers game. Let's.
- [71:08]
A
I'd much rather go the Bills Survivor. I, I put in Arizona, Ravens and Lions as the three teams I would use for Survivor.
- [71:26]
B
Okay? And like, the key is we, we do need to start looking ahead now. So, like week one, I just wanted to survive. I. I've been busted out of so many of these contests in week one because there's always that game, and that did not happen. So it's not a guarantee it's going to happen. The NFL has changed in that sense, but like that, I can't help but look at all these teams and think, who, which. Which is the one? Who's the one? So I think we're on the same boat, right? The, the top three this week is Ravens, it's Dallas, that's Cardinals. So quick look at the Cardinal schedule, right? They get the Panthers here. And I'm trying to find when's the next time we could even potentially play this team. Chad. It's kind of tough. Like there isn't. There isn't much other games like we get. They get Tennessee at home in week five. That could be our chance to take the Cardinals. So let's, let's put them aside then, right? Because that's already. We already have a look ahead now. Tennessee at home for the Cardinals, that's potentially the next time we could take them this exact spot. So let's move them out. Let's go to Dallas. Now, I don't know if you're. The Dallas schedule up, they have the Giants, who could be the worst team at football at home after starting 0 and 1. I already told you, Dak Prescott has won 13 straight games against this Giants team. Now, Chad says, who cares? That's revisionist history. If I go back though, those Giants teams to me were better than this one currently formed. And especially, say what you want about Daniel Jones, you know, he dominated the commanders for all these years. Like, there's weird things with your divisional opponents. Tom Brady, we've all seen the records against these divisional teams that, you know, Jared Goff, there's certain teams he owns in this division. Like every team has certain teams. There's no one else I could find for the Dallas, Chad. Like, I'm looking at their schedule. They're at the Panthers. That's a spot. I guess we could take them. But other than that, I, I just could not find another easy game. I mean, they're at the Giants the last week of the season. There's just no other spots to me with Dallas and like I told people, we've been burned by them. I know, but it's. We either take Dallas here, we have to take them next week when they go to Chicago and Chicago, their own two. That's going to be a super desperate team potentially. So that's just why I jumped out to me about taking them and the last ones. Again, we need to run through it. Ravens. I think we're on the same page of why we like the Ravens here. It's like them going 0 and 2. I thought we talked about the Raiders exact spot last year. They broke up tons of. They busted a bunch. I think we got busted out on it. On the Ravens. Look in their schedule. I mean, I'm, I'm bringing up right now, I can't find another easy spot. Really. Like they're at Cleveland late. You know, they get the Bears at home after their bye week. That could be a Raven spot. So, like we could. We could save them for week eight, this Ravens team. But that's. That's the toughest part with trying to do these survivor pools. It's like we just want to survive to the next week, but we also need to plan ahead a little bit. So I get people, so many people reach out with the Cowboys. I get it. No one wants to see that line drop the four and a half. That is scary. But I just, I can't see Dak losing that game. And it's just, when am I going to play the Cowboys again? That's. They could be a bad team and that could get banged up and then we're just. We wasted not taking them in week two. So people can tell I'm fighting it. But I just, I, I think we got to go. Cowboys chat. I don't know where you're at with this one, but I, I think Eileen.
- [74:42]
A
Ravens, I don't think there's going to be another spot to play him. As I was doing the research this morning, it felt like to me it came down to Ravens and Cardinals, to be honest. So if you want, if you feel that strongly about Dallas, I just don't know where we're getting either of these teams. Dallas, I don't know that they would be a team that. Who do I want more at the end of the year? Right. And I don't want anything to do with the Cardinals at any time, but this is sort of the best time to play them.
- [75:15]
B
We have to pick 18 teams.
- [75:16]
A
Right.
- [75:16]
B
So that's why teams to save some good teams.
- [75:22]
A
I would do Cardinals or Ravens.
- [75:24]
B
Cardinals or Ravens. Okay. Maybe I'll put a poll out, see what the fans want to do and try to fade them.
- [75:29]
A
Yeah, exactly. We can, we can update on Sunday.
- [75:33]
B
Okay.
- [75:33]
A
Where we're going to land because we're divided on this. Listen, Sharp versus Square, you won last week handily, so you get to go first this week.
- [75:45]
B
God, I'll just do it because I love this show. I'll go Patriots plus.
- [75:51]
A
Wow.
- [75:52]
B
I know. I just, I want to go Eagles, but I, I just, I can't put all my chips on one side. So I'll, I'll go crazy here and take Bravel and just. Oh, my God, that Miami team.
- [76:04]
A
All right, I'm taking the Jets.
- [76:07]
B
Okay.
- [76:08]
A
This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning, 11am or earlier. You're going to eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic, make human decisions, regret the rest of the day. You'll also get that on your podcast platforms. We will be back live Sunday night, 7:30pm Eastern. To recap all that misery, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also download it from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, subscribe. But most importantly, rate review because feedback is a gift and it helps make the show easier to find for everyone else. Don't forget, we are collecting the comments. Pretty soon we're going to start reading some of them, giving away some sweet, sweet swag. Until next time, love you.