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- [00:00]
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This is an iHeart podcast.
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Guaranteed Human. Welcome to Sharp or Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the swears sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
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A
Chad. How we doing, my brother?
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B
You got your special Eagles shirt on. I love when the ESPN headline stack is all about what Howie Roseman is saying and just that he keeps repeating the same sentence over and over, which is, A.J. brown is a member of the Philadelphia Eagles, which as an Eagles fan, you got to be thinking, as we head out of sort of the beginning stages of NFL off season and get deep into NFL draft stages, which is what we're going to be talking about today. I Love that the NFL so dominates that Howie Roseman's repeated comments about A.J. brown status is one of the top headlines on ESPN.com this past week.
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A
Yeah, it's the click business, Chad. You're in the click business. We're not, we're not total sellouts. Thank God though. Like, you've never told me to say something to go viral or anything like that, honestly, which is a blessing. But that's what a lot of media is, right? There's a lot of people in sports media where again, I'll never put a name out there because it's, it's never a good look to just talk down on people. There are some people that I truly think are horrible for the sports media. Spreading lies and it just gets people going and it's just, it's such useless conversation. Now, the A.J. brown talk, it started last year, right? And I kept saying to you, the money doesn't make sense. The Eagles, if they were trading before last season, it was going to be like 50 million in dead cap. Well, he played the season. You heard he was gonna be traded at the deadline, all season. It didn't happen. They kept it. Now, there was drama, obviously, right? There is smoke where there's fire, but once again, people are acting like he's gonna be traded again. It's. It's a dead cat move.
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C
So.
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A
Well, how we do it, I think it's after like June 1st, instead of being 30 million, a dead cap, it's like under 20 million. Yeah. Like, to me, Miles Garrett, Max Crosby, those type of moves make sense if the Patriots want to give up a first round pick for AJ who's, you know, 29 years old, still has a Couple good years ahead of him. Yeah, that makes sense. But I, I loved how he's comments because it's. It's basically what it always is going to be, right? It's like I'm not going to give anything because there's no. There's no benefit to it. Same with AJ Brown's camp. You haven't heard AJ Go on Twitter or go on Instagram demanding a trade because it would hurt his value. And he's just not that type of guy. He's the captain of the Eagles. He's one of the five captains. So he has an Eagles fan. I told you I was very bitter after the playoffs, those three drops. But now the cooler heads have prevailed. No, I don't want to move AJ I want to have him and Devonte Smith, they're really good receivers. So, yeah, this off season, it's all about the clicks. It's the dead part of the year. So to me, Eagles fans like me, we get mad, we get riled up. We're gonna click on stuff to read it to see if there's any truth to any of it. But someone that again, is in the business and talks to people, it's like everyone I talk to is just like, no, it's not going to happen, at least not until June. So, yeah, if you're New England radio, rate New England Patriots radio, you need something to talk about for three months, right? So A.J. brown coming to your hopeful team, I think it makes perfect sense. But I'm sure you're as a fan of the Bears, if you're here every week that Caleb Williams is on the trading block, you'd just be like, this is stupid. So that's wrong.
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B
Well, you know what's funny is when I, I did, I didn't think I was teeing you up to get angry about media and give a media critique. I actually was thinking something entirely different, which is that's the kind of aura and respect and respect and mysticism that surrounds Howie at this point. He's been such a brilliant GM and such a master of manipulating the cap and building a roster that even when he's saying one thing about a star player, and I know this has been an ongoing drama, so there is interest in it, that becomes news is like he's reached the levels of GM where everyone expects him to figure something out that will make his team better and pull a rabbit out of the hat in ways that other, other GMs just can't do that. That to me, what was. Was interesting to me, that was the signal to me about the story, not a media critique, that there's just nothing else to do. So they're going to make noise about Howie.
- [04:55]
A
I don't get it. Like, to me, there is a ton of drama. You brought up the referee drama. There is a lot of stuff to talk about. That's why I don't get why they keep getting a dead horse. But they have to get clicks. Obviously they're getting clicks. That's why they keep talking about it. So to me, this is, as someone's a football fan, this is like one of the best weeks because you get a lot of interviews with coaches, owners. It's a great week if you're a football nut like me and you want to hear people talk who don't really talk. So, you know, you literally had Sean McVeigh, who hadn't talked about that two point conversion against Seattle, literally talking, you know, about it with the head coach at Seattle. And it's like, this is the best. These two guys don't like each other in the same division. They haven't talked at all. And now they're talking about a two point play that is decided, potentially the super bowl winner. So, yeah, these winter meetings, I know people poo poo them. I love it. Like, I can't get enough and I'm all into all the drum. I'm reading everything I can because it's a really interesting time and you know, there's a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes. So, yeah, 18 game schedule, replacement refs. Chad, there's, there's a lot going on right now in the NFL if you're a fan of it. And obviously the draft, what we're about to talk about, which is the best two, three weeks, it's here, people. So, yeah, time is, time is moving pretty quick here in the off season.
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B
Let's freaking do it because we're going to talk about the draft with the help of a very special guest, a grizzled veteran over at Betting Pros, co host of the very popular fantasy Pros football podcast right here on the Volume Podcast Network. If you're not listening to that, you might be the only person because that show does massive, massive numbers. Most importantly, absolute fanatic, fanatic about betting the NFL draft and all of the trials and tribulations that come with betting the NFL draft. Not like, you know, who's the best offensive lineman who graded out at the combine on the second day of workouts. I mean, betting the NFL draft where the opportunities. Welcome to the show. Derek Brown.
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C
Guys, thank you all for having me. And I'm sitting here in the green room and I'm just nodding my head at all the, how we talk and all these kind of stuff. And I'm giving Simon the business on the Eagles before we. But I have to be honest here, outside of giving him crap about stuff, I do have a signed Jalen Hurts jersey on my wall in my office for a large sum of money that I won betting Eagles and things like that. So I will come come clean here.
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B
Well, you know what, we appreciate that and we appreciate you. You're. You're agnostic when it comes to winning because clearly that's what matters in the end. But here's something else, what people don't know, and this to me is fascinating, before you were doing any of this media stuff, you were working as a pediatric nurse at St. Jude's in Louisiana. That feels like it's really her job to do. And then how do you make that transition?
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Oh, guys.
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C
A lot of part time work. A lot of time where I never thought this would be a reality, where currently I'm sitting in gym shorts and we're talking about football, how I provide money for my family. Long hard road fought guys, where you're doing anything and all things just to get your takes in front of eyes. And then at the end of the day when you end up doing this for a job, you're like, really? Anybody cares about what I gotta say? Okay, cool, let's rock it. Let's rock it. So it's, it's been a long, winding road, but yes, from the medical streets to football, 24, seven. Really. I mean, it's been one of those things where it was a hobby and a passion and I feel blessed to do it every day.
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B
What was it like being a pediatric nurse?
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C
Oh man, you talk about things that were incredibly rewarding and something. When I got into that field, I thought I was going to do it until they rolled me off of the hospital floor in a wheelchair. I thought I was going to do that until I was 60 or 70 or something. Loved it with every ounce of my being, especially with the population of kids that I got the chance to be a part of. These kids and these families lives for multiple years, you get close with people and you get invested and it really means something. So a lot of respect to everybody in the medical field.
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B
Yeah. It's so random. It's so random that you're on the show today. Yesterday one of our neighbors came over in the morning and her and my wife were Going to take the dogs for a walk. And we started talking about the medical field. Her husband is in the medical field. And about people who, which is not us, People who are like so warm and loving. Like they, they just have to be so selfless, right? And she started talking about how, like, when her kids were born, the nurses who were so warm and happy and excited that these babies were born and they weren't their babies, they were never going to see these kids again. But, like, you could tell, like the genuine thrill they were getting just being in the room and being able to take care of these kids. That's. Who's doing that. That's you, Derek Brown.
- [10:19]
C
It's one of those things with nursing. People really say, you know, there's a lot of fields in the world where you get into it because you love what you do and you believe in what you're doing. And it's not about money. It's not about all these different things because if you did, if you did it with that being the onus of why you're doing it, then you wouldn't be doing it. So it's one of those things you truly. At the end of the day, I got into it and one of the things that translates over to this field and talking about football is whether we're trying to make people better in one way, shape, form or fashion, or trying to educate people. I wanted to do things with my life where I felt at the end of the day, I was helping people in some way. In some way.
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B
Well, listen, welcome to the dark side where we're generally mercenaries and care about nothing other than winning and ourselves and the people that can help us win today. Derrick Brown, that is you. Before we get into it, like, for the uninitiated, the NFL draft, a totally unique betting event. Volatile, unpredictable, roller coaster for betters. More so than fans even. Like, from your point of view, how has. And Simon, you too. How's betting the draft changed since legalization? Because there have definitely been like big, big changes. The volume of markets, the timing and availability, the availability of those markets, the odds and the pricing. Both of you. Derek, let's start with you. Give us your sense of the changes that have been taking place.
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C
I mean, the first few years we got this. And I've been betting the NFL draft for the last four years, covering the league full time for the last six and how you've seen the market shrink and you really have to be strategic in bets. Like, one of my best years in betting, the NFL draft was the year that Jayden Daniels came out and that quarterback class, having him as my QB1 I was able to make a lot of money early with betting him as being like the second overall pick and kind of forecasting that versus the market and leveraging where I was versus that with information and what have you. And you just, you don't get as much of that now where you don't get lines that are dropping for the NFL draft as early as they did before. And a lot of that is obviously the books wised up after a few years. Like okay, we're not, we're not dropping this stuff as early as we did before because that didn't work out well. So a lot of the things you're speaking about like the volume of bets that you're able to make even right now versus what you're able to do a week before the draft and depending on, you know, you get more players out there in drafting positions and different ways that you can bet it. It's definitely changed over the last three to four years where it's gotten more constricted. You have less books or some books that are pulling back because obviously they've probably just taken a bath for the first few years of it.
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B
Yeah, I mean Simon, you and I have talked about this a couple times and we go back. Our favorite betting story is you having to sweat will Mac Jones go third or lower in the draft and you were heavy on him going lower because of intel you were getting despite what the reporting was. But these markets like a lot has changed even in the five years since Mac Jones was drafted.
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Yeah, I would say the worst part is what, you know, what we're talking about here. They just, the first couple years they just wanted to be the first ones out their lines. Right. You saw the wind totals this year. Right. Books are putting it out as soon as they can because they want that first initial wave. They want that first action compared to the other books because most people aren't going to make one or two of those bets.
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C
Right.
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A
And then you're done until said drafter until opening season. Right. So it's change in the sense they're not so quick to get that money because they have been crushed and it is way tighter and to me it makes me hyper focused on certain lines where I really do just play into the quarterbacks. To me that's the easiest way for me to get info. I, you know, am pretty locked in with a lot of teams and not like a lot of people in the business. And especially for that bet, the draft like, that's their, that's their thing, right? People that really lean in the draft and bet props during the football season, the draft is a whole nother season for them, right? They really get into it. It's come even harder now to make money doing it, especially in clean markets. So, yeah, to me, you know, you already know my position. I took a heavy one on Mendoza and that was tough. Where it's like to get 50k down, you know, I'm having to use a lot of different people, different amounts of money getting limited going, going in person. You're having to go every day or every time they switch the counter people, which means I have to have a guy sit at the books like, hey, she just rotated out. If you want to come in, it's a new person at the counter. If you want to come bet it again, a lot of that just to get maybe five hundred or thousand dollars down. Chad, like, it's a ton of work for such a limited amount. Where I joke at the Super Bowl, I could go in there that morning and bet if you wanted to, a million dollars on the side and they're happy to take it. So that's the tough part. It's so hard to get. Maximize your profits and your money on the draft. But I love it because it is so much hearsay. And like Chad said that those certain drafts where I'm getting info and the media is totally wrong and I can capitalize on that. And I always say I'll give it on the show. As long as I'm getting my money in and getting the right number, I'm happy to give it out to people. But that's honestly getting tougher as we get. We keep moving along here. Like, teams are getting tighter. That old wave, they are kind of leaving the league now. And this you new younger wave, they are very much tighter. Don't leak as much stuff. And you know, I'm. I told you, Chad, my biggest fear is always getting the, the head fake, right? Someone giving me bad info, costing me a lot of money. So the draft, I, I can tell you I try to be more patient. And you know, like Derek here, I, I want to hear from smart people that are betting it a lot. Like, I want to hear people what they're taking position because if I like something and he says he likes it too, maybe I'll hit it again. Like, that's what I'm looking for. I want to hear other people's thoughts. And if he says something, I disagree with it. I'm not going to Just shun his opinion. I'm going to re look at my position and be like, oh, I'm misreading this totally. I remember, I think it was a Freeman we had last year. He was saying how the quarterbacks, you know, we're going to drop in the draft and you know, we could get dart in the first round. He wasn't going to be a second rounder. Sure enough, you went, what a 20, Chad. So that's the info you're looking for. You want to hear people who have a good read on it. The media has a wrong read up and you can get huge value. So yeah, it's, it's tight lines, people. Like if you want to get bets down, as soon as we talk about it and you hear it here, you kind of want to bet it. You don't want to wait because stuff can move. Huge, huge movement. Like we've seen sometimes 10 rounds or 10 picks, I should say, in live movement. So it's, it's really fun. It's a fluctuating market. That's why I love betting it.
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B
Well, look, you just said something really interesting, which is the way information is being communicated is changing. Derek, I wonder from your point of view, even in the past few years that you've been betting the draft and enjoying betting the draft, are you seeing draft strategy change in how teams are approaching the draft and if so, what does that mean for betters?
- [17:33]
C
I think you've seen how. And some of this goes into just the free market. I mean, let's go to the biggest piece of news of relevancy over the last few weeks. The massive contract that JSN has gotten and what the wide receiver market. I think that has been huge. You look over the last, like since so 2016-2019, no more than four wide receivers were selected in any one of those years. And in two of those years, only two wide receivers went in the first round. And the reason I'm hyper focusing on the first round is because if people are trying to get action on the NFL draft, that's really where you're talking about. It is the first round. You don't get a lot of other action out there where it's like you can bet guys in the second and the third or where they go and pick positions and stuff. We are hyper focused on the first round and what teams are doing. And some of this is the market economics of paying these players 40, $50 million contracts. So wide receivers since 2020, those last six years, no fewer than four have been taken in Every first round of the draft. And in five of the. Or, excuse me, four of those years, at least five guys have gone. Two years they had six guys and one year, seven wide receivers drafted. And so looking at that, yeah, the NFL is telling us, okay, we want to get in early and we want to get these guys on rookie contracts and want to be like. Because the other part about all this is a lot of these talented players aren't hitting the free agency market where teams are locking up some of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And I mean, we're dropping bets here live and stuff. I mean, right now you can get over five and a half wide receivers at plus 185 plus money at some books.
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A
Yeah.
- [19:07]
C
In this economy of wide receivers, I'm taking that. And the other thing I'll throw in here is you're seeing more teams draft offensive tackles specifically. Like, we can go in. A lot of the markets are just offensive linemen in general. But when you want to dial down just to the offensive tackles and then zoom out larger to the offensive line market, there's money to be made. Because over the last two years, eight tackles, not even counting, like, centers, guys switching to guard and stuff, guys that were projected as tackles over the last two years, eight of them have been taken and back to back years. And now you can get the line. Last time I looked was at seven, seven and a half. Yeah, both of those give me the overs. Because history is showing in a lot of these markets. And again, going back to the economics of the NFL, Tyra Linderbaum, like other interior offensive linemen, when they look at the franchise tags, are getting bucketed into getting paid like tackles. And some guys at the top of their position are getting paid like tackles. And it's changing the economics and what teams are focusing on in the draft.
- [20:08]
B
All right, those are two great points. Let's do a quick message from Hard Rock because I got an important question for you, Derek, coming out of that. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet, Florida's sportsbook. The biggest weekend in college basketball is almost here. Semifinals are set. International champion is just days away from cutting down the net. Now's the time to step your game up with daily dance and boosts on Hard Rock Bet. You'll get a live profit boost and a parlay profit boost for the games. More ways to shoot your shot, more ways to cash in with boosted odds when the stakes are at their highest. Plus, Hard Rock Bet is handing out $25 bonus bets if A team you bet to win or cover hits a buzzer beater because when the lights are brightest and every shot matters even more. If you haven't joined Hard Rock Bet yet, now is the time to check in the game. New signups can double their winnings on their first 10 bets, max $50. That means if you would have won 100 bucks on your first bet, now it's 200. So don't sit on the bench. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today and get the party started. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana, if you or some you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it in Ohio, call 1-800-my reset gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee or Virginia. All right, so you just dropped two great facts about bets. You want to make over five and a half receivers over on offensive tackles specifically. And you're doing it based on what past history and how some of these players are now getting paid. How much do you lean into when you're doing your research on those kind of metrics and that kind of information versus what you're hearing in the marketplace and studying and sort of trying to glean from rumors and innuendo?
- [22:29]
C
I think you're trying to paint the most complete picture you can with all of that and a lot of this going back to a previous point we were discussing is right now I'm not going to say we're in lying season, but we're in the board time where we're seeing a lot of, I'm not going to say pundits, but media, the media consortium pushing up certain players. A lot of this intel is coming from agents and what have you and stuff. So it's, it's a two prong approach. It's looking at market trends of what the NFL is showing us because the, the media and the NFL and everything they could talk their talk and, and now have the head coaching meeting and all that kind of stuff and things that will kind of leak out through that teams tell you what the real of it is with their moves, whether that's free agency or the NFL draft. So I think it's trying to paint a complete picture. But this also goes back to what are you, what Are you hearing, is that from a trusted source or somebody that you know in the business, in the league and what have you versus what is getting sprayed out there, you know, via the media and trying to make the most sense of it? So for me, it's trust. It's talking to people that I trust around the league as well as looking at, you know, the team needs and honestly, like the last few years of the draft. So it's, it's. I mean, I know I kind of talking on both sides of my mouth, but it's really just trying to lean on the totality of the, the overall picture.
- [23:51]
B
How do you guys know And Simon, you and I have talked about this and you just mentioned it. We all get reached out to by people in, in professional sports and we all have relationships and in situations like this, specifically around the draft, how do you know when someone's giving you a head fake and trying to use the relationship to get you, Simon, or you, Derek, to talk about it on your shows or how do you know that they're giving you real intel that is going to be actionable? Simon, you go first.
- [24:27]
A
Like you said, it's tough in the early relationship where this is my 12th or 13th season and it takes time. Especially where, you know, I didn't really know that many people in the NFL, honestly, until we did this show. And then, yeah, people come out of the woodworks and I did get burned. Sometimes you get burned though, and it's people, just like you said, they're fishing for information themselves, but at the time they're giving you good information and a minute later that's going to change for them. I am number 100 are the people you need to reach out to now and tell them the information's changed. And so sometimes I don't get reached out to. So as time's gone along and say I became friends with scouts or different people within agents on different teams as they move up, that's the best part to me because you can start trimming the fat. You don't need to talk to so many different people. If you get the guy who's three out from the GM on a certain team, I no longer need to talk to anyone else from that team. I have that guy now. I don't need 3, 4 people to message constantly. And they're using me because I might save them five phone calls. Right. If they can get information from me on different teams and hearing what I'm hearing, you know, that helps a lot. But it's also, like we said, it's a game like this whole thing with Ty Simpson, the Alabama quarterback, it's really fun for me because I knew this was coming and as soon as I gave him a second round grade, the second round grade of quarterback now is a early first round pick. Like, that's just the way the NFL has moved. Like, Jalen hurts going to the second round. If he came out now, he probably would go the end of the first. Like, that's just how it is. These quarterbacks have just been bumped down. So to me, he's got this frail build. He's one hit away from being out. And that's why it's like a guy like Purdy, we all really like. That was the knock on Purdy coming out, right? He's got a small build. Purdy's body is not really held up. He's been banged up a lot since he's come to the league. That's the same fear with this kid, right? Like, he's got a ton of tools. But then you have someone like Daniel or Laska that makes a ridiculous statement that no one that's really breaking down anything agrees with. That's why people freaked out on him, because it's like, are you doing this for the clicks? Are you involved with the agents? Someone like me? I try to always keep it 100 clean where it's like, I don't ever want to have people thinking that way with me. It's like, I don't want people to think I'm biased. I mean, I'll never forget the year we were killing the draft of, you know, how are the jets going to move up and take Zach Wilson, the number two pick? And we were getting killed for it. People coming out of the woodwork about that and it's like, that's the hardest part of this. It's like, I don't want to be killing this kid either, but me and you were on the same page of like, everything about this kid has a bus written about him. That's the same way I feel about this kit. Ty Simpson, it's like he's got a ton of upside. Chad and I'll talk to some gms that are like, dude, I don't even have this kid on my board. Like, that kid's body that ain't making it to week 10, let alone holding up for 10 years. NFL. So there's some GMs that just don't even have that kid on their board. There's other gms that. Yeah, like Dan Orlopsky. They might have him as A first round pick. I have not heard from a single person, a single person in the league chat that has him above Mendoza. So that's why it's like, yeah, I like, I see Derek shake his head too. It's. I feel like everyone in the know is just like, what a stupid statement. That's why, you know, he's getting killed in the media because I, I think me and Derek in the same lockstep. It's like, this kid is not better than Mendoza.
- [27:31]
B
Derek, before, before you get into that, because there were two answers there and the question was about how are you sort of deciphering the signals from the noise when you're talking to a lot of people around the league and trying to use that information thoughtfully. Answer that second question. Answer that question second. Give me your Ty Simpson take since that is the conversation that everyone is starting to have right now.
- [27:59]
C
Well, Ty Simpson is not a first round quarterback, has never been a first round quarterback for me. He's not even my QB2 of this class. There's a litany of other guys that we could talk about that I have ranked over Ty Simpson, I think you could point to a lot. I think the thing that's helping him is that he comes from an SEC school. Some of this is helmet scouting. So it's literally, it's the newer, different version of Kenny Pickett or Trubisky or whoever you want to talk about of previous years where small starting experience, he goes to a big program. If Ty Simpson was coming out of say Georgia Tech or Iowa or what have you, he wouldn't be getting all this buzz. So I think it's a big mess. And to the point it's like, I saw that stuff hit the news lines and I was like, okay, you can throw that out there. So it's noteworthy enough because he's Basically everybody's consensus QB2. So you don't sound totally like you're talking out your butt, but then the way that you're saying it with your chest, you can grab all the clicks and the clips and what have you. So, you know, we could have a long conversation about all the CAA stuff and if that's real or not, probably some substance. And to the second point it's kind of a do I trust you? And how far does that trust go if we don't have a previous relationship over years and years of good intel and things that I can actually put my finger on. And so some of this is, I take it with a grain of salt and if I'm Able to. I cross check it against other people that I know around the league and try to, you know, do the tin can approach. Like, have you heard this, too? Okay, so it's not just okay, cool, cool. So it's a lot of, like casting a wide net. If you're getting a lot of different sources that I trust to corroborate a lot of the same things, then I'll trust it. Versus, am I going out on a limb for somebody that reaches out to me or I have a conversation and something comes up. There's definitely a trust factor and a lot of that trust is over. Proof is in the pudding. So I trust things more from depending on the sources that I get it from and if I can cross check it at times.
- [30:13]
B
You know what's interesting about this? There's two things. Number one, this is how guys end up going higher. I remember this from when I used to cover the combine and you'd start talking to agents or coaches and they're walking around the lobby or you're seeing them at St. Elmo's or having a drink or whatever, and everyone's sort of having the same whisper campaign. You know, it's like. It's like Whisper Wednesday at the Kentucky Derby where everyone starts talking about the same horse that warmed up well, it's the same athlete that performed well and everyone is getting excited about it. And that rumor spins into fact. Number one. Go ahead.
- [30:58]
A
Well, say the key to all of it, too, is what you're saying is all it takes is one team, right? Yeah, that's the hardest part. With, like, Store Sanders, I got. I did get fed bad info last year on him where I had heard there was a team that really was like. Like, didn't like them, was going to take him the first round. It was all purely leverage for them to try to get someone to trade up for their pick. And, you know, that's the hardest part of this, where it's like I, I invested in that. That info, which was sound info, but it was like, oh, they were just playing another game on top of that game. So that's the scary part, Chad.
- [31:30]
B
Well, that's what. That's why the, the second part of this is if you are. If you are not someone who has connections to the NFL and the ability to speak to people on a regular basis and maybe suss out fact from fiction, and you're just a regular Joe betting this. You're at such a severe disadvantage because anything you're getting is so third hand and you're pulling it from the sky. And there's no way to know if it's real or not. Whereas it goes back to what Derek was talking about earlier. Looking at the past history and trying to forecast, all right, what positions are going to be the most valuable. How can someone leverage that future state now by drafting someone really well and not have to pay them for five years? That to me ends up being a much better way to try to make decisions about betting on the draft than Derek leaning into anything you might get from, you know, quote unquote sources in the NFL.
- [32:40]
A
They're giving him props. He's kind of telling you the secret sauce, right, Is if you can see the way the league is going. Yeah, follow that.
- [32:46]
B
Like he gave us the answer.
- [32:48]
A
Yeah, exactly. It's like if you think the league is going to keep drafting more running backs, and this is a good running back class, you bet the over one and a half running backs in the first round. I think we talked about last year that went from minus 120 to minus 400 by draft night. So that's what I am talking about. These lines will swing super quick because it's just not just me and Derek have this info now. Everybody that listens to our shows now have it and they've all bet it. I know those lines are racing. So that's the coolest part too is you see instant movement of this show. Like, I remember we stepped Sean on Kerner. He'd give out his props and I would watch in live time on my screen all the different websites moving their props with his bet. And it's like, that's the same thing happens in this draft. If he came on here, Derek right now and said something crazy, outlandish like, I don't know, just something insane that he's like, okay, this third quarterback, I just got word this guy's gonna be a third round pick. Now, you would see the over two and a half quarterbacks before midnight tonight, Chad, move huge. Even if it's just 50 people from our show betting it. That's how sensitive the books are. They just move off air. So that's what I keep telling people to be careful of. Do not chase the steam. You got to be ahead of it. And if you miss the wave, don't chase it later because you're going to get burned that way. And that's how you lose big on these type of units. So that would definitely be my biggest advice. Don't. Don't just chase the steam. If you're not ahead of it, you missed it. Honestly, don't, don't. Don't waste it. There's so many different ways to bet the draft.
- [34:12]
B
Derek gave us the best piece of advice that we've had about the draft since the Mac Jones heyday.
- [34:21]
C
I wanted to go back to one, I think, very sage point that you made, Chad. The intel cycle for all of this, it starts at the freaking combine, man. Some of the best stuff that I've gotten over the years has been from the rumblings and talking to people at the NFL combine, where it's like, this guy is a workout concerns. Is there this, Is there this and all the rumors. So if you're able to. Simon's point, to get into markets early with some of this intel and from sources that you trust, the information cycle starts. Then it's not the week or two before the draft or trying to follow guys and their mock drafts and who have you like of. Of the NFL consortium. And it's like, oh, well, that guy's at the end of the first round. He must be going for round one. And you don't know if. If the agents or what have you, or like, hey, can you put this guy in the back end of your first round? I mean, it makes a lot of sense. You're not going to get blasted for it, I swear, you know, So I think the. The information cycle starts even at that point of the combine where we're trying to put all the puzzle pieces together, even that early.
- [35:23]
B
Derek, I have this vision of you as a crazy big football fan in Baton Rouge on an overnight shift at St. Jude's and in between taking care of precious young human beings, you're knee deep in three ring binders that you created yourself about football. Like, just paint a picture for me of what that was like, how you managed being a caregiver and a human saint with being a, you know, crazy football fan.
- [36:01]
C
I can definitely tell you there were a lot of bets made from very infrequent bathroom breaks as a nurse. And number two, I did work a lot of night shifts. I worked night shifts for about six years, and there were a lot of bets made during my lunch break, as short as that was. So you had to be very efficient. You had to get all of everything down, whether it was betting and DFS and all that kind of stuff. I'm at 2am and I'll even harken this back to Covid times, I'm not ashamed to say. And I feel like this is a safe space, boys. It is many, many different times. Betting on Korean Baseball at 2 and 3am I have done it. I know we're not talking about Korean baseball leagues, but that has been a focus of mine very much earlier, early in the morning or late at night, however you want to approach it.
- [36:54]
B
I just love that someone who genuinely went into a field that is so selfless was still working on his bets in his downtime.
- [37:06]
C
Gotta grind that ev, man.
- [37:07]
B
You gotta, you know, gotta grind that ev. All right. Speaking of ev, pretty slim pickings right now. We've talked about how they've changed NFL draft betting and. And books don't lean into it as much because they started to get burned. A little bit of what you're seeing out there right now. You've mentioned a couple things, Derek, what else are you seeing? And for both of you, when do you expect the markets to open up a little bit more?
- [37:34]
C
You want to kick this off, Simon? You want me to take this?
- [37:37]
A
Yeah. Far away.
- [37:38]
B
All right.
- [37:39]
C
For me, I mean, there's. I'm being very calculated. Kind of like we talked about the early lines that we're getting. I think one of the most interesting markets out there right now. And I usually don't go too heavy about these in the sense of certain players to go to certain picks in the draft because again, the volatility and things can go sideways very quickly. And really, if I'm making some of these, like, selections at certain pick numbers, it has to make a lot of sense. Whether that's based off of information or again, we're seeing trends. I. I'm not making these bets at, like, especially like guys that are like minus 110 even, plus 100 plus 200. Because if, again, with the volatility, we want to lean into the leverage points and if the NFL does things that maybe because this happens every single year, one of the best spots right now is pick number two. I mean, you on some books, you're getting plus 1000, plus 1400 on Ruben Bane. Yeah, I'm wetting my whistle on some of that because you look at. Okay, everybody is mocking an edge to the jets at 2. It's Arvo Reese. It's Arvo Reese. He's the steamed up player. Look back to yesteryear and people talk about the arm length of Reuben Bain. And we can have a very long conversation about what's real and what's fiction. Considering over the last two years, the NFL has changed how they measure arms and the pro days and the Senior bowl and all the arm length stuff isn't lining up from like all these different sources. So that doesn't matter to me. Like when we go back to the Jets. Aaron Glenn was part of the Detroit Lions when they selected another highly touted edge rusher from a BIG program with 7 percentile arms in Aiden Hutchinson. And if you want to talk about just stacking up production, if I'm going to get plus 1000 plus 1400 in some spots on Ruben Bain to go second overall. Yes, please. Considering the top three defenders above him. I mean, two or three guys are like at plus 200 plus 100. Arvo Reese is at minus 230 in some spots. I'm not.
- [39:44]
A
No.
- [39:44]
C
And you can team that if you wanted to. Again, go with two sides of this coin. Arvo Reese over two and a half. So basically the books are saying he's going at 2. You can get that at plus money at some spots and not to just spray the board here, but total quarterbacks under one and a half and you can get that at plus two, 200 a little bit higher at some spots. And I'll go back to my other two previous bets I shouted out here. Wide receivers over five and a half and offensive linemen. What was the line set? Over seven and a half. You can get pretty much even money in a lot of spots. So really, if I'm getting early bets out there before, hopefully we get expansion of markets and I won't even go down the whole prediction market kind of thing. But that's another place you can lay some money and maybe you're not getting limited because again, Simon had made a very immaculate point at the beginning of this is. It's hard these streets, man. Like you're not paying off your mortgage and doing all these kind of things, making a ton of money. When books are like, you go to log in and make an NFL draft bet and they're like, oh, great, $10. Okay, well that's, that's lovely. So, yeah, you know, looking at the board, that's. That's kind of where I'm going at this moment.
- [40:53]
B
Simon, what about you?
- [40:54]
A
Yeah, it's. This is the boring time, right? Take. Either take the long shots or take the, the really juiced up lines, like over one and a half quarterbacks. I think it's minus 250, minus 225 in most books. Feels like the drama's gonna keep kicking up and one of these guys is going to leak into the end of that first round. So even if he. You don't trust the Alabama quarterback, Ty Simpson, he still might be able to make his back end work because his agents, he's doing God's work right now in Dan Orlowski. So like there's people out there in this guy's name. That's how it works. Like you just one guy needs to fall in love with it. One team needs to be even the Rams, you know, the Rams. Everyone's saying, well, Rams most likely going to take a wide receiver. Who knows, McVeigh might love this kid. Trade back in the first round. Take this kid into the first round. So you know, that's a fun bet. In a weak running back class. You know, love is the guaranteed probably most likely a top 10 pick as a running back. It's plus 550 right now over one and a half running backs in the first round. Do I really think that's going to happen? Probably not. Like it's a really weird like class where Price, another running back from Notre Dame probably is the second best running back. Could he leak into the end of the first round? The the league has shifted now. They really are these running backs now. So that's another play where it's like, okay, it's probably not going to happen, but if 5 to 1, why not throw a tenor on that, right? If you can get 50 back and even better if the odds move the plus 200 by draft night, you're ahead of the game, brother. You already got the best odds. Unlike everyone else who's now betting do not as a good align. So those are always the type of things I'm looking for. And I. I'm in total agreements by the wide receiver. But that's when I jumped out to me right away. It did open at five four and a half immediately bet up to five and a half now that's why it is plus 185 plus 180. We will see, right? Who's going to be that six guy. There's two or three guys fighting right now for that back end position. It's all about the end of the draft, right? Seattle, they don't need a receiver. They do need draft capital. They've lost a lot of guys after winning the Super Bowl. Them trading out there makes sense. New England, we've already talked about. They're in the wide receiver business. So that plays into this. Right? So those are what you're trying to. You're trying to paint your storyline. You're making these bets as well. And that I love that Derek gave that one out. Like that's a fun bet at a plus number now a couple weeks ahead, right? So you're not going to burn yourself betting on -120 a -250 like I just gave out for the over the quarterbacks, you can take these plus number of bets you have and if you just hit 1 out of 3, 1 out of 4 and it's at a crazy good number, you're up on the draft and that's at the end of the day. That's the goal. Like you're watching. Have fun. We all want to make a profit here. So that's, that's the key here is I'm not going to force any bets here. If I'm going to use something out, it's something I'm truly betting that I think is good at, especially at a plus number.
- [43:26]
C
To your point too, you can hedge that and just take both sides of it. You're getting like minus 110 at the under. You can. If you're getting plus 200 like I've seen a plus 200 plus 250 for the, for the under one and a half quarterbacks, you're probably making money either way too. So I mean you can really hedge your bets that way. And to your point about the running backs, there are so many teams the end of the first round that I think are trade back candidates to where if you want to see a team, if it's not Jadarian Price. The other thing that we know that the NFL overvalue not overvalues, but they double count is speed. So Mike Washington going out there and running a freaking 4 3. I'm not telling you he's been a first round pick. But if a team were to double count speed, it wouldn't be the first time. We don't need Al Davis still alive and kicking to sit here and for a team to double count speed so it could happen.
- [44:13]
B
Listen to bring it full circle. I just got an alert from ESPN that Mike Vrabel is talking about the A.J. brown rumors at the owner's meeting. Derek Brown, what a freaking gift you are. That is just outstanding. Thanks for coming on the show, man. That was great. Fantasy pros football podcast talking to NFL draft. It's a great show. It's a huge show. It's a, it's a brotherhood show in the Volume Podcast network. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback as a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [45:05]
C
The New York jets select tight end from Penn State State, Kyle Brady. Obvious to me right now that the
- [45:13]
A
jets just don't understand what the draft's all about. This is an iHeart podcast.
- [45:22]
B
Guaranteed Human.