The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sharp or Square: Academy Awards Betting Preview with Michael Lasker

Date: March 13, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of “Sharp or Square” dives deep into the upcoming 98th Academy Awards, blending film industry insight and betting strategy. Host Chad Gnome and professional bettor Simon Hunter are joined by Oscar savant and Hollywood manager Michael Lasker for an annual tradition: an Oscars betting preview. The trio dissects the major categories, analyzes favorites and underdogs, debates the year’s notable films and performances, and shares insider tips on making the smartest Oscar bets—whether at home pools or with sportsbooks. The episode is loaded with rich film commentary, sharp gambling takes, and a healthy dose of movie trivia.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Nostalgia and Movie Reappraisal

• Hoosiers Revisited: Simon starts with a hot take, reflecting on classic American sports movies from the 80s, suggesting that “Hoosiers” doesn't hold up and actually promoted retrograde coaching norms.
  • Quote: “I think it sent coaching back about 30 years in American culture because this was such a cult classic.” — Simon (02:31)
• Chad counters by sharing how he leveraged “Hoosiers” for motivational purposes at ESPN, while conceding, “That wouldn’t hold up today. Completely agree.” (04:39)
• This segues into a discussion of how movies—from “Vision Quest” to “Breaking Away”—age, and how the Oscars often reflect those changing tastes.

2. State of the Oscars and the Movie Industry

• Michael Lasker lauds the 2025 movie year, calling it “objectively…an amazing year for movies.” (06:50)
• He reflects on the expanded 10 Best Picture nominations, seeing value in a year with a “diversity of nominees.”
• Lasker throws cold water on the idea of making big money from betting the Oscars online, saying “There’s more money in the Oscar pool inside your living room than there is online,” due to the abundance of precursor awards (07:45).

3. Oscar Pop Trivia with Lasker

• Chad peppers Michael with tough Oscar trivia—demonstrating Lasker’s encyclopedic recall (10:05).
  • 1982 Best Actor: “Ben Kingsley for Gandhi. Best picture was Gandhi. Best director was Richard Attenborough for Gandhi. Best actress was Meryl Streep for Sophie's Choice…” — Michael Lasker (10:14)

4. Best Picture Race: Favorites vs. Surprises

• The conversation centers on what’s become a two-horse race:
  • One Battle After Another vs. Sinners (the latter, a vampire genre film).
• Simon, a vampire movie buff, critiques Sinners:
  • Quote: “… as a vampire movie … it was a movie that the ending kind of fell on its face for me … Would never in a million years you could have gave me 1001 odds that it would even be nominated the Oscars.” — Simon (13:10)
• Lasker unpacks Sinners’ appeal:
  • It’s more than just a genre film; Coogler crafts a “new take on a vampire movie,” with layers addressing both the African American experience and Irish immigrant hardship (15:05).
  • On why it resonated: “It became greater than the sum of its parts.” — Michael Lasker (17:17)

Best Picture Betting Angles

• Chad notes: “The favorites to win ... are both films that were tremendously commercially successful—and usually that's a knock on them winning.” (25:00)
• Hamnet is praised for Jesse Buckley's performance but is described as “a hard, hard watch.” (25:40)
• Lasker’s Best Picture Prediction:
  • “Does One Battle After Another win the Oscar?” — Chad
  • “Yeah, I think it will ... as of now I have One Battle winning six and Sinners winning four.” — Michael (26:27)
  • Lasker details technical categories (editing, cinematography) that could act as indicators for upsets (27:17).

5. Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan’s Big Moment

• As betting odds shift, Michael B. Jordan emerges as the favorite for Best Actor in Sinners after playing dual roles. Early long-shot odds on Jordan paid off for savvy bettors.
  • “You can still get [Michael B. Jordan] ... plus a thousand, plus 2,000 at certain books. … Now, minus 150, it’s moving to him being the favorite.” — Simon (31:19)
• Lasker calls it “the one category on Sunday where, like, I will not be surprised by anybody [winning].” (31:49)
• Discussion of the Academy’s tendency to “make phenoms wait”—noting that Timothée Chalamet, for example, at age 30 already has three nominations, and may get passed over in favor of Michael B., who’s getting older and has “grown up” before the Academy.

6. Best Actress & Tough Performances

• Hamnet and Jesse Buckley are widely regarded as locks, with the “weight” of Buckley’s performance outstripping rivals like Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You). Chad describes watching the climactic scene through tears, literally hiding under the covers (25:40).
  • “I've heard it was amazing,” says Chad, about the harrowing death scene (45:30).
• Michael Lasker shares behind-the-scenes details—Buckley’s impactful, unscripted take in that crucial scene—which heightened the movie's intensity (46:43).

7. Best Supporting Actress: The Wide-Open “Funky” Category

• Analysis focuses on Amy Madigan in Weapons (the villain/veteran narrative) versus Yona Taylor in One Battle (the breakout).
• Lasker explains the Oscars’ tradition of recognizing careers and unexpected performances in supporting categories (50:53).
  • “I would bet Amy. … She's probably not getting nominated again. … Tiana, … has a lot in front of her. … It's a great race. I would lean towards Amy, though.” — Michael Lasker (53:41)
• Reference to “funky” past Oscar wins in these categories (e.g., Marisa Tomei, Whoopi Goldberg, Heath Ledger).

8. Meta-Oscar/Narrative Talk

• Lasker emphasizes that Oscars are as much about the right “narrative” as they are about performance: “You have to think about what's the narrative the next day and what is the narrative in the voters’ minds.” (28:01)
• Discussion of career rewards with Paul Thomas Anderson (PTA) predicted to finally take home Best Director and Adapted Screenplay after decades of nominations (28:27).

9. Film Criticism: Marty Supreme and Others

• Chad vents disappointment with Marty Supreme: “I just didn't think it was that good of a movie. I thought it was self-indulgent. I thought it was too long.” (34:57)
• Lasker agrees to a degree: “The movie hinges on two big, big moments... that didn’t entirely work for me.” (36:11)

10. Oscar Trivia & Film Lore

• Throughout the episode, Chad and Simon toss Lasker pop quizzes on past nominees and winners, which he aces with encyclopedic certainty.
  • Example: “1994 Supporting Actress: Diane Wiest for Bullets Over Broadway.” — Michael (48:34)
  • “2002 Best Picture: Chicago. The other nominees: The Pianist, Gangs of New York, The Hours, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.” (54:39)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Oscar Betting:

  • "There's more money in the Oscar pool inside your living room than there is online." — Michael Lasker (07:45)

• On Genre Movies Getting Recognition:

  • “When Hollywood makes a big movie that feels like it’s for all the masses and it doesn’t feel like it’s homework…and it starts to elevate, that’s when Hollywood really takes notice.” — Michael Lasker (13:10)

• On Emotional Viewing:

  • “When the kid is dying, it’s so painful. I was under my covers … I was crying hysterically. My wife had to leave the room … This is terrible.” — Chad Gnome on Hamnet (25:40)

• On The Oscars as Narratives:

  • “You have to think about what's the narrative the next day and what is the narrative in the voters’ minds.” — Michael Lasker (28:01)

• On Michael B. Jordan's Chance:

  • “Michael B. played both parts … By him not talking a lot, he’s kind of been doing the right thing, right? Going about his business…I feel like you’re giving out a sneaky pick here.” — Simon Hunter (30:07)

• On Supporting Categories:

  • “The supporting actor and actress categories are where the Oscars can get, like, a little funky.” — Michael Lasker (51:15)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Oscar Tradition/Sports Nostalgia: 02:17–05:37
• Introduction of Michael Lasker: 06:40
• State of Movies & Expanding Nominee Fields: 06:50–08:36
• Oscar Betting vs. Sports Betting: 08:36–09:55
• Pop Trivia (1982 Oscars): 10:05–10:43
• Best Picture Deep Dive: Sinners vs. One Battle: 11:09–18:00
• Genre Respectability & Cultural Commentary: 13:10–17:31
• PTA’s Rise and Movie Narratives: 17:31–23:16
• Betting Angles & Oscar Narratives: 26:24–30:16
• Best Actor Analysis: 30:16–34:57
• Marty Supreme Critique: 34:57–39:30
• Best Actress/Supporting Actress Breakdowns: 42:55–54:08
• Oscar Pop Quiz (1994, 2002): 48:13–56:08

Betting & Strategy Takeaways

• Best Picture: The consensus is One Battle After Another will win, especially given the PTA narrative and the Academy’s historic pattern of long-awaited recognition, but Sinners is a plausible upset (26:24, 28:27).
• Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan’s surge to favorite status suggests a betting opportunity, with Timothée Chalamet as the only serious challenger—savvy bettors who grabbed Jordan at long odds will profit (30:16–31:49).
• Best Actress: Jesse Buckley is a near-lock for Hamnet, with Rose Byrne as a remote spoiler (42:55–45:30).
• Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan (Weapons) holds a small but real edge over Yona Taylor, with the supporting categories always ripe for surprises (50:53–53:41).
• General Oscar Pool Advice: Focus on narrative, late surges, and strategic parlay bets; the award season’s precursor awards make upsets rare, but supporting races provide better value (07:45, 31:32).

Tone & Style

The conversation is lively, self-deprecating, and alternates between irreverent banter, film geekery, and serious strategic analysis. Michael Lasker brings authoritative, inside-Hollywood insights; Chad and Simon provide gambling expertise and fan perspective, keeping things engaging for sports bettors and movie buffs alike.

For Listeners: The Major Takeaways

• Expect One Battle After Another to take Best Picture and key technicals, with Sinners poised for major wins but likely just short.
• Michael B. Jordan’s dual performance is the Best Actor narrative to watch for.
• Jesse Buckley’s emotionally raw performance in Hamnet is a probable lock.
• Amy Madigan could upset in Supporting Actress—classic Oscar “lifetime achievement” logic.
• If betting, pay attention to the shifting narratives and late category “hinge” wins as tells early in the night.
• Oscar betting is best leveraged in pools—even the pro gamblers agree.
• The Academy often rewards “body of work” and a compelling story as much as a single performance.

For more Oscar talk and sharp betting analysis, tune in next week for March Madness picks and NFL win totals!